January 10, 2020 • 43 mins
There are two Aarons in Green Bay, but you'll only want to rely on one of them. Paul Charchian and Brian Johnson break down the divisional round of games from a fantasy perspective, and unearth a variety of sleepers, including two at the tight end position.
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Now along with the guys from fanball dot com. Here's
the host for Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul. That is me.
(00:24):
I'm Paul Charchy and my co host today Brian Johnson,
as we get ready for the divisional round. Hello Brian,
Hello Church. Uh, it's You're always excited about the divisional round, right,
but I'm really excited about this divisional round. Why is that?
I don't just seems like a bunch of great games.
And I'm not talking being a homer from Minnesota, because
I'm not a Vikings fan like you are. Of course
now you're you're you're Bengals fan. You wouldn't even know
what this is, like, what are the playoffs? Exactly? No
(00:47):
great games. I'm excited. Yeah, And uh, for everybody I
steered towards the Saints last week, sorry, I did not
think the Vikings were gonna win based on how they
had played down the stretch and a variety of other
factor so which we enumerated last week. We'll do better
this week. On helping you find fantasy winners as we
break down all four of the games, and um, I
(01:09):
think we may begin with Vikings at San Francisco, and
well that is the first game on the slate of
games Saturday midday, do we we don't want to discuss
any new head coaches or anything. There was one I
really wanted to break down what we thought happened at
the Jerry Jones Mike McCarthy slumber party, because I just
can't get over the facts that they had a slumber Yes, um,
(01:31):
you know, I think if you're Mike McCarthy, this couldn't
worked out any better because you gained the best roster
of all of the new coaches by a mile Dak
Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott a good defense, you know, Marie Cooper,
you know Michael Galli. But what you know, if you're McCarthy,
you go, you transition from Aaron Rodgers into this. You know,
it's even he can't bozoh this up, Kenny. Maybe we'll
(01:56):
see he got so complacent with the Packers, so complacent.
I'm just I'm not a fan. And it's not just
because here in Minnesota rooting against the Packers for most
of my life. It's because he did not maximize that
pack the packer opportunities he had at all. Impacer fans
will tell you the same thing. They don't love him either.
(02:16):
The best part of the press conference was one of
the reporters asked him if you thought that asked him
if if you thought des caught it, and he had
some a little bit very political Yeah, sure, um Ron
Rivera knew, Matt Rule, knew Joe Judge. Well, you know
(02:37):
we'll have to well if we've got a lot of
time to sort of shake those you know, shake out
how how we think those things will affect everything is,
especially with the Redskins as they're now Panthers North. All right,
let's go. Let's go to the games this weekend, breaking
him down fantasy style, beginning with the first one Minnesota
takes on San Francisco. Um, now the Niners. I'm hearing
a lot of bad stats out there about how the
Niners defense is crumbling. Well, yeah, because they were without
(03:00):
Richard Sherman, Kwan, Alexander jack Wis guitar to d Ford,
they're all back. D Ford's a game time decision, I think,
But it sounds like he's gonna go. So I think
this the Stevens goes right back to being as awesome
as it used to be. And man, can they pass
rush as a rush against the past you had. You know,
d Ford and Nick Bosa and Deforce Buckner and Eric
Armstead all excellent pass rushers. Niners said the fifth most sacks.
(03:24):
They ranked third in pass rush by Pro Football Focus.
That will stress this Vikings offensive line quite a bit.
I agree, yeah, And they're like, you're pretty much alluding
to their very well arrested, very well arrested They're gonna
be ready to go, undoubted. Undoubtedly, Kirk Cousins is thrown
exactly one touchdown in four straight games. I just don't
(03:45):
think the Vikings can win with one touchdown out of
Kirk Cousins because I don't see the running game coming
together in this one. And Cousins is going to throw
a lot more, I believe, than he usually does. In fact,
to drill down on that a little bit, San Francisco
has uh it gives up thirty two and a half
passes per game. Cousins only topped that a couple of
(04:07):
times all season, So I, you know, I think just
playing by trends, the Vikings are going to pass more often.
I think Kirk's gonna pass more often. I Gues's gonna
find himself at the end of the day. Not not
necessarily a win, but I think just through sheer volum
And you said, she ends up with a pretty good
game here. Now, what do you make of the ankle
of Adam Feeling? Yeah, let's talk about that. So they
won't tell us how it happened. We don't know. What
(04:29):
we do know is multiple multiple media reports saying it
was a deep ankle laceration. No thanks, Um, I don't
see how like people immediately jumped too. You got cleatd
I don't think you're wearing cleats that sharp and you
indoors on the turf, like if you've been in the
mud and whatever. Yeah, you were in the long cleats
that could do. But even then they're not sharp. I mean,
(04:50):
it's like track cleats, like baseball spikes. Yeah, it's not that.
So we we don't know how it has. Something weird happened,
something weird. Um, So Feeling is a huge X factor here.
Uh if he can go, he'll go in the slot
against cornerback Kwan Williams and uh more often than not.
He runs from all over the field, but I think
(05:11):
he'll hit the slot a lot. Williams has a lot
of touchdown since week too, but he gives up a
seventy two percent completion rate. So maybe theeling here who
was a major contributor to the Vikings when last week
ends up with Um a lot of catches and yards
but not necessarily a touchdown, Stefan Diggs goes up. Now
to understand the Niners secondary, you have to know Richard
Sherman plays one half of the field and basically erases it.
(05:34):
He is absolutely dominating. The average receiving game in his
coverage is one and a half receptions for fourteen yards.
Oh Man. Sherman is not allowed a touchdown since the opener. Brutal, brutal.
So if you're the Vikings, where do you line up
(05:56):
Stefon Diggs? They're not there? Not there? You know that's
where you hang La Kwan Treadwell out to dry or
Old A. B. C. Johnson out to dry, although Johnson
almost entirely plays a slot um or Hollins out to dry.
You're not gonna see. You're not going to see. I
believe a lot of Stefon Diggs over on the Sherman side,
(06:17):
because when why do that when you can go to
Kello Witherspoon instead, And that's the side of the field
that Diggs naturally lines up on. Anyway, pent of his
plays start on the left side of the field. Witherspoon
sees double the number of targets as Richard Sherman, which
is which makes sense. And he was brutal in the
final two games of the season, allowing four touchdowns in
(06:41):
the final two games. That's a Killo Witherspoon. He has
allowed more yards in the last four weeks than Richard
Sherman has allowed all year. So Diggs on Witherspoon is
an exploitable matchup. Better do it? Yeah? I like so.
I like Diggs more than I like feeling in the game.
Um cal, Rudolph has got an opportunity. Niners have a
(07:03):
lot of big games to Tyler Higbee, Jared Cook, Mark Andrews.
I'm a little bit word. He's gonna have to stay
in a block because of d Fort, Nick Bosa, Divorce Buckner.
It's you know, it's there. They can generate so much
pass rush. But you could try Rudolph in a pinch
if you wanted to, Well, I assume you're about to
get to Dalvin Cook right before you do that, if
you don't mind. I saw stat where I think it's
(07:26):
through Cook's career that he and Feeling have only played
ten games. That is probably accurate. That probably is accurate. Yeah,
so when they have played together, Cook and Feeling the
points and I think the implied total for the Vikings
is like nineteen and a half right now, and the
four allowed twenty plus points. I know we said their
(07:47):
defense is gonna be better than it's been playing, but
hell factor that if you're betting the implied over under
on the Vikings that they finally have Cook and Feeling together,
there's a chance Stealen does not play in this game.
I mean it sounds like it sounds like he's going
to go, and he's saying he's gonna go, But I
don't think it's a guarantee that he goes. Here, let's
(08:10):
talk about Dalvin Cook. San Francisco allowed all seven of
the rushing touchdowns they've given up in the second half
of the season, including four rushing touchdowns in the last
three games, again missing a number of players, um the
San Francisco seen very few workhorse backs. Get this, Brian.
Only two backs saw more than fifteen carries all year,
fifteen is not that much. That is weird. Um, they
(08:34):
haven't seen many particularly good runners, but they've done a
pretty good job on the ones they have seen. They
shut down Aaron Jones, they shut down mark Ingram. Um.
Mike Zimmer heard this stat forty and oh when the
Vikings rushed thirty times and that's astounding under Zimmer. Under
(08:54):
Zimmer forty and oh when his teams rushed thirty or
more times. Um, miners are giving up four point two
yards per carry on the season, four yards per carry
since December, then get a little something done here. No
back his top eighty nine rushing yards though against San
Francisco since week nine. Um, here's why, Here's why I
am worried about Dalvin Cook. Last week, the Vikings dominated
(09:16):
the first half of the game against the Saints, with
Dalvin Cook taking chunk yards. It was four yards, eight yards,
nine yards, six yards. And then in the second half
the Saints completely changed their scheme and they took away
Dalvin Cook and said, Kirk Cousins, you gotta go beat us.
They held kirk They held Dalvin Cook to one yard
per carry in the second half, and the Vikings only
(09:39):
scored one time in the second half, one scoring drive
in the second half. I mean, that's the blueprint, is
you take away Dalvin Cook from the Vikings and make
kirk O beat you. Now we did against the Saints.
It's not that you can't do it, but you're gonna
roll it. Do your dice and and make Kirko beat you.
And the Vikings took Dalvin Cook away from fantasy owners
and fantasy players too, because if I recall correctly, Alex,
(10:00):
the Madison had a couple of carries inside the ten
or five in the green zone. In red zone at
least one I remember seeing. So they still like using Madison. Uh,
you know, deep in enemy territory, we'll see the Saints
changed their scheme to put players in the slot. They
put a linebacker off of the off of an edge rusher,
or put a safety off an edge rusher, and they
(10:21):
would take away all the edge rushing for the Vikings
on one side or the other and sometimes both cases.
Viking she pass deep to try to break that up,
but I don't know if it's gonna work. By the way,
one other thing about Dalvin Cook A lot of yard
is coming through the air. The screen game may not
work here because San Francisco is allowed the third fewest
running back receptions, the second fewest running back yards, and
the and no touchdowns through the air. Theyn't give any
(10:41):
receiving touchdowns are running back all year? How about that?
