August 28, 2025 • 46 mins
Matt and Wes open The Drive discussing all the latest moving and shaking with the Steelers active roster and practice squad.
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
You were tuned about drive on your twenty four to
seven Home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
What's going on, Steelers Nation Radio. It is the Drive
here on the Steelers Audio Network. West Shooler and Matt
Williamson with you for the next two hours on your
twenty four to seven Home of the Black and the
Gold before we head to What I dare say, Matt,
is a long holiday weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Yeah, well deserved for all of us.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I'm looking forward to it.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
Yeah, certainly.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I know you've got some plans with some of your
buddies and some fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I'll be going down to Morgantown.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
For the Robert Morris University Stellar.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
First time in program histories that the universities have played
each other.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
It's kind of cool. I kind of like your chances.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
I like our chances there. Yes, but there will be
I think plenty of people making the trip down seventy
nine to Morgantown. So yeah, one last kind of weekend
for all of us to breathe before we really will
hit the ground running starting on Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
We will have a ton of Jets stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Mike Tomlin will speak Tuesday afternoon as well too, So
any news in terms of I think especially some of
the injuries that we've been speculating on.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
And things like that have official stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
We will have official designations and all and all of
that as well too.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
So in a week from today, there's gonna be an
NFL game, which is awesome in a real game with
like all the starters and matters and all that stuff.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
And a good one, great rivalry between two good teams.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
And Michael Parsons will be involved or not. But Dallas
is going to Philly, I mean, great stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
George Pickens certainly will be and so we'll get our
first look at him in a different uniform. So plenty
to get to between now and Tuesday, though, still of course,
and Matt, I think we start today with all the
latest roster moving and shaken.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, last time we got together, we had not had
a practice squad yet, and since then so much happened.
Sometimes in twenty four hours we.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
Got warned that was going to be the cashors.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I mean, that's just the way it goes. And some
of these people are some of our fans are listening
obviously hours after record and it's just the podcast world.
But it's better than live radio that doesn't exist back
in the day, you know. But anyway, since we you
and I got together last, there is a practice squad announced.
I think that's definitely worth going over some familiar names.
(02:37):
And they made two moves off of it already, you know,
So things are We always say that fifty three is
not setting stone, folks, It's right.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Not even sett in stone usually for about twenty four hours,
definitely not forty eight hours. And yes, since we've last conversed,
there has been plenty of moving and shaking. Let's start
with you want to start with the changes to the
act of raw here before we go to practice squad?
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Does that make sense?
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Other way you want to do disco area chronological what
kind of makes a little more sense and people will
understand where these guys came from and all that.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Sure.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
So if you will recall Tuesday, four o'clock four point
thirty was when was when the initial fifty three man
roster came out and.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We were on the air and just boom and dude.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
That was a hectic day.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
There was a lot going on.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
My reading comprehension let me down, and I thought Najie
Harris was going back onto a list.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
They were throwing left and right.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Throwing things at us left and right. But then Wednesday
we got these Steelers sixteen man practice squad. Five defensive
backs Beanie Bishop, the rookie Sebastian Castro, DeShawn Jamison, James Pierre,
and then hoping on a move and train himself, mister
Darryl Porter, two defensive linemen Kyler Baugh and de Marvin Leonon.
(03:53):
One linebacker the German Knife Julius Venschoff, as Max Starks
calls him. Two off of lineman Dylan Cook and Stephen Jones,
two running backs Lou Nichols and Tray Sarmon, one tight
end JJ Gallbreath, and three wide receivers Max Harlman listed
as a wide receiver, Kashawn Williams, and the veteran Robert Woods.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
So since COVID you're allowed to put some veterans on there,
you should just be young guys, you know, So Robert
Woods counts, you know, I mean, that's.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Fine, les be infested at this point.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Yeah, good point. I definitely have some takeaways. The first
one is it's pretty odd that you build your entire
first practice squad of guys you had. I mean there's
nobody from outside the organization.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
That it's a great point. Yeah, there's nobody. Oh we
want to get a look at this guy.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Let's get well, I gotta do homework on him. Never
heard of him, you know, that type of thing. So
they obviously liked the guys they had, and I remember
Tomlin even saying we have a good ninety you know, like,
I think that they believe that in their money's where
their mouth is, or they wouldn't have kept these guys.
Certainly some initial impressions are I would have loved another
(05:06):
O lineman out there. But part two of this will
make this a little easier too, because they did make
an O line move today. Leal they list is a
D lineman, but I think he's really an OLB for
this reason. Yeah, so you don't have all that stock
just in Welshoff, who's free. I mean, so if I'm
(05:27):
not sure Welshoff makes a team if he's from Montana
or Alabama or you know what, exactly, who knows? We
were when we talked about the initial roster, we made
note that the D line, the big guys were really heavy.
There are eight of them, so there's only really one
true D lineman on the practice squad, bah, who I
(05:50):
frankly know the least about of all these guys. I mean,
he was kind of I think he was late to
the party too. Yes, I know they do like him,
and a couple of people late late in training camp
mentioned him to me, but I didn't study them like
I should. So they already have eight guys on the
roster and so only one big guy that's not a problem.
So there are nine Steelers at least that are d linemen.
(06:10):
We also mentioned the defensive backs were really weird and
worrisome in terms of just numbers on Tuesday when we
initially reacted, And there's five defensive backs out there, so
obviously they balanced that out, as are these next upcoming moves. Yes,
and a couple of names. I was just really happy
(06:31):
that everyone, many fans listeners worry so much around cut day, like,
oh man, if you cut Lee out, someone's gonna get.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Them, or you know, or Skyler everyone on Twitter thought
beating Bishop was gone.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Yeah, exactly, And people don't get picked up as much
as you think, is the bottom line, because it's a
lot of work for the new team that right now
is just like the Steelers worried about the Jets. It's
not let's coach up the new corner that has no
klues doing. I don't time for that stuff.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
Is what the whole last month was for.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah, and I think we used the example it's not
like picking up a right fielder and just shoving them in.
Go hit fifth, you know you'll be fine, correct. But
I was also happy the two backs they brought back.
They were exactly the names we kind of discussed that
we're good, just missed guys. I still have hoped for
Dylan Cook and Stephen Jones, and I love that they're tackles,
you know, not just center onlys or anything like that.
(07:24):
And Hurlman, to me, is an exciting, perfect example of
I want to get them to camp next year totally.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
You know, we've mentioned that a few times.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Yep, yep.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
And I think that I think you're spot on. I
think if the names that if you would have you know, Tuesday,
when that initial fifty three came out and you told
Steeler fans, hey picked five names that aren't on the
roster that you want to protect on the practice squad.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
Pierre I think would have been there.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Beanie would have been there, Leal would have been there,
Max Harlman would have been there. I mean, that's for
cook and Castro come to mind cooking certainly. So I
think you're you're fortunate that that worked out in that regard.
But like you said, I think that's one of those
things too. There's there's not as much of the stealing
of guys as.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
A lot of work for the new team.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
And back when you had you know, distinct cut down days,
I think it was a little bit easier because you
had a little bit more time to coach a guy
up and see what he had as to Now again,
like you said, you're getting ready for the Jets like
nothing else.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Matters, Nothing else matters, And just think about it. If
you're the Steelers, are any of the other thirty one
front offices, Yes you see some cuts coming down the line,
not exactly at four, but for the most part, officially
the NFL will send you an email. I assume here
are the nine hundred people that were cut all at once.
(08:44):
I mean, no matter how deep your scouting staff is
and what prep you did, that's a lot to digest.
That's a tidal wave of cut dudes, you know what
I mean?
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Right?
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Who you're putting a claimant out of this group, like
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
No, it's that's that's a very good point too. And
even if there's like a couple of people that you're
pounding the table for that, even is still a process
of like, yeah, right, let's go up the chain of
command here and see who.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
We're gonna have to make that happen, and right, would.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
You rather type conversations that Again, they don't necessarily have
as much time to do that as they used to
on the third day of August, you know, when the
regular season was still was still five weeks away.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
And seventy five percent of those cut guys you expected
to get cut or more. But still it's a lot
of names to hit you at once.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
It sure is.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
And then even more movement off of that this morning, Matt,
the roster moves continue for the stillers as they bring
back two other familiar names in Chuck Clark and Max
Sharping of course safety and guard and placed two moves
that I think we all knew were coming. It was
just a when, not an if. Will Howard and Dante
(09:52):
kent to the reserved injured list.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
So my initial impressions there are I assume they told
Clark and Sharping Unfortunately, guys, we have to release you
and for forty or for twenty four hours. Yeah, please
don't answer your phone. I understand if you do, but
you're gonna be unemployed, and we definitely want to bring
you back. And that adds up with how they built
their initial fifty three. But there's a chance they could
(10:16):
have left. I mean that those guys don't have to
come back. Somebody else could have called them whatever. They
both put out a lot of preseason tape, and maybe
somebody steals them up or offers them a better deal.
But my take on it was two things. A lot
of people tweeted me, so Steelers are keeping four so
(10:37):
they can spend longer time to shop Skyler for a pick.
I never thought that was it at all, But maybe,
I mean, maybe, did somebody report that around Pittsburgh that
I don't know about. I don't know because for whatever reason,
I got that question a bit interesting. And am I god,
wonder if.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Somebody did report that or if that's just wishful thinking.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, maybe, And hey, if I would listen for forty
eight hours or whatever, if somebody wants to give you
something decent for him, great, But those other two draft picks,
I think this implies they liked them a lot. They
never wanted to lose control of them. You know, you
can even bring them back if need be, and you
know so, I think they have high hopes for Kent
and Howard.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
I was going to say the quarterback conversation always feels
like a separate one, Like everyone knows that they want
to see Will Howard. He's going to play a lot
in the preseason next year, you know, all those all
those different things. Yeah, Dante Kent, that's the one that
that's like as I think that's a very good sign
for him.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Though.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
I thought so in terms of how that because, like
you said, he was almost the forgotten pick of this class.
He got injured early in camp and it's not like
he was a second or third or fourth round pick, and.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
I was supposed ton't even know who he was when
he got drafted.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Exactly exactly right. And for him to despite that lack
of visibility and and and and reps and and all
those things, I think that means they are very high
on this guy.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
That was my biggest take away from the moves today
is I bet they really want Kent in the organization.
