David's Deep Dives: Phenology, Changing Natural Cycles, & Weather

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Hello and welcome to the Everything Weather podcast
where we talk with people aboutthe weather world, explore and
discuss everything weather andhave a little fun along the way.
I'm your host, kyle David, andthis episode is another edition
of David's Deep Dives, where wedive deep together into
different weather-related topics.
In this edition of David's DeepDives, we're diving into the

(00:30):
natural world of phenology andhow the weather and climate
impact it.
Now, for those wondering whatphenology is, I won't give too
much away, but basicallyphenology is the study of all of
the natural cycles, so thinkmigration of birds, hibernation
of animals when winter comesaround, and probably the most

(00:51):
impactful one is pollen.
Now, as somebody who hatespollen, I hate it, but it was a
very interesting conversation,learning more about the world of
phenology and how the weatherand climate impact it, because
they do very much impact howthese natural cycles occur.
And to help us explore theseconnections between phenology,

(01:13):
weather and climate, and to helpus explore the connections
between phenology, weather andclimate, I talked with Dr Teresa
Crimmins, the director of theUSA National Phenology Network
and an associate professor inthe School of Natural Resources
and the Environment at theUniversity of Utah, and she's
also authored a book onphenology and the impact of

(01:35):
climate change in the naturalworld, basically what we're
going to be talking about in thepodcast.
The book Phenology is out now.
We'll talk about that a littlebit more as we get into the deep
dive, and real quick.
Before we get into the deep dive, we'll have a fun section with
Dr Crimmins at the beginning ofthe deep dive and for you, the
listener, we have two funsections again for you to play

(01:55):
along with and have some funwhile you're listening to this
episode.
One will come right after theOn this Day in Weather History
segment, which will be on theMarch 31st April 1st tornado
outbreak in 2023, which was aprolific outbreak and we'll dive
quickly into that and howimpactful that was.
And the other fun segment, theweather or not trivia.

(02:16):
That'll come after some quickclosing thoughts.
Now, with all that said, let'sget into the deep dive.
So today we're excited to haveDr Teresa Crimmins.
Dr Crimmins is the director forthe USA National Phenology
Network and an associateprofessor in the School of

(02:39):
Natural Resources and theEnvironment at the University of
Arizona.
She's also authored a book onphenology and the impact of
climate change on the naturalworld.
Her book, phenology, is now outand available for purchase
wherever you get your books from.
Hi there, dr Crimmins, andwelcome to the podcast.

Speaker 2 (02:57):
Hi, kyle, thank you so much for having me.
I'm really excited to be here.

Speaker 1 (03:01):
Absolutely.
I'm looking forward to divingdeep into the world of phonology
and how that connects to theweather and climate.
But before we get into our deepdive, I've got one fun game for
you.
So we've got lightning round.
We're going to do a couple ofquick questions related to
phonology and things that arenot related to phonology, and
from there we'll get into ourdeep dive.
So, with that said, are youready?

Speaker 2 (03:22):
I'm super ready.
Let's do this.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
All right, so we'll quick tack these questions.
So first up, what is your go-tomidnight snack?

Speaker 2 (03:31):
You know I really love those flavored Snyder's
pretzels.
There's some that I think arelike dill pickle flavor, but
there's also what are the otherones?
Like oh, buffalo, chickenflavor pretzels.
The other ones like oh, buffalochicken flavor pretzels.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
Those are.
I love those.
They're really good.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
I know there's the honey mustard one, but I've not
seen the mustard, but all theother ones that are like, yeah,
maybe they're good definitely agood snack.
Pretzels are all around auniversal snack, next up
favorite insect oh, I think, Ithink I'm gonna have to go with
butterflies, but if you bondedout just a little bit, scorpions

(04:12):
are are really cool.
I actually spend a lot of timewith my 16 year old son trolling
the alleyways in ourneighborhood with black lights
looking for scorpions, and wefound five in our front yard
just last night.
So they aren't typically aninsect, but they are awfully fun
to look at.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
In your front yard.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (04:35):
I'm definitely not going out there, then I don't
mess with scorpions.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
They're little.
None of us have ever gottenstung before.
Apparently they're pretty nastybecause they're the little guys
, and what I heard once was I'mturning this now into no longer
a lightning round the size ofthe pinchers relative to their
body size can give you anestimate, kind of an indication,
of how bad the sting will be,because it's basically how much

(05:00):
of a defense can the pinchersprovide for them?
And the bark scorpions, whichare really pretty small they're
only like an inch or two longtotal have pretty small pinchers
relative to the length of theirbody, and so apparently their
sting is actually pretty bad.
And we've had them in our houseseveral times, but, knock on

(05:21):
wood, so far nobody's actuallyexperienced it directly.

Speaker 1 (05:25):
Okay, so on that note , then there's a quote from I
think the fourth Indiana Jonesmovie, where Indiana Jones says
comes to scorpions, the biggerthe better.
Is that true, or is there someit?

Speaker 2 (05:37):
really has to do with the pincher size.
So the ones with the really bigpinchers are probably far less
problematic if that rule ofthumb actually applies, because
you know they would pinch youand that would be their primary
form of defense.
And maybe the pinch is notlovely, but I think it'd be
better than a sting.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
All right.
So we're proving some Hollywoodquotes and topics to be true on
the podcast as well.
In the phonology world, allright.
Next up, do you prefer thesound of waves or a crackling
fireplace?

Speaker 2 (06:09):
Ooh, oh, I love them both, but I think I'd have to go
with waves.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
Okay, next up favorite flower.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
Oh my gosh, that's a dangerous one to ask me, because
I could talk for a wholepodcast just on that.
But my snap answer is milkweed.
Because if you look carefullyat the individual flowers of
milkweed, they're so intricateand complex and I don't have the
terminology on the tip of mytongue to describe them.

(06:36):
But yeah, and podcasts arenotoriously not very visual, so
I encourage listeners to Googlewhat milkweed flowers look like,
because they really arespectacular.

Speaker 1 (06:48):
And we may have a little thing at the show notes
for people to follow along asthey listen to the podcast
pictures of all the flowers andall the different phenology
things that we mentioned on thepodcast.
So, milkweed, that's a that'san interesting answer.
All right, next up.
What's one thing you couldnever give up?

Speaker 2 (07:06):
Being outside, having access to the outdoors.
Honestly, I'm actually thinkingdeeply about this as I'm trying
to write my next book, and ithas a lot to do with the
benefits that we receive byspending time outside, and
there's been an awful lot ofresearch on this topic, about
not only physical benefits thatwe appreciate, like lowered

(07:29):
heart rate and stress levels,but how our brainwaves are
affected and I should edit itbecause I mean not just being
outside, but specifically beingoutside in green spaces, among
other living things, and itreally has tremendously
beneficial impact to us for ourabilities to stay healthy and to

(07:51):
sleep well, but also to thinkand be creative.
And so, yeah, it would be very,very difficult to be separated
from the outdoors for any reallength of time, and my heart
hurts for people that are likethose that are imprisoned or
just live in areas where theydon't have ready access to green
things.

Speaker 1 (08:11):
So for those that are listening, that may be a little
bit younger and wondering whytheir parents are always telling
them go outside and touch grass.
There's health benefits to it.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Oh, yes, touch grass is it really is like it should
be right up there with you knowwell, there's gonna be a lot of
resistance to eating five fruitsand vegetables a day too, but
you know, if it really is, thereare a lot of.
It's a formal thing now for alot of doctors to prescribe
formally time outside in nature,as you know, a prescription to

(08:41):
help with anxiety and depressionand so many other things.
It really is.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
Touching grass is important.
Absolutely is All right.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
Back to the lightning round.
Next one up is favorite tree.
Oh my gosh, that's another onethat I could talk about forever.
I know that's hard, but I thinkthat it would be.
Oh, I think it would be sweetgum.
There's a tree called sweet gum,and I choose that for multiple
reasons.
One is that the leaves arethese really awesome five
pointed star I think they'refive pointed star, maybe six,
maybe there's some variabilityin that, but they're really cool

(09:15):
star shaped leaves.
And it's a deciduous tree, sowhen it turns color in the
autumn, a lot of times thedifferent leaves will turn color
at different rates, and sowhere?
A lot, whereas a lot of timesthe different leaves will turn
color at different rates, and so, whereas a lot of trees will
turn color all at once, or likethe whole half of a tree will be
, you know, red or orange, youcan have this very mottled tree
where it's orange, yellow andgreen all mixed together and

(09:38):
it's such a beautiful sight,honestly.
And then the Latin name for itis Liquidambar styrooflua, and I
just love how that rolls offthe tongue.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
What was the Latin name for it again?

Speaker 2 (09:51):
It's liquidambar styracoflua.

Speaker 1 (09:54):
What does that mean in Latin?
I'm just curious.