So I don't love cooking this game. Uh. The Vegas
over under for yards is seventy seven rushing yards. I'm
under I haven't seen a total yard or receiving yard
for cook outline. Let's go to the San Francisco side
Saints had. The Saints last week had seven passing plays
of fourteen or more yards seven against the Vikings, and
(11:04):
since Week ten, San Francisco's had the third most explosive
passing plays. So I think there's a chance for some
downfield passing here on the Vikings. Um. The Vikings past
defense has had problems, but oddly enough, five straight opposing
quarterbacks and from zero or one touchdown, and that includes
some decent pastors like Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers and
Drew Brees. So it's a bit of a bend, but
don't break um. Defense for the Vikings. They give up
(11:28):
they give up plays, but they doesn't always turn into
a lot of fantasy points. Affect six the last seven
quarterbacks of thrown for two hundred forty yards or less
for Garoppolo. Garoppolo's biggest target George Kittle. I got some
stats for you. I'm ready, always ready. I dug into
Kittle's usage, Brian he is lethal in the middle of
(11:50):
the field. Pro football Focus showing he has almost eight
hundred yards in the middle of the field. Only eight
hundred yards by tight ends a good season for all
the catches. Kittle has eight hundred in the middle of
the field where Garoppolo is a passer rating of one
twenty on his throws to Kittle in the middle of
the field and a completion percentage of eight. But the
(12:16):
Vikings inside linebacker Eric Kendricks awesome. He is Pro Football
Focus his highest rated linebacker in coverage. He is the
linebacker in the NFL who has run the most coverage plays.
He ranks number one in pass breakups, he's number one
in past completion percentage allowed, and he has the third
(12:39):
lowest passer rating in his coverage. Eric Kendricks the Vikings
might be ideally suited to take away from George Kittle.
The thing he does best catching balls over the middle
of the field is going to meet the road. You're saying, huh,
all right, can't wait. I can't wait either. Um Kittle,
by the way, catches without a drop this year. Uh.
(12:59):
You know, there were at least six tight ends tight
ends drafted before George Getley was drafted in the fifth round.
Fifth round. But his college stats we're talking about today
in the radio, his college stats couldn't have been more mundane.
You had we think that we're speculating his run blocking
is so good. I think people looked at the body
type on him and said, here's this guy who's incredibly
(13:22):
big and strong, and the worst thing that happens is
he doesn't develop as a receiver, like we think we've
got a great run blocker, because he is a devastating
run blocker, and as it turned out, he's developed beautifully
as a pass catcher. Now you get the best of
both worlds. In general, the Big Ten, it doesn't have
very gaudy past numbers as a whole. So yeah, you know,
really get a full read on the offensive ability of
(13:42):
a lot of the receivers in the Big Ten only
twenty two receptions his last year in school. Uh deebo.
Samuel runs almost half his place from Xavier Road side
of the field, where I think he's gonna line up
mostly um Roads. Inconsistent season a little bit better lately.
He's only allowed one touchdown over the past nine games,
but he's allowing an eighty four percent completion rate in
(14:04):
his coverage. Wow. If Jimmy Garoppolo needs a first down,
you throw at Rhodes, and more often than not, that's
going to be Debot Samuel on that side of the
field now, Emmanuel Sanders plays a slot primarily, and he
also plays on the right side, so he plays really
all over but the slot on the right side mostly.
He's got um reasonably favorable matchups in both cases. From
(14:27):
the slot, it's a lot of mismatch because the Vikings
are probably gonna have to use converted a safety Andrewson
Dajo to try to guard it. One of the slippery
ist receivers out there in Emmanuel Sanders. That feels like
a mismatch for Emmanuel Sanders on the outside. I think
sanders quick short space quickness is a matchup problem for
(14:48):
Trey Waynes, who was a straight line speed guy. I
think Sanders could be a valuable weapon here as well,
and I like him too. Also, Kyle us Check is
something that could be an X factor as well. I
don't would use them in like daily, but you never know, Alright,
last thing. San Francisco's run defense, Uh, Mostard has been great.
He's become the team's Would you use him in daily?
(15:08):
If say you were married to a girl from the
Bachelor who I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna probably most
of it's become the go to runner. Double digit carries
in five straight games, averaging five point six yards per carry.
He has scored in six straight games. Most of it
would be the guy to own for sure. They do
use three or four backs, but the Niners run game
(15:29):
never gets a week off. That's always the most important
thing to trying to establish. They rank number two in
rushing attempts, number one rushing yards by running backs, number
one in rushing touchdowns, and they are also number two
I believe in when when they have the lead in
rushing attempts. With the lead, and if you think that,
if you think them as seven point favorites, I'll have
the lead. There you go, if you allow me to
(15:51):
pile on here that This is from Warren Sharp at
Sharper Football. If you don't follow him on Twitter, you should. Um.
According to him, the Vikings are the end fills worst
defense against runs from twenty one personnel and that's two
running backs tight end to wider series, allowing six point
nine yards per carry and success rate. No team runs
(16:13):
from personnel more than the Niners runs the NFL average.
So that's adding up, it really is, and Mostard should
be the primary beneficiary here. Now they of course they're
going to use their other backs in there too, um.
But Mostard has earned the right to be the lead
back and he's the first choice here. Vikings are oh
(16:35):
and five when imposing back hits one hundred yards. I'm
sure that they will try to get Mostard into that
kind of territory here. All right, let's uh, let's take
a quick break, Brian, and then let's go on to
the next game, Tennessee taking on Baltimore, a power run
team against a power run team. We'll we'll talk about
(16:56):
how that one breaks out for the various fantasy players here,
and it's chock full of fantasy goodness when we come
back in just a moment. Welcome back, Paul, charging with you.
Brian Johnson is my co host. We're breaking down the
divisional round playoff games fantasy style. We just did a
probably all two lengthy breakdown of Vikings and Niners. Hey,
this is the last week, not the last weekend, but
(17:18):
this is like the last full weekend people want, I think,
so on two games to break down. Uh, Tennessee taking
on Baltimore. Uh. Let's start on the passing side here
with Ryan Tannehill eight and three as a starter. He's
coming off being the NFL's offensive player of December, so
he rolls in hot. He just beat the Patriots in Foxboro,
(17:39):
albeit on eight completions attempts. Eight completions, Yeah, eight complete,
seventy two yards. Uh, talk to me, how about how
you feel about Ryan Tannehill in this matchup? You can't
feel too good about Tannehill because he's going up against
arguably the top cornerback trio in the NFL and Jimmy
Smith um Mark's Peters in Marlin Country and since week nine,
(18:00):
um they had already acquired Peters at that point, but
Jimmy Smith was hurt so at week nine is when
Jimmy Smith came back, and then you know Boltron was
fully formed in that secondary. The Ravens are allowing a
hundred and sixty two passing yards per game. But so
you know, if you're talking daily, you're not gonna use
Tannehill in in cash games. He's too risky. He's a
very contrarian tournament play, which is essentially gonna be everyone
(18:22):
except Derrick Kenny. But uh, but yeah, going over to
Tannehill's pass catchers will start with a J. Brown, as
we all know, came on really strong towards the end
of the season. I think he'll win Rookie of the Year.
Probably he deservedly servedly so, I would say. But he
did see Houston twice in that span in weeks fifteen
and seventeen, Oakland in week fourteen. He did struggle mightily
(18:43):
last week because we all saw against Stephon Gilmour that
was a tough matchup. Week sixteen against New Orleans another
tough matchup. Uh, two targets, just one catch, and this
is another very tough matchup, maybe the toughest one of
those three. So you know, the recency bias people are
gonna be petrified of using a J. Brown, which you
should be, but again, he is a manimal. Uh, he's
(19:05):
good and he's the only the only really viable target
that Tannehill's got when he drops back and you want
anything to happen. Yep, Corey Davis. The only reason I'm
even mentioning him is it's his birthday on Saturday, his
actual birthday. You know, I love me a birthday. Scientific
uh scientific fact, you'll go off notice kidding. He did
not have a catch last week in New England. Again,
(19:27):
another brutal matchup. So Corey Davis, let's let's let's move on.
I don't really want to move on to Taj Sharp
or Adam Humphries. Humphreries didn't play last week. He might
play this week, but Marlon Humphrey is gonna shut down
either one of these guys. Humphreries only allowed three touchdowns
this season. Two went to James and Crowder in one game,
which is a major outlier. He's just blanking people in
the slot. Really, outside of a J. Brown, you might
(19:50):
be looking at the tight end position for Ryan Tannehill's
hop target, and no it is not John new Smith anymore.
It is Anthony Firk Sir, who ran sevent of sentiments
routes from the slot last week essentially working as a
slot wide receiver, ran more UH routes from the slot
than Taj Sharp. John Smith ran zero routes from the slot.
(20:11):
Smith traditional tight end. So Brookeser is your guy, and
he's the one I would maybe targeting daily, just kinda
as a contrarian differential water on that no tight end
is top thirty seven yards against Baltimore since Week four,
that was September. Thirty seven yards is nothing, that's a
it's that is a uber contrarian play that I'm sure
(20:35):
he's salary capt minimum. He'll free up some free up
some caategory. You know. There's basically I don't expect a
very high ceiling from Firster. I guess we can still
expect the very high scheeling from Derrick Henry though right
probably yes, just dominated the Patriots as we all saw
when it comes to the run, the Ravens have allowed
more rush yards on fewer attempts than New England and
(20:55):
ten more rushing touchdowns when the Patriots had. So we
also what Henry did to the Patriots. I mean he's
gonna quite literally have to carry the teams to victory
in this one. Ravens are ranked fourth against the past
uh by d v O A un against the past
against the run, least resistance is on the ground. But
(21:20):
I gotta mention Dean Lewis right charge you would only
because it's you. It's the passing work you'd expect from him.
But only three running backs have topped three catches against
Baltimore all season. Only two opposing running backs have topped
forty receiving yards, and only one running back has caught
a touchdowns and that was that was Shady McCoy. And
we had this the average game for Derrick Henry since
(21:41):
Week ten average game. This his average game is a
most leads back's biggest game of the year. Twenty four carries,
one hundred fifty four rushing yards and one point six touchdowns.
Average game for Derrick Henry since week ten and week
(22:01):
ten was way back in like the middle early November.
That was that was I think that was roughly November ten.
So yeah, it's you know, he's been great in all circumstances. Well,
he's heading towards free agencies, so he's certainly running motivated.
He getting more motivated by the week. It seems like
uh Lamar Jackson don't know how motivated he needs to be.
