June 25, 2025 • 44 mins
California's ambitious EV mandate faces serious challenges with the 2026 requirement of 35% zero-emission vehicles while current market share sits at just 20%. Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, explains the growing tension between political ambition and market realities.
• California leads the US in electric vehicle adoption with one in five vehicles sold being pure EVs
• Upcoming mandate requires 35% of all vehicles manufactured for California to be zero-emission by 2026
• Manufacturers face $20,000 fines per non-compliant vehicle, likely leading to restricted allocation of gas-powered cars
• 64% of Californians oppose the zero-emission vehicle mandate to go 100% by 2035
• Insufficient charging infrastructure remains the top concern preventing consumers from transitioning to EVs
• California needs 1 million public chargers by 2030 but currently has only 178,000
• Price difference between electric and gas vehicles ranges from a few thousand to over $10,000
• California dealers have launched a "Calibrate" campaign asking regulators to pause enforcement
• China's BYD has become the world's largest EV manufacturer, raising trade and policy questions
If you're enjoying Power Struggle, make sure to subscribe, like and share this episode, because it helps us bring fact-based energy conversations to more people across Canada and beyond.
The energy conversation is polarizing. But the reality is multidimensional. Get the full story with host Stewart Muir.
Reach out to us with thoughts, questions, or ideas at info@powerstruggle.ca
Linkedin
Instagram
Facebook
Twitter
🎧 For audio versions of our podcast visit powerstruggle.ca and listen on the go in your favourite podcast app!
Video available on Power Struggle’s YouTube! https://www.youtube.com/@PowerStrugglePod
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Stewart Muir (00:01):
Welcome to Power Struggle.
I'm Stuart Muir.
Today we're heading south toCalifornia, where some of the
most ambitious energy andclimate policies in North
America are already in motion.
California gave the world carculture, from the lowriders of
East LA to the Teslas of SiliconValley.
This place has shaped howpeople move, how they dream, how
(00:22):
they rebel.
It's behind the wheel, but aspolicymakers push aggressive EV
mandates, there's growingtension between political
ambition and real-world marketrealities.
Today, on Power Struggle, I'mjoined by Brian Moss, the
president of the California NewCar Dealers Association.
(00:43):
He spent over two decadesrepresenting 1,000-plus
franchised new car dealersacross the state.
Brian, welcome to PowerStruggle.
Brian Maas (00:52):
Stuart, thanks for having me Really appreciate it.
Stewart Muir (00:54):
You know there's the people on the front lines,
the ones who actually sell thecars.
Talk to the buyers.
What they're seeing in theshowrooms where they meet their
customers might surprise you,brian.
Tell us about that.
Brian Maas (01:05):
Sure.
So California leads the UnitedStates in electric vehicle
market share.
One out of every five vehiclessold in California is a pure EV.
Then when you add hybridvehicles and plug-in hybrid
vehicles on top of that, it'swell over 30 plus percent.
(01:25):
We deliver what customers wantto buy and our EV market share
is three times what it isnationally.
The problem, as you alluded to,is there are mandates that
apply in California and 11 otherstates that require for the
2026 model year, 35% of allvehicles manufactured for sale
(01:52):
in our state must be zeroemission, even though the market
share right now is 20%.
So we've got a mandate thatvirtually none of the
manufacturers our dealersrepresent are going to be able
to meet, and it's going to kickin in a matter of weeks and
months as the 26 model yearvehicles arrive on dealers lots.
Stewart Muir (02:13):
Now, just so I'm clear, is this EVs only that
need to be 35% of all new carssold in 2026?
Or are there other kinds oflower, zero emission cars that
are in this?
Brian Maas (02:26):
So part of the mandate includes plug-in
electric hybrids.
But there's strict requirementson what portion of the
vehicle's energy has to beelectric.
So you have to get 50 miles allelectric in a plug-in for it to
(02:47):
count toward the EV mandate.
Unfortunately, most of theplug-in hybrids available today
only have a range of between 20and 40 miles, so they don't
count.
I drive a plug-in myself.
It only gets 40 miles allelectric.
It wouldn't count for purposesof the EV mandate.
Stewart Muir (03:07):
So on paper it looks like those plug-in hybrids
are accepted, but in practicethey're not.
Brian Maas (03:14):
At least is the way the mandate is presently
constituted.
Stewart Muir (03:17):
Okay.
Well, it sounds like there'ssome friction points that are
building here between thereality of today and the
aspirations that the Californiagovernment has set out.
How are consumers reacting tothis?
Brian Maas (03:32):
Because of the impact of the mandate, the fact
that this 35% rule kicks in.
This year.
We've been leading a publicaffairs campaign in California
to try and educate stakeholders,legislators, regulators, the
general public about the impactof the mandate and the potential
(03:54):
impact it's going to have onstate and local sales tax
revenue, the availability ofvehicles.
What have you?
In conjunction with that effort, we commissioned a statewide
public opinion poll and we askeddo you support a zero emission
vehicle mandate to go 100% zeroemission by 2035?
And 64% of Californians saidthey opposed it.
(04:17):
And the opposition wasconsistent throughout the state,
well over 50% in every regionof the state, and we're trying
to communicate with policymakersthat nobody's opposed to the
eventual goal of electrification.
California's obviously led thateffort, but a mandate that
nobody can comply with and onethat California voters are
(04:41):
opposed to deserves to berecalibrated.
That's the calibrate is thename of our campaign, and we'd
encourage folks to pauseenforcement of the rule until we
can figure out how to redraftit.
Stewart Muir (04:54):
Well, I'd like to dig in a little bit later into
how this is going over, whetheryou think that the goal of
recalibration in your campaignis going to be successful, but
just want to dig into a fewother things.
So when I think of Californiaand Californians, I think of
eco-friendly.
You know people who who lovethe environment.
(05:14):
Maybe they get around on thehighways of LA on all that
asphalt, but they also tend tobe much more green in their
views than the rest of thecountry.
Fair.
Brian Maas (05:24):
Yeah, I think that's fairly true.
We adopted by ballot initiativea coastal commission to
regulate development on ourcoast.
You know, over 50 years ago,and many of the environmental
policies that have spread acrossthe country have started in
California we were the first tohave an air resources agency in
(05:48):
the 60s.
It actually preceded theFederal Clean Air Act, so we've
been on the forefront ofenvironmental policy for a long
time.
Stewart Muir (05:55):
They keep meticulous records.
I've viewed what the CARB, theCalifornia Air Resources Board,
does because it's interesting tosee.
They consume a lot of Canadianoil there in the refineries to
make the gasoline that goes intothe fleet.
And boy do they keep records.
They know the exact numbers ofhow polluting this blend, if
it's from Nigeria or Iraq orCanada or whatever.
(06:18):
They've got the figures.
It's amazing.
No other jurisdiction I'm awareof keeps that kind of
information, at least that thepublic can easily see.
That's California.
So you have a Democrat governor, right?
Brian Maas (06:30):
We do.
Stewart Muir (06:30):
Now he's looking a little more not so Democrat.
He's going on Joe Rogan'spodcast.
What is he trying to do there?
Not?
Brian Maas (06:37):
look as progressive, or what's the deal?
Well, governor Newsom is termedout in 2026.
So he's in the last two yearsof his tenure as governor.
Some have speculated if he'spivoting to perhaps run for
president or some other officeor platform.
I have no idea what hisintentions are, but you know,
(07:02):
clearly, appearing on thesepodcasts, doing a podcast of his
own, making what some wouldconsider to be more moderate
policy pronouncements, has ledto that speculation.
Stewart Muir (07:15):
I wonder if there's some energy reality
that's part of that, in additionto the change in the federal
government with President Trump.
Do you sense that there is thathappening, that the aspirations
of a decade ago on theseambitious targets?
Maybe some people want to walkback a little.
Brian Maas (07:34):
Well, I think California has always dreamt big
and I don't think that's goingto change.
I think the challenge has beenthe mandates that have been put
in place don't match the rate ofprogress in some of the things
that the environmental communityhas asked for.
(07:55):
The 20-3500% ZEV mandate is oneof those.
But we've got clean energyrequirements.
We were going to shut down ourlast nuclear power plant in
California and then folksrealized oh well, that's a
quarter of the power provided inthe state.
What's going to replace it?
(08:15):
So we've extended the usefullife of that power plant.
Similar kinds of inquiries arehappening around oil refineries.
They seem to be closing morefrequently and that puts
(08:40):
pressure on our fuelinfrastructure because,
regardless of how ambitious youwant to be about zero emission
vehicles, internal combustionvehicles are here for a few more
decades and we need gasoline,refined gasoline, to go into the
tanks of those cars.
And if we don't have therefinery capacity, the price of
gas is going to go through theroof.
Stewart Muir (08:52):
Now consumers feel good about EVs right.
Brian Maas (08:56):
Yeah, generally speaking they do.
I think everybody understandsthat it's great technology and I
think a lot of Californianswould like to have one.
I mentioned the public opinionpoll we did.
The number one reason consumerscited for not making the
transition to a zero emissionvehicle is the lack of public
charging infrastructure.
