May 5, 2025 • 25 mins
"When you learn the game, it's obvious when to buy and sell."
In this special episode of Up Your Average, Keith and Doug sit down with legendary trader Stan Weinstein, author of "Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets." With over 50 years of experience, Stan breaks down:
- Why buy-and-hold investing is outdated
- How to time market moves with confidence
- The psychological traps that derail most investors.
🔑 Topics: Technical analysis, market psychology, timing vs. time in the market, 401k growth hacks.
📞 Want more? Connect with Stan, Keith, and Doug below:
- Stan's Global Trend Alert hotline - 954-241-7365
- Keith's LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/keith-tyner-a941a58/
- Doug’s LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-shrieve-0271989/
- Gimbal Financial website - https://www.gimbalfinancial.com
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Stan (00:00):
Back in 1973, it was the Nifty Fifty and Avon, Polaroid
(00:04):
Xerox, and blah, blah, blah. Andyou know, it's the same
nonsense. We had The MagnificentSeven. I said, oh, I've seen
this movie before. It's the samething.
They just change differentactors and costumes. It never
changes because human naturenever changes. It's the same
psychology.
Keith (00:22):
Welcome to the Up Your Average podcast, where Keith and
Doug give no nonsense advice tolevel up your life. Buckle up
and listen closely to up youraverage. Alright, Doug. Here we
(00:43):
are.
Doug (00:44):
Hey. We've got an exciting, exciting day for us
today.
Keith (00:48):
If I could, if I can get out of the way and show my
bookcase over here, I don't havetons of different books. There's
a lot of repeat ones I can givethem away. But man, what about
secrets and profiting and bulland bear markets? What do think
about this book?
Doug (01:03):
I've had that book for a long time. I don't remember when
I bought it. It was early on inmy career. And we had the joy of
actually meeting Stan a couplemonths ago, thanks to Mark
Minervini. It's
Keith (01:20):
a privilege to do something you love doing. And I
don't know if other industriesare as generous with their
wisdom as our industry is.People will get like, they'll
give one another their tradesecrets. They'll give them
everything with a generositythat I never expected when I got
into the
Doug (01:37):
We've said this before. I mean, you could put a person's
strategy on the front page ofthe Wall Street Journal or on a
website somewhere, and it couldbe the greatest strategy in the
world, but all strategies havetimes where they just don't do
well. And so with confidence, wecould tell everybody the secret
sauce in how we make ourdecisions.
Keith (01:55):
And people just won't do a lot of it, so they just won't
do the repetition of it.
Stan (01:59):
No, it
Doug (01:59):
takes discipline. It takes blood, sweat, and tears.
Keith (02:03):
And so with that, we thought, you know, as we're
doing Up Your Average and we'representing you ideas that will
step up your lifestyle for youin a variety of different ways,
we thought we'd just introduceone of our friends too.
Doug (02:15):
He's one of the best traders of all time. And to be
able to talk with him and learnfrom him has just been one of
the greatest blessings of mylast year.
Keith (02:25):
It's been a lot of fun. And so with no further ado, we
want to introduce to you ourfriend Stan Weinstein. Stan, I
thought we would hang outtonight to just kick off and
talk about a little bit ofmarket history. And I started my
first day of straight commissionas a stockbroker was October
1987.
Stan (02:47):
Perfect timing. Don't they say timing is everything?
Keith (02:51):
And that was a traumatizing moment. The people
that had some gray hair and somewisdom, face was traumatized
when they came out of theiroffice. They didn't know what to
do. I just thought, well, Imight as well go forward and see
what happens. But when I look atthe history of the market and
I'm thinking about the 1960s andthe 1970s, when you probably
(03:13):
jumped in, I thought maybe ifyou would talk to us about what
the market was like then, andthen we can move forward to what
we're at today.
How's that?
Stan (03:21):
I think that's a great kickoff point. So here we go.
First of all, people will say tome, Stan, you wrote that book
back in 1987, early 'eighty '8.Is it still valid because the
market is now, that's it, but myhair was black. Anyway, the
market was, you know, adifferent animal to a degree
(03:44):
because we had specialists andthings didn't move quite as
rapidly.
But the truth is supply anddemand, there's always gonna be
supply and demand that neverchanges, and human nature, you
know, fear and greed neverchanges also, so they've spent
the game up. But it's reallystill the same thing. And now
we'll go back. Like, if you takea look at 1973, which I actually
(04:08):
got in the market in 1965, goingback a lot of days. But anyway,
in 1973, we had the nifty 50 ofthose days, which was Avon,
Polaroid, Xerox.
And if you wanna be acontrarian, the perfect
contrarian view, they calledthose stocks one decision
stocks. You only had to buythem, you never had to sell
(04:29):
them. Well, we know whathappened to those stocks
thereafter with one decision.But it reminded me so much in
those days, those one decisionstocks eventually crashed. Some
of them, like Polaroid, aregone.
Recently, we had the MagnificentSeven, and these stocks were
great. They're good companies,but they're gonna go up forever
(04:50):
and ever straight up. Same exactthing. So even though the game
has changed and it's muchfaster, human nature's the same.
And the same way that they gotthose Nifty Fifty stocks, and
timing is important, they gotYou'll see what's happened in
recent days.
Apple's had a little accident aswell as, you know, Meta and a
(05:11):
few others. It never changes. SoI'm not telling everybody out
there to be a one or two daytrader, but I think you have to
have a sense of timing. Youcan't just buy and hold. If you
just buy and hold, you're gonnado the old roller coaster bid up
and down.
