June 12, 2025 • 7 mins
Dr Jessica Genauer from Flinders University joins Graham Goodings on FIVEAA Mornings.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Israel's PM Benjamin Yahu says Aram was a threat to
Israel's very survival. Israel is the clearest state of emergency,
saying the country expected retaliation.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
For years, the Iranian regime has called for the destruction
of the state of Israel. Over the past few months,
intelligence has shown that Iran is closer than ever to
obtaining a nuclear weapon. This morning, the IDF begun preemptive
and precise strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear program in order
to prevent the Iranian regime's ability to build a nuclear
(00:31):
bomb in the immediate timeframe.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Jessica Juana Sponndor's University's Senior International Relations lecture and she
joins me. Now, Jessica, good morning to.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
You, Good morning, thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
What are we to make of this latest development?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Yeah, so this is quite dramatic, and we are looking
at a very volatile situation in the Middle East right now,
where there's been a threat of direct strikes between Israel
and Iran, or you know, a more direct military confrontation
between Israel and Iran that's been building over the last
couple of years that we have seen a little bit
(01:07):
of this already in twenty twenty four, But now, you know,
I think we are seeing a very risky situation where
I think Israel is hoping that it will get away
with these strikes on military and nuclear targets in Iran
without too much retaliation from Iran in response. But we
(01:28):
could actually see an unintentional escalation towards an all out
military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which would then probably
inevitably drag in the United States as well.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
It was said earlier that Israel's attacking Iran would be
unlikely unless they had US backing.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Well, I actually before this occurred, and you know, this
is only just very breaking news that Israel has carried
out these strikes, I actually did think it was quite
likely that Israel would try to strike some kind of
military or nuclear targets in Iran because we have seen
Israel do this before, and even though the US are
(02:10):
not fully endorsing it, I think that Bivinet Nyahu and
the Israeli government are primarily operating driven by domestic concerns
right now. I think that they're confident that whilst the
US might not offer them full endorsement, they're not going
to actually be you know, seriously, opposed or try to
(02:33):
stop Israel from these sort of targeted strikes against military
assets in Iran. And at the same time, I think
the Israeli government has more domestic issues online, so trying
to kind of rally the domestic populations around the Israeli government,
which is in many ways quite unpopular with large sections
(02:55):
of the Israeli population.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Donald trumpet earlier said as a war to Israel, if
you're going to attack, don't attack Iran's nuclear sites. But
that appears to have been the case that they have
attacked them.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
That's right, that's what we believe. At the moment. It's still,
as I said, very much breaking news. More information is
coming to light, but again that doesn't really surprise me
in that Israel has done this before, and that Israel
has always said that if it looks like Aron might
be close to developing a nuclear weapons, that they would
attack those sites. And what we've seen just recently is
(03:31):
that the sort of international you know, international body, the
International Atomic Energy Agency that goes into countries and monitors
and checks whether or not they're getting close to developing
a nuclear weapon if they're sort of not supposed to
be doing so, that the international Atomic Energy Agency has
just said in their most recent report that they do
(03:52):
think that Iran is violating the terms of not developing
a nuclear weapons. So also following that report, Whilst I
don't think that Israel is necessarily too concerned about that
report or the activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
it gives them a sort of a rationale or a
(04:14):
reasoning to then going in and bombing those nuclear facilities,
which is what we think has happened.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Do we have any reason to believe that Iran is
close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I wouldn't be surprised if they are, and I wouldn't
be surprised if Iran. I mean, I don't have any
insider knowledge on this, but we definitely know that they
use nuclear material for other purposes, and I wouldn't be
surprised if they wanted to get as close as they
possibly could towards developing a nuclear weapon, just because we
(04:45):
are in such an uncertain geopolitical environment right now. The
US has nuclear weapons, Israel has nuclear weapons, the UK
has nuclear weapons, you know, so I imagine Iran might
be looking around at the kind of global and regional
ins and saying to themselves, if we want to make
sure that we don't become the victims of an attempt
(05:08):
at regime change. So essentially the Iranian regime wants the
same power. Then a nuclear weapon is kind of the
ultimate guarantee that no other country would come in and
try to affect regime change with a foreign force. So
I think that Iran would be trying to walk this
line of saying that they're not developing nuclear weapons, but
(05:29):
trying to get as close as possible that they can
so that if they see it some states, they're going
to need that to guarantee their regime that they won't
be too far away from the development of nuclear weapons.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Israel's declared the state of emergency, so they're obviously expecting retaliation.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
Yes, I think they will expect, and I would also
expect some kind of retaliation, although I think that the
Iranian regime does not want an all out military confrontation
with Israel, the same as Israel doesn't want an all
out war with Iran, but hoping to kind of stay
below that threshold of hostilities. So I would expect that
(06:05):
Iran will need to retaliate in some way, and I
think that'll be probably drones and missiles that will be
sent towards Israeli territory. The last time we saw that
happen in twenty twenty four, almost all of them were
intercepted by Israel's air defense system, the Iron Docks, So
I imagine that again that would probably be the case.
