June 23, 2025 • 27 mins
As tensions escalate in the Middle East following the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, we're witnessing not the beginning of another endless war, but a carefully calculated series of moves in a geopolitical chess match. The recent Iranian missile attack on our base in Doha represents not strength but desperation – targeting America's most heavily fortified position in the region with missiles our defense systems were perfectly prepared to intercept.
Let's be clear about what prompted this action: Iran was enriching uranium to 60% – far beyond the 5-10% required for any civilian purpose. This level of refinement serves only one purpose: creating weapons of mass destruction. Despite propaganda suggesting otherwise, Iran was actively developing nuclear weapons that could kill millions if deployed against our allies or smuggled into American ports.
What happens next follows a logical progression I've mapped out in detail. The U.S. and Israeli response will likely neutralize Iran's naval capabilities to protect global shipping lanes while continuing precision strikes against the regime's leadership structure. Thanks to extensive intelligence networks established before 1979, Israel has remarkable visibility into Iranian military and government operations, explaining the surgical precision of recent strikes.
By the end of June, I predict we'll see the complete collapse of the current Iranian regime, potentially followed by the return of monarchy under Reza Pahlavi, who has a government-in-exile ready to implement. This aligns perfectly with the emerging "Trump Doctrine" that emphasizes commerce over conflict while maintaining American dominance of global trade routes. A post-theocratic Iran would likely join the Abraham Accords, transforming the Middle East from a perpetual conflict zone into a region of unprecedented economic cooperation benefiting Arabs, Jews, and Persians alike.
The stakes couldn't be higher, but understanding the strategic calculus behind these events helps cut through the noise of mainstream commentary. Want to learn more about how we can fundamentally transform our approach to politics and global affairs? Pick up a copy of A Radical Reset on Amazon and join our growing community of forward-thinking patriots.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey everybody, happy Monday, happy post-destruction
of Iranian nuclear weapons, thetime right now, and I share this
with you because it's relevantto this discussion we're about
to have.
By the way, this is Herbie,your host here at A Radical
Reset.
I didn't introduce myself, Ijust assumed everyone listening
has heard me before, but ifyou're new here, my name is
Herbie Kay.
I'm the host of A Radical Reset.
(00:22):
If you want to learn more aboutA Radical Reset, what it means
and the system of anti-politismthat I've created to become a
new kind of republic that wouldeliminate all the corruption and
all of the money and thepolitical parties altogether
from politics and changepolitics from a career to a
public service, well then youmight be interested in picking
(00:43):
up a copy of A Radical Reset,the Manifesto of Antipolitism,
on Amazon in Kindle, paperbackor hardcover, written by me,
herbie K.
You'll find it on Amazon, noproblema, okay, and of course,
like share, blah, blah, blah.
You know all that stuff, solet's talk about what's going on
.
Those of you who've beenfollowing along know that I,
(01:04):
accurately, have predictedpretty much everything that's
happened, and not because I'msentient, but because I play
chess and I understand what itis, to use an analogy that I
have overused perhaps, but I'mgoing to stick with it because
it's relevant to the discussiontoday say what's going to come
next?
A lot of people are verynervous.
I think it's a combination ofthe drumbeat of the mainstream,
(01:28):
both the media and manycommentators even in the
independent media going intothis litany of we're going to
get sucked into anothernever-ending war, another
endless war.
So I want to talk about that.
I want to talk about the attackthat took place since I came
home.
So it's now, like I said, well,now it's 1113.
And I was out this morning doingmy thing, working blah, blah,
(01:49):
blah, making a few dollars.
Needless to say, I'm not makinga living doing this yet,
although I hope that changesover time.
But in the meantime I was outdoing my thing.
I came back to see that theyhad attacked they being the
Iranians had sent missiles toattack our base in Doha, qatar.
So I wanted to speak to that alittle bit.
And then, what's going to comenext?
(02:09):
And continuing with again withthe theme of Trump's playing
chess while the whole world isplaying checkers.
First of all, let me addresspardon me, that was me burping
and talking at the same timeI've been drinking.
All morning.
I stopped at the local QT.
I picked up my favorite softdrink mix, which is half diet Dr
Pepper and half Coke Zero, andthe bubbles.
(02:32):
What can I say?
Okay, so if I do it again,you'll know why.
So why did they attack Qatar?
What's going on?
Why is everybody worried aboutan endless war?
Well, number one, this is notgoing to be an endless war.
There's no regime change goingon.
Yes, trump quipped what Trumpquipped about.
Well, if the Iranian people I'mparaphrasing him.
But he said, basically, itwouldn't be a bad thing if the
(02:54):
Iranians changed the regime.
He did not say we're going into do it.
He's stating the obvious.
Okay, that is a head fake, justlike the two week I'm going to
give it within two weeks.
That was a head fake.
You know there's.
If you don't want to use a chessanalogy, let's use a poker
analogy.
You know, sometimes you canbluff strategically and if the
(03:15):
dummy's dumb enough to believeit, that's what you want.
So, but in this case, trump isnot bluffing, he's head faking.
He's just playing with themedia because he's so lucky in
his enemies.
You know the people that aresaying all these things are just
making him more popular.
The average American, theaverage Joe and Jane married
(03:39):
couple with children who workhard at whatever their career is
, white or blue collar, ineither middle management or in
the trades or whatever it mightbe, working at the factories,
whatever regular people who liveevery day of every race, are
growing to love Trump more andmore because he represents what
their common sense tells them tobelieve.
They may not be playing chess,but a lot of chess is really the
(04:05):
conversion of common sense toaction and not to just plow
ahead with the first thing.
You see.
So you know everyone fights thelast war.
You know our entire military isconstructed at this moment to
fight a land war in Europe.
That's not coming.
You know we don't really, to behonest, we don't need a
standing army.
Article 1, I forget whichsubsection of the Constitution
(04:26):
it is says that we're supposedto not have a standing army.
It's actually unconstitutional.
