March 17, 2025 • 25 mins
Dive into the world of economics with Diana Mussina, the Deputy Chief Economist at AMP, in the first episode of Season 2 at Finance Friends! Diana shares her inspiring journey from a finance and economics student at the University of New South Wales to a leading role in one of Australia's prominent financial institutions.
Listeners will learn about the intricacies of precarious economic forecasting, the transition from sell-side to buy-side roles, and Diana's firsthand experiences during unpredictable market cycles. With insights into the importance of effective communication in conveying economic data, Diana provides invaluable advice for anyone looking to carve out a career in finance.
Follow Diana on LinkedIn and check out @Econosights on Instagram for more economic insights. You can also listen to their podcast, linked here, for expert takes on market trends and financial strategies.
Enjoyed the episode? Follow Finance Friends Podcast on Instagram and TikTok for updates and more inspiring conversations. Got questions or ideas for future episodes? Send us a DM @financefriendspodcast!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to Finance Friends with Fabian, where we
give our listeners anopportunity to be a part of our
conversation with financialservices industry leaders, hear
their stories, the challengesthey've overcome and the
invaluable advice they have foranyone interested in the
financial world.
Keep up to date with us byfollowing Finance Friends
podcast on Instagram and TikTok.
(00:27):
Welcome to Finance Friends withFabian podcast.
And today we have Diana Mussina, the Deputy Economist at AMP.
Sorry, deputy Chief Economist,is that right?
That's right.
Well, welcome.
How are you?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
today.
Thank you, fabian.
Thanks for having me on, I'mgood.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
That's good and well.
You've achieved so much alreadyin your career, so it'd be good
to maybe take us back to thebeginning.
So you did a finance degreefinance, accounting and
economics at uni.
Is that right?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
I did commerce and economics at the University of
New South Wales, so it was adouble degree that was offered.
I'm not sure if it's stilloffered anymore, but it was
actually one of the only unisthat offered that combination.
I really loved economics inhigh school but I thought that
commerce was sort of a bitbetter for the working life
because I wasn't like a lot ofpeople.
(01:18):
Probably I didn't really know,you know what what economists
did, if I could really be aneconomist, what actually
involved.
I just knew that I really likedit, so it was a good.
It was a four-year degree.
It was a really good sort of.
It gave me a really goodunderstanding of both the
financial aspects of things, butthen also my love for economics
.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Yep.
So where did the love foreconomics start?
Like what made you decide tostudy economics in year 11,?
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I assume yeah to be honest, I'm not actually sure I
did, I just think I took anatural liking to it.
I mean I always liked maths,but I wouldn't say I was like a
gun at maths or anything.
I mean my extension mathsteacher would probably tell you
that you know I still had a lotof trouble with maths.
I wouldn't say I was verynatural at it, but I really
(02:05):
liked it and I worked quite hardat it.
And I did business studies aswell.
We did have in year 9 and 10 wehad like an additional subject.
It was a I can't remember whatit was called, but it was
basically some sort of likecommercey type of subject about
like how businesses work, abouthow the world works, and I
thought that would sort of be avery natural step towards
(02:28):
economics.
So I think I always just reallyenjoyed trying to figure out
how things work in terms of howindustries and businesses fit
into the world, and it was justquite natural for me.
I wasn't particularly good atscience, sort of everyone in my
family is a scientist, basically, except for me.
I just was never good atscience.
Everyone in my family is ascientist, basically, except for
me.
I just was never good at it, soI just thought that it was just
(02:49):
something that I was naturallygifted at.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, so then from there you studied and you
finished your degree doubledegree, was it, or just?
A double degree and then youjoined CBA as a graduate program
.
That's right, yeah, so tell mea bit about that?
What did you as part of therotations?
What did you do at CBA?
Speaker 2 (03:10):
So when I was in my last year of uni, like a lot of
people, I basically applied to alot of different internship
programs.
I applied for everything Icould find any entry level, any
graduate programs and I got afew interviews and CBA was one
of them and the interviewprocess I felt it was.
I just felt like it was areally good fit.
So when they offered me therole I instantly said yes.
(03:33):
So it was in the InstitutionalBanking and Markets Program,
which looks a little bitdifferent now at CBA, but
basically there were rotationsoffered in like the consumer
side, so the actual consumer,the institutional banking side,
but from like the consumer pointof view or the business point
(03:53):
of view, I did a rotation in theequities research team which
doesn't exist anymore.
but then I did a rotation inclient relationships and I can't
remember where I did my lastrotation now it's been so long
ago.
But yeah, you know the whole.
The experience was really good.
(04:13):
It was a year and I got tolearn different parts of the
business, and when I did theequities research rotation, that
was how I started to get toknow the economists and the
economics team, and so Ibasically lined up a rotation
for myself in the economics teamand that was actually my last
rotation, of course.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Well, that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
But yeah, I lined that one up because they hadn't
had a.
I don't think that they had hada graduate for a long time in
that team if ever.
They hadn't ever had a femalegraduate in that team not for
many, many years, so it wasquite fresh for them.
But ever since then I thinkthat they've had many, many more
graduates in that team.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
So when you talk about institutional banking and
markets, let's touch on theresearch piece.
So what were you doing?
Were you researching individualcompanies?
Yeah, Were you supporting asenior research analyst and took
me through what was I don'tknow?
It was a few years ago.
Yeah, it took me through thatprocess because we have had some
portfolio managers on beforeand seen you got an early start
(05:12):
to that, but you decided to godown the economics route or
becoming an economist, and,keeney, what did you do and what
did you enjoy about that?
And then maybe let's touch onalso the economist part and what
made you go down that pathway.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
So that part of the business doesn't exist anymore
at CBA, but it's basically theequities research division that
you would have at an investmentbank.
So there were differentanalysts that would cover
different stocks.
I was in the small caps team atthe time when I was rotating
that.
That was my first rotation andyou would be looking at a
company bottom up.
You would be meeting withmanagement, cfos and CEOs trying
(05:48):
to figure out the company'sbalance sheet, their income
statement, their cash flowstatement, basically trying to
give a target for the cash priceso that the clients could
either buy or sell or hold thatparticular stock.
So we had that equitiescapability as well.
That was actually doing thetrading of those equities.
So my role as a graduate wouldbe to help build up those
(06:09):
spreadsheets, put in the numberswhen reporting season came out,
but I don't really know why I?
didn't love it.
I just don't think I fit in tothat style, to that analyst sort
of role that you normally.
I think it did have a very sortof old school analyst,
(06:30):
investment banking type ofattitude in the division.
I just didn't really fit intoit.
But when I met the economicsteam I instantly loved the work.
I wasn't really interested intrying to understand how a
company worked and looking atbalance sheets and cash flow
statements and looking at thatbottom-up.
I love doing bottom-up analysisof the economy but it's quite
(06:53):
macro when you're thinking aboutwhat an economist does in that
type of role, rather than tryingto forecast individual business
investment components of thatparticular company.
It's quite specific and I thinkI always like the broader
picture.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Yeah, in Australia and maybe this is changing.
But from when I my experienceworking in financial advice and
wealth management, we are verymuch bottom-up focused and stock
specific and I think globallyit's more you know top-down and
macro focus.
I think that is evolving inAustralia.
But yeah, it's interesting, yousay that and so, and then you
(07:33):
moved into, you know, working.
So you finished your graduateand so then you moved into
working.
So you finished your graduateprogram and then you started
working as an economist.
Was that your title at CBA?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, it was.
It was economist, I think.
There were lots of differentlayers, but I'm pretty sure it
was economist and I worked inthe economics team for about
four years afterwards, yeah.
And then the opportunity cameup at AMP so I moved over to the
funds management side becausethe CBA economic side was
sell-side research.
(08:03):
So, being a macroeconomist, butsell-side.
When you say sell-side,basically it means that you are
competing with other economiststo sort of sell your views to
the market.
So you would try and be, youknow, the person that people
would listen to, both from abrand point of view, but then
also you know to want to dodeals with CBA or trade with CBA
or using CBA, basically as,like your trading partner, I
(08:28):
would sit on.
The economics team used to siton the trading floor, so on
market, so we would be aroundpeople making decisions on
currency spot desk, thecommercial desk.
It was a very fast-pacedenvironment and it looks quite
different now, I think, becauseof some of the regulations that
have evolved in markets and alsowith research and MIFID rules
(08:51):
and all those types of things.
So actually the economics teamdon't even sit on the market's
trading floor anymore.
They're sort of in their ownbubble, research bubble.
But then I moved into AMP.
I wanted to get exposure to thefund side or the buy side.
Basically it means that you arethe asset owner ultimately and
you're making decisions aboutwhere to invest different assets
(09:12):
.
So I guess economists stilldefinitely have some sort of
sell side involvement, even ifyou are working for an asset
owner like AMP Capital, where Iwent after CBA.
Or you know if you are workingfor a foreign asset owner like
like amp capital, where I I wentafter cba.
Or you know if you'd like anaustralian super or something
like that.
Um, there is obviously thatsell side trying to get people
(09:33):
to listen to your views, havingthat, having that brand
involvement but it's a littlebit different to a cba sell side
economics type of yeah, and Iguess for our listeners they're
the key difference, the way Ilike to see it, for buy-side
versus sell-side.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Buy-side you're using your research for internally
investing, whereas sell-side,that research is used for
external, to try and engage theexternal market to use your
services.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, basically.
I mean, I think with economicsyou still obviously have, you're
still competing with othereconomists, so the lines are a
bit more blurred between buyside and sell side, but I think
that's a good way to describe it.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Yeah, and when you talk about working as an
economist, let's go back to whenyou first started, maybe
working as a full-time economistafter you finished your
rotations as a graduate.
What work is involved?
Like you know, we see.
You know headline, you know itmight be.
A&p predicts that interestrates.
(10:29):
The RBA drops interest rates by, you know, three times before
the end of 2025.
So what are you actually doing?
What research are you doing?
Just talk us through the basic.
What are some key macros thatyou look at?
I assume unemployment, you knowforecasting interest rates,
would it be GDP growth,population growth?
Can you talk us through thatplease?
Speaker 2 (10:49):
The beginning was really overwhelming because I
know, while I thought I waspretty good at economics, it was
very different to have thetheoretical economic knowledge
to applying that.
I didn't really have a goodunderstanding of the history of
the different indicators that wewere looking at, so the
beginning was very hard.
When I started, the main thingsI was doing would be things
(11:12):
like updating spreadsheets.
So when we got data releases,you know, updating all our
spreadsheets with the differentdata.
And times have changed sincethen.
Because of technology it's alot easier now to update data.
But back then it was a bit moremanual yeah, updating charts
that went alongside with thatdata and then trying to get an
understanding of the historicalmovements of what had happened
(11:32):
so I could basically write aresearch note.
So that was the aim that aftera few months of working on the
data and updating things andlooking at I wasn't involved in
forecasting.
