November 19, 2025 • 28 mins
It looked like a state dinner ripped straight from a movie: fighter jets roaring overhead, a horse-drawn procession on the South Lawn, billionaires and celebrities in black tie on the White House grounds. But behind the spectacle of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s first visit to Washington in seven years was something far more consequential—a sweeping renegotiation of power, money, technology and morality between the United States and Saudi Arabia.In this episode of Daily Story Brief, we break down how one carefully choreographed visit turned into a wholesale reset of the U.S.–Saudi relationship. The hosts start with the symbolism of the reception itself: the flyovers, the guest list stacked with tech titans like Elon Musk and Tim Cook, global icons like Cristiano Ronaldo, and the unmistakable signal that Washington now sees MBS as the kingdom’s real decision-maker, head of state or not.From there, the episode dives into the heart of the new defense architecture. You’ll hear how the surprise designation of Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally (MNNA) vaults Riyadh into an elite club alongside countries like Israel, Japan and Australia—without creating a NATO-style legal obligation for the U.S. to defend the kingdom. The hosts explain what this status actually unlocks: access to joint Pentagon research and development, faster procurement of sensitive weapons systems, priority access to surplus U.S. hardware, and even the ability for Saudi defense firms to bid on U.S. military maintenance contracts abroad.Then the focus shifts to the most controversial hardware on the table: the F-35. The episode unpacks why selling the U.S.’s most advanced stealth fighter to Saudi Arabia reshapes the regional balance of power and collides head-on with America’s legal obligation to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge. You’ll learn how Washington tries to square that circle with “capability differentials,” custom upgrades for Israel, and even the ultimate failsafe—a software-based “kill switch” that could theoretically shut the jets down if they were ever turned against U.S. interests.But this visit wasn’t just about weapons. It was powered by an almost unimaginable number: a pledge to boost Saudi investment in the United States to nearly one trillion dollars. The hosts walk through how MBS is using that money as strategic leverage, tying his country’s Vision 2030 transformation to U.S. technology in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data centers. They explain why Saudi Arabia’s cheap energy gives it a unique advantage in the AI race, how massive purchases of NVIDIA’s most advanced chips fit into that plan, and why U.S. officials are nervous about the risk of those technologies bleeding to China.The episode also explores the emerging civilian nuclear partnership between Washington and Riyadh: the promise of U.S.-built reactors, the clash over Saudi demands to enrich uranium on its own soil, and the talk of a potential U.S. nuclear umbrella as the only thing that might convince the kingdom to back down. That debate feeds directly into the larger strategic picture—deterring Iran, avoiding a devastating Gulf war, and perhaps even reviving some form of nuclear diplomacy.At the same time, the hosts dissect the diplomatic brick wall around the Abraham Accords. Despite securing almost his entire strategic wish list, MBS refused to give up his public demand for a guaranteed path to an independent Palestinian state as the price of normalizing ties with Israel. The episode lays out why that condition is politically impossible for Israel’s current government, why the post-Gaza climate makes normalization even more toxic in the Arab world, and what that stalemate reveals about the limits of even trillion-dollar leverage.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 2 (01:00):
Welcome to the Daily Story Brief today we're looking at
something that honestly felt more like a Hollywood production than
a diplomatic visit.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You're talking about the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed ben Salman
at the.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
White House exactly, MBS. It was his first time back
in Washington in seven years, and the reception was just
it was off the charts, It really was.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
I mean, if you want to signal about where things
are heading, you just have to look at the sheer
theatricality of it all. This was designed to be a
monumental event.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
It wasn't just a handshake in the Oval offer.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Oh not at all. We saw a full military flyover,
there was a procession with horses on the South of Lawn,
and then this black tie dinner that was just packed
with a who's who of powerful figures.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Right. I saw the guest list. You had people like
Elon Musk and Tim Cook, the heads of America's biggest
tech companies.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And then cultural icons like Christiano Ronaldo was there. It
was a.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Spectacle, and that level of pomp is so extraordinary, especially
when you remember MBS isn't technically the head of state.
His father, King Solomon is right.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
But this reception basically solidified that the US views NBS
as the real power player, the indispensable man. This wasn't
just diplomacy as usual. It was a very high stakes negotiation.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
A negotiation to what fix a relationship that's been pretty
strained lately, to.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Consolidate it, Yeah, put it on a new foundation. The
visit formalized these massive, massive agreements across defense, technology, energy,
you name it. It was about Riad locking in its
strategic future, a.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Future that's about more than just oil exactly.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It's a future where they're trying to move away from
being solely dependent on oil exports. And the message this
sends to the rest of the region, especially to a
country like Iran, is crystal clear, which has that Saudi
Arabia is cementing its role as Washington's number one strategic
partner in the region.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Okay, let's untack this. Then we need to look at
how Saudi Arabia basically walked away with its entire strategic
wish list, and we have to talk about that one
trillion dollar pledge, which is just a staggering them.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
And the geopolitical hurdles that are still in the way,
specifically the Abraham Accords and of course, the lingering shadow
of Jamal Kushogi's murder.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Right, So let's start with the big strategic piece, the
thing that happened at that dinner.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
The major non NATO ally designation.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
President Trump made this surprise announcement, calling Saudi Arabia and
MN and A. He said it was quote very important to.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
The Saudis, and it is. This is so much more
than just a diplomatic handshake. It's a profound change. It's
a symbolic and a very practical restructuring of the entire
defense relationship.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
So what did it look like before just US selling
them weapons?
Speaker 3 (03:37):
It was transactional exactly. We sold them equipment, we shared
some intelligence, but MN and A status that puts Saudi
Arabia in a really elite group.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Who else is in that group?
Speaker 3 (03:46):
They're the twentieth country to get this status. You're talking
about core US partners like Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia.
So symbolically, this just elevates the relationship to a whole
new level. It's peer to peer.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Okay, So this is the question I think everyone going
to have right away. Does this make Saudi Arabia a
true NATO ally like Are we now legally bound to
defend them if they get attacked.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
That's the most important distinction, and the answer is a
definitive no, absolutely not. Okay. MNNA status is a legal designation,
but it explicitly does not create that automatic defense obligation
that you see in Article five the NATO treaty.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
So if Russia attacks Poland, we have to defend polk.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
We are bound by treaty to defend Poland. If you're
on attack Saudi Arabia, the US is not legally required
to send troops. Now, the strategic situation might push us
to do it anyway, but there's no legal requirement. It's
an enhancement of cooperation, not a mutual defense pact.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
So if it's not a defense pact, what are the
concrete technical benefits they get? What makes this the top
item on their wish list?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
The benefits are huge, and they're really focused on integrating
Saudi Arabia into the US defense industry in its technology pipeline.
