September 5, 2025 • 17 mins
Semiconductors – the silent powerhouses behind everything from your smartphone to trillion-dollar data centers – are experiencing a remarkable resurgence. Global semiconductor sales have rocketed to $346 billion in the first half of 2025, a stunning 18.9% year-over-year increase that signals not just recovery, but accelerating momentum in this foundational tech sector.
What's driving this surge? Logic chips have exploded with 37% growth as data centers and AI applications devour processing power. Memory chips follow closely at 20% growth, reflecting the insatiable appetite for data storage in our AI-driven world. After a difficult 21% market contraction in 2022-2023, the industry has staged a dramatic V-shaped recovery, with quarterly billings rebounding from $120 billion to $180 billion – concrete evidence of semiconductors' non-negotiable importance in modern infrastructure.
At the epicenter of this renaissance stands NVIDIA, whose journey exemplifies both the extraordinary potential and fascinating complexities of the semiconductor landscape. With a market cap exceeding $4.1 trillion and 60.64% year-over-year stock growth, NVIDIA dominates the AI chip conversation. Yet even after beating earnings expectations with $46.7 billion in revenue, the stock experienced a curious post-report dip. This apparent paradox reveals the psychology of ultra-high expectations, where even stellar performance can disappoint if it falls short of "whisper numbers" circulating among investors.
Beyond the headlines, NVIDIA's strategic playbook offers valuable insights. While data centers generate 88% of their revenue, the company maintains impressive diversification across gaming, professional visualization, and automotive segments. Their global expansion, compliance-friendly chip development for restricted markets, and software ecosystem building demonstrate a sophisticated approach to navigating geopolitical challenges. With CEO Jensen Huang projecting data center spending to reach $1 trillion by 2028, the stakes couldn't be higher.
Whether you're a tech enthusiast curious about the components powering your digital life or an investor navigating this volatile but promising sector, understanding semiconductor dynamics has never been more relevant. Subscribe now to continue exploring the invisible infrastructure reshaping our world.
Leave your thoughts in the comments and subscribe for more tech updates and reviews.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Ida (00:00):
Welcome to the deep dive.
We cut through the noise,bringing you the key insights
from well, mountains ofinformation.
Ever pick up your phone, log onto your laptop, maybe check
your investments, and justwonder what's really making it
all work?
So often it comes down to thesetiny, powerful things.
Semiconductors are kind of thesilent engines of our digital
lives, and right now they're amassive force shaping the global
(00:23):
economy lives.
And right now they're a massiveforce shaping the global
economy.
Today we're diving deep intothat world the global
semiconductor market, which isincredibly dynamic and the
absolute titan leading thecharge, nvidia.
If you're someone who uses techdaily, or maybe you own some
tech stocks, perhaps even NVIDIAitself, then this deep dive is
really for you.
Our mission To quickly get youup to speed on the most
important trends, what'sactually driving them and what
(00:45):
it all means for how youunderstand tech and maybe your
financial outlook.
To do this, we've pulled from areally diverse stack of sources
industry stats from the worldof semiconductor, trade
statistics, financial andownership data from Fintel and
TrendEdge, plus expert analysisfrom KiWealth, ainvest, goldman
Sachs and Nasdaq, and get readyfor some real aha moments.
We'll uncover surprising marketresilience, nvidia's frankly
(01:07):
unbelievable growth and eventhose fascinating kind of
counterintuitive things like whya company might beat earnings
but still see its stock dip.
Let's decode it all.
Allan (01:16):
It's a great mission and, yeah, there's definitely a lot
to unpack here.
When we talk semiconductors,we're really talking about the
fundamental building blocks ofwell, almost everything
electronic around us, you know,from your smart toaster right up
to these enormous data centerspowering the cloud, and AI chips
are just core.
Ida (01:33):
That's a perfect way to put it.
And the scale, the influence ofthis market, it's truly
mind-boggling.
So let's start with that bigpicture.
First half of 2025, what arethe numbers from the World
Semiconductor Trade Statistics,WSTS, the authority here telling
us?
Allan (01:47):
Yeah, the WSTS data paints a very positive picture.
The global semiconductor markethit an impressive $346 billion
in just the first half of 2025.
And what's really key here,this isn't just small growth.
It's a substantial 18.9%increase compared to last year.
That signals a significantrebound and continued momentum
18.9%.
Ida (02:08):
That's not just a small uptick.
Where's that rocket fuel comingfrom?
Is it across the board or arespecific areas really booming?
Allan (02:16):
Well, it's fascinating where the growth is concentrated
.
It's really being driven by asurge in, let's say, core
computing capabilities, logicchips, the processors making
decisions so an astonishing 37%increase.
That's mainly fueled by hugedemand for data center
infrastructure and, importantly,this exciting emergence of AI
Edge applications.
