June 17, 2025 • 7 mins
Director, Strategic Analysis Australia think tank Peter Jennings joins Graeme Goodings on FIVEAA.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, the US may be about to join the strike
on Iran. The director of Strategic Analysis Austratia think tank
and former deputy director of the Defense Department, Peter Jennings,
says there are multiple reasons why Peter Jennings joins US now. Peter,
why do you think the US is about ready to strike?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
So, Graham, what we've seen in the last twenty four
thirty six hours or so is the Americans are moving
a significant amount of military platforms into place. Most interesting
for me something like twenty four it's where refueling aircraft
have moved from the East coast of the United States
over to European theaters closer to the Middle East, and
(00:42):
the US aircraft carrier limits is now sailing at top
speed something like thirty one knots across the Indian Ocean,
having been in the Pacific, moving up to the Mediterranean.
So it's very clear that what the Trump administration is
doing is they're getting the pieces into place that makes
it possible for the President to decide to engage in
(01:04):
military strikes. He can choose not to, but I think
the way this is now tending is that we'll see
America enter into the conflict, probably in the next three
or four days.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Although the President has denied it, it would seem that
he left the G seven summit early just to take
this sort of action.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yes, I think that's exactly right. And you know, he
could certainly make command decisions on Air Force one, but
he wants to be in the White House in the
situation room because that gives him probably real time video
access of various targets that they might be interested to hit,
and he needs to have the advice of his military commanders.
So that that's why he went back to Washington early.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
And would he have been in regular communication with the
Israeli Prime Minister about this. It's a reasonable assume that
Israel would be aware of the America's impending action.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Absolutely. I think this has been very closely coordinated. The
Americans said, look, we're not involved in the strikes, and
that is true up to now, but they have been
very heavily involved in other ways, which would include providing
intelligence to the Israelis about what to strike, doing satellite
(02:16):
based assessment of what was a particular strike successful, did
the Israeli Defense Force need to go back. They've also
had ships in the Mediterranean which have been shooting down
Iranian drones and missiles. So this has been very closely coordinated.
And that's because the Americans understand that Iran with nuclear
(02:37):
weapons as a threat not just to Israel but also
to the US itself and to many other countries, and
so they're working closely. Even though Israel has been leading
the actual military part of this activity in.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
His first term and early in his second term, the
President is very keen to point out that he has
not initiated any military action, so he would be loath
to do so. So he must be feeling that there
is no other course of action.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yes, I think he's feeling the burdens of office. Graham.
I think he comes to understand that isolationism doesn't actually
protect America's interests all the time. If you are the
world's largest economy and the only global superpower, from time
to time, you do have to become involved in military action.
So he's been cautious about it, and frankly, I think
(03:25):
that's too Trump's that credit. You know, you don't want
a president to be gung ho about military operations. But
this is an example where I think we will see
the US involved and if it helps to produce an
Iran which doesn't have nuclear weapons. That's too everybody's benefit.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
When it comes to the weaponry and firepower of Israel
and Iran, how do they stack up well?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
In the last twelve months, Israel has made enormous strikes
in being able to destroy Iranian air defense capabilities. And
I've done that on a couple of occasions. Back in
October last year when there was an Iranian a series
of missile strikes into Israel, and Israel used that as
an opportunity to go and destroy a lot of the
(04:14):
radar systems and missiles which Iran uses. And then earlier
this year, when Bashi Alasad was sort of wiped away
from his appalling regime in Syria, almost overnight, the Israelis
went in and destroyed a lot of Iranian military equipment
which was in Syria. And so when we come up
(04:36):
to today, in the last few days, it meant to
say that Iran had already been largely disarmed in terms
of its abilities to defend itself against Iranian Israeli air strikes.
And what Israel is doing now, in addition to going
after the nuclear research complex, is that they're taking out missiles,
they're taking out air defense sites, they're taking out senior
(04:58):
commanders of Theian military and other organizations. And you know,
right now Israel is clearly the dominant military force. But
between the two countries.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Well, despite Israel's superiority, why is it then they think
that Donald Trump sees the need to step in.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Well, there's a lot of commentary saying that there's one
thing Israel kant, and that is that it doesn't have
bombs frankly heavy enough and of a particular design that
they can burrow through meters and meters of rock to
get to know deeply buried Iranian nuclear research facilities at
a place called FORDU and one or two other places
(05:39):
as well. And it said that really only the Americans
have the bunker busting bombs. There's in particular a thirty
pound bomb which they've used in places like the Tora
Bora caves in Afghanistan to go after you know, deeply protected,
deeply buried vital sites. You know, my own view on
(06:03):
that gramus that I think Israelis probably have other things
that they can do, including cyber technology, which can do
a lot of damage in these areas. But when you're
talking about destroying nuclear capabilities. You really can't believe that's chance.
I think that's the number one objective of what America
would be involved in if it chooses to join this fight.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
So how far away do you think we are from
US striking on Iran three or four days?
Speaker 2 (06:31):
And I think that really has to do with just
making sure that the pieces are in place at the
edge of where refueling is there, the aircraft and logistics
are transferred to a point where they can conduct these operations,
and America has enough of a military strength in place
to make it clear to the Iranians that there shouldn't
be any military response from the Iranians. So let's say
(06:54):
towards the end of the weekend. I think that's probably
the time framework we're talking about.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Thanks so much for your time today. That's Director Strategic Analysis,
Australia think tank Peter Jennings on the five reasons he
has that the US could enter the Israel Iran conflict,
and his suggestion is that it will be within days.
