June 4, 2025 • 36 mins
Welcome to the first edition of "Undercurrents," a new ongoing series in The Delegates Lounge podcast about the oceans and seas that unite us, and sometimes, divide us.
In this episode, we're joined by Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. He explains what's happening beneath the surface of maritime confrontations in the Baltic Sea.
Rising tensions have transformed this crucial waterway into a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia deploying military assets to escort its so-called "shadow fleet" of aging oil tankers. With approximately 60% of Russian oil exports traveling through Baltic waters, these maritime routes have become critical to Moscow's ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine.
The May incident involving the unflagged tanker "Jaguar," which later acquired a flag and changed names, exemplifies Russia's aggressive strategy. The incident quickly escalated to Russia violating Estonian airspace with a fighter jet. A week later, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations referred to "Baltic pirates" in a polemic during a UN Security Council session.
We caught up with Minister Pevkur right before this week's meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, so we also discussed NATO's defense spending and priorities.
Join us for this riveting conversation that navigates the choppy waters of Baltic security and explores how maritime tensions are reshaping the global security landscape. What happens in these northern waters could have ripple effects far beyond Europe's shores.
Subscribe to The Delegates Lounge for more critical insights into the maritime undercurrents shaping global politics, economics, and environmental security.
Speakers:
J. Alex Tarquinio (host) is a resident correspondent at the United Nations in New York and co-founder of The Delegates Lounge podcast. @alextarquinio of @delegateslounge on X and @thedelegateslounge on Instagram.
Hanno Pevkur (guest) is the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Estonia. He is an Estonian politician and lawyer who previously served as his country’s Minister of the Interior, Minister of Justice, and Minister of Social Affairs. @HPevkur of @MoD_Estonia on X.
Credits:
Music: Adobe Stock
Photos: Adobe Stock/Yaroslav. An oil tanker on the blue sea. Headshot (in some formats): Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Estonia.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (00:08):
Welcome to the Delegates Lounge.
Pull up a chair.
I'm Alex Tarquinio, ajournalist based at the United
Nations here in New York Cityand your emcee for this podcast
featuring some of the mostinfluential minds in the world
today.
Settle in for some rivetingtete-a-tete, available wherever
you listen to podcasts.
(00:29):
Welcome back.
You're joining the first episodeof our new ongoing series
called Undercurrents, about theoceans and seas that unite us
and sometimes divide us.
We're launching Undercurrentsright before the United Nations
(00:51):
World Oceans Day on June 8th.
In future episodes in thisseries, the Delegates Lounge
will explore the oceans from allangles.
In this episode, we're focusingon rising tensions in one
particular corner of our wateryworld the Baltic Sea.
Our guest today is particularlywell positioned to elucidate
this subject for us.
(01:15):
We caught up with EstonianDefense Minister Hanno Pevkur
right before the start of thisweek's Defense Minister's
meeting at NATO's headquartersin Brussels.
We last spoke with him on thesidelines of NATO's 75th
anniversary summit in Washingtonlast year.
A recent UN Security Councildebate exposed mounting friction
in the Baltic Sea.
Greece was chairing theSecurity Council in May and made
it clear well in advance thattheir signature event about
(01:37):
maritime security would be a toppriority.
The diplomatic envoys of Russiaand Estonia chose to focus on
an incident in the Baltic Seathe previous week involving an
unflagged tanker then called"Jaguar, although the ship
subsequently acquired a flagfrom the Comoros and changed its
name to Blint.
Here's a soundbite of theRussian ambassador expounding on
(01:58):
the incident through a UNsimultaneous translator.
Russia's UN Envoy, through (02:11):
This is why UNCLOS contains a closed
and rather limited list ofsituations in which a vessel
flying a foreign flag may bestopped for inspection.
You won't find, neither in thelist nor in the convention as a
whole, a single mention of theso-called Shadow Fleet.
We'd therefore like to remindyou, and remind the newly minted
Baltic pirates and their EUcheerleaders, that stopping a
(02:32):
vessel on any other grounds notlisted in the convention is, by
definition, a grave attack onthe freedom of navigation and
the right of peaceful passage ortransit passage.
J. Alex Tarquinio (02:51):
Later that afternoon, as you'll hear next,
estonia's representativedescribed the incident in minute
detail, while emphasizing hiscountry's duty, as a coastal
state, to protect the coastlineand undersea cables.
Estonia's UN representative (03:03):
On the 13th of May, a tanker named
Jaguar, without a flag andwithout insurance, entered the
Estonian economic zone.
The vessel refused Estonianauthorities' request to inspect
it in accordance with the UnitedNations Convention on the Law
of the Sea, which grants statesthe right to inspect ships
(03:24):
without a nationality.
While the vessel continued itsroute, a Russian fighter jet
deliberately violated Estonia'sairspace, escorting the vessel
to Russia's waters.
This dangerous incident provedin Turelia that there is a
clear-cut link between theShadow Fleet and Russia that
(03:46):
there is a clear-cut linkbetween the Shadow Fleet and
Russia.
J. Alex Tarquinio (03:50):
Maritime experts say the so-called Shadow
Fleet has been created tocircumvent sanctions and a price
cap on Russian energy exportsand has grown exponentially
since Russia launched itsfull-scale invasion of Ukraine
more than three years ago.
The ships described as beingpart of the Shadow Fleet are
often old and poorly maintainedtankers employed to transport
Russian oil, gas and petroleumproducts.
They may be uninsured, flaglessor flying a flag of convenience
(04:12):
.
In short, they are an accidentwaiting to happen.
Estimates vary widely as to thenumber of ships involved,
ranging from several hundred upto 2,000.
An expert we recentlyinterviewed for Undercurrents is
tracking around 700 of thesetankers, which are variously
described as the Shadow Fleet,the Dark Fleet, the Gray Fleet
(04:34):
or the Parallel Fleet, whateveryou call it.
Without this fleet, russia'swar economy would be seriously
diminished.
Yet this isn't the only threatto maritime security in the
Baltic Sea, where four underseacables have been damaged in
recent years.
Vital undersea infrastructurefor energy and communications
(04:54):
crisscrossing this sea, not tomention other strategic bodies
of water elsewhere in the world,are vulnerable to anchor
dragging or sea drones.
The rapid advances in dronetechnology create new risks
above, below and at thewaterline.
Minister Pevkur arrives inBrussels with a thorough
(05:15):
understanding that conflicts onland can be intertwined with the
oceans and seas.
Estonia's coastline, whichstretches along the Baltic Sea,
the Gulf of Finland and the Gulfof Riga, is longer than its
land borders with Latvia andRussia.
These waters have becomeincreasingly militarized in
recent weeks.
Since the Jaguar incident inMay, russia has been sending
(05:39):
naval escorts for tankers and itbriefly detained a Greek-owned
ship called the Green Admire.
We first spoke with MinisterPevkur before the June 4th
meeting of the Ukraine DefenseContact Group, known informally
as the Ramstein Group, stemmingfrom the first meeting held at
the U.
S.
Air Base in Ramstein, Germany,under the Biden administration.
(05:59):
The U.
S.
led this effort to arm Ukraine,but now the United Kingdom and
Germany have taken up the helm.
Indeed, us led this effort toarm Ukraine, but now the United
Kingdom and Germany have takenup the helm.
Indeed, us Defense SecretaryPete Hegseth has decided to skip
the meeting, although he willbe in Brussels the next day to
push the Allies to raise theirdefense spending to 5% of gross
domestic product, the GDP.
