September 9, 2022 • 33 mins
Brian Noe chats with betting sharps Jared Smith, Lead Betting Analyst from Pickswise, and Bill Krackomberger from KrackWins.com to preview their hottest picks for this weekend in football! Jared highlights some college matchups he has already put his money on, and Krack talks the biggest matchups of NFL week 1. The guys have you covered for totals, parlays, player props, and much more!
Be sure to check out the new look and features in the Bet MGM app. It’s fast and easy access to the sports you love. Whether it’s Live Betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the Cash Out Feature. New users can use the code COUNTDOWN for a special offer.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports. Everybody, what's up? It's Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. I'm Brian, though he
is Jared Smith, Picks Wise lead betting analysts. So what
we're gonna do today the podcast is to give you
a taste, a taste of the action, a taste of
the games, a taste of what Jared Smith is looking
(00:22):
at as he is making his calculated wagers over here,
and also give you a taste for a new pregame show.
It's Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
It's nine am to noon Eastern Time across all of
our Fox Sports Radio affiliates around the country. The ultimate
pregame tailgate show three hours leading right up to kick off.
(00:45):
So this is a mini version of that to kind
of get the taste buds flowing over here for the games. Jared,
how's everything going? Man? Everything good? Oh Man? It was
a week, so I'll be honest if you were gonna
I mean, and I'm we're upset with more football, but
we had college football games Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
(01:09):
Can we go back to like a normal schedule, please?
Like Thursday's fine. Friday alright, late night pack twelve after dark, right,
Saturday obviously, but Sunday and Monday. You need a break
from college football so we can catch our breath. But
it was an insane week, that's for sure. You know
what's funny, I'll say this real fast year it is
I'm in a relationship that started well before the football season.
(01:30):
Oh no, you know, and this is the first week
of oh man, we got games like every day, it
doesn't stop. Ye. Sad thing is is that, you know,
we do a lot of baseball content over pix Wise,
we do a lot of other sports, like it all
gets pushed us up, like everything is just football focused.
I feel like I'm abandoning my poor baseball fans at
(01:52):
their time of need in September. But listen, when football
is back, that's all we care about, right, that's it. Absolutely,
So let's get into it. One of the first games
you sold the Irish short last week, I feel like,
and now you're on board. Now you're like, I see
the errors of my ways. I'm feeling the Irish minus
twenty and a half. What are your thoughts in this
game against Marshall? You know, It's funny, Brian, because I
(02:14):
think we're gonna be You're gonna have a lot of
moments this year, week to week where you're gonna pull
the tape from one week and I'm gonna be totally
against a certain team, and we'll get to another one
of these moments in a little bit, and then you'll
pull the tape from the current week. And I love
this team. And it's all about the market. It's all
about perception. By low so Hi, I thought Ohio State
last week was in a good position, and clearly Notre
(02:36):
Dames defense said no. I think the injuries helped with
that a little bit, and the Irish did just enough
to hold onto that cover. They're gonna have a much
easier go of it this week. So Marshall comes into
South Bend and listen, take nothing away from Marshall. They've
had a lot of success Doc hool It has been
a great coach over the years. But they were out
their best player in this game. Or Sean Ali took
a leave of absence unexpectedly, their top running back two
(02:57):
weeks ago, didn't play last week against Norfolk State. They
didn't need them. They're in for three yards against the
bad Norfolk State team. They're gonna face a much different
animal this week in a Notre Dame front that clearly
looked like they were up two standards. Marcus Freeman, oh
and two his head coach of Notre Dame. Those two
games on the road, bowl game against top ten opponents,
(03:18):
much different level of competition. This week, it's his first
game in South Bend. He has already talked about how
invigorating that will be for the crowd, for himself, for
the program. I think three touchdowns is my dividing line here.
I got a Notre Dame minus twenty. My guess is
the public money will push this at some point to
three touchdowns at that mark by Saturday. I would stop there,
(03:41):
but if you can get in at twenty and a half,
I think it's a good bet that the Irish flex
their muscle at home and get Marcus Freeman this first win.
I like it now. Georgia State they take on North Carolina.
The last thing we saw from North Carolina, Mac Brown
was basically doing the running Man in the locker room
celebrating a win against Appalachian State when they gave up
(04:03):
forty points in the fourth quarter alone and uh. At
first I was like, that's weird, that's odd, and then
I came around to, hey, enjoy it. This is what
you put in the work force. Enjoy the win, and
we'll see what they do this week. Bet MGM has
U n C as a seven and a half point favorite.
What do you think about U n C. A is
their defense is gonna be a little bit better in
this game. I can't imagine it's gonna be any worse.
(04:25):
So it's a tough matchup this weekend. We'll get it
to that in a second. But to me, unlike the NFL,
I these are not professionals. These are kids. They're eighteen,
the two year old kids. The emotion I think plays
much more of a factor in the handicap week to
week than in the NFL, where it plays a factor.
But again, they're pros. They're in their thirties, they've been
(04:47):
around the block there. It's a different animal when you're
handicapping emotion in college football. This is one of those
classic leftdown spots, so in my opinion that I hope
it's not, but right now it is the leader of
the abouts for the most exciting game of the year,
clearly sixty three to sixty one. I mean, good luck
finding another game this year that scored twenty four combined points.
(05:08):
But now you get u n C for their efforts
going to app State for the first time in boone.
Now they have to go down to I don't even
know where Georgia State plays the game. I don't know
what city it is in Georgia. It's somewhere in there,
maybe right outside of Atlanta, I think. But they have
to now play a team that just ran for two
hundred yards against an SEC opponent. They gash South Carolina
(05:28):
and they would have covered that game against the game
Cocks if it's not for two block punts return for
touchdowns that pushed that to a margin where South Carolina
covered the spread. I thought the Georgia State defense played
very well in that game. I thought their offense again,
five yards per carry, two hundred rushing yards against an
SEC front should be something you take notice now, Drake
may and this UNC offense is legit. That's what scares
(05:51):
me in really leaning into this pick. But I think
it's one of those classic letdown spots where I would
rather take the seven and a half. If you can
get a better ice, great, But over that touchdown margin?
Is that dividing line for me seven and a half
with a team that I think has an edge in
the trenches and I think might have some you know,
hidden value in the motivation if it's a letdown spot
(06:12):
for UNC, because let's be honest, doesn't get much bigger
than what they did, uh, you know, more exciting than
what they did last Saturday against that state. It's always
interesting to me, especially in college football, Jared, where these
coaches have to see the letdown from fifty miles away.
You know, there's a big stage up there in age,
(06:32):
you know, and sometimes they must feel powerless because these
kids eighteen to twenty two years old, sometimes you can't
prevent the letdown. I just I think about that on
a Tuesday, a Wednesday, a Thursday. You can see it
in their eyes. You can forecast what's to be, and
there's only so much you can do about it. I've
always found that fascinating, especially in college football. I mean,
(06:55):
and listen, we're gonna talk a lot about it on
Saturday mornings this year. There is an ebb and flow
to every team season. And if you go back and
you look at the box scores and when they tripped
up when they had their plus games, when they had
their minus games. I don't want to say it's like predictable,
because you know it's unpredictable at sports, but there is
(07:17):
an ebb and flow to the season that is more
predictable than just basing one game. When you look at
the big picture, you can kind of see where the
emotion drained and when they kind of percolated back up.
So yes, there are going to be spots this year
where we buy low and sell high. That, in my opinion,
is the only way to beat the market long term. Hey.
