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November 26, 2025 15 mins

This fiery bonus episode pulls no punches, cutting through the Autumn Statement spin with outrage and insight.

Hi, I'm Clare Bailey, founder of Retail Champion.

In this one, we head from the unprecedented OBR leak and Kemi Badenoch’s scathing budget roast to a “minimum wage” hike that isn’t what it seems and a bizarre new “milkshake tax” – we’re calling out the nonsense head-on.

We expose how rising business costs are gutting our high streets and question if energy “support” comes with rationing vibes. We even flag the safety risks of the new self-check-in era, and ask who really wins when small shops get a boost at big retailers’ expense.

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:01):
A budget published 35 minutes beforeit was presented, an opposition
leader ripping strips off the PMand the BBC analysis of Key points
before the chancellor even presents.
This is probably the mostdramatic budget day I've ever
I'm Claire Bailey andthis is Retail Reckoning.

(00:23):
And it had been my plan to assessthe budget from a consumer facing
and consumer point of view.
But let me explain firstwhat's just happened.
'cause quite honestly, it was likewatching a real life Netflix drama unfold.
And then I'll dive into the detail itself.

(00:52):
So the OBR Office ofBudgetary Responsibility.
Report was published around 1155and I'd got the panel on BBC two
politics just in the background onmute while I was doing some work.
But then I saw what was cracking upand I was like, oh my goodness me,
they were able to grab and downloadthe report, which is now in full

(01:13):
view on the Telegraphs website, andstart reading out passages live.
And then it turned out that Kemi, theopposition leader, she had it as well.
She totally took the P outof the government for the
chaos around all of this.

(01:57):
Of course, she's aware of the documentsearly publishing, and as I was
watching it, I was just astonishedthat it had been allowed to happen.
the BBC cut away from pqs whereobviously Kemi was ripping a strip
of Stormer and they went back to thepanel on BBC politics who'd had about
20 minutes to skim read the 203 pagesthat were in the budget analysis.

(02:19):
And they were in analysis modebefore it was even presented.
I mean, quite frankly, I think KemChemi could have been a lot more
full on with Starmer over this.
, the panel on BBC two were using wordslike unprecedented and extraordinary.
And it is, it was drama in real life.
I mean, they were disclosing thingslike the cap on child maintenance

(02:41):
being lifted, that mansion tax.
The NI on salary sacrifice,pension contributions, all before
it was ever officially presented.
Anyway, setting aside the relativemadness of today, I've actually planned
to look at this in a more moderate, wayand consider the core parts that affect

(03:01):
consumer facing businesses, so retail,hospitality, leisure, personal care,
visitor economy, and large and small,and also those who spend with them.
So the consumer themselves.
So I'll probably need to draw abreath, recover from this remarkable
episode and crack on with whatI'd planned to chat about today.
So the first thing disclosed thismorning ahead of the actual budget

(03:25):
presentation with the minimum wage rises.
Yet again, it's an impact on thecost of employment, and quite
frankly, it already happened whenit came out of last year's budget.
Impact of cost of employmentsimply leads to things like
reduced hours being offered.
Or prices having to rise to swallowthe cost of serving staff or
staff on the tills and whatnot.

(03:45):
That kind of negates thevalue of minimum wage.
'cause people working on minimumwage often work in retail,
hospitality, leisure type jobs anyway.
So if they get less hours,they've got less spending power.
Alternatively, their wages may have goneup, but if prices go up to absorb the
cost of the wages going up, then theirspending power is actually not changed.
sort of seems like all it's doingis driving inflation or putting

(04:09):
people under greater pressure.
It's also seems to be pushing somebusinesses to consider actually
closing either completely due tothe cost of overheads, overall
making trade non-viable, and alsothe ongoing low confidence in the
consumer economy, or closed partially.
If minimum and living wage aregoing up on top of the 2024 risers

(04:29):
in national insurance and so on,that has already really negatively
impacted the ability of even smallbusinesses to cover staff costs.
Even those who aren't impacted bythe ni, the bigger companies were
definitely impacted by both, despitethe fact they believe people spend
surplus income in the local economy.
I worry that there'll be any surplusif prices go up to absorb the cost

(04:53):
of staffing or if hours are cut.
Now also this morning we heard aboutsugar tax, that's price rises on
milk products as a result of beingclassified within the sugar tax.
I can imagine this is gonna impacton places like cafes and actually
there's been a growing trend to dessertcentric shops and milkshake type shops.