So I think it's important thatyou catch the important
(05:33):
intermediate moves that happenevery couple of months.
Keith (05:37):
So so during the 1960s and seventies, the the markets
went sideways for quite a while,didn't
Stan (05:43):
Right. Absolutely. From 1966 to 1982, a grand many
years, you were caught betweenroughly 1,000 on the upside and
600 plus on the downside. Butwithin there, had a lot of you
know, that really throws youoff. You had a lot of bull and
(06:03):
bear markets.
There was a bear market in 1966,a really bad one in 1969,
'seventy, a generational bearmarket in 1973, 'seventy four,
which was the worst since 1929.You had what you alluded to
before, a quickie bear market in1987, which really scalped the
heck out of people. We've had alot of bull and bear markets.
(06:25):
And, again, only the liars arealways 100% right, but I'm very
proud because it's beendocumented that we've caught
over the last fifty plus yearsevery bull and bear market
within 5% of inception, I thinkwe can teach all your viewers
here how to do that exact samething. It's not magic.
It's, again, using good commonsense and a good game plan.
Keith (06:50):
So you got in in 'sixty five, and a bear market came out
in 'sixty six. How did you gainthe wisdom to get it right then?
Who was helping you? How did yousee things differently than
everybody else?
Stan (07:05):
That's a good question. First of all, I gotta tell you,
I was a rookie in '66, andalthough I did see the bear
market, trust me, I wasn't assharp as I was ten and fifteen
years later. But the reality is,if you took a look, there was a
divergence in 1966 between theadvance decline line, it almost
always happens, and the DowJones Industrials. Then it broke
(07:28):
down from a top. And these arethe kind of things that I talk
about in my book.
In every top, it's been the samething. Let's go back just to
recent vintage here. Everybody,you know, thinks like, Oh, this
latest bear market just camefrom nowhere. But that wasn't
true. If you take a look, the Iknow you guys are sharp and
(07:49):
sore.
Majority of stocks were toppingout in November and December
before we even got into the newyear here, and that's why I
have, in each issue, what I callmy S and P and secondary
surveys, which is just a simpleway of categorizing what
percentage of the stocks arehealthy in stages one and two,
(08:11):
and which ones are unhealthy, Ihave to go to the hospital in
stages three and four. And ifyou take a look at a really good
bull market, at least 70% ormore of the stocks should be in
the healthy category. And if youtake a look, my surveys were
having trouble getting above 50%as we moved into the new year
here. And then when you madethat phony all time high in the
(08:36):
S and P, which I think waseither February 18 or
nineteenth, that could be off bya day, it made a new all time
high. Meanwhile, not only didmost of the other averages not
go on to new highs, which was aclear cut warning, but in
addition, these surveys were, ifI remember, my S and P survey
was 50%.
(08:57):
My secondary survey, which issmaller stocks, was under 45%.
It doesn't get easier than that.And sometimes people get annoyed
when I use this analogy, but Idon't know if you guys play
blackjack, if anybody who playsblackjack, you know that if you
have 11 and the dealer has asix, it's the best hand you can
(09:18):
have. And obviously, you maylose that one hand, but it's
been statistically shown, if youkeep doubling down on that hand,
you're gonna end up a winnerover a long period of time.
Well, it's the same thing in themarket.
When you have the advanceddecline line topped out on
November 29 and you had thisphony high in mid February, when
(09:41):
you had my S and Ps andsecondary surveys acting so
poorly. This has been the top ofevery market over the last fifty
plus years. So when you learnthe game, I'm not gonna tell you
it's perfect, but it's reallykinda obvious. Let
Keith (09:57):
me go back to history real quick before we get to
today. And so when I got in themarkets in the 80s, there really
wasn't much influence from themutual fund industry. But with
the introduction of 401ks andthe mass amount of monies that
have gone in there, the mutualfund industry has told people
that you can't time the market.Found this, let me share a
(10:20):
screen with you real quick. Ifound this on the Internet
today, and I thought it wasreally interesting.
I don't know if you've seen thisbefore, Stan, where they said
it's time in the market, nottiming the market.
Stan (10:35):
Yeah. You know, first of all, it's like though you know,
there's an old cliche, thosethat can do, those that can
teach. You know, there are somany cliches that are true like
that. It's the same thing thatso many people really can time
the market. So so many brokers,and I'm putting all brokers down
(10:57):
because some of them are short,but so many brokers and so many
mutual fund people tell you, oh,there's no way you can time the
market, so just buy and hold andyou'll be fine over time.
That's just a lazy man's way ofthinking. If you take a look and
just see over the last couple ofyears, you don't even have to go
back to the sixties andseventies, if you just look at
the last couple of years, if youdid no more than avoided the
(11:21):
bear market of February to02/2003, avoided, which we did,
the bear market of 02/2007 into02/2008, and then if you're, in
the recent months, avoided thebig drubbing we recently had, if
you did nothing more, forgetabout even what you made on the
buy side, because most people,you know, that's why they say,
(11:44):
Don't confuse brains in a bullmarket. In a bull market, we all
do well. In a bear market,people end up giving back what
they want in the bull market. Soif you just don't lose in a bear
market and forget that we caneven do well in a bull market,
you can do so much better thanthe nonsense about just buy and
hold and don't try to time themarket.