(07:37):
By the way, new users download the bet MGM app
today and use code countdown for a special offer. That's
code countdown in the bet MGM app. I'm Brian, though
he's Jared Smith, picks Wise lead betting analyst. Let's keep
it going here, it's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
We're talking about letdowns. How about Florida. Florida is a
(07:57):
six point favorite at bet MGM hosting Kentucky. They had
a huge win last week against Utah top ten team.
Anthony Richardson was sensational, especially running the football Big stage
only through sixty four passes last year, but he showed
up big time with three rushing touchdowns against the Utes.
How do you feel about Florida facing another big time
(08:18):
quarterback in Will Levis who puts mayonnaise in his coffee?
What are you thinking of this one? With Florida being
a six point favorite. Hold on, I'm gonna go vomit
really fast and then we can get that back to
the handicap um So Mayonnai's aside, I'm it's I'll use
the word vanilla with Will Levis. I mean, if it's
not Tavion Robinson, who was fantastic last week, there wasn't
(08:39):
much else to that Kentucky offense. This was a Kentucky
offense that only average one point nine yards per carry
against a MAC team Miami, Ohio, a MAC team that
allowed four point four yards per carry against mostly MAC
opponents last year. That is concerning to me. I don't
know where Kentucky's running game went last week. It needs
(09:02):
to be a factor this week now when you look
on the other side of the ball, I everyone's gonna
go run of the window and bet Anthony Richardson and
Lena hisman, they're gonna go run to the window and
bett Florida. When the SEC is blah blah blah blah blah. Sure,
that's all well and good, I would hesitate just a
little bit because when you look at what happened in
that game, the narrative of what we are saying about
(09:23):
Florida would be very different today. If one of those
two first and goal scenarios resulted in points for Utah.
The last one I still think Cameron Rising scored on
second down. They didn't even review it. Um. But again,
if one of those plays, all of the money plays,
and I would say in a college football game there's
probably five to ten quote unquote money plays fifty fifty plays.
(09:47):
If you get the successful result, you get points. Unsuccessful
results zero points. I would say Florida won every one
of those coin flip plays on Saturday. That's not going
to be sustainable. We've already seen this and come down
a little bit. I was surprised it didn't get into
the seven range. It came down now to six. I
thought I'd get a four or four and a half
(10:08):
at some point this week. We're not. It looks like
the Gators are gonna keep taking money, and that money
is gonna continue to come in. I this is a
pass for me. I think the narrative says Kentucky if
you're fading Florida after their big win. But I'll be honest,
Anthony Richardson is a wild card, and I think Billy
Napier's offense is ahead of schedule. I think Florida wins
this game. But I think the spreads now got no
(10:29):
point at six where if you're gonna bet it from
an a TS perspective against the number seven makes sense.
It's not there yet. Maybe it'll get there on Saturday
when we're doing the show. Another game we want to
focus on here Jared Colorado and their stinky performance last
week against TCU like someone crack a window. It was awful.
And they're taking on air Force and the total is soaring.
(10:53):
It's soaring as if you're in a plane going straight ahead,
straight up towards this guy. It's at fifty and a
half at bet MGM, what are you thinking about the
total in this Colorado air Force? Tilt? Follow the money? Right? Um?
So I bet this at forty five and I'll show
you guys the ticket. I promised you I would send
it to you. Um I betted at forty five on
(11:14):
Monday to the over, and my thought process was probably
the thought process of everyone else who has clearly bet
this over this week. Um air Force ten point one
yards per play against Northern Island. I know it's Northern Iowa,
but I don't really put Colorado's defense into much more
higher regard than an average, maybe slightly above average FCS team. Now,
(11:37):
air Forces defense also didn't really do that well against
Northern Iowa. So you have Air Forces offense that is
a regimented option attack, very very you know, disciplined. I
think they're gonna convert a ton of second and third
in shorts, which is gonna keep the chains moving and
keep points on the board in a positive direction. The
question is, could Colorado's offense do enough to get us
(11:59):
over this total. I would still bet this, maybe for
like a half a unit at the current price. I
think this tough total was way too low, and I
think Colorado's offense showed me at least enough. J. T.
Shroud was the second of two quarterbacks used in this
game by head coach Carldorel, who said after the game
he had a better rhythm in the second half. My
guess is Shroud starts this game. Brendan lewis the other
(12:21):
option at quarterback for Colorado, more of a running threat,
limited in the passing game. If air Force gets out
to a big lead, j T. Shroud will be the
guy throwing the football. And I think that lends well
to the over as well, because you have a Colorado
defense that is not going to be able to stop
this option attack. I don't see how there's not at
least fifty points in this game now that the total
has reached fifty. Little hesitant, but I still think Swiss
(12:43):
cheese on both ends for both defenses. Okay, so you
have to really strong plays this week, Jared, and for
our our podcast listeners here on Countdown to Kickoff presented
by Ben MGM. You get one. You get one right now,
and make sure you check out our show on set
satur Days where Jared will give you both and maybe
sprinkling like seven more. He might have something for you
(13:06):
on Saturday and you got something cooking in the lab.
But yeah, the The Big Boys Show. The three hour
show is from nine am until noon Eastern time, leading
right up to kickoff, So east coast, West coast, wherever
you are, three hours before that noon eastern kickoff is
when you can hear our show on Fox Sports Radio.
But you're gonna give away one of your very strong
(13:27):
plays this week right now, Jared Smith. So you've got
this Iowa State Iowa game. You talk about stinky performances,
the Hawk Eyes, they don't they don't move the ball
against you. Me and Ryan Burr Singer are our producer here.
Iowa was minus three and a half against the Cyclones.
What do you see in this one? Oh boy? I
think Iowa. Sam, another one of our staff members here
(13:49):
on the show, would be very happy with this pick. Um.
He was not happy with our pick last week when
we faded Iowa, but this week we're on the Hawk Eyes. Um,
all right, So this is I mean, listen, this is
I don't say it's the most important game of Iowa season,
but if you asked a lot of Iowa fans and
Iowa State fans, they would probably tell you this is
the most important game on the schedule. The ssy Hawk Trophy,
the very coveted psy Hawk Trophy. I think a lot
(14:12):
of the factor with me liking Iowa this week is
not based off of the team and based off of
squarely the number. You could have walked into any casino
that had these lines available two weeks ago and you
could have bet Iowa State plus thirteen one week later,
(14:32):
one game later, all of a sudden, it's now three
and a half. Now I get it. It was an ugly,
ugly performance against South Dakota State. Two point two yards
per play, a nineteen percent success right overall on offense.
For Spencer Peatrice, who had the lowest rated game of
his entire career, just a thirteen percent success rate on
dropbacks against zone coverage, he could not find the open
(14:55):
spot in an FCS zone coverage scheme. That is scary.
I will say this, there is some starch to the
South Dakota State team that is not your average FCS team.
In fact, Brad Power is very notable college football um
power raiding Guru has the jack Rabbits rated ahead of
fifty FBS teams. So I don't want to look too
(15:19):
much into one performance for Iowa and move the line
nine and a half points. And you talk about the
embarrassment factor of getting booed off of your home field,
You talk about the offensive line just getting pushed around
by a South Dakota State front. I think that is
something we will see differently this week. And that's why
(15:40):
with all the games that you've mentioned here, Jared, if
you let's just I'll put a number. Say someone says, hey, Jared,
I've got two hundred bucks for this batch of Saturday games.
How would you divvy up the money between Notre Dame,
North Carolina, Air Force, Iowa, the teams that you have
mentioned Just throw two jet it on the Irish and
(16:00):
call it good? Or would you divide it up a
little bit differently two D parlay all five, take it
all home? No um. So I think it's a very
good question. I struggle. It's funny, and this is gonna
sound weird, but making picks is very easy, especially like
looking at data. The hardest thing I do every week
is grading which pick is more important, should be worth
(16:24):
more to your bankroll. I think that's really difficult to do.
