June 27, 2025 • 19 mins
Episode 24: Calculated RiskIn this episode of Philosophy of Life, Reza Sanjideh explores what it means to take a calculated risk — in war, in business, and in life. From Abraham Lincoln’s bold gamble during the Civil War to the rise of China as a global superpower, this episode examines how philosophy can guide critical decisions when the stakes are high. It’s a call for clarity, courage, and strategic thinking — especially for the next generation in Iran and across the Middle East.
my email address gholamrezava@gmail.com
Twitter account is @rezava
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Welcome to another episode of Philosophy of Life.
I'm your host Reza Sanjide.
In this podcast, we don't justtalk about ideas, we explore how
philosophy helps us survive,lead, and grow.
(00:24):
Today's episode is calledCalculated Risk.
It's a continuation of my lastepisode, which was a bit unusual
podcast, did follow my typicalpattern.
We stepped into the long shadowof war, its impact, and the duty
we carry when history calls usto choose.
I felt it was necessary to staywith that theme just a little
(00:46):
longer, because open dialogue,especially in difficult times,
matters.
And this episode is about makingdecisions that shape not just
survival, but Let's begin.
So, here we are again, back onthe battlefield.
(01:17):
Not just of war, but of choices.
The kind of choices that shape alife, or change the fate of a
nation.
In the last episode, we exploredIran, not just its politics, but
its But it's people, it's pain,it's pride, and the unspoken
duty we carry when our homelandis under threat.
(01:38):
But today, we're shifting thefocus.
Because this isn't just aboutdefending a country.
It's about defending somethingdeeper.
The decision itself.
The choice to act or to staysilent.
To resist or to retreat.
To move forward or to freeze.
And how, without philosophy toguide you, You're not leading
(02:00):
your life.
You're just gambling with it.
Let me ask you something.
When war comes to your door, orwhen life does, what are you
using to make your choices?
Fear?
Pride?
A quick gut reaction?
Or do you pause and calculatethe risk?
Philosophy is not a luxury.
(02:22):
It's not an abstract game forold men in dusty libraries.
It's a tool, maybe the mostpowerful one, Thank you.
(03:00):
In 1862, the United States wasbleeding.
A nation divided North versusSouth.
But the deeper war wasn't justbetween armies.
It was between two systems, twophilosophies.
The South ran on slavery, aneconomy built on agriculture,
cotton and forced labor, afeudal structure serving
(03:22):
European industry.
The North was shifting towardfactories, steel, cities and
capital.
Lincoln wasn't just trying topreserve the Union.
He wanted to redefine it.
He waited for the right moment,for the right military victory.
And then he issued theEmancipation Proclamation, a
(03:42):
bold moral stand, but also astrategic one.
It wasn't just about endingslavery.
It was about dismantling theSouth's economy, cutting off its
labor engine, and reshapingAmerica's trajectory.
At the same time, Lincoln waslaying the foundation for an
industrial future, moving fromfeudalism toward capitalism.
(04:07):
It was a massive risk.
Britain and France werewatching.
They needed southern cotton.
They didn't support slavery, butthey relied on cheap
agriculture.
If they had recognized theConfederacy, the war could have
ended very differently.
But Lincoln and the Union stoodfirm, gave their blood to a hat,
(04:29):
they refused to take off.
And in the end, they didn't justwin a war, they changed the path
of the world.
In Iran, we've paid for everymiscalculation, not just in
(04:52):
theory, in blood, in exile, ingenerations growing up with the
consequence of rushed decisionsand short-sighted revolutions.
I remember the chants, the hope,people shouting for a better
tomorrow, but they were shoutingwith emotion, not calculation.
(05:12):
And when the smoke cleared, manyof us realized too late.
We hadn't planned for the dayafter.
We didn't ask who would takepower.
We didn't ask what systems wouldbe rebuilt.
That's the danger of fightingwith passion and not philosophy,
because you can win the battleand lose the future.
(05:35):
Philosophy wouldn't have stoppedthe revolution, but it might
have made it smarter, morestrategic, more humane.
This idea of calculated riskdoesn't stop at revolutions or
(05:58):
presidents.
It shows up in your everydaylife, in your business, in your
relationships, in your health,in your career.
