July 31, 2022 • 40 mins
On this weekend edition of Straight Outta Vegas, Bernie talks about preseason NFL betting strategies, being wary about first season head coaches, VSIN’s Amal Shah joins the show to talk about the Las Vegas Raiders upcoming season, Kyler Murray’s contract extension, and more!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listen to Fox Sports Vegas. Well. In a world
of questions, once again, we've got answers. In the world
of problems, we've got solutions. And as I said many
times before, Sports Well, they are the greatest reality show
invented and you can script everything but the outcome. And
(00:21):
on that note, I'm Bernie Frattawork coming to you live
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. Tonight. We
hit the dry running at a hundred miles per hour
and we'll speed up from there. In about fifteen minutes,
I'm all show from the Vegas Stats and Information Network
will join us talk about the enigma known as the
(00:43):
Las Vegas Raiders and their upcoming Hall of Fame game Thursday,
among other things. And in a minute, we're going to
take a deep dive into the undeniably profitable world of
NFL preseason sports betting. I'm not joking. First I want
to ream find you sports or entertainment, but they're more
than that. There are shared experience as such, people want
(01:06):
to talk about them. You've come to the right place.
We've got a lot to talk about tonight. This is
straight out of Against the Pregame show. You always wanted,
and as they say in Jared Allen Minnesota, it's gonna
be lit. You know you will. Hear people say occasionally
don't bet on preseason football, big mistake. No, not true.
(01:29):
It's actually easier than capping the regular season. And in
most cases you can read ahead of time the exact
game plan for each team. Who's gonna play, who's not
gonna play. That doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win, don't
get me wrong, but you look for edges as betters,
and frankly, how often in any sporting event will you
ever find Certainly not on the professional level, maybe not
(01:52):
even on the probably not the college of or even
the high school. Ever, we're one side really doesn't care
if they win. How do we know that? Because, look,
we've got plenty of data, and I'm gonna break down
four key reasons why betting on the preseason can be
and how it can be very profitable. And by the way,
make no mistake. Uh. For instance, you've got a game
(02:14):
Thursday night, the Hall of Fame game the Raiders and
Jacksonville tee it up. Two first year coaches, Doug Peterson
not debut coaches in terms of their NFL careers, but
debut and Josh McDaniel first year coaches for their respective teams.
Number one goal, don't get hurt. Okay, bully, I can
promise you that. Specially from the Raiders perspective, I think
(02:35):
you see a little bit more of a spirited effort
out of Jacksonville. We'll get that to that in a minute.
The game opened up Raiders minus three, it's now down
to minus one and a half. Moneies come in on
on Jacksonville. And by the way, and and and In
the years I covered the Lions, which is a solid
decade that well, that's those are just the years that
did the pre and post game show pretty much covered
(02:55):
the Lions from to two thousand nine when I left town. Look,
NFL preseason games are not a waste of time because
if you're a position coach and if you're an offensive
defensive coordinator, it gives you a chance to evaluate position
battles in a live game situation rather than just practices
and drills. And it gives organizations, personnel directors and such
(03:19):
an opportunity to evaluate their draft choices in the progresses
that the progress they make from year one two year two.
So there's something for everybody, and you're gonna be excited
when you wake up Thursday. NFL is back, um in
the exhibition season, as I said, starts Thursday, and in
(03:39):
the Raiders in Jacksonville. What we'll tie it up and
you know, let's just dive right in now as to
what I believe are the four key reasons as two
angles in terms of what do you look for when
you are betting preseason games. The first, first and foremost
are coaches. We have data on this. There are you know,
(04:03):
coaches who are who have been very profitable and active
in the preseason and very uh you know, they play
to win. John Harball comes to mind. Twenty nine and
fifteen against the number your plus thirteen units if you
bet on John Harball games. Baltimore rabits. Pete Carroll always
wants to win in the preseason twenty three and twelve
(04:24):
ub plus ten units. Mike Zimmer's no longer in the league,
but he was the same way, same with Gruden. On
the opposite side of the scale, he got guys like
Mike Rabel the Tennessee UM. He's owed four last year
against the spread. Uh Andy Reid has been well under
five hundred in his career. Bill Belichick, Uh, never really
(04:45):
cares much about the preseason. If you blindly bet Bill
Belichick in preseason games just in the last five years,
your mind, I statan units. So there's coaches who care.
There's coaches. How about Sean McVeigh. Here's a real classy example.
Sean McVeigh, hey coach at Los Angeles Rams, clearly hates
the preseason. He uses August to scout his younger guys
(05:05):
and keep his starters and keep backups healthy. The Rams
were all in three against the spread last year, mcveigh's
only five intended his career. And now they're coming off
a super Bowl victory and they open up what five weeks,
six weeks from Thursday night against Buffalo. Yeah, you really
think Sean McVeigh cares much about the preseason? No? So
(05:26):
there you have it. Coaches very important. How about first
year coaches? Now this is also very significant because not
only do we have a whopping ten first year coaches
for the three season in their first year. Uh and
and yes this can be a little tricky, but generally
(05:49):
first year coaches performed very well and their first August
home game, UM, this really started to take note about
six years ago when first year coaches went six and
one against the spread in their first home game, and
then every year it's been five and two, etcetera. Twenty
three and twelve on the ledger against the spread, and
(06:11):
the last five preseasons combined that that's about. You can
make all the money you want to make if you
hit seven percent of your bets and there it is
laid out for you. In In the last five years, first
year head coaches were a new team their first home
game in the preseason. Why they all want to show
the owner, the GM, the players, the fans. Hey, I'm
(06:33):
the right man for the job. And how about just
a little refresher on who these first year coaches are.
Matt eber Flows in Chicago, Nathaniel Hackett in Denver, Levey
Smith he's in Houston. Now I just mentioned Doug Peterson
and Josh McDaniel. That's a neutral site game, so neither
one of those who con for a home game. Uh,
(06:56):
Mike McDaniel, he's with the Miami Dolphins. Kevin O'Connell, the
new co which of the Minnesota Vikings, Dennis Allen New York,
New Orleans Saints, Brian Dable with the New York Giants,
and of course Todd Bowle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Another key factor is take a look at the schedule,
and what happens last week can often reveal what might
(07:20):
happen next week. What do I mean by that? Teams
who start owing one and they play a team that's
one and all, just keep an eye on that. Typically
the team who started on on one covers about fifty
seven percent of the time if they're playing a team
started one and oh. Now you've got a factor that
also into if you have conflicting information with respect to
(07:44):
maybe that oh and one team is visiting a one
on O team and that one on O team one
on the road. But now the coach, the first year coach,
has a home game and it's his first home game.
You get where I'm going with that. Don't overthink it,
but follow these simple rules coaches who like to win
versus coaches who don't, the coaches who are first year
(08:05):
head coaches. And then, of course, now the schedule. Another
angle to consider that's very important actually is depth. Now
this one is a little bit obvious. Joe Public often
gets worked up about starters and skill position players in
certain teams, certainly during the regular season, but it's the
same in the preseason. See teams that can go two
or three deep, sometimes four deep, and the skill positions,
(08:28):
they're going to have a decided advantage over a club
that has a few stars that will be sitting after
the first or second series. A perfect example is none
other than the Buffalo Bills, who basically, if you look
at the quarterback room, and this is very important, you've
got Josh Allen Case, Keenan, and Matt Barkley. That's gonna
(08:48):
be one of the better quarterback rotations they s August
in the preseason. Don't forget the Bills have not only
been running Sean McDermott's system for the last five years.
And yes they do have a new offensive coordinator and
Ken Dorsey, but he's also been with the Bills two
years ago as the Bills quarterback coach and passing game coordinator,
so there's a real smooth transition there. The Bills were
(09:10):
four and oh against the spread in the preseason in
two and one against the spread last season six and one,
So this is a situation where you've got continuity and
you've got depth. Now on the flip side. The Houston Texans,
they're gonna be breaking in a brand new head coach,
Levy Smith, a brand new offensive coordinator Pet Hamilton's and
(09:31):
a brand new defensive coordinator. Uh and their quarterback room
is Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driscoll with somebody
named Kevin Hogan learning a brand new offense. You can't
really say you like that kind of depth if it
comes to betting the preseason. By the way, the Texans
defense will also be learning a brand new scheme as well.
(09:55):
You want my humble opinion, I think the Texas might
have a rough preseason. So quarterbacks continuity or key NFL
preseason wagers, just like those during the regular season, can
often come down to the last eight minutes, the last
half of the last quarter of a game. So fine
teams that have solid depth of quarterback and or have
(10:17):
some experience or success in the league. When you've got
quarterbacks like the Buffalo Bills that Matt Barkley started a
lot of games, So those kids, Keenum and you know
what Josh Allen can do, not knowing how many snaps
Josh Allen's gonna get in most of the games, but
nonetheless you've got that situation there, the continuity, the quarterbacks,
the depth. When you've got a quarterback room like I
(10:37):
just mentioned in Buffalo, they'll have a tremendous advantage in
the closing moments of a game. Especially Remember they're most
likely gonna be playing a situation where it's a third
or four string defense. And some of those guys great athletes,
Maybe they were great in college. They might be working
at NAP Auto Parts next month. Nothing wrong with that.