(06:27):
But I think also this is the Israeli Prime Minister
Biniminet Nyahu trying to maintain political control and you know,
in some ways support within the Israeli domestic context by
creating this heightened feeling of external threat.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I know it's very early days, but is there any
suggestion of US involvement or assistance in the strikes?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
So there is no talk of that at the moment.
And I actually think if we try to look at
the way that Trump has been approaching the Middle East
since coming in dis his second term as president, whilst
he's quite interventionist in many ways, like he really likes
to put himself front and center in many issues around
the world, I actually don't think that he is very
(07:12):
inclined towards encouraging or engaging in direct strikes against Iran.
So I can't see the US offering clear support or
getting involved in direct strikes against Iran. But on the
other hand, I don't think that he would restrain Bibinet
Yahu or the Israeli government, maybe to the extent that
(07:33):
he could. And if we do see an escalation, that
becomes a much more clear, direct military conflict between Israel
and Iran, which I don't think we'll see because neither
country really wants it. But if we were to see that,
then I think the US wouldn't have much choice but
to become involved at some stage.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Jessica, thank you so much for your insight today. I
really appreciate it. The short Naters
Israel's PM Benjamin Yahu says Aram was a threat to
Israel's very survival. Israel is the clearest state of emergency,
saying the country expected retaliation.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
For years, the Iranian regime has called for the destruction
of the state of Israel. Over the past few months,
intelligence has shown that Iran is closer than ever to
obtaining a nuclear weapon. This morning, the IDF begun preemptive
and precise strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear program in order
to prevent the Iranian regime's ability to build a nuclear
(00:31):
bomb in the immediate timeframe.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Jessica Juana Sponndor's University's Senior International Relations lecture and she
joins me. Now, Jessica, good morning to.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
You, Good morning, thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
What are we to make of this latest development?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Yeah, so this is quite dramatic, and we are looking
at a very volatile situation in the Middle East right now,
where there's been a threat of direct strikes between Israel
and Iran, or you know, a more direct military confrontation
between Israel and Iran that's been building over the last
couple of years that we have seen a little bit
(01:07):
of this already in twenty twenty four, But now, you know,
I think we are seeing a very risky situation where
I think Israel is hoping that it will get away
with these strikes on military and nuclear targets in Iran
without too much retaliation from Iran in response. But we
(01:28):
could actually see an unintentional escalation towards an all out
military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which would then probably
inevitably drag in the United States as well.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
It was said earlier that Israel's attacking Iran would be
unlikely unless they had US backing.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Well, I actually before this occurred, and you know, this
is only just very breaking news that Israel has carried
out these strikes, I actually did think it was quite
likely that Israel would try to strike some kind of
military or nuclear targets in Iran because we have seen
Israel do this before, and even though the US are
(02:10):
not fully endorsing it, I think that Bivinet Nyahu and
the Israeli government are primarily operating driven by domestic concerns
right now. I think that they're confident that whilst the
US might not offer them full endorsement, they're not going
to actually be you know, seriously, opposed or try to
(02:33):
stop Israel from these sort of targeted strikes against military
assets in Iran. And at the same time, I think
the Israeli government has more domestic issues online, so trying
to kind of rally the domestic populations around the Israeli government,
which is in many ways quite unpopular with large sections
(02:55):
of the Israeli population.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Donald trumpet earlier said as a war to Israel, if
you're going to attack, don't attack Iran's nuclear sites. But
that appears to have been the case that they have
attacked them.