Back then Our chief economistwas doing all of that.
But once I sort of got myhandle around understanding how
the data moves and what thedifferent components are,
because there are hundreds ofspreadsheets and when you look
(11:55):
at the ABS website there is 10,20, 30 different spreadsheets
for each indicator.
So you really have tounderstand each spreadsheet in
quite a lot of detail, you know.
Are you looking at seasonallyadjusted original trend data?
What are the analyticalcalculations that you're doing
on them?
Are you doing a monthpercentage change?
Are you doing a year percentagechange, three-month annualized?
(12:16):
Are you looking?
Are you summing things up?
So that was the beginning, justtrying to understand the data
and how it moved before theneventually, in a few months,
writing research notes, whichwas quite overwhelming.
There were a lot of red marksby my managers about the types
of things I was writing about,because they didn't make sense,
obviously, which was fine.
(12:36):
I was still trying to figure myway around it, but that's how
sort of the role evolved.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
And what have you most enjoyed about working as an
economist and how has itevolved to you know being the
deputy chief economist at AMPfrom graduate, I imagine you're
still looking at the sameresearch, same indicators, but
now it's more actually lookingforward and forecasting rather
(13:04):
than just looking at you knowpast data.
Is that right?
Speaker 2 (13:09):
I think the thing I've most enjoyed is
understanding the currentposition of the economy and
where we're at and then tryingto explain to people where we're
going.
The interesting thing aboutbeing an economist is in a lot
of other roles you might youknow you could be a manager and
(13:33):
actually have less experiencethan someone in your team.
So you could be, for example,30 years old and have people who
are 50 years old reporting toyou.
But with something likeeconomics or even portfolio
management, the more time you'vehad in the market, the more
experience you've had through.
That time in the market givesyou more seniority and more
clout because you've seen thecycles, and that's what's really
(13:55):
important to see the cycles ineconomics, seeing periods where
you've had high inflation, lowinflation, high growth, low
growth, different governmentpolicies.
That's actually what mattersbecause it helps you to
understand where we're going inthe future.
If you sort of understood thepast and how that's impacted the
data and that, I think, iswhat's been interesting is
(14:16):
having now that backgroundknowledge of how things have
evolved in Australia to givepeople some understanding of
where we're actually going intothe future and in terms of how
the role is involved.
Absolutely Now it's more around.
Well, one explaining to peoplewhere we're going and two
forecasting.
That's really the biggest partof my role is just to be right
(14:38):
on GDP, inflation, interestrates.
If you can get those threeright.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
And share markets, of course.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Yeah, of course, which all lead into one which is
ultimately investing.
So maybe can you share, I guess, an opportunity, a learning
opportunity that you've hadwhere you've put a forecast out
whether it be interest rates,property prices, gdp growth,
share markets where you havebeen incorrect, and I know it's
a forecast of GDP growth, sharemarkets.
(15:05):
Where you have been incorrect,and I know it's a forecast of
you know things change at thatpoint in time based on
information you have available.
That's the forecast you made,but has there been a time that
you can recall where you've madea forecast which has been a bit
off, and have you been able tolearn from that experience?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
So when we do our like, do our biggest forecasts
that go into like, we send themthrough the RBA, we send them to
Bloomberg, to Reuters.
They are a team forecast sothey would all get confirmed by
my boss, our chief economist, soI guess I can't say that.
You know, it's been my call.
(15:42):
It is always a team or an AMPview.
So, just keeping that in mind,we probably have been in the two
most recent periods where Ithink we read the market wrong.
One was during the pandemic,when we I mean the pandemic was
obviously sort of a verydifficult time to be in a
context, because we're changingour views all the time based on
(16:04):
new announcements from thegovernment and changes in health
policies and what COVID-19 isactually doing.
But we had quite a negativeview on the housing market, so
we thought that home prices,like a lot of people, would fall
by 15% in Australia based onthe weakness in GDP growth and
the uncertainty that we had ahigh unemployment rate.
(16:26):
So, yeah, we had quite anegative view on the housing
market at the time and what weunderestimated was the
government policy aroundimmigration and I suppose we
didn't really have much clarityas to what the government was.
And this was, I guess, likeafter the pandemic not really
during it.
So our view was that propertyprice growth would be quite weak
(16:47):
into the hiking cycle after thepandemic and we just
underestimated how fastimmigration would come back
after COVID-19 and that therewould be so much catch-up and
that would basically be the mainreason for why home price
growth was still so robust andso strong in the period after
COVID-19.
That was probably one of thebiggest misses that we've had
(17:13):
recently, because we were quitewrong on that and it was driven
by policy, which just shows youhow important some government
policies can be to determiningeconomic outcomes.
And then I guess part of thatas well we were quite early to
say that the RBA should becutting rates.
We've been saying the RBA cutrates in February.
(17:34):
We had been saying that theyshould be cutting rates since
about the middle of last year,so we were early to say that,
but at the same time we wereprobably too early.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
So I guess you might make the right call, but timing
can affect how correct that callis.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
And I guess some people would say, like the other
thing that you have to thinkabout as an economist is you
know who's more right someonethat says it first but is too
early, or someone that has theright date about it but says it
later.
So if someone was like we weresaying that the RBA should have
cut in November last year and wewere ahead of the market in
(18:12):
saying that, but someone whocalled the February meeting
right but just did it later thanus, are they more right than us
?
Speaker 1 (18:18):
Yeah, and also the question is what makes you think
the RBA is right, because theRBA don't always get it correct
either.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
They don't, and I guess that's also why I think
when people say this is the besteconomic forecaster, this is
the person that's got everythingright.
