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September 22, 2025 15 mins

September isn’t just the end of summer. It’s retail’s reset button. In this episode, I, Clare Bailey, The Retail Champion, am talking you through why September is the real starting gun for quarter four.

From the back-to-uni boom to freshers’ week loyalty grabs, and Halloween’s shaky baskets, the signs are everywhere: heritage alone won’t protect the High Street.

Woolworths, Debenhams, Claire’s Accessories, River Island — all proof that nostalgia can’t compete with fast-moving consumer behaviour.

I'll break down the mood, the numbers, and the brutal truth: if you’re not ruthlessly relevant, quarter four will eat you alive.

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Episode Transcript

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Retail Reckoning Episode four Sept 22 Clare (00:00):
[00:00:00] As we enter Quarter

(00:05):
Four, the golden season for retail, we have to understand that heritage
is no shield, Woolworths, Debenhams, even WH Smiths. What's going on? What
has to happen is a reality check for the High Street. September's
the wake-up call and it's disguised as a fresh start. School shoes
are now replacing the sandals. The summer vibes are going away, and

(00:30):
the Quarter Four alarm clock is deafening. Today what I want to
do is unpack why this month is a psychological reset, what the
back-to-uni need tells us about customer behavior and how September forecast Christmas.
We also want to look at why Heritage isn't a ticket to
relevance because recently in the last month we've seen real issues with

(00:55):
Claire's accessories and River Island, and they needed a reality check in
2025 and potentially do so let's first start with the mood check.
I always like to start these with the [00:01:00] consumer mood check
and review some stats. It was reported on BBC breakfast on the
20th of August, that UK inflation is back up to 3.8% and

(01:20):
that is a problem. However, prior to that, consumer confidence was in
fact climbing because the Bank of England had cut base rates. The
GFK index was steady and the savings index was the strongest since
2007, according to the times and the financial times. We've yet to
see the impact of this inflation rise in the reports of that

(01:45):
sort of land in terms of spending, discretionary spending did fall. If
you look at the Barclay card stats, it slipped by 1.8% even
though retail sales bounced in July by 2.5%, and that was partly
due to the Euro's hype and the sunny weather. So what does
this all mean? I think it means that consumers feel safer but

(02:10):
are remaining cautious. Careful spending and value seeking behaviors [00:02:00] dominate, reflecting
back on what we've talked about in previous episodes about value, but
the thing is this inflation number that was reported only a month
ago really does have to kick in and show different facts, and
those facts won't be available to us probably until the end of

(02:35):
September. So we'll have to wait and see. So what would I
say about this in terms of the consumer mood check? I think
you have to make sure that your offers are transparent, attractive, and
built for people who plan how they're spending every pound, bundles, loyalty,
incentives, and messaging that matches sort of the real buying behavior and

(03:00):
how people wanna shop. Today is super important. August and early September.
Insights really do tell us which categories are under pressure, so promotions
can be adjusted accordingly. The other big thing is back to uni,
there's big [00:03:00] baskets and fast decisions apparently, and we've yet to
see the figures as the time of recording. Back to uni spend

(03:25):
should be around 800 million. That's epic. If you are a retailer
that sells anything that a student could possibly want, then you need
to make sure you are on this. It's students and parents prioritizing
utility over fluffiness, good bundles, durable basics, not gimmicks. Also, an interesting
stat is that sub-£500 gadgets. Held their own in demand, high spec

(03:50):
refurbished devices such as an iPhone 12, which arguably is a lesser
model than the prevailing ones currently. But being that they're available for
as low as 14 pounds, make them a really attractive option for
students who want quality and they do want to break the bank.
Also, when you look at things, like the comparison websites, there's very

(04:15):
[00:04:00] little difference really in terms of specification between tech over different
models, unless you are moving two to three years. So actually to
pick up an iPhone twelve, £214 isn't a bad choice for a
student. The other thing that's come out really well is the prevalence
of Click and collect, and I've talked about that before as well.