There are about five major advantages. First, they're now eligible
to participate in joint Pentagon research and development programs. This
is a massive deal. It means Saudi defense experts get
this unprecedented access to early stage US military innovations.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
So they're not just buying stuff off the shelf anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Not at all. They're in the labs, so to speak. Second,
they get streamlined military procurement. It just cuts through a
ton of bureaucratic red.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Tape, meaning they can buy things faster.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Much faster, especially certain sensitive US defense technologies that would
take other partners years to get approved.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That seems critical for them, especially with their Vision twenty
thirty plan to modernize everything so quickly. What about say,
older US hardware.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
That's the third benefit. M and A partners get priority
access to what's called excess US military equipment. When the
US military upgrades its tanks or its planes, the old stuff,
which is still highly effective, gets sold.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Off, and Saudi Arabia now gets to be first in line.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
They move to the front of the line. It's a
way to bolster their defenses very quickly and often at
a much lower cost. Then Fourth, they can get loans
of certain US equipment for cooperative research.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
So they can try before they buy. Essentially, sort of it's.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Not permanent, but it gives them temporary access to really sophisticated,
expensive gear for training and seeing how it integrates with
their systems.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
And what about the economic angle. MVS wants to build
a real domestic defense industry. How does this help.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
That's the fifth benefit and for Vision twenty thirty, this
might be the most important one. Saudi defense companies, specifically
they're big state owned one. SAMI can now bid on
Department of Defense maintenance and repair contracts for US systems
outside the US.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
WHOA so a Saudi company could be fixing US military
gear in say europ er Asia.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Potentially. Yes, it's not just about them buying from the
US anymore. It establishes them as a recognized commercial partner
in the global defense ecosystem.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
That really feels like a direct policy tool, like the
US is trying to encourage them to look to US
for partnership, not to Russia or China.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
It absolutely is, and this all comes with a new
Strategic Defense Agreement that explicitly names the US as their
primary partner, and crucially, Saudi Arabia committed to new burden sharing.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Funds, meaning they're going to pay for some of the
costs of US forces in the region.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
They're defraying US costs. It's a two way street. They
get the prestige in the access, and the US gets
funding and a formal promise that keeps RIOD tethered to Washington.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
You know, it's a fascinating trade off. The US gives
away all this military and tech access, but we keep
the flexibility of not having a defense treaty.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
And on the other side, Saudi Arabia gets the prestige
of being in the same club as Israel in Japan,
but without having to make all the democratic or political
commitments that usually come with that.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
It's the ultimate transactional.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Alliance, it really is. It's focused purely on mutual national
security and economics, and it shows that MBS has been
very successful in navigating what Washington wants. He leveraged Saudi
wealth and its geography to get a status that, honestly,
it was almost unthinkable just a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
It signals that for Washington right now, integrating RIOD into
its defense structure is just a higher priority than pushing
for political reform.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
That's the bottom line.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Okay, So the MNNA status is the framework, but the centerpiece,
the actual hardware everyone was talking about, was the F
thirty five fighter jet deal.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Right the US formalized a commitment to sell up to
forty eight F thirty fives to the Kingdom, plus a
huge deal for nearly three hundred tanks. This is just
a monumental transfer of stealth technology.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
And he said, the F thirty five isn't just another.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Plane, It's a whole different ballgame. The F thirty five
is the most advanced, most expensive, and most secretive weapons
system the US has. It's a fifth generation jet. It's
defined by stealth, by how it fuses all its sensor data.
It's basically a flying data hug for the entire battlefield.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
And selling that to Saudi Arabia has immediate consequences.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Massive implications for the balance of power in the region,
and it runs headfirst into one of the biggest constraints
in US defense policy in.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
The Middle East, Israel's qualitative military edge, the QME.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
The QME is the absolute defining tension here. Israel is
the only country in the Middle East that operates the
F thirty five right now. They call the version the
F thirty five I a deer.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
And they see that exclusive access is essential for their security.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Absolutely, they need to know their military is always technologically
ahead of any combination of regional adversaries, and US law
actually mandates that the White House has to ensure Israel's
QME is preserved before approving any major arm sil in
the region.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
So the US has to walk this incredibly fine line,
give the Saudis what they want for modernization, but at
the same time keep Israel's technological superiority. How has that
worked in the past.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Well, historically, the US managed it by selling downgraded equipment
to Arab states. The classic example is in the nineteen
nineties when we sold fifteen as fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, but.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
They weren't the same as the Israeli ones exactly.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
The US intentionally gave the Saudi jets inferior radars and
downgraded electronic warfare systems compared to the Israeli version. That
was the political price of making the sale happen.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
But the F thirty five is different. The whole jet
is one big sensitive piece of tech. So what are
the two big worries for US and Israeli officials with
this sale.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
The first, obviously, is just upsetting Israel's q of me.
If Israel feels its main to turn is gone, that
could be destabilizing. But the second concern, and this is
often the one that really slows these deals down, is
the risk of the technology being compromised.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
You mean falling into the wrong.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Hands, specifically China. Given Saudi Arabia is growing financial and
tech ties with Beijing, there's a real fear that China
could get unauthorized access to the F thirty five.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Secrets protecting that stealth tech is everything. So if the
risks are that high, how does a deal like this
actually move forward? What are the workarounds?
Speaker 3 (10:51):
There are three main compromises, technical and political that are
being built into the deal. Okay, First is what's called
the capability differential. So yes, the Saudis get thirty five,
but Israel often gets specific rights to customize and enhance
their jets in ways no one else can.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
So it's the same plane, but it's not the same plane.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Precisely. The Israeli F thirty five I eight er has
unique US supported modifications. The sources we looked at points
specifically to things like external fuel.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Compartments, which lets them fly farther.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
Thousands of miles round trip without refueling. That's a capability
that's critical for striking deep targets like in Iran. So
even as Saudi's have the same basic airframe, Israel keeps
a unique operational edge. They can also integrate their own
indigenous systems into the jets software.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Okay, that makes sense. What's the second one.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
The second one is a technological fail safe. And this
is really unique to the F thirty five because the
plane is so heavily dependent on software and data links.
Experts point out that it's inherently quote vulnerable to a
kill switch.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
A kill switch, You mean a US could just turn
it off? Tell me about that.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Well, the F thirty five operates on this huge network
called ALAI, the Atonomic Logis Information System. The US maintains
control over the core mission software and all the updates.