Keith (12:05):
I was hoping my son Caleb would join us tonight, and the
hypothetical I wanted to throwout to him and get your take on
it was, he's 22. Suppose hebuilds his $4.00 1 ks to a
quarter of a million by the timehe's 32. If we're talking about
financial planning, everybodytalks about all these important
things. Might he do better inhis four zero one k by paying
(12:27):
attention to this, as well asall the other financial planning
junk?
Stan (12:31):
I I think there's no doubt. And, you know, this is
what I find so frustrating, butactually, in a way, it's good.
Because if everybody really gotthe game, let's be honest, who
do we sell our bad stocks to? Sothe reality is that when I was
young and foolish, I used to goon a seminar circuit and
(12:52):
proselytize, you know, whyeverybody should use technical
analysis. I think it's good thatprobably no more, it's more than
when I started out.
When I started out as a brokerin another lifetime, I had to
say BS, like, Oh, I usetechnicals and fundamentals, and
I synthesize them togetherbecause people didn't believe
it. They thought that technicalswere Nancy Reagan astrology and
(13:14):
all that stuff. Today, it'sbecome really much more
accepted. But still, I find itinteresting that if a person is
following fundamentals and theylose, they don't say, Oh,
there's nothing to fundamentalanalysis. They'll just buy at
50.
When it drops to 40, they'llaverage down. But if you buy a
stock and it's good technicalpattern and it doesn't work,
(13:38):
they'll say, That's it. I knewthere's nothing to technical
analysis. So it's really finethat we knock so many people out
of the wayside, and we only havebright guys like you following
it that really, you know, staywith the technicals and know
that I honestly believe that wecan be right 75 to 80% of the
time. But like I said, only thelie is always right.
(13:58):
I whereas I read I'll neverforget when I started out this
marketer another lifetime ago,one of the first books I read
was Nicholas Darvish's How IMade 2,000,000 in a Minute and a
Half, whatever it was. Anyway,the reality is when I wrote my
book, which I never saw in otherbooks, I put in a chapter about
things that I lost in, how Iremember writing to the effect,
(14:21):
even though it was many daysago, how handling a losing
position is what will reallymake you a winner in the stock
market. Because, like I said,anybody can, you know, jump and
show you they're winning lotterytickets. But when you can handle
a losing position, and we're allgonna have losing positions, and
that's why you have to learn touse stop losses, etcetera, The
(14:45):
market can be your friend, andthat's what we gotta learn. The
trend is your friend.
Keith (14:51):
I've had this idea for probably thirty years, Stan,
that education teaches us to get90% or something like that, And
we're bad if we get a 60%. Solearning to trade and be wrong a
lot is really a psychologicaland emotional thing. I think
that's what you were alluding tothere.
Stan (15:12):
100%. And that's why so many, as I said before, these
phrases and cliches are reallytrue. There's one that I always
come back to that perfection isthe antithesis of the good. The
reality is that, Hey, we justhave to be good. You don't have
to be perfect.
In fact, I'm convinced I'veshown this over and over again
(15:35):
that if you Forget that we canbe right more than 50% of the
time, but if you're only right50% of the time and you let your
good profits run, and at thesame time, the 50% you're wrong,
you take quick losses, you'llstill, at the end of the year,
just need a creative accountant.But I think that we can be right
easily 75%, eighty % of thetime. So, you know, let the
(16:00):
fundamentalists think theyshould just buy and hold
forever, you know, and we'llsell our losing stocks.
Keith (16:07):
Can I show you a historical graph here and get
your take on it? You may not beable to see the picture as
clearly, but I can probablyexplain what it's representing
here. This is a historical graphof the S and P 500 from 1880
until 2019. And each of theselines here are the ten year
(16:32):
rolling performance of theindex. And so why I thought this
was important, if somebody was,say, 70 and they were buy and
hold and they jumped in thisthing about 1966, they would
probably run out of money ifthey followed the buy and hold.
So I was just wondering if youcould kinda point out
Stan (16:53):
That's fascinating chart that you see there. And I agree
with you. First, your point isvalid. And then let's be honest,
even
Keith (17:05):
when
Stan (17:05):
you go through a few bad months, you know, people start
reaching for the Maalox. Butwhen you take a look, when you
go through, like, you lookthrough, like, thousand and
seven, '2 thousand and '8 untilwe turned in February, that's a
lot of days when you are talkingabout two plus years, and that's
why most people that do try buyand hold get disgusted, and they
(17:29):
end up selling at the bottombecause they can't take it
anymore. I think it's absolutelycritical, and you certainly have
learned it. It's so critical.Like I say, I don't wanna make
you into a buy on Monday, sellon Wednesday trader, but that
you do have a sense of timingand know when, again, to use the
analogy of cards, when themarket and the deck is rich,
(17:53):
then we really go for it.
And when the deck is not rich,which right now the deck is not
rich, we have little needles inthe haystack that I can show
people are still okay. But ingeneral, the market was very
rich throughout after we turnedbullish there, after that bottom
in late twenty twenty two, goinginto November October, November
(18:14):
of '20 '20 '4, then we really gofor it. Now, hey, you gotta be
more careful.
Keith (18:21):
So with that chart I just showed, it kinda has mountains
and valleys. And I think whatyou're describing to our
listeners is that actually theirreturns could more stabilize
over time because they're notgonna get all those rides down.
Stan (18:35):
Absolutely. And on top of that, they will also sleep
better at night.
Keith (18:42):
That that 02/2008 market is when I quit buy and hold,
Stan. I went through a bout ofdepression and everybody's
telling us everything, right?They're telling us, know, thing,
yeah, it's gonna turn and thebanks when the banks go to
pennies on the dollars?