Because life itself is a seriesof risks, some small, some
massive, but all of them askingthe same thing.
Are you thinking this through orjust reacting?
(06:19):
Let's take business.
Every time you start somethingnew, You're walking into
uncertainty.
There's no guarantee.
Statistically, most businessesfail within the first five
years.
But the difference betweenfailure and success isn't always
luck or money, as whether therisk was calculated or careless.
(06:40):
Take Steve Jobs.
When he returned to Apple in1997, it was a sinking ship.
Too many products.
No focus.
No soul.
But Jobs didn't panic.
He simplified.
He refocused.
And he bet everything on a bold,intuitive idea.
That design matters.
(07:01):
That experience matters.
That simplicity wins.
The iMac wasn't just a product.
It was a philosophical reset.
He didn't try to be everythingto everyone.
He chose clarity over chaos.
And that decision rebuilt Apple.
Now take Jeff Bezos.
He walked away from a secureWall Street career to sell books
(07:22):
online, at a time when theinternet was a joke to most
people.
But Bezos wasn't guessing.
He was asking long-termquestions.
What do people always want?
Lower prices, faster delivery,convenience.
And from that, he built Amazon.
Not by chasing quarterlyprofits, but by trusting a
(07:44):
philosophy of patience, scale,and relentless customer focus.
For years, they didn't even turna profit.
And yet, they built an empire.
But even giants stumble whenthey ignore the map.
Let's look at Samsung, apowerhouse in electronics,
(08:05):
phones, TVs, chips, appliances,almost everything they.
Touch turns to gold.
So in the 1990s, they asked, whynot build cars?
They launched Samsung Motorswith confidence they could
disrupt the auto industry.
But they were wrong.
They underestimated thecomplexities, government
(08:26):
regulation, consumer trust,safety standards, and
overestimated thetransferability of their
expertise.
Then came the Asian financialcrisis.
The result?
Massive losses.
Eventually, they sold thecompany to Renault Motor.
And today, the name Samsung isbarely attached to what's left.
(08:48):
Now flip it.
Hyundai, the car manufacturer,tried to do the opposite.
They moved into LCD monitors andTVs, thinking their industrial
scale could carry over.
But electronics is a differentanimal.
It's about design, userexperience, innovation cycles,
not just mass production.
(09:10):
And so, Hyundai lost hundreds ofmillions of dollars and pulled
out.
What's the lesson here?
Power isn't enough.
Money isn't enough.
Even talent isn't enough.
If the decision isn't rooted inclear values, aligned strengths,
and philosophicalself-awareness, you're not
(09:32):
innovating.
You're guessing.
And guessing is not a strategy.
So now, let's talk about us,this generation, right now.
(09:52):
Because everything we'vediscussed so far, war, politics,
business, it all points to onetruth.
We are the ones holding the pennow.
The next chapter of history isnot being written in someone
else's capital.
Not in Washington.
Not in London.
It's being written in Tehran, inBaghdad, in Beirut, in Cairo.
(10:17):
and in the minds and hands ofpeople who are tired of being
told what's possible.
If you're from Iran, you alreadyknow the weight of this.
We've had revolutions.
We've had wars.
We've been misled, broken,manipulated.
But we've also survived.
And now, we're at the edge ofsomething new.
(10:40):
This is not just a politicalmoment.
It's a philosophical one.
Do we repeat the mistakes of thepast?
Or do we calibrate our courage?
Do we chase chaos for the sakeof emotion?
Or do we act with purpose, withvision?
This is our industrialrevolution.
(11:01):
And I mean that in every sense.
We're not just capable ofbuilding tech companies.
We already are.
We're not just making films.
We're making film that telldeeper, more human stories.
Thank you.
(11:45):
but leads on our own terms.
Imagine an Iran that become thehub of ethical innovation, an
Iran whose students lead globalAI research, whose artists
redefine the language of film,whose businesses operate with
dignity and intelligence.
(12:05):
It's possible, but only if wewant it, only if we fight for
it, not only with weapons, butwith philosophy, strategy, and
calculated risk.
(12:30):
Let's end this journey byshifting our gaze to the East,
because for decades we weretaught to look West, to America,
to Europe, to the so-called freeworld, for progress, for power,
for permission.
But history had other plans.