They must, they must, they must, So yeah, maybe they'd
a fifth round grade on them, probably do. I mean
that's kind of how the draft.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
Works, certainly, certainly, so there.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Could be more moves to come. But these all add up,
you know.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
They do, and so we you know, there is now
the extra offensive linemen, which makes sense now, the safety
that we knew had to be added, you know at
some point, and a practice squad that has two defensive
backs on it that you, hey, if you had to
break that's easy for me to say, if you had
(12:36):
to break glass in case of emergency in Pierre and Bishop,
two guys that you're familiar with that are experience that
have played meaningful snaps at the NFL level. I think
it makes some of the remaining questions that we asked
on Tuesday got.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Answered, got answered, Yeah, yeah, and people that might have
missed it. Trice is on IR as well, So that's
another corner that is not out of the organization that
they still like obviously, and I do think it's a
little odd, and I bet it doesn't keep up for
many more weeks. They do only have four corners available
right now. The top three in Echols, which they absolutely
(13:14):
can play the Jets with four corners, no doubt. Sure,
but they maybe Pierre comes right back on for special
teams reasons real shortly into the season, who knows, and
or maybe when they think they can't keep that eighth
off defensive lineman, he gets replaced by a corn.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
And remember too, with some of these VESTA guys like
James Pierre, if they're not active Week one, that makes
their money for the rest of the season not guaranteed, yes, right,
which is kind of a big deal from an Omar
con standpoint of being all about cap and dollars and
cents and structure, and that's a big deal.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
So that's a note as well.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
So I think Sharping and Clark are guaranteed now.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
I believe.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
So, Yeah, they weren't on the original they got cut,
so I'm not sure.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
For as long as they just stay on the active
roster until you know, next Sunday.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
For not certain of that now.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
I think for another nine days, I think they. I
think it's whoever is on the active roster on game
day Week one. If you are a vested veteran, your
contract is guaranteed for the rest of the season.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
So they're probably safe with that. Yes, good for them,
you know, right.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Yeah, So there you have it. There's the latest moving,
shaken developments as it relates to the Steelers fifty three,
the practice squad, the injured reserve list, all of those
different movements and everything. They're going to take a break
when we come back.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Matt a little.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Matt's Stats esque conversation about implied projected points. Yeah, across
the NFL this season. Well, we'll go to the classroom
with Professor Williamson. He returned on the other side, West Shieler,
Matt Williams, and it is the Drive on Steelers Nation
Radio on the Steelers Audio Network, your tunes.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
About Drive on your twenty four to seven home of
the Black and Goals. Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Back on the Drive here on a Thursday, as the
final kind of quiet week for football comes to a
conclusion here holiday weekend, and then Man college football will
be off and running with a couple of big games
on Saturday. Yeah, we talked about this.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Yeah, I mean, I'm super psyched. I mean I'm gonna
be people know that this is a weekend of the
bauchery for me with my buds. I can't wait, I'm jealous,
but I'm definitely setting aside Texas, Ohio State to watch
every snap buckled down.
Speaker 4 (15:58):
U Clemson in the evenings. I mean a good one
as well too.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
And I urge people to we talk up Dane Brugler
a lot from the athletic. He put out something today
that I haven't read yet, but I will take it
with me for the weekend. Every prospect to watch in
all the big games. So again, I watch games for prospects, Yes, yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Yes, indeed, and there's some certainly in Ohio State, Texas
and some of these other big games this weekend.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
Might be a future stealer of quarterback playing this weekend, certainly,
LSU guy game.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Folks certainly could be a couple couple candidates, without a doubt, Matt,
before we get there. One of the things that I
wanted to peel back the curtain on with you here
or dig deep into whatever is the right way to
describe it. I've enjoyed, you know, I always enjoy getting
to do radio with you, but as we've been doing
more of that in the last month or so than
(16:46):
we ever have together. Every night slash morning, I get
a couple emails something here. I love it, and it's like, hey,
check this out. This could be a really fun segment.
Hey look at this. This is this is good stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
As Dale can attest, it'll be like a segment question mark.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Which is great because you almost send me the email
like it's.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
A text message.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Yeah, Like the subject line will be segment question mark,
and then just the body of the email. Do it.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Do what you want with this. But if it's something interesting,
let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Well, I would say almost all of what you said
me is interesting. And one of those things was twenty
twenty five implied projected points?
Speaker 4 (17:25):
So how many sorts?
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Confusing to people for a minute.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Yeah, how many points teams are? Is this broken down
on it? Let's let's start, you know, thirty thousand feet
and then we'll zoom in. Is this broken down as
points per game, points per season? How does this?
Speaker 3 (17:39):
How does this roll out? Vegas implied projected points? Okay,
that's a mouthful, you know, like I say that five times?
What are you talking about?
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Now?
Speaker 3 (17:49):
This is not an exact science by any stretch of
the imagination. It's not you We don't know what's going
to happen in week ten and week twelve especially, No
have a better idea early in the season than late.
All the bestquarterbacks in league could all get hurt and
this could go flush right down the toilet.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, if Josh Allen gets hurt in Week one, Buffalo's.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
Not right right right. That being said, so Vegas is smart.
We've established that, you know, a lot of our Warren
Sharp stuff is based off Vegas odds and lines and
things of that nature. And they're big ass buildings in
Vegas are not built.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
For because of them losing, losing very off.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
They're pretty smart. So we've gotten so far in the
betting world that we can use this as a tool
for fantasy football, you know, football analysis. And here's how
they came up with these numbers. You can go to
any I'm not a betting expert, but you can in
some way, shape or form, any of us could go
(18:45):
bet on any game this NFL season. You could bet
on the Steelers Week twelve game, the Jets Week fourteen game,
and there is a line currently, so Week ten, let's
say the Giants are playing the Jets whatever. I'm just
pulling it out of the thin air, and the over
under for that game is forty three and the Jets
(19:06):
are favored by three. The implied total of that game
is Jets twenty three, Giants twenty. Yes, that adds upright, folks.
So I'm trying to make it as simple as possible.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
With makes a lot of rep even if you're not
into gambling and all that. That makes it perfect sense.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
So if you look at every line and every over
under total, you can accumulate every team's implied projected points.
And that's what this chart is.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Yeah, yeah, over under what Vegas thinks how many points
are going to be scored in the game versus what's
the line?
Speaker 4 (19:38):
What's the spread between the two teams?
Speaker 3 (19:40):
And we know that their over under is not going
to hit exactly, and the spread's not gonna hit exactly,
but that's the implied total, you know, right.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
If the over unders forty three and a half, yep,
one team's favored by three and a half, something like
twenty three to twenty is the implied exactly final score.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
And so so if it's thirty nine.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
By the way, I meant to tell you I heard
you on the what was the last the Carolina Panthers.
You and our buddy shirtless Tom, Tommy Radio more. He's
got more nicknames.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
Than Rick Flairs.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
I mean, I tell you he's got more names than
the Rock You and Tom and I heard you on
there and you made a thirteen to nine joke, you know,
very very well done.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
Yes, I know he's a pick guy too.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
So hey, I mean he went to Duquine. Don't give
him that much, but he is. But he is a big.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
He's a huge.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
He's got season tickets and all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
So Underdog Fantasy put this graph out, you know, basically saying,
when in doubt, draft fantasy players from team to score
more points.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Duh, duh.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
But it's also great for Steeler analysis. Where are the
Browns on here? Where the Bengals on here? Raven's on here?
You know, like, who are the best offenses in the league?
And this is not anyone making it up.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
This isn't a list of This isn't Mane.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Dale's or Matt and West's favorite.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
Isn't this isn't your wide receiver power rankings, which we're
going to get to the second hour of the show,
right all.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
Right, this is what Vegas thinks is the best bets.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Buffalo at the top of the list, right on their
heels is Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Okay. Now, a lot of this also reflects like what
we talked about yes strike schedule and playing Bills don't
play a really tough schedule, so they're favored in almost
all their games by a substantial amount and are expected
to score a ton of points. Of those two quarterbacks,
I don't think anyone's shocked that they're the two teams
expected to be the highest scorers. I think it's interesting
to go through the top ten or so in the
(21:31):
bottom ten and where the Steelers are.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
That's that's what I wanted to do here.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Number three is a little interesting to me, not because
I don't think they're a good offense. I wouldn't have
had them third. I would have thought they'd certainly be
top ten. But Detroit is number three.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Okay. I am almost certain we haven't got the NFC
over unders. I think they have like the second easiest
schedule in the.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
League they if I remember correct. I think I could
pull that up for you in just a second.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Because we were talking about that yesterday. I know that
they have some weird scheduling quirks, and they also have
a lot of things in their advantage in terms of
like rest before their games. And they're a good skin.
I mean, they're obviously a good offense.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
Yes, yes, we're giving this.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Here we go, I got it right here at the
very path.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
The Where are they?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Why can't I find them?
Speaker 3 (22:19):
Maybe they can't read I'm totally wrong. Maybe they're in
the middle.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
I can't read. Good.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
Where's the Lions on this list?
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (22:25):
There, here we go, thirdy third, most difficult.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Most difficult. That does shock me, Imi. I assumed it
was third easiest since they're third on this implied projected points.
But they were talk of listed scoring last year.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
I think the and I don't expect them to take
some massive drop back step back, but they lost a
lot of that interior of their offensive line, they lost
their offensive coordinator. But they still, I think, will be
a top ten offense. Yeah, Number four the Commanders, okay,
number five, Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
So something we were talking about off the air, where
offense is more predictive than defense, Like any analytic people
will tell you that. And I think a lot of
it's just because quarterbacks touch the ball over play and
chances already bring back the same quarterback. Not everyone does.
But and this isn't great for the Steelers conversation, like,
I've never seen this list done for defense, but I
(23:18):
guess you could. I mean, you could do points allowed
a yeah, and I'm sure the Steelers are higher on
the list defensively than they are offensively. Yes, and they'd
be on any list. We do a better d than Oh,
but history shows if you have one of the best
any metric you want, you know, EPA, yards for play,
whatever you're into, the best offenses are the ones that
(23:40):
last the longest in the league, that that go the farthest.
You're like, the final four teams from last year I
think were the four best offenses in the league. When
it was all said, yes, you know, yes, that doesn't
bode well for the way the Steelers are currently constructed,
you know.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
And that's the point that's some of the underlying points
of this exercise. So yeah, So Washington for Kansas City five,
Eagles six nine or seven, Tampa Bay eight, Cincinnata nine,
and the Rams ten.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
That's your top ten.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
Yeah, and I assume that they're I assume they're assuming
Stafford's healthy. You know, a couple of things have changed,
you know, Tampa has had a couple injuries on offense,
Godwin and Wharfs and things like that. But still I
don't know that the lines in week twelve changed that
much now just because of those bits of news.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That's a good point.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Yeah, But the teams just mentioned are been the best
teams in the league for.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
The most part. They certainly have.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
And what I.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Thought all of those except for well San Francisco and
Cincinnati where the two who were not playoff teams last year,
but the other eight of the top ten were in
the playoff last last year.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Adds up greas other bottom will be much worse.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, exactly, and some of the teams right behind there,
Green Bay, Arizona, Denver, the Chargers, quality teams'll be the
quality teams. The Vikings pretty are down this list, which
surprised me.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
Wow a little bit.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
They were pretty high last year.