Good Christian value is good hard work, honest way to
(10:59):
make a living. Every job you know is there there
there's integrity in every job. But that doesn't mean their
National Football League players. You should know that motivation is
different for every head coach. Not every head coach cares
about winning the preseason. But if you've got the depth, etcetera.
So who do you play on? Maybe in the preseason
in one team, I've actually got my eye on the
(11:21):
Detroit Lions. Now, Dan Campbell did go all and three
against the spread last year in the preseason, and I
think you're gonna get good value on a team this
year in the Lions, who has more depth than most
people realize. And also sometimes you like playing second year
head coaches in the preseason that had a winning record
against us spread during the regular season. The Lions were
(11:41):
only three thirteen in one last year. I believe that
was the record, but they were eleven and six against
the spread. The lines made your money last year. By
the way, the Lions offensive line is non ranked number
ten by Pro Football Focus heading into the season, and
I actually think the Lions have some some good players
and they draft did well, so you can't really go
(12:02):
to sleep on the Lions. You know. Look, there's a
lot of parody in the leagues. I was killing Ardy
and Aaron about an hour ago. Last year I really
started to dive into the handicapping for last year. If
you blindly bet every single NFL dog in the regular
and postseason, you bet a hundred blindly, you'd be up
(12:24):
twenty six units. There's parody in the league. There are
no you know, there are no nineteen two Dolphins going
seventeen and know this year, So something to keep an
eye on. Finally, so as we head into Thursday night,
do I have a best bet on this game? I
will tell you this side. I of like, I haven't
fired on it yet, and shame on me because I
could have got the total of thirty four. I don't
(12:44):
know that I want to chase it's down to thirty
three and a half now. Uh, I would look to
the under. Five of the last six Hall of Fame
games have gone under. Doug Peterson is nine and four.
He's the head coach of the Jacksonville Jacks. He's nine
and four in the under in his last thirteen preseason games.
Don't expect, by the way, don't expect either offensive team
(13:08):
to find any kind of rhythm in in this game
Thursday night. Uh. And so does it feel like a
fourteen to ten game something along those lines. Yeah, I
think you might see one series out of out of
the Trevor Lawrence and you've got a lot of young
bucks fighting for jobs. Defensively for Jacksonville, the Raiders don't
get hurt. I be shocked if any of their starters.
(13:31):
And remember, Josh McDaniel comes from the Bill Belichick tree.
Bill Belichick really doesn't care if he wins preseason games.
I feel you get more of the same with Josh
McDaniels here Thursday Night. As a man, I think you'll
see a bit of a defensive tilt for obvious reasons
teams barely hit now in the preseason, they will only
(13:53):
have had a little over two weeks to get ready
for a game in national TV game, you got travel issues,
all those sorts of things. It just feels like a
low scoring game to me Thursday night between Jacksonville and
UH and the Raiders are there. You have it. The
NFL preseason is upon us. An he likes to joke,
the preseasons of the free season. Laugh all you want, laugh,
(14:13):
clown laugh. I will tell you this, if the books
didn't feel that the players, the betters had an edge
on the book, you know, on the sports books in
the preseason more so than the regular season than why
the limits Solo in a regular NFL season, regular season game,
you can get down three grand in a preseason game,
would be lucky to get down a dime. So there
(14:36):
you have it. Coming up, we're bringing them all Shaw
from the Vegas Stance and Information Network. We're both here
in Vegas, who both live in Vegas. You know, it's
just like I am. They're feeding the Vegas Raiders, you know,
to us like water through a fire hose. Every day.
We'll break it down as to what we think the
Raiders will do this year, and we'll talk about Thursday
Night's game as well. I'm Bredi Frado but Comedy Alive
(14:58):
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studio. It's the
pregame show you always wanted, So don't go away. You're
listening to straight out of Vegas, the Great Birdie Frido. Folks.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
(15:18):
search f s R to listen live. Hey, what's up everybody?
It's me three time pro bowler Lavarrington and I couldn't
be more excited to announce a new podcast called Up
on Game? What is Up on Game? You asked, along
with my fellow pro bowler t J. Hudshman's OTTA and
Super Bowl Champion. That's right, Plexico Birds. You can only
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Up on Game We're going to be sharing our real
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(16:03):
on straight at Vegas the pregame show you always wanted
that Bernie Fradoll comedy Live from Las Vegas, Fox Sports
Radio Studios. Welcome and to gentlemen, he's here in Vegas
with me. He's with the Vegas Stats and Information Network.
Say hello to a mall shall you've heard him here
before them all? How are you, buddy? Hey, I'm well, thanks,
pretty good to be back on with you. Yeah, I
want to dive in. We're gonna get into the Raiders
(16:25):
per say, in a minute, but I'd like to start
out with Thursday's Hall of Fame game. Uh. In the
last ten games, only one has exceeded thirty three and
a half points, and that was back in seventeen. I
feel like we're looking at an under Thursday Night. Your thoughts, Yeah,
I would agree with you, and I'd also tell you
to jump on the line as quick as possible because
(16:47):
by the time we get to kick off that thirty
two and a half right now, and I think it
will come down even more just simply because people will
play this game. I remember you're if at all you
see anybody that's with with the first team would be
one series to max and even that's being optimistic. Likelihood,
probably you're not gonna see any starters um and you know,
(17:08):
there's no continuity for these other players. And let's be
real here, these are teams that are generally just going
through the motions because they do have that extra opportunity
with the preseason. So I just don't think you're gonna
see too much of it. From an offensive standpoint, from
the Raiders and the Jags completely agreed. And as far
as the side, I believe the Lions sort of settle
(17:30):
Raiders minus too. Uh. Jacksonville has a little bit deeper
roster with players competing for a job. I look for
the Raiders to just try to not get hurt. Jacksonville
have some guys fighting for a position. Thoughts on the
side if you have one, Yeah, Bernie, I thought you
brought up a great betting angle for the preseason. And
I like to look at teams that have a little
bit of a quarterback competition or some depth situation where
(17:55):
you look and say, well, we've got two decent players,
but nothing is resolved in terms of who's gonna be
the starter. It tends to be a little bit more
competitive from that side, and I think it's a really
good angle to me, if you're looking at this one,
I would probably take the Jags on the money line
plus one oh five and four go to plus some
point and a half here, um. But it's hard to
really sit there and say overwhelming from one way or
(18:15):
the other. Absolutely talking with them All Shaw of the
Vegas Stats and Information Network, let's dive into the Raiders
them all. I feel like we're really being force fed
the Raiders and Josh McDaniels and the new regime and
the sky's the limit. I'm I can't say I'm sold yet.
What is your knee jerk reaction about this team? Well, first,
(18:37):
let's start with Josh McDaniels. I don't understand how many
coaches have to come through new Eland and realize that
it's not Belichick and Brady. You know, I'll give you
the list, Roma, Romeo Cornell serious failure, bell O'Brien serious failure,
Josh McDaniels failure, I mean, judge failure. How many coaches
need to fail before people start to realize they're not
(18:57):
bringing top already with them. I don't even I didn't
even Mention and Charlie Weiss. Yeah, I mean it's Matt Patricia.
Thank you, I forgot about him. Actually, um, you know, look,
I'm not saying that McDaniels can't coach and he can't
do a better job the second time around. But let's
not get it twisted. I mean, you know, he wasn't
some great coach in his coaching Stutton, Denver. He was
(19:18):
eleven and seventeen. Uh So I would pump the brakes
a little bit. I like the talent. I think the
one thing that I think is really important when you
look at this team, I like the addition bringing in
Chandler Jones. I think Chandler Jones has been criminally underrated
in his career. I think he's been a tremendous player
that just kind of an afterthought in Arizona. But I
(19:41):
think he's a huge difference maker for them. Potentially helps
out Max Crosby quite a bit. But again, even with
that pass Russian proving, how good is that secondary gonna be?
Jonathan Abram not particularly great. I think Trayvon Mooring in
the secondary, I think he's got an opportunity really good.
But I saw some concerns about the back seven for
this team. How effective they will be. It remains to
be It mains to be seen how effective they're gonna
(20:03):
be in there. And look, I know it's on paper,
but this, to me, Bernie, is the most competitive division
I've ever seen, at least on paper. I couldn't agree
with you more. Hold that thought for just a second.
What I do believe the Raider's biggest strength will be
the receivers. I believe their biggest weakness will be their
offensive line. Talk about that for just a second. Yeah,
(20:23):
I would agree with you there. When you look at
this team on the offensive line, lots of concerns, lots
of question marks in terms of what they're gonna be
able to do. Look, Colton Miller is very solid on
the left side of that offensive line, you know what,
But the Studs still some concerns with Brandon Parker Lesser
Cotton on the right side. Um, I just don't know
how effective they're gonna be. Alex Lutherwood was a guy
who was expected to be a starter there on the
(20:44):
right side of the offensive line. Um, you know, he
looks like he's gonna be potentially running with the second team.
