March 30, 2025 • 16 mins
Housing costs face a perfect storm as immigration policies and global trade tariffs converge, potentially driving up both labor and material expenses for anyone buying, selling, or renovating a home.
• Immigration policies could significantly impact construction labor pools
• In states like Texas and California, immigrants make up over 50% of construction workers
• Undocumented workers represent 13% of construction workforce nationally
• Average construction wages ($25/hour) often insufficient in high-cost metropolitan areas
• Americans largely believe immigrants take jobs citizens don't want
• Over 26% of construction industry relies on immigrant workers
• Proposed tariffs include 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods, 10% on Chinese imports
• Approximately one-third of US construction materials come from overseas
• Essential materials affected include cement, lumber, steel, insulation, and electrical equipment
• Manufacturing employment has declined 35% since 1979, losing 6.7 million jobs
• Economic challenges affect homebuyers, with outdated properties selling for $500,000+
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Okay, so you know you guys have sent in some really
interesting stuff for us to lookinto this time and you know I
think this time it's all abouthousing, yeah, and you know all
the things that might be comingto kind of shake things up when
it comes to you know, buying orselling or building a home, or
even just like the cost of youknow doing renovations and stuff
(00:20):
like that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, you know this is something that affects you,
whether you are a homeowner ornot.
Like if you're renting, you'regoing to see the cost of renting
going up.
If you're a homeowner,obviously home values are tied
to the cost of construction aswell.
So you know this affects us all.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, absolutely, and I think the thing that's so
fascinating about thisparticular set of you know
sources and everything that youguys sent in is that it kind of
brings together two really bigareas that you know people are
talking about a lot right now,which is, you know immigration
policy and you know global tradeand things like tariffs.
Right, so it's like, how dothese two things kind of you
(00:59):
know, play into the cost ofhousing?
And it's so fascinating, sowe've got this transcript here
from a Saks Realty YouTube videoand it's called Housing Market
Prepares for Higher Costs fromTariffs and Mass Deportation.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Oh, wow.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
So I mean, they're not really mincing words, right.
They're just kind of comingright out and saying, you know,
like hey, there's some bigchanges coming and this is how
it could potentially affect thecost of housing.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, the title is definitely attention grabbing.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
It is.
Yeah, it is.
It's definitely attentiongrabbing and, and you know, what
I really appreciate about theway that they approach it in the
video is that you know theykind of break it down into two
really key areas.
And that's what we're going todo in this deep dive is we're
going to look at, you know, whatcould happen to labor costs and
how that could affect housingif we see some of these.
You know, immigration policychanges come to fruition, and
(01:48):
then also what happens tomaterials.
You know, if we see, you knowtrade wars and tariffs and
things like that.
So let's start with labor,because I think that's the thing
that people are talking aboutthe most right now.
It's just like, you know, isthere going to be enough people
to actually like build housesand do renovations if, you know
certain immigration policies areimplemented?
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Right, and this is something the video does a
really good job of diving into.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
You know, they cite a Wall Street Journal article and
I believe this is from December3rd and it points out that in
states like Texas, oh wow.
California, new Jersey, yeah,and even DC.
Immigrants make up more thanhalf of the construction trade
workers.
Wow that immigrants make upmore than half of the
construction trade workers.
Wow, that's huge, that's a bignumber, that's a lot.
Yeah, I mean, that just showsyou how reliant the construction
industry is on immigrant labor.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, it's not even just a little bit, it's like
more than half.
It's pretty significant and thevideo also brings up some
research from Rae Wynn Frost atthe Harvard Joint Center for
Housing Studies and they're kindof echoing this point about the
reliance on immigrant labor inthese key areas.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Yeah, and I think what's also interesting is this
video points out a Pew ResearchCenter estimate that suggests
undocumented workers alone makeup something like 13% of the
construction industry nationwide.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Thirteen percent.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Just undocumented, just undocumented workers, and
that's more than double theirshare in the overall US
workforce.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah.