Stan (18:58):
Yeah. That is a good point. That's another case where
I really believe that when we gothrough bad, you can learn, and
that can make you a winner. Thelosers go through life repeating
this it's like the whole thingrepeating the same mistake over
and over again and blaming theirbroker or blaming their their
(19:21):
wife or somebody else, ratherthan just learning from
mistakes. None of us were puthere with a roadmap how we
should do it and to be perfect,but if along the way, that's
what the journey is all about,if you can learn and say, hey,
and that's why I told you, eventhough I bought that £66 market,
I wasn't nearly the same marketplayer that I am today.
(19:44):
That's what the journey is allabout. We all can learn along
the way. And the most importantthing is just don't listen to
all the nonsense that you seeput out on TV, you know, with
all the financial programs, withall due respect.
Keith (20:01):
Doug and I have been just mesmerized by the financial
services industry and howgenerous people are. And the
question that comes to my mindis, at this season in life,
you're really generous with yourtime. What motivates you to hang
out with us and help peoplethink differently about this?
Stan (20:21):
Well, first of all, you know, many a day ago when I got
out of college, I really thoughtabout being a teacher. Okay?
Happily, I made a few bucks moredoing this than teaching, but I
really do. I'm not gonna lie andsay, Oh, I'm the YMCA, I'm
turning the money away, which itbuys the guys cars and the
trips. But the reality is, atthis point in my life, at this
(20:45):
part of my legacy, I love howmany letters, and even in some
cases, conversations I've hadwhen I used to be on the seminar
circuit, where people have toldme, Stan, you changed my life.
You know? That really, for me,just makes me feel good. So like
I said, I'm not here for free,and later on we can tell the
(21:05):
people how they can join. Butthe reality is that I definitely
get psychic value out of it. Andthat's why, even at my tender
age of 83, in my head, I thinkthe calendar's wrong, and I'm
really 63.
Keith (21:21):
So what you do keeps you young, man, is what you're
saying.
Stan (21:24):
Absolutely. I always kid around my wife. I say, When the
highlight of your day is justsitting on the couch, and then
here in Florida, we have whatthey call early bird specials,
where you can a cheap lunch oran early dinner at 04:30 in the
afternoon. I say, when thehighlight of your day is an
early bird special, you'refinished.
Keith (21:45):
So when people are talking to us about doing
business with us, we tell themthere's five ideas that we
really think highly of. We thinkyou need to think differently.
You need to buy wisdom. You needto like what you do. Live
adventurously and generositywins.
And I see all those attributesin you, like the wisdom you
(22:06):
have, you sell it to somebodywho wants to buy it, but really,
don't even know how much youcould price it for that it
wouldn't be a deal to somebodythat's really wanting to learn.
Stan (22:18):
It's true. I think it's a win win situation because I know
that I'm helping a lot ofpeople. And like I said, it's a
win on my end too, because I'mnot for free.
Keith (22:31):
And yet at the ripe age, at 83, you not only like what
you do, it sounds like you lovewhat you do.
Stan (22:38):
Absolutely. This is another cliche, but I said, this
is why they've become verities.I had read recently where
somebody said something to theeffect, I may get it wrong
slightly, that do something thatyou really love and you're
passionate about, and you'llnever work a day in your life.
Keith (22:55):
So from '66 until well, basically, 2026, you've been
doing that for quite a whilethen, right?
Stan (23:02):
That's a lot of days at a lot of bullet bear markets.
Doug (23:08):
Hey, I think this has been great.
Keith (23:11):
You've given like in a concise amount of time, Stan,
you've been generous with yourtime. I think what you've given
our friends that'll watch thisis a, is just enough of a hook
to get them either to take alook at your book. And again, it
looks, it's the same sand, justdifferent color hair here. And
we encourage you to go onlineand get a copy of that. Reach
(23:32):
out to us.
We'll have a bumper at the endof this, how you can reach out
and subscribe to Stan's service.We just are just really humbled
by your generosity.
Stan (23:42):
And I'll even tell anybody that's truly, truly interested
if they'd like to get a free onetime copy so they can see if it
works for them, either contactyou guys or you'll show them at
the end, they can call or emailus, and we'll send it off. Then,
hey, if they come in, great. Ifnot, they're still terrific
(24:03):
people, but they should allremember what I used to have,
when I had the tape, theprofessional tapering, which I
retired many years ago, at thetop of each issue, said, the
tape tells all, And I reallyhonestly believe that.
Keith (24:16):
I love it. Thanks again for your generosity and your
time tonight, Stan. I hope youhave a great evening.
Stan (24:21):
And God bless you guys.
Keith (24:23):
And you too. Thank you. Doug, how fun was that?
Doug (24:26):
That was a good time.
Keith (24:27):
I don't even I'm kind of speechless. I just think the
generosity of people justcontinually blows me away.
Doug (24:35):
Stan is going after it. I mean, he is a creative guy. He's
on a mission, has a greatbusiness running, and we'd love
to tell you a little more aboutit.
Keith (24:44):
But he's not interested in getting a early dinner
special.
Doug (24:47):
He's looking
Keith (24:48):
to helping more people all the time. Well, can access
him via our trading for you,which we are clients of his. But
you can also access him if youwant to go even deeper and
pursue his efforts on your ownenergy level. This is it. His
(25:08):
business Global Trend Alert,market great, Stan Weinstein
Consulting.