(09:17):
We're woefully behind whatwould be required to move to
100% environment.
Stewart Muir (09:23):
If you're enjoying Power Struggle, make sure to
subscribe, like and share thisepisode, because it helps us
bring fact-based energyconversations to more people
across Canada and beyond.
Brian Maas (09:34):
Woefully behind what would be required to move to
100% environment.
And if you live in amultifamily dwelling, an
apartment building or somethinglike that, you can't charge at
home, so you would have to relyon a public charger.
Where do you go to get thatcharged?
And just to give you some datapoints, the state's Energy
(09:59):
Commission has said we need amillion public chargers by 2030
and two million public chargersby 2035.
We only have 178,000 now andwe're adding less than 50,000
public chargers a year.
We're just not going to getthere fast enough to meet the
mandate that's on the books now.
Stewart Muir (10:18):
A little story.
I was Coming into Los Angeleswith my family.
We flew into LAX, it was kindof late at night, busy time of
year, and there were a lot ofpeople went to the budget to get
the car.
I had a car booked and therewas this huge lineup where the
back of like 200 people liningup.
I'm thinking, well, we havelike three hour drive ahead of
us, we'll get there.
(10:39):
The line's moving.
But then an employee from budgetwas coming down the lineup
talking to people, I don't knowwhy.
And eventually he got to me andthis kindly woman said we have
a nice offer for you.
If you would like, we have thatelectric Ford Mustang over
there.
You can take it right now andyou can bypass this huge lineup.
(10:59):
It's only 50% charged but we'regoing to give you a discount.
And it was Christmas, I thinksome sort of you know, seasonal
incentive.
And I thought I'm driving withmy family on the highways that I
don't know that well throughthe night I'm not sure what the
charging situation will be.
I have to take a pass.
So we spent an extra half hourwaiting but, you know, not one
(11:20):
person out of hundreds wouldtake that offer.
I was a little surprised.
I thought someone would go forit.
Maybe word has gotten around.
It feels like the public that Iwas exposed to maybe there were
travelers, maybe there werelocals coming home, I don't know
were kind of not feelingconfident about the California
charging infrastructure.
Brian Maas (11:40):
Yeah, I think you know the anecdotal stories from
drivers that are dealers here.
Is somebody really wants to?
You know the anecdotal storiesfrom drivers that are dealers
here.
Is somebody really wants to?
You know they'reenvironmentally conscious.
They want to do their part tocombat climate change.
I'd like to drive an EV.
And then they realize when theyget it home oh, where do I
(12:02):
charge this car?
How fast can I charge it?
How much does it cost All thosekinds of things?
And so, as much as some peoplewant to poo-poo it, range
anxiety and the availability ofpublic charging infrastructure
is a top of mind issue and againwe deserve a lot of credit.
(12:23):
We're 20% EV market share.
That's fantastic, but to get tothe next level we're going to
have to make significantinvestments in the charging
infrastructure to have touristslike you, stuart, feel
comfortable when you're cominginto town and renting a car, and
people who live in apartmentbuildings or other places
(12:44):
without a garage charger havethem feel comfortable.
Stewart Muir (12:48):
Now I understand that California and some other
states are filing a lawsuitagainst the Trump administration
on the lack of funding forbuilding the EV infrastructure.
Are they legit?
Brian Maas (13:00):
The debate a little bit, little bit.
My understanding, based onmedia accounts of the lawsuit,
is during the lastadministration, when biden was
president, congress passed evcharging infrastructure funding
mechanisms and california andthese other states are suing
(13:20):
because trump is trying to stopthe distribution of those
already authorized funds andthey're arguing that Congress
passed it, president signed it,the money needs to go out the
door and the Trumpadministration is saying no, we
don't want to spend that moneyand that's the nature of the
(13:41):
lawsuit.
So they're fighting overalready allocated funds At this
point.
California and the other stateswant the money and the Trump
administration is saying no, wedon't want to send you the money
, we have different priorities.
Stewart Muir (13:54):
Right Now I'm talking to you from British
Columbia, where the governmenthas pursued what I understand to
be the most ambitious EV policy, you know, getting to 100%
really quickly.
So it's one of those probablyrare cases where BC or anywhere
else is more green thanCalifornia is because California
(14:15):
is so green.
But you know, this issue, Ithink, is bedeviling people who
want to make a good choice forthe environment in their next
vehicle but at the same timethey're counting their pennies.
Is it more expensive to buy afamily level vehicle that's EV
compared to a gasoline one inCalifornia?
Brian Maas (14:37):
Yes, it is.
Depending on the vehicle andthe manufacturer, it can be a
few thousand to more than$10,000 price differential
between a non-electric andelectric version of the same
vehicle.
And when you're, you know,pinching pennies.
That's a difficult choice tomake, no matter what your
(15:01):
political stance might be oryour motivation to switch to an
EV.
What your political stancemight be, or your motivation to
switch to an EV, you've got tofigure out how to purchase that
vehicle, and 80% of vehiclespurchased in California are
financed.
So then you've got to figureout well, what's the interest
rate going to be on my loan andall those kinds of factors you
have to consider.
So it's just another impedimentin the transition to
(15:26):
electrification.
Stewart Muir (15:27):
Now suppose that California doesn't get to 35% of
new cars sold or electricvehicles by 2026.
What will happen?
Is there some enforcementbehind this?
Brian Maas (15:40):
That's a great question.
So really one of two, twothings is going to happen.
So the regulation stipulatesthat a manufacturer that doesn't
meet the 35% threshold has topay a fine of over $20,000 per
vehicle.
What so?
(16:00):
The manufacturers have told ourdealers they're not going to
pay the fines.
So then you say, okay, well,what's the other option?
Well, the other option isthey're going to restrict
allocation of non-EVs to ourdealers in order to hit the 35%
threshold.
Easy way to think about it.
You've got a hypotheticaldealer that sells 100 cars in
(16:24):
any period of time.
Roughly 20% of those are EVs.
That's the statewide average.
Well, 20% is not 35%.
So in order to get that number20 to count as 35%, you have to
reduce the number 100, the totalamount of vehicles sent to that
(16:45):
dealer, the total amount ofvehicles sent to that dealer to
a much lower number, so that 20now is 35% of the total sold.
So we think there are going tobe profound impacts across the
state on the number of availablevehicles that consumers
otherwise would have access toand be willing to buy.
That means they may go toArizona and Nevada to buy
vehicles.
(17:05):
It's going to screw upallocation of vehicles
nationally.
You won't be able to find an EVin Nevada and you won't be able
to find an internal combustionengine vehicle in California,
all those kinds of things andthen it'll be a lower number of
vehicles sold, totally, so stateand local sales tax revenue
will be impacted.
And then you start thinkingwell, what about fleet operators
(17:27):
, police fire they need vehiclestoo.
Are they going to be able toget the vehicles that they need?
So we're trying to communicatethese impacts, and it's the
mandate that's the problem, notthe goal of electrification, and
that's the message we're tryingto communicate.
Stewart Muir (17:49):
Right, so this applies to 2026 year model cars.
When do those cars startarriving in the lots?
Brian Maas (17:56):
Some 26 models, believe it or not, are already
arriving at dealerships in BCand in California.
At dealerships in BC and inCalifornia, and you'll probably
see the most profound impact,usually by late summer.
(18:18):
Early fall is when mostmanufacturers start moving
through their 25-year modelvehicles and moving into 2026.
Stewart Muir (18:21):
So you must hope you're wrong about this
prediction about the lack ofvehicles for sale.
Brian Maas (18:26):
Well, what we're hoping is that we take the
manufacturers at their word thatthey're going to throttle
inventory to our dealers, andthat's why we're asking the
regulators to pause enforcementof the mandate.
Don't throw the baby out withthe bathwater.
You can still move toward 100percent electrification, but
you're going to have to adjustthe rule at some future point to
(18:50):
do this.
Maryland's governor, forexample, just issued a pause in
enforcement for two years inMaryland.
Maryland follows California'srules, so we're using that as an
example to say this can be done.
Let's delay enforcement untilwe get a better idea of how we
can recalibrate the mandategoing forward.
Stewart Muir (19:11):
Okay.
So on electric vehicles,California's got this aggressive
plan.
We'll soon find out whetherit's going to work or not work
in the short term, but there'sother things going on.
You mentioned refineries, andCalifornia has been phasing out
the oil refineries that createthe gasoline that is consumed,
like in the movies, all over thegreat state of California.
(19:33):
But in phasing out thoserefineries, has fuel demand
disappeared?
Brian Maas (19:37):
No, Fuel demand has slowed a bit.
Obviously, with more EVs sold,it's not perhaps growing at the
pace it used to grow, but fueldemand continues to be
significant and you know it's asupply and demand marketplace.
So our price of gasoline, thepremium that California
(20:00):
consumers pay for gas, is acouple bucks a gallon more than
the rest of the country andthat's significant impact on
California consumers.
Stewart Muir (20:14):
That's pretty interesting.
Wasn't there a refineryrecently that was going to close
down, a company that owned?
It said we're going to have toclose, but then the authority
said do you mind not closing?