(02:37):
AI Edge, so bringing theprocessing right onto the device
itself, like smart cameras orcars, Exactly making them faster
, more secure, less reliant onthe cloud for every little cars
Exactly, making them faster,more secure, less reliant on the
cloud for every little thing.
Then you have memory chips,vital for storing all that data.
They weren't far behind,jumping 20% again, largely
thanks to data centers, and AI.
Sensors also did really well,up 16%.
We saw more moderate growth inanalog and micro, both around 4%
(02:59):
, and even slight dips indiscrete down 4%, and
optoelectronics, basically flat.
But the real momentumundeniably is with those
foundational components poweringAI.
Ida (03:07):
So this isn't just steady growth, is it?
It feels more like a seriouscomeback.
Looking at the WSTS chart forquarterly billings, it really
does look like a roller coaster.
Billings dropped from what $152billion in Q1 2022 down to $120
billion in Q1 2023.
That's a huge dip over 21%, butthen the recovery looks just as
(03:27):
dramatic.
Allan (03:28):
It really is a classic V-shaped recovery.
Almost.
It illustrates the market'sresilience quite well.
From that low point of $120billion, the market climbed
steadily back up hitting $180billion in Q2 of 2025.
That comeback represents areally robust 19.6% growth
quarter over quarter.
It's a testament to howessential these things are.
Ida (03:47):
Okay.
So, with that impressiverebound, what's the forecast
Looking at the rest of 2025,into 2026,?
Is this momentum going to stickaround?
Allan (03:53):
Well connecting this to the bigger picture, wsts has
actually revised its full year2025 forecast upward.
They're now expecting $728billion.
That reflects an impressive15.4% annual growth, and that's
a four percentage point increasefrom earlier estimates, which
really speaks to the market'sunderlying strength.
Looking further out, the 2026outlook is projecting an $800
(04:15):
billion market, so still growingaround 9.9%.
Regionally, the Americas andAsia Pacific are expected to
keep leading the way.
Europe's strengthening.
Japan might see a slightdecline.
Ida (04:25):
That's a fantastic overview of a market clearly roaring
back.
But you know, behind these hugesurges there's often one name
pulling a lot of weight, and inthis story, that name is
definitely NVIDIA.
Let's zoom in.
What's NVIDIA status right now,early September 2025?
Allan (04:39):
NVIDIA, ticker, NVDA yeah , they remain absolutely pivotal
.
As of September 3rd, the stockwas around $170.62 per share.
What's truly remarkableespecially if you've been
watching it, is theyear-over-year growth A
staggering 60.64% increase fromabout $106 just a year ago.
This has pushed its market capto a massive $4.163 trillion.
Ida (04:58):
Those are eye-watering numbers.
But then we get to the Q2earnings report end of August
Adjusted EPS $1 sale FENT beatthe $1 expectation Revenue $46.7
billion beat the $46.1 billionforecast.
By all accounts solid, greatnumbers even.
But then the stock slippedabout 3% after hours.
So they crushed it on paper,but the stock dipped.
(05:21):
What's going on there?
That seems counterintuitive.
Allan (05:24):
It really does, and it raises this important point
about market psychology,especially for investors.
Experts point to a few thingsbehind this lukewarm reaction.
First, while they topped theofficial estimates, they fell
just short of the unofficialwhisper number that was
supposedly a dollar or six.
Ida (05:39):
Ah, the whisper number.
So like the real expectation onthe street.
Allan (05:42):
Exactly.
It's subtle, but whenexpectations are that high, even
a tiny miss like that can coolthings down.
Second, that geopoliticaluncertainty around China Zero
H20 AI chip shipments in Q2, andthe guidance for Q3 assumes the
same.
That's a big wild card.
Ida (05:56):
Right, like the market was expecting an A+ and they got an
A.
Still great, but not theblowout some wanted.
Allan (06:01):
Precisely.
The market had already pricedin a bigger move, maybe around
6% post-earnings, so traderswere a bit caught off guard.
And lastly, even though 56%year-over-year revenue growth is
incredible, some perceived itas slowing compared to even
higher growth in prior quarters,so a perception issue Maybe.
Ida (06:20):
I get it Strong quarter, but not the absolute rocket ship
some had dialed in given thestratospheric expectations.
But the bigger picture forNVIDIA's core growth engines,
that tells a different storyright.
Allan (06:31):
Yeah, absolutely.
Look.
The data center segment is, asthey say, absolutely killing it.
This is where their AI chipspower the cloud, large AI models
.
Sales surged 56% year over yearto $41.1 billion.
That kind of were a massive 88%of their total revenue, and
platforms like Blackwell areboosting AI training speeds like
up to four times faster.
They're really cementing theirdominance there.
Ida (06:52):
We here in video.
We think AI, but is it all AIor is the growth more
diversified?
Are other parts pulling theirweight?
Allan (06:58):
That's a key point.
While AI is huge, their growthis quite diversified.
Gaming revenue, for example,jumped a very healthy 49% to
$4.3 billion.