So at an extreme crisis, say the plane was stolen
or the regime in Reid dramatically changed its alignment, the
US could, in theory, remotely issue a command to render
the jet inoperable.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
So you could just brick one hundred million dollars fighter jet.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Essentially, yes, you could disable its sensitive sensors or flight controls.
It's an unprecedented security safeguard that you just didn't have
with older planes.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
I have to imagine that's politically tricky for the country
buying the jet. You're spending billions on equipment the seller
can just switch off.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
It's very contentious, but it's the reality of buying this
level of US technology. It's a tradeoff RIOD has to
make if they want the F thirty five. Yeah, the
US basically keeps a veto over the jet's functionality, which
directly addresses that risk of the tech getting compromised.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Okay, so beyond the F thirty five, MBS came with
a whole sophisticated shopping list. It seems like he wants
to do more than just buy planes.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Oh. Absolutely. Focus is overwhelmingly on next generation unmanned systems,
the future of warfare. They're looking to buy hundreds of
MQ nine Reaper drones, the big proven surveillance and strike drones.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
But not just the big stuff.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
No, they're also talking to smaller, more cutting edge US
companies like a startup called Shield Ai for their AI
supported VBAT drones.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So they're buying AI integrated drone tech. They're trying to
leap frog ahead, not just buy what's available.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Now precisely, and this all ties back to their long
term industrial goal. They are seeking cooperation on and this
is their phrase, the localization of content.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
They want to build it themselves.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
They want US partners to help their state owned manufacturer
Sammy develop the infrastructure and the know how to design, manufacture,
and maintain complex weapons systems inside Saudi Arabia. The ambition
is to go from being a consumer to a serious
global defense player.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And the MN and A status is the key that
unlocks the door to that kind of UA cooperation.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
It's the only practical way for them to get there.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Okay, let's shift from military power to economic power, because
we have to talk about the money. This might be
the most headline grabbing part of the whole visit.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
The financial pivot is just staggering.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
NBS committed to dramatically raising the planned US investment from
an already huge six hundred billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
To nearly one trillion dollars in the next year. It's
a figure that's almost impossible to really comprehend.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
And the sources say this wasn't even planned. That the
number went up during the meeting itself.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
That's right. Apparently it happened in the Oval Office. NBS
essentially corrected the president's figure upwards. He said they'd be
committing to almost one trillion of investment, real investment. This
massive commitment is what underpins this entire restored relationship.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
So why the sudden massive increase. Is it just about
economics or is this the leverage he's using to get
the F thirty five's and the MNNA status.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
It's both, but you can't deny the strategic leverage. The
trillion dollar commitment is Saudi Arabia's way of saying, our
future is tied to yours, and we will pay a
premium for security. It's concrete proof to Washington that they
are prioritizing economic ties with the US over anyone else.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
And for President Trump, he can point to that and
talk about American jobs repeatedly.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
He emphasized that this translates directly to US jobs, investments
in plants, in companies, money on Wall Street, but fundamentally
jobs for Americans. It makes the partnership much more politically
sellable back home, especially with all the human rights concerns
we'll get to later.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
So where is this trillion dollars actually going? The sources
point to a massive aggressive push into one area in particular,
artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Yes, and they believe They have a unique advantage in
the race to become a global AI hub, which is
energy economics. It's highly disruptive. Advanced AI needs massive data centers,
and these data centers are incredibly power hungry. They run
twenty four to.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Seven and Saudi Arabia has a lot of energy and
it's cheap.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Vast oil and gas reserves. Let them provide cut rate
electricity prices. This drastically reduces the cost of running a
massive data center compared to doing it in the US
or Europe or China.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
So they're using their old resource oil to power the
technology of the future AI. That's a critical point. How
much of a difference does that actually make?
Speaker 3 (16:18):
It's transformative. Energy costs can be sixty even seventy percent
of a data center's total operating budget. By offering subsidized energy,
they can undercut global competitors in a huge way. It's
a brilliant move to shift their economy from pure extraction
to knowledge based services.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
So what are they doing right now to make this happen.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Well, their Public Investment Fund, the PIF, is driving all
of this. PIF owned companies like an AI firm called
Humane are planning to buy thousands of Nvidia's new Blackwell ships.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Those are the most advanced AI chips available.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
The absolute top of the line, essential for training large
AI models. On top of that, another staudy company, data volt,
is building a five billion dollars data center on the
Red dast and MBS himself said they planned to invest
fifty billion just in buying US made semiconductor chips to
meet their huge demand.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
But just like what the f thirty fives, this has
to be raising red flags in Washington about security.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
It absolutely is. The concern is the dual use nature
of this technology. US officials are very worried that China
could use these Saudi deals to gain access to cutting
edge American AI tech. The transfer of some of these
advanced in Vidio chips has already been delayed because of
these exact concerns.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
So MBS was pushing to get those unlocked during the.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
Visit, pushing hard, arguing their critical for their economic future
and not meant for anyone else.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Okay, So, parallel to AI, there was another huge tech
deal being negotiated, Civilian Nuclear Energy.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Right and they signed what they called a historic multi
billion dollar deal. It basically sets up the framework for
a long term civilian nuclear energy partnership. It names US
companies like Westinghouse and Bechtel as the preferred partners to
build the reactors.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
And it comes with non proliferation rules, very.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Strict non proliferation standards. The US goal is to help
them build a power grid, not a weapons program.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
But the big sticking point, the thing that could still
break the deal, is Saudi Arabia's insistence on being allowed
to enrich uranium on its own soil.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
This is the major hurdle. Saudi Arabia has huge domestic
reserves of raw uranium, and their energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz
bin Salman, could not have been more clear. He said,
we will enrich it, and we will sell it, and
we will do a yellow cake.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Yellow cake being the first process form of uranium.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Correct. And they're insisting on this for two reasons. Economics
they want to control the whole fuel cycle, and national pride.
They see it as a mark of sovereignty.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
This is a totally different approach from what the UAE
did with their nuclear program.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
A complete contrast. In two thousand and nine, the UAE
signed what's called a one twenty three agreement with the US.
They agreed to the gold Standard, making a legally binding
promise not to enrich uranium domestically.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Concession they made to get the deal done a.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
Huge concession, and it was critical to getting US support
for their nuclear power plant. Saudi Arabia is looking at
that and saying, we're not willing to make that same concession.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
So if the Saudis want enrichment and the US wants
non proliferation, what's the potential trade off? How do you
bridge that gap?