The NATO defense ministers willbe gathering around the table
(06:23):
on June 5th, ahead of the NATOleaders' meeting in the Hague
later this month, given that theEstonian defense minister is
currently in Brussels meetingwith his counterparts.
We went on to discuss NATO'sdefense spending and priorities.
Here's our conversation, Mr.
(06:46):
Minister.
Thank you so much for joiningus today in the Delegates'
Lounge.
We are honored to have you.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian De (06:53):
Well, thank you very much for
inviting me.
J. Alex Tarquinio (06:54):
Minister, in recent weeks, we've seen a
dramatic escalation of maritimetensions in the Baltic Sea and
Gulf of Finland, with Russia nowemploying warships and fighter
jets to escort its so-calledshadow fleet or dark fleet,
however you want to refer to itand Estonia has consequently
been redirecting some maritimetraffic away from traditionally
(07:16):
safe routes.
How does Estonia assess therisk of escalation and what
actions are you taking to ensurethe safety of shipping in these
congested and increasinglymilitarized waters?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (07:27):
Well , first of all, for decades
we've been living in anenvironment where we knew that
sea is a safe environment andthe seabed is a safe environment
.
Unfortunately, in the lastcouple of years we've seen that
Russia is using also seabed andthe sea for different type of
(07:52):
actions.
Let's say we cannot saydirectly attacks, because we
still are in the investigationprocess.
Or two weeks ago we saw thatthey brought it to the new level
that they used also theirmilitary assets to escort one of
these Shadow Fleet vessels intoRussian waters, and also
(08:15):
they've been very, let's say,provocative with different
assets towards differentcountries.
So we saw some of the actionsagainst Latvia and Venezuela, we
saw that they were circulatingin the Polish waters and in many
other cases on the Baltic Sea.
We've seen that they are veryhostile, are we concerned.
(08:38):
So I would say that we arepragmatic, that we are
monitoring very closely all thevessels, especially those
vessels which are in the list ofthe Shadow Fleet, and, of
course, if needed, we will takethe actions.
And also we raise that questionon the international level,
because, at the end of the day,we are all responsible for the
(09:01):
safe sailing, for theenvironmental questions and, of
course, for the connections,because connections are the ones
which are very important forall the countries, not only here
in the Baltics.
J. Alex Tarquinio (09:15):
There's been some mixed reporting on the
recent Jaguar incident.
Did Estonia attempt to boardthe unflagged vessel off your
coast, and was that accessdenied?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defens (09:25):
I can confirm that this was a
Russian propaganda, that we hadan attempt to go on board.
We didn't go.
We didn't attempt, we didn'thave a wish to go on board.
We contacted the vessel, as themaritime law says.
The UNCLOS article I think it's110, says very clearly that if
(09:49):
the vessel doesn't have a flag,there is a need to respond and
to check this.
So this is exactly what we didand when we saw that there is no
threat, also to our criticalinfrastructure, then we just
escorted that ship out of theEstonian waters.
So there was no intention to goon board and this is purely
(10:09):
Russian propaganda.
J. Alex Tarquinio (10:11):
Well, in fact , during the recent UN Security
Council open debate on maritimesecurity on May 20th, I noted
the Russian ambassador'sreference to quote-unquote
Baltic pirates and his challengeto the legitimacy of sanctions
against the Shadow Fleet.
He said this wasn't explicitlydefined as unclosed the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea.
(10:31):
So perhaps this is where a lotof the story about attempting to
board the Jaguar originated.
What's your response to that?
For example, that narrowreading of the definition of
maritime law?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defe (10:45):
For example, that narrow reading of
the definition of maritime law.
Well, I also suggest Russiansto read the UNCLOS and it says
very clearly that if the flag,or if the vessel doesn't have
the flag, there is a right forthe military vessels or for the
border vessels to approach and,if necessary, also to go on
(11:06):
board.
We didn't do that because wedidn't see that it's necessary,
because our main goal is toprotect the critical
infrastructure.
But nevertheless the safesailing is something we care
about a lot and internationallywe have to take care of that.
When somebody is saying pirates,then the pirates are Russians
(11:29):
because they are using theunflagged and sanctioned vessels
to export their oil out ofRussia and using for that the
Baltic Sea.
60% of the Russian oil goesthrough the Baltic Sea.
And when we take also theenvironmental question, then
(11:51):
most of these sanctioned vesselshave very bad condition and
when we take this condition,then we all understand that even
the environmental risk is hugewhat these vessels pose to the
Baltic countries and to the seaenvironment.
So this is why my suggestion toeveryone, using also this
(12:13):
opportunity of registering thosevessels, not to do that,
because also when we take thisjaguar case when it came into
our waters.
Then when we take this Jaguarcase, when it came into our
waters then just before thatthey basically were, I don't
know, thrown out or they weremissing the flag.
We all understand that thereare different factors we have to
(12:37):
take care of.
Also this Jaguar case.
Then when they arrived Russianwaters, then then miraculously
they found a new country whichwas not Gabon but was Gormoz,
and then they had a new flag.
So when they started to travelback from Russia then they had
already a new name for thevessel, which was Blink, not
(13:00):
Jaguar anymore, and they had anew flag not Jaguar anymore, and
they had a new flag.
So that means that you knowthere are still countries in the
world who are giving veryeasily the flags and take the
responsibility of the ShadowFleet together with Russia.
J. Alex Tarquinio (13:14):
Yeah, you're talking about flag hopping there
, which is interesting, but thelaw of the sea UNCLOS it's
really based on the right ofinnocent passage, the idea that
the ship can sail by yourcoastline as long as it's not
stopping and still have a rightof innocent passage.
The idea that the ship can sailby your coastline as long as
it's not stopping and still havea right of innocent passage.
But given the technologicaladvancements I mean drones could
take off from ships in a matterof seconds Does that still make
(13:37):
sense?
The right of innocent passageDoes it still hold relevance in
the current context?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (13:47):
it still hold relevance in the
current context.
Well, as I see it, of course wehave to look what we can do
internationally, but we alsohave to understand that UNCLOS
is not the convention whichregulates Baltic Sea.
It regulates all the world seasand this is why it's not just
that that we will just changethe UN clause for that, but
definitely this is the questionfor international community how
(14:09):
to regulate this, especiallylooking at the security point of
view and looking at the defensepoint of view that we need to
defend our countries, and ifthere is a threat to our
national security, if there is athreat to our integrity and
independence, then there shouldbe a possibility also to act.
(14:32):
And this is exactly what weneed to discuss internationally.
J. Alex Tarquinio (14:37):
Well, of course, Jaguar, there was an
escalation also because Russiadid violate your airspace
briefly, for about a minute, butit was with a fighter jet.
And this is not even the mostrecent incident, by the way.
Since then there's been theGreen and Meyer incident.
Will you ask your counterpartsto invoke Article 4 of NATO to
(14:57):
request consultations,especially regarding Russia's
recent airspace violation?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (15:04):
No , we are not planning to start
Article 4, because we allunderstand that Russia is
testing the threshold of Article4, article 5 all the time, but
we are calm and we have to keepourselves calm and to react
proportionally.
So, as I said, we've seen inthe last weeks and months many
(15:27):
different attempts where Russiais testing us and of course, we
all understand that you cannotreact or overreact to every
incident.
J. Alex Tarquinio (15:39):
Does the Shadow Fleet raise questions,
though, about the effectivenessof financial sanctions imposed
on Russia If there's willingnessby other entities to assist
Moscow in evading thosesanctions?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (15:53):
Well , this is why we are also
discussing about the newsanction packages.
