June 9, 2025 • 42 mins
Welcome to the second edition of "Undercurrents," an ongoing series in The Delegates Lounge podcast about the oceans and seas that unite us, and sometimes, divide us.
In this episode, we're joined by Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a former longtime analyst with Lloyd's List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals that has provided shipping news from London for centuries.
Michelle expounds on the explosive growth of what she calls "the Dark Fleet," also commonly called "the Shadow Fleet," a parallel shipping network that transports sanctioned oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela while shippers and receivers thumb their noses at the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
What began as just a small number of vessels in 2018 has mushroomed into more than 700 tankers, by her estimation, roughly 18% of the globally trading tanker fleet. Michelle reveals the elaborate deceptions employed by these vessels: so-called "flag hopping" between opportunistic registries, using Byzantine ownership structures to hide beneficial owners, spoofing location data, conducting ship-to-ship transfers at sea, and operating with questionable or fraudulent insurance that couldn't possibly cover a catastrophic spill.
The environmental and safety risks are staggering. These elderly, poorly maintained vessels, averaging 22 years old, sail through environmentally sensitive areas like the Baltic Sea carrying millions of barrels of oil. "The Dark Fleet is a very serious accident waiting to happen and I'm literally surprised there hasn't been one by now, simply because the condition of these ships is so terrible," Michelle warns, describing a potential billion-dollar environmental disaster waiting to happen. Meanwhile, approximately 25 seafarers per vessel often find themselves unwitting participants in sanctions evasion, with vessel abandonment rates reaching record highs.
A recent Baltic Sea confrontation between Estonian authorities and an unflagged tanker, which we spoke with the Estonian defense minister about in our latest episode, reveals the escalation of geopolitical tensions and limited options available to coastal governments. As sanctions and price caps on Russian oil show mixed results, Michelle says that some privately-owned shipping companies have begun returning to the Russian trade as prices fall below sanction thresholds – potentially improving safety but complicating policy objectives.
Subscribe to The Delegates Lounge for more critical insights into the maritime undercurrents shaping global politics, economics, and environmental security.
Speakers:
J. Alex Tarquinio (host) is a resident correspondent at the United Nations in New York and co-founder of The Delegates Lounge podcast. @alextarquinio of @delegateslounge on X and @thedelegateslounge on Instagram.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (guest) is a maritime intelligence analyst and former longtime writer with Lloyd’s List, one of the world’s oldest continuously running journals. @Michellewb_ on X.
References:
Recent articles by our guest include this opinion piece in the Financial Times.
https://www.ft.com/content/7a89f7ae-cf3b-4e53-88bb-b87916f3eeef
Our host mentions in this episode that she interviewed Michelle for an article in The New York Times when the sanctions were relatively new.
Credits:
Music: Adobe Stock
Photo
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (00:08):
Welcome to the Delegates Lounge.
Pull up a chair.
I'm Alex Tarquinio, ajournalist based at the United
Nations here in New York City,and your emcee for this podcast
featuring some of the mostinfluential minds in the world
today.
Settle in for some rivetingtete-a-tete, available wherever
you listen to podcasts.
Welcome back to the secondepisode in our new series,
(00:36):
called Undercurrents, about theoceans and seas that unite us
and sometimes divide us.
We're launching this ongoingseries for the United Nations
World Oceans Day on June 8th.
In our first episode in theseries, an exclusive interview
with Estonia's Defense MinisterHanno Pevker, we delved into the
threats posed by Russia'sso-called Shadow Fleet.
(00:57):
Here's a description of theShadow Fleet by the Special
Envoy for Maritime Security ofthe Danish Ministry for Foreign
Affairs at a Greek-led UNSecurity Council debate in May.
Special Envoy for Marit (01:09):
Coastal states' capacities to monitor
and respond to maritime threatsabove and below the surface need
to be enhanced.
The increasing reliance onsubstandard vessels to evade
sanctions, including UNsanctions, poses a great risk to
the environment, seafarers,maritime safety and security.
These vessels are often old,poorly maintained,
(01:33):
insufficiently insured and sailwith their transponders off.
This is a challenge not only inthe North Sea and Baltic Sea,
but also the Straits of Malaccaand Singapore in the Sea and
elsewhere.
If we do not act and ensureeffective enforcement, it will
only be a matter of time beforean oil spill destroys a
(01:53):
coastline somewhere.
J. Alex Tarquinio (01:56):
Drawing upon her encyclopedic knowledge of
seafaring, our guest in thisepisode, Michelle Wiese Bockmann
, pulls back the veil on themany subterfuges involved in
maintaining this parallel fleetof old, unregistered or
sanctioned tankers thattransport not only Russia's oil
and petroleum products, whichhave been under price caps since
Russia's full-scale invasion ofUkraine more than three years
(02:17):
ago, but also facilitatessanctioned oil shipments from
Iran and Venezuela.
Michelle details the rusesinvolved in maintaining the
Shadow Fleet, which she refersto as the Dark Fleet.
Michelle is a veteran maritimeintelligence analyst and former
longtime writer with Lloyd'sList, one of the world's oldest
continuously running journalsthat has provided shipping news
(02:39):
from London for centuries.
I first spoke with her aboutthe Shadow Fleet for an article
in the New York Times when theprice cap on Russia's oil
exports was relatively new.
As always when I refer to anarticle, we'll include the link
in the show notes, along withsome articles by our guest.
Our discussion with Michellewas so informative that we're
(02:59):
bringing it to you in two parts,with the next episode covering
a wide range of maritime topics.
Here's our conversation,michelle.
(03:21):
Thank you so much for joiningus in the Delegates Lounge.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (03:25):
Thank you very much for having me.
J. Alex Tarquinio (03:28):
Well, we're glad that you could make time
for us, especially as you'vejust gotten back from Malta,
where you were a DistinguishedVisiting Fellow in the
International Maritime LawInstitute run by the IMO.
Perhaps you could start bytelling us about some of the
topics that were weighing mostheavily on everyone's minds
there.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (03:45):
Well, I was there to lecture on
maritime security and the legaland security implications of the
so-called dark fleet of shipswhich are shipping sanctioned
primarily Russian, venezuelanand Iranian oil, and it was.
You know, there's an enormousinterest in this topic and I was
speaking to really the nextgeneration of maritime leaders
(04:07):
and they're the people that aregoing to be at the International
Maritime Organization in thefuture and weighing really
important policy decisions onhow to deal with these emerging
threats.
And I have to say the IMO fromwhat I saw at the legal
committee when I sat through itin March say the IMO, from what
I saw at the legal committeewhen I sat through it in March,
(04:32):
is really struggling to dealwith this as a government and as
all marine stakeholders at themoment, because it is a very
real threat to the environment,to safety and also crew welfare.
J. Alex Tarquinio (04:40):
That's very interesting about the dark fleet
.
It's called many things.
Sometimes it's called theshadow fleet or the gray fleet.
I don't know if there's apreferred term shadow fleet,
dark fleet.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (04:52):
Well, there's not really.
I mean, it means differentthings to different people, and
this is one of the problems isthat you have to really try and
get a definition.
So I mean, I've had a stab ofputting some methodology
together and I can go throughthat.
So you know what I'm talkingabout, if that helps.
J. Alex Tarquinio (05:09):
Yeah, that would be good and are there like
do those terms actually meanslightly different things or are
they synonyms Dark fleet,shadow fleet, gray feet or is
there like a subtle difference?
in the meaning.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (05:21):
It's just the, you know, pick a word.
Some people call it theparallel fleet because it now
operates parallel to ordinary.
You know, establishedinternational regulations.
J. Alex Tarquinio (05:33):
But actually it would be good you offered and
I think it'd be really helpfulfor listeners who maybe have
heard these terms but aren't,you know, maritime security
experts.
Maybe you can start by actuallydescribing what the dark fleet
is for our listeners and how itoperates.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (05:48):
Okay, so, in terms of methodology, a
dark fleet, usually a tanker,because they're shipping oil and
sometimes natural gas, liquidpetroleum gas.
Generally they're elderly, sothey're aged 15 years or over,
and that's because there's lessof a market for them in the
established market.
They're also anonymously owned,so the ownership is hidden
(06:10):
behind Byzantine corporatestructures in jurisdictions
where it's impossible todetermine who the ultimate
beneficial owner is.
That's not unusual in shipping,but this is overly complex,
layer upon layer upon layer.
Then, of course, they have tobe solely engaged in these
trades, so it's not as if thetanker picks up a Saudi cargo
(06:31):
and delivers it to the US andthen goes back and gets a
Russian one.
These vessels exist purely forthis, to be deployed in these
trades.
And then, finally, they have tobe engaged in a range of
deceptive or illicit shippingpractices.
Finally, they have to beengaged in a range of deceptive
or illicit shipping practices.
So that can range from doingship-to-ship transfer of oil in
international waters to escapeport state control scrutiny, or
(06:53):
it can be those overly complexstructures.
It can be spoofing theirlocation, so using their vessel
tracking transponders to showthey're in one place when
they're really in another.
And there's flag hopping.
I could go on with the range ofdeceptive practices.
J. Alex Tarquinio (07:13):
What is flag hopping?
How does that work?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (07:20):
Well, so every ship has to register
under a flag or under aparticular country, and that
gives them the right to sail.
