Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is straight out of Vegas. With the voice of
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are now about to witness the strength of street knowledge
live from the Biggest Strength the pregame show America has
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(00:25):
Chinese proverb that says, may you live in interesting times?
And yes we are. We are a society that's infatuated
with sports. We go to games, we watch him on TV,
and now more than ever, people love to bet on
these games because why well, it feeds our competitive spirit
and it certainly enhances the viewing participation, even if you
(00:47):
don't always get the outcome you want. And on that note,
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Com the way tire buying should be. We are so
loaded tonight we may just have to go straight through
for eight hours. I don't think we're gonna be able
to do that. We should get it done in four
but we don't have a minute to waste. In about
fifteen minutes. You know him, you love me, can't live
without him. He's back. Physic Steve Pheasant The Physic five
will do two segments every week. Everything you want to
(01:31):
know about the NFL, trends, stats, who to bet on,
who physic likes you, name it. The only two time
winner of the Hilton now Westgate Super Contest, and the
accolades don't in there. We've got so much to get
to I think we just need to get to it.
But remember sports your entertainment. But they're more than that.
There are shared experiences, such people want to talk about them.
(01:53):
You've come to the right place. We've got a lot
to talk about tonight. This is tright out of Vegas,
the pregame show you always wanted. And as they saying,
Kirk Cousins Minnesota, it's gonna be lit al right. Before
I dive into a couple of NFL points, I want
to get off my chest. And in terms of by
the way, the NFL has already started. Remember Buffalo One
(02:14):
the other night. You may have read about it on
all the papers, and they were dominant I'm gonna tell
you just how dominant they were in a minute. But
you know, there's Nolan Ryan once he had a sing
the mark of a champion is when you can still
win even though you don't have your best stuff that day.
And if you watched the Alabama Texas game today in
Alabama was a twenty one point favorite bent down to
twenty and a half. A lot of folks, thank god,
(02:37):
I didn't bet that game, but a lot of folks,
you know, felt Obama would just roll right in there
and take care of business, right, but you didn't. You left.
Obama was very sloppy, you know, very undisciplined. Fifteen penalties,
Bryce Young thirty nine two or fifty yards, but a
clutch fourth quarter drive and that's why he showed his
heisman chops. But what does this mean? What is this
(03:00):
game mean for college football? Jason Martin asked me earlier.
You can hear him and Aaron every Saturday night, seven
to eleven pm Pacific, Great show. He asked me, what
do you make it today? I don't know, man, It's
it's more of the same, Okay. I want to focus
on the Texas situation because what does this mean for
Texas giving the SoundBite you're coming out of Steve Sarkasian's
(03:20):
mouth recently, not a lot if you're gonna simply accept
Sarkasian's rationale, who basically said is much on on Monday,
he said, this game, after all, has no impact on
Texas's pursuit of playing for the Big twelve championship. Okay,
he was right about that, But no, I don't accept
Sarkasian's explanation. This game, even though you know, it wasn't necessarily,
(03:42):
you know, a huge, terrible loss, it was all moral
victory for some people, it means a lot to the
Texas program. Okay, it's a loss. Texas season. Texas is
national prestige. They're recruiting their fans who showed up early,
hooked up to a blender. They got live, they stayed
the entire game. If you can win by losing, I
(04:03):
guess this is probably it. But you know me, there's
no such thing as a good loss. It's like a
good kidney stone. You don't want to lose. They had
the game. The Longhorns were twenty underdogs, and they went
toe to toe with the best team in the country,
or at least the number one ranked team in the country.
By the way, the Crimson Tide. They've now won an
incredible fifty four straight games against nonconference opponents. That's the
(04:26):
street that goes back to November two thousand seven, two
months after the infamous game in ann Arbor, a game
I was at a game I coverage for one FM
in Detroit when app State beat Michigan thirty two the day. Oh,
by the way, they did it again today. That's college
football for you. Back then app State was they weren't
even an FB an FBS team, They're an FCS team.
(04:49):
There were five You've heard me say it as many times.
Off of the game comes down to five plays because
you know most of the game, you know, back and forth. Here,
there's punsters, field goals, there's turnovers, there's you name it.