This is why we are alsodiscussing the secondary
sanctions and of course, we haveto understand that those
sanctions are imposed byEuropean Union, united States
and Canada and the UnitedKingdom, but there are still
(16:16):
many countries in the world whoare ready to cooperate with
Russia.
So it's rather the questionthat what is the role of the
United Nations?
When we take also the ownclause, then this is the
convention which was approved bythe United Nations.
When you take also the ownclause, then this is the
convention which was approved bythe United Nations.
So, unfortunately, we see thatthere are not many, you know,
(16:37):
actions or steps foreseen by theUnited Nations and there are
many countries who are stillsupporting Russia.
So this is why, of course, wewill continue our work also
towards this that we will havebetter understanding what that
war in Ukraine which isconducted by Russia really means
and what are the consequencesof that war, russian oil, gas
(17:05):
and petroleum products, possiblyfrom the shadow fleet, possibly
evading even these price caps,if they do ship to ship
transfers at sea, for example.
J. Alex Tarquinio (17:17):
Those countries are under some
criticism, but are you arguingfor secondary sanctions, and is
that something that you arebringing to the European Union?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (17:28):
Well , our minister of foreign
Affairs is dealing with that.
It's not the direct matter ofthe Minister of Defense, but
nevertheless we all understandthat it's not only Estonian wish
(17:50):
or Baltic countries wish or theNordic Baltic wish.
So we have to be very clearhere that this is an
international question and it'sabout the rules of law and it's
about the rules-based world,Ukraine.
And when we take also thevotings in the United Nations,
then we see that there arecountries who are pro-Russia,
(18:15):
and we also understand that.
You know, against UN principles, against those values we
consider to be important,against this, Many countries are
still in favor of Russia.
So it's a long way to persuadeand to convince every country
(18:35):
that Russia is conducting a warof aggression in Ukraine and of
course we will continue doingthat.
J. Alex Tarquinio (18:44):
So criticism may not be enough if the country
agrees with Russia, but whatabout the other countries
perhaps giving aid?
You mentioned the flag statesand the flag hopping between
states.
Should flag states be moreactively weeding out the shadow
fleet or denying flags to them?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian (19:06):
denying flags to them.
Of course I would like to seethat no country will issue the
flag for the vessels listed inthe sanctions list or the shadow
fleet list.
But the reality is that we evendo not have all the vessels
which we know that are part ofthe shadow fleet listed in the
(19:26):
sanctions list of the EuropeanUnion or United Kingdom.
So still, we need to work onthat.
It's not the one day resultwhat we can achieve, so we will
continue pushing for that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (19:38):
of course, Now you raise a good point.
What about the potentialinvolvement of Western companies
in the formation of the shadowfleet?
I mean you mentioned that somecountries obviously have sided
with Russia or remain neutral inthe formation of the shadow
fleet.
I mean you mentioned that somecountries obviously have sided
with russia or remain neutral inthe un general assembly.
But what about those that havevoted with ukraine?
But they still have companiesthat, for example, are selling
(20:00):
older vessels to russia, providethe provision of equipment and
services to the shadow fleet.
Does that require more scrutiny?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (20:10):
Well , to be very honest, you know, I
believe that every country whois doing that has to answer to
these questions.
We know that Russia should bealso take under the
responsibility, or Russia shouldtake the responsibility also
about the shadow fleet, becausethey are using it unlawfully to
export its oil to the world.
(20:33):
But again, there are too manyplayers to answer all these
questions.
It's not only the countries,it's also different
organizations like OPEC whichcan make certain steps, make
certain steps.
So, as I said, we're lookingfor these options on diplomatic
(20:54):
level and we're trying to seewhat we can do more.
J. Alex Tarquinio (20:56):
Now speaking of the diplomatic level, with
the US, uk and EU havingdistinct, sometimes overlapping,
sanction regimes on individualships in the shadow fleet and
there's some disagreement as tohow many.
There are 300, 500, 700.
It depends on who you ask.
But does this structure of theoverlapping sanctions, does that
(21:17):
enhance or diminish the overallpressure on Russia?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (21:21):
Well , my understanding is very clear
that the United Kingdom, unitedStates and European Union can
work more closely here together,and our aim should be very,
very clear Every vessel whichUkraine has identified as a
shadow fleet vessel should beunder these sanctions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (21:39):
There's the sanctions, but then there's also
the pressure that's beenapplied through the frozen
Russian assets estimates of 200,300 billion in Europe.
Russian assets estimates of 200to 300 billion in Europe.
Simply having those frozenassets implies some pressure on
Russia.
Once you use them, you nolonger have them.
Of course, you can't have yourcake and eat it too, but what
(21:59):
would Estonia like to see donewith them?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian De (22:02):
We've been very clear, of course,
here all the time that as Russiahas to take the responsibility
of all these damages and crimes,then the frozen assets as
Russia has to take theresponsibility of all these
damages and crimes, then thefrozen assets should be given to
Ukraine and they should usethem as they need to use them Is
it for defending the country orrebuild the country.
So reparations and restorationsare an important step also to
(22:27):
go through during the peacenegotiations and, of course, we
have been always supporting thatthe frozen assets should be
used for Ukraine.
J. Alex Tarquinio (22:39):
But is that in the prosecution of the
fighting of the war?
Or do you want to see them helduntil the end of the war and
then used for reconstruction?
Or do you want to see them as abargaining chip, perhaps at the
end of the war?
In other words, spend now orsave for later?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (22:58):
Well , it's not worth bargaining when
you don't have the control overthem.
So I would say that we shouldrelease them as soon as possible
, or as much as we can forUkraine, and then it's up to
Ukraine to decide what to dowith this money.
So this is the easiest way tohandle this situation.
J. Alex Tarquinio (23:17):
I see.
So release them to Ukraine andlet Ukraine decide whether
they're best bent on immediatewar needs.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian (23:25):
Because we've used the meaningful
profit from the frozen assets todeliver the ammunition.
So we've done that already,basically that we've used the
interest of the frozen assets tohelp around 50 billion a year.
When we talk about 300 billion,then this would have given a
(23:53):
huge chance for Ukraine for along time ago already to win the
war and even to restore thecountry.
J. Alex Tarquinio (24:01):
And when you say we, you're talking about the
European Union.
Yes, In light of the success ofOperation Spiderweb, obviously
a hugely audacious plan andexecution, but now you know that
we reflect on it.
Does this indicate a broadervulnerability in countries with
advanced weapon systems from thelow cost drone technology
(24:24):
technology?
Is Estonia worried about this,I mean, given the neighborhood
that you're in, and also, isthis something that you expect
to be discussing over the next?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian D (24:37):
couple of days at the DATOM, a defense
ministers meeting in Brussels.
Well, first of all, we have newregional plans and we have
defense plans for NATO.
Secondly, we've decided toinvest a lot more into defence
and we are giving all we can todefend our country, defend our
nation.
And I believe that you know thebiggest topic for the next
(25:00):
couple of weeks will be insideof NATO how we can reach the new
level of defense spendingsinside of NATO, because the new
defense plans and also thecapability targets are exactly
for that, because it's not onlyabout the percentage but it's
about the capabilities.
And to achieve thesecapabilities, we need to have
(25:21):
more money.
So Estonia is very clear here.
So we need to invest more.
We need to do it very quickly,not to take a lot of time for
that.
So this will be the main focusfor upcoming weeks.
J. Alex Tarquinio (25:35):
What does Estonia consider an appropriate
target?
Obviously, you spend one of themost of any of the NATO
countries, but some of thecountries haven't even gotten to
2%.
Are you going to push yourcounterparts at NATO for 3.5%,
5%, some other figure?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (25:55):
Well , we know the target.