So basically what they'resaying is that you know, if you
take away that 13 percent,you're taking away more than
double the amount of people thatthey represent in other
industries.
Exactly, that's a huge chunk ofthe workforce represent in other
industries.
Exactly, that's a huge chunk ofthe workforce and I think that
you know this is where theargument from the construction
industry comes in and they'vebeen saying this for a long time
is that you know a lot ofAmericans just don't want these
jobs, right, and you know theydon't have the skills or you
(03:34):
know they might not be willingto work for the wages that are
being offered.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yeah, and I think that's that's a really key point
.
You know, the video evenmentioned some figures from Zip
Recruiter I think about $25 anhour nationally and about $24 in
Maryland.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Okay, so you know, it sounds like decent money, right
, yeah, $25 an hour.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, on the surface it does, but-.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
But the thing that they bring up in the video that
I think is so important is likeokay, $25 an hour nationally,
but then if you think about,like where are these big
construction projects happening?
They're happening in majormetropolitan areas where the
cost of living is so high that$25 an hour doesn't really go
that far.
You know, if you're trying tolive in New York or San
(04:20):
Francisco, or even you know DC,where we're talking about, you
know $25 an hour then that mightnot even be enough to cover
your rent.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
And that's if you're living by yourself.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Right, it's like $25 an hour.
Doesn't really get you thatmuch in some of these places.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, and you know, and you know that brings up that
that question like if, if alarge portion of that workforce
is no longer available due to,you know, potential mass
deportations, you know what'sthat going to do to the cost of
construction?
Speaker 1 (04:51):
It's like is anybody going to be able to afford to
build anything or get anythingrenovated?
I mean it's it's a really validquestion and I think that you
know the article that they bringup from Pew Research Org is
really interesting too, becauseit's kind of like trying to get
at the public perception of thisissue and it's from October
21st and it's called Most USVoters Say Immigrants, no Matter
(05:12):
their Legal Status, mostly TakeJobs Citizens Don't Want.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So it's like are they right?
Are these construction industryfolks right when they say, like
Americans just don't want thesejobs?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
And it seems like you know, the public perception, at
least according to this article, is that they're, that they are
.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
That they are.
Yeah, so it's like if we takeaway this workforce, who's going
to fill that gap?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Right.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
And I think that the data that they bring in from the
Census Bureau is reallyinteresting too, because it's
like OK, so let's just look atthe numbers.
You know what percentage ofimmigrant workers are in these
different industries.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yeah, and they pull this analysis from 2022.
And you know, the one thatstood out to me was agriculture,
forestry, fishing and hunting.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Oh, wow.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
At 27 percent.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
That's huge.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
With construction right behind it, at 26% 26,
that's a quarter of theworkforce.
So we're not talking about youknow small numbers here.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yeah, these are big numbers and it kind of like I
don't know.
For me it just like reinforcesthat point that they're making
in the video, which is that thisis a pretty integral part of
the workforce, and then theyeven break it down further into
specific occupations.
They're looking at theunauthorized immigrant workers
in 2022.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Right and some of these jobs drywall and ceiling
tile installers, roofers,painters.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Yeah, agricultural workers.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
It's like you know, the people that are literally
building the houses.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Right.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
The ground level work .
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Construction laborers , maids and housekeeping
cleaners.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
So it's like it's not just construction, it's like
other industries, too, that are,you know, reliant on on this
workforce.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Right.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
And the percentages are, you know, they range from
like a quarter to a third ofthose workforce.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That's a huge percent it is.
It's a big number and it kindof like makes me wonder, you
know, like OK, so if we take allthese people away, are we
really prepared, as consumers,to pay a lot more for these
services?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, I mean, that's the question right.
Like are we going to see, youknow, a surge in DIY projects if
hiring a contractor becomes,like crazy expensive?
Speaker 1 (07:21):
That's a good point.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Right.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Or are we going to see, you know, like I don't know
, maybe like a bigger push toencourage, you know, younger
generations to go into thesetrades?