Speaker 2 (09:57):
The Latin name liquidambar styracoflua,
translates to liquid amberflowing with storax, so it has
to do with the fluid moving upand down within the, basically
the straws that are inside thetrunk of the tree.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, I think I'll have to do that for our
listeners.
That's an interesting name, allright, next one up on the
lightning round.
Do you have a favorite bookgenre?

Speaker 2 (10:21):
You know, yes, I think that it would be science
nonfiction.
That's kind of a boring answer,honestly, but I like learning
new things, so the kind ofwriting that I'm doing is the
kind of writing that I like toread.
I like to hear where I'mlearning factual information,
but it's being delivered by aknowledgeable individual who's

(10:43):
also interleaving their ownexperiences and insights.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
So, yeah, so real quick, what's your favorite
science nonfiction book thatyou've read?

Speaker 2 (10:53):
I think that the one that I would name off the top of
my head, that I just finishedreading, is called the Nature
Fix, and so it's very related towhat we were just talking about
, because it gives you knowreally in-depth dive into how
being outside is good for us.
I could name a whole lot more,but that's what comes to mind
right away.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
We'll have to explore that book a little bit more in
the future, or at least just onmy own as well.
All right, next one.
This one might be a littlechallenging for you Fields of
flowers or forests of trees,which would you rather have in
your backyard.

Speaker 2 (11:27):
I have to go with the forest of trees.
I think I miss trees.
So I grew up in Michigan andI've lived in Arizona for almost
25 years now and I love theSonoran Desert.
There's so much special, somuch that's special about and
unique about this place.
But anytime that we travel backto the Midwest or really
anywhere where there's trees, myeyes are just flooded with how

(11:50):
green it is and it's likereleases all this dopamine.
It's just such a happyexperience to reconnect with
trees and I really think that'sso true for people wherever they
grew up.
You know, if you move away,whenever you go back, it feels
like home and there's an awfullot of you know experiences that

(12:11):
are more basic, that aretriggered, and so yeah, it's.
And where I grew up there, itwas kind of a mix of coniferous
and deciduous trees, so all ofthem make me happy.

Speaker 1 (12:23):
So that kind of answers what kind of trees you
like?
The coniferous, and what wasthe other one?

Speaker 2 (12:27):
Deciduous, the ones where the leaves change color
and fall off.

Speaker 1 (12:31):
Okay.
I like them, all I like themall All right, so next lightning
round question.
Second to last one what's yourfavorite holiday tradition?

Speaker 2 (12:41):
Well, the thing that comes to mind because it stands
out I think it's rather unique,actually, compared to other
people I've spoken with is myfamily, specifically my mom, but
I think she inherited this fromeven her parents.
We make fruitcakes everyChristmas and not very many

(13:04):
people like fruitcake, but I do.
When you make it homemade Ithink it tastes really good, and
we make it with the candiedfruits.
I don't know if you've everseen them at the grocery store,
but they'll have them around theholiday times and they look so
toxic.
Honestly, they don't looknatural at all.
They're mostly cherries andorange peel and pineapple that

(13:24):
has been I don't know, liketotally infused with sugar water
and then completely non-normallooking dyes, so they're bright
red and bright green and brightyellow, and then you put that
into a really sugary, eggy sweetdough and then bake it.
And then we always do this agood month in advance of
Christmas, because then thefinal step is to soak

(13:47):
cheesecloth in peach brandy andthen you wrap them in them in
the cheesecloth, and then youwrap them in foil, this sticky
block, you stick it in thepantry and let it just basically
marinate or ferment, and thenit's really good, I think or

(14:08):
ferment, and then it's reallygood.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
I think that sounds delectable and I'm not seeing a
problem with these lightninground questions designed around
food, because then we get intofood and, oh, my mouth is
watering, as you described that.

Speaker 2 (14:17):
That's a good question.

Speaker 1 (14:18):
All right, got one more for you.
This one's a weather relatedone.
What is your ideal weather foryour perfect day?

Speaker 2 (14:26):
Oh, you know, if you would have asked me this 25
years ago, when I lived inMichigan, I would have described
for you the perfect sunny, youknow, 70 degree day, maybe with
like a light breeze and puffyclouds.
But now that I live in Arizonaand it is sunny all the time,
which I am not going to complainabout I really like seeing the
sun as much as I do.

(14:47):
It's the inverse.
Anything with storms is sospecial.
Even just cloud cover is sospecial for us when we're lucky
in the summer season, July andAugust and sometimes September,
where it'll usually start outdry and clear and hot, really

(15:10):
hot, and then the clouds startbuilding and we get these really
big puffy clouds and then itcan change within an hour it can
totally transition to reallyintense storms.
It's inches of rain will fallwithin, you know, an hour or
less.
And the roads are.

(15:31):
Here, the roads.
We don't have a lot of stormdrains, mainly because it
doesn't rain that much, and soinstead of the roads being
crowned to have the water go offof them, they're dished and for
the large, and in a lot ofplaces, the roads are the
conveyance for the monsoon rain,and so you can get stuck in
traffic because there can bestanding waves of like three

(15:53):
feet in the middle ofintersections and just crazy
lightning and winds and it'susually really intense and
fairly brief, but reallyexciting, Really really special,
honestly.
So I like that, I'll take amonsoon storm any day, as long
as I'm safe, as long aseverybody is safe.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
I think that's everything.
It's one thing everybody looksfor when it comes to severe
weather, especially monsoonstorms.
Appreciate it from a safedistance and a safe spot, and
you may have a little bit of aweather nerd in you.
Yet how do you describe thosemonsoon storms?

Speaker 2 (16:29):
I don't know if I let on.
I'm married to somebody who hasdegrees in meteorology and
climatology, so I have a lot ofdirect intersection with it.

Speaker 1 (16:38):
I love that answer.
All right, that wraps up ourlightning round.
So let's get into the deep dive.
But first I gotta ask you youin a way, I kind of ask
everybody on the podcast whatgot them interested in the
weather.
I'd say it is the weather story, but for this it's the
phenology stories for you.
So, dr Kermans, what got youinterested in everything
phenology?

Speaker 2 (16:59):
You know it's kind of funny.
I went to graduate schoolmultiple times, mainly in
ecology, and I am pretty certainI graduated without knowing
what the word phenology actuallymeant.
I didn't really intersect withit much at all.
My area of study was primarilyinvasive species and restoration
, so trying to take degradedareas and improve them

(17:23):
ecologically, and so I kind ofbumped into phenology.
It bumped into me honestly.
The short version is rightaround the end of the 1990s and
the early 2000s, right aboutwhen Al Gore's movie was coming
out and there was this intensebeginning of a recognition of

(17:43):
maybe climate change is actuallyhappening, maybe this is a
reality.
Right around that time therewas some pretty cutting edge
research revealing that not only, yes, are we seeing increases
in temperature globally and thatthey are very measurable, we're
actually starting to seeevidence of how that is
affecting plants and animals.
Starting to see evidence of howthat is affecting plants and

(18:07):
animals.
And so changes in phenology isone of the earliest and most
visible signs of climate change.
And so there was this earlyresearch that came out of folks
that were studying the globeusing satellite data, remote
sensing, and they were startingto document greenness is
happening earlier in the springthan it used to, even just a few
decades ago.
And we have some really goodlong-term monitoring networks in

(18:32):
other countries, like in Asiaand in Europe, and researchers
using those long-term recordswere starting to publish pretty
compelling results demonstrating, yeah, we are seeing flowers
flowering earlier in the year,we're seeing birds migrate
earlier in the year, we'reseeing birds migrate earlier in
the year, and this looks likeit's tied to these warmer
temperatures.
And there were some scientistshere in the United States that
were saying, oh, we don'tactually have good monitoring of

(18:54):
this here in the US.
And so there was some movementto try to get a monitoring
network established, and ithappened to not only be at the
university that I was sitting at, but the headquarters were
being established in the samebuilding where I sat and just a
few doors down.
And at that time I didn't havea permanent job and I did have

(19:15):
some experience and somebackground in the topic, and so
I just kind of tried to makemyself very present to the
individuals that were, that werethe very first leaders for the
network, and ended up, longstory short, starting to work
with the network.
And so at that time then Istarted to learn what the heck
phonology actually meant and whyit was important, and so it

(19:37):
really was kind of like anunintended collision.

Speaker 1 (19:40):
Like you said, it bumped into you rather than you
bumped into it.

Speaker 2 (19:44):
We're in just the right place at the right time.

Speaker 1 (19:47):
Definitely so for those listening.
I'll throw in a little contextas well, because I initially at
first did not know whatphonology was and I did my own
exploration of it and I readyour book a little bit on
phonology and it's a reallyin-depth field and there's a lot
of nuance to it.
A really in-depth field andthere's a lot of nuance to it.
But for our listeners who don'tknow what phenology is, can you

(20:08):
explain a little bit whatphenology is and how that
connects to the natural world?

