Manish Singh: How the Market’s Herd Mentality Can Destroy Your Fortune

In this episode of The Blunt Dollar, I sit down with Manish Singh, Chief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital and a veteran global macroeconomist with nearly two decades of experience steering multi-asset portfolios. 

From his engineering roots in Mumbai to building an investment philosophy rooted in patience, trust, and historical perspective, Manish shares how he balances data-driven rigor with deep human insight.

We explore:

✅ The surprising ways an engineering background shapes investment thinking 🛠️

✅ Why history, from the European revolutions of the 1800s to COVID panic, remains a critical guide for modern markets 

✅ How Manish defines real risk (hint: it’s not volatility) and why position sizing is everything 

✅ The psychological traps of herd behaviour, overconfidence, and chasing outcomes

✅ Why falling in love with the process, not the outcome, is the ultimate edge in investing

If you’re into thoughtful discussions on long-term investing, behavioural finance, and how philosophy and history intersect with capital markets, this one’s for you.

Oh, and if you haven't already... subscribe to The Blunt Dollar for more raw and honest finance conversations.

New episodes drop every other week! Available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts.

And last, but not least, don't forget to follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ignacio-ramirez-moreno-cfa/

Enjoy the episode!

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Listeners should consult a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your first degree is a very important degree because
that kind of sets yourdiscipline and gives you ideas
about how you want to work.
So when we say engineering, Ihave found it very useful in my
role as a portfolio manager andCIO, because one thing you can
do in engineering is that youcannot just create hypothetical
scenarios.
I mean, these are based on realnumbers, real outcomes.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Welcome everyone to a new episode of the Blunt Dollar
.
Today's guest is none otherthan Manish Singh, a seasoned
global macro economist,investment strategist and
portfolio manager with over 18years of experience navigating
the complexities of multi-assetinvesting.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
Having a framework of making decisions and a process
that helps you a lot.
To me, engineering backgroundgives me that.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm curious, like going back to your engineering
background, what made you?

Speaker 1 (00:49):
pivot.
So the answer is very simple.

Speaker 2 (01:17):
This is the Blonde Dollar with Ignacio Ramirez.
With Ignacio Ramirez,professional advice Always do
your own research and consult aqualified advisor before making
any financial decisions.
All investments involve risk,including the potential loss of
capital.
And now let's get started withthe episode.

(01:37):
Welcome everyone to a newepisode of the Blunt Dollar.
Today's guest is none other thanManish Singh, a seasoned global
macroeconomist, investmentstrategist and portfolio manager
with over 18 years ofexperience navigating the
complexities of multi-assetinvesting.
Manish currently leadsinvestment efforts at
Crossbridge Capital after acareer that spans UBS,

(01:58):
investment Bank, societe Generaland structured finance roles
across London, hong Kong andIndia.
Along the way, he's crafted areputation for balancing
disciplined portfolioconstruction with an
opportunistic eye for marketdislocations.
He's a CFA charterholder, achemical engineering graduate
from IIT Mumbai, and he holds amaster's in finance from

(02:20):
Cranfield.
He's also a frequent voice inglobal financial media,
regularly featured on Bloomberg,cnbt and ET, now sharing
insights on macroeconomics,geopolitics and capital markets.
In this conversation, we'll diginto how he thinks about
investing, his role as a CIO andhow he structures portfolios to

(02:42):
survive crisis, and why thereal edge in investing might not
be predicting downsides andresistances, but actually
preparing for them.
Manish, I'm absolutely excitedto have you here on the show.
Welcome to the Blonde Dollar.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Thank you, ignacio, thank you very much, and I'm
very happy to be here and have achat with you about everything
that you mentioned just now.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
So let's start with just getting to hear a little
bit about what is it that you'redoing today, what is your role
at Crossbridge Capital and whatare you doing exactly over there
?

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Yeah, so I'm the CIO at Crossbridge Capital, which
means that I have to look atasset allocation, make
investments and, of course, mostimportantly, to drive the
direction of the portfolios howit should be invested.
So, right from asset allocationto trades, I have a small team
that works with me and we arelargely equity investors.
We invest mostly in equity.

(03:36):
We do have some bond positionsand some funds as well, but
largely, I would say, equityinvestor, mostly devoted to
large cap stocks in US andEurope, and our main investment
strategy is on structured notes.
So we take a view that if youtake a medium term approach to
investing on stocks, then youhave a much better chances of

(03:58):
earning your returns than havinga very short term strategy.
So we like to have a verydisciplined medium to long-term
approach on large cap stocks anda very much top-down investing.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
Okay.
So we're going to be talking alot about your role as a CIO.
I have a lot of questions aboutthat, but maybe before we dig
into that, let's take a stepback and walk us through your
journey, because you startedyour career not in finance but
in chemical engineering, and Ithought that was really
interesting about your profile.
It's kind of an unconventionalpath for someone who now manages

(04:33):
complex portfolios acrossdifferent asset classes.
So how do you think yourtraining as an engineer shaped
the way you approach markets anddecision-making today?

Speaker 1 (04:42):
Sure, I mean, I believe that your first degree
is a very important degreebecause that kind of sets your
discipline and gives you ideasabout how you want to work.
So when we say engineering, Ihave found it very useful in my
role as a portfolio manager andCIO, because one thing you can
do in engineering is that youcannot just create hypothetical
scenarios.
I mean these are based on realnumbers, real outcome.

(05:04):
So you get used to having avery data-driven approach to
investing and when you do data,you detach yourself from
emotions because you cannotmanipulate the data, especially
when you're making investmentdecisions based on that, and it
can be very brutal.
So what engineering or sciencebackground gives you?
It gives you a discipline whereyou start understanding that

(05:27):
what has to be done, what arethe inputs and what are going to
be likely outputs.
Now we know investing is notscience, investing is art.
But having a framework ofmaking decisions and a process
that helps you a lot.
To me, engineering backgroundgives me that process that helps
you a lot.
To me, engineering backgroundgives me that.
So when there's a lot of noise,I have my process and I can

(05:48):
stick to my process and rely onthat to help me make investments
.

Speaker 2 (05:51):
I love what you're saying about inputs and outputs.
So when I think about engineers, I automatically think about
systems.
I have the feeling that youguys think about systems all the
time and constraints, feedbackloops and, yeah, the alluded
inputs and outputs and I thinkmarkets.
In their own way, they're agiant messy system, right?
So would you agree, like, doyou see the market as a system

(06:14):
and if so, how does that lenschange the way you interpret
them?

