Last Men Standing - Week 1 Preview Show - Last Men Standing: NFL Survivor Pool Podcast

Episode Transcript
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(00:20):
Welcome to Last Men Standing. It's our big Week 1 preview
show. We got comments rolling in
already from you guys. I can feel the excitement from
our audience already. We're going to talk week one of
the NFL season. But first, Jason, we got a
little bit of breaking news. Circa goes over the 15,000,000
mark today. No overlay.
We knew there wasn't going to bean overlay, but no overlay.

(00:41):
It's gone now. The big question is how high
does it go? Congratulations to Circa.
What was your reaction when you heard that news over 15,000,000?
Dude, great to be with you. You appreciate it always.
And when you just said congratulations to Circa, that
was my reaction, right? I love seeing no overlay there,
especially as we get to meet allthe people sort of behind the
contest and behind the sports book because it is a juggernaut

(01:04):
over there. I appreciate all you there you
are, Randy. Pixar live.
I love all the comments coming in.
We're really excited to be with you on this podcast.
Tony's going to break down sort of what we're going to do for
you here. But yeah, seeing it over
15,000,000, Tony, I think you got as good a chance as anyone
to collect that 15,000,000 this year.
I'm jumping out of my. Beauty of of week one, we all
feel like we have a chance, right?
It's like when you draft your fantasy team, everybody loves

(01:26):
their fantasy roster before week1, everybody loves their
chances, so I'm stoked. I feel like I've got as good of
a chance as anybody and I, I, I'm just ready for the season,
man. I'm very, very, very excited.
We're going to get into a mailbag here in a minute because
we got some questions from you guys.
We're going to go through every single game on the Week 1 slate
from a survivor pool perspective, give you our
insights, give you our, our thoughts of whether we're going

(01:46):
to use them or not. But if you guys can do me a
favor, hit the like button. If you're watching this on
Twitter, hit the retweet button.Make sure you subscribe to us on
YouTube. And yeah, let's do this, man.
I love it. So for those of you novices who
have maybe not been aware of a Survivor contest or an NFL
contest, right, you have to be in Vegas.

(02:09):
You have to enter this contest. It's $1000 at Circa.
You got to pick just a winner every week, but you can't pick
the same team twice. There you are, Gavin.
Appreciate the love, baby. But so just sort of a simple
breakdown for those of you novices out there.
So I can't get enough of this. What I'll say to you quickly,
Tony, I've always done the CircaMillion contest, picking five
games against the spread. My brother John Annick and I did

(02:31):
a show where we picked five games against the spread.
So that was always the angle at which I looked at this league.
I've never looked at Week 1 the way I've looked at it this week.
The Survivor perspective is completely different.
I will tell you I've never looked less at the the lines at
the gambling lines for NFL gamesin my life.
Never looked more at money lines.

(02:52):
Blown away as I talk to my brother and we try and map this
thing out. I can't wait to get into all of
it with you and talk to you fromsort of your side of the sharp
perspective. What 3 top 40s for you in this
contest? 40s in circus survivory up in
the last four years. I didn't do it first year 2020.
Exactly. But we're going to get into all
sorts of stuff. So best way probably is to get

(03:13):
into the mailbag and anyone we appreciate you following us,
messaging us, whatever it is. I think I get the first message
here tone from the mailbag. First of all, Randy, real quick,
the bottom of the screen. Does this resonate with you,
Jason? Great show, guys.
I can't stop thinking about Circus Survivor.
That's week one. That's why I think a lot of
people are here watching right now, our audience, because none

(03:34):
of us can stop thinking about Circus Survivor.
It's a bit of an obsession this time of year, you know?
Well, and Tony, I don't mean to put you on the spot, but last
year the Cincinnati Bengals among other teams in week one,
right, there was carnage in thiscontest early last season,
right? So Week 1.
Any idea how many people in Week1 and two were gone from this
thing last year? Week 130 something percent were

(03:55):
out on the Bengals. Week 1 I want to say it was 33%.
People can Fact Check and by week 5 about 90% were gone.
By week five. It was an insane start to the
season. Be interesting to see how week 1
plays out this year man. So we're going to go through.
All right, Yeah. Play this.
What do we got? Oh, this is showing us Derek
Stevens. Shout out.
Derek Stevens surpassing 15,000,000.

(04:17):
There's Benson there, too. He.
Interviewed on his Twitter, he interviewed the guy who was the
15 thousandth entry, which is pretty cool.
So that's the guy that made it hit 15,000,000.
Before I get to Sean Stewart's question in the mailbag, what do
you think? Do you think it's going over 20
if you if I force you to guess without just on the spot?
It's a good question. Remember we had Benson on, I

(04:39):
believe it was Episode 2 of the season and he said it was a
small underdog. He said plus 125 or plus 120.
We have to set the odds on that.Yeah, that's right.
I, I, I know at the end of the year, last year, they were
getting like a million a day. So I'm going to get, I'm going
to put my guess at like 19.2 is just my, my guess right now.
Where it's going to end up, we'll see.

(04:59):
That'll work. We'll find a way to split that
up among some folks. So as we get into this mailbag,
you can be as brief on if you want to answer some of these
questions or as long winded because this particular question
right you are. We are going to get to these
games in more detail. Joseph Kelly only have to be in
Vegas to enter. Appreciate you clarifying,
Joseph, as I should have, right?Yes, you only have to be there

(05:20):
and then you can use a proxy service, which we'll get into
that a little bit later to make your picks for you on a weekly
basis. But the idea is you do need
someone to have boots on the ground to put these picks in
every week. All right, Yeah.
What's up, baby? Big, big screen of Buffalo Wild
Wings. There you go, Anthony.
Let's go. Appreciate you.
And I wonder if that's you wearing number 79.
If it if it is, that's a whole different conversation.

(05:42):
Let's go. All right.
Let's go so. So this mail back bag message
from Sean Stewart. Tony, this one's going to put
you on a spot in a way that's kind of funky given this game.
Hey, Jason, I have a question since I'm avoiding the Denver
Broncos in the survivor pool. Do you believe in Jacksonville
beating Carolina in Week 1? I know you'll get into it in
more detail. What can you say on that?

(06:03):
So out of the gate tone. We're going to get into it in a
lot more detail, but short answer I think is yes.
I think the Jags are a trustworthy team.
Of the teams that have point spreads below 5 points, there's
a cluster of them, right? That is one of the games that I
think is drawing a lot of attention.
And we're going to get into projections later.
Survivor Atlas did their projections this week, and you

(06:25):
can see where the Jags ranked just sort of on their
predictions. And I think the Jaguars are
going to be, you know, maybe 4 or 5%.
And I do think it's a good call when you consider future value
and all that that you have to think about when you make a
move. I do think the Jags are
trustworthy. I'll tell you a little bit more
why later. You know, and a lot of these
guys talk about zigging when everybody else zags.

(06:46):
So certainly the Broncos have been the biggest favorite on the
board here and there. I know there's some, I know the
Eagles are creeping, but Broncoshave been the biggest favorite
on the board. So I like our like Sean
absolutely trying to zig when everybody else could be zagging.
Certainly going to be a lot of entries on the Broncos,
certainly a great chance they win that football game too, and
I know we'll get to that tone you got.

(07:06):
I got a mail back for you. Yeah, this one is from I Hate
Spreads. First of all, what a great
Twitter handle. By the way, I hate spreads.
This is amazing for someone in Circa.
Survivor it's. So perfect, he said.
How does this make you feel in reference to the Eagles point
spread going up to 9 at Circa? It has settled back down to 8,
but it went all the way up to 9,he said.
How does that make you feel about using Philly and Survivor?

(07:29):
I know they're playing Thanksgiving, but what if
there's a significant injury to Hertz or Saquon?
They go down around that time. You got a safety net of having a
rebuy option if they lose. So for those of you who are new
to Circa Survivor, if you take anybody in that game, Dallas,
Philly or Kansas City and the Chargers, you can rebuy before

(07:50):
Sunday if you lose. So that is a nice perk.
It's a great perk to have a get out of jail free card if you
will. However, you do have to be in
Vegas or willing to get to Vegasreally quickly before the
Saturday deadline in order to take advantage of that.
But I like the point in the question where he brings up
Philly on Thanksgiving because that is the number one reason
why you wouldn't want to take Philly because they are the

(08:15):
biggest favorite on Thanksgivingright now.
I'll tell you this, if you take Philly, you absolutely,
positively better save yourself Kansas City and Washington for
Thanksgiving and Christmas. If you have two of those three
teams done by the time you get to the holidays, I think you're
going to be in some real trouble.
So I think it's an approach that's worth considering if you

(08:37):
have multiple entries and consider using that get out of
jail free card. But be careful and have some
backup plans for the holidays. I absolutely can't wait to talk
about these games and the fact that the Philadelphia game is
the first game out of the gate excites me very much.
You're very tapped into injuries.
Gosh, I wish I could be as tapped into injuries as you are
in the trenches as much as at the skill positions.

(09:00):
So when he references injuries to an injury that convert to her
to Barkley in my, I just want toquickly say in my opinion, you
know, gosh, man, that stuff's fluky.
It could happen in Week 2 or Week 14, but how do you sort of
handle that piece of that, that question it's.
A great it's a great question. First of all, Landon Dickerson
from the Eagles, that's a name to keep an eye on for Week 1.
Big offensive lineman. Is he going to play or not?

(09:21):
But it is impossible to accurately predict injuries in
circa Survivor, right? But we can do as best we can.
We can make note of things like you and I did when we had Grant
Cohn on our show a couple weeks ago, 49ers Insider and we talked
about how thin the 49ers are. Some teams are more adequately
prepared for injuries than others.
I think the Minnesota Vikings are team that can handle a lot

(09:42):
of injuries. They've got a lot of depth at a
lot of positions. The San Francisco 49ers left
tackle goes down, as we've already talked about on this
show, they're in trouble. So forecasting some of those
things, forecasting who are the injury prone players we all know
about to his concussion situation.
We all know about Matthew Stafford's bad back, right?
Micah Parsons is now getting injections before games.
Things like that are things to be aware of because if you can

(10:05):
use a get a Rams win, for instance, before Stafford goes
down and then he gets hurt in Week 4, that changes everything.
And that's a huge advantage for you moving forward in Survivor.
And that's a great point, right?The Stafford injury piques my
interest more than maybe something.
Were Hertz and Barkley it would be more fluky where Stafford's
old got something already lingering final mailbag and this

(10:27):
may come into discussion later when we talk about the
marketplace, which blew my mind when I heard about this for a
guy that plays against the spread.
It's from the the Twitter handleis at JQB 1515 Thunder up 15
can't watch live this week. We appreciate we know you'll
check us out. Can't watch live this week where
you address at what point in thecircus survivor you think

(10:49):
opportunities to monetize an entry become available.
Great question. Yeah, Yeah, it's a great
question. So I mean, first of all,
technically speaking, you could monetize an entry right now.
There's entries on the Survivor Sweat marketplace for over $1000
right now and the season hasn't started.
I saw somebody had a had a an entry for 2700 bucks.