That's GPUs for gamers, newgame launches, their
professional visualization,business, automotive, also
growing at double digit rates.
They're definitely not aone-trick pony Plus.
They keep innovating New stufflike NVLink Fusion for better
(07:20):
GPU connection, the RTX PROserver for corporate AI,
upcoming workstations like DGXSpark and DGX Station.
They're constantly pushing.
Ida (07:28):
Okay.
So, despite these short-termmarket wobbles, it sounds like
the smart money.
The big institutions are stillbetting big on NVIDIA.
Who owns them, and what's thesentiment there?
Allan (07:36):
The institutional confidence is undeniable.
Nvidia has get this 7,493institutional owners.
They hold over 18.6 billionshares.
That represents a huge chunk76.58% of the company held by
major financial players.
You know the big names Vanguard, blackrock, fmr LLC.
They're among the largestshareholders and Fintel's fund
(07:57):
sentiment score indicates highinstitutional accumulation,
meaning these big funds areactively buying more.
Here's a fascinating detail FMRLLC that's Fidelity increased
its NVIDIA stake by a whopping680.72% back in November 2024.
That's aggressive positioning.
Ida (08:15):
Wow, that's conviction.
So those are the human heavyhitters.
What about AI's take on AI?
How does TrendEdge's AI scorerate NVIDIA?
It looks beyond just the usualfinancials, right.
Allan (08:25):
TrendEdge's score is really interesting because it
pulls in different data types.
It rates NVIDIA as hold overall, but the breakdown shows a
bullish projection Fundamental 8, Alternative 7, Technical 6.
And this is where thatalternative data comes in.
It's not just balance sheets,For instance, web traffic Over
30.7 million monthly visitors toNVIDIAcom and it's growing
steadily.
That's a lot of engagementcustomers, developers, partners
30 million visitors.
Ida (08:46):
That says a lot about their ecosystem reach.
What else does that alternativedata show what's happening
under the hood?
Allan (08:52):
It's quite revealing.
Job openings NVIDIA has around3,000 open positions right now.
That's up 50% month over monthand an incredible 200% year over
year.
That signals really aggressiveexpansion plans, confidence in
the future.
Employee sentiment very bullish93% report a positive business
outlook internally.
Plus, you see significantfollower growth on social media
(09:14):
Twitter, instagram, linkedin andeven Reddit.
Sentiment and investmentcommunities is bullish, scoring
60 out of 100.
Ida (09:20):
OK, that paints a strong picture of current activity and
buzz, but let's look further atthe really long term vision.
What's CEO Jensen Huangprojecting for data centers?
And NVIDIA's slice of that pie?
Allan (09:31):
Right Connecting to the bigger picture.
Huang's forecast is seriouslyambitious.
He expects data center capitalexpenditure the money companies
spend building these hugecomputing hubs to jump from $400
billion in 2024 to anastounding $1 trillion by 2028.
Ida (09:46):
$1 trillion just on data centers.
Allan (09:48):
That's the projection More than doubling in four years
.
And if NVIDIA can just maintainits current market share
roughly 30% that alone couldmean $300 billion just from data
center GPU sales for them.
It really highlights themassive potential runway they're
aiming for if they hold thatshare.
Ida (10:05):
That is a staggering number , but with such huge
expectations, there have to besignificant risks.
What should investors, or evenjust people watching this space,
be aware of?
Allan (10:16):
Yeah, high growth often comes with high risks.
Valuation is definitely one.
The stock's trading at aprice-to-sales ratio over 30x,
forward PE around 35x.
These are really high multiples.
It means investors are bettingheavily on future growth,
leaving, as experts say, littleroom for mistakes.
Any slip-up could hit the stockhard.
Then there's gross marginpressure.
Big customers like Google,Amazon, Microsoft are developing
(10:38):
their own chips that could eatinto NVIDIA's dominance.
Big customers like Google,Amazon, Microsoft are developing
their own chips that could eatinto NVIDIA's dominance.
Ida (10:46):
Plus, you've got increasing competition from AMD and also
Huawei, often with lower costalternatives, and the China
situation remains a big cloudoverhead, doesn't it?
Huge market but politicallytricky.
Allan (10:52):
Absolutely.
The China conundrum issignificant.
Us export control stopped H20AI chip sales in Q2, and Q3
guidance assumes the same.
China's revenue contributionhas already dropped from 21%
down to under 15%.
That's ongoing uncertainty.
Plus.
There's been talk of sluggishshipment of GB200 chips, their
important new product.
That's seen as a short-termhurdle, though they say midterm
(11:15):
issues are being addressed.
Ida (11:16):
Okay, so valuation, competition, china, potential
bottlenecks it sounds like aminefield.
How is NVIDIA navigating allthis?
What's their strategic playbooklook like?
Allan (11:25):
They're definitely not sitting still.
They're tackling these risksproactively with a few key
strategies.