And there's a lot of what wecall open registers, and so
normally a ship will, during thecourse of its ownership, with
one person will, be registeredin Panama or Liberia or the
Marshall Islands.
They're the top three flagstates, as we call them.
But what we're finding now isthat, with the increasing
(07:43):
prevalence of sanctions, whichhave really ramped up in the
last six months, the flag stateshave been lent on.
There's been a lot of softdiplomacy to say to Panama, for
example look, we're the UK,we've sanctioned this tanker,
you must deflag it.
And so Panama has agreed to dothis.
They happily deflag the tanker,and then that tanker goes to a
(08:06):
lot of the opportunistic flagregistries that have set up in
Gabon, cameroon, san Marino,gambia, I could go on, and
they'll go to those registriesand then they'll flag there and
of course, that registry willthen be told that no, you must
deflag it.
And so you're seeing ships atthe moment that will flag hop.
(08:27):
So they've gone to three orfour flags in the last eight
months to keep one step ahead ofregulators and continue trading
.
J. Alex Tarquinio (08:36):
Has there been a big increase in the
business in those?
I don't know if it's fair tocall them secondary flag states.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (08:43):
They've exploded.
I mean, I've never seen thisgoing on in my 25 years of
looking at the industry.
But you've seen sort of like Icall it regulatory arbitrage,
where the ultimate owners ofthese ships are looking for the
place where they're going tohave the least oversight, the
least scrutiny.
And then you see countries like.
(09:05):
A great example at the momentis Gambia, which decided that
they would give a contract to acompany in Cyprus to operate the
registry on their behalf andthey got that contract in May.
And since May that registry hasgone from having a handful of
tugs and fishing vessels in itsfleet to having over 40 tankers,
(09:28):
most of them involved in eitherIranian or Russian shipping,
and a lot of them sanctioned,because clearly the owners of
those sanctioned vessels knowthat even though they've got a
US sanction on them, Gambia'smanager isn't looking very
closely, so they continuetrading.
And then you've also gotfalsely flagged vessels, where
they've gone to fraudulentregistries that don't really
(09:49):
exist.
They're just go-daddy websites,or I think I found one that was
just completely made upregistries and just pretending
to flag.
J. Alex Tarquinio (09:57):
Is Cyprus a key state in these registries?
Many years ago, when the UN wastrying to work on reunification
attempts on Cyprus, I didactually cover it and live there
for a bit, with the divisionand the unrecognized Turkish
part, and also, you know, thereare obviously a lot of Russians
living there at that time, maybeeven more now, or who have a
(10:17):
second residence there.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (10:19):
Well, yes and no.
It is the center.
So I think Sierra Leone, gambia, sautoma and Principe and
there's a couple other privatelyCyprus Incorporated companies
that are operating on behalf ofthese vessels, but really so,
just to be clear, the vesselswould be flagged in a country
(10:40):
such as Gambia or any of thoseyou just mentioned, but their
registry would be in Cyprus.
Is that how I understand it?
Yeah, so they've contractedprivate companies to operate on
their behalf, and sort ofeveryone gets cut, and of course
, this has been quite anopportunistic business for a
certain level of marine serviceprovider, and so I often say
(11:03):
that, when we're looking at theDark Fleet and the challenges it
poses, the EU and the UK haveto get their house in order
first, and the growth of theseregistries, often in tandem with
companies that are domiciled inthe EU or the UK, needs to be
addressed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (11:19):
There are sanctions going after the Dark
Fleet, for example, sanctions toparticular ships, and is it
effective?
Or is it a bit likewhack-a-mole, where they just
move from one registry or oneflag state to the next?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (11:32):
Well, that's a big question.
Have sanctions been effective?
I think, as a foreign policytool, sanctions have actually
driven the creation of the darkfleet and then the imposition of
sanctions directly on thevessels that are now shipping
the oil to circumvent thesanctions that were created in
the first place.
It's been really challenging.
(11:53):
Eu and UK sanctions have kindof been effective in the sense
that they have made logisticsmore challenging, but they have
also facilitated more deceptiveshipping practices.
You know those ship-to-shiptransfers that I was talking
about, the flag hopping, andwe're currently seeing in the
(12:14):
Baltic Sea ships that are, youknow, for all intents and
purposes, unflagged, uninsured,without all the safety
mechanisms that you need to makesure that a ship you know ship
that's going to sail throughthose environmentally sensitive
areas with a million tons of oilon board, they're all gone
because these ships have beendriven by sanctions to those
(12:34):
fringes.
So while they have made it morechallenging, they have not
really stopped things.
And of course you also have tolook at the complicity by the
receiver of the cargo.
So if we look at Iran, most ofthe recipients are oil terminals
in China, and when you look atRussian oil, that's also China
(12:56):
and mainly India, and so thoseships need to pass port state
control checks in order to birthand to discharge their cargo,
and that's happening despite thesanctions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (13:09):
So, even though dark fleet ships are
engaging in deceptive practicesturning off their transponders,
transferring oil at sea,ship-to-ship transfers you think
there's still some complicitywith the port authorities?
They should be able to seearound those practices.
Is that what you're saying?
Michelle Wiese Bockm (13:27):
Absolutely .
I mean, the new Trumpadministration has sanctioned
several oil terminals in China.
They have also sanctioned a lotof these ships.
I think 70 ships have beensanctioned since the
inauguration for Iran alone.
And you know, I look, I trackthem every day and I look at
them.
(13:47):
They've got no flag whatsoeverand there they are at a
particular terminal in NorthernChina discharging.
I mean, these vessels are.
They're really hiding in plainsight.
And you know it's themetaphorical two fingers to the
Western governments, from boththe Russian and Chinese
governments, because I knoweverybody knows it's written
(14:09):
about and watched daily.
J. Alex Tarquinio (14:12):
And you mentioned that these are
primarily tankers with oil andmaybe some liquefied natural gas
super cool gas you cantransport on tankers, and the
origin of that, of course, isthe sanctioned countries Russia,
venezuela and Iran.
What about, just as an aside,what about North Korea?
They also have sanctions.
It's mostly on other types ofgoods, though, so those would be
(14:33):
more cargo ships.
Is that also run by a darkfleet?
Are they coming in just onChinese regular ships, or is
there also some dark fleetpractices there?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (14:43):
Well, I'd like to say that North Korea
is the OG of the dark fleet,really, if you look at some of
the UN reports from the expertsthat have produced some really
compelling examples of deceptiveshipping practices right
through from you know what wewould call identity theft, where
(15:04):
they have tricked theInternational Maritime
Organization, which is a UnitedNations agency, into issuing IMO
numbers for vessels that don'texist.
So these numbers, you know, areissued when a vessel is built
and it stays with the vessel forits entire life, no matter how
many different names and flagchanges it has.
You know, north Korea organizeda system to pretend to build a
(15:26):
vessel and then swap IMOidentities and do all sorts of
skullduggery, and thosetechniques have been replicated
and gone on steroids in Russia.
Report on North Korea is nolonger being published.
There are still plenty ofreports that outline all of
(15:49):
these different tactics, whichare becoming increasingly
sophisticated as governments andship operators learn how to
mess around with AIS automaticidentification signals to make
ships do weird and magicalthings, which is very dangerous
on a navigational basis as well.
J. Alex Tarquinio (16:11):
Yeah, there are many secondary effects.
Obviously, the risks tonavigation, the legitimate or
the recognized fleet the fleetis not the dark fleet.
There's risk to that.
Also, insurance I'm assumingthat these dark fleet vessels
are not insured.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (16:24):
Well, we don't know because, unlike
the rest of the industry, whenit comes to marine insurance and
insuring against marine oilspills, there's an international
group of 12 clubs.
They insure now about 86% ofthe world's tonnage, but the
dark fleet operate outside thatand they have insurance on paper
(16:47):
.
I've tracked some absolutelydodgy companies that have
fraudulent websites.
There was one that pretended tooperate from Norway that really
operated from Russia.
It's now been shut down.
But if there was an oil spillthey are not able to meet
liability.
And again that's on the flagstates.
So these flag states are meantto check that these marine
(17:09):
insurers are able to cover thecost if there was an oil spill
and meet their obligations, andof course they can't and that's
just not being checked.
And bear in mind, if a ship anAfriMax-sized vessel, which is
the size of a tanker that wouldship out of the Baltic if that
had an accident while it wassailing through the Baltic Sea
(17:30):
and down the English Channel toIndia, that's about a billion
dollars worth of damage.
That's why coastal states areso worried about the
environmental threat thesepoorly maintained, elderly rust
buckets represent to those areas.
J. Alex Tarquinio (17:46):
Well, coastal states and also particularly
small island states, I mean,would be at risk.
They would have fewer resourcesto clean it up and there
wouldn't be.
We all remember the ExxonValdez and other crises where
there were spills but there wasa large company behind that to
lead the cleanup, and presumablythat would not be the case for
the dark fleet.
No, are there any accidents oroil spills we can already
(18:11):
definitively attribute to theDark Fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (18:14):
Well, there have been a few near
misses, like there was one on atanker called the Pablo, and so
that was an Afromax tanker andthat was in an area off east of
Malaysia where a lot of dozensand dozens of these tankers
gather and that's a very populararea to do ship-to-ship
transfers and to sort of waitand to store oil.