Speaker 1 (06:20):
So I would say that you know so.
My undergrad in engineeringhelps me that.
But what I really learned afterengineering, which is why I'm
on the investment side, is thatyou really have to have a good
knowledge of history.
I mean good knowledge ofhistory and philosophy helps you
a lot Because, ultimately, themarket participants are not
machines Well, lately maybe alot of machines but market

(06:42):
participants are human beings,and which means that they have
their own biases, they havetheir own issues and problems to
deal with.
Think and how they makedecisions becomes extremely
vital.
So it allows you to marry thetwo things you know take the

(07:15):
data, take the process and thenoverlay that with understanding
of human psychology and howpeople make decisions and their
own biases, and that helps yourefine that process and if you
do that for long enough time,you start understanding what
works, what doesn't work.
So to me, that is the processthat I really always like to
champion, and when I'm speakingto my juniors or I'm speaking
anywhere, I like to highlightthat, because that process has

(07:36):
to be driven over time and hasto change over time and adapt
and evolve to a process thatworks.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
You were talking about history.
Do you think there's aparticular period in history
that you found useful to explainwhat is happening in markets
today?

Speaker 1 (07:55):
See, I would say that you know, the big events are
always the main things to lookat.
If you look at.
Yesterday we were having a chaton LinkedIn and I mentioned
that when people are talkingabout 100-year bond they forget
that how much things can changein 100 years.
I mean, look, it has been 80years since World War II and we
talk about 100-year bond.
Look what that period of theworld was and what it is today.

(08:17):
There was 80-year gap betweenthe US Civil War and First World
War and how much America hadchanged.
So sometimes when we say 100years, we don't say that in a
very light way.
Oh, I'm going to buy a 100-yearbond.
But coming back to your questionabout which period of history
informs me, I think the mid-18thcentury in Europe is a very

(08:39):
important part.
So around 1830 to 1860, where alot of things happened like the
whole Europe was in upheaval,you know there was a huge amount
of unsettling and revolutionarything happening everywhere
across Austria, germany, youknow, end of Austro-Hungarian
Empire.
So I think whenever you havebig setups unraveling, that's

(08:59):
when you have the biggest change, because you just do not know
what is going to throw up.
So I tried to read more aroundthat and take things from that.
Now, of course, that's 200years ago, so you have to
understand that not everythingis going to replicate and we
didn't have data, we didn't havecomputer, people didn't have
board.
A lot of things have changedbut you can always draw from
that how human behaviors are.

(09:19):
I would like to say that themarket is full of human
participants.
They have the same issues andsame problems that they had in
the past.
They might dress differently,but they still have the same
thing that they think like andthey like to solve problems with
.
So you can learn from that howhumans behave.
But it is not going to be exactreplication of that, but you

(09:41):
know that the panics and fearsare going to repeat itself.
And just to give you an example, when COVID happened in 2020,
this is in our lifetime, what wetalked about I just saw people
coming into office and thinkingsome saying you know, 100
million people are going to die,20 million people are going to
die.
Me, being an engineer of a massbackground, I said what's the
basis?
That was my question.
So when I looked around, I said, yeah, I can buy this.

(10:02):
No, viruses can do that, andyou had black death and all
these things.
But what's the basis of theseconclusions?
You do not have any evidence.
Science has evolved a lot, alot of things have happened.
So sometimes when you're toomuch only into the history, you
bring the fear part.
But when you go into thepresent and you start
understanding how the world haschanged and what the world is,

(10:23):
then you can dismiss some ofthat Not entirely, but you can
be more prudent.
And I saw that firsthand inCOVID how people were reacting
and that was kind of showingpeople's biases of how they
think and how they think aboutrisk in general.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
Yeah, and I guess it helped you to stay grounded
whilst everyone was panicking,correct?

Speaker 1 (10:41):
Yeah, ignacio, you're absolutely right.
I have a newsletter I wrotearound that time, which is still
on my website, in which Icritiqued some of these models
and the predictions that theywere making, because I looked at

(11:03):
what the same models, or the,and I think that in policy terms
, we are still making a lot ofmistakes where only academic
inputs are being used to makedecisions, when actually you
should have a group where youhave 50% practitioners and 50%
academic or the quant people,but it cannot be 100% quant and
tech.
It cannot be 100% practitioners.

Speaker 2 (11:24):
And why is it not like that?
Why are we not going towardsthat direction where we add more
of the hands-on, on-the-groundperspectives?

Speaker 1 (11:31):
I think it just shows how the mix of let's look at
central banks.
If you look at the US FederalReserve, if you go down on the
website and check people'sbackground and their experiences
, you will see that let's saythere are 10 governors, 12
governors how many of them havereally worked in private sector?
If you go in the currentconstituent, probably there are
two or three who have worked forfour or five years.

(11:52):
Maybe the new Cleveland Fedchair I forget her name.
She has worked longer atGoldman.
So you see that 80%, 95% oftheir time has been spent in
academic bodies PhDs, researchand all which is respectable and
it is a lot of hard work to do.
But then they are regulatingeconomy, which is real, which is
being driven by human beingsand people and various other

(12:12):
things.
And it's my view that over thetime this is a mistake that the
world has made is that it hasgone in completely one direction
.
It has ignored thepractitioners.
So you don't go and talk to aCEO or bring a CEO on that
decision who is running and has200,000 employees globally to
look at and say should they bereally stopping production
because COVID has spread?
I'm just using COVID as anexample, but they're not looking

(12:34):
at a CEO and saying what areyour constraints, how are you
managing?
They don't have a voice.
So you go and get a modelerfrom Imperial, you get, and then
nobody wants to contradictanyone because nobody wants to
take responsibility of somethinggoing wrong.
So by consensus you keepdriving yourself in the wrong
direction for far too long andthat, to me, is a concern

(12:54):
policy-wise that I see incentral banking, in government,
in in various other places wow,I love that.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
Take thanks for for that.
Hopefully we get more into thatdirection and we get more
practitioners in the future.
I think that there has to besome balance.
I agree.
It wouldn't be good either justto have practitioners and no
academic profile, so I thinkthere has to be an in-between
between both extremes.

(13:22):
But so I'm curious, like goingback to your engineering
background, what made you pivot?
Like I'm trying to imagine,manage a young graduate, spend
countless hours sweating to getengineering degrees that are
notoriously they're known forbeing incredibly hard, and

(13:44):
instead of working for I don'tknow like a utility company or
or something that you're like,okay, I'm going into finance now
, um, which was probably verydifferent to what most of your,
your your friends in class woulddo at the time.
What, what, what, what pushedyou to take that decision?

Speaker 1 (13:58):
yeah.
So I went to iit, which is likea premier institute in india,
and if you look at the graduatesfrom there, they are everywhere
in the US running big companies, big banks and other places.
So it's an incredibly difficultuniversity to get in.
So your question is absolutelyright that once I have got into
that university and got the besteducation, why did I choose to
do something differently?
And the answer is very simple.

(14:19):
In the second year of myundergrad I picked up a book on
international finance in thelibrary and I just couldn't put
it down.
For me it was like the completechange moment that I wanted to
be more, as I said, on thebusiness side, understand how
the world works and how thingswork.
And this was so I did myundergrad from 96 to 2000.
So when I was graduating, thatwas the dot-com time, 99, 2000.

