HR2: Final Over/Under

The Drive gives their final over/under win predictions for the NFC.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Your teams about drive on your twenty four to seven
home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Our number two of the drive here is we're getting
closer and closer to the real thing. A little over
twenty four hours from now, the NFL will be back
in action, of course, with a classic NFC East rivalry. Yeah,
the Michael Parsons list Cowboys against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.
They're gonna raise that banner? Can I okay, quick, little

(00:41):
pet peeve? The Eagles tomorrow night are gonna raise a
banner that's not the pet peeve. I know the Streeler.
I know the Steelers don't do that thing. Some teams
do whatever. Personal choice, personal choice, no wrong answer, no
right answer. One thing that bothers me is you go
to these stadiums where teams do hang banners like that, Matt,
and you'll see tonight the Eagles will hang one that

(01:02):
will say twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five World champions Oh,
I'm sorry. You grew up on the playground like I
did Recess sports. Never once did me and my buddies
go we just won the World Championship. We're playing for
the Super Bowl right right. Every sport does that. It
drives me nuts. I know this is a total aside,

(01:23):
but it's like when you were a kid and you're
standing on the in the batter's box. It's the bottom
of the ninth inning, two outs, World Series. No one's
going we won the World No, you wanted to win
a World Series. You wanted to win a Super Bowl,
you wanted to win a Stanley Cup. You don't want
to win a World championship. That just bothers me.

Speaker 3 (01:40):
Like I guess like hockey and basketball are more relevant.
I guess baseball would be two played around. You're not
the only league in town. Maybe you're the best one.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
You're definitely the best week.

Speaker 3 (01:51):
I'm going to fight you on that, but you didn't
beat every team in Italy. If you're in the Lakers.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
That's the talking point that a lot of people use,
But that doesn't even It's like the fact that like
none of those guys on the Eagles when they were
growing up, thought I want to win a world championship
to a super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
So along those lines, I think we had this conversation
at Sharkey's camp and that I think Mike brought it
up pursuit of that. If you walk in Duke and
you see the banners, the level of how good a
banner needs to be is a lot different than some places.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
Absolutely, it's like.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
Oh, we came in second in the ACC East, Like
that doesn't get up at Duke, you know what I mean,
Like we made the Sweet sixteen, like not.

Speaker 2 (02:35):
It's matt. When I was in the three years that
I lived and work in Philadelphia, I went up to
Boston one time for the bean Pot, which is a
big college hockey thing between Boston, Boston College, Harvard North
four Time, the four Division IE hockey schools in Boston.
It's a tournament that they have every year. It's a
big deal. And I remember like great end oh absolutely

(02:58):
absolutely guys a lot of guys playing for the Pens
and around the league that you know that went to
those that went to those schools. Absolutely going into the
Boston Garden. It's like half of it is Celtics retired
numbers and fifty championship. In the other half is it
is like we year Bruins retired players and like they're
five or six Stanley Cups. However many they have. There's

(03:18):
no division title banners hanging up there. Yeah, yeah, that
is That is the way it should be. But yeah,
I just tonight I'm gonna be like world champions. I don't.
I don't get it. You wanted to win the Super Bowl.
You won the Super Bowl. Take some pride in that, baby.

Speaker 3 (03:30):
I mean, I'm cool with like Yoager Lemu scoring title.
That's fine, But I don't need like won the Patrick
Division in nineteen eighty eight like that. That's not that great.
That's not a banner.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
The Colts have one hanging up that they always get
ripped on for it. It says twenty fifteen AFC Championship
game appearance that got down. Sometimes the jokes just right themselves, right, Matt.
Continuing our ongoing theme here of over and unders that
we spend some time on every day. We've been rounding
this out. Two more divisions left in the NFC. Let's

(04:02):
go to the NFC South today. That's all right with you?
Or Falcons, Panthers, Saints, and Bucks. I think probably no
surprise here. Tampa Bay has the highest over under in
that division with nine and a half. Their Warren Sharp
Strength of Schedule rating is the tenth easiest in the nation.

Speaker 3 (04:24):
Those six teams, and then that goes a long way.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
Yep, tenth easiest in the National Football League.

Speaker 3 (04:29):
Okay, even though they have a first play schedule, they
got the Eagles and the Lions and all those good teams,
they do get six pretty nice division games, and I'm
definitely gonna pick them to win their division. And as
we've done, I often look at these things like, well,
what do you think Their division record is probably good?
Five starting it's a good starting point. If you start
five and one, you go, what, you got another eleven

(04:51):
games to get to ten. That's a pretty good spot.
That being said, I got an emailed or a tweet
today talking about the and laid out every quarterback they
played last year. It's horrendous. I mean, like even like
when they got a couple of the young guys that
had good years, like Jane Daniels, it was like his

(05:12):
first career start or second career. You put Bonnicks on
the least, but you got it the right time. So
I do think their defense is a little overrated. You know,
it's no one thinks it's great, but I think it's
could come back to earth a little. They've got some injuries.
I might go under but I got a lot of

(05:32):
respect for them. I mean, I think they'll win the division.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
I do think they'll win the division, but they could
at nine and eight.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
That's the thing. They probably get the ten.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
If they go five and one on the division though.

Speaker 3 (05:42):
That's the thing. That's why I keep going backwards in
my head.

Speaker 2 (05:45):
That's a tough one.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
I'm gonna go over. I think you get the ten.

Speaker 2 (05:49):
Yeah, but I think they're definitely nine or ten wins.