So there's definitely concerns there. And the reality in today's
NFL has been the case for a long time. And
I always go back to that oh seven Super Bowl
when we saw the Patriots getting man handled by the
New New York Giants. If you don't have the offensive
line protection, it doesn't matter if you've got Davante Adams,
(21:05):
said Josh Jacobs, Derek Carr, whomever. It's not gonna matter
if your quarterback can't stay upright. And I think it's
it's going to be crucial for this team to be effective.
The offensive line's got to be better than what we
had just be coming into the season. Talking with the
Mall Shaw the Vegas Status and Information Network, he brought
up a good point in Mall, they're in the most
competitive division in football. Who jumps at you? I still
(21:27):
think someone's got to knock off the Chiefs. I liked
the continuity between Andy Reid Patrick Mahomes would go from there.
I think you'll hear from Russell Wilson and we'll see
if this is the year that Herbert breaks out and
the Chargers did pick up Khalil Mack as well. Who
jumps out to you to win the division? You know,
(21:48):
I'll tell you it's a tough call. I'm gonna go
with Kansas City only because I think Mahomes is still
probably the second best player in football, Aaron Aaron Donald
being the number one player in my book. Um, And
even though Tyree kill is gone, I'm not as concerned
about the loss of Hill's completely because I think Mahomes
is the catalyst for that team. And you know, people
(22:09):
forget how effective this guy has been in his career
and what he's been able to do. And you you
mentioned it. The continuity with him and Andy Reid being
together for so long. I think that helps a lot.
They bring in sky More out of Western Michigan. Let's
see affective he could be in terms of deep ball threat.
I'm not as big of a Nicole Hardman fan as
maybe some other people might be, But I still think
Travis Kelsey is the difference maker and Clyde Edwards Hilaire
(22:31):
has been missing an action for the last year plus,
so anything you get out of him could be a
potential bonus. Um. I still think you've got to go
through Kansas City. With that being said, I know a
lot of people like the charges. I'm not high as
high on Khalil Mac as everyone else's din. I always
go back to that question that somebody asked Bill Belichick.
How do you compare Khalil mac to Lawrence Taylor? You
don't if you know anything about football, and um, you know. Look,
(22:53):
they'll be affective with him and Bosa. But here's the problem.
Boss gonna play only twelve of seven team games. It's
almost a guarantee he's gonna be sometime due to injury.
They got a talented team, but I don't like the
unnecessary gambles that the Chargers take. And then I look
at the one team that I think is a real
wild card here, and that's the Denver Broncos. I love
Russell Wilson. I think this guy is unbelievable, doesn't turn
(23:14):
the football over. Now here's an opportunity for guys like
Jerry Judy to prove themselves solid running game, good defense.
But I think Russell Wilson is a difference maker, and
I think he just elevates the program and the culture
when he steps in the building in Denver. Last one
for me, wrapping it up with the Mall Show, the
biggest stats and information network. I'll blurt it out first.
(23:35):
I think the raker, the Raiders. Ceiling this year is
nine and eight. I made my words, but they're gonna
have to prove it. You've got the floor. Yeah, I did. Look, Bernie,
I don't think that's a bad number you're projecting there.
I think that's probably actually right off parhere. I see
them somewhere between seven wins to to tend and he said,
they say, well, you're traveling defense. But the reality is,
we know that about six of these games are gonna
(23:57):
come down to one or two places. Do you execute
success to play in those situations? That's what's going to
be the key. Uh. The schedule to start out is
not particularly easy, but they do have Jacksonville, they do
have Houston. Uh, those are a couple of games you
could definitely add into the wind column. But I look
at this a sc I don't know how you see, Bernie.
Out of sixteen teams that you include the Pittsburgh Steelers,
(24:18):
I think you've got thirteen teams that are viable to
make the postseason. This is one of the most challenging
leagues I've ever seen any conference. But I tend to
agree to you. I think your nine win prediction is
spot on. I would go somewhere you said I had
to make a pick, I would say eight to nine wins,
They're right there, and then do you win the turnover
margin in game or two? That's what it's going to
come down to. Great stuff, fm all. Let's do this
(24:40):
again as we get a month into the season. Absolutely,
thanks so much, Bernie, appreciate the time. Thanks the mal
To Malls show, the Vegas Stats and Information Network. Uh,
pretty open minded about the Raiders. Good analysis. As far
as the depth of the a F cust lots on
Pack Thursday night, we both agree should be a low
scoring game. Remember last year in the Hall of Fame game,
(25:00):
both teams combined for a total of nineteen points, and
Mall brought up a great point. If you like the ender,
you better get on an noown. So they're gonna go south.
It was thirty four a week ago, a couple of
weeks ago, it's nine umber thirty three. I believe probably
gonna go down from there. Coming up, everybody else is
talking about Kyler Murray. I might as well throw in
my two cents as well. But first let's go to
(25:20):
Kevin Fingers with the latest Kevin welcome back, How are you?
Thank you? Bernie, always good to be with you. We'll
start with a Major League Baseball from Saturday. You got
the Rockies snapping the Dodgers three game win streak with
a five to three victory Clayton Kershaw, allowing all three
runs there and taking the loss. Abraham Torre pinch hitting
for the injured Julio Arriguez in the ninth inning, and
he actually drove in the eventual winning run as Seattle
(25:42):
beat Houston five to four. Home runs for Byron Buckston
and Collins Correa helped the Twins defeat the Padres seven
to four. William Contrez went deep twice for the Braves
and a six to two win over Arizona. Josh bell
at three run home run leading Washington over St. Louis
seven to six, Carlins Carrasco picking up his one hundredth
career victory, and a four nothing Mets went over the
Marlins went for the Brewers, Angels and the Yankees, who
(26:03):
got home run number forty two on the season from
Aaron Judge and Golf at the PGA event in Detroit,
Tony Finale tied with Taylor Pendrith for top billing through
three rounds at the Live of It in New Jersey,
Henrick Stintson as a three stroke lead, and at UFC
two seventies seven, Amanda Nunion has defeated Julianna Pana to
regain the bantam weight title. All right, back to straight
out of Vegas. All right, thank you, Kevin, and Kevin
(26:25):
of course be with us until three am Pacific, six
a m Eastern. All right, let's get to Kyler Murray
and for their record. And I don't like it when
people listen selectively. I like Kyler Murray the minute he
stepped onto the field in he almost upset the Lions
week one, drove him down the field that you know,
they came back from a big deficit. The man can play,
(26:47):
and he can operate from the pocket. He can play.
So let's get that out of the way right now.
And uh, you know the he's he's won games and
they weren't doing that before he got there. Okay, at
a quarterback and a coach for after one year, So
let's get that out of the way. But listen, now,
get to the meat of the issue. You know, Henry,
I'm gonna draw a parallel. What are your employers expect
(27:10):
from you now? Henry Ford. You may ever heard of
Henry Ford. He started a car company in Dearborn, Michigan
many years ago. I've actually been to the Henry Ford mansion.
I lived fifteen minutes from Dearborn, Michigan for a better
part of two decades Hender's. Ford once commissioned one of
his executives to prepare a study, and he told the
(27:33):
executive I want this report on my desk tomorrow at
eight am sharp. Sure enough, the executive had it there.
Ford calls him in at eight thirty, holds it up
in the Arran, says is this the best you can do?
And the executive says, well, you know, I'm working on
three projects at once. Give it back to me. I'll
I'll put some more effort into it. Has the report
on Ford's desk The next morning at Eddie and Ford
(27:54):
calls him in again at eight thirty, holds the report
up in the Arran, says it's just the best you
can do. He says, you know, one of my kids
were sick last night. I got distracted. Give it back
to me. I working out some more. He went back,
worked on the report, had it on Henry Ford's desk
the next morning at eight am. Ford calls him again
at eight thirty, holds the report up in the air
and says, is this the best you can do? And
(28:15):
the employee said, that's the best I can do. I
put every ounce of effort I into this, every ounce
of effort I could endo this report maxim my research.
I was up all night. That is it. That's the
best I can do. And Ford says, okay, now I'll
read it. What are your employees expect from you? Kyler
(28:37):
Murray feels disrespected from who they just gave him a
hundred and sixty million reasons to get over it. Somehow,
for some reason, the Kyler Murray contract had legs all
week and it's still does. People talking about it today.
He signed it five day five or six days ago,
and there's been enough twists and turns in his goofy
story to last the whole season. So let's unpack this
(29:01):
just quickly in case you missed it. Kyler Murray signed
his new Sparkling two thirty point five million dollar contract
extension Monday, and everybody was happy, and Kyler Murray was
much richer. Of course, after getting the money he wanted.
All good. Didn't remember now, whenever an NFL contract is
(29:22):
negotiated and signed and consummated, it's then sent to the
league office for approval and certification. Now at that point
becomes public and media guys and people who are intrepid
they have access so they can read the contract and
report on it. That's how this whole thing got out.