(11:09):
Someone's trying to triple theirmoney before week 1 even starts.
I don't know how successful they're going to be.
I don't know if someone's actually willing to pay that.
But that's a quick answer to your question.
You can do it whenever you want.Now, I think a lot of it's going
to depend on how quickly this pool gets thinned out, right?
If we have another car learning situation like we referenced
earlier where 90% of the pool isgone by week 5, then certainly

(11:31):
at that point your entry is worth 40 grand.
You know, something like that. That's not a bad time to do it.
But I think this is a really subjective question.
We all have different bankrolls,we all have different risk
tolerances. That is going to come into play
as well. And we'll get into that more,
you can be sure, as the season goes on and even as this episode
goes on. But can we get to the football

(11:52):
games, please? Yeah, let's.
Do it, man, Let's do it. And Jason, I think there's some
people out there who I want to word this correctly.
I don't want to say they've beenlazy.
They've been busy this summer and haven't been able to keep up
with things like you and I have.And I think some people are
like, crap. I'm behind on my homework.
I need to watch Last Men Standing to give me some insight
and see what I might be missing.Make sure I don't have blind

(12:14):
spots before I put my pics in with my proxy on Saturday.
So I'm excited to be able to help share some of the stuff you
and I have been studying all summer long.
You can be sure you think it's an accident that I mean, as soon
as there was any chance of me getting in this seat to be able
to talk to you every week, I gobbled it up right away.
My goal is just to you know, I want to As we talk about your
entries, I want to be your girlfriend, not your podcast

(12:35):
host, right? As we talk about your entries,
I. Love it man, I can't wait dude
all. Right, go ahead.
Dallas at Philadelphia Week 1, you see our little point spread
at the bottom of the screen -410money line.
There's been some line movement in this game, Jason.
We saw it yesterday at Circa Go all the way up to 9.

(12:56):
There was a point where it was actually the highest line game
on the board over Denver, Tennessee.
So let's keep an eye on this line movement as we get closer
to the game tomorrow. That's going to be fascinating
to watch. Some things to consider in this
game, like I said, that the health of Landon Dickerson is
absolutely huge. Last season, the Eagles beat the

(13:16):
Cowboys both times they played them, 41 seven and 34 six.
Dallas didn't have Dak Prescott in those games, but Jason Dak
Prescott's not worth 30 points on a spread.
I think it's very relevant that Philly swept the floor with
Dallas last season and this Dallas offensive coordinator who
could only muster 13 points lastyear in two games, he's the

(13:36):
Cowboys head coach. So I think a pick on Philly is a
great pick. I would argue Philadelphia is
the most likely team to win in week one.
But the reason not to use them in Circa Survivor is those
holiday implications. So you got to make that decision
out there, guys. I can't make that decision for
you. I do think Philadelphia is a

(13:56):
very, very, very safe bet Week 1.
They're better in the trenches, way better offensive line, much
better defensive line. Cowboys can't stop, tush, push.
There's going to be a lot of extra juice in that stadium as
you brought up because the the Eagles are going to be raising
that banner. I love the Eagles money line.
I love, I love the Eagles to winthe game.
But do you want to use them withthe holiday implications?

(14:18):
What are your thoughts on that? You know the the holiday
implications are the fly in the ointment in this contest, right?
It's not, it's not 18 weeks, it's 20 weeks.
And as you map these contests out and Survivor Atlas is as
good a resource and there it is Mike Jones in the back.
We appreciate you. This is what I want to be
looking at right now. You got to save some of these

(14:39):
teams, right? So when Tony and I look at that
Thanksgiving slate, which is thethree games on Thursday and the
game on Black Friday, as we sit here today on September 3rd,
Philadelphia hosting Chicago maybe feels like the the best
bet on the board there. Now I can make an argument that
the Chicago Bears may be a more oiled machine at that point in
the season. Kansas City on the road,

(15:01):
depending on what you think of Dallas, may, you know, move the
needle a little bit. But those other two division
games, Green Bay at Detroit and Cincinnati at Baltimore.
So for me, in most in some of mymaps, you can be sure that
Philadelphia I was not considering using on any day
other than Turkey Day. So do I like them this Thursday
against Dallas? I do, right?

(15:23):
And you can be sure my brother John, he and I are in the
survivor together. We have 4 entries.
We'll get to that more. He likes Philly very much.
But I just want to, I don't evenwant to say play devil's
advocate, but I just want to paint a little bit of a picture
on the Dallas side. You know me well enough to know
that I'm a big intangible guy. I'm a big chemistry guy.
I'm a big plan for one another guy, Juice in the locker room

(15:43):
guy. And while I don't believe that
the Cowboys got better without Micah Parsons, I do believe
potentially forget the head coach.
I believe the players galvanizing around one another.
They got a great chance to put up a 30 burger potentially.
I understand how good Philadelphia's defense is.
But it is Week 1. They did just win the Super

(16:04):
Bowl. There are Milton Williams ain't
walking through that door, amongothers.
I'm not suggesting, you know, I'm not, I'm not running to the
window to play Philadelphia -9 but this is one of those spots
where it wouldn't totally shock me because I do believe you have
an opponent on the other side that has a great chance to put
up points on offense and could perhaps hang on defense.
So this game scares me more thansome others because in this

(16:26):
contest, at least at at this stage for me, I'm focused a
little bit on teams I may fade rather than teams to bet on.
And the Dallas Cowboys aren't yet out of the gate of team I'm
necessarily looking to fade. That's fair, Jason.
And to your point about this being a scary game, I wrote an
article over at Survivor Atlas and I broke down the profiles of
all the big favorites of five points or more who have lost

(16:47):
since 2020 in Week 1. And the division ones were
dicier. And I know there's a whole bunch
of research out there, pool genius that does this research
about how don't worry about taking big favorites who are in
the division. And that is accurate.
But week one since 2020, since we decreased these pre season
games down to three, these division big favorites and week
1 have been the diciest ones. So that's just something to

(17:11):
keep. It's not a reason to take a team
or not take a team, but it's it's a little piece of
information. I look at this as sort of a
constellation of data and there's a little piece of
information to keep in the back of your mind At recently,
division big favorites in week 1have struggled and this is a
division big favorite. I will say this, if if you're
right and I know you're not predicting a Cowboys upset, but

(17:33):
you're saying that they could betougher than we think.
If that happens and Dallas does win this game, what a Survivor
headline. All of the sudden, all of a
sudden you've got, according to Survivor Atlas, we think about
9% of the pool is gone. Now, if you're not in Survivor,
we won't. First of all, we won't know that
9% is gone. So we won't know till Saturday

(17:53):
after the game, but we can project that 9% will be all
gone. So if you're not in Survivor
yet, does that entice you to sign up knowing that 9% of the
pool is gone and knocked out? It's essentially an overlay
situation, if you will, right atthat point.
So, so the the ramifications of that would be huge.
And then it's like, OK, 9% got knocked out.

(18:13):
How many of those 9% actually decided to rebuy?
It would be fascinating if Philly did go down on Thursday.
And quickly, again for some of the beginners, if you're on
Philadelphia Thursday night and they lose Tony and you're in
Vegas, just quickly, what do youdo?
Yeah, you go to the window and order your proxy and you sign up
for a new entry. It is a new entry.

(18:34):
You cannot just call your proxy from New York and say hey, I
lost, I want to do that rebuy thing.
You actually have to go and get a new entry.
And you got to make a play on the Sunday games, right?
And Philadelphia is still in your back pocket to use on
Thanksgivings. Good point.
Good, very good point. Very good point.
It is a new entry. So you do still have

(18:55):
Philadelphia. Good call.
Now some people I don't recommend this this year, but
you could also do, I'm going to take Philly and the Cowboys and
guarantee yourself advancing. If you got deep pockets and
$1000 isn't anything to you, youcan guarantee that you'll have
life going into Sunday. Again, don't recommend it
because of the holiday implications etcetera, but it is
a play that's been that's been used in the past.

(19:17):
And we'll get to some selectionslater, but I will say no matter.
I gave a little Cowboys talk, Sirianni's four and O on opening
day. You can be sure.
I believe the Eagles will handletheir business raising the
banner, but in an odd way, Tony,I feel as though if Micah
Parsons was there, I might like Philly more, as crazy as that
sounds, because I feel like Dallas's shot to win this game

(19:39):
is sort of that shot in the darkbecause the injection of
randomness of this sort of MicahParsons situation, but I
digress. Yeah, these are men in the
locker room and and if I'm the Cowboys coach, the way that I'm
going to motivate them is everybody's saying we can't win
without Micah. Nobody's talking about Kenny
Clark that we just traded for, and I'd use that as motivation,

(20:01):
almost locker room material, if you will, in Week 1.
So it's an interesting angle. I like that, Jason.
So we moved to Friday night, SaoPaulo, Brazil on YouTube, Kansas
City Chiefs versus the Los Angeles Chargers.
And we will say, Tony, this showwill bounce around here and
there. Most of it's going to be from a
Survivor standpoint. So some games we'll have more to
discuss than others. Some games in Survivor, right?

(20:23):
I don't know how much time we'regoing to talk about Buffalo,
Buffalo, Baltimore, game of the week Sunday night.
I don't know how many entries will be on either side of that
game. But Friday night, Chiefs,
Chargers, talk to me. Chiefs, Chargers Friday night
Jason, I have 0 interest in the Chiefs in this spot because they
play on Thanksgiving, they play on Christmas.
I'd be shocked if there was double digits on the Chiefs.
I although maybe with a pool that large, maybe we'll see like

(20:44):
11 or 12, but this should be oneof the lowest selected teams of
the week. I had a moment earlier in the
week where I was deeply considering the Chargers and
then doing the whole rebuy thingif they lose because I think the
Chargers are live in this game. I've got to bet myself on
Chargers plus 3 1/2. I think they're going to be more
competitive than people think. I think there is a chance that

(21:06):
the Chiefs come out with a little bit of a Super Bowl
hangover and the Chiefs, excuse me, the Chargers don't have a
lot of future value. There's not a lot of great spots
to use the Chargers later in theseason.
They have no holiday games. So I'm thinking, hey, I'll be on
a bit of an island with the Chargers.
I'm not going to need the Chargers late in the season.
I'm going to feel like a king ifI can get to Week 2 using the

(21:26):
Chargers in week one. But the more that I've thought
about it, I've gone back and forth.
I'm like, I'll also feel like a dummy if the Chargers lose.
And I'll be like, what the hell?That's just where you brought up
outsmarting yourself and overthinking things.
The Chargers move might be an overthinking thing type
situation and I'm gonna I'm gonna keep myself in check
there. Especially for a 49ers fan that

(21:48):
doesn't need to lose Week 1 to Mahomes on any entry.
I mean, like you just don't needthat in your life.
But I do think that's a pick. That's I think that's a pick em
game. You know my brother John's
gonna. Do it.
Someone's gonna take charges. I promise you.
It's mindful. People will.
I guarantee it. I can get.
I agree. I agree.