(14:40):
I remember picking up financialpaper in India reading a
headline of one of the analystsjust trashing down Amazon and
saying that this company willnever make money.
This company is going to gobankrupt.
Look where Amazon is today.
Now, of course, I was not afinancial graduate then to
comprehend everything, but to me, the excitement of really being
at the forefront at theforefront I literally mean

(15:03):
forefront of knowledge, knowingexactly what is happening.
That, to me, is the mostexciting part.
So when I come into office andI see that, oh, china is about
to have a chat with the US, youstart drawing conclusions.
So when I say that I don't usea lot of my model and even
though I did engineering andmaths, I don't use a lot of
model and quant.
I like to see signals I seemyself as somebody who's trying

(15:25):
to complete a picture and I'mtaking signals from everywhere.
So when I started, I readInternational Economics book and
I just couldn't put it down andwe didn't have enough electives
in finance, unlike the USuniversities or Europe where you
could change your major.
It was chemical engineeringthat I had to do, but I made up
my mind that I will do and endup doing investment management

(15:46):
or whatever it may be.
At that time it was calledfinance.
When I graduated and this wasin 2000, you didn't have
international banks coming intoIndia to recruit, and now they
go and recruit graduates fromthese universities and they have
been doing it for the last 10,15 years.
Then I had to do a master'sbecause we didn't have I mean at

(16:08):
that time in India, when yousaid a finance or banking job,
you meant somebody who is a bankteller or something a retail
bank and that is not my idea ofinvestment or finance.
My idea was to make investments.
And one of the earlier bookearliest book I read on that was
also Barbarians at the Gate byHenry Kravis.
And I should mention that I metMr Kravis in New York in
September when I was there.
He's a great man, great man andwhile I don't count him as my

(16:28):
mentor, but I've met him acouple of times and we get on
well.
So for me it was like acompletion of a full circle of
coming in and looking at peoplethat you idolize and you meet
and find out how they havedeveloped their career and what
they have done.
So for me the human part hasalways been the most exciting
part.
So when I see people are makingclaims about dollar destruction

(16:49):
, us, I try to not see just as atrade.
I see whether this can happenand what this means for people
and other things.
So I always try to tone downthe quant part and other part
and bring in the real part interms of how the world works.
One thing I remember growing upas a child.
I would think about that.
The world has a framework andit works in framework and people

(17:10):
are making decisions based onframework.
There is no framework.
It has been driven byindividuals, which is exactly
why you have success or failure,because if you get a wrong
leader, you just go down thewrong direction.
If you get told things whichyou strongly believe without
checking any evidence, you getmisled.
So to me that has been like abig learning.
So these are the frameworks Ilook at.

(17:32):
Everything is very real.
It has been driven by people.
Leader A portfolio manager cando a good job, bad job.
It's not the bank.
It's not the bank you work for.
That gives you return.
It's that portfolio manager andthat asset manager gives you
return.
It's the president who makesthe policies.
Prime minister make thepolicies, not the country, not
the society.
So I that was to me was a bigthing that I have developed over

(17:52):
the last 10 years that it'sbeen driven by individuals.
I either you will have successor big failures.
If you don't understandindividual and what they are
doing and there's nothing to sayus will be great forever, or
japan will be, or china will be,because it's been driven by
individuals who betterunderstand society, cultures,
how they work and what'shappening in that society which
is changing.

Speaker 2 (18:13):
Very comprehensive answer over there.
Before my next question, canyou step a couple of centimeters
back, because sometimes you'releaning to the front and your
face is getting caught on thetop.
I'll cut this afterwards, don'tworry.
So you've also worked acrossdifferent geographies.
You worked in India, in London,in Hong Kong so different major

(18:36):
financial hubs, but each ofthem has very different cultures
and rhythms.
What did you learn from workingin such different markets and
cultures?
So I would say that my majorinstinct was in London.

Speaker 1 (18:45):
So when I was in India, I was not doing finance
rhythms.
What did you learn from workingin such different markets and
cultures?
So I would say that my majorinstinct was in London.
So when I was in India, I wasnot doing finance In Hong Kong,
I was at UBS and I was there forthree months.
And I have been traveling toFrance a lot because when you're
in Europe, my first job was inequity research analyst and at
that time I went all acrossEurope selling my strategy piece
or research piece to all theasset managers.

(19:06):
So, yes, that has been a big,big experience in itself.
And what I really found, I findthis about London as a city.
London is a unique city in thesense that you find so many
people from so many places whocome here.
I have this joke with myfriends in India.
I say that you know for youguys, when you have to meet
someone, you take a flight, Itake a cab, because that's how

(19:28):
long it takes me to meet someoneimportant, international or in
my line of business or anythingand that just allows you.
That just allows you to not justnetwork, because network is one
part of it, but second part isreally meet people, like-minded
people, people who you want tomeet and have a discussion with

(19:51):
at a short notice.
Now, a good understanding ofculture is important and that
allows you to basically crossthose cultural barriers and
interpret what a yes means, whata no means.
You know what a maybe means.
So that becomes reallyimportant because people are
generally polite.
I need to understand whensomebody is being polite, or
somebody means yes, or somebodyreally is going to make the
investment, or, on therelationship management side,
somebody will become a client,not become a client.
So I think knowing these thingsare very important because by

(20:13):
that you can tune how you'respending your time and effort in
developing something.
If somebody doesn't want acertain style of investment, you
need to understand that ratherthan respond to it down the line
after one year.
So I think that has beenimmensely helpful because
ultimately we are in markets andwe deal with people, not
machines.
We deal with people.

(20:33):
So the more people you meetfrom different culture, the more
you understand.
In fact, if you look at theresearch analysts, they're right
things right.
If you understand that, whattheir cultural barriers are
where they come from, youintegrate things differently
than somebody just saying whatthe piece is talking about.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
I love everything you're saying.
I couldn't agree more withLondon, by the way.
It's such a cool city.
You have everything at yourdisposal.
Every time I go over there fromSwitzerland I'm like, oh my God
, there's so many people.
This is a very big city.
So you're planning to staythere for the foreseeable future
, I guess?

Speaker 1 (21:08):
Yeah, I have a five-year-old and eight-year-old
, and so I think we are going tobe staying.
We call London our home, so I'mnot averse to traveling, but
this is our home, yes.

Speaker 2 (21:17):
You look very fresh for having two kids at home.
How do you do?

Speaker 1 (21:20):
it Well.
I mean, I have to give creditto my wife.
She's great at looking afterchildren as well, and we have
some help from my in-laws, soyou always have to be grateful
to have good in-laws.
You know, spend time with thechildren and take some of the
pressure off you, absolutely.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
So let's talk about your role as a CIO now, now that
we covered your early stages.
Being a chief investmentofficer obviously is not only
about setting strategies, butit's about making the final
calls, especially in hardmoments like the ones we
discussed, when uncertainty ishigh, when everyone is panicking
and when the stakes are real.

(21:55):
What was the biggest adjustmentyou had to make when you
stepped into the CIO role andsuddenly all these ultimate
responsibilities started to landon your desk?
Hey there, quick favor to askIf you enjoy the blunt dollar,
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The easiest way to support theshow is by tapping that

(22:18):
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Thanks so much for being hereand let's keep these great
finance conversations going.