Speaker 3 (03:08):
That's right, that's what we believe. At the moment. It's still,
as I said, very much breaking news. More information is
coming to light, but again that doesn't really surprise me
in that Israel has done this before, and that Israel
has always said that if it looks like Aron might
be close to developing a nuclear weapons, that they would
attack those sites. And what we've seen just recently is
(03:31):
that the sort of international you know, international body, the
International Atomic Energy Agency that goes into countries and monitors
and checks whether or not they're getting close to developing
a nuclear weapon if they're sort of not supposed to
be doing so, that the international Atomic Energy Agency has
just said in their most recent report that they do
(03:52):
think that Iran is violating the terms of not developing
a nuclear weapons. So also following that report, Whilst I
don't think that Israel is necessarily too concerned about that
report or the activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
it gives them a sort of a rationale or a
(04:14):
reasoning to then going in and bombing those nuclear facilities,
which is what we think has happened.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Do we have any reason to believe that Iran is
close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I wouldn't be surprised if they are, and I wouldn't
be surprised if Iran. I mean, I don't have any
insider knowledge on this, but we definitely know that they
use nuclear material for other purposes, and I wouldn't be
surprised if they wanted to get as close as they
possibly could towards developing a nuclear weapon, just because we
(04:45):
are in such an uncertain geopolitical environment right now. The
US has nuclear weapons, Israel has nuclear weapons, the UK
has nuclear weapons, you know, so I imagine Iran might
be looking around at the kind of global and regional
ins and saying to themselves, if we want to make
sure that we don't become the victims of an attempt
(05:08):
at regime change. So essentially the Iranian regime wants the
same power. Then a nuclear weapon is kind of the
ultimate guarantee that no other country would come in and
try to affect regime change with a foreign force. So
I think that Iran would be trying to walk this
line of saying that they're not developing nuclear weapons, but
(05:29):
trying to get as close as possible that they can
so that if they see it some states, they're going
to need that to guarantee their regime that they won't
be too far away from the development of nuclear weapons.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Israel's declared the state of emergency, so they're obviously expecting retaliation.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
Yes, I think they will expect, and I would also
expect some kind of retaliation, although I think that the
Iranian regime does not want an all out military confrontation
with Israel, the same as Israel doesn't want an all
out war with Iran, but hoping to kind of stay
below that threshold of hostilities. So I would expect that
(06:05):
Iran will need to retaliate in some way, and I
think that'll be probably drones and missiles that will be
sent towards Israeli territory. The last time we saw that
happen in twenty twenty four, almost all of them were
intercepted by Israel's air defense system, the Iron Docks, So
I imagine that again that would probably be the case.
(06:27):
But I think also this is the Israeli Prime Minister
Biniminet Nyahu trying to maintain political control and you know,
in some ways support within the Israeli domestic context by
creating this heightened feeling of external threat.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
I know it's very early days, but is there any
suggestion of US involvement or assistance in the strikes?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
So there is no talk of that at the moment.
And I actually think if we try to look at
the way that Trump has been approaching the Middle East
since coming in dis his second term as president, whilst
he's quite interventionist in many ways, like he really likes
to put himself front and center in many issues around
the world, I actually don't think that he is very
(07:12):
inclined towards encouraging or engaging in direct strikes against Iran.
So I can't see the US offering clear support or
getting involved in direct strikes against Iran. But on the
other hand, I don't think that he would restrain Bibinet
Yahu or the Israeli government, maybe to the extent that
(07:33):
he could. And if we do see an escalation, that
becomes a much more clear, direct military conflict between Israel
and Iran, which I don't think we'll see because neither
country really wants it. But if we were to see that,
then I think the US wouldn't have much choice but
to become involved at some stage.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Jessica, thank you so much for your insight today. I
really appreciate it. The short Naters
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