July 14, 2021 • 29 mins
Matt & Dale take a look at Football Outsiders' Encyclopedia for 2021.
Hardest Schedules & Win Totals (:30) DVOA Rankings (10:30)
Hardest Schedules & Win Totals (:30) DVOA Rankings (10:30)
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
At least. He's The Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt
Williamson on Home of the Black and Gold Steelers Nation Radio.
Welcome back to the Drive. I'm Dale Lolly here with
(00:26):
Matt Williamson and Matt The Football Outsiders Football Almanac is
out out next Monday. We'll have Aaron Schatz, the editor
of Football Outsiders. Uh, yes, almanac on. But I did
want to talk about a couple of things that were
in this Uh. They had their full one projections for
each team. And I love the almanac. It's like Christmas
(00:47):
Morning for me. When I wanted to go over some
of these things, I wanted to go over win totals
and their their dv oh A projections for this year.
Um so in terms of average its wins. Uh. Their
leader in the clubhouses Tampa Bay at eleven point one,
totally understand it. They got Baltimore number two at ten
(01:08):
points really high on Baltimore, Kansas City three at ten
point five, Buffalo third at ten point two. New England
up next at nine point eight. Now the reason for
that is if you look at New England's schedule, uh,
it's thirty second. I say, it's pretty easy. Yeah, and
(01:28):
there's different metrics for you know, judging scheduled strength and
and and they are projections. You don't know how good
these teams are gona be Week ten when you face
them and you know, as their quarterback will be heard
or you know the coach would be fired by then
or whatever, or you can play them on a Wednesday
after COVID hits. I mean, there's crazy things that happened,
but you still gotta take that stuff in the consideration.
And football Side has been doing this a long time
(01:49):
and they're pretty don good at projecting win totals. UH
Seattle and San Francisco tied next from nine point seven
wins each. Sam Franz another one has a very easy
schedule by a lot of these match UH. New Orleans
comes in at nine point five. I don't know. I
don't know if I trust that. I don't know that
I do either, but I do think it's interesting that
you've mentioned Seattle, New England, New Orleans, and Baltimore, and
(02:15):
that maybe exceeds some of our expectations because my point
is those coaches, and I think Tomlin's obviously on that
tier too, where those coaches have won a lot of
games in this league, they're gonna be in the Hall
of Fame or in the conversation. I wouldn't sleep on
the Saints just because of Peyton and they're a fragile
roster build because boy, they they've had a lot of
(02:38):
let a lot of people go because of their cap constraints,
and strangely, their last two drafts they've only picked like
four guys any draft, right, I mean, they're all in.
Dallas is next at nine point two, but maybe you're
picking that division. No, I'm picking Washington Torn I mean,
their defense is almost in that conver station. Like we
(03:00):
had last segment about like Brown's D. Steelers line just
don't stink D. But I'm not sure that they won't
stink on D. They might really. Uh, Minnesota comes in
at nine point one, as do the Rams. I think
Minnesota's a sneaky bet to win that division right now.
I mean, if Rogers doesn't come back, I think they're
easily they're easily, right, I don't know if he's coming back.
(03:23):
Miami then comes in at nine pot. Oh, oh, that's
a little I would bet the under on that. Yeah,
Denver at eight point eight, tie with the Steelers at
eight point eight. I respect what Denver has and they
could be a little bit. They play EASi according to
football outsiders, so it's an easy scutter hard there. We
(03:47):
often talk about the Bucks last year with just give
me a quarterback that doesn't turn it over a million times.
Their turnovers last year were the worst in the league
by a really long shot. But Teddy Bridgewater is not
the guy. Well he won't turn it over. Here's the thing.
I saw a stat on him where they had the
(04:08):
football down a touchdown or less seven times last year
when he was with the Panthers in the fourth quarters
gone and they won none of them. He is, he's
got for us. I mean we've said this many many tings.
Won't take any chances, doesn't take any chances. But I
do think that roster with a defensive minded coach and
Munchak and weapons could get the eight ish wins by
(04:31):
not screwing it up. But can they get higher than eight?
And it's not going to get you into the playoffs.
And I'm im sure Bridge wins the job. The other thing,
but it really sums up Bridgewater is if you look
at his record versus the spread in his career, he's
a great guy to bet on because every game he's
a dog because the quarterback of their side better. But
(04:52):
he keeps it close just enough to not win. You
know what I mean. He doesn't beat you. He doesn't
win the game for you, and you need your quarterback
to win the game exactly. Yeah, if it's Teddy plus five,
well he gets he loses by four, you win your bed.
As I mentioned, the Steelers come in at eight point
eight wins as well. Okay, that's thirteenth best in the league.
(05:15):
I think that's higher than their Vegas it's definitely, and
that's what the Steelers having. According to Football Outside, there's
the number two schedule and everybody says it's most difficult.
Everybody says that they have the hardest schedule. They have
the Bears with the hardest schedule, and they measure dv
O warn sharp as the Raiders at one and the
Steelers at two. It's a tough it's a tough sled.
I mean, it hurts more now than it did a
(05:38):
year ago. To be the first place team. You know,
you're get one more extra game of first placed opponents.
Indianapolis comes into eight point seven. Sounds about right. Cleveland
at eight point six, which everybody's all over the Browns
this year except for the Except for a lot of
the analytics people Football Outsiders doesn't think it's closed between
(06:00):
leveling in Baltimore. No, Um, you know they had some
issues last year. Uh, we'll go over with all the
d v o A rankings here in a little bit,
once I get through all the wind totals. I mean,
the Browns were outscored last year. They gave about more
points than they scored last year. It's a big indicator.
Las Vegas at eight point two, I'm taking under on that.
(06:22):
Tennessee at eight point two. They're of all little team
as well, but it could go well. Washington at eight
point one, Okay, I think there's I don't dis like
your call about them win in the division. Arizona at
seven point nine. I think this might be Kingsbury's last year.
Cincinnati it's seven point five. That's really high. That's high
for them. Yeah, it is the Giants at seven point four, okay, Chicago,
(06:47):
the Chargers in Philadelphia all at seven point three. You
don't think of those teams all on the same No,
you don't see those guys lumped together at all. And
Chicago is the playoff team last year. Detroit at seven
point two. Food, I'll go under that. Caroline at seven
point one, Yeah, it's probably about right. Atlanta at seven
point one. They were one of those teams. They were
(07:09):
real big on Pythagoran win theorys and stuff like that too.
Atlanta was the team that should have won. They played
well enough to win seven games last year, and they
end up winning four or five or whatever. They lost
a lot of close ones and hurt themselves a lot too.
Jacksonville seven point oh could they win that division? What
if when stinks and Henry gets hurt? Both the things
(07:32):
that are very possible. I don't see. Still don't see.
But I still think the Colts roster is good enough
to get them enough. Maybe it's only eight wins. Somebody
they get in eight nine. But I don't see how
Jacksonville wins seven games, to be honest with you, the
defense is pretty bad and it's just such a work
(07:53):
in progress. I say that they have the thirty first
easiest schedule. I know they have an easy schedule, but
Houston comes in at six point seven. I'm going under
on that they play the easiest schedule, and and they
don't get to play themselves. Think about how easy that
schedule is. I mean they played a last place schedule.
I get it, but they don't have any time. That's
a crazy thing. And then the Jets are six point one.
So the last three teams on this list, Jacksonville, Houston,
(08:14):
and the Jets are thirty one and in tv O
a schedule and they don't play themselves, and they don't
play themselves, they play each other. They play. Yeah, it
goes back to first place versus last place. Schedule means
a little more now than it used to um to
make the playoffs of Steelers have a forty six percent
chance according to I've been a lot of people across
(08:35):
this country doesn't agree with that. It doesn't seem like
it to win this to reach to reach the super Bowl.
A six point to chance percent chance to reach the
super Bowl. That's high. Far better than Cleveland, is it?
That's better than Denver. Let's go okay, So Tampa Bay
is at twenty two point six percent, Baltimore at eighteen
point eight percent, k C at seventeen point two, Buffalo
(08:59):
at thirteen point one, New England at nine point nine.
I don't buy that. At all either, I'm sorry, yea.
Even if they get into the playoffs because they have
the thirty second easiest schedule, then you have to play
good teams. Yeah, and it kind of comes back to
our Ravens conversation too, is can that version of the
Patriots come from behind and throw the wide receivers that
(09:20):
gets the Chiefs? You know they're gonna play a certain way. Yeah,
Seattle's at ten point, San Francisco's at eight point seven,
Green Bay's eleven point eight, New Orleans nine point oh uh,
Dallas is seven point four, Minnesota seven point three, the
Rams seven point oh the Ram and then the Steelers
(09:41):
are next, ahead of Miami, who they projected more wins
in them, ahead of Denver, who they have projected to
win more games. And I wonder how they do that,
how they come up with those percentages of Super Bowl
verse wins. And you know, they give the Steelers a
two point nine chance to win the Super Bowl. Mom
(10:01):
So people saying that the Steelers have no chance a
Roethlisberger there, you know, why are they doing this? That's why?
I mean, I'm sure it's there, but they're also there's
also a percentage that they could get a lottery pick two,
I mean first pick overall, Like I know, that's one
of the things they do with They also talked about
how bad teams can be too, because they were they
(10:23):
were in like a million simulations and there's a chance
they could end up picking first or thirty second. I
mean there's a chance. Um total d v o A.
This is how good your team is right now on paper. Steelers,
I think they were clearly the number one defense then
and the Rams were. One is Tampa Bay at twenty
(10:45):
I get it. Two is Baltimore. Three is I'm not
betting on Tampa Bay to when the Super Bowl to back. Yeah,
they got through pretty I'm not gonna say good injury free,
but pretty injury free. Last year. They got kind of
lucky through the playoffs too. Two they got to play,
including that version of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Yeah. Uh.
(11:05):
Casey was third at fifteen point five. Uh, Buffalo was
I'm sorry. No, Green Bay is fourth at thirteen point
nine to win the Super Bowls. No, this is ther
d b o A ranking total overall team ranking Uh.
Fifth is Buffalo six with Seattle at eleven point one.
Seven at eight point six is New Orleans. They like
(11:29):
New Orleans more than I would have guessed. I'm excited
to read that chapter. Eight is San Francisco at eight
point two. I actually wonder if New Orleans when I
read that chapter, I bet there's gonna be something along
the lines of they might be better at quarterback than
they were last year. Brees was not very good, and
he was not very good. I'm not saying Jameis is great,
but it could be one of those editions. By subtractions.
(11:50):
Nine is the Rams at seven point one, Ten is
the Vikings at seven point oh. Eleven is New England
at six point five. Yet they had New England is
with the fifth most wins because of that, because that
easy schedule. Twelve is Dallas at five point oh and
then the Steelers at four point nine. There's not a
(12:12):
big difference, not a big deal. Not a big difference
there between Let's say once you get down to seven ish. Yeah,
seven was in New Orleans at eight point six, and
the Steelers are there at four point nine. At thirteen
not a projected playoff ish teams. Fourteen is Miami at
(12:34):
two point to the difference there is that Miami plays
the twenty six hardest schedule Steelers have two. They're projecting
the Steelers be better football team by two point seven. Yeah. Uh,
same thing with Who's fifteen. Fifteen is Cleveland, but Cleveland
plays the eighth best schedule. They play the eighth toughest schedule. Oe.
(12:59):
UM sixteen is actually Denver at point two. Okay, so
their average their average. But they again they project them
with the same wind total as the Steelers. We'll see
offensive dv o A. They're projecting Casey is number one.
They have. The number two offense is Green Bay yea Rogers. Yeah,
(13:24):
I mean I assume they're just gonna asterix that and
say with Rogers, three is Tampa Bay. Four at Seattle, Wow,
I don't know if I agree with that. Yeah, five
is Baltimore. I don't know if I agree with that.
They got to make a pretty big jump to get
to there this year because last year, Uh, their offensive
d v o A Baltimore was ninth. No, it's defense
(13:47):
they were eleven. So the Ravens chapter is pretty favorable
for them. That I just summer it up as football
Siders likes Lamar more than most people do. Just put
it that way. Um, they have them as with the
tenth hardest schedule, by the way, and the whole divisions
got road. Uh. Six is Minnesota HM seven offense offense,
(14:13):
yeahs for play. Last year on offense was really high.
Seven is Cleveland. I don't know if I see that.
Who do you think has a better offense? Cleveland Baltimore.
I mean there's similar styles. Well, Cleveland was ninth in
offensive d v o A last year in Baltimore was eleventh.
So yeah, and one thing about Cleveland, you gotta remember
(14:34):
they played three awful weather games, really bad ones, so
it's a little harder, and they played games their first
two meetings with the Ravens and Steelers, they got crushed.
They scored thirteen points combined. And they also benefited though
from Week seventeen to playing against the team that wasn't
really trying to win. Eight Dallas, their offense is pretty
(14:57):
ring good. I would take Dallas's offensive over anyone in
our division division without question. I mean, if Tyron Smith
and Zach Martins stay healthy, that could be number one.
Nine is the Rams. I would take the Rams offense
over higher than Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland. Ten is Tennessee. Maybe
(15:18):
they've got three stars yeah, potentially eleven Buffalo. I put
Buffalo pretty high too. Yeah, i'd have Buffalo. Maybe Overland, Yeah,
they were top five last year. Twelve Las Vegas. I'm
not buying that, not really. I'm not gonna go through
(15:38):
the mall. But they hit the Steelers going the twenty
one best offense in the league this year. They were
twenty two last year. I think the offense was better
than last year. And I'm not just say so. As well.
The radio station we're on the running game has to
be better. Yeah, that's at minus four overall zero's average.
Uh so minus four. They were minus four point seven
(15:58):
last year. Who were like the ones, slightly above, slightly below,
uh slightly above them. Twenty two is Indianapolis? Yeah, twenty
is it's not a real ring endorsement. New England. Yeah,
I think I'll take the Steelers offense over the Patriots.
(16:18):
Nineteen is Denver. Take the Steelers offense over Denver? Would
kidding me? Like, I'm just curious, Like I know, perception
across the national media of Ben isn't great right now?
Eighteens Detroit. What if Ben were a Bronco, they'd be
a Super Bowl contender. I think I think they're ten
(16:39):
and a half, you know what I mean. I'm not
saying Ben's a savior, but I mean better than what
they defensive d v o A Steelers are number one. Yeah,
they're only minus nine point oh so last year they
were number they were number two and two to the Rams.
I think, no, last year they were number one minus
(17:00):
twenty point two, minus twenty point two. New Orleans was
second at minus nineteen. So I mean they're they're being pretty.
Projections are hard because you don't get the average of
the best in the worst. You don't pick teams to
be sixteen and one. Even Tampa Tampa Bay's average win
average wins comes out to eleven point one in seventeen
(17:22):
games schedule. There will be someone will be better than that.
Three to four teams this year that win more than
eleven games. Of course, of course that's just the way
it works. There'll be there'll be three to four teams.
The lowest win total in the league is six point one,
and there's gonna be there's gonna be three or four
teams below that number one, five or lapt right, there
always is. I think the way it works, and by
no means of my a math major, But it goes
(17:44):
back to when you simulate ten thousand a million games,
you get closer and closer to eight and eight or
eight and nine, nine and eight. You know that'll be
just because fifteen and ones are hard, but they still
happen year and the year. It's kind of like the
baseball analogy, like I win your baseball games, you're a
stud team, where if you win six your football games,
(18:05):
that might not get you in the playoffs, right because
a smaller example size. Uh so they're one San Francisco's
number two actually defensive or defensive d v o A. Yeah,
minus seven point eight. Steelers are minus nine point oh
get Nickolsa back and some good things there, but I
don't think they're in a legal that's a pretty big
Like the number one offense offensive was it was too
(18:30):
Casey was one of offenses. They were one at number
one at twenty point one. Number two was Baltimore at
seven teen point six. So it's a little bit bigger.
That's a little bit bigger spread than the Steelers defense
over San Francisco's defense. But then you look down the line.
Number three is New Orleans at minus seven point four.
(18:50):
Who was to last year, right, Yeah. Number Number four
is uh Buffalo and minus seven point one. Number five
is five is New England at minus six point five.
I think it's a good D. I think it's a
deep D that isn't star studded. But you bring high
(19:11):
tower back and j gets a year older, and I
think they'll be sixteen deep with good players. Depends on
what happens with the cornerback situation though. Is he gonna
be there hold out? Yeah? But Jackson is not bad,
and you know there's the guy that makes that go though.
Because UH six is Tampa Bay defense seven is Washington,
(19:37):
I might put them on. They might be higher than that.
We'll see. I still don't love the linebackers, but I
might put a buck on Jamie Davis to win Rookie
of the Year behind that line. Eight Baltimore, it's good,
it's not great to me. Nine is Now we're talking
ABU football outsiders. I think I sent this to you
when I read the Ravens section. They have some remarkable
(19:59):
streak of having top ten d v o a s
over like the last fifteen years or something crazy. The
defense and special teams they're like been the best over
a long stretch, not necessarily top five, but like top ten.
Denver's nine in defense, uh, not perfectly fine with that.
Ten is Chicago. Yeah they have some holes though. Yeah,
(20:22):
this is where Cleveland really They were very bad last
year and they're gonna have like nine new starters on defense,
six in defensive d B O A. I mean, I
bet it's better than that. But here's the thing. I
don't know if their offense is going to be seventh.
I think it's worse than that. They're both closer to
the average. So if they're tenth in offense in two
(20:47):
in defense, are they a good and five teams? I
don't think so. Division winner? Um the key too, and
we mentioned this before. It's raven like, is the defense's
to keep them close, Like I don't know if they're
down ten on the road against the Titans or whomever,
that the Browns are gonna storm back because they can't
stop it and Baker turns all over in those The
(21:09):
thirty second rated defense according to them is Tennessee. Wow.
And they've done a lot. They've like rebuilt their whole
past defense. It was bad to last year and the
worst pass rushing team in the league last year. The
only team ahead of the Steelers on this UH with
the defense outside of the top six team, which would
be midway through, is k C at two. The only
(21:34):
offenses on the list that rank i'm looking here outside
the top sixteen according to them, Well there's there's four. Actually,
one would be the Steelers at one, the Colts Denver
at nineteen, in New England at twenty. Okay, so if
(21:54):
you're gonna if that's where this ends up at, you
better be really good on defense. And the Steelers are,
according to this really good on defense. Yeah yeah, I
mean they would certainly be in the top three for
me ranking defenses right now, I would lean towards Washington one. UH.
Special teams rankings, this is a part of the team
d v o A as well. Number one is New England.
(22:17):
They're also that's another Football Outsiders historic note is Baltimore
and New England are the only teams that are consistently
near the top. Number two is Baltimore. Three. Um, I'm
not seeing three on here. I got Pittsburgh's decent. Three
is Cincinnati. They were then, Really that's one thing has
(22:39):
done really well since he's been there. That nobody, of
course notices but they've always been near the top of
the league. Four is Detroit shows you a little bit
how much special teams it does matter. But it's not
that I know how football outsiders does it is. They
look at it like it's a ten cut pizza. Five
cuts are offense. Four cuts it's eight, it's eight. It's
(23:00):
because it's four and three four, three and one. Yeah,
I know. One cut is special teams, Yeah, which is important,
but there's a lot of variants with that too. The
Steelers come in at that at sixteen, I think, yeah,
I think they have a good special teams coach. They've
been higher than that in three of the last four years. Yeah,
I mean more so than some teams. They'll keep five
(23:20):
core special teamers too, you know what I mean, and
upgrade the year that they didn't finish in the top
six team when they returned, yeah, what the Boswell was
awful and they didn't return their kick returns. We're just awful.
And I think they have a returner. Now they've got
a returner. Boswell's Boswell and especially you'll see what happens
with the punning. But people that complain about Danny Smith,
(23:43):
you know, that's another one of those positions like corner
or left tackle. You do remember the bad things, you know,
like special teams. Coach is a thankless joan um. Looking
at some of these other top teams, Tampa Bay number
one in the league, the special team on special teams,
uh Baltimore too, Casey is five, Buffalo is fifteen. Casey
(24:04):
has been pretty good over the years, Seattle ten, San
Francisco three, Green Bay is thirty one. I think they
were really bad on special teams last year from what
I remember, New Orleans sixth. You wouldn't think that would
be the case with New Orleans because they're so top
heavy and they don't you know, I was thinking that too,
like who are the backup linebackers and safeties that are
(24:24):
good players that would playing for? Yeah, Dallas, iste, Minnesota,
Minnesota and Green Bay. Your top two teams in the
NFC Central bad special team, bad special teams, the Rams
twenty nine. They're usually high to they usually do a
lot of trickery, and you know, Hecker throws balls and
(24:46):
Miami's nineteen, Denver six. I mean that could be a reason,
you know, if you're looking at oh, yeah, it's different,
I could get that wins or loses you a game.
I mean it goes back to the Ravens and Patriots.
I mean one of the Harborn Belichick's staples are being
great in that phase. And maybe it's not a big
percentage of games, but you do it year after year,
(25:08):
your win percentage goes up. Uh, Cleveland is twenty seconds.
So the Browns, according to these Divo A projections seventh
on offense, twenty six on defense, twenty two and special teams.
That does not add up to the division winning team. Again,
reading that Browns chapter, I don't have it in front
of me, but I'm almost certain they had unbelievably good
(25:29):
field gold luck. You know where opponent kickers just missed.
You know, that doesn't mean you're great at Russian the kicker.
You know you're lucky, you know something. That's where they play,
probably right right, I mean, but but still, yeah, it
still helps. Looking at those schedules, who mentioned that Chicago
had the hardest schedule at number one, the Steelers number two,
number three, is surprised me. Chicago's number one. Their division
(25:53):
is not that hard and they're not a first place.
You know, they gotta play green Bay in Minnesota, which
is no you know, Picnic Green Bay comes in three,
so the North must play somebody. NC West. Four is Detroit,
so there you go. Yeah, yeah that division five they
must play at the NFC West and probably the f
(26:14):
C Nor. The Steelers don't play that team. Did that
group to that? I should know that, I thought, my heaven, Yeah,
yeah they do, they yeah, they do. So that's probably
the hardest divisions to play if you're the NFC North. Yeah.
Fifth is Cincinnati. The six games in their divisions really
rough on them. Six is the Rams. Seven is Minnesota.
(26:34):
So that whole division. As as hard as the schedule
is for the a f C North, the NFC North
has it even harder. Makes me think the chances are
one NFC North team goes the playoffs. Cleveland's at eighty
nine is the Chargers. Everybody's darling and this is another
darling team that all they're gonna make this big jump
this year where they get a tough schedule. I think
(26:56):
they're better than Denver and Oakland Vegas though what they
play a tougher sketch. Yeah. Uh. Ten is Baltimore. Yeah,
both the North divisions have top roads. Washington's eleven. So
with the Arizona at twelve, at the bottom end of
that scale. We mentioned that thirty two was New England. Yeah,
(27:18):
they've been historically hit the bottom of that list, always,
always uh. And then we'll I mean, we'll see Miami's
getting better. Buffalo is Buffalo. It's not that they're a
dog against Buffalo. Yeah, thirty is uh Tampa Bay. I
guess their division is not that scary. Their favorite at
(27:38):
least in four of those games, and probably six twenty
nine Buffalo hight is Houston. Wow. Still I don't know,
are they gonna be a favorite in any game? I mean,
if Jacksonville were in Houston in Week one, what's the
spread the pick them? Yeah, I think I take the Jags.
(27:59):
Seven is Denver? Twenty six is Miami? So interesting stuff though, Yeah,
all that stuff matters. And again the Steelers mean victory
average wins eight point eight. That would be the second
most in the division behind bat ahead of Cleveland, who
is everybody's Oh, everybody's slick pick. The Browns have a
forty two point eight percent chance to make the playoffs,
(28:20):
according to Football Outside, There's a five percent chance to
reach the Super Bowl, a two point two percent chance
to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers better than them
on both of those fronts as well. I mean, nine
and eight might kick you in the postseason, probably will
for somebody. Probably, I bet the seventh team has probably
not been getting into some tiebreakers and things of that nature.
But can't be eight. Can't be tired at eight and
(28:41):
eight anymore. No, I kind of like that point. Yeah,
seventeenth game. I think it's cool that way. Yeah, so
interesting stuff, Jim. We'll have Aaron Shafts on to talk
about all this next Monday. Tune in for that. Yeah,
I can't wait for that. But that's gonna do it
for this show. So for my partner Matt Williamson, for
Kellen Girski here on site keeping us on the air,
I'm Dale Lally. We thank you for listening to this
(29:03):
edition of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio.
At least. He's The Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt
Williamson on Home of the Black and Gold Steelers Nation Radio.
Welcome back to the Drive. I'm Dale Lolly here with
(00:26):
Matt Williamson and Matt The Football Outsiders Football Almanac is
out out next Monday. We'll have Aaron Schatz, the editor
of Football Outsiders. Uh, yes, almanac on. But I did
want to talk about a couple of things that were
in this Uh. They had their full one projections for
each team. And I love the almanac. It's like Christmas
(00:47):
Morning for me. When I wanted to go over some
of these things, I wanted to go over win totals
and their their dv oh A projections for this year.
Um so in terms of average its wins. Uh. Their
leader in the clubhouses Tampa Bay at eleven point one,
totally understand it. They got Baltimore number two at ten
(01:08):
points really high on Baltimore, Kansas City three at ten
point five, Buffalo third at ten point two. New England
up next at nine point eight. Now the reason for
that is if you look at New England's schedule, uh,
it's thirty second. I say, it's pretty easy. Yeah, and
(01:28):
there's different metrics for you know, judging scheduled strength and
and and they are projections. You don't know how good
these teams are gona be Week ten when you face
them and you know, as their quarterback will be heard
or you know the coach would be fired by then
or whatever, or you can play them on a Wednesday
after COVID hits. I mean, there's crazy things that happened,
but you still gotta take that stuff in the consideration.
And football Side has been doing this a long time
(01:49):
and they're pretty don good at projecting win totals. UH
Seattle and San Francisco tied next from nine point seven
wins each. Sam Franz another one has a very easy
schedule by a lot of these match UH. New Orleans
comes in at nine point five. I don't know. I
don't know if I trust that. I don't know that
I do either, but I do think it's interesting that
you've mentioned Seattle, New England, New Orleans, and Baltimore, and
(02:15):
that maybe exceeds some of our expectations because my point
is those coaches, and I think Tomlin's obviously on that
tier too, where those coaches have won a lot of
games in this league, they're gonna be in the Hall
of Fame or in the conversation. I wouldn't sleep on
the Saints just because of Peyton and they're a fragile
roster build because boy, they they've had a lot of
(02:38):
let a lot of people go because of their cap constraints,
and strangely, their last two drafts they've only picked like
four guys any draft, right, I mean, they're all in.
Dallas is next at nine point two, but maybe you're
picking that division. No, I'm picking Washington Torn I mean,
their defense is almost in that conver station. Like we
(03:00):
had last segment about like Brown's D. Steelers line just
don't stink D. But I'm not sure that they won't
stink on D. They might really. Uh, Minnesota comes in
at nine point one, as do the Rams. I think
Minnesota's a sneaky bet to win that division right now.
I mean, if Rogers doesn't come back, I think they're
easily they're easily, right, I don't know if he's coming back.
(03:23):
Miami then comes in at nine pot. Oh, oh, that's
a little I would bet the under on that. Yeah,
Denver at eight point eight, tie with the Steelers at
eight point eight. I respect what Denver has and they
could be a little bit. They play EASi according to
football outsiders, so it's an easy scutter hard there. We
(03:47):
often talk about the Bucks last year with just give
me a quarterback that doesn't turn it over a million times.
Their turnovers last year were the worst in the league
by a really long shot. But Teddy Bridgewater is not
the guy. Well he won't turn it over. Here's the thing.
I saw a stat on him where they had the
(04:08):
football down a touchdown or less seven times last year
when he was with the Panthers in the fourth quarters
gone and they won none of them. He is, he's
got for us. I mean we've said this many many tings.
Won't take any chances, doesn't take any chances. But I
do think that roster with a defensive minded coach and
Munchak and weapons could get the eight ish wins by
(04:31):
not screwing it up. But can they get higher than eight?
And it's not going to get you into the playoffs.
And I'm im sure Bridge wins the job. The other thing,
but it really sums up Bridgewater is if you look
at his record versus the spread in his career, he's
a great guy to bet on because every game he's
a dog because the quarterback of their side better. But
(04:52):
he keeps it close just enough to not win. You
know what I mean. He doesn't beat you. He doesn't
win the game for you, and you need your quarterback
to win the game exactly. Yeah, if it's Teddy plus five,
well he gets he loses by four, you win your bed.
As I mentioned, the Steelers come in at eight point
eight wins as well. Okay, that's thirteenth best in the league.
(05:15):
I think that's higher than their Vegas it's definitely, and
that's what the Steelers having. According to Football Outside, there's
the number two schedule and everybody says it's most difficult.
Everybody says that they have the hardest schedule. They have
the Bears with the hardest schedule, and they measure dv
O warn sharp as the Raiders at one and the
Steelers at two. It's a tough it's a tough sled.
I mean, it hurts more now than it did a
(05:38):
year ago. To be the first place team. You know,
you're get one more extra game of first placed opponents.
Indianapolis comes into eight point seven. Sounds about right. Cleveland
at eight point six, which everybody's all over the Browns
this year except for the Except for a lot of
the analytics people Football Outsiders doesn't think it's closed between
(06:00):
leveling in Baltimore. No, Um, you know they had some
issues last year. Uh, we'll go over with all the
d v o A rankings here in a little bit,
once I get through all the wind totals. I mean,
the Browns were outscored last year. They gave about more
points than they scored last year. It's a big indicator.
Las Vegas at eight point two, I'm taking under on that.
(06:22):
Tennessee at eight point two. They're of all little team
as well, but it could go well. Washington at eight
point one, Okay, I think there's I don't dis like
your call about them win in the division. Arizona at
seven point nine. I think this might be Kingsbury's last year.
Cincinnati it's seven point five. That's really high. That's high
for them. Yeah, it is the Giants at seven point four, okay, Chicago,
(06:47):
the Chargers in Philadelphia all at seven point three. You
don't think of those teams all on the same No,
you don't see those guys lumped together at all. And
Chicago is the playoff team last year. Detroit at seven
point two. Food, I'll go under that. Caroline at seven
point one, Yeah, it's probably about right. Atlanta at seven
point one. They were one of those teams. They were
(07:09):
real big on Pythagoran win theorys and stuff like that too.
Atlanta was the team that should have won. They played
well enough to win seven games last year, and they
end up winning four or five or whatever. They lost
a lot of close ones and hurt themselves a lot too.
Jacksonville seven point oh could they win that division? What
if when stinks and Henry gets hurt? Both the things
(07:32):
that are very possible. I don't see. Still don't see.
But I still think the Colts roster is good enough
to get them enough. Maybe it's only eight wins. Somebody
they get in eight nine. But I don't see how
Jacksonville wins seven games, to be honest with you, the
defense is pretty bad and it's just such a work
(07:53):
in progress. I say that they have the thirty first
easiest schedule. I know they have an easy schedule, but
Houston comes in at six point seven. I'm going under
on that they play the easiest schedule, and and they
don't get to play themselves. Think about how easy that
schedule is. I mean they played a last place schedule.
I get it, but they don't have any time. That's
a crazy thing. And then the Jets are six point one.
So the last three teams on this list, Jacksonville, Houston,
(08:14):
and the Jets are thirty one and in tv O
a schedule and they don't play themselves, and they don't
play themselves, they play each other. They play. Yeah, it
goes back to first place versus last place. Schedule means
a little more now than it used to um to
make the playoffs of Steelers have a forty six percent
chance according to I've been a lot of people across
(08:35):
this country doesn't agree with that. It doesn't seem like
it to win this to reach to reach the super Bowl.
A six point to chance percent chance to reach the
super Bowl. That's high. Far better than Cleveland, is it?
That's better than Denver. Let's go okay, So Tampa Bay
is at twenty two point six percent, Baltimore at eighteen
point eight percent, k C at seventeen point two, Buffalo
(08:59):
at thirteen point one, New England at nine point nine.
I don't buy that. At all either, I'm sorry, yea.
Even if they get into the playoffs because they have
the thirty second easiest schedule, then you have to play
good teams. Yeah, and it kind of comes back to
our Ravens conversation too, is can that version of the
Patriots come from behind and throw the wide receivers that
(09:20):
gets the Chiefs? You know they're gonna play a certain way. Yeah,
Seattle's at ten point, San Francisco's at eight point seven,
Green Bay's eleven point eight, New Orleans nine point oh uh,
Dallas is seven point four, Minnesota seven point three, the
Rams seven point oh the Ram and then the Steelers
(09:41):
are next, ahead of Miami, who they projected more wins
in them, ahead of Denver, who they have projected to
win more games. And I wonder how they do that,
how they come up with those percentages of Super Bowl
verse wins. And you know, they give the Steelers a
two point nine chance to win the Super Bowl. Mom
(10:01):
So people saying that the Steelers have no chance a
Roethlisberger there, you know, why are they doing this? That's why?
I mean, I'm sure it's there, but they're also there's
also a percentage that they could get a lottery pick two,
I mean first pick overall, Like I know, that's one
of the things they do with They also talked about
how bad teams can be too, because they were they
(10:23):
were in like a million simulations and there's a chance
they could end up picking first or thirty second. I
mean there's a chance. Um total d v o A.
This is how good your team is right now on paper. Steelers,
I think they were clearly the number one defense then
and the Rams were. One is Tampa Bay at twenty
(10:45):
I get it. Two is Baltimore. Three is I'm not
betting on Tampa Bay to when the Super Bowl to back. Yeah,
they got through pretty I'm not gonna say good injury free,
but pretty injury free. Last year. They got kind of
lucky through the playoffs too. Two they got to play,
including that version of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Yeah. Uh.
(11:05):
Casey was third at fifteen point five. Uh, Buffalo was
I'm sorry. No, Green Bay is fourth at thirteen point
nine to win the Super Bowls. No, this is ther
d b o A ranking total overall team ranking Uh.
Fifth is Buffalo six with Seattle at eleven point one.
Seven at eight point six is New Orleans. They like
(11:29):
New Orleans more than I would have guessed. I'm excited
to read that chapter. Eight is San Francisco at eight
point two. I actually wonder if New Orleans when I
read that chapter, I bet there's gonna be something along
the lines of they might be better at quarterback than
they were last year. Brees was not very good, and
he was not very good. I'm not saying Jameis is great,
but it could be one of those editions. By subtractions.
(11:50):
Nine is the Rams at seven point one, Ten is
the Vikings at seven point oh. Eleven is New England
at six point five. Yet they had New England is
with the fifth most wins because of that, because that
easy schedule. Twelve is Dallas at five point oh and
then the Steelers at four point nine. There's not a
(12:12):
big difference, not a big deal. Not a big difference
there between Let's say once you get down to seven ish. Yeah,
seven was in New Orleans at eight point six, and
the Steelers are there at four point nine. At thirteen
not a projected playoff ish teams. Fourteen is Miami at
(12:34):
two point to the difference there is that Miami plays
the twenty six hardest schedule Steelers have two. They're projecting
the Steelers be better football team by two point seven. Yeah. Uh,
same thing with Who's fifteen. Fifteen is Cleveland, but Cleveland
plays the eighth best schedule. They play the eighth toughest schedule. Oe.
(12:59):
UM sixteen is actually Denver at point two. Okay, so
their average their average. But they again they project them
with the same wind total as the Steelers. We'll see
offensive dv o A. They're projecting Casey is number one.
They have. The number two offense is Green Bay yea Rogers. Yeah,
(13:24):
I mean I assume they're just gonna asterix that and
say with Rogers, three is Tampa Bay. Four at Seattle, Wow,
I don't know if I agree with that. Yeah, five
is Baltimore. I don't know if I agree with that.
They got to make a pretty big jump to get
to there this year because last year, Uh, their offensive
d v o A Baltimore was ninth. No, it's defense
(13:47):
they were eleven. So the Ravens chapter is pretty favorable
for them. That I just summer it up as football
Siders likes Lamar more than most people do. Just put
it that way. Um, they have them as with the
tenth hardest schedule, by the way, and the whole divisions
got road. Uh. Six is Minnesota HM seven offense offense,
(14:13):
yeahs for play. Last year on offense was really high.
Seven is Cleveland. I don't know if I see that.
Who do you think has a better offense? Cleveland Baltimore.
I mean there's similar styles. Well, Cleveland was ninth in
offensive d v o A last year in Baltimore was eleventh.