Well what got out well? News slowly trickled out that
(29:46):
the Cardinals chose to put a clause in Murray's deal
demanding that he conduct at least four hours per week
of quote independent study for the team's next game. There
were even stipulation about him not watching TV or playing
video games while studying. Studying. Now, this is real stuff
(30:07):
for an adult performing a job that's gonna guarantee him
a hundred and sixty million dollars. So obviously the dialogue
of this nature started to get loud, and they got
put out on Front Street, and then people started to
draw inferences. Did the Cardinals state Murray slacks off in
(30:30):
game prep? What kind of trust level is there for
this to even be part of the contract, And by
the way, Murray agreed to it. But then Carler Murray
got really mad on Thursday, and there wasn't this press
conference was not scheduled. They called one. He slammed, quote
the metaphorical you. That's me and you for doubting his
(30:52):
preparation and maturity. When when do we do that? I
didn't ask. I have no idea what his preparation is.
I just got done saying I think he's been pretty
damn down, Amica. On the field, he stuck it up
against the Rams. He looked like he was trying not
to get hurt. But that's a story for a different day.
But I don't think about his preparational maturity. And I
know he's in the national football he's having success. You know,
(31:13):
how could I call that into question? How would I
possibly know? How would any of us possibly know? The team,
by the way, wanted the clause, They started it, and
then Carla Murray agreed to it. So why are we
the ones that are disrespecting him? Who? What the hell
are we talking about here? Finally, late Thursday, then, to
make matters worse, I think the Cardinals gave in announcing
(31:34):
they stripped the class to Murray's contract and now they're
all hoping to move forward. You know, gee, I'm sure
nothing will fester here you watch. By all the indecisiveness
and all the goofiness, all I did was create a
situation where this will continue to be talked about. Okay,
(31:55):
what can happen next? Either this continues to boil over
even more or I'm not I'm not a gamer. But
if all of a sudden you see Kyler Murray's rankings
globally start to rise on call of duty and the
Cardinals start to lose games in the NFC West and
people get fired, well, then you know what's happening, maybe
(32:16):
sort of, or maybe he started given more. How the
hell do we know? Or then maybe Kyler Murray goes
out and win the m v P and the Arizona
Cardinals win the division. All I know is is you
know there are three types of people in the world,
those who make things happen, those who watch things happen,
and those who wonder what the hell happened. Please feel
(32:38):
free to put me in the third category, because I'm
trying to figure out exactly what the hell happened here.
I just wanted a one thing. If you want to
straighten us out, Arizona, and maybe you don't, maybe you
just shut up for now. Why don't you can. Somebody
please tell us why there's a reason the Arizona Cardinals
(32:59):
wanted that clause in the contract. Why they just just
didn't pull it out of left field, out of whole cloth.
There has to be a reason. There has to have
been one or more trigger events. There has to have
been a pattern something, And I have no idea. I'm
just grabbing its straws here. I just would like to
know one thing. Why did Arizona want that cause in
(33:21):
the contract? First, they didn't put a weight class in
his contract. No, guys, looks like he's in a world
class shape to me. But they put a study hall class.
Why what happened? What happened? Lucy? Wait? You talking about willis?
No one's No one's addressing that, and they don't want
to because it will get even more embarrassing again. And
that's what causes everybody to draw the inferences. And that's
(33:44):
why we've now come full circle. Deshaun Watson got two
hundred thirty million. I got it all guaranteed. Now Kyler
only got only, I say in air quotes, hundred and
sixty million guaranteed. But he did get you to notice
he wasn't gonna play for a penny more than Deshaun Watson.
And there's no reason to believe you won't finish out
the contract forty six million a year, five years. That
(34:05):
extra five out of come in nice and it makes
them king of the hill for now for about sixteen
seconds until the next quarterback exceeds what Kyler Murray got.
Onward and upward, and uh, the Arizona Cardinals don't have
a game this week, so I guess he doesn't have
to study the extra four hours this week. Oh yeah,
they took it out of the contract. And if you
(34:25):
followed all that, you're a better man than me. And
if you think that was weird, let me tell you
about a weird stat that's happening in Major League Baseball.
Is the MLB season continues. That's coming up next. I'm
Bernie Fratto her Company Alive from the Las Vegas Fox
Sports Radio Studios. It's just the pregame show you always wanted,
So don't go away. You're listening to Straight out of Vegas,
(34:50):
one of the best in the business, Bernie Fratto. Right
back on Straight out of Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted. Bernie Fratto Comedy Alive from the Las Vegas
Fox Sports Radio students for go any further. I want
to thank my broadcast team back in Los Angeles, Boll Benson,
Chris Perffett and Kevin Figgures on the updates tonight. They'll
be with me as you will to until three am Pacific,
(35:15):
six am, E. Straw. Before I get to my Major
League Baseball stat, I want to remind everybody my good
buddy Joe Gibbs, our NFL rough stat Scott. They here
you've heard on the last couple of NFL seasons. UH
texted me to remind me that after UH Denver fired
Josh McDaniels as the head coach, he became the the
(35:37):
offensive coordinator for the St. Louis Rams the following season. Yes,
I remember, I'm glad. Joe reminded me. They were two
and fourteen that year. Interestingly enough, that Rams team started
out oh four and oh in the preseason, proceeded to
open up the regular season, lost their first seven games,
(35:59):
and then of course it actually the Dolstar first six
at a bye week five UH, and then they went
on to go too and fourteen. The following year, Josh
McDaniels was gone. Brian Schottenheimer took over in St. Louis,
and all I would say is this is that. Uh look,
maybe Josh McDaniels goes out and wins the Super Bowl.
(36:19):
All I know is I gotta see it to believe it.
Without Bill Belichick by his side, I have questions as
to the results they're going to get. Maybe he doesn't
get them this year, maybe he hits them next year.
I'll be open minded guy, but I'm paid to have opinions,
and I do not have the faith that he is
going to lead him to the Promised Land like some
(36:39):
folks do. Maybe it's a little bit of wishful thinking.
We'll see prove me wrong. I'm hearing that he implemented
a very creative concept in practice that if a player
makes a mistake, maybe he runs the wrong router, misses
a block, you gotta run a lap. Who man that
now you're cooking, you gotta run a lap. I think
(37:02):
we did that in high school. But that's that's pretty clever.
I wonder if they're gonna do that in the games too.
You know. Let's say, uh, let's say Darren Waller, uh
mrs a blocker who runs the wrong route to just
run the lap in the game too. Why not? That'd
be entertaining. All right. I'm not picking on Josh McDaniels.
I'm doing a radio show here and I'm calling him
(37:23):
and as I see him, let's see what the Raiders
do this year. Save the tape. I'll eat my words.
I don't care. I just I'm I think they're gonna
go nine and eight. Prove me wrong. That's all. Proved
me wrong? All right. Major League Baseball season has what
I would consider to be one of the more interesting
idiosyncratic stats this year that there you have a situation
(37:45):
where there are a record tying number of teams that
are a on pace to win a hundred games and
other teams on pace to lose a hundred games. That
doesn't happened four each. The teams that are on pace
to win a hundred games are the Yankees, They're currently
(38:07):
on pace to one hundred and thirteen, the Dodgers they're
currently on pace to one hundred eight, the Houston Astros
uh at the rate the round the one five, and
the New York Mets, which Jason Smith I think will
be happy to hear the around pace to one a
hundred and one on the flip side of the coin,
(38:28):
the Washington Nationals, who just wanted all what three years ago?
They they're on pace to lose a hundred and nine games.
The Oakland Athletics, and here's why this is significant. Uh,
their win total this year I think was seventy seven.
But you talk about going under, if you're holding that ticket,
(38:48):
you're happy. Uh, you know, you're happier in the pig
and slop. Uh. The A's are on pace to lose
a hundred and five games, which means they win fifty
seventy cash a ticket going under twenty games by going
under by twenty games. Cincinnati Reds on pace to lose
a hundred one and the Chicago Cubs, unfortunately back in
(39:09):
Tramilior territory after the glorious season, they're on pace to
lose a hundred games exactly. Speaking of games, Thursday night,
you got a lot, you know, the Hall of Fame game.
Mamal and I both agree. We like the under. The
total is thirty three and a half right now, I
do not. You know, these games are not always easy
(39:31):
to to handicap in the sense of you don't know
what you you've got. But look in a game like this,
it's not judging about who's better, it's you know, both
teams are gonna rest their starters. I think you could
see Trevor Lawrence for a series, maybe one or two
under their new coach, Doug Peterson. I do think Jacksonville
has a deeper roster in terms of more players competing
(39:53):
for a job, where the Raiders are a little bit
more of an older veteran team and they're gonna just
have a heavy rotation of undrafted free agents, while the Jags,
I think they're going to evaluate some of their more
recent draft picks like Claivan Chasing and Levis Nalt and
Andre Cisco. I think the Jags might be a good
bet here getting two points. These teams had tend to
(40:13):
be close, and I don't think you're gonna see a
whole hell of a lot of offensive fireworks that's gonna
do it for straight out of Vegas. I want to
thank my broadcast team again and we will see you
in just a second for Fox Sports Sunday. I'm Fox
Sports Trader to keep it locked right here, I'm Bernie Fratto.