(04:40):
But if you've got click and collect and you're near campus, that
is an absolute game changer for speed and convenience. Not to forget
that hospitality gets an early September into mid-September influx, thanks to returning
students and their parents wanting to stay over and help the kids
move in. So these are some of the trends, but I couldn't

(05:05):
believe that back to uni is worth 800 million pounds. That just
seems insane. But then again, a lot of kids are making that
choice. There aren't many apprenticeships available. The governments change the rules around
apprenticeships and funding. So perhaps it isn't unexpected that this is a
growing trend and maybe we'll continue to be for the next couple

(05:30):
of [00:05:00] years. We also need to look at what students are
spending. Nat West have got a living index and apparently 64% of
students are working part-time, so Well that makes sense really, doesn't it?
Because. Despite what they might get as a student loan, they're still
juggling work and study and it's limiting their disposable income in general.

(05:55):
So they're making very budget conscious choices and getting the essentials is
their priority. And we'll see discretionary online shopping dropping. Not to say
that there isn't a channel shift as well. Students are using platforms
like Amazon or supermarket, click and collect, and I mean, I can
reflect on my son. He uses Sainsbury's for his, everyday essentials when

(06:20):
it comes to e-commerce and food shopping. And people go, oh, isn't
he really well off then? Well, no, because they've got an LD
price match. And that's the thing. He's maximizing the convenience and the
value and the quality and making the choices to buy from them
rather than having to trek off with a backpack [00:06:00] and carry

(06:45):
all his shopping home. But in terms of what this means for
the retailers, it's about. Quality bundles that represent value because they've got
longevity, not just low price, fast fulfillment. And it's not just about
impulse, it's about making it easy to choose your products. So the
practical advice or takeaways that I can perhaps suggest for this is

(07:10):
you've got to offer the bundles that require a mixture of value
and convenience. So tech and accessories. Pantry and essentials for student flats.,
A herb rock, something like that, or a kitchen set, but that
must last at least a year. It can't be absolute cheap rubbish
that gets thrown away within three months. The other thing is leveraging

(07:35):
click and collect and fast delivery. So either being near campus, offering
e lockers where people can pick up their [00:07:00] goods. And perhaps
partnering with local delivery options will give a competitive edge. It's making
it as simple as possible because there's relatively limited parking outside halls
of residence. I know this from personal experience. You've got about five

(08:00):
minutes to dump your kid in all of their stuff before the
police come and stick a ticket on your car. So you've got
to be able to provide as near as possible access. And then
also it could be about tailoring the messaging to student priorities, affordability,
durability, speed. That's much more important to them than a quick flash

(08:25):
sale or a seasonal gimmick. And I think if your store isn't
on their radar through Amazon style, convenience, and let's, let's all face
it, Amazon do have the edge globally on the word of convenience
because same day, next day delivery. The only other places that can
compete with that is when I talked about it in one of

(08:50):
my earlier podcasts. I need a paddling pool. [00:08:00] The weather's hot
and I want it right now. Other than that, they're probably the
go-to for most people. And if you aren't offering the Amazon style
convenience, people go elsewhere. And whether it's food or tech, they're not
just comparing prices, they're wanting fast delivery, delivery. And uh, that's the

(09:15):
reality today. Linking to the students, we've got the freshers effect. Fresher
week is quite highly volatile, but cafes, pubs and fast casual dining
venues really increase trade in fresher week. And of course, depending on
the university, fresher week, can anywhere, can be anywhere from the early
part of September, right through to the early part of October. Lots

(09:40):
of retailers are running one pound tasters, student promos and so on.
It's all about loyalty hooks and creating longer term attraction. So giving
away now might keep them coming back for their entire [00:09:00] three
or four years of their degree or however long they stay there.
So I wouldn't normally advocate very low price discounts, but for freshest

(10:05):
week for students, I probably would because. Win them over now win
the hearts and minds and you may have a customer for at
least the lifetime that they stay in the city. So my advice
would be get the loyalty early. Use whatever platforms are available. Deliveroo,
just eat whatever or your own loyalty schemes to engage with them

(10:30):
and offer special offers. Use promotions that can turn the short-term spikes
into long-term relationships. Capture their data, get their email addresses, and make
sure you market to them effectively through the lifetime of their period.
In university, they're not gonna leave the town. They may leave the
halls of residence, but they'll go somewhere else and they'll still want