Speaker 1 (22:39):
So, see, I would say, first thing I would say is that
you know you have to have aprocess.
So the more developed yourprocess are, the more
comfortable you will be atlooking.
And the second thing is thatyou have to learn to say no and
I don't mean saying no to people, but saying no to data, no to
analysis, no to emails, no to alot of research, things being
thrown at you.

(22:59):
I think that you also have tosay no to a lot of these things.
So those are the big changes Iwould say.
So.
I was an analyst once, so Irespect analysts, the times they
devote and things they write.
But I also know that with timeand the longer you're in the
business, you know that you haveset up your own process and you
need to follow that.
So I do a lot of researchmyself.
I like to listen to a centralbanker when they're speaking,

(23:24):
because I value body language alot.
You can look at a person's bodylanguage and see whether they
are saying that thing withconviction or are they going to
flip.
So when you listen to thepolicymakers, to the key
decision makers, to the CEOs,and listen to the interview in
person rather thaninterpretation of that in a
financial media or an analystreport, then I think it's a very

(23:44):
different thing, but where Ithink research also becomes very
handy.
You're not going to keepcreating your own Excel model,
putting up data from quarterlyreports.
So it's very valuable.
But I think the key thing as aCIO or any senior investment
professional is that majority ofthe work you have to still do
yourself.
Don't think of yourself as amanager.
I don't like this whole managerthing.

(24:06):
You should be.
It's a bit like you know whenyou go to a calculator, you know
you should be able to do themaths using a pencil, paper and
pencil and razor.
I think that that's very vital.
So you don't give up what youwere doing.
It's just that you adapt yourprocess.
You are still looking at allthe data, following up
everything.
Your decision-making hasimproved.
You look at this thing andthink 80% is noise.

(24:28):
Earlier, probably, you thought80% was information.
Now you see 80% is noise.
So those are the big changesthat happens over time and I
think you need that because youwill have a lot of people asking
a lot of things to be done alot of things to be traded, lot
of things to be traded, and youdon't have trade everything.

Speaker 2 (24:48):
So, talking about noise, I want to ask you about
building conviction, becauseobviously you know you have to
take decisions that rarely comewith with perfect information
and you have to build conviction.
Right, it's not somethingyou're given, you have to go to
construct it, so to build itexactly.
So how do you personally buildthis conviction in a world where
data is very often so messy andthe future is so uncertain?

Speaker 1 (25:09):
So let's look at asset class.
That's one reason why I'm notdoing a lot of other asset
classes.
So I concentrate on what I cando and what my bandwidth allows
me to do.
So, even though I do mostlyequity, I follow all the macro
data.
You cannot be an equityportfolio manager and not
understand rates and fixedincome and everything else
converted.
That's going on becauseeverything these days,

(25:30):
particularly everything is macro, as you have seen how things
are trading.
So you have to have thatbandwidth.
But then choose what you wantto do and what you can do in the
time that is given to you, thatis allowed to you.
So I'm not going to sit thereand manage duration risk myself
and start hedging.
That's another job to do.
So we might be using a hedgedbond or a hedge fund to use that

(25:51):
.
But things that I'm looking todo equity, which is what our
main strategy is that I would domyself In that.
How do you build conviction?
You build conviction over time,based on evidence.
That's number one.
So there's no shortcut to beinga good investment manager.
You have to do the time and youhave to take the feedback and
learn from it and develop.
So that's the main thing Iwould say Also, when I look at

(26:13):
large cap stocks, I narrowmyself to a few names that I
have followed for a long time,which I continue to follow and
where I know the data a lot andI can just look at quarterly
report and make my decisionsbased on that.
And the most important thingfor me when it comes to
investment is what is your timeduration?
Time duration to me drives alot of return.

Speaker 2 (26:34):
What do you mean by?

Speaker 1 (26:34):
time duration yeah, let me describe what it is right
.
So I always look at everythingthat when I'm putting a trade on
, I like to see that my thistrade I could hold on for two to
five years.
I'm not looking at doing it,which is where the leverage part
comes in that I don't like touse.
I don't like to use leverage.
So when I put a trade on, Idon't take a one month or two
month view on anything.

(26:55):
I like to say that is thisgoing to be a good trade for me
if I were to hold this for 12 or18 months?
So if I come with the view thatrecession is happening in two
months' time, I'm not long themarket.
I'm not waiting for one weekbefore the recession starts to
do anything.
So my thinking process is morelike I'm looking at medium term

(27:18):
and the reason I use duration,as I mentioned, is that when I
construct a trade and this iswhat I do on busks of stocks or
indices what I like to do isthat I don't know what's going
to happen over the next four orfive years.
I still don't know what's goingto happen over the next four to
five years.
So the reason I give myself.
A duration is that, shouldsomething go wrong over the next

(27:38):
12 months, 18 months or twoyears, how am I going to come
out of that and how am I goingto come out of that and how am I
going to come out with keepingmy capital intact?
So by that I give myself aduration.
So when I create a structurednote, a bond, I take a five-year
duration.
The idea is not to hold thatfor five years.
The idea is to give me thatsafety net for five years so I
can still make my capital backand a return back.

(27:59):
But that trade could get over insix months' time, 18 months'
time, two months' time.
But I'm not putting a one-yeartrade, six months' trade.
Those are very short-term tradebecause you define maturity
Okay, this has to happen in sixmonths' time where I have no
certainty whether it's going tohappen or not.
So I like to have duration tomanage risk and the certainty
comes from choosing the stocksthat you know and overlaying the

(28:21):
macro view is the equity goingto go higher and how things are
going to perform?

Speaker 2 (28:26):
So, wow, that's a very, very comprehensive answer.
Once again, thanks for all thatcolor.
I'm sure our listeners aregoing to really appreciate all
those insights coming from aCIO's brain.
You've touched upon manydifferent things, but something
I'd like to come back to isframeworks and actually the role

(28:49):
of philosophy and theinfluences it has on your role
as a CIO.
We touched very briefly history, but you also said that you're
looking at philosophy very, veryclosely as a tool to understand
markets and to avoid beingtossed around by headlines and
fear and things like that.
So what core investmentphilosophy or framework from

(29:14):
philosophy helps you wheneverything feels a little bit
unstable?
Sure?

Speaker 1 (29:19):
I'll give you an example, an incident from my
childhood.
So my mom, who I just love andrespect so much and she has
shaped so much of my thinking,when I was a kid or a student,
she would always tell me that oh, manish, you have exam tomorrow
, why are you not reading?
And the night before I wouldnever read because I would have
done my reading before and shewould still not believe me.