We're supposed to disband it,and I'm not looking at my copy
of the Constitution right now,but there's a short period of
time after war that the Congressis supposed to disband the
standing army, which we've longsince ignored.
But the truth is we don't needit.
The future of warfare, as anyblind man could see is going to
(04:49):
be drone and robotic.
The role of the soldier.
Thank God it'll mean much lessdeath.
It's going to be reduced tonothing, of course, but by the
same token slightly digressing.
If you take the death out ofwar, you take the prevention out
of war, if you know what I mean.
So it'll be interesting to seehow war evolves, war being
nothing more than the last stepof diplomacy.
(05:09):
I've talked about this before aswell, so just in review, war is
not an end to itself.
War is what has to be thethreat for diplomacy to work.
Okay, diplomacy is just talk,people will say.
I listen to my fellowlibertarians, and this is where
I disagree with people like DaveSmith, who thinks it's always a
better solution to negotiate.
It's not always a bettersolution to negotiate.
(05:32):
War is, in and of itself, akind of negotiation.
It's where it goes when you'vetalked yourself out, when
there's no way to meet in themiddle.
That's where we were with theIranians, and Trump did what the
president should do, which isprotect the United States.
Understand that even though theydon't have a ballistic missile
to reach the United States, theycertainly could put the weapon
(05:52):
onto a ship and sail it into NewYork Harbor or Charleston
Harbor or the port of Miami orHouston or whatever you want,
and just ground detonate it.
Now, ideally you like to, whowould want to do this?
But ideally the way a nuclearweapon is detonated is above the
ground, so you get the mostspread of the explosion.
But even a ground explosion inNew York Harbor would kill a
(06:15):
couple of million people.
Okay, if it was exploded abovethe ground, where it's supposed
to be exploded, it would killeverybody in the city.
But you know that would be badenough.
And the argument that you knowthat would be bad enough and the
argument that you know thatsome people what I like to call
the useful idiots of Iran, whobelieve their propaganda, that
they're not really.
You know, for civilian use,there is no civilian use for
(06:36):
uranium.
Uranium, uranium God, that wasa combination of uranium,
uranium.
Look, I did it again.
Uranium and Iranian.
That's kind of a tongue twisterfor me.
Anyway, uranium at 60%.
There's no civilian use for it.
Civilian use uranium refinementis 5% to 10% tops.
There is no other use foruranium at that level but
(06:58):
terrorism and death anddestruction.
That's it.
So the whole that there there'sa peaceful goal to this.
That's propaganda.
You want to be an idiot andbelieve it?
Go ahead.
Neville chamberlain's of theworld have have a good time.
He was actually smart.
I'm being cruel to neville,that's a much more subtle story,
but anyway, I digress.
(07:18):
So.
So, moving down the line, wedid exactly the right thing we
were.
I know I understand that hereand and again I'm speaking on
June the 23rd, the day after theattacks and they're talking
about.
They didn't really get it all.
The Iranians are going to claima lot of bullshit, just like
Hamas claims that there havebeen 40 or 50,000 civilian
casualties.
The real number is going to endup being around 10,000, which
(07:39):
is bad enough, but it's notgoing to be what Hamas has been
reporting.
The thing is, israel hasn'treported any casualties because
they haven't.
You know, in the middle of awar, going out and counting
bodies is a very difficult thing.
When you're under fire, youhave to kind of guess.
You know, in Vietnam, when theyused to put the body counts on
TV, that was all just a guess.
You know who's going to want,who wants to like, wade out into
(08:01):
the jungle in that situationand count how many dead
Vietnamese there are.
Well, by the same token, youknow, even though this is a
completely different environment.
But they're fighting in closeurban quarters.
They're not going to go in andcount the bodies.
No one knows how many peoplehave been killed, but Hamas is
publishing numbers, just likethey've been publishing stories
reprinted by the useful idiotsof Iran that there have been
(08:22):
attacks on the Palestiniansgetting food from the joint
US-Israeli, privately set upfood distribution in direct
competition with the UN.
Well, the truth is, all thoseattacks are all attacks on the
UN by Hamas, on their own people.
There have been no attacks onanybody going to the official
(08:42):
Israeli government-providedfeeding centers.
It's all been going quitesmoothly, although, again Going
back to another earlier podcastand repeating what Dietrich
Bonhoeffer said, which is thatstupidity is the greatest threat
to the long-term survival ofmankind, which he defined not as
intelligence.
(09:06):
You can be a genius who's stupid?
Because maybe you're a memberof a group and the group dynamic
is too strong for you to fight,or maybe for selfish career
reasons, or maybe for all of theabove, or maybe just peer
pressure.
Whatever it might be, that'sstupidity.
Well, we have a lot of stupidpeople in this country who just
knee-jerk react to everythingTrump does, without thinking
(09:26):
through the ramifications ofwhat's going on.
Trump's move here wasabsolutely brilliant.
It was the right thing to do.
Now, the attack on the Air Forcebase today.
I'm bringing it back to what mycentral subject was, away from
all my digressions the attack onthe base at Doha today.
As far as I can tell, we shotall the missiles down.
(09:46):
Maybe after I see the news alittle bit later I'll see that
one or two got through, but ifthere is any damage, it'll be
minor.
But it was exactly what Trumptold them not to do.
Now, why did they do it?
Well, first of all, you have totry to put yourself which is
going to be impossible, but asmuch as you can, you have to put
(10:08):
yourself in the heads of peoplethat are a member of a death
cult.
So not all of Islam is a deathcult, but this particular flavor
of Islam.
So not all of Islam is a deathcult, but this particular flavor
of Islam, this subset of Shiismand not all Shiites are death
cult members either, but thesubset of Shia that is running
Iran is a death cult, and theseare people that genuinely
believe that when they die, theyget the 48 versions.
This is not some joke.
(10:29):
It's not some glib commentoffhand, it's not to be laughed
off.
