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December 13, 2024 • 17 mins
JJ Stankevitz and Casey Vallier look at the impact of the potential returns of wide receiver Josh Downs and center Ryan Kelly for Sunday's showdown against the Denver Broncos, which is defined by massive playoff implications with either a win or a loss. The guys also look at a few key matchups and a possible blueprint for a Colts win on Sunday.

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Speaker 1 (00:06):
What's up everyone? Welcome into another episode of the Two
Minute Drill podcast presented by Nerd Wallet. I'm JJ Stankobitz,
joined today by my man Casey Valier, talking a little
last minute updates of Week fifteen. A big game, massive
massive the Colts against the Denver Broncos. Case the Colts
playoff odds with a win or at sixty six percent.

(00:27):
With a loss, they dropped to nine percent. I can't
think of a game in Week fifteen that's had like
these implications when there are still three more games to
play after this one.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
That's one thing that we were kind of talking about
this week is it's late in the season, but it's
still early when you think about what the playoff odds
really are. And yeah, I mean, ultimately, the winner of
this game more than likely is going to be a
playoff team.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
I mean, I know, I think that's probably fair.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
It's probably fair to say, and it's wild to think
that after this game there's still three more games for
both teams. So that is it is kind of a
wild thing to think you're this late in the season
but you're still that early in the playoff push. Yeah,
I mean, it's a crazy predicament Denver.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
After they play the Colts, they got a gauntlet is
they got at the Chargers on Thursday Night football, So
that's four days after this game, they go to the Bengals,
who I know they're five and eight, but they you know,
they got a top five offense. Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, Yeah,
look right, yeah, I mean they can beat anyone on
any night. Their defense might be Swiss cheese, but like
they're a good, dangerous football team. Then you end the

(01:24):
season with the Kansas City Chiefs, who may or may
not have something to play for in that game. The Colts, meanwhile,
they face teams that have double digit losses down the stretch.
I think that's why these odds swings so significantly. Taking
into account, the Broncos still would have a one game
lead on the Colts, right, but if the Colts win
this game, all they have to do is tie the
Broncos record, and with their remaining schedule home against the Titans,

(01:45):
on the road against the Giants, home against the Jags,
you feel pretty good about those odds.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
And all three of those teams have been mathematically eliminated
from playoff contention, So that is when you look at
you know, strength of schedule. The rest of the way,
you definitely favor that Colt schedule. So that's why in
this game is just massive, Like you can beat around
the bush and say, oh well, there's still a road
or a path you can find. The easiest way to
do it is to get a victory on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
Yeah, I mean. And the other thing too is if
the Texans lose to the Dolphins, they don't have an
easy schedule down the stretching, I'd.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Get real questionable there in the AFC South. For sure.

Speaker 1 (02:16):
They go to Kansas City on December twenty first, and
then they host the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas four days later,
and then they end the season at Tennessee. And I
know Tennessee is kind of limping to the finish, but
that's a Titans team that ended the jag season last year. Absolutely,
so you know that that is a you would much
rather get those divisional opponents at home, like the Colts
have right on the road, because as we've seen, you

(02:37):
go on the road in Week eighteen against a team
you think you should beat that's in your division, sometimes
it doesn't go your way.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
It's kind of crazy when you look at the way
the schedule has worked out, because early on we talked
about Man all of these road you had that gauntlet
where it was you were on the road for essentially
the entire month of October and it was all your
road divisional games. And now you kind of look at
the end of the season, it's like, kind of nice
to have that late by, even though we were all
talking about Man such a late bye, late bye some
home games to close. Not a bad way to kind

(03:04):
of wrap things up, for sure.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
But it all comes down to this game in Denver.
If the Colts lose this game, like you mentioned, case,
there is a path, but it is not one that
you want to follow that it's very complicated. It's one
that you know we'll get there if we have to
get there, right. But let's hope the Colts can win
this game, and let's talk about some guys who might
be back for this game, starting with Josh Downs. Shane

(03:26):
Stikeen would not say on Friday, as we're recording this,
he wouldn't totally commit to Downs playing, but he said
he looks good.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Downs was a full participant in practice on Thursday. Due
to the shoulder injury that kept him out of Week thirteen.
If the Colts do get Josh Downs back case, that's
Anthony Richardson's favorite target right going into this game against.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
It without a doubt. I mean, Josh Downs, he just
he does so many things that you don't realize until
he's out and then you're like, that's where we miss him.
You miss him there, you miss him there. So that
is one of the things that getting Josh Downs you
talk about a security blanket. It's so key, especially because
we have seen kind of the development since Anthony Richardson
was reinserted back into the lineup of you know, kind