Speaker 4 (25:04):
They are twenty first.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
It looks like here that's noteworthy.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
That was one of the kind of ones that that
surprised me for how low they were. And then the
Steelers twenty sixth Matt on this list.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
That's not gonna get it done, No, it's not. I mean,
if you end up with the twenty sixth highest scoring offense,
in the league. That's not a successful season anyway you
get there.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
I completely agree.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Even if you have the number one ranked defense right
with the twenty top way to win most you know,
successful offense or highest scoring offense is still a very
tough way to win.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And frankly, that's the way they've been winning over these
last five years or so. They win turnover differential like crazy,
great on special teams, great on defense, but it's tough
to win in the margins like that. It's easier just
to have Pat Mahomes and be at the top a
list orld be the Lions. Oh but yes, that's the
struggles the Steelers have dealt with lately, and Vegas expects
(25:57):
it to be sort of more of the same, which
isn't the best news.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
So it is not.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
But these are also implied projections. And as much as
they are statistically based, and we all know that Vegas
is accurate more than they are inaccurate, that also does
not mean that this is gospel or chiseledon.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
And this is the team we've talked about in the
camp a bunch. They're going to have a new leading passer,
a new leading receiver, new leading rusher.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Which has happened like fourteen times in the last and
the Super Bowl year in the last fifty some years.
Speaker 3 (26:27):
So I would imagine they're also one of the hardest
teams to handicap for Vegas.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Which have to be makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Where do they need to be about?
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Let's okay, let's take middle of the road.
Speaker 3 (26:40):
Let's let's do a.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Pie in the sky scenario. Defense is a bonafide top
two or three defense in the NFL. Okay, Steelers defense
is truly elite, one of the best. If you do
this exercise on the defensive side of the football, at
the end of the year, they're top two or three.
Where's the offense need to be for you to think that,
you know, this team could still get to a postseason
and make some noise mid you know, sixteeneen to sixteen, yeah, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I think you'd be a real contender in those scenarios.
I mean, if yeah, I think you'd be one of
the top eight teams in the league.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
For sure, you might not be top five, but you
could be nipping on the heels.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
But you would probably be in the same tier. As
we look at the Bills and Ravens and those type
of teams. I mean, that's a pretty good combination. And
I'm sure they'll be fine on special teams. If not good,
I mean bos is gonna be good. You know, different question,
different way of phrasing. You have no clue what special
teams or defense is going to be. And it's a
(27:42):
game that Dale and I used to play. Would if
I said you would be twentieth, would you take it?
Or would you go fish? And say I'll you know
what I mean? Like right now, I'm like if I
come out of the the genie comes out of the bottle,
you know, Robin Williams and says you can have the
twentieth best offense. Do you want to Would you say,
(28:05):
all right, I'll take it? Or give me door number two?
I'll see where the chips fall.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
So this is like getting sixteen on blackjack exactly if
you set because in my mind I was thinking I
need the eighteenth.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
I would say twenty. I think I'm going fish.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
I think I'm going fish.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
I need because again I'm if it was eighteen, like
this is, if it's seventeen on the blackjack table, I'm
staying I'm probably hitting. I'm probably going fish. I need,
I need eighteen or better.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
That's why I started with twenty.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
That's good, it's a.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Really good that's a good over under there by you, Matt.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
But if I gave you fifteen, I'll take it. Yeah,
I mean, like i'll take it today. No clue what
the season entails, fifteen, I'll take it twenty.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
I'm going fish one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
Okay, the same Mark markt Then, Yeah, I mean I
don't I can't imagine top six or seven, No, you
know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (29:00):
No, no, no, I think that's been a little too greedy.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, yeah, but hey, anywhere from eighteen to thirteen or
we're we're cooking with gas real quick.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Who are the bottom five or six?
Speaker 2 (29:14):
Cleveland is dead last, so the bottom by like a
wide margin.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
By a pretty wide margin.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
The bottom six below the Steelers are Vegas Titans, Jets, Giants,
g Nolins, and the last.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Yeah, I mean those are the bad teams. Yeah. It's
an offense driven.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
League, No, it certainly is.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
It's hard to overcome average the below everage offense, and.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
The Steelers have done a lot of that over the
last couple of years. Yeah, but let's hope they don't
have to do that again this year, right.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
If you can just take another step forward on that
side of the ball.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
That's your professor Williamson, little something, little some something of
the day. Yeah, I dig it, and that is that's
one of those things that hey, you want to you
want to see that start to uptick with maybe as
as some some expectation.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
It's just a you can argue about, like, oh, they
should be higher. Well, I mean, go out there and
prove it. I say, everyone that's betting the tase right
now tends to disagree with you, you know.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Yeah, one more segment to go here in this hour.
Plenty to get too. Still as we roll along, we'll
have some fantasy football conversation today as well too.
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Wes Shuler, Matt Williamson.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
It is the Drive here on Steelers Nation Radio on
the Steelers Audio Network, your tuned.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
About Drive on your twenty four to seven home of
the Black and Goal.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Steelers Nation Radio. Closing down the first hour of the
Drive here on a Thursday. Reminder, this is our last
(30:52):
show of the week. We'll be back with you on
Tuesday to tee up the start of the NFL season,
the start of the Steelers slate of course heading to
MetLife Stadium. Never been to MetLife Stadium before, Matt. Like,
the two stadiums that I would still like to see
are MetLife and Jerry World. Other than that, I've been
fortunate to see all the new palaces.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
And you've probably been locking a lot of.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Historic Lambeau and all that stuff, But I still.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I have not been to many. I'm sure you probably because.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
What you've done isn't necessarily like yeah, but yeah, So
I'm excited to see Met Life. I haven't heard the
best things about it from a spectator standpoint from but
from our kind of standpoint of setting up a broadcast,
I think it'll be pretty cool.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
Nice.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
So yeah, excited for that. Excited for everything to get
really going next week. But with that, we've been going
over some over and unders this week. Let's take a
look at the NFC East today, Matt. That's the first
division that's going to be on the docket a week
from today. And I mentioned yesterday when we did the
AFC that there were four teams with over under of
(32:00):
eleven and a half that was the highest Baltimore, Buffalo
and Kansas City and the AFC and of course, the
defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles eleven and a half
matt their schedules. Their schedule is ranked as the fourth
most difficulty.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I know, it's a tough one in the nation.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
I think the East in.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
General has tough schedules, and the Giants are like the
way bottom of the list when we get to them.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
It has been I don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I think seventeen seventy six was the last time that
the NFC East had back to back champions. It's been forever.
But can the Eagles buck that trend this year?
Speaker 3 (32:37):
I'm going under and I actually kind of feel stronger
than you might think about it. And strength of schedule
has a lot to do with it. I mean that
you're at the bottom of the league in terms of
the easiest path, you know. I mean, I think that
definitely adds up. They probably have a winning record in
the division, but I don't think they sweep it. I
mean four and two seems like a logical, you know,
(33:00):
end of division records. You're not gonna sneak up on anybody.
I mean, there's there's some truth to that, you know that.
I'm sure without in front of me. They play a
lot of primetime games and difficult travel schedule and things
of that nature. Sure, and I definitely think that. And
we talked about this, like with Saquon Barkley when we
did like the fantasy running back ranks. Most of those
(33:23):
Eagles played a lot more snaps than their opponents this
past year, you know, I mean, you go deep into
the playoffs, you get that surgery a month later, that
clean up on your knee you do a month later
than the other teams, or man, I'm still not back
to one hundred percent, or you know, Lane Johnson, someone
just picking an old guy, you know, like, man, I'm dragging.
(33:43):
And they played a lot of postseason games. And as
great as the Eagles season was, there was a pretty
decent stretch during the season where they did not look
like the best team in the league. You know, like
they're they're asking aj Brown, what's wrong with this team?
He's like passing game, you know, right, And I don't
think Herts is an elite quarterback. So great respect for
the organization. I might even pick them to win Super
Bowls here, but I'm going under.
Speaker 4 (34:07):
I also really respect everything that they're doing there.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, as much as I hate giving a team from
Philadelphia credit, although at least if it's not the Flyers,
I can stomach it. You like the more than the
Flyer certainly, certainly. And I did have a lot of fun.
I worked for that franchise for three years and so
I still know some people there and had a lot
of fun while I was out there. That was my
kind of break into the NFL and radio, and it
was a good time because with the organization when they
(34:31):
won their first ever Super Bowl, which was pretty cool.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
That's really cool.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
It was a lot of fun from a from a
work experience. But I think I'm with you on this one.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I still think they will win double digit games, I'm sure,
be really good and.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
Be in the playoffs. Yeah, but I just I think
you're right.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
I think last year they had a lot of things
break their way in the regular season after kind of
a little bit of a rocky start.
Speaker 4 (34:55):
And they also it.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Feels like, you know, pretty pretty fortunate the health department
last year as well too. What if Saquon misses two
or three games, Sure, you know, what if hurts missus
two or three games, and they're still really good on defense,
But I don't think they're quite as loaded as they were.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Last year on side.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
Corner.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Yeah, so I'll go slightly under. Yeah, like I think
they'll win eleven games.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
These exercises pretty easy to just over over. They're great,
you know, twelve and six or twelve and five doesn't
seem hard to get to.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
It doesn't.
Speaker 3 (35:29):
But it's a long year and bad things happen.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Certainly, and it's a tough division as well, as we'll
see from some of these other over unders division.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
No, certainly not.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
They might sweep the Giants, everybody might sweep the Giants,
but we'll get to them in a few minutes. The
Washington Commanders up next, matt nine and a half is
there over and under this year, and they are kind
of right in the middle nineteenth easiest schedule in the NFL,
so twelve, Yeah, they're kind of right right in the
(36:00):
middle of the packet. Not terrible in terms of that regard,
not terrible, nineteenth easiest in the NFL. In the over
under number is nine and a half for a team
that was in the final four last year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
So I would have guessed, not looking at the graphic,
they were going to be one of the ten and
a half teams. I thought so too, so nine and
a half makes this a little harder because I was
real intent on going under for a couple of reasons.
They're the oldest team in the league including the Steelers, right,
and they have one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league.
(36:32):
But they invest over and over in Bobby Wagner and
Echolar and Ertz and now Tunsel and Debo and mclaura
and you know, like all older back nine guys, if
not seventeenth to eighteenth hole. Now this is real nerdy,
But there is a in the analytics world, there is
a principle called the plexiglass principle, and it shows.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Have anything to do with plexico Boris does it.