(22:23):
He's playing great, obviously, the only quarterback in NFL history
to average eighty rushing yards per game. When it comes
to rushing quarterbacks, though Tennessee held the I don't know
if anyone's comparable to uh Lamar Jackson, but the closest
comps are Josh Allen DeShawn Watson. Josh Allen ten carries
for twenty seven yards against Tennessee this year Deshaun Watson
seven carries for thirty two. So maybe there is a
(22:45):
little bit of a ceiling being capped for l Jacks
when it comes and running the ball, but the Titans
have surrendered multiple passing scores in the eleven of seventeen
regular season games. The only question with Lamar Jackson is
do you fade him in tournaments or not? Or like
in Like in any playoff style game, you can only
use a player once. Maybe this isn't the week you
want to use Lamar Jackson. Then again, maybe it is.
(23:05):
Maybe at least cornerbacks Tremaine Brock and Ty Smith and
Logan Ryan. You yeah, Doriy Jackson will make his return.
We'll get to him in a minute, but uh, that's
when we'll talk about Mark He's Brown. We're gonna talk
about Mark Andrews first, the top pass catcher on the
Baltimore Ravens. Your games with the number of games with
at least fifty yards for Ravens pass catchers, Mark Andrews
(23:27):
has eight, Mark He's Brown, three miles boy Can and
Willia's need to seth Roberts one. Andrews has more than
all those guys combined. And it's only fifty yards. Fifty
Your leading receiver, Marquis Brown has hit it what was it?
Three times? Ah? Yeah, three times? Three times and over
the last over their last seven regular season games, the
Titans have allowed five tight end touchdowns, four tight ends
(23:48):
of top seventy yards during that span. So you gotta
love Mark Andrews in this game. Even Ben Watson had
three catches for three eight yards against the Titans last week,
and uh, he's he's decomposing corpse at this point. And
I don't know if if you're gonna try and be
a contrarian at the tight end position with Baltimore. I
like Hayden Hurst a little more than Nick Boyle, But
let's not discuss those guys. You're throwing darts at that point.
You're throwing darts at that point for sure. Over the
(24:10):
wide receivers, Marcus Brown just talked about him, hasn't seen
more than four targets and eight of his last nine games.
He's really been struggling with lower leg injuries all season.
And if he doesn't score, you get nothing, you get nothing,
and a Dory Jackson practicing full on Thursday, he will
be back. He will be locked down on Hollywood Brown.
So I'm not liking Marcy's Brown. I'm not liking any
(24:30):
of the wide receivers for as a as a because
the outside corners are really bad. Brock and Smith are
really bad. If we think that Marquis Brown is not
healthy enough or not mature enough to make a big impact,
here is boy Can a contrarian play that nobody's going
to have in DFS most likely, and I would I
would lean to using him more so if I was
(24:51):
using l Jackson is pairing him, pairing him up and
hoping for the you know, the double down there, because
if you have La mar Jackson and Boyken doesn't do anything,
you still might be all right, it's true, but because yeah,
boy can will come in cheap on most especially on
fan Ball, So yeah, I like that. Even though Willie
Snead has seen the most snaps of all Ravens wide receivers,
he did never see enough targets. And then Seth Roberts
is a thing, but not so much on this show anymore.
(25:15):
Now it gets sticky at running back charged mark Ingram.
You don't know if he's gonna go even know if
he's gonna play it. It's it is, it's serious grade
a day with calf injury. And you know he hasn't
topped fifteen carries since Week five. Only three running backs
have top ninety rushing yards against Tennessee Christian McCaffrey, Carlos Hide,
Leonard Fournette, and they all needed twenty four carries to
(25:37):
get there or Fade and Ingram, And I can't take
Ingram hard. Gus Sadwards, on the other hand, he's cheap
and he's gonna get carries anyway career five point three
yards per carry. He's proven he can be a lead
back and uh, and you know Justice Hill is going
to come into play here too. Only the Colts allowed
more catches running backs this year than the Titans. Yeah,
(25:57):
so about that, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill both in play
even if Ingram has suited up. But I don't know.
I'm worried about mark ingram Man time too. I I
can't unless something changes between now and kickoff. And I
feel a lot better about mark Ingram's health. I'm not
risking it. Calf injuries are tricky. They can you can
have a setback easily. He said he's had a setback
(26:18):
this week. Essentially he's getting worse rather than better for him. Um,
we'll take let's yeah, we'll we'll take we'll take one
more break. This is gonna be the last break of
this one, and then we'll we'll knock on the last
the last couple of games. Um, including well it's not including.
There's only two other games, Houston taking on Kansas City
and also Seattle taking on Green Bay. We'll talk about those,
(26:41):
Paul charging Brian Johnson with you just a second, all right?
We are back, um, Brian, Yeah, NFC green Bay. Uh
in the odd position of rooting for the Vikings last
week so that they could get Seattle a much easier
out than San Francisco. I think by anybody's estimation. Right now,
(27:02):
Um it's a primrose path for Seattle right now. As
um as they get to the face Seattle and then
you know, the Vikings win, that'd be even better. You
get the Vikings at home, will be already be twice
Seattle's let's starry. Let's start with this. The Seattle rush
is a rushing game is a complete disaster. They got
one yard per carry out of Marshall and Lynch. There's
this convention, and he's scored in both games that he's
(27:24):
been back for. There's this sort of conventional wisdom. I
think maybe because he's Marshawn Lynch and because he scored
touchdowns in each game, that somehow this running game is solved.
It's awful. The last two weeks Seattle averaging two point
eight yards per carry. Travis Homer frankly has been better
than Marshawn Lynch, who just to me, to my eyes,
(27:46):
Lynch looks pretty much cooked. He's pretty washed about Robert
Turban maybe, you know, maybe in Turbans thirty, which shocked me,
you know, for I know he's bounced around a lot,
but how do you get to be thirty years old? Um? Now,
The green Bay run defense has been battle year and
it's bad now, and Seattle would love to get the
running games started, but I just I can't trust them.
(28:08):
I can't trust Seattle here. Um, the Vikings with their
backup runners failed to get anything done against against green
Bay's run defense. So I think there's a point at
which you know your backup runners just can't get it
done against green Bay, and this is it. So i'm
i'm I'm avoiding Marshall Lynch and Travis Homer here. Seattle's
passing game those is more intriguing, but it's strength versus strength. Here.
(28:30):
Packers have allowed zero or one the passing touchdown in
five straight games. But the five quarterbacks they've faced Daniel Jones, rookie,
Dwayne Haskins, rookie, David Blow rookie, Sad Trombone Ski plays
like a rookie, and Kirk Cousins that's it. That's it.
(28:51):
So maybe the Packers aren't quite as good as we
as we think they are. They do have a great
pass rush at ranks and fifth by Pro Football Focus UM,
and that will certain challenged Russell Wilson, but he's used
to this and he's as elusive as any quarterback in
the pocket. Um hasn't necessarily been explosive this year, but
he's been consistent. He's scored in sixteen and seventeen games
this year, but his average game since November is just
(29:13):
two yards and one point three touchdowns, which isn't very much.
You want more than that. I was curious to see
the weather in Green Bake saidn't looked at It's it's
quite smild for a time. About snow they're shoveling right
Saturday might be the more snow or or Monday morning
they might. They needed seven volunteers to shovel out the
(29:33):
shovel out lambeau Field. I'm just not sure when that
snow is a sting this week? Yeah really yeah, I
think I think that's an hour soon or something like that.
It sucks for them, Well, there's seven volunteers, but Brian,
their owners, they're not there. Don't think of him as volunteers,
think of them as owners. Um now of course, by
now you know Russell Wilson's rushing is totally sporadic. You
(29:54):
can't count on that at all. Uh DK met Caflan
bonkers last week seven catches hundred sixty yards um and
a touchdown. He's um uh a great game last week.
He runs predominantly from the left side of the field,
where he'll face the green Bay's worst corner, Kevin King.
That's a nice opportunity for DK Metcalf, who I do
like quite a bit. In this game. Tire Lockett runs
from the slot a lot that puts him against Traymont Williams.
(30:16):
Williams has been shockingly terrific in this is eighty third
year of service in the NFL. He's allowed only one
touchdown since Week six. Really all year, only Anthony Miller
has had his number In the two games that Chicago
played against Green Bay. Jacob Hollister could be big here,
and I like him as your tight end option if
you want to find a cheap tight end. Green Bay
has given up big games, so pretty much every good
(30:38):
tight end they faced, Kittle, Kelsey Waller, Henry Olson arts
and while Hollister isn't at the level of those guys,
he's only maybe one tier underneath that if they decide
they want to use him a lot, and we've seen
games where they've gone to Hollister copiously. I like Hollister
in this matchup too. Let's go to the Green Bay
side where list regular listeners know Eric because I talked
(31:00):
about all the time Aaron Rodgers is so dangerous to
your fantasy viability. Get this. Here's this average game in
the second half of the season. So we're going all
the way back to early October. Average game for Aaron
Rodgers in passing yards. Would you like to guess, I'll
let you guess, right, two hundred and nine. I know
(31:24):
it's being generous. Average touchdown passes zero point nine, you're
close one point to five, but it's really masked by
he had him he had a five touchdown game. Um,
if I took that five touchdown game out, which wouldn't
be fair, but if I did, he'd be well under
well under one yard he'd probably out of that was
an English major. That's why that's that's your problem right there. Rogers.
(31:47):
By the way, you know, we want to know who
else is dead on two hundred nine yards and one
point to five touchdowns per game like square on Sad Trombo.
I knew Sad Trombone Ski. Sad Trombone Ski almost exactly
the same stat line offensive stat line as Aaron Rodgers
(32:09):
now obviously Aaron rod I'm not suggesting that Aaron Rodgers
is as inconsistent, you know, like Aaron Rodgers almost never
throws it in complete an interception. I'm not even suggesting
there on the same plane of existence. But if all
from a fantasy only standpoint, the offensive production has been
worse with Aaron Rodgers than that that's always gotten got
(32:37):
and that's the whole problem. So you know, if if
they if they scheme to stop Davante Adams, who runs
from all over the field, and he's got positive matchups,
especially on the left side against Trey Flowers and also
in the slot against Hugo Amadi, I think I think
Adams can get his And you know, like the Vikings
new Adams was coming, they still couldn't stop and getting
like fourteen passes in a game. So I think Adams
(32:58):
will be okay. It's just there's nobody else that ever
steps up to your point, and that part has been
a disaster for them. But where you really want to go,
probably Aaron Jones finally getting the usage that fantasy uners
have been clamoring for for years. Here's his yardage over
the last four games for Aaron Jones one two yards,
(33:19):
fifty one yards, one hundred sixty yards, and one forty
three yards. It's three out of four dominating games. Will
take that. Jones and Williams can attack Seattle through the air.