But there are typically five critical players in the game,
all right, Number one forced first and foremost. And that
(05:10):
final drive, Bryce Young's nineteen yard game after after the
gentleman's name is Ryan Watts. He had a sack, he
was starting at a sack. He had a bee line
to Bryce Young, and Bryce Young ducked out of it.
This is in the final end of the game that
set up Bama's winning kick that instead of a six
yards seven yard loss, was a nineteen yard game twenty
(05:30):
six night yards. That was a critical play. How about
the fourth and one decision by Nick Saban when he
was up seventeen sixteen with four minutes to go to
go for it at the Texas rather than kick the
safe field goal for a twenty to sixteen advantage. Now,
Roy L. Williams lost his footing and slipped and she
short and that gave Texas a chance for one last
(05:53):
drive number three. You know, Saburn never likes to lose
to Auburn. Hell, he almost lost to Auburn today. Burt Auburn.
Love that dude's name, man uh Burt Auburn's twenty nine
yard field goal at the end. It was a clutch
kick and it would have gone down maybe one of
the greatest highlights in Texas history if they weren't so
(06:16):
caught up in this moral victory. Now, by the way,
another key play the roughing the pass or penalty at
the end of the first quarter. They knocked Quinn Yours
out of the game. Ah deja vu all over again.
Maybe you were at the Rose Bowl back in that's
the month I moved to Vegas. When Colt McCoy went
(06:38):
out and Garrett Gilbert came in. That was the National
Championship game. That's when Texas was Texas man. Colt McCoy
gets the shoulder injury against number one Alabama, he has
to leave the game. Well you know what happened after that.
Another critical play, This is the fifth and final critical
play thought of failed. It was a third and five
pass player to be gan Robinson early in the fourth
(06:59):
with this was leading thirteen to ten at the time.
Now touchdown would have been a big difference there, And
I think what it did, it just basically amplified the
issues that Starkes has to deal with. He got to
the red zone five times. Today you gotta have more production.
But man, I feel so bad. Texas is almost back.
(07:20):
Maybe I don't know where they go from here, home, dinner,
maybe a show. But coming out of that game, it
felt like a win, but it wasn't a win. And
I'll walk away by saying what would have happened? What?
What the hell would have happened if Quinn Yours had
not gotten knocked out of the game. He was singing
the ball over the lot. He looked great. I'm starting
(07:40):
to think that space cowboy and mullet he rocks is
bad luck. Last week he drove his Porsche to the stadium,
came out and got told he had the wrong pass
out of his Porsch, gets told at his own stadium.
And today he gets sacked and her interest his left
shoulder and he's standing on the sidelines with a sling.
I feel bad for the guy. I like him, No, dude,
I like him. He couldn't started Ohio State, well the
need to could Joe Burrow seemed to work out good
(08:02):
for him. Ohio State likes running quarterbacks. I don't think
this guy's a running quarterback, not if you mean running
in a sense of like, not Joe Flacco running where
you're you know, you got the all the mobility of
an upright vacuum cleaner. But this kid can play. Make
no mistake, Make no mistake. I was pretty impressed. Thank
god it was his non throwing shoulder. He kicked a bucket,
not really kicked the bucket, but if he saw coming
(08:24):
leaving the field, he kicked a bucket on the way
to the trainer's tent, and when he walked into the
locker room. He had a towl draped over his head.
Still nine twelve for a hundred and thirty four yards.
He didn't throw any touchdown passes, but he didn't throw
any picks either. What a day for college football. Meanwhile,
on Michigan and Aaron, Aaron and uh and Jason, we're
talking about this all right, So let's unpack quickly the
(08:45):
kid McNamara versus uh J J or Dylan. See I
keep screwing out. I used to screw up Dylan McCaffrey
with Jaye Patterson and Joe Milton because we just went
through this Kubucky dance four years ago. Kid McNamara, uh
right versus uh uh j J. McCarthy, Not Dylan McCaffrey,
(09:06):
J J. McCarthy. See that five times fast? All right?
