Episode 18 feat. Geoff Pontes- Diving deep into the Blue Jays farm system

Geoff Pontes from Baseball America joins us to discuss about how improved the farm is and dive deep into the Blue Jays Prospects . We talked about the farm and where it stands, the strengths, elaborating the last couple years in the draft, the top 2 prospects, other pitching prospects , pitchers coming back from Tommy John Surgery, the catcher depth, and many more!

Where you can find Geoff Pontes:

1. X: @GeoffPontesBA
2. X: @BaseballAmerica
3. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/author/geoff-pontes/
   

Episode Transcript

(00:30):
Welcome to another edition of the Blue Jays Ave.
Podcast. We have a special guest in here.
He's the writer for Baseball America.
Jeff Pontus, welcome to the show.
We're excited to have you on andtalk some about Blue Jays
prospects. No problem, man.
Yeah, happy to be be on and chatting some Jays, which is one

(00:51):
of my favorite teams that my I cover.
And my youngest son, who's one of the reasons I was late to
this podcast, is actually a Big Blue Jays fan.
So it's a it's a team that we follow in this.
House that's awesome, man now it's it's such an honor to have
you have followed you myself forfor a while and a long while

(01:13):
actually, and and love the work you do love the articles, love
everything about you man. So we're excited to have you
today and talk Jays with you. Sounds great.
Alright, let's get this started here.
So before I start start asking the question.
You were the last man standing compared to your colleagues

(01:33):
about the Jays farm. You talked about certain things.
Like, what made you think that the Jays farm was still good
enough compared to, you know, your rest of your colleagues not
being as high before in the past?
Yeah, I think this is like universe.
I don't think it's just the people that I, I work would

(01:54):
necessarily, but they've just had to listen to my my soapbox
rants about it for two years. And you know, I think #1 you
know, there was, there was a period in time where a lot of
the first round picks in the early round picks just didn't

(02:14):
work out right? Does like Logan Warmoth and like
those kind of guys. I don't think that's necessarily
been the case over the last couple of years, 3-4 years.
Um, and I think they've consistently done a pretty good
job of targeting players with interesting traits outside of

(02:36):
like the first two to three rounds, you know, and they, a
lot of those guys have come to fruition.
That's the one part of this system that's continually
worked. I think the other thing that I
noticed last year, particularly following the draft class and
when those guys started to report to, you know, bridge
league games and that sort of thing.

(02:56):
And and of course, we got some reports through back channel
sources and that sort of stuff. And just also being familiar,
familiar with Trey a Savage and and Cal Steven as amateur
prospects and just sort of what the upside what were was, you
know, what the measurables or soa lot of this stuff in terms of

(03:17):
like their ride numbers, the IVPnumbers that you're seeing, you
know, when they were in Dunedin isn't a shock.
And I think like even beyond that, the issue with the Blue
Jays system over the last coupleyears is there hasn't been that
like high end top 50 type of prospect.

(03:38):
And you know, it's been a rough June for Arjun Amala.
You know, the numbers today looka lot different than they did on
June 10th just for the overall season.
But you know, I also kind of look at it as he had two
excellent months, as you know, one of the youngest players in
high plays the position pretty well and he went through an

(04:00):
extended slump. You know, we've seen this before
and we've seen him kind of breakout of it.
So you kind of have that now andI sort of saw that lurking.
I think the other part of it forme is prior to the, the, the
sort of final conclusion with the Ricky Tiedeman story over,
you know, 2 plus seasons where when he was in the mounds and

(04:24):
healthy enough, Ricky Tiedeman was really, really effective.
You know, was AFL pitcher of theyear earlier in that season when
he initially had the elbow injury.
You know, he was one of the bestpitchers pitching prospects in
the minor leagues. He was up there with Andrew
Payner and others that are now in the majors, right?

(04:44):
And I don't think that's gone away.
It wasn't a full tear. It was some nerve tissue issues
that's going to be solved by thesurgery.
I feel as if he's somebody that,you know, a year from now we
could be talking about, you know, 8 starts into, you know,
his Major League career. And, you know, we're seeing the

(05:05):
guy that we saw, you know, beginning of 2023 and you know,
the end of 2022, because there'sjust not a lot of lefties from
that arm slot with that velocitywith two quality secondaries
like his slider and and change up.
You know, there was still some some kinks and stuff like that
that needed to get worked out. But I think all that stuff will

(05:27):
will be ironed out by the time we see him again.
So I think you looked at a lot of players like that, guys like
Alan Roden or Elvis Martinez, for his flaws, has been a
incredibly productive player as a professional.
Kendra Rojas just hasn't been fully healthy.
But when he's on a mounds, therearen't many lefties that are
that projectable and that easy where you're like, I could see

(05:48):
this guy and we've seen it in spring training two years in a
row. She hasn't been healthy
afterward, like hitting 9596 miles an hour consistently.
He's a guy where I think you watch him and it's like if he
stays healthy, the velocity projects and I think some of the
other arms too. Like they did a good job at the
deadline of not moving any substantial players off of their

(06:09):
team and adding maybe not top 100 prospects, but no top 100
prospects were moved the deadline last year.
It's becoming more and more rare, but they did a good job of
sort of picking from other teams, players that have Major
League futures, guys like Jake Bloss who had already been in
the major leagues very quickly, you know, Hendrick Penango, you

(06:31):
know, who's gotten better seemingly every single season
and I think can really hit. And I think it's the same like
an RJ Shrek where, you know, youtraded, what, a 3940 year old
Justin Turner and got back RJ Shrek, who, you know, maybe is
nothing more but a platoon bat for you at some point, but still
has some value. And, you know, I think we've
seen big growth for guys like Gage Stanifer and others this

(06:53):
year. So I guess like some of the
reason that I was so on the system and I wasn't claiming it
was like a top 10 system or something like that, but more
mid tier. And I think it's because of how
familiar I was with all these players.
I mean, I'm, I'm down in, in Dunedin area for three weeks to
a month every year in spring training.