It's always in flux.
It's always changing.
What I think is important isgetting the peaks and the
troughs in the cycle and tryingto figure out when things are
going to turn.
That, to me, is most important.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Yeah, no.
Thank you for sharing that.
What do you believe are the twoor three most important skills
to be successful in yourposition?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Communication, yeah, but you can learn that because I
wasn't good at doing media whenI first started or talking to
clients, but you sort of justfigure that out.
Confidence is really importantAgain, something that you learn.
I was not confident at all whenI first started out, but you
sort of pick that up with moreexperience and you do have to be
(19:17):
analytical.
I mean, if you're notinterested in looking at data
and manipulating notmanipulating, but you know,
playing around with data andtrying to, you know, find new
ways of looking at things likewhether it's an indexation or
percentage changes, whatever itis we deal with a lot of data.
So if you're not interested indata, it's not the right type of
(19:39):
job for you.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
So understanding and being able to interpret it and
also communicate it withconfidence yeah, that's right.
At what point?
Obviously you've been an AMPdeputy chief economist, which is
pretty impressive becauseyou're quite young in your
career, it's fair to say.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
I'm young.
I'm younger than I look.
Sorry, sorry, I'm older than Ilook.
That's what I meant.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Well, I don't know about that, and you've obviously
learned a lot and come a longway.
So what advice would you giveif you know, looking back at you
as a 20-year-old or 22-year-oldand I did see that you did I-
was just thinking about that Iwas literally just thinking
about that.
But if someone is a 22-year-oldand there's not many women in
financial services and there'snot many senior economists
(20:26):
female, economists, there's alot more now than there used to
be.
And it has evolved and I think Ican think of a couple at the
moment.
But what advice would you giveand I don't want to be female
specific, but obviously ourindustry within financial
services is probably 70% malesand 30% females what advice
would you give to someone thatmight be studying a commerce
degree?
Or someone that's in year 11and studying economics?
(20:50):
What advice would you give themat the start?
Or what advice would you giveyourself as a 17-year-old?
Speaker 2 (20:58):
For me.
I wished that I was more on topof what was going on at the
time when I was studyingeconomics in the actual
economics world.
So I wish that I was moreacross what the Economist was
writing about.
And I did try to read theEconomist a little bit.
But, to be honest, the way thatthe Economist writes, I think
you have to know what's going onto be able to read it.
(21:19):
Like they don't write in a waythat's just clear for people to
understand and economists canuse a lot of jargon.
So I hope that in the way thatwe write, or the way that I
write, is able to be read byanyone.
If you're an advisor, you canread it, and that's most of our
clients.
If you're a uni student, youcould read it.
If you're a high school student, you could read it and
understand it.
(21:39):
If you're a portfolio manager,it will still be interesting to
you.
There are obviously some thingslike some more technical things
that might be more suited tosome specific people, but I
think just reading a lot aboutwhat's going on at the time.
So the Fin, the Economist, ourpublications.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
Yeah, well, let's talk about your podcast, because
you do have a podcast, we do,yeah, which is very popular.
So what's the name of yourpodcast?
Speaker 2 (22:04):
The podcast is called Simplifying Investing and it's
with Shane Oliver myself.
Shane Oliver, our chiefeconomist, then there's me and
then there's another girl calledMe Boy, so it can be confusing
me and me.
So there's three of us in ourteam and we sort of share the
podcast around and we just talkabout what's going on in markets
(22:25):
, what we think is important ineconomics and sort of more of
like an educational explainer,sometimes at the end about you
know, if people talk about arecession, what does a recession
actually mean?
Or, like tariffs, what is atariff?
Speaker 1 (22:35):
how is it actually implemented?
That sort of thing Very topicalat the moment tariffs with Mr
Trump, or maybe just Mr Tariffman.
Yeah, or maybe just anegotiation tool, so, and our
listeners can also listen toyour podcast through, I assume,
the main stream.
Yeah, the main channels, yeah,and then you also do some
writing publications.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
So you can talk to me about that as well.
So our publications I meanthey're meant for media and our
clients, but we do publish somethings.
Actually, all of ourpublications are available on
the AMP website.
So Shane publishes Oliver'sInsights, I publish Econocytes.
(23:15):
Some of them we publish on ourLinkedIn as well, so you can see
that on our pages there.
And those are always about.
We write a weekly.
We write about the data thatcomes out.
So say, there's inflation datacoming out this Wednesday I'll
write about the inflationfigures and try and figure out
what that means for the RBA.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
Yeah, so a good thing if you are.
You talked about if you are an18-year-old or a 20-year-old to
learn about what's happening inmarkets and economics and
finance what's happening inmarkets and economics and
finance.
Obviously, reading yourfollowing you on LinkedIn and
reading your econocytes that youpublish would be a good way to
learn.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Yeah, I mean it gives you a good understanding of
what's going on.
I think the RBA website is alsoamazing to give you a very
broad understanding of what'shappening in the economy.
They publish their statement onmonetary policy once a quarter.
It sort of gives you aperspective on every single part
of the economy.
It is a bit long and it can bea little bit dry and a bit
technical.
(24:13):
If you're not in the economicsindustry it might be a bit
technical for you, but I thinkit still gives you a really good
understanding of actuallywhat's happening in the economy.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
Yeah, well, there's a lot for us, for our listeners,
to take away from thisconversation and mindful of your
time, deanna, but thank youvery much and Sienna will make a
note of a link to your podcastas well, and thank you very much
for coming on the podcast.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Thank you, it's been a pleasure.