While the world was stillfocused on the Cold War, on the
(12:53):
Gulf War, on whether communismor capitalism would win, China
quietly began rewriting therules.
Most of us thought China hadreached its end after 1989, the
Tiananmen Square protests, a cryfor democracy that ended in
silence, censorship.
(13:13):
a brutal massacre the worldcondemned it the chinese
government sealed the story andmany assumed it was the end of
china's credibility on theglobal stage but then came 1992
the u.s government along withpro-democracy voices tried to
pressure china further toisolate it to topple it One of
(13:36):
the responses was the ChineseStudent Protection Act, passed
by Congress to provide temporaryprotected status for Chinese
nationals in America after thecrackdown.
The message was clear.
The West would shelter theopposition and quietly hope for
China to collapse.
But China didn't collapse.
(13:57):
They calculated.
I was in China in 1993.
I saw it with my own eyes.
The first wave of tourism.
the first cracks in the wall,not from revolution, but from
strategy, not collapse, butcontrolled transformation.
And what followed was nothingshort of historic.
(14:17):
Today, China is no longer just afactory for the West.
It's a superpower in its ownright, not just militarily, but
intellectually, economically,technologically.
Let's talk numbers.
In 2023, China filed 1.68million patent applications,
nearly three times more than theUnited States, which filed
(14:40):
around 598,000.
China leads in AI patents, ingenerative AI, in green energy,
quantum computing,semiconductors, and more.
Yes, US patents are cited moreoften, but the volume, the
velocity, and the direction allpoint one way.
(15:01):
China is not coming.
China is already here.
And while we, in Iran and acrossthe Middle East, waited for the
West to save us, judgedourselves through their lens,
and begged for a seat at theirtable, China built their own
table.
And here's the deeper truth.
The East understands struggle.
(15:24):
They've lived throughoccupation, through humiliation,
through sanctions and betrayal.
They don't just speak our pain.
They've survived it.
And they didn't wait forpermission to rise.
They just did.
So maybe it's time we stoplooking only west.
(15:44):
Maybe it's time we study thephilosophy of the East, not just
their political strategy, buttheir patience, their long-game
thinking, their ability to turnhardship into infrastructure.
That's calculated risk at anational scale.
We don't need pity.
We need partners.
And if we're honest, we mightfind more solidarity in the East
(16:09):
than we ever will in the West.
So where does all this leave us?
We've talked about war, aboutleadership, about failure,
business, Betrayal,transformation.
(16:31):
We've talked about AbrahamLincoln, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs,
and yes, even China.
But what connects it all isthis, calculated risk.
Because in life, whether you'releading a nation or trying to
build a better version ofyourself, you will face
uncertainty.
And the real danger is not riskitself.
(16:54):
It's unexamined risk.
It's acting without clarity.
Reacting instead of thinking.
leaping instead of learning.
And when we miscalculate, thecost is trauma.
That's the pain many of us carrynow, in our homes, in our
memory, in our bodies, and inour silence.
Trauma isn't just what happenedto us, that's what we never got
(17:17):
the tools to understand.
And that's why the next episodewill dive deeper into this
subject, into the scars wecarry, the choices we regret,
and how philosophy can help ushold that pain without being
defined by it.
But before we go, let me speakto those of you in Iran and to
(17:39):
anyone in the Middle East whostill believes a better world is
possible.
This is your moment, not just toheal, not just to survive, but
to build.
We are not the generation ofexcuses.
We are the generation of choice.
We have talent.
We have culture.
We have stories that the worldneeds to hear, and we have the
(18:01):
chance to lead, not by mimickingthe West, but by learning from
the East, by choosing visionover reaction, philosophy over
propaganda, and courage overcomfort.
The future isn't guaranteed, butit is possible.
If you calculate your risk, ifyou lead with principle, if you
(18:21):
believe in something bigger thanfear, then history doesn't have
to repeat.
It can evolve.
Because the future, my friend,is not a lottery.
It's a philosophy.
And it's in your hands.
This is Philosophy of Life.
I'm Reza Sanjideh.
And this was Calculated Risk.
(18:45):
And before I go, these episodesare made for you because you
matter to me.
Please don't be shy.
Send me your thoughts, yourfeedback, your critiques.