I think some of the best financial advisors in the
country struggle with that every week. With allocating portfolios, it
is very different. Why should you put one percent here
and three six? So I don't fall anyone for just
using a flat unit system like I'm gonna put twenty
(16:45):
bucks on five games and there's my hundred bucks or
forty bucks on five games, and there's my two bucks.
But in this case, I would put a little more
starch into Iowa because I think it is a little
bit more of a by low spot where you're getting
a bargain basement price on a team that is being
treated like, I mean, goodness gracious, like they're an FCS
team right now. So I would probably say forty two
(17:08):
fifty bucks on Iowa, and I would take the remaining
one fifty and divvy it up on the other four,
which would be what like thirty I don't know, I'm
bad at math, like thirty five dollars each. So like,
let's go fifty on Iowa and let's go thirty five
ish on the other four. I like it. Maybe add
(17:28):
you know, we'll save a tip for Will Levis with
his mayonnaise in the coffee, you know what I mean.
We'll save a little bit. We'll put thirty coffee. How
about this, The person who gets the most picks wrong
on our show this year has to drink a coffee
with mayonnaise. Like that's a great idea. I love that idea, tremendous,
all right, Jared Smith great stuff Buddy. Countdown to Kickoff
(17:50):
presented by bet MGM. Listen on Fox Sports Radio three
hours before kickoff, so in college three hours before that
noon kickoff. All of our affiliates around the country. Jared
will give you lots more and we're joined by Penn
State All American rich Orn Burger as well. New users
download the bet mgm app today and use code countdown
for a special offer. That's code Countdown in the bed
(18:13):
mgm app, and for Week one, each bet mgm user
gets access to a completely free five dollar bet on
a one game parlay of their choice. Are anybody It's
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. I'm Brian Noe.
Wanna welcome in professional sports better Bill cracken Burger. We
call him crack. We're here to give you a little
(18:34):
bit of taste some of the plays that he has
leading up to our Sunday show, the initial Sunday show
on September eleven, Week one. It's three hours before kickoff,
so ten am until one pm Eastern time wherever you
are in the country, East coast, West coast, just think
three hours before that one pm Eastern kickoff, we're on
(18:56):
the air we're giving you plays, we're giving me information,
We're giving you Shenani gains. So crack. First off, man,
before we get to the games. You just popped in
a cough drop. I get down with cherry flavored cough drops.
What are the cough drops that you take? It's uh holes,
Actually it's a whole sugar free cough drop. They make
these little, tiny ones. Now, they're tiny, little like pellets.
(19:18):
They're the best ones for being on air. You just
put them right in your bad and you just uh
keeps you keeps you hydrated because uh, you know, we've
had some unbelievable temperatures here. I just flew back into
town and it was like one fifteen all week he
heat wave. Everyone warning me I wasn't even in town
that people saying how was it out there? So, uh,
year round, I will put in a cough drop. I
(19:39):
have to see. This blows my mind. Crack before we
get to the game's real fast. They're normally big like
a Werther's you know what I mean. Like, now, are
they tic tac size these cough drops? Yes, they have.
It's exactly right, U tic tac size. It's funny. I
told my wife when when she bought one of these packs,
I said, where'd you get this from? I've never seen
nothing like this in my life, these little for free
(20:00):
mental mental cough drops, uh little pellets, she said, Walmart.
I said, listen, I need you to go back there
and buy all of them that they have. What I said,
I need you to buy all of them because I've
never seen this before. I need these throughout the season.
So she brought me like fifteen of them, and she said.
The person that the check out with looking at her
like she was crazy. So, um, that's it. That's what
I use. That's awesome, man. Okay, if we dive into
(20:21):
a couple of the plays that you have this week,
how about all the hard knocks love for the Detroit Lions.
They kick it off at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.
You're looking at the total here, Crack, You've bet over
forty six and a half. It's now risen to forty
eight and a half at bet MGM, where are you
feeling in this game? You know it's funny. I put
a tweet up the other day and I'll actually read
(20:43):
you the tweet. I really like watching HBO's Hard Knocks. However,
proceed with caution. If you watch it too close, you
will think every team profiled every year is better than
they are and they're all going places. Just remember the
same thing as going on in every other camp too.
So it's kind of like the Hard Knocks. Lean people
(21:05):
probably will overvalue the team that's being profiled this year,
the Lions. However, I kind of like the Lions. I
like the lines that you know, watching that show. By
the way, I don't really get a chance to watch
too much TV. This was the first year that I've
ever actually you know, followed all every episode of Hard Knocks.
Fantastic job they did over there, And um, this team,
(21:26):
I think this home. They'll be home the first week.
I think they may come out a little bit stronger.
And I know one thing, the fan base will be
going crazy over there. Uh And and speaking of fan base,
is usually Philadelphia probably the toughest place to play in
this country, but Detroit fan base also very loyal. I
think they're gonna come out and actually, uh give Philly
(21:48):
a little bit of a probably a little bit of
a hard time. I don't have a play on the side. Uh,
it's a steady line at four and a half. It's
opened up four. But I do like the total here.
Now I played over forty six and a half and
it's forty eight and a half now pretty solid. I
don't recommend, oh, I really don't like anyone going over
(22:09):
a bad line, So I wouldn't recommend going over the
forty eight and a half less it comes back down. Okay,
all right, yeah, interesting right there. I like what you're
thinking though with I don't expect a whole lot from
Detroit's rush defense, and that's not a great matchup against
Phillies rushing offense. So I could see the over. But
I like what you're saying as far as getting the
right number with that. Uh with that game? How about
(22:31):
the Sunday night you know, watching Thursday Night. You've got
Michael Jordan's previewing Tom Brady on Sunday Night Football. You've
got a rematch of last year's Week one game, Tampa
going to Dallas this year. You're also looking at the
total right now at bet MGM, it's fifty and a half.
Where do you think in here? Crack? Yeah, same thing here.
(22:53):
I I bet under fifty two. I see this game
coming back a little bit though. I listen, it's the
last game of the night. Fans love to uh, I
should say fans, fans and gamblers. They love to chase
at the end of the night. And I, you know
tendencies of the public is the bet favorite and over.
I think they're looking forward to this game. I think
(23:13):
the over may have some more action. I think they
actually it actually may come back across that fifty one.
And that's another thing too. There is key numbers in
in football, and you know on the sides, the three
and the seven are key numbers. On the totals, there
are some key numbers, forty three, even the fifty one.
You know games are four fourteen, So I don't ever,
(23:36):
I always want to make sure I go over the
best number. And right now, standing at fifty and a
half solid everywhere here in town, in Las Vegas, and
uh just everywhere across the country. UH may come back.
I I think they're gonna start out a little bit
slow here these two teams. I usually like to jump
on first half totals. Also in these situations, it's pretty
(23:57):
solid at twenty four and a half bet MGM four.
I'd rather go under like they're at bet bet MGM.
I think that's a good under laying a dollar five
on the under um rather than going under. So they
have a pretty good number here. I may jump on that,
I haven't yet. I think the under for the game, though,
is a pretty solid ben if it goes up the
(24:18):
fifty one, I have no problem with rebetting that or
recommending people to rebet that. Uh, well, we'll see. This
is all eyes are gonna be on Tom here and
and of course going to be on Dallas. This is
a This is a really great job by the schedule
makers to come right out with Tampa Bay Dallas. Uh
first game of the season, so so first first prime
(24:40):
time game of of Sunday. Anyway, I do love One
of the side stories is uh Dak Prescott mentioned on
the injury report. It's got a little bit of a
limp because his Jordan's were a little bit too tight, right.