Speaker 3 (19:17):
The consensus among policy experts is that there's one thing
that might get Saudi Arabia to back down from enrichment,
which is a credible, formalized US nuclear umbrella, a security guarantee.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
In return for giving up enrichment, they get US nuclear
protection exactly.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
It would address their main security nuclear Iran without them
having to build their own capability.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
What would that realistically look like? A formal defense treaty
seems like it would never pass the Senate.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
It's very unlikely, so it would probably be done through
executive action. It could mean deploying US nuclear capable aircraft
to bases on Saudi soil, or it could mean committing
nuclear armed submarines to constantly patrol the Indian Ocean with
a clear public defense commit to RIODD.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
So MBS is trying to buy not just planes and ships,
but the ultimate security guarantee.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
That's precisely what this is. He's using a trillion dollars
of financial leverage to secure strategic assets that fundamentally change
his country's long term position against its main rival, Iran.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Okay, let's move from the money to the delicate geopolitical
chess board. A huge focus of the visit was the
Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Yes, President Trump has made it clear that getting Saudi
Arabia to join the Accords is essential for long term
stability in the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
The accords being the deals that normalized ties between Israel
and countries like the UAE and Bahrain right, and.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Those were foundational that Saudi Arabia is the ultimate prize.
They're the largest Arab economy, they have immense financial power,
and crucially, they are the custodian of Islam's two holiest sites.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
So if they join, it legitimizes Israel's place in the
region in a way no one.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Else can exactly. And Trump was very optimistic, publicly saying
he expects them to join very shortly.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
MBS was crystal clear about his one non negotiable condition,
and it's the thing that's blocking this whole negotiation.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It is that condition is securing a clear, guaranteed path
to an independent Palestinian state. He said it plainly. We
want to be part of the Abraham Accords, but we
want also to be sure that we secure a clear
path of a two state solution.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Okay, So think about this. The US just offered them
m n and a status of thirty five's a trillion
dollars and he still wouldn't drop this condition. That tells
you how big the gap is between Riod and Jerusalem.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
The gap is immense, and it's really defined by Israel's
current internal politics. The ruling coalition in Israel is, as
our sources put it, steadfastly opposed to a Palestinian state.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
So it's an impossible situation for Washington. They've offered MBS
almost everything he could want, but.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
The one political thing he's demanding is a complete non
starter for the current Israeli government, and.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
The current environment after the war in Gaza just makes
it even harder. The images of that conflict are still
so fresh and you.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Have ongoing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Any
move toward normalization right now without a huge, visible concession
for the Palestinians would be politically toxic for the Saudi leadership.
They can't afford the backlash, so they're stuck. They're stuck.
The economic and security benefits of the accords are just
not worth the regional instability you would create for them
(22:20):
without progress on the Palestinian issue.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
So let's shift to the other big security threat here, Iran.
Some experts were saying that given how hard normalization is,
the real focus of this meeting should have been a
joint strategy for dealing with Tehran.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
That's where the immediate high stakes threat really lies. After
the recent escalations between Israel and Iran, and with Tehran's
continued military build up and nuclear advances, the chance of
a renewed, bigger conflict is very.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
High, which is terrifying for the Gulf.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
States, especially for Saudi Arabia. They're terrified of becoming a
proxy battleground. They worry about attacks on their oil infrastructure
or even a blockade of the Straight of.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Horn moves, so NBS has a huge incentive to push
for de escalation, not confrontation.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
A massive incentive. A war in the Gulf would destroy
his vision twenty thirty plans. It would halt global commerce.
So he has every reason to use his new leverage
with Washington to try and mediate a renewal of a
nuclear deal with Iran.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
What would that look like.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
He could go to the Administration and argue for resuming negotiations,
maybe even offering a Gulf state is a neutral location
for talks. Or he could float the idea of a
regional nuclear consortium. A consortium, yeah, where regional powers, including
Saudi Arabia and the UAE all invest in and participate
in a single internationally monitored enrichment facility. It's a potential
(23:42):
off ramp that would satisfy the Saudi desire for nuclear tech,
but in a controlled, non threatening way.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
It sounds like Saudi Arabia is using its economic power
to push for regional stability because that's what its own
future depends on.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
That's the dynamic. The US is focused on what it
can get investment and sharing. MBS is leveraging those needs
to get what he needs military tech, nuclear security, and
above all stability.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
With irod Okay, we can't finish this without talking about
the ethical and political shadow that was hanging over this.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Entire visit, the elephant in the room.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
This was mbs' first time at the White House since
the twenty eighteen murder of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Koshogi,
an operation that US intelligence concluded MBS himself likely ordered.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
And the reception he got the military honors the celebrity
dinner was described by human rights advocates as an extraordinary
political feat for the Crown Prince. It was his successful
return from being an international pariah.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
And when reporters asked about it in the Oval office,
President Trump publicly dismissed the whole controversy.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
He was incredibly protective of MBS. He stood right next
to him and called Koshogi extremely controversial. He said a
lot of people didn't like that, gentleman, and then added
things happen, and.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Then he told the reporter not to embarrass our guest.
He shut it down completely.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
He did it sent a very potent message that the
topic was off limits.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
How did MBS respond when he got a chance to
address it.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
He gave a very carefully worded response. He called the
murderer painful and a huge mistake, but insisted that the
Saudi government did all the right steps to investigate and
punish those responsible. He completely insulated himself from any direct involvement.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
The reaction from critics was pretty fierce.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
It was severe. Journalism watchdogs said Trump's actions sent this
worrying global message that autocratic rulers can quote literally get
away with murder if they're a powerful enough partner. Kuchogi's
widow said she was deeply disappointed.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
It really highlights that core dilemma in US foreign policy,
the constant conflict between American values and American interests.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
That's the inescapable tension form of security. Officials will tell
you that yes, human rights are often raised privately in
these meetings at a lower level, but the public face,
the main diplomatic focus is always on national security, Iran
oil prices, military cooperation, and in this case, that nearly
trillion dollar investment.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
So for MBS, this visit was the ultimate confirmation.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
It was confirmation that wealth and strategic positioning are the
ultimate levers of power. The transactional deals clearly superseded any
domestic concerns about human rights.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
The cost of the partnership for the US was a
public willingness to look past those abuses in exchange for
security and economic alignment exactly.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
And it shows how focused the Saudis are on pure
real politic. They know they need US technology and security
to achieve Vision twenty thirty, and they were willing to
commit unprecedented funds to lock in that partnership, overwriting any
moral reservations Washington previously had.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
So let's just recap the staggering scale of what was
agreed to. Here, Saudi Arabia has cemented its military future.
They got the major non NATO ally designation, giving them
streamlined access to US tech.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
They formalized the deal for the F thirty five's advanced drones,
hundreds of tanks. It positions them as a major global
defense player.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
And then there's the money. MBS nearly doubled his investment,
pledged almost a trillion dollars into the US economy.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
With a sharp focus on the future AI advanced chips
using their cheap energy to power a new digital economy.
