Episode Transcript
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SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
What if I told you
that China had a hundred-year
head start on European colonialdominance and threw it away?
What if the largest naval fleetin human history, 300 ships,
28,000 men, reached threecontinents and was deliberately
destroyed by bureaucrats whothought it was a waste of money?
What if one of history'sgreatest builders, a man who
(00:23):
created trade networks spanningfrom Africa to Indonesia, was
erased from the record becausethe people who came after him
didn't understand what he'dbuilt?
This is not speculation, thishappened.
In 1405, nearly a century beforeColumbus, a Chinese admiral
commanded a fleet that madeEuropean exploration look like a
(00:45):
scouting party.
His flagship was five timeslarger than the Santa Maria.
His fleet reached East Africa,mapped the Indian Ocean, and
established diplomaticrelationships with over 30
kingdoms.
He built infrastructure thatshould have lasted centuries,
trade routes, supply depots,relationships, a tribute system
that made participationprofitable for everyone
(01:07):
involved.
And then, within years of hisdeath, it was all destroyed.
The maps were burned, the shipswere dismantled, it became
illegal to even buildocean-going vessels.
The Europeans who came laterwere not discovering new routes.
They were following the mapsthat China had abandoned.
This is the story of Zhung Hu, acastrated slave who rose to
(01:31):
command the greatest fleet inhistory, who built a network
that could have changed theworld, and whose legacy was
erased by the very people heserved.
And this is about what his storyteaches us about first mover
advantage, network effects,sustainable competitive
advantage emotes, and thepolitical risks that can destroy
(01:53):
everything you build, even whenyou do everything right.
I'm Ari Van Gemeren, real estateinvestor, fund manager, and your
host today for the TimelessInvestors Show.
And today we're going to diveinto one of the most incredible
and unknown stories in history,brought to you as part of our
builders series, focusing ongreat builders of past and
(02:15):
present and how we can taketheir stories and make ourselves
better investors, moreunderstanding of risk, more
understanding of timelessprinciples that undergird our
system of seeking and buildingsomething timeless.
And I have to apologize inadvance to any of the listeners
who understand thepronunciations.
(02:35):
I'm doing my best, but the namesare a little more foreign for
me, but I'm going to do my best.
So before we dive into ZhungHo's story, let me set the stage
for just how extraordinary thiswas.
When we think about the age ofexploration, we think about
Columbus, Magellan, Vasco daGama, when we think about your
European ships discovering theworld in the 1500s.
(02:56):
But here's what a lot of peoplemay not realize.
China had already done it nearlya century earlier, at a scale
that makes European explorationlook like a scouting mission.
And the numbers are nearlyunbelievable.
Kung Ho's first expedition in1405 had 317 ships, 800 men.
(03:16):
Columbus's voyage, when hesailed the ocean blue in 1492,
three ships, 90 men.
For context, these ships werelarger than any European vessel
(03:37):
until the 1800s.
Some modern naval historiansdebate whether ships at large
could even have been seaworthywith medieval technology, but
the Chinese records are detailedand consistent across multiple
sources.
This wasn't just exploration,guys.
This was infrastructure buildingat imperial scale.
And the man who commanded it,his story is even more
(03:58):
remarkable than the fleet whocomm the fleet itself.
Dong Hu was born in Mahe, Mahu,in 1371 in Yunnan province,
southwestern China.
His family was Muslim.
His father and grandfather hadboth completed the Hajj to
Mecca, a journey of thousands ofmiles that demonstrated both
wealth and devotion.
But Yunnan was on the frontierof the Chinese Empire, and when
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Mahe was 10 years old, the Mingdynasty conquered the region.
He was captured, and like manyboys taken in conquest, he was
castrated and made a eunuchservant.
Common practice for creatingloyal court officials who could
not establish their owndynasties.
Think about that for a moment.
At age 10, this boy losteverything, his freedom, his
(04:41):
family, his future as it wouldhave been.
He was sent to serve in thehousehold of Judi, a prince and
military commander.
And this is where the storystarts to get really interesting
because Mahu didn't justsurvive, he thrived.
He proved himself brilliant inmilitary strategy.
He was physically imposing.
Some records suggest he was oversix feet tall, which was
(05:03):
exceptionally rare for the timeon any continent.
