Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Deep
Dive.
Today, we're really gettinginto foldable smartphones.
Remember when these firstshowed up Lots of skepticism,
right?
People asking, is this justlike a gimmick?
And, honestly, some scarystories back then too.
Ok, let's unpack this a bit.
We're going to explore how farfoldables have actually come,
where they stand now in themarket, what challenges are
still out there and some of thereally cool innovations shaping
(00:22):
what's next.
We've looked at marketforecasts, tech reviews, user
studies, trying to get you thefull picture here.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
It really is
fascinating.
I mean back in 2019, it feltlike this sci-fi dream, but they
were also pretty clunky,expensive, a bit fragile, maybe
more prototype than you knowDaily Driver.
But now, 2025, wow, they'resleeker, way smarter and, yeah,
much more tempting.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Let's talk numbers,
then, because the market, well,
it's definitely evolved.
Global shipments are headingtowards maybe 19.8 million units
this year, 2025, which, okay,sounds like a lot, but here's
the thing they're still kind ofniche.
Market penetration is hoveringaround what?
1.6%, pretty much the same as2024.
So growth, but maybe sloweradoption than some expected.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Absolutely.
It's slower than the initialhype might have suggested and if
you look at the bigger picture,it makes sense why companies
keep pushing this.
Tech is a massivedifferentiator for brands.
It's about premiumization, itsets them apart from companies
not in the foldable space and itdefinitely boosts that brand
innovation awareness.
Right now it might be lessabout grabbing huge market share
(01:29):
and more about showing off techleadership.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
Okay and
leadership-wise.
Samsung's been the name rightfrom the start, but their global
share it's projected toactually drop from over 45% last
year down to maybe 35% in 2025.
And they just launched our newones the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Z
Flip 7, july 9th.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Yeah, that drop
really shows how much hotter the
competition is getting for 2025.
You've got Huawei projected tograb the second spot globally,
around 34.3%.
That's huge.
And then you see these fastgrowers honors moving up from 6%
to over 9%.
Lenovo, which includes Motorola, they're climbing to 5.5%, up
to 7.6%.
And Xiaomi, with their MX Flip,they're expected to go from 3%
(02:06):
to over 5%.
Then there's OPPO, vivo andthey count for another 8.5%
combined.
It's well.
It's getting crowded Moreexciting, frankly.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
So, with all these
players jumping in, how are they
trying to stand out?
What's actually new?
We've seen some reallyinteresting devices, like the
Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7.
People, samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7.
People are calling it a greatall-rounder.
It's got that bigger 4.1-inchouter screen.
The Flex window Feels sturdiertoo, and it even supports
Samsung DeX.
You know for that desktopexperience, plus new AI stuff
like Gemini Live.
(02:33):
But then look at the MotorolaRazr Ultra, the 2025 version.
Battery life king Tests show ithitting what?
15 hours and 42 minutes.
That's the longest-lastingfoldable tested.
Big 4700 mAh battery.
Titanium hinge Costs around$1,300.
And if multitasking is yourthing, the OnePlus Open.
Okay, it's almost two years oldnow, but that open canvas
feature still fantastic, Runningthree apps side by side pretty
(02:56):
smoothly.
And cameras and AI Samsung ZFold 7 is getting attention
there.
Super thin design this time inthat new 200 megapixel main
camera, plus AI tricks optimizedfor the folding screen, but
$2,000, steep.
Google's Pixel 9 Pro Fold 2,great AI for photo editing,
apparently.
And that main screen, the eightinch one, super bright hit over
2,300 nits in tests reallyvivid.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Right.
So you've got all theseadvancements, all these specific
selling points, but adoption isstill kind of measured, which
brings up that importantquestion, right, why?
Well, the key barriers?
They still seem to be.
Lingering concerns Things likecrease, visibility, durability
worries and definitely the highprice tags.
Plus, for a lot of folks whoaren't, you know, hardcore brand
(03:38):
loyalists, there's just not ahuge incentive yet to switch
from a perfectly good regularsmartphone.
The benefits aren't alwayscrystal clear for daily use.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Yeah, that durability
question.
It's like the ghost that hauntsfoldables, isn't it?