At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia got almost
its entire strategic wish list. It's a new transactional relationship
where their domestic controversies are just explicitly put to the side.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
So what does this all mean for you? Well, this
partnership isn't some abstract thing. It has a real impact
on global oil prices, on who controls the future of AI,
and on that very delicate security balance in the Middle East.
We are watching economic power directly purchase military and strategic guarantees.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
And that brings us back to that one final constraint,
that one thing that still stands in the way. MBS
stated clearly that he needs a guaranteed path to a
Palestinian state before he'll normalize with.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Israel, and we just established that the US offered him
almost everything else m NNA status thirty fives, a potential
nuclear umbrella, a trillion dollars in investment, the entire wish
list short of a defense treaty, and it.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
Still wasn't enough for him to drop that one condition to.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Give him The scale of everything MBS just got, and
the fact that it wasn't enough to get him to normalize,
it forces a really critical question if mn and A
status the F thirty five and a trillion dollars weren't
enough leverage to get that final political prize. What on
Earth could possibly change the status quo in the immediate future,
And that's a question we'll leave you with
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Speaker 2 (01:00):
Welcome to the Daily Story Brief today we're looking at
something that honestly felt more like a Hollywood production than
a diplomatic visit.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You're talking about the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed ben Salman
at the.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
White House exactly, MBS. It was his first time back
in Washington in seven years, and the reception was just
it was off the charts, It really was.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
I mean, if you want to signal about where things
are heading, you just have to look at the sheer
theatricality of it all. This was designed to be a
monumental event.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
It wasn't just a handshake in the Oval offer.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Oh not at all. We saw a full military flyover,
there was a procession with horses on the South of Lawn,
and then this black tie dinner that was just packed
with a who's who of powerful figures.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Right. I saw the guest list. You had people like
Elon Musk and Tim Cook, the heads of America's biggest
tech companies.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
And then cultural icons like Christiano Ronaldo was there. It
was a.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Spectacle, and that level of pomp is so extraordinary, especially
when you remember MBS isn't technically the head of state.
His father, King Solomon is right.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
But this reception basically solidified that the US views NBS
as the real power player, the indispensable man. This wasn't
just diplomacy as usual. It was a very high stakes negotiation.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
A negotiation to what fix a relationship that's been pretty
strained lately, to.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Consolidate it, Yeah, put it on a new foundation. The
visit formalized these massive, massive agreements across defense, technology, energy,
you name it. It was about Riad locking in its
strategic future, a.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Future that's about more than just oil exactly.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It's a future where they're trying to move away from
being solely dependent on oil exports. And the message this
sends to the rest of the region, especially to a
country like Iran, is crystal clear, which has that Saudi
Arabia is cementing its role as Washington's number one strategic
partner in the region.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Okay, let's untack this. Then we need to look at
how Saudi Arabia basically walked away with its entire strategic
wish list, and we have to talk about that one
trillion dollar pledge, which is just a staggering them.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
And the geopolitical hurdles that are still in the way,
specifically the Abraham Accords and of course, the lingering shadow
of Jamal Kushogi's murder.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Right, So let's start with the big strategic piece, the
thing that happened at that dinner.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
The major non NATO ally designation.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
President Trump made this surprise announcement, calling Saudi Arabia and
MN and A. He said it was quote very important to.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
The Saudis, and it is. This is so much more
than just a diplomatic handshake. It's a profound change. It's
a symbolic and a very practical restructuring of the entire
defense relationship.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
So what did it look like before just US selling
them weapons?
Speaker 3 (03:37):
It was transactional exactly. We sold them equipment, we shared
some intelligence, but MN and A status that puts Saudi
Arabia in a really elite group.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Who else is in that group?
Speaker 3 (03:46):
They're the twentieth country to get this status. You're talking
about core US partners like Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia.
So symbolically, this just elevates the relationship to a whole
new level. It's peer to peer.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Okay, So this is the question I think everyone going
to have right away. Does this make Saudi Arabia a
true NATO ally like Are we now legally bound to
defend them if they get attacked.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
That's the most important distinction, and the answer is a
definitive no, absolutely not. Okay. MNNA status is a legal designation,
but it explicitly does not create that automatic defense obligation
that you see in Article five the NATO treaty.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
So if Russia attacks Poland, we have to defend polk.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
We are bound by treaty to defend Poland. If you're
on attack Saudi Arabia, the US is not legally required
to send troops. Now, the strategic situation might push us
to do it anyway, but there's no legal requirement. It's
an enhancement of cooperation, not a mutual defense pact.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
So if it's not a defense pact, what are the
concrete technical benefits they get? What makes this the top
item on their wish list?
Speaker 3 (04:48):
The benefits are huge, and they're really focused on integrating
Saudi Arabia into the US defense industry in its technology pipeline.
There are about five major advantages. First, they're now eligible
to participate in joint Pentagon research and development programs. This
is a massive deal. It means Saudi defense experts get
this unprecedented access to early stage US military innovations.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
So they're not just buying stuff off the shelf anymore.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Not at all. They're in the labs, so to speak. Second,
they get streamlined military procurement. It just cuts through a
ton of bureaucratic red.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Tape, meaning they can buy things faster.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Much faster, especially certain sensitive US defense technologies that would
take other partners years to get approved.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
That seems critical for them, especially with their Vision twenty
thirty plan to modernize everything so quickly. What about say,
older US hardware.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
That's the third benefit. M and A partners get priority
access to what's called excess US military equipment. When the
US military upgrades its tanks or its planes, the old stuff,
which is still highly effective, gets sold.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Off, and Saudi Arabia now gets to be first in line.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
They move to the front of the line. It's a
way to bolster their defenses very quickly and often at
a much lower cost. Then Fourth, they can get loans
of certain US equipment for cooperative research.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
So they can try before they buy. Essentially, sort of it's.