(04:07):
of hitting those layups if you will, and Josh Downs
is probably the king of the layups because her like
I always love third down, third and you know third
and manageable. Where is Josh Downs Because he's probably gonna
be the guy it's gonna be a git to that
first down and those are what are gonna be so
key in this game because we've talked about it all year.
Time of possession and all of that. So being able
to sustain drives offensively and Josh Downs does that better

(04:29):
than anybody else on this team.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
I think I think he just kind of unlocks the
entire passing game for the Colts as well, because you
think about how Alec Pearson, Michael Pittman Junior, your primary
outside guy's kind of playoff downs, Yeah, where Downs is
the guy who can he can separate against man coverage
if you try to do that in the slot against him,
or he he knows exactly how to find space within
his zone out of the slot. Having said that, Aleck

(04:54):
then becomes your your downfield threat and your guy can
maybe win on kind of like a deep over route
where he can just kind of u his speed to
separate from a corner. Pitts the guy who's a sort
of your slasher, yeah, where you know, if he gets
a quarter yard a separation on a slant or a dig,
he can make a play. But it all kind of
comes together because of Josh Downs. And I think that,
you know, as we look back on that Patriots game

(05:15):
that maybe it was a little bit uneven at times
with the passing game. Having Downs in there and kind
of pushing everyone into a different role in terms of
the pass catching pecking order. I think is so valuable
going against a Broncos team that's gonna play a ton
of man coverage. You got Pats or Tan out there,
whoever he's covering, he's going to take him away. And
that's no selec to whoever, whether it's Alec, whether it's

(05:38):
ok whether it's Ady Mitchell. That is because for my money,
Pats or Tan's the best corner in the NFL. He's
gonna take him away. But if you have Josh Downs
out there, all of a sudden, okay, you got some
more options out there. And I think it just brings
it all together.

Speaker 2 (05:49):
And I mean we mentioned it earlier, the late bye.
It kind of gave him a couple of weeks and
we've talked about how important this game. It's kind of
nice that you were able to get the victory against
New England. He had two additional weeks. When we talked
to him in the locker room this week, he said
that the week against the Patriots was kind of his
by spy, which he can't really do much. So he
kind of ramped things up last week. And you know,

(06:10):
we talked to him on Wednesday Thursday and he said
he should be good to go. So he thinks he's
a little more confident than what we were able to
hear from, you know, on Friday, But ultimately that's one
of the things that you've gotten two weeks of Josh
Down's healing up, and you just unleash him because he
is so vital to this offense.

Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, check the Friday injury report when that comes out.
We're recording this before the final injury report comes out,
but that'll be out usually about four o'clock on Friday,
so you can check to see if he is a
questionable designation or if he doesn't have a designation that
means he is good to go. Or let's talk about
two guys who are on injured reserve but return to
practice this week. That would be center Ryan Kelly and
linebacker Jalen Carlis case on those two guys, Kelly was

(06:50):
limited on Wednesday and Thursday. Carlives was full. Yes, so
maybe a little more question if Kelly's gonna play versus
car Lives. Tanner Borderlini was also full. It looks like
he's gonna be good to go. So if Kelly can't play,
you would have Bordolini in there. But if Ryan Kelly plays,
I think this would be huge because you're going into

(07:12):
the most hostile atmosphere you're going into all season in Denver,
you get a December game. I was just talking to
Eric Dealala, the Broncos team reporter, and he said, in Denver,
they're talking about this is the biggest Broncos game since
Super Bowl fifty.

Speaker 2 (07:25):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (07:25):
Okay, because of the implications of it, because Denver hasn't
been to the playoffs since y yeah, and so you
know that atmosphere in Denver is going to be electric,
it's gonna be loud, it's gonna be tough. And having
a veteran center, especially against a team that loves the
blitz right in the Denver Broncos, I think having a
veteran back there would really behoove this offense. Now, having

(07:46):
said that, if Ryan Kelly isn't ready to play, you
can't just say, all right, hey man, you got to
get out there, Like, if he's not ready, he can't play.
But if there's a shot that you can get Ryan
Kelly back for this week, I just I think that's
so important for what you can do in terms of
diagnosing what Denver's doing, keeping a cool head against that
Vance Joseph defense in that kind of environment.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Absolutely, I mean that is one of the things that
you don't realize what all a sinner does in some
like you know, the average football fan maybe, but he
is so vital to when you talk about diagnosing a defense,
keeping everybody kind of on that, you know, right, I mean,
he's the leader of that line, right. Ryan Kelly has
done such a wonderful job for so long. I mean,