This is a deadly serious corebelief of these people.
They really believe it.
You need only read everythingthey've said for years for the
last 45 years, since 1979, tounderstand that these people are
deadly serious about whatthey're saying.
And even though they probablywell I'll get into my
(10:54):
predictions in a minute but eventhough they've retaliated in a
very impotent way by attackingwith missiles that we were
prepared to intercept tobasically our strongest position
, our base in Doha, isincredibly stupid.
But it tells me a couple ofthings.
First of all, it tells me thatthe threat to close the Strait
of Hormuz is an empty threat.
So all of you that are worriedabout gasoline going up a dollar
(11:17):
or two a gallon because you'vebeen hearing all these stories,
take a deep breath.
Gasoline, if it goes up at all,maybe a nickel, maybe a dime,
if at all, because the UnitedStates will not permit the
Strait of Hormuz to be mined.
The minute those boats come outof the harbor at this second,
they'll be annihilated.
Remember that the United Statesand Israel have complete air
superiority.
(11:38):
They're in the air right now.
They're watching them right now, not just satellites, drones,
fighter jets, bombers are in theair 24-7.
If so much as the bow of any ofthose boats, their mine layers,
go out to lay mines, they'll beannihilated in the harbor and
the entire naval base will belaid to waste.
(11:58):
My guess is that's going to bepart of the retaliation right
now.
So now I'm going to go into thepredictive phase of today's
podcast.
What's going to happen next,and you'll be able to.
By the time you hear this,you'll already know if I'm right
or wrong.
Number one I think we're goingto retaliate against the naval
facilities so that the Strait ofHormuz is out of play, and I
think we're going to sink theentire Iranian Navy, and I think
(12:19):
it won't be hard to do.
We've done it before.
Ronald Reagan did it.
To give you some idea, it's notthat hard.
Their Navy is a joke.
It's mostly PT boats, likesomething out of a World War II
movie.
So we're going to annihilatethat.
Secondly, I think we're goingto carry out, in conjunction
with the Israelis, attacks onthe leadership.
(12:41):
We're going to continue todecapitate the regime.
I would say today's the 23rd ofJune.
I'll be a little generous, I'llsay by the 25th of June, the
Ayatollah is confirmed dead.
Now he's named three successors.
I will also predict that by the25th of June, all three of them
will be dead too.
Remember that the Israelis havethe Iranians completely
(13:02):
infiltrated.
How they're infiltrated in caseany of you are curious is that
prior to 1979 and the fall ofthe Shah, iran was not only a
friend of Israel, it was a closefriend of Israel, and lots of
Iranians and Israelis are closefriends and family members and
even intermarried in some cases.
And there are tons of Iraniansstill in Iran who stayed back
(13:23):
voluntarily, who haveinfiltrated the regime from top
to bottom and the militarystructure and are there right
this very second, telling theIsraelis where these people are
24-7.
It's how they've been able tokill everybody and know exactly
what.
Israel's been able to hitbedrooms, specific bedrooms of
where these people are.
There's no place to hide and Ibelieve this act of attacking
(13:47):
Doha is an act of.
I think that's an act ofsuicide.
I think they could have pickeda lot of targets.
They picked the hardest targetof America they could have
possibly picked.
It was a stupid choice.
They're going to be dead very,very shortly Again.
By the 25th of June, the entireregime will be decapitated.
Now, what will come next?
Will another round of radicalscome in?
(14:07):
Trump's not going to try toaffect that.
The CIA is not there, but theMossad certainly is going to try
to affect that.
The CIA is not there, but theMossad certainly is.
And here's my next predictionBetween today's June the 23rd,
between now and June the 30th,it'll be clear that the
government of Iran has fallen oris in the process of falling.
How it's going to come again,part of my prediction is the
(14:27):
Iranian army and theRevolutionary Guard, the IRGC,
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
I think the C is complex orcore are two different,
completely two different things.
And there's still a lot ofpeople in the army who don't
like the regime and don't likethe mullahs and are agents of
Israel.
And I believe that as we speak,they're fomenting a coup that
(14:49):
will have taken place by the endof this month.
So now, whether the coup willbe successful, I think it will
be, but if it isn't, well thenit isn't.
But that's what's going to.
I'm not going to predict thesuccess of the coup because I
don't know.
I'm ignorant as to the, howmuch of the, how much protection
the mullahs still have leftinternally, I just don't know.
(15:10):
But the Iranian, but theIsraelis do, and I have a
feeling that it's not much Justa gut feeling that the coup will
be successful.
I predict the coup.
That's a hard prediction.
I feel like the coup will besuccessful.
Now we'll go even further outas to what takes its place.
What's going to take its placeis they're going to return to
monarchy.
Now there are a lot of so-calledexperts, particularly enemies
(15:32):
of Trump on the left and right,who are already poo-pooing this
idea making the Shah's the crownprince.
His name is Reza Pahlavi to bethe next Shah.
A lot of them are likepoo-pooing it because he's too
much a stooge of the Americansand the people in the street and
Iran won't tolerate it.
They underestimate how manyIranians are actually
(15:53):
pro-American and how manyIranians want out of this and
how many Iranians would like tohave a per capita income like
Israel.
You know, like Trump said inhis speech in Saudi Arabia, it's
commerce over conflict.
That's what's coming.
The future of the Middle Eastis going to be commerce over
conflict and there are a lot ofIranians who would like to do
commerce.
Anyone who knows Iranians herein the United States knows that
(16:14):
they're excellent business folksand they're just awesome people
.
Very, very smart, very good inbusiness.
A lot of them here can't waitto invest and a lot of them want
the Shah's government return.
Now, people, I heard some moronon MSNBC.
I want to say it was RachelMaddow.
It's either her or the otherwoman that she's off and on with
.
It's just another.
I can't think of her namebecause she's such a dummy.
(16:36):
I blocked it out.
But anyway, we're talking aboutwell, we're never going monarchy
.