I think he's wearing Jordan cleats and he switched over
to something else and it caused a little bit of
a hitch in his giddea up. It's any big story,
(25:01):
but anybody who wears Jordan's, you know how that can go.
And so that's what led to Dak being mentioned on
the injury repoard is his shoes a little bit too
tight over the unbelievable. I mean it's almost like like
Wilder Fury. When Wilder said he lost the fight, he
came out with forty pounds of you know, equipment on
top of them coming out of the ring. By the way,
another sport I love. I love boxing, so uh it's
(25:24):
it's I just hope that that's not gonna be the
excuse if they lose. Yeah, right, yeah, we'll see how
that goes. Okay, another game you've got circled here, crack Niners,
Trey Lance taking over for Jimmy g at least for
week one. We'll see how low along that last. With
that situation over there, it gets justin Fields and his
Sam Donald Jets like supporting cast over there, you're looking
(25:48):
at the first half line. It's twenty and a half
at bet MGM, what do you think in this one? Yeah,
it did not bet. It didn't bet it yet. Uh,
twenty and a half good number. There's a lot of
twenties out there, so it's twenty and a half good
number to go under their um. Not going to be
as strong probably as my other two plays. But I
am looking at that listen. I'm kind of down on
the Bears this season. I bet under their season wins.
(26:09):
Literally back in May, I went under seven and a
half minus forty on their on their season wins. I
think this is like two different classes of ball clubs here.
But yet this is one of those things where these
home team opening day dogs that you have to watch.
I'll tell you right now. Uh ten road favorites. I
don't remember a week one with so many road favorites
(26:31):
in my life. So, uh, this is another one of
those situations. These these home dogs do tend to do
pretty well against the spread, and uh, I'm interested too.
I'm looking forward to watching this one. We're gonna following
it along the the ticker here because I want to
see what they come out. I want to see what
happens here with with Trey, I want to see what
(26:53):
comes what happens with Chicago. I kinda uh, like I said,
I'm down on them, but the first week you really
have to attention to see what goes on with these
home dogs, and you know something else, just so people
know now, Uh, I'd rather talk about this now, even
though it's not weak. Two, let's warn the viewers about
overreaction to week one. Spread Wise, don't take this first
(27:15):
week too serious. You know, sometimes the team needs a
game under their belt to adjust to readjust so I
like betting the overreaction against the overreaction week two. So
this is a real important week to watch, So I
don't forget to Anything can happen any given Sunday. Just
you know, look, look at the last few years. What's happened.
(27:35):
How many double digit favorites I've lost? Out right Jacksonville.
I think it was Jackie Jacksonville beating Buffalo last year
out right nine to six. Literally the worst team versus
the best team. Any given Sunday, anything can happen. How
about you mentioned all these uh home underdogs, ten of them?
Is there any one of the ten home underdogs that
you like the most? Boy? Um, I tell you I
(27:59):
would have to look at anything seven points or more
and that almost falls in that category there, San Fran
Uh it probably will. You know, on Sunday there's a
lot of you know, people love to bet last minute.
By the way, go to any sports book in the world.
Uh literally they're lined up uh ten minutes before kickoff.
And don't worry. Every casino in this town and in
(28:21):
the United States that has sports betting, someone will be
shut out because they waited too long. So I would
tend to see that that game may pop back up.
I bet ugly teams too. By the way, my my
betting is not pretty. I'm looking to listen. I make
a live in sports betting, So this is the puts
food on the table, takes care of my family, takes
care of my friends. I'm betting the ugly teams. I'm
(28:43):
betting the teams like the Jets, the Bears, Houston. I mean,
I'm betting some ugly, ugly teams. So that that's just
what I do. And it's because I can, you know,
find those extra value betting against the public. Because the
bookmaker has to overmove lines. They have so much of aolume,
even if it's fifty bucks hundred bucks at a time
over the life of volume, they have to move because
(29:05):
they don't want that big of a side. They don't
you know, of course, every sports book wants a decision
on either either way, but they don't want like a
seven figure decisions, so they have to overmove the line.
And that's one guys like me coming and jump up
and grab that little extra half about half a point.
I like it. He's crack professional sports better I'm Brian. No,
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Hey place
(29:28):
a one game parlay with at least four legs on
any pro football game at bet mgm. If all legs
hit except for one, you'll get your steak back in
free bets up to twenty five dollars. A little bit
of insurance right there. Very nice and also new bet
MGM users use code countdown for a special offer. Okay,
(29:48):
I've heard through my trusted sources that you have about
ninety prop bets on Kirk Cousins this Sunday and one
that I'm gonna look at here his passing yardage against
the Packers. It has climbed all the way up at
bet mgm to two seventy four and a half for
Kirk Cousins. What do you think in this one? Crack? Listen,
(30:09):
I went over to fifty four and a half. It's
twenty more yards and uh, it just sounds like, first
of all, I don't like to go over. I'm an
under guy. You know, historically under is the way to
go on props. There's so many different factors. That one.
The public loves to bet over and everything. Like I said,
and it's fun to go on with your buddies and
root for a team to score. You don't want to
(30:30):
go in there and just be hum drum and you know,
root against the person or root route for someone to
get hurt. So everyone, uh you know, bets over primarily
this one. I I will say, I I bet over
on his past attempts. Uh literally the yards. So I
don't particularly like that number it went up. But I
(30:50):
see this being a really good game for cousins. I'm
I'm all pro cousins this game, and I think will
come out there, and I think this game is a
big game for him. And don't be surprised that green
Bed doesn't come out starting. Listen, all these teams, these
high profile teams, has so much great expectations. Don't be
surprised to see them come out a little bit cold.
(31:11):
But I look at this bet mgm app like like
I told you all fair before, I cannot believe how
many props they have. This is sports betting viagra. This
is unbelievable. Saying it was Christmas morning, It's unbelievable. I
can't believe all the props they have available there. So
I'll just let you know there's gonna be a lot
of low hanging fruit. Okay, so last one for you
(31:35):
crack all the games that you've mentioned. If I say
to you, hey man, I've got two hundred dollars for
week one, how would you um suggest that I divide
that money up with a couple of bets as you
sit there right now, Okay, now the two bucks, you
want to divide that up? Though you don't want all
your eggs in one basket, I would. I would say,
maybe pick like four games and bet like fifty bucks
(31:58):
each on on those games. Uh. I'm not one that
that wants to bet the entire bank roll. But listen,
where I grew up on the East Coast, it was
a rite of passage to gamble. I know that everything
you have in your pocket is getting bet. That's the
way it works. There's no bank roll management, there's no systems.
Everything goes, everything you have goes. And uh so, but
I would recommend definitely breaking it up the fifty dollar
(32:18):
bets and uh you know, having some little bit diversity
and you know, just try to have fun with it. Don't.
Don't just try to chase and and bet at all.
I know what happens with the with the two bucks
when you lose it though, Tampa Dallas, the last game
and the night you're betting that you're trying to get even.
Just let me get even, God and I'll get out
of here. So bank roll management, though, try to do it.
I know it's hard for a lot of you guys. Yeah,
(32:40):
it's essential. I have to do it, no doubt about that.
All right, crack, We're gonna be joined by Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, on Sunday First Show September eleven,
leading up to the week one Sunday games. So just
think three hours before a kickoff, all of our listeners
on any Fox Sports radio affiliate ten am to one
(33:00):
pm Eastern time. If you're on the West coast, Okay,
there's seven am two ten am Eastern time. But three
hours right before that early kickoff time, we'll get you
all set for all the game's crack. You'll have copious notes.
You might have fifty more prop bets on Kirk Cousins
by that time. Who knows, right, I look forward to
my man, I'm stoked, I am too, absolutely all right, everybody.