(22:08):
My brother John keeps talking about Mahomes is going to be out
for blood and I believe the Chiefs are certainly a
championship team. I'm not running the window to
bet on the Chiefs. I like the Chargers plus the
three as well. I got nothing else on that game
as we move forward. Yeah, let's do a little break
here for Survivor Sweat. This show is brought to you by
Survivor Sweat. Of course, we love them on this
show. If you're in Circa Survivor, you

(22:30):
have to go to themarketplace@survivorsweat.com.
You can shop for entries that other people have registered or
sell a percentage of your entry.Get knocked out early and
suffering from FOMO? Head over to survivorsweat.com
today and see which entries are available for sale.
So real quick, Jason, on the subject of Survivor Sweat,

(22:53):
before we move on to the the Summer Games, I want to tell, I
don't know how much we've talkedabout this in the prior shows.
I think we've hinted at it, but Jason and I went ourselves over
to the Survivor Sweat Marketplace and Jason's got an
entry. So Jason essentially now has
four and a half entries, if you will.
We are going to share some of this entry with anybody else

(23:13):
that wants to buy it in the marketplace.
It's not in the marketplace right now.
The entry name is Champ. CHAMP.
And later in the season, if we're still alive, if we can
nurture this thing, if we can nurture this thing, if we can
nurture it, you guys can buy a piece of it.
And how cool would it? I don't want to sound like a
salesman here because we could also lose in Week 3, right?

(23:34):
But how freaking cool would it be if we could all win together
on this show and all of our bad ass listeners who enjoy this
show together, this awesome community that we've built.
We are on this same entry and wetake it to the end and can
celebrate together Week 18. That would be pretty cool.
Well, and if we're manifesting anything, anything, the team
entry name is Champ. Zach McConnell.
Fly up Friday to get my 2 entries in.

(23:54):
Let's go, Zach. So you know that 15,000,000 is
already going up thanks to Zach McConnell.
But then the name of the entry is Champ.
So I got this entry, but you canbe sure I'm bringing my guy Tony
in. So, yeah, I can't wait to see
who sort of joins us on this ride.
It is fascinating. And we'll talk more about a lot
of our entries and stuff, but I have some entries, Tony has some
entries, but this one is kind ofthe last men's standing entry.

(24:17):
And you can be sure nothing would give us greater pleasure,
right? We're going to break down those
glass walls of Wiesen in the circus sports book.
If we win this thing with champ.I mean, we're going to run the
whole place, by the way, speaking to run the whole place
and like follow at last men pod,Twitter and Instagram.
We should be at stadium swim going live a week from today.
Is that accurate, Tony? Yeah.

(24:39):
Thanks for reminding me, Jason. So every week we do this show
Wednesdays at 7:00 time slot that we're in right now.
Of course, next week it's going to be a little different.
We're going to go live at 10:30 AM Pacific Time.
And so help me out here. That would be 1:30 PM Eastern
Time from stadium swim from the cabanas over there.
So it's going to be a great show.
We're going to be right, right in the belly of the beast, if
you will. I can't wait.

(24:59):
And and remember that Earl Campbell jersey that we unboxed
from Episode 2 this season, Thatbeautiful.
I wish I had it next to me rightnow.
We are going to be giving that jersey away.
So come by, if you happen to be in Nevada, come by.
We're going to have a little bowl on our desk in the cabana,
Take a little piece of paper, put your name on there, put it
in the bowl and then we're goingto draw it out.

(25:21):
And someone in Vegas, this is the Week 2 show a week from
today. He's going to win that lovely
Earl Campbell jersey. I love it.
Assigned Earl Campbell Jersey will have a little bucket.
We'll also have a bucket of Tony's snack, some vegan snacks
there if you want to dabble in some of the stuff that Tony
likes to dabble in. But I have to say, as we move
into these 1:00 games, right, wewill be talking about this

(25:41):
Survivor sweat marketplace as itgoes on.
But as we move into the 1:00 games, I've never, week one has
never looked like this for me. I'm used to doing these
extensive NFL previews, previewing each game, looking at
every game against the spread. Now, my brother John and I do
have one entry in the million contest, picking five games
against the spread. But that's what we've always
done. So I've never looked at this

(26:02):
from a Survivor standpoint. Tony and I did work together
last season. You know, at one point he gave
out cheap weeks -410 they're -8 in the game, they don't cover.
I'm curious why he's giving out a money line of -410 as he
started to monetize everything in the Survivor.
So I'm very happy to sort of approach the NFL this week.
And in one way, I've done more research approaching Week 1 than

(26:23):
ever, and less in the same way. It's a totally different type of
preparation, you know? It is and, and for people that
watch the documentary The Quest for 14.2 million last year,
there were some very sharp people in there, people in the
betting community, names that you know, who are saying I'm a
professional better, I make money doing this and I haven't
made it past week 6 or whatever it was, you know.

(26:43):
So it is a very different skill set I'd say than picking games
against the spread for certain. I love it.
So as we go through these games,you know, in often times Tony
and I have done a lot of work. You might, I might look at
certain reasons why I might picka team, right?
Might give certain statistical breakdowns for different things.
But Survivor feels different, right?
I in a way, I've had my brother and I have 4 entries in the

(27:08):
Survivor contest and then one inthe million and we were sort of
four and then I got this other one with Last Men Standing.
And so for those 4 entries, I have a real good feel for what I
want to do with those 4 entries.My research doesn't change much
of it necessarily. You know what I mean?
When I take a noise, it might change them.
So Tampa Bay, Atlanta, I'll start out by saying 2 1/2 points

(27:29):
spread. I've seen it move a little bit.
I'm not touching this game in Survivor.
If this game was in Tampa Bay, Iwould be strongly considering
Tampa Bay as one of my plays in Survivor.
For I know in Survivor, I know that's neither here nor there.
I just ultimately probably lean Tampa in this game.
I'm not looking to play a road team Week 1.
I think there are great spots toplay Tampa Bay later in the

(27:50):
season. Atlanta is an enormous wild card
for me. I don't really believe in
Michael Pennix Junior. So ultimately for me, maybe lean
Tampa in the game, but this is astay away from a Survivor
standpoint for me across the board.
Yeah, I would agree. It's also a stay away from me.
A lot of injuries to keep an eyeon this one.
First of all. So the Falcons lose their right
tackle, Caleb McGarry, who's really good.

(28:11):
And Michael Pennix is a left-handed quarterback.
So that's his blind side tackle.That's the equivalent of a left
tackle on another team, right? So he goes down.
Tristan Werfs, the Bucs tackle is out.
I think the Bucs depth on the offensive line is a little bit
more prepared to handle an injury like this in the Falcons.
Bucks are also going to be without Chris Godwin.
We know that K dot in he's been practicing recently Bucks

(28:31):
starting tight end. So a lot of injuries to keep an
eye on. But besides your hesitancy about
the bucks in this game, let me give you another reason to not
use them this week. Future value purposes.
So from week 13 on, this is who the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play
from week 13 on. Tell me this isn't going to be a

(28:52):
team that you want to save in your pocket.
They play the Cardinals, the Saints and Falcons all at home.
And then Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers.
I'm going to say that again. Cardinals, Saints, Falcons,
Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers. That's a team that gives you a
lot of flexibility later in the season and is going to have
Chris Godwin back at that point and is going to have Tristan

(29:13):
Werfs back at that point. So I think the smart move here
is to save the Bucks. And keep in mind the Falcons
beat the Bucks twice last year. A lot of people think the Bucks
were a better team than the Falcons last year.
They probably were. But the Falcons beat the Bucks
twice last year. And for people who like the
emotional angles, I know there'ssome, you know, handicappers out
there who are going to roll their eyes and say, oh, you
know, look at the numbers, not the emotions.

(29:35):
I'm just going to throw this outthere.
He, Morris was fired by the Bucks in 2012.
He's the Falcons coach and he kicked the Bucks ass in two
games as an underdog last season.
And I think he's going to, you know, NFL coaches are preparing
for games 100% anyways, right? How can they prepare 110%?
But these guys got a motivational angle.
This is the team that fired him.He kicked their ass twice last

(29:58):
year. Makes the Falcons a little
little scary for me. Very well put, I couldn't agree
more. And anyone who caught Bill
Belichick debut as a head football coach.
They looked like world beaters on the 1st Dr. getting up 7
nothing. And then TCU puts up 41 straight
points. Week 1 sometimes can feel like
the beginning of a game to me, right that Week 1 is kind of

(30:18):
like the first quarter. Like I could see I've been in
that Atlanta Falcons building. I love that building.
Wouldn't shock me if Tampa Bay has a much better season, but
Atlanta finds a way to win Week 1 and things sort of, you know,
week I can I, I'm very excited to talk about Week 2 because I
think Week 1, there's such a wild card component to a lot of
these games. Yeah, Week 2 is fascinating, by
the way. I'm glad you sort of alluded to

(30:38):
that because there there is a lot to discuss there.
As we move on, let's do it, dude, Let's.
Do it for sure, and this is a big one.
A lot of people are eyeing this.Huge one.
This is a. Massive 1.
For sure, I'm almost afraid to talk to you about this one.
I'm going to give you. I have one thing in my notes for

(30:58):
this game and it's a note for myself and it says tune out the
noise. And I say that to myself from a
survivor perspective. So I guess if I may, I'll just
tell you quickly about this gamefor me.
The Bengals lost in Week 1 to the Patriots last year.
That game, we all know the storybehind that game.
I understand you and many other sharp people believe that the

(31:20):
Bengals defense could be worse than it was last year.
I I don't think it's going to beworse than it was last year.
I believe in Joe Burrow more than any quarterback in this
league. You talk about Joe Burrow seeing
more the field in the pre season.
Perhaps the I think it is the Bengals are acutely aware of
what they need to do to wake up Monday one and O and I think
they will. The Browns are a team I'm

