EP06: FII Selling Returns, Volatility Low – Calendar Spread in Play | July 14 (Monday)

Welcome to Episode 6 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay Kurtkoti Founder QCAlpha breaks down the global setup, sector flows, volatility signals, and trade ideas for the day.

🔥

Top Highlights:

📉 Market Overview:

• SGX Nifty at 25,188, flat to mildly negative.
• Friday close: Nifty dipped below key support at 25,200, entering a volatile but low IV zone.
• Current mean reversion level: 25,300; buy near 25,000 levels.

🌍 Global Cues:

• US Markets down: Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.33%
• Weakness driven by Meta news and Trump tariff escalation.
• Asian markets mixed: Nikkei & Taiwan down, Shanghai, Hangseng, Jakarta up.

🛢️ Commodities:

• Brent Crude: $70.42
• Gold: $3,356/oz
• Silver (MCX): ₹111506 – showing strength
• Gold MCX: ₹97,373, watch for breakout above ₹97,600
• Crude & NatGas: Neutral
• Bitcoin: Trading strong around ₹1.18L

📊 FII/DII Data:

• FIIs sold ₹5,154 Cr, continuing their exit.
• DIIs bought ₹3,558 Cr; net DII inflows ~₹12,000 Cr MTD.
• FIIs remain net sellers for July: ₹10,284 Cr.

📉 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):

• Broad weakness across sectors:
  • Capital markets, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, Auto, Infra → all negative.

• Nifty TK Algo Signal:
  • Slow Signal Sell: 25,438
  • Fast Signal Sell: 25,363

⚙️ Options & Volatility:

• IV (17 July): 9.17 (very low)
• IV (24 July): 10.0
• Suggests short-term suppression, but vol bounce likely next week.
• Calendar Spread Idea:
  • Buy 24 July straddle, Sell 17 July straddle
  • Take advantage of IV differential (long calendar)

📌 ATM Straddle (17 July @ 25,200):

• Trading at ₹244 → 1 SD range ≈ 25,000–25,300

🎯 Take:

• Low volatility = great time to initiate calendars
• Market remains in mean-reverting mode between 25,000–25,300
• Short-vol trades early in the week, prepare for vol expansion later

👍 Like what you hear? Follow, Share, and Rate the podcast.

🎧 Join us tomorrow again for your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins.