Episode Transcript
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Elise Kiely (00:10):
Hello friends.
This is Elise Kiely, your hostof Kiely, and a global real
estate advisor with LegacyProperties, Sotheby's,
international Realty.
Welcome back to another marketupdate where we don't just look
at numbers.
We read the tea leaves of what'shappening nationally and what it
means for real estate here inMaine.
(00:32):
And today's phrase of the dayis, Maine moves differently
because while the nationalheadlines can look a little
shaky, Maine real estate is itsown story.
Signature lifestyle propertiesthat often define Maine real
estate.
They're generational.
In other words, they don't comeup often, and when they do,
(00:54):
savvy buyers know they have toact quickly.
Well, let's start with anational market update.
As of today, early September,2025, the national average of a
30 year fixed mortgage issitting either side of six and a
half and, and in fact, I've seenit as low as just under 6.3%.
(01:14):
Now, this of course, depends onyour lender and your loan type
and credit score and so forth.
And what's interestingnationally in July, existing
home sales rose just 2% comparedto June, and about 4 million
homes traded hands.
And what's really important tonote is that the median national
sales price was$422,400.
(01:38):
That's basically flat comparedto last year.
So we haven't seen a lot ofprice growth nationally, and
that's consistent with a lot ofheadlines that you may have been
seeing about real estate acrossthe United States.
However, the real story innational real estate is
inventory.
1.55 million homes are on themarket nationwide.
(02:01):
That's the most since 2020, andthat is up 16% year over year.
What that means is that buyersnow have more leverage than
they've had in the last fiveyears.
And in fact, builders across thecountry are starting to make
concessions, lower prices,offering to buy down rates, and
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buyers are showing caution.
Cancellations are at theirhighest level in years.
That means when a buyer puts aproperty under contract, they're
terminating that contract andnot closing rather than going
through and buying the property.
And that's happening, especiallyin markets like Texas and
Florida.
And then there are the lifestyleshifts.
The Juxtapositioning, arelatively stagnant national
(02:45):
real estate market withhomeowners enhancing properties
for unique and very specificactivities.
For example, there has been atrend in higher end homes of
people putting basketballcourts, not on the first level,
not on the ground level, but inbasements of homes, and some are
converting formal dining roomsinto Mahjong lounges.
(03:07):
Homeowners are investing sixfigures to create spaces that
fit how they actually live andenhance their activities.
Now, on the other side of themarket, we have the lock-in
effect, and what that means isthat homeowners with a low
interest rate of three, orsometimes even in the twos
percent interest rate, they'relocked into their home and can't
(03:30):
afford to sell.
And that's having a big impactas well.
In fact, we're seeing divorcingcouples opting to live together
rather than sell a house with a3% mortgage.
In fact, there was one couple inFlorida where they had a 2%
interest rate, and rather thanliving separately, they agreed
(03:50):
that he would live in the houseand she would live in the
Airstream trailer in the yard,and the children would go
between each of those.
That's the lock in effect inaction.
On a policy level, as Iexplained this in my last real
estate market update, PresidentTrump has floated the idea of
eliminating a capital gains taxon home sales.
(04:11):
And Marjorie Taylor Greene, therepresentative from Georgia, is
sponsoring legislation tosupport this.
Now, if this happens, expertssay it likely won't help most
home sellers because there's acurrent.
$250,000 for single homeowners,or a$500,000 for married couples
exemption on capital gains thatcovers the majority of
(04:33):
homeowners.
So the biggest benefit of thispotential legislation would go
to owners in very high equitymarkets, markets like
California, Hawaii, and, and wehave some of those, uh,
properties here in Maine aswell.
While speaking of Maine, let'sbring it back home to Maine.
The Maine Association ofRealtors reports in July that we
(04:55):
had just over 1500 homes soldstatewide.
That's up 5% from last year, andour median sales price is pretty
close to the national mediansales price.
We're just around 420,000.
But that's a 5% increasecompared to last year.
But the real story, so we haveappreciation in prices.
(05:16):
We have an increase in thenumber of homes that have sold
and our inventory is climbing.
It has climbed now to roughlyaround 5,400 homes, and that's
the most since October of 2020.
So that's the most inventorythat we've seen in the last five
years we're seeing right now.
Now looking at things by county,Cumberland County saw sales rise
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14% with a median sales price ofover 600,000.
Lincoln County, which I'veshared before, is just been a
standout in its appreciation andthe number of sales.
Their sales are up 24% and theirmedian price has increased by
12%.
That is a county to keep an eyeon as prices are continuing to
(05:59):
appreciate significantly there.
And again, I think that'sbecause some people are being
priced out of Cumberland Countyand are moving up to Lincoln
County.
Similarly, York County and thesouthern part of the state sales
are up 13% and the median salesprice is about 550.
So Maine is moving, it's movingdifferently than the national
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market, which seems to becooling Some other main notes
that are interesting when youthink about real estate in this
area.
Portland's property revaluationhas pushed the median
residential values up 43%.
Now they've dropped the taxrate, but because the valuations
have risen so significantly,many homeowners are seeing
(06:42):
higher tax bills and it'ssomething to keep an eye on.
Another interesting developmentis in the suburb Yarmouth, which
is three towns north ofPortland.
There's a new six monthmoratorium on development.
Because the pump station, thesewer pump station has reached
capacity.
