June 26, 2025 • 61 mins
Thomas Nestico joins us to discuss the analytics on where the Jays strengths and weaknesses are. We discussed about any surprise stats for the Jays, the unluckiest hitters, Kirk being a great two-way player and the Jays tandem being top 3, Addison Barger and what has clicked in all cylinders, if Vlad can improve now moving to the third spot, evaluating Bichette as a player long term, and many more!
Where you can find Thomas Nestico:
- X: @TJStats
- http://tjstats.ca
- patreon.com/tj_stats
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:30):
Welcome to another edition of the Blue Jays Ave.
Podcast. We have a guest in here today
who's very analytically driven and he knows his stuff.
Thomas Nistico, welcome to the show.
We're honored introduced to yourself and let everybody know
what you do with all this stuff you posted on On X and
everywhere else. Thanks for the warm welcome
(00:52):
guys. I am Thomas Nestico, also known
as TJ stats. You'll find me anywhere really
Twitter XI guess blue sky. I have my own sub stack it
jstack.ca Patreon as well, whereI kind of grant access, create
apps and share them for other people too.
(01:13):
I guess play around with them and dive a bit deeper into
baseball analytics huge baseballfan.
You can already know that, but again, I love math.
I love science. You just love digging deep into
kind of these underlying metricsand just helping other people
understand baseball data as wellas again, I enjoy it so much,
(01:37):
kind of want to spread the love and help other people understand
it better as well. Thanks for joining us today and
taking time out of your, out of your busy schedule because I
imagine what you do super busy. I'm, it's just, I've always been
fascinated with that, that part of the game too, at the
analytics and stuff. So, and I love seeing what you
(01:58):
do, especially this year when the Blue Jays are, are, are
doing pretty well in some analytical categories.
So I love retweeting your tweets.
Uh, but thanks for joining us today and yeah man, we're just
excited to have you. Alright, so the first question I
(02:19):
wanna ask you here is so we're talking about the Toronto Blue
Jays. I believe they're like, they're
like in the middle of pack when it comes to WAR.
They have a negative run differential.
Their ER has been up and down incertain statistic.
What's that surprises you with the Blue Jays right now?
Right now, as I stand there, I think they have the second best
or second best wild wild card standings right now, right
(02:42):
behind the Rage. Yeah, So what I'm looking at it
with the Blue Jays season, you can kind of split it up into two
parts here, say before May and then after May.
Before May there were 14 and 16.So again, not too bad, but still
two games below 500 with a -34 run differential.
(03:03):
So when during that time span probably getting a bit lucky
with their wins. They probably shouldn't have
been just two games below 500. They had 22nd in ERA, they were
24th and WRC and they were second last in home runs.
And if we remember again, March and April, Bichette hit zero
home runs and then Satan there led the team with four.
(03:26):
And we know how slow start this year was, but ever since May
1st, it's kind of turned around a lot.
They are the second best hittingteam in the league.
Their pitching is still in that bottom third, which you really
don't want to see. But the bullpen strong, The
starters are still kind of flailing around a bit, but
they're hitting a lot more home runs.
(03:46):
So Bouchet, all his home runs have come after me first.
They got Barger's looking really, really good.
And Vladdy, even though he's nothitting too many of them runs
this year, he's been one of their best hitters, one of the
best hitters in the league really since the start of May.
And again, the record in that pan at 26 and 18 with a + 26 run
differential. So they're definitely firing on
(04:09):
all cylinders now. They're pitching is still
lacking a bit, but the batting is making, well, making up for
it in this time frame. And we've kind of seen it over
the past few weeks as well. They just don't give up, I
guess. It's just always kind of fun to
watch them and make their comebacks or even come close.
But the games are definitely more entertaining than what we
(04:30):
were seeing earlier this year and also kind of what we saw in
2024 as well. Two of the quote UN quote
unluckiest batters in the Blue Jays lineup this season of
Vladimir Guerrero Junior and Bouchette.
Vladimir Guerrero Junior has a WBA of what 348 and an X woba of
(04:56):
4/07 and Machete is has a rollback of of 316 and X robot
of 366. Could you explain to our
listeners what those stats correlate for the for for people
who might not know and like, whyare they considered unlucky in
(05:19):
that regard? So Boba or WOB as you would, I
guess see it on, say, fan graphs.
I think even MLB might have it on kind of their advanced page
that's weighted on base average.So what that essentially does,
it takes all the outcomes or theresults from a batter.
(05:40):
And I guess you can consider forpictures as well, but it takes
all the outcomes for a specific player and then wait kind of
their run value. So instead of looking at
something like OPS or slugging, say, I'll use slugging
specifically. When you look at slugging, you
have a single is half the value of a double, right?
And there's also a third of the value of a triple and 1/3 and
(06:02):
1/4 of value of a home. So it's kind of that 1234 kind
of waiting there. But when we look at woba, it
kind of scales or ways these outcomes by their run value.
So it's not just the raw total bases.
So it's kind of a better way to capture a player's offensive
production. So when we're looking at woba,
(06:23):
say Lamar Guerrero, which is around 3:50, and then we have
this expected robot, so expectedwoba, that's essentially looking
at his batted ball data. So the only thing that actually
go into it are active velocity and launch angles.
Sometimes they add in Sprint speed, but it's on a smaller
portion of the place, so lookingat exit velocities and launch
(06:46):
angle. So it doesn't actually consider
the spray angle. And that's where this kind of
deviation comes in, especially with a player say like Vladimir
Guerrero junior or Bouchette, who have kind of underperformed
their ex Robert this year. Both those players, they like to
hit the ball to all fields essentially, which again, it
(07:07):
doesn't hurt. It'll it helps keep their
averages high. They get a lot of balls in play,
hopefully get a lot of hits too,but it'll limit their home run
potential or kind of their extrabase hit potential.
Because the most effective batted ball is a pulled flyball.
It's the shortest distance to get over.
You can tap into more of your power since you're swinging
(07:30):
further in to pull the ball essentially just gotta get in
front of you have to have a longer swing.
Your swing is longer so your bats faster.
So that's essentially how science works behind it.
So if your bats faster, the ballis going to hit off it harder.
So it's easier to pull a fly ball for home run than it is to
hit an opposite field. But with Glad and Bassett are
(07:52):
doing, they're just able to spray it everywhere.
So again, they're doing really well this year.
They're having pretty strong production.
They're just not going to tap into that power potential and
that's why they're underperforming their ex old but
right now. So what needs to change for them
to be from unlucky to right downthe middle to some, well, I
mean, they're they're great hitters, but like, like right
(08:14):
now you look at them, they're off to school.
So like you, like you just described greatly about it.
But what needs to change from toremove the unlucky category?
It'll be tough because it's kindof baked into their profile.
Another issue with Gladys approach is that he has a very
flat bat angle, so he's not lifting it as much.
(08:38):
Again, he just sprays it everywhere.
So he's not lifting it too much and pulling it as well.
So it's it's I wouldn't really say there's much much to fix or
change about it. It's just kind of who they are
and who they've always been throughout their career.
But if they could find a little bit more lift or kind of maybe
(08:58):
increasing that flat there, the attack angle on their on their
swings, they definitely tap intoa bit more power and that should
help them again, more extra basehits and hopefully more home
runs. So the next question I want to
ask you is probably the MVP of this team right now.
It's Alejandro Kirk and he's been great both offensively and
(09:21):
defensively. I believe he was top top five in
batting average right now, but his wards actually topped 3 as a
catcher and probably better after yesterday.
But his defence is what intrigues me because if you look
at this field run value, it's number one in baseball.
Like the direct defensive run says it's top five keeps, it
(09:42):
just keeps getting better. So what?
What impresses you with Alejandra Kirk with those
statistics? You know, with Kirk, he's always
kind of shown glimpses of being really good at every aspect of
the catcher, but not all at the same time.
So the three main ones that baseball savant, for those that
aren't familiar, that's a stat cache.
(10:04):
It's just MLB's kind of advanceddata warehouse.
They look at blocking, caught stealing and framing for a
catcher. And Kirk over the past three or
four years, ever since he's really joined the league, he's
shown an elite ability in each of these categories.
Most of the time two of them, but not all three.
So this year he's doing an exceptional job with blocking.
(10:27):
Last year he was about middle ofthe pack and he was still a
really good at throwing runners out, stealing and also framing.
But this year again, he's doing the exact same thing.
Really good runners. They can't steal off of him.
He's his arm is fantastic, the framing he's helping out the
pictures of tiny stealing a lot of strikes for them and now he's
(10:48):
blocking. He's able to get down and make
sure that balls down low, they don't turn the pass balls or or
even wall pitches. He's just like, he's just such a
sound catcher and he's also backing it up with his his bat
this year. He's swinging the bat harder.
He's not sacrificing his abilityto hit for contact.
(11:09):
It's just everything about him. Just he should be an All Star
this year. He's been there, MVP and one of
the best catchers in baseball. No doubt about it.
Um, that leads me to my next question about the Jays.
Next topic I should say about the Jays haven't got top three
catcher tandem and baseball. Are you look at their backup,
(11:33):
Tyler Heineman, who looks like Johnny bench out there half the
time He's got a 406 average justshy of 1000 OPS.
I mean it's only 64 at bats, butI mean he's doing exactly what
you want him to do from a backupcatcher and he's providing
defence. So what do you what are your
(11:53):
thoughts on on and rock? You just mentioned the the
incredibly both you guys just mentioned the incredible season
Kirks having he's he's in my opinion, it's call rally and him
for the All Star team. And but you look at the just
just what's that? What makes them So, what they're
doing so special this year? Yeah, Kirk, again, I can't
(12:17):
really talk about him enough. He's been exceptional this year,
their hottest hitters since, again, that started May, again,
that starting point, even throughout the whole season,
he's just hitting the cover off the ball.
Heinemann, it's a bit different,but again, really solid defence
for backup catcher, exactly whatyou want to see.
He's not going to play every day.
The hitting, again, it's really come out of nowhere.
(12:40):
I don't really think it's too sustainable.
But again, who cares? He's hitting the ball well.
He's doing it. He's just he's doing what you
want for our backup catcher, kind of seeing what Carson Kelly
was doing with the Cubs earlier this year.
So again, I don't expect this 400 average to stay.
But again, if he can even hit close to 300, then he puts a lot
(13:03):
of balls in play with good defensive metrics.
Again, no complaints here and they'll continue to be one of
the strongest catching tandems in the league.
So the next question is probablyprobably one of one of the
biggest player breakout players in baseball and that's Addison
Barger. And it's shown his advertise.
(13:25):
I know statistically you posted some stats last year when he got
called up and you know, this front office has been very
patient with a guy like Barger. And statistically, if you look
at him itself, I mean the plus plus bad speed, lift ball.
And this is all from you, by theway, credit to you.
And you look at his defence, it's top 10 with a DFS right
(13:49):
with Ernie Coleman, which we'll talk talk to him about later on
in this episode. But talk to me about Addison
Barger. Can be it's even more of a right
fielder. Is he more of a third base?
But I talk a little bit more deeper into its bat with this,
especially with his exit velocity.
Yeah, so Addison Barger, out of all the batters on the team
(14:13):
right now, he has the best quality of contact metrics.