It was said by President Trumpsome months ago and he said very
clearly that NATO should investat least 5%.
Estonia will do that alreadynext year.
We will not take five or tenyears for that and we will go
from basically 3.3 level to 5.4level already in one year.
(26:15):
So we will increase our defensespendings more in one year as
many have in the last years.
So it's not a question.
As I said, yes, the 5% shouldbe the goal, but we also
understand that to reach that,we just need to see of that what
(26:36):
the capabilities are, what weneed to have to defend our
countries, to defend thealliance, and when we calculate
the capabilities cost, then wewill see that even 3% is not
enough.
So this is why, of course, weare pushing the highest number
we can get from the Hague and ofcourse we would be happy to see
(26:57):
5%.
But then when it's 3.5, ofcourse we will not fight against
3.5.
But we would like to see thatit will go higher, as President
Trump also has said, to 5%.
J. Alex Tarquinio (27:10):
So you concur with the 5% target.
It's already something you planto do as a NATO member.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defe (27:18):
Not only to plan to do, but we will
do that.
So this is a difference, so weare not discussing that anymore.
It is decided and we will go to5.4% next year.
J. Alex Tarquinio (27:29):
Now, what's more important though?
The actual target figure or howthe money is spent, because
it's a big difference, of course, if it's spent, for example, on
personnel or weapons systems,and perhaps also the choice of
weapons systems expensive, orwe've been talking about some
low cost, newer technologies.
Is it more important howlow-cost newer technologies?
Is it more important how themoney is spent, or is it simply
(27:51):
important now just to getgovernment's budgeting to get to
that higher figure?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (27:57):
As I said, it's about the
capabilities, and it isimportant to understand that
these capabilities are not takenfrom the clouds.
These capabilities have beenput on paper by the SACEUR and
his team and have been verycarefully calculated and very
carefully selected.
(28:17):
What do we need to have todefend the alliance and and to
give the best security guaranteefor our people?
So when all the countries willagree in in two days in nado in
brussels on defense capabilities, then we all have also the
targets where to invest themoney.
(28:38):
That means also personnel.
That means also personnel.
That means also new equipment.
That means also the newemerging techs.
So this is everything we need,and of course, we know that
there are some capabilitieswhich need more money and some
capabilities which you canacquire more quickly.
So it's a mix of everything.
(29:01):
But, as I said, it is importantto have the political
commitment that the defensespending will go up and then the
defense and the military peoplecan already start acquiring
these capabilities which areneeded for regional plans.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:21):
Minister with a recurring pattern of Russia's
large-scale Zapad exercises.
Obviously, 2021 came rightbefore the full-scale invasion
of Ukraine and now we're back inthat cycle and looking at Zapad
2025 in September.
Is NATO concerned about theupcoming exercises and,
(29:43):
specifically, is the Estoniandefense minister?
Is your country concerned, andwhat actions do you think you
should be taking to mitigatethis?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (29:54):
Well , I would say that it's the same
with the criticalinfrastructure, that we are not
concerned.
We are monitoring the situationvery closely.
We of course have to understandthat there will be more talks
than actions by the Russians.
They will use the propaganda alot to show that they are doing
a lot, but at least what we knowat the moment that the number
(30:20):
of troops will not be so high asmaybe in the previous ZAPAD
exercises.
So let's see how it goes.
But nevertheless, we areprepared and we are always ready
to defend our country ifnecessary.
But just to remind you also,NATO has exercises all the time.
We have at the moment on theBaltic Sea, the exercise Baltops
(30:43):
.
We just finished a couple ofweeks ago a huge exercise, the
Hedgehog, here in Estonia, with16,000 troops, 6,000 allies.
We had many other exercises inLatvia, Lithuania, in Poland.
So the exercises are a normalpart of the militaries and this
(31:05):
is exactly how we should take it.
Of course, we are monitoringvery closely what Russia is
doing, because Russia is doingthat together with Belarus.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:13):
The only reason to perhaps look at them
more closely is the pattern of2021 and the invasion of 2022.
But so, in other words, it'ssomething that NATO should
monitor, but it's consideredpart of the routine of military
exercises of the differentalliances.
Is that fair?
Yes, okay, speaking of yourmeetings in Brussels, ahead of
(31:35):
the NATO defense minister'smeeting on Thursday, you'll be
attending the Ukraine contactgroup meeting.
Can you tell us a little bitabout what you anticipate as an
outcome?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (31:47):
Well , first and foremost, we have to
show the solidarity withUkrainians and to show our
support to them, and then, ofcourse, to continue our military
assistance to Ukraine, becausethey need it every day.
Resistance to Ukraine, becausethey need it every day.
We have our own plans for theyear and I believe that it is
important to listen also tofeedback from Ukrainians from
(32:12):
Istanbul, and then let's seewhat the conclusion will be.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:25):
But nevertheless, there is a clear
understanding that the Europeans, together with Ukraine, and we,
will help Ukraine also in thefuture.
Obviously, this process beganas the Ramstein group that met
under the Biden administration.
It's evolved quite a bit, shallwe say, and it's no longer
explicitly led by the UnitedStates.
How has it evolved, and doesthat have any implications for
(32:46):
the overall effort?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (32:49):
It is good that we have different
countries involved, that Germanyand the United Kingdom are
taking more responsibility.
It is good that we have thedifferent coalitions.
Estonia is leading the ITcoalition, Our good friends
Latvians are leading the dronecoalition, and this is exactly
how it should be that we willfind the strengths of each
(33:09):
country and we will use them insake of Ukrainians and in the
best way how to help Ukrainians.
So, of course, I would like tosee more involvement from the
United States.
Of course we will discuss andwe will see also in the future
more and more solidarity amongthe European countries and also
(33:33):
the joint help of what we aresending to Ukraine.
J. Alex Tarquinio (33:38):
Those coalitions are very interesting.
I assume the drone coalition isinvolved in raising drones to
donate to Ukraine.
Those coalitions are veryinteresting.
I assume the drone coalition isinvolved in raising drones to
donate to Ukraine, or maybelooking at drone technology.
You mentioned Estonia is partof the IT coalition.
Estonia is very tech savvy.
I think it's not anexaggeration to say that your
country punches above its weightin technology, but in terms of
(33:58):
the size of your population andthe number of people who are
very tech savvy and actually Ispoke about this with your
foreign minister when he was atthe United Nations in September
about advances you had made theIT coalition is that working on
cybersecurity or is that workingon actual physical tech that
you are donating to Ukraine, orall of the above?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (34:19):
We have a very clear plan what we
are doing with Ukrainians.
Of course, we will not go intodetails.
We've collected more or less 1billion of assets for Ukrainians
through this IT coalition, andthen we have specified also the
areas of work where we will helpthem in the IT sector and cyber
(34:40):
field.
So of course, we will not covereverything, but this is exactly
why we have established thatcoalition to be and to help
Ukrainians exactly in thesespecific fields where our help
is most needed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (34:54):
Now last year , at the 75th anniversary of
NATO in the Washington summit,the declaration referred to
China as a decisive enabler,specifically because of the
technology the drones and alsothe dual-use technology that
Russia got from China.
Is that still the case, and isthat something that NATO is
(35:17):
still monitoring?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (35:19):
NATO is monitoring all the time
different actions not only byRussians but also by China, and
of course, we see that Russia isusing Chinese technology in
Ukraine.
So it's not a news to anyoneand of course, we are keeping
(35:39):
the eyes very close to that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (35:43):
Thank you, Mr Minister, for joining us today
in the Delegates' Lounge.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
Thank you very much.