(10:55):
to order a pizza. I now want to reflect on the signals
we've seen from August and early September. [00:10:00] Halloween went on the
shelves quite early, but the basket size wasn't as high as it
has been in the past, and I think that is partly to
do with what we talked about earlier in this episode, which is

(11:20):
consumer confidence and spending power and inflation and so on. But what's
important is traffic has increased. Conversions have lagged. So what can we
do about that? I feel that analyzing your August and September data
for category trends and looking at what stock and promotions need to
be in place by, well, in the next couple of weeks, quite

(11:45):
frankly, before we hit Halloween, is really, really important. And I would
suggest that the trends that we see now are potentially a Quarter
Four blueprint, so we have to preempt the hesitation of consumers with
clear messaging. And help them with frictionless shopping. Make everything as transparent
as possible and give them the confidence to part with [00:11:00] the

(12:10):
cash. Another thing we've seen in the last few weeks is something,
again, of a high street reality check. Heritage is no protection in
modern times. If we all look back to, what, 15 odd years
ago? Maybe more? No, it's more than that actually. Gosh, I'm old.
Woolworths that's gone. Debenhams gone. WH Smiths rebranded. They've been sold to

(12:35):
Modela t and rebranded as TJ Jones, which are kind of, the
people behind Hobby Craft. But obviously W eight Smith does still exist
in the trouble hubs where they make a lot of money. Claire's
accessories fell into administration Hobbycraft, despite the investment in WH Smiths through
their investments. They've shut nine more stores and River Island is downsizing

(13:00):
fast. I mean, these are high street stole walks. So we've got
a bit of a reality check, reality check, and I think the
key messaging behind this is Legacy [00:12:00] alone won't save you relevance
with your customer will. Claire's accessories was selling historically when I was
a kid to an 11-year-old or a 13-year-old. Me now that same

(13:25):
child is seven. And they don't buy online and they haven't got
the flexibility to go out shopping alone. But furthermore, we have to
take into account the fact that Primark is able to sell everything
that Claire's did, along with a nice T-shirt and some funky bedding
and a fluffy key ring. All the, all the nonsense that young

(13:50):
girls wanna buy, quite frankly, so they haven't kept pace with competition.
And I would say River Island probably is also a victim of
Primark because their product is possibly ever so slightly overpriced. So the
customer relevance is constantly a topic. I bring up Debenhams. It was
beginning to look more like lock-ups. You know, I don't say it,

(14:15):
but, uh, somebody [00:13:00] might have popped out and asked where their
cat was. And the fact of the matter is, we've seen it
with House of Fraser. We've seen it with various retailers. They've become
tired and out of date, and no longer appealing to the customer
base who's looking for something very, very different. reinventing the customer experience

(14:40):
and staying compulsively obsessed by what the customer wants is really, really
important in the modern world. Also things like tracking the changing footfall.
Are the locations even viable anymore? Customer behavior that links to the
experience and localized trends. And then pivoting the offer or the messaging
to reflect what shoppers need now, because it's not the same as

(15:05):
it was even probably five minutes ago, let alone five years ago.
So in terms of what retailers need to do, they kind of
need a little bit of a, a toolkit. When it comes to
bundles, that needs to be smart and clear. They need to dig
into the data. What's [00:14:00] changed and what stuck, and how does

(15:30):
that inform the golden quarter, Quarter Four, and be agile? What worked
in last December and November may not work now. So my advice
would be to build flexible operational and promotional plans, preempt sales spikes.
Dips in demands and make sure stock is there to back it
up. And we also need to learn from the past. Woolworths depended

(15:55):
on nostalgia. Debenhams trusted in scale. Smith's replied on Smith's, relied on
their branding, and River Island was all about the trend, but none
of them were adaptable. So it's more about tracking trends, actively adjusting
quickly, and don't assume the past strategies are going to influence the
future. August and September, don't warm you up. It writes your quarter

(16:20):
full script. You've gotta get it right. If you can do an
encore of last year, that's great, but if you [00:15:00] coast, you're
probably gonna burn out. I suggest. Ruthlessly, review what your customer's needs
and wants are and make sure that you are relevant and on
point for the coming season. I'm Claire Bailey, the retail champion, and

(16:45):
you've been listening to Retail Reckoning.
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