The individual access is 2,500 aquarter. If you've got an
institution or friends that arein the business, it's going to
cost you about six times that at15,000 a quarter. And he's gonna
talk about stage two winners andstage four losers clearly and
(25:30):
explain that to you and help youdo it. If you have a curiosity
or if you wanna take up Stanwith his offer, just give us a
system to call on that number.And I think you'll enjoy at
least giving it a try whetheryou choose to go long term or
not.
That is up to you. Alright.Thanks for hanging out with us
again tonight.
Back in 1973, it was the Nifty Fifty and Avon, Polaroid
(00:04):
Xerox, and blah, blah, blah. Andyou know, it's the same
nonsense. We had The MagnificentSeven. I said, oh, I've seen
this movie before. It's the samething.
They just change differentactors and costumes. It never
changes because human naturenever changes. It's the same
psychology.
Keith (00:22):
Welcome to the Up Your Average podcast, where Keith and
Doug give no nonsense advice tolevel up your life. Buckle up
and listen closely to up youraverage. Alright, Doug. Here we
(00:43):
are.
Doug (00:44):
Hey. We've got an exciting, exciting day for us
today.
Keith (00:48):
If I could, if I can get out of the way and show my
bookcase over here, I don't havetons of different books. There's
a lot of repeat ones I can givethem away. But man, what about
secrets and profiting and bulland bear markets? What do think
about this book?
Doug (01:03):
I've had that book for a long time. I don't remember when
I bought it. It was early on inmy career. And we had the joy of
actually meeting Stan a couplemonths ago, thanks to Mark
Minervini. It's
Keith (01:20):
a privilege to do something you love doing. And I
don't know if other industriesare as generous with their
wisdom as our industry is.People will get like, they'll
give one another their tradesecrets. They'll give them
everything with a generositythat I never expected when I got
into the
Doug (01:37):
We've said this before. I mean, you could put a person's
strategy on the front page ofthe Wall Street Journal or on a
website somewhere, and it couldbe the greatest strategy in the
world, but all strategies havetimes where they just don't do
well. And so with confidence, wecould tell everybody the secret
sauce in how we make ourdecisions.
Keith (01:55):
And people just won't do a lot of it, so they just won't
do the repetition of it.
Stan (01:59):
No, it
Doug (01:59):
takes discipline. It takes blood, sweat, and tears.
Keith (02:03):
And so with that, we thought, you know, as we're
doing Up Your Average and we'representing you ideas that will
step up your lifestyle for youin a variety of different ways,
we thought we'd just introduceone of our friends too.
Doug (02:15):
He's one of the best traders of all time. And to be
able to talk with him and learnfrom him has just been one of
the greatest blessings of mylast year.
Keith (02:25):
It's been a lot of fun. And so with no further ado, we
want to introduce to you ourfriend Stan Weinstein. Stan, I
thought we would hang outtonight to just kick off and
talk about a little bit ofmarket history. And I started my
first day of straight commissionas a stockbroker was October
1987.
Stan (02:47):
Perfect timing. Don't they say timing is everything?
Keith (02:51):
And that was a traumatizing moment. The people
that had some gray hair and somewisdom, face was traumatized
when they came out of theiroffice. They didn't know what to
do. I just thought, well, Imight as well go forward and see
what happens. But when I look atthe history of the market and
I'm thinking about the 1960s andthe 1970s, when you probably
(03:13):
jumped in, I thought maybe ifyou would talk to us about what
the market was like then, andthen we can move forward to what
we're at today.
How's that?
Stan (03:21):
I think that's a great kickoff point. So here we go.
First of all, people will say tome, Stan, you wrote that book
back in 1987, early 'eighty '8.Is it still valid because the
market is now, that's it, but myhair was black. Anyway, the
market was, you know, adifferent animal to a degree
(03:44):
because we had specialists andthings didn't move quite as
rapidly.
But the truth is supply anddemand, there's always gonna be
supply and demand that neverchanges, and human nature, you
know, fear and greed neverchanges also, so they've spent
the game up. But it's reallystill the same thing. And now
we'll go back. Like, if you takea look at 1973, which I actually
(04:08):
got in the market in 1965, goingback a lot of days. But anyway,
in 1973, we had the nifty 50 ofthose days, which was Avon,
Polaroid, Xerox.
And if you wanna be acontrarian, the perfect
contrarian view, they calledthose stocks one decision
stocks. You only had to buythem, you never had to sell
(04:29):
them. Well, we know whathappened to those stocks
thereafter with one decision.But it reminded me so much in
those days, those one decisionstocks eventually crashed. Some
of them, like Polaroid, aregone.
Recently, we had the MagnificentSeven, and these stocks were
great. They're good companies,but they're gonna go up forever
(04:50):
and ever straight up. Same exactthing. So even though the game
has changed and it's muchfaster, human nature's the same.
And the same way that they gotthose Nifty Fifty stocks, and
timing is important, they gotYou'll see what's happened in
recent days.
Apple's had a little accident aswell as, you know, Meta and a
(05:11):
few others. It never changes. SoI'm not telling everybody out
there to be a one or two daytrader, but I think you have to
have a sense of timing. Youcan't just buy and hold. If you
just buy and hold, you're gonnado the old roller coaster bid up
and down.
So I think it's important thatyou catch the important
(05:33):
intermediate moves that happenevery couple of months.
Keith (05:37):
So so during the 1960s and seventies, the the markets
went sideways for quite a while,didn't
Stan (05:43):
Right. Absolutely. From 1966 to 1982, a grand many
years, you were caught betweenroughly 1,000 on the upside and
600 plus on the downside. Butwithin there, had a lot of you
know, that really throws youoff. You had a lot of bull and
(06:03):
bear markets.