(08:26):
that's a reason why when you constantly see the Colts
offensive line to start, Ryan Kelly has just been a
staple and he has been such a good player for
this Colts team. And he will help Anthony Richardson in
that kind of scenario because I mean, when you talk
about the depth or the veterans on this team, it
really isn't that veteran Leyden team, you know, And and

(08:47):
Ryan Kelly brings that. This is a guy who has
played in playoff games, He's played in these types of environments,
so that definitely will help in that. And you talk
about this this Broncos thing, one of the things I
didn't didn't realize until this week is that they have
at a sellout at home every week since nineteen seventy. Yeah,
so you talk about a big game, they're already coming

(09:08):
when it's not you know, these biggest games. So you
put all this playoffs, you're out in the NFL, and
they still show up. So yeah, yeah, yeah it's gonna
be it's gonna be a raucous environment. If people have
talked about the altitude, all of that's gonna play into it.
But if you can get Ryan Kelly back, I mean,
he's just one of those guys that you just to
feel very very calm about what that offensive line is
gonna do because it is gonna keep everybody right there
where they should be.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
Having said that, Tendor Borderline's having a really good seals
He's been great, Yes, So like I don't want to
diminish what he can do from a you know, a
physical standpoint in there. From a mental standpoint, he is
playing really good football. But I again, I just I
lean toward give me the guy who's the longest ten
year member of the Colts, if he can play at
center making a big impact in this game.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
No, exactly, not a not a stab at Borderline at
all or same with I mean, you gotta tip your
cat started a great game.

Speaker 1 (09:51):
Yeah, like relative to expectations, Man Dandy Pinter had a
awesome game.

Speaker 2 (09:56):
Against I mean you have, it's been very impressive what
this this whole staff. Give them a massive pat on
the back for what they've done with this offensive line
because it's been kind of a revolving door all season long,
and you really haven't missed a beat they have put
in guy, I mean Mackinsoalvez has played so well as
a rookie.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
Tanner Ward probably he's gonna go on Sunday as well. Right,
Brandon Smith's out, YEP.

Speaker 2 (10:18):
It has been impressive to see what this rookie group
has done because they have come in for big shoes
to fill, and they've done.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
A really good job at linebacker with Jail and Carlies.
I'm curious if he comes back, if he's gonna start,
or he's gonna be kind of that you know, you're
kind of third linebacker, or if it's still gonna be
Grant Stewart. I think Stewart's played pretty good football. Yeah,
he's been especially against the run, he's been really solid.
So something to keep an eye on there as we
go forward. And then the other guy who is out

(10:46):
for this game is wide receiver Ashton Duel and we
mentioned Braden Smith will not play. No, Ashton Dulan. You
lose a you know, kind of a core special teamer there,
and a guy who provides good depth a wide receiver.
But you know, for the most part, though, Cayse the
Colts getting healthy there as the season has gone on,
and that that is not something you can take for
granted at this point in the NFL calendar.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
No, not at all. I mean, if you think about
the guys that have been hurt throughout the year, you know,
you got a guy like Taekwon Lewis back a couple
of weeks ago. You had DeForest Buckner who was on
IR at one point he has been back, and ultimately
since all of that has happened, it's really been a
healthy bunch. So that's where I've kind of looked at
this bye week as a bit of a blessing where
you anticipate, you know, you want the bye week earlier

(11:28):
just because you know, you want to make sure you're
you're rested up and gear it up for all these
but ultimately where it came, it's kind of been best
case scenario because you mentioned the health, you have been healthy,
so this is more of a week to you know,
really rest up and you got that you know, final
four game, a final four push to really just hone
in on everything you need to do and you're already healthy.

(11:48):
So it's been a very big positive for this team.
And I mean if you're able to get you know,
we mentioned it there with Ryan Kelly and and Jalen Carlis,
because Carlis also gives you another special teams guy that's
had you know, like a good amount of run early
in his career. So that's one thing that it's going
to be very beneficial for this team starting to get
really back to that full depth of what you saw
at the beginning of the year.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
There are only two guys on the Broncos injury report,
safety Brandon Jones, but then cornerback Rilly Moss. I want
to talk about him here because he's had a really
solid season, but you felt him not being on the
field against the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. He's
the other outside corner opposite Patrick Certan, and Cleveland went
after Levi Wallace in that game. It looks like if

(12:31):
Riley Moss can't play, Chris Abrams drained the rookie from
the Zoo is going to play on the outside that's
a spot though that if Riley Moss ultimately does not play,
whoever you got lined up against that other cornerback to me,
that's a matchup the Colts are going to try to
exploit right from the start of this game.

Speaker 2 (12:48):
Yeah, that's one thing that when you dive into the numbers,
you look at the Broncos overall, and they've been a
really really good defense, really good, but then you look
at what happened against a three and ten Browns team
that's kind of been in flux. I mean offensively, it's
a you know, one week they look good, the next
day don't, which is kind of the jamis Winston ef
you're getting seen, But man, that was that was a

(13:09):
complete explorer delivered me from pick six. I mean, what
a quote, but I mean yeah, I mean he throws
for almost five hundred yards and you have a couple
of pick sixes and you lose a game. But it
is wild because you kind of, I don't know necessarily
if you can, you know, follow that same game plan
because you know, the Broncos know what happened as well,
But I think it might give you an idea on

(13:30):
ways to attack a defense that throughout the entire season
had been a really good one. So that is what
I take the most from that that last outing against
the against the Browns was it's given you an area
where you can attack, and especially if Roddy Moss can't go.
I mean, Levi Wallace has been a pretty good corner
in this league for a long time. But clearly you

(13:50):
know that that you know, Age sometimes is undefeated, and
that's maybe we're getting close to that spot where you
know he maybe has lost a step here or there.
I don't know much about Chris Abrams Drain. I remember
his name being mentioned in the draft par he.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
Was kind of the second guy to Ennis Reichstraw, who
was a second round pick the Lions. You know, but
a guy who is a good player but is untested,
you know, like a guy who you're gonna try to
if if he's out there on the field, he's the
guy you're gonna go at. You're not going at Patrick's
ertel in this game. All right. One last thing here

(14:22):
case that I'm curious about, is like, what is the
blueprint for beating the Broncos, because lately the last two
losses Denver has had were to Kansas City, where you
just get Patrick Mahomes devil magic to win that game,
and then you get blown out by the Ravens on
the road where Lamar Jackson Derrek Henry kind of you know,
powered that. So you have two of the best players

(14:43):
of their position in the NFL. The one I'm looking
at here is in Week six, the Los Angeles Chargers
beat the Broncos twenty three to sixteen, and it you know,
you look at it, and okay, Justin Herbert was twenty
one to thirty four for two thirty seven. Yeah, he
was Okay. The ground, they averaged three point four yards
per carry, but La ran it thirty eight times. Yeah,

(15:04):
in this game, JK Dobbins in ninety six yards on
twenty five carries, and they just said, we're gonna run
it at you, and that's what we're gonna do. I
wonder if this is going to be kind of a
similar type game plan for the Colts offense. Hey, we're
just we're gonna run it, and we're gonna run it,
and we're gonna run it. Now, the Colts defense has
not been as good as the Chargers defense this year,
so you might have a bit of a different game script.

(15:24):
But I think looking at this, LA did get a
little bit of success running the football in this game.
Can that be something the Colts go back and look
at and say, Okay, let's try to pull some stuff
from this game and apply it in Week fifteen.

Speaker 2 (15:36):
That's kind of what I think. There's there's a part
of me that we've all been waiting for that dynamic
backfield of Taylor and Richardson, and I mean, you know,
by all accounts last the last time out the Colts,
you know, maybe their yards per carry wasn't where it
should have been, but they definitely utilized the run a
lot more in that game against the Patriots. So I'm
assuming you're gonna see more of that. I think Josh

(15:58):
Downs adds a different pack to the offense, allowing you
to do a little bit more of both of those.
But I would agree with you, I think the running game, Yes,
this Denver's rush defense has been very, very stingy, and
they're they're they're pretty good. But I do think that's
an area this Colts team's gonna have to highlight because ultimately,
you know, we could talk about this guy, that guy,
Jonathan Taylor is one of your best players on this
football team. Yep, he's in. These are big moments. You

(16:21):
want your best players playing their best in these big moments.
So I think Jonathan Taylor offensively is gonna have to
be a guy that helps guide you to a victory.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
Absolutely great points to their case. There you go, all right,
that's gonna do it for us here on this episode
of the two minut Drill Podcast presented by Nerd Wallet.
We'll be back next week before the Colts face the
Tennessee Titans. Thanks for listening. I'll be back with Bill
Brooks late Sunday night early Monday morning for a breakdown
of the Colts and Broncos on instant reaction for my man,
Casey Valley, Amjjes Tankobitz. Thanks for listening to this episode

(16:51):
of the two minut Drill Podcast presented by Nerd Wallett.
Talk to you next week. So long,
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