Speaker 3 (05:51):
Yeah, I thought that number might be higher.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
Don't see a losing record. I don't know if I
see them getting to eleven though. Yeah, I think I
think I'll go to a ten and seven Tampa team
that year.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
Vegas is smartened up on these because it used to
be some teams would just get a flat number. It'd
be like ten. Not all of them were point fives, right,
And if they were a ten, I think nine's way
more likely than eleven. Completely agree, but I think they
get the ten.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
Completely agree.

Speaker 3 (06:17):
All you could do its five and six outside division.

Speaker 2 (06:19):
And when you look at these other three teams and
they're over and unders, it does not pay a pretty picture. Yeah,
Falcons next up seven and a half? Is there? Over
and under? They have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL,
according to Warren sharp.

Speaker 3 (06:31):
As, I said, the schedule really makes me go over
on this one, and I think they got a lot
of holes. I think they're a little bit overrated in
terms of they're ready to contend all this nonsense. Their
are lines already banged up. I don't think the defense
is fixed. But they probably went four in the division,
you know. I mean, the schedule's very favorable. I'll take
the over. I am a Penix believer.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
I am too. It's tough, though, I mean for them
to win eight games, I can definitely see it. I
might lean under though on this one though, I think
right in that seven or eight wins feels right.

Speaker 3 (07:06):
I think they have a lot of questions.

Speaker 2 (07:08):
They just have a lot of questions. And I think
Bijon is great, and you know they've got a a
no doubt number one wide receiver in Drake London, which
certainly is going to help a young quarterback. I think
I think I might go under that. I think I'm
gonna lean under on this one.

Speaker 3 (07:21):
Just the strength of schedule was middle of the road.
I'd go under because it's so it's a good point favorable.

Speaker 2 (07:27):
I'm gonna go I feel like I've taken way too
many overs. I need to hit some one.

Speaker 3 (07:30):
That's the thing. You get hooked and you can't can't.
You can't win them all.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
Carolina Panthers six and a half. They have the everyone
in this division a top ten East schedule, which makes
sense because they all play each other. Carolina Panthers six
and a half is there over underwin number seventh, easiest
schedule in the National Football League.

Speaker 3 (07:49):
I'm still going under.

Speaker 2 (07:51):
I think so too.

Speaker 3 (07:52):
We talked about Bryce Younger to win seven games.

Speaker 2 (07:55):
I don't see it.

Speaker 3 (07:57):
I still have some doubts about Bryce young I think
the supporting cast is pretty good better. I think they've
had better coach than they've had. I mean, the organizations
finally go in the right direction for the first time
under Tepper, since he's bought it. I still think the defense,
which was like by far the worst in the league
last year struggle, is gonna be way below average, though

(08:18):
I think still another offseas or two away.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
That's the big kicker for me is I think their
defense is going to be one of the three or
four worst in the league. Yes, and it's gonna be
very hard to win more than six games with that
bad of a defense.

Speaker 3 (08:30):
Yeah, because I don't think Bryce Young is gonna Joe
Burrow your way to shootouts and win thirty.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
Five, you know, correct. Uh So we'll both go under
six and a half for Carolina.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (08:40):
And then finally, also at six and a half, the
New Orleans Saints' third easiest schedule in the NFL, according
to Sharp Analysis.

Speaker 3 (08:48):
Okay, I think they're a little better than people think.
Like everyone looks at the Browns and Saints as clearly
the worst two teams in the league. I think they're
noticeably better than the Browns. They have a young O
line Kamara.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
They've got some proven playmakers.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, yeah, I mean the offense other than the quarterback,
and that's huge. I understand there's a giant elephant in
the room at the quarterback, but they have an offensive
mining coach. I think ten of the eleven on offense
are pretty decent. Defense has usually been good, but it's
really old and kind of a mess right now. I'm
going under. I thought they'd be at like five and

(09:23):
a half, though I can't see him getting seven.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
I can't see him getting seven.

Speaker 3 (09:27):
They're six and a half right, they're six and a half.

Speaker 2 (09:29):
I can't see him, and I'm with you on this.
I think a lot of people lump them into the
Browns territory, into Carolina Panthers territory. Yeah, I think they're
one of those teams that's kind of like the Giants.
I think they're going to be better than people think,
but that necessarily won't be reflected in a seven or
eight win season.

Speaker 3 (09:46):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
Yeah, I don't think they're going to be a doormat.
They'll play and lose a lot of close games, but
probably like they'll they'll probably have nine ten to eleven
one score games and they'll only win one or two
of them. But you know, I don't think they're going
to be as bad as people think. I'm with you
on that, but I don't see him on in seven games.

Speaker 3 (10:02):
I'll go under and I'm not one hundred percent sold.
Rattler is gonna be like the worst quarterback in the league.
He might be twenty fifth, you know, which gets say
an extra win.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
Better than thirty two? Right? Right? Right, Matt, what do
you say a little bit of a curve ball for
you here? But you want to knock out the NFC
West so we can wrap up this exercise week. I
was gonna say the next the next two days, I
feel like we're gonna have a lot of Steelers and
Jets stuff.

Speaker 3 (10:21):
Yeah, we're not going to do this Thursday Friday exactly right.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
So let's get into it now, Arizona Party.

Speaker 3 (10:27):
You think about this division is I could see any
order of how it ends up. You can tell me
the Niners are one, two, three, or four. The Cardinals
are one, two, three or four. So I don't know
how to This is the weirdest division to me.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
I see what you're saying there. I still think I
give the Niners in the Rams a lot more.