They've given up big receiving games to runners in the
past few weeks. Kyle use check yards, Christian McCaffrey yards
(33:39):
through the air. The Vikings runners put up one eight
yards between them through the air. Um, They've given up
nine rushing touchdowns in the last five games. Aaron Rodgers
to me, is the best running back play of the weekend. Sorry,
thank you, Aaron Jones best running back play of the
week yet, all right, I like it. I like that right.
(34:03):
Let's go to the final game on our on our
set list here, and that is a what it's going
to be a one sided affair. I know Houston. I
know Houston beat Kansas City in the Week six matchup.
That was a long time ago. And these are two
pretty different teams. Now, uh tell me, you're tell me
how you feel about this one. Let's begin with Houston
side of the ball here. Carlos Hide was a star
(34:24):
in the first game. He ran for one sixteen yards
and one touchdown in the first matchup. What do you
think about this in the sequel? Uh? If they give
him that the ball that many times, he could repeat
those numbers. Kansas City was ranked twenty nine against the
run by A Football Outsiders d v o A, and
they allowed the fourth highest yards per carry. But again,
Kansas City could easily run up the score and take
(34:47):
Hide out of the game script. Uh. And they might
need to lean on Duke Johnson a little more in
this one. Who caught a touchdown in that week six game.
Duke has eight catches over the last eight games. Hide
has one, So the game script flips. We could see
more Duke and Hide. I'd rather have Duked and Hide
at the same salary cost. Yeah, but Duke will come
in cheaper. But even if they were the same costs
get over ownership. But thankfully he's even cheaper and Uh.
(35:09):
We talked about how only the Colts allowed more receptions
to running backs than the Titans in the earlier segment.
The Chiefs come in third. In that regard. Only the
Colts and Titans have allowed more receptions of running backs
than the Chiefs, who allowed a hundred. So I like
Duke in this one. He could Uh, be sneaky. Play
ownership percentage should be a little suppressed. UM for old Duke.
(35:31):
Let's see. Let's go over to Deshaun Watson, who had
two eighty and one passing four, two rushing yards and
two rushing touchdowns in that first meeting. UM. But unlike
years past, Kansas City has been very tough against the past.
The ranks six against the past by football outsiders. Uh.
One thing that would bode well for Watson is the
Chief's leader in sacks. Pro bowler Chris Jones was limited
(35:52):
in practice on Thursday with the calf injury. He just
talked about how fickle those could be. He's been added
to the injury reports, So that would bode well for Watson. So,
but didn't. Week six game charge Watson had four touchdown
passes dropped. Wow, will Fuller drop three? I remember, I remember,
I remember he had that big drop game, But what
this was I didn't remember which one. DeAndre Hopkins dropped
(36:13):
the touchdown in that game too, So and Watson still
ran for two touchdowns in that game. So just keep
that in mind, will Fuller. When Will Fuller had at
least three touchdowns the game before the game, after this
one you almost have like a six touchdown span. But uh,
but DeAndre Hopkins nine for fifty five in that first
game on twelve targets. You kind of know what you're
gonna get with him. He's a that's about his four
(36:33):
nine catches for six yards. Uh, could certainly go off
at any point. So he's not contrarian, He's not chalk. Uh,
He's DeAndre Hopkins. What can you say? Will full will
Fuller though, you got always gotta be worried with will
will Fuller. Wine injury could be you know, any play
could be his last. He could start, but you never
know if he's gonna finish the game. Uh. Like I said,
he dropped three touchdowns in that Week six game, So
(36:55):
you really have to wait and see come Sunday what
his status is. If he's out, that brings Kenny Stills
back into play, who he's been limited by a knee
injury this week as well. And uh, it's DeAndre Carter
who would step up if either of those guys cannot go,
Not Kiki Cutie who is basically been deactivated. Yeah, yeah,
he's done. He's done. So and um, the Chiefs, but
starting safety Juan thornhill On I R, which would move
(37:19):
Honey Badger to free safety, which really just mixes up
their whole secondary weaves them a little more susceptible to
the big play. So either Stills or Fuller, I'd like
Fuller is active. You know he they have high ceiling,
low floor type plays. They're not cash game plays, but uh,
certainly tournament plays and daily And another guy who could
be viable is Darren Fells Um Jordan Aikins was sidelined
(37:39):
last week with the hamstring injury. I don't know if
he's gonna play this week. Fells pretty much had a
full time gig. Fellas had six catches for sixty nine
yards in that week six game. Deacons added three for
thirty nine so ten catch hutter yard game and the
Chiefs have surrendered the second most catches too tight ends
and yielded the third most red zone targets to the position.
So especially if eight is out and uh, that should
(38:02):
do it for the Houston side. Does Are you gonna
say something that's good? All right over to uh? I'll
mention this. Uh. You know, Kansas City's past events has
been good all year and great down the stretch over
the past five weeks. The average passing game against Kansas
City to two thirty one yards and zero point eight touchdowns.
I mean, it's a good, vastly improved secondary. So I
(38:24):
don't think I don't think the yards are gonna necessarily
come easily here for Watson, um, but just maybe through
sheer repetition and volume, Watson ends up with a good
fantasy game. All right, let's flip over to the Kansas
City side. All right, Damian Williams. Uh, it's coming on strong. Finally.
I love this matchup. Over the last two regular season games,
Williams has total thirty eight opportunities that has carries plus targets. Uh.
(38:48):
That's compared to the ten from Darwin Thompson Shady McCoy
a healthy scratch in both of those games. Houston is
seven in d v o A against pass catching running backs.
Williams will get all the passworks, So you gotta love
Williams this week. I agree with you that Aaron Jones
will have the best performance, but I think Williams will
be the highest owned running back in Daily based on
price and just the sheer awesomeness of this match. So yeah,
(39:10):
you gotta like Damian Williams and this one. You gotta
like Tyree Hill, who had five catches for eighty yards
and two touchdowns in that Week six game, and that
was only on twenty eight snaps. Hill was coming off injury.
Then Houston has allowed the fifth most touchdowns to wide
receivers this year. So Hill is in a smash spot.
Who is not in a small smash spot. Uh probably
never will be for the rest of his life. Is
Sammy Watkins didn't play in that Week six game. But
(39:33):
let's just let's do quick rewind of watkins season. It
won't take long alright. According to Fantasy Football Today, Watkins
had thirty eight points in Week one. That's pretty much
standard PPR thirty eight points. He had like three touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill got hurt. You had Sammy Watkins, you drafted
in the seventh round. You're like, this is gonna be
a great season to get him back in my lineup.
He basically totaled forty five points over the remainder of
(39:55):
the season after that game, like the ultimate sell high
moment that no one took advantage of whatso ever, which
you couldn't at the time because Hill was gonna miss
like six weeks and you're like I gotta, I gotta
Patrick Mos go to receiver. Nobody's sold, right, and then
the price kept going down and then you couldn't sell.
So but you know it's Hill and Watkins, they dominate
the snap counts. Watkins another boomer bust high ceil. I
(40:16):
don't even we can say it's a high ceiling anymore,
maybe a high distance ceiling. But he's become a contrarian
dartthroat essentially, and Nicole Hardman is the one wide receiver
you would think about maybe saving some you know, some
coin in the DFS lineup. I kind of like it
in a in a in a bigger pool because Hardman's
got such so much big playability. Yeah, I do too,
(40:37):
and he'll come in cheap. He had four catches with
forty five yards in that Week six game. He basically
started opposite Tyreek Hill because Watkins missed that. But again
probably the if it's not Tyreek Kill that the past
catcher you want most on Kansas City is, of course
Travis Kelsey, who was quiet in that first meeting. Just
like four or five catches for sixty yards. Houston was
top eight and most yards allowed to tight end. So
you gotta love Travis Kelsey. He's been limited with a
(40:59):
a knee injury, but he should be good to go
come Sunday. And then Patrick Mahomes to seventy three and
three in the Week six game, a quiet day for him,
sort of sort of been a quiet season, even though
he's finished the top five quarterback. But the Texans are
very prone to the big play. They've allowed fifty eight
plays of twenty plus yards of this year. That's the
eighth most in the league. You know, if I if
(41:21):
I do pick eight quarterback Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes,
I think I'm I think Mahomes is gonna outperform Jackson
this week. At lower ownership, lower salary. I just feel
like this is gonna be a pop off spot for Mahomes.
Of course Jess can do the same, but should be
a good game. Uh, Damian Williams, let me go back
to him. Here's another statfree and Williams. Think about what
(41:41):
running back will catch a pass in that offense. It's
only him, you know. Lashawn McCoy is probably not even
active for the game. UM Houston has allowed the second
most receptions to running backs, the second most receiving yards
to running backs and the most touchdowns through the air
to running backs seven for seventies six received for Devon
Singletary last week. Last week, this is um Williams is
(42:04):
an awesome play. I want to I want the Aaron
Jones Damien Williams combat the right. See what I got
left after that? Because that's that is going to be
the key to my DFS lineups, I believe are those
two guys, and you know I'll scrabble together other stuff. Well, hey,
on fanball dot com, you don't have to pick a
quarterback though, because you can play super Elex. So I'm
(42:25):
just gonna and then I'm yeah, then l Jacks and
Mahomes and I don't even needed the rest of my
line What about? What did I keep my two tight
ends in super flex? I could go tight end tight end.
I could go Hollister Fells and get two super cheap
tight ends and crush a lot of the rest of
my rocks. You can play three tight ends with that
with two quarterbacks still, because dandel has the wide receiver
(42:47):
tight ends and then the regular flex tight ends. My
third tight end would be maybe maybe just go Kittle
and take the chalk. But as I mentioned, I'm not.
I'm a little bit nervous about the Kittle matchup. We're
we we love, we love akns this week. Right, that's yeah,
it was fell. That's my one punch right there. Thank
you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. We're as you
(43:08):
probably know, we're back every week of the season, and
we will and the off season, which is new for us,
and next week we'll be breaking down two games instead
of four. I think it's gonna be Green Bay travel.
I think it's Chalk. I think it's Green Bay traveling
to San Francisco. I think it's uh. I think it's
Kansas City traveling to Baltimore in all probability, but so
(43:30):
I play the games, find out Brian, great job today,
Thanks George, all right, thanks everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is
a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from
my Heart Radio, visit the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
Now along with the guys from fanball dot com. Here's
the host for Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul. That is me.
(00:24):
I'm Paul Charchy and my co host today Brian Johnson,
as we get ready for the divisional round. Hello Brian,
Hello Church. Uh, it's You're always excited about the divisional round, right,
but I'm really excited about this divisional round. Why is that?