(31:40):
looking to fade. Joe Flacco to me is not two
years ago magic Browns. So to me, I think the Bengals
find a way to get to 1 and O andweek 1 can be funky.
So I will tell you right now in my 4 entries, if my brother
doesn't want any of them on the Bengals, I might fly up to
Connecticut and try to convince him to do so.
I'm steadfast on the Bengals because I do believe they win

(32:03):
Week 1, despite I do think thereis some future value for them.
It's a fascinating team, Jason, because the the, the Bengals
boogeyman story in Week 1 is well documented.
They've talked about it in the Circus Survivor documentary.
And by the way, it's not just last season.
Zach Taylor has struggled in Week 1's since he became a head
coach and everybody knows it. So there is an argument out

(32:24):
there out there if you're looking for EV, if you're
looking for a team that not a lot of people are going to be
on, but still has a high point spread that going with the
Bengals makes sense. Because if you were in Survivor
last season, Jason, and you wereone of those 33% who went out on
the Bengals, you know how hard it is to click that button again
on the Bengals this season. There's trauma involved.
There's literal trauma involved.And I think there is an argument

(32:48):
that that could deflate the number, the Bengal less people
will be on the Bengals than should be on the Bengals
considering where the point spread is.
And that is a fantastic reason to take the Bengals.
But let me give you some reasonsnot to take the Bengals.
But this Browns defensive line is really good and not just
Miles Garrett. It is the strength of their
team. The Bengals offensive line is

(33:11):
not good. I don't know if you saw the
clips of them. They were getting laughed at on
Twitter in the preseason. Joe Burrow was running around
like a chicken with his head cutoff while the offensive lineman
were standing there and raising their hands up in the air.
So you got a strength versus weakness type situation which
could potentially come back and bite the Bengals.
But there's another reason not to take the Bengals Week 17.

(33:34):
I know it sounds a little funny to talk this far in the future,
but Week 17 there's no games with a point spread over 4
points. The Bengals are one of the
options in Week 17. They play the Cardinals in
Cincy. Probably a cold weather game,
right? So now if you're up there, I'm
going to monetize my entry, I'm going to sell it on
Thanksgiving, etcetera, etcetera.
I'm not worried about Week 17, OK?
If you want to win this thing, that could potentially be a

(33:56):
winning move where other people are having to trust Tennessee
against New Orleans Week 17 and you're feeling a little better
about Cincinnati Week 17 againstArizona.
So I would argue even if you think the Bengals are going to
win week one, there are a lot ofreasons not to use the Bengals
in Week 1. Great point.

(34:17):
And what I'll say to that, right, You have said ignore week
17 and 18, right? I'm trying to learn from my guy
Tony. And as I try to map these things
out, I'm like, oh, thank God, Tony told me ignore week 17 and
18. This is madness, right?
So I'm just messing with you a little bit there.
But your point is your point. Your point is very well taken
that the Bengals, I would bet mylife they're going to be playing

(34:38):
for something in Week 17, right?Even if they have a great
season, Lamar Jackson ain't going nowhere.
So I think they're going to be playing for something.
I think it's a great point. I agree with you.
So one of your 4, is that any chance if your brother's on
board, if you like it, you mightgo more than one on the Bengals
or or yes. And the reason being the point,
well, and to me, it's ironicallybecome a situation where maybe I

(34:59):
can zig when others are zagging on the Bengals.
And I, I, you know, for me, a lot of it's a play on Joe
Burrow, you know what I mean? Like Joe Burrow, you're going to
wake up Monday losing to Joe Flacco, you know, and I know
it's more complicated than that.Let let me read you a tweet real
quick. This is from Cleve TA for people
who don't know him, Cleve. Cleve is highly respected in the

(35:21):
analytics community on the sports betting analytics
community so he says Joe Burrow versus the Browns defense.
In his career, he has not generated an EPA in a game
versus the Browns that was higher than 35th percentile for
that season since 2020. Burrow has not produced the game
above his season average since week 7 in 2020.
Out of 59 regular season games since 2021, Burrows games versus

(35:44):
the Browns have ranked 35th, 40th, 48th, 51st, 57th and 59th
in EPA. Long story short, that's a a a
nerdy way of saying I say that nerdy.
I say that affectionately. That's a nerdy way of saying
that Joe Burrow has struggled against the Browns in his
career. Mightily, you know, Joe Burrow

(36:07):
is a big UFC fan. Maybe I should see if my brother
can send him a a direct message with this to try and light a
little bit of fire. I hope Zach Taylor, this has
crossed his wake, you know, because this wouldn't be the
worst thing for Joe Burrow to see.
But yeah, very well taken. Very well taken.
And let me say this, Jason, sorry, I'm going to jump in here
real quick. Those numbers go back to 2021.

(36:27):
How relevant are those games he played against the Browns in
2021? Not necessarily, but Jim
Schwartz has been the defensive coordinator in Cleveland for the
last two years. Those are four games right
there, right? And he had Joe Burrow hasn't
done that well against Jim, thatJim Schwartz defense in the last
four years. So I think that is relevant.
I think it's very, very interesting point to consider.

(36:50):
And I also think, you know, you pointed to a spot very late in
the year where the Bengals couldbe of use.
But if the Bengals are the team that I believe them to be, I
have tickets on them 21 to 122 1/2 to one to win the Super Bowl
because I like the. Value you love the Bengals all
right, I. Also like the value when you
look at some of these other teams, 6-7 to 1, I just, you
know, what am I really doing here?
So I just, and I do believe Jober, I believe he got to the

(37:12):
Super Bowl. I believe he will get back there
at some point. So I think there are things that
could change. But I do believe the Bengals are
going to be in certain games as the schedule and injuries shake
out where they are going to be amassive favorite at some point.
So that wanting to their future value to me regardless of how it
may look on paper. Now wanting to keep the Bengals
as a team to be able to use appeals to me greatly as well.

(37:34):
So I may hesitate for that reason too.
All right, one more thing because I we could probably talk
about this game for an hour, butlet me throw this out there.
Let me let me push back a littlebit.
I'm not trying to convince you to get off the Bengals because I
would feel terrible if I did andthen you didn't take the.
Bengals. No, I love it.
This is what I want. That's not what I want.
Is there a chance that you have some Bengals bias because you
like them so much for the season?

(37:55):
And I'm going to use myself as an example here.
Like, I like the Cardinals for the season.
I've got a ticket on Jonathan Gannon to win Coach of the Year.
I think the Cardinals are a playoff team, right?
And then I start thinking about how many of my entries I'm going
to go with the Cardinals. And I have to stop and be like,
hold on, I'm in love with the Cardinals.
Is this really about the match up against the Saints Week 1 or
is my bias creeping in? So is there a chance that your

(38:17):
bias is creeping in a little biton the Bengals?
Absolutely. I think I got a a helmet here
somewhere. Yeah, Yeah, we got a helmet
there somewhere at Jamarte's. Helmet.
No, the bias is creeping in. No, the sorry, there's a new
studio set up here. I don't know what's going on,
but the bias is definitely there100% and you can be sure 4
minutes in, I might be looking at that defensive front for

(38:39):
Cleveland saying what am I doing?
Right? So and, and also too, we sit
here on a Wednesday, right? You know, I if, if I play, if
I'm playing the Eagles tomorrow,I do need to submit all of my
entries, unless I'm right or do you not?
I know that. Maybe not all of them.
Not So that's a great question. In millions, you do.
And since that's your backgroundand that's what you're doing,

(39:01):
that's what you've been doing, it would make sense that you
would think that. But in Survivor, you just have
to submit your Eagles or Cowboysentries by Thursday.
So there you go. So so, so, so I do think by
Sunday maybe I will feel differently.
But no, I mean to me, you're right.
The match up component, I may leave that on the table a little
bit and say I believe in the Bengals this season.

(39:22):
The Browns are a team. I believe they're absolutely
going to be one of the worst in football.
I and to me, I just don't think they can keep up offensively, no
matter how good the Browns defense.
Maybe I think Burrow finds a wayto put a few touchdowns on the
board and I just don't think Cleveland does.
So, you know, to me it may soundlike a simple handicap.
Your points are well taken. Let's move on.
Next game on the board. Dolphins, Colts.

(39:42):
I think this one is fascinating,Jason, because I've heard
arguments on both sides. I've heard some people that I
respect say they like the Dolphins.
I've heard some people that I respect say they like the Colts.
And I think this one is going tohave we talked about survivor
Atlas's projections. I think these two teams might
surprise some people. I think there's going to be not
like 5% or anything like that, but I think there's going to be
a few more people on the Dolphins and Colts than people

(40:04):
think and. I can see the arguments for
both. For me, this is probably going
to be a stayaway game. There's the whole stat out
there. Colts are O nine and one in
their last week one games. Crazy stat, by the way.
Like that's insane that they haven't won a week one game in
10 years. I don't think it's relevant for,
you know, picking them or not inweek one this season.

(40:26):
Maybe the last two years is relevant.
Shane Steik and their head coach.
He's O and two in his last two years.
To me, that makes a lot more sense if you're going to base
your survivor pick off of a trend.
From a match up perspective, I think both of these secondaries
are really vulnerable. They're bad and I I could see a
very high scoring game. It's going to be interesting to
see whose offence is clicking. I kind of like Miami from a

(40:48):
match up standpoint, but what isgiving me pause is they've
looked terrible so far in their joint practices this season and
there's a little bit of locker room drama.
Maybe Tyreek Hill isn't happy. Maybe their head coach is in the
hot seat. There's the whole, you know,
the, the, the Colts owner passedaway and you know they're going
to do a big thing for him to start this game.
You talked about the emotional appeal of raising the banner in

(41:09):
Philadelphia. There's been a lot of emotion in
that building for the Colts. And so I think I'm going to stay
away. But I see the appeal because
like I said with the Chargers earlier, if you can get by with
the Colts or Dolphins through Week 1, you're going to be
feeling great because there's not a lot of future value at all
for those two teams moving forward.