Speaker 3 (10:48):
The Cardinals would be my four leeway, right, But I
think it's the most bunched up division. I think that's
one to four is the closest, you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
I think that's a fair way to put it. I
think that's a very fair way to put it. Let's
start with the Cardinals. Will go alphabetically here, eight and
a half is there over under number in Vegas? Right now?
They have the eleventh easiest schedule in the National Football League.

Speaker 3 (11:10):
I know the Niners have the easiest schedule in the league.
So the divisions these teams must play must be I
think they both played both souths almost up because the
six division games are pretty hard, pretty tough. No one's
going to be huge favorites.

Speaker 2 (11:25):
There's not a doormat three games.

Speaker 3 (11:28):
Right right right. I'm still under on Arizona. I think
that coaching staff really has out kicked their coverage since
they've been there. Like when they took that job two
years ago, they had the worst rosher in the league.
I don't think anybody really even wanted the job, and
they've manufactured a lot of things schematically on both sides
of the ball with lesser talent. That being said, I

(11:49):
still don't think they're super talented yet. You know, it's
Harrison a big time receiver, yet not really you know
what I mean, Maybe will be.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
But didn't have the rookie season last year that I
think a lot of people, yeah, affected him to have.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
I still think he's a good player, but I don't
think he's you know, the next justin Jefferson. The defense
is reinforced, especially on the d line, but they still
are lacking some starters too. A tough division. I think
they're under. Yeah, I don't love Kyler.

Speaker 2 (12:17):
Are they gonna win nine games and have a winning record.
I don't think so. Yeah, I don't love Kyler. I
don't hate Kyler. But at the same time, too, if
he misses a couple of games, then all of a sudden,
that definitely feels like an under.

Speaker 3 (12:29):
He's got a real history of getting worse as the
season goes on, which frankly I blame on size and
the you know, just the endurance of the season we're
taking them getting the better of you.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
You know, unless you're able to process and and dice
up back there, like Drew Brees. It's it's very hard
for those undersized guys.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
And like all athletes, So I mean, he inevitably is
gonna sprain in knee or an ankle and lose a
little bit of juice. And you know, as the season
goes on.

Speaker 2 (12:57):
The Rams nine and a half half is there over
under win total number. They have the twentieth easiest so
twelfth most difficult schedule in the NFL, and.

Speaker 3 (13:10):
They play a first place schedule. Stafford's back is the
illfan in the room on this one.

Speaker 2 (13:16):
That's if you tell me, can you tell me he
plays seventeen games? I think that's an easy over.

Speaker 3 (13:20):
Yes, But and I think they can make noise in
the playoffs, absolutely be a contender. And then I don't
throw that word around much. And I also think McVay
is the best coach in the whole league. So if
he has Jimmy Garoppolo for four day four games.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
Not the end, they might split two three or you.

Speaker 3 (13:36):
Know, they'll they'll make something happen. I'm gonna go under though.
To me, it's just kind of a fragile build. There's
a lot of their schedules not easy.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
Schedule's not easy. There's a lot of potential mishaps that
could happen. Yeah, with that roster, mainly with Matthew Stafford,
but they are Listen, I really like the roster. But
that's I mean nine and a half Touff division.

Speaker 3 (14:04):
I think I'm on the fence. It's a good number.

Speaker 2 (14:06):
It is a very good number. If it's ten and
a half, it's an under. If it's eight and a half,
it's an easy over.

Speaker 3 (14:11):
Again, if it was nine, I would definitely go over.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
You know what, though, I think I'm gonna lean over.
I think I'm gonna give McVeigh benefit of the doubt
that they can get to at least ten with that roster,
even if Stafford misses some time.

Speaker 3 (14:20):
I mean it kind of goes about saying, but with
a seventeen game schedule, ten wins eight and what it
used to be, you know what I mean? Ten and
seven is a good record, but it's not that crazy.
Sure sure would be ten and six, Like you're definitely
the playoffs. You know.

Speaker 2 (14:33):
San Francisco, the forty nine ers highest in the divisions,
schedule ten and a half and they have the easiest
schedule in the NFL. But they have any issues they
can win eleven games. I don't know. They're another one
with a lot of injury questions.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
They're gonna play like four starters on defense that are rookies.
That scares the heck out of me. A lot of
the lines always up in the air. They got a
lot of injuries at receiver. McCaffrey's back there in the
is a lot from party. I know their schedule super easy,
but I don't think their division schedules super easy.

Speaker 2 (15:07):
I mean if they go three and three in the division, yeah.

Speaker 3 (15:10):
I say this all the time. By Shanahan, he's been
their coach eight years, four of them they've lost double
digit games, four of them they've won double.

Speaker 2 (15:18):
Dig and been in the NFC Championship Game or further. Yeah,
it's very weird.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
And last year was bad, which often means the next
year is good. But I'm gonna go under.

Speaker 2 (15:27):
I think I'm gonna go under two. Yeah, I think
I can still win the division with a ten game.
It's certainly possible. They could go ten and seven and
win the division with a tiebreaker over the Rams, something
like that.

Speaker 3 (15:37):
Ten and a half was a number, right, Ten and
a half is the number. I think the Rams are
better than them. I mean, if I were just a
bet who's gonna win more games? I would would take
the Rams, and I took the under on both teams.

Speaker 2 (15:45):
I would too. I think I'm gonna take the under
on both teams to see the Niners, and again, I
know this is what they do. They'll win three games
and then they'll win thirteen games.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
Yeah oh yeah, but that way.

Speaker 2 (15:55):
Yeah, eventually that catches up to you. And the offensive
line isn't what it once was. What if McCaffrey misses
a handful of games.

Speaker 3 (16:02):
Yeah, there's a lot of young gus, a lot.