(33:23):
Thanks for joining the pod and check us out Fox
Sports Radios. Count Down to Kickoff, presented by bed MGM.
Three hours before kickoff, Ultimate Tailgate Party. We'll catch you then,
You're listening to Fox Sports. Everybody, what's up? It's Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. I'm Brian, though he
is Jared Smith, Picks Wise lead betting analysts. So what
we're gonna do today the podcast is to give you
a taste, a taste of the action, a taste of
the games, a taste of what Jared Smith is looking
(00:22):
at as he is making his calculated wagers over here,
and also give you a taste for a new pregame show.
It's Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
It's nine am to noon Eastern Time across all of
our Fox Sports Radio affiliates around the country. The ultimate
pregame tailgate show three hours leading right up to kick off.
(00:45):
So this is a mini version of that to kind
of get the taste buds flowing over here for the games. Jared,
how's everything going? Man? Everything good? Oh Man? It was
a week, so I'll be honest if you were gonna
I mean, and I'm we're upset with more football, but
we had college football games Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
(01:09):
Can we go back to like a normal schedule, please?
Like Thursday's fine. Friday alright, late night pack twelve after dark, right,
Saturday obviously, but Sunday and Monday. You need a break
from college football so we can catch our breath. But
it was an insane week, that's for sure. You know
what's funny, I'll say this real fast year it is
I'm in a relationship that started well before the football season.
(01:30):
Oh no, you know, and this is the first week
of oh man, we got games like every day, it
doesn't stop. Ye. Sad thing is is that, you know,
we do a lot of baseball content over pix Wise,
we do a lot of other sports, like it all
gets pushed us up, like everything is just football focused.
I feel like I'm abandoning my poor baseball fans at
(01:52):
their time of need in September. But listen, when football
is back, that's all we care about, right, that's it. Absolutely,
So let's get into it. One of the first games
you sold the Irish short last week, I feel like,
and now you're on board. Now you're like, I see
the errors of my ways. I'm feeling the Irish minus
twenty and a half. What are your thoughts in this
game against Marshall? You know, It's funny, Brian, because I
(02:14):
think we're gonna be You're gonna have a lot of
moments this year, week to week where you're gonna pull
the tape from one week and I'm gonna be totally
against a certain team, and we'll get to another one
of these moments in a little bit, and then you'll
pull the tape from the current week. And I love
this team. And it's all about the market. It's all
about perception. By low so Hi, I thought Ohio State
last week was in a good position, and clearly Notre
(02:36):
Dames defense said no. I think the injuries helped with
that a little bit, and the Irish did just enough
to hold onto that cover. They're gonna have a much
easier go of it this week. So Marshall comes into
South Bend and listen, take nothing away from Marshall. They've
had a lot of success Doc hool It has been
a great coach over the years. But they were out
their best player in this game. Or Sean Ali took
a leave of absence unexpectedly, their top running back two
(02:57):
weeks ago, didn't play last week against Norfolk State. They
didn't need them. They're in for three yards against the
bad Norfolk State team. They're gonna face a much different
animal this week in a Notre Dame front that clearly
looked like they were up two standards. Marcus Freeman, oh
and two his head coach of Notre Dame. Those two
games on the road, bowl game against top ten opponents,
(03:18):
much different level of competition. This week, it's his first
game in South Bend. He has already talked about how
invigorating that will be for the crowd, for himself, for
the program. I think three touchdowns is my dividing line here.
I got a Notre Dame minus twenty. My guess is
the public money will push this at some point to
three touchdowns at that mark by Saturday. I would stop there,
(03:41):
but if you can get in at twenty and a half,
I think it's a good bet that the Irish flex
their muscle at home and get Marcus Freeman this first win.
I like it now. Georgia State they take on North Carolina.
The last thing we saw from North Carolina, Mac Brown
was basically doing the running Man in the locker room
celebrating a win against Appalachian State when they gave up
(04:03):
forty points in the fourth quarter alone and uh. At
first I was like, that's weird, that's odd, and then
I came around to, hey, enjoy it. This is what
you put in the work force. Enjoy the win, and
we'll see what they do this week. Bet MGM has
U n C as a seven and a half point favorite.
What do you think about U n C. A is
their defense is gonna be a little bit better in
this game. I can't imagine it's gonna be any worse.
(04:25):
So it's a tough matchup this weekend. We'll get it
to that in a second. But to me, unlike the NFL,
I these are not professionals. These are kids. They're eighteen,
the two year old kids. The emotion I think plays
much more of a factor in the handicap week to
week than in the NFL, where it plays a factor.
But again, they're pros. They're in their thirties, they've been
(04:47):
around the block there. It's a different animal when you're
handicapping emotion in college football. This is one of those
classic leftdown spots, so in my opinion that I hope
it's not, but right now it is the leader of
the abouts for the most exciting game of the year,
clearly sixty three to sixty one. I mean, good luck
finding another game this year that scored twenty four combined points.
(05:08):
But now you get u n C for their efforts
going to app State for the first time in boone.
Now they have to go down to I don't even
know where Georgia State plays the game. I don't know
what city it is in Georgia. It's somewhere in there,
maybe right outside of Atlanta, I think. But they have
to now play a team that just ran for two
hundred yards against an SEC opponent. They gash South Carolina
(05:28):
and they would have covered that game against the game
Cocks if it's not for two block punts return for
touchdowns that pushed that to a margin where South Carolina
covered the spread. I thought the Georgia State defense played
very well in that game. I thought their offense again,
five yards per carry, two hundred rushing yards against an
SEC front should be something you take notice now, Drake
may and this UNC offense is legit. That's what scares
(05:51):
me in really leaning into this pick. But I think
it's one of those classic letdown spots where I would
rather take the seven and a half. If you can
get a better ice, great, But over that touchdown margin?
Is that dividing line for me seven and a half
with a team that I think has an edge in
the trenches and I think might have some you know,
hidden value in the motivation if it's a letdown spot
(06:12):
for UNC, because let's be honest, doesn't get much bigger
than what they did, uh, you know, more exciting than
what they did last Saturday against that state. It's always
interesting to me, especially in college football, Jared, where these
coaches have to see the letdown from fifty miles away.
You know, there's a big stage up there in age,
(06:32):
you know, and sometimes they must feel powerless because these
kids eighteen to twenty two years old, sometimes you can't
prevent the letdown. I just I think about that on
a Tuesday, a Wednesday, a Thursday. You can see it
in their eyes. You can forecast what's to be, and
there's only so much you can do about it. I've
always found that fascinating, especially in college football. I mean,
(06:55):
and listen, we're gonna talk a lot about it on
Saturday mornings this year. There is an ebb and flow
to every team season. And if you go back and
you look at the box scores and when they tripped
up when they had their plus games, when they had
their minus games. I don't want to say it's like predictable,
because you know it's unpredictable at sports, but there is
(07:17):
an ebb and flow to the season that is more
predictable than just basing one game. When you look at
the big picture, you can kind of see where the
emotion drained and when they kind of percolated back up.
So yes, there are going to be spots this year
where we buy low and sell high. That, in my opinion,
is the only way to beat the market long term. Hey.
(07:37):
By the way, new users download the bet MGM app
today and use code countdown for a special offer. That's
code countdown in the bet MGM app. I'm Brian, though
he's Jared Smith, picks Wise lead betting analyst. Let's keep
it going here, it's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
We're talking about letdowns. How about Florida. Florida is a
(07:57):
six point favorite at bet MGM hosting Kentucky. They had
a huge win last week against Utah top ten team.
Anthony Richardson was sensational, especially running the football Big stage
only through sixty four passes last year, but he showed
up big time with three rushing touchdowns against the Utes.