(05:15):
Who offer tweens and teens a place togo that's quite sociable, quite youth
centric, and offers, , that environmentthat's kid friendly and I kind of imagine
it replicates the pub for an underage.
So yeah, milk tax.
Sugar tax, that just seemsa little obscure, but we'll

(05:36):
see how that one pans out.
Then this morning as well, it was,uh, there was a debate going on
in Bradford with BBC breakfastas a bit of an outside broadcast.
They were chatting to all sorts of people,but, , in particular, Kate OLS from UK
Hospitality was on and talking about theimpact on business owners in hospitality.
And there was also a venuecompany there in the past year.
They were declaring, you know, they'dhad lower footfall, fewer customers,

(06:00):
fewer customers spending as much.
And their business was live musicvenues that had helped grassroots
music's providers to reach an audienceand perhaps become the next big thing.
Now that company had had to become aCIC, , a community interest company
and they got everybody workingas volunteers just to keep going.

(06:20):
And the topics that were raised and keepbeing raised were reduce business rates,
reduce that for hospitality and so on.
yeah, we've heard about that andbusiness rates come up in a bit.
The other thing we've seen isthat the mayors are gonna have
the option to impose tourist tax.
Now, a lot of the hospitality owners,and again there was one speaking on

(06:41):
breakfast this morning, think thatthat's gonna hinder occupancy because
it puts up costs for UK families whowant to stay in UK-based accommodation.
it's already quiteexpensive to be in the uk.
The cost of eating out and everythingelse compared to going abroad, even
factoring in flights and accommodation.
will people even want to travel in theuk or are they going to increase their

(07:02):
propensity to go overseas at a lowercost and for more reliable weather?
Let's face it.
The other thing they said was thatto manage the necessary reduction
in staff, they deployed technologylike , self check-ins and so on.
, but then you have to admit thatdoes reduce service and you've got a
question and there's just literallyno one there to ask, what do you do?

(07:24):
So again, it's a deterrent topeople wanting to go to places where
they aren't staff visibly present.
And also there's a safety risk there.
What if you are a single mom travelingwith two young kids, and you go to a
place and there's only self-checkingand a few security cameras?
Would you genuinelyfeel comfortable there?
Versus somewhere which was morevibrant and people around and , you

(07:47):
know, you didn't just feel so remote.
Hospitality are also calling for,, some kind of rates in terms of VA or
VAT relief so that they can pass thereduction in cost onto consumers and
that will enable, , pubs to hopefully.
Get more people sat at tables havinga meal or a drink, and hotels to get

(08:10):
sufficient occupancy to remain viable.
I mean, some of the businesses thismorning were saying they have debts
to their energy suppliers and they'vegot signs up to tell their customers
to switch off the lights and so on.
I mean, that sounds almostlike post-war level.
And during times in theseventies when there was the,

(08:32):
. Rationing of energy and so on.
what we can see is fundamentally the lastbudget has already hurt, and now with the
minimum wage increases that are comingon hard and fast, again, the consumer
confidence where particularly thosewho perhaps had a reasonable disposable
income are now worrying about some ofthe changes to things like savings,

(08:53):
pensions, tax on pensions, and so on.
Business rates impacting.
Employment tax that I think that it'sgoing to create a certain element of
nervousness until the dust settles.
Obviously, we won't see how thispercolates through for a while yet on
doing this, literally minutes after RachelReeves has finished her presentation.

(09:17):
One of the things that UK hospitalitydid say was that hospitality was
disproportionately hit in the lastbudget, and the impact has been,
which is something I predicted,I'm not gonna lie, to lose staff.
, prices are only able to go up asfar as consumers are willing to pay.
And with consumer confidence being low,they can't really put the prices up.
So many locations are actuallyreducing their opening hours, but

(09:39):
that's a double-edged sword as well.
You're paying rent andrates for every hour 24 7.
Of course, just putting the lightson, the heating on, switching on the
ventilation or extraction fans and so onmeans that with low footfall, the cost
of just switching on the basic systemsto welcome customers might be over
and above the profit that they'll makeon the minimum sales they'll achieve.

(10:02):
So yeah, it's a, a really knifeedge situation for certainly pubs,
restaurants, cafes, bars, and so on.
But that's also seen in retail.
in this budget as predicted.
, and I think I wrote a blog and did apodcast on this a little while ago.