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Not permanent, but it gives them temporary access to really sophisticated,
expensive gear for training and seeing how it integrates with
their systems.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
And what about the economic angle. MVS wants to build
a real domestic defense industry. How does this help.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
That's the fifth benefit and for Vision twenty thirty, this
might be the most important one. Saudi defense companies, specifically
they're big state owned one. SAMI can now bid on
Department of Defense maintenance and repair contracts for US systems
outside the US.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
WHOA so a Saudi company could be fixing US military
gear in say europ er Asia.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Potentially. Yes, it's not just about them buying from the
US anymore. It establishes them as a recognized commercial partner
in the global defense ecosystem.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
That really feels like a direct policy tool, like the
US is trying to encourage them to look to US
for partnership, not to Russia or China.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
It absolutely is, and this all comes with a new
Strategic Defense Agreement that explicitly names the US as their
primary partner, and crucially, Saudi Arabia committed to new burden sharing.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Funds, meaning they're going to pay for some of the
costs of US forces in the region.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
They're defraying US costs. It's a two way street. They
get the prestige in the access, and the US gets
funding and a formal promise that keeps RIOD tethered to Washington.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
You know, it's a fascinating trade off. The US gives
away all this military and tech access, but we keep
the flexibility of not having a defense treaty.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
And on the other side, Saudi Arabia gets the prestige
of being in the same club as Israel in Japan,
but without having to make all the democratic or political
commitments that usually come with that.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
It's the ultimate transactional.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Alliance, it really is. It's focused purely on mutual national
security and economics, and it shows that MBS has been
very successful in navigating what Washington wants. He leveraged Saudi
wealth and its geography to get a status that, honestly,
it was almost unthinkable just a few years ago.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
It signals that for Washington right now, integrating RIOD into
its defense structure is just a higher priority than pushing
for political reform.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
That's the bottom line.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Okay, So the MNNA status is the framework, but the centerpiece,
the actual hardware everyone was talking about, was the F
thirty five fighter jet deal.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Right the US formalized a commitment to sell up to
forty eight F thirty fives to the Kingdom, plus a
huge deal for nearly three hundred tanks. This is just
a monumental transfer of stealth technology.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
And he said, the F thirty five isn't just another.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Plane, It's a whole different ballgame. The F thirty five
is the most advanced, most expensive, and most secretive weapons
system the US has. It's a fifth generation jet. It's
defined by stealth, by how it fuses all its sensor data.
It's basically a flying data hug for the entire battlefield.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
And selling that to Saudi Arabia has immediate consequences.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Massive implications for the balance of power in the region,
and it runs headfirst into one of the biggest constraints
in US defense policy in.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
The Middle East, Israel's qualitative military edge, the QME.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
The QME is the absolute defining tension here. Israel is
the only country in the Middle East that operates the
F thirty five right now. They call the version the
F thirty five I a deer.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
And they see that exclusive access is essential for their security.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
Absolutely, they need to know their military is always technologically
ahead of any combination of regional adversaries, and US law
actually mandates that the White House has to ensure Israel's
QME is preserved before approving any major arm sil in
the region.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
So the US has to walk this incredibly fine line,
give the Saudis what they want for modernization, but at
the same time keep Israel's technological superiority. How has that
worked in the past.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Well, historically, the US managed it by selling downgraded equipment
to Arab states. The classic example is in the nineteen
nineties when we sold fifteen as fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, but.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
They weren't the same as the Israeli ones exactly.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
The US intentionally gave the Saudi jets inferior radars and
downgraded electronic warfare systems compared to the Israeli version. That
was the political price of making the sale happen.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
But the F thirty five is different. The whole jet
is one big sensitive piece of tech. So what are
the two big worries for US and Israeli officials with
this sale.
Speaker 3 (10:18):
The first, obviously, is just upsetting Israel's q of me.
If Israel feels its main to turn is gone, that
could be destabilizing. But the second concern, and this is
often the one that really slows these deals down, is
the risk of the technology being compromised.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
You mean falling into the wrong.
Speaker 3 (10:34):
Hands, specifically China. Given Saudi Arabia is growing financial and
tech ties with Beijing, there's a real fear that China
could get unauthorized access to the F thirty five.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Secrets protecting that stealth tech is everything. So if the
risks are that high, how does a deal like this
actually move forward? What are the workarounds?
Speaker 3 (10:51):
There are three main compromises, technical and political that are
being built into the deal. Okay, First is what's called
the capability differential. So yes, the Saudis get thirty five,
but Israel often gets specific rights to customize and enhance
their jets in ways no one else can.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
So it's the same plane, but it's not the same plane.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Precisely. The Israeli F thirty five I eight er has
unique US supported modifications. The sources we looked at points
specifically to things like external fuel.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Compartments, which lets them fly farther.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
Thousands of miles round trip without refueling. That's a capability
that's critical for striking deep targets like in Iran. So
even as Saudi's have the same basic airframe, Israel keeps
a unique operational edge. They can also integrate their own
indigenous systems into the jets software.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Okay, that makes sense. What's the second one.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
The second one is a technological fail safe. And this
is really unique to the F thirty five because the
plane is so heavily dependent on software and data links.
Experts point out that it's inherently quote vulnerable to a
kill switch.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
A kill switch, You mean a US could just turn
it off? Tell me about that.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Well, the F thirty five operates on this huge network
called ALAI, the Atonomic Logis Information System. The US maintains
control over the core mission software and all the updates.
So at an extreme crisis, say the plane was stolen
or the regime in Reid dramatically changed its alignment, the
US could, in theory, remotely issue a command to render
the jet inoperable.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
So you could just brick one hundred million dollars fighter jet.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Essentially, yes, you could disable its sensitive sensors or flight controls.