He was loyal, capable, andutterly dedicated to Zhu Di.
So when Zhu Di launched a civilwar to seize the throne from his
nephew, Ho was on his side.
The campaign was brutal.
Multiple battles, palaceintrigue, years of conflict, but
they won.
(05:24):
And in 1402, Zhu Di became theYongle Emperor.
And one of his first acts was topromote Mahu and give him the
honorific title, Zhonghu, andplace him in command of
something unprecedented, atreasure fleet that would
project Chinese power across theknown world.
This is a rags to riches storyon an almost unimaginable scale.
(05:45):
A boy from a conquered province,an ethnic and religious
minority, castrated and enslavedat the age 10, rose to command
the largest naval force in humanhistory.
The modern parallel would belike if a refugee kid who was
castrated became both Jeff Bezosand the head of the U.S.
Navy combined.
And here's the first investinglesson.
(06:07):
Talent and loyalty compound whengiven opportunity.
Zhu Di didn't just reward ZhangHo for past service.
He gave him resources to buildsomething that would expand the
empire for generations.
He invested in capability, notjust connections.
True meritocracy, by the way,true meritocracy, which, total
(06:28):
side note, I took a long coursein college on China.
And one of the most fascinatingaspects of Chinese culture was
the importance of a large examthat people would sit for.
And it was like a realopportunity to rise from nothing
to something great, the value ofeducation, hard work, and true
(06:49):
meritocracy.
And this man is a great example.
So between 1405 and 1433, ZhungHo led seven major expeditions.
Let me walk you through what wasactually built.
The first voyage was massive,the aforementioned numbers.
The fleet visited Java, Sumatra,Sri Lanka, and India.
The stated purpose wasdiplomatic, announced the new
(07:10):
emperor, established traderelationships, and bring back
envoys who would acknowledgeChinese superiority.
But what Zhengho was reallydoing was building
infrastructure.
And, I will add, feels verysimilar to what China is
attempting to do today acrossthis entire region.
At each port, he establishedrelationships with local rulers.
He mapped harbors, currents, andwind patterns.
(07:31):
He set up supply depots andrepair facilities.
He left behind Chinesecommunities who would facilitate
future trade.
This wasn't just a voyage, itwas the first phase of network
construction.
And when he returned, he broughtenvoys from over 30 kingdoms to
Beijing.
The message was clear.
China is open for business, andwe have the capability to reach
(07:52):
you anywhere.
Investing lesson one, firstmover advantage in relationship
building is massive.
Zhung Ho wasn't justestablishing trade routes, he
was defining the terms ofengagement before anyone else
could.
The second voyage went deeperinto India, reaching the Kingdom
of Calicut, a major trading hub.
But this voyage also revealedsomething important about
Zhonghe's strategy.
(08:13):
He was willing to use force, butonly to protect the system he
was building.
When a Chinese pirate base inSumatra threatened trade routes,
Zhenghe crushed it, not asconquest, but as infrastructure
protection.
Think about this in modernterms.
Amazon doesn't just buildwarehouses, it fights
counterfeiters, it blocks badactors, and it protects the
(08:34):
marketplace.
The infrastructure only works ifit is secure.
Zheng He understood this 600years ago.
Investing lesson two, protectyour supply chains.
Infrastructure without securityis just a target.
Stay on top of it.
The third voyage was the firsttime Zheng He commanded multiple
fleets simultaneously.
He was delegating, buildingsystems, creating standard
(08:57):
operating procedures.
This is when the tribute systemreally started to take shape.
And this is where Zheng Ho'sbusiness model becomes
fascinating.
Here's how the tribute systemactually worked.
Local kingdoms would acknowledgethe Chinese emperor as superior.
They would send periodic giftsand envoys, and in return, China
would provide protection, tradeaccess, and gifts.
Here's the interesting part.
China typically gave more ingifts than they received in
(09:19):
tribute.
European observers later notedthis and thought the Chinese
seemed like idiots.
Why would you give away morethan you receive?
But Zhenghe understood somethingthey didn't.
He was buying the network.
By making the deal attractive,kingdoms wanted to participate.
There was no need for conquest.
There was no need for occupationcosts.
There were no local resistance.
(09:40):
It was voluntary because theeconomics worked for everyone.
This is Amazon's playbook.