Brian Maas (20:30):
Yeah, I mean I think there's considerable pressure
on these companies to try andfigure out how to stay open, but
we have other environmentalrules that impact refineries
directly.
I'm not an expert in that area.
We have what's called a lowcarbon fuel standard and the
idea is people who are producingcarbon-based fuels have to pay
a premium to do that, and thosecosts are passed on to consumers
(20:55):
at the gas pump.
So if refineries can'tprofitably stay open, it's going
to impact the availability andprice of gasoline for all of the
Californians who need it.
And again, just taking newvehicles, 80% of new vehicles
sold are not EVs.
(21:15):
They're internal combustion orhybrids, so they still need
gasoline.
Stewart Muir (21:21):
So if someone says well, I can't buy the gasoline
powered car of my choice here inCalifornia, so I'm going to
look around.
I'm going to go to Arizona oh,there's none there.
I'm going to keep going.
I'm going to go to Texas orwherever they need to go.
They'll find that car and bringit home.
When they get home will I haveto pay that $20,000 penalty?
Brian Maas (21:43):
We don't know how that's going to impact.
So the way the rule is draftedis if you don't meet the 35%,
the manufacturer has to pay thepenalty.
We don't know how theauthorities are going to enforce
a rule on that hypotheticalcustomer that finds the car in
(22:04):
Texas and tries to bring it backand register in California.
Because, unlike prior emissionrequirements, if it had a
catalytic converter you couldsee that the vehicle does or
doesn't have it.
You could open the hood, youcould verify that.
That's true.
But you can't tell by lookingat a car whether it's a
California-compliant ICE vehicleor a non-California-compliant
(22:29):
ICE vehicle.
They're all the same.
So we're not sure how the ruleis going to be enforced.
Under the prior regime therewas what we call a 7,500-mile
rule, where you couldn'tregister a vehicle that's
non-compliant in Californiauntil it has 7,500 miles on the
odometer.
But again, how do you knowwhether a vehicle you bought in
(22:52):
Texas is a non-compliant vehicle?
We don't know how that's goingto shake out.
It's just another uncertaintypiled on top of all these other
uncertainties.
And again, why we're asking fora pause in enforcement until we
can figure all this out.
Stewart Muir (23:08):
Well, look, it's uncanny how similar a lot of the
California rules on EVs andwhat you've been describing are
to British Columbia.
Like the same years, verysimilar target numbers, even
$20,000.
That's a number.
Initially there was a penaltyof $5,000 per car over this
quota in British Columbia, butthen they changed it a year ago.
(23:29):
I heard when is this comingfrom?
Who's thinking up the exactsame thing?
And then California and BC areadopting virtually the same
policy.
Bc's a little more aggressive.
Is that coming from thegovernments themselves or some
other source?
Brian Maas (23:43):
It's a good question .
I think there are folks in theenvironmental community want to
accelerate the transition toelectrification.
They're prevailing upon theleaders of governments to take
that mantle and demonstrate totheir citizenry and other
(24:05):
jurisdictions that this can bedone.
So that's how you get a 100%zero emission vehicle mandate by
2035 in California.
That's how BC gets its mandate.
People want to be leaders anddemonstrate that they're doing
their part to move thistransition forward.
Unfortunately, when the mandateis too far out front of the
(24:28):
market, you have the presentsituation we've been talking
about the last few minutes,stuart is you've got a rule
that's far ahead of where thereality is and we're going to
have some real difficulty thissummer unless there's a pause.
Stewart Muir (24:42):
I've always wanted to ask this question to someone
in your position, Brian.
Are gasoline cars getting moreefficient in terms of emissions?
Brian Maas (24:53):
Absolutely.
The vehicles on the road todaydon't emit criteria-pollutant
smog-producing gases virtuallyat all.
What the fight is over isgreenhouse gases, which is
(25:14):
largely carbon dioxide, and ifyou have an internal combustion
engine and you burn fuel, you'regoing to produce carbon dioxide
, but the kind of pollutantsthat created the smoggy
environments in Los Angeles inthe 70s.
Virtually no vehicle isproducing those things anymore
in the light duty market.
(25:34):
So these are extremely cleanvehicles.
They're highly fuel efficient.
You can buy hybrid sedans thatare averaging over 50 miles a
gallon and you can buy them for$30,000.
So you can get great fueleconomy.
You can get very clean vehicleswith internal combustion engine
(25:56):
technologies, but what youcan't do, at least as of today,
is have an ICE vehicle thatdoesn't burn CO2.
And that, ultimately, is thereason why environmentalists and
these regulators want totransition to electric vehicles,
because, of course, they don'tproduce any carbon dioxide.
Stewart Muir (26:17):
Now is the amount of CO2 released in these latest
cars less than it used to be, orthe same?
Brian Maas (26:22):
Sure, especially on a per mile basis, used to be.
Or the same Sure, Especially ona per mile basis.
You know the more fuelefficient the vehicle is, the
less fuel that's going to burn.
So if you can add hybridtechnology to these vehicles and
or you can make them go furtheron a gallon of gasoline you're
burning less gas per mile driven.
(26:43):
That helps the environment.
Stewart Muir (26:46):
Right Now I'm reasonably sure that the car
choice I make in BritishColumbia, or if I was in Quebec
or Massachusetts, that choicewouldn't affect the kind of car
you have to drive in California.
But is it true that the carsyou have in California determine
the cars that everyone else hasto drive?
Brian Maas (27:03):
Well, to some extent .
California is the fourthlargest economy in the world.
One out of every eight new carssold in the United States is
sold in California, and we havethe Air Resources Board that
dictates environmental policynot just for California but the
11 other states that followCalifornia.
Stewart Muir (27:24):
And that's been, from a pollution point of view,
pretty positive impact.
Brian Maas (27:28):
Absolutely.
You know as much as I cancriticize the current EV mandate
as drafted, it's indisputablethat the Air Resources Board has
done a very effective job inpushing the manufacturers to
build more fuel efficient andless polluting vehicles, and
(27:52):
society and the industry andeverybody deserves a ton of
credit for that change.
The air is a lot cleaner nowthan it was 50 years ago, in
large part because of thepolicies the Air Resources Board
has adopted.
Stewart Muir (28:09):
And that's been a profitable business for the
manufacturers of those cars, Itake it.
Brian Maas (28:13):
It has.
They've had to make lots ofsignificant adjustments to meet
those mandates, the priormandates, but they've done so
and have remained profitable,with, of course, the exception
of the Great Recession in2008-09.
Stewart Muir (28:30):
Now, what are the biggest sellers from American
manufacturers of EVs inCalifornia, or what brands?
Brian Maas (28:36):
The top EV sellers in California are Tesla.
The Model 3 and the Model Y arethe top two EV sellers.
Model 3 and the Model Y are thetop two EV sellers, but close
behind them are some of theHyundai vehicles, the Ford
Mustang, and of the top 25 EVs,four of them are Tesla and the
(29:01):
rest are distributed across allthe other major manufacturers.
So the EV marketplace looksconsiderably different than it
did five or 10 years ago.
Tesla dominated the market.
They were the only real game intown, with a possible exception
of the Nissan Leaf.
(29:22):
Well, now virtually everymanufacturer's got an EV or
multiple EVs, got an EV ormultiple EVs, and non-Tesla
manufacturers have now exceededTesla's market share in EVs for
the first time in California.
Stewart Muir (29:32):
Now I told you about my experience at LAX and
you told me about the lack ofchargers.
Are these EVs flying off thelot?
Brian Maas (29:41):
No, unfortunately, our sales have stagnated a bit
over the last eight quarters.
We produce on our website areport every quarter that tracks
vehicle registrations in ourstate and we can see you know
what the trends are.
(30:02):
What the trends are, andlargely because Tesla sales have
been dropping substantiallyeven though other EV sales have
been increasing, it hasn't beenenough to increase the EV market
share very much.
So we've kind of stagnated atabout the 20, 21% EV market
share threshold over the lastcouple of years and we're not
(30:26):
making the kind of progress weneed to meet the 35% threshold
we talked about earlier.
Stewart Muir (30:32):
So we talked about 2026 models.
What do you think will happenin 2027?
Brian Maas (30:37):
It's a great question.
Obviously, the manufacturershave long-term product cycles.
It takes something like fiveyears from the concept of a
vehicle to be mass-produced.
So they were thinking about2027 vehicles back in 2022.
(30:59):
They're coming.
There'll be more EVs availablein 2027 for consumers to choose
from.
What happens with the policyenvironment whether this ZEV
mandate stays in place, theimpact of tariffs or other
public policy changes is goingto have a dramatic impact on the
(31:20):
market, but the pipeline isalready in process for the 27
vehicles.
Stewart Muir (31:26):
But the pipeline is already in process for the 27
vehicles.
Now, against the backdrop ofall this happening in California
(31:50):
and hey, similar in BC could beavailable in every driveway in
the country if they were allowedto be, and consumers would
probably be very happy to havethose low-priced cars.
Brian Maas (31:58):
Yeah, it's a public policy challenge and it's the
intersection of whether youallow cheaper, more inexpensive
EVs that are produced in Chinaor elsewhere into the market
versus the public policy,foreign policy concerns of are
(32:23):
they going to undermine theability of domestic or North
American manufacturers frombeing able to transition to EVs?