He's just smokes the ball like elite plus plus bat speed power
is lifting it. He's basically doing everything
you want to see from a hitter without sacrificing really any
other aspect of his game. He has about average chase
rates, average whiff rates. Not striking out of time is not
(14:35):
walking a ton either. But again, you can supplement
this elite power he's showing with, again, just seemingly
decent or average plate discipline and contact metrics.
You have the recipe or one of the complete hitter and he's
been on fire lately. Again, the quality of contacts
(14:56):
fantastic. Everything he's not, again, he's
not getting lucky. Essentially everything is doing
is backed up by his underlying metrics.
And now looking at is going to be 1/3 baseman, Is he going to
be a corner outfielder? I think third base is probably
where it will stick at, especially with that cannon of
an arm. But again, he can also stick in
(15:17):
the corners because his arm is ridiculous.
It's a hunch percentile, the hardest thrower in the league
and this year is showing how better range at third base.
So he's now batting second. Everything he's doing is just
incredible. He's exceeding all expectations
essentially. I was pretty positive about him
(15:39):
last season. Again, looking at his AAA
numbers, he's always been kind of this tooled up guy and it
seems like he's putting piercingit together and finally getting
a chance to the kind of prove himself.
Let me ask you this then. So we talk about active
velocity. He has one of the best bats
speeds according to, you know, with all the analytics and
(16:01):
stuff. Is it at the point that it's
better than Vlad, as good as Vlad?
Because Vlad is up there too? Like like ever since he's been
up? Like could, could his bat play
that high into a point that it could get to a point that's
close to what Vlad did throughout the years?
You know, with with Vlad, the the thing that makes Vlad such a
(16:24):
complete hitter is how good his eye is.
He doesn't chase much. He makes a ton of contact and
he's still able to produce theseelite eggs of velocities and bad
speed. So typically when you have a ton
of bat speed, you kind of sacrifice and some other
departments such as your contactcreates, it's just harder to
(16:46):
make contact if you're swinging the bad extremely hard.
That's why we have batteries like Louisa Rayas or Jacob
Wilson. They have really low fat speed,
but they're able to make a ton of contact.
They have great bat control Blade is able to kind of blend
is incredible power metrics thatbat speed with his really sharp
eye and good contact ability. Now Barger kind of they're
(17:11):
almost the same age essentially and glad he's already been in
the league since 2019. So it's kind of tough to compare
them right now, especially givenhow good glad he's been
throughout his career. But again, Barger has kind of
that same power upside as Vladdy, but not that same
(17:31):
offensive upside because that lack of, again, that the eye and
the hit tool. But again, I think Barger has
kind of all the tools you want to see, especially from a
younger hitter, essentially the first full season, and he's
performing really well this yearand I think everything he's done
(17:53):
is backed up and he showing off a pretty good, pretty good
defence right now, which wasn't the case last year.
So glad it's top five first basefor war and um, they just moved
them down to the third spot in the order and he's starting to
(18:13):
trend up. How important is it for him to
get that? But but how important is it for
the lineup as a whole that he bats 3rd and you have Barger in
between the two? Yeah.
So Gladdy, after signing that huge extension, expecting a bit
(18:35):
more, at least closer to what hewas doing last year.
But again, he's been pretty goodover the past few weeks.
April was definitely one of the slower, a slower month for him
and now him him moved into third.
Not that line of construction effectively doesn't matter too
much again, but your best player, second, third or
(18:58):
whatever order they go in. It doesn't really make too much
of a difference if you're looking at the grand scheme of
things and just the analytics. But if Lottie feels comfortable
batting 3rd and he's likes batting third or whatnot, and we
have someone like Bichette and Barger ahead of them able to get
on base, just again, put the ball in play, get on base, it'll
(19:18):
help Laddie. Just again or more runs if Man
offered me on 2nd. You have Ladie's power now and
he puts a ton of balls in play. Maybe he'll get some of these
deep, deep flyballs that maybe go for home runs or double s or
even if they're deep singles, you can score a guy from second
there. And again, both Bichette and
(19:40):
Barger there, they're not super fast, but again, they they can
run. They're not, they're they're not
a detriment on the base path. So we have a guy like Gladdy
with either Bichette or Barger on base.
It's a good recipe for excess versus scoring runs.
And I think just the lineup shuffling, moving around, maybe
just again, a mental game with them.
(20:01):
And I think also Bargers deserved, at least against
righties, deserves to be higher in the lineup.
And like any combination really works between Bachet, Barger,
Vladi and that top three in my opinion right now.
So the next question I want to ask you is about Bouchet.
(20:22):
We know that his bat plays to towhat his success is like.
He led the league in hitting a couple times throughout his
career. And now he seems like he's
coming back to form and that that's his dependency.
However, his defence is below mediocre.
If you look at his, you know, his metrics, there's a lot of
(20:44):
blue in it, right? And look, I, I get all that, but
can it be sustainable the way Boplays at shortstop and talk
about a little bit about what balances out from offensively.
I believe he has what, a 1.2 warright now.
And could that be a balance to the fact that it could only get
(21:04):
better or is defence is going tobe what it is?
And, and, and the other thing is, the other question is, is he
a shortstop long term? That's my other question.
Yeah, with Bichette, I think thedefence kind of is what it is
right now. He is a below average defender.
(21:24):
I know last year he had some positive metrics there, but
again, he was hurt and also we didn't get a large sample.
But again, I don't think he's a great shortstop in the future.
It depends. If he's on the Blue Jays next
year, is he gonna be a short staff?
(21:45):
Who knows. If they move on from him, I
assume he's going to get a pretty hefty contract and kind
of force his way to play shortstop from wherever he is.
So he probably will stick as a shortstop, but his glove isn't
great there. But you're using it mostly for
his bat, and that's kind of turned around this year.
(22:05):
Finally hitting more home runs and again as a leadoff batter.
I'm not too thrilled with him there again.
He doesn't walk too much, but heputs a bunch of balls in play
and that's all that Jays really need for him right now.
And the defence isn't too terrible like it.
(22:26):
Definitely near the bottom of the league, but it's not to the
point where like the rest of theteam can't keep make up for like
a minute. It's fantastic at second base.
We still have Kirk. The outfield defence is pretty
good other than Springer and right field, but again,
Bichette, he's just more of a bat for shortstop who probably
(22:47):
shouldn't be playing shortstop. Alas, he's a pending free agent,
so he's gonna play wherever he wants to play and he's gonna try
and maximize his value. So again, he'll stick his
shortstop this year and then moving forward it'll be a
question of what team he goes on, where he signs with or if
(23:07):
he's with the Blue Jays again, how they want to move forward
with them. OK, so let's talk about Ernie
Clement a little bit. How underrated is this guy this
season? Like in 232 at bats, he has a
297 average. I guess he's been on a tear
(23:27):
lately. Four home runs, eighteen RBI's,
750 OPS. I mean, he's he's done it all
for this team. You know, like he's he's been, I
think he's been one of the most underrated players on this
squad. So and he can and his defence is
pretty good. So tell, tell us a bit about
some of the metrics that back upsome of those numbers that
(23:49):
Clements putting up this year? Yeah, with Ernie Clement, he's
always been kind of that hit first guy, just not strike out
at all. And we kind of saw it last year.
He just doesn't strike out, doesn't walk either.
He just puts all the balls in play.
And the one thing that makes himsuch a, I guess Olympic hitter
(24:10):
is how he performs against right-handed pitchers.
Yes, he has a 408 average at 228WRC plus.
Sorry guys, left-handed pitcher.Sorry, 408 average at 228 WRC
plus against left-handed pitching this year that the
issue is he's not great against right-handed pitcher.
(24:30):
And now this is where in my opinion, I think this is kind of
where we can see Barger and Clement kind of hand them
together and become a really good platoon at third base.
Again, Clements defence is fantastic.
He can also use slot in later inthe game if needed just for
(24:50):
defence alone. But again, with Club Med batting
extremely well against right, against lefties as he's done
kind of throughout his career, and Barger being a righty
masher, I think both of them, they can just turn into this
like basically replacing Matt Chapman with more production
(25:11):
just because of how prolific these guys bats are against
lefties and righties respectively.
But yeah, Clement has been fantastic this year, the defence
really, really good. And he's just going to be, he's
just gonna hit and that's actually what he does.
He's just a nuisance for opposing pitchers just because
(25:32):
he doesn't strike out, he just makes contact all the time.
Really great back control and again, even if he is not
performing too well with the bat, that defends more than
makes up for it and he also has some pretty good speed.
OK, the next question is, I think something that this is
(25:52):
what this team's identity is, istheir defence.
And they wanted to go glove for best defence last year.
They continue to be the best defence if you look at their
field run value. And I believe the Braves are #2
right now, but the gap is, is, is a little bit of a difference
there. And also DRS their 5th.
And you know, you look at a bunch of guys out there, you see
(26:15):
now Vlads, DRS is improved. Alan Roden's one of the most
underrated guys and he's been upand down.
His DRS is top ten. Then you got Varsha who has
played only a plentiful game, not too many and he's top 10
Indian. Like is this what this team's
identity is even though with their offence it's only getting
(26:38):
better? And talk deep about how
defensively good this team is. Yeah, this team, like they won
the gold team Gold Glove the past two years and then they go
ahead and add Andres Jimenez andMiles Straw, who are both kind
of glove first player. So it's kind of ridiculous how
(26:59):
their defence improved after it being so good the past few
years. Now with Jimenez at second, you
have Kirk again showing off thathe is probably the most valuable
defensive capture in the league.And then you have Bar Show and
Straw kind of splitting duties in centre field.
That's kind of three of the bestplayers at their respective
(27:23):
positions defensively. And then we see Vlad again, he's
doing pretty good for his base. Clement really improved his
defence again. He was really great last year,
but this year is kind of taking that next step.
Bargers looking good, rodents good and left field Springer,
again, he's one of the worst in right field.
But again, when you have someonelike Marshall covering him or
(27:46):
Straw even, it's just, it doesn't even matter too much
what's going on in the corners when they can cover so much
ground in centre field. It's just this team is built
defensively. I, I didn't really like that
approach they were going for after 2023 and they missed the
playoffs 2 years and again, they're bats were kind of just
(28:08):
lagging behind. But this year it seems like
everyone's hitting like their stride at the right time.
And even then we're looking at even players like Bichette or
Vladi, they're not even at that peak where they can reach.
But we still have really good defence from essentially
everywhere around the diamond and it's it's fun to see and it
(28:31):
helps the pitching on as well, especially since the pitching
has been a bit lackluster this year on the starting side.
You know this, it's so funny yousay that about, you know, the
last couple of years and you look at it this way, like they
had a great check Once Upon a time and they traded him away.
Lord Escorial they had and he was, he was a streaky bad.
(28:52):
There were moments like he carried the team and certain
certain occasions and then Teoscar like I think a lot of
people were still upset about that.
Do you think it's been the makeup ground from having more
of a balance with this squad compared to like what would you
say between 212223 like 21? They had the best offence, but
(29:12):
their defence was OK compared towhat it is right now.
Like do you see a difference in that?
Yeah. I think what's going on with
this year, they're getting definitely more production from
again like the bottom of the lineup even in the middle of
lineup as well. But we were kind of missing the
past two years was it was essentially Vladdy versus the
(29:35):
world. Um, it wasn't really too much
like no one else was hitting forpower really.