Again, lose money on primeshipping to own the customer
relationships.
Zhung Ho was willing to lose onindividual transactions to own
the trade network.
Investing lesson three.
Sometimes the best investment isthe one where everyone wins.
Imagine that.
(10:01):
Sustainable competitiveadvantage comes from making your
partners successful at the sametime as you.
The fourth voyage is wherethings really get remarkable, as
if they haven't been remarkableenough yet.
Zhenghe reached the coast ofEast Africa, modern-day Somalia
and Kenya.
This was the first directcontact between China and East
Africa.
The fleet reached Hormuz in thePersian Gulf, visited Arabia,
(10:24):
and mapped the East Africancoast.
And here is a detail thatcaptures the absurdity of the
scale.
Zhenghe brought back giraffes.
The Yangol Emperor thought theywere Quilin, mythical Chinese
creatures that appeared when awise ruler governed justly.
The giraffe became proof of theemperor's virtue.
But beyond the symbolism, thinkabout what this voyage
(10:46):
represented.
Geographic diversification hadstarted to create asymmetric and
information advantages.
Zheng He now knew trade routes,harbor deaths, seasonal winds,
and political structures acrossthree continents.
No European had this knowledge.
No other Asian power had thisreach.
In modern terms, this is likeBridgewater's radical
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transparency and globalintelligence network.
Information asymmetry is alpha.
Investing lesson four (11:12):
the more
you know about markets others
haven't reached, the moreopportunities you see that they
cannot.
I would make a corollary to saybeing in your own market and
investing in your own market asa real estate investor that you
genuinely understand isinformation asymmetry and power,
right?
We see this, we see thishappening in all of our markets
right now.
(11:32):
We're here, we see it, we knowwhat's happening, it gives us a
huge opportunity.
The fifth voyage revisited theAfrican coast and strengthened
existing relationships.
When Zhonghe returned, 18kingdoms sent tribute missions
back to China.
That's relationship maintenance.
In modern terms, customerretention, keeping in touch with
the customer, knowing what theywant.
(11:52):
The first voyage wasacquisition.
The fifth voyage was provingthat the system works, that
relationships are sustained, andthat the network is reliable.
Investing lesson five,relationship maintenance is
recurring revenue.
The customer you already have isworth more than the one you
haven't yet acquired.
By the sixth voyage, the systemwas mature, multiple fleets
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operating simultaneously,standardized procedures, supply
chains that ran themselves.
Some historians believe thisvoyage actually reached
Australia, though that isdebated.
What is not debated is thatZheng Ho was now operating a
global network with minimalcentral oversight.
He had built a machine.
You can probably guess,investing lesson six, at scale,
(12:38):
you can be everywhere at once,but only if you build the
systems, you don't run a herooperation.
My company is in the process ofmoving from hero operations to
scale and reproducibility.
It is a process.
There's a lot to learn fromZhenghe's story.
The seventh and final voyage waslaunched when Zheng Ho was 60
(13:00):
years old.
He reached over 20 countries,reinforced relationships, and
brought back envoys.
He died on the return journey,likely near the coast of India,
and he was buried at sea.
And here's where the tragedybegins, because Zheng Ho had
built a system that should haveoutlived him.
He had created infrastructure,he had established
(13:21):
relationships, he had trainedofficers, and he had documented
procedures, but he couldn'tprotect it from politics.
So here's what happened after hedied in 1433.
The Yongul Emperor, Zheng Ho'spatron and protector, died in
1435.
The new emperor was heavilyinfluenced by Confucian scholars
who had always hated thetreasure fleet expeditions.
(13:44):
Why did they hate them?
First, the cost.
These voyages were expensive,and the Confucian bureaucrats
saw them as wastefulextravagances.
Second, ideology.
Confucian scholars believedChina had everything it needed.
They saw maritime trade asbeneath Chinese dignity,
something for merchants andbarbarians, not a proper
(14:04):
emperor.
Third, power.
The eunuch admirals, like ZhengHe, represented a competing
power center.
Confucian bureaucrats wanted tobe the only advisors to the
emperor.
So in 1436, the newadministration made a series of
decisions that would changeworld history.
They burned Zheng He's logs,maps, and records.
(14:25):
They dismantled the treasurefleet.
They made it illegal to buildocean-going ships with multiple
masts.