If BYD is the biggest EVmanufacturer in the world now
it's past Tesla, a large Chinesecompany.
They've had great success inBrazil and Mexico producing EVs.
(32:47):
They're substantially cheaperthan many of the EVs available
now.
If you opened up the market toBYD, they'd probably sell a lot
of EVs, no doubt, but at theexpense of the financial health
of North American manufacturersand then their foreign policy
concerns.
Do we, as Americans, wantChinese companies coming to the
(33:10):
United States and dominatingwhat had traditionally been an
important domestic or NorthAmerican industry?
And that's the policy debatethat's going on right now.
Interestingly, both the Bidenadministration and the Trump
administration agreed not to letChinese vehicles in to the
(33:32):
United States, so so far they'renot here, but I think that
debate is going to continue torage in the coming years.
Stewart Muir (33:39):
Now I believe the Canadian government, as soon as
President Biden did what youjust said, followed suit.
This whole issue of EVs yes orno, or the pace it can be one of
those issues that seems to beassumed to be a proxy for how
you feel about the environmentor other issues, social or
economic issues, fairly orunfairly.
(34:01):
How do you think Californiansare feeling about this issue?
Do they feel divided?
Do they feel that they're goingdown the right road or not?
Going down the right road Is?
Is this, is this simple issueof what kind of car you buy
having, you know, a deeperinfluence on how people think
and feel?
Brian Maas (34:21):
Yeah, I mean uh, as you said at the top, stuart, I
mean California invented carculture and in certain markets
of the state you know,especially Los Angeles, what you
drive is a representation ofwho you are and it's very
important for those consumers tohave the vehicle that they want
(34:44):
to represent the kind of personthat they are.
You saw that manifested by thesignificant market share that
Tesla had.
Well, now that Mr Musk hasbecome politically controversial
and has been participating inthe Trump administration, you
have a lot of Californians and,frankly, tesla owners across the
(35:06):
country who are conflicted bythat.
On the one hand, they lovedriving an EV, they want to
support electrification and whathave you, but they don't
necessarily want to beassociated with Mr Musk or the
Tesla brand any longer.
So I think you're starting tosee that conflict kind of play
itself out in the minds ofCalifornians and those that
(35:32):
would like to make a statementabout I'm supporting
electrification of the vehiclefleet by the vehicle I own.
If the vehicle they own is aTesla, they're conflicted right
now.
Here in British Columbia, weoften look to California as a
model for a lot of things.
If the vehicle they own is aTesla they're conflicted right
now.
Stewart Muir (35:46):
Here in British Columbia, we often look to
California as a model for a lotof things Same climate goals,
same clean energy talk, and bothof us on the left coast of our
countries, as we say in BritishColumbia.
Brian Maas (35:58):
That is another thing in common, Brian from your
perspective, what shouldBritish Columbians be watching
most carefully as we shape ourenergy path here, as we're
following a little bit behindyou?
Yeah, I think, for all of us whoare interested in addressing
climate change, we have to bewilling to accept progress and
(36:19):
that progress may not happen asrapidly as some might wish, as
rapidly as some might wish, andwe have to be willing to take
credit for moving the ballforward and understand that
things may not happen quite asquickly as some would like,
especially when you'retransitioning, in the case of
(36:41):
electric vehicles, fromtechnology that consumers have
been using for over 100 yearsinternal combustion engine
vehicles.
You can't just snap yourfingers and say we're going to
go from 100 years of ICEvehicles.
We have 280 million ICEvehicles on the road in the
United States.
We're going to get rid of allthose and we're going to go to
(37:02):
EVs in a matter of a decade.
It's just not going to bepossible.
So how do we design policies toaccelerate that progress while
recognizing that it is atransition and it's going to
take time?
Stewart Muir (37:17):
Yeah, and you have all the green electricity you
need to do that right.
Brian Maas (37:21):
Not quite.
We're obviously makingsignificant progress in that
regard but depending on you knowthe weather or the status of
fires or what have you, we mayhave to import natural gas.
You know solar doesn't work at3 am.
(37:43):
You know solar doesn't work at3 am, so we need battery storage
to get through those things.
So we're making significantprogress, but we've got a ways
to go.
Stewart Muir (37:52):
Well, it's just as well you didn't shut down that
last nuclear plant in the stateyou mentioned.
Look, is there one policy moveor structural decision that
California has made that youthink in BC we would be well
advised to replicate?
Brian Maas (38:07):
That's a good question.
I think encouraging a diversegroup of renewable energy
options is a smart policy and,by and large, california has
done a good job of encouragingsolar, wind, biofuels, nuclear,
(38:32):
whatever it's going to be.
A diverse mix is going to makethe most sense long term.
A one size fits all energysolution, I think, could lead to
bottlenecks or problems downthe road.
So the other thing I would sayis it's one thing to encourage
(38:53):
these technologies, it's anotherthing to mandate these
technologies and, as we talkedabout at length about electric
vehicles, if you're requiring acertain number, be hit by a
certain date and the marketisn't ready or prepared to get
you there, you're going to havea policy roadblock that's going
(39:16):
to create difficulty for BCresidents or, in our case,
californians.
Stewart Muir (39:21):
Quick little game.
I'm going to make a statementand you say red flag or green
light and give me a sentence onwhy.
Number one tiered EV mandatestarting 2027.
Brian Maas (39:34):
Red flag, and the reason is we're not prepared to
meet the mandates thatCalifornia has developed so far.
Stewart Muir (39:43):
New hydro megaproject to power chargers.
Brian Maas (39:48):
I guess I'd say green flag.
The challenge is where do youbuild this hydro project?
Which river or lake are yougoing to dam to produce that
power?
Hydropower should be part ofthe solution.
Stewart Muir (40:04):
Moratorium on new refining capacity.
Brian Maas (40:07):
Absolute red flag.
You can't have an effectivetransition from ICE to EV by
cutting off the ability to fuelICE vehicles.
You've got to have enoughrefinery capacity to get us
through the transition.
Stewart Muir (40:23):
Subsidy swap Income-tested purchase grants.
Brian Maas (40:27):
Generally speaking, I'd give that a red flag.
If you want to encourage thepurchase of vehicles, say you
need to price the vehicles at aneffective price so that folks
of all economic means areinterested in buying it.
Governments don't have enoughcredit money to dole out credits
(40:50):
to everybody for everything, soit's incentivizing
manufacturers to make thevehicles at the retail price
that's effective, not adding ongovernment credits Long term.
That's not the right solution.
Stewart Muir (41:03):
Okay, last one Tesla Cybertruck in every
driveway.
Brian Maas (41:07):
Red flag.
I represent franchise new cardealers.
Tesla doesn't use franchisees,so if they use franchise dealers
, love for them to compete andhave a Cybertruck in everybody's
driveway, but since they don'tuse franchise dealers, I'm not a
fan.
Stewart Muir (41:22):
This has been absolutely fascinating.
I'm curious, though youprobably represent, through the
dealers that are members of yourassociation, a lot of different
brands and models.
What's the buzziest car modelcoming out in 2026 in California
?
What are people really excitedabout?
Brian Maas (41:41):
But boy, that's a.
That's a tough question to ask.
I think people are looking atnew EV models and saying, wow,
some of these vehicles.
You know you had the VW ID Buzz.
You know a reincarnation of theold VW bus.
(42:03):
A lot of people were interestedin that.
Kia and Hyundai are producinglarger SUVs that are EVs.
A lot of people are looking atthose vehicles.
Cadillac's coming out with asignificant number of EVs, so I
think there's a lot of interestin these things.
(42:23):
The challenge is, with thepolicy uncertainty and the
discussion around, you know ourprice is going to go up, or what
have you.
I think the excitement over theintroduction of these new
vehicles has been temperedsomewhat while we wait to see
how the dust settles with someof the policy changes that are
(42:45):
happening.
Stewart Muir (42:45):
How about Rolls-Royce?
Do they have an EV yet?
Brian Maas (42:49):
I'm not aware that they do.
Stewart Muir (42:51):
I heard they were talking about one, but I didn't
see it was out there.
What about Bentley or Maybachor some of those ultra
prestigious Hollywood star kindof cars?
Brian Maas (43:00):
Yeah, I think I saw that Bentley was going to be
producing an EV, but that'sprobably out of year in my price
range.
Stewart Muir (43:09):
Yeah, yeah, what do you drive?
Brian Maas (43:10):
I drive a Lexus plug-in electric hybrid.
Stewart Muir (43:15):
Lexus plug-in.
Well, it must be a good choice,because you have all the
information on what's the bestcar.
So I'll remember that one whenI go car shopping one of these
years.
Brian Maas (43:26):
Fantastic.
Stewart Muir (43:26):
Look, Brian, it's been amazing.
I'm kind of a car geek, so thiscould go long, but we better
not subject our listeners atPower Struggle to that and we'll
leave them with the best ofthis conversation.