Speaker 3 (36:57):
It is not similar, but this shows up heavily in
the history of the NFL that when a team such
as Washington takes four steps forward, nine out of ten times,
you take at least a small step back one two steps.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Yeah, Like it's probably not just like boom, a giant mother,
may I step forward and then another one and you
win the Super Bowl and this because it's just not
that easy, you know. And like they were eighty or
ninety percent on fourth downs and they went for it
more than anyone Okay, maybe they're better at it than
the Steelers or Green Bay or whoever. But you're not
(37:34):
going to be ninety percent on those and those are
turnovers if you don't get them. You know, like Jayde
and Daniels looks tremendous, But what do you think every
defensive coordinator in the NFC East is doing right now?
They're watching Jayde Daniels film, you know what I mean?
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Correct?
Speaker 3 (37:49):
And I don't think their defense is particularly good. I
think that there are a lot like the Bengals in
terms of makeup. I think their offense is loaded. I
think they're playing a ton of shootouts. We just talked about.
Their projected points was really high, but I think they're
gonna allow a lot of points too.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
I think you're right.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
And as a team that is the oldest in the NFL,
it feels like they're gonna be prone to have more
bumps and bruises than everybody else.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
I wish this was ten and a half though, I'd
feel real good about the under.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
If it was ten and a half, I would take
the under for sure. If it was eight and a half,
I think i'd take the over.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Yeah, it's the right number.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Like to me, they feel like a team that will
win eight or nine games this year.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
I don't think they're a super Bowl contender.
Speaker 4 (38:29):
I don't either.
Speaker 3 (38:29):
Some do and I don't agree with that.
Speaker 2 (38:32):
I think they are a playoff contender, yes, yeah, but
I don't think they are a super Bowl contender. Very
tough division. Yeah, I'm gonna go under as well too. Yeah,
I'm gonna go. If it was eight and a half,
i'd go over. If it was ten and a half,
I'd go under for sure. I'm gonna I'm gonna peg
Washington to go nine and eight this year and maybe
(38:52):
just miss the playoffs or just sneak.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
In to sneak in. And still this is such strides
from where they used to be. To me, last year's
whole goal was just like, get the stink of Daniel
Snyder out of the building.
Speaker 4 (39:03):
When was the last time they had back to back
winning seasons. There's probably been a long time.
Speaker 3 (39:07):
Now they have a quarterback, I mean, things were going
really well. I just expect a small step back.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
Agreed. Dallas Cowboys up next, just a step behind the
Washington Commanders. Dallas is at eight and a half matt
their schedule, the tenth most difficult in the National Football League.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
According to Warren Sharp, so leans towards tough.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
Leans towards tough eight and a half is the number
right now see on Warren Sharp's analysis. It was at
seven and a half, but they have recently moved up
to eight and a half. Has the Cowboys over under
If it was seven and a half, I would.
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Absolutely go over.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Yeah, I think I'm still leaning towards over Are you
winning record for Dallas this year? Yeah, that's basically what
this question is, asking they got a winning record or
a losing record.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
This is a cop out, but I really wish I
knew if MICHAELH. Parsons was gonna be a Dallas count totally.
Speaker 4 (39:58):
I mean, it's a big difference.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
If he gets WOP for draft picks and it doesn't
help you win. Now, I think that defense is a
chance to be bad, you know where I think it'll
be average to decent with him. He's that good a player.
I'm gonna go over with you. A lot of it's
just because I trust the offense. I think the coaching
change is going to go in their favor. Their O line,
(40:19):
like the Steelers, is really young, but they've invested in
it a lot with high picks, and that usually pays off.
People forget this about Dak not this past year, but
the year before. He was runner up in the MVP voting.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Right, I mean like he was outstanding.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
He was outstanding, and that's more who he is than
in public.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
Until last year, excuse me, until last year, those ribs
that they had out in the break room were.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Getting to they were tasting.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Until last year, I believe the Cowboys were on a
four year streak of winning twelve or more games. Yeah,
every season, does that sound right? Until until last year,
I think it was four straight years they won twelve
or more.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
Yeah, I saw something recently, just wins over the last
ten years, they're like second or third.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
Now, that's where kind of the laughing nature of like
they'd come into the playoffs and fall flat on their
face in the first round every year. Right, But they
were still going twelve and five in the regular season.
Speaker 3 (41:11):
I mean, there's some Pittsburgh similarities there. I know the
organizations could be more different, But when's the last time
you won a Super Bowl? When's the last time you
want a playoff game? You know? Yeah, but they win
a lot of games.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
And that's what this exercise has been.
Speaker 3 (41:22):
We're here, Yeah, so I like the over.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
I'm going over yeah as well too.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
If it was big pickings helps them a lot. Nobody
wants to mean.
Speaker 2 (41:32):
There might be and again, especially pending Michael Parsons, there
might be some Bengals from last year vibes about this
Cowboys team. But the Bengals from last year went nine
and eight. Still, right right, I think that's about that.
That's my kind of synopsis for Dallas this year, if
I had to guess right now as well, last one
(41:53):
the New York Giants, the g Men, the Football Giants.
Five and a half is there over and undertied for
or you know, second worst in the league with the Jets,
the Saints, and the Titans, and they have they have
the most difficult schedule in the National Football League.
Speaker 4 (42:09):
Do the Giants? Matt I take it away?
Speaker 2 (42:14):
This is another I think this is a pretty easy
under for me. Okay, Like, do I see this team
winning six games? No, If there's a scenario where they
don't bottom out and only win two or three, fine, yeah,
But like if they win five games right now, I
think that's the ceiling.
Speaker 4 (42:30):
I'm going under five and a half.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
So this one's really interesting to me because if you
don't mind, just pull up their schedule super quick, because
we know it's hard, but when you start rattling off
week after week, it's awful. I mean, because I think
they're favored in like one game this year, going back
to oh my gosh, look at the start of their
nothing easy about it ever.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
On the road against the Commanders on the road against
the Cowboys. Back home against the Chiefs LA Chargers at home, Okay,
on the road to the same I.
Speaker 3 (43:00):
Think that's the game they're favored. I think they're favored
in one game this year right.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
Now, back home against the Eagles, out to Mile High Waffel.
Back on the road against the Eagles, I mean, hosting
the Niners like they might win one.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
They could be one and ten at this.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Point, one and nine absolutely, and then again kind of
like what we talked about in Cleveland, if you're one
or nine, two and eight to where are you're going
from there?
Speaker 3 (43:23):
I mean, that's kind of where I'm bringing it up,
because I Russell Wilson, no matter what, they're gonna be
way better at quarterback than they were last year. Say
what you want about Russ, but he's a lot better
than Daniel Jones, Tommy Cutlets and right or right. But
there's gonna be a time here where Jackson Dart gets
the call. I mean, they're not going to have a
winning record in November. There's no chance. I mean, it's
(43:46):
just too brutal. They Also, the short end of it is,
I think the Giants are in a way better spot
than they were a year ago and will have a
better year. I just don't they'll win any games, you know,
Like their best offensive lineman, the only good one they have,
Andrew Thomas, missed.
Speaker 4 (44:04):
The entire yees and he's back.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
They're d line now with Abdull Carter rivals of Steelers
for best in the league. And I think they have
a really good defense. Neighbors to me is an utter star,
better quarterback, play stability, whether you like the coach or not,
at least to bringing back the same staff, like, I
think they'll be noticeably better. And I hope for Giants
Nation that it doesn't go this way. Boy, you made
(44:28):
big shrides. Dart looks like the guy, but you end
up with three wins because you had the worst schedule ever.
And we're gonna fire everyone and the new staff doesn't
like Dart. You know, that's just how the league, and they
take nuss Meyer or whatever, and then the Steelers trade
for Darder or you know whatever. You know, Like, it's
just the stability of the Steelers goes a long way
(44:49):
when that happens so often to teams. I'm gonna go over.
But I think it's a really dumb beat.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
I'm glad we're sitting here like on some of these
today though.
Speaker 3 (44:59):
That's the only reason I kind of did it, because
I knew the schedule was bad. But when you put
the graphic up right in front of the face, I'm like,
where are the wins coming from?
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Especially again at the start of the season two, and
if you start one and nine or two and.
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Eight, like, it's not gonna get much better, even if.
Speaker 4 (45:14):
Your schedule gets easier.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Everyone's already thinking about CanCon and where they're going in January.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
Yeah, and I am my Hammi's hurting. Should I play
or not?
Speaker 2 (45:22):
Business decision?
Speaker 3 (45:23):
Right? Yeah? Like I see that Saints game, I'm like, Okay,
they're they're favored in that one, I assume, but it's
in New Orleans they.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
Could be going for at that point, right, and even
if they win that one, one and four, then they
got the Eagles, the Broncos and the Eagles the.
Speaker 4 (45:35):
Next three weeks.
Speaker 3 (45:37):
Right, and like some of the games.
Speaker 4 (45:38):
You're Denver at mile High and some of the.
Speaker 3 (45:40):
Games are maybe winnable. I see on there, like the
Bears and the Raiders. Sure those guys are better teams
than the Giants. I mean there's the Packers. Commanders play.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
I mean that schedule like tough.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
They play the NFC North. That's a terrible schedule. Tough, yeah,
real tough.
Speaker 2 (45:55):
Yeah, I'm a I'm an easy under on that. Yeah,
five and a half.
Speaker 3 (45:58):
I don't feel good about you, Matt.
Speaker 2 (46:01):
That's the NFC East. We'll do the rest of the
NFC next week, selling a plan to you. How about
this final hour this week is going to be all
fantasy football. We will get into your wide receiver power
round to start the hour, and then we'll do some
mock draft style stuff to close down today and this
week we'll do all of that in hour number two.
It's the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and the Steelers
(46:23):
Audio Network.
You were tuned about drive on your twenty four to
seven Home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
What's going on, Steelers Nation Radio. It is the Drive
here on the Steelers Audio Network. West Shooler and Matt
Williamson with you for the next two hours on your
twenty four to seven Home of the Black and the
Gold before we head to What I dare say, Matt,
is a long holiday weekend.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Yeah, well deserved for all of us.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I'm looking forward to it.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
Yeah, certainly.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
I know you've got some plans with some of your
buddies and some fantasy football drafts.