How do you feel about Florida facing another big time
(08:18):
quarterback in Will Levis who puts mayonnaise in his coffee?
What are you thinking of this one? With Florida being
a six point favorite. Hold on, I'm gonna go vomit
really fast and then we can get that back to
the handicap um So Mayonnai's aside, I'm it's I'll use
the word vanilla with Will Levis. I mean, if it's
not Tavion Robinson, who was fantastic last week, there wasn't
(08:39):
much else to that Kentucky offense. This was a Kentucky
offense that only average one point nine yards per carry
against a MAC team Miami, Ohio, a MAC team that
allowed four point four yards per carry against mostly MAC
opponents last year. That is concerning to me. I don't
know where Kentucky's running game went last week. It needs
(09:02):
to be a factor this week now when you look
on the other side of the ball, I everyone's gonna
go run of the window and bet Anthony Richardson and
Lena hisman, they're gonna go run to the window and
bett Florida. When the SEC is blah blah blah blah blah. Sure,
that's all well and good, I would hesitate just a
little bit because when you look at what happened in
that game, the narrative of what we are saying about
(09:23):
Florida would be very different today. If one of those
two first and goal scenarios resulted in points for Utah.
The last one I still think Cameron Rising scored on
second down. They didn't even review it. Um. But again,
if one of those plays, all of the money plays,
and I would say in a college football game there's
probably five to ten quote unquote money plays fifty fifty plays.
(09:47):
If you get the successful result, you get points. Unsuccessful
results zero points. I would say Florida won every one
of those coin flip plays on Saturday. That's not going
to be sustainable. We've already seen this and come down
a little bit. I was surprised it didn't get into
the seven range. It came down now to six. I
thought I'd get a four or four and a half
(10:08):
at some point this week. We're not. It looks like
the Gators are gonna keep taking money, and that money
is gonna continue to come in. I this is a
pass for me. I think the narrative says Kentucky if
you're fading Florida after their big win. But I'll be honest,
Anthony Richardson is a wild card, and I think Billy
Napier's offense is ahead of schedule. I think Florida wins
this game. But I think the spreads now got no
(10:29):
point at six where if you're gonna bet it from
an a TS perspective against the number seven makes sense.
It's not there yet. Maybe it'll get there on Saturday
when we're doing the show. Another game we want to
focus on here Jared Colorado and their stinky performance last
week against TCU like someone crack a window. It was awful.
And they're taking on air Force and the total is soaring.
(10:53):
It's soaring as if you're in a plane going straight ahead,
straight up towards this guy. It's at fifty and a
half at bet MGM, what are you thinking about the
total in this Colorado air Force? Tilt? Follow the money? Right? Um?
So I bet this at forty five and I'll show
you guys the ticket. I promised you I would send
it to you. Um I betted at forty five on
(11:14):
Monday to the over, and my thought process was probably
the thought process of everyone else who has clearly bet
this over this week. Um air Force ten point one
yards per play against Northern Island. I know it's Northern Iowa,
but I don't really put Colorado's defense into much more
higher regard than an average, maybe slightly above average FCS team. Now,
(11:37):
air Forces defense also didn't really do that well against
Northern Iowa. So you have Air Forces offense that is
a regimented option attack, very very you know, disciplined. I
think they're gonna convert a ton of second and third
in shorts, which is gonna keep the chains moving and
keep points on the board in a positive direction. The
question is, could Colorado's offense do enough to get us
(11:59):
over this total. I would still bet this, maybe for
like a half a unit at the current price. I
think this tough total was way too low, and I
think Colorado's offense showed me at least enough. J. T.
Shroud was the second of two quarterbacks used in this
game by head coach Carldorel, who said after the game
he had a better rhythm in the second half. My
guess is Shroud starts this game. Brendan lewis the other
(12:21):
option at quarterback for Colorado, more of a running threat,
limited in the passing game. If air Force gets out
to a big lead, j T. Shroud will be the
guy throwing the football. And I think that lends well
to the over as well, because you have a Colorado
defense that is not going to be able to stop
this option attack. I don't see how there's not at
least fifty points in this game now that the total
has reached fifty. Little hesitant, but I still think Swiss
(12:43):
cheese on both ends for both defenses. Okay, so you
have to really strong plays this week, Jared, and for
our our podcast listeners here on Countdown to Kickoff presented
by Ben MGM. You get one. You get one right now,
and make sure you check out our show on set
satur Days where Jared will give you both and maybe
sprinkling like seven more. He might have something for you
(13:06):
on Saturday and you got something cooking in the lab.
But yeah, the The Big Boys Show. The three hour
show is from nine am until noon Eastern time, leading
right up to kickoff, So east coast, West coast, wherever
you are, three hours before that noon eastern kickoff is
when you can hear our show on Fox Sports Radio.
But you're gonna give away one of your very strong
(13:27):
plays this week right now, Jared Smith. So you've got
this Iowa State Iowa game. You talk about stinky performances,
the Hawk Eyes, they don't they don't move the ball
against you. Me and Ryan Burr Singer are our producer here.
Iowa was minus three and a half against the Cyclones.
What do you see in this one? Oh boy? I
think Iowa. Sam, another one of our staff members here
(13:49):
on the show, would be very happy with this pick. Um.
He was not happy with our pick last week when
we faded Iowa, but this week we're on the Hawk Eyes. Um,
all right, So this is I mean, listen, this is
I don't say it's the most important game of Iowa season,
but if you asked a lot of Iowa fans and
Iowa State fans, they would probably tell you this is
the most important game on the schedule. The ssy Hawk Trophy,
the very coveted psy Hawk Trophy. I think a lot
(14:12):
of the factor with me liking Iowa this week is
not based off of the team and based off of
squarely the number. You could have walked into any casino
that had these lines available two weeks ago and you
could have bet Iowa State plus thirteen one week later,
(14:32):
one game later, all of a sudden, it's now three
and a half. Now I get it. It was an ugly,
ugly performance against South Dakota State. Two point two yards
per play, a nineteen percent success right overall on offense.
For Spencer Peatrice, who had the lowest rated game of
his entire career, just a thirteen percent success rate on
dropbacks against zone coverage, he could not find the open
(14:55):
spot in an FCS zone coverage scheme. That is scary.
I will say this, there is some starch to the
South Dakota State team that is not your average FCS team.
In fact, Brad Power is very notable college football um
power raiding Guru has the jack Rabbits rated ahead of
fifty FBS teams. So I don't want to look too
(15:19):
much into one performance for Iowa and move the line
nine and a half points. And you talk about the
embarrassment factor of getting booed off of your home field,
You talk about the offensive line just getting pushed around
by a South Dakota State front. I think that is
something we will see differently this week. And that's why
(15:40):
with all the games that you've mentioned here, Jared, if
you let's just I'll put a number. Say someone says, hey, Jared,
I've got two hundred bucks for this batch of Saturday games.
How would you divvy up the money between Notre Dame,
North Carolina, Air Force, Iowa, the teams that you have
mentioned Just throw two jet it on the Irish and
(16:00):
call it good? Or would you divide it up a
little bit differently two D parlay all five, take it
all home? No um. So I think it's a very
good question. I struggle. It's funny, and this is gonna
sound weird, but making picks is very easy, especially like
looking at data. The hardest thing I do every week
is grading which pick is more important, should be worth
(16:24):
more to your bankroll. I think that's really difficult to do.
I think some of the best financial advisors in the
country struggle with that every week. With allocating portfolios, it
is very different. Why should you put one percent here
and three six? So I don't fall anyone for just
using a flat unit system like I'm gonna put twenty
(16:45):
bucks on five games and there's my hundred bucks or
forty bucks on five games, and there's my two bucks.