(07:13):
So I, I see everybody that's down there covering it, watching
the game, seeing players in New Hampshire, seeing Buffalo when
they roll through Worcester, youknow, coming home, watching most
of the Vancouver games on on TV and Dunedin when I can, I can, I
can get away. But, you know, I think a lot of
it just paying attention, you know, and it was a system that I

(07:35):
think if, if you're tasked with covering every system in the
world, it's very easy to write it off because you just don't
have as much time And you're gonna focus more time on the Red
Sox and the Mariners and, you know, the teams that have, you
know, the high profile prospects.
But I don't know, I mean, I think the fun of this job and
like digging into prospects is finding players that are sort of

(07:58):
outside of that exposure funnel of players that we know about
when they're amateurs and then they're early in their pro
careers and they're on top 100 lists.
And, you know, they they walk into pro ball with big grades on
on them. I think it's more interesting
when it's, you know, someone who's a little bit more off the
radar and we do see, you know, development success stories like

(08:20):
that sort of stuff. You mentioned a lot of the
players of the players that are in the Blue Jays farm and we'll
dig deeper into a lot of those guys later on in the episode.
But what would you say that the strength is now for the Blue
Jays farm? Is it the pitching, infield,

(08:41):
outfield? What would you say go like
compared to, you know, a couple years ago when the farm was kind
of dwindling? Like, I mean what would you say
the strength is is heading in which direction now?
I think it's the pitching, you know, and I would even say that
I am hoping that maybe their first two or three picks this

(09:04):
year are position players. I would love to see a couple of
high school players in that mix as well, just outfielders in
particular. I think that's an area where the
high end upside is lacking. They do have some infielders
that are interesting, but I think it's the pitching.
Like you go through their pitching depth and they have a
bunch of guys with potential Major League starter and sort of

(09:32):
profiles. I think you Savage fits into
that. We talked about Jimin, Cal
Stephen fits into that. Jake Bloss when he returns in
his healthy, I think fits into that Kendra Rojas.
And then you add in somebody like, you know, Johnny King,
who's been the talk of the Florida Complex League over the

(09:52):
last month or so, um, you know, got his bump up to Dunedin
yesterday and, you know, as one of the more intriguing young
left handers in the lower miners.
So I think you you look at that,you know, Maroudas, the stuff
isn't fully back, but he's abouta year and change removed from

(10:13):
that surgery. So I think there's always going
to be growing pains. I'm interested to see what
marauders looks like next springwhen he has a full healthy
offseason and can train and he'll be back to probably 94 to
96. Like I saw him in spring
training and in 2024, you know, with a couple of breaking ball
shapes. So, you know, I I even think you
look at like Iran Watts Brown and the player that I saw in the

(10:37):
Cape here as an amateur before, you know, he he got he
transferred to what TCU and you know, I think he's grown a lot.
I don't know that he's more than, you know, a #5 fringe #5
starter, starter depth, but you need arms like that in your

(10:59):
system. And sometimes guys like that get
to the big leagues and get better.
And I think you look at the growth of like a guy like Gage
Stanifer and, and that's really encouraging.
But even outside of like the top15, you have guys like Ryan
Jennings who I think could be a,a high leverage reliever for the
Blue Jays pretty shortly. And you know, some hidden upside

(11:21):
maybe with guys like Brandon Barrier who if he eventually
does get fully healthy, we'll see where that goes.
I think Adam Macco could, you know, potentially get some
starts this year as well. Fernando Perez kind of is down a
little bit this year, but we've seen him perform.
And then you have a guy like Angel Bastardo, who, you know,
they grabbed in the rule 5 last year, probably shouldn't pitch

(11:43):
this year, but could be a playerthat, you know, a year from now,
you know, maybe it's pitching out of the pen or in a long
relief role for the Jays and could be kind of interesting.
And then like a lot of a lot of those relievers that ranked in
the top 30 last year, like a Connor Cook or a TJ Brock,
Obviously, you know, both those guys underwent surgery.

(12:06):
When they come back, they're probably pretty close to the
major leagues, you know, if if the stuff returns and they're
executing, etcetera. But I think a lot of credit goes
to, you know, Justin Lear, who they brought in as a as think
the minor league pitching coordinator, and then, you know,
Ricky Meinhold as well, who those two guys together over the

(12:29):
last year have kind of transformed what the philosophy
is. You know, first Ricky and then
and then Justin came in in the offseason have kind of, you
know, revamped the philosophy around, you know, the pitching
development. And I think in their words, and
I'll be writing about this probably later this week or
early next week, it was just focusing less on pitch shapes

(12:53):
and more about throwing your best stuff consistently in the
zone and attacking. Um, and it seems simple, but you
know, I, I do think sometimes weovercomplicate stuff or, you
know, guys start pitching to thethe trackman versus a
combination of, you know, tryingto optimize your best shapes and

(13:13):
consistency on those shapes and,and, you know, competing in the
zone and worrying about where you're landing it, You know,
because sometimes you're your best fastball, if it's located,
you know, poorly, it's going to get hit.
And you know, one of your, you know, sort of mid fast balls can
be located in an excellent thought and more often than not
is successful. So, you know, I think, I think a

(13:36):
big philosophy shift had a lot to do with this.
And the other part of it is, is they have a bunch of healthy
arms. I mean, they had a lot of
injuries last year very early on.
But I think you can see that they're they're building towards
something. And the last few drafts have
give a glimmer of hope that you know, the talent acquisition and
identification processes have gotten better as well.

(13:59):
Make sure you check out its article.
We'll post a description below once you later this week.
So talk about the last couple ofyears, the way they drafted with
their philosophies. I know that Shane Farrell was
deformed director no longer withthe team.
I believe he's with the Tigers now.
And you look at like you said, like they've drafted pretty

(14:20):
decently like this past year. They traded tries out.
We'll get to in that next question.
But Johnny King and and Kel Stefan, but they they drafted
deeper. If you look at a guy like Carson
Machina or Kobe Moran, who just got traded for Robinson Pena
like and the year before, like, So how do you look at the

(14:41):
philosophies? Who would you have to give
credit to when they found those guys besides Shane Farrell?
Yeah, I think a lot of it just goes to the the scouting staff,
you know, I'm sure the R&D groupis, is heavily involved in those
decisions as well. Yeah, I think, you know, I think
a lot of it is, you know, they, they are a team that does have a

(15:03):
good balance of of scouts and, you know, folks internally.
And it's just been a little bit more of a direction.
I don't think they've been wrong.
Like I, I mentioned for years, they've done pretty well in the
later rounds of targeting some inter interesting players.
It's been more hitting on the early round picks.
And, you know, I think it's targeting college pitching early