Kirk had some down like was not performing well, but shit was
hurt last year. Springer has been on a kind of a
steady decline and he finally kind of brought it back up this
year. So I guess you could chalk it up
(29:55):
too. They just got unlucky the last
two years. It is a very large sample so it
is tough, but it seems like thisyear everyone's kind of hitting
their stride, um, together and playing sound, very sound
baseball. The base running that isn't too
great but the defence fantastic and it seems like everyone has
their role, they're sticking to it and they're performing well.
(30:18):
So which which pitcher the boogies pitching staff, first of
all, has been has been amazing this year where we know the
starting pitchers, you know, I've really come in their own
and you got Erica Lowers been really saving grace for this
lineup. They've kinda had to tinker
around the four with that five spot in the lineup.
(30:39):
But the bullpen has been just miraculous this year with a
bunch of guys who just constantly get swing and miss.
So which pitcher on the Blue Jays staff has the best swing
and miss in the in the whiff rate and and all that with the
analytics? So my opinion I think is also
backed up by all the metrics. It's Brendan Little, yes.
(31:02):
He has That was mine. I.
Guess he's a he's just crazy. Lefty's kind of a lower slot guy
has a ridiculous sinker and a crazy knuckle curve on the
sinker. It drops more than way more than
expected. So it just absolutely demolishes
(31:24):
left-handed hitters they cannot keep up with.
It is also really good against righties.
Again, that just adapt on that pitch is ridiculous.
The knuckle curve for those thatare more savvy with pitchy
terms, it's a depth ball and allthat.
All that means is it's just a heart like a high 80s pitch that
(31:44):
has minimal arm side movement, but it drops about like 6 to 10
inches and little is able to again, command that pitch really
well or loudly command it to allbut be really consistent with
the shape. And when he looked, we can
locate it at the bottom of the zone.
It is devastating. It has 58% whiff rate this year
(32:05):
that on that pitch alone, so oneof the best in the league.
And again, all you really needs is 2 pitches.
But then he started throwing a forcing fastball, not expecting
that gonna be used too much, maybe early in the count.
And then he has a cutter to kindof around everything else.
But again, that's sinker and that curveball.
He's been very sturdy piece and the Blue Jays bullpen and all
(32:29):
you gotta see is watching picture one time and you'll
understand why this stuff is just so unhittable for for
batters. So another picture I want to
talk about in the bullpen, besides Brandon Little, who's
actually been phenomenal has been Mario Rodriguez.
Like they transferred transitioned him from being a
(32:50):
starting pitcher to relief pitcher.
He had he had a hell of a may, Imean point 53.53 and ERA.
But talk deeply of what his stuff plays out.
How is he successful and what's working for him?
Yeah, so Yaro drugs. He actually won my AOL relief
(33:11):
pitcher of the month for May. He was fantastic.
You very, very big part of kind of the Jays improvements kind of
just their production and their wins as well.
The stuff is amongst the best inthe Blue Jays Blue Jays bullpen.
He's done a solid job at inducing chases, generating
(33:31):
whiffs, suppressing our contact.The sliders definitely been a
key for him this season. It's a really good weapon
against right-handed hitters andhe also has that splitter which
he throws against lefties. Just overall I think he him
being kind of that long man out of the bullpen feels like a
really good role for him. Again, the command isn't too
(33:55):
great, but again, him in like 2-3 inning spurts and really put
up really strong numbers and be a very effective piece of it for
the Blue Jays. And again, maybe they'll look at
him to do a spot star once in awhile, but it seems like his
home at least for this year. I don't think they're gonna
(34:15):
expect him to move into startingthis season, at least do these
more longer outings. But again, him kind of whenever
they need an arm, even a few innings, they know Rodriguez can
go in, he'll be sturdy and he'llhopefully give them some very
productive inning. I I wanna ask, I wanna ask one
(34:36):
more picture and a lot of people, lot of people didn't
expect him to be where he's at. And he's he's flourished and
he's just trending up in the bullpen.
It's Braden Fisher. Like his curveball is one of
like it's all of a sudden one ofthe most dangerous pitchers out
in his arsenal. Like the stuff is great.
He he was traded from, from the Dodgers for Vizio, which is
(34:58):
nobody expected this. But if you could talk a little
bit about him of how how that's working for him and with the
Jays bullpen stuff, that'll be great.
Fisher, he's been very solid ever since he's been up.
Very interesting Arsenal for him.
He has doesn't really throw his fastball much.
(35:18):
He is primarily A slider curveball guy.
You don't see that too much. But he also throws mid 90s.
So it's kind of interesting thathe's not really relying on his
fastball much. But again, the slider there was
mostly as right-handed hitters, very tight glove side action
there and the curveball very steep pitch.
(35:40):
It drops a ton at 84 miles an hour, definitely not really
expected. So both those pitches I see are
plus plus offerings. Again, that's sixty grade range
for them and it seems to be performing really well.
He has a 36% strikeout rate, generating a bunch of lifts and
(36:03):
chases. So good.
He's not walking anyone, he's striking out a bunch of guys.
The stuff looks great as well and he seems to be just zoning
it too. So it's not that batters can't
really I like chasing or like WHIP, like just he's like able
to pinpoint these pitches and let us stop speak for himself.
(36:23):
He's not afraid to put a slider or put a curveball in the zone
because he knows that batters are going to struggle against
it. And I really think he's
definitely a key piece to it. Again, getting him for Vizio?
Yep, very good, especially if the team struggled so much last
year with their bullpen and now this year it seems like everyone
(36:46):
in the bullpen is just performing well.
I wanna talk about Arjun Amal a little bit and just how special
this kid is. You know, he, he kind of
struggled his first go around with the, with the Dunedin,
sorry. And then he's just, he, he goes
(37:08):
down to work on his stuff at the, at the, you know, the, the
high performance complex and he comes in just, he just takes off
and he just, you know, he takes off the rest of the season.
He ends up in Vancouver and he'sstill taking off.
So tell us about the trajectory of, of a virgin animal and, and
(37:32):
just how special this kid can be.
And what's the ceiling in the future in your opinion?
Yeah, Arjun Namala, he's he's still just 19 years old.
Is kind of crazy how quickly he's kind of rising through the
ranks. One of the youngest players in
high performing really well on the one thing that stands out is
(37:53):
just his ability to hit home runs.
He has definitely plus power andit's undeniable at 19 years old
that it's just, it's just great.Like 11 home runs this year in
60 games. I get skin more advanced
competition than basically anyone will see at 19 years old
(38:17):
plus plus depending on how OK grows that grows into his frame
6-1 Maybe you could add a bit more muscle there more more
power on the swing. Decisions are solid.
He's making a lot more contact this year.
The striker rates down from over30% last year.
It's now hovering around 20% this season.
(38:38):
It's a meteoric rise. I've seen him ranked as high as
top 50. I think that's a pretty good
range for him. Now I just again, like to see a
bit more of those underlying exit velocities work up a bit.
But again, if he can continue, hey, a ton of home runs making
more contact. He is he's definitely the Blue
(39:01):
Jays #1 prospect again, he may be close.
Maybe you Savage might be close to him, but Namala, I think his
upside is is immense and Jays fans should be really excited
about him. So let me ask you this then
about Mamala. So right now he's classified as
shortstop and he's he's a he's, he's a big guy.
(39:22):
Like he's not a small guy, so could you see him play a
different different position? All depending on what happens
with both, of course. But let's just say if both
stays, could you see him at third base down the line or do
you think he's he has to move a different position, let's just
say in the oil field? Yeah, with with that I have, I
(39:47):
don't follow too much for the defensive side of things.
The prospect is usually on top. He had a lot of details about
him, but from what I've heard his defence has been OK this
year at shortstop. So I think they'll keep him up,
moving up through the system as a shortstop because if you're a
shortstop, or at least your practice and trained as well,
(40:08):
you can kind of move wherever you want.
The move later down the line, soI think it's it'll just be a
matter of how he progresses as ashortstop and then what the Jays
need of the future. Maybe they need a second
basement so Namala can go and goto second base, or maybe they
could fill in the outfield. But I think for now, they're
gonna keep him as a shortstop, especially seeing that his
(40:31):
metrics this year have been OK and he's still just 19 years
old. So it'll be more of a question
of if you could stick a shortstop and if not, where will
they need to play him Because hewould have that athleticism and
versatility to play essentially anywhere on the diamond or in
the outfield, except maybe not the centre field.
(40:52):
But still they'll they'll find aplace for him.
He'll find a place for him. Yeah, alright.
So the next question is probablyone of the most surprised
players and he was acquired lastyear in the trade deadline as
part of the Nate Pearson deal. And some of these guys didn't
know what they were. And your Hendrick Penango has
(41:14):
risen to the occasion that now he's in AAA and I believe he had
the highest OPS in AA for in theleague and well deservedly so.
And you know, some people like to make the comps of the Wilmer
Braves fine and dandy. But like and you wrote something
about Penango and talk a little a bit detailed about what, what
(41:36):
made him better compared to lastyear?
What opened your eyes about him analytically?
Yeah. So Penango, he's, um, really
well this year, especially in AA, kind of hit a speed bump in
AAA. But what the underlying metrics
now that we have Statcast data on him, kind of showing how he
(41:59):
did so well in AA. He has again, plus power.
He's dating the ball incredibly hard on that kind of Addison
Barger level. I'd say swings the bat hard.
He's lifting it a lot too, making a lot of contact, which
is great to see, especially witha player that has so much power.
(42:24):
The one downside I'd say in his profile is his and his plate
discipline or his swing decisions.
Again, he's walking at a pretty good rate, around 14% this year,
which is above average, but he is a bit too passive in the
zone, which may make him a bit help I guess if he gets the call
(42:46):
or whatnot. But again, plus power, close to
plus plus power, I'd say he's he's lifting his hardest hits.
That's what you want to see. And then there is some concern
about a swing. It is pretty flat.
It's also long as well. So it might struggle in the
majors. You might struggle lifting
(43:06):
against higher level competition.
We're kind of seeing that a bit in AAA G and it has a very good
barrel percentage. But again, he's he's a kind of
well below average launch angle sweet spot percentage.
And then the defence isn't all that great.
So I'll follow these stock stockin a corner again, which isn't a
bad thing. Jason Corners, I'd say part of
(43:30):
their weakest part of their teamright now.
But um, yeah, I think Penango with that power potential, he
could be kind of a nice plug andplay piece forum or even if they
maybe has a trade trip later down the line.
Because again, they have a lot of they have a lot of really
(43:51):
good prospects, at least hittersand AAA right now, like you have
RJ Shrek, like they're just, they're just a bunch of these
guys like Will Robertson all have really good underlying data
and they all kind of play all the same position.
So I'm not sure how they're gonna fit in.
But it's really good to see thatwe have the kind of mid 20s
(44:13):
prospects that are again performing well.
You have a list out that has four 4 Blue Jays pitching
prospects being in the top 51. You have you have your Savage at
14, Cal Steven at 26, Ricky Tiderman at 30 engaged Jennifer
(44:38):
at 51. Tell us about those players and
what separates them and, and tell from each other and tell
them like tell us about some of the underlying metrics and
what's your favorite? I guess what's your favorite
underlying metric per player? I guess I like if if you want to
(45:00):
go there. So traders average.