Speaker 2 (20:11):
Absolutely so.
I really like to say weactually all do know what
phenology is.
We just don't recognize theword all the time.
It's an old fashioned,antiquated term.
I really wish we had a bettersynonym for it.
Seasonality is kind of the bestalternative that we can use.
What it refers to is when stuffthat happens cyclically in

(20:33):
plants and animals are occurringin the spring, or when do the
spring peepers, which are theseadorable little frogs, start
peeping?
When do migratory animals leaveand arrive?

(20:55):
When do animals that hibernate,go into hibernation and then
come back out?
When do the leaves change colorand fall and start to drop?
And the other kind of piece ofthe definition that you can't
really disentangle is that ithas everything to do with what
the local conditions have been,because it really is temperature
primarily, but also moistureand sun angle and sometimes even
the presence of an activity ofother species that shape when

(21:19):
these things occur.
And so that is why phenology issuch a fantastic indicator of
how species are responding tochanging climate conditions.
It's because they are so darnsensitive, and so you know, if
they care about what thetemperature has been, then when
the temperatures are warmer,they shift their activity
earlier.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
Yeah, a lot of nuance with that.
It's like you said, everybodyknows what it is but they don't
exactly know like the word.
But there's a lot of nuancewith that.
It's like you said, everybodyknows what it is but they don't
exactly know like the word, and.
But there's a lot of nuance tothose cycles and stuff and, as
you said, they're sensitive tothe weather and climate.
Can you talk a little bit moreabout some of those cycles and
some things that may havesurprised you in learning more

(22:00):
about phonology?

Speaker 2 (22:02):
Yeah.
So I think one thing that'sdefinitely worth acknowledging,
kind of right out of the gate,is that, just like we know, with
weather, while a simpletake-home story is that, yes,
phenology is changing withchanging climate conditions,
there is still an awful lot ofyear-to-year variability.
And so, as we see year yearvariability and say how early we

(22:26):
experience warmth in the spring, for example, this spring has
actually not been superanomalously warm early in much
of the eastern US, unlike a lotof the most recent springs that
we've had, and so, as aconsequence, we aren't seeing

(22:48):
super duper right home to momabout early activity this year,
and again, that's in oppositionto what we've seen in a number
of recent springs.
So we really do need long-termrecords, long-term observations
collected, you know, throughtime, to be able to understand
how much things vary from yearto year and whether there is
some sort.
Again, the broad brush story isstuff's changing, stuff's

(23:12):
either happening earlier now orhappening later, and we see this
extension, this lengthening ofthe growing season, because the
leading edge is creeping earlierand largely the end of the
season is creeping later and sotherefore winter is shrinking.
But it is like you said, it'snuanced.
There's a lot of individualisticresponses among species.

(23:34):
Some are really advancing to ahuge degree and others maybe
just a little in the springtime,and others sometimes might even
delay.
And we're seeing a lot ofcomplex responses, and that's
where it starts to bleed intothe well, what is it that the
species are paying attention to?
Do they need just temperatureto go early in the spring, or do

(23:57):
they actually need a series ofother conditions as well?
And just one example of that issome plants need to be exposed
to a particular amount of chillin the winter.
Cherry trees are actually areally good example of this, and
if they don't have a certainamount of time and I think for
cherries it's about a monthbelow 41 degrees you know they

(24:18):
need to park for a period oftime and experience that chill.
If they don't experience thatwhole chill, then once it starts
getting warm in the spring theydon't actually respond.
They don't start to wake up and, you know, put on their flower
buds and then open their flowerbuds, and so if we have a really
warm winter, it doesn't matterwhat the spring is like.

(24:39):
Those trees actually delay.
They'll be late flowering inthat year because they're still
waiting around to experiencesufficient chill.
And so usually when thathappens is that the bloom is.
There's not nearly as manyflowers that are produced and
that open, and they come at alater date.
So it is a very complicatedstory, truthfully, when you
start to get down into what.

(25:00):
What's happening at thedifferent species levels and
their changes even acrossgeography is really variable too
.

Speaker 1 (25:07):
Yeah, a lot to unpack there.
I'm curious because you talkedabout the cherry tree and warmer
winters can inhibit flowersfrom blooming on the tree, and
we're starting to see warmerwinters becoming a little bit of
a trend.
Maybe those colder wintersaren't becoming as frequent as
they once were.
What are some other areas ofphenology that are impacted by

(25:31):
that, the more warm winters wesee?

Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, yeah, that's a really good question.
So one of the things that is ofconcern among ecologists going
forward is we might start toexperience mismatches between
migratory species coming from.
Say, if you're in the US andyou have a really warm spring,
species that are migratory aretypically coming from the south,
but it depends on where you arein the globe.

(25:55):
This is especially a concernamong birds that are long
distance migrants, so that aremigrating long distances to come
north.
We are starting to see evidenceof mismatches occurring between
those birds arriving and thefood sources that they require
once they arrive here, and, onthe other hand, the species on

(26:18):
this end that might requirepollination services or other
services from those birds.
And so how ecological orphenological mismatches can come
about is when the two speciesthat interact are triggered by
different conditions, and ifthose conditions you know, if
one set of conditions ischanging and the other is not,

(26:40):
then that will result in the onespecies experiencing a shift in
the timing of their activityand maybe the other not to the
same extent, and then you nolonger have things happening at
the same time that they used to,and so some of our best
examples of that are for thoselong distance migratory birds,
because oftentimes, if birds aremigrating really far, what

(27:00):
triggers them to initiate theirmigration is sun angle, so it's
the length of the day whichisn't being affected by climate
change, because it's solely afunction of where the earth is
in its revolution around the sun, solely a function of where the
earth is in its revolutionaround the sun.
And so those birds, by andlarge, those long-distance

(27:20):
migrants, are triggered tomigrate at pretty much the same
time of the year every singleyear, no matter, However, if
they are relying upon itsoftentimes insect food that they
need when they arrive at theirsummer breeding grounds, those
insects are typically cued tocome out by temperature, and so

(27:41):
if we have extra warm springswith early warmth, that trigger
those insects to come out, youknow, a couple weeks earlier
than average, then when thosemigratory birds arrive, those
insects may already have been,you know, emerged and started to
go through their different lifecycle stages, and may not be
the little juicy caterpillarsthat the birds actually like to

(28:03):
eat anymore.
They might have already moved onto a different life cycle stage
.
So there are an increasingnumber of examples of that kind
of situation that can beproblematic and we're keeping an
eye out.
It's really hard, honestly, tocapture true evidence of
mismatches, just because theseare hard things to track and we
need a lot of monitoring and alot of you know, a lot of eyes

(28:24):
on the ground and a lot ofsampling.
So it really biologicalmismatches are kind of more
something that everybody'sworried about, but we don't have
a ton of really good sense ofhow big of a problem it might be
or might become.
But that is one of the thingsthat definitely we are trying to
keep an eye on and one of theways that you know phenology can

(28:46):
be affected by changingtemperature conditions.

Speaker 1 (28:49):
I'm curious, because you mentioned the mismatch, the
misalignment between whenanimals migrate or their food
sources.
Is there a case where it's theopposite?

Speaker 2 (29:01):
Oh, that's a good question.
So meta-analyses, which bringtogether the information that's
been collected in a lot ofdifferent studies, largely
reveal this pattern that plantsare showing the greatest
advancements in the timing oftheir activity, or the largest
shifts, earlier or later, butit's typically earlier in the
spring, and then things that eatplants are showing a slightly

(29:24):
more muted effect, and thensecondary consumers, which are
animals that eat the animalsthat eat the plants, show
largely even less of a shift,and so it's kind of the inverse
of what you described, where youknow the consumer would have
the greatest shift and then theplant would not.
However, I feel like I wouldwant to research this further,

(29:45):
because some of our bestevidence of ecological
mismatches are coming from theArctic and the furthest north
parts of the world, becausethat's where we're seeing the
greatest shifts in temperature,the biggest trends in
temperature.
So everything's just the mostdramatic there, and I'm thinking
for sure of, I know, cariboumigration is being affected, and

(30:06):
especially caribou moms andwhen they have their babies, and
whether the food source theplant food source that the
babies rely upon, whether that'savailable at the time and the
place where they need it, I know, is being disrupted for sure,
and so now I think it's more amatter of trying to watch, to
see like animals are tricky tomonitor because they can move,

(30:29):
and so would those animalsrecognize that their breeding
ground is maybe not superappropriate anymore, given the
timing in the plants, and willthey shift elsewhere, physically
or not?
And I just don't feel like Iknow enough about that to tell
that story super well.