Speaker 4 (00:53):
I'll be going down to Morgantown.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
For the Robert Morris University Stellar.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
First time in program histories that the universities have played
each other.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
It's kind of cool. I kind of like your chances.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
I like our chances there. Yes, but there will be
I think plenty of people making the trip down seventy
nine to Morgantown. So yeah, one last kind of weekend
for all of us to breathe before we really will
hit the ground running starting on Tuesday.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
We will have a ton of Jets stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Mike Tomlin will speak Tuesday afternoon as well too, So
any news in terms of I think especially some of
the injuries that we've been speculating on.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
And things like that have official stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
We will have official designations and all and all of
that as well too.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
So in a week from today, there's gonna be an
NFL game, which is awesome in a real game with
like all the starters and matters and all that stuff.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
And a good one, great rivalry between two good teams.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
And Michael Parsons will be involved or not. But Dallas
is going to Philly, I mean, great stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
George Pickens certainly will be and so we'll get our
first look at him in a different uniform. So plenty
to get to between now and Tuesday, though, still of course,
and Matt, I think we start today with all the
latest roster moving and shaken.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, last time we got together, we had not had
a practice squad yet, and since then so much happened.
Sometimes in twenty four hours we.
Speaker 4 (02:13):
Got warned that was going to be the cashors.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I mean, that's just the way it goes. And some
of these people are some of our fans are listening
obviously hours after record and it's just the podcast world.
But it's better than live radio that doesn't exist back
in the day, you know. But anyway, since we you
and I got together last, there is a practice squad announced.
I think that's definitely worth going over some familiar names.
(02:37):
And they made two moves off of it already, you know,
So things are We always say that fifty three is
not setting stone, folks, It's right.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Not even sett in stone usually for about twenty four hours,
definitely not forty eight hours. And yes, since we've last conversed,
there has been plenty of moving and shaking. Let's start
with you want to start with the changes to the
act of raw here before we go to practice squad?
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Does that make sense?
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Other way you want to do disco area chronological what
kind of makes a little more sense and people will
understand where these guys came from and all that.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Sure.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
So if you will recall Tuesday, four o'clock four point
thirty was when was when the initial fifty three man
roster came out and.
Speaker 3 (03:19):
We were on the air and just boom and dude.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
That was a hectic day.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
There was a lot going on.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
My reading comprehension let me down, and I thought Najie
Harris was going back onto a list.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
They were throwing left and right.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Throwing things at us left and right. But then Wednesday
we got these Steelers sixteen man practice squad. Five defensive
backs Beanie Bishop, the rookie Sebastian Castro, DeShawn Jamison, James Pierre,
and then hoping on a move and train himself, mister
Darryl Porter, two defensive linemen Kyler Baugh and de Marvin Leonon.
(03:53):
One linebacker the German Knife Julius Venschoff, as Max Starks
calls him. Two off of lineman Dylan Cook and Stephen Jones,
two running backs Lou Nichols and Tray Sarmon, one tight
end JJ Gallbreath, and three wide receivers Max Harlman listed
as a wide receiver, Kashawn Williams, and the veteran Robert Woods.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
So since COVID you're allowed to put some veterans on there,
you should just be young guys, you know, So Robert
Woods counts, you know, I mean, that's.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Fine, les be infested at this point.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Yeah, good point. I definitely have some takeaways. The first
one is it's pretty odd that you build your entire
first practice squad of guys you had. I mean there's
nobody from outside the organization.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
That it's a great point. Yeah, there's nobody. Oh we
want to get a look at this guy.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Let's get well, I gotta do homework on him. Never
heard of him, you know, that type of thing. So
they obviously liked the guys they had, and I remember
Tomlin even saying we have a good ninety you know, like,
I think that they believe that in their money's where
their mouth is, or they wouldn't have kept these guys.
Certainly some initial impressions are I would have loved another
(05:06):
O lineman out there. But part two of this will
make this a little easier too, because they did make
an O line move today. Leal they list is a
D lineman, but I think he's really an OLB for
this reason. Yeah, so you don't have all that stock
just in Welshoff, who's free. I mean, so if I'm
(05:27):
not sure Welshoff makes a team if he's from Montana
or Alabama or you know what, exactly, who knows? We
were when we talked about the initial roster, we made
note that the D line, the big guys were really heavy.
There are eight of them, so there's only really one
true D lineman on the practice squad, bah, who I
(05:50):
frankly know the least about of all these guys. I mean,
he was kind of I think he was late to
the party too. Yes, I know they do like him,
and a couple of people late late in training camp
mentioned him to me, but I didn't study them like
I should. So they already have eight guys on the
roster and so only one big guy that's not a problem.
So there are nine Steelers at least that are d linemen.
(06:10):
We also mentioned the defensive backs were really weird and
worrisome in terms of just numbers on Tuesday when we
initially reacted, And there's five defensive backs out there, so
obviously they balanced that out, as are these next upcoming moves. Yes,
and a couple of names. I was just really happy
(06:31):
that everyone, many fans listeners worry so much around cut day, like,
oh man, if you cut Lee out, someone's gonna get.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Them, or you know, or Skyler everyone on Twitter thought
beating Bishop was gone.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Yeah, exactly, And people don't get picked up as much
as you think, is the bottom line, because it's a
lot of work for the new team that right now
is just like the Steelers worried about the Jets. It's
not let's coach up the new corner that has no
klues doing. I don't time for that stuff.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
Is what the whole last month was for.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah, and I think we used the example it's not
like picking up a right fielder and just shoving them in.
Go hit fifth, you know you'll be fine, correct. But
I was also happy the two backs they brought back.
They were exactly the names we kind of discussed that
we're good, just missed guys. I still have hoped for
Dylan Cook and Stephen Jones, and I love that they're tackles,
you know, not just center onlys or anything like that.
(07:24):
And Hurlman, to me, is an exciting, perfect example of
I want to get them to camp next year totally.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
You know, we've mentioned that a few times.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Yep, yep.
Speaker 2 (07:33):
And I think that I think you're spot on. I
think if the names that if you would have you know, Tuesday,
when that initial fifty three came out and you told
Steeler fans, hey picked five names that aren't on the
roster that you want to protect on the practice squad.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
Pierre I think would have been there.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Beanie would have been there, Leal would have been there,
Max Harlman would have been there. I mean, that's for
cook and Castro come to mind cooking certainly. So I
think you're you're fortunate that that worked out in that regard.
But like you said, I think that's one of those
things too. There's there's not as much of the stealing
of guys as.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
A lot of work for the new team.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
And back when you had you know, distinct cut down days,
I think it was a little bit easier because you
had a little bit more time to coach a guy
up and see what he had as to Now again,
like you said, you're getting ready for the Jets like
nothing else.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Matters, Nothing else matters, And just think about it. If
you're the Steelers, are any of the other thirty one
front offices, Yes you see some cuts coming down the line,
not exactly at four, but for the most part, officially
the NFL will send you an email. I assume here
are the nine hundred people that were cut all at once.
(08:44):
I mean, no matter how deep your scouting staff is
and what prep you did, that's a lot to digest.
That's a tidal wave of cut dudes, you know what
I mean?
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Right?
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Who you're putting a claimant out of this group, like
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (08:57):
No, it's that's that's a very good point too. And
even if there's like a couple of people that you're
pounding the table for that, even is still a process
of like, yeah, right, let's go up the chain of
command here and see who.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
We're gonna have to make that happen, and right, would.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
You rather type conversations that Again, they don't necessarily have
as much time to do that as they used to
on the third day of August, you know, when the
regular season was still was still five weeks away.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
And seventy five percent of those cut guys you expected
to get cut or more. But still it's a lot
of names to hit you at once.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
It sure is.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
And then even more movement off of that this morning, Matt,
the roster moves continue for the stillers as they bring
back two other familiar names in Chuck Clark and Max
Sharping of course safety and guard and placed two moves
that I think we all knew were coming. It was
just a when, not an if. Will Howard and Dante
(09:52):
kent to the reserved injured list.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
So my initial impressions there are I assume they told
Clark and Sharping Unfortunately, guys, we have to release you
and for forty or for twenty four hours. Yeah, please
don't answer your phone. I understand if you do, but
you're gonna be unemployed, and we definitely want to bring
you back. And that adds up with how they built
their initial fifty three. But there's a chance they could
(10:16):
have left. I mean that those guys don't have to
come back. Somebody else could have called them whatever. They
both put out a lot of preseason tape, and maybe
somebody steals them up or offers them a better deal.
But my take on it was two things. A lot
of people tweeted me, so Steelers are keeping four so
(10:37):
they can spend longer time to shop Skyler for a pick.
I never thought that was it at all, But maybe,
I mean, maybe, did somebody report that around Pittsburgh that
I don't know about. I don't know because for whatever reason,
I got that question a bit interesting. And am I god,
wonder if.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Somebody did report that or if that's just wishful thinking.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah, maybe, And hey, if I would listen for forty
eight hours or whatever, if somebody wants to give you
something decent for him, great, But those other two draft picks,
I think this implies they liked them a lot. They
never wanted to lose control of them. You know, you
can even bring them back if need be, and you
know so, I think they have high hopes for Kent
and Howard.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
I was going to say the quarterback conversation always feels
like a separate one, Like everyone knows that they want
to see Will Howard. He's going to play a lot
in the preseason next year, you know, all those all
those different things. Yeah, Dante Kent, that's the one that
that's like as I think that's a very good sign
for him.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Though.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
I thought so in terms of how that because, like
you said, he was almost the forgotten pick of this class.
He got injured early in camp and it's not like
he was a second or third or fourth round pick, and.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
I was supposed ton't even know who he was when
he got drafted.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
Exactly exactly right. And for him to despite that lack
of visibility and and and and reps and and all
those things, I think that means they are very high
on this guy.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
That was my biggest take away from the moves today
is I bet they really want Kent in the organization.
They must, they must, they must, So yeah, maybe they'd
a fifth round grade on them, probably do. I mean
that's kind of how the draft.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
Works, certainly, certainly, so there.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Could be more moves to come. But these all add up,
you know.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
They do, and so we you know, there is now
the extra offensive linemen, which makes sense now, the safety
that we knew had to be added, you know at
some point, and a practice squad that has two defensive
backs on it that you, hey, if you had to
break that's easy for me to say, if you had
(12:36):
to break glass in case of emergency in Pierre and Bishop,
two guys that you're familiar with that are experience that
have played meaningful snaps at the NFL level. I think
it makes some of the remaining questions that we asked
on Tuesday got.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Answered, got answered, Yeah, yeah, and people that might have
missed it. Trice is on IR as well, So that's
another corner that is not out of the organization that
they still like obviously, and I do think it's a
little odd, and I bet it doesn't keep up for
many more weeks. They do only have four corners available
right now. The top three in Echols, which they absolutely
(13:14):
can play the Jets with four corners, no doubt. Sure,
but they maybe Pierre comes right back on for special
teams reasons real shortly into the season, who knows, and
or maybe when they think they can't keep that eighth
off defensive lineman, he gets replaced by a corn.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
And remember too, with some of these VESTA guys like
James Pierre, if they're not active Week one, that makes
their money for the rest of the season not guaranteed, yes, right,
which is kind of a big deal from an Omar
con standpoint of being all about cap and dollars and
cents and structure, and that's a big deal.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
So that's a note as well.
