Episode Transcript
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Good morning, traders, and welcome to Bulls Bears in the
Bell. This is your morning briefing.
OK, let's unpack this. We are diving into a market
caught between really powerful relief and this profound
uncertainty following one of thebiggest political events of the
year, the end of that 43 day U.S. government shutdown.
Yeah, and the relief hit fast. Late last night, President Trump
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signed the funding bill, and boom, the market reacted.
We saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average surge 327 points.
That locked in a second straightrecord close, finishing up above
48,250. Four, that initial surge is a
fantastic headline, isn't it? But here's where it gets really
interesting. Because that relief high, it's
already crashing head on into a much deeper problem created by
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those six weeks of closure. We're calling it the Data fog.
That's exactly the right term. The shutdown didn't just stop
paychecks, it stopped critical federal agencies from collecting
and releasing the most importanteconomic indicators we rely on.
I mean, we're missing the October jobs report.
We're missing the crucial CPI inflation report.
This is the very information theFederal Reserve uses to set
policy. They are essentially flying
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blind. Flying blind.
And because of that huge information gap, the market,
which you know, usually digests 3 or four major data points
before breakfast, is now laser focused on just one single
report coming out at 8:30 AM Eastern, the jobless claims
figures. So our mission today is to
analyze how this this sort of desperation for certainty is
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driving a powerful sector rotation and really tearing the
tech market in two between what we're seeing as real AI and
maybe hype AI stocks. Exactly.
The whole market narrative has pivoted.
It's now entirely around which stocks can actually provide
verified earnings in this fog ofpolicy uncertainty.
OK. Let's broaden out, starting with
the global dashboard. We see this fragmented relief
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playing out overnight. Asia, which closed earlier,
showed some cautious optimism riding those US tailwinds.
The Nikki 225 rallied at .44% to51,288 and the Shanghai
Composite climbed .73%. And the gains in Shanghai were
actually supported by two things.
Yes, the US stability, but also a strong signal from Beijing.
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They plan to boost their domestic new energy battery
industry. So that gives China's market a
local reason to cheer, too. Right, a local factor.
But if you want a perfect example of how local policy
concerns can just completely override global relief, you got
to look at Australia. They're ASX 200 actually fell
0.5%. Why the contradiction there?
It's fascinating really. Australia posted genuinely
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strong domestic jobs data. Unemployment dropped from 4.5%
down to 4.3%. Normally good news, but for
traders this was the classic good news is bad news scenario.
That strength immediately just quashed hopes for near term
interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Strong economy meant less stimulus likely, so the market
sold off hard, completely ignoring that US Dow record.
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Wow, that really shows the complexity of the global picture
right now. And Europe sounds similarly
fragmented. Very much so.
The UK's Footsie 100 is the clear laggard today, down about
.3% near 9881. It's primarily because it's
completely overshadowed by theirweak domestic third quarter GDP
figures. They're dealing with local
economic weakness that frankly the end of AUS shutdown just
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can't fix. Makes sense.
What about Germany? Well, Germany's DAX is
technically flat, up just a tiny10th of a percent.
But that flatness masks some extreme volatility right under
the surface. You've got pharma giant Merck
surging over 6% on a stronger than expected earnings beat, and
that's contrasted directly by industrial powerhouse Siemens,
which is down 4.1% because it's net profit missed analyst
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estimates. So it's a very sharp market
right now in Europe. It really is a market of stocks,
not a stock market. If you miss estimates, you get
punished severely. Doesn't matter what the broader
index is doing. And that intensity carries
straight over into the US market, specifically into this
core rotation we're seeing continue in pre market futures.
We measure this via the enemies,you know, the contracts
representing the major indices. Dow's Eminis are holding a small
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gain, maybe 37 points, point O 8%.
But the NASDAQ 100 Eminis are leading the way down of about 21
points, also around .08%. And the catalyst for the Dow's
record closed yesterday, as you said, was pure cyclical
strength. We saw huge gains in healthcare
like United Health, Financials to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan
Chase. These are the defensive,
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traditional blue chip sectors people flock to when they want
stability. Meanwhile, the tech heavy NASDAQ
slipped .3%. Right.
And this rotation wasn't random.It was really kicked off by a
major rethinking of the whole AItrade.