But in this case, I would put a little more
starch into Iowa because I think it is a little
bit more of a by low spot where you're getting
a bargain basement price on a team that is being
treated like, I mean, goodness gracious, like they're an FCS
team right now. So I would probably say forty two
(17:08):
fifty bucks on Iowa, and I would take the remaining
one fifty and divvy it up on the other four,
which would be what like thirty I don't know, I'm
bad at math, like thirty five dollars each. So like,
let's go fifty on Iowa and let's go thirty five
ish on the other four. I like it. Maybe add
(17:28):
you know, we'll save a tip for Will Levis with
his mayonnaise in the coffee, you know what I mean.
We'll save a little bit. We'll put thirty coffee. How
about this, The person who gets the most picks wrong
on our show this year has to drink a coffee
with mayonnaise. Like that's a great idea. I love that idea, tremendous,
all right, Jared Smith great stuff Buddy. Countdown to Kickoff
(17:50):
presented by bet MGM. Listen on Fox Sports Radio three
hours before kickoff, so in college three hours before that
noon kickoff. All of our affiliates around the country. Jared
will give you lots more and we're joined by Penn
State All American rich Orn Burger as well. New users
download the bet mgm app today and use code countdown
for a special offer. That's code Countdown in the bed
(18:13):
mgm app, and for Week one, each bet mgm user
gets access to a completely free five dollar bet on
a one game parlay of their choice. Are anybody It's
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. I'm Brian Noe.
Wanna welcome in professional sports better Bill cracken Burger. We
call him crack. We're here to give you a little
(18:34):
bit of taste some of the plays that he has
leading up to our Sunday show, the initial Sunday show
on September eleven, Week one. It's three hours before kickoff,
so ten am until one pm Eastern time wherever you
are in the country, East coast, West coast, just think
three hours before that one pm Eastern kickoff, we're on
(18:56):
the air we're giving you plays, we're giving me information,
We're giving you Shenani gains. So crack. First off, man,
before we get to the games. You just popped in
a cough drop. I get down with cherry flavored cough drops.
What are the cough drops that you take? It's uh holes,
Actually it's a whole sugar free cough drop. They make
these little, tiny ones. Now, they're tiny, little like pellets.
(19:18):
They're the best ones for being on air. You just
put them right in your bad and you just uh
keeps you keeps you hydrated because uh, you know, we've
had some unbelievable temperatures here. I just flew back into
town and it was like one fifteen all week he
heat wave. Everyone warning me I wasn't even in town
that people saying how was it out there? So, uh,
year round, I will put in a cough drop. I
(19:39):
have to see. This blows my mind. Crack before we
get to the game's real fast. They're normally big like
a Werther's you know what I mean. Like, now, are
they tic tac size these cough drops? Yes, they have.
It's exactly right, U tic tac size. It's funny. I
told my wife when when she bought one of these packs,
I said, where'd you get this from? I've never seen
nothing like this in my life, these little for free
(20:00):
mental mental cough drops, uh little pellets, she said, Walmart.
I said, listen, I need you to go back there
and buy all of them that they have. What I said,
I need you to buy all of them because I've
never seen this before. I need these throughout the season.
So she brought me like fifteen of them, and she said.
The person that the check out with looking at her
like she was crazy. So, um, that's it. That's what
I use. That's awesome, man. Okay, if we dive into
(20:21):
a couple of the plays that you have this week,
how about all the hard knocks love for the Detroit Lions.
They kick it off at home against the Philadelphia Eagles.
You're looking at the total here, Crack, You've bet over
forty six and a half. It's now risen to forty
eight and a half at bet MGM, where are you
feeling in this game? You know it's funny. I put
a tweet up the other day and I'll actually read
(20:43):
you the tweet. I really like watching HBO's Hard Knocks. However,
proceed with caution. If you watch it too close, you
will think every team profiled every year is better than
they are and they're all going places. Just remember the
same thing as going on in every other camp too.
So it's kind of like the Hard Knocks. Lean people
(21:05):
probably will overvalue the team that's being profiled this year,
the Lions. However, I kind of like the Lions. I
like the lines that you know, watching that show. By
the way, I don't really get a chance to watch
too much TV. This was the first year that I've
ever actually you know, followed all every episode of Hard Knocks.
Fantastic job they did over there, And um, this team,
(21:26):
I think this home. They'll be home the first week.
I think they may come out a little bit stronger.
And I know one thing, the fan base will be
going crazy over there. Uh And and speaking of fan base,
is usually Philadelphia probably the toughest place to play in
this country, but Detroit fan base also very loyal. I
think they're gonna come out and actually, uh give Philly
(21:48):
a little bit of a probably a little bit of
a hard time. I don't have a play on the side. Uh,
it's a steady line at four and a half. It's
opened up four. But I do like the total here.
Now I played over forty six and a half and
it's forty eight and a half now pretty solid. I
don't recommend, oh, I really don't like anyone going over
(22:09):
a bad line, So I wouldn't recommend going over the
forty eight and a half less it comes back down. Okay,
all right, yeah, interesting right there. I like what you're
thinking though with I don't expect a whole lot from
Detroit's rush defense, and that's not a great matchup against
Phillies rushing offense. So I could see the over. But
I like what you're saying as far as getting the
right number with that. Uh with that game? How about
(22:31):
the Sunday night you know, watching Thursday Night. You've got
Michael Jordan's previewing Tom Brady on Sunday Night Football. You've
got a rematch of last year's Week one game, Tampa
going to Dallas this year. You're also looking at the
total right now at bet MGM, it's fifty and a half.
Where do you think in here? Crack? Yeah, same thing here.
(22:53):
I I bet under fifty two. I see this game
coming back a little bit though. I listen, it's the
last game of the night. Fans love to uh, I
should say fans, fans and gamblers. They love to chase
at the end of the night. And I, you know
tendencies of the public is the bet favorite and over.
I think they're looking forward to this game. I think
(23:13):
the over may have some more action. I think they
actually it actually may come back across that fifty one.
And that's another thing too. There is key numbers in
in football, and you know on the sides, the three
and the seven are key numbers. On the totals, there
are some key numbers, forty three, even the fifty one.
You know games are four fourteen, So I don't ever,
(23:36):
I always want to make sure I go over the
best number. And right now, standing at fifty and a
half solid everywhere here in town, in Las Vegas, and
uh just everywhere across the country. UH may come back.
I I think they're gonna start out a little bit
slow here these two teams. I usually like to jump
on first half totals. Also in these situations, it's pretty
(23:57):
solid at twenty four and a half bet MGM four.
I'd rather go under like they're at bet bet MGM.
I think that's a good under laying a dollar five
on the under um rather than going under. So they
have a pretty good number here. I may jump on that,
I haven't yet. I think the under for the game, though,
is a pretty solid ben if it goes up the
(24:18):
fifty one, I have no problem with rebetting that or
recommending people to rebet that. Uh, well, we'll see. This
is all eyes are gonna be on Tom here and
and of course going to be on Dallas. This is
a This is a really great job by the schedule
makers to come right out with Tampa Bay Dallas. Uh
first game of the season, so so first first prime
(24:40):
time game of of Sunday. Anyway, I do love One
of the side stories is uh Dak Prescott mentioned on
the injury report. It's got a little bit of a
limp because his Jordan's were a little bit too tight, right.
I think he's wearing Jordan cleats and he switched over
to something else and it caused a little bit of
a hitch in his giddea up. It's any big story,
(25:01):
but anybody who wears Jordan's, you know how that can go.