Will take you to three am Pacific, six am Eastern
Don't listen to Fox Sports Vegas. Well. In a world
of questions, once again, we've got answers. In the world
of problems, we've got solutions. And as I said many
times before, Sports Well, they are the greatest reality show
invented and you can script everything but the outcome. And
(00:21):
on that note, I'm Bernie Frattawork coming to you live
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios. Tonight. We
hit the dry running at a hundred miles per hour
and we'll speed up from there. In about fifteen minutes,
I'm all show from the Vegas Stats and Information Network
will join us talk about the enigma known as the
(00:43):
Las Vegas Raiders and their upcoming Hall of Fame game Thursday,
among other things. And in a minute, we're going to
take a deep dive into the undeniably profitable world of
NFL preseason sports betting. I'm not joking. First I want
to ream find you sports or entertainment, but they're more
than that. There are shared experience as such, people want
(01:06):
to talk about them. You've come to the right place.
We've got a lot to talk about tonight. This is
straight out of Against the Pregame show. You always wanted,
and as they say in Jared Allen Minnesota, it's gonna
be lit. You know you will. Hear people say occasionally
don't bet on preseason football, big mistake. No, not true.
(01:29):
It's actually easier than capping the regular season. And in
most cases you can read ahead of time the exact
game plan for each team. Who's gonna play, who's not
gonna play. That doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win, don't
get me wrong, but you look for edges as betters,
and frankly, how often in any sporting event will you
ever find Certainly not on the professional level, maybe not
(01:52):
even on the probably not the college of or even
the high school. Ever, we're one side really doesn't care
if they win. How do we know that? Because, look,
we've got plenty of data, and I'm gonna break down
four key reasons why betting on the preseason can be
and how it can be very profitable. And by the way,
make no mistake. Uh. For instance, you've got a game
(02:14):
Thursday night, the Hall of Fame game the Raiders and
Jacksonville tee it up. Two first year coaches, Doug Peterson
not debut coaches in terms of their NFL careers, but
debut and Josh McDaniel first year coaches for their respective teams.
Number one goal, don't get hurt. Okay, bully, I can
promise you that. Specially from the Raiders perspective, I think
(02:35):
you see a little bit more of a spirited effort
out of Jacksonville. We'll get that to that in a minute.
The game opened up Raiders minus three, it's now down
to minus one and a half. Moneies come in on
on Jacksonville. And by the way, and and and In
the years I covered the Lions, which is a solid
decade that well, that's those are just the years that
did the pre and post game show pretty much covered
(02:55):
the Lions from to two thousand nine when I left town. Look,
NFL preseason games are not a waste of time because
if you're a position coach and if you're an offensive
defensive coordinator, it gives you a chance to evaluate position
battles in a live game situation rather than just practices
and drills. And it gives organizations, personnel directors and such
(03:19):
an opportunity to evaluate their draft choices in the progresses
that the progress they make from year one two year two.
So there's something for everybody, and you're gonna be excited
when you wake up Thursday. NFL is back, um in
the exhibition season, as I said, starts Thursday, and in
(03:39):
the Raiders in Jacksonville. What we'll tie it up and
you know, let's just dive right in now as to
what I believe are the four key reasons as two
angles in terms of what do you look for when
you are betting preseason games. The first, first and foremost
are coaches. We have data on this. There are you know,
(04:03):
coaches who are who have been very profitable and active
in the preseason and very uh you know, they play
to win. John Harball comes to mind. Twenty nine and
fifteen against the number your plus thirteen units if you
bet on John Harball games. Baltimore rabits. Pete Carroll always
wants to win in the preseason twenty three and twelve
(04:24):
ub plus ten units. Mike Zimmer's no longer in the league,
but he was the same way, same with Gruden. On
the opposite side of the scale, he got guys like
Mike Rabel the Tennessee UM. He's owed four last year
against the spread. Uh Andy Reid has been well under
five hundred in his career. Bill Belichick, Uh, never really
(04:45):
cares much about the preseason. If you blindly bet Bill
Belichick in preseason games just in the last five years,
your mind, I statan units. So there's coaches who care.
There's coaches. How about Sean McVeigh. Here's a real classy example.
Sean McVeigh, hey coach at Los Angeles Rams, clearly hates
the preseason. He uses August to scout his younger guys
(05:05):
and keep his starters and keep backups healthy. The Rams
were all in three against the spread last year, mcveigh's
only five intended his career. And now they're coming off
a super Bowl victory and they open up what five weeks,
six weeks from Thursday night against Buffalo. Yeah, you really
think Sean McVeigh cares much about the preseason? No? So
(05:26):
there you have it. Coaches very important. How about first
year coaches? Now this is also very significant because not
only do we have a whopping ten first year coaches
for the three season in their first year. Uh and
and yes this can be a little tricky, but generally
(05:49):
first year coaches performed very well and their first August
home game, UM, this really started to take note about
six years ago when first year coaches went six and
one against the spread in their first home game, and
then every year it's been five and two, etcetera. Twenty
three and twelve on the ledger against the spread, and
(06:11):
the last five preseasons combined that that's about. You can
make all the money you want to make if you
hit seven percent of your bets and there it is
laid out for you. In In the last five years, first
year head coaches were a new team their first home
game in the preseason. Why they all want to show
the owner, the GM, the players, the fans. Hey, I'm
(06:33):
the right man for the job. And how about just
a little refresher on who these first year coaches are.
Matt eber Flows in Chicago, Nathaniel Hackett in Denver, Levey
Smith he's in Houston. Now I just mentioned Doug Peterson
and Josh McDaniel. That's a neutral site game, so neither
one of those who con for a home game. Uh,
(06:56):
Mike McDaniel, he's with the Miami Dolphins. Kevin O'Connell, the
new co which of the Minnesota Vikings, Dennis Allen New York,
New Orleans Saints, Brian Dable with the New York Giants,
and of course Todd Bowle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Another key factor is take a look at the schedule,
and what happens last week can often reveal what might
(07:20):
happen next week. What do I mean by that? Teams
who start owing one and they play a team that's
one and all, just keep an eye on that. Typically
the team who started on on one covers about fifty
seven percent of the time if they're playing a team
started one and oh. Now you've got a factor that
also into if you have conflicting information with respect to
(07:44):
maybe that oh and one team is visiting a one
on O team and that one on O team one
on the road. But now the coach, the first year coach,
has a home game and it's his first home game.
You get where I'm going with that. Don't overthink it,
but follow these simple rules coaches who like to win
versus coaches who don't, the coaches who are first year
(08:05):
head coaches. And then, of course, now the schedule. Another
angle to consider that's very important actually is depth. Now
this one is a little bit obvious. Joe Public often
gets worked up about starters and skill position players in
certain teams, certainly during the regular season, but it's the
same in the preseason. See teams that can go two
or three deep, sometimes four deep, and the skill positions,
(08:28):
they're going to have a decided advantage over a club
that has a few stars that will be sitting after
the first or second series. A perfect example is none
other than the Buffalo Bills, who basically, if you look
at the quarterback room, and this is very important, you've
got Josh Allen Case, Keenan, and Matt Barkley. That's gonna
(08:48):
be one of the better quarterback rotations they s August
in the preseason. Don't forget the Bills have not only
been running Sean McDermott's system for the last five years.
And yes they do have a new offensive coordinator and
Ken Dorsey, but he's also been with the Bills two
years ago as the Bills quarterback coach and passing game coordinator,
so there's a real smooth transition there. The Bills were
(09:10):
four and oh against the spread in the preseason in
two and one against the spread last season six and one,
So this is a situation where you've got continuity and
you've got depth. Now on the flip side. The Houston Texans,
they're gonna be breaking in a brand new head coach,
Levy Smith, a brand new offensive coordinator Pet Hamilton's and
(09:31):
a brand new defensive coordinator. Uh and their quarterback room
is Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driscoll with somebody
named Kevin Hogan learning a brand new offense. You can't
really say you like that kind of depth if it
comes to betting the preseason. By the way, the Texans
defense will also be learning a brand new scheme as well.
(09:55):
You want my humble opinion, I think the Texas might
have a rough preseason. So quarterbacks continuity or key NFL
preseason wagers, just like those during the regular season, can
often come down to the last eight minutes, the last
half of the last quarter of a game. So fine
teams that have solid depth of quarterback and or have
(10:17):
some experience or success in the league. When you've got
quarterbacks like the Buffalo Bills that Matt Barkley started a
lot of games, So those kids, Keenum and you know
what Josh Allen can do, not knowing how many snaps
Josh Allen's gonna get in most of the games, but
nonetheless you've got that situation there, the continuity, the quarterbacks,
the depth. When you've got a quarterback room like I
(10:37):
just mentioned in Buffalo, they'll have a tremendous advantage in
the closing moments of a game. Especially Remember they're most
likely gonna be playing a situation where it's a third
or four string defense. And some of those guys great athletes,
Maybe they were great in college. They might be working
at NAP Auto Parts next month. Nothing wrong with that.