See you again.
Frank Radford (35:54):
And that's it from the Delegates' Lounge.
We'd like to thank our esteemedguests, who have graciously
allowed us to share theirhard-earned insights into what
really matters.
And then there's you, ourlisteners, who we hope are
sufficiently edified to clamorfor more of the same.
Do drop in for a weekly episodeon Thursday, or, from time to
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there'll be a bonus episode.
Subscribe wherever you listento podcasts and, if you like
(36:17):
what you've heard, please take amoment to rate or review the
show, as it helps others whoshare your abiding interest in
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You can connect with us on manypopular social media platforms
or reach out to us directly atinfothedelicatesloungecom.
We're a small team so we can'trespond to every message, but we
will read them.
Our show this week was writtenand produced by the host and by
(36:38):
yours truly executive producer,frank radford.
Until next time, keep calm andcurious.
Welcome to the Delegates Lounge.
Pull up a chair.
I'm Alex Tarquinio, ajournalist based at the United
Nations here in New York Cityand your emcee for this podcast
featuring some of the mostinfluential minds in the world
today.
Settle in for some rivetingtete-a-tete, available wherever
you listen to podcasts.
(00:29):
Welcome back.
You're joining the first episodeof our new ongoing series
called Undercurrents, about theoceans and seas that unite us
and sometimes divide us.
We're launching Undercurrentsright before the United Nations
(00:51):
World Oceans Day on June 8th.
In future episodes in thisseries, the Delegates Lounge
will explore the oceans from allangles.
In this episode, we're focusingon rising tensions in one
particular corner of our wateryworld the Baltic Sea.
Our guest today is particularlywell positioned to elucidate
this subject for us.
(01:15):
We caught up with EstonianDefense Minister Hanno Pevkur
right before the start of thisweek's Defense Minister's
meeting at NATO's headquartersin Brussels.
We last spoke with him on thesidelines of NATO's 75th
anniversary summit in Washingtonlast year.
A recent UN Security Councildebate exposed mounting friction
in the Baltic Sea.
Greece was chairing theSecurity Council in May and made
it clear well in advance thattheir signature event about
(01:37):
maritime security would be a toppriority.
The diplomatic envoys of Russiaand Estonia chose to focus on
an incident in the Baltic Seathe previous week involving an
unflagged tanker then called"Jaguar, although the ship
subsequently acquired a flagfrom the Comoros and changed its
name to Blint.
Here's a soundbite of theRussian ambassador expounding on
(01:58):
the incident through a UNsimultaneous translator.
Russia's UN Envoy, through (02:11):
This is why UNCLOS contains a closed
and rather limited list ofsituations in which a vessel
flying a foreign flag may bestopped for inspection.
You won't find, neither in thelist nor in the convention as a
whole, a single mention of theso-called Shadow Fleet.
We'd therefore like to remindyou, and remind the newly minted
Baltic pirates and their EUcheerleaders, that stopping a
(02:32):
vessel on any other grounds notlisted in the convention is, by
definition, a grave attack onthe freedom of navigation and
the right of peaceful passage ortransit passage.
J. Alex Tarquinio (02:51):
Later that afternoon, as you'll hear next,
estonia's representativedescribed the incident in minute
detail, while emphasizing hiscountry's duty, as a coastal
state, to protect the coastlineand undersea cables.
Estonia's UN representative (03:03):
On the 13th of May, a tanker named
Jaguar, without a flag andwithout insurance, entered the
Estonian economic zone.
The vessel refused Estonianauthorities' request to inspect
it in accordance with the UnitedNations Convention on the Law
of the Sea, which grants statesthe right to inspect ships
(03:24):
without a nationality.
While the vessel continued itsroute, a Russian fighter jet
deliberately violated Estonia'sairspace, escorting the vessel
to Russia's waters.
This dangerous incident provedin Turelia that there is a
clear-cut link between theShadow Fleet and Russia that
(03:46):
there is a clear-cut linkbetween the Shadow Fleet and
Russia.
J. Alex Tarquinio (03:50):
Maritime experts say the so-called Shadow
Fleet has been created tocircumvent sanctions and a price
cap on Russian energy exportsand has grown exponentially
since Russia launched itsfull-scale invasion of Ukraine
more than three years ago.
The ships described as beingpart of the Shadow Fleet are
often old and poorly maintainedtankers employed to transport
Russian oil, gas and petroleumproducts.
They may be uninsured, flaglessor flying a flag of convenience
(04:12):
.
In short, they are an accidentwaiting to happen.
Estimates vary widely as to thenumber of ships involved,
ranging from several hundred upto 2,000.
An expert we recentlyinterviewed for Undercurrents is
tracking around 700 of thesetankers, which are variously
described as the Shadow Fleet,the Dark Fleet, the Gray Fleet
(04:34):
or the Parallel Fleet, whateveryou call it.
Without this fleet, russia'swar economy would be seriously
diminished.
Yet this isn't the only threatto maritime security in the
Baltic Sea, where four underseacables have been damaged in
recent years.
Vital undersea infrastructurefor energy and communications
(04:54):
crisscrossing this sea, not tomention other strategic bodies
of water elsewhere in the world,are vulnerable to anchor
dragging or sea drones.
The rapid advances in dronetechnology create new risks
above, below and at thewaterline.
Minister Pevkur arrives inBrussels with a thorough
(05:15):
understanding that conflicts onland can be intertwined with the
oceans and seas.
Estonia's coastline, whichstretches along the Baltic Sea,
the Gulf of Finland and the Gulfof Riga, is longer than its
land borders with Latvia andRussia.
These waters have becomeincreasingly militarized in
recent weeks.
Since the Jaguar incident inMay, russia has been sending
(05:39):
naval escorts for tankers and itbriefly detained a Greek-owned
ship called the Green Admire.
We first spoke with MinisterPevkur before the June 4th
meeting of the Ukraine DefenseContact Group, known informally
as the Ramstein Group, stemmingfrom the first meeting held at
the U.
S.
Air Base in Ramstein, Germany,under the Biden administration.
(05:59):
The U.
S.
led this effort to arm Ukraine,but now the United Kingdom and
Germany have taken up the helm.
Indeed, us led this effort toarm Ukraine, but now the United
Kingdom and Germany have takenup the helm.
Indeed, us Defense SecretaryPete Hegseth has decided to skip
the meeting, although he willbe in Brussels the next day to
push the Allies to raise theirdefense spending to 5% of gross
domestic product, the GDP.
The NATO defense ministers willbe gathering around the table
(06:23):
on June 5th, ahead of the NATOleaders' meeting in the Hague
later this month, given that theEstonian defense minister is
currently in Brussels meetingwith his counterparts.
We went on to discuss NATO'sdefense spending and priorities.
Here's our conversation, Mr.
(06:46):
Minister.
Thank you so much for joiningus today in the Delegates'
Lounge.
We are honored to have you.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian De (06:53):
Well, thank you very much for
inviting me.
J. Alex Tarquinio (06:54):
Minister, in recent weeks, we've seen a
dramatic escalation of maritimetensions in the Baltic Sea and
Gulf of Finland, with Russia nowemploying warships and fighter
jets to escort its so-calledshadow fleet or dark fleet,
however you want to refer to itand Estonia has consequently
been redirecting some maritimetraffic away from traditionally
(07:16):
safe routes.
How does Estonia assess therisk of escalation and what
actions are you taking to ensurethe safety of shipping in these
congested and increasinglymilitarized waters?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (07:27):
Well , first of all, for decades
we've been living in anenvironment where we knew that
sea is a safe environment andthe seabed is a safe environment
.