And so that's what led to Dak being mentioned on
the injury repoard is his shoes a little bit too
tight over the unbelievable. I mean it's almost like like
Wilder Fury. When Wilder said he lost the fight, he
came out with forty pounds of you know, equipment on
top of them coming out of the ring. By the way,
another sport I love. I love boxing, so uh it's
(25:24):
it's I just hope that that's not gonna be the
excuse if they lose. Yeah, right, yeah, we'll see how
that goes. Okay, another game you've got circled here, crack Niners,
Trey Lance taking over for Jimmy g at least for
week one. We'll see how low along that last. With
that situation over there, it gets justin Fields and his
Sam Donald Jets like supporting cast over there, you're looking
(25:48):
at the first half line. It's twenty and a half
at bet MGM, what do you think in this one? Yeah,
it did not bet. It didn't bet it yet. Uh,
twenty and a half good number. There's a lot of
twenties out there, so it's twenty and a half good
number to go under their um. Not going to be
as strong probably as my other two plays. But I
am looking at that listen. I'm kind of down on
the Bears this season. I bet under their season wins.
(26:09):
Literally back in May, I went under seven and a
half minus forty on their on their season wins. I
think this is like two different classes of ball clubs here.
But yet this is one of those things where these
home team opening day dogs that you have to watch.
I'll tell you right now. Uh ten road favorites. I
don't remember a week one with so many road favorites
(26:31):
in my life. So, uh, this is another one of
those situations. These these home dogs do tend to do
pretty well against the spread, and uh, I'm interested too.
I'm looking forward to watching this one. We're gonna following
it along the the ticker here because I want to
see what they come out. I want to see what
happens here with with Trey, I want to see what
(26:53):
comes what happens with Chicago. I kinda uh, like I said,
I'm down on them, but the first week you really
have to attention to see what goes on with these
home dogs, and you know something else, just so people
know now, Uh, I'd rather talk about this now, even
though it's not weak. Two, let's warn the viewers about
overreaction to week one. Spread Wise, don't take this first
(27:15):
week too serious. You know, sometimes the team needs a
game under their belt to adjust to readjust so I
like betting the overreaction against the overreaction week two. So
this is a real important week to watch, So I
don't forget to Anything can happen any given Sunday. Just
you know, look, look at the last few years. What's happened.
(27:35):
How many double digit favorites I've lost? Out right Jacksonville.
I think it was Jackie Jacksonville beating Buffalo last year
out right nine to six. Literally the worst team versus
the best team. Any given Sunday, anything can happen. How
about you mentioned all these uh home underdogs, ten of them?
Is there any one of the ten home underdogs that
you like the most? Boy? Um, I tell you I
(27:59):
would have to look at anything seven points or more
and that almost falls in that category there, San Fran
Uh it probably will. You know, on Sunday there's a
lot of you know, people love to bet last minute.
By the way, go to any sports book in the world.
Uh literally they're lined up uh ten minutes before kickoff.
And don't worry. Every casino in this town and in
(28:21):
the United States that has sports betting, someone will be
shut out because they waited too long. So I would
tend to see that that game may pop back up.
I bet ugly teams too. By the way, my my
betting is not pretty. I'm looking to listen. I make
a live in sports betting, So this is the puts
food on the table, takes care of my family, takes
care of my friends. I'm betting the ugly teams. I'm
(28:43):
betting the teams like the Jets, the Bears, Houston. I mean,
I'm betting some ugly, ugly teams. So that that's just
what I do. And it's because I can, you know,
find those extra value betting against the public. Because the
bookmaker has to overmove lines. They have so much of aolume,
even if it's fifty bucks hundred bucks at a time
over the life of volume, they have to move because
(29:05):
they don't want that big of a side. They don't
you know, of course, every sports book wants a decision
on either either way, but they don't want like a
seven figure decisions, so they have to overmove the line.
And that's one guys like me coming and jump up
and grab that little extra half about half a point.
I like it. He's crack professional sports better I'm Brian. No,
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Hey place
(29:28):
a one game parlay with at least four legs on
any pro football game at bet mgm. If all legs
hit except for one, you'll get your steak back in
free bets up to twenty five dollars. A little bit
of insurance right there. Very nice and also new bet
MGM users use code countdown for a special offer. Okay,
(29:48):
I've heard through my trusted sources that you have about
ninety prop bets on Kirk Cousins this Sunday and one
that I'm gonna look at here his passing yardage against
the Packers. It has climbed all the way up at
bet mgm to two seventy four and a half for
Kirk Cousins. What do you think in this one? Crack? Listen,
(30:09):
I went over to fifty four and a half. It's
twenty more yards and uh, it just sounds like, first
of all, I don't like to go over. I'm an
under guy. You know, historically under is the way to
go on props. There's so many different factors. That one.
The public loves to bet over and everything. Like I said,
and it's fun to go on with your buddies and
root for a team to score. You don't want to
(30:30):
go in there and just be hum drum and you know,
root against the person or root route for someone to
get hurt. So everyone, uh you know, bets over primarily
this one. I I will say, I I bet over
on his past attempts. Uh literally the yards. So I
don't particularly like that number it went up. But I
(30:50):
see this being a really good game for cousins. I'm
I'm all pro cousins this game, and I think will
come out there, and I think this game is a
big game for him. And don't be surprised that green
Bed doesn't come out starting. Listen, all these teams, these
high profile teams, has so much great expectations. Don't be
surprised to see them come out a little bit cold.
(31:11):
But I look at this bet mgm app like like
I told you all fair before, I cannot believe how
many props they have. This is sports betting viagra. This
is unbelievable. Saying it was Christmas morning, It's unbelievable. I
can't believe all the props they have available there. So
I'll just let you know there's gonna be a lot
of low hanging fruit. Okay, so last one for you
(31:35):
crack all the games that you've mentioned. If I say
to you, hey man, I've got two hundred dollars for
week one, how would you um suggest that I divide
that money up with a couple of bets as you
sit there right now, Okay, now the two bucks, you
want to divide that up? Though you don't want all
your eggs in one basket, I would. I would say,
maybe pick like four games and bet like fifty bucks
(31:58):
each on on those games. Uh. I'm not one that
that wants to bet the entire bank roll. But listen,
where I grew up on the East Coast, it was
a rite of passage to gamble. I know that everything
you have in your pocket is getting bet. That's the
way it works. There's no bank roll management, there's no systems.
Everything goes, everything you have goes. And uh so, but
I would recommend definitely breaking it up the fifty dollar
(32:18):
bets and uh you know, having some little bit diversity
and you know, just try to have fun with it. Don't.
Don't just try to chase and and bet at all.
I know what happens with the with the two bucks
when you lose it though, Tampa Dallas, the last game
and the night you're betting that you're trying to get even.
Just let me get even, God and I'll get out
of here. So bank roll management, though, try to do it.
I know it's hard for a lot of you guys. Yeah,
(32:40):
it's essential. I have to do it, no doubt about that.
All right, crack, We're gonna be joined by Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, on Sunday First Show September eleven,
leading up to the week one Sunday games. So just
think three hours before a kickoff, all of our listeners
on any Fox Sports radio affiliate ten am to one
(33:00):
pm Eastern time. If you're on the West coast, Okay,
there's seven am two ten am Eastern time. But three
hours right before that early kickoff time, we'll get you
all set for all the game's crack. You'll have copious notes.
You might have fifty more prop bets on Kirk Cousins
by that time. Who knows, right, I look forward to
my man, I'm stoked, I am too, absolutely all right, everybody.
(33:23):
Thanks for joining the pod and check us out Fox
Sports Radios. Count Down to Kickoff, presented by bed MGM.
Three hours before kickoff, Ultimate Tailgate Party. We'll catch you then,
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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