That's like a 19th centuryconcept.
No, it's not.
You know, I hate to break thisto you, but there's a king of
Spain and there's a king ofEngland.
I don't know if it's a king ora queen.
Now I think it's a queen of theNetherlands.
There's a king of.
I think there's a king Again,it could be a king or a queen.
(16:56):
I'm not going to keepidentifying gender, but there's
a monarchy in all theScandinavian countries Sweden,
denmark, norway all havemonarchs, no-transcript.
(17:33):
But in a country like Iranians,even though they have, they're
diverse in the sense that thereare different groups within Iran
, that they aren't all ShiiteMuslims.
They're not Western.
You know, you can't think likeour groups are.
They're not like Americanblacks or American Latinos or
anything.
This is a whole different levelof tribalism.
(17:55):
It's more tribalism thananything else.
We could easily descend into it, by the way, but we're not
going to.
We'll talk about that anotherday.
But the bottom line here is, inorder for them to have a stable
country, they have to have acentral figure, and that central
figure has been the Ayatollah,and before him Shahs of various
types.
And now we're going to returnto what Iran knows.
(18:16):
Iran doesn't have a democratichistory.
It's like when democracy hasbeen tried in Russia.
It doesn't really work, becausethe history of Russian
democracy is none.
They briefly had one for about30 seconds.
It wasn't even a democracy.
They had a parliament calledthe Duma, shortly after the Tsar
(18:38):
fell, but they really have nohistory of it at all.
Neither does Iran, and sothere's not going to be a
parliamentary democracy the waywe understand it.
There's going to be aparliamentary monarchy.
There'll be some sort ofcouncil and this and that, but
the bottom line is the reasonI'm predicting it's going to be
Reza Pahlavi is.
He's the obvious choice.
He is erudite, he does cut agood figure and, more than that,
(19:02):
he has an entire government inexile ready to go, so to reduce
the chaos on the streetprivately.
What will go on behind thescenes?
What Trump is doing, playingchess, is going to be supporting
the Israelis to bring back theShah.
Once the Shah returns to power,which will happen sometime in
July, then it'll be very shortlyafter that, that, once they get
(19:22):
their ducks in a row andeverything calms down and the
United States will drop allsanctions, europe will drop all
sanctions and they will enterthe mainstream.
They'll sign the AbrahamAccords, the Saudis will join
the Abraham Accords and theMiddle East will become what it
should be, which is amagnificent place of prosperity
where all people Arabs, jews andPersians alike have rising
(19:44):
living standards and benefitfrom each other's various areas
of specialty, have rising livingstandards and benefit from each
other's various areas ofspecialty.
And Israel, the Trump doctrinethat is replacing the
interventionist Wilsonian waywe've been operating since the
First World War and fucked upbasically most of the world
through American intervention,when it should have never
happened.
That's another discussion foranother day.
Woodrow Wilson being the mostevil man in history, we'll
(20:07):
discuss that another day.
Woodrow Wilson being the mostevil man in history we'll
discuss that another day.
But that's dead now.
And the Trump doctrine iscommerce over conflict, but it
also is the continuingprojection of American power
worldwide, but not to interfereand not to tell countries how to
run themselves, but to keeptrade lanes open, which is
appropriate.
We want to be the ones thatdominate the world's seas and
(20:29):
the world's shipping lanes andthe world's airlines, because
that is also the reason thedollar will remain, for the time
being anyway, as the world'sreserve currency, and the dollar
must remain as the world'sreserve currency for us to get
around this financial crisisthat we are already slipping
into and the amount of debt,which is a whole different issue
.
But it all connects.
All of this connects, and whenyou're playing chess, you're not
(20:51):
just looking at the pieces onthe board.
You're thinking about what'scoming, what the next move is,
and the next move is, and thenext move is, and the next move
is, and so that's what Trump isdoing.
So what you're going to see nowis, once this is all resolved
and it's going to resolve in thenext couple of weeks,
completely as far as knowingwhat's coming then what's going
to happen is is that we're goingto there's going to be a deal
(21:11):
with China, because China wantsto keep the oil flowing from the
Middle East and would like itflowing from the United States,
and we would like rare earthdeal.
That's, we have a temporarydeal now, but we'd like a
permanent deal in place.
That's all going to take placeand we're going to.
(21:32):
Ukraine is going to resolve.
How it resolves is going to besome deal where Russia keeps
everything it has, basically,and Ukraine's just going to have
to suck it up and take it.
Too bad, so sad.
That's just the way it's goingto be.
Sometimes in a war, you lose,and the Ukrainians cannot win
this war.
Their choice is lose or bedemolished, and they're going to
take lose and then Russia isgoing to be readmitted into the
(21:54):
G8, which Trump already spoke toa week ago and Putin is going
to get what he wants and they'regoing to come out of their own
recession and again, prosperityis good for everybody.
So I'm really to sum up today'spodcast I'm exceptionally
optimistic and my counsel to youis do not pay attention to
(22:15):
people fighting the last war.
Okay, don't worry about, youknow, an endless war.
We're doing none of the thingsthat got us into an endless war.
Our leader is clearly not goingto commit us to an endless war.
Okay so relax.
Our leader is clearly not goingto commit us to an endless war.
Okay so relax, take a deepbreath.
This has all been thought outahead of time.
We already.
The retaliation for Doha wasbaked in before they even
(22:40):
attacked this morning.
I promise you it's all going tocome very fast.
It's going to come very hard.
Trump is an FAFO kind of guy, asopposed to a TACO.
You know Trump always chickensout.
I think that's a dead issue now.
And FAFO, fuck around and findout.
Well, I think the world knows,and that can only help the
(23:03):
American position at present.
We'll see what happens down theroad, but you can only deal
with what's in front of you andthen try to extrapolate from
there, and I think Trump hasbeen an excellent chess player.
I think he's at least three orfour moves out, maybe more.
So that's all I've got to talkto you about today.