So in August, you know, McNamara was named captain. Remember
this is a dude that won the Big Ten championship
last year, Michigan's first in eighteen years. This is the
dude that came off the bench in November when Michigan
was trailing Rutgers seventeen to nothing and Michigan's you know,
season was really about to go off a cliff Mcnamerica
(09:29):
comes off the bench, saves their banking. This is a
guy who was committed to Notre Dame back in ten
when Hardball figured out that Dylan McCaffrey was gonna work
and either was Joe Milton and Jaye Patterson was only
good for one more year. I don't know what happened,
don't know, I don't want to know, but somehow he uh,
you know, he being Cad McNamara decommitted from Notre Dame
(09:52):
and he ended up in Michigan. So it's pretty clear
that the narrative was always going to be the game
breaker versus the game manager. And I think clearly everybody
saw that, uh that Dylan McCaffrey, Uh, j J. He
did it again. J J. McCarthy has won the job.
And I was texting my good mole, who was in
(10:12):
the press box the entire game. Three weeks from well
actually two weeks from next Friday, my New Friday Show,
I'll have a Michigan wrap on a guy I've known since,
worked with since ninety four back in the day, very connected.
We'll have a little fun. That's the night before the
Iowa game, when it starts to get real. Remember when
Michigan goes to Iowa and kinnick I don't know. I
I was not look good. But Michigan hasn't won there
(10:34):
since five and you know Iowa kind of blew up
their twenty six season there. So look, well we'll see
what happens. We'll get off this stuff and move forward.
But you don't want to miss my Friday Show two
weeks from next Friday, because I will have a Michigan
guy on. It's very well connected, and I will tell
you we have a lot of good personal history. All
(10:54):
right about, you know, a few minutes, we're gonna get
to Steve Ezzik and dive into the NFL. We've got NFL,
NFL and more on the FL, and again the season's
already started. How dominant was Buffalo Thursday night? Well, here's
how dominant they were. You know, if you turn the
ball over four times in an NFL game, you only
have a chance to win. They won by three touchdowns.
They mean Buffalo. But I don't know why I keep
(11:15):
doing this, you know, master of the pronoun act. I
want to get off that seven sacks. You've heard it, everybody,
You've heard everybody repeated already. Now Buffalo sack Stafford seven times.
It didn't even blitz the Rams. Twenty one point marston
a deficit the other night is the largest by a
defending Super Bowl champ in the season opener, uh, in
the last nine years, I believe. And it's also was
(11:38):
Sean mcveigh's first Week one loss. And uh, you know,
coincidentally that day the Rams extended him in less sneed
but and they deserve it. Okay, I like Sean mcphagh.
I thought he was class act after the in the
press conference. Bills didn't even punt, not once. And Bills
turned out the pretty good the last six games. Four
(11:58):
of the last six games the Bill is han't punted.
And now the Bills, if you're scoring at home, and
you know you are, they're now thirteen and five against
the number week one. Since that's good for number one
in the NFL. And look again, the Bills weren't perfect,
but they were sure as hell better than the Rams
were the other night. And Josh Allen is Superman thirty
(12:20):
one for two ninety seven. He makes plays. He threw
a couple of picks right first interception wasn't his fault.
Isa McKenzie basically ripped the ball and get the ball
he just handed to the linebacker and says keep it. Uh.
And so you know, onward and upward Buffalo. Uh. You
get to see the Bills again in another primetime matchup
a week from Monday, as they'll host Tennessee. As for
(12:41):
the Rams, they'll lift their wounds. They'll be home again
next week in the eighteenth they'll host Marcus Mariotta in
the Atlanta Falcons. There's plenty of blame to go around
on on l A side. I don't really want to
mention names. Jalen Ramsey targeted seven times, six catches, a
hundred twenty four yards, two touchdowns. I don't dislike Jalen Ramsey.
I think he's an elite athlete, world class athlete. But
(13:03):
he's beat a lot. Don't act like he doesn't. So
it's hard to repeat, and I would not. My final
thought on this is I would not glean one whole
hell of a lot from one game. New England Patriots
opened up the following season lost to Buffalo. Uh. Whatte
to nothing went on got back to the Super Bowl.