(29:41):
She would say no, but you havean exam, you should read
tomorrow.
I said, no, mommy, I don't havean exam, but I finished my
reading and I would read mynewspaper at that time.
And then she would say I'mgoing to put all this newspaper
away for you for two weeks ofyour exam and you can read it
after two weeks of my exam.
So she just couldn't trust andbelieve that I have done my work
.
So that is a very strongphilosophy in me that a lot of

(30:03):
people will not trust andbelieve what you say.
But that doesn't mean you givethat up.
You still have to use thatphilosophy to do your homework,
not to justify to anyone, not toshow to anyone that you have
done your work.
But you're doing that workbecause you do it for yourself.
You're not doing it to showyour mom or show anyone mom.
Not doing it to show your momor show anyone mom in my case,
but not to show anyone, becausea lot of people are not going to

(30:25):
just trust you implicitly.
But when you give them evidence, when you give them example,
when you give them that this iswhat has happened, then they
understand and they trust.
So that is something that trusthas to be built.
You can't buy it immediately,you can't get it immediately.
And with that, my secondphilosophy, which is very
important patience.
Patience is extremely important.

(30:45):
I want to run this as anindependent fund and raise money
on that, and I could do allthat, but I still have to be
patient, because if I get thewrong investor, wrong initial
investors, to work on that, whodo not understand how these
investments work, then itdoesn't work.
So one thing I am always I'mnever in a rush.
I'm never in a hurry.
I am very confident about what Ido because I build that as a

(31:08):
process and I have the patienceto develop that, because that
gives you a satisfaction that iscoming from within, not from
outside.
When you're seekingsatisfaction and approval from
outside.
You make mistakes, you rush,you do a lot of things that you
shouldn't do and that doesn'tallow you success.
And the same thing happens onstock picking and trade.
People ask you to sell, marketis selling, but you're not

(31:30):
listening to things that youhave developed which is
evidence-based over time, andyou should listen to that Not
just listen but hone and developit, because it doesn't mean
you'll be right all the time,but you learn from things and
make the process better.
So to me, patience and trust Imean these are the philosophies
that I follow a lot.
I don't expect anyone to trustme, so I do my own homework, but
I know that with evidence,people trust you and then they

(31:52):
trust you like nothing and theywill always trust you because
you develop that and that's myphilosophy, how I look at
investment and life.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
So so you were talking about mistakes, because
even like being patient andtrusting yourself and so on,
like even the best investors,make mistakes.
So how do you personallyprocess mistakes or wrong calls
and what's your approach tolearn without losing confidence?

Speaker 1 (32:17):
Sure.
So one thing I always say isthat, again, understand the
market structure.
You will the sizing your trade.
So the size of your trade inyour portfolio is very important
.
Even if you have the highestconviction on a trade, you
cannot supersize that tradebecause that can really destroy
the whole portfolio.
Right, you could havecompletely the returns, can

(32:40):
completely go everywhere and youcould lose your money.
So the size of your trade andsizing of your trade is very
important.
So that's one way of how youmanage risk.
Now, as far as how do you learnfrom your mistake, which is,
again, very vital, the only wayyou can learn from your mistake
is to acknowledge.
Number one.
Number one acknowledge that youmade a mistake and don't blame

(33:02):
it on someone else.
So take responsibility.
I think, take fullresponsibility.
Even if somebody else in theteam didn't look, it doesn't
matter.
You are the head of the team.
You have to take responsibility, you have to take ownership.
I think that's the first stagethat you can do.
Of course, that could havehappened because of market move.
Let's say you have an oil trade, oil trade goes negative

(33:22):
because the market move.
Let's say, uh, you have an oiltrade, oil trade goes negative.
You know oil cannot be negative, but it happened.
It happened four years ago andif you have an oil trade and oil
not over there, the losses aregoing to happen.
Now you can't blame that onanyone.
You know that market structure.
So there are things that aregoing to happen in the market.
First, it always is to takeresponsibility from that.
Keep your trading sizes or yourI don't like to use the word

(33:45):
diversification, becausesometimes you can diversify
returns away not just risk, butin terms of sizing of your
portfolio.
Don't get super confident thatsomething is the best trade and
you're just going to make moneyon that.
So again, those arepsychological.
So even when I feel confidentabout something, I always have
to bear in mind thatoverconfidence and and having

(34:05):
big size on a trade can reallybe very damaging.
So you learn from that.
But these are natural ways ofhow you can balance the risk in
your portfolios and which issomething I would do regardless,
because it's just gooddiscipline in my opinion.
So you have a process but youhave to have a good discipline
which takes care of these othermoves that can happen in the
market.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
So you've mentioned balancing risk several times
there I'm curious to hear, as aCIO, how do you find risk,
especially in the context of arelatively long-term investor as
you?

Speaker 1 (34:36):
are Sure.
So my absolutely good question,ignacio, because what happens
is that when I'm looking at risk, I'm looking at permanent loss
of capital.
To me, risk is permanent lossof capital.
I'm not as much worried aboutmark to market because the
assets that I'm holding arelarge cap assets.

(34:57):
I am taking a bankruptcy riskon that, that stocks can go to
zero, which I'm happy to take onlarge cap names of names that I
have followed, names that haveexisted for a long time.
You see quarterly earnings andall.
So to me, loss is defined aspermanent loss of capital.
The second it's very natural tobe bearish.

(35:18):
95% of commentary and peoplearound you are bearish all the
time on media and everywhere.
You know why?
Because there is a greatasymmetry.
When these bearish people arewrong, you don't feel unnerved
because they have been wrong andthe market has gone up, so feel
a joy and happiness.
So you forget about the bears.
And when the bears are rightand market has gone down, you

(35:41):
say, oh my God, we lost somemoney.
So you start giving credit tothe bears are right and market
has gone down, they say, oh myGod, we lost some money, so you
start giving credit to the bears.
So there's a natural asymmetrythat you will always be
surrounded bearish community andbearish commentary because that
sells, that sells, and whenthey're wrong, nobody talks to
them, nobody bothers, becauseeveryone is happy making money
in the stock market.
So you will always besurrounded by bearish commentary

(36:01):
.
This is another very importantthing to bear in mind.
If I have five, 10 trades,let's say, and I put $1 on each
10 trade, and if I lost on five,the maximum you can lose if
you're not using leverage it's$5.
Of the five trade, if one ofthem goes up three times some
goes five times, six times Ihave more than made up for my
losses.
People forget that the maximumyou can lose on anything is 100,

(36:25):
but there's no cap to what youcan make on the upside.
So if you bear this in mind,then you will suddenly realize
that your positives far outweighsome of the negatives that you
may have had in your portfolio,so long as you haven't put like
two stocks in your portfolio andone is 50, and then that's a
different scenario.
So having that discipline andunderstanding that the maximum

(36:46):
capital you can lose on a nameis that capital, while on the
others you can go many timesover, that allows you to keep
that in the focus when thingsare going haywire.
I don't like to use leverage,because leverage is where things
go wrong If you use leverageand your trading position is cut
, because leverage is wherethings go wrong If you use
leverage and your tradingposition is cut.

(37:07):
Take an example what happenedthree, four years ago?
In 2021, when you had thesemiconductor stocks going
through the roof, and then 2022,you had NASDAQ down 33%.
All the semiconductor chips gotcut into half 50, 60% down.
What happened If you had aprocess where you didn't have
the mark-to-market scenario todeal with which I didn't have
because I had a five-year notestructure and there was no
scenario I held that notethrough?