Speaker 2 (16:05):
Of question marks, and as you mentioned a handful of
rookie starters on the defense is always going to take
some time to.

Speaker 3 (16:11):
Take time, at least the first month. It might not
be pretty on defense.

Speaker 2 (16:14):
Yeah, I agree. Agree. And finally, the Seattle Seahawks seven
and a half is their number thirteenth easiest schedule in
the league, so pretty close to the middle there.

Speaker 3 (16:24):
I am very much on the over I'm a big
believer in this coaching staff, especially after the offensive coordinator change.
I think they're one of those five teams we've been
talking about that could have the best defense in the
entire league. I think the offense will be eventually the
offense coordinator change. They hired a University of Washington's offense
coordinator last year, and he didn't know how to call

(16:44):
play at the NFL level. I mean, it's just it's
a different game. And that really really showed they have
just saying that your first coaching staff as a head
coach is your worst coaching staff. Yeah, because you don't
quite know how to hire yet accept it, you know
what I mean. And I think just that in itself
could go a long way. I'd rather Gino is still
there because there's some volatility with with Darnold for sure,

(17:05):
I wish Metcalf was still there. They could use another guy.
I don't trust Cooper cop, but I think I could
see him win that division. Really, I could see it.
I don't think they'd be my pick, but I could
see Ninish. Who I think they'll win ninish.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
Then that's an over four.

Speaker 3 (17:21):
Yeah. I don't adore them, but I like their defense
a lot.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
To say they only win seven I think is a
little low for me. Yes, I think it's more likely
they win eight or nine. So I I think I'm
with you on that. You make a very good point
about their offensive coordinator. It's big, and that's kind of
you know, that's a funny follow up about you. Remember
yesterday I had that thirty second rant about you know,
people who just treat college football in the NFL like
if you could have time, like look at look at

(17:46):
Lane Kiffin in the NFL compared to college, you know,
like the way that those guys in college can manipulate
the hash marks, can manipulate the clock like it just
it is a.

Speaker 3 (17:54):
Much different athlete, blitz packages and right.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
Completely different game. What expect enough tikto in year two?

Speaker 3 (18:02):
Definitely, Yeah, I think.

Speaker 2 (18:04):
I think I'm gonna go over because again, seven wins
seems a little light. Eight or nine seems more realistic.

Speaker 3 (18:09):
I've told you that I've had success playing this game
for the last twenty years underwin totals. And one of
my rules or guidelines bet against rookie quarterbacks, bet against
rookie head coaches. Sometimes you get both together. You definitely
bet against them, but I bet their their head coach
is like, I made a lot of mistakes as a
rookie head coach, including maybe who I hired as offense coordinator,

(18:30):
et cetera, et cetera. You know, New City. I'm in
charge of this whole thing. I think they'll be better.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
Hey, I still remember after his first year, Mike Tomlin
talking about the things that he needed to change and
just and do differently that he learned on the job
his first year as a head coach.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
They don't give you an owner's manual, you know, right.

Speaker 2 (18:48):
Right, there's not a clear laid out blueprint of.

Speaker 3 (18:51):
You know, it's like becoming a parent for the first time.
It's like, Okay, here you go.

Speaker 2 (18:54):
Good luck. Wait, I gotta take this baby home, oh
by myself.

Speaker 3 (18:58):
Where are the instructions where's the instruction man?

Speaker 2 (19:01):
Wait, is one of these nurses gonna come home with
us for a week and help me get set up?

Speaker 3 (19:04):
I feel like TVs figured this out. I haven't seen
him much lately, but he may have figured this out
as well.

Speaker 2 (19:09):
We got a lot of this, you know, this younger
generation of Steelers employees that are all now hitting their
thirties and having kids, and Matt's dropping his off at college.
We're all just our very own ecosystem here. I tell you.
That's it for our team over and unders exercise for
the seasons. If anybody, as Matt mentioned, if anybody tracked those,

(19:31):
we would love to know how we did at the
end of the season. Not to you know, make anybody
else produce the show for us, but why don't you
go ahead and produce the show for us?

Speaker 3 (19:37):
That would be very nice.

Speaker 2 (19:41):
Rolling along here when we return. Like I said, I've
teased it a couple of times. Matt puts out a
lot of great tweets that have information and stats and
a hodge podge of information. Maybe that's what we'll call it.
I want to go through a hodgepodge of some of
the things that Matt has unearthed that have caught my
eye here in the last couple of days. Will do
that when we return West Schueler. Matt Williamson. It is

(20:03):
the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio, on the Steelers Audio Network.

Speaker 1 (20:13):
Your tunes about Drive on your twenty four to seven
home of the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
So for those who might not know, and I'm assuming
most of you do, this is the Drive. This is
the the baby of Matt Williamson and Dale Lawley that
you guys have what I mean, close to a decade
built up over here, right. Do you remember the exact
year you guys started doing it.

Speaker 3 (20:50):
It's not my job. He's the big brother. He knows
these things. I don't know.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
Well, Motes and I were eight years.

Speaker 3 (20:56):
Were well before, so you guys.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
Were definitely a couple of years before us. So yeah, obviously.

Speaker 3 (21:02):
Didn't even know each other. It threw it together.

Speaker 2 (21:04):
And like say, Motes and I met the day before
we started doing a show together. Day before we had
like a twenty minute meeting with with Brian Lamartine and
our iHeart boss here and I was like, all right, guys,
let's do a show.

Speaker 3 (21:14):
I don't know if you remember the name Randy slack,
good dude.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
Of course I do. Yeah, the v producer.