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Right, and then maybe we see, you know, wages go up
significantly in these fields,which could make them more
attractive.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Right, it's like it could actually be a good thing
for the people who are doing thework.
Potentially, yeah, but but thenis it going to make housing,
you know, astronomicallyexpensive.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Right, exactly so.
There's these tradeoffs thatyou know we have to consider.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah, there's definitely tradeoffs, and I
think you know what the videodoes really well is.
It kind of lays out both sidesof the argument and then it's
like, ok, now it's up to you todecide, like what do you think
is going to happen and what areyou going to do about it?
Right, but then they shiftgears a little bit and they
start talking about materials.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Right.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Which I think is the other really big piece of this
puzzle.
You know like OK, so if laboris potentially going to get more
expensive, what about all thestuff that you need to actually
build a house?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Yeah, because I mean labor is one thing, but if the
cost of lumber goes through theroof, Literally.
Literally, literally, right,then you know you're talking
about a significant increase inthe overall cost of housing.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Absolutely.
This is where the whole liketariff conversation comes in,
because they bring upPresident-elect Trump's stated
potential tariffs, which are 25percent on goods from Canada and
Mexico Wow and 10 percent ongoods from China.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
That's huge.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
That's a lot, and these are, like, our major
trading partners, you know, forbuilding materials.
Like this is where we get a lotof our stuff.
Yeah, and they bring up a WallStreet Journal article from
November 27th and it's calledLumber Prices Unmoved by Trump's
Canada Tariff Threat.
But it's like, ok, so eventhough there was this kind of
initial like, oh, maybe it's notgoing to be a big deal, the
article also acknowledges that,like, if these tariffs actually
go into effect, it's very likelythat prices are going to go up
(09:13):
for US buyers.
Yeah, and this is on top of youknow, the fact that we're
already dealing withaffordability issues, so it's
like another layer of potential.
You know cost increases.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Absolutely, and you know.
To kind of emphasize that point, they bring in an article from
February from Constructioncomand it's titled Buy America
Provisions can improveconstruction lead times for a
price.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Oh, interesting.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So you know they're already acknowledging there that
if you want to buy American inyou're going to have to pay a
premium.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Right.
So it's like OK, so buyAmerican, but be prepared to pay
more.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
And what's really interesting is that the article
estimates that about a third ofthe materials used in US
construction projects areactually made overseas.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
A third.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
A third.
It's not like a little bit,it's a lot.
And then they go on to listsome of these key materials that
we get from, you know, othercountries Cement, lumber, steel,
insulation, electricalequipment.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Yeah, it's like the essential ingredients for a
house.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, it's like you can't really build a house
without these things.
And then they kind of go onthis really interesting argument
about, like, bringingmanufacturing back to the US.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Yeah, it's a whole reshoring argument.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Yeah, and they're kind of like, you know, looking
back at this time when the USwas this huge manufacturing
powerhouse, especially likebefore the 1980s, and it's like
that were this pride associatedwith, you know, made in the USA
right, look, it meant something,it meant something, yeah, and,
and you know they connect thisto, like, the millions of
manufacturing jobs that havebeen lost since the 1970s.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Right, all those jobs that went overseas.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Yeah, and they're saying that that's a big part of
the reason why we've seen, likeyou know, stagnant wage growth
and and why so many Americansare struggling financially.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
And they cite some statistics from Rehornoorg.
They estimate that somewherebetween three and five million
manufacturing jobs have beenlost to offshoring since 1979.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
That's a lot of jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
That's a huge number.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
And they say that potentially a similar number of
jobs could be created throughreshoring efforts.
Yeah, and then you know.
To kind of back that up, theybring in data from the Bureau of
Labor and Statistics whichconfirms that manufacturing
employment has seen a prettysteep decline over the past 40
years or so.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Yeah, because we've kind of shifted to more of a
service-based economy, right,it's like we're not really
making things as much anymore.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
And they point to a specific data point from the BLS
.