There was a bear market in 1966,a really bad one in 1969,
'seventy, a generational bearmarket in 1973, 'seventy four,
which was the worst since 1929.You had what you alluded to
before, a quickie bear market in1987, which really scalped the
heck out of people. We've had alot of bull and bear markets.
(06:25):
And, again, only the liars arealways 100% right, but I'm very
proud because it's beendocumented that we've caught
over the last fifty plus yearsevery bull and bear market
within 5% of inception, I thinkwe can teach all your viewers
here how to do that exact samething. It's not magic.
It's, again, using good commonsense and a good game plan.
Keith (06:50):
So you got in in 'sixty five, and a bear market came out
in 'sixty six. How did you gainthe wisdom to get it right then?
Who was helping you? How did yousee things differently than
everybody else?
Stan (07:05):
That's a good question. First of all, I gotta tell you,
I was a rookie in '66, andalthough I did see the bear
market, trust me, I wasn't assharp as I was ten and fifteen
years later. But the reality is,if you took a look, there was a
divergence in 1966 between theadvance decline line, it almost
always happens, and the DowJones Industrials. Then it broke
(07:28):
down from a top. And these arethe kind of things that I talk
about in my book.
In every top, it's been the samething. Let's go back just to
recent vintage here. Everybody,you know, thinks like, Oh, this
latest bear market just camefrom nowhere. But that wasn't
true. If you take a look, the Iknow you guys are sharp and
(07:49):
sore.
Majority of stocks were toppingout in November and December
before we even got into the newyear here, and that's why I
have, in each issue, what I callmy S and P and secondary
surveys, which is just a simpleway of categorizing what
percentage of the stocks arehealthy in stages one and two,
(08:11):
and which ones are unhealthy, Ihave to go to the hospital in
stages three and four. And ifyou take a look at a really good
bull market, at least 70% ormore of the stocks should be in
the healthy category. And if youtake a look, my surveys were
having trouble getting above 50%as we moved into the new year
here. And then when you madethat phony all time high in the
(08:36):
S and P, which I think waseither February 18 or
nineteenth, that could be off bya day, it made a new all time
high. Meanwhile, not only didmost of the other averages not
go on to new highs, which was aclear cut warning, but in
addition, these surveys were, ifI remember, my S and P survey
was 50%.
(08:57):
My secondary survey, which issmaller stocks, was under 45%.
It doesn't get easier than that.And sometimes people get annoyed
when I use this analogy, but Idon't know if you guys play
blackjack, if anybody who playsblackjack, you know that if you
have 11 and the dealer has asix, it's the best hand you can
(09:18):
have. And obviously, you maylose that one hand, but it's
been statistically shown, if youkeep doubling down on that hand,
you're gonna end up a winnerover a long period of time.
Well, it's the same thing in themarket.
When you have the advanceddecline line topped out on
November 29 and you had thisphony high in mid February, when
(09:41):
you had my S and Ps andsecondary surveys acting so
poorly. This has been the top ofevery market over the last fifty
plus years. So when you learnthe game, I'm not gonna tell you
it's perfect, but it's reallykinda obvious. Let
Keith (09:57):
me go back to history real quick before we get to
today. And so when I got in themarkets in the 80s, there really
wasn't much influence from themutual fund industry. But with
the introduction of 401ks andthe mass amount of monies that
have gone in there, the mutualfund industry has told people
that you can't time the market.Found this, let me share a
(10:20):
screen with you real quick. Ifound this on the Internet
today, and I thought it wasreally interesting.
I don't know if you've seen thisbefore, Stan, where they said
it's time in the market, nottiming the market.
Stan (10:35):
Yeah. You know, first of all, it's like though you know,
there's an old cliche, thosethat can do, those that can
teach. You know, there are somany cliches that are true like
that. It's the same thing thatso many people really can time
the market. So so many brokers,and I'm putting all brokers down
(10:57):
because some of them are short,but so many brokers and so many
mutual fund people tell you, oh,there's no way you can time the
market, so just buy and hold andyou'll be fine over time.
That's just a lazy man's way ofthinking. If you take a look and
just see over the last couple ofyears, you don't even have to go
back to the sixties andseventies, if you just look at
the last couple of years, if youdid no more than avoided the
(11:21):
bear market of February to02/2003, avoided, which we did,
the bear market of 02/2007 into02/2008, and then if you're, in
the recent months, avoided thebig drubbing we recently had, if
you did nothing more, forgetabout even what you made on the
buy side, because most people,you know, that's why they say,
(11:44):
Don't confuse brains in a bullmarket. In a bull market, we all
do well. In a bear market,people end up giving back what
they want in the bull market. Soif you just don't lose in a bear
market and forget that we caneven do well in a bull market,
you can do so much better thanthe nonsense about just buy and
hold and don't try to time themarket.
Keith (12:05):
I was hoping my son Caleb would join us tonight, and the
hypothetical I wanted to throwout to him and get your take on
it was, he's 22. Suppose hebuilds his $4.00 1 ks to a
quarter of a million by the timehe's 32. If we're talking about
financial planning, everybodytalks about all these important
things. Might he do better inhis four zero one k by paying
(12:27):
attention to this, as well asall the other financial planning
junk?
Stan (12:31):
I I think there's no doubt. And, you know, this is
what I find so frustrating, butactually, in a way, it's good.