So yeah, and one thing about Cleveland, you gotta remember
(14:34):
they played three awful weather games, really bad ones, so
it's a little harder, and they played games their first
two meetings with the Ravens and Steelers, they got crushed.
They scored thirteen points combined. And they also benefited though
from Week seventeen to playing against the team that wasn't
really trying to win. Eight Dallas, their offense is pretty
(14:57):
ring good. I would take Dallas's offensive over anyone in
our division division without question. I mean, if Tyron Smith
and Zach Martins stay healthy, that could be number one.
Nine is the Rams. I would take the Rams offense
over higher than Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland. Ten is Tennessee. Maybe
(15:18):
they've got three stars yeah, potentially eleven Buffalo. I put
Buffalo pretty high too. Yeah, i'd have Buffalo. Maybe Overland, Yeah,
they were top five last year. Twelve Las Vegas. I'm
not buying that, not really. I'm not gonna go through
(15:38):
the mall. But they hit the Steelers going the twenty
one best offense in the league this year. They were
twenty two last year. I think the offense was better
than last year. And I'm not just say so. As well.
The radio station we're on the running game has to
be better. Yeah, that's at minus four overall zero's average.
Uh so minus four. They were minus four point seven
(15:58):
last year. Who were like the ones, slightly above, slightly below,
uh slightly above them. Twenty two is Indianapolis? Yeah, twenty
is it's not a real ring endorsement. New England. Yeah,
I think I'll take the Steelers offense over the Patriots.
(16:18):
Nineteen is Denver. Take the Steelers offense over Denver? Would
kidding me? Like, I'm just curious, Like I know, perception
across the national media of Ben isn't great right now?
Eighteens Detroit. What if Ben were a Bronco, they'd be
a Super Bowl contender. I think I think they're ten
(16:39):
and a half, you know what I mean. I'm not
saying Ben's a savior, but I mean better than what
they defensive d v o A Steelers are number one. Yeah,
they're only minus nine point oh so last year they
were number they were number two and two to the Rams.
I think, no, last year they were number one minus
(17:00):
twenty point two, minus twenty point two. New Orleans was
second at minus nineteen. So I mean they're they're being pretty.
Projections are hard because you don't get the average of
the best in the worst. You don't pick teams to
be sixteen and one. Even Tampa Tampa Bay's average win
average wins comes out to eleven point one in seventeen
(17:22):
games schedule. There will be someone will be better than that.
Three to four teams this year that win more than
eleven games. Of course, of course that's just the way
it works. There'll be there'll be three to four teams.
The lowest win total in the league is six point one,
and there's gonna be there's gonna be three or four
teams below that number one, five or lapt right, there
always is. I think the way it works, and by
no means of my a math major, But it goes
(17:44):
back to when you simulate ten thousand a million games,
you get closer and closer to eight and eight or
eight and nine, nine and eight. You know that'll be
just because fifteen and ones are hard, but they still
happen year and the year. It's kind of like the
baseball analogy, like I win your baseball games, you're a
stud team, where if you win six your football games,
(18:05):
that might not get you in the playoffs, right because
a smaller example size. Uh so they're one San Francisco's
number two actually defensive or defensive d v o A. Yeah,
minus seven point eight. Steelers are minus nine point oh
get Nickolsa back and some good things there, but I
don't think they're in a legal that's a pretty big
Like the number one offense offensive was it was too
(18:30):
Casey was one of offenses. They were one at number
one at twenty point one. Number two was Baltimore at
seven teen point six. So it's a little bit bigger.
That's a little bit bigger spread than the Steelers defense
over San Francisco's defense. But then you look down the line.
Number three is New Orleans at minus seven point four.
(18:50):
Who was to last year, right, Yeah. Number Number four
is uh Buffalo and minus seven point one. Number five
is five is New England at minus six point five.
I think it's a good D. I think it's a
deep D that isn't star studded. But you bring high
(19:11):
tower back and j gets a year older, and I
think they'll be sixteen deep with good players. Depends on
what happens with the cornerback situation though. Is he gonna
be there hold out? Yeah? But Jackson is not bad,
and you know there's the guy that makes that go though.
Because UH six is Tampa Bay defense seven is Washington,
(19:37):
I might put them on. They might be higher than that.
We'll see. I still don't love the linebackers, but I
might put a buck on Jamie Davis to win Rookie
of the Year behind that line. Eight Baltimore, it's good,
it's not great to me. Nine is Now we're talking
ABU football outsiders. I think I sent this to you
when I read the Ravens section. They have some remarkable
(19:59):
streak of having top ten d v o a s
over like the last fifteen years or something crazy. The
defense and special teams they're like been the best over
a long stretch, not necessarily top five, but like top ten.
Denver's nine in defense, uh, not perfectly fine with that.
Ten is Chicago. Yeah they have some holes though. Yeah,
(20:22):
this is where Cleveland really They were very bad last
year and they're gonna have like nine new starters on defense,
six in defensive d B O A. I mean, I
bet it's better than that. But here's the thing. I
don't know if their offense is going to be seventh.
I think it's worse than that. They're both closer to
the average. So if they're tenth in offense in two
(20:47):
in defense, are they a good and five teams? I
don't think so. Division winner? Um the key too, and
we mentioned this before. It's raven like, is the defense's
to keep them close, Like I don't know if they're
down ten on the road against the Titans or whomever,
that the Browns are gonna storm back because they can't
stop it and Baker turns all over in those The
(21:09):
thirty second rated defense according to them is Tennessee. Wow.
And they've done a lot. They've like rebuilt their whole
past defense. It was bad to last year and the
worst pass rushing team in the league last year. The
only team ahead of the Steelers on this UH with
the defense outside of the top six team, which would
be midway through, is k C at two. The only
(21:34):
offenses on the list that rank i'm looking here outside
the top sixteen according to them, Well there's there's four. Actually,
one would be the Steelers at one, the Colts Denver
at nineteen, in New England at twenty. Okay, so if
(21:54):
you're gonna if that's where this ends up at, you
better be really good on defense. And the Steelers are,
according to this really good on defense. Yeah yeah, I
mean they would certainly be in the top three for
me ranking defenses right now, I would lean towards Washington one. UH.
Special teams rankings, this is a part of the team
d v o A as well. Number one is New England.