(18:37):
That Afromax exploded, killed alot of crew, but it was in
ballast.
That means it didn't have acargo on board.
Had it had a cargo on board,the whole world would have known
about that.
So that was a near miss.
And then there was one not solong ago called the Cirrus 1.
Again, that was in that area,it was spoofing its location and
(18:58):
it collided with a tanker, aproduct tanker that was properly
flagged and one of the mostrespected tanker owners in the
world.
It collided with that tanker,it had a cargo of naphtha aboard
and there was minor spills, butthat was it.
But once again, thathighlighted those navigational
(19:19):
dangers.
I've maintained that the DarkFleet is a very serious accident
waiting to happen and I'mliterally surprised there hasn't
been one by now, simply becausethe condition of these ships is
so terrible.
J. Alex Tarquinio (19:31):
Well, it's obviously a risk to the sailors
on the dark fleet ships,certainly and presumably because
they are working under thoseconditions.
They may not be the mostexperienced sailors, but it is
of course a risk to theestablished ships, for example
if there's a collision.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (19:47):
Well, I've spoken to some seafarers
that are on these ships and youhave to bear in mind every one
of these ships employs about 25seafarers and you know they're
not terribly well paid.
They're, you know, the unsungheroes of globalization and
world trade really Poorly paid.
They don't really know whenthey get on a ship that they're
(20:10):
going to be asked to do and getinvolved in these illicit
activities.
I mean, maybe the master insome cases is an exception to
that, but the rate of seafarerand vessel abandonment has never
been higher.
That's at world records.
And when you look at the shipsthat have been abandoned, many
of them are either flagged bythese flag states and they're
(20:30):
attracting really terrible poorquality tonnage, or they're dark
fleet tankers that there's nouse for them anymore and so
they're just abandoned.
J. Alex Tarquinio (20:41):
And you mentioned, many of these are
older vessels, 15 years or more.
I mean, it's not simply thatthey may not be as well
maintained.
The standards for tankers aredifferent now than they were,
for example.
I mean, are some of them so oldthat they might not have double
hulls?
Or, you know, they might not bedouble hulled?
No, they're not that old.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (20:59):
They're all double hulled.
I mean, the average age isabout 22 years.
Okay, most ships they have toadhere to a set, they have to
have regular surveys and adhereto a series of certificates and
inspections done by what we callclassification societies or
recognized organizations, tomake sure that this vessel is
(21:19):
structurally safe and seaworthy.
There have been cases where weknow that these ships owners are
choosing recognizedorganizations that aren't going
to look too carefully or wherethey can provide false
information, knowing that it'sjust going to be ticked.
I mean, a lot of this is abouttick boxing and just being able
to get the cargo through.
It's absolutely insane howlittle oversight there is for
(21:41):
these very, how little oversightthere is for these very, very
old ships.
J. Alex Tarquinio (21:48):
The Trump administration has been talking
about secondary sanctions,essentially if Trump runs out of
patience with Putin in thenegotiations to end the war in
Ukraine.
If they were to go after itmore effectively, could they do
something about the dark fleet,or is that just likely to
increase the size andcomplexities of the dark fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (22:08):
Well, I would probably say let's have
a look at what happened withIran and how that's working out
for them Not terribly well.
Trump likes to go on about hismaximum pressure zero exports.
That's not been achieved in thesix years since sanctions were
reimposed on Iran.
(22:30):
Six years since sanctions werereimposed on Iran and when Trump
when he was in office the firsttime, exports were more or less
at the same level they weretoday, I think you know,
anywhere between 1.4 to 1.8million barrels per day, and
that figure, no matter how manysanctions you put and extend on
the dark fleet, that hasn'tstopped the flow of oil because
(22:51):
you have complicity from Iranand complicity from China.
You know where the ships takeon the cargo, where the ships
are discharged, and when theysail they have the right of
innocent passage through areasof the sea where they you the
sea, when they go throughSingapore Straits.
So people often say why don'tyou just stop the ships?
(23:14):
Well, you can't because ofinternational conventions, and
so I very much doubt thatsecondary sanctions will do
anything other than drive moretankers into the market and
perhaps drive even furthernumbers to the fringes and
outside global regulation.
J. Alex Tarquinio (23:31):
On the other hand, the impetus behind these
sanctions is really twofold Oneis to create leverage in any
negotiations with Russia, butanother is to limit the income
that Russia makes from its saleof oil and gas which is directly
fueling the war.
So of course you'reanticipating my next question
Perhaps it's not stopping theseshipments of the dark fleet, but
(23:53):
is it reducing theprofitability of those oil and
gas shipments for Russia andhence reducing the amount of
money that they have to spend ontheir war in Ukraine?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (24:03):
Well, of course we get to the oil
price cap, which was, I believe,very much a flawed policy,
because that under the cap,western marine service providers
can get involved in shippingRussian oil to third countries
as long as they can prove thatthe cargo was sold below $60 a
barrel for crude, $100 a barrelfor refined products for crude,
(24:30):
$100 a barrel for refinedproducts.
At the moment, the oil pricecap, the cost of urals grade
crude and I think maybe evensome of the other grades, is
below $60 a barrel simplybecause of global market
conditions, and so that hasn'treduced the income.
When the oil was priced abovethe cap, yes, there was a
discount to Brent, which is themost traded oil index, but that
(24:53):
gap has narrowed over the years.
So you could argue that therehas been income lost as a result
.
But the oil price cap, it onlyreally works when the cargo is
priced below global prices.
J. Alex Tarquinio (25:08):
Well, of course, the oil price cap was
set years ago, when the price ofoil was much more elevated than
it is today.
I mean, should that be changed?
Should it be responsive?
Should it be actually adiscount to Brent instead, of, I
mean, $60?
Sounded cheap a couple of yearsago, but it doesn't today.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (25:27):
When the oil price cap was designed,
you remember, it was just afterEurope had been shut off from
natural gas and there was amassive price spike and there
was global inflation as a result, and so I think the regulators
back then were very, veryworried about removing oil from
the market and they wanted toprevent this inflation-inducing
(25:48):
price spike.
And of course, the globaleconomy is very different now,
and so is the oil market, sopotentially they could fiddle
around with the oil price cap,but from looking at it and how
it's worked from my point ofview, I think it's been a
failure, because the ultimateresult has been a tripling of
(26:10):
tankers in the dark fleet sinceit was imposed and ultimately, I
think you really want to getthat oil shipped on safer, newer
ships.
And what we have seen sincecrude oil fell below the price
cap in Russia we've seen moreprivate Greek-owned vessels
tankers come in to take thebusiness, because it's quite
(26:32):
lucrative business and I thinkthat's moving greater numbers
onto better quality tonnage andthat's a good thing for safety
and that's a good thing for theenvironment.
J. Alex Tarquinio (26:43):
There's more private Greek-owned vessels.
But then you said they're.
Are you talking about in thedark fleet or taking business
from the dark fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (26:50):
Taking business Taking business,
taking business, yeah.
So what's happened is that alot of private Greek-owned
tankers have always been in thebusiness and shipping out of
Russia, especially becausediesel, which is another major
export, has priced below $100 abarrel Goodness, I think, nearly
(27:11):
for the last 18 months.
So there's always been asubsection of tonnage that has
been compliant with the pricecap that's been shipping out of
Russia.
But what we're finding now isthat there are more Greek-owned
tankers that are shipping euroscrude, because it's below that
$60 a barrel cap, which in a way, has made shipping safer
(27:35):
because there's more oil goingon, better quality, better
regulated tonnage that isproperly insured under the
international group.
So that's a good thing and itsort of negates the need for any
capital now, because what youwant is to get oil off those
(27:56):
ships, those dark fleet ships,because I think we've all agreed
that they're they're not verysafe and these are smaller.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:04):
Well, I think most shipping companies are
privately owned.
These are smaller privatelyowned Greek shipping companies.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:09):
There's about four or five billionaire
Greek ship owners thatspecialize in this business.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:16):
Now remind me .
There's some superlative inGreek shipping.
They're either the largest shipowning country, Largest ship
owning nation, Largest shipowning nation.
Now, what does that meanexactly?
Does that mean they own themost number of ships or the most
tonnage?
Or how does that define?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:33):
All of the above, all of the above.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:35):
And those are private, private millionaire
ship owners.
Yeah, mostly To Americans.
We remember Jackie O andOnassis, so basically Onassis
type figures who are largeindividual ship owners.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:48):
Who are large individual ship owners
, yeah, I mean a few of themhave companies listed on the
NASDAQ or on the New York StockExchange, but they don't tend to
get into that business becauseof the reputational risk being
publicly listed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:04):
Are we talking about a relatively small
number of billionaire shipowners?
How many individuals are wetalking about?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (29:10):
They would all tell you that they're
not actually billionaires.
They're the taxi drivers ofglobal trade, they would
describe themselves.
There's probably 50 or 60 bignames in Greece that dominate in
the shipping world and withinthe tanker world, maybe about 20
, 25.
Oh, wow, and they considerthemselves the taxi drivers of
(29:34):
global shipping, very humbly, ofcourse, while earning hundreds
of millions when the market isgood.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:40):
I guess when the market is poor, that would
be like during economic crises.