Speaker 1 (30:48):
That's fun.

Speaker 2 (30:48):
How about pollen?
I wonder if you were actuallydriving at pollen as being like
another example.

Speaker 1 (30:58):
It was a point that I was going to mention a little
bit later, but that was justmore of a curious question,
because you'd mentioned thatthere was that misalignment.
I was curious if the other wayof misaligning was present.
So you'd mentioned that there'sthese misalinings between
consumer and food source becauseof climate changing, weather
patterns changing Overall, whatdo you see in terms of

(31:20):
population distribution?
How is that changing withchanging weather patterns and
climate change?

Speaker 2 (31:27):
Yeah, so one of the clearest effects that has been
documented is that species thatare more sensitive, meaning that
they will advance or they'llshift the timing of their
activity to a greater degreewith changes in temperature, are
the ones that generally arefaring better, and so we see

(31:49):
becoming more abundant on thelandscape, and the species that
are kind of more stubborn anddon't want to advance their
timing or delay it again in thefall as a consequence of warmer
temperatures, are becoming a lotless common on the landscape,
so that's kind of one of thebiggest shifts In terms of their
ranges.
We typically also see thispretty clear pattern of species

(32:12):
moving poleward, but to tracktheir optimal conditions they
largely have to shift theirdistribution poleward or up in
elevation because of the warmertemperatures.

Speaker 1 (32:27):
Interesting.
So it touches upon somethingyou talked about in your book a
little bit the concept ofphenological plasticity or how
adaptive these species are.
Can you explain that a littlebit more and how that might
influence a species' ability toadapt to rapidly changing
weather extremes or, in abroader sense, climate change?

Speaker 2 (32:49):
Sure, sure.
So adaptation is actuallysomething that occurs as species
undergo different generationsand particular genes are
selected for, and so if thereare conditions, there are
pressures, like warmertemperatures, then in subsequent
generations, the individualsthat are able to tolerate the
higher temperatures would bemore successful at breeding, and

(33:12):
so, therefore, the genes thatthey have would be selected for,
and the subsequent populationsshould have the genes that
enable them to tolerate highertemperatures.
Climate change is happeningfast, and, in the most cases,
faster than species can undergoa lot of generations, and so,
rather than really activelyseeing a lot of adaptation, the

(33:33):
responses that we're seeing ismore plasticity, meaning the
species' ability to just kind oftolerate the changing
conditions, and so what thatlooks like, say, in a treat, is
just can you flower earlier whenit's warmer, and to what extent
can you shift your floweringearlier in response to that
warming?
And some species seem to bemore plastic and able to go with

(33:56):
the flow, and others are maybea little less comfortable, I
guess being able to toleratereally extreme conditions, and
those are the ones that, excuseme, just don't tend to do as
well.
And so, yeah, we are reallykind of like actively testing
what are the bounds, what arethe bounds of tolerance ranges

(34:16):
for different individuals andspecies in general?
Here where I live, the saguarocactus is really iconic and
abundant.
Those are the ones thateverybody always draws when they
think of a desert, with thearms that stick up, and we've
had some really hot, hot, drysummers recently, and especially

(34:36):
up in Phoenix.
I say up because it's north ofwhere I am in Tucson.
Phoenix is actually lowerelevation and hotter.
It's just this big basin and itgets so hot there and the
saguaros actually seem like theymay be approaching the limits
of some of the conditions thatthey can tolerate.
I've only heard anecdotally, soI don't really know how truly

(35:00):
scientifically defensible thisis, but I have heard of examples
of saguaros actually droppingarms up there, and it's been
proposed that it is becausethey're just so stressed by the
heat.
I don't know for certain ifthat's really a trend or not,
but for sure the plants are.
They did just look like we'rekind of approaching the limits

(35:22):
of what they can tolerate, andso that's where you know the
plasticity just runs up againsta hard stop.
And, yeah, keeping track ofthings is really valuable
because then you can reallybegin to understand and pinpoint
.
You know what was it?
Where was it where we actuallycrossed that threshold and can
we use that information maybe inpreservation or conservation

(35:43):
activities going forward?

Speaker 1 (35:46):
So, going back to the cactus, rather the arms up down
, well, they fall off, which isa really big deal because
they're really really heavy.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
The squirrel cacti are like I think they weigh tons
.
If they fall in a car theytotally flatten the car.
So even an arm falling offcould kill a person probably.
They're huge and they're fullof these horrible spines.
They're very, very spiny.

Speaker 1 (36:11):
Yeah, and we still have a lot more to dive deep
into the world of phonology, howthat connects to weather and
climate and how that,importantly, impacts you, the
listener.
So we're going to take a quickbreak right here, but don't go
anywhere.
We've still got more on thisdeep dive with Dr Teresa Krimitz
.
Keep it right here.
On this day in weather history,we return to March 31st and

(36:46):
April 1st of 2023 for the thirdlargest tornado outbreak of all
time and the largest Marchoutbreak of severe weather.
Tornado outbreak of all timeand the largest March outbreak
of severe weather.
On the morning of March 31st, asubstantial area of low
pressure was developing overNebraska.
As a result, unseasonable warmand moist air surged as far
north as Illinois and theMidwestern United States and

(37:07):
cold air swept down from Canada.
With the clash of warm and coldair, widespread atmospheric
instability and strong windshear, the environment over the
central and eastern UnitedStates would be more than ripe
for severe weather.
Specifically, two areas wouldbe highly favorable for
heightened tornado activity.
The first area coveredsoutheastern Iowa, northwestern

(37:30):
Illinois and far northeasternMissouri, while the second area
covered eastern Arkansas,southwestern Tennessee and
northern Mississippi.
The Storm Prediction Centerhighlighted these two areas with
a rare high risk for severeweather, something not seen
since 2001 and rarely everissued.
Shortly after 1 pm Central Time, discrete supercell

(37:52):
thunderstorms had blossomed overthe central United States, with
some beginning to producetornadoes.
A barrage of tornadoes andsevere weather would unfold in
the next 24 hours, some verypowerful and devastating.
One such tornado occurred nearthe beginning of the outbreak,
at approximately 2 18 pm.
It tore through the Little RockMetro area in Arkansas, causing

(38:14):
extensive damage and dozens ofinjuries, as well as up to $90
million in damages.
Throughout the day, numeroustornadoes and highly severe
weather slammed the central andeastern United States At several
points.
During the outbreak, multipletornadoes were active, with over
20 simultaneous tornadowarnings being active at

(38:35):
multiple points.
The most powerful tornado ofthe outbreak was an EF4 tornado
that occurred at 512 pmsouthwest of Keota, iowa.
Originating from the sameparent supercell that produced
an earlier EF3 tornado inOttumwa and Martinsburg, iowa,
the Keota Wellman EF4 tornadoquickly intensified into a large

(38:57):
multi-vorticity tornado.
The tornado narrowly missed thetown of Keota, but caused
significant damage nearby,flattening homes and destroying
outbuildings.
As it passed north of Keota, itreached its peak-intensive EF4,
sweeping away a farmhouse anddebarking trees.
This tornado would continuenortheast, leveling a

(39:17):
three-story farmhouse, hurlingvehicles thousands of feet away
and laying siege to whatever wasin its path.
This tornado would dissipatenear Amish Iowa at 5.37 pm.
Its 25-minute rain ofdestruction spanned more than 20
miles and injured three people.
Fortunately, no lives were lostwith this tornado.
However, the same could not besaid for other tornadoes with

(39:40):
this prolific outbreak.
Of the 114 total tornadoes thatoccurred on March 31, six
tornadoes were fatal.
This included a long-trackedand intense tornado that
occurred between 4.30 pm and5.54 pm in northeastern Arkansas
and western Tennessee.
This tornado tore a 73-milepath through parts of Wynn

(40:02):
Parkin and Terrell, arkansas, aswell as Drummond and Burleson,
tennessee.
It claimed the lives of fourpeople, injuring 26 others and
causing over $150 million indamages across the two states.
This tornado was the costliest,the second longest-tracked and
the second largest of the entireoutbreak.

(40:23):
The deadliest tornado of theoutbreak occurred between 11.04
pm and 12.37 am in westerncentral Tennessee.
This long-tracked, violenttornado tracked for almost 86
miles between areas just east ofMemphis and areas southwest of
Nashville.
It tore through portions ofBethel Springs, adamsville,

(40:43):
hooker's Bend and Hohenwald,tennessee, under the cover of
darkness of the late evening.
Because the tornado wasnocturnal, many people were in
bed and caught off guard by thetornado in the darkness.
This tornado claimed the livesof nine and injured 23 others.
Six lives were lost and 16others were injured by a
high-end EF3 tornado that torethrough parts of southeastern

(41:06):
Illinois and southwesternIndiana.
This tornado was yet anothernocturnal tornado that occurred
between 8.58pm and 10.33pm,leaving a more than 40-mile path
of devastation.
The historic Apollo Theater inBelvedere, illinois, collapsed
during a concert due to an EF-1tornado that tracked through the
town at 7.43pm, injuring 48concertgoers and killing one.