I ranked him 14th. Honestly, that might have been a
bit low. He did kind of have a rough
outing last time out, but he is one of the top pitching
prospects in baseball. He was drafted the 20th pick,
their first round pick last year.
And the big thing that stands out with your Savage is kind of
(45:23):
how wacky and unique his releasepoint is.
He throws way over the top, over7 feet, kind of similar to what
Verlander was hitting in this primary Mean current current
Verlander, but again with your Savage another.
Really a funky fact about him isthat none of his pitches
(45:44):
actually moved to the glove side.
So typically you'll see a picture have again, they're
fastball, they're slider, maybe a sweeper or a curveball or
whatnot. But those breaking balls, they
typically move to the left side.But you're Savage, given his
like incredibly high release point, is able to just have kind
of this vertical line of pitchesthat don't move glove side, but
(46:07):
they're all kind of move arm side of it.
The fastballs kind of ride on that pitch.
I think it's a plus offering theslider again, more of that gyro
shape doesn't really move into that glove side area.
Really good. The curveball out of that nice
depth to it and the splitters depth through the big piece in
the puzzle for you Savage. I'm really good vertical
(46:28):
separation from that fastball, especially from that release
point. It get some really, really funky
angles for batters and we've seen him just absolutely
decimate a minor league hitters this year.
So he's there. Number one pitching prospect.
I really like him. I think they did a really good
job. I guess scoping out last year,
(46:49):
he was kind of pinned to be moreof a top ten guy before an
injury kind of I heard a stock abit, but again, picking up at 20
seemed like a really good graph for the Blue Jays.
Cal Steven, their second round pick from last year, he has
performed really well at low A. So again you Savage, Cal, Steven
(47:14):
and also Stanford, they were allkind of they moved, they started
in Dunedin and they moved together to Vancouver.
I just Savage is now moved on todoubly while Steven and
Sandpaper are now in I Vancouver.
But Steven again an advanced armin the draft.
I realized the fastball again that high ride riding action and
(47:35):
then the kind of the key piece for Steven is that change up
again. That vertical separation is what
you want to see between your fastball and your changeup.
Any supplements it with a pair of breaking balls.
Steve and I ranked him 26 in thetop 50.
That's still pretty good range for him.
I think he's a top 100 prospect and they used to do well.
(47:59):
Ricky Tiedeman, he's ranked 30th.
It's really tricky to rank players that are currently
rehabbing or they haven't reallyhasn't really come back yet.
But Tiedeman went healthy as a really deceptive lefty, as a
really flat fastball and a really big sweeping slider and a
(48:19):
strong change up. So again, I'm hopefully once
he's back we can get some more data on him.
Maybe he'll pitch later this year.
AAA right near the end of the season.
I'm not expecting that though, but from the reports we've heard
it seems to be progressing well and he's still just 22 years old
and he is already in AAA. He was one of the best pitching
(48:42):
prospects prior to his injury and I expect him to kind of get
back into the groove once he once he returns and Standiford,
he has been out of my one of my prospect crushes this year.
He has been fantastic low a absolutely dominated.
It was basically every game you're Savage pick Stanifer
(49:03):
followed him up. There was like 5 innings of your
savage 4 innings to stand up forand I think they won all but one
game and it was just domination throughout.
Staniford he is I ranked him 51 again, more of this range.
I was just putting more players pictures that I really like in
(49:24):
it and I stand up for. I really, really do like he has
a very flat fastball so that helps it play out really high in
the zone. Batteries will miss it and the
slider is really good. So as we were talking about kind
of Brendan Little that death allslider or the default curveball
Standifer has a very similar type pitch more now he's this is
(49:46):
from the right side instead of the lefty.
But again, that is watching him throw that page and just
absolutely fool batters in the minors this year.
Hilarious and it grades out exceptionally well.
And he also has a change up to kind of round everything out,
but against Stanifer, um, definitely in a tier below your
(50:10):
savage Steven Tiedeman. But he is one of my favorite
pitching prospects this season. He's performed really well.
The next question I wanna ask you is I know you have a ranked
up yet, but he's another one that you drafted him last year.
It was right after your Savage and Cal.
Steven is Johnny King and he's ahigh school player and a
(50:34):
pitcher. Sorry.
And he's in the FCL, They're working on him.
And statistically he's been showing he's been good.
And you wrote some stuff about him, about his sinker and his
curveball and his whiffs. And what intrigues you to see a
picture like that? And, you know, some people
compare them with a little bit of Ricky Tiedeman, and that's
the type of picture the Jays aretrying to go after.
(50:55):
Like what are your thoughts about that?
And with King, he was a third round pick from last year, might
be in my top 50 if I is updated right now.
I just didn't really have much data on him.
I didn't really get to engage him.
But looking at the information sinker really good again, a lot
(51:18):
of ride, it's not really a sinker.
It's more just like forcing basketball good amount of ride
from kind of a below average slot grades out well in my
model. And then he has this kind of big
two plane breaking ball. Just completely fooled those
Tigers hitters and at least thatone that cash game we got of him
(51:41):
and the floor close league there.
Oh sorry, the complex league. So again, the stuff looks great,
generating a bunch of Wicks. He's doing really well right
now. He has 44 strikeout rate the
complex that he should be in Lowa soon, but I think he was
missed the first few weeks with right there.
(52:04):
I think I'm not sure I think he was dealing with some injuries
or what not want to work on him a bit.
But now he's ready to go up at least to face kind of full
season ball hitters. I really like kind of this
profile of him and he said like Tiedemann kind of I, I can see,
I can see that comment, that comparison right now.
(52:27):
Peterman has a more kind of refined change up again, he is 4
years older than him. So it'll be, it's tough to
compare. But again, I think King could be
on that trajectory. And I know Kylie Daniel of ESPN,
he loves Johnny King. Like he I think he ranked them
maybe in the top 50 or he put it, he ranked him super duper
(52:47):
high. He was the first guy I saw
absolutely in love with Johnny King and Allie is a fantastic
analyst scout. Evaluate her song again.
If he loves him, I I took a moredeep dive into him and Johnny
King definitely belongs with that group of these like these
(53:08):
top Blue Jays tissue process. The next question I have to ask
you is, is about and just what other Blue Jays prospects or
players that have statistically that we should be talking about
this season that that you feel haven't been really mentioned?
(53:29):
I mean, you lately you've seen arise of Tucker Tolman and and
you know, Grant Rogers has had anice season.
Are there, are there any guys that you that you want to throw
in there that you feel that deserve to be mentioned, that
I've had impressive seasons thusfar?
(53:50):
RJ Shrek, man, they got him lastyear and that Mariners deal, I
think it was the Turner deal. So he's been doing really well
this year. He made-up the AAA swing
decisions are fantastic, really good eye, doesn't chase and he
isn't too passive in the zone. He's doing a great job at
lifting the ball. Powers about average, making
(54:11):
good amount of contact. So again, lumped in that group
guys like an angle or Will Robertson just got this again,
these kind of older or mid 20s prospects that again don't like
light up the lamp when they wereyounger, but they're performing
well on this year and then drawnWatts Brown, we don't have any
(54:35):
stack has data on him, but again, he's doing really well.
All I can see is a 9394 mile hour fastball has decent shape
and above average. I'd say maybe leading towards a
plus. Fastball is a pair of breaking
balls that's slider. It has some slight kind of glove
(54:55):
side action. Which would you like to see
especially against same handed hitters?
The change up again, it flashes some solid characteristics as it
returns some pretty good resultsthis year, especially given that
vertical separation. Again, I guess hammer that in.
So I think I draw watts. Brown, doing really well this
(55:16):
year, is another name to watch with Blue.
To end this episode here, what are the Jays deficiencies right
now that do you think they need to improve for the trade
deadline? Because you look at all the
statistics right now, they're they're trending up with their
offence. I know that they're up there
(55:36):
when it comes to runners in scoring position, when they
catch and runs, they happen pretty decent on that.
But you know, some people say the pitching is something they
need to address specifically a starting pitcher.
Like if you look at the peripherals, if you look at the
velocities and stuff, like wheredo you think the needs are at
for the Blue Jays? They could always add more
(55:58):
defence. Not, not at all.
You're not need that anymore. But probably power is definitely
gonna be the kind of main focus is on the offensive side of
things. They are trending up hitting
more home runs, but might not betoo sustainable.
Players are hitting out of theirminds right now like Kirk and
(56:20):
Barger. So any more power may be a left
fielder. I know Santander due back soon,
right? But having like hopefully he
could come back, add that extra to the lineup, maybe with
Marshall as well. But again, having more power
definitely doesn't hurt. They strike out the least of any
team in the league. So again, they don't really need
(56:42):
more of those contact hitter guys they were focusing on like
we were looking at like Justin Turner last year.
Amanda already kind of feels that mole or just all these
contact guys sucking power. It'll be one thing to focus on.
It always helps to have more power and then starting
pitching. I'd say it's I don't really feel
(57:05):
confident in any of their starters entering I guess or
playoff start. It's a way too inconsistent
right now. Like Gausman, he's doing OK, but
again, we see some starts, he just doesn't have it.
Berrios again, I I I don't feel confident or comfortably
(57:25):
throwing and these guys out in like a do or die game.
So having maybe just, I'm more like #2 three guy they can trade
for, that'll be interesting again.
They've been playing around with, they have Turnbull now.
They got Eric Lauer about in. Francis is struggling and
Scherzer is hopefully back soon.It's it's now have I guess the
(57:50):
talent to make a playoff runningin there.
They are again in like playoff odds and whatnot.
They are in that top 6. They're performing really well.
And again, there's still due back like Santander, Varsho,
Scherzer, They have guys ready to go back and seems like the
team is performing well just nowgetting to kind of a more sound
(58:13):
starting rotation. Thomas, we appreciate you being
a guest in this episode. Great insight, great
information, great work. By the way.
Keep up the great work. Where can we find you on social
media and everywhere else? I'm mostly on Twitter from
(58:33):
Muslim Blue Sky, both at TJ Stats and you can find me my
articles that I write, more of, my analysis, my scouting
reports. That's on tjstats.ca.
If you're more interested in thecoding side of things, more of
that the data analytics, you could check me out on Medium as
(58:56):
well. I also have a GitHub that's
typically LinkedIn a lot of my articles.
So if you want to know how I getall this data, how I create some
of these graphs and just make iteasier for other people.
And then I also have a Patreon that's kind of my main area and
place of support for me. With that, you'll grant access
(59:17):
to kind of all the apps I create.
So essentially everything I share on Twitter or blue sky in
my articles are generated using these apps.
And again, I have a lot of people, they kind of raving
reviews about them. They enjoy them.
I enjoy making them and they make my life easy.
They make other people other people use them.
(59:39):
Again, if you want any prospect information, editors, pictures,
you can shoot me a message as well.
I can maybe hopefully help you out.
But again, all my stuff, a lot of stuff available public.
And again, if you want to support me on Patreon, be
greatly appreciated as well. Yeah, thanks for joining us,
man. It was, this was in a Lightning
(01:00:00):
episode. It was awesome to have you
today. You know, I love getting into
this part of the game. So learning more about that kind
of stuff is, is always fun. And you know, I know we got a
game and what about 10 minutes? Hopefully we can, you know.