So, to our listeners andwatchers, if this conversation
gave you something to thinkabout, consider subscribing,
which you can do through all theusual channels, including
(43:48):
YouTube, and if you're listeningon Apple or Spotify or any
other podcasting app, why notleave a review If you like this?
Wherever I go, I go to a lot ofconferences People are telling
me we're doing good work here.
They appreciate it.
Power Struggle is addressingwhat we call the energy trilemma
.
You know these aren't easythings and what Brian has
described this afternoon is notsimple stuff.
(44:10):
You know, people trying to dothe right thing, but also
reality intrudes in ways thataren't necessarily expected.
So I'd love to hear yourcomments about what Brian's been
talking about today.
And to you, Brian, thank youfor being here.
Really appreciate giving thatperspective today.
So thanks a lot.
Brian Maas (44:27):
Thanks for having me , stuart, really enjoyed the
conversation.
Welcome to Power Struggle.
I'm Stuart Muir.
Today we're heading south toCalifornia, where some of the
most ambitious energy andclimate policies in North
America are already in motion.
California gave the world carculture, from the lowriders of
East LA to the Teslas of SiliconValley.
This place has shaped howpeople move, how they dream, how
(00:22):
they rebel.
It's behind the wheel, but aspolicymakers push aggressive EV
mandates, there's growingtension between political
ambition and real-world marketrealities.
Today, on Power Struggle, I'mjoined by Brian Moss, the
president of the California NewCar Dealers Association.
(00:43):
He spent over two decadesrepresenting 1,000-plus
franchised new car dealersacross the state.
Brian, welcome to PowerStruggle.
Brian Maas (00:52):
Stuart, thanks for having me Really appreciate it.
Stewart Muir (00:54):
You know there's the people on the front lines,
the ones who actually sell thecars.
Talk to the buyers.
What they're seeing in theshowrooms where they meet their
customers might surprise you,brian.
Tell us about that.
Brian Maas (01:05):
Sure.
So California leads the UnitedStates in electric vehicle
market share.
One out of every five vehiclessold in California is a pure EV.
Then when you add hybridvehicles and plug-in hybrid
vehicles on top of that, it'swell over 30 plus percent.
(01:25):
We deliver what customers wantto buy and our EV market share
is three times what it isnationally.
The problem, as you alluded to,is there are mandates that
apply in California and 11 otherstates that require for the
2026 model year, 35% of allvehicles manufactured for sale
(01:52):
in our state must be zeroemission, even though the market
share right now is 20%.
So we've got a mandate thatvirtually none of the
manufacturers our dealersrepresent are going to be able
to meet, and it's going to kickin in a matter of weeks and
months as the 26 model yearvehicles arrive on dealers lots.
Stewart Muir (02:13):
Now, just so I'm clear, is this EVs only that
need to be 35% of all new carssold in 2026?
Or are there other kinds oflower, zero emission cars that
are in this?
Brian Maas (02:26):
So part of the mandate includes plug-in
electric hybrids.
But there's strict requirementson what portion of the
vehicle's energy has to beelectric.
So you have to get 50 miles allelectric in a plug-in for it to
(02:47):
count toward the EV mandate.
Unfortunately, most of theplug-in hybrids available today
only have a range of between 20and 40 miles, so they don't
count.
I drive a plug-in myself.
It only gets 40 miles allelectric.
It wouldn't count for purposesof the EV mandate.
Stewart Muir (03:07):
So on paper it looks like those plug-in hybrids
are accepted, but in practicethey're not.
Brian Maas (03:14):
At least is the way the mandate is presently
constituted.
Stewart Muir (03:17):
Okay.
Well, it sounds like there'ssome friction points that are
building here between thereality of today and the
aspirations that the Californiagovernment has set out.
How are consumers reacting tothis?
Brian Maas (03:32):
Because of the impact of the mandate, the fact
that this 35% rule kicks in.
This year.
We've been leading a publicaffairs campaign in California
to try and educate stakeholders,legislators, regulators, the
general public about the impactof the mandate and the potential
(03:54):
impact it's going to have onstate and local sales tax
revenue, the availability ofvehicles.
What have you?
In conjunction with that effort, we commissioned a statewide
public opinion poll and we askeddo you support a zero emission
vehicle mandate to go 100% zeroemission by 2035?
And 64% of Californians saidthey opposed it.
(04:17):
And the opposition wasconsistent throughout the state,
well over 50% in every regionof the state, and we're trying
to communicate with policymakersthat nobody's opposed to the
eventual goal of electrification.
California's obviously led thateffort, but a mandate that
nobody can comply with and onethat California voters are
(04:41):
opposed to deserves to berecalibrated.
That's the calibrate is thename of our campaign, and we'd
encourage folks to pauseenforcement of the rule until we
can figure out how to redraftit.
Stewart Muir (04:54):
Well, I'd like to dig in a little bit later into
how this is going over, whetheryou think that the goal of
recalibration in your campaignis going to be successful, but
just want to dig into a fewother things.
So when I think of Californiaand Californians, I think of
eco-friendly.
You know people who who lovethe environment.
(05:14):
Maybe they get around on thehighways of LA on all that
asphalt, but they also tend tobe much more green in their
views than the rest of thecountry.
Fair.
Brian Maas (05:24):
Yeah, I think that's fairly true.
We adopted by ballot initiativea coastal commission to
regulate development on ourcoast.
You know, over 50 years ago,and many of the environmental
policies that have spread acrossthe country have started in
California we were the first tohave an air resources agency in
(05:48):
the 60s.
It actually preceded theFederal Clean Air Act, so we've
been on the forefront ofenvironmental policy for a long
time.
Stewart Muir (05:55):
They keep meticulous records.
I've viewed what the CARB, theCalifornia Air Resources Board,
does because it's interesting tosee.
They consume a lot of Canadianoil there in the refineries to
make the gasoline that goes intothe fleet.
And boy do they keep records.
They know the exact numbers ofhow polluting this blend, if
it's from Nigeria or Iraq orCanada or whatever.
(06:18):
They've got the figures.
It's amazing.
No other jurisdiction I'm awareof keeps that kind of
information, at least that thepublic can easily see.
That's California.
So you have a Democrat governor, right?
Brian Maas (06:30):
We do.
Stewart Muir (06:30):
Now he's looking a little more not so Democrat.
He's going on Joe Rogan'spodcast.
What is he trying to do there?
Not?
Brian Maas (06:37):
look as progressive, or what's the deal?
Well, governor Newsom is termedout in 2026.
So he's in the last two yearsof his tenure as governor.
Some have speculated if he'spivoting to perhaps run for
president or some other officeor platform.
I have no idea what hisintentions are, but you know,
(07:02):
clearly, appearing on thesepodcasts, doing a podcast of his
own, making what some wouldconsider to be more moderate
policy pronouncements, has ledto that speculation.
Stewart Muir (07:15):
I wonder if there's some energy reality
that's part of that, in additionto the change in the federal
government with President Trump.
Do you sense that there is thathappening, that the aspirations
of a decade ago on theseambitious targets?
Maybe some people want to walkback a little.
Brian Maas (07:34):
Well, I think California has always dreamt big
and I don't think that's goingto change.
I think the challenge has beenthe mandates that have been put
in place don't match the rate ofprogress in some of the things
that the environmental communityhas asked for.
(07:55):
The 20-3500% ZEV mandate is oneof those.
But we've got clean energyrequirements.
We were going to shut down ourlast nuclear power plant in
California and then folksrealized oh well, that's a
quarter of the power provided inthe state.
What's going to replace it?
(08:15):
So we've extended the usefullife of that power plant.
Similar kinds of inquiries arehappening around oil refineries.
They seem to be closing morefrequently and that puts
(08:40):
pressure on our fuelinfrastructure because,
regardless of how ambitious youwant to be about zero emission
vehicles, internal combustionvehicles are here for a few more
decades and we need gasoline,refined gasoline, to go into the
tanks of those cars.
And if we don't have therefinery capacity, the price of
gas is going to go through theroof.
Stewart Muir (08:52):
Now consumers feel good about EVs right.
Brian Maas (08:56):
Yeah, generally speaking they do.
I think everybody understandsthat it's great technology and I
think a lot of Californianswould like to have one.
I mentioned the public opinionpoll we did.
The number one reason consumerscited for not making the
transition to a zero emissionvehicle is the lack of public
charging infrastructure.
(09:17):
We're woefully behind whatwould be required to move to
100% environment.
Stewart Muir (09:23):
If you're enjoying Power Struggle, make sure to
subscribe, like and share thisepisode, because it helps us
bring fact-based energyconversations to more people
across Canada and beyond.
Brian Maas (09:34):
Woefully behind what would be required to move to
100% environment.
And if you live in amultifamily dwelling, an
apartment building or somethinglike that, you can't charge at
home, so you would have to relyon a public charger.
Where do you go to get thatcharged?
And just to give you some datapoints, the state's Energy
(09:59):
Commission has said we need amillion public chargers by 2030
and two million public chargersby 2035.
We only have 178,000 now andwe're adding less than 50,000
public chargers a year.
We're just not going to getthere fast enough to meet the
mandate that's on the books now.
Stewart Muir (10:18):
A little story.