First, global diversificationaggressively expanding into
India, southeast Asia, latinAmerica setting up AI
infrastructure collaborationsthere spreading the risk.
Setting up AI infrastructurecollaborations there spreading
the risk.
Second, strengthening Westernties, doubling down on
relationships with the big UScloud providers AWS, azure,
(11:46):
google Cloud and European AIstartups too.
They're deploying advanced,higher margin products there,
like Blackwell Ultra andSpectrum XGS Ethernet.
Ida (11:54):
And China specifically.
How do you even operate therewith these export controls?
Allan (11:58):
What's fascinating is their adaptation.
They're developing thesecompliant chips, the B30A and
RTX 6,000D models.
Basically scale downperformance to meet regulations
but still maintain a presence.
News just came out actually setforth that samples of the B30A
might ship as early as thismonth, apparently priced at
twice the old H20 chip, ifapproved.
(12:18):
So, trying to capture valueeven with restrictions and
beyond hardware, they're pushingtheir software platforms CUA,
omniverse, ai Enterpriseglobally.
That creates recurring revenue,especially valuable where
hardware sales are limited.
It builds that ecosystemstickiness.
Ida (12:34):
It definitely sounds like a multi-pronged strategy.
Looking ahead, what are the keypotential catalysts that could
really move the needle forNVIDIA's stock in late 2025,
maybe into 2026?
Goldman Sachs highlighted three, I think.
Allan (12:46):
That's right.
Goldman Sachs flags three keythings for you to watch.
First, hyperscale data centerCapEx reports.
October 2025 is critical.
We'll hear from Amazon,alphabet, microsoft, meta about
their spending plans If thoseCapEx forecasts get revised
upward.
It signals continued strong AIinvestment.
You mentioned Meta projectingmaybe $72 billion, alphabet $85
(13:08):
billion.
A lot of that aimed atNVIDIA-powered data centers.
So watch those reports.
Ida (13:13):
Okay, so keep an eye on the big cloud guys spending in
October.
What's catalyst number two?
Allan (13:17):
The Rubin product timeline.
Rubin is the next big thingafter Blackwell, slated for the
second half of 2026.
It's using cutting edge techthree enemy to process HBM4
memory super powerful stuff forAI.
Nvidia has already reaffirmed asmooth transition, despite some
rumors of delays.
Any positive updates on Rubinwould definitely boost
confidence in their long-termtech lead.
And finally, catalyst 3 is justmore clarity on the China
(13:39):
business.
Any news on compliance marketdemand policy impacts that would
reduce a lot of the currentuncertainty.
Ida (13:44):
Makes sense.
So, given all this, thepotential catalyst, the risks,
the volatility what does it meanfor you as an investor?
What are some tradingstrategies or levels?
People are watching.
Allan (13:56):
Well, kindwell's technical analysis suggests some
key levels.
Profit taking seems likelybetween $172 and $184.
A strong move above $184 couldpotentially spark a push towards
$200 or even higher.
But if it falls below $172,that might trigger wider selling
.
For those thinking about buyingthe dip, the analysis suggests
(14:17):
looking near $172 or maybe moreaggressively down in the $155
range if it gets there.
It's also interesting thatoptions implied volatility.
Basically the market'sexpectation of future swings has
decreased since earnings.
That signals maybe coolingdemand for huge moves, but still
potential for short-term upsand downs.
It's a market needing carefulattention.
Ida (14:36):
Definitely sounds like a dynamic situation needing a
considered approach.
Okay, let's wrap up with a peekinto the crystal ball.
What kind of price predictionsare out there for NVIDIA End of
2025, maybe even way out to 2030.
Allan (14:47):
Predictions, as always, are all over the map.
It really shows how toughforecasting is for a company
like this.
For the end of 2025, you seeestimates ranging from maybe
$145 on the low end, to a morebullish $264, looking way out to
2030.
Well, things get reallyspeculative.
You see some incredibly bullishforecasts, like one Reddit user
(15:08):
projecting $750 per share basedon estimated sales hitting $700
billion across all theirmarkets.
That would imply a $20 trillionmarket cap.
Others are more conservativefor 2030, maybe in the $150 to
$500 range.
It just highlights the hugerange of possible outcomes
Massive continued dominanceversus more tempered growth as
competition increases.
Ida (15:29):
Wow $750 a share, $20 trillion market cap those are
definitely attention grabbingnumbers, even if highly
speculative.
Ok, as we wrap up this deepdive, let's quickly recap the
key takeaways.
We've seen the globalsemiconductor market making a
remarkable rebound, reallyfueled by that surging demand
for logic and memory chips,especially for data centers and
AI.
And NVIDIA is right at theheart of this, just dominant in
AI infrastructure, with a reallyrobust product pipeline.
Allan (15:51):
Right.
But we also dug into thatfascinating paradox Even stellar
earnings can get a lukewarmreaction when expectations are
through the roof.
Valuation concerns geopoliticalrisks like China.
These are real factors.