(41:31):
Parts of the eastern UnitedStates experienced continuous
severe weather and tornadoactivity into April 1.
This included a rare EF3tornado that tore through Sussex
County, delaware, killing oneperson.
This tornado was the largestever recorded in Delaware and
tied for the strongest in statehistory.
This tornado was only thesecond fatal tornado to ever

(41:52):
occur in Delaware history, whilenot as active as the previous
day, april 1, 2023 featured 31total Wisconsin, michigan, ohio,
pennsylvania, delaware and NewJersey.
The 115 tornadoes that occurredon March 31st tie the record

(42:24):
for the highest number oftornadoes from an outbreak in
March.
The outbreak as a whole is thethird largest outbreak of
tornadoes in a 24-hour period,only behind the 2011 super
outbreak and the 1974 superoutbreak.
The March 31st through April1st 2023 tornado outbreak killed
26 people, injured well over210 others and caused $5.7

(42:49):
billion in damages in damages.
Before we get back into the deepdive, here's a quick game of
avoid saying the same thing asme weather edition.
I will give you five weatherthemed categories and your job

(43:09):
is to think of a word in thatcategory, or related to that
category, that is different fromthe one that I say.
If you avoid thinking of thesame thing I think of for all
five categories, you win.
Ready, let's start with name atype of weather condition.
So you're walking outside.
What do you see outside goingon with the weather?

(43:31):
If you said overcast skies orcloudy skies meaning fully
covered clouds in the sky youare out.
Next up, name a type ofprecipitation.
So when you have water comingdown from the sky, what do you
have coming down?
If you said grapple, you areout and grapple is not hail.

(43:54):
So if you said hail, you arestill in the running for this
fun section.
Next up is name a famousmeteorologist.
It could be somebody ontelevision, it could be somebody
in the government, a stormchaser.
But if you said Ginger Z, I'msorry you are out and shout out

(44:14):
to Ginger Z Next up name a hotcity.
So think of all the cities thatare out there in the United
States or even just in the worldthat are hot all the time or
most of the time.
If you said Phoenix, or if youthought of Phoenix, I'm sorry
you are out.
Now for the last one.
Name one of the fouringredients needed for

(44:36):
thunderstorms to form.
You got a 25% chance with thisone.
So one of the four ingredientsneeded for thunderstorms to form
.
If you said moisture, I'm sorryyou are out Now.
If you made it this far and youavoided saying the same thing
as me, you win.
Now let's get back into the deepdive.

(44:56):
Hello and welcome back to theEverything Weather podcast.
I'm your host, kyle David, andtoday we've been deep diving
into the world of phenology andhow that all connects to the
weather, the climate, and howthat impacts you, the listener.
We've been talking with DrTeresa Crimmins.
She's the director of the USANational Phenology Network and

(45:18):
an associate professor in theSchool of Natural Resources and
the Environment at theUniversity of Utah, and she's
also authored a book onphenology which is out now and
you can get on all of yourplatforms.
We're going to be talking aboutyour book, dr Crimmins, a
little bit more about theconnection between phonology,
the worlds of weather andclimate.
But first a question that Ihave is how do these changes to

(45:40):
the phonology world impact thelistener, people listening, and
how do the cycles of animals andplants affect the listener?

Speaker 2 (45:50):
There's the big picture impacts and there's ways
that it can affect us directly,even in our pocketbooks.
The big picture you might startto see activity in your yard
earlier in the spring than youused to, or you may be raking
your leaves later than you usedto as things shift on a long
term.
But more direct impacts when wehave earlier springs.

(46:17):
We often see earlier start tothe allergy season because those
plants that produce the pollenthat irritates nasal passages
start pumping out that pollenearlier in the year.
And unfortunately recentresearch has suggested that as
we are experiencing warmer yearsand higher concentrations of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we are seeing longer pollen
seasons.
The seasons are startingearlier, they're extending

(46:38):
longer and there tends to bemore pollen in the air overall
and we see pretty clearincreases.
In just the past 30 years, theamount of pollen in the air
coming from wind pollinatedplants is somewhere around 20%
greater than it used to be andunfortunately that is a trend

(46:59):
that looks like it's likely tocontinue.
And then, with these changingconditions, we are seeing some
significant impacts toagriculture and that takes a
number of different forms.
But some of our produce plantsare getting hit really hard, for
example.
Takes a number of differentforms, but some of our produce
plants are getting hit reallyhard.
For example, when we have yearswith really early springs, like

(47:21):
we've had in a couple of themost recent years, if we have
warmth that is significantenough to get the plants going,
and then we experience a freezeevent that can be devastating
for some of our for ourlandscape plants, for sure, but
also for some of the fruit crops.
So, for example, there weremajor losses to cherries in the
north in 2012, like somethinglike 70% of the cherry crop was

(47:46):
lost because of those sets ofconditions, and we've seen
similar impacts to peaches inGeorgia in recent years.
Apple crops, similarly.
They can be devastated forthose when we experience a
sequence of events, and even outin California, where the
conditions sometimes seem lesssusceptible to those kinds of
events, we're seeing a lot ofimpacts, the kinds of impacts we

(48:07):
seem to be experiencing outthere.
More is that.
Again, going back to the plantsthat require a particular
amount of chill, we're startingto now experience situations
where, on a regular basis, thosecrops are not experiencing
sufficient chill, and so thathas a really problematic effect

(48:27):
of reducing how many flowers areproduced, and if you don't have
flowers, then you won't havefruits, and smaller crops is bad
for all of us.
Researchers are now trying toexperiment.
Can we breed plants that don'trequire that chill, or are there
ways that we can trick theplants into thinking that they
did experience the chill, evenif it wasn't cold enough?
A lot of the plants that werely upon at the grocery store

(48:50):
are starting to be affected bychanges in phenology, and if
they're not experiencing yet,they're probably at risk because
things are changing so quickly.

Speaker 1 (49:05):
And there's a lot to unpack there and explore more.
But I want to talk a little bitabout pollen, because that
affects everybody.
So you have allergies andyou're an allergy sufferer, like
me, you hate pollen.
Or whether you just get itcoated all over your car or
outdoor furniture, then you gotto clean it up.
It's a pain.
But I want to explore a littlebit more what that cycle is and
why do we see that.
So what is the cycle withpollen?

(49:27):
What causes pollen and how isthe weather and climate changing
that cycle of pollen?

Speaker 2 (49:33):
So the reason why plants make pollen is they're
trying to reproduce.
Largely, plants reproducesexually, meaning that there are
male gametes and female gametesthat need to be brought
together in order to achievefertilization and then that can
result in the production of aseed.
So, just like with humans,there are a number of plants

(49:55):
that produce flowers that willmake really beautiful,
attractive flowers that tend tobe very colorful and showy and
smell great.
And the reason why those plantsdo that is because they're
trying to attract a pollinator.
They're trying to attractsomething that will help move
their pollen from one flower toanother and thereby achieve
pollination.
And those pollinators can bebees, butterflies, bats,

(50:20):
sometimes animals like lizards,even mammals can get up inside
flowers.
Any plant that is producing ashowy or good smelling flower is
actually not the ones that areresponsible for your allergies.
The pollen that those plantsproduce is relatively large.
You still can't, it's hard tosee the pollen grains, but

(50:41):
comparatively they're large andthey tend to be heavy and sticky
.
The reasons why they're likethat is because, again, the
plant's trying to produce pollengrains that can stick to the
pollinator and then get carriedand transported to another plant
, and so the wind largelydoesn't pick up that pollen.
It doesn't get picked up in thewind and carried around.
The other strategy that a lotof plants can implement and this

(51:03):
is more for your cone-bearingtrees, like pine trees and
cypress and juniper or grasses,are to rely on the wind to
transport that pollen, andplants that rely on the wind
have to.
They just invoke this totallydifferent strategy where they
produce a whole lot of reallysmall pollen with the thinking

(51:24):
that the wind will pick it up,carry it on the currents and it
can reach another individualplant to achieve fertilization
in that way.
Those are the plants that areproblematic for us because they
are generating so much pollenand the grains are small and so
they get caught up in the windand then they get caught up in
our breathing apparatus andcause that irritation.

(51:44):
And, yeah, it really is thoseplants that create the problem.
And so there's certain regionseven of the country where it's
extra problematic.
In Texas they have somethingcalled cedar fever, because
there are so many cedars andcedars are wind pollinated and
they just produce loads of thispollen and it just coats
everything.
Like you said, you just seeyellow blankets on the landscape

(52:08):
and you can see these yellowclouds moving along when those
trees are releasing.
That's bad.
You want to stay inside andclose the doors and windows when
that is happening.