By the way, aren't we seeing abig decline in shipping now
because of the uncertainty overthe Trump administration tariffs
?
I mean, we keep hearing storiesabout Long Beach seeing a huge
decrease in shipping.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (29:54):
Well, volatility is always good for
shipping.
There's always winners.
In COVID, for example,initially, if we're speaking on
tankers, oil demand dried up.
Initially rates were really bad, but when demand returned it
exploded and you had reallystrong rates, strong returns.
(30:15):
Plus.
You also had a recalibration ofglobal oil trade, with the
Houthis shutting down the RedSea, with the imposition of
sanctions on Russia, and thatsort of volatility is really
good for tankers, for tankersand when it comes to container
shipping, what happened withCOVID is when there was that
interruption to global trade andit resumed, the logistics were
(30:37):
all muddled up and that resultedin huge profits for container
ships because rates skyrocketed.
I'm not sure how things aregoing to pan out on container
shipping, because that's acompletely different area that
I'm looking at, but it's all toomuch for me, I have to say, is
Greece primarily the tankers andthe container shipping.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:03):
Is that more China, or am I stereotyping
there?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (31:07):
Well, the world's biggest container
ship operator is actually MSCMediterranean Shipping Group,
which is based in Switzerland.
So there you go, soSwitzerland's actually just by A
nice landlocked countryindustry really, but, yeah, a
(31:29):
lot of the operators.
And then of course you have tolook at the ownership, of the
tonnage that they may lease orcharter or own.
It all gets very, verycomplicated.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:38):
And you mentioned that the Greek
shipping companies.
That was actually bringing somemore safety having them
shipping at the Urals ratherthan the Dark Fleet ships.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (31:48):
Yeah, because you know who the
beneficial owner is and you knowthey have insurance.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:56):
That's the main thing.
Not only do they probably havenewer vessels and maybe more
experienced crew, you also areconfirmed that they have
insurance and, I guess, a papertrail.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (32:03):
Yeah, and they operate within the
international law of shipping.
I mean this dark fleet.
If you're just speaking ontankers, we're looking at about
18% of the internationallytrading fleet.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:14):
Now has that increased dramatically over the
last three years or so sinceRussia's full-scale invasion.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (32:20):
So when I started looking at this,
when sanctions were reimposed onIran so that was back in 2018,
2019, it all started from acluster of about 35 ships.
After OFAC, the Office ofForeign Assets Control,
sanctioned, I think, someChinese division of a tank
company owned by Costco, china'sgovernment-owned shipowner, and
(32:44):
that's when everything sort ofstarted being driven underground
, and so that was 35.
Then, I think when Russiainvaded Ukraine, it was at about
250.
And today it's at 700, plustankers.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:56):
The culture of the maritime industry.
Are there any culturalproductions that you like for
seafaring?
I mean, do you like to watchmovies about?
No, or do you need to get awayfrom?
Was that a busman's holiday?
Do you need to get away fromthat in your time off?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (33:14):
Well, I'm kind of all consumed by the
maritime space at the moment.
I do have an app and I check mydark fleet ships on an app
which I think is terribly tragic.
So you know, I've got somespecial, very special ships that
I keep an eye on.
So this is a marine traffic app, but it's fantastic.
(33:35):
It's open source, but you canliterally put in the name of a
ship and you can see where it'sgoing.
And I always think of these 700plus tankers as being
recalcitrant children, and so ifI've got a special interest in
one, I'll just see what it'sdoing today.
J. Alex Tarquinio (33:51):
So there are 700 plus tankers in the Dark
Fleet.
That we know.
Is that what you're saying?
According to my methodology,yeah.
Okay, so there's 700 plustankers, but among those there
are a few that you findparticularly intriguing, and
you'll keep an eye on them withyour app.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (34:07):
Yeah, while I'm watching TV at home.
That's a very sad admission app.
Yeah, while I'm watching.
J. Alex Tarquinio (34:12):
TV at home.
That's terrible.
That's a very sad admission.
So there really isn't adifference between your work
time and your free time.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (34:21):
The maritime is an all-consuming
passion.
It is, it is, and especially atthe moment.
You know volatility andgeopolitical uncertainty, you
know you have to be really on24-7 because so much can change
Like in between flying back fromMalta and I got in at one
o'clock in the morning, went tobed, woke up and, estonian
(34:41):
there'd been some attemptedinterdiction by Estonia's navy
to a falsely flagged tanker andRussia had sent up a plane to
escort it into its waters.
This huge internationalincident.
And you know I'd had been on aplane and I missed it all.
J. Alex Tarquinio (35:01):
Well, and that was a huge international
incident, and the interestingthing is that I learned from
that is I guess within theBaltic Sea there is a sliver
that is not within the 12nautical miles that's Estonia or
Russia there's a small sliverof international water.
Is that correct?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (35:18):
Well, this ship had the right of
innocent passage, but whathappened is that all the
governments there, all themaritime authorities, have
decided that they're going toradio these ships that have
suspect insurance and getinformation.
And this ship, not only did itrefuse to give any directions,
(35:39):
but it was ordered to go intoEstonian waters and in the other
cases the master has agreed todo so and then the ship's been
seized or detained, but themaster refused and continued to
exercise the right of innocentpassage, even though you could
legally argue that as a shipwithout a flag, it had lost its
(36:03):
right to innocent passage.
But it was a really crucialflashpoint for what really shows
that the limits that Europeangovernments have on these ships
going through their waters, evenwhen they're reaching unclosed
conventions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (36:20):
And does the law of the sea does it require a
ship to comply with the localauthorities, even if it's just
outside of their waters ininternational waters?
It's just outside of theirwaters in international waters.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (36:32):
Well, I'm not sure, but I think this
is really.
It's untested, because normallya master, if he's asked by a
maritime authority in the watersthrough which he's sailing,
even when during aninternational navigation, most
masters would be trained andtaught and you would indeed
expect them to do so.
(36:52):
But in this case it didn'thappen and that was the reason,
I think, why things flared.
J. Alex Tarquinio (36:59):
No, that was a very interesting incident, the
geopolitics being as strange asthey are now.
Do you look at the nationalityof a captain or a master?
I mean, when you're analyzingan incident like this after the
fact?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (37:15):
Well, not really.
I mean, first of all you lookat the flag state.
We look to see if you can findout who the beneficial owner is.
Obviously, with a dark fleettanker you don't know, but you
would look at the flag state.
That will often tell you,especially with dark fleet
tankers, its affiliation.
In this case it had beenaffiliated to both Gabon and
Guinea-Bissau, both registersused for Dark Fleet.
(37:39):
The ISM manager was in, I think, india, which indicates Indian
crew.
These ships are typically inthe cases where we do know about
the crew on board.
In the cases where we do knowabout the crew on board, they
have Azerbaijan or Russianmasters or senior people on
board.
I've seen before.
(37:59):
But yeah, there's just you know, the registered owner is maybe
a brass plate company inSeychelles or Mauritius, so it
can be anything.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:13):
Now the beneficial owner is the owner of
the ship and not the cargo,correct.
But that beneficial owner maybe in a country that's quite
different from where the ship isactually registered.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (38:22):
Yeah, so the beneficial owner likely
is probably related to tradinghouse that is linked to one of
the Russian oil companies.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:32):
Okay, so in the case of the Dark Fleet,
we're talking about shippingRussian oil, so that makes sense
.
Are they also self-insuring?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (38:46):
and basically, doing everything in
Russia to get around thesanctions.
Some of them are, but itdepends on each ship, different
circumstances for each of them.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:54):
But so your role as an analyst, or part of
your role as an analyst, is tolook at these online breadcrumbs
this app, for example but alsotry and trace it back and figure
out who the beneficial owner is.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (39:06):
Yeah, and sometimes documents just
happen to fall off the back of atruck and make their way to me
legally of course, and thatgives me extra insight as well
Right right Through, perhaps, asignal chat, but I don't plan
wars on signal, I just want tohave you know that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (39:24):
That's very important, thank you.
No war planning involved, nowarplaning involved, and so this
data that you're coming up with, seeking beneficial owners and
flag registries does this helpanticipate threats perhaps?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (39:43):
see that okay we have a ship that
may be suspect that'sapproaching the.
Baltic.
I look at them on my app and Ican tell you that's Starfleet,
that's Starfleet, you can justtell.
J. Alex Tarquinio (39:52):
It sounds like the kind of work I would
expect to be done by Interpol orthe FBI, the MI6, the NSC.
I mean, I could understand as ajournalist I very well
understand the value of havingan independent eye but are you
doing the same kind of workthat's being done by Interpol or
MI6 to look at the ownership ofthese ships?
(40:14):
I don't know, that's true.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (40:18):
How would you know?
I don't know.
You'd like to think thatthey're watching as closely as
myself and a lot of other peoplethat follow the dark fleet,
because of the very, very graverisk it represents.
Let's hope so.
J. Alex Tarquinio (40:37):
And if there are risks detected or, you know,
heaven forbid if there is anincident, either a loss of life
or an ecological disaster, theagencies then involved after the
fact would be those agencies wetalked about.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (40:50):
Yeah, If there's an accident,
everybody will be squealingsaying why didn't you tell us
this?
Why didn't anybody do anything?
You know there will be absolutecarnage.