(10:22):
She has announced support for Highstreets for smaller businesses and
pubs, and thanks to the lobbying bythe British Retail Consortium and
UK Hospitality, but she's whackingup the rates on the bigger units.
The the ones with over, I think itwas half a million pounds, business
rateable value, and that was anticipated.
But they're really largeunits, generally out of town.

(10:43):
The average one probably has apayroll of several hundred people.
She referred to them as the big sheds.
Now I remember the analysis by theBritish Retail Consortium that said
something like 400 of those, and ofwhich there might be 4,000 in the
whole of the uk, but 400 of those mightbecome non-viable if the bills go up and

(11:04):
might then therefore consider closing.
So if if they employ 500 or so people.
We're talking about thousands of jobsat risk, and that's where they're
putting the business rates up totake from the apparently rich, but
are they to give back to the small.
Now, obviously, the High Street needssupport and rates for the High Street

(11:26):
need to be considered, but not at theloss of rates for the bigger companies.
And I can certainly see that it'spositive for a few, but really worrying
for some of the larger employers.
There was another commentabout half of new jobs being
created by scale up businesses.
So, , they're going to deploy enterpriseincentives to help, , expand growing

(11:49):
companies and to help them withgrowing their brand and their identity.
And that might be something thathelps the brands that perhaps sell to
retail and consumers and high streets.
Or even might help new and interestingconsumer facing service providers
who've come up with a conceptand then want to roll it out.
But it remains to see how that translates.

(12:10):
And there wasn't sufficient detailat this stage to really go into that.
Obviously any enterprise initiativeto help businesses grow is
fantastic, but we need to see howthat translates to the high street.
Another really interesting area wasthat they're devolving significant cash
funds to the seven mayors to investin skills and employability and so on,

(12:30):
and, and particularly the high streets.
Got to mention there.
, we hope that this doesactually hit the high streets.
I'm pretty confident it will in Yorkand North Yorkshire because I met
their mayor at the launch of the YorkBusiness Festival on Monday evening.
Quite interestingly, he has been anindependent menswear retailer in the
center of York and traded for 10 years.
So at least one of the mayors hassome of that local, independent, small

(12:53):
business, , experience and understandsthe consumer economy in his heart.
But he also made me click allbecause he told and Burnham that
he was a better man than him.
There was another comment.
There'll be support for cost oftraining and apprenticeships for
SMEs for those , employees under 25.
In fact, it'll be completely free.
So it's handy potentially to help smallbusinesses bring in new staff on a lower

(13:16):
risk basis, but then again, with therecent changes to minimum wage, it's
no longer as cost effective as it was.
And if a small business has todedicate time to on-the-job training,
it can end up costing them morein their own lost productivity.
Then it actually generatesin the productivity of the
apprentice or the learner.
whilst it sounds good, only businesses ofa certain size and scale are going to be

(13:39):
able to take that opportunity on becauseyou can't have the owner with perhaps the
one part-time assistant manager, one ofthose tied up looking after an apprentice.
When the apprenticeship now costsor the apprenticeship salary
now costs considerably more thanit did a couple of years ago.

(14:01):
My other final points fromwatching this live is you've
gotta love that deputy speaker.
She actually told off one of theconservative mps, she told him to simmer
down and stated she expected more ofhim and she actually wagged her finger.
It was really, really funny.
Honestly, it smacked of a schoolmistress telling off an unruly child.
But in Venice, I, I did think that,you know, whether they agree with her

(14:24):
or not, they should have allowed herto speak and listen with some respect.
I'm not surprised people don't like ortrust politicians when they can't behave
themselves, even in such a seriousand significant parliamentary meeting.
So anyway, to wrap up on that note, thishas been what we've been presented with.
Now, there'll be loads ofanalysis over the next few days.
Gut feel is it's potentially precarious.

(14:47):
There's some good stuff in therepotentially, but you know, we'll
have to see how it washes through.
And as business owners, small businessowners, whether retail, hospitality,
leisure, and, and myself running a smallboutique consultancy, we now need to work
out how to best navigate what's coming,how to manage things like the balance

(15:07):
of staffing costs and all the otheroverheads and our product costs and so on.
good luck for those who've beenkeeping their, , eye on this budget.
And as ever, give me a shout if youwant to, , have a rant about it.
It's certainly somethingthat's got my heckles up today.
This has been Retail Reckoning.
I'm Claire Bailey, the Retail Champion.
Thank you for listening.
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