I would truly love to hear them.
Welcome to another episode of Philosophy of Life.
I'm your host Reza Sanjide.
In this podcast, we don't justtalk about ideas, we explore how
philosophy helps us survive,lead, and grow.
(00:24):
Today's episode is calledCalculated Risk.
It's a continuation of my lastepisode, which was a bit unusual
podcast, did follow my typicalpattern.
We stepped into the long shadowof war, its impact, and the duty
we carry when history calls usto choose.
I felt it was necessary to staywith that theme just a little
(00:46):
longer, because open dialogue,especially in difficult times,
matters.
And this episode is about makingdecisions that shape not just
survival, but Let's begin.
So, here we are again, back onthe battlefield.
(01:17):
Not just of war, but of choices.
The kind of choices that shape alife, or change the fate of a
nation.
In the last episode, we exploredIran, not just its politics, but
its But it's people, it's pain,it's pride, and the unspoken
duty we carry when our homelandis under threat.
(01:38):
But today, we're shifting thefocus.
Because this isn't just aboutdefending a country.
It's about defending somethingdeeper.
The decision itself.
The choice to act or to staysilent.
To resist or to retreat.
To move forward or to freeze.
And how, without philosophy toguide you, You're not leading
(02:00):
your life.
You're just gambling with it.
Let me ask you something.
When war comes to your door, orwhen life does, what are you
using to make your choices?
Fear?
Pride?
A quick gut reaction?
Or do you pause and calculatethe risk?
Philosophy is not a luxury.
(02:22):
It's not an abstract game forold men in dusty libraries.
It's a tool, maybe the mostpowerful one, Thank you.
(03:00):
In 1862, the United States wasbleeding.
A nation divided North versusSouth.
But the deeper war wasn't justbetween armies.
It was between two systems, twophilosophies.
The South ran on slavery, aneconomy built on agriculture,
cotton and forced labor, afeudal structure serving
(03:22):
European industry.
The North was shifting towardfactories, steel, cities and
capital.
Lincoln wasn't just trying topreserve the Union.
He wanted to redefine it.
He waited for the right moment,for the right military victory.
And then he issued theEmancipation Proclamation, a
(03:42):
bold moral stand, but also astrategic one.
It wasn't just about endingslavery.
It was about dismantling theSouth's economy, cutting off its
labor engine, and reshapingAmerica's trajectory.
At the same time, Lincoln waslaying the foundation for an
industrial future, moving fromfeudalism toward capitalism.
(04:07):
It was a massive risk.
Britain and France werewatching.
They needed southern cotton.
They didn't support slavery, butthey relied on cheap
agriculture.
If they had recognized theConfederacy, the war could have
ended very differently.
But Lincoln and the Union stoodfirm, gave their blood to a hat,
(04:29):
they refused to take off.
And in the end, they didn't justwin a war, they changed the path
of the world.
In Iran, we've paid for everymiscalculation, not just in
(04:52):
theory, in blood, in exile, ingenerations growing up with the
consequence of rushed decisionsand short-sighted revolutions.
I remember the chants, the hope,people shouting for a better
tomorrow, but they were shoutingwith emotion, not calculation.
(05:12):
And when the smoke cleared, manyof us realized too late.
We hadn't planned for the dayafter.
We didn't ask who would takepower.
We didn't ask what systems wouldbe rebuilt.
That's the danger of fightingwith passion and not philosophy,
because you can win the battleand lose the future.
(05:35):
Philosophy wouldn't have stoppedthe revolution, but it might
have made it smarter, morestrategic, more humane.
This idea of calculated riskdoesn't stop at revolutions or
(05:58):
presidents.
It shows up in your everydaylife, in your business, in your
relationships, in your health,in your career.
Because life itself is a seriesof risks, some small, some
massive, but all of them askingthe same thing.
Are you thinking this through orjust reacting?
(06:19):
Let's take business.
Every time you start somethingnew, You're walking into
uncertainty.
There's no guarantee.
Statistically, most businessesfail within the first five
years.
But the difference betweenfailure and success isn't always
luck or money, as whether therisk was calculated or careless.
(06:40):
Take Steve Jobs.
When he returned to Apple in1997, it was a sinking ship.
Too many products.
No focus.
No soul.