And so they're restricting newbuilds, additions, and even the
(07:03):
ability of some homeowners toadd an extra bedroom until the
infrastructure can be upgraded.
And I think what is mostsignificant, and this has been a
consistent theme that I'vetouched on in many real estate
market updates, is that theolder sellers who I
affectionately call LABBs luxuryactive baby boomers, they
continue to drive activity inboth the condo and the second
(07:27):
home markets.
They are often prioritizingsimplicity and speed over top
dollar, and what I mean by thatis on the sell side, they're
willing to leave a little moneyon the table if it means they
can negotiate a deal with greatdegree of certainty and a fast
sale.
They do not want uncertainty intheir real estate transactions.
(07:49):
They want to sell and move on totheir next chapter.
On the buy side, when they see asignature property that fits
their lifestyle and will attracttheir children, and more
importantly their grandchildrenand friends to come and visit
and stay and linger in theirproperty, they will strike fast
on the buy side.
So now I want to talk about oneof the unique aspects of Maine
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real estate, and that isSignature Maine properties and
generational ownership.
Here's where Maine really bucksthe national trend.
Our most sought after propertiesare often generational.
And what do I mean by that?
I mean, these properties don'ttrade hands every five or even
10 years.
These properties, because theyare special, because they are
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unique, because they provideeasy access to a healthy, often
outdoor active lifestyle.
These properties stay in thesame families for decades.
For example, I had a couple ofsales off market sales in the
last few months.
One on Curtis Road in Yarmouth.
It's a waterfront home withsweeping views.
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Was held by this one family fordecades.
I represented the sellers in aprivate off market sale for over
$3 million.
Similarly, in Falmouth in thetown landing area, a very
special property overlooking themooring field at town landing.
Also sold privately off marketfor over$3 million.
(09:18):
Both of these homes had beenheld in the same family for
decades and in the Falmouthhome.
It had passed betweengenerations and my new listing
at one and two 10th Street inScarborough's Pine Point
neighborhood, which is two homeson a rare three quarter
beachfront lot is offered for3.9 million.
(09:39):
This property has only beenowned by two families since the
1950s.
So this is not unusual in thePine Point neighborhood.
Beachfront or beach access homesare so highly desirable, not
only by the homeowner, but bythe multiple generations of
children, grandchildren, nieces,nephews, cousins, uncles, aunts
(10:04):
that come and gather at thesebeachfront homes.
That the house will stay in thesame family getting passed to
different members of the familybecause it means so much to have
that connection, that commongathering spot filled with
memories and family events.
These are the kinds of homesthat define Maine real estate.
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They're rare, they'regenerational, where lifestyle,
history and community allintersect.
And when they come up for sale,you can't wait.
They may not be available againfor another 50 years.
I want to turn now to a quickpolicy and tax note at the main
level.
A reminder for anyoneconsidering selling starting
(10:46):
November 1st, main real estatetransfer tax more than doubles
on the portion of the sale abovea million dollars for buyers and
sellers that share this transfertax equally, you have a strong
incentive to try to close beforethe November 1st deadline.
So let me end with some ofElise's insights and
(11:07):
predictions.
What do I take from all of thisinformation?
Well, for buyers, I think fallinto winter of 2025 and maybe
early 26.
I think that's the sweet spot.
We have a growing amount ofinventory here in Maine.
We have less competition fromother buyers because interest
rates still are hovering eitherside of that six point a half
(11:29):
percent, and buyers typicallyare seeing more negotiating room
than we will likely see nextspring if mortgage rates
continue to fall this will bringin more buyers, giving more
competition for buyers for theinventory that we have.
For sellers, I cannotoveremphasize this.
Be strategic.
Don't assume you can priceaspirationally or overprice.
(11:54):
Use private marketing strategiesstage thoughtfully and
strategically.
Remember, condition is becomingincreasingly important.
Look at your property with afresh, objective eye, and if
your property is valued over amillion, consider closing before
November 1st.
Overall, Maine remains strong.
(12:16):
Nationally, we're seeing somemarkets lose value, but here
demand is steady, especially forlifestyle driven properties and
cash buyers still, about onethird of our market here in
Maine are a stabilizing force.
And let's not forget, realestate is never just about
numbers.
It's about how and where peoplewant to live, whether Mainers,
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cherishing waterfront homespassed down through generations,
or a couple downsizing to a moremanageable home or a young
person starting out lifestyledrives real estate.
Maine continues to rank amongthe top states to live, retire,
and raise families and fordining, well Portland's owned
Fourth Street and Scales, whichis one of my personal favorites,
(13:03):
made the Open Table Top 100list, these are economic drivers
that bring people to Maine andencourage them to stay and
linger and often buy secondhomes or primary homes.
So yes, main moves differently.
And if you're ready to buy orsell, let's read the tea leaves
(13:24):
together and make your next movestrategic.
If you enjoyed today's episode,please share it with a friend, a
neighbor, or a coworker, andfollow along with more
conversations about real estate,design, lifestyle, and community
here in Maine.
And remember that this podcastis for informational and
(13:44):
educational purposes only anddoes not create a real estate
advisory or attorney-clientrelationship.
However, if I can be ofassistance to you in your real
estate journey, please send mean email to elise@eliseKiely.com
or comment on this episode.
Until next time, this is EliseKiely, with Elegant Maine living
(14:06):
the way life should be and keepliving with elegance.