I don't just seems like a bunch of great games.
And I'm not talking being a homer from Minnesota, because
I'm not a Vikings fan like you are. Of course
now you're you're you're Bengals fan. You wouldn't even know
what this is, like, what are the playoffs? Exactly? No
(00:47):
great games. I'm excited. Yeah, And uh, for everybody I
steered towards the Saints last week, sorry, I did not
think the Vikings were gonna win based on how they
had played down the stretch and a variety of other
factor so which we enumerated last week. We'll do better
this week. On helping you find fantasy winners as we
break down all four of the games, and um, I
(01:09):
think we may begin with Vikings at San Francisco, and
well that is the first game on the slate of
games Saturday midday, do we we don't want to discuss
any new head coaches or anything. There was one I
really wanted to break down what we thought happened at
the Jerry Jones Mike McCarthy slumber party, because I just
can't get over the facts that they had a slumber Yes, um,
(01:31):
you know, I think if you're Mike McCarthy, this couldn't
worked out any better because you gained the best roster
of all of the new coaches by a mile Dak
Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott a good defense, you know, Marie Cooper,
you know Michael Galli. But what you know, if you're McCarthy,
you go, you transition from Aaron Rodgers into this. You know,
it's even he can't bozoh this up, Kenny. Maybe we'll
(01:56):
see he got so complacent with the Packers, so complacent.
I'm just I'm not a fan. And it's not just
because here in Minnesota rooting against the Packers for most
of my life. It's because he did not maximize that
pack the packer opportunities he had at all. Impacer fans
will tell you the same thing. They don't love him either.
(02:16):
The best part of the press conference was one of
the reporters asked him if you thought that asked him
if if you thought des caught it, and he had
some a little bit very political Yeah, sure, um Ron
Rivera knew, Matt Rule, knew Joe Judge. Well, you know
(02:37):
we'll have to well if we've got a lot of
time to sort of shake those you know, shake out
how how we think those things will affect everything is,
especially with the Redskins as they're now Panthers North. All right,
let's go. Let's go to the games this weekend, breaking
him down fantasy style, beginning with the first one Minnesota
takes on San Francisco. Um, now the Niners. I'm hearing
a lot of bad stats out there about how the
Niners defense is crumbling. Well, yeah, because they were without
(03:00):
Richard Sherman, Kwan, Alexander jack Wis guitar to d Ford,
they're all back. D Ford's a game time decision, I think,
But it sounds like he's gonna go. So I think
this the Stevens goes right back to being as awesome
as it used to be. And man, can they pass
rush as a rush against the past you had. You know,
d Ford and Nick Bosa and Deforce Buckner and Eric
Armstead all excellent pass rushers. Niners said the fifth most sacks.
(03:24):
They ranked third in pass rush by Pro Football Focus.
That will stress this Vikings offensive line quite a bit.
I agree, yeah, And they're like, you're pretty much alluding
to their very well arrested, very well arrested They're gonna
be ready to go, undoubted. Undoubtedly, Kirk Cousins is thrown
exactly one touchdown in four straight games. I just don't
(03:45):
think the Vikings can win with one touchdown out of
Kirk Cousins because I don't see the running game coming
together in this one. And Cousins is going to throw
a lot more, I believe, than he usually does. In fact,
to drill down on that a little bit, San Francisco
has uh it gives up thirty two and a half
passes per game. Cousins only topped that a couple of
(04:07):
times all season, So I, you know, I think just
playing by trends, the Vikings are going to pass more often.
I think Kirk's gonna pass more often. I Gues's gonna
find himself at the end of the day. Not not
necessarily a win, but I think just through sheer volum
And you said, she ends up with a pretty good
game here. Now, what do you make of the ankle
of Adam Feeling? Yeah, let's talk about that. So they
won't tell us how it happened. We don't know. What
(04:29):
we do know is multiple multiple media reports saying it
was a deep ankle laceration. No thanks, Um, I don't
see how like people immediately jumped too. You got cleatd
I don't think you're wearing cleats that sharp and you
indoors on the turf, like if you've been in the
mud and whatever. Yeah, you were in the long cleats
that could do. But even then they're not sharp. I mean,
(04:50):
it's like track cleats, like baseball spikes. Yeah, it's not that.
So we we don't know how it has. Something weird happened,
something weird. Um, So Feeling is a huge X factor here.
Uh if he can go, he'll go in the slot
against cornerback Kwan Williams and uh more often than not.
He runs from all over the field, but I think
(05:11):
he'll hit the slot a lot. Williams has a lot
of touchdown since week too, but he gives up a
seventy two percent completion rate. So maybe theeling here who
was a major contributor to the Vikings when last week
ends up with Um a lot of catches and yards
but not necessarily a touchdown, Stefan Diggs goes up. Now
to understand the Niners secondary, you have to know Richard
Sherman plays one half of the field and basically erases it.
(05:34):
He is absolutely dominating. The average receiving game in his
coverage is one and a half receptions for fourteen yards.
Oh Man. Sherman is not allowed a touchdown since the opener. Brutal, brutal.
So if you're the Vikings, where do you line up
(05:56):
Stefon Diggs? They're not there? Not there? You know that's
where you hang La Kwan Treadwell out to dry or
Old A. B. C. Johnson out to dry, although Johnson
almost entirely plays a slot um or Hollins out to dry.
You're not gonna see. You're not going to see. I
believe a lot of Stefon Diggs over on the Sherman side,
(06:17):
because when why do that when you can go to
Kello Witherspoon instead, And that's the side of the field
that Diggs naturally lines up on. Anyway, pent of his
plays start on the left side of the field. Witherspoon
sees double the number of targets as Richard Sherman, which
is which makes sense. And he was brutal in the
final two games of the season, allowing four touchdowns in
(06:41):
the final two games. That's a Killo Witherspoon. He has
allowed more yards in the last four weeks than Richard
Sherman has allowed all year. So Diggs on Witherspoon is
an exploitable matchup. Better do it? Yeah? I like so.
I like Diggs more than I like feeling in the game.
Um cal, Rudolph has got an opportunity. Niners have a
(07:03):
lot of big games to Tyler Higbee, Jared Cook, Mark Andrews.
I'm a little bit word. He's gonna have to stay
in a block because of d Fort, Nick Bosa, Divorce Buckner.
It's you know, it's there. They can generate so much
pass rush. But you could try Rudolph in a pinch
if you wanted to, Well, I assume you're about to
get to Dalvin Cook right before you do that, if
you don't mind. I saw stat where I think it's
(07:26):
through Cook's career that he and Feeling have only played
ten games. That is probably accurate. That probably is accurate. Yeah,
so when they have played together, Cook and Feeling the
points and I think the implied total for the Vikings
is like nineteen and a half right now, and the
four allowed twenty plus points. I know we said their
(07:47):
defense is gonna be better than it's been playing, but
hell factor that if you're betting the implied over under
on the Vikings that they finally have Cook and Feeling together,
there's a chance Stealen does not play in this game.
I mean it sounds like it sounds like he's going
to go, and he's saying he's gonna go, But I
don't think it's a guarantee that he goes. Here, let's
(08:10):
talk about Dalvin Cook. San Francisco allowed all seven of
the rushing touchdowns they've given up in the second half
of the season, including four rushing touchdowns in the last
three games, again missing a number of players, um the
San Francisco seen very few workhorse backs. Get this, Brian.
Only two backs saw more than fifteen carries all year,
fifteen is not that much. That is weird. Um, they
(08:34):
haven't seen many particularly good runners, but they've done a
pretty good job on the ones they have seen. They
shut down Aaron Jones, they shut down mark Ingram. Um.
Mike Zimmer heard this stat forty and oh when the
Vikings rushed thirty times and that's astounding under Zimmer. Under
(08:54):
Zimmer forty and oh when his teams rushed thirty or
more times. Um, miners are giving up four point two
yards per carry on the season, four yards per carry
since December, then get a little something done here. No
back his top eighty nine rushing yards though against San
Francisco since week nine. Um, here's why, Here's why I
am worried about Dalvin Cook. Last week, the Vikings dominated
(09:16):
the first half of the game against the Saints, with
Dalvin Cook taking chunk yards. It was four yards, eight yards,
nine yards, six yards. And then in the second half
the Saints completely changed their scheme and they took away
Dalvin Cook and said, Kirk Cousins, you gotta go beat us.
They held kirk They held Dalvin Cook to one yard
per carry in the second half, and the Vikings only
(09:39):
scored one time in the second half, one scoring drive
in the second half. I mean, that's the blueprint, is
you take away Dalvin Cook from the Vikings and make
kirk O beat you. Now we did against the Saints.
It's not that you can't do it, but you're gonna
roll it. Do your dice and and make Kirko beat you.
And the Vikings took Dalvin Cook away from fantasy owners
and fantasy players too, because if I recall correctly, Alex,
(10:00):
the Madison had a couple of carries inside the ten
or five in the green zone. In red zone at
least one I remember seeing. So they still like using Madison. Uh,
you know, deep in enemy territory, we'll see the Saints
changed their scheme to put players in the slot. They
put a linebacker off of the off of an edge rusher,
or put a safety off an edge rusher, and they
(10:21):
would take away all the edge rushing for the Vikings
on one side or the other and sometimes both cases.
Viking she pass deep to try to break that up,
but I don't know if it's gonna work. By the way,
one other thing about Dalvin Cook A lot of yard
is coming through the air. The screen game may not
work here because San Francisco is allowed the third fewest
running back receptions, the second fewest running back yards, and
the and no touchdowns through the air. Theyn't give any
(10:41):
receiving touchdowns are running back all year? How about that?
So I don't love cooking this game. Uh. The Vegas
over under for yards is seventy seven rushing yards. I'm
under I haven't seen a total yard or receiving yard
for cook outline. Let's go to the San Francisco side
Saints had. The Saints last week had seven passing plays
of fourteen or more yards seven against the Vikings, and
(11:04):
since Week ten, San Francisco's had the third most explosive
passing plays. So I think there's a chance for some
downfield passing here on the Vikings. Um. The Vikings past
defense has had problems, but oddly enough, five straight opposing
quarterbacks and from zero or one touchdown, and that includes
some decent pastors like Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers and
Drew Brees. So it's a bit of a bend, but
don't break um. Defense for the Vikings. They give up
(11:28):
they give up plays, but they doesn't always turn into
a lot of fantasy points. Affect six the last seven
quarterbacks of thrown for two hundred forty yards or less
for Garoppolo. Garoppolo's biggest target George Kittle. I got some
stats for you. I'm ready, always ready. I dug into
Kittle's usage, Brian he is lethal in the middle of
(11:50):
the field. Pro football Focus showing he has almost eight
hundred yards in the middle of the field. Only eight
hundred yards by tight ends a good season for all
the catches. Kittle has eight hundred in the middle of
the field where Garoppolo is a passer rating of one
twenty on his throws to Kittle in the middle of
the field and a completion percentage of eight. But the
(12:16):
Vikings inside linebacker Eric Kendricks awesome. He is Pro Football
Focus his highest rated linebacker in coverage. He is the
linebacker in the NFL who has run the most coverage plays.