Get a win right So. I was gonna say thanks for
(01:00:22):
having me on. Yeah OHS and we would like to
have you back down the road. We will place the description
below where all the information where you can subscribe to
Thomas Nistico. Till next time, take care, be
kind to each other. Signing off for the Blue Jays
Ave. Podcast on Friday, June 20th,
2025. No.
Welcome to another edition of the Blue Jays Ave.
Podcast. We have a guest in here today
who's very analytically driven and he knows his stuff.
Thomas Nistico, welcome to the show.
We're honored introduced to yourself and let everybody know
what you do with all this stuff you posted on On X and
everywhere else. Thanks for the warm welcome
(00:52):
guys. I am Thomas Nestico, also known
as TJ stats. You'll find me anywhere really
Twitter XI guess blue sky. I have my own sub stack it
jstack.ca Patreon as well, whereI kind of grant access, create
apps and share them for other people too.
(01:13):
I guess play around with them and dive a bit deeper into
baseball analytics huge baseballfan.
You can already know that, but again, I love math.
I love science. You just love digging deep into
kind of these underlying metricsand just helping other people
understand baseball data as wellas again, I enjoy it so much,
(01:37):
kind of want to spread the love and help other people understand
it better as well. Thanks for joining us today and
taking time out of your, out of your busy schedule because I
imagine what you do super busy. I'm, it's just, I've always been
fascinated with that, that part of the game too, at the
analytics and stuff. So, and I love seeing what you
(01:58):
do, especially this year when the Blue Jays are, are, are
doing pretty well in some analytical categories.
So I love retweeting your tweets.
Uh, but thanks for joining us today and yeah man, we're just
excited to have you. Alright, so the first question I
(02:19):
wanna ask you here is so we're talking about the Toronto Blue
Jays. I believe they're like, they're
like in the middle of pack when it comes to WAR.
They have a negative run differential.
Their ER has been up and down incertain statistic.
What's that surprises you with the Blue Jays right now?
Right now, as I stand there, I think they have the second best
or second best wild wild card standings right now, right
(02:42):
behind the Rage. Yeah, So what I'm looking at it
with the Blue Jays season, you can kind of split it up into two
parts here, say before May and then after May.
Before May there were 14 and 16.So again, not too bad, but still
two games below 500 with a -34 run differential.
(03:03):
So when during that time span probably getting a bit lucky
with their wins. They probably shouldn't have
been just two games below 500. They had 22nd in ERA, they were
24th and WRC and they were second last in home runs.
And if we remember again, March and April, Bichette hit zero
home runs and then Satan there led the team with four.
(03:26):
And we know how slow start this year was, but ever since May
1st, it's kind of turned around a lot.
They are the second best hittingteam in the league.
Their pitching is still in that bottom third, which you really
don't want to see. But the bullpen strong, The
starters are still kind of flailing around a bit, but
they're hitting a lot more home runs.
(03:46):
So Bouchet, all his home runs have come after me first.
They got Barger's looking really, really good.
And Vladdy, even though he's nothitting too many of them runs
this year, he's been one of their best hitters, one of the
best hitters in the league really since the start of May.
And again, the record in that pan at 26 and 18 with a + 26 run
differential. So they're definitely firing on
(04:09):
all cylinders now. They're pitching is still
lacking a bit, but the batting is making, well, making up for
it in this time frame. And we've kind of seen it over
the past few weeks as well. They just don't give up, I
guess. It's just always kind of fun to
watch them and make their comebacks or even come close.
But the games are definitely more entertaining than what we
(04:30):
were seeing earlier this year and also kind of what we saw in
2024 as well. Two of the quote UN quote
unluckiest batters in the Blue Jays lineup this season of
Vladimir Guerrero Junior and Bouchette.
Vladimir Guerrero Junior has a WBA of what 348 and an X woba of
(04:56):
4/07 and Machete is has a rollback of of 316 and X robot
of 366. Could you explain to our
listeners what those stats correlate for the for for people
who might not know and like, whyare they considered unlucky in
(05:19):
that regard? So Boba or WOB as you would, I
guess see it on, say, fan graphs.
I think even MLB might have it on kind of their advanced page
that's weighted on base average.So what that essentially does,
it takes all the outcomes or theresults from a batter.
(05:40):
And I guess you can consider forpictures as well, but it takes
all the outcomes for a specific player and then wait kind of
their run value. So instead of looking at
something like OPS or slugging, say, I'll use slugging
specifically. When you look at slugging, you
have a single is half the value of a double, right?
And there's also a third of the value of a triple and 1/3 and
(06:02):
1/4 of value of a home. So it's kind of that 1234 kind
of waiting there. But when we look at woba, it
kind of scales or ways these outcomes by their run value.
So it's not just the raw total bases.
So it's kind of a better way to capture a player's offensive
production. So when we're looking at woba,
(06:23):
say Lamar Guerrero, which is around 3:50, and then we have
this expected robot, so expectedwoba, that's essentially looking
at his batted ball data. So the only thing that actually
go into it are active velocity and launch angles.
Sometimes they add in Sprint speed, but it's on a smaller
portion of the place, so lookingat exit velocities and launch
(06:46):
angle. So it doesn't actually consider
the spray angle. And that's where this kind of
deviation comes in, especially with a player say like Vladimir
Guerrero junior or Bouchette, who have kind of underperformed
their ex Robert this year. Both those players, they like to
hit the ball to all fields essentially, which again, it
(07:07):
doesn't hurt. It'll it helps keep their
averages high. They get a lot of balls in play,
hopefully get a lot of hits too,but it'll limit their home run
potential or kind of their extrabase hit potential.
Because the most effective batted ball is a pulled flyball.
It's the shortest distance to get over.
You can tap into more of your power since you're swinging
(07:30):
further in to pull the ball essentially just gotta get in
front of you have to have a longer swing.
Your swing is longer so your bats faster.
So that's essentially how science works behind it.
So if your bats faster, the ballis going to hit off it harder.
So it's easier to pull a fly ball for home run than it is to
hit an opposite field. But with Glad and Bassett are
(07:52):
doing, they're just able to spray it everywhere.
So again, they're doing really well this year.
They're having pretty strong production.
They're just not going to tap into that power potential and
that's why they're underperforming their ex old but
right now. So what needs to change for them
to be from unlucky to right downthe middle to some, well, I
mean, they're they're great hitters, but like, like right
(08:14):
now you look at them, they're off to school.
So like you, like you just described greatly about it.
But what needs to change from toremove the unlucky category?
It'll be tough because it's kindof baked into their profile.
Another issue with Gladys approach is that he has a very
flat bat angle, so he's not lifting it as much.
(08:38):
Again, he just sprays it everywhere.
So he's not lifting it too much and pulling it as well.
So it's it's I wouldn't really say there's much much to fix or
change about it. It's just kind of who they are
and who they've always been throughout their career.
But if they could find a little bit more lift or kind of maybe
(08:58):
increasing that flat there, the attack angle on their on their
swings, they definitely tap intoa bit more power and that should
help them again, more extra basehits and hopefully more home
runs. So the next question I want to
ask you is probably the MVP of this team right now.
It's Alejandro Kirk and he's been great both offensively and
(09:21):
defensively. I believe he was top top five in
batting average right now, but his wards actually topped 3 as a
catcher and probably better after yesterday.
But his defence is what intrigues me because if you look
at this field run value, it's number one in baseball.
Like the direct defensive run says it's top five keeps, it
(09:42):
just keeps getting better. So what?
What impresses you with Alejandra Kirk with those
statistics? You know, with Kirk, he's always
kind of shown glimpses of being really good at every aspect of
the catcher, but not all at the same time.
So the three main ones that baseball savant, for those that
aren't familiar, that's a stat cache.
(10:04):
It's just MLB's kind of advanceddata warehouse.
They look at blocking, caught stealing and framing for a
catcher. And Kirk over the past three or
four years, ever since he's really joined the league, he's
shown an elite ability in each of these categories.
Most of the time two of them, but not all three.
So this year he's doing an exceptional job with blocking.
(10:27):
Last year he was about middle ofthe pack and he was still a
really good at throwing runners out, stealing and also framing.
But this year again, he's doing the exact same thing.
Really good runners. They can't steal off of him.
He's his arm is fantastic, the framing he's helping out the
pictures of tiny stealing a lot of strikes for them and now he's
(10:48):
blocking. He's able to get down and make
sure that balls down low, they don't turn the pass balls or or
even wall pitches. He's just like, he's just such a
sound catcher and he's also backing it up with his his bat
this year. He's swinging the bat harder.
He's not sacrificing his abilityto hit for contact.
(11:09):
It's just everything about him. Just he should be an All Star
this year. He's been there, MVP and one of
the best catchers in baseball. No doubt about it.
Um, that leads me to my next question about the Jays.
Next topic I should say about the Jays haven't got top three
catcher tandem and baseball. Are you look at their backup,
(11:33):
Tyler Heineman, who looks like Johnny bench out there half the
time He's got a 406 average justshy of 1000 OPS.
I mean it's only 64 at bats, butI mean he's doing exactly what
you want him to do from a backupcatcher and he's providing
defence. So what do you what are your
(11:53):
thoughts on on and rock? You just mentioned the the
incredibly both you guys just mentioned the incredible season
Kirks having he's he's in my opinion, it's call rally and him
for the All Star team. And but you look at the just
just what's that? What makes them So, what they're
doing so special this year? Yeah, Kirk, again, I can't
(12:17):
really talk about him enough. He's been exceptional this year,
their hottest hitters since, again, that started May, again,
that starting point, even throughout the whole season,
he's just hitting the cover off the ball.
Heinemann, it's a bit different,but again, really solid defence
for backup catcher, exactly whatyou want to see.
He's not going to play every day.
The hitting, again, it's really come out of nowhere.
(12:40):
I don't really think it's too sustainable.
But again, who cares? He's hitting the ball well.
He's doing it. He's just he's doing what you
want for our backup catcher, kind of seeing what Carson Kelly
was doing with the Cubs earlier this year.
So again, I don't expect this 400 average to stay.
But again, if he can even hit close to 300, then he puts a lot
(13:03):
of balls in play with good defensive metrics.
Again, no complaints here and they'll continue to be one of
the strongest catching tandems in the league.
So the next question is probablyprobably one of one of the
biggest player breakout players in baseball and that's Addison
Barger. And it's shown his advertise.
(13:25):
I know statistically you posted some stats last year when he got
called up and you know, this front office has been very
patient with a guy like Barger. And statistically, if you look
at him itself, I mean the plus plus bad speed, lift ball.
And this is all from you, by theway, credit to you.
And you look at his defence, it's top 10 with a DFS right
(13:49):
with Ernie Coleman, which we'll talk talk to him about later on
in this episode. But talk to me about Addison
Barger. Can be it's even more of a right
fielder. Is he more of a third base?
But I talk a little bit more deeper into its bat with this,
especially with his exit velocity.
Yeah, so Addison Barger, out of all the batters on the team
(14:13):
right now, he has the best quality of contact metrics.
He's just smokes the ball like elite plus plus bat speed power
is lifting it. He's basically doing everything
you want to see from a hitter without sacrificing really any
other aspect of his game. He has about average chase
rates, average whiff rates. Not striking out of time is not
(14:35):
walking a ton either. But again, you can supplement
this elite power he's showing with, again, just seemingly
decent or average plate discipline and contact metrics.