(22:17):
They're also that's another Football Outsiders historic note is Baltimore
and New England are the only teams that are consistently
near the top. Number two is Baltimore. Three. Um, I'm
not seeing three on here. I got Pittsburgh's decent. Three
is Cincinnati. They were then, Really that's one thing has
(22:39):
done really well since he's been there. That nobody, of
course notices but they've always been near the top of
the league. Four is Detroit shows you a little bit
how much special teams it does matter. But it's not
that I know how football outsiders does it is. They
look at it like it's a ten cut pizza. Five
cuts are offense. Four cuts it's eight, it's eight. It's
(23:00):
because it's four and three four, three and one. Yeah,
I know. One cut is special teams, Yeah, which is important,
but there's a lot of variants with that too. The
Steelers come in at that at sixteen, I think, yeah,
I think they have a good special teams coach. They've
been higher than that in three of the last four years. Yeah,
I mean more so than some teams. They'll keep five
(23:20):
core special teamers too, you know what I mean, and
upgrade the year that they didn't finish in the top
six team when they returned, yeah, what the Boswell was
awful and they didn't return their kick returns. We're just awful.
And I think they have a returner. Now they've got
a returner. Boswell's Boswell and especially you'll see what happens
with the punning. But people that complain about Danny Smith,
(23:43):
you know, that's another one of those positions like corner
or left tackle. You do remember the bad things, you know,
like special teams. Coach is a thankless joan um. Looking
at some of these other top teams, Tampa Bay number
one in the league, the special team on special teams,
uh Baltimore too, Casey is five, Buffalo is fifteen. Casey
(24:04):
has been pretty good over the years, Seattle ten, San
Francisco three, Green Bay is thirty one. I think they
were really bad on special teams last year from what
I remember, New Orleans sixth. You wouldn't think that would
be the case with New Orleans because they're so top
heavy and they don't you know, I was thinking that too,
like who are the backup linebackers and safeties that are
(24:24):
good players that would playing for? Yeah, Dallas, iste, Minnesota,
Minnesota and Green Bay. Your top two teams in the
NFC Central bad special team, bad special teams, the Rams
twenty nine. They're usually high to they usually do a
lot of trickery, and you know, Hecker throws balls and
(24:46):
Miami's nineteen, Denver six. I mean that could be a reason,
you know, if you're looking at oh, yeah, it's different,
I could get that wins or loses you a game.
I mean it goes back to the Ravens and Patriots.
I mean one of the Harborn Belichick's staples are being
great in that phase. And maybe it's not a big
percentage of games, but you do it year after year,
(25:08):
your win percentage goes up. Uh, Cleveland is twenty seconds.
So the Browns, according to these Divo A projections seventh
on offense, twenty six on defense, twenty two and special teams.
That does not add up to the division winning team. Again,
reading that Browns chapter, I don't have it in front
of me, but I'm almost certain they had unbelievably good
(25:29):
field gold luck. You know where opponent kickers just missed.
You know, that doesn't mean you're great at Russian the kicker.
You know you're lucky, you know something. That's where they play,
probably right right, I mean, but but still, yeah, it
still helps. Looking at those schedules, who mentioned that Chicago
had the hardest schedule at number one, the Steelers number two,
number three, is surprised me. Chicago's number one. Their division
(25:53):
is not that hard and they're not a first place.
You know, they gotta play green Bay in Minnesota, which
is no you know, Picnic Green Bay comes in three,
so the North must play somebody. NC West. Four is Detroit,
so there you go. Yeah, yeah that division five they
must play at the NFC West and probably the f
(26:14):
C Nor. The Steelers don't play that team. Did that
group to that? I should know that, I thought, my heaven, Yeah,
yeah they do, they yeah, they do. So that's probably
the hardest divisions to play if you're the NFC North. Yeah.
Fifth is Cincinnati. The six games in their divisions really
rough on them. Six is the Rams. Seven is Minnesota.
(26:34):
So that whole division. As as hard as the schedule
is for the a f C North, the NFC North
has it even harder. Makes me think the chances are
one NFC North team goes the playoffs. Cleveland's at eighty
nine is the Chargers. Everybody's darling and this is another
darling team that all they're gonna make this big jump
this year where they get a tough schedule. I think
(26:56):
they're better than Denver and Oakland Vegas though what they
play a tougher sketch. Yeah. Uh. Ten is Baltimore. Yeah,
both the North divisions have top roads. Washington's eleven. So
with the Arizona at twelve, at the bottom end of
that scale. We mentioned that thirty two was New England. Yeah,
(27:18):
they've been historically hit the bottom of that list, always,
always uh. And then we'll I mean, we'll see Miami's
getting better. Buffalo is Buffalo. It's not that they're a
dog against Buffalo. Yeah, thirty is uh Tampa Bay. I
guess their division is not that scary. Their favorite at
(27:38):
least in four of those games, and probably six twenty
nine Buffalo hight is Houston. Wow. Still I don't know,
are they gonna be a favorite in any game? I mean,
if Jacksonville were in Houston in Week one, what's the
spread the pick them? Yeah, I think I take the Jags.
(27:59):
Seven is Denver? Twenty six is Miami? So interesting stuff though, Yeah,
all that stuff matters. And again the Steelers mean victory
average wins eight point eight. That would be the second
most in the division behind bat ahead of Cleveland, who
is everybody's Oh, everybody's slick pick. The Browns have a
forty two point eight percent chance to make the playoffs,
(28:20):
according to Football Outside, There's a five percent chance to
reach the Super Bowl, a two point two percent chance
to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers better than them
on both of those fronts as well. I mean, nine
and eight might kick you in the postseason, probably will
for somebody. Probably, I bet the seventh team has probably
not been getting into some tiebreakers and things of that nature.
But can't be eight. Can't be tired at eight and
(28:41):
eight anymore. No, I kind of like that point. Yeah,
seventeenth game. I think it's cool that way. Yeah, so
interesting stuff, Jim. We'll have Aaron Shafts on to talk
about all this next Monday. Tune in for that. Yeah,
I can't wait for that. But that's gonna do it
for this show. So for my partner Matt Williamson, for
Kellen Girski here on site keeping us on the air,
I'm Dale Lally. We thank you for listening to this
(29:03):
edition of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio.
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