They turned China inward for thenext 400 years.
Think about what was lost.
Detailed maps of the IndianOcean, African coast, and
Southeast Asia, traderelationships with 30 plus
kingdoms, maritime technologythat was a century ahead of
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Europe, infrastructure that hadtaken 28 years to build,
knowledge that could have andprobably would have given China
global dominance.
Within 50 years, Portugueseexplorers were sailing the
routes Zheng Ho had mapped.
They were discovering placesthat had been on Chinese maps
for decades.
The Dutch, Spanish, and Britishfollowed.
They built colonial empires onthe network China had abandoned.
(15:11):
This is one of history's greatwhat-ifs.
What if China had maintained thetreasure fleet?
What if they had kept buildingon Zheng Ho's infrastructure?
The modern parallel, and there'smany, are painful to consider.
Xerox invented the graphicaluser interface, the mouse, and
the laser printer in the 1970s.
Their own executives didn't evenunderstand what they had.
Steve Jobs walked through XeroxPark, saw the future, and built
(15:35):
Apple.
China had a hundred-year headstart on global maritime
dominance.
They threw it away becausebureaucrats who had never left
Beijing decided it wasn't worthmaintaining.
This is the ultimate investinglesson and timeless lesson for
all civilizations.
Political risk can destroyeverything you build, and it
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often comes from inside, notoutside.
In fact, if there was a timelessrefrain to the stories of
imperial rise and fall that wehave studied over the course of
the Timeless Investor Show,articles we produced, everything
we've done, it is this.
The death of great civilizationscomes from inside, not outside.
So let me pull these together.
Let's go back through thelessons and let's talk about how
(16:17):
they imply apply to moderninvesting.
So lesson one was first moveradvantage compounds.
Zhenghe built and establishedrelationships and infrastructure
that gave China access tomarkets no one else could.
That advantage could havecompounded to the benefit of
China for centuries.
But first mover advantage onlymatters if you maintain it.
In real estate, this is why wefocus on supply-constrained
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markets.
The barriers to entry,geography, zoning, political
opposition do create a moat, butyou have to maintain your
position.
You can't just build and walkaway.
In private equity, this is whyBlackstone obsesses over
relationships with limitedpartners.
First mover advantages incapital access compound as well,
but only if you nurture andmaintain those relationships.
(17:01):
Lesson two, scale can createunstoppable momentum.
300 ships showing up is acompletely different game than
three ships showing up.
When Columbus arrived in theCaribbean, he negotiated from
weakness.
He did still triumph, to beclear, and we have covered
Spain's extensive triumph in theNew World many times on this
show.
(17:21):
When Zhengha arrived in Calicut,he negotiated from overwhelming
strength.
Scale isn't just aboutefficiency, it's about changing
the nature of negotiations.
In modern terms, when BerkshireHathaway shows up with$100
billion in cash, sellers takethe call.
When a small fund shows up with$10 million, they're one of 100
bidders.
If you have a capital advantage,use it.
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Go big enough that competitioncan't respond.
This is part of the reason ourfirm focuses on mid-market sized
buildings.
We believe we have an asymmetricadvantage in what we're buying
because we have capitaladvantages versus many of our
competitors who bid on the samestyle of building.
We have a moat in short in theareas where we play.
Lesson three.
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Zheng Ho's tribute system wasvoluntary.
It cost less, it created willingpartners, and it could have been
sustained indefinitely.
The modern parallel, in myopinion, is something again like
Berkshire Hathaway.
Buy good businesses and leavemanagement alone model works
much better in the long termthan private equity's strip and
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flip model, right?
You know the model.
Buy something, leverage debt,saddle it with an enormous
amount of debt, carve the staffin half, and then try to flip it
for a profit.
What good does that create foranybody?
When you force a deal throughleverage and aggressive
restructuring, you createresistance.
When you make the dealattractive for everyone, it is
sustainable.
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Lesson four, informationasymmetry is alpha.
Zhungho's maps and knowledgewere worth more than all the
treasure he brought back.
He knew wind patterns, harbordeaths, political structures,
and trade goods across threecontinents.
That information was worthkingdoms.
This is why Ray Dalio obsessesover information flow, why
Bridgewater built a globalintelligence network, why
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Renaissance Technologies hiresphysicists and mathematicians.