The news that Japan SoftBank hadsold at stake in NVIDIA.
Well, that raised immediate concerns.
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Concerns about tech valuations that many feel had just run too
hot too fast, especially for those companies where the AI
promise hasn't quite translated into actual profits yet.
So this shift is kind of forcinga necessary maturation when you
say you have to separate the hype from the actual profit.
And we saw the perfect counterexample yesterday.
AMD surged 9%. That was after setting a massive
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$100 billion data center revenuegoal that shows the market will
reward growth, but only when it has real, tangible earnings and
guidance to back up the story. Absolutely.
It's separating the wheat from the chaff.
Or maybe the profit AI from the hype AI as you put it.
And if we connect this to the bigger picture, the cross asset
check confirms this market is essentially just waiting,
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holding its breath, driven by that Olicy uncertainty.
Look at bonds. The 10 year Treasury yield is up
one basis point. That's tiny, 100th of a percent
at 4.087%. It's entirely waiting for that
8:30 AM data release. OK, but wait, the shutdown just
ended. The government stabilized.
Why isn't the dollar rallying the US Dollar index?
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The DXY is actually under pressure, falling .2% to 99.29.
What damage are traders focusingon?
Yeah, it seems counterintuitive,but it's actually pretty simple.
The dollar was high partly because people were scared.
That was the safe haven bid during the crisis, during the
shutdown. Now that the immediate danger of
the shutdown itself is gone, themarkets immediately pivoting to
the economic hangover damage caused by that 43 day closure.
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And that damage makes people think the Fed might have to cut
rates sooner to compensate. And, you know, potential rate
cuts tend to push the dollar lower.
Got it. OK, shifting focus away from
currency, let's look at physicalassets.
WTI crude oil is trying to stabilize around $58.50 a
barrel, but that's only after plunging over 4% yesterday.
What caused that big drop? That was down to a fundamental
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structural bear case from the IEA, the International Energy
Agency. They're now projecting a massive
2.4 million barrel per day surplus this year.
Basically, supply is projected to outstrip demand aggressively,
and that puts a definite ceilingon oil prices for the near term,
it seems. OK, so oil under pressure, but
in contrast, gold is acting as the true safe haven here, isn't
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it? Spot gold is strong, up for a
fifth straight day to $4210.00 an ounce.
That's right, with a dollar weakening and all this policy
uncertainty amplified by the data fog, investors are parking
capital and gold. It's doing its traditional job.
Yet despite all this rotation, the policy uncertainty, the data
fog, the VIX, the fear gauge remains pretty subdued.
It's at 17.28. So how is the market reading
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fear then? What is the VIX telling us if it
isn't spiking amidst all this? Well, it signals a lack of
systemic panic. The market clearly sees specific
risks like the valuation, rotation, potential policy
missteps because of the missing data, but it's not pricing in a
complete Cliff edge collapse like we saw in, say, 2008.
It suggests investors are still sort of cautiously climbing the
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wall of worry rather than bracing for imminent disaster.
OK, let's talk specifics. Let's get into the stocks that
really illustrate this rotation best.
In the pre market moves, the gainers are practically shouting
a clear message. We want real earnings now.
Absolutely. Cisco Systems ticker CS KEO is
the top large cap story this morning up a significant 6.5%.
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Why strong Q1 earnings beat and they raised their full year
guidance. But the crucial detail, the
thing everyone's focused on was their new pangible $3 billion AI
revenue target. They booked $1.3 billion in new
AI orders just this quarter alone.
That $3 billion target is key, isn't it?
While these speculative AI namesare, well, some are collapsing.
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Cisco is rallying unconfirmed book AI orders and profits.
This is the anti bubble narrative that institutional
investors seem desperate for right now.
Verifiable monetizable AI business.
Exactly. And then you also have jd.com,
ticker JD, a 5.0%. Now, this one's a bit more
nuanced. It was a beat, but they actually
reported a massive 55% slump in net profit, blamed on a fierce
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food delivery price war over there.
But the market seems to be ignoring that noise.
Instead, they're cheering the expansion of the core JD retail
operating margin, which hit 5.9%.
So it's a classic, better than feared result focusing on the
profitable core business. Right, focusing on the core.