Yet NVIDIA isn't standing still.
They're strategically adapting,diversifying globally,
strengthening partnerships, evendeveloping compliant chips to
(16:13):
navigate those trickyregulations.
Ida (16:15):
Exactly so.
By understanding these dynamics, from the big market trends
down to one company strategiesand the nuances of investor
sentiment, you are now,hopefully, incredibly well
informed about this criticalsector that really powers so
much of our world.
Allan (16:30):
Now for that final provocative thought to leave you
with.
Given NVIDIA's relentlessinnovation and its push into so
many new areas, are we lookingat a future where computing is
basically the future of NVIDIA,or are we maybe on the cusp of a
more diversified AI landscapewhere new players start to
seriously challenge its currentdominance?
How will NVIDIA's ownaggressive adaptations actually
shape the next decade of tech?
Ida (16:51):
Something to definitely think about.
Thank you for joining us on theDeep Dive.
We hope this gave you a clearer, sharper view of the
semiconductor market andNVIDIA's AI future.
Until next time, keep diggingdeeper.
Welcome to the deep dive.
We cut through the noise,bringing you the key insights
from well, mountains ofinformation.
Ever pick up your phone, log onto your laptop, maybe check
your investments, and justwonder what's really making it
all work?
So often it comes down to thesetiny, powerful things.
Semiconductors are kind of thesilent engines of our digital
lives, and right now they're amassive force shaping the global
(00:23):
economy lives.
And right now they're a massiveforce shaping the global
economy.
Today we're diving deep intothat world the global
semiconductor market, which isincredibly dynamic and the
absolute titan leading thecharge, nvidia.
If you're someone who uses techdaily, or maybe you own some
tech stocks, perhaps even NVIDIAitself, then this deep dive is
really for you.
Our mission To quickly get youup to speed on the most
important trends, what'sactually driving them and what
(00:45):
it all means for how youunderstand tech and maybe your
financial outlook.
To do this, we've pulled from areally diverse stack of sources
industry stats from the worldof semiconductor, trade
statistics, financial andownership data from Fintel and
TrendEdge, plus expert analysisfrom KiWealth, ainvest, goldman
Sachs and Nasdaq, and get readyfor some real aha moments.
We'll uncover surprising marketresilience, nvidia's frankly
(01:07):
unbelievable growth and eventhose fascinating kind of
counterintuitive things like whya company might beat earnings
but still see its stock dip.
Let's decode it all.
Allan (01:16):
It's a great mission and, yeah, there's definitely a lot
to unpack here.
When we talk semiconductors,we're really talking about the
fundamental building blocks ofwell, almost everything
electronic around us, you know,from your smart toaster right up
to these enormous data centerspowering the cloud, and AI chips
are just core.
Ida (01:33):
That's a perfect way to put it.
And the scale, the influence ofthis market, it's truly
mind-boggling.
So let's start with that bigpicture.
First half of 2025, what arethe numbers from the World
Semiconductor Trade Statistics,WSTS, the authority here telling
us?
Allan (01:47):
Yeah, the WSTS data paints a very positive picture.
The global semiconductor markethit an impressive $346 billion
in just the first half of 2025.
And what's really key here,this isn't just small growth.
It's a substantial 18.9%increase compared to last year.
That signals a significantrebound and continued momentum
18.9%.
Ida (02:08):
That's not just a small uptick.
Where's that rocket fuel comingfrom?
Is it across the board or arespecific areas really booming?
Allan (02:16):
Well, it's fascinating where the growth is concentrated
.
It's really being driven by asurge in, let's say, core
computing capabilities, logicchips, the processors making
decisions so an astonishing 37%increase.
That's mainly fueled by hugedemand for data center
infrastructure and, importantly,this exciting emergence of AI
Edge applications.
(02:37):
AI Edge, so bringing theprocessing right onto the device
itself, like smart cameras orcars, Exactly making them faster
, more secure, less reliant onthe cloud for every little cars
Exactly, making them faster,more secure, less reliant on the
cloud for every little thing.
Then you have memory chips,vital for storing all that data.
They weren't far behind,jumping 20% again, largely
thanks to data centers, and AI.
Sensors also did really well,up 16%.
We saw more moderate growth inanalog and micro, both around 4%
(02:59):
, and even slight dips indiscrete down 4%, and
optoelectronics, basically flat.
But the real momentumundeniably is with those
foundational components poweringAI.
Ida (03:07):
So this isn't just steady growth, is it?
It feels more like a seriouscomeback.
Looking at the WSTS chart forquarterly billings, it really
does look like a roller coaster.
Billings dropped from what $152billion in Q1 2022 down to $120
billion in Q1 2023.
That's a huge dip over 21%, butthen the recovery looks just as
(03:27):
dramatic.
Allan (03:28):
It really is a classic V-shaped recovery.
Almost.
It illustrates the market'sresilience quite well.