You have the recipe or one of the complete hitter and he's
been on fire lately. Again, the quality of contacts
(14:56):
fantastic. Everything he's not, again, he's
not getting lucky. Essentially everything is doing
is backed up by his underlying metrics.
And now looking at is going to be 1/3 baseman, Is he going to
be a corner outfielder? I think third base is probably
where it will stick at, especially with that cannon of
an arm. But again, he can also stick in
(15:17):
the corners because his arm is ridiculous.
It's a hunch percentile, the hardest thrower in the league
and this year is showing how better range at third base.
So he's now batting second. Everything he's doing is just
incredible. He's exceeding all expectations
essentially. I was pretty positive about him
(15:39):
last season. Again, looking at his AAA
numbers, he's always been kind of this tooled up guy and it
seems like he's putting piercingit together and finally getting
a chance to the kind of prove himself.
Let me ask you this then. So we talk about active
velocity. He has one of the best bats
speeds according to, you know, with all the analytics and
(16:01):
stuff. Is it at the point that it's
better than Vlad, as good as Vlad?
Because Vlad is up there too? Like like ever since he's been
up? Like could, could his bat play
that high into a point that it could get to a point that's
close to what Vlad did throughout the years?
You know, with with Vlad, the the thing that makes Vlad such a
(16:24):
complete hitter is how good his eye is.
He doesn't chase much. He makes a ton of contact and
he's still able to produce theseelite eggs of velocities and bad
speed. So typically when you have a ton
of bat speed, you kind of sacrifice and some other
departments such as your contactcreates, it's just harder to
(16:46):
make contact if you're swinging the bad extremely hard.
That's why we have batteries like Louisa Rayas or Jacob
Wilson. They have really low fat speed,
but they're able to make a ton of contact.
They have great bat control Blade is able to kind of blend
is incredible power metrics thatbat speed with his really sharp
eye and good contact ability. Now Barger kind of they're
(17:11):
almost the same age essentially and glad he's already been in
the league since 2019. So it's kind of tough to compare
them right now, especially givenhow good glad he's been
throughout his career. But again, Barger has kind of
that same power upside as Vladdy, but not that same
(17:31):
offensive upside because that lack of, again, that the eye and
the hit tool. But again, I think Barger has
kind of all the tools you want to see, especially from a
younger hitter, essentially the first full season, and he's
performing really well this yearand I think everything he's done
(17:53):
is backed up and he showing off a pretty good, pretty good
defence right now, which wasn't the case last year.
So glad it's top five first basefor war and um, they just moved
them down to the third spot in the order and he's starting to
(18:13):
trend up. How important is it for him to
get that? But but how important is it for
the lineup as a whole that he bats 3rd and you have Barger in
between the two? Yeah.
So Gladdy, after signing that huge extension, expecting a bit
(18:35):
more, at least closer to what hewas doing last year.
But again, he's been pretty goodover the past few weeks.
April was definitely one of the slower, a slower month for him
and now him him moved into third.
Not that line of construction effectively doesn't matter too
much again, but your best player, second, third or
(18:58):
whatever order they go in. It doesn't really make too much
of a difference if you're looking at the grand scheme of
things and just the analytics. But if Lottie feels comfortable
batting 3rd and he's likes batting third or whatnot, and we
have someone like Bichette and Barger ahead of them able to get
on base, just again, put the ball in play, get on base, it'll
(19:18):
help Laddie. Just again or more runs if Man
offered me on 2nd. You have Ladie's power now and
he puts a ton of balls in play. Maybe he'll get some of these
deep, deep flyballs that maybe go for home runs or double s or
even if they're deep singles, you can score a guy from second
there. And again, both Bichette and
(19:40):
Barger there, they're not super fast, but again, they they can
run. They're not, they're they're not
a detriment on the base path. So we have a guy like Gladdy
with either Bichette or Barger on base.
It's a good recipe for excess versus scoring runs.
And I think just the lineup shuffling, moving around, maybe
just again, a mental game with them.
(20:01):
And I think also Bargers deserved, at least against
righties, deserves to be higher in the lineup.
And like any combination really works between Bachet, Barger,
Vladi and that top three in my opinion right now.
So the next question I want to ask you is about Bouchet.
(20:22):
We know that his bat plays to towhat his success is like.
He led the league in hitting a couple times throughout his
career. And now he seems like he's
coming back to form and that that's his dependency.
However, his defence is below mediocre.
If you look at his, you know, his metrics, there's a lot of
(20:44):
blue in it, right? And look, I, I get all that, but
can it be sustainable the way Boplays at shortstop and talk
about a little bit about what balances out from offensively.
I believe he has what, a 1.2 warright now.
And could that be a balance to the fact that it could only get
(21:04):
better or is defence is going tobe what it is?
And, and, and the other thing is, the other question is, is he
a shortstop long term? That's my other question.
Yeah, with Bichette, I think thedefence kind of is what it is
right now. He is a below average defender.
(21:24):
I know last year he had some positive metrics there, but
again, he was hurt and also we didn't get a large sample.
But again, I don't think he's a great shortstop in the future.
It depends. If he's on the Blue Jays next
year, is he gonna be a short staff?
(21:45):
Who knows. If they move on from him, I
assume he's going to get a pretty hefty contract and kind
of force his way to play shortstop from wherever he is.
So he probably will stick as a shortstop, but his glove isn't
great there. But you're using it mostly for
his bat, and that's kind of turned around this year.
(22:05):
Finally hitting more home runs and again as a leadoff batter.
I'm not too thrilled with him there again.
He doesn't walk too much, but heputs a bunch of balls in play
and that's all that Jays really need for him right now.
And the defence isn't too terrible like it.
(22:26):
Definitely near the bottom of the league, but it's not to the
point where like the rest of theteam can't keep make up for like
a minute. It's fantastic at second base.
We still have Kirk. The outfield defence is pretty
good other than Springer and right field, but again,
Bichette, he's just more of a bat for shortstop who probably
(22:47):
shouldn't be playing shortstop. Alas, he's a pending free agent,
so he's gonna play wherever he wants to play and he's gonna try
and maximize his value. So again, he'll stick his
shortstop this year and then moving forward it'll be a
question of what team he goes on, where he signs with or if
(23:07):
he's with the Blue Jays again, how they want to move forward
with them. OK, so let's talk about Ernie
Clement a little bit. How underrated is this guy this
season? Like in 232 at bats, he has a
297 average. I guess he's been on a tear
(23:27):
lately. Four home runs, eighteen RBI's,
750 OPS. I mean, he's he's done it all
for this team. You know, like he's he's been, I
think he's been one of the most underrated players on this
squad. So and he can and his defence is
pretty good. So tell, tell us a bit about
some of the metrics that back upsome of those numbers that
(23:49):
Clements putting up this year? Yeah, with Ernie Clement, he's
always been kind of that hit first guy, just not strike out
at all. And we kind of saw it last year.
He just doesn't strike out, doesn't walk either.
He just puts all the balls in play.
And the one thing that makes himsuch a, I guess Olympic hitter
(24:10):
is how he performs against right-handed pitchers.
Yes, he has a 408 average at 228WRC plus.
Sorry guys, left-handed pitcher.Sorry, 408 average at 228 WRC
plus against left-handed pitching this year that the
issue is he's not great against right-handed pitcher.
(24:30):
And now this is where in my opinion, I think this is kind of
where we can see Barger and Clement kind of hand them
together and become a really good platoon at third base.
Again, Clements defence is fantastic.
He can also use slot in later inthe game if needed just for
(24:50):
defence alone. But again, with Club Med batting
extremely well against right, against lefties as he's done
kind of throughout his career, and Barger being a righty
masher, I think both of them, they can just turn into this
like basically replacing Matt Chapman with more production
(25:11):
just because of how prolific these guys bats are against
lefties and righties respectively.
But yeah, Clement has been fantastic this year, the defence
really, really good. And he's just going to be, he's
just gonna hit and that's actually what he does.
He's just a nuisance for opposing pitchers just because
(25:32):
he doesn't strike out, he just makes contact all the time.
Really great back control and again, even if he is not
performing too well with the bat, that defends more than
makes up for it and he also has some pretty good speed.
OK, the next question is, I think something that this is
(25:52):
what this team's identity is, istheir defence.
And they wanted to go glove for best defence last year.
They continue to be the best defence if you look at their
field run value. And I believe the Braves are #2
right now, but the gap is, is, is a little bit of a difference
there. And also DRS their 5th.
And you know, you look at a bunch of guys out there, you see
(26:15):
now Vlads, DRS is improved. Alan Roden's one of the most
underrated guys and he's been upand down.
His DRS is top ten. Then you got Varsha who has
played only a plentiful game, not too many and he's top 10
Indian. Like is this what this team's
identity is even though with their offence it's only getting
(26:38):
better? And talk deep about how
defensively good this team is. Yeah, this team, like they won
the gold team Gold Glove the past two years and then they go
ahead and add Andres Jimenez andMiles Straw, who are both kind
of glove first player. So it's kind of ridiculous how
(26:59):
their defence improved after it being so good the past few
years. Now with Jimenez at second, you
have Kirk again showing off thathe is probably the most valuable
defensive capture in the league.And then you have Bar Show and
Straw kind of splitting duties in centre field.
That's kind of three of the bestplayers at their respective
(27:23):
positions defensively. And then we see Vlad again, he's
doing pretty good for his base. Clement really improved his
defence again. He was really great last year,
but this year is kind of taking that next step.
Bargers looking good, rodents good and left field Springer,
again, he's one of the worst in right field.
But again, when you have someonelike Marshall covering him or
(27:46):
Straw even, it's just, it doesn't even matter too much
what's going on in the corners when they can cover so much
ground in centre field. It's just this team is built
defensively. I, I didn't really like that
approach they were going for after 2023 and they missed the
playoffs 2 years and again, they're bats were kind of just
(28:08):
lagging behind. But this year it seems like
everyone's hitting like their stride at the right time.
And even then we're looking at even players like Bichette or
Vladi, they're not even at that peak where they can reach.
But we still have really good defence from essentially
everywhere around the diamond and it's it's fun to see and it
(28:31):
helps the pitching on as well, especially since the pitching
has been a bit lackluster this year on the starting side.
You know this, it's so funny yousay that about, you know, the
last couple of years and you look at it this way, like they
had a great check Once Upon a time and they traded him away.
Lord Escorial they had and he was, he was a streaky bad.
(28:52):
There were moments like he carried the team and certain
certain occasions and then Teoscar like I think a lot of
people were still upset about that.
Do you think it's been the makeup ground from having more
of a balance with this squad compared to like what would you
say between 212223 like 21? They had the best offence, but
(29:12):
their defence was OK compared towhat it is right now.
Like do you see a difference in that?
Yeah. I think what's going on with
this year, they're getting definitely more production from
again like the bottom of the lineup even in the middle of
lineup as well. But we were kind of missing the
past two years was it was essentially Vladdy versus the
(29:35):
world. Um, it wasn't really too much
like no one else was hitting forpower really.
Kirk had some down like was not performing well, but shit was
hurt last year. Springer has been on a kind of a
steady decline and he finally kind of brought it back up this
year. So I guess you could chalk it up
(29:55):
too. They just got unlucky the last
two years. It is a very large sample so it
is tough, but it seems like thisyear everyone's kind of hitting
their stride, um, together and playing sound, very sound
baseball. The base running that isn't too
great but the defence fantastic and it seems like everyone has
their role, they're sticking to it and they're performing well.