Speaker 1 (52:16):
Yeah, and to go on to your point about the cedar
fever, for those listening inthe Northeast, the Pine Barrens
of New Jersey and those otherwooded areas are huge
pollinators and every time Imyself drive through the Pine
Barrens there are clouds ofpollen that are present.
And I even see clips on socialmedia from people who are out in

(52:38):
the world and they tap on thetree and all of a sudden there's
a poof of pollen everywhere.
It makes me cringe.

Speaker 2 (52:46):
Yeah, those are the ones you want to stay away from.
Even if you don't have badallergies, I think it's still
not good to get all that up intoyour lungs.

Speaker 1 (52:53):
Yeah, it's just not good.
But continuing on theconnection between the weather
and climate and the plant sideof phenology, there are other
things too.
For example, like my mom is ahuge flower planter, she loves
planting flowers at home.
Growing flowers and forlisteners at home who like
growing flowers at home.
How does the weather andclimate impact growing those
flowers at home?
And for listeners at home wholike growing flowers at home how

(53:14):
does the weather and climateimpact growing those flowers at
home and other plants at home?

Speaker 2 (53:19):
Yeah, you've probably noticed, and if you haven't,
your mom probably has.
The USDA has these plantingzones which give you a sense of
what plants are most likely tolive, be able to tolerate the
conditions where you live, andit's largely a function of
temperature and how muchfreezing occurs a location, how
low the temperatures get and howlong they stay low.

(53:41):
As the temperatures haveincreased globally in recent
decades, the USDA has actuallyredrawn those planting zones and
shifted them north here in theUS by a significant amount,
because it's basically chasingthose conditions northward as
things have gotten warmer.
If a particular plant that youwant to grow in your yard is not

(54:01):
necessarily recommended foryour planting zone, it doesn't
mean it won't grow, but it meansthat it's probably going to
take some extra coddling eitherprotection from the frost if
you're bringing something fromfurther south to the north, or
probably supplemental wateringand maybe shading if you're
going in the inverse direction.
That's something I run into allthe time is our plants just get

(54:23):
fried out here because it's toohot and even the sun is just too
intense, and so increasingly,that's the kind of thing that
we're all going to be runninginto, honestly.
As it gets hotter this is thething as it gets warmer,
regardless of whetherprecipitation patterns change or
not, evaporative demand tendsto increase, meaning that the

(54:43):
plants just are sucking moremoisture, they just need access
to more moisture, and that cancreate a lot of stress, and so
that is something that we'llhave to keep an eye on going
forward for sure, and so that issomething that we'll have to
keep an eye on going forward forsure.

Speaker 1 (54:55):
Yeah, my mom has noticed that a little bit Some
plants that we were able to growin our backyard.
It's a little more difficultnow because of those changing
weather and climate patterns.
We've been talking abouttemperature change over quite
some time, but there's also theprecipitation side of it too.
We're seeing a lot more ofthose extremes.

(55:17):
We have more wetter events andthen we also have these drier
events where things becomeextremely dry and we have those
on and off extremes.
Now how does that impactphenological cycles with plants
and animals?

Speaker 2 (55:27):
That's a really good question.
I definitely was thinking aboutthe impact of extreme events,
because they tend to have areally outsized effect on
ecosystems and individual plantsand it can be any kind of
extreme event.
The really intense wind likederecho or tornado events
clearly can strip plants of allof their leaves, which sets them
back until they can replacethem.

(55:48):
Also, hard freezes can be verydamaging.
Again, like we talked about,they can knock back the flowers
for the whole season becauselargely, plants don't put on new
flowers if they'refreeze-killed in one year.
But also, yes, just the reallyintense rain events or very dry
events all just tend to stressplants really badly and animals
too.
We're just really starting tounpack what the impacts are

(56:11):
likely to be there.
But anything that disrupts themfrom completing a life cycle in
a particular year and in thecase of plants, that is putting
on those flowers that can thenresult in seed production and
seeing the seeds mature.
If that isn't completed, thatcan affect the plant's
persistence going forward.
I think that's still a reallyactive area that we're keeping
an eye on to see who's beingaffected the most and to what

(56:34):
extent in what ways.

Speaker 1 (56:36):
Just for context, can you share some specific
examples of certain plants orinsects or animals that are
being changed that you've found?

Speaker 2 (56:45):
I can't think of any off the top of my head.
So I know, for example, someinsects cannot really function
very well once the temperatureexceeds it's typically a max of
86 degrees.
They just shut down honestly,and so if we are experiencing
more and more time above thatthreshold, that can affect them

(57:07):
for sure in a negative way andthat can work in our favor if
it's a pest insect.
But if it's a beneficial insectthat we're looking at for
biodiversity and the ecosystemservices that it provides in the
form of pollination and otherthings, then that can really be
a problem and have an impact onpopulation sizes.

Speaker 1 (57:23):
And since we're talking a little bit about
insects and stuff, there's somecases where invasive species
like the lanternfly a lot oflisteners know about that and
the initiative've only seen likea few cases of that not as
widespread as the lanternfly.
But can you explain howinvasive species have changed,

(57:57):
whether they've become a littlemore prevalent, like cases of
invasive species have becomemore prevalent or less prevalent
with changing climate patternsand weather patterns?

Speaker 2 (58:07):
So typically, whether they can take advantage of
changing conditions is a keyingredient to whether they are
becoming more prevalent andthereby invasive.
So what really defines aninvasive species is a species,
typically, that's beenintroduced from somewhere else
and has some sort of mechanismor adaptation that allows it to

(58:28):
really become abundant in a newsystem.
And yes, those insects that younamed fit that description
really well.
They don't have a naturalpredator here in the US and they
have very abundant food sourcesand they can just run roughshod
across our landscapes here.
And yes, some of the researchthat has gone into trying to
understand that more is that,especially in plants and

(58:50):
invasive plants, one of thethings that allows those
individuals to be pervasive andsuccessful is that they can
out-compete the natives.
They oftentimes will initiatetheir activity in the spring
earlier than the natives willjust emerge earlier.
They're just willing to riskpotential risk to freeze events

(59:10):
but they'll put out their leavessooner and when they do that
they're getting advanced accessto sunlight and to nutrients and
available other availableresources and by getting that
head start they can start toreally squeeze out the natives.
And there are a number ofshrubs in the eastern US that
have really taken over easternforests because of that kind of

(59:33):
activity.
Some of the honeysuckles andbuckthorn and multiflora rose
have really squeezed out a lotof the natives because they are
just willing to get goingearlier in the spring.

Speaker 1 (59:45):
Yeah, there's a lot with the insect world that's
starting to change as weatherand climate patterns do, and one
thing I kind of want to touchupon is a little bit with your
work on forecasting short-termphenology with insects and stuff
, because it's not just animpact to forest, it's also an
impact to agriculture.

(01:00:06):
So first off, can you elaborateon how the research you're
doing on insect phenologiesimpacting agricultural practices
and what's something thatyou've seen in that research
that the weather and climate ischanging with the impact of
insect phenology on agriculture?

Speaker 2 (01:00:24):
Yeah, sure.
So where we fit in with the USANational Phenology Network.
One of the things that we do istry to take knowledge of what
are the conditions thatparticular species need to be
exposed to in order to initiatea particular life cycle stage to
be reached, and then implementthat as a forecast, and so we

(01:00:46):
have a number of what we callpheno forecasts that are
available in real time, andthey're six days out.
The intention there is to givemanagers who are trying to
control these typicallyproblematic insects a heads up
as to when the insects are goingto reach a particular life
cycle stage during which theyare the most susceptible to

(01:01:07):
control, and so, in the case ofspotted lanternfly, when they
emerge as adults is an importanttime to be able to identify
them and try to really squishthem and take advantage, really
try to control them, and so wehave a forecast that predicts in
real time where those adultsare being.

(01:01:28):
We also have a parallel forecastfor the spotted lanternfly eggs
, because if you can find anddestroy the eggs, then you don't
so much have to worry about theadults, and so I'm looking at
the forecast that's up on ourwebsite right now and we're
showing that anywhere in thisweek there's a band basically

(01:01:48):
stretching through the middle ofSouth Carolina and Georgia all
the way across to El Paso, wherewe have reached the conditions
that, if there are spottedlanternfly eggs, right now is
when we're expecting they wouldbe hatching.
So right now would be the timeto control, and then, as you go
north from that band, we havepredictions that you're likely

(01:02:09):
to reach those conditions ineither one week or two weeks, or
three weeks or a month or more,and so if you're someone who's
trying to control that, you canconsult these forecasts and plan
accordingly and try to identifywhen you should have crews out
looking and being ready to takeaction in an attempt to slow
down the damage that theseparticular critters are having.