Be positive, be optimistic,don't worry too much, don't
listen.
You know if it's all got youtoo worried, my advice is turn
(23:24):
it off.
None of these people know, noneof you too worried.
My advice is turn it off.
None of these people know.
None of these people are incountry.
None of these people areexperiencing this.
Relax.
They all have a politicalagenda, everything.
Now take a step back and thinkwhat you would do based on
common sense and the facts, theobjective reality in front of
you, and you will come tounderstand that we're being led
(23:44):
by a rational leader with arational program and a rational
plan, and we'll see how it allturns out.
And my feeling is, although itwon't turn out the way it's
planned because nothing everdoes it'll still turn out
extremely well.
Have a beautiful day.
Don't forget to pick up a copyof A Radical Reset on Amazon by
me, herbie K.
It is in Kindle, paperback orhardcover.
I would deeply appreciate that.
Don't forget to share this withyour friends.
(24:06):
God bless you.
Hey everybody, happy Monday, happy post-destruction
of Iranian nuclear weapons, thetime right now, and I share this
with you because it's relevantto this discussion we're about
to have.
By the way, this is Herbie,your host here at A Radical
Reset.
I didn't introduce myself, Ijust assumed everyone listening
has heard me before, but ifyou're new here, my name is
Herbie Kay.
I'm the host of A Radical Reset.
(00:22):
If you want to learn more aboutA Radical Reset, what it means
and the system of anti-politismthat I've created to become a
new kind of republic that wouldeliminate all the corruption and
all of the money and thepolitical parties altogether
from politics and changepolitics from a career to a
public service, well then youmight be interested in picking
(00:43):
up a copy of A Radical Reset,the Manifesto of Antipolitism,
on Amazon in Kindle, paperbackor hardcover, written by me,
herbie K.
You'll find it on Amazon, noproblema, okay, and of course,
like share, blah, blah, blah.
You know all that stuff, solet's talk about what's going on
.
Those of you who've beenfollowing along know that I,
(01:04):
accurately, have predictedpretty much everything that's
happened, and not because I'msentient, but because I play
chess and I understand what itis, to use an analogy that I
have overused perhaps, but I'mgoing to stick with it because
it's relevant to the discussiontoday say what's going to come
next?
A lot of people are verynervous.
I think it's a combination ofthe drumbeat of the mainstream,
(01:28):
both the media and manycommentators even in the
independent media going intothis litany of we're going to
get sucked into anothernever-ending war, another
endless war.
So I want to talk about that.
I want to talk about the attackthat took place since I came
home.
So it's now, like I said, well,now it's 1113.
And I was out this morning doingmy thing, working blah, blah,
(01:49):
blah, making a few dollars.
Needless to say, I'm not makinga living doing this yet,
although I hope that changesover time.
But in the meantime I was outdoing my thing.
I came back to see that theyhad attacked they being the
Iranians had sent missiles toattack our base in Doha, qatar.
So I wanted to speak to that alittle bit.
And then, what's going to comenext?
(02:09):
And continuing with again withthe theme of Trump's playing
chess while the whole world isplaying checkers.
First of all, let me addresspardon me, that was me burping
and talking at the same timeI've been drinking.
All morning.
I stopped at the local QT.
I picked up my favorite softdrink mix, which is half diet Dr
Pepper and half Coke Zero, andthe bubbles.
(02:32):
What can I say?
Okay, so if I do it again,you'll know why.
So why did they attack Qatar?
What's going on?
Why is everybody worried aboutan endless war?
Well, number one, this is notgoing to be an endless war.
There's no regime change goingon.
Yes, trump quipped what Trumpquipped about.
Well, if the Iranian people I'mparaphrasing him.
But he said, basically, itwouldn't be a bad thing if the
(02:54):
Iranians changed the regime.
He did not say we're going into do it.
He's stating the obvious.
Okay, that is a head fake, justlike the two week I'm going to
give it within two weeks.
That was a head fake.
You know there's.
If you don't want to use a chessanalogy, let's use a poker
analogy.
You know, sometimes you canbluff strategically and if the
(03:15):
dummy's dumb enough to believeit, that's what you want.
So, but in this case, trump isnot bluffing, he's head faking.
He's just playing with themedia because he's so lucky in
his enemies.
You know the people that aresaying all these things are just
making him more popular.
The average American, theaverage Joe and Jane married
(03:39):
couple with children who workhard at whatever their career is
, white or blue collar, ineither middle management or in
the trades or whatever it mightbe, working at the factories,
whatever regular people who liveevery day of every race, are
growing to love Trump more andmore because he represents what
their common sense tells them tobelieve.
They may not be playing chess,but a lot of chess is really the
(04:05):
conversion of common sense toaction and not to just plow
ahead with the first thing.
You see.
So you know everyone fights thelast war.
You know our entire military isconstructed at this moment to
fight a land war in Europe.
That's not coming.
You know we don't really, to behonest, we don't need a
standing army.
Article 1, I forget whichsubsection of the Constitution
(04:26):
it is says that we're supposedto not have a standing army.
It's actually unconstitutional.
We're supposed to disband it,and I'm not looking at my copy
of the Constitution right now,but there's a short period of
time after war that the Congressis supposed to disband the
standing army, which we've longsince ignored.
But the truth is we don't needit.
The future of warfare, as anyblind man could see is going to
(04:49):
be drone and robotic.
The role of the soldier.
Thank God it'll mean much lessdeath.
It's going to be reduced tonothing, of course, but by the
same token slightly digressing.
If you take the death out ofwar, you take the prevention out
of war, if you know what I mean.
So it'll be interesting to seehow war evolves, war being
nothing more than the last stepof diplomacy.
(05:09):
I've talked about this before aswell, so just in review, war is
not an end to itself.
War is what has to be thethreat for diplomacy to work.
Okay, diplomacy is just talk,people will say.
I listen to my fellowlibertarians, and this is where
I disagree with people like DaveSmith, who thinks it's always a
better solution to negotiate.