Unfortunately, in the lastcouple of years we've seen that
Russia is using also seabed andthe sea for different type of
(07:52):
actions.
Let's say we cannot saydirectly attacks, because we
still are in the investigationprocess.
Or two weeks ago we saw thatthey brought it to the new level
that they used also theirmilitary assets to escort one of
these Shadow Fleet vessels intoRussian waters, and also
(08:15):
they've been very, let's say,provocative with different
assets towards differentcountries.
So we saw some of the actionsagainst Latvia and Venezuela, we
saw that they were circulatingin the Polish waters and in many
other cases on the Baltic Sea.
We've seen that they are veryhostile, are we concerned.
(08:38):
So I would say that we arepragmatic, that we are
monitoring very closely all thevessels, especially those
vessels which are in the list ofthe Shadow Fleet, and, of
course, if needed, we will takethe actions.
And also we raise that questionon the international level,
because, at the end of the day,we are all responsible for the
(09:01):
safe sailing, for theenvironmental questions and, of
course, for the connections,because connections are the ones
which are very important forall the countries, not only here
in the Baltics.
J. Alex Tarquinio (09:15):
There's been some mixed reporting on the
recent Jaguar incident.
Did Estonia attempt to boardthe unflagged vessel off your
coast, and was that accessdenied?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defens (09:25):
I can confirm that this was a
Russian propaganda, that we hadan attempt to go on board.
We didn't go.
We didn't attempt, we didn'thave a wish to go on board.
We contacted the vessel, as themaritime law says.
The UNCLOS article I think it's110, says very clearly that if
(09:49):
the vessel doesn't have a flag,there is a need to respond and
to check this.
So this is exactly what we didand when we saw that there is no
threat, also to our criticalinfrastructure, then we just
escorted that ship out of theEstonian waters.
So there was no intention to goon board and this is purely
(10:09):
Russian propaganda.
J. Alex Tarquinio (10:11):
Well, in fact , during the recent UN Security
Council open debate on maritimesecurity on May 20th, I noted
the Russian ambassador'sreference to quote-unquote
Baltic pirates and his challengeto the legitimacy of sanctions
against the Shadow Fleet.
He said this wasn't explicitlydefined as unclosed the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea.
(10:31):
So perhaps this is where a lotof the story about attempting to
board the Jaguar originated.
What's your response to that?
For example, that narrowreading of the definition of
maritime law?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defe (10:45):
For example, that narrow reading of
the definition of maritime law.
Well, I also suggest Russiansto read the UNCLOS and it says
very clearly that if the flag,or if the vessel doesn't have
the flag, there is a right forthe military vessels or for the
border vessels to approach and,if necessary, also to go on
(11:06):
board.
We didn't do that because wedidn't see that it's necessary,
because our main goal is toprotect the critical
infrastructure.
But nevertheless the safesailing is something we care
about a lot and internationallywe have to take care of that.
When somebody is saying pirates,then the pirates are Russians
(11:29):
because they are using theunflagged and sanctioned vessels
to export their oil out ofRussia and using for that the
Baltic Sea.
60% of the Russian oil goesthrough the Baltic Sea.
And when we take also theenvironmental question, then
(11:51):
most of these sanctioned vesselshave very bad condition and
when we take this condition,then we all understand that even
the environmental risk is hugewhat these vessels pose to the
Baltic countries and to the seaenvironment.
So this is why my suggestion toeveryone, using also this
(12:13):
opportunity of registering thosevessels, not to do that,
because also when we take thisjaguar case when it came into
our waters.
Then when we take this Jaguarcase, when it came into our
waters then just before thatthey basically were, I don't
know, thrown out or they weremissing the flag.
We all understand that thereare different factors we have to
(12:37):
take care of.
Also this Jaguar case.
Then when they arrived Russianwaters, then then miraculously
they found a new country whichwas not Gabon but was Gormoz,
and then they had a new flag.
So when they started to travelback from Russia then they had
already a new name for thevessel, which was Blink, not
(13:00):
Jaguar anymore, and they had anew flag not Jaguar anymore, and
they had a new flag.
So that means that you knowthere are still countries in the
world who are giving veryeasily the flags and take the
responsibility of the ShadowFleet together with Russia.
J. Alex Tarquinio (13:14):
Yeah, you're talking about flag hopping there
, which is interesting, but thelaw of the sea UNCLOS it's
really based on the right ofinnocent passage, the idea that
the ship can sail by yourcoastline as long as it's not
stopping and still have a rightof innocent passage.
The idea that the ship can sailby your coastline as long as
it's not stopping and still havea right of innocent passage.
But given the technologicaladvancements I mean drones could
take off from ships in a matterof seconds Does that still make
(13:37):
sense?
The right of innocent passageDoes it still hold relevance in
the current context?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (13:47):
it still hold relevance in the
current context.
Well, as I see it, of course wehave to look what we can do
internationally, but we alsohave to understand that UNCLOS
is not the convention whichregulates Baltic Sea.
It regulates all the world seasand this is why it's not just
that that we will just changethe UN clause for that, but
definitely this is the questionfor international community how
(14:09):
to regulate this, especiallylooking at the security point of
view and looking at the defensepoint of view that we need to
defend our countries, and ifthere is a threat to our
national security, if there is athreat to our integrity and
independence, then there shouldbe a possibility also to act.
(14:32):
And this is exactly what weneed to discuss internationally.
J. Alex Tarquinio (14:37):
Well, of course, Jaguar, there was an
escalation also because Russiadid violate your airspace
briefly, for about a minute, butit was with a fighter jet.
And this is not even the mostrecent incident, by the way.
Since then there's been theGreen and Meyer incident.
Will you ask your counterpartsto invoke Article 4 of NATO to
(14:57):
request consultations,especially regarding Russia's
recent airspace violation?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (15:04):
No , we are not planning to start
Article 4, because we allunderstand that Russia is
testing the threshold of Article4, article 5 all the time, but
we are calm and we have to keepourselves calm and to react
proportionally.
So, as I said, we've seen inthe last weeks and months many
(15:27):
different attempts where Russiais testing us and of course, we
all understand that you cannotreact or overreact to every
incident.
J. Alex Tarquinio (15:39):
Does the Shadow Fleet raise questions,
though, about the effectivenessof financial sanctions imposed
on Russia If there's willingnessby other entities to assist
Moscow in evading thosesanctions?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (15:53):
Well , this is why we are also
discussing about the newsanction packages.
This is why we are alsodiscussing the secondary
sanctions and of course, we haveto understand that those
sanctions are imposed byEuropean Union, united States
and Canada and the UnitedKingdom, but there are still
(16:16):
many countries in the world whoare ready to cooperate with
Russia.
So it's rather the questionthat what is the role of the
United Nations?
When we take also the ownclause, then this is the
convention which was approved bythe United Nations.
When you take also the ownclause, then this is the
convention which was approved bythe United Nations.
So, unfortunately, we see thatthere are not many, you know,
(16:37):
actions or steps foreseen by theUnited Nations and there are
many countries who are stillsupporting Russia.
So this is why, of course, wewill continue our work also
towards this that we will havebetter understanding what that
war in Ukraine which isconducted by Russia really means
and what are the consequencesof that war, russian oil, gas
(17:05):
and petroleum products, possiblyfrom the shadow fleet, possibly
evading even these price caps,if they do ship to ship
transfers at sea, for example.
J. Alex Tarquinio (17:17):
Those countries are under some
criticism, but are you arguingfor secondary sanctions, and is
that something that you arebringing to the European Union?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (17:28):
Well , our minister of foreign
Affairs is dealing with that.