Good Christian value is good hard work, honest way to
(10:59):
make a living. Every job you know is there there
there's integrity in every job. But that doesn't mean their
National Football League players. You should know that motivation is
different for every head coach. Not every head coach cares
about winning the preseason. But if you've got the depth, etcetera.
So who do you play on? Maybe in the preseason
in one team, I've actually got my eye on the
(11:21):
Detroit Lions. Now, Dan Campbell did go all and three
against the spread last year in the preseason, and I
think you're gonna get good value on a team this
year in the Lions, who has more depth than most
people realize. And also sometimes you like playing second year
head coaches in the preseason that had a winning record
against us spread during the regular season. The Lions were
(11:41):
only three thirteen in one last year. I believe that
was the record, but they were eleven and six against
the spread. The lines made your money last year. By
the way, the Lions offensive line is non ranked number
ten by Pro Football Focus heading into the season, and
I actually think the Lions have some some good players
and they draft did well, so you can't really go
(12:02):
to sleep on the Lions. You know. Look, there's a
lot of parody in the leagues. I was killing Ardy
and Aaron about an hour ago. Last year I really
started to dive into the handicapping for last year. If
you blindly bet every single NFL dog in the regular
and postseason, you bet a hundred blindly, you'd be up
(12:24):
twenty six units. There's parody in the league. There are
no you know, there are no nineteen two Dolphins going
seventeen and know this year, So something to keep an
eye on. Finally, so as we head into Thursday night,
do I have a best bet on this game? I
will tell you this side. I of like, I haven't
fired on it yet, and shame on me because I
could have got the total of thirty four. I don't
(12:44):
know that I want to chase it's down to thirty
three and a half now. Uh, I would look to
the under. Five of the last six Hall of Fame
games have gone under. Doug Peterson is nine and four.
He's the head coach of the Jacksonville Jacks. He's nine
and four in the under in his last thirteen preseason games.
Don't expect, by the way, don't expect either offensive team
(13:08):
to find any kind of rhythm in in this game
Thursday night. Uh. And so does it feel like a
fourteen to ten game something along those lines. Yeah, I
think you might see one series out of out of
the Trevor Lawrence and you've got a lot of young
bucks fighting for jobs. Defensively for Jacksonville, the Raiders don't
get hurt. I be shocked if any of their starters.
(13:31):
And remember, Josh McDaniel comes from the Bill Belichick tree.
Bill Belichick really doesn't care if he wins preseason games.
I feel you get more of the same with Josh
McDaniels here Thursday Night. As a man, I think you'll
see a bit of a defensive tilt for obvious reasons
teams barely hit now in the preseason, they will only
(13:53):
have had a little over two weeks to get ready
for a game in national TV game, you got travel issues,
all those sorts of things. It just feels like a
low scoring game to me Thursday night between Jacksonville and
UH and the Raiders are there. You have it. The
NFL preseason is upon us. An he likes to joke,
the preseasons of the free season. Laugh all you want, laugh,
(14:13):
clown laugh. I will tell you this, if the books
didn't feel that the players, the betters had an edge
on the book, you know, on the sports books in
the preseason more so than the regular season than why
the limits Solo in a regular NFL season, regular season game,
you can get down three grand in a preseason game,
would be lucky to get down a dime. So there
(14:36):
you have it. Coming up, we're bringing them all Shaw
from the Vegas Stance and Information Network. We're both here
in Vegas, who both live in Vegas. You know, it's
just like I am. They're feeding the Vegas Raiders, you know,
to us like water through a fire hose. Every day.
We'll break it down as to what we think the
Raiders will do this year, and we'll talk about Thursday
Night's game as well. I'm Bredi Frado but Comedy Alive
(14:58):
from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studio. It's the
pregame show you always wanted, So don't go away. You're
listening to straight out of Vegas, the Great Birdie Frido. Folks.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
(15:18):
search f s R to listen live. Hey, what's up everybody?
It's me three time pro bowler Lavarrington and I couldn't
be more excited to announce a new podcast called Up
on Game? What is Up on Game? You asked, along
with my fellow pro bowler t J. Hudshman's OTTA and
Super Bowl Champion. That's right, Plexico Birds. You can only
(15:40):
name a show with that type of talent on it.
Up on Game We're going to be sharing our real
life experiences loaded with teachable moments. Listen to Up on
Game with Me LaVar Arrington, t J. Hudgman's OTTA, and
Plexico Birds on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast
or wherever you get your podcast from all right back
(16:03):
on straight at Vegas the pregame show you always wanted
that Bernie Fradoll comedy Live from Las Vegas, Fox Sports
Radio Studios. Welcome and to gentlemen, he's here in Vegas
with me. He's with the Vegas Stats and Information Network.
Say hello to a mall shall you've heard him here
before them all? How are you, buddy? Hey, I'm well, thanks,
pretty good to be back on with you. Yeah, I
want to dive in. We're gonna get into the Raiders
(16:25):
per say, in a minute, but I'd like to start
out with Thursday's Hall of Fame game. Uh. In the
last ten games, only one has exceeded thirty three and
a half points, and that was back in seventeen. I
feel like we're looking at an under Thursday Night. Your thoughts, Yeah,
I would agree with you, and I'd also tell you
to jump on the line as quick as possible because
(16:47):
by the time we get to kick off that thirty
two and a half right now, and I think it
will come down even more just simply because people will
play this game. I remember you're if at all you
see anybody that's with with the first team would be
one series to max and even that's being optimistic. Likelihood,
probably you're not gonna see any starters um and you know,
(17:08):
there's no continuity for these other players. And let's be
real here, these are teams that are generally just going
through the motions because they do have that extra opportunity
with the preseason. So I just don't think you're gonna
see too much of it. From an offensive standpoint, from
the Raiders and the Jags completely agreed. And as far
as the side, I believe the Lions sort of settle
(17:30):
Raiders minus too. Uh. Jacksonville has a little bit deeper
roster with players competing for a job. I look for
the Raiders to just try to not get hurt. Jacksonville
have some guys fighting for a position. Thoughts on the
side if you have one, Yeah, Bernie, I thought you
brought up a great betting angle for the preseason. And
I like to look at teams that have a little
bit of a quarterback competition or some depth situation where
(17:55):
you look and say, well, we've got two decent players,
but nothing is resolved in terms of who's gonna be
the starter. It tends to be a little bit more
competitive from that side, and I think it's a really
good angle to me, if you're looking at this one,
I would probably take the Jags on the money line
plus one oh five and four go to plus some
point and a half here, um. But it's hard to
really sit there and say overwhelming from one way or
(18:15):
the other. Absolutely talking with them All Shaw of the
Vegas Stats and Information Network, let's dive into the Raiders
them all. I feel like we're really being force fed
the Raiders and Josh McDaniels and the new regime and
the sky's the limit. I'm I can't say I'm sold yet.
What is your knee jerk reaction about this team? Well, first,
(18:37):
let's start with Josh McDaniels. I don't understand how many
coaches have to come through new Eland and realize that
it's not Belichick and Brady. You know, I'll give you
the list, Roma, Romeo Cornell serious failure, bell O'Brien serious failure,
Josh McDaniels failure, I mean, judge failure. How many coaches
need to fail before people start to realize they're not
(18:57):
bringing top already with them. I don't even I didn't
even Mention and Charlie Weiss. Yeah, I mean it's Matt Patricia.
Thank you, I forgot about him. Actually, um, you know, look,
I'm not saying that McDaniels can't coach and he can't
do a better job the second time around. But let's
not get it twisted. I mean, you know, he wasn't
some great coach in his coaching Stutton, Denver. He was
(19:18):
eleven and seventeen. Uh So I would pump the brakes
a little bit. I like the talent. I think the
one thing that I think is really important when you
look at this team, I like the addition bringing in
Chandler Jones. I think Chandler Jones has been criminally underrated
in his career. I think he's been a tremendous player
that just kind of an afterthought in Arizona. But I
(19:41):
think he's a huge difference maker for them. Potentially helps
out Max Crosby quite a bit. But again, even with
that pass Russian proving, how good is that secondary gonna be?
Jonathan Abram not particularly great. I think Trayvon Mooring in
the secondary, I think he's got an opportunity really good.
But I saw some concerns about the back seven for
this team. How effective they will be. It remains to
be It mains to be seen how effective they're gonna
(20:03):
be in there. And look, I know it's on paper,
but this, to me, Bernie, is the most competitive division
I've ever seen, at least on paper. I couldn't agree
with you more. Hold that thought for just a second.
What I do believe the Raider's biggest strength will be
the receivers. I believe their biggest weakness will be their
offensive line. Talk about that for just a second. Yeah,
(20:23):
I would agree with you there. When you look at
this team on the offensive line, lots of concerns, lots
of question marks in terms of what they're gonna be
able to do. Look, Colton Miller is very solid on
the left side of that offensive line, you know what,
But the Studs still some concerns with Brandon Parker Lesser
Cotton on the right side. Um, I just don't know
how effective they're gonna be. Alex Lutherwood was a guy
who was expected to be a starter there on the
(20:44):
right side of the offensive line. Um, you know, he
looks like he's gonna be potentially running with the second team.