I was Coming into Los Angeleswith my family.
We flew into LAX, it was kindof late at night, busy time of
year, and there were a lot ofpeople went to the budget to get
the car.
I had a car booked and therewas this huge lineup where the
back of like 200 people liningup.
I'm thinking, well, we havelike three hour drive ahead of
us, we'll get there.
(10:39):
The line's moving.
But then an employee from budgetwas coming down the lineup
talking to people, I don't knowwhy.
And eventually he got to me andthis kindly woman said we have
a nice offer for you.
If you would like, we have thatelectric Ford Mustang over
there.
You can take it right now andyou can bypass this huge lineup.
(10:59):
It's only 50% charged but we'regoing to give you a discount.
And it was Christmas, I thinksome sort of you know, seasonal
incentive.
And I thought I'm driving withmy family on the highways that I
don't know that well throughthe night I'm not sure what the
charging situation will be.
I have to take a pass.
So we spent an extra half hourwaiting but, you know, not one
(11:20):
person out of hundreds wouldtake that offer.
I was a little surprised.
I thought someone would go forit.
Maybe word has gotten around.
It feels like the public that Iwas exposed to maybe there were
travelers, maybe there werelocals coming home, I don't know
were kind of not feelingconfident about the California
charging infrastructure.
Brian Maas (11:40):
Yeah, I think you know the anecdotal stories from
drivers that are dealers here.
Is somebody really wants to?
You know the anecdotal storiesfrom drivers that are dealers
here.
Is somebody really wants to?
You know they'reenvironmentally conscious.
They want to do their part tocombat climate change.
I'd like to drive an EV.
And then they realize when theyget it home oh, where do I
(12:02):
charge this car?
How fast can I charge it?
How much does it cost All thosekinds of things?
And so, as much as some peoplewant to poo-poo it, range
anxiety and the availability ofpublic charging infrastructure
is a top of mind issue and againwe deserve a lot of credit.
(12:23):
We're 20% EV market share.
That's fantastic, but to get tothe next level we're going to
have to make significantinvestments in the charging
infrastructure to have touristslike you, stuart, feel
comfortable when you're cominginto town and renting a car, and
people who live in apartmentbuildings or other places
(12:44):
without a garage charger havethem feel comfortable.
Stewart Muir (12:48):
Now I understand that California and some other
states are filing a lawsuitagainst the Trump administration
on the lack of funding forbuilding the EV infrastructure.
Are they legit?
Brian Maas (13:00):
The debate a little bit, little bit.
My understanding, based onmedia accounts of the lawsuit,
is during the lastadministration, when biden was
president, congress passed evcharging infrastructure funding
mechanisms and california andthese other states are suing
(13:20):
because trump is trying to stopthe distribution of those
already authorized funds andthey're arguing that Congress
passed it, president signed it,the money needs to go out the
door and the Trumpadministration is saying no, we
don't want to spend that moneyand that's the nature of the
(13:41):
lawsuit.
So they're fighting overalready allocated funds At this
point.
California and the other stateswant the money and the Trump
administration is saying no, wedon't want to send you the money
, we have different priorities.
Stewart Muir (13:54):
Right Now I'm talking to you from British
Columbia, where the governmenthas pursued what I understand to
be the most ambitious EV policy, you know, getting to 100%
really quickly.
So it's one of those probablyrare cases where BC or anywhere
else is more green thanCalifornia is because California
(14:15):
is so green.
But you know, this issue, Ithink, is bedeviling people who
want to make a good choice forthe environment in their next
vehicle but at the same timethey're counting their pennies.
Is it more expensive to buy afamily level vehicle that's EV
compared to a gasoline one inCalifornia?
Brian Maas (14:37):
Yes, it is.
Depending on the vehicle andthe manufacturer, it can be a
few thousand to more than$10,000 price differential
between a non-electric andelectric version of the same
vehicle.
And when you're, you know,pinching pennies.
That's a difficult choice tomake, no matter what your
(15:01):
political stance might be oryour motivation to switch to an
EV.
What your political stancemight be, or your motivation to
switch to an EV, you've got tofigure out how to purchase that
vehicle, and 80% of vehiclespurchased in California are
financed.
So then you've got to figureout well, what's the interest
rate going to be on my loan andall those kinds of factors you
have to consider.
So it's just another impedimentin the transition to
(15:26):
electrification.
Stewart Muir (15:27):
Now suppose that California doesn't get to 35% of
new cars sold or electricvehicles by 2026.
What will happen?
Is there some enforcementbehind this?
Brian Maas (15:40):
That's a great question.
So really one of two, twothings is going to happen.
So the regulation stipulatesthat a manufacturer that doesn't
meet the 35% threshold has topay a fine of over $20,000 per
vehicle.
What so?
(16:00):
The manufacturers have told ourdealers they're not going to
pay the fines.
So then you say, okay, well,what's the other option?
Well, the other option isthey're going to restrict
allocation of non-EVs to ourdealers in order to hit the 35%
threshold.
Easy way to think about it.
You've got a hypotheticaldealer that sells 100 cars in
(16:24):
any period of time.
Roughly 20% of those are EVs.
That's the statewide average.
Well, 20% is not 35%.
So in order to get that number20 to count as 35%, you have to
reduce the number 100, the totalamount of vehicles sent to that
(16:45):
dealer, the total amount ofvehicles sent to that dealer to
a much lower number, so that 20now is 35% of the total sold.
So we think there are going tobe profound impacts across the
state on the number of availablevehicles that consumers
otherwise would have access toand be willing to buy.
That means they may go toArizona and Nevada to buy
vehicles.
(17:05):
It's going to screw upallocation of vehicles
nationally.
You won't be able to find an EVin Nevada and you won't be able
to find an internal combustionengine vehicle in California,
all those kinds of things andthen it'll be a lower number of
vehicles sold, totally, so stateand local sales tax revenue
will be impacted.
And then you start thinkingwell, what about fleet operators
(17:27):
, police fire they need vehiclestoo.
Are they going to be able toget the vehicles that they need?
So we're trying to communicatethese impacts, and it's the
mandate that's the problem, notthe goal of electrification, and
that's the message we're tryingto communicate.
Stewart Muir (17:49):
Right, so this applies to 2026 year model cars.
When do those cars startarriving in the lots?
Brian Maas (17:56):
Some 26 models, believe it or not, are already
arriving at dealerships in BCand in California.
At dealerships in BC and inCalifornia, and you'll probably
see the most profound impact,usually by late summer.
(18:18):
Early fall is when mostmanufacturers start moving
through their 25-year modelvehicles and moving into 2026.
Stewart Muir (18:21):
So you must hope you're wrong about this
prediction about the lack ofvehicles for sale.
Brian Maas (18:26):
Well, what we're hoping is that we take the
manufacturers at their word thatthey're going to throttle
inventory to our dealers, andthat's why we're asking the
regulators to pause enforcementof the mandate.
Don't throw the baby out withthe bathwater.
You can still move toward 100percent electrification, but
you're going to have to adjustthe rule at some future point to
(18:50):
do this.
Maryland's governor, forexample, just issued a pause in
enforcement for two years inMaryland.
Maryland follows California'srules, so we're using that as an
example to say this can be done.
Let's delay enforcement untilwe get a better idea of how we
can recalibrate the mandategoing forward.
Stewart Muir (19:11):
Okay.
So on electric vehicles,California's got this aggressive
plan.
We'll soon find out whetherit's going to work or not work
in the short term, but there'sother things going on.
You mentioned refineries, andCalifornia has been phasing out
the oil refineries that createthe gasoline that is consumed,
like in the movies, all over thegreat state of California.
(19:33):
But in phasing out thoserefineries, has fuel demand
disappeared?
Brian Maas (19:37):
No, Fuel demand has slowed a bit.
Obviously, with more EVs sold,it's not perhaps growing at the
pace it used to grow, but fueldemand continues to be
significant and you know it's asupply and demand marketplace.
So our price of gasoline, thepremium that California
(20:00):
consumers pay for gas, is acouple bucks a gallon more than
the rest of the country andthat's significant impact on
California consumers.
Stewart Muir (20:14):
That's pretty interesting.
Wasn't there a refineryrecently that was going to close
down, a company that owned?
It said we're going to have toclose, but then the authority
said do you mind not closing?
Brian Maas (20:30):
Yeah, I mean I think there's considerable pressure
on these companies to try andfigure out how to stay open, but
we have other environmentalrules that impact refineries
directly.
I'm not an expert in that area.
We have what's called a lowcarbon fuel standard and the
idea is people who are producingcarbon-based fuels have to pay
a premium to do that, and thosecosts are passed on to consumers
(20:55):
at the gas pump.
So if refineries can'tprofitably stay open, it's going
to impact the availability andprice of gasoline for all of the
Californians who need it.
And again, just taking newvehicles, 80% of new vehicles
sold are not EVs.
(21:15):
They're internal combustion orhybrids, so they still need
gasoline.
Stewart Muir (21:21):
So if someone says well, I can't buy the gasoline
powered car of my choice here inCalifornia, so I'm going to
look around.