You know political carnage overan incident if it all goes
wrong, and you know people likeme will.
(41:10):
You know, we've been talkingabout it for years and years and
years, so you can only hopethat somewhere.
You know the regulators,governments, are doing what they
can.
Frank Radford (41:28):
And that's it from the Delegates Lounge.
We'd like to thank our esteemedguests who've graciously
allowed us to share theirhard-earned insights into what
really matters.
And then there's you, ourlisteners, who we hope are
sufficiently edified to clamourfor more of the same.
Do drop in for a weekly episodeon Thursday, or from time to
time if we're on the road, forspecial events, in which case
there'll be a bonus episode.
Subscribe wherever you listento podcasts There'll be a bonus
(41:51):
episode.
Subscribe wherever you listen topodcasts and if you like what
you've heard, please take amoment to rate or review the
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world affairs to find their wayto the Delegates Lounge.
You can connect with us on manypopular social media platforms
or reach out to us directly atinfothedelicatesloungecom.
We're a small team, so we can'trespond to every message, but
we will read them.
We're a small team so we can'trespond to every message, but we
will read them.
Our show this week was writtenand produced by the host and by
(42:13):
yours truly, executive producerFrank Radford.
Until next time, keep calm andcurious.
Welcome to the Delegates Lounge.
Pull up a chair.
I'm Alex Tarquinio, ajournalist based at the United
Nations here in New York City,and your emcee for this podcast
featuring some of the mostinfluential minds in the world
today.
Settle in for some rivetingtete-a-tete, available wherever
you listen to podcasts.
Welcome back to the secondepisode in our new series,
(00:36):
called Undercurrents, about theoceans and seas that unite us
and sometimes divide us.
We're launching this ongoingseries for the United Nations
World Oceans Day on June 8th.
In our first episode in theseries, an exclusive interview
with Estonia's Defense MinisterHanno Pevker, we delved into the
threats posed by Russia'sso-called Shadow Fleet.
(00:57):
Here's a description of theShadow Fleet by the Special
Envoy for Maritime Security ofthe Danish Ministry for Foreign
Affairs at a Greek-led UNSecurity Council debate in May.
Special Envoy for Marit (01:09):
Coastal states' capacities to monitor
and respond to maritime threatsabove and below the surface need
to be enhanced.
The increasing reliance onsubstandard vessels to evade
sanctions, including UNsanctions, poses a great risk to
the environment, seafarers,maritime safety and security.
These vessels are often old,poorly maintained,
(01:33):
insufficiently insured and sailwith their transponders off.
This is a challenge not only inthe North Sea and Baltic Sea,
but also the Straits of Malaccaand Singapore in the Sea and
elsewhere.
If we do not act and ensureeffective enforcement, it will
only be a matter of time beforean oil spill destroys a
(01:53):
coastline somewhere.
J. Alex Tarquinio (01:56):
Drawing upon her encyclopedic knowledge of
seafaring, our guest in thisepisode, Michelle Wiese Bockmann
, pulls back the veil on themany subterfuges involved in
maintaining this parallel fleetof old, unregistered or
sanctioned tankers thattransport not only Russia's oil
and petroleum products, whichhave been under price caps since
Russia's full-scale invasion ofUkraine more than three years
(02:17):
ago, but also facilitatessanctioned oil shipments from
Iran and Venezuela.
Michelle details the rusesinvolved in maintaining the
Shadow Fleet, which she refersto as the Dark Fleet.
Michelle is a veteran maritimeintelligence analyst and former
longtime writer with Lloyd'sList, one of the world's oldest
continuously running journalsthat has provided shipping news
(02:39):
from London for centuries.
I first spoke with her aboutthe Shadow Fleet for an article
in the New York Times when theprice cap on Russia's oil
exports was relatively new.
As always when I refer to anarticle, we'll include the link
in the show notes, along withsome articles by our guest.
Our discussion with Michellewas so informative that we're
(02:59):
bringing it to you in two parts,with the next episode covering
a wide range of maritime topics.
Here's our conversation,michelle.
(03:21):
Thank you so much for joiningus in the Delegates Lounge.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (03:25):
Thank you very much for having me.
J. Alex Tarquinio (03:28):
Well, we're glad that you could make time
for us, especially as you'vejust gotten back from Malta,
where you were a DistinguishedVisiting Fellow in the
International Maritime LawInstitute run by the IMO.
Perhaps you could start bytelling us about some of the
topics that were weighing mostheavily on everyone's minds
there.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (03:45):
Well, I was there to lecture on
maritime security and the legaland security implications of the
so-called dark fleet of shipswhich are shipping sanctioned
primarily Russian, venezuelanand Iranian oil, and it was.
You know, there's an enormousinterest in this topic and I was
speaking to really the nextgeneration of maritime leaders
(04:07):
and they're the people that aregoing to be at the International
Maritime Organization in thefuture and weighing really
important policy decisions onhow to deal with these emerging
threats.
And I have to say the IMO fromwhat I saw at the legal
committee when I sat through itin March say the IMO, from what
I saw at the legal committeewhen I sat through it in March,
(04:32):
is really struggling to dealwith this as a government and as
all marine stakeholders at themoment, because it is a very
real threat to the environment,to safety and also crew welfare.
J. Alex Tarquinio (04:40):
That's very interesting about the dark fleet
.
It's called many things.
Sometimes it's called theshadow fleet or the gray fleet.
I don't know if there's apreferred term shadow fleet,
dark fleet.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (04:52):
Well, there's not really.
I mean, it means differentthings to different people, and
this is one of the problems isthat you have to really try and
get a definition.
So I mean, I've had a stab ofputting some methodology
together and I can go throughthat.
So you know what I'm talkingabout, if that helps.
J. Alex Tarquinio (05:09):
Yeah, that would be good and are there like
do those terms actually meanslightly different things or are
they synonyms Dark fleet,shadow fleet, gray feet or is
there like a subtle difference?
in the meaning.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (05:21):
It's just the, you know, pick a word.
Some people call it theparallel fleet because it now
operates parallel to ordinary.
You know, establishedinternational regulations.
J. Alex Tarquinio (05:33):
But actually it would be good you offered and
I think it'd be really helpfulfor listeners who maybe have
heard these terms but aren't,you know, maritime security
experts.
Maybe you can start by actuallydescribing what the dark fleet
is for our listeners and how itoperates.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (05:48):
Okay, so, in terms of methodology, a
dark fleet, usually a tanker,because they're shipping oil and
sometimes natural gas, liquidpetroleum gas.
Generally they're elderly, sothey're aged 15 years or over,
and that's because there's lessof a market for them in the
established market.
They're also anonymously owned,so the ownership is hidden
(06:10):
behind Byzantine corporatestructures in jurisdictions
where it's impossible todetermine who the ultimate
beneficial owner is.
That's not unusual in shipping,but this is overly complex,
layer upon layer upon layer.
Then, of course, they have tobe solely engaged in these
trades, so it's not as if thetanker picks up a Saudi cargo
(06:31):
and delivers it to the US andthen goes back and gets a
Russian one.
These vessels exist purely forthis, to be deployed in these
trades.
And then, finally, they have tobe engaged in a range of
deceptive or illicit shippingpractices.
Finally, they have to beengaged in a range of deceptive
or illicit shipping practices.
So that can range from doingship-to-ship transfer of oil in
international waters to escapeport state control scrutiny, or
(06:53):
it can be those overly complexstructures.
It can be spoofing theirlocation, so using their vessel
tracking transponders to showthey're in one place when
they're really in another.
And there's flag hopping.
I could go on with the range ofdeceptive practices.
J. Alex Tarquinio (07:13):
What is flag hopping?
How does that work?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (07:20):
Well, so every ship has to register
under a flag or under aparticular country, and that
gives them the right to sail.
And there's a lot of what wecall open registers, and so
normally a ship will, during thecourse of its ownership, with
one person will, be registeredin Panama or Liberia or the
Marshall Islands.
They're the top three flagstates, as we call them.
But what we're finding now isthat, with the increasing
(07:43):
prevalence of sanctions, whichhave really ramped up in the
last six months, the flag stateshave been lent on.
There's been a lot of softdiplomacy to say to Panama, for
example look, we're the UK,we've sanctioned this tanker,
you must deflag it.
And so Panama has agreed to dothis.
They happily deflag the tanker,and then that tanker goes to a
(08:06):
lot of the opportunistic flagregistries that have set up in
Gabon, cameroon, san Marino,gambia, I could go on, and
they'll go to those registriesand then they'll flag there and
of course, that registry willthen be told that no, you must
deflag it.
And so you're seeing ships atthe moment that will flag hop.
(08:27):
So they've gone to three orfour flags in the last eight
months to keep one step ahead ofregulators and continue trading
.
J. Alex Tarquinio (08:36):
Has there been a big increase in the
business in those?
I don't know if it's fair tocall them secondary flag states.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (08:43):
They've exploded.
I mean, I've never seen thisgoing on in my 25 years of
looking at the industry.
But you've seen sort of like Icall it regulatory arbitrage,
where the ultimate owners ofthese ships are looking for the
place where they're going tohave the least oversight, the
least scrutiny.
And then you see countries like.
(09:05):
A great example at the momentis Gambia, which decided that
they would give a contract to acompany in Cyprus to operate the
registry on their behalf andthey got that contract in May.