It's not the direct matter ofthe Minister of Defense, but
nevertheless we all understandthat it's not only Estonian wish
(17:50):
or Baltic countries wish or theNordic Baltic wish.
So we have to be very clearhere that this is an
international question and it'sabout the rules of law and it's
about the rules-based world,Ukraine.
And when we take also thevotings in the United Nations,
then we see that there arecountries who are pro-Russia,
(18:15):
and we also understand that.
You know, against UN principles, against those values we
consider to be important,against this, Many countries are
still in favor of Russia.
So it's a long way to persuadeand to convince every country
(18:35):
that Russia is conducting a warof aggression in Ukraine and of
course we will continue doingthat.
J. Alex Tarquinio (18:44):
So criticism may not be enough if the country
agrees with Russia, but whatabout the other countries
perhaps giving aid?
You mentioned the flag statesand the flag hopping between
states.
Should flag states be moreactively weeding out the shadow
fleet or denying flags to them?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian (19:06):
denying flags to them.
Of course I would like to seethat no country will issue the
flag for the vessels listed inthe sanctions list or the shadow
fleet list.
But the reality is that we evendo not have all the vessels
which we know that are part ofthe shadow fleet listed in the
(19:26):
sanctions list of the EuropeanUnion or United Kingdom.
So still, we need to work onthat.
It's not the one day resultwhat we can achieve, so we will
continue pushing for that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (19:38):
of course, Now you raise a good point.
What about the potentialinvolvement of Western companies
in the formation of the shadowfleet?
I mean you mentioned that somecountries obviously have sided
with Russia or remain neutral inthe formation of the shadow
fleet.
I mean you mentioned that somecountries obviously have sided
with russia or remain neutral inthe un general assembly.
But what about those that havevoted with ukraine?
But they still have companiesthat, for example, are selling
(20:00):
older vessels to russia, providethe provision of equipment and
services to the shadow fleet.
Does that require more scrutiny?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (20:10):
Well , to be very honest, you know, I
believe that every country whois doing that has to answer to
these questions.
We know that Russia should bealso take under the
responsibility, or Russia shouldtake the responsibility also
about the shadow fleet, becausethey are using it unlawfully to
export its oil to the world.
(20:33):
But again, there are too manyplayers to answer all these
questions.
It's not only the countries,it's also different
organizations like OPEC whichcan make certain steps, make
certain steps.
So, as I said, we're lookingfor these options on diplomatic
(20:54):
level and we're trying to seewhat we can do more.
J. Alex Tarquinio (20:56):
Now speaking of the diplomatic level, with
the US, uk and EU havingdistinct, sometimes overlapping,
sanction regimes on individualships in the shadow fleet and
there's some disagreement as tohow many.
There are 300, 500, 700.
It depends on who you ask.
But does this structure of theoverlapping sanctions, does that
(21:17):
enhance or diminish the overallpressure on Russia?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (21:21):
Well , my understanding is very clear
that the United Kingdom, unitedStates and European Union can
work more closely here together,and our aim should be very,
very clear Every vessel whichUkraine has identified as a
shadow fleet vessel should beunder these sanctions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (21:39):
There's the sanctions, but then there's also
the pressure that's beenapplied through the frozen
Russian assets estimates of 200,300 billion in Europe.
Russian assets estimates of 200to 300 billion in Europe.
Simply having those frozenassets implies some pressure on
Russia.
Once you use them, you nolonger have them.
Of course, you can't have yourcake and eat it too, but what
(21:59):
would Estonia like to see donewith them?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian De (22:02):
We've been very clear, of course,
here all the time that as Russiahas to take the responsibility
of all these damages and crimes,then the frozen assets as
Russia has to take theresponsibility of all these
damages and crimes, then thefrozen assets should be given to
Ukraine and they should usethem as they need to use them Is
it for defending the country orrebuild the country.
So reparations and restorationsare an important step also to
(22:27):
go through during the peacenegotiations and, of course, we
have been always supporting thatthe frozen assets should be
used for Ukraine.
J. Alex Tarquinio (22:39):
But is that in the prosecution of the
fighting of the war?
Or do you want to see them helduntil the end of the war and
then used for reconstruction?
Or do you want to see them as abargaining chip, perhaps at the
end of the war?
In other words, spend now orsave for later?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (22:58):
Well , it's not worth bargaining when
you don't have the control overthem.
So I would say that we shouldrelease them as soon as possible
, or as much as we can forUkraine, and then it's up to
Ukraine to decide what to dowith this money.
So this is the easiest way tohandle this situation.
J. Alex Tarquinio (23:17):
I see.
So release them to Ukraine andlet Ukraine decide whether
they're best bent on immediatewar needs.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian (23:25):
Because we've used the meaningful
profit from the frozen assets todeliver the ammunition.
So we've done that already,basically that we've used the
interest of the frozen assets tohelp around 50 billion a year.
When we talk about 300 billion,then this would have given a
(23:53):
huge chance for Ukraine for along time ago already to win the
war and even to restore thecountry.
J. Alex Tarquinio (24:01):
And when you say we, you're talking about the
European Union.
Yes, In light of the success ofOperation Spiderweb, obviously
a hugely audacious plan andexecution, but now you know that
we reflect on it.
Does this indicate a broadervulnerability in countries with
advanced weapon systems from thelow cost drone technology
(24:24):
technology?
Is Estonia worried about this,I mean, given the neighborhood
that you're in, and also, isthis something that you expect
to be discussing over the next?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian D (24:37):
couple of days at the DATOM, a defense
ministers meeting in Brussels.
Well, first of all, we have newregional plans and we have
defense plans for NATO.
Secondly, we've decided toinvest a lot more into defence
and we are giving all we can todefend our country, defend our
nation.
And I believe that you know thebiggest topic for the next
(25:00):
couple of weeks will be insideof NATO how we can reach the new
level of defense spendingsinside of NATO, because the new
defense plans and also thecapability targets are exactly
for that, because it's not onlyabout the percentage but it's
about the capabilities.
And to achieve thesecapabilities, we need to have
(25:21):
more money.
So Estonia is very clear here.
So we need to invest more.
We need to do it very quickly,not to take a lot of time for
that.
So this will be the main focusfor upcoming weeks.
J. Alex Tarquinio (25:35):
What does Estonia consider an appropriate
target?
Obviously, you spend one of themost of any of the NATO
countries, but some of thecountries haven't even gotten to
2%.
Are you going to push yourcounterparts at NATO for 3.5%,
5%, some other figure?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (25:55):
Well , we know the target.
It was said by President Trumpsome months ago and he said very
clearly that NATO should investat least 5%.
Estonia will do that alreadynext year.
We will not take five or tenyears for that and we will go
from basically 3.3 level to 5.4level already in one year.
(26:15):
So we will increase our defensespendings more in one year as
many have in the last years.
So it's not a question.
As I said, yes, the 5% shouldbe the goal, but we also
understand that to reach that,we just need to see of that what
(26:36):
the capabilities are, what weneed to have to defend our
countries, to defend thealliance, and when we calculate
the capabilities cost, then wewill see that even 3% is not
enough.
So this is why, of course, weare pushing the highest number
we can get from the Hague and ofcourse we would be happy to see
(26:57):
5%.
But then when it's 3.5, ofcourse we will not fight against
3.5.
But we would like to see thatit will go higher, as President
Trump also has said, to 5%.
J. Alex Tarquinio (27:10):
So you concur with the 5% target.