(15:25):
in this last draft and then, youknow, supplementing that with
maybe some lower bonus, but interesting college guys.
And then somebody like Johnny King, you know, had a little bit
of an overslot. It's kind of how they've they've
spent their money. I think, you know, you go to
2023 and you know, you of coursehave Namala up top and I think

(15:48):
that's also drafting in an area where there's upside.
I think, you know, high school position players and college
pitchers are the safest demographics.
You know, you look at some of the top of the draft college
hitters over the last 6-7 years and it's kind of a bumpy Rd.,

(16:09):
you know, like over the last fewdrafts, you know, the best guy
is like Adley Rushman and it's another one that I'm escaping my
memory off the top of my head. But like, you know, there's a
lot of like Andrew Vons, SpencerTorkelson where it's like, OK,
it's fine. Hunter Bishop.
I mean, it's it that's an area where honestly you're better off

(16:32):
shopping for college hitters andlike Round 2 and beyond.
But I think you look at 23 they got in Amala, you know, Watts
Brown and we talked about earlier, Maroudas was a good
pick and then they went after college hitters a little bit
later. They, you know, they grabbed
Jace Boroff and he's been prettysolid.
Nick, you know, Goodwin who's OK.
And then some of the, you know, the arms like a Grant Rogers

(16:54):
has, you know, really interesting change up players
like that. Sam Shaw was an interesting
pick. So I think, you know, it's just
like they've been more successful and just targeting
the right areas over the last couple of years.
So, you know, it's it's interesting because like I think
it's a reversal of that 22 draftwas a really bad one for him and

(17:18):
it was bad like up top. The later rounds were fine.
But I mean, you look at the barrier pic wasn't great, really
hasn't come to fruition at all. Josh Keshava, Kasevich, good
pick. That's fine.
I'll take that all day. Tucker Tolman's been an absolute
miss to the point that, you know, I kind of wonder how many

(17:40):
more years Tillman has left in pro ball.
Kate Dowdy is kind of the same deal.
Like these are guys that, you know, got decent bonuses.
You know you sent 2 million to Tolman and you know a slot with
Dowdy it, you know a little bit under 850,000, but then you look
in the later rounds and it's like rodents.

(18:00):
A good pick and he's a good pick.
Mason Flaherty has been a prettygood pick.
TJ Brock, you can't complain with that one.
Even Peyton Williams, not a bad pick.
Deborah Harrison has had interesting moments.
No one Perry was interested, engaged.
Jennifer was a 19th rounder in that draft.
So it's like one of those examples where I think like the
top of the draft the last two years for the Blue Jays has been

(18:23):
much better. And it's unfortunate that, you
know, that 22 draft I think in alot of ways set them back
because they had a lot of draft capital to do some interesting
stuff. And I think it sort of started
even at the top just, you know, in terms of that Barry era pick
when there were some some reallyinteresting players, you know,
still on the board behind him, Noah Schultz being one for high

(18:47):
school lefty. And you kind of it, you kind of
picked the wrong 1, you know, and Barriera got, you know,
about a $500,000 more than Schultz did.
So you mentioned a lot about your your Savage already.
It's kind of hard not to with the way he's he's just toying

(19:08):
with headers and he's still having success.
In one of my opinion, sometimes the toughest of the minor league
stops being AA. How do you project try your
Savage when it comes to a big league rotation and what's his
arsenal like? And do you think he has the
stuff to get Major League hitters out today?
Yeah, I do. You know, I don't think it's

(19:30):
gonna happen tomorrow, but it's quality stuff.
Um, fastball is, you know, mid 90s, you know, plus ride.
He's getting 20 inches of induced vertical break pretty
consistently. There's a lot of cut on that
pitch as well. And then, you know, he's mixing

(19:51):
really a cutter as his breaking ball.
It's harder. He will flip in a a curveball
every so often, but it's become a smaller part of his arsenal.
And that splitter is a true swing and miss pitch.
You know, he really doesn't haveanything that moves a whole lot
to the glove side, which is kindof interesting.
But I think could be effective just based on, you know, his

(20:14):
command of his arsenal, his ability to kind of stay out of
trouble zones, whether it's withthe fastball, the splitter or
that cutter getting a little bitharder and better.
But I, I think, you know, mid rotation sort of arm is what
you're looking at like a #3 starter, maybe a high end #4 you
know, I don't know that he has #2 or like ace level upside.

(20:36):
Sometimes guys surprise you. But you know, I, I don't think
it would be all that unreasonable to expect
production, not necessarily the same pitcher, but production
that's all that dissimilar from like a Tanner Bybee, which is a
nice rotation piece, frankly, and and a valuable player.
So, you know, I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't expect the second

(20:58):
coming of Roy Howliday, but I think he could be, you know, a
very valuable rotation piece forthe the Blue Jays for several
years. You talked a little bit about
Arjun Amala. He's considered the consensus #1
prospect in the J system right now.
And you, like you said, he's been struggling in the month of

(21:19):
June and he he was off to a great start till now.
Do you look at him as a regression?
I know he's still a teenager or it's still a developmental curve
knowing that he has to go through some adversity like
every prospect out there and work his way through because
there is no rush for him to to promote him until they know that

(21:41):
he clicks all the boxes. So what are your thoughts on
that? Yeah, I, you know, I think he's
already an aggressive level. Prior to this slump, Namala was
the best player in high. I mean, like based on the
numbers, like his WRC plus it was like him and Jared Thomas,
who was a college player with the the Rockies who just got

(22:03):
promoted. Both those guys in Northwest
League were hitting. I think, you know, it's just
sort of the nature of facing thesame five teams over and over
again, which is something that happens in the Northwest League.
It's only 6 teams and you know, I think the other side of that
too is just being a younger player and, and you know, having

(22:27):
to play a lot of games over a lot of days for the first time
in your life kind of wear down alittle bit.
I'm not concerned because I think you've seen such
tremendous progression year overyear from where he was in spring
training in 24 where I think youknow, internally there was some

(22:47):
debate as to whether he should go to an affiliate or not.
He of course did, didn't go well.
They shut him down. They fixed some of the stuff.
I wouldn't say so so much mechanically as as much as it
was like posture and and set up stuff, just better timing on the
fastball, you know, being able to catch breaking balls out
front. I think the other part of it too

(23:08):
is like some of his posture, he kind of was like through the
zone very quickly. So by adjusting some of that and
you kind of look at, you know, that post Florida complex league
assignment last year, he's covered a lot more of the zone.
He struck out less. He struck out a lot less the
beginning of this season even incomparison to what we had seen.