(30:18):
So which which pitcher the boogies pitching staff, first of
all, has been has been amazing this year where we know the
starting pitchers, you know, I've really come in their own
and you got Erica Lowers been really saving grace for this
lineup. They've kinda had to tinker
around the four with that five spot in the lineup.
(30:39):
But the bullpen has been just miraculous this year with a
bunch of guys who just constantly get swing and miss.
So which pitcher on the Blue Jays staff has the best swing
and miss in the in the whiff rate and and all that with the
analytics? So my opinion I think is also
backed up by all the metrics. It's Brendan Little, yes.
(31:02):
He has That was mine. I.
Guess he's a he's just crazy. Lefty's kind of a lower slot guy
has a ridiculous sinker and a crazy knuckle curve on the
sinker. It drops more than way more than
expected. So it just absolutely demolishes
(31:24):
left-handed hitters they cannot keep up with.
It is also really good against righties.
Again, that just adapt on that pitch is ridiculous.
The knuckle curve for those thatare more savvy with pitchy
terms, it's a depth ball and allthat.
All that means is it's just a heart like a high 80s pitch that
(31:44):
has minimal arm side movement, but it drops about like 6 to 10
inches and little is able to again, command that pitch really
well or loudly command it to allbut be really consistent with
the shape. And when he looked, we can
locate it at the bottom of the zone.
It is devastating. It has 58% whiff rate this year
(32:05):
that on that pitch alone, so oneof the best in the league.
And again, all you really needs is 2 pitches.
But then he started throwing a forcing fastball, not expecting
that gonna be used too much, maybe early in the count.
And then he has a cutter to kindof around everything else.
But again, that's sinker and that curveball.
He's been very sturdy piece and the Blue Jays bullpen and all
(32:29):
you gotta see is watching picture one time and you'll
understand why this stuff is just so unhittable for for
batters. So another picture I want to
talk about in the bullpen, besides Brandon Little, who's
actually been phenomenal has been Mario Rodriguez.
Like they transferred transitioned him from being a
(32:50):
starting pitcher to relief pitcher.
He had he had a hell of a may, Imean point 53.53 and ERA.
But talk deeply of what his stuff plays out.
How is he successful and what's working for him?
Yeah, so Yaro drugs. He actually won my AOL relief
(33:11):
pitcher of the month for May. He was fantastic.
You very, very big part of kind of the Jays improvements kind of
just their production and their wins as well.
The stuff is amongst the best inthe Blue Jays Blue Jays bullpen.
He's done a solid job at inducing chases, generating
(33:31):
whiffs, suppressing our contact.The sliders definitely been a
key for him this season. It's a really good weapon
against right-handed hitters andhe also has that splitter which
he throws against lefties. Just overall I think he him
being kind of that long man out of the bullpen feels like a
really good role for him. Again, the command isn't too
(33:55):
great, but again, him in like 2-3 inning spurts and really put
up really strong numbers and be a very effective piece of it for
the Blue Jays. And again, maybe they'll look at
him to do a spot star once in awhile, but it seems like his
home at least for this year. I don't think they're gonna
(34:15):
expect him to move into startingthis season, at least do these
more longer outings. But again, him kind of whenever
they need an arm, even a few innings, they know Rodriguez can
go in, he'll be sturdy and he'llhopefully give them some very
productive inning. I I wanna ask, I wanna ask one
(34:36):
more picture and a lot of people, lot of people didn't
expect him to be where he's at. And he's he's flourished and
he's just trending up in the bullpen.
It's Braden Fisher. Like his curveball is one of
like it's all of a sudden one ofthe most dangerous pitchers out
in his arsenal. Like the stuff is great.
He he was traded from, from the Dodgers for Vizio, which is
(34:58):
nobody expected this. But if you could talk a little
bit about him of how how that's working for him and with the
Jays bullpen stuff, that'll be great.
Fisher, he's been very solid ever since he's been up.
Very interesting Arsenal for him.
He has doesn't really throw his fastball much.
(35:18):
He is primarily A slider curveball guy.
You don't see that too much. But he also throws mid 90s.
So it's kind of interesting thathe's not really relying on his
fastball much. But again, the slider there was
mostly as right-handed hitters, very tight glove side action
there and the curveball very steep pitch.
(35:40):
It drops a ton at 84 miles an hour, definitely not really
expected. So both those pitches I see are
plus plus offerings. Again, that's sixty grade range
for them and it seems to be performing really well.
He has a 36% strikeout rate, generating a bunch of lifts and
(36:03):
chases. So good.
He's not walking anyone, he's striking out a bunch of guys.
The stuff looks great as well and he seems to be just zoning
it too. So it's not that batters can't
really I like chasing or like WHIP, like just he's like able
to pinpoint these pitches and let us stop speak for himself.
(36:23):
He's not afraid to put a slider or put a curveball in the zone
because he knows that batters are going to struggle against
it. And I really think he's
definitely a key piece to it. Again, getting him for Vizio?
Yep, very good, especially if the team struggled so much last
year with their bullpen and now this year it seems like everyone
(36:46):
in the bullpen is just performing well.
I wanna talk about Arjun Amal a little bit and just how special
this kid is. You know, he, he kind of
struggled his first go around with the, with the Dunedin,
sorry. And then he's just, he, he goes
(37:08):
down to work on his stuff at the, at the, you know, the, the
high performance complex and he comes in just, he just takes off
and he just, you know, he takes off the rest of the season.
He ends up in Vancouver and he'sstill taking off.
So tell us about the trajectory of, of a virgin animal and, and
(37:32):
just how special this kid can be.
And what's the ceiling in the future in your opinion?
Yeah, Arjun Namala, he's he's still just 19 years old.
Is kind of crazy how quickly he's kind of rising through the
ranks. One of the youngest players in
high performing really well on the one thing that stands out is
(37:53):
just his ability to hit home runs.
He has definitely plus power andit's undeniable at 19 years old
that it's just, it's just great.Like 11 home runs this year in
60 games. I get skin more advanced
competition than basically anyone will see at 19 years old
(38:17):
plus plus depending on how OK grows that grows into his frame
6-1 Maybe you could add a bit more muscle there more more
power on the swing. Decisions are solid.
He's making a lot more contact this year.
The striker rates down from over30% last year.
It's now hovering around 20% this season.
(38:38):
It's a meteoric rise. I've seen him ranked as high as
top 50. I think that's a pretty good
range for him. Now I just again, like to see a
bit more of those underlying exit velocities work up a bit.
But again, if he can continue, hey, a ton of home runs making
more contact. He is he's definitely the Blue
(39:01):
Jays #1 prospect again, he may be close.
Maybe you Savage might be close to him, but Namala, I think his
upside is is immense and Jays fans should be really excited
about him. So let me ask you this then
about Mamala. So right now he's classified as
shortstop and he's he's a he's, he's a big guy.
(39:22):
Like he's not a small guy, so could you see him play a
different different position? All depending on what happens
with both, of course. But let's just say if both
stays, could you see him at third base down the line or do
you think he's he has to move a different position, let's just
say in the oil field? Yeah, with with that I have, I
(39:47):
don't follow too much for the defensive side of things.
The prospect is usually on top. He had a lot of details about
him, but from what I've heard his defence has been OK this
year at shortstop. So I think they'll keep him up,
moving up through the system as a shortstop because if you're a
shortstop, or at least your practice and trained as well,
(40:08):
you can kind of move wherever you want.
The move later down the line, soI think it's it'll just be a
matter of how he progresses as ashortstop and then what the Jays
need of the future. Maybe they need a second
basement so Namala can go and goto second base, or maybe they
could fill in the outfield. But I think for now, they're
gonna keep him as a shortstop, especially seeing that his
(40:31):
metrics this year have been OK and he's still just 19 years
old. So it'll be more of a question
of if you could stick a shortstop and if not, where will
they need to play him Because hewould have that athleticism and
versatility to play essentially anywhere on the diamond or in
the outfield, except maybe not the centre field.
(40:52):
But still they'll they'll find aplace for him.
He'll find a place for him. Yeah, alright.
So the next question is probablyone of the most surprised
players and he was acquired lastyear in the trade deadline as
part of the Nate Pearson deal. And some of these guys didn't
know what they were. And your Hendrick Penango has
(41:14):
risen to the occasion that now he's in AAA and I believe he had
the highest OPS in AA for in theleague and well deservedly so.
And you know, some people like to make the comps of the Wilmer
Braves fine and dandy. But like and you wrote something
about Penango and talk a little a bit detailed about what, what
(41:36):
made him better compared to lastyear?
What opened your eyes about him analytically?
Yeah. So Penango, he's, um, really
well this year, especially in AA, kind of hit a speed bump in
AAA. But what the underlying metrics
now that we have Statcast data on him, kind of showing how he
(41:59):
did so well in AA. He has again, plus power.
He's dating the ball incredibly hard on that kind of Addison
Barger level. I'd say swings the bat hard.
He's lifting it a lot too, making a lot of contact, which
is great to see, especially witha player that has so much power.
(42:24):
The one downside I'd say in his profile is his and his plate
discipline or his swing decisions.
Again, he's walking at a pretty good rate, around 14% this year,
which is above average, but he is a bit too passive in the
zone, which may make him a bit help I guess if he gets the call
(42:46):
or whatnot. But again, plus power, close to
plus plus power, I'd say he's he's lifting his hardest hits.
That's what you want to see. And then there is some concern
about a swing. It is pretty flat.
It's also long as well. So it might struggle in the
majors. You might struggle lifting
(43:06):
against higher level competition.
We're kind of seeing that a bit in AAA G and it has a very good
barrel percentage. But again, he's he's a kind of
well below average launch angle sweet spot percentage.
And then the defence isn't all that great.
So I'll follow these stock stockin a corner again, which isn't a
bad thing. Jason Corners, I'd say part of
(43:30):
their weakest part of their teamright now.
But um, yeah, I think Penango with that power potential, he
could be kind of a nice plug andplay piece forum or even if they
maybe has a trade trip later down the line.
Because again, they have a lot of they have a lot of really
(43:51):
good prospects, at least hittersand AAA right now, like you have
RJ Shrek, like they're just, they're just a bunch of these
guys like Will Robertson all have really good underlying data
and they all kind of play all the same position.
So I'm not sure how they're gonna fit in.
But it's really good to see thatwe have the kind of mid 20s
(44:13):
prospects that are again performing well.
You have a list out that has four 4 Blue Jays pitching
prospects being in the top 51. You have you have your Savage at
14, Cal Steven at 26, Ricky Tiderman at 30 engaged Jennifer
(44:38):
at 51. Tell us about those players and
what separates them and, and tell from each other and tell
them like tell us about some of the underlying metrics and
what's your favorite? I guess what's your favorite
underlying metric per player? I guess I like if if you want to
(45:00):
go there. So traders average.
I ranked him 14th. Honestly, that might have been a
bit low. He did kind of have a rough
outing last time out, but he is one of the top pitching
prospects in baseball. He was drafted the 20th pick,
their first round pick last year.
And the big thing that stands out with your Savage is kind of
(45:23):
how wacky and unique his releasepoint is.