It's already something you planto do as a NATO member.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defe (27:18):
Not only to plan to do, but we will
do that.
So this is a difference, so weare not discussing that anymore.
It is decided and we will go to5.4% next year.
J. Alex Tarquinio (27:29):
Now, what's more important though?
The actual target figure or howthe money is spent, because
it's a big difference, of course, if it's spent, for example, on
personnel or weapons systems,and perhaps also the choice of
weapons systems expensive, orwe've been talking about some
low cost, newer technologies.
Is it more important howlow-cost newer technologies?
Is it more important how themoney is spent, or is it simply
(27:51):
important now just to getgovernment's budgeting to get to
that higher figure?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (27:57):
As I said, it's about the
capabilities, and it isimportant to understand that
these capabilities are not takenfrom the clouds.
These capabilities have beenput on paper by the SACEUR and
his team and have been verycarefully calculated and very
carefully selected.
(28:17):
What do we need to have todefend the alliance and and to
give the best security guaranteefor our people?
So when all the countries willagree in in two days in nado in
brussels on defense capabilities, then we all have also the
targets where to invest themoney.
(28:38):
That means also personnel.
That means also personnel.
That means also new equipment.
That means also the newemerging techs.
So this is everything we need,and of course, we know that
there are some capabilitieswhich need more money and some
capabilities which you canacquire more quickly.
So it's a mix of everything.
(29:01):
But, as I said, it is importantto have the political
commitment that the defensespending will go up and then the
defense and the military peoplecan already start acquiring
these capabilities which areneeded for regional plans.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:21):
Minister with a recurring pattern of Russia's
large-scale Zapad exercises.
Obviously, 2021 came rightbefore the full-scale invasion
of Ukraine and now we're back inthat cycle and looking at Zapad
2025 in September.
Is NATO concerned about theupcoming exercises and,
(29:43):
specifically, is the Estoniandefense minister?
Is your country concerned, andwhat actions do you think you
should be taking to mitigatethis?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (29:54):
Well , I would say that it's the same
with the criticalinfrastructure, that we are not
concerned.
We are monitoring the situationvery closely.
We of course have to understandthat there will be more talks
than actions by the Russians.
They will use the propaganda alot to show that they are doing
a lot, but at least what we knowat the moment that the number
(30:20):
of troops will not be so high asmaybe in the previous ZAPAD
exercises.
So let's see how it goes.
But nevertheless, we areprepared and we are always ready
to defend our country ifnecessary.
But just to remind you also,NATO has exercises all the time.
We have at the moment on theBaltic Sea, the exercise Baltops
(30:43):
.
We just finished a couple ofweeks ago a huge exercise, the
Hedgehog, here in Estonia, with16,000 troops, 6,000 allies.
We had many other exercises inLatvia, Lithuania, in Poland.
So the exercises are a normalpart of the militaries and this
(31:05):
is exactly how we should take it.
Of course, we are monitoringvery closely what Russia is
doing, because Russia is doingthat together with Belarus.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:13):
The only reason to perhaps look at them
more closely is the pattern of2021 and the invasion of 2022.
But so, in other words, it'ssomething that NATO should
monitor, but it's consideredpart of the routine of military
exercises of the differentalliances.
Is that fair?
Yes, okay, speaking of yourmeetings in Brussels, ahead of
(31:35):
the NATO defense minister'smeeting on Thursday, you'll be
attending the Ukraine contactgroup meeting.
Can you tell us a little bitabout what you anticipate as an
outcome?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (31:47):
Well , first and foremost, we have to
show the solidarity withUkrainians and to show our
support to them, and then, ofcourse, to continue our military
assistance to Ukraine, becausethey need it every day.
Resistance to Ukraine, becausethey need it every day.
We have our own plans for theyear and I believe that it is
important to listen also tofeedback from Ukrainians from
(32:12):
Istanbul, and then let's seewhat the conclusion will be.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:25):
But nevertheless, there is a clear
understanding that the Europeans, together with Ukraine, and we,
will help Ukraine also in thefuture.
Obviously, this process beganas the Ramstein group that met
under the Biden administration.
It's evolved quite a bit, shallwe say, and it's no longer
explicitly led by the UnitedStates.
How has it evolved, and doesthat have any implications for
(32:46):
the overall effort?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (32:49):
It is good that we have different
countries involved, that Germanyand the United Kingdom are
taking more responsibility.
It is good that we have thedifferent coalitions.
Estonia is leading the ITcoalition, Our good friends
Latvians are leading the dronecoalition, and this is exactly
how it should be that we willfind the strengths of each
(33:09):
country and we will use them insake of Ukrainians and in the
best way how to help Ukrainians.
So, of course, I would like tosee more involvement from the
United States.
Of course we will discuss andwe will see also in the future
more and more solidarity amongthe European countries and also
(33:33):
the joint help of what we aresending to Ukraine.
J. Alex Tarquinio (33:38):
Those coalitions are very interesting.
I assume the drone coalition isinvolved in raising drones to
donate to Ukraine.
Those coalitions are veryinteresting.
I assume the drone coalition isinvolved in raising drones to
donate to Ukraine, or maybelooking at drone technology.
You mentioned Estonia is partof the IT coalition.
Estonia is very tech savvy.
I think it's not anexaggeration to say that your
country punches above its weightin technology, but in terms of
(33:58):
the size of your population andthe number of people who are
very tech savvy and actually Ispoke about this with your
foreign minister when he was atthe United Nations in September
about advances you had made theIT coalition is that working on
cybersecurity or is that workingon actual physical tech that
you are donating to Ukraine, orall of the above?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Defen (34:19):
We have a very clear plan what we
are doing with Ukrainians.
Of course, we will not go intodetails.
We've collected more or less 1billion of assets for Ukrainians
through this IT coalition, andthen we have specified also the
areas of work where we will helpthem in the IT sector and cyber
(34:40):
field.
So of course, we will not covereverything, but this is exactly
why we have established thatcoalition to be and to help
Ukrainians exactly in thesespecific fields where our help
is most needed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (34:54):
Now last year , at the 75th anniversary of
NATO in the Washington summit,the declaration referred to
China as a decisive enabler,specifically because of the
technology the drones and alsothe dual-use technology that
Russia got from China.
Is that still the case, and isthat something that NATO is
(35:17):
still monitoring?
Hanno Pevkur, Estonian Def (35:19):
NATO is monitoring all the time
different actions not only byRussians but also by China, and
of course, we see that Russia isusing Chinese technology in
Ukraine.
So it's not a news to anyoneand of course, we are keeping
(35:39):
the eyes very close to that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (35:43):
Thank you, Mr Minister, for joining us today
in the Delegates' Lounge.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
Thank you very much.
See you again.
Frank Radford (35:54):
And that's it from the Delegates' Lounge.
We'd like to thank our esteemedguests, who have graciously
allowed us to share theirhard-earned insights into what
really matters.
And then there's you, ourlisteners, who we hope are
sufficiently edified to clamorfor more of the same.
Do drop in for a weekly episodeon Thursday, or, from time to
time if we're on the road, forspecial events, in which case
there'll be a bonus episode.
Subscribe wherever you listento podcasts and, if you like
(36:17):
what you've heard, please take amoment to rate or review the
show, as it helps others whoshare your abiding interest in
world affairs to find their wayto the Delegates Lounge.
You can connect with us on manypopular social media platforms
or reach out to us directly atinfothedelicatesloungecom.
We're a small team so we can'trespond to every message, but we
will read them.
Our show this week was writtenand produced by the host and by
(36:38):
yours truly executive producer,frank radford.
Until next time, keep calm andcurious.
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