They say that manufacturingemployment peaked at 19.6
million in June of 1979.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
1979.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, but then by June of 2019, it had fallen to
12.8 million.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
So that's a loss of what like almost 7 million jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yes, 6.7 million jobs , which is about a 35 percent
decrease.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
So it's like, basically, what they're saying
is that we've lost more than athird of our manufacturing jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
In that time period, yeah.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
That's a huge shift.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
It's a huge shift.
It's a massive shift and youknow, the speaker in the video
really emphasizes the connectionbetween that decline in
domestic manufacturing and thekind of overall economic
well-being of the middle classand the lower class.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Yeah, it's like if you don't have those good paying
manufacturing jobs, then whathappens to everybody?
Else Right manufacturing jobsthan what happens to everybody
else.
And you know, one thing thatthey bring up that I thought was
really interesting is thatafter each of the five
recessions since 1979,manufacturing employment never
fully recovered to itspre-recession levels.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
So it's like a downward trend, it's like a
downward trend.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It's not like it goes down and then comes back up.
It's like it goes down and thenkind of stays down.
And I think that the main pointthat they're trying to make
here is that, you know,understanding this historical
context is really important forunderstanding.
You know where we are today andwhat the potential, you know
solutions might be.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, because you know you can't just ignore the
past.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Yeah, you can't just ignore the past and then they
kind of bring it back to theirown personal experience.
You know, as a real estatebroker 35 experience.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
You know as a real estate broker 35 years in the
industry 35 years Wow, you knowthey've seen a lot of changes.
Yeah, and they're talking about.
You know all the challengesthat they see on a daily basis,
like high housing costs,increasing insurance and
property taxes, and you knowthose rising building imperial
prices that we've been talkingabout.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Right.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
And they even tell this really interesting story
about seeing this.
You know, outdated, overpriced,$500,000 home.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
And it's like you know, you're paying $500,000 for
this house.
That's not even that great, andit's like you know this is.
This is the reality that we'reliving in right now.
Yeah, it's tough, it is toughand it kind of makes me think
about, like all the people whoare trying to buy their first
home or even just trying to makeends meet, and it's like how
(13:52):
are we supposed to make thiswork?
Yeah, that's a really goodquestion.
And speaking of the financialaspects of housing, we want to
take a moment to thank oursponsor, flowers Associates
Property Rentals yes,specializing in special needs
housing.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Robert Flowers, the founder of Flowers Associates,
is also a well-respected authorin the field of real estate.
Investing With books like FromSetback to Comeback.
Finding your Resiliency inTough Times, available now on
Amazon.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
Finding your Resiliency in Tough Times
available now on Amazon.
So you know, if you're lookingfor property rentals that really
understand diverse needs or ifyou're just interested in you
know Robert Flowers' insights onreal estate investing, you can
reach Flowers Associates at901-445-8148 or visit
flowersandassociatesbookingcom.
Yeah, so you know we've talkedabout these two major potential
(14:52):
cost increases.
You know the labor side ofthings and then the materials,
and it's clear from the SaksRealty video that you know these
are these of coming together atthe same time it's a perfect
store.
It's kind of like a perfectstorm, and it's like you know
how, how are we gonna weatherthis storm right?
And and you know, just to beclear, like all the information
that we've talked about todaycomes directly from you know the
source material that you guyssent in right, we're just trying
to distill it down yeah, we'rejust trying to distill it down
(15:14):
and make sense of it and, youknow, hopefully give you guys,
guys, some food for thought.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
But, you know, as we wrap up this deep dive, I think
the question that I'm left withis like OK, so, given all of
these potential pressures on thehousing market you know, rising
labor costs, rising materialcosts, like what are the
solutions?
Speaker 2 (15:35):
What are the innovative solutions or policy
changes that could help toensure that you know affordable
and quality housing remainsaccessible for everybody?
Speaker 1 (15:45):
It's a big question, it is a huge question and
there's no easy answers.