Now contrast that success with the losers, where the collapse
of speculative hype is just brutal.
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Vision Sys AI VSA is down a shocking 75.0%.
Yeah, this is the dark side of the AI frenzy, right?
A highly dilutive stock offeringdesigned to raise just $12
million for a company that get this, already had negative
equity. That is pure speculative cash
grab behavior destroying shareholder value.
It really is. And then you have the big one,
NVIDIA NVDA down about .7% in pre market.
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Look, it's not a crash obviously, but it is symbolic.
It's a continuation of that rotation we've been talking
about out of those lofty valuations and into the real
earning stocks like Cisco. I mean the massive spread
between Cisco of 6.5% and NVIDIAdown .7%, That's your clearest
market told today about this rotation.
OK. And this brings us right back to
the single biggest factor governing today's session that
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data blackout. Weeks of severe information
lack. Jobs report missing.
CPI missing. And this raises a really
important policy question. This severe lack of data.
It could genuinely contribute toa decision by the Fed to skip
the December rate cut that the market had been pricing in.
They simply might not feel they can justify a major policy move
without those critical inputs. So the relief from the shutdown
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ending has immediately created profound policy uncertainty.
Which brings us back full circleto the only official release
today at 8:30 AM Eastern Initialand Continuing Jobless Claims.
This one single report is carrying the weight of weeks of
missing data, and we know private data has been waked
recently. For context, October layoffs
were the highest for that month in 22 years, according to
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Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Right, and this creates a
critical paradox for the market reaction at 8:30, Scenario one.
If claims come in HIGH, say above the 223,000 estimate, the
market might actually rally. Traders will likely embrace that
old bad news is good news scriptbetting that weak employment
data forces the Fed to cut rateseven without the missing CPI
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data. OK, but the second scenario, and
this sounds like the worst outcome, is if claims are LOW,
say below the 220,000 mark. Yes, that's the tricky one,
because that would suggest a strong labor market on paper,
but without any corresponding inflation data to justify
keeping rates high. Well, it removes the Fed's
justification to cut without providing the inflation data
needed to justify patients. It just amplifies the underlying
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uncertainty. It's a potentially terrifying
scenario where a good unemployment number actually
makes the market more nervous. More nervous because the picture
is incomplete. Wow.
And crucially, there are no Fed speakers scheduled today to come
out and manage the market's reaction to that 8:30 AM number.
So expect volatility, especiallyif we hit that second low claim
scenario. Definitely something to watch.
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OK, let's wrap up with the technical road map for the S&P
500. It closed yesterday at 6850.92.
What are the key levels we are watching today?
Right immediate resistance. The ceiling is right there at
that 6850 level. Technical analysis identifies
this as a major option. Gamma level, which simply means
heavy options trading interest around that price, has created a
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kind of technical ceiling. It successfully capped the
markets advance yesterday. Bulls really need to
breakthrough that. The next target above would be
6900. OK, 6850 is the ceiling.
And what about the floor? Where's the line in the sand for
this bullish move? The critical support level to
watch is the 50 day moving average.
That's currently around 6668 andthis is hugely important
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historically because the S&P 500has not actually closed below
that key short term trend line since way back in April.
A break and close below 6668 would signal that this sector
rotation might be turning into something more serious, a deeper
structural correction. Got it. 6668 is the key support.
So to summarize the morning everyone, you are dealing with
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the three Rs. The relief from the shutdown
ending is undeniable. The rotation is dominant,
definitely watch that Cisco versus NVIDIA dynamic.
And the reality check on economic health is do sharp at
8:30 AM with that single lonely jobless claims figure.
And given the White House actually warned that those
critical missing reports like October CPI and the jobs report
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might never be released due to the interrupted data collection,
here is the final thought for you to consider today.
How do the Fed and investors actually price long term risk
and make crucial decisions basedon permanently incomplete data?
How does the market even operatewhen the economic map is
essentially half blank? That's a fundamental question
about valuation and policy in this new environment.
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Thanks for exploring this deep dive with us.
We'll keep tracking the rotationand that crucial 8.30 AM number.
And that's the Bell. Thanks for listening to Bulls
Bears and the Bell. Follow us to stay one step ahead
of the market.