(41:30):
They they could be teams that nobody would be surprised that
they had losing records by the end of the season.
Yeah, it it's certainly a layoffin survivor for me, Dog.
I, I do think what you said about the past defenses makes me
want to peek at Tua a little bit.
But I, I, I'm, I'm on record. I like Daniel Jones more than a

(41:51):
lot of people. And I don't like being in the
business to bet against JonathanTaylor when he's healthy.
He's really like in that top handful of backs in this league.
It's a good call. He's kind of forgotten, isn't
he? It's like you automatically
think Saquon, Bucky Irving's coming into the conversation.
You got Bijon, Jonathan Taylor gets slept on a little bit.
That's a good call. And he really changes the game

(42:12):
and sort of did and stretches down the stretch for that team.
All right, Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars.
I can't wait to hear you talk about this game because I've
heard you talk a lot about this game and I think you have strong
feelings on both of these teams.So I'll let you go.
Survivor implications Seasonal Talk to me.
Let me say this, This is one that at first I had no interest

(42:34):
in because I like both of these teams.
The more that I've dug into it, I'm really coming around to the
Jaguars and I think I'm probablygoing to have a couple of my 10
entries in my name on the Jaguars on Sunday.
Couple things to know about the game.
Jaguars left tackle, He Cuono didn't practice today recovering
from an appendectomy. That's huge.
Whether he plays or not, the left tackle is a really freaking

(42:55):
big deal. Both of these defenses are bad,
Jason. Like you can make an argument.
They're the two worst defenses in the league.
They're both probably bottom 5. So I think that's going to be
fascinating. I don't know if we have these
numbers to pull up or not on thescreen, but Baker Mayfield's
numbers against the Panthers last season.
Now remember, Liam Cohen was Baker Mayfield's offensive

(43:17):
coordinator. He played the Panthers twice
last season. He knows how to carve up this
defense. Baker Mayfield had five
touchdowns and a ridiculous completion percentage, 350
something yards in Week 17 against the Panthers.
Remember, this was the time where the Panthers were, were
good, right where people were like, oh, the Panthers have
turned things around. Liam Cohen carved up the

(43:39):
Carolina Panthers. He knows how to do that, so I
like his chances to do it in this game.
Eric Armstead and he's like 65, I think maybe even 66.
Defensive tackle. You got some big boys in the
middle of that defensive line. You got a short quarterback here
for Carolina and Bryce Young. I do think the Bryce Young hype
has gone a little too far. Yes, he did look good his last

(44:00):
few games last season. But the more I dug into the
numbers, I think there's a little bit of smoke and mirrors
there. I don't think, you know, Bryce
Young has turned things around that much.
And one more thing I'll say hereabout the Panthers, everybody
wants to talk about the Panthershave turned a new leaf.
You see what Bryce Young did at the second-half of last year.
Panthers have are a new team. They finished the season 2 and

(44:20):
5. Jason, I get it.
They played the Eagles tough. They played the Bucks tough.
They almost beat the Chiefs. But you have to have that killer
instinct. This isn't an ACS contest.
You got to win the game and the Panthers may not have what it
takes to win this game. So the Liam Cohen factor, I love
it. And one more thing here about
the Jags from Week 13 on. Tennessee Indy jets Denver will

(44:44):
be tough. Indy Tennessee if the Jaguars
are good, which remains to be seen.
But if the Jackson Jag Jacksonville Jaguars are a
winning team, that's three, that's five of their last six
games are going to be playable at the end of the season to use
them Tennessee Indy Jets Denver no Indy Tennessee.
So good reason to save Jacksonville, which is why I'm

(45:06):
not putting all my entries on Jacksonville.
You know what, This is why I wanted to host a show with you
and we got to talk about your entries, too.
But I wasn't considering Jacksonville.
And now you can be sure I most certainly AM for a lot of the
reasons you laid out quickly. Carolina, we know they're banged
up. A receiver, right?
Jalen Coker uninjured reserve they you know feeling's back in
Minnesota, right? So Ted McMillan as their number

(45:28):
one receiver. I don't love that receiving
court Ted McMillan, Xavier Leggett, David Moore as your top
three receiver. I just.
I and Hunter Renfro was cut, andthen they just brought him back
because they had to out of desperateness, yeah.
So as much as I do believe in Canales more than most and think
maybe that Bryce Young might be OK in this league, I think
that's a very good point. And I think I'm going to give
them a look because they're justsuch a wild card to me.

(45:49):
But your point's also well takenthat if they are good, there
could be some spots to use them later on.
And keep an eye on the weather. Let's see how hot and humid it
is in Jacksonville. I mean, Carolina is also a
pretty hot and humid place. It's not like it's a team coming
from Minnesota or something. But wouldn't be surprised to see
the Panthers players get a little little more gas in that
game than the Jacksonville players were a little more used
to it. All right, so moving on, Vegas

(46:11):
Raiders at the New England Patriots.
I'm a Patriots fan, for those ofyou who don't know, born and
raised in the New England area. And what I'll just say here, if
you recall, we were on radio rowfor the at Circa Sports couple
weeks back and we met a guy fromNew England.
What a great Boston accent he had.
By the way, I'm forgetting his name.
I apologize. He had a tremendous, tremendous
Patriots tattoo, but I don't know.

(46:34):
We'll talk about how much you like to play on your own team,
the 49ers, but I don't have muchof an appetite.
I mapped out some things. My brother was looking at some
of my maps. He's like, where are the
Patriots? I'm like, I don't know what to
expect from this team. A lot of people like the
Patriots. And this guy we met at Survivor,
he's doing 3 entries and he was bullish on the Patriots week
one. I'm not I'm used to looking at
teams I'm looking at used to looking at games with point

(46:55):
spreads, right? So I, when I saw the three
points for the Raiders gobble itup, right?
Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, familiarity with one another and
some veterans. Max Crosby is always a problem
on that side of the ball. And the Patriots still very
young. Drake May, I think just turned
23. They're super young.
Were really bad team last year. I understand.
It's literally like the other side of the coin with Mike

(47:16):
Vrabel juxtaposed to Jerrod Mayo.
But that week one game I'm not looking to play in any way,
shape or form. You and I have talked about
these teams. I know you'll get in here.
I expect the Raiders to be a little bit better than people
think. I'm very bullish on the New
England Patriots this season, but that doesn't mean I'm too
bad. There we go.
That's when we went to watch MacJones in Atlanta.
That was a mistake. And I knew by the way, I knew by

(47:38):
the way Mac Jones rookie year that they were the worst nine
and four one seed the New England Patriots of all time.
But anyway, this is a layoff forme.
Eileen taking the points with the Raiders.
Hear your thoughts. One thing to consider, if you
take the Patriots, there's not going to be a lot of people on
them. So it's it's not quite an
island, but it's a, a mini island if you will.

(48:01):
So it checks that box. I think the Patriots have sneaky
future value later this season. If you believe the Patriots are
good, let's just assume for the moment the Patriots are a 910
win team. Might be a stretch for some
people, but if you believe that,they play Carolina, they play
New Orleans, they play Tennessee, they play Cleveland,
they play The Jets twice, they play Miami twice, and they play

(48:24):
the Giants. You really want to burn New
England Week one, guys, I get it.
You want to be on an island, I get it.
But that's a lot of future valuemoving forward.
Now, if you do use the Patriots and you win and the Patriots end
up stinking this year, it's a great play.
So maybe whether you decide if you're going to use the Patriots
or not, Week 1 should be based off of how good you think the

(48:46):
Patriots are going to be moving forward.
It's almost, you'd think becauseyou like the Patriots, you think
they're a good team that you should use in Week 1.
But you almost have to like, twist your mind a little bit and
be like, actually the better move if I like the Patriots is
to save them. Great point, I agree.
The other thing to keep an eye on for this game is Christian
Gonzalez didn't practice today. Stud cornerback for the

(49:08):
Patriots. If Christian Gonzalez plays,
maybe I could put an entry on the Patriots.
It'd be a little bit of a stretch.
I do have one last entry that I'm really trying to figure out
what I'm going to do with without Christian Gonzalez.
I want nothing to do with it. What scares me about the
Raiders? Jason, I think you covered this
well, so I won't won't harp on it.
But Pete Carroll, if you remember his time with the with

(49:29):
Seattle, he had a bunch of no name guys on defense that people
hadn't heard of and all of a sudden they turned into the
Legion of Boom. So I look at the Raiders defense
right now and I see a bunch of no name guys.
I see defensive lineman who whenI pull up Pro Football Focus and
I look at their grades outside of Max Crosby, they're terrible
on paper, right? But then there's that little
voice in the back of my mind that's like, yeah, but it's Pete

(49:51):
Carroll. Maybe he knows what he's doing.
Maybe he's identified some rookies, maybe just like he did
in Seattle. So that scares me.
Revenge game for him. Something to consider.
But I'm going to say this again about the Patriots and that
sneaky future value. Weeks 6 through 8.
Saints, Titans, Browns, back-to-back to back.
You got to like having the Patriots still entering Week 6,

(50:13):
and then you've got some flexibility.
Oh no, I don't want to use them Week 6.
I'll use them Week 7 instead. Then I can move this team over
here. It affords you some flexibility
and something to consider. Appreciate you all being with
us. By the way, live Wednesday night
7 Eastern Last Men standing. This will probably be a longer
episode, typically will be with you for about an hour.
But lot to cover here in week 1,Tony, before we get to the next

(50:35):
game, which is Arizona versus atNew Orleans.
A lot to talk about there. But I just want to, I'm going to
put you on the spot here. We haven't talked about your
entries, right? And next year, like I said, I
want to be your girlfriend. I want to be, I want to be in
bed with you in terms of these entries, right?
So talk to us as to whatever extent you will.
And I may poke you a little bit,but you know, I'm on 4 entries
and then I got this last men standing one of my name.

(50:55):
But talk to me about your entries and how many it's going
to take to pull this winner fromthis year.
Yesterday I signed up at Westgate, by the way, for an
entry in their $5000 contest. But I know you're referring to
Circa. I've got 10 entries in my name,
DD3's Revenge, and then my girlfriend has signed it hasn't
yet, but will sign up for 10 entries before Saturday.

(51:17):
So between my girlfriend and I will have 20 entries.
Does your girlfriend watch football?
Is she? Is she an avid football fan at
all? Not so much last couple years.
We've been together for a coupleyears now.
So last couple years she's exponentially increased her
football watching and Survivor has kind of gotten in how how
can you love somebody and have that other person love Survivor

(51:41):
this much and you have it not rub off on you, right.
So yeah, exactly. So, hey, and if we're looking to
zig when others are zagging, youknow, may not be afraid to
solicit her opinion here or there on a football game.
All right, this game, I thought I was going to play this game in
the survivor pool. I most certainly am not the
Arizona Cardinals at the New Orleans Saints.
I believe in the new head football coach in New Orleans,

(52:04):
Kellen Moore a lot. And it scares me a little bit.
I don't really know what to expect with that quarterback
Rattler. I know you think highly of the
Cardinals and their head football coach and I do like the
Cardinals a lot. I think potentially Harrison
breaks out a little bit. Love McBride.
I think they're potentially on both sides of I think it pretty
well-rounded all three units here.
But a road game, I don't pay toomuch attention, right.