Thank you, cheers.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Disclaimer disclaimer .
This podcast exists forinformational and entertainment
purposes only.
The personal opinions of thespeaker and guests do not
represent the view of any otherparty.
If this recording containsreference to financial products,
that reference does notconstitute advice nor
recommendations and may not berelied upon.
Welcome to Finance Friends with Fabian, where we
give our listeners anopportunity to be a part of our
conversation with financialservices industry leaders, hear
their stories, the challengesthey've overcome and the
invaluable advice they have foranyone interested in the
financial world.
Keep up to date with us byfollowing Finance Friends
podcast on Instagram and TikTok.
(00:27):
Welcome to Finance Friends withFabian podcast.
And today we have Diana Mussina, the Deputy Economist at AMP.
Sorry, deputy Chief Economist,is that right?
That's right.
Well, welcome.
How are you?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
today.
Thank you, fabian.
Thanks for having me on, I'mgood.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
That's good and well.
You've achieved so much alreadyin your career, so it'd be good
to maybe take us back to thebeginning.
So you did a finance degreefinance, accounting and
economics at uni.
Is that right?
Speaker 2 (00:58):
I did commerce and economics at the University of
New South Wales, so it was adouble degree that was offered.
I'm not sure if it's stilloffered anymore, but it was
actually one of the only unisthat offered that combination.
I really loved economics inhigh school but I thought that
commerce was sort of a bitbetter for the working life
because I wasn't like a lot ofpeople.
(01:18):
Probably I didn't really know,you know what what economists
did, if I could really be aneconomist, what actually
involved.
I just knew that I really likedit, so it was a good.
It was a four-year degree.
It was a really good sort of.
It gave me a really goodunderstanding of both the
financial aspects of things, butthen also my love for economics
.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Yep.
So where did the love foreconomics start?
Like what made you decide tostudy economics in year 11,?
Speaker 2 (01:43):
I assume yeah to be honest, I'm not actually sure I
did, I just think I took anatural liking to it.
I mean I always liked maths,but I wouldn't say I was like a
gun at maths or anything.
I mean my extension mathsteacher would probably tell you
that you know I still had a lotof trouble with maths.
I wouldn't say I was verynatural at it, but I really
(02:05):
liked it and I worked quite hardat it.
And I did business studies aswell.
We did have in year 9 and 10 wehad like an additional subject.
It was a I can't remember whatit was called, but it was
basically some sort of likecommercey type of subject about
like how businesses work, abouthow the world works, and I
thought that would sort of be avery natural step towards
(02:28):
economics.
So I think I always just reallyenjoyed trying to figure out
how things work in terms of howindustries and businesses fit
into the world, and it was justquite natural for me.
I wasn't particularly good atscience, sort of everyone in my
family is a scientist, basically, except for me.
I just was never good atscience.
Everyone in my family is ascientist, basically, except for
me.
I just was never good at it, soI just thought that it was just
(02:49):
something that I was naturallygifted at.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, so then from there you studied and you
finished your degree doubledegree, was it, or just?
A double degree and then youjoined CBA as a graduate program
.
That's right, yeah, so tell mea bit about that?
What did you as part of therotations?
What did you do at CBA?
Speaker 2 (03:10):
So when I was in my last year of uni, like a lot of
people, I basically applied to alot of different internship
programs.
I applied for everything Icould find any entry level, any
graduate programs and I got afew interviews and CBA was one
of them and the interviewprocess I felt it was.
I just felt like it was areally good fit.
So when they offered me therole I instantly said yes.
(03:33):
So it was in the InstitutionalBanking and Markets Program,
which looks a little bitdifferent now at CBA, but
basically there were rotationsoffered in like the consumer
side, so the actual consumer,the institutional banking side,
but from like the consumer pointof view or the business point
(03:53):
of view, I did a rotation in theequities research team which
doesn't exist anymore.
but then I did a rotation inclient relationships and I can't
remember where I did my lastrotation now it's been so long
ago.
But yeah, you know the whole.
The experience was really good.
(04:13):
It was a year and I got tolearn different parts of the
business, and when I did theequities research rotation, that
was how I started to get toknow the economists and the
economics team, and so Ibasically lined up a rotation
for myself in the economics teamand that was actually my last
rotation, of course.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
Well, that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
But yeah, I lined that one up because they hadn't
had a.
I don't think that they had hada graduate for a long time in
that team if ever.
They hadn't ever had a femalegraduate in that team not for
many, many years, so it wasquite fresh for them.
But ever since then I thinkthat they've had many, many more
graduates in that team.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
So when you talk about institutional banking and
markets, let's touch on theresearch piece.
So what were you doing?
Were you researching individualcompanies?
Yeah, Were you supporting asenior research analyst and took
me through what was I don'tknow?
It was a few years ago.
Yeah, it took me through thatprocess because we have had some
portfolio managers on beforeand seen you got an early start
(05:12):
to that, but you decided to godown the economics route or
becoming an economist, and,keeney, what did you do and what
did you enjoy about that?
And then maybe let's touch onalso the economist part and what
made you go down that pathway.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
So that part of the business doesn't exist anymore
at CBA, but it's basically theequities research division that
you would have at an investmentbank.
So there were differentanalysts that would cover
different stocks.
I was in the small caps team atthe time when I was rotating
that.
That was my first rotation andyou would be looking at a
company bottom up.