I'm going to go to Arizona oh,there's none there.
I'm going to keep going.
I'm going to go to Texas orwherever they need to go.
They'll find that car and bringit home.
When they get home will I haveto pay that $20,000 penalty?
Brian Maas (21:43):
We don't know how that's going to impact.
So the way the rule is draftedis if you don't meet the 35%,
the manufacturer has to pay thepenalty.
We don't know how theauthorities are going to enforce
a rule on that hypotheticalcustomer that finds the car in
(22:04):
Texas and tries to bring it backand register in California.
Because, unlike prior emissionrequirements, if it had a
catalytic converter you couldsee that the vehicle does or
doesn't have it.
You could open the hood, youcould verify that.
That's true.
But you can't tell by lookingat a car whether it's a
California-compliant ICE vehicleor a non-California-compliant
(22:29):
ICE vehicle.
They're all the same.
So we're not sure how the ruleis going to be enforced.
Under the prior regime therewas what we call a 7,500-mile
rule, where you couldn'tregister a vehicle that's
non-compliant in Californiauntil it has 7,500 miles on the
odometer.
But again, how do you knowwhether a vehicle you bought in
(22:52):
Texas is a non-compliant vehicle?
We don't know how that's goingto shake out.
It's just another uncertaintypiled on top of all these other
uncertainties.
And again, why we're asking fora pause in enforcement until we
can figure all this out.
Stewart Muir (23:08):
Well, look, it's uncanny how similar a lot of the
California rules on EVs andwhat you've been describing are
to British Columbia.
Like the same years, verysimilar target numbers, even
$20,000.
That's a number.
Initially there was a penaltyof $5,000 per car over this
quota in British Columbia, butthen they changed it a year ago.
(23:29):
I heard when is this comingfrom?
Who's thinking up the exactsame thing?
And then California and BC areadopting virtually the same
policy.
Bc's a little more aggressive.
Is that coming from thegovernments themselves or some
other source?
Brian Maas (23:43):
It's a good question .
I think there are folks in theenvironmental community want to
accelerate the transition toelectrification.
They're prevailing upon theleaders of governments to take
that mantle and demonstrate totheir citizenry and other
(24:05):
jurisdictions that this can bedone.
So that's how you get a 100%zero emission vehicle mandate by
2035 in California.
That's how BC gets its mandate.
People want to be leaders anddemonstrate that they're doing
their part to move thistransition forward.
Unfortunately, when the mandateis too far out front of the
(24:28):
market, you have the presentsituation we've been talking
about the last few minutes,stuart is you've got a rule
that's far ahead of where thereality is and we're going to
have some real difficulty thissummer unless there's a pause.
Stewart Muir (24:42):
I've always wanted to ask this question to someone
in your position, Brian.
Are gasoline cars getting moreefficient in terms of emissions?
Brian Maas (24:53):
Absolutely.
The vehicles on the road todaydon't emit criteria-pollutant
smog-producing gases virtuallyat all.
What the fight is over isgreenhouse gases, which is
(25:14):
largely carbon dioxide, and ifyou have an internal combustion
engine and you burn fuel, you'regoing to produce carbon dioxide
, but the kind of pollutantsthat created the smoggy
environments in Los Angeles inthe 70s.
Virtually no vehicle isproducing those things anymore
in the light duty market.
(25:34):
So these are extremely cleanvehicles.
They're highly fuel efficient.
You can buy hybrid sedans thatare averaging over 50 miles a
gallon and you can buy them for$30,000.
So you can get great fueleconomy.
You can get very clean vehicleswith internal combustion engine
(25:56):
technologies, but what youcan't do, at least as of today,
is have an ICE vehicle thatdoesn't burn CO2.
And that, ultimately, is thereason why environmentalists and
these regulators want totransition to electric vehicles,
because, of course, they don'tproduce any carbon dioxide.
Stewart Muir (26:17):
Now is the amount of CO2 released in these latest
cars less than it used to be, orthe same?
Brian Maas (26:22):
Sure, especially on a per mile basis, used to be.
Or the same Sure, Especially ona per mile basis.
You know the more fuelefficient the vehicle is, the
less fuel that's going to burn.
So if you can add hybridtechnology to these vehicles and
or you can make them go furtheron a gallon of gasoline you're
burning less gas per mile driven.
(26:43):
That helps the environment.
Stewart Muir (26:46):
Right Now I'm reasonably sure that the car
choice I make in BritishColumbia, or if I was in Quebec
or Massachusetts, that choicewouldn't affect the kind of car
you have to drive in California.
But is it true that the carsyou have in California determine
the cars that everyone else hasto drive?
Brian Maas (27:03):
Well, to some extent .
California is the fourthlargest economy in the world.
One out of every eight new carssold in the United States is
sold in California, and we havethe Air Resources Board that
dictates environmental policynot just for California but the
11 other states that followCalifornia.
Stewart Muir (27:24):
And that's been, from a pollution point of view,
pretty positive impact.
Brian Maas (27:28):
Absolutely.
You know as much as I cancriticize the current EV mandate
as drafted, it's indisputablethat the Air Resources Board has
done a very effective job inpushing the manufacturers to
build more fuel efficient andless polluting vehicles, and
(27:52):
society and the industry andeverybody deserves a ton of
credit for that change.
The air is a lot cleaner nowthan it was 50 years ago, in
large part because of thepolicies the Air Resources Board
has adopted.
Stewart Muir (28:09):
And that's been a profitable business for the
manufacturers of those cars, Itake it.
Brian Maas (28:13):
It has.
They've had to make lots ofsignificant adjustments to meet
those mandates, the priormandates, but they've done so
and have remained profitable,with, of course, the exception
of the Great Recession in2008-09.
Stewart Muir (28:30):
Now, what are the biggest sellers from American
manufacturers of EVs inCalifornia, or what brands?
Brian Maas (28:36):
The top EV sellers in California are Tesla.
The Model 3 and the Model Y arethe top two EV sellers.
Model 3 and the Model Y are thetop two EV sellers, but close
behind them are some of theHyundai vehicles, the Ford
Mustang, and of the top 25 EVs,four of them are Tesla and the
(29:01):
rest are distributed across allthe other major manufacturers.
So the EV marketplace looksconsiderably different than it
did five or 10 years ago.
Tesla dominated the market.
They were the only real game intown, with a possible exception
of the Nissan Leaf.
(29:22):
Well, now virtually everymanufacturer's got an EV or
multiple EVs, got an EV ormultiple EVs, and non-Tesla
manufacturers have now exceededTesla's market share in EVs for
the first time in California.
Stewart Muir (29:32):
Now I told you about my experience at LAX and
you told me about the lack ofchargers.
Are these EVs flying off thelot?
Brian Maas (29:41):
No, unfortunately, our sales have stagnated a bit
over the last eight quarters.
We produce on our website areport every quarter that tracks
vehicle registrations in ourstate and we can see you know
what the trends are.
(30:02):
What the trends are, andlargely because Tesla sales have
been dropping substantiallyeven though other EV sales have
been increasing, it hasn't beenenough to increase the EV market
share very much.
So we've kind of stagnated atabout the 20, 21% EV market
share threshold over the lastcouple of years and we're not
(30:26):
making the kind of progress weneed to meet the 35% threshold
we talked about earlier.
Stewart Muir (30:32):
So we talked about 2026 models.
What do you think will happenin 2027?
Brian Maas (30:37):
It's a great question.
Obviously, the manufacturershave long-term product cycles.
It takes something like fiveyears from the concept of a
vehicle to be mass-produced.
So they were thinking about2027 vehicles back in 2022.
(30:59):
They're coming.
There'll be more EVs availablein 2027 for consumers to choose
from.
What happens with the policyenvironment whether this ZEV
mandate stays in place, theimpact of tariffs or other
public policy changes is goingto have a dramatic impact on the
(31:20):
market, but the pipeline isalready in process for the 27
vehicles.
Stewart Muir (31:26):
But the pipeline is already in process for the 27
vehicles.
Now, against the backdrop ofall this happening in California
(31:50):
and hey, similar in BC could beavailable in every driveway in
the country if they were allowedto be, and consumers would
probably be very happy to havethose low-priced cars.
Brian Maas (31:58):
Yeah, it's a public policy challenge and it's the
intersection of whether youallow cheaper, more inexpensive
EVs that are produced in Chinaor elsewhere into the market
versus the public policy,foreign policy concerns of are
(32:23):
they going to undermine theability of domestic or North
American manufacturers frombeing able to transition to EVs?
If BYD is the biggest EVmanufacturer in the world now
it's past Tesla, a large Chinesecompany.
They've had great success inBrazil and Mexico producing EVs.
(32:47):
They're substantially cheaperthan many of the EVs available
now.
If you opened up the market toBYD, they'd probably sell a lot
of EVs, no doubt, but at theexpense of the financial health
of North American manufacturersand then their foreign policy
concerns.
Do we, as Americans, wantChinese companies coming to the
(33:10):
United States and dominatingwhat had traditionally been an
important domestic or NorthAmerican industry?
And that's the policy debatethat's going on right now.