(23:31):
And then you factor in how younghe is.
I mean, he was 17 at the time ofthe draft, didn't turn 19 into
what I'm 18 until, you know, late October of that year, just
turned 1919 for the entirety of this season.
I think you factor all that together as a shortstop.
I think there's still physical growth and strength and to come

(23:52):
in that body and you know, I think you look at a guy like
Kamala and, and you can sort of see alright, like these are the
struggles. You know, he now has a, a point,
particularly this time of the year to sort of shut down for a
couple of days, make some adjustments.
I'm sure you know Blue Jays PD is all over this stuff as well

(24:12):
and sort of get them back to thebest version of himself.
There's very few prospects that don't meet some sort of hurdle
like this, you know, over the course of the season.
And The funny thing is, if he has a really good three weeks,
you know, all of his numbers aregoing to look great again.

(24:33):
It's just sort of the ebbs and flows of, you know, the
progression of prospects and particularly younger players
like this who are, you know, facing much older average
competition than, you know, they've ever faced in their
careers. I mean, you look at the
Northwest League, you know, sortof average age and you know, as

(24:54):
we mentioned, Amala is 19 and you know, the average age in
that league is like 3 1/2 years higher while everybody's facing.
So I think you got to consider that too.
You know, that, you know, college hitters, college
pitchers, he's facing a lot of guys that spent three or even
Four Seasons in a Power 4 conference or guys who, you

(25:19):
know, might have spent three years in pro ball before they
get to that affiliate. And, you know, these guys are
much more seasoned than a guy like Kamala and he's he's done,
you know, more than than tread water there.
You know, I think it just, it was a, it was a down June and
you know, you hit whatever one 38150 and in for an entire
month, it's going to drag down the rest of your your stat line.

(25:43):
Call Steve and we talked kind ofbit about about these two
earlier. You mentioned their names, but
Cal Steven at Johnny King have blossomed in the Miners this
season. They're both drafted in the same
draft last season back-to-back, I believe second and third
round. How good can these guys be in
the Blue Jays system, and what are your personal thoughts and

(26:06):
opinions on those two? Yeah, I think, you know, Steven
is probably looking like a #4 long term.
You know, I think there's more fastball velocity that could
come. It's about average to kind of
fringe average fellow. But he's another guy that rides
the heck out of that that his fastball.

(26:27):
He's got a bunch of different secondaries and pitch shapes,
you know, kind of the opposite of you Savage, where all of his
pitches kind of move in different directions throughout
the zone, which is effective. He adds a little bit more
velocity and you know, maybe he starts to creep into that sort
of mid rotation discussion. He certainly has kind of put

(26:48):
himself in the conversation of, you know, a top 100 adjacent
prospect this season is a prettygood athlete and you know, all
the the testing they do before the draft, force plate data and
jump testing and all that sort of stuff.
So that shows that there might be a little bit more projection
there than you would necessarilythink from the body.

(27:12):
But, you know, I do think he's aguy that, you know, projects as
a starter. He's got deep pitches.
He throws a lot of strikes. He gets deep into starts.
He's not looking for the strike out all the time.
Knows how to sort of manipulate certain pitches to certain zones
to get certain types of contact.And, you know, I think it's just
a very heady pitcher. King is kind of the opposite.
King is really raw. It's genuinely plus stuff now.

(27:38):
It's a curveball as his primary breaking ball.
It's a hard curveball with a lotof movement.
I think this is a guy that over the next couple of years you'll
see that Arsenal sort of expand.He has the ability to spin the
ball, interesting fastball traits, arm speed, physical
projection. Because he's young.

(27:58):
I think he's somebody that we could come back here in two
years and he's got a cutter and a gyro slider and like a sweeper
and, you know, has three different breaking ball shapes
and, you know, maybe throwing a splitter or something like that.
I do think that there's a long way to go.
So it's sort of like a very raw,uh, you know, young blossom that

(28:23):
you kind of can project how it'sgoing to look based on certain
characteristics. But until, you know, the bloom
starts to show up, you don't necessarily know exactly what it
is. But he's a fun player to dream
on. And I think that, you know, Jays
fans have kind of needed somebody like that, as there
really hasn't been someone like that since Ricky Tiedeman in

(28:44):
terms of a young, exciting, you know, high school pitcher who
was healthy because Meridius. It was a very small window early
last year. Other guys you mentioned already
about pictures you're recoveringfrom, Tom and John are coming
back from Tom and John as Ricky Tiderman and Brandon Berry are
like, like you said, Ricky Tiedeman is still ranked really

(29:06):
highly around around the top onehundreds and like you said, you
got brewery out. He's progressively slow right
now when it comes to recovery. Am I missing out any names?
I know you mentioned about TJ, Brock and Connor.
It's Chaz Dal is another one. Could you see anything or any

(29:26):
other names you could mention? Yeah.
I mean like Galus was heard as well, but I think like the his
prospect window is kind of closing.
I don't, I don't necessarily know, you know, that there's a
whole lot of upside. Bastardo is the other one I
mentioned, you know, who's coming off of, of Tommy John
surgery, but that was known whenhe was picked.

(29:48):
You know, Maco always has some sort of affliction he's dealing
with. Yeah.
I mean, I think with Barry era, like he, I don't know, he has
not been able to stay healthy and there's still been, um, some
concerns regarding how his recovery is going at this point,

(30:14):
you know, has struggled and the stuff hasn't always been there.
And I kind of wonder if there's still some aches and pains.
I mean, he really hasn't been healthy for the three years that
he's been a professional at thispoint, unfortunately.
So I think there is there's someconcerns there and, and it's too

(30:34):
bad because coming into the season and early on and in the
spring, you know, April, May, his recovery and the report that
were coming out were really good.
The velocity was back. You know, the action on the, on
the slaughter was back. And I think some of that stuff

(30:56):
has dwindled. And, you know, in the bits and
pieces of game action he's had, he hasn't been terribly
effective. So you have to wonder if maybe
some of that stuff is lingering.And then the other one be Jake
Bloss. Jake Gloss is recovering from
from Tommy John. Gates, Jennifer, you mentioned
he was drafted in the 19th round, pick 578 overall.