It's not always a bettersolution to negotiate.
(05:32):
War is, in and of itself, akind of negotiation.
It's where it goes when you'vetalked yourself out, when
there's no way to meet in themiddle.
That's where we were with theIranians, and Trump did what the
president should do, which isprotect the United States.
Understand that even though theydon't have a ballistic missile
to reach the United States, theycertainly could put the weapon
(05:52):
onto a ship and sail it into NewYork Harbor or Charleston
Harbor or the port of Miami orHouston or whatever you want,
and just ground detonate it.
Now, ideally you like to, whowould want to do this?
But ideally the way a nuclearweapon is detonated is above the
ground, so you get the mostspread of the explosion.
But even a ground explosion inNew York Harbor would kill a
(06:15):
couple of million people.
Okay, if it was exploded abovethe ground, where it's supposed
to be exploded, it would killeverybody in the city.
But you know that would be badenough.
And the argument that you knowthat would be bad enough and the
argument that you know thatsome people what I like to call
the useful idiots of Iran, whobelieve their propaganda, that
they're not really.
You know, for civilian use,there is no civilian use for
(06:36):
uranium.
Uranium, uranium God, that wasa combination of uranium,
uranium.
Look, I did it again.
Uranium and Iranian.
That's kind of a tongue twisterfor me.
Anyway, uranium at 60%.
There's no civilian use for it.
Civilian use uranium refinementis 5% to 10% tops.
There is no other use foruranium at that level but
(06:58):
terrorism and death anddestruction.
That's it.
So the whole that there there'sa peaceful goal to this.
That's propaganda.
You want to be an idiot andbelieve it?
Go ahead.
Neville chamberlain's of theworld have have a good time.
He was actually smart.
I'm being cruel to neville,that's a much more subtle story,
but anyway, I digress.
(07:18):
So.
So, moving down the line, wedid exactly the right thing we
were.
I know I understand that hereand and again I'm speaking on
June the 23rd, the day after theattacks and they're talking
about.
They didn't really get it all.
The Iranians are going to claima lot of bullshit, just like
Hamas claims that there havebeen 40 or 50,000 civilian
casualties.
The real number is going to endup being around 10,000, which
(07:39):
is bad enough, but it's notgoing to be what Hamas has been
reporting.
The thing is, israel hasn'treported any casualties because
they haven't.
You know, in the middle of awar, going out and counting
bodies is a very difficult thing.
When you're under fire, youhave to kind of guess.
You know, in Vietnam, when theyused to put the body counts on
TV, that was all just a guess.
You know who's going to want,who wants to like, wade out into
(08:01):
the jungle in that situationand count how many dead
Vietnamese there are.
Well, by the same token, youknow, even though this is a
completely different environment.
But they're fighting in closeurban quarters.
They're not going to go in andcount the bodies.
No one knows how many peoplehave been killed, but Hamas is
publishing numbers, just likethey've been publishing stories
reprinted by the useful idiotsof Iran that there have been
(08:22):
attacks on the Palestiniansgetting food from the joint
US-Israeli, privately set upfood distribution in direct
competition with the UN.
Well, the truth is, all thoseattacks are all attacks on the
UN by Hamas, on their own people.
There have been no attacks onanybody going to the official
(08:42):
Israeli government-providedfeeding centers.
It's all been going quitesmoothly, although, again Going
back to another earlier podcastand repeating what Dietrich
Bonhoeffer said, which is thatstupidity is the greatest threat
to the long-term survival ofmankind, which he defined not as
intelligence.
(09:06):
You can be a genius who's stupid?
Because maybe you're a memberof a group and the group dynamic
is too strong for you to fight,or maybe for selfish career
reasons, or maybe for all of theabove, or maybe just peer
pressure.
Whatever it might be, that'sstupidity.
Well, we have a lot of stupidpeople in this country who just
knee-jerk react to everythingTrump does, without thinking
(09:26):
through the ramifications ofwhat's going on.
Trump's move here wasabsolutely brilliant.
It was the right thing to do.
Now, the attack on the Air Forcebase today.
I'm bringing it back to what mycentral subject was, away from
all my digressions the attack onthe base at Doha today.
As far as I can tell, we shotall the missiles down.
(09:46):
Maybe after I see the news alittle bit later I'll see that
one or two got through, but ifthere is any damage, it'll be
minor.
But it was exactly what Trumptold them not to do.
Now, why did they do it?
Well, first of all, you have totry to put yourself which is
going to be impossible, but asmuch as you can, you have to put
(10:08):
yourself in the heads of peoplethat are a member of a death
cult.
So not all of Islam is a deathcult, but this particular flavor
of Islam.
So not all of Islam is a deathcult, but this particular flavor
of Islam, this subset of Shiismand not all Shiites are death
cult members either, but thesubset of Shia that is running
Iran is a death cult, and theseare people that genuinely
believe that when they die, theyget the 48 versions.
This is not some joke.
(10:29):
It's not some glib commentoffhand, it's not to be laughed
off.
This is a deadly serious corebelief of these people.
They really believe it.
You need only read everythingthey've said for years for the
last 45 years, since 1979, tounderstand that these people are
deadly serious about whatthey're saying.
And even though they probablywell I'll get into my
(10:54):
predictions in a minute but eventhough they've retaliated in a
very impotent way by attackingwith missiles that we were
prepared to intercept tobasically our strongest position
, our base in Doha, isincredibly stupid.
But it tells me a couple ofthings.
First of all, it tells me thatthe threat to close the Strait
of Hormuz is an empty threat.
So all of you that are worriedabout gasoline going up a dollar
(11:17):
or two a gallon because you'vebeen hearing all these stories,
take a deep breath.
Gasoline, if it goes up at all,maybe a nickel, maybe a dime,
if at all, because the UnitedStates will not permit the
Strait of Hormuz to be mined.
The minute those boats come outof the harbor at this second,
they'll be annihilated.