(52:26):
It's it's the, you know, West Coast team coming east couple
hours. It's central time.
I just to me, it scares me. Despite kind of liking the
Cardinals money line in the football game.
Go ahead. I'll say this, remember I said I
wrote that article for Survivor outlets and I did the profile of
the teams who lose in week 1 as big favorites the last couple
years there wasn't much of a difference at all between home

(52:47):
and away. I I'm not afraid of the fact
that the the Cardinals are and away team here.
Yes, New Orleans is a tough place to play.
It is a factor. It is worth considering, but
it's built into the line alreadythat home field advantage for
for the Saints. I just think the Cardinals are a
much better team than the Saints.
I think this is one of those don't overthink it moves.
Spencer Rattler. The Saints are O and seven in

(53:08):
games that he plays, and five ofthem were blowouts.
Let me read you some scores here, Jason. 5127 Spencer Ratley
loses 33 to 1026 to 834 to nothing, 25 to 1027 to 19.
And then there was one close game. 2019.
This guy hasn't sniffed a win. I guess he sniffed one win and
didn't get it. He's gotten blown out in every

(53:28):
game he plays. If there's a game on the Week 1
schedule that is a complete freaking annihilation blowout,
and you say to yourself, how didI not see that one coming?
It's this game. I love it.
It's this game and and by the way, ironically this game last
season was the Saints. This seems like forever to go.

(53:50):
Remember, the Saints destroyed the Panthers.
He won last year. They won by like 40 points.
And then of course, you're saying shit.
How did I not see that coming? I should have taken the Saints
and Survivor. I think this could be that game
like I would not be shocked at all if the Cardinals won by 20
points. However, however, the Cardinals

(54:11):
do have a really nice spot and I'm not going to spend too much
time at this point because I have to keep my my cards a
little close to my best here. You guys got to do your own
research, but I'm going to say this the Cardinals, I'll just
put it this way lightly, gently.The Cardinals have a very, very
pivotal week 5 game in terms of your survivor grid and the the

(54:34):
chain reaction. If you don't use the Cardinals,
there very important game week five against the Panthers.
And if you take the Cardinals off the board, you're not able
to use them Week 5. And I think that has
ramifications if you see what I'm saying, for the rest of your
grid. So just something to be aware
of. I don't see a spot after Week 6
to use the Cardinals. Really interesting point about

(54:58):
the home Rd. stuff. And certainly if this game was
being contested in the great state of Arizona, it'd probably
be a double digit favorite there.
Certainly they may be the biggest favorite on the board.
So maybe, you know, getting themin a spot where others may may
not love them. Yeah, I I hear you, man.
I you move the needle with me a little bit there with that talk.
Let me throw one more thing out there.
Spencer Rattler, young quarterback, Cardinals,

(55:20):
everything that I've been reading in training camp,
they're running a lot of exotic packages, 3 outside linebacker
packages, three safety packages.Spencer Rattler, who isn't a
good quarterback, is going to beseeing a lot of things he's
never seen before. And so that makes me like the
Cardinals a little. More too.
Josh Weck coming around the edgetoo.
Should be nice. So all right, we move on 1:00

(55:40):
game. We I could talk an hour with you
on all these game Pittsburgh Steelers at the New York Jets,
Everybody loves Pittsburgh. I'll start and say that right
and we'll talk about that. I've seen this line move by 2
1/2, right? I saw it at 3, seen it move a
little bit. The noteworthy injury starting
right guard Elijah Vera Tucker suffered season season ending
torn tricep during Tuesday's practice That really made me

(56:02):
maybe love Pittsburgh as much aseveryone else.
That one injury did move the needle for me.
Gosh, man. My identical twin, John, he and
I like Justin John, and I like Justin Fields and Daniel Jones
more than everybody else in the whole United States combined.
So what I'll say is this to me, this Jets game to me feels a
little bit like the Cowboys, right?
If The Jets were to win this, ifthe Cowboys win at Philly or The

(56:24):
Jets win hosting Pittsburgh, it's going to be one of those
galvanizing, emotional, sort of fluky situations.
I like Pittsburgh here. Your thoughts?
I like Pittsburgh quite a bit, about as much as I like
Jacksonville, I'll put it that way.
I'm glad you brought up the injury news.
Saw Skardner limited practice today with a calf.
That's obviously a huge one to keep an eye on as well.
But that other injury that you mentioned, I think the trenches

(56:45):
are going to be important to keep an eye on.
I think the Steelers have a big advantage in the trenches.
That defense might be one of thebest defenses in the NFLI.
Do think that's a huge mismatch.The other mismatch here is
coaching Jason. You've got Aaron Glenn.
I don't want to disparage the guy, but he's going to be
coaching a game for the first time in his career.
He's only got 10 years of coaching experience in any

(57:07):
position period, going up against Mike Tomlin, who not
only we know, Mike Tomlin's a good coach, but he's a good Week
1 coach, especially. He's four and one straight up in
his last five week one games. Look at his career Week 1
record. Mike Tomlin always has his guys
ready. So massive, massive coaching
mismatch in my opinion, not justat the head coach position.
I mean special teams. The the Steelers have one of the

(57:29):
best special teams coaches in the NFL, Danny Smith.
The Jets are expected to be one of the worst special teams units
in the league, and that matters,right?
Hey, Tony, what are you doing talking about special teams on a
survivor show? Well, in a game that's lined it,
what is it? 3738 points, 3 point point
spread, a kick return, a punt return, some about a muffed punt

(57:50):
that could easily decide this game.
And I like the Steelers here in this spa.
I really do. I know that they're on the road
that's going to scare a couple people off them.
And I like that it's going to scare a couple people off them
because I want to use the Steelers spots to use the
Steelers moving forward. This is a really good one,
Jason. Look at this week. 6 Steelers
are off a by well rested. They're playing Cleveland, who's

(58:13):
playing in its third straight Rd. game and coming back from
London. Is there a bigger rest advantage
there for that one? So a wonderful spot to use the
Steelers Week 6. That's that's a reason not to
use the Steelers in this spot. But I do think they're a great
survivor pool pick this week. You also got week nine against
Indy and then late in the season, that tricky week 17,

(58:35):
which I brought up earlier. The Steelers play the Browns as
well. So there are a lot of good
reasons to save the Steelers andnot use them here in this spot.
I agree. Do you expect The Jets defense
to have the chance to play the game of their life with Aaron
Rodgers as the opposing quarterback?
And these guys saw each other inpractice every day, right?
So Aaron Rodgers knows their weaknesses.
They know his weaknesses. I don't know what to expect from

(58:58):
The Jets defense. So many of those guys I
mentioned, Sauce Gardner, he's agreat example, underperformed
last year. Did they underperform because
they gave up on the season? Screw it, we're done.
Or did they regress? I don't know the answer to that.
I'm gonna be fascinated to see how well this team plays on
offense and defense. Final one O clock game New York
Giants at Washington commander. So when the board for when the

(59:20):
week 1 when the NFL schedule wasfirst released and I I knew I
was going to want to do more survivors regardless of doing
this show. I knew I was going to want to
enter more survivor entries. This was the game for me that
stood out The the Commanders wasthe team I like the most in the
Survivor because I just ultimately thought Giants one of
the worst teams last year. Whatever that quarterback
situation is, I stand here todaywanting no piece of the

(59:44):
Commanders. That Giants defensive front I
think is absolutely nasty and inan odd way I believe in all
three quarterbacks in that quarterback room to be able to
do enough. I think I like the six points
with the Giants. This is not one of the team, one
of the games I'm looking at in Survivor for my 4 year.
Thoughts. Yeah, I like the the Giants with
the points as well. They played the Commanders

(01:00:06):
really tough last year even though they were a miserable
team. 21 SCORE games 21182722IN weeks 2 and 9, I like your point
about the Giants defensive front.
Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeau, Dexter Lawrence, Abdul Carter,
Bobby O'kerrake up against an offensive line for Washington
that Pro Football Focus graded them the 19th best offensive

(01:00:27):
line with Sam Cosby, who's now out and isn't going to play in
this game. So there's an argument that
Washington has a bottom 10 offensive line against this
really good Giants front. The Giants played Washington
really tough last year. I think that's a dicey 1.
I want nothing to do with Washington Week 1.
I love it. Nothing.
Let's give a shout out. Oh, go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah, no, talk to me.

(01:00:47):
I. Was going to say let's give a
little shout out to to Race Oracle here.
We love Race Oracle on this show.
Another one of our awesome sponsors.
Attention racing fans, if you want an edge at the track, you
need Race Oracle. This subscription service uses
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(01:01:09):
conditions to jockey history andspeed ratings.
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Don't guess, predict smarter. Subscribe today and start

(01:01:30):
betting with data, not luck. I can listen to Jason Anik add
reads all day long. You're so good at that, man.
You're so good. I don't like listen to my own
voice, but shout out the people at Race Oracle and I used to be
somewhat of a junkie. I shouldn't say junkie because I
always gamble within my means, but I love betting on horse
racing. And so this partnership with

(01:01:51):
Race Oracle has got me juiced. And one of the things that you
brought up just quickly, we're going to talk football, but one
of the things about Race Oracle is like they can forgive me.
We don't have a screenshot, but you can sort of set your own
units if you will, like they help you sort of manage your
bankroll, if you will, which forme for horse racing is what I
need because I tend to be all over the show there.
So hit up raceoracle.com. Absolutely.

(01:02:13):
Is it is it ironic here that we're going from the race Oracle
promo talk about the Broncos? We unintentionally do this
that's. Perfect.
See, and Tony, Tony farmer's brain is wired differently.
He said on the on the on the documentary for survivor, right.
He said, I'm going to win this thing at one point.
This is my guy Tony saying this,I'm going to win this thing at
one point. So I want a camera crew like

(01:02:34):
following me around to witness one of the best days of my life.
I'm paraphrasing, but Tony's going to win this thing.
I like the way your brain is wired.
So Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos, we saw Mr. Stewart's
tweet earlier tonight. Broncos have been chalk.
Gosh I love Sean Payton to beat a rookie quarterback here.
I do see some future value with the Broncos on the board.