We all remember those earlydays the hinge woes, screens
cracking or scratching easily,that visible crease and dust
Dust getting inside themechanism was a real nightmare
for some early adopters.
Made you think twice for sure.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Oh, absolutely.
But manufacturers, they'vedefinitely been listening and
they are seriously toughening upthese phones Material-wise.
Pretty much everyone's usingultra-thin glass UTG now Much
better resistance on that innerscreen.
Samsung claims their latest ZFold can take 200,000 folds,
(04:22):
which okay if you fold it 100times a day.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
that's like five
years.
Pretty good, 200,000, wow.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
And the hinges are
getting smarter too.
Designs with self-cleaningbrushes, like Samsung's new
Armor Flex, hinge on the Fold 7,which, by the way, is also
thinner and lighter.
And you've got zero-gap systems, like on Motorola's Razr,
trying to block debriscompletely and weatherproofing.
That's come a long way.
Ipx8 ratings are becomingstandard.
It means they can handle beingsubmerged in water.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
That's a huge jump.
And there was that user studyon Samsung's Folds right.
It showed the newer ones Fold 5and 6, are way more reliable
than the older 3 and 4.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Yeah, the data there
is really quite striking RMA
rates, return, merchandiseauthorization basically sending
it back for repair dropped likea stone From nearly 50% for the
Fold 4 down to just 5% for theFold 6.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
That's massive 50%
down to 5.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Okay, and micro
cracks.
Remember how big a deal thosewere.
They went from almost 40% onthe Fold 3 down to just 3.3% on
the Fold 6.
Basically gone Screen protectorpeeling too.
They used to be a bad signlinked to higher RMAs and cracks
, now almost eliminated on theFold 6.
Like 1.6% compared to over 90%.
Peeling on the Fold 3 showsthat factory protector is
(05:28):
crucial and much better now.
But the study did find somethinginteresting.
Most serious issues, likeactual cracks and breaks, tend
to show up after the first year,peaking beyond 24 months.
So yeah, initial reliability isway up, but long term we still
need a bit more data as thesedevices age.
Also, if your screen isn'topening totally flat, that could
be an early warning sign ofinternal trouble.
(05:50):
The Fold 6 actually showed aslightly higher rate of this
flatness issue early on than theFold 5 did, which is something
to keep an eye on.
But here's maybe the biggestsurprise your usage habits, how
often you fold it.
Whether you use the inner orouter screen more, according to
this study it has no measurableimpact on durability zero.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Okay, so that's good
news for users.
Don't need to baby it quite asmuch.
So the takeaway on durabilityseems to be they've definitely
shed that fragile reputation.
Mostly Much tougher, but maybestill not quite at the level of,
you know, toss it in your bagwith your keys Tough.
Especially that inner screenStill needs some care.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Exactly Robust, yes.
Invincible, no.
Especially that softer innerdisplay.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
All right, so
durability is much improved.
But there's that otherchallenge, the one that always
comes up with bigger screensBattery life.
Bigger display needs more powerright, but everyone wants slim
phones.
It's a tough balancing act,stuffing enough battery in there
.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
It really is.
You have these complex hingemechanisms taking up space plus
all the other components.
Now we are seeing advancementsSilicon, carbon materials and
batteries are helping boostcapacity, like OPPO's Find N5,
supposedly hitting 5600 milli.
That's way up from theirearlier 4500 milli Find N.
But yeah, getting that biggercapacity without making the
phone thick and clunky, that'sthe dilemma.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
And the latest tests
on Samsung's new phones kind of
highlight this, don't they?
The Galaxy Z Fold 7, samebattery size as the Fold 6,
40,400 mAh.
And the battery life gamepretty small just under 11 hours
.
Still behind phones like theOnePlus Open or the Pixel 9 Pro
Fold.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Marginal gains.
Yeah, the Fold 7, it's not ahuge leap from its predecessor.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
The Z Flip 7 did
better, though.
Bigger battery this time, 4,300milliamps.
It got over 12 hours, which isa decent jump from the Flip 6,
but still nowhere near thatMotorola Razr Ultra at over 15
hours, or even the standard Razr, which gets nearly 14 hours.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
So Samsung's
definitely making efforts.
