Bulls, Bears, & The Bell Morning Edition 11/11/25

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Good morning, and welcome to theBulls Bears in the Bell Morning
Edition. Thank you for joining us.
OK, today we're diving deep intoMonday, November 10th, 2025, and
really the whole critical week ahead.
Our mission, if you will, is to tackle this really jarring
contradiction in the market right now.
We're seeing this huge, almost euphoric rally across the board

(00:20):
at the macro level. But at the same time, individual
companies, if they show even theslightest flaw, they're getting
punished swiftly, brutally. It's like the market is running
on massive hope and extreme fearall at once.
It's a fascinating setup. And that rally you mentioned,
it's really fundamentally a political event, maybe a
technical one too, a release of pressure.

(00:42):
It's a sharp snapback driven by the hope, the expectation that
this record 41 day government shutdown is finally ending.
That's letting some of that valuation panic from last week,
especially in tech, unwind. We're celebrating the potential
end of uncertainty, not not someflood of great economic data.
Actually, you could argue we're celebrating because we're kind
of blind to the data rate. OK, right.
Let's unpack that relief rally first then, because the screens

(01:04):
are definitely green this morning.
What was the specific catalyst? What flipped the switch?
It happened late Sunday down in Washington.
The Senate moved forward on a key procedural measure and
crucially, it had strong bipartisan support.
Got that sixty vote threshold needed to actually pass things.
So the market sees that not justas talk, but as real legislative

(01:26):
action towards reopening the government.
That 60 vote number is so important, isn't it?
For you listening, that means it's not just posturing.
It signals there's enough agreement to actually get
legislation passed this week. That's why the markets treating
it like a genuine all clear signal, right?
Precisely. And you see the scale of this
rebound because, well, last weekwas pretty painful.
Remember, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 3%.

(01:47):
Its worst week in like 7 months.Exactly right.
And the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow 1.2%.
So today is really just unwinding that dual anxiety, the
political mess, and those inflated tech valuations people
were worried about. And you can see that unwinding
play out on the futures dashboard looks like a strong
risk on appetite, especially forgrowth.

(02:07):
Oh, absolutely. The NASDAQ 100 futures are way
out front, leading the charge, Asignificant reversal there.
S&P 500 futures are up strong, too.
Yeah, but look at the Dow Jones futures.
They're positive, Sure, but definitely lagging behind the
big tech indexes. That tells you right away
capital is rushing back into those growth names.

(02:27):
They got hammered last week. It's a tech LED recovery clear
as day. And it's not just stocks, right,
This return to maybe more speculative buying, it's showing
up across asset classes, classicrotation.
It is. You see Treasury yields ticking
up a bit. That's classic capital moving
out of safe government bonds andinto, well, riskier things.
And maybe the clearest sign of relief is the VIX.

(02:49):
You know, the fear gauge. It's down sharply, dropped
nearly 7% last check. Wow.
Right. Yeah.
It confirms that immediate sort of systemic worry tied to the
shutdown is just evaporated for now.
And you're seeing global marketslike the German DAX reflecting
that same bullishness. OK.
So that's the the macro story, political relief, hope driving
things. But here's where it gets tricky

(03:11):
analytically because the micro story is just brutal,
unforgiving fear. And we've got 2 perfect examples
today showing that huge DAP, Treehouse Foods saved by M&A
versus monday.com just destroyedby its guidance.
Yeah, let's start with the one that really shows the sheer
power of an acquisition price Treehouse Foods, ticker THS.

(03:32):
Right. THS shares are just soaring this
morning, up over 21% last I looked.
You'd see that and think, wow, their business must be firing on
all cylinders. Quite the opposite actually.
Operationally, their Q3 report was, well, a disaster might not
be too strong a word. They reported a huge gap, net
loss over $265,000,000 and most of that was driven by a goodwill

(03:53):
impairment charge of nearly 290 million.
Whoa. Hold on, let's clarify that.
Goodwill impairment. That's basically the company
saying, hey, that company we bought a while back and paid a
premium for. It's not worth that much
anymore. Hits the bottom line hard.
Exactly right. It's a sign of, well, a serious
misstep somewhere along the way.So the fundamentals looked
awful, yet the stock is flying. Why?