(01:02:55):
I it's going to be hard for me not to punch a ticket for 5280,
which is that 5280 miles above sea level.
I like Denver here and I think they'll get one of my 4 entries.
Yeah, I mean, this is going to be without a doubt, without a
inkling of a doubt, the highest selected game in Surface
Survivor. It's the highest line game,

(01:03:16):
right up there with Philadelphia.
And they don't have the holiday implications.
So, yeah, I'm glad we just put that up on the screen.
This is Survivor Atlas. They came out with this
yesterday. You got to go over to Survivor
atlas.com. They came out with this
yesterday. These are their projections.
By the way, These are going to change throughout the week.
They're going to update them, but 32% of people are going to
be on Denver. Jason, I think the number could
actually be higher. I would not be shocked at all.

(01:03:38):
637% That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
There is a lot to like here. You talked about Sean Payton
against the rookie coach, like rookie quarterback, rookie
quarterback making his first start against that defense, one
of the best defenses in the NFL in elevation.
That's a tough spot for a rookiequarterback to be.

(01:03:59):
Could it be tougher? I mean, how much tougher can you
get than that? I I guess if it was also a prime
time game under the lights Monday night, maybe, I don't
know, like this is a really, really tough spot here.
I will say this, if you want some arguments to be a little
weary of the Titans, Two of the Broncos starters on defense are
going to be on pitch counts because they're both coming off
of, you know, major surgeries, including Drake, Drake,

(01:04:21):
Greenlaw. I do think the Titans are a lot
more feisty than people think. Like they weren't as bad as
their records showed last season.
Their quarterback play was really bad last year.
That's why they stunk. The rest of their team was kind
of average. And so you've got this team that
in my opinion, was like a quarterback away from being an

(01:04:43):
average team. And now they've got a
quarterback who might be good orbad, we don't know yet.
So there is an argument to be made.
These Titans are way, way betterthan people think.
I think they could be feistier than people think on Week 1, but
there's just too much there. I got to go Broncos.

(01:05:03):
I got to have at least a couple entries here on the Broncos.
Yeah, and I'll just quickly say right, part of my logic with the
Bengals is I believe they want to win Week 1 desperately.
I know all these teams do. But I and I believe Denver after
going O and two last year, I think they got back four and
four, whatever. You know, it certainly was a
good season. But you know, we talked about
April in baseball or whatever itmay be, but I think there's

(01:05:25):
certain organizations that are going to prioritize AW in week
one more than some others. And I'm sort of willing to zig
when everyone's zigging, perhapsin this spot.
Well said, well said. Denver in the future.
They've got Indy next week, which could be an interesting
spot for them. Jets, Giants, Raiders twice and
Jags later in the season. So be fascinating to see how

(01:05:46):
many people pull the trigger on Denver Week one with those spots
on the board. And one thing I just want to say
real quickly before we get into these games or just ask you,
right, for those that have multiple entries, if some guys
will do sort of all their entries on one team or you know,
let's say you got 10 entries, you might do eight on one team
and then sprinkle a couple others.
Do you think a lot of guys or a lot of people that have multiple

(01:06:08):
entries sprayed across the boardmore or isolate a lot of their
entries on one team each week? It's a great question.
A little bit of both. I think Human nature is to be
more conservative and spread it out.
Nobody wants to spend $10,000 onCircus Survivor and go out week
one, right? And the easiest, easiest,
easiest like path from point A to point B to make that happen

(01:06:30):
is by putting them all on one team and then quarterback gets
hurt, something crazy happens, right?
So human nature is I need to spread things out Week 1.
I think more people do that, butthere's a lot of people, I mean,
a lot of people, NFL wise guys last year, all 10 on the same
team, all 10 on the same team through, I mean, Week 10 and
beyond. They're the most well known case
of it. But a lot of people do it and

(01:06:51):
it's common to see people lose all 10.
It'll happen Week 1. I promise you there will be
20-30, maybe more people who lose all 10 entries on the same
team in Week 1. It will absolutely happen.
So yeah, it just depends on youryour thresholds for risk there.
As I mentioned, you made it all the way to Week 18 last season.
This was covered in the documentary Heartbreaking Loss

(01:07:14):
with the Packers. A part they edited out, though,
was saying I was probably the biggest loser in circuit history
because I didn't hedge at all. I had nothing.
I just had all my chips in. All I cared about was the blue
jacket. I wanted to win the contest.
Like, to me, that's worth more. I wanted to win the contest.
I'm not sure if I have more respect for what you did or how

(01:07:34):
you're talking about it now. Either way, you're the fucking
man. Excuse my language and you're
due. Such a great clip from last
week. Such a great clip.
Unbelievable. Love me some house I should
have. I got to find him on Instagram.
By the way, House, send me your Instagram handle because I
should have tagged you. I put that out earlier, but that
was incredible. So as we move on to San

(01:07:55):
Francisco versus Seattle or San Francisco at Seattle, excuse me.
You know, it's interesting when when I was on odd check with you
last year with you and Andrew Avery Ninja, you guys are both
49ers fans. And I told all my friends as I
would talk about the NFL and like these guys are 49ers fans
or they're super sharp. They're just always a week ahead
on everything. So I certainly trust you when it
comes to your own team, the 49ers.

(01:08:16):
You've talked to me about how banged up they are, Sam Darnold.
I don't know if I could justify that.
You can be sure I've done a bunch of maps.
Sam Darnold didn't find any map for me anywhere because he is
not going to take any of my money this season.
You can be sure I like some of what Seattle's doing.
I do believe in your 49ers long term this season.

(01:08:36):
Any thoughts on this game Week 1?
The line movement has been fascinating at Circa the last
couple days it was at Niners 2 point favorites.
It goes down to 1 1/2 and I tweeted this out on our account.
It went down to 1 1/2 on good news for the 49ers that Jawan
Jennings was back from his calf slash contract holdout Dominic
Poni, their second best offensive lineman back for the

(01:08:56):
49ers. And I put a little tweet I said,
huh, interesting. It went from 2 to 1 1/2 on good
news for the 49ers. And guess what?
It's back up to 2 1/2 now. Juiced at -120 suggesting it
could go to three at Circa. So reading between the lines
here, it appears that some people with deep pockets really,
really liked that 49ers 1 1/2 number, maybe even a head fake

(01:09:18):
situation going on. I'm not sure exactly what went
down there, but fascinating linemovement here.
Some people out there really like the 49ers.
I get it, especially on that news with those two guys back
because as we talked about, the Niners are incredibly thin.
I think there's an argument, Jason to be made that Mike
McDaniel, Mike McDonald, excuse me, Seattle's head coach is a
little bit of Brock Purdy's kryptonite.

(01:09:41):
He had that game when McDonald was the defensive coordinator
for the Ravens where Purdy threw4 interceptions against the
Ravens on Christmas. You know the last game that
Purdy played against Seattle, heonly threw for 159 yards.
I don't know how comfortable Brock Purdy is against the Mike
McDonald defense. That's a tough place to play on

(01:10:01):
the road. Niners have some good spots
later this year. This is a great comment here
from Twitter. So there may be more 49er fans
in the stadium than Seattle fans, which is a big deal in
that stadium, right? Regarded as one of the louder
stadiums in the NFL. Ticket data, by the way.
Fascinating how they do this with cookies or however the heck

(01:10:23):
they pull this off, right? But ticket data is suggesting
there might be more San Francisco fans in Seattle for
that one. Fascinating.
But games the Niners have real quick moving forward.
They play the Cardinals twice, the Jags, the Giants, the
Panthers, the Titans, Indy and Cleveland.
So tons of future value here forthe 49ers moving forward.
You know, this may be an intangible comment.
It most certainly is. But I like Brock Purdy with this

(01:10:45):
contract, you know, maybe takinga little bit of an easier deep
breath, maybe settling down thatheart rate a little bit.
And I also think Kyle Shanahan is probably still livid about
everything that happened last year.
And I bet he kind of wants this one, right.
So for me and and you know, Sam Darnold walked through that door
in San Francisco, so he probablyknows a little bit about him.
I certainly didn't look at how he, the Vikings and 49ers match

(01:11:07):
up when when Darnold was there. But I like San Francisco a lot
in this spot. I guess I'll say as we get
through this conversation. So to me, that may be a team I'm
considering in the survivor millions.
One game against the spread, I'll say that.
And you got to like the Niners next week at the Saints, right?
That's a dream spot now, especially if I'm right on this.
And Seattle's going to be friskier than people think.

(01:11:28):
And let's say Seattle were to beat the 49ers.
How about an O in 140 Niner teamgoing into New Orleans week,
too? That'd be very, very, very
popular choice in survivor poolsfor sure.
Moving on to another game that Iwould be surprised if we play,
if we have any plays on. I know I won't in survivor
Detroit Lions at the Green Bay Packers, right?

(01:11:51):
And so I feel like these two teams and the Micah Parsons
thing different definitely shookthis up.
But I feel like being able to predict these two teams in
particular, I feel like it's going to go a long way for me
this season in my bank account, even in survivor, You know, I
like this the Packers in this spot to begin with.
So adding Micah Parsons. I certainly like them more.
And I really do believe I don't really believe in Jared Goff in

(01:12:13):
big spots. I like Dan Campbell's ability to
have that culture sort of remainthere.
But from an XS and OS standpoints, losing Ben Johnson,
losing Aaron Glenn on defensive side, even Tara Williams, who's
now calling the defense for the New England Patriots.
I just, I'm, I think I've talkedto a lot of people that are on
really high on Detroit this year, but I believe they take a
little bit of a step back. So I guess for me, I'm a little

(01:12:34):
bit bullish on the Packers this season, a little bit bearish on
the Lions, not touching it in Survivor.
Your thoughts on this? Ball game.
Yeah, I don't have a ton to say about this game, Jason.
It was sort of an immediate lookat the schedule and I'm like,
no, I I want nothing to do with this.
These are two evenly matched teams.
I honestly don't feel like I have a great read on the Lions.
I expect them to take a step back because like you said, you

(01:12:55):
know, they've lost both their coordinators.
No offensive coordinator, no defensive coordinator.
Remember what happened to the Eagles when they lost both their
coordinators? Like that could be trouble for
the Lions this season. But I will say this, there is an
interesting survivor angle for this game and it's this.
The Lions and Packers play on Thanksgiving.
So this is almost a reconnaissance mission for me.

(01:13:15):
I want to see how these two teams play week one.
Let me throw this out there. If all of a sudden, Detroit, I
don't think this is going to happen, but let's play a game
here. Detroit wins this game by 30
points Week 1. You think that doesn't change
your survivor grid All of a sudden?
Detroit wins in Lambeau by 30 points.
Now I feel a lot better about Detroit in Detroit on
Thanksgiving against that Packers team.