He ranks number one in pass breakups, he's number one
in past completion percentage allowed, and he has the third
(12:39):
lowest passer rating in his coverage. Eric Kendricks the Vikings
might be ideally suited to take away from George Kittle.
The thing he does best catching balls over the middle
of the field is going to meet the road. You're saying, huh,
all right, can't wait. I can't wait either. Um Kittle,
by the way, catches without a drop this year. Uh.
(12:59):
You know, there were at least six tight ends tight
ends drafted before George Getley was drafted in the fifth round.
Fifth round. But his college stats we're talking about today
in the radio, his college stats couldn't have been more mundane.
You had we think that we're speculating his run blocking
is so good. I think people looked at the body
type on him and said, here's this guy who's incredibly
(13:22):
big and strong, and the worst thing that happens is
he doesn't develop as a receiver, like we think we've
got a great run blocker, because he is a devastating
run blocker, and as it turned out, he's developed beautifully
as a pass catcher. Now you get the best of
both worlds. In general, the Big Ten, it doesn't have
very gaudy past numbers as a whole. So yeah, you know,
really get a full read on the offensive ability of
(13:42):
a lot of the receivers in the Big Ten only
twenty two receptions his last year in school. Uh deebo.
Samuel runs almost half his place from Xavier Road side
of the field, where I think he's gonna line up
mostly um Roads. Inconsistent season a little bit better lately.
He's only allowed one touchdown over the past nine games,
but he's allowing an eighty four percent completion rate in
(14:04):
his coverage. Wow. If Jimmy Garoppolo needs a first down,
you throw at Rhodes, and more often than not, that's
going to be Debot Samuel on that side of the
field now, Emmanuel Sanders plays a slot primarily, and he
also plays on the right side, so he plays really
all over but the slot on the right side mostly.
He's got um reasonably favorable matchups in both cases. From
(14:27):
the slot, it's a lot of mismatch because the Vikings
are probably gonna have to use converted a safety Andrewson
Dajo to try to guard it. One of the slippery
ist receivers out there in Emmanuel Sanders. That feels like
a mismatch for Emmanuel Sanders on the outside. I think
sanders quick short space quickness is a matchup problem for
(14:48):
Trey Waynes, who was a straight line speed guy. I
think Sanders could be a valuable weapon here as well,
and I like him too. Also, Kyle us Check is
something that could be an X factor as well. I
don't would use them in like daily, but you never know, Alright,
last thing. San Francisco's run defense, Uh, Mostard has been great.
He's become the team's Would you use him in daily?
(15:08):
If say you were married to a girl from the
Bachelor who I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna probably most
of it's become the go to runner. Double digit carries
in five straight games, averaging five point six yards per carry.
He has scored in six straight games. Most of it
would be the guy to own for sure. They do
use three or four backs, but the Niners run game
(15:29):
never gets a week off. That's always the most important
thing to trying to establish. They rank number two in
rushing attempts, number one rushing yards by running backs, number
one in rushing touchdowns, and they are also number two
I believe in when when they have the lead in
rushing attempts. With the lead, and if you think that,
if you think them as seven point favorites, I'll have
the lead. There you go, if you allow me to
(15:51):
pile on here that This is from Warren Sharp at
Sharper Football. If you don't follow him on Twitter, you should. Um.
According to him, the Vikings are the end fills worst
defense against runs from twenty one personnel and that's two
running backs tight end to wider series, allowing six point
nine yards per carry and success rate. No team runs
(16:13):
from personnel more than the Niners runs the NFL average.
So that's adding up, it really is, and Mostard should
be the primary beneficiary here. Now they of course they're
going to use their other backs in there too, um.
But Mostard has earned the right to be the lead
back and he's the first choice here. Vikings are oh
(16:35):
and five when imposing back hits one hundred yards. I'm
sure that they will try to get Mostard into that
kind of territory here. All right, let's uh, let's take
a quick break, Brian, and then let's go on to
the next game, Tennessee taking on Baltimore, a power run
team against a power run team. We'll we'll talk about
(16:56):
how that one breaks out for the various fantasy players here,
and it's chock full of fantasy goodness when we come
back in just a moment. Welcome back, Paul, charging with you.
Brian Johnson is my co host. We're breaking down the
divisional round playoff games fantasy style. We just did a
probably all two lengthy breakdown of Vikings and Niners. Hey,
this is the last week, not the last weekend, but
(17:18):
this is like the last full weekend people want, I think,
so on two games to break down. Uh, Tennessee taking
on Baltimore. Uh. Let's start on the passing side here
with Ryan Tannehill eight and three as a starter. He's
coming off being the NFL's offensive player of December, so
he rolls in hot. He just beat the Patriots in Foxboro,
(17:39):
albeit on eight completions attempts. Eight completions, Yeah, eight complete,
seventy two yards. Uh, talk to me, how about how
you feel about Ryan Tannehill in this matchup? You can't
feel too good about Tannehill because he's going up against
arguably the top cornerback trio in the NFL and Jimmy
Smith um Mark's Peters in Marlin Country and since week nine,
(18:00):
um they had already acquired Peters at that point, but
Jimmy Smith was hurt so at week nine is when
Jimmy Smith came back, and then you know Boltron was
fully formed in that secondary. The Ravens are allowing a
hundred and sixty two passing yards per game. But so
you know, if you're talking daily, you're not gonna use
Tannehill in in cash games. He's too risky. He's a
very contrarian tournament play, which is essentially gonna be everyone
(18:22):
except Derrick Kenny. But uh, but yeah, going over to
Tannehill's pass catchers will start with a J. Brown, as
we all know, came on really strong towards the end
of the season. I think he'll win Rookie of the Year.
Probably he deservedly servedly so, I would say. But he
did see Houston twice in that span in weeks fifteen
and seventeen, Oakland in week fourteen. He did struggle mightily
(18:43):
last week because we all saw against Stephon Gilmour that
was a tough matchup. Week sixteen against New Orleans another
tough matchup. Uh, two targets, just one catch, and this
is another very tough matchup, maybe the toughest one of
those three. So you know, the recency bias people are
gonna be petrified of using a J. Brown, which you
should be, but again, he is a manimal. Uh, he's
(19:05):
good and he's the only the only really viable target
that Tannehill's got when he drops back and you want
anything to happen. Yep, Corey Davis. The only reason I'm
even mentioning him is it's his birthday on Saturday, his
actual birthday. You know, I love me a birthday. Scientific
uh scientific fact, you'll go off notice kidding. He did
not have a catch last week in New England. Again,
(19:27):
another brutal matchup. So Corey Davis, let's let's let's move on.
I don't really want to move on to Taj Sharp
or Adam Humphries. Humphreries didn't play last week. He might
play this week, but Marlon Humphrey is gonna shut down
either one of these guys. Humphreries only allowed three touchdowns
this season. Two went to James and Crowder in one game,
which is a major outlier. He's just blanking people in
the slot. Really, outside of a J. Brown, you might
(19:50):
be looking at the tight end position for Ryan Tannehill's
hop target, and no it is not John new Smith anymore.
It is Anthony Firk Sir, who ran sevent of sentiments
routes from the slot last week essentially working as a
slot wide receiver, ran more UH routes from the slot
than Taj Sharp. John Smith ran zero routes from the slot.
(20:11):
Smith traditional tight end. So Brookeser is your guy, and
he's the one I would maybe targeting daily, just kinda
as a contrarian differential water on that no tight end
is top thirty seven yards against Baltimore since Week four,
that was September. Thirty seven yards is nothing, that's a
it's that is a uber contrarian play that I'm sure
(20:35):
he's salary capt minimum. He'll free up some free up
some caategory. You know. There's basically I don't expect a
very high ceiling from Firster. I guess we can still
expect the very high scheeling from Derrick Henry though right
probably yes, just dominated the Patriots as we all saw
when it comes to the run, the Ravens have allowed
more rush yards on fewer attempts than New England and
(20:55):
ten more rushing touchdowns when the Patriots had. So we
also what Henry did to the Patriots. I mean he's
gonna quite literally have to carry the teams to victory
in this one. Ravens are ranked fourth against the past
uh by d v O A un against the past
against the run, least resistance is on the ground. But
(21:20):
I gotta mention Dean Lewis right charge you would only
because it's you. It's the passing work you'd expect from him.
But only three running backs have topped three catches against
Baltimore all season. Only two opposing running backs have topped
forty receiving yards, and only one running back has caught
a touchdowns and that was that was Shady McCoy. And
we had this the average game for Derrick Henry since
(21:41):
Week ten average game. This his average game is a
most leads back's biggest game of the year. Twenty four carries,
one hundred fifty four rushing yards and one point six touchdowns.
Average game for Derrick Henry since week ten and week
(22:01):
ten was way back in like the middle early November.
That was that was I think that was roughly November ten.
So yeah, it's you know, he's been great in all circumstances. Well,
he's heading towards free agencies, so he's certainly running motivated.
He getting more motivated by the week. It seems like
uh Lamar Jackson don't know how motivated he needs to be.
(22:23):
He's playing great, obviously, the only quarterback in NFL history
to average eighty rushing yards per game. When it comes
to rushing quarterbacks, though Tennessee held the I don't know
if anyone's comparable to uh Lamar Jackson, but the closest
comps are Josh Allen DeShawn Watson. Josh Allen ten carries
for twenty seven yards against Tennessee this year Deshaun Watson
seven carries for thirty two. So maybe there is a
(22:45):
little bit of a ceiling being capped for l Jacks
when it comes and running the ball, but the Titans
have surrendered multiple passing scores in the eleven of seventeen
regular season games. The only question with Lamar Jackson is
do you fade him in tournaments or not? Or like
in Like in any playoff style game, you can only
use a player once. Maybe this isn't the week you
want to use Lamar Jackson. Then again, maybe it is.