Interestingly, both the Bidenadministration and the Trump
administration agreed not to letChinese vehicles in to the
(33:32):
United States, so so far they'renot here, but I think that
debate is going to continue torage in the coming years.
Stewart Muir (33:39):
Now I believe the Canadian government, as soon as
President Biden did what youjust said, followed suit.
This whole issue of EVs yes orno, or the pace it can be one of
those issues that seems to beassumed to be a proxy for how
you feel about the environmentor other issues, social or
economic issues, fairly orunfairly.
(34:01):
How do you think Californiansare feeling about this issue?
Do they feel divided?
Do they feel that they're goingdown the right road or not?
Going down the right road Is?
Is this, is this simple issueof what kind of car you buy
having, you know, a deeperinfluence on how people think
and feel?
Brian Maas (34:21):
Yeah, I mean uh, as you said at the top, stuart, I
mean California invented carculture and in certain markets
of the state you know,especially Los Angeles, what you
drive is a representation ofwho you are and it's very
important for those consumers tohave the vehicle that they want
(34:44):
to represent the kind of personthat they are.
You saw that manifested by thesignificant market share that
Tesla had.
Well, now that Mr Musk hasbecome politically controversial
and has been participating inthe Trump administration, you
have a lot of Californians and,frankly, tesla owners across the
(35:06):
country who are conflicted bythat.
On the one hand, they lovedriving an EV, they want to
support electrification and whathave you, but they don't
necessarily want to beassociated with Mr Musk or the
Tesla brand any longer.
So I think you're starting tosee that conflict kind of play
itself out in the minds ofCalifornians and those that
(35:32):
would like to make a statementabout I'm supporting
electrification of the vehiclefleet by the vehicle I own.
If the vehicle they own is aTesla, they're conflicted right
now.
Here in British Columbia, weoften look to California as a
model for a lot of things.
If the vehicle they own is aTesla they're conflicted right
now.
Stewart Muir (35:46):
Here in British Columbia, we often look to
California as a model for a lotof things Same climate goals,
same clean energy talk, and bothof us on the left coast of our
countries, as we say in BritishColumbia.
Brian Maas (35:58):
That is another thing in common, Brian from your
perspective, what shouldBritish Columbians be watching
most carefully as we shape ourenergy path here, as we're
following a little bit behindyou?
Yeah, I think, for all of us whoare interested in addressing
climate change, we have to bewilling to accept progress and
(36:19):
that progress may not happen asrapidly as some might wish, as
rapidly as some might wish, andwe have to be willing to take
credit for moving the ballforward and understand that
things may not happen quite asquickly as some would like,
especially when you'retransitioning, in the case of
(36:41):
electric vehicles, fromtechnology that consumers have
been using for over 100 yearsinternal combustion engine
vehicles.
You can't just snap yourfingers and say we're going to
go from 100 years of ICEvehicles.
We have 280 million ICEvehicles on the road in the
United States.
We're going to get rid of allthose and we're going to go to
(37:02):
EVs in a matter of a decade.
It's just not going to bepossible.
So how do we design policies toaccelerate that progress while
recognizing that it is atransition and it's going to
take time?
Stewart Muir (37:17):
Yeah, and you have all the green electricity you
need to do that right.
Brian Maas (37:21):
Not quite.
We're obviously makingsignificant progress in that
regard but depending on you knowthe weather or the status of
fires or what have you, we mayhave to import natural gas.
You know solar doesn't work at3 am.
(37:43):
You know solar doesn't work at3 am, so we need battery storage
to get through those things.
So we're making significantprogress, but we've got a ways
to go.
Stewart Muir (37:52):
Well, it's just as well you didn't shut down that
last nuclear plant in the stateyou mentioned.
Look, is there one policy moveor structural decision that
California has made that youthink in BC we would be well
advised to replicate?
Brian Maas (38:07):
That's a good question.
I think encouraging a diversegroup of renewable energy
options is a smart policy and,by and large, california has
done a good job of encouragingsolar, wind, biofuels, nuclear,
(38:32):
whatever it's going to be.
A diverse mix is going to makethe most sense long term.
A one size fits all energysolution, I think, could lead to
bottlenecks or problems downthe road.
So the other thing I would sayis it's one thing to encourage
(38:53):
these technologies, it's anotherthing to mandate these
technologies and, as we talkedabout at length about electric
vehicles, if you're requiring acertain number, be hit by a
certain date and the marketisn't ready or prepared to get
you there, you're going to havea policy roadblock that's going
(39:16):
to create difficulty for BCresidents or, in our case,
californians.
Stewart Muir (39:21):
Quick little game.
I'm going to make a statementand you say red flag or green
light and give me a sentence onwhy.
Number one tiered EV mandatestarting 2027.
Brian Maas (39:34):
Red flag, and the reason is we're not prepared to
meet the mandates thatCalifornia has developed so far.
Stewart Muir (39:43):
New hydro megaproject to power chargers.
Brian Maas (39:48):
I guess I'd say green flag.
The challenge is where do youbuild this hydro project?
Which river or lake are yougoing to dam to produce that
power?
Hydropower should be part ofthe solution.
Stewart Muir (40:04):
Moratorium on new refining capacity.
Brian Maas (40:07):
Absolute red flag.
You can't have an effectivetransition from ICE to EV by
cutting off the ability to fuelICE vehicles.
You've got to have enoughrefinery capacity to get us
through the transition.
Stewart Muir (40:23):
Subsidy swap Income-tested purchase grants.
Brian Maas (40:27):
Generally speaking, I'd give that a red flag.
If you want to encourage thepurchase of vehicles, say you
need to price the vehicles at aneffective price so that folks
of all economic means areinterested in buying it.
Governments don't have enoughcredit money to dole out credits
(40:50):
to everybody for everything, soit's incentivizing
manufacturers to make thevehicles at the retail price
that's effective, not adding ongovernment credits Long term.
That's not the right solution.
Stewart Muir (41:03):
Okay, last one Tesla Cybertruck in every
driveway.
Brian Maas (41:07):
Red flag.
I represent franchise new cardealers.
Tesla doesn't use franchisees,so if they use franchise dealers
, love for them to compete andhave a Cybertruck in everybody's
driveway, but since they don'tuse franchise dealers, I'm not a
fan.
Stewart Muir (41:22):
This has been absolutely fascinating.
I'm curious, though youprobably represent, through the
dealers that are members of yourassociation, a lot of different
brands and models.
What's the buzziest car modelcoming out in 2026 in California
?
What are people really excitedabout?
Brian Maas (41:41):
But boy, that's a.
That's a tough question to ask.
I think people are looking atnew EV models and saying, wow,
some of these vehicles.
You know you had the VW ID Buzz.
You know a reincarnation of theold VW bus.
(42:03):
A lot of people were interestedin that.
Kia and Hyundai are producinglarger SUVs that are EVs.
A lot of people are looking atthose vehicles.
Cadillac's coming out with asignificant number of EVs, so I
think there's a lot of interestin these things.
(42:23):
The challenge is, with thepolicy uncertainty and the
discussion around, you know ourprice is going to go up, or what
have you.
I think the excitement over theintroduction of these new
vehicles has been temperedsomewhat while we wait to see
how the dust settles with someof the policy changes that are
(42:45):
happening.
Stewart Muir (42:45):
How about Rolls-Royce?
Do they have an EV yet?
Brian Maas (42:49):
I'm not aware that they do.
Stewart Muir (42:51):
I heard they were talking about one, but I didn't
see it was out there.
What about Bentley or Maybachor some of those ultra
prestigious Hollywood star kindof cars?
Brian Maas (43:00):
Yeah, I think I saw that Bentley was going to be
producing an EV, but that'sprobably out of year in my price
range.
Stewart Muir (43:09):
Yeah, yeah, what do you drive?
Brian Maas (43:10):
I drive a Lexus plug-in electric hybrid.
Stewart Muir (43:15):
Lexus plug-in.
Well, it must be a good choice,because you have all the
information on what's the bestcar.
So I'll remember that one whenI go car shopping one of these
years.
Brian Maas (43:26):
Fantastic.
Stewart Muir (43:26):
Look, Brian, it's been amazing.
I'm kind of a car geek, so thiscould go long, but we better
not subject our listeners atPower Struggle to that and we'll
leave them with the best ofthis conversation.
So, to our listeners andwatchers, if this conversation
gave you something to thinkabout, consider subscribing,
which you can do through all theusual channels, including
(43:48):
YouTube, and if you're listeningon Apple or Spotify or any
other podcasting app, why notleave a review If you like this?
Wherever I go, I go to a lot ofconferences People are telling
me we're doing good work here.
They appreciate it.
Power Struggle is addressingwhat we call the energy trilemma
.
You know these aren't easythings and what Brian has
described this afternoon is notsimple stuff.
(44:10):
You know, people trying to dothe right thing, but also
reality intrudes in ways thataren't necessarily expected.
So I'd love to hear yourcomments about what Brian's been
talking about today.
And to you, Brian, thank youfor being here.
Really appreciate giving thatperspective today.
So thanks a lot.
Brian Maas (44:27):
Thanks for having me , stuart, really enjoyed the
conversation.
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.