There's no easy answers, but Ithink it's a conversation that
we need to be having.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
And you know, I'm really curious to hear what you
guys think.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Yeah, let us know your thoughts.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Yeah, leave us a comment, let us know what you
think and you know, let's keepthis conversation going.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
And thanks for joining us for this deep dive.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Thanks for listening everybody.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
See you next time.
Bye.
Okay, so you know you guys have sent in some really
interesting stuff for us to lookinto this time and you know I
think this time it's all abouthousing, yeah, and you know all
the things that might be comingto kind of shake things up when
it comes to you know, buying orselling or building a home, or
even just like the cost of youknow doing renovations and stuff
(00:20):
like that.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, you know this is something that affects you,
whether you are a homeowner ornot.
Like if you're renting, you'regoing to see the cost of renting
going up.
If you're a homeowner,obviously home values are tied
to the cost of construction aswell.
So you know this affects us all.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, absolutely, and I think the thing that's so
fascinating about thisparticular set of you know
sources and everything that youguys sent in is that it kind of
brings together two really bigareas that you know people are
talking about a lot right now,which is, you know immigration
policy and you know global tradeand things like tariffs.
Right, so it's like, how dothese two things kind of you
(00:59):
know, play into the cost ofhousing?
And it's so fascinating, sowe've got this transcript here
from a Saks Realty YouTube videoand it's called Housing Market
Prepares for Higher Costs fromTariffs and Mass Deportation.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Oh, wow.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
So I mean, they're not really mincing words, right.
They're just kind of comingright out and saying, you know,
like hey, there's some bigchanges coming and this is how
it could potentially affect thecost of housing.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yeah, the title is definitely attention grabbing.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
It is.
Yeah, it is.
It's definitely attentiongrabbing and, and you know, what
I really appreciate about theway that they approach it in the
video is that you know theykind of break it down into two
really key areas.
And that's what we're going todo in this deep dive is we're
going to look at, you know, whatcould happen to labor costs and
how that could affect housingif we see some of these.
You know, immigration policychanges come to fruition, and
(01:48):
then also what happens tomaterials.
You know, if we see, you knowtrade wars and tariffs and
things like that.
So let's start with labor,because I think that's the thing
that people are talking aboutthe most right now.
It's just like, you know, isthere going to be enough people
to actually like build housesand do renovations if, you know
certain immigration policies areimplemented?
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Right, and this is something the video does a
really good job of diving into.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
You know, they cite a Wall Street Journal article and
I believe this is from December3rd and it points out that in
states like Texas, oh wow.
California, new Jersey, yeah,and even DC.
Immigrants make up more thanhalf of the construction trade
workers.
Wow that immigrants make upmore than half of the
construction trade workers.
Wow, that's huge, that's a bignumber, that's a lot.
Yeah, I mean, that just showsyou how reliant the construction
industry is on immigrant labor.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Yeah, it's not even just a little bit, it's like
more than half.
It's pretty significant and thevideo also brings up some
research from Rae Wynn Frost atthe Harvard Joint Center for
Housing Studies and they're kindof echoing this point about the
reliance on immigrant labor inthese key areas.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Yeah, and I think what's also interesting is this
video points out a Pew ResearchCenter estimate that suggests
undocumented workers alone makeup something like 13% of the
construction industry nationwide.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Thirteen percent.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Just undocumented, just undocumented workers, and
that's more than double theirshare in the overall US
workforce.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah.
So basically what they'resaying is that you know, if you
take away that 13 percent,you're taking away more than
double the amount of people thatthey represent in other
industries.
Exactly, that's a huge chunk ofthe workforce represent in other
industries.
Exactly, that's a huge chunk ofthe workforce and I think that
you know this is where theargument from the construction
industry comes in and they'vebeen saying this for a long time
is that you know a lot ofAmericans just don't want these
jobs, right, and you know theydon't have the skills or you
(03:34):
know they might not be willingto work for the wages that are
being offered.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yeah, and I think that's that's a really key point
.