Speaker 3 (13:52):
So I think Sharping and Clark are guaranteed now.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
I believe.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
So, Yeah, they weren't on the original they got cut,
so I'm not sure.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
For as long as they just stay on the active
roster until you know, next Sunday.
Speaker 3 (14:07):
For not certain of that now.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
I think for another nine days, I think they. I
think it's whoever is on the active roster on game
day Week one. If you are a vested veteran, your
contract is guaranteed for the rest of the season.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
So they're probably safe with that. Yes, good for them,
you know, right.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
Yeah, So there you have it. There's the latest moving,
shaken developments as it relates to the Steelers fifty three,
the practice squad, the injured reserve list, all of those
different movements and everything. They're going to take a break
when we come back.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
Matt a little.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Matt's Stats esque conversation about implied projected points. Yeah, across
the NFL this season. Well, we'll go to the classroom
with Professor Williamson. He returned on the other side, West Shieler,
Matt Williams, and it is the Drive on Steelers Nation
Radio on the Steelers Audio Network, your tunes.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
About Drive on your twenty four to seven home of
the Black and Goals. Steelers Nation Radio.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Back on the Drive here on a Thursday, as the
final kind of quiet week for football comes to a
conclusion here holiday weekend, and then Man college football will
be off and running with a couple of big games
on Saturday. Yeah, we talked about this.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Yeah, I mean, I'm super psyched. I mean I'm gonna
be people know that this is a weekend of the
bauchery for me with my buds. I can't wait, I'm jealous,
but I'm definitely setting aside Texas, Ohio State to watch
every snap buckled down.
Speaker 4 (15:58):
U Clemson in the evenings. I mean a good one
as well too.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
And I urge people to we talk up Dane Brugler
a lot from the athletic. He put out something today
that I haven't read yet, but I will take it
with me for the weekend. Every prospect to watch in
all the big games. So again, I watch games for prospects, Yes, yeah.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Yes, indeed, and there's some certainly in Ohio State, Texas
and some of these other big games this weekend.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
Might be a future stealer of quarterback playing this weekend, certainly,
LSU guy game.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Folks certainly could be a couple couple candidates, without a doubt, Matt,
before we get there. One of the things that I
wanted to peel back the curtain on with you here
or dig deep into whatever is the right way to
describe it. I've enjoyed, you know, I always enjoy getting
to do radio with you, but as we've been doing
more of that in the last month or so than
(16:46):
we ever have together. Every night slash morning, I get
a couple emails something here. I love it, and it's like, hey,
check this out. This could be a really fun segment.
Hey look at this. This is this is good stuff.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
As Dale can attest, it'll be like a segment question mark.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Which is great because you almost send me the email
like it's.
Speaker 4 (17:06):
A text message.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
Yeah, Like the subject line will be segment question mark,
and then just the body of the email. Do it.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
Do what you want with this. But if it's something interesting,
let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
Well, I would say almost all of what you said
me is interesting. And one of those things was twenty
twenty five implied projected points?
Speaker 4 (17:25):
So how many sorts?
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Confusing to people for a minute.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Yeah, how many points teams are? Is this broken down
on it? Let's let's start, you know, thirty thousand feet
and then we'll zoom in. Is this broken down as
points per game, points per season? How does this?
Speaker 3 (17:39):
How does this roll out? Vegas implied projected points? Okay,
that's a mouthful, you know, like I say that five times?
What are you talking about?
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Now?
Speaker 3 (17:49):
This is not an exact science by any stretch of
the imagination. It's not you We don't know what's going
to happen in week ten and week twelve especially, No
have a better idea early in the season than late.
All the bestquarterbacks in league could all get hurt and
this could go flush right down the toilet.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, if Josh Allen gets hurt in Week one, Buffalo's.
Speaker 3 (18:05):
Not right right right. That being said, so Vegas is smart.
We've established that, you know, a lot of our Warren
Sharp stuff is based off Vegas odds and lines and
things of that nature. And they're big ass buildings in
Vegas are not built.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
For because of them losing, losing very off.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
They're pretty smart. So we've gotten so far in the
betting world that we can use this as a tool
for fantasy football, you know, football analysis. And here's how
they came up with these numbers. You can go to
any I'm not a betting expert, but you can in
some way, shape or form, any of us could go
(18:45):
bet on any game this NFL season. You could bet
on the Steelers Week twelve game, the Jets Week fourteen game,
and there is a line currently, so Week ten, let's
say the Giants are playing the Jets whatever. I'm just
pulling it out of the thin air, and the over
under for that game is forty three and the Jets
(19:06):
are favored by three. The implied total of that game
is Jets twenty three, Giants twenty. Yes, that adds upright, folks.
So I'm trying to make it as simple as possible.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
With makes a lot of rep even if you're not
into gambling and all that. That makes it perfect sense.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
So if you look at every line and every over
under total, you can accumulate every team's implied projected points.
And that's what this chart is.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
Yeah, yeah, over under what Vegas thinks how many points
are going to be scored in the game versus what's
the line?
Speaker 4 (19:38):
What's the spread between the two teams?
Speaker 3 (19:40):
And we know that their over under is not going
to hit exactly, and the spread's not gonna hit exactly,
but that's the implied total, you know, right.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
If the over unders forty three and a half, yep,
one team's favored by three and a half, something like
twenty three to twenty is the implied exactly final score.
Speaker 3 (19:54):
And so so if it's thirty nine.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
By the way, I meant to tell you I heard
you on the what was the last the Carolina Panthers.
You and our buddy shirtless Tom, Tommy Radio more. He's
got more nicknames.
Speaker 4 (20:09):
Than Rick Flairs.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
I mean, I tell you he's got more names than
the Rock You and Tom and I heard you on
there and you made a thirteen to nine joke, you know,
very very well done.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
Yes, I know he's a pick guy too.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
So hey, I mean he went to Duquine. Don't give
him that much, but he is. But he is a big.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
He's a huge.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
He's got season tickets and all that stuff.
Speaker 3 (20:29):
So Underdog Fantasy put this graph out, you know, basically saying,
when in doubt, draft fantasy players from team to score
more points.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
Duh, duh.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
But it's also great for Steeler analysis. Where are the
Browns on here? Where the Bengals on here? Raven's on here?
You know, like, who are the best offenses in the league?
And this is not anyone making it up.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
This isn't a list of This isn't Mane.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Dale's or Matt and West's favorite.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
Isn't this isn't your wide receiver power rankings, which we're
going to get to the second hour of the show,
right all.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
Right, this is what Vegas thinks is the best bets.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
Buffalo at the top of the list, right on their
heels is Baltimore.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Okay. Now, a lot of this also reflects like what
we talked about yes strike schedule and playing Bills don't
play a really tough schedule, so they're favored in almost
all their games by a substantial amount and are expected
to score a ton of points. Of those two quarterbacks,
I don't think anyone's shocked that they're the two teams
expected to be the highest scorers. I think it's interesting
to go through the top ten or so in the
(21:31):
bottom ten and where the Steelers are.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
That's that's what I wanted to do here.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Number three is a little interesting to me, not because
I don't think they're a good offense. I wouldn't have
had them third. I would have thought they'd certainly be
top ten. But Detroit is number three.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Okay. I am almost certain we haven't got the NFC
over unders. I think they have like the second easiest
schedule in the.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
League they if I remember correct. I think I could
pull that up for you in just a second.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Because we were talking about that yesterday. I know that
they have some weird scheduling quirks, and they also have
a lot of things in their advantage in terms of
like rest before their games. And they're a good skin.
I mean, they're obviously a good offense.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
Yes, yes, we're giving this.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Here we go, I got it right here at the
very path.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
The Where are they?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Why can't I find them?
Speaker 3 (22:19):
Maybe they can't read I'm totally wrong. Maybe they're in
the middle.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
I can't read. Good.
Speaker 4 (22:23):
Where's the Lions on this list?
Speaker 2 (22:25):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (22:25):
There, here we go, thirdy third, most difficult.
Speaker 3 (22:28):
Most difficult. That does shock me, Imi. I assumed it
was third easiest since they're third on this implied projected points.
But they were talk of listed scoring last year.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
I think the and I don't expect them to take
some massive drop back step back, but they lost a
lot of that interior of their offensive line, they lost
their offensive coordinator. But they still, I think, will be
a top ten offense. Yeah, Number four the Commanders, okay,
number five, Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
So something we were talking about off the air, where
offense is more predictive than defense, Like any analytic people
will tell you that. And I think a lot of
it's just because quarterbacks touch the ball over play and
chances already bring back the same quarterback. Not everyone does.
But and this isn't great for the Steelers conversation, like,
I've never seen this list done for defense, but I
(23:18):
guess you could. I mean, you could do points allowed
a yeah, and I'm sure the Steelers are higher on
the list defensively than they are offensively. Yes, and they'd
be on any list. We do a better d than Oh,
but history shows if you have one of the best
any metric you want, you know, EPA, yards for play,
whatever you're into, the best offenses are the ones that
(23:40):
last the longest in the league, that that go the farthest.
You're like, the final four teams from last year I
think were the four best offenses in the league. When
it was all said, yes, you know, yes, that doesn't
bode well for the way the Steelers are currently constructed,
you know.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
And that's the point that's some of the underlying points
of this exercise. So yeah, So Washington for Kansas City five,
Eagles six nine or seven, Tampa Bay eight, Cincinnata nine,
and the Rams ten.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
That's your top ten.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
Yeah, and I assume that they're I assume they're assuming
Stafford's healthy. You know, a couple of things have changed,
you know, Tampa has had a couple injuries on offense,
Godwin and Wharfs and things like that. But still I
don't know that the lines in week twelve changed that
much now just because of those bits of news.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
That's a good point.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Yeah, But the teams just mentioned are been the best
teams in the league for.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
The most part. They certainly have.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
And what I.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Thought all of those except for well San Francisco and
Cincinnati where the two who were not playoff teams last year,
but the other eight of the top ten were in
the playoff last last year.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
Adds up greas other bottom will be much worse.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Yeah, exactly, and some of the teams right behind there,
Green Bay, Arizona, Denver, the Chargers, quality teams'll be the
quality teams. The Vikings pretty are down this list, which
surprised me.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
Wow a little bit.
Speaker 3 (25:03):
They were pretty high last year.
Speaker 4 (25:04):
They are twenty first.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
It looks like here that's noteworthy.