You would be meeting withmanagement, cfos and CEOs trying
(05:48):
to figure out the company'sbalance sheet, their income
statement, their cash flowstatement, basically trying to
give a target for the cash priceso that the clients could
either buy or sell or hold thatparticular stock.
So we had that equitiescapability as well.
That was actually doing thetrading of those equities.
So my role as a graduate wouldbe to help build up those
(06:09):
spreadsheets, put in the numberswhen reporting season came out,
but I don't really know why I?
didn't love it.
I just don't think I fit in tothat style, to that analyst sort
of role that you normally.
I think it did have a very sortof old school analyst,
(06:30):
investment banking type ofattitude in the division.
I just didn't really fit intoit.
But when I met the economicsteam I instantly loved the work.
I wasn't really interested intrying to understand how a
company worked and looking atbalance sheets and cash flow
statements and looking at thatbottom-up.
I love doing bottom-up analysisof the economy but it's quite
(06:53):
macro when you're thinking aboutwhat an economist does in that
type of role, rather than tryingto forecast individual business
investment components of thatparticular company.
It's quite specific and I thinkI always like the broader
picture.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Yeah, in Australia and maybe this is changing.
But from when I my experienceworking in financial advice and
wealth management, we are verymuch bottom-up focused and stock
specific and I think globallyit's more you know top-down and
macro focus.
I think that is evolving inAustralia.
But yeah, it's interesting, yousay that and so, and then you
(07:33):
moved into, you know, working.
So you finished your graduateand so then you moved into
working.
So you finished your graduateprogram and then you started
working as an economist.
Was that your title at CBA?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Yeah, it was.
It was economist, I think.
There were lots of differentlayers, but I'm pretty sure it
was economist and I worked inthe economics team for about
four years afterwards, yeah.
And then the opportunity cameup at AMP so I moved over to the
funds management side becausethe CBA economic side was
sell-side research.
(08:03):
So, being a macroeconomist, butsell-side.
When you say sell-side,basically it means that you are
competing with other economiststo sort of sell your views to
the market.
So you would try and be, youknow, the person that people
would listen to, both from abrand point of view, but then
also you know to want to dodeals with CBA or trade with CBA
or using CBA, basically as,like your trading partner, I
(08:28):
would sit on.
The economics team used to siton the trading floor, so on
market, so we would be aroundpeople making decisions on
currency spot desk, thecommercial desk.
It was a very fast-pacedenvironment and it looks quite
different now, I think, becauseof some of the regulations that
have evolved in markets and alsowith research and MIFID rules
(08:51):
and all those types of things.
So actually the economics teamdon't even sit on the market's
trading floor anymore.
They're sort of in their ownbubble, research bubble.
But then I moved into AMP.
I wanted to get exposure to thefund side or the buy side.
Basically it means that you arethe asset owner ultimately and
you're making decisions aboutwhere to invest different assets
(09:12):
.
So I guess economists stilldefinitely have some sort of
sell side involvement, even ifyou are working for an asset
owner like AMP Capital, where Iwent after CBA.
Or you know if you are workingfor a foreign asset owner like
like amp capital, where I I wentafter cba.
Or you know if you'd like anaustralian super or something
like that.
Um, there is obviously thatsell side trying to get people
(09:33):
to listen to your views, havingthat, having that brand
involvement but it's a littlebit different to a cba sell side
economics type of yeah, and Iguess for our listeners they're
the key difference, the way Ilike to see it, for buy-side
versus sell-side.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Buy-side you're using your research for internally
investing, whereas sell-side,that research is used for
external, to try and engage theexternal market to use your
services.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, basically.
I mean, I think with economicsyou still obviously have, you're
still competing with othereconomists, so the lines are a
bit more blurred between buyside and sell side, but I think
that's a good way to describe it.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Yeah, and when you talk about working as an
economist, let's go back to whenyou first started, maybe
working as a full-time economistafter you finished your
rotations as a graduate.
What work is involved?
Like you know, we see.
You know headline, you know itmight be.
A&p predicts that interestrates.
(10:29):
The RBA drops interest rates by, you know, three times before
the end of 2025.
So what are you actually doing?
What research are you doing?
Just talk us through the basic.
What are some key macros thatyou look at?
I assume unemployment, you knowforecasting interest rates,
would it be GDP growth,population growth?
Can you talk us through thatplease?
Speaker 2 (10:49):
The beginning was really overwhelming because I
know, while I thought I waspretty good at economics, it was
very different to have thetheoretical economic knowledge
to applying that.
I didn't really have a goodunderstanding of the history of
the different indicators that wewere looking at, so the
beginning was very hard.
When I started, the main thingsI was doing would be things
(11:12):
like updating spreadsheets.
So when we got data releases,you know, updating all our
spreadsheets with the differentdata.
And times have changed sincethen.
Because of technology it's alot easier now to update data.
But back then it was a bit moremanual yeah, updating charts
that went alongside with thatdata and then trying to get an
understanding of the historicalmovements of what had happened
(11:32):
so I could basically write aresearch note.
So that was the aim that aftera few months of working on the
data and updating things andlooking at I wasn't involved in
forecasting.
Back then Our chief economistwas doing all of that.
But once I sort of got myhandle around understanding how
the data moves and what thedifferent components are,
because there are hundreds ofspreadsheets and when you look
(11:55):
at the ABS website there is 10,20, 30 different spreadsheets
for each indicator.
So you really have tounderstand each spreadsheet in
quite a lot of detail, you know.
Are you looking at seasonallyadjusted original trend data?
What are the analyticalcalculations that you're doing
on them?
Are you doing a monthpercentage change?