And since May that registry hasgone from having a handful of
tugs and fishing vessels in itsfleet to having over 40 tankers,
(09:28):
most of them involved in eitherIranian or Russian shipping,
and a lot of them sanctioned,because clearly the owners of
those sanctioned vessels knowthat even though they've got a
US sanction on them, Gambia'smanager isn't looking very
closely, so they continuetrading.
And then you've also gotfalsely flagged vessels, where
they've gone to fraudulentregistries that don't really
(09:49):
exist.
They're just go-daddy websites,or I think I found one that was
just completely made upregistries and just pretending
to flag.
J. Alex Tarquinio (09:57):
Is Cyprus a key state in these registries?
Many years ago, when the UN wastrying to work on reunification
attempts on Cyprus, I didactually cover it and live there
for a bit, with the divisionand the unrecognized Turkish
part, and also, you know, thereare obviously a lot of Russians
living there at that time, maybeeven more now, or who have a
(10:17):
second residence there.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (10:19):
Well, yes and no.
It is the center.
So I think Sierra Leone, gambia, sautoma and Principe and
there's a couple other privatelyCyprus Incorporated companies
that are operating on behalf ofthese vessels, but really so,
just to be clear, the vesselswould be flagged in a country
(10:40):
such as Gambia or any of thoseyou just mentioned, but their
registry would be in Cyprus.
Is that how I understand it?
Yeah, so they've contractedprivate companies to operate on
their behalf, and sort ofeveryone gets cut, and of course
, this has been quite anopportunistic business for a
certain level of marine serviceprovider, and so I often say
(11:03):
that, when we're looking at theDark Fleet and the challenges it
poses, the EU and the UK haveto get their house in order
first, and the growth of theseregistries, often in tandem with
companies that are domiciled inthe EU or the UK, needs to be
addressed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (11:19):
There are sanctions going after the Dark
Fleet, for example, sanctions toparticular ships, and is it
effective?
Or is it a bit likewhack-a-mole, where they just
move from one registry or oneflag state to the next?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (11:32):
Well, that's a big question.
Have sanctions been effective?
I think, as a foreign policytool, sanctions have actually
driven the creation of the darkfleet and then the imposition of
sanctions directly on thevessels that are now shipping
the oil to circumvent thesanctions that were created in
the first place.
It's been really challenging.
(11:53):
Eu and UK sanctions have kindof been effective in the sense
that they have made logisticsmore challenging, but they have
also facilitated more deceptiveshipping practices.
You know those ship-to-shiptransfers that I was talking
about, the flag hopping, andwe're currently seeing in the
(12:14):
Baltic Sea ships that are, youknow, for all intents and
purposes, unflagged, uninsured,without all the safety
mechanisms that you need to makesure that a ship you know ship
that's going to sail throughthose environmentally sensitive
areas with a million tons of oilon board, they're all gone
because these ships have beendriven by sanctions to those
(12:34):
fringes.
So while they have made it morechallenging, they have not
really stopped things.
And of course you also have tolook at the complicity by the
receiver of the cargo.
So if we look at Iran, most ofthe recipients are oil terminals
in China, and when you look atRussian oil, that's also China
(12:56):
and mainly India, and so thoseships need to pass port state
control checks in order to birthand to discharge their cargo,
and that's happening despite thesanctions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (13:09):
So, even though dark fleet ships are
engaging in deceptive practicesturning off their transponders,
transferring oil at sea,ship-to-ship transfers you think
there's still some complicitywith the port authorities?
They should be able to seearound those practices.
Is that what you're saying?
Michelle Wiese Bockm (13:27):
Absolutely .
I mean, the new Trumpadministration has sanctioned
several oil terminals in China.
They have also sanctioned a lotof these ships.
I think 70 ships have beensanctioned since the
inauguration for Iran alone.
And you know, I look, I trackthem every day and I look at
them.
(13:47):
They've got no flag whatsoeverand there they are at a
particular terminal in NorthernChina discharging.
I mean, these vessels are.
They're really hiding in plainsight.
And you know it's themetaphorical two fingers to the
Western governments, from boththe Russian and Chinese
governments, because I knoweverybody knows it's written
(14:09):
about and watched daily.
J. Alex Tarquinio (14:12):
And you mentioned that these are
primarily tankers with oil andmaybe some liquefied natural gas
super cool gas you cantransport on tankers, and the
origin of that, of course, isthe sanctioned countries Russia,
venezuela and Iran.
What about, just as an aside,what about North Korea?
They also have sanctions.
It's mostly on other types ofgoods, though, so those would be
(14:33):
more cargo ships.
Is that also run by a darkfleet?
Are they coming in just onChinese regular ships, or is
there also some dark fleetpractices there?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (14:43):
Well, I'd like to say that North Korea
is the OG of the dark fleet,really, if you look at some of
the UN reports from the expertsthat have produced some really
compelling examples of deceptiveshipping practices right
through from you know what wewould call identity theft, where
(15:04):
they have tricked theInternational Maritime
Organization, which is a UnitedNations agency, into issuing IMO
numbers for vessels that don'texist.
So these numbers, you know, areissued when a vessel is built
and it stays with the vessel forits entire life, no matter how
many different names and flagchanges it has.
You know, north Korea organizeda system to pretend to build a
(15:26):
vessel and then swap IMOidentities and do all sorts of
skullduggery, and thosetechniques have been replicated
and gone on steroids in Russia.
Report on North Korea is nolonger being published.
There are still plenty ofreports that outline all of
(15:49):
these different tactics, whichare becoming increasingly
sophisticated as governments andship operators learn how to
mess around with AIS automaticidentification signals to make
ships do weird and magicalthings, which is very dangerous
on a navigational basis as well.
J. Alex Tarquinio (16:11):
Yeah, there are many secondary effects.
Obviously, the risks tonavigation, the legitimate or
the recognized fleet the fleetis not the dark fleet.
There's risk to that.
Also, insurance I'm assumingthat these dark fleet vessels
are not insured.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (16:24):
Well, we don't know because, unlike
the rest of the industry, whenit comes to marine insurance and
insuring against marine oilspills, there's an international
group of 12 clubs.
They insure now about 86% ofthe world's tonnage, but the
dark fleet operate outside thatand they have insurance on paper
(16:47):
.
I've tracked some absolutelydodgy companies that have
fraudulent websites.
There was one that pretended tooperate from Norway that really
operated from Russia.
It's now been shut down.
But if there was an oil spillthey are not able to meet
liability.
And again that's on the flagstates.
So these flag states are meantto check that these marine
(17:09):
insurers are able to cover thecost if there was an oil spill
and meet their obligations, andof course they can't and that's
just not being checked.
And bear in mind, if a ship anAfriMax-sized vessel, which is
the size of a tanker that wouldship out of the Baltic if that
had an accident while it wassailing through the Baltic Sea
(17:30):
and down the English Channel toIndia, that's about a billion
dollars worth of damage.
That's why coastal states areso worried about the
environmental threat thesepoorly maintained, elderly rust
buckets represent to those areas.
J. Alex Tarquinio (17:46):
Well, coastal states and also particularly
small island states, I mean,would be at risk.
They would have fewer resourcesto clean it up and there
wouldn't be.
We all remember the ExxonValdez and other crises where
there were spills but there wasa large company behind that to
lead the cleanup, and presumablythat would not be the case for
the dark fleet.
No, are there any accidents oroil spills we can already
(18:11):
definitively attribute to theDark Fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (18:14):
Well, there have been a few near
misses, like there was one on atanker called the Pablo, and so
that was an Afromax tanker andthat was in an area off east of
Malaysia where a lot of dozensand dozens of these tankers
gather and that's a very populararea to do ship-to-ship
transfers and to sort of waitand to store oil.
(18:37):
That Afromax exploded, killed alot of crew, but it was in
ballast.
That means it didn't have acargo on board.
Had it had a cargo on board,the whole world would have known
about that.
So that was a near miss.
And then there was one not solong ago called the Cirrus 1.
Again, that was in that area,it was spoofing its location and
(18:58):
it collided with a tanker, aproduct tanker that was properly
flagged and one of the mostrespected tanker owners in the
world.
It collided with that tanker,it had a cargo of naphtha aboard
and there was minor spills, butthat was it.
But once again, thathighlighted those navigational
(19:19):
dangers.
I've maintained that the DarkFleet is a very serious accident
waiting to happen and I'mliterally surprised there hasn't
been one by now, simply becausethe condition of these ships is
so terrible.
J. Alex Tarquinio (19:31):
Well, it's obviously a risk to the sailors
on the dark fleet ships,certainly and presumably because
they are working under thoseconditions.
They may not be the mostexperienced sailors, but it is
of course a risk to theestablished ships, for example
if there's a collision.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (19:47):
Well, I've spoken to some seafarers
that are on these ships and youhave to bear in mind every one
of these ships employs about 25seafarers and you know they're
not terribly well paid.
They're, you know, the unsungheroes of globalization and
world trade really Poorly paid.
They don't really know whenthey get on a ship that they're
(20:10):
going to be asked to do and getinvolved in these illicit
activities.
I mean, maybe the master insome cases is an exception to
that, but the rate of seafarerand vessel abandonment has never
been higher.