You know, the video evenmentioned some figures from Zip
Recruiter I think about $25 anhour nationally and about $24 in
Maryland.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
Okay, so you know, it sounds like decent money, right
, yeah, $25 an hour.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, on the surface it does, but-.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
But the thing that they bring up in the video that
I think is so important is likeokay, $25 an hour nationally,
but then if you think about,like where are these big
construction projects happening?
They're happening in majormetropolitan areas where the
cost of living is so high that$25 an hour doesn't really go
that far.
You know, if you're trying tolive in New York or San
(04:20):
Francisco, or even you know DC,where we're talking about, you
know $25 an hour then that mightnot even be enough to cover
your rent.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
And that's if you're living by yourself.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Right.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Right, it's like $25 an hour.
Doesn't really get you thatmuch in some of these places.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, and you know, and you know that brings up that
that question like if, if alarge portion of that workforce
is no longer available due to,you know, potential mass
deportations, you know what'sthat going to do to the cost of
construction?
Speaker 1 (04:51):
It's like is anybody going to be able to afford to
build anything or get anythingrenovated?
I mean it's it's a really validquestion and I think that you
know the article that they bringup from Pew Research Org is
really interesting too, becauseit's kind of like trying to get
at the public perception of thisissue and it's from October
21st and it's called Most USVoters Say Immigrants, no Matter
(05:12):
their Legal Status, mostly TakeJobs Citizens Don't Want.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
So it's like are they right?
Are these construction industryfolks right when they say, like
Americans just don't want thesejobs?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
And it seems like you know, the public perception, at
least according to this article, is that they're, that they are
.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
That they are.
Yeah, so it's like if we takeaway this workforce, who's going
to fill that gap?
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Right.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
And I think that the data that they bring in from the
Census Bureau is reallyinteresting too, because it's
like OK, so let's just look atthe numbers.
You know what percentage ofimmigrant workers are in these
different industries.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yeah, and they pull this analysis from 2022.
And you know, the one thatstood out to me was agriculture,
forestry, fishing and hunting.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Oh, wow.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
At 27 percent.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
That's huge.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
With construction right behind it, at 26% 26,
that's a quarter of theworkforce.
So we're not talking about youknow small numbers here.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Yeah, these are big numbers and it kind of like I
don't know.
For me it just like reinforcesthat point that they're making
in the video, which is that thisis a pretty integral part of
the workforce, and then theyeven break it down further into
specific occupations.
They're looking at theunauthorized immigrant workers
in 2022.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Right and some of these jobs drywall and ceiling
tile installers, roofers,painters.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Yeah, agricultural workers.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
It's like you know, the people that are literally
building the houses.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Right.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
The ground level work .
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Construction laborers , maids and housekeeping
cleaners.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
So it's like it's not just construction, it's like
other industries, too, that are,you know, reliant on on this
workforce.
Speaker 1 (06:50):
Right.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
And the percentages are, you know, they range from
like a quarter to a third ofthose workforce.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
That's a huge percent it is.
It's a big number and it kindof like makes me wonder, you
know, like OK, so if we take allthese people away, are we
really prepared, as consumers,to pay a lot more for these
services?
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Yeah, I mean, that's the question right.
Like are we going to see, youknow, a surge in DIY projects if
hiring a contractor becomes,like crazy expensive?
Speaker 1 (07:21):
That's a good point.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Right.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Or are we going to see, you know, like I don't know
, maybe like a bigger push toencourage, you know, younger
generations to go into thesetrades?
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Right, and then maybe we see, you know, wages go up
significantly in these fields,which could make them more
attractive.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
Right, it's like it could actually be a good thing
for the people who are doing thework.
Potentially, yeah, but but thenis it going to make housing,
you know, astronomicallyexpensive.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Right, exactly so.
There's these tradeoffs thatyou know we have to consider.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah, there's definitely tradeoffs, and I
think you know what the videodoes really well is.
It kind of lays out both sidesof the argument and then it's
like, ok, now it's up to you todecide, like what do you think
is going to happen and what areyou going to do about it?
Right, but then they shiftgears a little bit and they
start talking about materials.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
Right.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Which I think is the other really big piece of this
puzzle.
You know like OK, so if laboris potentially going to get more
expensive, what about all thestuff that you need to actually
build a house?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
Yeah, because I mean labor is one thing, but if the
cost of lumber goes through theroof, Literally.
Literally, literally, right,then you know you're talking
about a significant increase inthe overall cost of housing.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Absolutely.
This is where the whole liketariff conversation comes in,
because they bring upPresident-elect Trump's stated
potential tariffs, which are 25percent on goods from Canada and
Mexico Wow and 10 percent ongoods from China.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
That's huge.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
That's a lot, and these are, like, our major
trading partners, you know, forbuilding materials.
Like this is where we get a lotof our stuff.
Yeah, and they bring up a WallStreet Journal article from
November 27th and it's calledLumber Prices Unmoved by Trump's
Canada Tariff Threat.
But it's like, ok, so eventhough there was this kind of
initial like, oh, maybe it's notgoing to be a big deal, the
article also acknowledges that,like, if these tariffs actually
go into effect, it's very likelythat prices are going to go up
(09:13):
for US buyers.
Yeah, and this is on top of youknow, the fact that we're
already dealing withaffordability issues, so it's
like another layer of potential.
You know cost increases.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Absolutely, and you know.
To kind of emphasize that point, they bring in an article from
February from Constructioncomand it's titled Buy America
Provisions can improveconstruction lead times for a
price.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Oh, interesting.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So you know they're already acknowledging there that
if you want to buy American inyou're going to have to pay a
premium.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Right.
So it's like OK, so buyAmerican, but be prepared to pay
more.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
And what's really interesting is that the article
estimates that about a third ofthe materials used in US
construction projects areactually made overseas.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
A third.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
A third.
It's not like a little bit,it's a lot.
And then they go on to listsome of these key materials that
we get from, you know, othercountries Cement, lumber, steel,
insulation, electricalequipment.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Yeah, it's like the essential ingredients for a
house.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, it's like you can't really build a house
without these things.
And then they kind of go onthis really interesting argument
about, like, bringingmanufacturing back to the US.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Yeah, it's a whole reshoring argument.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Yeah, and they're kind of like, you know, looking
back at this time when the USwas this huge manufacturing
powerhouse, especially likebefore the 1980s, and it's like
that were this pride associatedwith, you know, made in the USA
right, look, it meant something,it meant something, yeah, and,
and you know they connect thisto, like, the millions of
manufacturing jobs that havebeen lost since the 1970s.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Right, all those jobs that went overseas.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Yeah, and they're saying that that's a big part of
the reason why we've seen, likeyou know, stagnant wage growth
and and why so many Americansare struggling financially.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
And they cite some statistics from Rehornoorg.
They estimate that somewherebetween three and five million
manufacturing jobs have beenlost to offshoring since 1979.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
That's a lot of jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
That's a huge number.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
And they say that potentially a similar number of
jobs could be created throughreshoring efforts.
Yeah, and then you know.
To kind of back that up, theybring in data from the Bureau of
Labor and Statistics whichconfirms that manufacturing
employment has seen a prettysteep decline over the past 40
years or so.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Yeah, because we've kind of shifted to more of a
service-based economy, right,it's like we're not really
making things as much anymore.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
And they point to a specific data point from the BLS
.
They say that manufacturingemployment peaked at 19.6
million in June of 1979.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
1979.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, but then by June of 2019, it had fallen to
12.8 million.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
So that's a loss of what like almost 7 million jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yes, 6.7 million jobs , which is about a 35 percent
decrease.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
So it's like, basically, what they're saying
is that we've lost more than athird of our manufacturing jobs.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
In that time period, yeah.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
That's a huge shift.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
It's a huge shift.