So there's definitely concerns there. And the reality in today's
NFL has been the case for a long time. And
I always go back to that oh seven Super Bowl
when we saw the Patriots getting man handled by the
New New York Giants. If you don't have the offensive
line protection, it doesn't matter if you've got Davante Adams,
(21:05):
said Josh Jacobs, Derek Carr, whomever. It's not gonna matter
if your quarterback can't stay upright. And I think it's
it's going to be crucial for this team to be effective.
The offensive line's got to be better than what we
had just be coming into the season. Talking with the
Mall Shaw the Vegas Status and Information Network, he brought
up a good point in Mall, they're in the most
competitive division in football. Who jumps at you? I still
(21:27):
think someone's got to knock off the Chiefs. I liked
the continuity between Andy Reid Patrick Mahomes would go from there.
I think you'll hear from Russell Wilson and we'll see
if this is the year that Herbert breaks out and
the Chargers did pick up Khalil Mack as well. Who
jumps out to you to win the division? You know,
(21:48):
I'll tell you it's a tough call. I'm gonna go
with Kansas City only because I think Mahomes is still
probably the second best player in football, Aaron Aaron Donald
being the number one player in my book. Um, And
even though Tyree kill is gone, I'm not as concerned
about the loss of Hill's completely because I think Mahomes
is the catalyst for that team. And you know, people
(22:09):
forget how effective this guy has been in his career
and what he's been able to do. And you you
mentioned it. The continuity with him and Andy Reid being
together for so long. I think that helps a lot.
They bring in sky More out of Western Michigan. Let's
see affective he could be in terms of deep ball threat.
I'm not as big of a Nicole Hardman fan as
maybe some other people might be, But I still think
Travis Kelsey is the difference maker and Clyde Edwards Hilaire
(22:31):
has been missing an action for the last year plus,
so anything you get out of him could be a
potential bonus. Um. I still think you've got to go
through Kansas City. With that being said, I know a
lot of people like the charges. I'm not high as
high on Khalil Mac as everyone else's din. I always
go back to that question that somebody asked Bill Belichick.
How do you compare Khalil mac to Lawrence Taylor? You
don't if you know anything about football, and um, you know. Look,
(22:53):
they'll be affective with him and Bosa. But here's the problem.
Boss gonna play only twelve of seven team games. It's
almost a guarantee he's gonna be sometime due to injury.
They got a talented team, but I don't like the
unnecessary gambles that the Chargers take. And then I look
at the one team that I think is a real
wild card here, and that's the Denver Broncos. I love
Russell Wilson. I think this guy is unbelievable, doesn't turn
(23:14):
the football over. Now here's an opportunity for guys like
Jerry Judy to prove themselves solid running game, good defense.
But I think Russell Wilson is a difference maker, and
I think he just elevates the program and the culture
when he steps in the building in Denver. Last one
for me, wrapping it up with the Mall Show, the
biggest stats and information network. I'll blurt it out first.
(23:35):
I think the raker, the Raiders. Ceiling this year is
nine and eight. I made my words, but they're gonna
have to prove it. You've got the floor. Yeah, I did. Look, Bernie,
I don't think that's a bad number you're projecting there.
I think that's probably actually right off parhere. I see
them somewhere between seven wins to to tend and he said,
they say, well, you're traveling defense. But the reality is,
we know that about six of these games are gonna
(23:57):
come down to one or two places. Do you execute
success to play in those situations? That's what's going to
be the key. Uh. The schedule to start out is
not particularly easy, but they do have Jacksonville, they do
have Houston. Uh, those are a couple of games you
could definitely add into the wind column. But I look
at this a sc I don't know how you see, Bernie.
Out of sixteen teams that you include the Pittsburgh Steelers,
(24:18):
I think you've got thirteen teams that are viable to
make the postseason. This is one of the most challenging
leagues I've ever seen any conference. But I tend to
agree to you. I think your nine win prediction is
spot on. I would go somewhere you said I had
to make a pick, I would say eight to nine wins,
They're right there, and then do you win the turnover
margin in game or two? That's what it's going to
come down to. Great stuff, fm all. Let's do this
(24:40):
again as we get a month into the season. Absolutely,
thanks so much, Bernie, appreciate the time. Thanks the mal
To Malls show, the Vegas Stats and Information Network. Uh,
pretty open minded about the Raiders. Good analysis. As far
as the depth of the a F cust lots on
Pack Thursday night, we both agree should be a low
scoring game. Remember last year in the Hall of Fame game,
(25:00):
both teams combined for a total of nineteen points, and
Mall brought up a great point. If you like the ender,
you better get on an noown. So they're gonna go south.
It was thirty four a week ago, a couple of
weeks ago, it's nine umber thirty three. I believe probably
gonna go down from there. Coming up, everybody else is
talking about Kyler Murray. I might as well throw in
my two cents as well. But first let's go to
(25:20):
Kevin Fingers with the latest Kevin welcome back, How are you?
Thank you? Bernie, always good to be with you. We'll
start with a Major League Baseball from Saturday. You got
the Rockies snapping the Dodgers three game win streak with
a five to three victory Clayton Kershaw, allowing all three
runs there and taking the loss. Abraham Torre pinch hitting
for the injured Julio Arriguez in the ninth inning, and
he actually drove in the eventual winning run as Seattle
(25:42):
beat Houston five to four. Home runs for Byron Buckston
and Collins Correa helped the Twins defeat the Padres seven
to four. William Contrez went deep twice for the Braves
and a six to two win over Arizona. Josh bell
at three run home run leading Washington over St. Louis
seven to six, Carlins Carrasco picking up his one hundredth
career victory, and a four nothing Mets went over the
Marlins went for the Brewers, Angels and the Yankees, who
(26:03):
got home run number forty two on the season from
Aaron Judge and Golf at the PGA event in Detroit,
Tony Finale tied with Taylor Pendrith for top billing through
three rounds at the Live of It in New Jersey,
Henrick Stintson as a three stroke lead, and at UFC
two seventies seven, Amanda Nunion has defeated Julianna Pana to
regain the bantam weight title. All right, back to straight
out of Vegas. All right, thank you, Kevin, and Kevin
(26:25):
of course be with us until three am Pacific, six
a m Eastern. All right, let's get to Kyler Murray
and for their record. And I don't like it when
people listen selectively. I like Kyler Murray the minute he
stepped onto the field in he almost upset the Lions
week one, drove him down the field that you know,
they came back from a big deficit. The man can play,
(26:47):
and he can operate from the pocket. He can play.
So let's get that out of the way right now.
And uh, you know the he's he's won games and
they weren't doing that before he got there. Okay, at
a quarterback and a coach for after one year, So
let's get that out of the way. But listen, now,
get to the meat of the issue. You know, Henry,
I'm gonna draw a parallel. What are your employers expect
(27:10):
from you now? Henry Ford. You may ever heard of
Henry Ford. He started a car company in Dearborn, Michigan
many years ago. I've actually been to the Henry Ford mansion.
I lived fifteen minutes from Dearborn, Michigan for a better
part of two decades Hender's. Ford once commissioned one of
his executives to prepare a study, and he told the
(27:33):
executive I want this report on my desk tomorrow at
eight am sharp. Sure enough, the executive had it there.
Ford calls him in at eight thirty, holds it up
in the Arran, says is this the best you can do?
And the executive says, well, you know, I'm working on
three projects at once. Give it back to me. I'll
I'll put some more effort into it. Has the report
on Ford's desk The next morning at Eddie and Ford
(27:54):
calls him in again at eight thirty, holds the report
up in the Arran, says it's just the best you
can do. He says, you know, one of my kids
were sick last night. I got distracted. Give it back
to me. I working out some more. He went back,
worked on the report, had it on Henry Ford's desk
the next morning at eight am. Ford calls him again
at eight thirty, holds the report up in the air
and says, is this the best you can do? And
(28:15):
the employee said, that's the best I can do. I
put every ounce of effort I into this, every ounce
of effort I could endo this report maxim my research.
I was up all night. That is it. That's the
best I can do. And Ford says, okay, now I'll
read it. What are your employees expect from you? Kyler
(28:37):
Murray feels disrespected from who they just gave him a
hundred and sixty million reasons to get over it. Somehow,
for some reason, the Kyler Murray contract had legs all
week and it's still does. People talking about it today.
He signed it five day five or six days ago,
and there's been enough twists and turns in his goofy
story to last the whole season. So let's unpack this
(29:01):
just quickly in case you missed it. Kyler Murray signed
his new Sparkling two thirty point five million dollar contract
extension Monday, and everybody was happy, and Kyler Murray was
much richer. Of course, after getting the money he wanted.
All good. Didn't remember now, whenever an NFL contract is
(29:22):
negotiated and signed and consummated, it's then sent to the
league office for approval and certification. Now at that point
becomes public and media guys and people who are intrepid
they have access so they can read the contract and
report on it. That's how this whole thing got out.