Speaker 3 (21:18):
Yeah, it was the three of us and we were
in this tiny little corner of the video room down
at the at the side, a round like bar table.
We all kind of huddled around and Randy God Bless,
it's always a great dude. He would bring us in
and then.

Speaker 2 (21:37):
You guys would talk for you for.

Speaker 3 (21:39):
Two hours straight and then he'd be like, and that's
the show, Like, like, I think this is gonna go
pretty well between That's fantastic.

Speaker 2 (21:46):
I love it. I love it. So I'm sure that
most of you are familiar with Matt Williamson. Uh, just
his Matt Stats, his deep dive into a lot of
the numbers and the analytics and the things behind the
first level you know, football stuff, the master's level, right,
like you got your PhD in this stuff, mister Williamson.

(22:08):
Your law to agree.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
You know, I've embraced analytics a great deal over the
last five to ten years. Yes, you know, I think
more so than a lot of people in this.

Speaker 2 (22:17):
Town completely agree, especially in this town where things tend
to be a little more old school, and there's.

Speaker 3 (22:22):
It takes some convincing, It takes some good, EPA, what
are you talking about?

Speaker 2 (22:26):
You know, when I started in twenty eighteen, it was
either twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen, my first year or
two here, and I remember it was something like motes
and I talked about something like that on a segment
and we had a couple people tweet us and be like,
nobody cares about analytics and fancy status. And I remember
talking about this with Pursuda, and Pursuda said this line
that still sticks with me. He's a little tough one

(22:47):
to pursue us well, but he he is a tough
one in that department.

Speaker 3 (22:51):
But that nuts cracking.

Speaker 2 (22:52):
Finally, it is fotally cracked. And it relates to what
he said, because what he told me is he said,
football fans in this town turn like the Titanic. You
just got to give them time. They move, but they
move slowly, they turn like the Titanics, and just plug
away and give them time. You'll get there.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
You gotta explain it, and I think I do a
good job in that in a lot of different forum.
You do. This is why it matters, you know, Like,
I know you've never heard of this stat but this
is what it does. And blah, blah blah.

Speaker 2 (23:16):
You know, but as you and I have been doing
shows together now pretty regularly for the last six seven
weeks or whatever it may be, since the start of
training camp, and.

Speaker 3 (23:24):
We've been on the air together for years, and we
have done.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
Stuff at the Draft and the Combine and all those
all those different times of the year as well too.
I have been bookmarking a lot. You will just throw
random nuggets, random tweets out sometimes sometimes at nine in
the morning, sometimes at midnight, sometimes at three in the afternoon.

Speaker 3 (23:42):
There's often a glass of bourbon next to me and
whatever's on TV, and like, oh, this is interesting.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
Sometimes there's sometimes there's a little context to it. Sometimes
it is quite literally just here you go.

Speaker 3 (23:52):
Here's like people, Yeah, I like this to put like
a sentence out there and you can just cipher this
however you want.

Speaker 2 (23:57):
Right, So, I've been trying to come up with like away,
I would like to do this regularly where I kind
of go through and pull out, like separate from the
Matt stat stuff that you do. Again, we'll do dedicated
stuff for every week and to.

Speaker 3 (24:08):
Pull back curtain. Sometimes I just cut and paste a
bullet point out of Matt's stats correct, I'm like dawned
on me and it's on my mind.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
You know, I wanted to call this the Matt Williamson
Hodgepodge of nothingness, but I don't think this is nothingness.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
I say, be calling this nothing this So how about.

Speaker 2 (24:24):
The hot like the opposite? Actually, how about the hodgepodge
of randomness?

Speaker 3 (24:30):
That's cool?

Speaker 2 (24:30):
Does that work?

Speaker 3 (24:31):
Because they're they're kind of unprovoked, They just boom, just
yeah and again.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
Some of them kind of fit within context of conversations,
other or just others are just good numbers to discuss.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
Here's funny that one sentence could be a whole segment
for us.

Speaker 2 (24:45):
Sometimes one sentence that you tweet out can be a
whole segment. Yeah, yeah, like this one. Let's start here.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
I've done podcasts on here's one bullet point. I'm gonna
give you fifteen minutes on it.

Speaker 2 (24:55):
Across Arthur Smith stops in the National Football League.

Speaker 3 (24:57):
Oh, this was the last night.

Speaker 2 (24:59):
Yeah, no tight end and his offense has ever played
more than seventy five percent of the team snaps.

Speaker 3 (25:04):
I know. I think that's really relevant for what's going
on right now. And that's crazy we talk about that's
a good one.

Speaker 2 (25:09):
We talked about this a little bit from a fantasy
football perspective when we were talking tight ends.

Speaker 3 (25:13):
Yeah, you don't really want his tight ends.

Speaker 2 (25:16):
But even bigger picture, I think this will really forget
the fantasy stuff as we're talking Steelers related right like this,
I think will really paint a picture of how they
want it to be. For lack of better term, a
group effort or a group project from those three.