It's an unprecedented security safeguard that you just didn't have
with older planes.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
I have to imagine that's politically tricky for the country
buying the jet. You're spending billions on equipment the seller
can just switch off.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
It's very contentious, but it's the reality of buying this
level of US technology. It's a tradeoff RIOD has to
make if they want the F thirty five. Yeah, the
US basically keeps a veto over the jet's functionality, which
directly addresses that risk of the tech getting compromised.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Okay, so beyond the F thirty five, MBS came with
a whole sophisticated shopping list. It seems like he wants
to do more than just buy planes.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Oh. Absolutely. Focus is overwhelmingly on next generation unmanned systems,
the future of warfare. They're looking to buy hundreds of
MQ nine Reaper drones, the big proven surveillance and strike drones.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
But not just the big stuff.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
No, they're also talking to smaller, more cutting edge US
companies like a startup called Shield Ai for their AI
supported VBAT drones.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So they're buying AI integrated drone tech. They're trying to
leap frog ahead, not just buy what's available.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Now precisely, and this all ties back to their long
term industrial goal. They are seeking cooperation on and this
is their phrase, the localization of content.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
They want to build it themselves.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
They want US partners to help their state owned manufacturer
Sammy develop the infrastructure and the know how to design, manufacture,
and maintain complex weapons systems inside Saudi Arabia. The ambition
is to go from being a consumer to a serious
global defense player.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
And the MN and A status is the key that
unlocks the door to that kind of UA cooperation.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
It's the only practical way for them to get there.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Okay, let's shift from military power to economic power, because
we have to talk about the money. This might be
the most headline grabbing part of the whole visit.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
The financial pivot is just staggering.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
NBS committed to dramatically raising the planned US investment from
an already huge six hundred billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
To nearly one trillion dollars in the next year. It's
a figure that's almost impossible to really comprehend.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
And the sources say this wasn't even planned. That the
number went up during the meeting itself.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
That's right. Apparently it happened in the Oval Office. NBS
essentially corrected the president's figure upwards. He said they'd be
committing to almost one trillion of investment, real investment. This
massive commitment is what underpins this entire restored relationship.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
So why the sudden massive increase. Is it just about
economics or is this the leverage he's using to get
the F thirty five's and the MNNA status.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
It's both, but you can't deny the strategic leverage. The
trillion dollar commitment is Saudi Arabia's way of saying, our
future is tied to yours, and we will pay a
premium for security. It's concrete proof to Washington that they
are prioritizing economic ties with the US over anyone else.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
And for President Trump, he can point to that and
talk about American jobs repeatedly.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
He emphasized that this translates directly to US jobs, investments
in plants, in companies, money on Wall Street, but fundamentally
jobs for Americans. It makes the partnership much more politically
sellable back home, especially with all the human rights concerns
we'll get to later.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
So where is this trillion dollars actually going? The sources
point to a massive aggressive push into one area in particular,
artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Yes, and they believe They have a unique advantage in
the race to become a global AI hub, which is
energy economics. It's highly disruptive. Advanced AI needs massive data centers,
and these data centers are incredibly power hungry. They run
twenty four to.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Seven and Saudi Arabia has a lot of energy and
it's cheap.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
Vast oil and gas reserves. Let them provide cut rate
electricity prices. This drastically reduces the cost of running a
massive data center compared to doing it in the US
or Europe or China.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
So they're using their old resource oil to power the
technology of the future AI. That's a critical point. How
much of a difference does that actually make?
Speaker 3 (16:18):
It's transformative. Energy costs can be sixty even seventy percent
of a data center's total operating budget. By offering subsidized energy,
they can undercut global competitors in a huge way. It's
a brilliant move to shift their economy from pure extraction
to knowledge based services.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
So what are they doing right now to make this happen.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Well, their Public Investment Fund, the PIF, is driving all
of this. PIF owned companies like an AI firm called
Humane are planning to buy thousands of Nvidia's new Blackwell ships.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Those are the most advanced AI chips available.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
The absolute top of the line, essential for training large
AI models. On top of that, another staudy company, data volt,
is building a five billion dollars data center on the
Red dast and MBS himself said they planned to invest
fifty billion just in buying US made semiconductor chips to
meet their huge demand.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
But just like what the f thirty fives, this has
to be raising red flags in Washington about security.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
It absolutely is. The concern is the dual use nature
of this technology. US officials are very worried that China
could use these Saudi deals to gain access to cutting
edge American AI tech. The transfer of some of these
advanced in Vidio chips has already been delayed because of
these exact concerns.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
So MBS was pushing to get those unlocked during the.
Speaker 3 (17:32):
Visit, pushing hard, arguing their critical for their economic future
and not meant for anyone else.
Speaker 2 (17:37):
Okay, So, parallel to AI, there was another huge tech
deal being negotiated, Civilian Nuclear Energy.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Right and they signed what they called a historic multi
billion dollar deal. It basically sets up the framework for
a long term civilian nuclear energy partnership. It names US
companies like Westinghouse and Bechtel as the preferred partners to
build the reactors.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
And it comes with non proliferation rules, very.
Speaker 3 (18:02):
Strict non proliferation standards. The US goal is to help
them build a power grid, not a weapons program.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
But the big sticking point, the thing that could still
break the deal, is Saudi Arabia's insistence on being allowed
to enrich uranium on its own soil.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
This is the major hurdle. Saudi Arabia has huge domestic
reserves of raw uranium, and their energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz
bin Salman, could not have been more clear. He said,
we will enrich it, and we will sell it, and
we will do a yellow cake.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
Yellow cake being the first process form of uranium.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Correct. And they're insisting on this for two reasons. Economics
they want to control the whole fuel cycle, and national pride.
They see it as a mark of sovereignty.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
This is a totally different approach from what the UAE
did with their nuclear program.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
A complete contrast. In two thousand and nine, the UAE
signed what's called a one twenty three agreement with the US.
They agreed to the gold Standard, making a legally binding
promise not to enrich uranium domestically.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Concession they made to get the deal done a.
Speaker 3 (19:01):
Huge concession, and it was critical to getting US support
for their nuclear power plant. Saudi Arabia is looking at
that and saying, we're not willing to make that same concession.
Speaker 2 (19:10):
So if the Saudis want enrichment and the US wants
non proliferation, what's the potential trade off? How do you
bridge that gap?
Speaker 3 (19:17):
The consensus among policy experts is that there's one thing
that might get Saudi Arabia to back down from enrichment,
which is a credible, formalized US nuclear umbrella, a security guarantee.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
In return for giving up enrichment, they get US nuclear
protection exactly.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
It would address their main security nuclear Iran without them
having to build their own capability.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
What would that realistically look like? A formal defense treaty
seems like it would never pass the Senate.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
It's very unlikely, so it would probably be done through
executive action. It could mean deploying US nuclear capable aircraft
to bases on Saudi soil, or it could mean committing
nuclear armed submarines to constantly patrol the Indian Ocean with
a clear public defense commit to RIODD.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
So MBS is trying to buy not just planes and ships,
but the ultimate security guarantee.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
That's precisely what this is. He's using a trillion dollars
of financial leverage to secure strategic assets that fundamentally change
his country's long term position against its main rival, Iran.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Okay, let's move from the money to the delicate geopolitical
chess board. A huge focus of the visit was the
Abraham Accords.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Yes, President Trump has made it clear that getting Saudi
Arabia to join the Accords is essential for long term
stability in the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
The accords being the deals that normalized ties between Israel
and countries like the UAE and Bahrain right, and.
Speaker 3 (20:38):
Those were foundational that Saudi Arabia is the ultimate prize.