Well what got out well? News slowly trickled out that
(29:46):
the Cardinals chose to put a clause in Murray's deal
demanding that he conduct at least four hours per week
of quote independent study for the team's next game. There
were even stipulation about him not watching TV or playing
video games while studying. Studying. Now, this is real stuff
(30:07):
for an adult performing a job that's gonna guarantee him
a hundred and sixty million dollars. So obviously the dialogue
of this nature started to get loud, and they got
put out on Front Street, and then people started to
draw inferences. Did the Cardinals state Murray slacks off in
(30:30):
game prep? What kind of trust level is there for
this to even be part of the contract, And by
the way, Murray agreed to it. But then Carler Murray
got really mad on Thursday, and there wasn't this press
conference was not scheduled. They called one. He slammed, quote
the metaphorical you. That's me and you for doubting his
(30:52):
preparation and maturity. When when do we do that? I
didn't ask. I have no idea what his preparation is.
I just got done saying I think he's been pretty
damn down, Amica. On the field, he stuck it up
against the Rams. He looked like he was trying not
to get hurt. But that's a story for a different day.
But I don't think about his preparational maturity. And I
know he's in the national football he's having success. You know,
(31:13):
how could I call that into question? How would I
possibly know? How would any of us possibly know? The team,
by the way, wanted the clause, They started it, and
then Carla Murray agreed to it. So why are we
the ones that are disrespecting him? Who? What the hell
are we talking about here? Finally, late Thursday, then, to
make matters worse, I think the Cardinals gave in announcing
(31:34):
they stripped the class to Murray's contract and now they're
all hoping to move forward. You know, gee, I'm sure
nothing will fester here you watch. By all the indecisiveness
and all the goofiness, all I did was create a
situation where this will continue to be talked about. Okay,
(31:55):
what can happen next? Either this continues to boil over
even more or I'm not I'm not a gamer. But
if all of a sudden you see Kyler Murray's rankings
globally start to rise on call of duty and the
Cardinals start to lose games in the NFC West and
people get fired, well, then you know what's happening, maybe
(32:16):
sort of, or maybe he started given more. How the
hell do we know? Or then maybe Kyler Murray goes
out and win the m v P and the Arizona
Cardinals win the division. All I know is is you
know there are three types of people in the world,
those who make things happen, those who watch things happen,
and those who wonder what the hell happened. Please feel
(32:38):
free to put me in the third category, because I'm
trying to figure out exactly what the hell happened here.
I just wanted a one thing. If you want to
straighten us out, Arizona, and maybe you don't, maybe you
just shut up for now. Why don't you can. Somebody
please tell us why there's a reason the Arizona Cardinals
(32:59):
wanted that clause in the contract. Why they just just
didn't pull it out of left field, out of whole cloth.
There has to be a reason. There has to have
been one or more trigger events. There has to have
been a pattern something, And I have no idea. I'm
just grabbing its straws here. I just would like to
know one thing. Why did Arizona want that cause in
(33:21):
the contract? First, they didn't put a weight class in
his contract. No, guys, looks like he's in a world
class shape to me. But they put a study hall class.
Why what happened? What happened? Lucy? Wait? You talking about willis?
No one's No one's addressing that, and they don't want
to because it will get even more embarrassing again. And
that's what causes everybody to draw the inferences. And that's
(33:44):
why we've now come full circle. Deshaun Watson got two
hundred thirty million. I got it all guaranteed. Now Kyler
only got only, I say in air quotes, hundred and
sixty million guaranteed. But he did get you to notice
he wasn't gonna play for a penny more than Deshaun Watson.
And there's no reason to believe you won't finish out
the contract forty six million a year, five years. That
(34:05):
extra five out of come in nice and it makes
them king of the hill for now for about sixteen
seconds until the next quarterback exceeds what Kyler Murray got.
Onward and upward, and uh, the Arizona Cardinals don't have
a game this week, so I guess he doesn't have
to study the extra four hours this week. Oh yeah,
they took it out of the contract. And if you
(34:25):
followed all that, you're a better man than me. And
if you think that was weird, let me tell you
about a weird stat that's happening in Major League Baseball.
Is the MLB season continues. That's coming up next. I'm
Bernie Fratto her Company Alive from the Las Vegas Fox
Sports Radio Studios. It's just the pregame show you always wanted,
So don't go away. You're listening to Straight out of Vegas,
(34:50):
one of the best in the business, Bernie Fratto. Right
back on Straight out of Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted. Bernie Fratto Comedy Alive from the Las Vegas
Fox Sports Radio students for go any further. I want
to thank my broadcast team back in Los Angeles, Boll Benson,
Chris Perffett and Kevin Figgures on the updates tonight. They'll
be with me as you will to until three am Pacific,
(35:15):
six am, E. Straw. Before I get to my Major
League Baseball stat, I want to remind everybody my good
buddy Joe Gibbs, our NFL rough stat Scott. They here
you've heard on the last couple of NFL seasons. UH
texted me to remind me that after UH Denver fired
Josh McDaniels as the head coach, he became the the
(35:37):
offensive coordinator for the St. Louis Rams the following season. Yes,
I remember, I'm glad. Joe reminded me. They were two
and fourteen that year. Interestingly enough, that Rams team started
out oh four and oh in the preseason, proceeded to
open up the regular season, lost their first seven games,
(35:59):
and then of course it actually the Dolstar first six
at a bye week five UH, and then they went
on to go too and fourteen. The following year, Josh
McDaniels was gone. Brian Schottenheimer took over in St. Louis,
and all I would say is this is that. Uh look,
maybe Josh McDaniels goes out and wins the Super Bowl.
(36:19):
All I know is I gotta see it to believe it.
Without Bill Belichick by his side, I have questions as
to the results they're going to get. Maybe he doesn't
get them this year, maybe he hits them next year.
I'll be open minded guy, but I'm paid to have opinions,
and I do not have the faith that he is
going to lead him to the Promised Land like some
(36:39):
folks do. Maybe it's a little bit of wishful thinking.
We'll see prove me wrong. I'm hearing that he implemented
a very creative concept in practice that if a player
makes a mistake, maybe he runs the wrong router, misses
a block, you gotta run a lap. Who man that
now you're cooking, you gotta run a lap. I think
(37:02):
we did that in high school. But that's that's pretty clever.
I wonder if they're gonna do that in the games too.
You know. Let's say, uh, let's say Darren Waller, uh
mrs a blocker who runs the wrong route to just
run the lap in the game too. Why not? That'd
be entertaining. All right. I'm not picking on Josh McDaniels.
I'm doing a radio show here and I'm calling him
(37:23):
and as I see him, let's see what the Raiders
do this year. Save the tape. I'll eat my words.
I don't care. I just I'm I think they're gonna
go nine and eight. Prove me wrong. That's all. Proved
me wrong? All right. Major League Baseball season has what
I would consider to be one of the more interesting
idiosyncratic stats this year that there you have a situation
(37:45):
where there are a record tying number of teams that
are a on pace to win a hundred games and
other teams on pace to lose a hundred games. That
doesn't happened four each. The teams that are on pace
to win a hundred games are the Yankees, They're currently
(38:07):
on pace to one hundred and thirteen, the Dodgers they're
currently on pace to one hundred eight, the Houston Astros
uh at the rate the round the one five, and
the New York Mets, which Jason Smith I think will
be happy to hear the around pace to one a
hundred and one on the flip side of the coin,
(38:28):
the Washington Nationals, who just wanted all what three years ago?
They they're on pace to lose a hundred and nine games.
The Oakland Athletics, and here's why this is significant. Uh,
their win total this year I think was seventy seven.
But you talk about going under, if you're holding that ticket,
(38:48):
you're happy. Uh, you know, you're happier in the pig
and slop. Uh. The A's are on pace to lose
a hundred and five games, which means they win fifty
seventy cash a ticket going under twenty games by going
under by twenty games. Cincinnati Reds on pace to lose
a hundred one and the Chicago Cubs, unfortunately back in
(39:09):
Tramilior territory after the glorious season, they're on pace to
lose a hundred games exactly. Speaking of games, Thursday night,
you got a lot, you know, the Hall of Fame game.
Mamal and I both agree. We like the under. The
total is thirty three and a half right now, I
do not. You know, these games are not always easy
(39:31):
to to handicap in the sense of you don't know
what you you've got. But look in a game like this,
it's not judging about who's better, it's you know, both
teams are gonna rest their starters. I think you could
see Trevor Lawrence for a series, maybe one or two
under their new coach, Doug Peterson. I do think Jacksonville
has a deeper roster in terms of more players competing
(39:53):
for a job, where the Raiders are a little bit
more of an older veteran team and they're gonna just
have a heavy rotation of undrafted free agents, while the Jags,
I think they're going to evaluate some of their more
recent draft picks like Claivan Chasing and Levis Nalt and
Andre Cisco. I think the Jags might be a good
bet here getting two points. These teams had tend to
(40:13):
be close, and I don't think you're gonna see a
whole hell of a lot of offensive fireworks that's gonna
do it for straight out of Vegas. I want to
thank my broadcast team again and we will see you
in just a second for Fox Sports Sunday. I'm Fox
Sports Trader to keep it locked right here, I'm Bernie Fratto.
Will take you to three am Pacific, six am Eastern
Fox Sports Radio News
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