(37:27):
If you are a single-line equityholder sitting there, stock is
down 20%, stock is down 30%.
How long do you hold on to yourthesis?
Because you are making a lot ofdecisions every day.
I don't like to make a lot ofdecisions every day For me, I
would like to read, I like toread and I like to look at the
data, but I don't have to maketrading decisions every day and

(37:48):
to me, my strategy allows me toget rid of all these numerous
decisions that a lot of peoplemake every day, and when you do
that, you end up making wrongdecisions and that starts
hurting you on the portfolioside.
So over time I have realizedthat the fewer decisions you
make, the better you do.
But how to make money if themarket was completely flat over

(38:10):
five years, because you couldhave a long-term horizon?
But market does nothing, how doyou make money?
And that's when the carry comesin.
So you have to create structurethat pays you for holding those
things.
So in my case, when I create astructured note, I am selling an
option and that allows me tomake this carry per annum and
that allows me to make returnseven if the market is flat.

(38:31):
And by choosing a deepprotection barrier, I'm taking
that safety that I don't have toworry about if the stock is
down from the time I've launchedit in two months, three months.
Some of these are verytechnical, but I think that
carry structures allows you tobenefit from protection.
I like to say what I do is theprivate equity equivalent of a

(38:53):
listed market, because inprivate equity you take
long-term structures andtherefore you allow the assets
to perform.
In my case, I use long-termstructure to make the equities
perform, but, unlike privateequity where you're logged in
for 10 years, you're not loggedin in what I do because ours is
liquid.
You can have daily liquidity.
So but it's the same mentalitythat you have to choose an asset

(39:15):
and give it time to perform,because the dividends build up,
the buybacks build up, theearnings build up and that
allows you.
But if you start judgingeverything based on quarterly
earnings and not based on whatthe business does, then you have
a problem.
When somebody asked me how doyou make investment, I said that
I'm not like a value or growthguy, because I think that growth

(39:38):
becomes value down the line.
I mean, if you look at 1920s,the railroad companies were the
growth companies.
They became value companiesdown the line.
I mean, if you look at 1920s,the railroad companies were the
growth companies.
Then they became valuecompanies down the line.
Telecom companies were growthcompanies.
They became value companiesdown the line.
So everything become growth andvalue and things get money.
As long as you're not managing avalue-only portfolio,
growth-only portfolio, you havethe liberty and freedom, like I

(39:58):
have, to invest in things that Ibelieve in.
I just look around you and seewhat people are using.
What does the world need?
How long do they need it forwhat is going to happen?
And just buy those things,companies that are making those
things or they are in thatbusiness, and that's how, in my
opinion, investment should bedriven, because that's what the
world is using.
So I always like to say lookaround you, travel, look around

(40:22):
you and see what people want,what companies are making it,
and you need only a handful ofcompanies to build a portfolio.
You look at people like BillAckman who have built a $20
billion business on 20 names.
You know like what they havedone.
So I think diversification isgood, but if you don't know what
you are diversifying into, youcould actually be adding risk to
your portfolio.
If you know what you hold inyour portfolio, you could be

(40:45):
adding returns to it.

Speaker 2 (40:50):
So talking about, like, giving time to perform
that you were talking about, Ithink and coming back also to
the human side of investingmaybe.
I think, particularly forlong-term investors, you need a
strange mix sometimes betweenhumility to venture into the
unknown and confidence in yourprocess, as you said before.
I want to hear how do youpersonally balance, as a CIO,

(41:14):
these two things humility andconfidence, especially when
things are not going your way?
Hey there, quick ad break.
Do you work in the financeindustry and have a genuinely
interesting story to share?
I'm always on the hunt forgreat guests who bring raw,
unfiltered insights to the table.
Or maybe you know someone witha story worth telling.
Please put us in touch.

(41:35):
You can reach out to medirectly via LinkedIn.
I'd love to hear from you.
And now back to the show yeah.

Speaker 1 (41:47):
So what I would, what I would say?
You know that what reallybothers me, if, if it was to
happen in a negative way, I will.
I always look at this that thisis the world we live in, what
is this world and how?
I mean, I am not trying to findthe end of this world, but what
I really believe in is that, aslong as the humanity is

(42:09):
surviving and nothing ishappening to humanity, a lot of
things that we have done willcontinue to happen.
So, where I would really getbearish and you will not see me
bearish most of the time in mycomments is that if somebody
wants to tell me that thepopulation is going to decrease
by 20%, 30% or something isgoing to happen to me, that is
an extremely bearish signal.

(42:30):
It is bearish and I would.
I would redefine it.
I would say it's an extremelydeflationary signal because the
consumption goes down.
You know your asset pricesvalue cannot hold up because
there is no replacement value.
You know liquidity, which isthe other thing we should talk
about.
Liquidity is the biggest driverof asset prices.
The reason here I'm sitting inMayfair and I live in Chelsea

(42:53):
and the property prices continueto hold whereas the rest of the
UK doesn't hold, is becausepeople want that asset.
Same thing happens to stock.
So, yes, the world can fallapart, but there are a few
stocks.
People want that, they continueto want and they will continue,
and that's what one has tofigure out.
So my humility comes fromspending a lot of time figuring
it out what things are and nothaving too many holdings in my

(43:17):
portfolio.
If you have too many holdingsin your portfolio, you just
cannot do justice.
It's like you cannot have.
You cannot say I have 10 bestfriends.
Nobody can have 10 best friends.
Life doesn't work like that.
You have to have two or threewho you spend time with.
You cannot have 20 best stocksin your portfolio.
It doesn't work like that.
So it's the same thing.
I apply to what you apply tolife, that if you don't spend

(43:39):
time with someone, they're notyour friend and you can't
develop that relationship.
Same thing with your stock Ifyou have too many stocks in your
portfolio and you pick up thenext big thing, and next big
thing, that's just trading.
That's not investing.
And I have respect for peoplewho trade, but I call myself an
investor.
I believe in investing and nottrading.
So when you do trading, you'realways panicking because you're

(44:00):
using leverage, short-termsignal.
I need to clip this coupon, Ineed to make this 2%.
I just completely stay awayfrom that Because, to me, if you
can get 10 to 11% per annumover time, you're beating
everyone, most of the people inthis market, even the ones who
are doing 10, 20%, and they'reusing leverage, which means that
you are exposed to those risks.

(44:21):
So to me, these are coredisciplines that I always follow
.
I share with my team, I sharewith clients, other people, I
say life can be very simple,investing can be very simple, so
don't complicate it.
But at the same time, have thehumility that I can't predict
recession, I can't predict COVID, I can't predict some of these
things.
So I need to have duration onmy trades, for the trades to
perform, should I get caught inthat.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
You talked about something that I'm very
passionate about, which isliquidity.
I'm a fixed income advisor, soobviously, obviously, it's a
topic very close to my heart.
I think it's one of thosethings that are obviously often
ignored during bull markets, butduring crisis times, it's
everything that everyone talksabout, so can we spend a little
bit of time talking about it?
How do you think aboutliquidity, especially as part of

(45:06):
crisis preparation?