They're the largest Arab economy, they have immense financial power,
and crucially, they are the custodian of Islam's two holiest sites.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
So if they join, it legitimizes Israel's place in the
region in a way no one.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Else can exactly. And Trump was very optimistic, publicly saying
he expects them to join very shortly.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
MBS was crystal clear about his one non negotiable condition,
and it's the thing that's blocking this whole negotiation.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It is that condition is securing a clear, guaranteed path
to an independent Palestinian state. He said it plainly. We
want to be part of the Abraham Accords, but we
want also to be sure that we secure a clear
path of a two state solution.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Okay, So think about this. The US just offered them
m n and a status of thirty five's a trillion
dollars and he still wouldn't drop this condition. That tells
you how big the gap is between Riod and Jerusalem.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
The gap is immense, and it's really defined by Israel's
current internal politics. The ruling coalition in Israel is, as
our sources put it, steadfastly opposed to a Palestinian state.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
So it's an impossible situation for Washington. They've offered MBS
almost everything he could want, but.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
The one political thing he's demanding is a complete non
starter for the current Israeli government, and.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
The current environment after the war in Gaza just makes
it even harder. The images of that conflict are still
so fresh and you.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
Have ongoing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Any
move toward normalization right now without a huge, visible concession
for the Palestinians would be politically toxic for the Saudi leadership.
They can't afford the backlash, so they're stuck. They're stuck.
The economic and security benefits of the accords are just
not worth the regional instability you would create for them
(22:20):
without progress on the Palestinian issue.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
So let's shift to the other big security threat here, Iran.
Some experts were saying that given how hard normalization is,
the real focus of this meeting should have been a
joint strategy for dealing with Tehran.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
That's where the immediate high stakes threat really lies. After
the recent escalations between Israel and Iran, and with Tehran's
continued military build up and nuclear advances, the chance of
a renewed, bigger conflict is very.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
High, which is terrifying for the Gulf.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
States, especially for Saudi Arabia. They're terrified of becoming a
proxy battleground. They worry about attacks on their oil infrastructure
or even a blockade of the Straight of.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Horn moves, so NBS has a huge incentive to push
for de escalation, not confrontation.
Speaker 3 (23:05):
A massive incentive. A war in the Gulf would destroy
his vision twenty thirty plans. It would halt global commerce.
So he has every reason to use his new leverage
with Washington to try and mediate a renewal of a
nuclear deal with Iran.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
What would that look like.
Speaker 3 (23:21):
He could go to the Administration and argue for resuming negotiations,
maybe even offering a Gulf state is a neutral location
for talks. Or he could float the idea of a
regional nuclear consortium. A consortium, yeah, where regional powers, including
Saudi Arabia and the UAE all invest in and participate
in a single internationally monitored enrichment facility. It's a potential
(23:42):
off ramp that would satisfy the Saudi desire for nuclear tech,
but in a controlled, non threatening way.
Speaker 2 (23:48):
It sounds like Saudi Arabia is using its economic power
to push for regional stability because that's what its own
future depends on.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
That's the dynamic. The US is focused on what it
can get investment and sharing. MBS is leveraging those needs
to get what he needs military tech, nuclear security, and
above all stability.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
With irod Okay, we can't finish this without talking about
the ethical and political shadow that was hanging over this.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Entire visit, the elephant in the room.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
This was mbs' first time at the White House since
the twenty eighteen murder of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Koshogi,
an operation that US intelligence concluded MBS himself likely ordered.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
And the reception he got the military honors the celebrity
dinner was described by human rights advocates as an extraordinary
political feat for the Crown Prince. It was his successful
return from being an international pariah.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
And when reporters asked about it in the Oval office,
President Trump publicly dismissed the whole controversy.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
He was incredibly protective of MBS. He stood right next
to him and called Koshogi extremely controversial. He said a
lot of people didn't like that, gentleman, and then added
things happen, and.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Then he told the reporter not to embarrass our guest.
He shut it down completely.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
He did it sent a very potent message that the
topic was off limits.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
How did MBS respond when he got a chance to
address it.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
He gave a very carefully worded response. He called the
murderer painful and a huge mistake, but insisted that the
Saudi government did all the right steps to investigate and
punish those responsible. He completely insulated himself from any direct involvement.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
The reaction from critics was pretty fierce.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
It was severe. Journalism watchdogs said Trump's actions sent this
worrying global message that autocratic rulers can quote literally get
away with murder if they're a powerful enough partner. Kuchogi's
widow said she was deeply disappointed.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
It really highlights that core dilemma in US foreign policy,
the constant conflict between American values and American interests.
Speaker 3 (25:47):
That's the inescapable tension form of security. Officials will tell
you that yes, human rights are often raised privately in
these meetings at a lower level, but the public face,
the main diplomatic focus is always on national security, Iran
oil prices, military cooperation, and in this case, that nearly
trillion dollar investment.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
So for MBS, this visit was the ultimate confirmation.
Speaker 3 (26:07):
It was confirmation that wealth and strategic positioning are the
ultimate levers of power. The transactional deals clearly superseded any
domestic concerns about human rights.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
The cost of the partnership for the US was a
public willingness to look past those abuses in exchange for
security and economic alignment exactly.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
And it shows how focused the Saudis are on pure
real politic. They know they need US technology and security
to achieve Vision twenty thirty, and they were willing to
commit unprecedented funds to lock in that partnership, overwriting any
moral reservations Washington previously had.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
So let's just recap the staggering scale of what was
agreed to. Here, Saudi Arabia has cemented its military future.
They got the major non NATO ally designation, giving them
streamlined access to US tech.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
They formalized the deal for the F thirty five's advanced drones,
hundreds of tanks. It positions them as a major global
defense player.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
And then there's the money. MBS nearly doubled his investment,
pledged almost a trillion dollars into the US economy.
Speaker 3 (27:07):
With a sharp focus on the future AI advanced chips
using their cheap energy to power a new digital economy.
At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia got almost
its entire strategic wish list. It's a new transactional relationship
where their domestic controversies are just explicitly put to the side.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
So what does this all mean for you? Well, this
partnership isn't some abstract thing. It has a real impact
on global oil prices, on who controls the future of AI,
and on that very delicate security balance in the Middle East.
We are watching economic power directly purchase military and strategic guarantees.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
And that brings us back to that one final constraint,
that one thing that still stands in the way. MBS
stated clearly that he needs a guaranteed path to a
Palestinian state before he'll normalize with.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
Israel, and we just established that the US offered him
almost everything else m NNA status thirty fives, a potential
nuclear umbrella, a trillion dollars in investment, the entire wish
list short of a defense treaty, and it.
Speaker 3 (28:06):
Still wasn't enough for him to drop that one condition to.
Speaker 2 (28:09):
Give him The scale of everything MBS just got, and
the fact that it wasn't enough to get him to normalize,
it forces a really critical question if mn and A
status the F thirty five and a trillion dollars weren't
enough leverage to get that final political prize. What on
Earth could possibly change the status quo in the immediate future,
And that's a question we'll leave you with
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