Speaker 3 (25:31):
So fantasy football people, and a lot of these stats
and numbers come from those those folks. By the way,
it's big business now. Of course, fantasy football people were
not and did not give Arthur Smith a good reputation,
especially as head coach in Atlanta, where nobody could tell him, no,
you know, like you draft Bejean eighth overall and whise
Augie you're out there for you know, or Kyle Pitts

(25:54):
is off the field, or London he was my third
round pick. Why aren't you using them more and more
and more? You'd never leave the field throw to him
every time. And that's relevant because I think Smith would
probably even tell you if he was sitting here, yes,
I'd like to use a rotation that even the term
depth chart in the NFL is becoming a little more

(26:15):
and more obsolete. The Falcons new head coach said today,
I don't really believe in depth charts. Third, Nate, I'm
gonna put Scotty Miller out there, you know, like it's
not your fifth on the depths of statuty football. I
like three guys that get hurt for you to see
the field. No, Scronic's gonna be out there once in
a while, you know. So. I think that Smith overall

(26:36):
wants to use a lot of people, keep his guys fresh,
defenses don't rotate as much. Maybe I can wear them
down using more bodies. I can get more hockey lines
out there to yours, you know what I mean. And
maybe that's not always having the best players on the
field for every snap. You know it won't be we
know that. I mean, if Jon comes off the field,

(26:58):
somebody was less than him, algier, but he can't play
every snap, and how do you have most effectively used them?
But I think it's especially true with tight ends, like
to be Frank, I had a problem with the Steelers
tight end usage a year ago because when they were
in twelve one back two tight ends and I'm not
gonna explain this every time. Guys, you got to know

(27:18):
this by now. You gotta do your homework too.

Speaker 2 (27:19):
Post Labor Day weekend, it's time to speaking football vernacular.

Speaker 3 (27:23):
And remember they'd have John hud The tight end room's
better now than that, much better, but they're twelve personnel
and twenty twenty four too often for my liking, did
not include Pat fryermanth it was Michael Pruett, maybe it
was Hayward Washington. I must say he never did. But
you would think if there's two tight ends on the field,

(27:44):
your best guy should be out.

Speaker 2 (27:45):
Especially when there was your clear cut best guy last
year in Pat Frock.

Speaker 3 (27:48):
He should be eighty five percent of the Tuls personnel
and he wasn't. I forget what the number is, but
it was low. So there's good, damn bad. But I
definitely think with three of them, this is going to
keep up. I mean, it's going to get even more
so where they're gonna get close to equal snaps. In
my opinion, different situations are different players.

Speaker 2 (28:09):
And that's what I mean, that's what I think. Definitely. Listen,
Touching Wolf used to say this all the time. There's lies,
there's dang lies. They would use a different four letters. Yeah,
but there's lies, there's dang lies, and then there's statistics.

Speaker 3 (28:24):
And Wolf was not easy not to crack either, but
he started to embracing at the end. He liked bat stats.
I'm like, I'm not sure we're gonna send them to.

Speaker 2 (28:33):
You, all those racks of ribs that you guys ate
together for your Wednesday night shows. He finally warmed up
to realizing this guy knows what he's talking about.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
Backing them up and they make some sense, and right,
all right. I think he even quoted him on the air.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
Like, I think this is one of those statistics that again,
sometimes just a number like that can be manipulated. There's
situational stuff around it all day. But I think this is.

Speaker 3 (28:52):
Something maybe the best guy got hurt the year that
Rock Bowers was going to play a hundred stats telling
you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (28:58):
Yeah, but I think when you combine what is now
like a real depth of history with Arthur Smith offenses,
it's not two years that were going off.

Speaker 3 (29:05):
Oh no, Johnny Smith's been part of it every step
of the way. He's not going to play eighty percent
of snaps.

Speaker 2 (29:10):
And these three guys, who are all talented in their
own right, different skill set, the way you're going to
be able to use them and deploy them in different scenarios.
I think you can take this stat that number to
the bank, Like if you and I were doing over under,
any of these guys play more than seventy five percent
of the snaps at tight end. I think that's an
easy under.

Speaker 3 (29:27):
It's an easy under because I mean, you'd have to
play a ton of thirteen, and they will, but a
ton of thirteen is still ten percent of the snaps.

Speaker 2 (29:34):
I mean, it's not sixty exactly right.

Speaker 3 (29:37):
And even a ton of twelve might be forty percent
of the snaps. There's still going to be a lot
of snaps. And the Steelers are three receivers on the
field in one tight end. I mean, this is the NFL,
so it's not easy to get to. And this year,
I mean I was flat out critical what they did
last year. This year, I think it's a strength. Last year,
I think it was a bit of a weakness. So okay,

(30:00):
and again, if you're gonna play a ton of tell
at twelve, you're gonna play a ton of thirteen, Arthur,
You're gonna keep moving your tight ends in and out
of the line.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
Only that becomes the Steelers matchup calling card on offense.

Speaker 3 (30:09):
That's what I'm going with is So then the front
office says, Okay, I like your approach. I don't want
you to change. I'll just get your better tight ends.
And okay, it's not the builder. It's the materials, right,
not the chef. It's the ingredient. Now there's a chance
it's wrong. You know, maybe it's like we should have said,
I don't like that approach, put fire me out there
every time. But we hired you for a reason. We

(30:31):
had this conversation before we hired you. We know that
you're you know, this isn't news to them. Sure after
you would think not that. Okay, we like your approach.
It is a unique way to play an offense. It's
I keep bringing it up like the Ravens have a
card on the field all the time. No one else
deals with a beast like that. No one deals with
thirteen as much as the Steelers are gonna throw at them,

(30:52):
or a beast like Darnel Washington. So we want to
be unique. You don't have as much time to prepare
during the week as people think for these games, so
we'll just give you better tight ends.

Speaker 2 (31:03):
I think it makes a ton of sense from that standpoint.
And that's when you see the Ravens and everything that
they do with Lamar and Henry and Ricard. That's their
matchup nightmare. It's awful when you see the Bengals and
you gotta go. You gotta have Joe Burrow and Jamar
Chase and p Higgin dropping bombs on you for sixty minutes,
that's their matchup nightmare. I'm hoping that those tight ends
and the way they can deploy them and make teams
show their hand with Bass and Nickel and how they're

(31:25):
going to defend when the Steelers are in twelve with
Pat and John or John Whu and Darnell or whatever
that combination might look like. I'm cautiously optimistic that that's
going to be a real card up their sleeve.