Alpha is knowing what othersdon't.
In my business, this is why westudy supply constraints,
entitlement timelines, andzoning regulations in markets
other investors ignore.
We build on-the-groundrelationships.
We work to develop informationasymmetry.
We want to know what deals aredistressed, where the
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opportunity is, and how we'regoing to get it faster than our
competitors.
That information advantagecompounds over time.
Lesson five, systems outlastindividuals, living or dead, if
you let them.
Zhenghe built a system thatshould have run for centuries
after his death, but newleadership destroyed it because
they didn't understand itsvalue.
(20:00):
This is a secession planningproblem that destroys family
businesses, investment firms,and empires.
If your wealth is built on you,it dies with you.
If your wealth is built onsystems, it can compound across
generations.
I like to think about the Waltonfamily as a clutch example of
this.
(20:20):
Many, many, many wealthyfamilies go the cycle of three.
The first generation builds it,the second generation maintains
it, the third generation losesit.
What distinguishes the Waltonfamily's success, right?
They have built a system aroundpassing ownership, that
ownership is sacrosanct, and adistributed command network so
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that nobody can ever liquidateor sell their shares.
The family is ignored and builtinto a culture of ownership and
long-termism.
That is why they've been sosuccessful.
And that's why they're stillhere.
And that's why other greatbuilders in history have nothing
left.
The Vanderbilts are a classicexample of this.
They built something great, andthe next generations were not
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trained in running it, and theylost everything.
Lesson six, hard one, and a bigone for today.
Political risk can and willdestroy everything.
This is the hardest lesson andthe most important.
Zhunghe built somethingincredible, but he couldn't
protect it from bureaucrats whodidn't understand what they were
destroying.
In modern terms, you can build agreat rent, a real estate
(21:27):
portfolio in a place likeVenezuela, and it can be taken
away from you overnight.
You can build the best business,but regulatory changes can kill
it.
You can build generationalwealth, but the government will
and can reach into your pocketand take it from you.
This is why diversification,once you achieve great wealth,
isn't just about asset classes.
(21:48):
It is about jurisdictions,political systems, and time
horizons.
This is why family offices,particularly non-U.S.
family offices, hold assetsacross multiple countries.
This is why sophisticatedinvestors think about permanent
capital and asset protection,not just high returns.
This is why we field calls allthe time from family offices
outside the United Stateslooking to park capital here.
(22:10):
Why?
They're wealthy and they knowthat our legal system, as flawed
as it is in many ways, willprotect their assets.
And that's why the United Statesis a beacon for investment in
infrastructure and a place toplace capital.
You are not just building yourwealth, you are protecting it
from people who might notunderstand its value.
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So, what would Junghood dotoday?
Let me translate his principlesinto modern investment
strategies.
First, he would build permanentinfrastructure, things that
create a recurring value.
In real estate, this meanscontrolling all the aspects of
your business, right?
Owning the best properties,controlling the management,
controlling the contracting,controlling the mechanical work
(22:51):
that goes into it.
In private equity, frankly, thismeans building portfolio
companies with sustainablecompetitive advantages, not just
building financial engineeringfor a quick flip.
I will hammer this point and Iwill do additional episodes on
this.
It's such a legitimate andpowerful point, guys.
Modern private equity doesn'tcreate value.
I said it, I stand by it.
Infrastructure thinkingcompounds, transaction thinking
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extracts and doesn't last forthe long term.
Second of all, make your partnersuccessful.
Okay, it's not just about you.
The tribute system Zhunghe builtworked because it was a good
deal for everyone.
Kingdoms participatedvoluntarily because they
benefited.
In modern investing, this is theBerkshire model.
Buy good businesses, leave goodmanagement in place, and provide
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the capital and support and letthem run.
It's why Costco succeeds whereother retailers fail.
They make suppliers successful,employees successful, customers
successful.
Everyone wins, so the system issustainable.
Home Depot is another goodexample of this.
If you haven't read the founderof Home Depot's book, I highly
recommend it.
It's incredible, definitelyworth digging into.
(23:58):
It was a whole premise on makingyour employees part of the
culture.
Henry Ford did this.
I just finished Henry Ford'sbook.
I'm going to do an episode on iteventually.
Henry Ford paid more thaneverybody else.