Are you doing a year percentagechange, three-month annualized?
(12:16):
Are you looking?
Are you summing things up?
So that was the beginning, justtrying to understand the data
and how it moved before theneventually, in a few months,
writing research notes, whichwas quite overwhelming.
There were a lot of red marksby my managers about the types
of things I was writing about,because they didn't make sense,
obviously, which was fine.
(12:36):
I was still trying to figure myway around it, but that's how
sort of the role evolved.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
And what have you most enjoyed about working as an
economist and how has itevolved to you know being the
deputy chief economist at AMPfrom graduate, I imagine you're
still looking at the sameresearch, same indicators, but
now it's more actually lookingforward and forecasting rather
(13:04):
than just looking at you knowpast data.
Is that right?
Speaker 2 (13:09):
I think the thing I've most enjoyed is
understanding the currentposition of the economy and
where we're at and then tryingto explain to people where we're
going.
The interesting thing aboutbeing an economist is in a lot
of other roles you might youknow you could be a manager and
(13:33):
actually have less experiencethan someone in your team.
So you could be, for example,30 years old and have people who
are 50 years old reporting toyou.
But with something likeeconomics or even portfolio
management, the more time you'vehad in the market, the more
experience you've had through.
That time in the market givesyou more seniority and more
clout because you've seen thecycles, and that's what's really
(13:55):
important to see the cycles ineconomics, seeing periods where
you've had high inflation, lowinflation, high growth, low
growth, different governmentpolicies.
That's actually what mattersbecause it helps you to
understand where we're going inthe future.
If you sort of understood thepast and how that's impacted the
data and that, I think, iswhat's been interesting is
(14:16):
having now that backgroundknowledge of how things have
evolved in Australia to givepeople some understanding of
where we're actually going intothe future and in terms of how
the role is involved.
Absolutely Now it's more around.
Well, one explaining to peoplewhere we're going and two
forecasting.
That's really the biggest partof my role is just to be right
(14:38):
on GDP, inflation, interestrates.
If you can get those threeright.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
And share markets, of course.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Yeah, of course, which all lead into one which is
ultimately investing.
So maybe can you share, I guess, an opportunity, a learning
opportunity that you've hadwhere you've put a forecast out
whether it be interest rates,property prices, gdp growth,
share markets where you havebeen incorrect, and I know it's
a forecast of GDP growth, sharemarkets.
(15:05):
Where you have been incorrect,and I know it's a forecast of
you know things change at thatpoint in time based on
information you have available.
That's the forecast you made,but has there been a time that
you can recall where you've madea forecast which has been a bit
off, and have you been able tolearn from that experience?
Speaker 2 (15:22):
So when we do our like, do our biggest forecasts
that go into like, we send themthrough the RBA, we send them to
Bloomberg, to Reuters.
They are a team forecast sothey would all get confirmed by
my boss, our chief economist, soI guess I can't say that.
You know, it's been my call.
(15:42):
It is always a team or an AMPview.
So, just keeping that in mind,we probably have been in the two
most recent periods where Ithink we read the market wrong.
One was during the pandemic,when we I mean the pandemic was
obviously sort of a verydifficult time to be in a
context, because we're changingour views all the time based on
(16:04):
new announcements from thegovernment and changes in health
policies and what COVID-19 isactually doing.
But we had quite a negativeview on the housing market, so
we thought that home prices,like a lot of people, would fall
by 15% in Australia based onthe weakness in GDP growth and
the uncertainty that we had ahigh unemployment rate.
(16:26):
So, yeah, we had quite anegative view on the housing
market at the time and what weunderestimated was the
government policy aroundimmigration and I suppose we
didn't really have much clarityas to what the government was.
And this was, I guess, likeafter the pandemic not really
during it.
So our view was that propertyprice growth would be quite weak
(16:47):
into the hiking cycle after thepandemic and we just
underestimated how fastimmigration would come back
after COVID-19 and that therewould be so much catch-up and
that would basically be the mainreason for why home price
growth was still so robust andso strong in the period after
COVID-19.
That was probably one of thebiggest misses that we've had
(17:13):
recently, because we were quitewrong on that and it was driven
by policy, which just shows youhow important some government
policies can be to determiningeconomic outcomes.
And then I guess part of thatas well we were quite early to
say that the RBA should becutting rates.
We've been saying the RBA cutrates in February.
(17:34):
We had been saying that theyshould be cutting rates since
about the middle of last year,so we were early to say that,
but at the same time we wereprobably too early.
Speaker 1 (17:45):
So I guess you might make the right call, but timing
can affect how correct that callis.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
And I guess some people would say, like the other
thing that you have to thinkabout as an economist is you
know who's more right someonethat says it first but is too
early, or someone that has theright date about it but says it
later.
So if someone was like we weresaying that the RBA should have
cut in November last year and wewere ahead of the market in
(18:12):
saying that, but someone whocalled the February meeting
right but just did it later thanus, are they more right than us
?
Speaker 1 (18:18):
Yeah, and also the question is what makes you think
the RBA is right, because theRBA don't always get it correct
either.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
They don't, and I guess that's also why I think
when people say this is the besteconomic forecaster, this is
the person that's got everythingright.
It's always in flux.
It's always changing.
What I think is important isgetting the peaks and the
troughs in the cycle and tryingto figure out when things are
going to turn.
That, to me, is most important.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Yeah, no.
Thank you for sharing that.
What do you believe are the twoor three most important skills
to be successful in yourposition?