You see the improvement on theFlip 7, especially, but for the
Fold 7, the gains are small.
And, yeah, they're stillplaying catch up with some
competitors on longevity, andthat matters because battery
life is consistently one of thetop things people look for in
any phone, let alone a priceyfoldable.
It's still a hurdle.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Okay, so we've
tackled durability improvements,
the ongoing battery challenge,what's next, what's the future
look like and the elephant inthe room, or maybe the foldable
elephant Apple.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
when are they jumping
in?
Right the Apple factor.
That's expected to be a hugeturning point.
Trendforce is suggestingApple's likely targeting the
second half of 2026 for theirfirst foldable phone 2026.
Rumored specs point to maybe a5.5-inch external screen and a
7.8-inch internal one, and youcan bet their entry will
significantly boost interest andacceptance, especially at the
high end.
(08:33):
Expect deep iOS optimizationfor the folding format, that
classic seamlesshardware-software integration.
But there are even rumorsthey're aiming for a crease-free
inner display, maybe using somelaser-drilled metal plate tech
and possibly Touch ID on thepower button.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Hmm, typical Apple.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Playing the long game
, waiting for the tech to mature
, aiming for perfection.
Do you think waiting untilpotentially late 2026 puts them
at a disadvantage, though, or isit just smart?
Speaker 3 (09:01):
It's a classic Apple
strategy, isn't it?
They might miss some earlysales, yeah, but they focus on
getting the user experienceabsolutely right, making it
robust.
Their entry isn't just aboutselling a new device.
It's about validating thecategory, setting a new standard
for how it all works together.
They're betting that perfectedbeats first.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Makes sense, but
other companies aren't waiting
around.
What else is cooking?
Samsung's teasing somethingpretty wild.
Right A trifold yeah that's thelatest buzz.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
A potential late 2025
launch, possibly A device that
folds twice, opening up to amassive like 9.9 inch screen
Almost tablet territory.
Initially expected in limitednumbers, probably China and
Korea first testing the watersfor such a radical design.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
A tri-fold.
Wow, that could change things.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
And then there's the
relentless push across the
industry for ultra-slim designs.
The goal seems to be closingthat final one millimeter gap
with regular bar phones, gettingfoldables down to maybe eight
millimeter thick when closed.
How?
Speaker 1 (09:59):
are they even doing
that?
Speaker 3 (10:01):
Incredible
engineering, reducing hinge
parts from hundreds down to lessthan 100.
Using advanced materials liketitanium alloys, it's all about
making them feel just as sleekand portable as a traditional
phone, even with the hinge.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
And then there's AI,
generative AI, gen AI.
How does that fit into thefoldable picture?
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Oh, I think Gen AI is
going to be huge for foldables.
It could really enhance the usecase.
Think about smartercross-device experiences, your
foldable working seamlessly withyour other gear and enabling
new kinds of interactions onthose split screens, like maybe
getting real-time photo previewson the cover screen while you
shoot with the main cameraunfolded, or using AI tools
collaboratively side-by-side onthat big inner display an AI
(10:39):
assistant that truly understandsthe context of how you're using
the foldable screen.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Okay.
So wrapping this deep dive up?
Foldable phones definitely nota novelty anymore, not just a
gimmick.
They've made huge stridesDesign, durability, features.
It's impressive.
Lots of players now pushinghard, even teasing crazy new
forms like trifolds.
Challenges remain sure Batterylife on some models, the price.
But with Apple likely joiningsoon the push for slimness and
(11:05):
Gen AI integration, the futurelooks really dynamic,
transformative maybe.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
Which really leads to
the big question for you, the
listener, doesn't it?
As these foldables get thinner,tougher, smarter, with AI,
could they eventually replaceyour traditional phone, maybe
even your laptop?
Or are they carving out a wholenew category, something that
changes how we interact withtech in ways we're only just
starting to grasp?
Speaker 1 (11:30):
It's definitely an
exciting space to watch.
Think about those tradeoffs,the possibilities.
What could these bendablescreens mean for how you use
technology day to day?
Lots to consider.