So watch this space.
Well, the US may be about to join the strike
on Iran. The director of Strategic Analysis Austratia think tank
and former deputy director of the Defense Department, Peter Jennings,
says there are multiple reasons why Peter Jennings joins US now. Peter,
why do you think the US is about ready to strike?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
So, Graham, what we've seen in the last twenty four
thirty six hours or so is the Americans are moving
a significant amount of military platforms into place. Most interesting
for me something like twenty four it's where refueling aircraft
have moved from the East coast of the United States
over to European theaters closer to the Middle East, and
(00:42):
the US aircraft carrier limits is now sailing at top
speed something like thirty one knots across the Indian Ocean,
having been in the Pacific, moving up to the Mediterranean.
So it's very clear that what the Trump administration is
doing is they're getting the pieces into place that makes
it possible for the President to decide to engage in
(01:04):
military strikes. He can choose not to, but I think
the way this is now tending is that we'll see
America enter into the conflict, probably in the next three
or four days.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Although the President has denied it, it would seem that
he left the G seven summit early just to take
this sort of action.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yes, I think that's exactly right. And you know, he
could certainly make command decisions on Air Force one, but
he wants to be in the White House in the
situation room because that gives him probably real time video
access of various targets that they might be interested to hit,
and he needs to have the advice of his military commanders.
So that that's why he went back to Washington early.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
And would he have been in regular communication with the
Israeli Prime Minister about this. It's a reasonable assume that
Israel would be aware of the America's impending action.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Absolutely. I think this has been very closely coordinated. The
Americans said, look, we're not involved in the strikes, and
that is true up to now, but they have been
very heavily involved in other ways, which would include providing
intelligence to the Israelis about what to strike, doing satellite
(02:16):
based assessment of what was a particular strike successful, did
the Israeli Defense Force need to go back. They've also
had ships in the Mediterranean which have been shooting down
Iranian drones and missiles. So this has been very closely coordinated.
And that's because the Americans understand that Iran with nuclear
(02:37):
weapons as a threat not just to Israel but also
to the US itself and to many other countries, and
so they're working closely. Even though Israel has been leading
the actual military part of this activity in.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
His first term and early in his second term, the
President is very keen to point out that he has
not initiated any military action, so he would be loath
to do so. So he must be feeling that there
is no other course of action.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yes, I think he's feeling the burdens of office. Graham.
I think he comes to understand that isolationism doesn't actually
protect America's interests all the time. If you are the
world's largest economy and the only global superpower, from time
to time, you do have to become involved in military action.
So he's been cautious about it, and frankly, I think
(03:25):
that's too Trump's that credit. You know, you don't want
a president to be gung ho about military operations. But
this is an example where I think we will see
the US involved and if it helps to produce an
Iran which doesn't have nuclear weapons. That's too everybody's benefit.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
When it comes to the weaponry and firepower of Israel
and Iran, how do they stack up well?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
In the last twelve months, Israel has made enormous strikes
in being able to destroy Iranian air defense capabilities. And
I've done that on a couple of occasions. Back in
October last year when there was an Iranian a series
of missile strikes into Israel, and Israel used that as
an opportunity to go and destroy a lot of the
(04:14):
radar systems and missiles which Iran uses. And then earlier
this year, when Bashi Alasad was sort of wiped away
from his appalling regime in Syria, almost overnight, the Israelis
went in and destroyed a lot of Iranian military equipment
which was in Syria. And so when we come up
(04:36):
to today, in the last few days, it meant to
say that Iran had already been largely disarmed in terms
of its abilities to defend itself against Iranian Israeli air strikes.
And what Israel is doing now, in addition to going
after the nuclear research complex, is that they're taking out missiles,
they're taking out air defense sites, they're taking out senior
(04:58):
commanders of Theian military and other organizations. And you know,
right now Israel is clearly the dominant military force. But
between the two countries.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Well, despite Israel's superiority, why is it then they think
that Donald Trump sees the need to step in.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Well, there's a lot of commentary saying that there's one
thing Israel kant, and that is that it doesn't have
bombs frankly heavy enough and of a particular design that
they can burrow through meters and meters of rock to
get to know deeply buried Iranian nuclear research facilities at
a place called FORDU and one or two other places
(05:39):
as well. And it said that really only the Americans
have the bunker busting bombs. There's in particular a thirty
pound bomb which they've used in places like the Tora
Bora caves in Afghanistan to go after you know, deeply protected,
deeply buried vital sites. You know, my own view on
(06:03):
that gramus that I think Israelis probably have other things
that they can do, including cyber technology, which can do
a lot of damage in these areas. But when you're
talking about destroying nuclear capabilities. You really can't believe that's chance.
I think that's the number one objective of what America
would be involved in if it chooses to join this fight.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
So how far away do you think we are from
US striking on Iran three or four days?
Speaker 2 (06:31):
And I think that really has to do with just
making sure that the pieces are in place at the
edge of where refueling is there, the aircraft and logistics
are transferred to a point where they can conduct these operations,
and America has enough of a military strength in place
to make it clear to the Iranians that there shouldn't
be any military response from the Iranians. So let's say
(06:54):
towards the end of the weekend. I think that's probably
the time framework we're talking about.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Thanks so much for your time today. That's Director Strategic Analysis,
Australia think tank Peter Jennings on the five reasons he
has that the US could enter the Israel Iran conflict,
and his suggestion is that it will be within days.
So watch this space.
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