From that low point of $120billion, the market climbed
steadily back up hitting $180billion in Q2 of 2025.
That comeback represents areally robust 19.6% growth
quarter over quarter.
It's a testament to howessential these things are.
Ida (03:47):
Okay.
So, with that impressiverebound, what's the forecast
Looking at the rest of 2025,into 2026,?
Is this momentum going to stickaround?
Allan (03:53):
Well connecting this to the bigger picture, wsts has
actually revised its full year2025 forecast upward.
They're now expecting $728billion.
That reflects an impressive15.4% annual growth, and that's
a four percentage point increasefrom earlier estimates, which
really speaks to the market'sunderlying strength.
Looking further out, the 2026outlook is projecting an $800
(04:15):
billion market, so still growingaround 9.9%.
Regionally, the Americas andAsia Pacific are expected to
keep leading the way.
Europe's strengthening.
Japan might see a slightdecline.
Ida (04:25):
That's a fantastic overview of a market clearly roaring
back.
But you know, behind these hugesurges there's often one name
pulling a lot of weight, and inthis story, that name is
definitely NVIDIA.
Let's zoom in.
What's NVIDIA status right now,early September 2025?
Allan (04:39):
NVIDIA, ticker, NVDA yeah , they remain absolutely pivotal
.
As of September 3rd, the stockwas around $170.62 per share.
What's truly remarkableespecially if you've been
watching it, is theyear-over-year growth A
staggering 60.64% increase fromabout $106 just a year ago.
This has pushed its market capto a massive $4.163 trillion.
Ida (04:58):
Those are eye-watering numbers.
But then we get to the Q2earnings report end of August
Adjusted EPS $1 sale FENT beatthe $1 expectation Revenue $46.7
billion beat the $46.1 billionforecast.
By all accounts solid, greatnumbers even.
But then the stock slippedabout 3% after hours.
So they crushed it on paper,but the stock dipped.
(05:21):
What's going on there?
That seems counterintuitive.
Allan (05:24):
It really does, and it raises this important point
about market psychology,especially for investors.
Experts point to a few thingsbehind this lukewarm reaction.
First, while they topped theofficial estimates, they fell
just short of the unofficialwhisper number that was
supposedly a dollar or six.
Ida (05:39):
Ah, the whisper number.
So like the real expectation onthe street.
Allan (05:42):
Exactly.
It's subtle, but whenexpectations are that high, even
a tiny miss like that can coolthings down.
Second, that geopoliticaluncertainty around China Zero
H20 AI chip shipments in Q2, andthe guidance for Q3 assumes the
same.
That's a big wild card.
Ida (05:56):
Right, like the market was expecting an A+ and they got an
A.
Still great, but not theblowout some wanted.
Allan (06:01):
Precisely.
The market had already pricedin a bigger move, maybe around
6% post-earnings, so traderswere a bit caught off guard.
And lastly, even though 56%year-over-year revenue growth is
incredible, some perceived itas slowing compared to even
higher growth in prior quarters,so a perception issue Maybe.
Ida (06:20):
I get it Strong quarter, but not the absolute rocket ship
some had dialed in given thestratospheric expectations.
But the bigger picture forNVIDIA's core growth engines,
that tells a different storyright.
Allan (06:31):
Yeah, absolutely.
Look.
The data center segment is, asthey say, absolutely killing it.
This is where their AI chipspower the cloud, large AI models
.
Sales surged 56% year over yearto $41.1 billion.
That kind of were a massive 88%of their total revenue, and
platforms like Blackwell areboosting AI training speeds like
up to four times faster.
They're really cementing theirdominance there.
Ida (06:52):
We here in video.
We think AI, but is it all AIor is the growth more
diversified?
Are other parts pulling theirweight?
Allan (06:58):
That's a key point.
While AI is huge, their growthis quite diversified.
Gaming revenue, for example,jumped a very healthy 49% to
$4.3 billion.
That's GPUs for gamers, newgame launches, their
professional visualization,business, automotive, also
growing at double digit rates.
They're definitely not aone-trick pony Plus.
They keep innovating New stufflike NVLink Fusion for better
(07:20):
GPU connection, the RTX PROserver for corporate AI,
upcoming workstations like DGXSpark and DGX Station.
They're constantly pushing.
Ida (07:28):
Okay.
So, despite these short-termmarket wobbles, it sounds like
the smart money.
The big institutions are stillbetting big on NVIDIA.
Who owns them, and what's thesentiment there?
Allan (07:36):
The institutional confidence is undeniable.
Nvidia has get this 7,493institutional owners.
They hold over 18.6 billionshares.
That represents a huge chunk76.58% of the company held by
major financial players.
You know the big names Vanguard, blackrock, fmr LLC.
They're among the largestshareholders and Fintel's fund
(07:57):
sentiment score indicates highinstitutional accumulation,
meaning these big funds areactively buying more.
Here's a fascinating detail FMRLLC that's Fidelity increased
its NVIDIA stake by a whopping680.72% back in November 2024.