He throws way over the top, over7 feet, kind of similar to what
Verlander was hitting in this primary Mean current current
Verlander, but again with your Savage another.
Really a funky fact about him isthat none of his pitches
(45:44):
actually moved to the glove side.
So typically you'll see a picture have again, they're
fastball, they're slider, maybe a sweeper or a curveball or
whatnot. But those breaking balls, they
typically move to the left side.But you're Savage, given his
like incredibly high release point, is able to just have kind
of this vertical line of pitchesthat don't move glove side, but
(46:07):
they're all kind of move arm side of it.
The fastballs kind of ride on that pitch.
I think it's a plus offering theslider again, more of that gyro
shape doesn't really move into that glove side area.
Really good. The curveball out of that nice
depth to it and the splitters depth through the big piece in
the puzzle for you Savage. I'm really good vertical
(46:28):
separation from that fastball, especially from that release
point. It get some really, really funky
angles for batters and we've seen him just absolutely
decimate a minor league hitters this year.
So he's there. Number one pitching prospect.
I really like him. I think they did a really good
job. I guess scoping out last year,
(46:49):
he was kind of pinned to be moreof a top ten guy before an
injury kind of I heard a stock abit, but again, picking up at 20
seemed like a really good graph for the Blue Jays.
Cal Steven, their second round pick from last year, he has
performed really well at low A. So again you Savage, Cal, Steven
(47:14):
and also Stanford, they were allkind of they moved, they started
in Dunedin and they moved together to Vancouver.
I just Savage is now moved on todoubly while Steven and
Sandpaper are now in I Vancouver.
But Steven again an advanced armin the draft.
I realized the fastball again that high ride riding action and
(47:35):
then the kind of the key piece for Steven is that change up
again. That vertical separation is what
you want to see between your fastball and your changeup.
Any supplements it with a pair of breaking balls.
Steve and I ranked him 26 in thetop 50.
That's still pretty good range for him.
I think he's a top 100 prospect and they used to do well.
(47:59):
Ricky Tiedeman, he's ranked 30th.
It's really tricky to rank players that are currently
rehabbing or they haven't reallyhasn't really come back yet.
But Tiedeman went healthy as a really deceptive lefty, as a
really flat fastball and a really big sweeping slider and a
(48:19):
strong change up. So again, I'm hopefully once
he's back we can get some more data on him.
Maybe he'll pitch later this year.
AAA right near the end of the season.
I'm not expecting that though, but from the reports we've heard
it seems to be progressing well and he's still just 22 years old
and he is already in AAA. He was one of the best pitching
(48:42):
prospects prior to his injury and I expect him to kind of get
back into the groove once he once he returns and Standiford,
he has been out of my one of my prospect crushes this year.
He has been fantastic low a absolutely dominated.
It was basically every game you're Savage pick Stanifer
(49:03):
followed him up. There was like 5 innings of your
savage 4 innings to stand up forand I think they won all but one
game and it was just domination throughout.
Staniford he is I ranked him 51 again, more of this range.
I was just putting more players pictures that I really like in
(49:24):
it and I stand up for. I really, really do like he has
a very flat fastball so that helps it play out really high in
the zone. Batteries will miss it and the
slider is really good. So as we were talking about kind
of Brendan Little that death allslider or the default curveball
Standifer has a very similar type pitch more now he's this is
(49:46):
from the right side instead of the lefty.
But again, that is watching him throw that page and just
absolutely fool batters in the minors this year.
Hilarious and it grades out exceptionally well.
And he also has a change up to kind of round everything out,
but against Stanifer, um, definitely in a tier below your
(50:10):
savage Steven Tiedeman. But he is one of my favorite
pitching prospects this season. He's performed really well.
The next question I wanna ask you is I know you have a ranked
up yet, but he's another one that you drafted him last year.
It was right after your Savage and Cal.
Steven is Johnny King and he's ahigh school player and a
(50:34):
pitcher. Sorry.
And he's in the FCL, They're working on him.
And statistically he's been showing he's been good.
And you wrote some stuff about him, about his sinker and his
curveball and his whiffs. And what intrigues you to see a
picture like that? And, you know, some people
compare them with a little bit of Ricky Tiedeman, and that's
the type of picture the Jays aretrying to go after.
(50:55):
Like what are your thoughts about that?
And with King, he was a third round pick from last year, might
be in my top 50 if I is updated right now.
I just didn't really have much data on him.
I didn't really get to engage him.
But looking at the information sinker really good again, a lot
(51:18):
of ride, it's not really a sinker.
It's more just like forcing basketball good amount of ride
from kind of a below average slot grades out well in my
model. And then he has this kind of big
two plane breaking ball. Just completely fooled those
Tigers hitters and at least thatone that cash game we got of him
(51:41):
and the floor close league there.
Oh sorry, the complex league. So again, the stuff looks great,
generating a bunch of Wicks. He's doing really well right
now. He has 44 strikeout rate the
complex that he should be in Lowa soon, but I think he was
missed the first few weeks with right there.
(52:04):
I think I'm not sure I think he was dealing with some injuries
or what not want to work on him a bit.
But now he's ready to go up at least to face kind of full
season ball hitters. I really like kind of this
profile of him and he said like Tiedemann kind of I, I can see,
I can see that comment, that comparison right now.
(52:27):
Peterman has a more kind of refined change up again, he is 4
years older than him. So it'll be, it's tough to
compare. But again, I think King could be
on that trajectory. And I know Kylie Daniel of ESPN,
he loves Johnny King. Like he I think he ranked them
maybe in the top 50 or he put it, he ranked him super duper
(52:47):
high. He was the first guy I saw
absolutely in love with Johnny King and Allie is a fantastic
analyst scout. Evaluate her song again.
If he loves him, I I took a moredeep dive into him and Johnny
King definitely belongs with that group of these like these
(53:08):
top Blue Jays tissue process. The next question I have to ask
you is, is about and just what other Blue Jays prospects or
players that have statistically that we should be talking about
this season that that you feel haven't been really mentioned?
(53:29):
I mean, you lately you've seen arise of Tucker Tolman and and
you know, Grant Rogers has had anice season.
Are there, are there any guys that you that you want to throw
in there that you feel that deserve to be mentioned, that
I've had impressive seasons thusfar?
(53:50):
RJ Shrek, man, they got him lastyear and that Mariners deal, I
think it was the Turner deal. So he's been doing really well
this year. He made-up the AAA swing
decisions are fantastic, really good eye, doesn't chase and he
isn't too passive in the zone. He's doing a great job at
lifting the ball. Powers about average, making
(54:11):
good amount of contact. So again, lumped in that group
guys like an angle or Will Robertson just got this again,
these kind of older or mid 20s prospects that again don't like
light up the lamp when they wereyounger, but they're performing
well on this year and then drawnWatts Brown, we don't have any
(54:35):
stack has data on him, but again, he's doing really well.
All I can see is a 9394 mile hour fastball has decent shape
and above average. I'd say maybe leading towards a
plus. Fastball is a pair of breaking
balls that's slider. It has some slight kind of glove
(54:55):
side action. Which would you like to see
especially against same handed hitters?
The change up again, it flashes some solid characteristics as it
returns some pretty good resultsthis year, especially given that
vertical separation. Again, I guess hammer that in.
So I think I draw watts. Brown, doing really well this
(55:16):
year, is another name to watch with Blue.
To end this episode here, what are the Jays deficiencies right
now that do you think they need to improve for the trade
deadline? Because you look at all the
statistics right now, they're they're trending up with their
offence. I know that they're up there
(55:36):
when it comes to runners in scoring position, when they
catch and runs, they happen pretty decent on that.
But you know, some people say the pitching is something they
need to address specifically a starting pitcher.
Like if you look at the peripherals, if you look at the
velocities and stuff, like wheredo you think the needs are at
for the Blue Jays? They could always add more
(55:58):
defence. Not, not at all.
You're not need that anymore. But probably power is definitely
gonna be the kind of main focus is on the offensive side of
things. They are trending up hitting
more home runs, but might not betoo sustainable.
Players are hitting out of theirminds right now like Kirk and
(56:20):
Barger. So any more power may be a left
fielder. I know Santander due back soon,
right? But having like hopefully he
could come back, add that extra to the lineup, maybe with
Marshall as well. But again, having more power
definitely doesn't hurt. They strike out the least of any
team in the league. So again, they don't really need
(56:42):
more of those contact hitter guys they were focusing on like
we were looking at like Justin Turner last year.
Amanda already kind of feels that mole or just all these
contact guys sucking power. It'll be one thing to focus on.
It always helps to have more power and then starting
pitching. I'd say it's I don't really feel
(57:05):
confident in any of their starters entering I guess or
playoff start. It's a way too inconsistent
right now. Like Gausman, he's doing OK, but
again, we see some starts, he just doesn't have it.
Berrios again, I I I don't feel confident or comfortably
(57:25):
throwing and these guys out in like a do or die game.
So having maybe just, I'm more like #2 three guy they can trade
for, that'll be interesting again.
They've been playing around with, they have Turnbull now.
They got Eric Lauer about in. Francis is struggling and
Scherzer is hopefully back soon.It's it's now have I guess the
(57:50):
talent to make a playoff runningin there.
They are again in like playoff odds and whatnot.
They are in that top 6. They're performing really well.
And again, there's still due back like Santander, Varsho,
Scherzer, They have guys ready to go back and seems like the
team is performing well just nowgetting to kind of a more sound
(58:13):
starting rotation. Thomas, we appreciate you being
a guest in this episode. Great insight, great
information, great work. By the way.
Keep up the great work. Where can we find you on social
media and everywhere else? I'm mostly on Twitter from
(58:33):
Muslim Blue Sky, both at TJ Stats and you can find me my
articles that I write, more of, my analysis, my scouting
reports. That's on tjstats.ca.
If you're more interested in thecoding side of things, more of
that the data analytics, you could check me out on Medium as
(58:56):
well. I also have a GitHub that's
typically LinkedIn a lot of my articles.
So if you want to know how I getall this data, how I create some
of these graphs and just make iteasier for other people.
And then I also have a Patreon that's kind of my main area and
place of support for me. With that, you'll grant access
(59:17):
to kind of all the apps I create.
So essentially everything I share on Twitter or blue sky in
my articles are generated using these apps.
And again, I have a lot of people, they kind of raving
reviews about them. They enjoy them.
I enjoy making them and they make my life easy.
They make other people other people use them.
(59:39):
Again, if you want any prospect information, editors, pictures,
you can shoot me a message as well.
I can maybe hopefully help you out.
But again, all my stuff, a lot of stuff available public.
And again, if you want to support me on Patreon, be
greatly appreciated as well. Yeah, thanks for joining us,
man. It was, this was in a Lightning
(01:00:00):
episode. It was awesome to have you
today. You know, I love getting into
this part of the game. So learning more about that kind
of stuff is, is always fun. And you know, I know we got a
game and what about 10 minutes? Hopefully we can, you know.
Get a win right So. I was gonna say thanks for
(01:00:22):
having me on. Yeah OHS and we would like to
have you back down the road. We will place the description
below where all the information where you can subscribe to
Thomas Nistico. Till next time, take care, be
kind to each other. Signing off for the Blue Jays
Ave. Podcast on Friday, June 20th,
2025. No.
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