(23:05):
Maybe at least cornerbacks Tremaine Brock and Ty Smith and
Logan Ryan. You yeah, Doriy Jackson will make his return.
We'll get to him in a minute, but uh, that's
when we'll talk about Mark He's Brown. We're gonna talk
about Mark Andrews first, the top pass catcher on the
Baltimore Ravens. Your games with the number of games with
at least fifty yards for Ravens pass catchers, Mark Andrews
(23:27):
has eight, Mark He's Brown, three miles boy Can and
Willia's need to seth Roberts one. Andrews has more than
all those guys combined. And it's only fifty yards. Fifty
Your leading receiver, Marquis Brown has hit it what was it?
Three times? Ah? Yeah, three times? Three times and over
the last over their last seven regular season games, the
Titans have allowed five tight end touchdowns, four tight ends
(23:48):
of top seventy yards during that span. So you gotta
love Mark Andrews in this game. Even Ben Watson had
three catches for three eight yards against the Titans last week,
and uh, he's he's decomposing corpse at this point. And
I don't know if if you're gonna try and be
a contrarian at the tight end position with Baltimore. I
like Hayden Hurst a little more than Nick Boyle, But
let's not discuss those guys. You're throwing darts at that point.
You're throwing darts at that point for sure. Over the
(24:10):
wide receivers, Marcus Brown just talked about him, hasn't seen
more than four targets and eight of his last nine games.
He's really been struggling with lower leg injuries all season.
And if he doesn't score, you get nothing, you get nothing,
and a Dory Jackson practicing full on Thursday, he will
be back. He will be locked down on Hollywood Brown.
So I'm not liking Marcy's Brown. I'm not liking any
(24:30):
of the wide receivers for as a as a because
the outside corners are really bad. Brock and Smith are
really bad. If we think that Marquis Brown is not
healthy enough or not mature enough to make a big impact,
here is boy Can a contrarian play that nobody's going
to have in DFS most likely, and I would I
would lean to using him more so if I was
(24:51):
using l Jackson is pairing him, pairing him up and
hoping for the you know, the double down there, because
if you have La mar Jackson and Boyken doesn't do anything,
you still might be all right, it's true, but because yeah,
boy can will come in cheap on most especially on
fan Ball, So yeah, I like that. Even though Willie
Snead has seen the most snaps of all Ravens wide receivers,
he did never see enough targets. And then Seth Roberts
is a thing, but not so much on this show anymore.
(25:15):
Now it gets sticky at running back charged mark Ingram.
You don't know if he's gonna go even know if
he's gonna play it. It's it is, it's serious grade
a day with calf injury. And you know he hasn't
topped fifteen carries since Week five. Only three running backs
have top ninety rushing yards against Tennessee Christian McCaffrey, Carlos Hide,
Leonard Fournette, and they all needed twenty four carries to
(25:37):
get there or Fade and Ingram, And I can't take
Ingram hard. Gus Sadwards, on the other hand, he's cheap
and he's gonna get carries anyway career five point three
yards per carry. He's proven he can be a lead
back and uh, and you know Justice Hill is going
to come into play here too. Only the Colts allowed
more catches running backs this year than the Titans. Yeah,
(25:57):
so about that, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill both in play
even if Ingram has suited up. But I don't know.
I'm worried about mark ingram Man time too. I I
can't unless something changes between now and kickoff. And I
feel a lot better about mark Ingram's health. I'm not
risking it. Calf injuries are tricky. They can you can
have a setback easily. He said he's had a setback
(26:18):
this week. Essentially he's getting worse rather than better for him. Um,
we'll take let's yeah, we'll we'll take we'll take one
more break. This is gonna be the last break of
this one, and then we'll we'll knock on the last
the last couple of games. Um, including well it's not including.
There's only two other games, Houston taking on Kansas City
and also Seattle taking on Green Bay. We'll talk about those,
(26:41):
Paul charging Brian Johnson with you just a second, all right?
We are back, um, Brian, Yeah, NFC green Bay. Uh
in the odd position of rooting for the Vikings last
week so that they could get Seattle a much easier
out than San Francisco. I think by anybody's estimation. Right now,
(27:02):
Um it's a primrose path for Seattle right now. As
um as they get to the face Seattle and then
you know, the Vikings win, that'd be even better. You
get the Vikings at home, will be already be twice
Seattle's let's starry. Let's start with this. The Seattle rush
is a rushing game is a complete disaster. They got
one yard per carry out of Marshall and Lynch. There's
this convention, and he's scored in both games that he's
(27:24):
been back for. There's this sort of conventional wisdom. I
think maybe because he's Marshawn Lynch and because he scored
touchdowns in each game, that somehow this running game is solved.
It's awful. The last two weeks Seattle averaging two point
eight yards per carry. Travis Homer frankly has been better
than Marshawn Lynch, who just to me, to my eyes,
(27:46):
Lynch looks pretty much cooked. He's pretty washed about Robert
Turban maybe, you know, maybe in Turbans thirty, which shocked me,
you know, for I know he's bounced around a lot,
but how do you get to be thirty years old? Um? Now,
The green Bay run defense has been battle year and
it's bad now, and Seattle would love to get the
running games started, but I just I can't trust them.
(28:08):
I can't trust Seattle here. Um, the Vikings with their
backup runners failed to get anything done against against green
Bay's run defense. So I think there's a point at
which you know your backup runners just can't get it
done against green Bay, and this is it. So i'm
i'm I'm avoiding Marshall Lynch and Travis Homer here. Seattle's
passing game those is more intriguing, but it's strength versus strength. Here.
(28:30):
Packers have allowed zero or one the passing touchdown in
five straight games. But the five quarterbacks they've faced Daniel Jones, rookie,
Dwayne Haskins, rookie, David Blow rookie, Sad Trombone Ski plays
like a rookie, and Kirk Cousins that's it. That's it.
(28:51):
So maybe the Packers aren't quite as good as we
as we think they are. They do have a great
pass rush at ranks and fifth by Pro Football Focus UM,
and that will certain challenged Russell Wilson, but he's used
to this and he's as elusive as any quarterback in
the pocket. Um hasn't necessarily been explosive this year, but
he's been consistent. He's scored in sixteen and seventeen games
this year, but his average game since November is just
(29:13):
two yards and one point three touchdowns, which isn't very much.
You want more than that. I was curious to see
the weather in Green Bake saidn't looked at It's it's
quite smild for a time. About snow they're shoveling right
Saturday might be the more snow or or Monday morning
they might. They needed seven volunteers to shovel out the
(29:33):
shovel out lambeau Field. I'm just not sure when that
snow is a sting this week? Yeah really yeah, I
think I think that's an hour soon or something like that.
It sucks for them, Well, there's seven volunteers, but Brian,
their owners, they're not there. Don't think of him as volunteers,
think of them as owners. Um now of course, by
now you know Russell Wilson's rushing is totally sporadic. You
(29:54):
can't count on that at all. Uh DK met Caflan
bonkers last week seven catches hundred sixty yards um and
a touchdown. He's um uh a great game last week.
He runs predominantly from the left side of the field,
where he'll face the green Bay's worst corner, Kevin King.
That's a nice opportunity for DK Metcalf, who I do
like quite a bit. In this game. Tire Lockett runs
from the slot a lot that puts him against Traymont Williams.
(30:16):
Williams has been shockingly terrific in this is eighty third
year of service in the NFL. He's allowed only one
touchdown since Week six. Really all year, only Anthony Miller
has had his number In the two games that Chicago
played against Green Bay. Jacob Hollister could be big here,
and I like him as your tight end option if
you want to find a cheap tight end. Green Bay
has given up big games, so pretty much every good
(30:38):
tight end they faced, Kittle, Kelsey Waller, Henry Olson arts
and while Hollister isn't at the level of those guys,
he's only maybe one tier underneath that if they decide
they want to use him a lot, and we've seen
games where they've gone to Hollister copiously. I like Hollister
in this matchup too. Let's go to the Green Bay
side where list regular listeners know Eric because I talked
(31:00):
about all the time Aaron Rodgers is so dangerous to
your fantasy viability. Get this. Here's this average game in
the second half of the season. So we're going all
the way back to early October. Average game for Aaron
Rodgers in passing yards. Would you like to guess, I'll
let you guess, right, two hundred and nine. I know
(31:24):
it's being generous. Average touchdown passes zero point nine, you're
close one point to five, but it's really masked by
he had him he had a five touchdown game. Um,
if I took that five touchdown game out, which wouldn't
be fair, but if I did, he'd be well under
well under one yard he'd probably out of that was
an English major. That's why that's that's your problem right there. Rogers.
(31:47):
By the way, you know, we want to know who
else is dead on two hundred nine yards and one
point to five touchdowns per game like square on Sad Trombo.
I knew Sad Trombone Ski. Sad Trombone Ski almost exactly
the same stat line offensive stat line as Aaron Rodgers
(32:09):
now obviously Aaron rod I'm not suggesting that Aaron Rodgers
is as inconsistent, you know, like Aaron Rodgers almost never
throws it in complete an interception. I'm not even suggesting
there on the same plane of existence. But if all
from a fantasy only standpoint, the offensive production has been
worse with Aaron Rodgers than that that's always gotten got
(32:37):
and that's the whole problem. So you know, if if
they if they scheme to stop Davante Adams, who runs
from all over the field, and he's got positive matchups,
especially on the left side against Trey Flowers and also
in the slot against Hugo Amadi, I think I think
Adams can get his And you know, like the Vikings
new Adams was coming, they still couldn't stop and getting
like fourteen passes in a game. So I think Adams
(32:58):
will be okay. It's just there's nobody else that ever
steps up to your point, and that part has been
a disaster for them. But where you really want to go,
probably Aaron Jones finally getting the usage that fantasy uners
have been clamoring for for years. Here's his yardage over
the last four games for Aaron Jones one two yards,
(33:19):
fifty one yards, one hundred sixty yards, and one forty
three yards. It's three out of four dominating games. Will
take that. Jones and Williams can attack Seattle through the air.
They've given up big receiving games to runners in the
past few weeks. Kyle use check yards, Christian McCaffrey yards
(33:39):
through the air. The Vikings runners put up one eight
yards between them through the air. Um, They've given up
nine rushing touchdowns in the last five games. Aaron Rodgers
to me, is the best running back play of the weekend. Sorry,
thank you, Aaron Jones best running back play of the
week yet, all right, I like it. I like that right.
(34:03):
Let's go to the final game on our on our
set list here, and that is a what it's going
to be a one sided affair. I know Houston. I
know Houston beat Kansas City in the Week six matchup.