Speaker 1 (45:08):
So I value that a lot because I think if you ignore
that.
So I would say let's put it twoways If you believe in your
stock and you know that thatstock does not have high
liquidity, then you have toprepare yourself for
mark-to-market bigmark-to-market.
That doesn't mean your thesisis wrong, but you prepare

(45:29):
yourself that you know, oh,those things can be down by
20-25% because people areselling it off and this is what
happens to, let's say, mid-capstock or some other stock.
I don't know mid-cap andsmall-cap for this reason,
because I think there are otherrisks that comes into it.
But even if you're doinglarge-cap stocks or, let's say,
you're doing bond or any otherasset class investment trust

(45:49):
Look at investment trust listedon the UK stock exchanges A lot
of them are trading at bigdiscount net asset value because
investors are not taking timeto understand what's inside
these things.
So it can work two ways.
If you're holding it, it canwork against you because you get
mark to market.
But if you're not holding ityou want to add to it it works
in your favor because you canbuy something which is

(46:10):
discounted market doesn't value.
Then you give it the time toperform and the price comes back
and you make your return.
So I think liquidity can hurtyou and help you so long as you
know what you're holding and howmuch that liquidity is working
for you.
So when it works for you youcan have assets trading way
above your net asset value.
I mean, let's talk in terms of P, you can go to 100 PE.

(46:32):
I mean it's just down toliquidity.
Not because standing ofliquidity is extremely important
, because you can then bear somelosses and give yourself time
and other times you can sellbecause you've seen too much of
froth and liquid in that market.
You need to get out toreposition yourself if you do
such trades, and that can becomevery handy.
If you do such trades and thatcan become very handy.
And you know, in bonds, youknow if you get into a liquid
bond you can't get out of it oryou can buy something at

(46:54):
discount and you can make morethan three, four, five points on
it.
So I think that thoseunderstanding are very vital.

Speaker 2 (47:01):
I'd like to ask you also about crisis.
Maybe can you share a crisismoment that sticks with you.
Like you obviously alreadymentioned COVID, do you have
other stories or anecdotes thatreally helped you change the way
you think today about managingmoney?

Speaker 1 (47:19):
Sure, I think not directly about managing money,
but let me relate when I was atSogjin in 2008,.
You know when the crisis washappening in the market.
I remember the day thatBaystons went under.
Then you come back and, oh,morgan Stanley is going under,
Goldman could go under.
I mean, like you know, theseare things you know you're not

(47:41):
prepared for when you look atright.
So you always come backthinking, oh, my God, what is
going to happen to this?
And I was like my mid or late20s at that time.
You're thinking about, oh, whatcan happen.
You come back and my wife shewas in banking as well then and
you come back and say, what ishappening to this world?
I mean, are these banks goingto exist?
Not exist?
And then a month later youthink, oh, you're still there,

(48:05):
you have a job and you're doingwell.
Once you've seen a crisis, whicheveryone defined as everything
is going to end and it doesn'thappen and you live through it,
it gives you a huge amount ofconfidence.
So crisis is why are people whohave been, let's say, have gone
bankrupt a couple of times arethe most confident successful

(48:26):
people?
Because once you lose that fearof losing things, once you have
seen that and you've survivedthat.
You have confidence like noother.
A lot of the time you stopyourself not just you and me I'm
talking in that context, but alot of time people stop
themselves from doing things.
People stop themselves.

(48:46):
Nobody stops them.
They stop themselves because ofthis fear that is lingering in
the head all the time.
So I always say that this iswhere it comes back to history
as well.
When you read history and whenyou see countries going down,
other societies coming up,families going down, families
coming up, banks going bankruptor businesses going bankrupt, it
just tells you that it justcontinues.

(49:08):
I mean, I would say becauseI've done physics as well, so I
always try to see that what ishappening is that you know it
changes from one form to theother, as they say, because
energy can't be created.
It just changes from one formto the other.
So you know that if somethingis getting destroyed, something
else is getting created.
You just need to look atdifferent places to see where
this thing is getting created.

(49:29):
So I would say crisis and fearshould not be used as a way to
take your confidence away.
Actually, you should learn fromit.
You should really understandwhat that crisis is about, see
who were the losers, who werethe winners, and learn from
history that there are losersand winners all the time.
Like stocks in your portfolio,like society.

Speaker 2 (49:47):
So I feel like we're turning around a big topic since
the beginning of theconversation, that is,
behavioral finance.
We haven't addressed itdirectly, but obviously you've
watched markets for almost twodecades so you've seen that a
lot of times markets don't movebecause of data, but really the
behaviors of investors and howthey feel about that data

(50:08):
actually.
So I'm curious to hear what aresome of the most consistent
behavioral mistakes that you'veseen invest investors make over
the years, even even the thesmart, professional fund
managers yeah, I mean it's, it'sspot on, ignacio.

Speaker 1 (50:26):
You know that we have .
We have seen so many storiesabout even the biggest investors
losing big.
So, yes, I think that even biginvestors make the mistakes.
Uh, to answer your question, Imean, what?
What?
How can we learn from thesethings?
Or you know where, where?
How do you avoid some of someof these things?
The short answer is thatsometimes you can't avoid, I

(50:49):
think, think I mean I'll bebrutally honest.
I think there will always besomething that you could get
wrong, even with your best ofunderstanding, and therefore I
keep talking about that.
You have to be so careful aboutsize and so careful about what
durations you're putting on,because you almost say that,
well, I have looked ateverything, but there's still

(51:11):
something unknown which mightcome, come from somewhere, and I
have to be humble enough tounderstand that that may happen.
But that doesn't mean it justchanges me as a person.
It's one of those things thatthat is going to make me wiser.
It just makes me a betterinvestor and, trust me, if
somebody came and told me I havenever lost money, I would not
give them single penny to manageme.
Me neither, right.
So I think that you knowmistakes.

(51:34):
Understanding that mistakeswill happen sets you free, that
you don't.
You know self-flagellate thatyou know you made a mistake so
you can't make this because thateats into your confidence.
Sometimes you know it's notyour mistake I mean like it's a
mistake on portfolio but it'snot your mistake in the sense
that there's nothing wrong withyour process.
But investment is art, it's notscience.
So things will go wrong and theonly way you can protect

(51:56):
yourself is to size the tradescorrectly and take feedback from
something is happening orhappened in the past.
Then you use that as a lessonto understand.
Well, it may happen or thingsare going to happen.
One thing I've seen consistentlyin the market is that the herd
mentality and the herd behavioragain, behavioral finance is

(52:19):
extremely strong, extremelystrong.
So when something gets solddown, there is no limit to how
much it can sell more.
So if you're doing riskmanagement and if you're sitting
on something with 20% loss, youcan be sure it can be 50% loss
much it can sell more.
So if you're doing riskmanagement and if you're sitting
on something which is 20% lost,you can be sure it can be 50%
lost, I can tell you.
But when the herd takes over.
They don't look at valuation.