Speaker 3 (31:35):
On offense, shit a huge thing that's going on in
the league, and it always has, but it's more prevalent now,
at least to my eyes, is do something that's the
other thirty one aren't doing on offense. And I could
go through them all, but you mentioned a few. The
Bills led the league in six offensive linemen by a
wide margin. I mean a really wide margin, like two

(31:56):
percents a lot. They're at like eight, you know, So
these and I bring that, and I'm not saying the
Steelers are as good as the Bengals, the Lions, the Chiefs,
the Ravens, the Bills. They're the best offense in the league,
the Eagles, but every one of them have distinct, unique
ways of playing. Another example is I haven't double checked this,
but I haven't fact checked it, but I think there's

(32:18):
more fullback I know this. Actually there's more fullbacks on
NFL rosters leading into Week one, and Seattle actually has
two of them than there were last year. And last
year there was like fifteen. There were like fifteen fullbacks
employed by the league. This year, I think it's like
twenty five. And the reason is none of these linebackers

(32:39):
ever played against the fullback in college. They don't know
what shoulder to take on if he's flying through the
B gap. All of a sudden, I got two. There's
two gaps. I mean a new gap was created a
m I taking it on the strong side, the weak side,
the left, the right. You know, like I've never done
this before, let alone Dan Krider running over my face
and I'm a two ten pound linebacker. I'm not Levon Kirklin.

(33:03):
You know, these guys are all undersize.

Speaker 2 (33:05):
And it's not even You're not even asking those guys
to be Mike Alstadt out there. You're just asking them
to create matchup nightmares. And that's the cyclical nature of
football that I love. M Like offenses, defenses get lighter,
offenses get heavier. Yeah, defenses get heavier, offenses get lighter.

Speaker 3 (33:20):
It's I mean, a perfect example. We know all the
success Shanahan's had with the Niners offense, well, they've been
two back forever. With use check they made you check
the highest paid fullback ever. And he's not Dan Kreider,
Tim Lester. He can catch the ball, he can do
a lot of things. But with Kittle's ability to block
and a second back and you know McCaffrey's catching ability,

(33:42):
it's like, man, what do I do against their base personnel?
I just don't line up in my three four four
three because he's going to detach them and manipulate me,
you know what I mean? That was their calling card.
It was a fullback, but a different kind.

Speaker 2 (33:54):
I'm hoping that's what we're going to see.

Speaker 3 (33:56):
I think that's what they're going for. They're easy to
pull offense, no in here, you know.

Speaker 2 (34:00):
No doubt, Matt. We got to get to our last
break on whole segment. I was gonna say, I got
a couple more of these hodgepods of randomness from Matt.
Williamson will close down with a couple more of these
as we roll along. It is the Drive on Steelers
Nation Radio on the Steelers Audio Network, your tunes.

Speaker 1 (34:26):
About Drive on your twenty four to seven home of
the Black and Goal Steelers Nation Radio.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
Final segment of the Drive here on a Wednesday, Matt,
I have good news for you, all right, the next
time you and I do a show together, there will
be an NFL football game shortly after. Oh yeah, yeah
about that.

Speaker 3 (34:54):
I am fours from now, and then we'll be tailgating
for Opening Day before that.

Speaker 2 (34:59):
Exactly right, I'm exactly right looking forward to it. As
we just put a bow on things for today, kind
of sticking with the hodgepodge of randomness. But this isn't
random here, Matt. This kind of piggybacks a little bit
off of what we just talked about. Arthur Smith offense
tight end usage. How about now wide receiver usage with
Arthur Smith as the head coach or an offensive coordinator.

(35:21):
The most targets a wide receiver has ever gotten in
a single season Drake London in twenty twenty two with
one hundred and seventeen.

Speaker 3 (35:28):
It's a very low number. First off, folks, that's a
low number, right. I mean there's guys that have one
hundred catches every year. You're getting way more in one hundred
and seventeen targets. Like could you search targets last year?
Like if where was one hundred and seventeen of ranked
amongst all targeted players last year? I bet it's like thirtieth,

(35:50):
you know what I mean? Like, there's a lot of
guys that get into the one fifties. One seed Lams getting.

Speaker 2 (35:55):
One hundred and seventeen would have been twenty five.

Speaker 3 (36:00):
Okay, And that's his that's his high water mark. That's
his high water for a wide receiver. Yes, it was
a clear number one Drake London that was there last
year in Atlanta. Now, I think there's a lot to
unpack here. Metcalf easily could exceed that. I mean he's
gonna demand targets way more than Austin.

Speaker 2 (36:20):
Basically every year he's been healthy, so besides last year
where he missed a couple of games, he's been over
that number.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
I don't doubt it. If you break it down per game,
I'm sure he's like the.

Speaker 2 (36:30):
Four years before last year one hundred twenty nine targets,
one hundred twenty nine targets, hundred and forty one targets
one hundred and nineteen.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
So I'm guessing Metcalf exceeds that if he plays all
seventeen or if you just break it down per game,
I bet it's higher than London's per game target numbers
were just based off of how much Rogers has worked
with him, how much better he is than the other guys.
I don't think he's ever gonna leave the field. But
this also, I mean, I get asked one hundred times

(37:01):
a day and you probably get asked eighty five times
a day. What are they doing for a number two receiving?
Oh my gosh, you know, like this is going back
to Ayuk.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
I know it's frustrating that I see I see friends
at like picnics and graduation parties and things like that,
friends that I haven't seen in years that like we
have kids now and stuff, and the first thing they
ask me is not like how the kids doing, how's
your parents doing? Right, it's who's gonna be to Steeler's
number two wide receiver?