(04:13):
Because they announced they're being acquired.
Invest Industrials buying them for $2.9 billion, the cash per
share plus this other thing called a contingent value,
right? It offers such a big premium it
just completely papers over the terrible operating results.
The buyer's price is the value now, not the current profit and
loss. MNA provides the ultimate safety

(04:34):
net there. OK, now let's flip to
monday.com. Take your MND day.
Why? No safety net there?
Just a sheer Cliff. This is such a perfect painful
lesson in how high growth stocksget valued.
MND. Why isn't a total tailspin this
morning? It's crashed?
What 15%? Is 20% hitting a new 52 week?
Low, and this is the part that'shard to wrap your head around,
they beat expectations for Q3 EPS revenue.

(04:55):
Both came in comfortably ahead of what analysts predicted.
So why they absolute collapse? It is 100% about the Q4 revenue
guidance management guided for $328,000,000 to $330 million.
The analyst consensus was closerto $334 million, let's call it
$333.8 million. So they missed the average
analyst guess by, you know, a tiny fraction couple 1,000,000

(05:18):
bucks on over 300 million. A fractional miss causes a 20%
stock crash. Yeah, that seems incredibly
punitive. Why?
No benefit of the doubt, especially when they just
crushed key three. Could they just be guiding
conservatively? You know, sandbagging?
Normally maybe, but not when a company is valued at say 20 or
30 times forward sales, which M&DY basically was.

(05:39):
Market has 0 patience for potential sandbagging at those
levels. For these kinds of hyper growth
names, honestly, the past performance is almost
irrelevant. The entire valuation, that huge
multiple, it's built on the future growth path.
So even a fractional miss in thenext quarter's guidance, however
small, it's seen as a crack in the foundation, a signal of
deceleration. It basically tells the market,
hey, that five year runway of perfect 40% growth.

(06:00):
We assume maybe it's shorter or maybe it's not as steep as we
thought, huh? It's like you priced a rocket
based on getting to Mars and then you see a tiny dip in
acceleration today. Suddenly the whole assumption
about even reaching orbit, let alone Mars, gets questioned.
That's exactly the mechanism. It triggers this massive instant
punitive RE rating of the stock.Investors just bail,

(06:22):
recalculating the value based ona new, slower growth model.
And if we connect this micro level fear back to the macro
hope we started with, you can see that unwinding theme
confirmed right in the sharp bounce back of those beaten down
AI name. Precisely.
Look at Palantir, Micron, NVIDIAall posting really strong gains
this morning. These moves aren't driven by

(06:42):
their own earnings today, it's just capital flowing back in now
that the political all clear seems to be sounding.
It's unwinding that valuation panic that really dominated
things last week. We also saw one M and a deal
that kind of put a lid on the excitement, didn't we?
Met Sarah MTSR. Yeah, MTSR is down about 15%
this morning, and that's after Pfizer announced they're buying
them for a reported $10 billion.It's not that it was a bad deal

(07:06):
for Metsura. It's because the other potential
bidder, Novo Nordisk, apparentlydropped out.
So the stock had this big speculation premium built into
it. Assuming this drawn out bidding
war, Once the option was over, poof, that premium vanished.
The stock fell back towards the actual deal price.
Kind of confirms the peak speculation passed.
OK, so this clash macro hope, micro fear sets up a really

(07:29):
interesting week and it's made even more complicated by the
biggest problem we have systemically right now, this
economic data vacuum. This is the real headwind, isn't
it? That 41 day shutdown basically
broke the economic calendar. Government agencies, they just
can't release the key reports onschedule, which means the market
and maybe more importantly, the Federal Reserve.
They're essentially operating inthe dark.

(07:51):
And we're not just missing like minor reports.
We're missing the big ones, the key signals the Fed uses to
figure out if the economy is toohot or too cold.
Absolutely. The October consumer price
index, CPI plus the producer price index, PPI and retail
sales all were scheduled for this week, November the 13th,
14th. They're almost certainly delayed
now. Without that core inflation

(08:12):
data, without the consumer spending numbers, the Fed is
just flying blind. They can't really justify their
whole data-driven policy approach.
It's like trying to sear ship across the Atlantic and
realizing halfway through someone stole your GPS and all
the charts. So what?
Does that mean for us, for investors right now?
Well, it totally flips the script on how we analyze things.
We saw it last week already. When the official data goes

(08:34):
missing, every other piece of information gets magnified.
The market's forced to treat these secondary reports, these
private sector surveys, as primary indicators because,
well, what else is there? OK.
So we need to know what is actually coming out this week
that we have to treat as a primary signal now starting with
Tuesday. Right.
Tuesday is veteran's day. Bit of a logistical quirk. the

(08:55):
US stock market is open, but thebond market is closed.
The key data point is the NFIB small Business Optimism index,
normally important but this weekcritical because we don't have
the official inflation or jobs reports.
We have to really dig into the NFIB sub components, things like
price raising plans or hiring intentions.