Remember that the United Statesand Israel have complete air
superiority.
(11:38):
They're in the air right now.
They're watching them right now, not just satellites, drones,
fighter jets, bombers are in theair 24-7.
If so much as the bow of any ofthose boats, their mine layers,
go out to lay mines, they'll beannihilated in the harbor and
the entire naval base will belaid to waste.
(11:58):
My guess is that's going to bepart of the retaliation right
now.
So now I'm going to go into thepredictive phase of today's
podcast.
What's going to happen next,and you'll be able to.
By the time you hear this,you'll already know if I'm right
or wrong.
Number one I think we're goingto retaliate against the naval
facilities so that the Strait ofHormuz is out of play, and I
think we're going to sink theentire Iranian Navy, and I think
(12:19):
it won't be hard to do.
We've done it before.
Ronald Reagan did it.
To give you some idea, it's notthat hard.
Their Navy is a joke.
It's mostly PT boats, likesomething out of a World War II
movie.
So we're going to annihilatethat.
Secondly, I think we're goingto carry out, in conjunction
with the Israelis, attacks onthe leadership.
(12:41):
We're going to continue todecapitate the regime.
I would say today's the 23rd ofJune.
I'll be a little generous, I'llsay by the 25th of June, the
Ayatollah is confirmed dead.
Now he's named three successors.
I will also predict that by the25th of June, all three of them
will be dead too.
Remember that the Israelis havethe Iranians completely
(13:02):
infiltrated.
How they're infiltrated in caseany of you are curious is that
prior to 1979 and the fall ofthe Shah, iran was not only a
friend of Israel, it was a closefriend of Israel, and lots of
Iranians and Israelis are closefriends and family members and
even intermarried in some cases.
And there are tons of Iraniansstill in Iran who stayed back
(13:23):
voluntarily, who haveinfiltrated the regime from top
to bottom and the militarystructure and are there right
this very second, telling theIsraelis where these people are
24-7.
It's how they've been able tokill everybody and know exactly
what.
Israel's been able to hitbedrooms, specific bedrooms of
where these people are.
There's no place to hide and Ibelieve this act of attacking
(13:47):
Doha is an act of.
I think that's an act ofsuicide.
I think they could have pickeda lot of targets.
They picked the hardest targetof America they could have
possibly picked.
It was a stupid choice.
They're going to be dead very,very shortly Again.
By the 25th of June, the entireregime will be decapitated.
Now, what will come next?
Will another round of radicalscome in?
(14:07):
Trump's not going to try toaffect that.
The CIA is not there, but theMossad certainly is going to try
to affect that.
The CIA is not there, but theMossad certainly is.
And here's my next predictionBetween today's June the 23rd,
between now and June the 30th,it'll be clear that the
government of Iran has fallen oris in the process of falling.
How it's going to come again,part of my prediction is the
(14:27):
Iranian army and theRevolutionary Guard, the IRGC,
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
I think the C is complex orcore are two different,
completely two different things.
And there's still a lot ofpeople in the army who don't
like the regime and don't likethe mullahs and are agents of
Israel.
And I believe that as we speak,they're fomenting a coup that
(14:49):
will have taken place by the endof this month.
So now, whether the coup willbe successful, I think it will
be, but if it isn't, well thenit isn't.
But that's what's going to.
I'm not going to predict thesuccess of the coup because I
don't know.
I'm ignorant as to the, howmuch of the, how much protection
the mullahs still have leftinternally, I just don't know.
(15:10):
But the Iranian, but theIsraelis do, and I have a
feeling that it's not much Justa gut feeling that the coup will
be successful.
I predict the coup.
That's a hard prediction.
I feel like the coup will besuccessful.
Now we'll go even further outas to what takes its place.
What's going to take its placeis they're going to return to
monarchy.
Now there are a lot of so-calledexperts, particularly enemies
(15:32):
of Trump on the left and right,who are already poo-pooing this
idea making the Shah's the crownprince.
His name is Reza Pahlavi to bethe next Shah.
A lot of them are likepoo-pooing it because he's too
much a stooge of the Americansand the people in the street and
Iran won't tolerate it.
They underestimate how manyIranians are actually
(15:53):
pro-American and how manyIranians want out of this and
how many Iranians would like tohave a per capita income like
Israel.
You know, like Trump said inhis speech in Saudi Arabia, it's
commerce over conflict.
That's what's coming.
The future of the Middle Eastis going to be commerce over
conflict and there are a lot ofIranians who would like to do
commerce.
Anyone who knows Iranians herein the United States knows that
(16:14):
they're excellent business folksand they're just awesome people
.
Very, very smart, very good inbusiness.
A lot of them here can't waitto invest and a lot of them want
the Shah's government return.
Now, people, I heard some moronon MSNBC.
I want to say it was RachelMaddow.
It's either her or the otherwoman that she's off and on with
.
It's just another.
I can't think of her namebecause she's such a dummy.
(16:36):
I blocked it out.
But anyway, we're talking aboutwell, we're never going monarchy
.
That's like a 19th centuryconcept.
No, it's not.
You know, I hate to break thisto you, but there's a king of
Spain and there's a king ofEngland.
I don't know if it's a king ora queen.
Now I think it's a queen of theNetherlands.
There's a king of.
I think there's a king Again,it could be a king or a queen.
(16:56):
I'm not going to keepidentifying gender, but there's
a monarchy in all theScandinavian countries Sweden,
denmark, norway all havemonarchs, no-transcript.
(17:33):
But in a country like Iranians,even though they have, they're
diverse in the sense that thereare different groups within Iran
, that they aren't all ShiiteMuslims.
They're not Western.
You know, you can't think likeour groups are.
They're not like Americanblacks or American Latinos or
anything.
This is a whole different levelof tribalism.
(17:55):
It's more tribalism thananything else.
We could easily descend into it, by the way, but we're not
going to.
We'll talk about that anotherday.