Speaker 3 (37:25):
Really knocking? So I think that this stat I don't have,
but I bet the second highest target or the what
I mean is, whoever the wide receiver is is probably
a J. Brown for a lot of the years. It
definitely a lot of years whoever wide receiver too has

(37:45):
been in an Arthur Smith offense. I bet their target
numbers are even crazy or low, you know what I mean,
Like t Hagen's got a ton of targets as a
second guy for you know, Godwin gets a ton next
to Evan Wattle Hill, et cetera. Well, my point is
the wide receiver two does not get used very much
with Smith, and a lot of it's because it's tight

(38:07):
end centric. They run the ball a lot, they play
a little slower, they don't run a bazillion plays. Now
that kind of takes away a little bit of the
need for a wide receiver too here more than other cities,
for sure. I mean, there's no question about it by design. Still,

(38:29):
and we saw this and you mentioned it like an
hour ago. What if Mecac gets hurt. I mean, that's
that's my that's my sticky.

Speaker 2 (38:35):
You're in a very you would feel better about your
weapons at tight end. Yeah, but you're in a very
you would find yourself much in the same position that
you were when George Pickens missed those couple of games.
You're too easy to play against. Yeah, And I will
say I think there's some more to work with with
Roman Wilson than the you know, the Mike Williams and

(38:56):
Van Jefferson's of the world.

Speaker 3 (38:57):
No doubt roll with those dudes.

Speaker 2 (38:59):
But I but, I but I don't think it's I'm
not drastically more confident now all of a sudden if
they became Metcalf were to miss a couple games.

Speaker 3 (39:06):
Agreed. I think I'm much more confident that Austin's a
legit NFL player early now than I was here in
sixty five days ago. But and I do have hoped
for Wilson, and I think Miller's okay. I mean, they're
a lot better than the Alan Robinson's and Van Jefferson's
and Mike Williams who was shot and retired. You know what,
I mean like they're a little better off, but it's

(39:27):
not good enough.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
They're also undersized. Compare those guys too.

Speaker 3 (39:30):
Right, right, right, So back to the stat I don't
know exactly how to take it because I do think
Metcalf will exceed that, but he won't be ceedee lamb
justin Jefferson numbers, that's for sure.

Speaker 2 (39:42):
No, no doubt.

Speaker 3 (39:43):
They don't throw the football enough.

Speaker 2 (39:45):
Those guys are I mean in the one forties fifties.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
Like Pickens goes from the cow or from the to
the Cowboys from the Steelers. Well, the Cowboys will probably
throw the ball one hundred and fifty to two hundred
times more than Steeler. Yes, and they did last year. Well,
of course you're gonna have way more target.

Speaker 2 (40:04):
They're going to need to score some points.

Speaker 3 (40:05):
Yeah, Michael in particular. Right, you know, so a lot
of it's based on how you play. I think some
of it's Tomlin related to you know, where defense is
still going to be our bread and butter went in
doubt third and eight. Maybe we'll run a draw for
winning fourteen to ten and trust the defense punt, et cetera.
But it definitely is a Smith trait. You know what

(40:27):
I mean, he's been a play caller long enough now.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
That again there's a sample size there, there's.

Speaker 3 (40:32):
A big year, like some first year coordinator with the
Steelers never heard of this guy before this. You know,
he's a head coach that ran an offense and a
really good offense coordinator with tight mm HM. So it's noteworthy,
there's no doubt about that.

Speaker 2 (40:45):
I think it kind of comes full circle to like that.
Maybe that was part of the conversation was, Hey, would
you rather have a shiny new toy at tight end
or is your wide receiver two? You know, and the
way you want to play this thing, I'd rather have
the investment in the tight ends. That's where our matchup
card is going to be. That's what we're going to
give teams nightmares. And we've got that. We've got a
true number one proven in DK and we've got it.

(41:07):
We've got enough with everybody else with what we have
with the tight ends and what we are obviously too
we all know wanting to establish in the run game.

Speaker 3 (41:15):
And all that being said, I would be way more
comfortable if they had another receiver.

Speaker 2 (41:18):
Yes, I would. Jakobe Myers was a Steeler today, I
would feel much more comfortable.

Speaker 3 (41:23):
I would be a lot more comfortable.

Speaker 2 (41:25):
Yes, yeah, well, Matt, that will do it for us today.

Speaker 3 (41:28):
Fun.

Speaker 2 (41:29):
I think starting on Thursday, we turn the page big
time to those Jets, Jets, Jets, and uh, obviously we'll
give some some thoughts on that Thursday night football game
that's going to get rolling tomorrow as well too. A
lot to get to in the next two days as
we get you ready for Week one of the NFL season.
Can't wait. It's going to be exciting for Matt Williamson

(41:50):
and mister TV here producing a reminder. We are back
on YouTube the drive once again. If you want to
see Matt and I's beautiful faces and all of our
cool Steeler gear gear that we're rock and here in
the studio. Take care everybody for Matt Williamson. I am
west Hewler. We'll talk to you tomorrow. As always. You
know where to find us. It's on your twenty four
to seven Home of the Black and Gold Steelers Nation

(42:10):
Radio on the Steelers Audio Network.