Because if everybody really gotthe game, let's be honest, who
do we sell our bad stocks to? Sothe reality is that when I was
young and foolish, I used to goon a seminar circuit and
(12:52):
proselytize, you know, whyeverybody should use technical
analysis. I think it's good thatprobably no more, it's more than
when I started out.
When I started out as a brokerin another lifetime, I had to
say BS, like, Oh, I usetechnicals and fundamentals, and
I synthesize them togetherbecause people didn't believe
it. They thought that technicalswere Nancy Reagan astrology and
(13:14):
all that stuff. Today, it'sbecome really much more
accepted. But still, I find itinteresting that if a person is
following fundamentals and theylose, they don't say, Oh,
there's nothing to fundamentalanalysis. They'll just buy at
50.
When it drops to 40, they'llaverage down. But if you buy a
stock and it's good technicalpattern and it doesn't work,
(13:38):
they'll say, That's it. I knewthere's nothing to technical
analysis. So it's really finethat we knock so many people out
of the wayside, and we only havebright guys like you following
it that really, you know, staywith the technicals and know
that I honestly believe that wecan be right 75 to 80% of the
time. But like I said, only thelie is always right.
(13:58):
I whereas I read I'll neverforget when I started out this
marketer another lifetime ago,one of the first books I read
was Nicholas Darvish's How IMade 2,000,000 in a Minute and a
Half, whatever it was. Anyway,the reality is when I wrote my
book, which I never saw in otherbooks, I put in a chapter about
things that I lost in, how Iremember writing to the effect,
(14:21):
even though it was many daysago, how handling a losing
position is what will reallymake you a winner in the stock
market. Because, like I said,anybody can, you know, jump and
show you they're winning lotterytickets. But when you can handle
a losing position, and we're allgonna have losing positions, and
that's why you have to learn touse stop losses, etcetera, The
(14:45):
market can be your friend, andthat's what we gotta learn. The
trend is your friend.
Keith (14:51):
I've had this idea for probably thirty years, Stan,
that education teaches us to get90% or something like that, And
we're bad if we get a 60%. Solearning to trade and be wrong a
lot is really a psychologicaland emotional thing. I think
that's what you were alluding tothere.
Stan (15:12):
100%. And that's why so many, as I said before, these
phrases and cliches are reallytrue. There's one that I always
come back to that perfection isthe antithesis of the good. The
reality is that, Hey, we justhave to be good. You don't have
to be perfect.
In fact, I'm convinced I'veshown this over and over again
(15:35):
that if you Forget that we canbe right more than 50% of the
time, but if you're only right50% of the time and you let your
good profits run, and at thesame time, the 50% you're wrong,
you take quick losses, you'llstill, at the end of the year,
just need a creative accountant.But I think that we can be right
easily 75%, eighty % of thetime. So, you know, let the
(16:00):
fundamentalists think theyshould just buy and hold
forever, you know, and we'llsell our losing stocks.
Keith (16:07):
Can I show you a historical graph here and get
your take on it? You may not beable to see the picture as
clearly, but I can probablyexplain what it's representing
here. This is a historical graphof the S and P 500 from 1880
until 2019. And each of theselines here are the ten year
(16:32):
rolling performance of theindex. And so why I thought this
was important, if somebody was,say, 70 and they were buy and
hold and they jumped in thisthing about 1966, they would
probably run out of money ifthey followed the buy and hold.
So I was just wondering if youcould kinda point out
Stan (16:53):
That's fascinating chart that you see there. And I agree
with you. First, your point isvalid. And then let's be honest,
even
Keith (17:05):
when
Stan (17:05):
you go through a few bad months, you know, people start
reaching for the Maalox. Butwhen you take a look, when you
go through, like, you lookthrough, like, thousand and
seven, '2 thousand and '8 untilwe turned in February, that's a
lot of days when you are talkingabout two plus years, and that's
why most people that do try buyand hold get disgusted, and they
(17:29):
end up selling at the bottombecause they can't take it
anymore. I think it's absolutelycritical, and you certainly have
learned it. It's so critical.Like I say, I don't wanna make
you into a buy on Monday, sellon Wednesday trader, but that
you do have a sense of timingand know when, again, to use the
analogy of cards, when themarket and the deck is rich,
(17:53):
then we really go for it.
And when the deck is not rich,which right now the deck is not
rich, we have little needles inthe haystack that I can show
people are still okay. But ingeneral, the market was very
rich throughout after we turnedbullish there, after that bottom
in late twenty twenty two, goinginto November October, November
(18:14):
of '20 '20 '4, then we really gofor it. Now, hey, you gotta be
more careful.
Keith (18:21):
So with that chart I just showed, it kinda has mountains
and valleys. And I think whatyou're describing to our
listeners is that actually theirreturns could more stabilize
over time because they're notgonna get all those rides down.
Stan (18:35):
Absolutely. And on top of that, they will also sleep
better at night.
Keith (18:42):
That that 02/2008 market is when I quit buy and hold,
Stan. I went through a bout ofdepression and everybody's
telling us everything, right?They're telling us, know, thing,
yeah, it's gonna turn and thebanks when the banks go to
pennies on the dollars?
Stan (18:58):
Yeah. That is a good point. That's another case where
I really believe that when we gothrough bad, you can learn, and
that can make you a winner. Thelosers go through life repeating
this it's like the whole thingrepeating the same mistake over
and over again and blaming theirbroker or blaming their their
(19:21):
wife or somebody else, ratherthan just learning from
mistakes. None of us were puthere with a roadmap how we
should do it and to be perfect,but if along the way, that's
what the journey is all about,if you can learn and say, hey,
and that's why I told you, eventhough I bought that £66 market,
I wasn't nearly the same marketplayer that I am today.