(31:20):
He's had been a huge success since he doesn't have having
been diagnosed with astigmatism.Astigmatism, it's a condition.
I've it's an eye condition, I believe where he has to work.
He had to start wearing glasses.But he was originally
piggybacking Treos Savage, I believe this year and I think

(31:40):
Baseball America had him at 15 to start the year.
Where would you rank him now, Jeff?
We added him to. I added him at 15 about 3 weeks
ago. He was in the 31 to 40s coming
into the year, but the arm speedand velocity hadn't come to
fruition yet. He had a big jump in terms of

(32:03):
his fastball quality, um, the shape in addition to sitting
more mid 90s to touching high 90s versus like low to touching
mid 90s. Like when I saw him in the
backfield following that draft, he was always interesting
because he's athletic. He's a good mover on the mound
and the ball comes out of his hands quick.
It's kind of an interesting deceptive look.

(32:27):
And, you know, I think probably some of the eyesight stuff
certainly helped with the command, but there's been growth
just in terms of like physical strength and, you know,
efficiency within his mechanics over the last year that's
allowed him to tap into more velocity, which I think has led
to more success now that he's been in Vancouver.
We've seen scanner for really sort of blossom as a starter

(32:50):
getting deeper into games. Had a really good start this
week against Eugene, I believe. And, you know, I think he's a
guy that now all of a sudden after being labeled as like a
future reliever, there's some starter upside with this guy.
And I think, you know, there's there's a chance he jumps to

(33:10):
like 10 on this list. I think probably behind like
King Rojas or Elvis Kasevich rodent, but ahead of like
Maroulis and Bloss and and WattsBrown is probably where I would
move them. And then we'll see where it goes
before the end of the season. I think there's still probably
more upside. You're talking to opposing teams

(33:31):
of like who they would ask for and trade.
They'd probably ask for King before they'd ask for Stanifer,
but that might be team dependentas well.
And I think the same with with Rojas.
But I think there's a case that,you know, you could have
standing for as high as 6 on this list.
You know, if you really kind of don't believe in or Elvis, you
know, are underwhelmed with caseEvich's sort of power.

(33:57):
And then maybe, you know, are scared off of a king because
he's so young and, you know, rawand the injury history with
Kendra Rojas. But I think he's more in the six
to 10 range now than he is in the 11 to 15 range.
So when we update again at the end of this week and early for
next, for early next week, I think his guy that will make a

(34:17):
little bit of a jump. Is there under any other
pictures that we're not talking about that should be talked
about like a Pat Gallagher, Kai Peterson or Austin Cakes or
Javen Coleman, who just got promoted to Vancouver?
Is there any other names that you would mention?
Even the ones I mentioned? I think Jackson Wentworth is is

(34:39):
kind of interesting, OK. You know, he's a guy that was
drafted in last year's draft. I would have said, I would have
said Colby Martin, but they traded him away.
Yeah. We had a mark in our pod too.
Yeah, we had him on our podcast,actually interviewed him.
But I think I think Wentworth isinteresting just cause sort of

(35:01):
how he was coached and how his arsenal was used at Kansas State
didn't necessarily make sense with the type of movements that
he has in his pitches. And I think the team kind of
challenged him with that, that Vancouver assignment and he's
been pretty good, you know, but there's some traits there.

(35:22):
I I don't know that it's 100% atbig league or a really good old
guy, but I think it's something and probably shouldn't totally
be it be ignored. I did really like that Kobe
Martin pick that they made and you know, he seemed he seemed
kind of interesting. But yeah, you know, I don't
think outside of those guys, there's anybody necessarily to

(35:46):
sort of hone in on or, you know,dive into deep.
You know, Grant Rogers is, like I said, is an interesting change
up. Beyond that, it's kind of
whatever. So how so, Mason?
Fluidity should have probably made the team out of spring
training this season, but he didn't make the team out of

(36:08):
spring team. But he's pitched really well and
he's been going through his recent struggles the last couple
weeks. So what are your thoughts about
him and, and the and the role he's played this year coming
from that Buffalo team? Yeah, I think they kind of had
this collection of believers over the last couple of years
that were interesting. You know, we talked about a

(36:31):
couple of guys that had gotten injured that threw a little bit
harder and, you know, maybe I believed in a little bit more.
The thing with with Flirty is, you know, he's just sort of
always gotten out consistently, you know what I mean?
It's a, it's a cutter and a slider.
Um, it's sort of an unusual mix that, you know, isn't, isn't all

(36:56):
that common because, you know, it's a, it's like a cut
fastball. He's sitting 90 miles an hour on
and it kind of is deceptive. Guys can't make great contact
with it. And you know, then he blends in,
blends in that slider in the low80s and it's like a two pitch
guy without big velocity. It's just such an unusual

(37:17):
profile. But he's kind of replicated his
numbers in the big leagues that,you know, he had a year ago in
AAA. So, you know, I know the RA has
kind of been junk, but I think you look at some of the ER
estimators and some of the bad luck, it's hard.
And, you know, I think I think he's been, you know, better than

(37:37):
expected. And it's kind of, it's kind of
an interesting story. Just, you know, there aren't a
lot of guys that kind of have very limited stuff that turn out
to be, you know, good relievers in the major leagues.
But I think he's got a shot to do so.
So you wrote an article regarding 5 up arrow MLB hitting

(38:04):
prospects with Statcast data. Worth watching.
And two of them have been the Blue Jays.
And I'm intrigued to hear what you think about this.
And the names are Victor Areas and your Hendrick Penn angle.
And when you look at Victor Arias, you wrote in a section
that he had the 90th percentile X velocity.

(38:25):
And then with Penango, he's comeout of nowhere.
He was part of the Nate Pearson deal last year, and he has
turned out to be the player thatnobody expects.
So talk about a couple of those guys.
And what are there about? Yeah, Arias really impressed me
in spring training this year. Just super twitchy and like it's

(38:45):
a, you know, he's not tall, he'slike 5859, but like he's
physical, like muscular, almost kind of built like a NFL
cornerback or, you know, like a a smaller like slot receiver or
something super strong. You know, the issue with him
was, you know, the angles aren'tgreat.
There's a lot of ground balls, but he does hit the ball hard,

(39:07):
doesn't chase, doesn't swing andmiss much.
So he kind of has that combination of like the big
three skills of like bats of allability, strong swing decisions
and, you know, underlying power projection.
So I think you look at that, youknow, he plays a very good
outfield, can run a little bit as well.
And he's just a really underrated, well-rounded player.

(39:29):
So like Arias a lot. And I think that, you know, over
the last month or so, some of those numbers have started to
come to fruition as he's been, I'm not mistaken, pretty Dang
hot over the month of June. Yeah.
Hit 316-360-2510 and I think that's, you know, that's kind of

(39:49):
in with three homers. So I think the power is kind of
coming. You can see how he's a strong
all around player. I'm not saying that he's an
everyday guy, but I do think that he's a big leaguer and you
know, I think could be a valuable sort of utility guy,
bench outfielder, platoon bat, kind of within that range.
But interesting 1 nonetheless. And Pinango, you talked about

(40:12):
his, I believe his chase rate isonly at 16.8, his swing rates at
37.9. Like did he did he make that
adjustment with Toronto or do you think with the clubs, their
philosophies just didn't work out in Toronto?
He just became the player he is right now.
Yeah. I mean, like he was.
He was pretty hot to start the season last year with the Cubs

(40:36):
in high and then and then AA before, you know, the trade and
then just struggled for a littlebit in New Hampshire for about a
month and a half. Um, you know, obviously went
back to those levels has been really, really good this year at
AA and then, you know, a little little bit worse at AAA.
But I mean, he's, he's walking more than he's striking out.

(40:57):
He's always had like good. He had a huge jump in chase
rate. I think it wrote about it in
2024 when he was with the Cubs, like his approach kind of
changed. There's always been kind of
underlying good velocity, but the supporting characteristics
weren't great. That's sort of changed over the

(41:18):
last year or so. As you know, he's running a
little bit better, he's moving alittle bit better.
He's been better in the outfield.
I think there's more confidence that he can play sort of a
fringe average left field, whichis what you need from him.
And it's a good bat. You know, I, I think he has
those combination of traits onceagain, like I think it's

(41:40):
probably more of like a platoon dot or a fill in player, but
maybe he surprises people and just, you know, hits a heck of a
lot more in the majors than people expect.
But there's good bats of ball skills, there's good swing
decisions that have really improved over the last year.
And he's always hit the ball fairly hard and the body's

(42:01):
better. He's moving better and you know
with with that improved outfielddefence.
So the way this year's gone, it's kind of a drag to talk
about last year, but the last year's deadline, we acquired
numerous prospects that we helped infuse our system this

(42:23):
year. Guys like RJ Shrek, you
mentioned earlier, Jay Hardy, Charles McAdoo, Jacob Sharp,
Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, WillWagner and Josh Rivera and John
Hendrick Pinango, of course, they they got him prior to the
deadline. But just talk about some of

(42:44):
those players and where do you think that those guys stand
within the like the hierarchy, Iguess you would call it of the
bougie system now? Yeah, I think they're all kind
of like mid tier in the system prospects like outside of the
top 10, but interesting than theless.

(43:06):
And you know, I think it's more depth pieces that are good and
you need players like that then necessarily like average Major
League regulars. I don't know if there's any of
those throughout that group. Alright, so I want to talk about
the catching system or catching depth into system, sorry.

(43:30):
And it's not as strong what it used to be.
And we remember we had the gamerannuals, the Riley Adams, the
Danny Janssens. Well, Kirk is still with the
organization and he's the everyday catcher now.
But like there's a couple other names I want to talk about.
Aaron Parker was also drafted I think, I believe with the last
year, right? And he's in Vancouver right now.

(43:54):
And Jacob Sharp was acquired in that including clause.
We'll talk about clause later. But the one that stands out for
me is Edward Duran. Like he was, he was part of the
Jordan Groshans trade a few years ago.
And he's been playing well for for Dunedin right now.
Like what type of catchers are these guys?

(44:15):
And is there anything to these guys?
Yeah, I mean, I think a few of those guys I think are more or
guys Duran is hitting. The receiving has gotten a lot
better. The blocking is actually really
good. Throwing is is good.

(44:38):
So I think he has all the traits.
It takes a little bit longer to develop a catcher, but Duran is
kind of the first guy since thatgroup that you mentioned that I
think has been of of note in thesense that, yeah, there might be
a Major League future. Here what are the players that
you mentioned in an article is there Revis Martinez and he's

(44:59):
been in the system since they since they signed him
internationally for quite a few years now.
He recently, I believe was last year he got he got the
suspension for the for the PEDs and he was killing it before
that suspension. He comes back, he's kinda, you
know, up and down. He's had his moments this year.

(45:20):
But where do you feel like he's stands within the organization?
And, and I mean with the emergence of of Addison Barger
2, like, like where would he play?
Where would he fit? Where would like, like, is he
trade bait now? Like, what are your opinions on
a Rose Martinez? Yeah, I think it's, I think, you
know, of all the prospects we'lltalk about today, I think he's

(45:42):
the most likely to get moved in the next month.
I just don't know if another team necessarily fully buys into
it. I mean, I I've been a fan of or
Elvis for a while. I think that since he's returned
from the PED suspension he just hasn't found a lot of
consistency. Um, got hot like he always does
at a point in May after being bad for the first like 5 weeks

(46:04):
of the season, which is like a consistent with the Elvis.
And I don't know if that's a conditioning thing or just, I
don't know, Um, but it seems like every year he struggles in
April and then sort of turns it on.
We've seen him be really productive over the last year.
Uh, points. I don't think the PED's were the
only thing that was feeling the power.

(46:25):
I think it's there, the bad speeds there, the power is
there, but I just don't know if there's necessarily a position
for him. And I think his lack of
defensive value is his biggest hindrance to already being up in
the major leagues, that he was even a fringe average defender
at second base. I think he would have gotten his

(46:45):
opportunity earlier this year, and, you know, they probably
would let him run with it. But we haven't seen that.
And the hitting hasn't been as good at AAA as it was a year
ago, which obviously leads to some skepticism.
Yeah. I mean, I think things have just
trended in the wrong direction for Elvis since that suspension.
And up to that point, things were going really, really well.
He was hitting for a long periodof time, was good in AAA again.