He made sure his employees werewell taken care of, that they
had an excellent situation setup.
And Ford did really, really wellfor a really long time.
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Arguably they forgot about thisat some point.
And then you've seen whathappens since.
Here's the key thing (24:24):
if you're
extracting value from every
relationship, you're buildingyour home on sand, not solid
ground.
If you're creating value foreveryone in the network, you are
building your home on solid rockfoundation.
Information advantage over bruteforce.
Today this means spend timeunderstanding markets that
others ignore.
(24:44):
Study the supply dynamics.
Study your market.
Be deep into it.
Okay.
There's a fantastic book Ihighly recommend to anyone,
written by the father of myformer boss, Ken Fisher, Philip
Fisher.
His book is called Common Stocksand Uncommon Profit.
Philip Fisher was a very big fanof owning like five to seven
stocks at max and deeply, deeplyunderstanding your companies.
(25:08):
He had a fantastic term calledscuttle butt.
Understand the scuttle butt.
And the way he would do it, hewould go to the competitor.
So if you like in an example,he's investing in a bank, right?
He'd go to a competitor bank andhe'd be like, tell me about
Union Bank.
What is it like competing withthem?
What is it like, you know,whatever?
And then they would be like, oh,they're great at this and
they're bad at this.
And he always said, you get thebest information from the
(25:30):
competitors because they'll tellyou all the negative things, but
they'll also tell you the partof it that is really difficult.
Information asymmetry, critical.
Protect what you build.
Zhengho crushed pirates.
He intervened in civil wars whenthey threatened trade routes.
He used force strategically toprotect the system.
In modern terms, legalstructures matter.
Asset protection matters.
(25:50):
Succession planning matters.
Insurance matters.
Don't skimp out on it.
Protect what you built.
You are building your defenseson your empire against the
Confucian bureaucrats who wantto burn it down.
And lastly, think in decades,not quarters.
If there is a timeless principlethat I could not get more
behind, it is long-term thinkingand all-style of investing.
(26:14):
The treasure fleet and theinfrastructure that Zhenghe
built took 28 years to build.
The relationships took decadesto mature.
The infrastructure was meant tolast centuries.
Then bureaucrats who thought interms of annual budget destroyed
it all.
This is the fundamental tensionin investing.
Short-term thinking killslong-term value.
(26:34):
If you're managing to quarterlyearnings, you'll make different
decisions than if you'rebuilding for 50 years.
This is a reason Berkshiredoesn't give earnings guidance.
It's why family offices thinkgenerationally.
They think in 100-yearinvestment increments.
It's why we focus on cash flowand supply constraints instead
of cap rate compression andquick flips.
Time is the investor's greatestadvantage if you are patient,
(26:58):
wise, and prudent enough to useit.
Jungho's story is one of thegreatest in human history and
one of the most tragic.
A castrated slave who rose tocommand 300 ships, who built a
network that spanned threecontinents, who established
trade relationships andinfrastructure that could have
given China global dominance forcenturies, and then watched it
all get destroyed by bureaucratswho did not understand what they
(27:20):
had.
The lessons for modern investorsare clear.
If you're building somethingmeant to last, you're not just
building for yourself.
You're building for the nextgeneration and the generation
after that.
That's what Zheng Ho did.
That's what the great buildersthroughout history have always
done.
And that is the premise of ourbuilder series.
What timeless principles can wetake to learn in this fast-paced
(27:45):
TikTok world of quick of quickhits and quick dopamine rushes?
We want to go back tofundamental principles.
And these fundamental principlesare what separate wealth that
compounds from wealth thatdissipates over time.
If you enjoyed this deep diveinto Zhung Ho's life and
investing lessons from histreasure fleet, subscribe to the
Timeless Investors Show.
(28:05):
We release episodes every weekexploring the builders, the
empires, the crashes, thevillains, all of the different
things across 5,000 years ofrecorded human history that give
us timeless principles to drivelong-term wealth creation.
You can read more analysis likethis on the Timeless Investor
(28:25):
Substack.
Just Google the TimelessInvestor.
We dominate the front page.
It's all there for you.
And if you're an accreditedinvestor interested in supply
constrained real estate withstructural modes, the kind of
infrastructure investing Zhengho would understand, reach out
to me directly.
Thank you.
Think well, act wisely, buildsomething timeless.