That's aggressive positioning.
Ida (08:15):
Wow, that's conviction.
So those are the human heavyhitters.
What about AI's take on AI?
How does TrendEdge's AI scorerate NVIDIA?
It looks beyond just the usualfinancials, right.
Allan (08:25):
TrendEdge's score is really interesting because it
pulls in different data types.
It rates NVIDIA as hold overall, but the breakdown shows a
bullish projection Fundamental 8, Alternative 7, Technical 6.
And this is where thatalternative data comes in.
It's not just balance sheets,For instance, web traffic Over
30.7 million monthly visitors toNVIDIAcom and it's growing
steadily.
That's a lot of engagementcustomers, developers, partners
30 million visitors.
Ida (08:46):
That says a lot about their ecosystem reach.
What else does that alternativedata show what's happening
under the hood?
Allan (08:52):
It's quite revealing.
Job openings NVIDIA has around3,000 open positions right now.
That's up 50% month over monthand an incredible 200% year over
year.
That signals really aggressiveexpansion plans, confidence in
the future.
Employee sentiment very bullish93% report a positive business
outlook internally.
Plus, you see significantfollower growth on social media
(09:14):
Twitter, instagram, linkedin andeven Reddit.
Sentiment and investmentcommunities is bullish, scoring
60 out of 100.
Ida (09:20):
OK, that paints a strong picture of current activity and
buzz, but let's look further atthe really long term vision.
What's CEO Jensen Huangprojecting for data centers?
And NVIDIA's slice of that pie?
Allan (09:31):
Right Connecting to the bigger picture.
Huang's forecast is seriouslyambitious.
He expects data center capitalexpenditure the money companies
spend building these hugecomputing hubs to jump from $400
billion in 2024 to anastounding $1 trillion by 2028.
Ida (09:46):
$1 trillion just on data centers.
Allan (09:48):
That's the projection More than doubling in four years
.
And if NVIDIA can just maintainits current market share
roughly 30% that alone couldmean $300 billion just from data
center GPU sales for them.
It really highlights themassive potential runway they're
aiming for if they hold thatshare.
Ida (10:05):
That is a staggering number , but with such huge
expectations, there have to besignificant risks.
What should investors, or evenjust people watching this space,
be aware of?
Allan (10:16):
Yeah, high growth often comes with high risks.
Valuation is definitely one.
The stock's trading at aprice-to-sales ratio over 30x,
forward PE around 35x.
These are really high multiples.
It means investors are bettingheavily on future growth,
leaving, as experts say, littleroom for mistakes.
Any slip-up could hit the stockhard.
Then there's gross marginpressure.
Big customers like Google,Amazon, Microsoft are developing
(10:38):
their own chips that could eatinto NVIDIA's dominance.
Big customers like Google,Amazon, Microsoft are developing
their own chips that could eatinto NVIDIA's dominance.
Ida (10:46):
Plus, you've got increasing competition from AMD and also
Huawei, often with lower costalternatives, and the China
situation remains a big cloudoverhead, doesn't it?
Huge market but politicallytricky.
Allan (10:52):
Absolutely.
The China conundrum issignificant.
Us export control stopped H20AI chip sales in Q2, and Q3
guidance assumes the same.
China's revenue contributionhas already dropped from 21%
down to under 15%.
That's ongoing uncertainty.
Plus.
There's been talk of sluggishshipment of GB200 chips, their
important new product.
That's seen as a short-termhurdle, though they say midterm
(11:15):
issues are being addressed.
Ida (11:16):
Okay, so valuation, competition, china, potential
bottlenecks it sounds like aminefield.
How is NVIDIA navigating allthis?
What's their strategic playbooklook like?
Allan (11:25):
They're definitely not sitting still.
They're tackling these risksproactively with a few key
strategies.
First, global diversificationaggressively expanding into
India, southeast Asia, latinAmerica setting up AI
infrastructure collaborationsthere spreading the risk.
Setting up AI infrastructurecollaborations there spreading
the risk.
Second, strengthening Westernties, doubling down on
relationships with the big UScloud providers AWS, azure,
(11:46):
google Cloud and European AIstartups too.
They're deploying advanced,higher margin products there,
like Blackwell Ultra andSpectrum XGS Ethernet.
Ida (11:54):
And China specifically.
How do you even operate therewith these export controls?
Allan (11:58):
What's fascinating is their adaptation.
They're developing thesecompliant chips, the B30A and
RTX 6,000D models.
Basically scale downperformance to meet regulations
but still maintain a presence.
News just came out actually setforth that samples of the B30A
might ship as early as thismonth, apparently priced at
twice the old H20 chip, ifapproved.
(12:18):
So, trying to capture valueeven with restrictions and
beyond hardware, they're pushingtheir software platforms CUA,
omniverse, ai Enterpriseglobally.
That creates recurring revenue,especially valuable where
hardware sales are limited.