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Communication, yeah, but you can learn that because I
wasn't good at doing media whenI first started or talking to
clients, but you sort of justfigure that out.
Confidence is really importantAgain, something that you learn.
I was not confident at all whenI first started out, but you
sort of pick that up with moreexperience and you do have to be
(19:17):
analytical.
I mean, if you're notinterested in looking at data
and manipulating notmanipulating, but you know,
playing around with data andtrying to, you know, find new
ways of looking at things likewhether it's an indexation or
percentage changes, whatever itis we deal with a lot of data.
So if you're not interested indata, it's not the right type of
(19:39):
job for you.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
So understanding and being able to interpret it and
also communicate it withconfidence yeah, that's right.
At what point?
Obviously you've been an AMPdeputy chief economist, which is
pretty impressive becauseyou're quite young in your
career, it's fair to say.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
I'm young.
I'm younger than I look.
Sorry, sorry, I'm older than Ilook.
That's what I meant.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
Well, I don't know about that, and you've obviously
learned a lot and come a longway.
So what advice would you giveif you know, looking back at you
as a 20-year-old or 22-year-oldand I did see that you did I-
was just thinking about that Iwas literally just thinking
about that.
But if someone is a 22-year-oldand there's not many women in
financial services and there'snot many senior economists
(20:26):
female, economists, there's alot more now than there used to
be.
And it has evolved and I think Ican think of a couple at the
moment.
But what advice would you giveand I don't want to be female
specific, but obviously ourindustry within financial
services is probably 70% malesand 30% females what advice
would you give to someone thatmight be studying a commerce
degree?
Or someone that's in year 11and studying economics?
(20:50):
What advice would you give themat the start?
Or what advice would you giveyourself as a 17-year-old?
Speaker 2 (20:58):
For me.
I wished that I was more on topof what was going on at the
time when I was studyingeconomics in the actual
economics world.
So I wish that I was moreacross what the Economist was
writing about.
And I did try to read theEconomist a little bit.
But, to be honest, the way thatthe Economist writes, I think
you have to know what's going onto be able to read it.
(21:19):
Like they don't write in a waythat's just clear for people to
understand and economists canuse a lot of jargon.
So I hope that in the way thatwe write, or the way that I
write, is able to be read byanyone.
If you're an advisor, you canread it, and that's most of our
clients.
If you're a uni student, youcould read it.
If you're a high school student, you could read it and
understand it.
(21:39):
If you're a portfolio manager,it will still be interesting to
you.
There are obviously some thingslike some more technical things
that might be more suited tosome specific people, but I
think just reading a lot aboutwhat's going on at the time.
So the Fin, the Economist, ourpublications.
Speaker 1 (21:58):
Yeah, well, let's talk about your podcast, because
you do have a podcast, we do,yeah, which is very popular.
So what's the name of yourpodcast?
Speaker 2 (22:04):
The podcast is called Simplifying Investing and it's
with Shane Oliver myself.
Shane Oliver, our chiefeconomist, then there's me and
then there's another girl calledMe Boy, so it can be confusing
me and me.
So there's three of us in ourteam and we sort of share the
podcast around and we just talkabout what's going on in markets
(22:25):
, what we think is important ineconomics and sort of more of
like an educational explainer,sometimes at the end about you
know, if people talk about arecession, what does a recession
actually mean?
Or, like tariffs, what is atariff?
Speaker 1 (22:35):
how is it actually implemented?
That sort of thing Very topicalat the moment tariffs with Mr
Trump, or maybe just Mr Tariffman.
Yeah, or maybe just anegotiation tool, so, and our
listeners can also listen toyour podcast through, I assume,
the main stream.
Yeah, the main channels, yeah,and then you also do some
writing publications.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
So you can talk to me about that as well.
So our publications I meanthey're meant for media and our
clients, but we do publish somethings.
Actually, all of ourpublications are available on
the AMP website.
So Shane publishes Oliver'sInsights, I publish Econocytes.
(23:15):
Some of them we publish on ourLinkedIn as well, so you can see
that on our pages there.
And those are always about.
We write a weekly.
We write about the data thatcomes out.
So say, there's inflation datacoming out this Wednesday I'll
write about the inflationfigures and try and figure out
what that means for the RBA.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
Yeah, so a good thing if you are.
You talked about if you are an18-year-old or a 20-year-old to
learn about what's happening inmarkets and economics and
finance what's happening inmarkets and economics and
finance.
Obviously, reading yourfollowing you on LinkedIn and
reading your econocytes that youpublish would be a good way to
learn.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Yeah, I mean it gives you a good understanding of
what's going on.
I think the RBA website is alsoamazing to give you a very
broad understanding of what'shappening in the economy.
They publish their statement onmonetary policy once a quarter.
It sort of gives you aperspective on every single part
of the economy.
It is a bit long and it can bea little bit dry and a bit
technical.
(24:13):
If you're not in the economicsindustry it might be a bit
technical for you, but I thinkit still gives you a really good
understanding of actuallywhat's happening in the economy.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
Yeah, well, there's a lot for us, for our listeners,
to take away from thisconversation and mindful of your
time, deanna, but thank youvery much and Sienna will make a
note of a link to your podcastas well, and thank you very much
for coming on the podcast.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Thank you, it's been a pleasure.
Thank you, cheers.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
Disclaimer disclaimer .
This podcast exists forinformational and entertainment
purposes only.
The personal opinions of thespeaker and guests do not
represent the view of any otherparty.
If this recording containsreference to financial products,
that reference does notconstitute advice nor
recommendations and may not berelied upon.
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