(01:13:36):
So how these two teams look Week1 is going to go a long way to
determining whether you might beable to cozy up to one of these
two teams on Thanksgiving Day. It's a great point.
And I remember saying to you, I'm not sure if it was on air or
off, but actually as I looked ahead and mapped things out,
that I actually, because I'm looking to fade Detroit a little
bit. I'll obviously see how they
play. But I was actually looking at

(01:13:57):
the Packers at Detroit because Iactually believe the Packers
could be playing great football at that time and Detroit could
be fumbling. So we'll see.
I think. I think a lot of what's going on
between the ears of Jared Goff will dictate how well this team.
Jason real quick, real quick, I know we got to get to these last
couple games. So we've been doing this show.

(01:14:18):
This show's been existing for two years.
This is an all time high for me.I see the little the the
viewership in the corner. So it's exciting.
I love it. The Jason Anak bump right here.
So appreciate you. I do want to remind people like
subscribe, retweet, thumbs up, spread the word.
We're also on Spotify. We're also on Apple podcast to
subscribe on there as well. Thank you.

(01:14:40):
And you can be sure we'll give you a follow back.
And anyone in Vegas, please cometo stadium swim like you know,
I'll drop my credit card down ifyou want some cocktails.
I'm not afraid of that. I'm sure Derek and the guys at
Circa wouldn't mind either. So come through and say hi.
We met some guy Derby shout out Derby.
By the way, he won the million pick five games against the
spread contest. Hopefully he can come through
next Wednesday at 10:30. Love to have some cocktails.

(01:15:02):
Oh, look who just popped up in the chat.
Good luck this season from NFL wise guys.
Hopefully you were watching a couple minutes ago.
We gave you guys a shout out. Everybody's going to be looking
to see what you guys do this year.
I suspect you're going to have all 10 entries on one team, and
I'm very curious what that team is moving forward.
Well and like this will be the finest final time I bring this
up. I'm getting excited here right?

(01:15:22):
This will be the 3rd and final time. 3 * A charm about being
your girlfriend, but I hope to meet your girlfriend during this
season so I can find my way intothe Tony Farmer inner circle.
I want to be in the war room with Tony Farmer for this
Survivor season. Either way, the entry that's
going to win is the champ entry which people are going to join
us on. Derbify.
There you are Derbify. Appreciate you.

(01:15:42):
Good luck to you as well, Sir. Final four O clock game, Texans
at Rams. A layoff for me.
I absolutely love the Rams. I'm a broken record.
I really believe they had a great chance to beat the Eagles
last season in the post season. If it hadn't been in the snow,
had they won that game, they would have hosted the NFC
Championship game. I like the Rams.
I think Stafford's back is goingto be OK, but I think the Texans

(01:16:04):
are going to have something to prove after sort of a subpar
second year last year for CJ Stroud.
Your thoughts on this one? A little bit of a mismatch here,
Rams defensive line against the Texas off Texans offensive line.
Remember, this Rams defense had 16 sacks in its last two games
last season versus playoff teams, including the Eagles, who
have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

(01:16:24):
You're now going up against thatTexans offensive line, which
isn't that great. Rams do have a ton of future
value moving forward this season.
They play the Saints, they play the Titans, they play Indy,
Jacksonville, Carolina and Arizona twice.
So I don't know that you want touse the Rams here, but I will
say this, this is a good spot, Ithink to be on an island.

(01:16:45):
If you like the Rams in this matchup, not a lot of people are
going to be on them. You do have the whole Stafford
angle. He gets hurt Week 2, Jimmy
Garoppolo comes in. We know Jimmy, you know, Devante
Adams doesn't like playing with Jimmy Garoppolo.
So you're going to be feeling real good if you can buy with
the Rams in Week 1 and then Stafford has a back injury Week
3 or 4. There is some coaching

(01:17:05):
familiarity. I think people need to be aware
of. The Texans offensive
coordinator, Nick Kaley, he was the Rand.
He was on the Rams staff last season.
D'amico Ryan's owned Sean McVay when he was the defensive
coordinator in San Francisco going up against Sean McVay in
those NFC West battles. So the coaching familiarity
works against you if you like the Rams here.
But I'll just say this interesting spot to use the Rams

(01:17:28):
because not a lot of people willbe on them.
Great point. Moving on to the night game
Sunday night Baltimore Ravens atthe Buffalo Bills anyone you
know I always say right in termsof handicapping mixed martial
arts, right, I'll find you a high level UFC fighter who likes
one fighter. Appreciate you poker player 9679
and I'll find you UFC fighter, you know on the other side.

(01:17:50):
So this particular game, I believe the Ravens roster is
superior, right? They're on the right.
Certainly the Bills, if the Ravens were home, they'd
probably be designated as a favorite.
They're designated favorite on the road.
There's our guy Bob Renfro, has Bob Renfro.
Is this Bob Renfro's first appearance an hour and 18
minutes in? This comment's been waiting for
a little while. I think he made it at the
beginning, so yeah, I just brought it in now.

(01:18:11):
Mike Jones, Bob Renfro's Avip Sojust there's no Mike Jones in
the back. Bob Renfro moving up to the VIP
list. But anyway, anyone who wants to
give me a sharp handicap on Ravens bills, go ahead.
Can't wait to watch it. I won't have a penny on anything
in this game. Go ahead, Tony.
Yeah, survivor implications? Absolutely not.
It's going to be a great game for an NFL fan to watch.
You got the two former MVPS, of course, going up against each

(01:18:32):
other. I do like the Ravens plus 1.5.
It was interesting Circa had I think the Ravens as as the
favorite and other books had. Yeah, that's that.
That tells you something for sure.
I think the Bills secondary is going to be the weakest unit on
the field, and so that makes me lean a little bit more toward
the Ravens here. I like the way Ravens quite a
bit for a Week 1 bet want nothing to do with it for

(01:18:53):
survivor pool purposes. Both teams have too much future
value. Bingo.
Got to hold on to both of these teams.
And the Monday night game, wildly unpredictable.
If you're asking me, Minnesota Vikings at the Chicago Bears, JJ
McCarthy at Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson making his head coaching
debut. Yeah.
I mean, I almost want to ask youwho you like in this game.

(01:19:14):
I didn't give it a sniff from Survivor.
And if you think I want to hold anything for Survivor till
Monday night, I'm 47 years old. I don't need that stress waiting
for Monday night. I want nothing to do with this.
I probably lean Bears in Ben Johnson's debut.
What do you think of this game? Yeah, Bears plus 1 1/2 point
favorites. I like the Bears teased up to 7
1/2 in a game like this. I think JJ McCarthy's going to

(01:19:36):
be the story of this game because if if you take out the
quarterback position, the Vikings honestly have like a top
five NFL roster. If you take the quarterback
position out and they're deep from top to bottom.
So it's just going to come down to how prepared this guy is.
We talked earlier in the show, Cam Ward.
That's such a tough spot going to elevation first NFL game in
Denver. Well, how is playing in Chicago

(01:19:57):
on Monday Night Football as yourfirst NFL start?
That's a tough spot too, right? So I think it's going to come
down to these quarterbacks. Is JJ ready?
In that first spot, has Caleb and Ben Johnson been able to get
on the same page and kind of that whole offense gel, so to
speak? I do think the Vikings defense
is a lot better than Chicago's offense.
This is going to be another fun one to watch.

(01:20:20):
Yeah. I don't think there's going to
be any survivor implications forme on this one.
Yeah, I mean, hopefully we've all survived by Sunday night and
we can just enjoy watching the football game.
So our entry in Survivor sweat joint entry called Champ.
How about that? Nobody used Champ before.
Are you telling me CHAMP was available?
Not not Champ 123. We'll take Champ.

(01:20:40):
We'll try and take it to the top.
But we have made our selection, if I'm not mistaken, Tony Farmer
for our entry. So let the people know.
Unless I'm mistaken. No, you're not mistaken, and
this is kind of cool actually, because we talked about the
marketplace and you go on and ifyou don't have control of the
entry, you're just along for theride and you don't know what
someone is going to necessarily pick the next week.

(01:21:03):
This is an opportunity for you guys later in the season when
this entry is hopefully available.
If we make it for Survivor Sweatto jump on it, we'll tell you
each week what we're going to gowith unless there's some crazy
injury or something like that. So we're going to start that
tradition now. We're going with the
Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday.It's a shocky selection if

(01:21:23):
you're just tuning in earlier onin the show is the first game
that we covered. If you want to see why we like
the Eagles in this spot. I got to be honest, Jason, if
I'm being really, really honest here, I would be a little
embarrassed if our week one picklost.
What a bummer. We have this whole plan.
We hope to sell pieces of this entry as the season goes along.
So I am playing this a little differently, you know what I'm

(01:21:46):
saying? Like I'm playing it a little
conservatively. I want this entry to last as
long as possible, which is why Ithink, and I think we're on the
same page with this Philly's themove here for this, this joint
entry. And what I will say right, it's
a joint entry, which I love. And my other survivor entries
are joint entries as well, my brother John.
And you might like Philadelphia more than any team all week,

(01:22:08):
right? And they happen to play on
Thursday night. For me, it's almost like a tooth
fairy yellow brick road randomness where I just feel
like Dallas may may. I just feel like the Micah
Parsons exit may be what sort ofshakes up the universe.
But I like the Eagles. I'm with you on this game, but I
don't think I'm going to be as shocked as you or my brother if

(01:22:31):
this game ends up sort of bitingus.
That's fair. Jason, I want to give you a
little insight to my brain rightnow.
So you just said Thursday night in my brain.
I wanted to correct you in my brain and said, actually that's
tomorrow night. And then I went, actually,
that's tomorrow night. We got football tomorrow night,
buddy. We got football tomorrow night.
The NFL season is here, man. Let's go.
Right. And you'll know because you're a

(01:22:51):
little younger than me. As you get older, it just gets
faster and faster. This day comes quicker.
But the day I met you at oddshark.com doing the huddle,
you talked about week one NFL Sunday being your favorite day
of the year. And when I, and me too, and when
I did this show, I didn't know if I got hockey handicappers, we
got college football guys, right?
You know, Tony and I, we don't, you know he doesn't watch MMA,

(01:23:11):
right? I might not watch all the things
he watches, but you can be sure like this is king for us.
We're going to be here for you every Wednesday night trying to
break it down. And in terms of how much
information Tony's going to disclose, I'm an open book, all
right? I'm going to win this thing with
Champ. But Tony, as we get further
along, may hold things a little bit closer to the best, but it's
my job to pull as much as I can out of him for you.

(01:23:32):
Absolutely, Thank you guys so much for watching Follow on
Spotify. Hit that like button if you're
watching Luck Week 1. Hey.

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