But the bottom line here is, inorder for them to have a stable
country, they have to have acentral figure, and that central
figure has been the Ayatollah,and before him Shahs of various
types.
And now we're going to returnto what Iran knows.
(18:16):
Iran doesn't have a democratichistory.
It's like when democracy hasbeen tried in Russia.
It doesn't really work, becausethe history of Russian
democracy is none.
They briefly had one for about30 seconds.
It wasn't even a democracy.
They had a parliament calledthe Duma, shortly after the Tsar
(18:38):
fell, but they really have nohistory of it at all.
Neither does Iran, and sothere's not going to be a
parliamentary democracy the waywe understand it.
There's going to be aparliamentary monarchy.
There'll be some sort ofcouncil and this and that, but
the bottom line is the reasonI'm predicting it's going to be
Reza Pahlavi is.
He's the obvious choice.
He is erudite, he does cut agood figure and, more than that,
(19:02):
he has an entire government inexile ready to go, so to reduce
the chaos on the streetprivately.
What will go on behind thescenes?
What Trump is doing, playingchess, is going to be supporting
the Israelis to bring back theShah.
Once the Shah returns to power,which will happen sometime in
July, then it'll be very shortlyafter that, that, once they get
(19:22):
their ducks in a row andeverything calms down and the
United States will drop allsanctions, europe will drop all
sanctions and they will enterthe mainstream.
They'll sign the AbrahamAccords, the Saudis will join
the Abraham Accords and theMiddle East will become what it
should be, which is amagnificent place of prosperity
where all people Arabs, jews andPersians alike have rising
(19:44):
living standards and benefitfrom each other's various areas
of specialty, have rising livingstandards and benefit from each
other's various areas ofspecialty.
And Israel, the Trump doctrinethat is replacing the
interventionist Wilsonian waywe've been operating since the
First World War and fucked upbasically most of the world
through American intervention,when it should have never
happened.
That's another discussion foranother day.
Woodrow Wilson being the mostevil man in history, we'll
(20:07):
discuss that another day.
Woodrow Wilson being the mostevil man in history we'll
discuss that another day.
But that's dead now.
And the Trump doctrine iscommerce over conflict, but it
also is the continuingprojection of American power
worldwide, but not to interfereand not to tell countries how to
run themselves, but to keeptrade lanes open, which is
appropriate.
We want to be the ones thatdominate the world's seas and
(20:29):
the world's shipping lanes andthe world's airlines, because
that is also the reason thedollar will remain, for the time
being anyway, as the world'sreserve currency, and the dollar
must remain as the world'sreserve currency for us to get
around this financial crisisthat we are already slipping
into and the amount of debt,which is a whole different issue
.
But it all connects.
All of this connects, and whenyou're playing chess, you're not
(20:51):
just looking at the pieces onthe board.
You're thinking about what'scoming, what the next move is,
and the next move is, and thenext move is, and the next move
is, and so that's what Trump isdoing.
So what you're going to see nowis, once this is all resolved
and it's going to resolve in thenext couple of weeks,
completely as far as knowingwhat's coming then what's going
to happen is is that we're goingto there's going to be a deal
(21:11):
with China, because China wantsto keep the oil flowing from the
Middle East and would like itflowing from the United States,
and we would like rare earthdeal.
That's, we have a temporarydeal now, but we'd like a
permanent deal in place.
That's all going to take placeand we're going to.
(21:32):
Ukraine is going to resolve.
How it resolves is going to besome deal where Russia keeps
everything it has, basically,and Ukraine's just going to have
to suck it up and take it.
Too bad, so sad.
That's just the way it's goingto be.
Sometimes in a war, you lose,and the Ukrainians cannot win
this war.
Their choice is lose or bedemolished, and they're going to
take lose and then Russia isgoing to be readmitted into the
(21:54):
G8, which Trump already spoke toa week ago and Putin is going
to get what he wants and they'regoing to come out of their own
recession and again, prosperityis good for everybody.
So I'm really to sum up today'spodcast I'm exceptionally
optimistic and my counsel to youis do not pay attention to
(22:15):
people fighting the last war.
Okay, don't worry about, youknow, an endless war.
We're doing none of the thingsthat got us into an endless war.
Our leader is clearly not goingto commit us to an endless war.
Okay so relax.
Our leader is clearly not goingto commit us to an endless war.
Okay so relax, take a deepbreath.
This has all been thought outahead of time.
We already.
The retaliation for Doha wasbaked in before they even
(22:40):
attacked this morning.
I promise you it's all going tocome very fast.
It's going to come very hard.
Trump is an FAFO kind of guy, asopposed to a TACO.
You know Trump always chickensout.
I think that's a dead issue now.
And FAFO, fuck around and findout.
Well, I think the world knows,and that can only help the
(23:03):
American position at present.
We'll see what happens down theroad, but you can only deal
with what's in front of you andthen try to extrapolate from
there, and I think Trump hasbeen an excellent chess player.
I think he's at least three orfour moves out, maybe more.
So that's all I've got to talkto you about today.
Be positive, be optimistic,don't worry too much, don't
listen.
You know if it's all got youtoo worried, my advice is turn
(23:24):
it off.
None of these people know, noneof you too worried.
My advice is turn it off.
None of these people know.
None of these people are incountry.
None of these people areexperiencing this.
Relax.
They all have a politicalagenda, everything.
Now take a step back and thinkwhat you would do based on
common sense and the facts, theobjective reality in front of
you, and you will come tounderstand that we're being led
(23:44):
by a rational leader with arational program and a rational
plan, and we'll see how it allturns out.
And my feeling is, although itwon't turn out the way it's
planned because nothing everdoes it'll still turn out
extremely well.
Have a beautiful day.
Don't forget to pick up a copyof A Radical Reset on Amazon by
me, herbie K.
It is in Kindle, paperback orhardcover.
I would deeply appreciate that.
Don't forget to share this withyour friends.
(24:06):
God bless you.
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