(52:39):
So when you're looking at yourposition, if you really want to
sell something because the storyhas changed, sell it.
Don't try to think that, oh,it'll sell only 10% and then
buyers will come in.
No, no, no, I think that itcould be sold down to like big,
big and deep levels.
So when you take that as afeedback, you avoid losses.

(53:00):
So if the story has changed,sell it.
Even if you have minus 10%,sell it.
But you could be selling atminus 50% and regretting that
you didn't take your own adviceright at the beginning.
Admit you got it wrong.
Story has changed.
You need to be out of this.
Sell it.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
I have a question.
Talk about story, because it'sone of the things I'd like to
get better at in 2025,storytelling.
I think humans crave stories,but of course, in markets,
narratives can often be a littlebit misleading.
So how do you manage your ownrelationship with narratives?

(53:37):
How do you think aboutstorytelling, especially when
some stories are kind ofemotionally compelling but not
analytically sound?

Speaker 1 (53:46):
Correct and I think that it's just from just
training yourself.
I mean, that's what I have done.
I always say that as aportfolio manager, your job is
not to say what should happen,but what is going to happen,
because we always get caught inwhat should happen.
So we'll say, oh, this personshould not be prime minister,
that should not be office, theyshould not put this tariff.

(54:06):
You should have this equality.
You should have that.
Most of the time, you are justimposing your own views.
You're really not looking atwhat is happening in the market
or what other marketparticipants are going to do.
So I always get out of thistrap of what should happen
Should is your idealistic view.
It's never going to happen.
We should just care about whatis going to happen in the market
and how it is positioned.
So when people say market iswrong, I take an issue with that

(54:30):
, because I think market is fullof market participants, they're
making their decisions andthey're taking a view based on
that.
So I would say that having thisunderstanding of how things work
around you, looking at howmarkets behave and, of course,

(54:51):
one important point, ignacio, isthat the market structure keeps
on changing.
So when you have a lot of ETHhere and if you're doing single
stock, you know that your singlestocks are going to come in for
pummeling if something was togo wrong, because a lot of flow
is going to sell it and we usedto have the GDP number.
The first reaction to GDP Q1GDP was everyone to sell, and we

(55:13):
used to solve with the GDPnumber.
The first reaction to GDP Q1GDP was everyone to sell, and
then people started looking atthe data.
So now you're dealing withalgos, you're dealing with ETFs.
So understanding the marketstructure again comes down to
liquidity.
It's very important.
Your good stocks could be soldby 10%.
Well, it's happening.
Trillion dollar companies arefalling by 10% in a day, which
was not the case before.
So understanding that it's amarket structure, not something
wrong with your thesis, is veryimportant.

(55:35):
So you can hold your trade oryou can buy into that trade and
not just discard your trade.
Oh, it's down 20.
I need to get out of it.
Out of the 20, 15 could be justdriven by liquidity and flow
algos.
You have no control over thatand so when they read or people
read and make decisions, youcould be up 15% on that, and
then you don't pat your back andsay, oh, I made 30% on this

(55:56):
trade.
A lot of that could be becauseof liquidity.
So have the humility to take asmuch credit that you should,
but also, at the same time,don't let that discourage you if
something was to go wrong onthe negative side.

Speaker 2 (56:09):
Very good answer, manish.
We're getting close to thewrong on the negative side.
Very good answer, manish.
We're getting close to the endof the conversation.
Wow, I mean, there's so manyamazing insights that you've
been sharing today.
I'm sure, like a lot of ourlisteners are loving this
conversation, but I'd like toask you one last question.
Sure, a question about the nextgeneration.

(56:30):
Really, what's one piece ofadvice that you'd give to young
investors, to future CIOs, toall those young lads that are
entering the finance industrytoday, something that you wish
you had learned earlier in yourcareer and that you think it's
really important?

Speaker 1 (56:46):
I think it's very simple as a fall in love with
the process, not the outcome.
I think it's very simple as afall in love with the process,
not the outcome.
Because when you areoutcome-based, you will judge
yourself, you will call yourselfI'm not doing very well, but
you're just focused on theoutcome.
You're focused on this biggerthing which might come down the
line.
But when you fall in love withthe process, by which I mean
when you wake up, you getexcited about a piece of news.

(57:07):
You go and read that indifferent journals, different
things.
When I do my research, it'slike going through a different
thing.
I can go to a different website, go to a research website, go
to a US-based Princeton libraryto get a document from there on
Plaza Accord.
I wrote a post on Plaza Accordtoday and I looked at you know
so what happened?
Who was the pledge secretary?

(57:28):
So it was Don Regan and thenreplaced by James Baker, and
James Baker was in favor ofintervention.
Don Regan was not in favor ofintervention.
So when you do all these things, the process, that's the
exciting bit.
Like you're excited every day.
I always say that.
I always think that I'm doingthe best job that I could ever
do and I'm getting paid for it,which is excellent.

(57:49):
This is something that I woulddo anywhere, do, and I'm getting
paid for it, which is which isexcellent.
Right, there's something that Iwould do anyway, like I.
This is, this is true.
My mom called me many years agoand she did, and, like, she went
to high school, not touniversity, and she did Many.
What do you?
What do you do?
I know you come on television,people like you, you have a good
job.
What do you do?
And I said and this is my time,my thing, to get back to her

(58:09):
about newspapers I said, mom, Iread newspapers and I get paid
for it.
And she started laughing.
I said, mom, that's true,that's absolutely true, that's
what I do.
I read news.
And my mom was saying, oh, thenewspaper.
You've always read that sinceyour childhood, you know.
So I would say that fall inlove with the process, don't

(58:36):
fall in love with the outcome,because when you fall in love
with the outcome, you judgeyourself, you let others judge
you and that is never a happyprocess because you have no
control on that.
What you are doing, you are incontrol, you have excitement of
that reading thing, visitingplaces, doing things.
So I would say, fall in lovewith the process, not the
outcome that's a really good one.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
I feel it applies to so many things in life, like the
journey, not the end result,and I think it's a great way to
finish this conversation.
I love the quote about youbeing paid for reading
newspapers.
I argue that's only a part ofthe job, but it's a good one.
I'll use that one with my momwhenever she asks me next.
Manish, it's been absolutelyamazing to have you on the show.

(59:10):
Thank you so much for your time, for all those valuable
insights.
I think you really came acrossas a very savvy investor, and
those values that you werepreaching for humility and
diligence really came throughthis conversation.
So thank you for that, and Ihope the upcoming years are as

(59:31):
good in terms of performance,but also in terms of enjoyment
for you and your future businessventures.

Speaker 1 (59:40):
Thank you very much, Ignacio.
I really enjoyed this chat Verycomfortable and easy chat and I
highly recommend other peopleto come on this chat and share
their knowledge.

Speaker 2 (59:48):
Thank you.
The Blunt Dollar is written,produced, hosted and edited by
me, ignacio Ramirez.
Everything you hear conceptscript, sound design and
production comes straight frommy desk and, occasionally, my
kitchen table.
Thank you so much for listeningand join me in the next episode
of the Blunt Dollar for moreraw, honest finance

(01:00:08):
conversations.