(47:08):
Now you know, it does feel like he's a little bit stuck.
And you know, you have to wonder, you know, how the team
felt about bringing him up. And then you know, the first
drug test he takes as a major leaguer, he fails.
I want to talk about some of theoutfield depth in the system
here and looking at some of the guys.
I know it's not the biggest names out there, but to me it's

(47:30):
a little bit interesting and I'mcurious to see what your
thoughts about this. Jace Porphyrin was drafted a
couple with the last year, a couple of years, couple years
ago from Arkansas to Sam Brown. Canadians been in the system for
a little while. Javon Walker, I believe J Cooper
wrote that he leads the minor leagues and OBP.
And a name that just got broughtup you wrote about is Yurman

(47:54):
Lacorte. Dive into those guys.
What do you think about those guys?
What are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I think Lacourt
is, you know, an interesting player.
They signed out of Cuba a year ago.
There's some power there, you know, maybe some ability to, you

(48:15):
know, stick in a corner outfieldspot for a long period of time.
There's a lot of swinging miss the powers that calling card.
You know, I think that's that's sort of the the selling point
there. Boriquen to me selling point
again, I think is kind of power,but he runs alright and he's
pretty good in the corner outfield spot.
I think it's just a matter of, you know, what is the hit tool

(48:37):
if it's a 45, I think he's got afuture on the big leagues.
Maybe as you know, a more of a, a, uh, a platoon type of player.
Um, but I do think, you know, there's, there's certainly some
talent there. You know, Dawson Brown, it's
tough. He's a phenomenal defensive

(48:59):
centre fielder. I just don't know that he can
hit. And I think he's kind of proven
that over the last couple of years that there probably isn't
enough bats to carry that profile.
What about Yorman Lacorte? Like I'm not a lot of people
know about this guy and is he ishe anything?
Like, I know he's 21 and he's he's in FCL, but is he is he

(49:23):
ways from being anything? Sorry.
What was the name you mentioned?You're mean Lacorte Ohsms?
Yeah, Yeah, no, Yeah, I mentioned the core beginning.
The guy signed out of Cuba, I think.
Yeah, Like, there's power there.It's just a matter of how good
is the hit tool. We've seen guys in the complex
like this with, you know, good power numbers and then sort of

(49:44):
wanderer, right? Like, how concerning is the
swing and miss here? And are the swing decisions good
enough? But I I do think that there is
at least upside if if the hit tool does click.
And sometimes with these Cuban players, it takes a couple years
to get adjusted to common Stateside because they're often
shut down for a period of time before they can sign.

(50:06):
So who are some other let's talkabout some other infielders in
the Miners that you that you have that you may have touched
on, but you haven't really gotten in depth on and you had
mentioned Tucker Tolman, who I I'm with you on that.
I don't know if he's ever gonna be anything but the way like he
might even be out of baseball and in a couple years ago.

(50:29):
I actually agree with that. Like guys like Sham, Shock, Josh
Kasevich, Leo Humez who was withthe team last year is kind of
making his had to make his way back Rally, Tarada, Christopher
Palacios, Damiano Palma, Gianni,etcetera.

(50:49):
Yeah, I think like Paul Maggiano, I probably just
doesn't have enough hit enough power to hack it as a as a big
leaguer long term. Could be a guy that fills in for
a team that's in a in a jam at some point.
Kasevich, you know, the injury kind of, you know, shut a lot of

(51:10):
his progress down last year whenhe was sort of trending very
much in the right directions. And I've always liked, you know,
his ability to play multiple spots in the infield.
Maybe he's not a shortstop long term, but, you know, ultimately
he's a guy that, you know, can play second, third shortstop

(51:35):
really strikes out, gets on baseat a high clip and he hits the
ball a little bit harder than I think people realize.
It's just, you know, you know, the stress fracture in his lower
back is just kind of really ruined this season.
And, you know, it came back for a little bit then was shut down

(51:55):
again. So, you know, maybe it's maybe
it's kind of up against the rails at this point with losing
an entire year. But, you know, we'll sort of see
where it goes. Yeah.
I mean, some of the other infielders you mentioned, you

(52:16):
mentioned, who did you mentioned?
And showers. Yeah, yeah.
Cool, probably might end up in left field long term.
Another guy that makes a lot of contacts, walks at a good clip,
doesn't swing and miss. Not a ton of power, but maybe a
little bit more. These are really good player.

(52:37):
I just I think, you know, there's no loud sort of carrying
tool outside of the the hit tool.
So he's really going to have to hit for that profile to work.
And and your thoughts on Riley Tarada?
It's a it's a good story. There's certainly power there.
Their performance has been, you know, pretty good at points.

(53:01):
I, you know, I just, there's nota lot of defensive value.
So it's tough with players like that in terms of like where,
where are they going to end up long term?
And he's already, you know, 26 years old, will be 27 in August.
So he's up there in age and, youknow, there's there's a lot of
strikeouts. He does walk, he does hit for

(53:22):
some power. He can run a little bit, but,
you know, without the defensive value.
And then some questions about the hit tool, you know, I think
it makes it more of like a, a quad, a kind of profile.
Skipper will more player that I neglected to mention before, but
he was recently caught up to theBlue Jays rosters.

(53:43):
Will Robertson. What do you?
What are your thoughts on him asa prospect?
Yeah. I mean, you know, I kind of he's
kind of one of those fringe guysthat it's like, I don't know if
this is a a Major League or longterm, kind of an older one.
But you know, was, was a good performer pretty consistently in

(54:04):
the minors. Kind of had a down year in AAA
last year and then really came back in a big way this year.
Cut his strikeout rate, upped his walk rate.
You know, I think by improving his sort of plate skills in
terms of bats of ball ability and making good swing decisions.
He's been he's been trending in the right direction.