Speaker 2 (25:08):
That was one of the kind of ones that that
surprised me for how low they were. And then the
Steelers twenty sixth Matt on this list.
Speaker 3 (25:15):
That's not gonna get it done, No, it's not. I mean,
if you end up with the twenty sixth highest scoring offense,
in the league. That's not a successful season anyway you
get there.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
I completely agree.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
Even if you have the number one ranked defense right
with the twenty top way to win most you know,
successful offense or highest scoring offense is still a very
tough way to win.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And frankly, that's the way they've been winning over these
last five years or so. They win turnover differential like crazy,
great on special teams, great on defense, but it's tough
to win in the margins like that. It's easier just
to have Pat Mahomes and be at the top a
list orld be the Lions. Oh but yes, that's the
struggles the Steelers have dealt with lately, and Vegas expects
(25:57):
it to be sort of more of the same, which
isn't the best news.
Speaker 4 (26:01):
So it is not.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
But these are also implied projections. And as much as
they are statistically based, and we all know that Vegas
is accurate more than they are inaccurate, that also does
not mean that this is gospel or chiseledon.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
And this is the team we've talked about in the
camp a bunch. They're going to have a new leading passer,
a new leading receiver, new leading rusher.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Which has happened like fourteen times in the last and
the Super Bowl year in the last fifty some years.
Speaker 3 (26:27):
So I would imagine they're also one of the hardest
teams to handicap for Vegas.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Which have to be makes a ton of sense.
Speaker 4 (26:35):
Where do they need to be about?
Speaker 2 (26:37):
Let's okay, let's take middle of the road.
Speaker 3 (26:40):
Let's let's do a.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Pie in the sky scenario. Defense is a bonafide top
two or three defense in the NFL. Okay, Steelers defense
is truly elite, one of the best. If you do
this exercise on the defensive side of the football, at
the end of the year, they're top two or three.
Where's the offense need to be for you to think that,
you know, this team could still get to a postseason
and make some noise mid you know, sixteeneen to sixteen, yeah, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I think you'd be a real contender in those scenarios.
I mean, if yeah, I think you'd be one of
the top eight teams in the league.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
For sure, you might not be top five, but you
could be nipping on the heels.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
But you would probably be in the same tier. As
we look at the Bills and Ravens and those type
of teams. I mean, that's a pretty good combination. And
I'm sure they'll be fine on special teams. If not good,
I mean bos is gonna be good. You know, different question,
different way of phrasing. You have no clue what special
teams or defense is going to be. And it's a
(27:42):
game that Dale and I used to play. Would if
I said you would be twentieth, would you take it?
Or would you go fish? And say I'll you know
what I mean? Like right now, I'm like if I
come out of the the genie comes out of the bottle,
you know, Robin Williams and says you can have the
twentieth best offense. Do you want to Would you say,
(28:05):
all right, I'll take it? Or give me door number two?
I'll see where the chips fall.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
So this is like getting sixteen on blackjack exactly if
you set because in my mind I was thinking I
need the eighteenth.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
I would say twenty. I think I'm going fish.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
I think I'm going fish.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
I need because again I'm if it was eighteen, like
this is, if it's seventeen on the blackjack table, I'm
staying I'm probably hitting. I'm probably going fish. I need,
I need eighteen or better.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
That's why I started with twenty.
Speaker 4 (28:39):
That's good, it's a.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Really good that's a good over under there by you, Matt.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
But if I gave you fifteen, I'll take it. Yeah,
I mean, like i'll take it today. No clue what
the season entails, fifteen, I'll take it twenty.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
I'm going fish one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
Okay, the same Mark markt Then, Yeah, I mean I
don't I can't imagine top six or seven, No, you
know what I mean?
Speaker 2 (29:00):
No, no, no, I think that's been a little too greedy.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:03):
Yeah, yeah, but hey, anywhere from eighteen to thirteen or
we're we're cooking with gas real quick.
Speaker 3 (29:11):
Who are the bottom five or six?
Speaker 2 (29:14):
Cleveland is dead last, so the bottom by like a
wide margin.
Speaker 4 (29:18):
By a pretty wide margin.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
The bottom six below the Steelers are Vegas Titans, Jets, Giants,
g Nolins, and the last.
Speaker 3 (29:27):
Yeah, I mean those are the bad teams. Yeah. It's
an offense driven.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
League, No, it certainly is.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
It's hard to overcome average the below everage offense, and.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
The Steelers have done a lot of that over the
last couple of years. Yeah, but let's hope they don't
have to do that again this year, right.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
If you can just take another step forward on that
side of the ball.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
That's your professor Williamson, little something, little some something of
the day. Yeah, I dig it, and that is that's
one of those things that hey, you want to you
want to see that start to uptick with maybe as
as some some expectation.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
It's just a you can argue about, like, oh, they
should be higher. Well, I mean, go out there and
prove it. I say, everyone that's betting the tase right
now tends to disagree with you, you know.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Yeah, one more segment to go here in this hour.
Plenty to get too. Still as we roll along, we'll
have some fantasy football conversation today as well too.
Speaker 4 (30:19):
Wes Shuler, Matt Williamson.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
It is the Drive here on Steelers Nation Radio on
the Steelers Audio Network, your tuned.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
About Drive on your twenty four to seven home of
the Black and Goal.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Steelers Nation Radio. Closing down the first hour of the
Drive here on a Thursday. Reminder, this is our last
(30:52):
show of the week. We'll be back with you on
Tuesday to tee up the start of the NFL season,
the start of the Steelers slate of course heading to
MetLife Stadium. Never been to MetLife Stadium before, Matt. Like,
the two stadiums that I would still like to see
are MetLife and Jerry World. Other than that, I've been
fortunate to see all the new palaces.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
And you've probably been locking a lot of.
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Historic Lambeau and all that stuff, But I still.
Speaker 3 (31:22):
I have not been to many. I'm sure you probably because.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
What you've done isn't necessarily like yeah, but yeah, So
I'm excited to see Met Life. I haven't heard the
best things about it from a spectator standpoint from but
from our kind of standpoint of setting up a broadcast,
I think it'll be pretty cool.
Speaker 3 (31:38):
Nice.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
So yeah, excited for that. Excited for everything to get
really going next week. But with that, we've been going
over some over and unders this week. Let's take a
look at the NFC East today, Matt. That's the first
division that's going to be on the docket a week
from today. And I mentioned yesterday when we did the
AFC that there were four teams with over under of
(32:00):
eleven and a half that was the highest Baltimore, Buffalo
and Kansas City and the AFC and of course, the
defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles eleven and a half
matt their schedules. Their schedule is ranked as the fourth
most difficulty.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I know, it's a tough one in the nation.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
I think the East in.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
General has tough schedules, and the Giants are like the
way bottom of the list when we get to them.
Speaker 4 (32:23):
It has been I don't know.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
I think seventeen seventy six was the last time that
the NFC East had back to back champions. It's been forever.
But can the Eagles buck that trend this year?
Speaker 3 (32:37):
I'm going under and I actually kind of feel stronger
than you might think about it. And strength of schedule
has a lot to do with it. I mean that
you're at the bottom of the league in terms of
the easiest path, you know. I mean, I think that
definitely adds up. They probably have a winning record in
the division, but I don't think they sweep it. I
mean four and two seems like a logical, you know,
(33:00):
end of division records. You're not gonna sneak up on anybody.
I mean, there's there's some truth to that, you know that.
I'm sure without in front of me. They play a
lot of primetime games and difficult travel schedule and things
of that nature. Sure, and I definitely think that. And
we talked about this, like with Saquon Barkley when we
did like the fantasy running back ranks. Most of those
(33:23):
Eagles played a lot more snaps than their opponents this
past year, you know, I mean, you go deep into
the playoffs, you get that surgery a month later, that
clean up on your knee you do a month later
than the other teams, or man, I'm still not back
to one hundred percent, or you know, Lane Johnson, someone
just picking an old guy, you know, like, man, I'm dragging.
(33:43):
And they played a lot of postseason games. And as
great as the Eagles season was, there was a pretty
decent stretch during the season where they did not look
like the best team in the league. You know, like
they're they're asking aj Brown, what's wrong with this team?
He's like passing game, you know, right, And I don't
think Herts is an elite quarterback. So great respect for
the organization. I might even pick them to win Super
Bowls here, but I'm going under.
Speaker 4 (34:07):
I also really respect everything that they're doing there.
Speaker 3 (34:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, as much as I hate giving a team from
Philadelphia credit, although at least if it's not the Flyers,
I can stomach it. You like the more than the
Flyer certainly, certainly. And I did have a lot of fun.
I worked for that franchise for three years and so
I still know some people there and had a lot
of fun while I was out there. That was my
kind of break into the NFL and radio, and it
was a good time because with the organization when they
(34:31):
won their first ever Super Bowl, which was pretty cool.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
That's really cool.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
It was a lot of fun from a from a
work experience. But I think I'm with you on this one.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
I still think they will win double digit games, I'm sure,
be really good and.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
Be in the playoffs. Yeah, but I just I think
you're right.
Speaker 2 (34:48):
I think last year they had a lot of things
break their way in the regular season after kind of
a little bit of a rocky start.
Speaker 4 (34:55):
And they also it.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Feels like, you know, pretty pretty fortunate the health department
last year as well too. What if Saquon misses two
or three games, Sure, you know, what if hurts missus
two or three games, and they're still really good on defense,
But I don't think they're quite as loaded as they were.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Last year on side.
Speaker 3 (35:15):
Corner.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Yeah, so I'll go slightly under. Yeah, like I think
they'll win eleven games.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
These exercises pretty easy to just over over. They're great,
you know, twelve and six or twelve and five doesn't
seem hard to get to.
Speaker 4 (35:28):
It doesn't.
Speaker 3 (35:29):
But it's a long year and bad things happen.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Certainly, and it's a tough division as well, as we'll
see from some of these other over unders division.
Speaker 4 (35:36):
No, certainly not.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
They might sweep the Giants, everybody might sweep the Giants,
but we'll get to them in a few minutes. The
Washington Commanders up next, matt nine and a half is
there over and under this year, and they are kind
of right in the middle nineteenth easiest schedule in the NFL,
so twelve, Yeah, they're kind of right right in the
(36:00):
middle of the packet. Not terrible in terms of that regard,
not terrible, nineteenth easiest in the NFL. In the over
under number is nine and a half for a team
that was in the final four last year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
So I would have guessed, not looking at the graphic,
they were going to be one of the ten and
a half teams. I thought so too, so nine and
a half makes this a little harder because I was
real intent on going under for a couple of reasons.
They're the oldest team in the league including the Steelers, right,
and they have one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league.