(19:44):
That's what the journey is allabout. We all can learn along
the way. And the most importantthing is just don't listen to
all the nonsense that you seeput out on TV, you know, with
all the financial programs, withall due respect.
Keith (20:01):
Doug and I have been just mesmerized by the financial
services industry and howgenerous people are. And the
question that comes to my mindis, at this season in life,
you're really generous with yourtime. What motivates you to hang
out with us and help peoplethink differently about this?
Stan (20:21):
Well, first of all, you know, many a day ago when I got
out of college, I really thoughtabout being a teacher. Okay?
Happily, I made a few bucks moredoing this than teaching, but I
really do. I'm not gonna lie andsay, Oh, I'm the YMCA, I'm
turning the money away, which itbuys the guys cars and the
trips. But the reality is, atthis point in my life, at this
(20:45):
part of my legacy, I love howmany letters, and even in some
cases, conversations I've hadwhen I used to be on the seminar
circuit, where people have toldme, Stan, you changed my life.
You know? That really, for me,just makes me feel good. So like
I said, I'm not here for free,and later on we can tell the
(21:05):
people how they can join. Butthe reality is that I definitely
get psychic value out of it. Andthat's why, even at my tender
age of 83, in my head, I thinkthe calendar's wrong, and I'm
really 63.
Keith (21:21):
So what you do keeps you young, man, is what you're
saying.
Stan (21:24):
Absolutely. I always kid around my wife. I say, When the
highlight of your day is justsitting on the couch, and then
here in Florida, we have whatthey call early bird specials,
where you can a cheap lunch oran early dinner at 04:30 in the
afternoon. I say, when thehighlight of your day is an
early bird special, you'refinished.
Keith (21:45):
So when people are talking to us about doing
business with us, we tell themthere's five ideas that we
really think highly of. We thinkyou need to think differently.
You need to buy wisdom. You needto like what you do. Live
adventurously and generositywins.
And I see all those attributesin you, like the wisdom you
(22:06):
have, you sell it to somebodywho wants to buy it, but really,
don't even know how much youcould price it for that it
wouldn't be a deal to somebodythat's really wanting to learn.
Stan (22:18):
It's true. I think it's a win win situation because I know
that I'm helping a lot ofpeople. And like I said, it's a
win on my end too, because I'mnot for free.
Keith (22:31):
And yet at the ripe age, at 83, you not only like what
you do, it sounds like you lovewhat you do.
Stan (22:38):
Absolutely. This is another cliche, but I said, this
is why they've become verities.I had read recently where
somebody said something to theeffect, I may get it wrong
slightly, that do something thatyou really love and you're
passionate about, and you'llnever work a day in your life.
Keith (22:55):
So from '66 until well, basically, 2026, you've been
doing that for quite a whilethen, right?
Stan (23:02):
That's a lot of days at a lot of bullet bear markets.
Doug (23:08):
Hey, I think this has been great.
Keith (23:11):
You've given like in a concise amount of time, Stan,
you've been generous with yourtime. I think what you've given
our friends that'll watch thisis a, is just enough of a hook
to get them either to take alook at your book. And again, it
looks, it's the same sand, justdifferent color hair here. And
we encourage you to go onlineand get a copy of that. Reach
(23:32):
out to us.
We'll have a bumper at the endof this, how you can reach out
and subscribe to Stan's service.We just are just really humbled
by your generosity.
Stan (23:42):
And I'll even tell anybody that's truly, truly interested
if they'd like to get a free onetime copy so they can see if it
works for them, either contactyou guys or you'll show them at
the end, they can call or emailus, and we'll send it off. Then,
hey, if they come in, great. Ifnot, they're still terrific
(24:03):
people, but they should allremember what I used to have,
when I had the tape, theprofessional tapering, which I
retired many years ago, at thetop of each issue, said, the
tape tells all, And I reallyhonestly believe that.
Keith (24:16):
I love it. Thanks again for your generosity and your
time tonight, Stan. I hope youhave a great evening.
Stan (24:21):
And God bless you guys.
Keith (24:23):
And you too. Thank you. Doug, how fun was that?
Doug (24:26):
That was a good time.
Keith (24:27):
I don't even I'm kind of speechless. I just think the
generosity of people justcontinually blows me away.
Doug (24:35):
Stan is going after it. I mean, he is a creative guy. He's
on a mission, has a greatbusiness running, and we'd love
to tell you a little more aboutit.
Keith (24:44):
But he's not interested in getting a early dinner
special.
Doug (24:47):
He's looking
Keith (24:48):
to helping more people all the time. Well, can access
him via our trading for you,which we are clients of his. But
you can also access him if youwant to go even deeper and
pursue his efforts on your ownenergy level. This is it. His
(25:08):
business Global Trend Alert,market great, Stan Weinstein
Consulting.
The individual access is 2,500 aquarter. If you've got an
institution or friends that arein the business, it's going to
cost you about six times that at15,000 a quarter. And he's gonna
talk about stage two winners andstage four losers clearly and
(25:30):
explain that to you and help youdo it. If you have a curiosity
or if you wanna take up Stanwith his offer, just give us a
system to call on that number.And I think you'll enjoy at
least giving it a try whetheryou choose to go long term or
not.
That is up to you. Alright.Thanks for hanging out with us
again tonight.
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