But Jobs didn't panic.
He simplified.
He refocused.
And he bet everything on a bold,intuitive idea.
That design matters.
(07:01):
That experience matters.
That simplicity wins.
The iMac wasn't just a product.
It was a philosophical reset.
He didn't try to be everythingto everyone.
He chose clarity over chaos.
And that decision rebuilt Apple.
Now take Jeff Bezos.
He walked away from a secureWall Street career to sell books
(07:22):
online, at a time when theinternet was a joke to most
people.
But Bezos wasn't guessing.
He was asking long-termquestions.
What do people always want?
Lower prices, faster delivery,convenience.
And from that, he built Amazon.
Not by chasing quarterlyprofits, but by trusting a
(07:44):
philosophy of patience, scale,and relentless customer focus.
For years, they didn't even turna profit.
And yet, they built an empire.
But even giants stumble whenthey ignore the map.
Let's look at Samsung, apowerhouse in electronics,
(08:05):
phones, TVs, chips, appliances,almost everything they.
Touch turns to gold.
So in the 1990s, they asked, whynot build cars?
They launched Samsung Motorswith confidence they could
disrupt the auto industry.
But they were wrong.
They underestimated thecomplexities, government
(08:26):
regulation, consumer trust,safety standards, and
overestimated thetransferability of their
expertise.
Then came the Asian financialcrisis.
The result?
Massive losses.
Eventually, they sold thecompany to Renault Motor.
And today, the name Samsung isbarely attached to what's left.
(08:48):
Now flip it.
Hyundai, the car manufacturer,tried to do the opposite.
They moved into LCD monitors andTVs, thinking their industrial
scale could carry over.
But electronics is a differentanimal.
It's about design, userexperience, innovation cycles,
not just mass production.
(09:10):
And so, Hyundai lost hundreds ofmillions of dollars and pulled
out.
What's the lesson here?
Power isn't enough.
Money isn't enough.
Even talent isn't enough.
If the decision isn't rooted inclear values, aligned strengths,
and philosophicalself-awareness, you're not
(09:32):
innovating.
You're guessing.
And guessing is not a strategy.
So now, let's talk about us,this generation, right now.
(09:52):
Because everything we'vediscussed so far, war, politics,
business, it all points to onetruth.
We are the ones holding the pennow.
The next chapter of history isnot being written in someone
else's capital.
Not in Washington.
Not in London.
It's being written in Tehran, inBaghdad, in Beirut, in Cairo.
(10:17):
and in the minds and hands ofpeople who are tired of being
told what's possible.
If you're from Iran, you alreadyknow the weight of this.
We've had revolutions.
We've had wars.
We've been misled, broken,manipulated.
But we've also survived.
And now, we're at the edge ofsomething new.
(10:40):
This is not just a politicalmoment.
It's a philosophical one.
Do we repeat the mistakes of thepast?
Or do we calibrate our courage?
Do we chase chaos for the sakeof emotion?
Or do we act with purpose, withvision?
This is our industrialrevolution.
(11:01):
And I mean that in every sense.
We're not just capable ofbuilding tech companies.
We already are.
We're not just making films.
We're making film that telldeeper, more human stories.
Thank you.
(11:45):
but leads on our own terms.
Imagine an Iran that become thehub of ethical innovation, an
Iran whose students lead globalAI research, whose artists
redefine the language of film,whose businesses operate with
dignity and intelligence.
(12:05):
It's possible, but only if wewant it, only if we fight for
it, not only with weapons, butwith philosophy, strategy, and
calculated risk.
(12:30):
Let's end this journey byshifting our gaze to the East,
because for decades we weretaught to look West, to America,
to Europe, to the so-called freeworld, for progress, for power,
for permission.
But history had other plans.
While the world was stillfocused on the Cold War, on the
(12:53):
Gulf War, on whether communismor capitalism would win, China
quietly began rewriting therules.
Most of us thought China hadreached its end after 1989, the
Tiananmen Square protests, a cryfor democracy that ended in
silence, censorship.
(13:13):
a brutal massacre the worldcondemned it the chinese
government sealed the story andmany assumed it was the end of
china's credibility on theglobal stage but then came 1992
the u.s government along withpro-democracy voices tried to
pressure china further toisolate it to topple it One of
(13:36):
the responses was the ChineseStudent Protection Act, passed
by Congress to provide temporaryprotected status for Chinese
nationals in America after thecrackdown.