(54:26):
You know, I think there's alwaysbeen decent EE's and, and and
launch angles there maybe kind of just a late bloomer sort of
prospect and, you know, can playa bunch of different know all
three outfield positions. So not that he's plus out there,
but I think he's at least good enough to to sort of hold his
weight. So I want to talk about two

(54:50):
guys, one and they both emerged,but one of been a homegrown
talent. The other one is via trade is
Addison Barger and Jonathan Clause say Addison Barger has
finally came became the player that Jay is a kind of expected
to be and Jonathan classes came out of nowhere ever since Varsha
has been injured and Santander. So can this be sustainable for

(55:15):
both those guys? And if so, like you said,
Martinez could be a trade candidate.
Could you see, will Wagner Loperfido still fit into the
plans or or David Schneider or those guys are are going to be
tried candidates in your opinion?
I think those guys, I mean, theycould be trade candidates.
I I just think like these are a lot of players that are kind of

(55:38):
just fringy big leaguers. They're not great athletes.
They don't have defensive value,you know, they don't have big
power. So ultimately, you know, it's
kind of they got a hit or they got to figure something out.
They got to add more power, morestrength.
And that's what's going to dictate, you know, whether

(55:59):
they're ever going to have full time roles.
If there are more like fiduciarypieces and like a trade, like
there's going to be a couple of other bigger names that would
get moved. I would think that Martinez is
still significantly more attractive than some of those
guys. You know, Loperfido is is an
interesting one. There's just a lot of swinging
miss. I do think that there is maybe

(56:20):
more upside than there is with with a Wagner and then Barger.
I mean, I, I can't imagine that Barger looks like he's he's here
to stay for the Jays for quite awhile.
Now with the Alan Roden, he's kind of he's been called up and
and he's kind of struggled at the Major League level, but when
he gets sent down, he kills it again.

(56:41):
So is he kind of one of them quad A type prospects or is it
just not enough data there to see or do you believe in what he
can do on the field and with thebat for the long haul?
Yeah, You know, I think once he gets his opportunity, he might
be a trade candidate and I thinkteams would be interested to
take him on because he's kind ofplug and play.

(57:03):
I think it's just a matter of making some adjustments, getting
to see legs right, like his baseball ability and swing
decisions, ability to get on base.
He's a really good athlete despite sort of like that boxier
body. He's a good outfielder and he
hits the ball hard enough that Ido think that maybe there's some
tweaks other teams might have made to get a little bit more
power there. Specifically what that might be,

(57:24):
I don't know if the top of my head, but you know, I think like
he showed in spurts in the big leagues and then it just wasn't
it just wasn't consistent. Some of that might have been
sort of searching for power a little bit.
I don't know. But you know, I think we'll
we'll see how it all sort of sort of comes to fruition.

(57:46):
But you know, I wouldn't say that, you know, the sun has set
on Alan Roden as being a productive day league, even
though being a little bit older,you know, and I think you you
see the production he's had whenhe's played in AAA this year.
He's been he's been pretty good.So to end up this episode here,

(58:09):
this is probably an important one because the draft is coming
up in about two weeks or so and the Blue Jays have the 8th pick
in this years draft. What are you hearing?
Who do you think they're targeting?
Because I've heard some stuff how they might go under slot
because they don't have a secondround pick.
There's a bunch of things they could be targeting like a

(58:29):
Kaiser, William Spoon, Seth Hernandez, El Willets, Liam
Doyle, Ike Irish like names likethat and JoJo Parker.
I believe Carlos wrote Kyson Witherspoon as as the latest
like. But what are your thoughts who
they should target and what is on their minds when it comes to
the 8th pick? Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I don't I don't have anyinformation specifically on what

(58:53):
direction they're going or, you know, who who they're going to
be targeting. I think a lot of those names
that Carlos mentioned make a lotof sense.
I think also, you know, potentially, you know, under
slotting there and moving some of that money to the third round
pick and maybe, you know, getting a prep pitcher or
something that they like there make some sense.

(59:15):
But they're going to have options.
You know, I think, you know, Wetherspoons won, Liam Doyle you
mentioned, I think JoJo Parker is definitely going in the top
10 is a good chance he goes there.
I think Steel Hall is kind of aninteresting name reclass.
So he's one of the youngest players in the class, him and
Eli Willets and like phenomenal athlete, a little bit more raw,

(59:38):
but I do think there's tools andupside not all that different
from an Argento Mala kind of a pick.
And then, you know, like Irish would be interesting as well.
Arguably the best hitter from the college side in this year's
class. I don't know if he sticks at
catcher long term, but I think there's still a chance he could.
We talked about some of the deficiencies for catching.

(01:00:00):
He might be a really good fit for them there at 8:00.
So I would like all those pics. I would like Irish.
I would like JoJo. Parker and you know, I think
Steel all I'm I'm a little bit less into Witherspoon.
It was a good performance. He has a few different pitches.
I just don't think that a lot offolks that I talked to with

(01:00:22):
teams about Witherspoon feel as if there's a lot of projection
or a lot to improve with him, which means it's kind of
stagnant. It's kind of see which, you
know, what you see is what you get.
Guys like that tend to be more like #5 starters than a #3 with
upside. And I think in the top ten,
you're trying to target someone who's like a #3 with upside.
That could be Liam Doyle. You know, if Liam Doyle is still

(01:00:44):
there and available, it's arguably the best fastball in
the class with a pretty good splitter.
And I think there's a lot of devpeople with certain
organizations that think there'sa, there's at least an average
breaking ball in there over timeand development and work.
And he's an interesting kid, youknow, be right at home playing

(01:01:05):
some games in New Hampshire nextyear as well.
So yeah, we'll, we'll see how that all comes to fruition.
But those are those are all interesting names that I, I, I
wouldn't take out of the realm of possibility.
Well, Jeff, we appreciate you being here.
It was an honor. It was a pleasure, a great
insight, great information. By the way, where can we find

(01:01:27):
you in Baseball America and everywhere else?
Yeah. So all my works on Baseball
America we do, you know, a few podcasts a week, a few articles.
I'm kind of involved in any of the staff stuff that we do there
outside of the draft stuff, kindof stay more on the pro side,
but do follow the draft a littlebit on my own and then, you

(01:01:48):
know, on on Twitter and all my handles across all social media
I think are the same. It's at GEOFPONTES, so Jeff
Ponce BA. Thanks for joining us today,
Jeff. It was awesome to have you.
Thanks for taking time out of your busy schedule to come on

(01:02:09):
our podcast. So it was great to have you and
maybe one day down the road we can get you again one time soon.
Yeah, absolutely. Just let me know and happy to
jump on with you guys again. Always happy to talk some
baseball talk. Some Jays will place the
description below where you can find Jeff Pontas.
But till next time, take care, be kind to each other.

(01:02:31):
Signing off on the Blue Jays Ave.
Podcast on Monday, June 30th, 2025.
No. Yeah.