Speaker 1 (01:02:31):
Just curious, since you had mentioned your website
and the forecasts that you dofor the spawning night to fly
eggs, what are some of thoseother forecasts that you have on
your website for insects?

Speaker 2 (01:02:41):
Yeah, so there are quite a few.
Asian longhorn beetle is a realproblematic one in the east, as
well as emerald ash borer, wealso have bronze birch borer,
bagworm, spongy moss, wintermoss, pine needle scale, lilac
borer so a lot of the insects,all different kinds boring

(01:03:02):
insects and sucking insects,needle scales but they're all
available in real time where youknow if you're trying to keep
track of when and where theseguys are becoming likely to
enter a stage where they can bemost effectively controlled.
You can check out these mapsand a really nice thing is that
if you check the map and it'snot anywhere near the time when

(01:03:23):
you'd need to take action butyou are concerned, you might not
remember to come back.
You can sign up to receiveemail-based notifications based
on your location.
That'll give you the heads upwhen things are, say, three
weeks out or two weeks out.
So that may be worth checkingout.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
We're going to link that in the show notes for our
listeners.
Go and check your website outmore on how to get those email
notifications.
But we had talked a little bitearlier and I want to shift
towards it the impact ofagricultural cycles and how that
can affect things at the storeshopping for certain items.
How has the climate and weatherpatterns changing affected the

(01:04:00):
agriculture business and whatare those trickle down impacts?

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
Oh my gosh, that's a lot.
There's a lot to unpack there.
I feel like I mostly answeredthat to the best of my ability
before when I talked about howthe crops are being affected.
Yeah, I think your question isbroader, but I don't know that I
can do it super justice,honestly.
So, with warmer temperatures, Ithink it's definitely affecting

(01:04:25):
which crops can be grown inwhich locations, and definitely
the same for changes inprecipitation patterns, and so I
know there's a lot of researchgoing into developing seed
strains that are more tolerantand more resistant to particular
drought conditions inparticular, and dialing in
exactly when the seeds should beplanted to maximize harvest

(01:04:48):
dates.
And then I know there's a lotof research, too, going into
trying to protect against thesecontinually new invasive insects
and pests that are problematicto the crops as well, and so it
seems like also an area needinga lot of attention because it's
a moving target, a very rapidlymoving target and area needing a

(01:05:08):
lot of attention because it's amoving target, a very rapidly
moving target.

Speaker 1 (01:05:12):
And on the note of agriculture, because it's not
just commercial agriculture.
There's also people at home whohave their own like little mini
I don't want to say plantations, but their own little gardens
of corn, tomatoes, cucumbers.
My mom has done that in thepast.
She wants to get back into thatnow.
But what do you see is thefuture of both commercial and
home agriculture because ofchanging weather and climate
patterns?

Speaker 2 (01:05:33):
I think that kind of going back to the changing
climate zones.
Wherever you are, as conditionscontinue to change, you will be
able to grow things that in thepast maybe you couldn't, things
that only could grow in areasthat were a little warmer will
be able to put things that inthe past maybe you couldn't
Things that only could grow inareas that were a little warmer
will be able to put things outearlier in the season.

(01:05:53):
However, with that caveat thatif you're in a place that
experiences frost, you'll haveto be real cognizant of the risk
of frost.
There has been some recentresearch that has suggested that
going back to that reallydecimate that year in 2012, that
spring that we experienced in2012, where the cherry crops got
decimated in Michigan, therewas some research that projected

(01:06:16):
forward that by mid-century weare likely to have the risk of
that kind of event occurring inone out of every three years.
So we will have the ability togrow things in new areas, but
there will be a lot of riskassociated with everybody
because of increased variabilityin the freeze events and then,

(01:06:37):
as well as, I think, availablemoisture too.
And then, yeah, the associatedpests are still a problem, and
that's true not just forcommercial ag, but for folks
growing things in their own homegardens as well.

Speaker 1 (01:06:49):
It's very interesting to see all these changes
happening to the insect world,the plant world, a little bit of
the animal world too.
And real quick, before we touchin your book on phenology and a
little bit of how people canget involved with the world of
phenology, what are some of thenotable impacts of animals to

(01:07:09):
the change in climate andweather patterns?

Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
We're definitely experiencing shifts in the
timing of their activity too.
The species that are exhibitingthe greatest shifts, amphibians
in particular, are showing hugeshifts in the timing of their
activity.
For example, frogs largely burythemselves in the dirt over the
winter or in like mud, and justgo into this state of torpor

(01:07:32):
where their heart rates slow waydown and they then emerge in
the spring as things warm backup.
In some cases they're startingto emerge 60 days earlier than
they used to just a few decadesago.
It might be surprising to learnthat fish can migrate.
There are a lot of fish thatmigrate in the ocean to follow
ocean temperature, and so theygo with ocean currents.
And there's this one reallyamazing data set where, out of

(01:07:56):
the Narragansett Bay, peoplehave tracked different species
of fish and some are winterresidents.
Fish are summer residents inthe bay, and the timing of
arrival and departure for thosedifferent fish species has
shifted by enormous amounts 60,70, 80 days in some of the
species as a result of changingocean temperatures.

(01:08:18):
We definitely see clear evidenceof changes in the timing of
migration of birds.
It's more in the case ofshort-distance migrants, because
those ones tend not to be cuedso much by sun angle, it's
either temperature or sometimesit's even biological cues.
When they start to see thingsgreening up, then they'll head
north, further north or whereverit is that they need to go.
But yeah, we see very clearevidence of a lot of shifts in a

(01:08:42):
lot of animals in lockstop,really, with plants too.

Speaker 1 (01:08:46):
Very interesting and we can segue into your book
about phenology and what thesecycles are and how it's impacted
by the climate.
So, first off, what canlisteners who find your book and
get it learn from it?
And then also for you, what'sbeen the most rewarding and
challenging part of translatingall of this complex phenological

(01:09:07):
data and concepts intoinformation that people can walk
away from or with.

Speaker 2 (01:09:13):
One of the hardest parts for me has been to remain
open in the face of a lot ofdisheartening news and not to
become numb because hearingnumbers like frogs have shifted
their emergence by 60 days orsame for snakes.
Actually, snakes are another one, it's just a number, and to

(01:09:36):
write down that number and shareit with someone else is you can
just go through that motion oryou could actually absorb that
information and take it in andreally feel some feelings, and
those feelings are typicallyhard to contend with, honestly,
and so that has been a challengetrying to stay in touch with
what it is that I'm documentingand not get completely

(01:10:00):
disheartened and depressed by it, but also to try to think about
where there are points of hopeand opportunity.
That may be a really good seguefor me to share, then, that the
one really amazing opportunitythat I can offer to folks
especially if you are feelingbummed out about hearing about
all these kinds of changes isthat we my network, the USA

(01:10:22):
National Phonology Networkoffers a program called Nature's
Notebook, and it is a platformthat anybody can use to track
what's happening in plants andanimals in your yard, and I have
been documenting what'shappening on several trees in my
yard for 15 years now, and,honestly, it truly is a very
pleasurable activity and bringsme a lot of joy.

(01:10:44):
I'm right on the cusp right nowof leaves starting to come out
on my desert willows, and I justnoticed a bunch of flowering, a
lot of buds flower buds on mylime tree, and so I keep running
out to check to see if any ofthem have opened yet.
It really is a lot of fun, andthose data are part of a
database that we maintain thatnow has over 40 million records

(01:11:06):
in it, and researchers regularlytap that to better understand
how things are changing andwhether species are adapting,
like you asked about earlier,and trying to get at basic,
fundamental information thatconservationists can use going
forward to help us preserve thewonderful ecosystems that we
have.

Speaker 1 (01:11:26):
Yeah, and to touch upon your point earlier, the
issue of having long-term data.
This kind of helps that andhelps you understand what is
going on Rain, snow, sleet, hailnetwork that is run, and then
also the MPing network that theNational Weather Service does.
That allows people to report onthe ground what is going on in
their location at that currenttime.

(01:11:48):
And on that note, how canpeople find out more about
Nature's Notebook, get involvedwith that?
And then also going back toyour book, how can people find
your book as well?

Speaker 2 (01:11:57):
Thanks, yeah, so we are good friends with CoCoRaHS
actually, and yes, you're right,we're like complementary
networks.
Anybody who tracks precip andother weather events through
cocoras is totally a primecandidate for also tracking
what's happening on their plantsand animals in their yard.
You can learn about Nature'sNotebook on our website, which

(01:12:18):
is wwwusanpnorg, or you can justsimply download the Nature's
Notebook app through eitheriTunes or the Google Play Store.
The book is available forpurchase through Amazon and
Barnes, noble and a number ofother sources.
I will give you a discount codebecause if folks are interested

(01:12:42):
in purchasing it throughPenguin Random House, which is
the distribution publisher, theygive me a 20% off code.
All right?