It builds that ecosystemstickiness.
Ida (12:34):
It definitely sounds like a multi-pronged strategy.
Looking ahead, what are the keypotential catalysts that could
really move the needle forNVIDIA's stock in late 2025,
maybe into 2026?
Goldman Sachs highlighted three, I think.
Allan (12:46):
That's right.
Goldman Sachs flags three keythings for you to watch.
First, hyperscale data centerCapEx reports.
October 2025 is critical.
We'll hear from Amazon,alphabet, microsoft, meta about
their spending plans If thoseCapEx forecasts get revised
upward.
It signals continued strong AIinvestment.
You mentioned Meta projectingmaybe $72 billion, alphabet $85
(13:08):
billion.
A lot of that aimed atNVIDIA-powered data centers.
So watch those reports.
Ida (13:13):
Okay, so keep an eye on the big cloud guys spending in
October.
What's catalyst number two?
Allan (13:17):
The Rubin product timeline.
Rubin is the next big thingafter Blackwell, slated for the
second half of 2026.
It's using cutting edge techthree enemy to process HBM4
memory super powerful stuff forAI.
Nvidia has already reaffirmed asmooth transition, despite some
rumors of delays.
Any positive updates on Rubinwould definitely boost
confidence in their long-termtech lead.
And finally, catalyst 3 is justmore clarity on the China
(13:39):
business.
Any news on compliance marketdemand policy impacts that would
reduce a lot of the currentuncertainty.
Ida (13:44):
Makes sense.
So, given all this, thepotential catalyst, the risks,
the volatility what does it meanfor you as an investor?
What are some tradingstrategies or levels?
People are watching.
Allan (13:56):
Well, kindwell's technical analysis suggests some
key levels.
Profit taking seems likelybetween $172 and $184.
A strong move above $184 couldpotentially spark a push towards
$200 or even higher.
But if it falls below $172,that might trigger wider selling
.
For those thinking about buyingthe dip, the analysis suggests
(14:17):
looking near $172 or maybe moreaggressively down in the $155
range if it gets there.
It's also interesting thatoptions implied volatility.
Basically the market'sexpectation of future swings has
decreased since earnings.
That signals maybe coolingdemand for huge moves, but still
potential for short-term upsand downs.
It's a market needing carefulattention.
Ida (14:36):
Definitely sounds like a dynamic situation needing a
considered approach.
Okay, let's wrap up with a peekinto the crystal ball.
What kind of price predictionsare out there for NVIDIA End of
2025, maybe even way out to 2030.
Allan (14:47):
Predictions, as always, are all over the map.
It really shows how toughforecasting is for a company
like this.
For the end of 2025, you seeestimates ranging from maybe
$145 on the low end, to a morebullish $264, looking way out to
2030.
Well, things get reallyspeculative.
You see some incredibly bullishforecasts, like one Reddit user
(15:08):
projecting $750 per share basedon estimated sales hitting $700
billion across all theirmarkets.
That would imply a $20 trillionmarket cap.
Others are more conservativefor 2030, maybe in the $150 to
$500 range.
It just highlights the hugerange of possible outcomes
Massive continued dominanceversus more tempered growth as
competition increases.
Ida (15:29):
Wow $750 a share, $20 trillion market cap those are
definitely attention grabbingnumbers, even if highly
speculative.
Ok, as we wrap up this deepdive, let's quickly recap the
key takeaways.
We've seen the globalsemiconductor market making a
remarkable rebound, reallyfueled by that surging demand
for logic and memory chips,especially for data centers and
AI.
And NVIDIA is right at theheart of this, just dominant in
AI infrastructure, with a reallyrobust product pipeline.
Allan (15:51):
Right.
But we also dug into thatfascinating paradox Even stellar
earnings can get a lukewarmreaction when expectations are
through the roof.
Valuation concerns geopoliticalrisks like China.
These are real factors.
Yet NVIDIA isn't standing still.
They're strategically adapting,diversifying globally,
strengthening partnerships, evendeveloping compliant chips to
(16:13):
navigate those trickyregulations.
Ida (16:15):
Exactly so.
By understanding these dynamics, from the big market trends
down to one company strategiesand the nuances of investor
sentiment, you are now,hopefully, incredibly well
informed about this criticalsector that really powers so
much of our world.
Allan (16:30):
Now for that final provocative thought to leave you
with.
Given NVIDIA's relentlessinnovation and its push into so
many new areas, are we lookingat a future where computing is
basically the future of NVIDIA,or are we maybe on the cusp of a
more diversified AI landscapewhere new players start to
seriously challenge its currentdominance?
How will NVIDIA's ownaggressive adaptations actually
shape the next decade of tech?
Ida (16:51):
Something to definitely think about.
Thank you for joining us on theDeep Dive.
We hope this gave you a clearer, sharper view of the
semiconductor market andNVIDIA's AI future.
Until next time, keep diggingdeeper.
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com