That's at world records.
And when you look at the shipsthat have been abandoned, many
of them are either flagged bythese flag states and they're
(20:30):
attracting really terrible poorquality tonnage, or they're dark
fleet tankers that there's nouse for them anymore and so
they're just abandoned.
J. Alex Tarquinio (20:41):
And you mentioned, many of these are
older vessels, 15 years or more.
I mean, it's not simply thatthey may not be as well
maintained.
The standards for tankers aredifferent now than they were,
for example.
I mean, are some of them so oldthat they might not have double
hulls?
Or, you know, they might not bedouble hulled?
No, they're not that old.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (20:59):
They're all double hulled.
I mean, the average age isabout 22 years.
Okay, most ships they have toadhere to a set, they have to
have regular surveys and adhereto a series of certificates and
inspections done by what we callclassification societies or
recognized organizations, tomake sure that this vessel is
(21:19):
structurally safe and seaworthy.
There have been cases where weknow that these ships owners are
choosing recognizedorganizations that aren't going
to look too carefully or wherethey can provide false
information, knowing that it'sjust going to be ticked.
I mean, a lot of this is abouttick boxing and just being able
to get the cargo through.
It's absolutely insane howlittle oversight there is for
(21:41):
these very, how little oversightthere is for these very, very
old ships.
J. Alex Tarquinio (21:48):
The Trump administration has been talking
about secondary sanctions,essentially if Trump runs out of
patience with Putin in thenegotiations to end the war in
Ukraine.
If they were to go after itmore effectively, could they do
something about the dark fleet,or is that just likely to
increase the size andcomplexities of the dark fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (22:08):
Well, I would probably say let's have
a look at what happened withIran and how that's working out
for them Not terribly well.
Trump likes to go on about hismaximum pressure zero exports.
That's not been achieved in thesix years since sanctions were
reimposed on Iran.
(22:30):
Six years since sanctions werereimposed on Iran and when Trump
when he was in office the firsttime, exports were more or less
at the same level they weretoday, I think you know,
anywhere between 1.4 to 1.8million barrels per day, and
that figure, no matter how manysanctions you put and extend on
the dark fleet, that hasn'tstopped the flow of oil because
(22:51):
you have complicity from Iranand complicity from China.
You know where the ships takeon the cargo, where the ships
are discharged, and when theysail they have the right of
innocent passage through areasof the sea where they you the
sea, when they go throughSingapore Straits.
So people often say why don'tyou just stop the ships?
(23:14):
Well, you can't because ofinternational conventions, and
so I very much doubt thatsecondary sanctions will do
anything other than drive moretankers into the market and
perhaps drive even furthernumbers to the fringes and
outside global regulation.
J. Alex Tarquinio (23:31):
On the other hand, the impetus behind these
sanctions is really twofold Oneis to create leverage in any
negotiations with Russia, butanother is to limit the income
that Russia makes from its saleof oil and gas which is directly
fueling the war.
So of course you'reanticipating my next question
Perhaps it's not stopping theseshipments of the dark fleet, but
(23:53):
is it reducing theprofitability of those oil and
gas shipments for Russia andhence reducing the amount of
money that they have to spend ontheir war in Ukraine?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (24:03):
Well, of course we get to the oil
price cap, which was, I believe,very much a flawed policy,
because that under the cap,western marine service providers
can get involved in shippingRussian oil to third countries
as long as they can prove thatthe cargo was sold below $60 a
barrel for crude, $100 a barrelfor refined products for crude,
(24:30):
$100 a barrel for refinedproducts.
At the moment, the oil pricecap, the cost of urals grade
crude and I think maybe evensome of the other grades, is
below $60 a barrel simplybecause of global market
conditions, and so that hasn'treduced the income.
When the oil was priced abovethe cap, yes, there was a
discount to Brent, which is themost traded oil index, but that
(24:53):
gap has narrowed over the years.
So you could argue that therehas been income lost as a result
.
But the oil price cap, it onlyreally works when the cargo is
priced below global prices.
J. Alex Tarquinio (25:08):
Well, of course, the oil price cap was
set years ago, when the price ofoil was much more elevated than
it is today.
I mean, should that be changed?
Should it be responsive?
Should it be actually adiscount to Brent instead, of, I
mean, $60?
Sounded cheap a couple of yearsago, but it doesn't today.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (25:27):
When the oil price cap was designed,
you remember, it was just afterEurope had been shut off from
natural gas and there was amassive price spike and there
was global inflation as a result, and so I think the regulators
back then were very, veryworried about removing oil from
the market and they wanted toprevent this inflation-inducing
(25:48):
price spike.
And of course, the globaleconomy is very different now,
and so is the oil market, sopotentially they could fiddle
around with the oil price cap,but from looking at it and how
it's worked from my point ofview, I think it's been a
failure, because the ultimateresult has been a tripling of
(26:10):
tankers in the dark fleet sinceit was imposed and ultimately, I
think you really want to getthat oil shipped on safer, newer
ships.
And what we have seen sincecrude oil fell below the price
cap in Russia we've seen moreprivate Greek-owned vessels
tankers come in to take thebusiness, because it's quite
(26:32):
lucrative business and I thinkthat's moving greater numbers
onto better quality tonnage andthat's a good thing for safety
and that's a good thing for theenvironment.
J. Alex Tarquinio (26:43):
There's more private Greek-owned vessels.
But then you said they're.
Are you talking about in thedark fleet or taking business
from the dark fleet?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (26:50):
Taking business Taking business,
taking business, yeah.
So what's happened is that alot of private Greek-owned
tankers have always been in thebusiness and shipping out of
Russia, especially becausediesel, which is another major
export, has priced below $100 abarrel Goodness, I think, nearly
(27:11):
for the last 18 months.
So there's always been asubsection of tonnage that has
been compliant with the pricecap that's been shipping out of
Russia.
But what we're finding now isthat there are more Greek-owned
tankers that are shipping euroscrude, because it's below that
$60 a barrel cap, which in a way, has made shipping safer
(27:35):
because there's more oil goingon, better quality, better
regulated tonnage that isproperly insured under the
international group.
So that's a good thing and itsort of negates the need for any
capital now, because what youwant is to get oil off those
(27:56):
ships, those dark fleet ships,because I think we've all agreed
that they're they're not verysafe and these are smaller.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:04):
Well, I think most shipping companies are
privately owned.
These are smaller privatelyowned Greek shipping companies.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:09):
There's about four or five billionaire
Greek ship owners thatspecialize in this business.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:16):
Now remind me .
There's some superlative inGreek shipping.
They're either the largest shipowning country, Largest ship
owning nation, Largest shipowning nation.
Now, what does that meanexactly?
Does that mean they own themost number of ships or the most
tonnage?
Or how does that define?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:33):
All of the above, all of the above.
J. Alex Tarquinio (28:35):
And those are private, private millionaire
ship owners.
Yeah, mostly To Americans.
We remember Jackie O andOnassis, so basically Onassis
type figures who are largeindividual ship owners.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (28:48):
Who are large individual ship owners
, yeah, I mean a few of themhave companies listed on the
NASDAQ or on the New York StockExchange, but they don't tend to
get into that business becauseof the reputational risk being
publicly listed.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:04):
Are we talking about a relatively small
number of billionaire shipowners?
How many individuals are wetalking about?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (29:10):
They would all tell you that they're
not actually billionaires.
They're the taxi drivers ofglobal trade, they would
describe themselves.
There's probably 50 or 60 bignames in Greece that dominate in
the shipping world and withinthe tanker world, maybe about 20
, 25.
Oh, wow, and they considerthemselves the taxi drivers of
(29:34):
global shipping, very humbly, ofcourse, while earning hundreds
of millions when the market isgood.
J. Alex Tarquinio (29:40):
I guess when the market is poor, that would
be like during economic crises.
By the way, aren't we seeing abig decline in shipping now
because of the uncertainty overthe Trump administration tariffs
?
I mean, we keep hearing storiesabout Long Beach seeing a huge
decrease in shipping.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (29:54):
Well, volatility is always good for
shipping.
There's always winners.
In COVID, for example,initially, if we're speaking on
tankers, oil demand dried up.
Initially rates were really bad, but when demand returned it
exploded and you had reallystrong rates, strong returns.
(30:15):
Plus.
You also had a recalibration ofglobal oil trade, with the
Houthis shutting down the RedSea, with the imposition of
sanctions on Russia, and thatsort of volatility is really
good for tankers, for tankersand when it comes to container
shipping, what happened withCOVID is when there was that
interruption to global trade andit resumed, the logistics were
(30:37):
all muddled up and that resultedin huge profits for container
ships because rates skyrocketed.
I'm not sure how things aregoing to pan out on container
shipping, because that's acompletely different area that
I'm looking at, but it's all toomuch for me, I have to say, is
Greece primarily the tankers andthe container shipping.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:03):
Is that more China, or am I stereotyping
there?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (31:07):
Well, the world's biggest container
ship operator is actually MSCMediterranean Shipping Group,
which is based in Switzerland.
So there you go, soSwitzerland's actually just by A
nice landlocked countryindustry really, but, yeah, a
(31:29):
lot of the operators.
And then of course you have tolook at the ownership, of the
tonnage that they may lease orcharter or own.