That was a long time ago. And these are two
pretty different teams. Now, uh tell me, you're tell me
how you feel about this one. Let's begin with Houston
side of the ball here. Carlos Hide was a star
(34:24):
in the first game. He ran for one sixteen yards
and one touchdown in the first matchup. What do you
think about this in the sequel? Uh? If they give
him that the ball that many times, he could repeat
those numbers. Kansas City was ranked twenty nine against the
run by A Football Outsiders d v o A, and
they allowed the fourth highest yards per carry. But again,
Kansas City could easily run up the score and take
(34:47):
Hide out of the game script. Uh. And they might
need to lean on Duke Johnson a little more in
this one. Who caught a touchdown in that week six game.
Duke has eight catches over the last eight games. Hide
has one, So the game script flips. We could see
more Duke and Hide. I'd rather have Duked and Hide
at the same salary cost. Yeah, but Duke will come
in cheaper. But even if they were the same costs
get over ownership. But thankfully he's even cheaper and Uh.
(35:09):
We talked about how only the Colts allowed more receptions
to running backs than the Titans in the earlier segment.
The Chiefs come in third. In that regard. Only the
Colts and Titans have allowed more receptions of running backs
than the Chiefs, who allowed a hundred. So I like
Duke in this one. He could Uh, be sneaky. Play
ownership percentage should be a little suppressed. UM for old Duke.
(35:31):
Let's see. Let's go over to Deshaun Watson, who had
two eighty and one passing four, two rushing yards and
two rushing touchdowns in that first meeting. UM. But unlike
years past, Kansas City has been very tough against the past.
The ranks six against the past by football outsiders. Uh.
One thing that would bode well for Watson is the
Chief's leader in sacks. Pro bowler Chris Jones was limited
(35:52):
in practice on Thursday with the calf injury. He just
talked about how fickle those could be. He's been added
to the injury reports, So that would bode well for Watson. So,
but didn't. Week six game charge Watson had four touchdown
passes dropped. Wow, will Fuller drop three? I remember, I remember,
I remember he had that big drop game, But what
this was I didn't remember which one. DeAndre Hopkins dropped
(36:13):
the touchdown in that game too, So and Watson still
ran for two touchdowns in that game. So just keep
that in mind, will Fuller. When Will Fuller had at
least three touchdowns the game before the game, after this
one you almost have like a six touchdown span. But uh,
but DeAndre Hopkins nine for fifty five in that first
game on twelve targets. You kind of know what you're
gonna get with him. He's a that's about his four
(36:33):
nine catches for six yards. Uh, could certainly go off
at any point. So he's not contrarian, He's not chalk. Uh,
He's DeAndre Hopkins. What can you say? Will full will
Fuller though, you got always gotta be worried with will
will Fuller. Wine injury could be you know, any play
could be his last. He could start, but you never
know if he's gonna finish the game. Uh. Like I said,
he dropped three touchdowns in that Week six game, So
(36:55):
you really have to wait and see come Sunday what
his status is. If he's out, that brings Kenny Stills
back into play, who he's been limited by a knee
injury this week as well. And uh, it's DeAndre Carter
who would step up if either of those guys cannot go,
Not Kiki Cutie who is basically been deactivated. Yeah, yeah,
he's done. He's done. So and um, the Chiefs, but
starting safety Juan thornhill On I R, which would move
(37:19):
Honey Badger to free safety, which really just mixes up
their whole secondary weaves them a little more susceptible to
the big play. So either Stills or Fuller, I'd like
Fuller is active. You know he they have high ceiling,
low floor type plays. They're not cash game plays, but uh,
certainly tournament plays and daily And another guy who could
be viable is Darren Fells Um Jordan Aikins was sidelined
(37:39):
last week with the hamstring injury. I don't know if
he's gonna play this week. Fells pretty much had a
full time gig. Fellas had six catches for sixty nine
yards in that week six game. Deacons added three for
thirty nine so ten catch hutter yard game and the
Chiefs have surrendered the second most catches too tight ends
and yielded the third most red zone targets to the position.
So especially if eight is out and uh, that should
(38:02):
do it for the Houston side. Does Are you gonna
say something that's good? All right over to uh? I'll
mention this. Uh. You know, Kansas City's past events has
been good all year and great down the stretch over
the past five weeks. The average passing game against Kansas
City to two thirty one yards and zero point eight touchdowns.
I mean, it's a good, vastly improved secondary. So I
(38:24):
don't think I don't think the yards are gonna necessarily
come easily here for Watson, um, but just maybe through
sheer repetition and volume, Watson ends up with a good
fantasy game. All right, let's flip over to the Kansas
City side. All right, Damian Williams. Uh, it's coming on strong. Finally.
I love this matchup. Over the last two regular season games,
Williams has total thirty eight opportunities that has carries plus targets. Uh.
(38:48):
That's compared to the ten from Darwin Thompson Shady McCoy
a healthy scratch in both of those games. Houston is
seven in d v o A against pass catching running backs.
Williams will get all the passworks, So you gotta love
Williams this week. I agree with you that Aaron Jones
will have the best performance, but I think Williams will
be the highest owned running back in Daily based on
price and just the sheer awesomeness of this match. So yeah,
(39:10):
you gotta like Damian Williams and this one. You gotta
like Tyree Hill, who had five catches for eighty yards
and two touchdowns in that Week six game, and that
was only on twenty eight snaps. Hill was coming off injury.
Then Houston has allowed the fifth most touchdowns to wide
receivers this year. So Hill is in a smash spot.
Who is not in a small smash spot. Uh probably
never will be for the rest of his life. Is
Sammy Watkins didn't play in that Week six game. But
(39:33):
let's just let's do quick rewind of watkins season. It
won't take long alright. According to Fantasy Football Today, Watkins
had thirty eight points in Week one. That's pretty much
standard PPR thirty eight points. He had like three touchdowns.
Tyreek Hill got hurt. You had Sammy Watkins, you drafted
in the seventh round. You're like, this is gonna be
a great season to get him back in my lineup.
He basically totaled forty five points over the remainder of
(39:55):
the season after that game, like the ultimate sell high
moment that no one took advantage of whatso ever, which
you couldn't at the time because Hill was gonna miss
like six weeks and you're like I gotta, I gotta
Patrick Mos go to receiver. Nobody's sold, right, and then
the price kept going down and then you couldn't sell.
So but you know it's Hill and Watkins, they dominate
the snap counts. Watkins another boomer bust high ceil. I
(40:16):
don't even we can say it's a high ceiling anymore,
maybe a high distance ceiling. But he's become a contrarian
dartthroat essentially, and Nicole Hardman is the one wide receiver
you would think about maybe saving some you know, some
coin in the DFS lineup. I kind of like it
in a in a in a bigger pool because Hardman's
got such so much big playability. Yeah, I do too,
(40:37):
and he'll come in cheap. He had four catches with
forty five yards in that Week six game. He basically
started opposite Tyreek Hill because Watkins missed that. But again
probably the if it's not Tyreek Kill that the past
catcher you want most on Kansas City is, of course
Travis Kelsey, who was quiet in that first meeting. Just
like four or five catches for sixty yards. Houston was
top eight and most yards allowed to tight end. So
you gotta love Travis Kelsey. He's been limited with a
(40:59):
a knee injury, but he should be good to go
come Sunday. And then Patrick Mahomes to seventy three and
three in the Week six game, a quiet day for him,
sort of sort of been a quiet season, even though
he's finished the top five quarterback. But the Texans are
very prone to the big play. They've allowed fifty eight
plays of twenty plus yards of this year. That's the
eighth most in the league. You know, if I if
(41:21):
I do pick eight quarterback Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes,
I think I'm I think Mahomes is gonna outperform Jackson
this week. At lower ownership, lower salary. I just feel
like this is gonna be a pop off spot for Mahomes.
Of course Jess can do the same, but should be
a good game. Uh, Damian Williams, let me go back
to him. Here's another statfree and Williams. Think about what
(41:41):
running back will catch a pass in that offense. It's
only him, you know. Lashawn McCoy is probably not even
active for the game. UM Houston has allowed the second
most receptions to running backs, the second most receiving yards
to running backs and the most touchdowns through the air
to running backs seven for seventies six received for Devon
Singletary last week. Last week, this is um Williams is
(42:04):
an awesome play. I want to I want the Aaron
Jones Damien Williams combat the right. See what I got
left after that? Because that's that is going to be
the key to my DFS lineups, I believe are those
two guys, and you know I'll scrabble together other stuff. Well, hey,
on fanball dot com, you don't have to pick a
quarterback though, because you can play super Elex. So I'm
(42:25):
just gonna and then I'm yeah, then l Jacks and
Mahomes and I don't even needed the rest of my
line What about? What did I keep my two tight
ends in super flex? I could go tight end tight end.
I could go Hollister Fells and get two super cheap
tight ends and crush a lot of the rest of
my rocks. You can play three tight ends with that
with two quarterbacks still, because dandel has the wide receiver
(42:47):
tight ends and then the regular flex tight ends. My
third tight end would be maybe maybe just go Kittle
and take the chalk. But as I mentioned, I'm not.
I'm a little bit nervous about the Kittle matchup. We're
we we love, we love akns this week. Right, that's yeah,
it was fell. That's my one punch right there. Thank
you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. We're as you
(43:08):
probably know, we're back every week of the season, and
we will and the off season, which is new for us,
and next week we'll be breaking down two games instead
of four. I think it's gonna be Green Bay travel.
I think it's Chalk. I think it's Green Bay traveling
to San Francisco. I think it's uh. I think it's
Kansas City traveling to Baltimore in all probability, but so
(43:30):
I play the games, find out Brian, great job today,
Thanks George, all right, thanks everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is
a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from
my Heart Radio, visit the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Cardiac Cowboys
The heart was always off-limits to surgeons. Cutting into it spelled instant death for the patient. That is, until a ragtag group of doctors scattered across the Midwest and Texas decided to throw out the rule book. Working in makeshift laboratories and home garages, using medical devices made from scavenged machine parts and beer tubes, these men and women invented the field of open heart surgery. Odds are, someone you know is alive because of them. So why has history left them behind? Presented by Chris Pine, CARDIAC COWBOYS tells the gripping true story behind the birth of heart surgery, and the young, Greatest Generation doctors who made it happen. For years, they competed and feuded, racing to be the first, the best, and the most prolific. Some appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, operated on kings and advised presidents. Others ended up disgraced, penniless, and convicted of felonies. Together, they ignited a revolution in medicine, and changed the world.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.