It's a massive shift and youknow, the speaker in the video
really emphasizes the connectionbetween that decline in
domestic manufacturing and thekind of overall economic
well-being of the middle classand the lower class.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
Yeah, it's like if you don't have those good paying
manufacturing jobs, then whathappens to everybody?
Else Right manufacturing jobsthan what happens to everybody
else.
And you know, one thing thatthey bring up that I thought was
really interesting is thatafter each of the five
recessions since 1979,manufacturing employment never
fully recovered to itspre-recession levels.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
So it's like a downward trend, it's like a
downward trend.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It's not like it goes down and then comes back up.
It's like it goes down and thenkind of stays down.
And I think that the main pointthat they're trying to make
here is that, you know,understanding this historical
context is really important forunderstanding.
You know where we are today andwhat the potential, you know
solutions might be.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, because you know you can't just ignore the
past.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Yeah, you can't just ignore the past and then they
kind of bring it back to theirown personal experience.
You know, as a real estatebroker 35 experience.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
You know as a real estate broker 35 years in the
industry 35 years Wow, you knowthey've seen a lot of changes.
Yeah, and they're talking about.
You know all the challengesthat they see on a daily basis,
like high housing costs,increasing insurance and
property taxes, and you knowthose rising building imperial
prices that we've been talkingabout.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Right.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
And they even tell this really interesting story
about seeing this.
You know, outdated, overpriced,$500,000 home.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
And it's like you know, you're paying $500,000 for
this house.
That's not even that great, andit's like you know this is.
This is the reality that we'reliving in right now.
Yeah, it's tough, it is toughand it kind of makes me think
about, like all the people whoare trying to buy their first
home or even just trying to makeends meet, and it's like how
(13:52):
are we supposed to make thiswork?
Yeah, that's a really goodquestion.
And speaking of the financialaspects of housing, we want to
take a moment to thank oursponsor, flowers Associates
Property Rentals yes,specializing in special needs
housing.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Robert Flowers, the founder of Flowers Associates,
is also a well-respected authorin the field of real estate.
Investing With books like FromSetback to Comeback.
Finding your Resiliency inTough Times, available now on
Amazon.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
Finding your Resiliency in Tough Times
available now on Amazon.
So you know, if you're lookingfor property rentals that really
understand diverse needs or ifyou're just interested in you
know Robert Flowers' insights onreal estate investing, you can
reach Flowers Associates at901-445-8148 or visit
flowersandassociatesbookingcom.
Yeah, so you know we've talkedabout these two major potential
(14:52):
cost increases.
You know the labor side ofthings and then the materials,
and it's clear from the SaksRealty video that you know these
are these of coming together atthe same time it's a perfect
store.
It's kind of like a perfectstorm, and it's like you know
how, how are we gonna weatherthis storm right?
And and you know, just to beclear, like all the information
that we've talked about todaycomes directly from you know the
source material that you guyssent in right, we're just trying
to distill it down yeah, we'rejust trying to distill it down
(15:14):
and make sense of it and, youknow, hopefully give you guys,
guys, some food for thought.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
But, you know, as we wrap up this deep dive, I think
the question that I'm left withis like OK, so, given all of
these potential pressures on thehousing market you know, rising
labor costs, rising materialcosts, like what are the
solutions?
Speaker 2 (15:35):
What are the innovative solutions or policy
changes that could help toensure that you know affordable
and quality housing remainsaccessible for everybody?
Speaker 1 (15:45):
It's a big question, it is a huge question and
there's no easy answers.
There's no easy answers, but Ithink it's a conversation that
we need to be having.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
And you know, I'm really curious to hear what you
guys think.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
Yeah, let us know your thoughts.
Speaker 1 (15:58):
Yeah, leave us a comment, let us know what you
think and you know, let's keepthis conversation going.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
And thanks for joining us for this deep dive.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
Thanks for listening everybody.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
See you next time.
Bye.
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