(36:32):
But they invest over and over in Bobby Wagner and
Echolar and Ertz and now Tunsel and Debo and mclaura
and you know, like all older back nine guys, if
not seventeenth to eighteenth hole. Now this is real nerdy,
But there is a in the analytics world, there is
a principle called the plexiglass principle, and it shows.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Have anything to do with plexico Boris does it.
Speaker 3 (36:57):
It is not similar, but this shows up heavily in
the history of the NFL that when a team such
as Washington takes four steps forward, nine out of ten times,
you take at least a small step back one two steps.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (37:14):
Yeah, Like it's probably not just like boom, a giant mother,
may I step forward and then another one and you
win the Super Bowl and this because it's just not
that easy, you know. And like they were eighty or
ninety percent on fourth downs and they went for it
more than anyone Okay, maybe they're better at it than
the Steelers or Green Bay or whoever. But you're not
(37:34):
going to be ninety percent on those and those are
turnovers if you don't get them. You know, like Jayde
and Daniels looks tremendous, But what do you think every
defensive coordinator in the NFC East is doing right now?
They're watching Jayde Daniels film, you know what I mean?
Speaker 4 (37:49):
Correct?
Speaker 3 (37:49):
And I don't think their defense is particularly good. I
think that there are a lot like the Bengals in
terms of makeup. I think their offense is loaded. I
think they're playing a ton of shootouts. We just talked about.
Their projected points was really high, but I think they're
gonna allow a lot of points too.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
I think you're right.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
And as a team that is the oldest in the NFL,
it feels like they're gonna be prone to have more
bumps and bruises than everybody else.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
I wish this was ten and a half though, I'd
feel real good about the under.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
If it was ten and a half, I would take
the under for sure. If it was eight and a half,
I think i'd take the over.
Speaker 3 (38:21):
Yeah, it's the right number.
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Like to me, they feel like a team that will
win eight or nine games this year.
Speaker 3 (38:27):
I don't think they're a super Bowl contender.
Speaker 4 (38:29):
I don't either.
Speaker 3 (38:29):
Some do and I don't agree with that.
Speaker 2 (38:32):
I think they are a playoff contender, yes, yeah, but
I don't think they are a super Bowl contender. Very
tough division. Yeah, I'm gonna go under as well too. Yeah,
I'm gonna go. If it was eight and a half,
i'd go over. If it was ten and a half,
I'd go under for sure. I'm gonna I'm gonna peg
Washington to go nine and eight this year and maybe
(38:52):
just miss the playoffs or just sneak.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
In to sneak in. And still this is such strides
from where they used to be. To me, last year's
whole goal was just like, get the stink of Daniel
Snyder out of the building.
Speaker 4 (39:03):
When was the last time they had back to back
winning seasons. There's probably been a long time.
Speaker 3 (39:07):
Now they have a quarterback, I mean, things were going
really well. I just expect a small step back.
Speaker 2 (39:13):
Agreed. Dallas Cowboys up next, just a step behind the
Washington Commanders. Dallas is at eight and a half matt
their schedule, the tenth most difficult in the National Football League.
Speaker 3 (39:27):
According to Warren Sharp, so leans towards tough.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
Leans towards tough eight and a half is the number
right now see on Warren Sharp's analysis. It was at
seven and a half, but they have recently moved up
to eight and a half. Has the Cowboys over under
If it was seven and a half, I would.
Speaker 4 (39:43):
Absolutely go over.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Yeah, I think I'm still leaning towards over Are you
winning record for Dallas this year? Yeah, that's basically what
this question is, asking they got a winning record or
a losing record.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
This is a cop out, but I really wish I
knew if MICHAELH. Parsons was gonna be a Dallas count totally.
Speaker 4 (39:58):
I mean, it's a big difference.
Speaker 3 (39:59):
If he gets WOP for draft picks and it doesn't
help you win. Now, I think that defense is a
chance to be bad, you know where I think it'll
be average to decent with him. He's that good a player.
I'm gonna go over with you. A lot of it's
just because I trust the offense. I think the coaching
change is going to go in their favor. Their O line,
(40:19):
like the Steelers, is really young, but they've invested in
it a lot with high picks, and that usually pays off.
People forget this about Dak not this past year, but
the year before. He was runner up in the MVP voting.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Right, I mean like he was outstanding.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
He was outstanding, and that's more who he is than
in public.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
Until last year, excuse me, until last year, those ribs
that they had out in the break room were.
Speaker 3 (40:44):
Getting to they were tasting.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Until last year, I believe the Cowboys were on a
four year streak of winning twelve or more games. Yeah,
every season, does that sound right? Until until last year,
I think it was four straight years they won twelve
or more.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
Yeah, I saw something recently, just wins over the last
ten years, they're like second or third.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
Now, that's where kind of the laughing nature of like
they'd come into the playoffs and fall flat on their
face in the first round every year. Right, But they
were still going twelve and five in the regular season.
Speaker 3 (41:11):
I mean, there's some Pittsburgh similarities there. I know the
organizations could be more different, But when's the last time
you won a Super Bowl? When's the last time you
want a playoff game? You know? Yeah, but they win
a lot of games.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
And that's what this exercise has been.
Speaker 3 (41:22):
We're here, Yeah, so I like the over.
Speaker 4 (41:25):
I'm going over yeah as well too.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
If it was big pickings helps them a lot. Nobody
wants to mean.
Speaker 2 (41:32):
There might be and again, especially pending Michael Parsons, there
might be some Bengals from last year vibes about this
Cowboys team. But the Bengals from last year went nine
and eight. Still, right right, I think that's about that.
That's my kind of synopsis for Dallas this year, if
I had to guess right now as well, last one
(41:53):
the New York Giants, the g Men, the Football Giants.
Five and a half is there over and undertied for
or you know, second worst in the league with the Jets,
the Saints, and the Titans, and they have they have
the most difficult schedule in the National Football League.
Speaker 4 (42:09):
Do the Giants? Matt I take it away?
Speaker 2 (42:14):
This is another I think this is a pretty easy
under for me. Okay, Like, do I see this team
winning six games? No, If there's a scenario where they
don't bottom out and only win two or three, fine, yeah,
But like if they win five games right now, I
think that's the ceiling.
Speaker 4 (42:30):
I'm going under five and a half.
Speaker 3 (42:32):
So this one's really interesting to me because if you
don't mind, just pull up their schedule super quick, because
we know it's hard, but when you start rattling off
week after week, it's awful. I mean, because I think
they're favored in like one game this year, going back
to oh my gosh, look at the start of their
nothing easy about it ever.
Speaker 2 (42:51):
On the road against the Commanders on the road against
the Cowboys. Back home against the Chiefs LA Chargers at home, Okay,
on the road to the same I.
Speaker 3 (43:00):
Think that's the game they're favored. I think they're favored
in one game this year right.
Speaker 2 (43:03):
Now, back home against the Eagles, out to Mile High Waffel.
Back on the road against the Eagles, I mean, hosting
the Niners like they might win one.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
They could be one and ten at this.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
Point, one and nine absolutely, and then again kind of
like what we talked about in Cleveland, if you're one
or nine, two and eight to where are you're going
from there?
Speaker 3 (43:23):
I mean, that's kind of where I'm bringing it up,
because I Russell Wilson, no matter what, they're gonna be
way better at quarterback than they were last year. Say
what you want about Russ, but he's a lot better
than Daniel Jones, Tommy Cutlets and right or right. But
there's gonna be a time here where Jackson Dart gets
the call. I mean, they're not going to have a
winning record in November. There's no chance. I mean, it's
(43:46):
just too brutal. They Also, the short end of it is,
I think the Giants are in a way better spot
than they were a year ago and will have a
better year. I just don't they'll win any games, you know,
Like their best offensive lineman, the only good one they have,
Andrew Thomas, missed.
Speaker 4 (44:04):
The entire yees and he's back.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
They're d line now with Abdull Carter rivals of Steelers
for best in the league. And I think they have
a really good defense. Neighbors to me is an utter star,
better quarterback, play stability, whether you like the coach or not,
at least to bringing back the same staff, like, I
think they'll be noticeably better. And I hope for Giants
Nation that it doesn't go this way. Boy, you made
(44:28):
big shrides. Dart looks like the guy, but you end
up with three wins because you had the worst schedule ever.
And we're gonna fire everyone and the new staff doesn't
like Dart. You know, that's just how the league, and they
take nuss Meyer or whatever, and then the Steelers trade
for Darder or you know whatever. You know, Like, it's
just the stability of the Steelers goes a long way
(44:49):
when that happens so often to teams. I'm gonna go over.
But I think it's a really dumb beat.
Speaker 2 (44:56):
I'm glad we're sitting here like on some of these
today though.
Speaker 3 (44:59):
That's the only reason I kind of did it, because
I knew the schedule was bad. But when you put
the graphic up right in front of the face, I'm like,
where are the wins coming from?
Speaker 2 (45:07):
Especially again at the start of the season two, and
if you start one and nine or two and.
Speaker 3 (45:11):
Eight, like, it's not gonna get much better, even if.
Speaker 4 (45:14):
Your schedule gets easier.
Speaker 2 (45:15):
Everyone's already thinking about CanCon and where they're going in January.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
Yeah, and I am my Hammi's hurting. Should I play
or not?
Speaker 2 (45:22):
Business decision?
Speaker 3 (45:23):
Right? Yeah? Like I see that Saints game, I'm like, Okay,
they're they're favored in that one, I assume, but it's
in New Orleans they.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
Could be going for at that point, right, and even
if they win that one, one and four, then they
got the Eagles, the Broncos and the Eagles the.
Speaker 4 (45:35):
Next three weeks.
Speaker 3 (45:37):
Right, and like some of the games.
Speaker 4 (45:38):
You're Denver at mile High and some of the.
Speaker 3 (45:40):
Games are maybe winnable. I see on there, like the
Bears and the Raiders. Sure those guys are better teams
than the Giants. I mean there's the Packers. Commanders play.
Speaker 2 (45:48):
I mean that schedule like tough.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
They play the NFC North. That's a terrible schedule. Tough, yeah,
real tough.
Speaker 2 (45:55):
Yeah, I'm a I'm an easy under on that. Yeah,
five and a half.
Speaker 3 (45:58):
I don't feel good about you, Matt.
Speaker 2 (46:01):
That's the NFC East. We'll do the rest of the
NFC next week, selling a plan to you. How about
this final hour this week is going to be all
fantasy football. We will get into your wide receiver power
round to start the hour, and then we'll do some
mock draft style stuff to close down today and this
week we'll do all of that in hour number two.
It's the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and the Steelers
(46:23):
Audio Network.
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