Speaker 1 (01:12:49):
Well, I'm sure everybody loves discounts and I
really think it's a good book tobuy.
Again, where can people get thebook and tell a little more
about that discount?

Speaker 2 (01:12:58):
Sure, so you can go to either Amazon or Barnes and
Noble or Books a Million, or, ifyou want to use that discount
code, that's right.
Yes, you can go topenguinrandomhousecom and then
use the code READMIT20.
So it's R-E-A-D-M-I-T-2-0, andthat will give you 20% off.

Speaker 1 (01:13:20):
So that's READMIT20 for 20% off if you order through
penguinrandomhousecom, and Iencourage all the listeners to
go and get that book because itreally is a very interesting
read on how the natural worldcycles and changes and how
that's being changed by climatechange and weather patterns as
well a little bit.
So very interesting book.

(01:13:42):
Highly recommend it.
With that said, I've got onemore question.
This is our little sunsetsegment as we wrap up our
conversation.
It's an open-ended question.
So are there any points that weleft out in our conversation
that you'd like to bring up, anymyths about the phonology world
that you'd like to bust whilewe're talking about here, or any

(01:14:03):
other parting thoughts for ourlisteners?

Speaker 2 (01:14:05):
I think the one thing I will add is to make the clear
distinction between phenologyand phrenology, because
oftentimes the words areconfused and phrenology is a
pseudoscience, where people usedto feel the bumps on skulls to
identify whether folks had atendency for criminal activity.

Speaker 1 (01:14:24):
and they totally are not related Phenology, not
phrenology, which I didn't knowwas a thing.

Speaker 2 (01:14:31):
When we'd go to Wendy's restaurants they had
like old, like 1980s or 1800snewsprint on the tables.
I don't know if you rememberthat For some reason, I think
there was one of those skulls onthere.

Speaker 1 (01:14:45):
I don't remember too much about Wendy's in the
earlier days.

Speaker 2 (01:14:50):
I remember like I'm going to find an image and I am
certain that there's.
Okay, I'm certain that Iremember seeing a picture of one
of these like skulls on there.
I don't know if I could findthat, but all right, here's an
example.
People are like selling thesetables now this is hilarious.
All right, here's an example.
People are like selling thesetables now this is hilarious.
All right, I'm going to putthis in the chat.
This was what was at everyWendy's restaurant when I was

(01:15:13):
growing up.
Let's see, if you Google likeWendy's vintage tabletop, you'll
be like oh okay.

Speaker 1 (01:15:20):
Yeah, I don't remember that.
I remember the plants that usedto be in there.

Speaker 2 (01:15:25):
Yeah, yeah, okay, just look up this then for
phrenology, because maybe thiswill make more sense.
It was just, they had the head,like the skull, mapped out, and
if you had like different lumps, then it meant you were.

Speaker 1 (01:15:40):
Oh, so like I'm reading for the head, that's the
way to characterize it actually, palm reading for the head.
Yeah, palm reading is justmumbo jumbo and this sounds like
mumbo jumbo.
Yeah totally All right,interesting A little more that
I've learned today.
With that said, we'll includeall of the stuff we've talked

(01:16:02):
about in our conversation,including some pictures about
some of the plants, animals thatwe've talked about, the link to
your book, phenology, which isout now, again promo code
READMIT20 for 20% off on that atpenguinrandomhousecom, and you
could also get the book at theMIT Press and a little more
about the Nature's Notebook andwhere you could download that

(01:16:23):
app as well.
With that said, thank you somuch, dr Crermans, for coming on
and talking about the world ofphonology.

Speaker 2 (01:16:30):
And thank you so much for having me, kyle, it's been
a pleasure.

Speaker 1 (01:16:34):
Absolutely, dr Kermans, and for our listeners,
stick around for some closingthoughts and our weather or not
trivia.
And this concludes our deepdive into the world of phonology
and how it connects to theweather and climate.
Again, thank you to Dr Crimminsfor her time and help with this

(01:16:57):
deep dive and personally it'sbeen a very interesting
conversation that I had with DrCrimmins and reading her book on
phonology and how the weatherand climate connects to it.
I thought it was reallyinteresting because there were
some tidbits in there.
I don't want to reveal too muchto give it away, but there was
a lot of interesting connectionsthat I myself did not think of

(01:17:19):
when it came to how the weatherand climate connect to phonology
.
And then during ourconversation there were things
from the phenology world howthose impact us With pollen
that's a very common example ofhow phenology affects us With
invasive species, withagriculture.
There are so many differentthings with the world of

(01:17:40):
phenology that connect to theweather and climate and how they
impact us and you the listenerclimate and how they impact us
and you the listener.
And if you found this a veryinteresting conversation, I
highly recommend reading herbook that just came out on
phenology called Phenology.
We'll have that information inthe show notes for you to go and
check out that book, and youcan also get a discount code to

(01:18:02):
save some money on that as well.
Who doesn't like discounts?
Now, if you have any questionsfor Dr Crimmins or want to hear
a little bit more about her work, email everythingweatherpodcast
at gmailcom for some moredetails on that.
That's everythingweatherpodcastat gmailcom.
And before we get into our lastsegment of whether or not,

(01:18:24):
please consider sharing thepodcast with anyone you know and
leave a review on your favoritepodcast streaming platform.
It not only helps me improvethe podcast and bring you even
better weather content andthings related to the weather,
but it also helps grow thepodcast and reach more
weather-minded people.
Now let's get into our lastsegment whether or not.

(01:18:45):
Now let's get into our lastsegment weather or not.
If this is your first timelistening to the podcast,
weather or not is a fun triviagame I play with my guests at
the end of our conversationsthat tests their weather and
non-weather related trivia.
This time around, though, youare going to be the one in the
hot seat playing, so I've gottwo weather themed and two

(01:19:07):
non-wethemed multiple choicetrivia questions for you to play
along with.
Let's see how you do this iswhether or not your first
question is related tohurricanes.
Which of the following is notan ingredient needed for a
hurricane to form?
Is it A Warm ocean waters, bLow wind, shear, c Saharan dust

(01:19:30):
or D abundance of moisture?
I'll read those answer choicesone more time Is it A warm ocean
waters, b low wind, shear, c,saharan dust or D abundance of
moisture?
Which one of these is not aningredient needed for a
hurricane to form?
And the correct answer is CSaharan dust.

(01:19:52):
Saharan dust is bad forhurricane formation.
They don't like dust in theirsystem.
I don't think anybody does.
Anyways, next up, your nextquestion is related to anatomy.
What is the heaviest organ inthe human body?
Is it A the skin, b the liver,c the brain or D the heart?

(01:20:15):
Again, what is the heaviestorgan in the human body?
Is it A the skin, b the liver,c the brain or D the heart?
And time's up, the correctanswer is A the skin is the
heaviest organ in the human body.
It's also the largest organ inthe human body.
All right.

(01:20:35):
Next question is related toweather fronts.
What is the term for a type offront formed when a cold front
overtakes a warm front in a lowpressure system.
Is it A a convergence front, ban occluded front, c a dry line
or D a shear line?
Again, what is the term for atype of front formed when a cold

(01:20:58):
front overtakes a warm front,specifically in a low pressure
system?
Is it A a convergence front, ban occluded front, c a dry line
or D a shear line?
Any time is up.
The correct answer is B anoccluded front.
And we got one more question foryou.
This one is related tocountries.

(01:21:19):
Which country's national animalis a unicorn?
Is it A Denmark, b New Zealand,c France or D Scotland?
Again, which country's nationalanimal is a unicorn?
Is it A Denmark, b New Zealand,c France or D Scotland?

(01:21:40):
And your time is up.
The correct answer is DScotland, and I think that's
pretty cool.
Fun fact, if you ask me, Idon't think any country has a
national animal like that,although since we were talking
about New Zealand, I feel likethey should have hobbits or

(01:22:00):
something from Lord of the Ringsas their national animal, maybe
a Nazgul or something.
Anyways, that brings us to theend of our weather, or not?
Trivia and the end of thispodcast episode.
Thank you again to Dr Crimminsfor her time on this deep dive
and thank you to the listenerfor listening to the Everything
Weather podcast, and we'll catchyou on the next episode.

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Crime Junkie

24/7 News: The Latest

Stuff You Should Know

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}David's Deep Dives: Phenology, Changing Natural Cycles, & Weather

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Crime Junkie

24/7 News: The Latest

Stuff You Should Know

All Episodes

David's Deep Dives: Phenology, Changing Natural Cycles, & Weather

Crime Junkie