(09:17):
They become our best proxy for inflation, pressure and labor
health. And then Wednesday, lots of Fed
officials are speaking. Given they're flying blind,
every word is going to be dissected I imagine.
It really will be. We've got several heavy hitters,
Williams, Waller, Bostic, Collins.
The focus won't be so much on what they think the missing data
says because they don't know. It'll be more about how they're
coping with having no core data.How are they making decisions?

(09:39):
What's their fall back plan? The market needs reassurance
there. And then Friday we get maybe the
cleanest look at the US consumerpossible in this data vacuum.
That's right, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey, the preliminary read forNovember.
With official retail sales data likely delayed, this sentiment
report becomes probably the week's most crucial proxy for

(10:00):
consumer health and confidence. If that number misses badly, it
could really cool off today's macro optimism in a hurry.
So we're in this weird spot where the usual hierarchy of
data is completely flipped. For this week anyway.
It feels like earnings reports have become the new macro
indicators. That's the perfect way to put
it. Usually we judge company results

(10:21):
against the economic backdrop. This week we're going to use
company commentary to try and judge the economy itself.
The earnings calendar isn't super heavy, but the reports we
do get become disproportionatelyimportant.
We're all just searching for signals.
All right, let's flag the key reports.
We should watch as these economic proxies starting
tonight, Monday after the bell closes.

(10:42):
Tonight, definitely keep a closeeye on Core Weave ticker CRWV.
Think of this as our crucial AI proxy for the week.
After last week's tech turbulence and today's big
rebound, Core Weave, their key player in AI data centers and
cloud infrastructure, they'll give us the first real
validation point is that underlying AI demand still

(11:03):
strong are revenues holding up. A good report supports today's
rally. Any sign of weakness?
It could easily reignite those valuation fears from last week.
Looking further out Wednesday gives us a proxy for business
spending, right? That'll be Cisco Systems CSCO
reporting Wednesday after marketclose.
The market's going to treat thisas the main indicator for
enterprise spending for network demand.

(11:25):
It gives us a window into whether businesses are starting
to pull back on big infrastructure projects because
of all this political and economic uncertainty.
And for the consumer, our best insight might actually come from
Mickey Mouse. Basically, yes, The Walt Disney
Company, Diz reports Thursday. Before the market opens with no
official retail sales data, everyone's going to zoom in on

(11:46):
Disney's results, specifically things like theme park
attendance, streaming profits orlosses.
That becomes our cleanest read on discretionary spending and
whether people are still willingto shell out for experiences.
And finally, another key piece of the tech puzzle reports
Thursday. Applied Materials aim at
reporting Thursday after the close another vital semi and AI

(12:08):
proxy their guidance on spendingfor chip making equipment.
That gives us immediate insight.Are the big chip companies still
investing like crazy to build out AI capacity, or are they
starting to tap the brakes because they're worried about a
recession? OK.
So let's try and synthesize thisreally contradictory picture
we're seeing today. We've got the political all
clear driving this technical macro rally.

(12:28):
But underneath the micro picture, like that M&DY collapse
shows, there's just extreme fearabout future growth, very little
tolerance for error. Absolutely.
The the rally feels technical, it feels political.
But the real danger, I think, isthat the market is celebrating
the end of uncertainty, but it might be dangerously ignoring
the economic damage that's already been done.
We saw those private surveys before the shutdown deal showing

(12:50):
consumer sentiment crashing backto 2022 lows.
Layoff reports were picking up today's celebration.
It kind of lacks fundamental data support, doesn't it?
Which leaves us with that reallyprovocative question for you,
the listener, as you watch things unfold this week.
If and when the government actually reopens and those
delayed CPI and retail sales reports finally hit the tape,

(13:13):
will today's optimism hold up against the real economic cost
of that 41 day shutdown? Or will that delay data trigger
the kind of sudden, harsh risk off shock that this current
rally seems to be completely ignoring?
That eventual data drop, whenever it comes, that's going
to be the real test for this market's resilience.
Just definitely track that release schedule closely when it
firms up. Thank you for joining us for

(13:34):
this deep dive into these clashing market dynamics.
On November 10th, we'll be righthere tracking all those proxies
with you through this critical week.
Have a profitable day.