It all gets very, verycomplicated.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:38):
And you mentioned that the Greek
shipping companies.
That was actually bringing somemore safety having them
shipping at the Urals ratherthan the Dark Fleet ships.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (31:48):
Yeah, because you know who the
beneficial owner is and you knowthey have insurance.
J. Alex Tarquinio (31:56):
That's the main thing.
Not only do they probably havenewer vessels and maybe more
experienced crew, you also areconfirmed that they have
insurance and, I guess, a papertrail.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (32:03):
Yeah, and they operate within the
international law of shipping.
I mean this dark fleet.
If you're just speaking ontankers, we're looking at about
18% of the internationallytrading fleet.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:14):
Now has that increased dramatically over the
last three years or so sinceRussia's full-scale invasion.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (32:20):
So when I started looking at this,
when sanctions were reimposed onIran so that was back in 2018,
2019, it all started from acluster of about 35 ships.
After OFAC, the Office ofForeign Assets Control,
sanctioned, I think, someChinese division of a tank
company owned by Costco, china'sgovernment-owned shipowner, and
(32:44):
that's when everything sort ofstarted being driven underground
, and so that was 35.
Then, I think when Russiainvaded Ukraine, it was at about
250.
And today it's at 700, plustankers.
J. Alex Tarquinio (32:56):
The culture of the maritime industry.
Are there any culturalproductions that you like for
seafaring?
I mean, do you like to watchmovies about?
No, or do you need to get awayfrom?
Was that a busman's holiday?
Do you need to get away fromthat in your time off?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (33:14):
Well, I'm kind of all consumed by the
maritime space at the moment.
I do have an app and I check mydark fleet ships on an app
which I think is terribly tragic.
So you know, I've got somespecial, very special ships that
I keep an eye on.
So this is a marine traffic app, but it's fantastic.
(33:35):
It's open source, but you canliterally put in the name of a
ship and you can see where it'sgoing.
And I always think of these 700plus tankers as being
recalcitrant children, and so ifI've got a special interest in
one, I'll just see what it'sdoing today.
J. Alex Tarquinio (33:51):
So there are 700 plus tankers in the Dark
Fleet.
That we know.
Is that what you're saying?
According to my methodology,yeah.
Okay, so there's 700 plustankers, but among those there
are a few that you findparticularly intriguing, and
you'll keep an eye on them withyour app.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (34:07):
Yeah, while I'm watching TV at home.
That's a very sad admission app.
Yeah, while I'm watching.
J. Alex Tarquinio (34:12):
TV at home.
That's terrible.
That's a very sad admission.
So there really isn't adifference between your work
time and your free time.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (34:21):
The maritime is an all-consuming
passion.
It is, it is, and especially atthe moment.
You know volatility andgeopolitical uncertainty, you
know you have to be really on24-7 because so much can change
Like in between flying back fromMalta and I got in at one
o'clock in the morning, went tobed, woke up and, estonian
(34:41):
there'd been some attemptedinterdiction by Estonia's navy
to a falsely flagged tanker andRussia had sent up a plane to
escort it into its waters.
This huge internationalincident.
And you know I'd had been on aplane and I missed it all.
J. Alex Tarquinio (35:01):
Well, and that was a huge international
incident, and the interestingthing is that I learned from
that is I guess within theBaltic Sea there is a sliver
that is not within the 12nautical miles that's Estonia or
Russia there's a small sliverof international water.
Is that correct?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (35:18):
Well, this ship had the right of
innocent passage, but whathappened is that all the
governments there, all themaritime authorities, have
decided that they're going toradio these ships that have
suspect insurance and getinformation.
And this ship, not only did itrefuse to give any directions,
(35:39):
but it was ordered to go intoEstonian waters and in the other
cases the master has agreed todo so and then the ship's been
seized or detained, but themaster refused and continued to
exercise the right of innocentpassage, even though you could
legally argue that as a shipwithout a flag, it had lost its
(36:03):
right to innocent passage.
But it was a really crucialflashpoint for what really shows
that the limits that Europeangovernments have on these ships
going through their waters, evenwhen they're reaching unclosed
conventions.
J. Alex Tarquinio (36:20):
And does the law of the sea does it require a
ship to comply with the localauthorities, even if it's just
outside of their waters ininternational waters?
It's just outside of theirwaters in international waters.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (36:32):
Well, I'm not sure, but I think this
is really.
It's untested, because normallya master, if he's asked by a
maritime authority in the watersthrough which he's sailing,
even when during aninternational navigation, most
masters would be trained andtaught and you would indeed
expect them to do so.
(36:52):
But in this case it didn'thappen and that was the reason,
I think, why things flared.
J. Alex Tarquinio (36:59):
No, that was a very interesting incident, the
geopolitics being as strange asthey are now.
Do you look at the nationalityof a captain or a master?
I mean, when you're analyzingan incident like this after the
fact?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (37:15):
Well, not really.
I mean, first of all you lookat the flag state.
We look to see if you can findout who the beneficial owner is.
Obviously, with a dark fleettanker you don't know, but you
would look at the flag state.
That will often tell you,especially with dark fleet
tankers, its affiliation.
In this case it had beenaffiliated to both Gabon and
Guinea-Bissau, both registersused for Dark Fleet.
(37:39):
The ISM manager was in, I think, india, which indicates Indian
crew.
These ships are typically inthe cases where we do know about
the crew on board.
In the cases where we do knowabout the crew on board, they
have Azerbaijan or Russianmasters or senior people on
board.
I've seen before.
(37:59):
But yeah, there's just you know, the registered owner is maybe
a brass plate company inSeychelles or Mauritius, so it
can be anything.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:13):
Now the beneficial owner is the owner of
the ship and not the cargo,correct.
But that beneficial owner maybe in a country that's quite
different from where the ship isactually registered.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (38:22):
Yeah, so the beneficial owner likely
is probably related to tradinghouse that is linked to one of
the Russian oil companies.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:32):
Okay, so in the case of the Dark Fleet,
we're talking about shippingRussian oil, so that makes sense
.
Are they also self-insuring?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (38:46):
and basically, doing everything in
Russia to get around thesanctions.
Some of them are, but itdepends on each ship, different
circumstances for each of them.
J. Alex Tarquinio (38:54):
But so your role as an analyst, or part of
your role as an analyst, is tolook at these online breadcrumbs
this app, for example but alsotry and trace it back and figure
out who the beneficial owner is.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (39:06):
Yeah, and sometimes documents just
happen to fall off the back of atruck and make their way to me
legally of course, and thatgives me extra insight as well
Right right Through, perhaps, asignal chat, but I don't plan
wars on signal, I just want tohave you know that.
J. Alex Tarquinio (39:24):
That's very important, thank you.
No war planning involved, nowarplaning involved, and so this
data that you're coming up with, seeking beneficial owners and
flag registries does this helpanticipate threats perhaps?
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (39:43):
see that okay we have a ship that
may be suspect that'sapproaching the.
Baltic.
I look at them on my app and Ican tell you that's Starfleet,
that's Starfleet, you can justtell.
J. Alex Tarquinio (39:52):
It sounds like the kind of work I would
expect to be done by Interpol orthe FBI, the MI6, the NSC.
I mean, I could understand as ajournalist I very well
understand the value of havingan independent eye but are you
doing the same kind of workthat's being done by Interpol or
MI6 to look at the ownership ofthese ships?
(40:14):
I don't know, that's true.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (40:18):
How would you know?
I don't know.
You'd like to think thatthey're watching as closely as
myself and a lot of other peoplethat follow the dark fleet,
because of the very, very graverisk it represents.
Let's hope so.
J. Alex Tarquinio (40:37):
And if there are risks detected or, you know,
heaven forbid if there is anincident, either a loss of life
or an ecological disaster, theagencies then involved after the
fact would be those agencies wetalked about.
Michelle Wiese Bockmann (40:50):
Yeah, If there's an accident,
everybody will be squealingsaying why didn't you tell us
this?
Why didn't anybody do anything?
You know there will be absolutecarnage.
You know political carnage overan incident if it all goes
wrong, and you know people likeme will.
(41:10):
You know, we've been talkingabout it for years and years and
years, so you can only hopethat somewhere.
You know the regulators,governments, are doing what they
can.
Frank Radford (41:28):
And that's it from the Delegates Lounge.
We'd like to thank our esteemedguests who've graciously
allowed us to share theirhard-earned insights into what
really matters.
And then there's you, ourlisteners, who we hope are
sufficiently edified to clamourfor more of the same.
Do drop in for a weekly episodeon Thursday, or from time to
time if we're on the road, forspecial events, in which case
there'll be a bonus episode.
Subscribe wherever you listento podcasts There'll be a bonus
(41:51):
episode.
Subscribe wherever you listen topodcasts and if you like what
you've heard, please take amoment to rate or review the
show, as it helps others whoshare your abiding interest in
world affairs to find their wayto the Delegates Lounge.
You can connect with us on manypopular social media platforms
or reach out to us directly atinfothedelicatesloungecom.
We're a small team, so we can'trespond to every message, but
we will read them.
We're a small team so we can'trespond to every message, but we
will read them.
Our show this week was writtenand produced by the host and by
(42:13):
yours truly, executive producerFrank Radford.
Until next time, keep calm andcurious.
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