The message was clear.
The West would shelter theopposition and quietly hope for
China to collapse.
But China didn't collapse.
(13:57):
They calculated.
I was in China in 1993.
I saw it with my own eyes.
The first wave of tourism.
the first cracks in the wall,not from revolution, but from
strategy, not collapse, butcontrolled transformation.
And what followed was nothingshort of historic.
(14:17):
Today, China is no longer just afactory for the West.
It's a superpower in its ownright, not just militarily, but
intellectually, economically,technologically.
Let's talk numbers.
In 2023, China filed 1.68million patent applications,
nearly three times more than theUnited States, which filed
(14:40):
around 598,000.
China leads in AI patents, ingenerative AI, in green energy,
quantum computing,semiconductors, and more.
Yes, US patents are cited moreoften, but the volume, the
velocity, and the direction allpoint one way.
(15:01):
China is not coming.
China is already here.
And while we, in Iran and acrossthe Middle East, waited for the
West to save us, judgedourselves through their lens,
and begged for a seat at theirtable, China built their own
table.
And here's the deeper truth.
The East understands struggle.
(15:24):
They've lived throughoccupation, through humiliation,
through sanctions and betrayal.
They don't just speak our pain.
They've survived it.
And they didn't wait forpermission to rise.
They just did.
So maybe it's time we stoplooking only west.
(15:44):
Maybe it's time we study thephilosophy of the East, not just
their political strategy, buttheir patience, their long-game
thinking, their ability to turnhardship into infrastructure.
That's calculated risk at anational scale.
We don't need pity.
We need partners.
And if we're honest, we mightfind more solidarity in the East
(16:09):
than we ever will in the West.
So where does all this leave us?
We've talked about war, aboutleadership, about failure,
business, Betrayal,transformation.
(16:31):
We've talked about AbrahamLincoln, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs,
and yes, even China.
But what connects it all isthis, calculated risk.
Because in life, whether you'releading a nation or trying to
build a better version ofyourself, you will face
uncertainty.
And the real danger is not riskitself.
(16:54):
It's unexamined risk.
It's acting without clarity.
Reacting instead of thinking.
leaping instead of learning.
And when we miscalculate, thecost is trauma.
That's the pain many of us carrynow, in our homes, in our
memory, in our bodies, and inour silence.
Trauma isn't just what happenedto us, that's what we never got
(17:17):
the tools to understand.
And that's why the next episodewill dive deeper into this
subject, into the scars wecarry, the choices we regret,
and how philosophy can help ushold that pain without being
defined by it.
But before we go, let me speakto those of you in Iran and to
(17:39):
anyone in the Middle East whostill believes a better world is
possible.
This is your moment, not just toheal, not just to survive, but
to build.
We are not the generation ofexcuses.
We are the generation of choice.
We have talent.
We have culture.
We have stories that the worldneeds to hear, and we have the
(18:01):
chance to lead, not by mimickingthe West, but by learning from
the East, by choosing visionover reaction, philosophy over
propaganda, and courage overcomfort.
The future isn't guaranteed, butit is possible.
If you calculate your risk, ifyou lead with principle, if you
(18:21):
believe in something bigger thanfear, then history doesn't have
to repeat.
It can evolve.
Because the future, my friend,is not a lottery.
It's a philosophy.
And it's in your hands.
This is Philosophy of Life.
I'm Reza Sanjideh.
And this was Calculated Risk.
(18:45):
And before I go, these episodesare made for you because you
matter to me.
Please don't be shy.
Send me your thoughts, yourfeedback, your critiques.
I would truly love to hear them.
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Law & Order: Criminal Justice System - Season 1 & Season 2
Season Two Out Now! Law & Order: Criminal Justice System tells the real stories behind the landmark cases that have shaped how the most dangerous and influential criminals in America are prosecuted. In its second season, the series tackles the threat of terrorism in the United States. From the rise of extremist political groups in the 60s to domestic lone wolves in the modern day, we explore how organizations like the FBI and Joint Terrorism Take Force have evolved to fight back against a multitude of terrorist threats.