“How US Export Controls Have (and Haven’t) Curbed Chinese AI” by Chris Miller

For over half a decade, the United States has imposed significant semiconductor export controls on China, aiming to slow China's chip industry and to retain US leadership in the computing capabilities that undergird AI advances. Have these controls achieved their goals? Have the assumptions driving them been confirmed or undermined by the rapid evolution of the chip industry and AI capabilities?

Three factors for assessing chip export controls. We can now draw preliminary conclusions by assessing three factors: China's domestic chipmaking capability, the sophistication of its AI models, and its market share in providing AI infrastructure.

Initial evidence shows that controls have succeeded in several important ways, though not all. Restrictions on chipmaking tool sales have significantly slowed the growth of China's chipmaking capability. However, restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, while creating challenges, have not prevented Chinese labs from producing highly competitive models (though they [...]

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Outline:

(01:30) The Current Chip Export Control Regime

(04:25) The Impact on China's Chip Industry

(09:10) The Impact on AI Model Development in China

(13:28) The Impact on China's Ability to Provide AI Infrastructure

(15:18) Implications for the Future of AI and US-China Relations

(18:01) Export Controls Have Given the US a Commanding Lead in AI

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First published:
July 8th, 2025

Source:
https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/how-us-export-controls-have-and-havent

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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