We've seen this happen before. Green Bay got smoke class
(13:26):
year by New Orleans in Jacksonville and they ended up
going to the playoffs. And you know, you get the picture.
So one game does now a season make, But perhaps
the rams have been exposed a little bit coming up. Yes,
it's that time. You're gonna get him. This time slot
from now until the Super Bowl is Steve Pezik and
the Physic five. You don't want to miss this. And
(13:47):
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Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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on Straight out of Vegas, the pregame show you always
want to have Bernie Freddo Company alive from the Tire
Act dot Com, Las Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Studios. You've
(15:34):
waited seven months. It's at time, folks. The only man,
the two time winner of the Hilton now Westgate Super
Contest and the last finalist of the start Us Line,
the famous start Us line. It is that time. Welcome
in everybody for Steve Phazik and the Physic five. The
time is now. It's the Physic five. These are the
(15:57):
five things you need to hear about. No when the
only back to back Hilton Super Contest winner Steve being
here's Bernie Fretto, Well says here, were going about ten minutes.
We'll do a quick hitter of some of the games tomorrow.
But the favorite part of this segment for a lot
of folks is the knowledge and wisdom you drop. There
(16:19):
are a couple of huge contests in Vegas each year
that have resulted in what are called overlays. Explained to
the people what those are and how a great mathematician
like you takes advantage, and it doesn't have to be
a great mathematician. Everyone takes advantage. Basically their guarantees. When
a place like Circuit guarantees six million dollars in the
(16:40):
prize pool for Circuit millions handicapping contests and only people
sign up, which is the cases here, that's only four
point six million other thousand of pop so one point
four million extra dollars goes in the prize fund. Now,
something similar happened in college football with the William Hill
Flash Caesar's Contest. And I gotta tell you, Bernie, I
(17:02):
am just amazed. There's many different contests that you can
go ahead and enter. I would think everyone would see
what I see. That. Well, your first, if you have
a certain budget of contests, you have to enter the
contest with the big overlays first. We'll talk about this
twenty years from now, about this being one of the
greatest deals in the history of Vegas. And yet you know,
(17:23):
at Bernie, more than six thousand people sign up for
the Survivor contest. You know why, no overlay because it
was over six thousands. Because survivors fun and it's simple,
and people like to have fun, they don't like to win.
And I'm just amazed by it because the millions contests
with the overlay with such the better choice, absolutely fast,
(17:44):
good stuff. Let's dive into it. You are obviously, we
are in complete agreement on this. There is one simple
reason that people manage to lose betting sports, and it's
the reason you're about to give right now. You think
that there's a right and a wrong side of the
games and simply not true. You need to get the
(18:05):
right prices on the games. You know. I'll use an example.
Look no further this year to the Pitt Panthers in
college football. So Pitt Week one, they won by seven
against West Virginia. You could have laid five at the opener.
You could have taken plus eight at some point on
West Virginia. You get where I'm going. Regardless of which
(18:25):
side you bet on, you should have won that game.
And then well boom hartop happens again. Tennessee opens is
a five point favorite against Pit. It gets bet up
all the way there worth some sevens. So if you
bet Tennessee should have won. If you bet Pitt, you
should have pushed. And instead of spending all of your
time analyzing the right and the wrong side of games,
spend much more time try and analyze where the lines
(18:47):
are moving and how to get the very best number
on the games. Always Michigan opened up and a half,
it got bet to fifty two, Michigan on to ten.
You can do the math, folks, all right. Fas you've
been the master of the props. We did our Super
Bowl show, you probably had seventy eight propets and the
Super Bowl show. We know the NFL's back. You could
(19:08):
bet Thursday night three ways, three hundred props Thursday night,
including Matt Stafford minus to throw an interception. Of course,
we all know what happened there, chays, why should you
bet props and nothing else? Because the props carry with
such enormous advantages versus betting on sides. Now you find
a good side bet, that's perfectly good. People make a
(19:30):
living betting sides. I think it hit if you're really
good at its probably, but you're frying hamburgers compared to
it's Bess there. All right, Chris, you go ahead and
working on getting fest back. Fess was talking about betting
proposition bets. You know what prop bets are. There are
(19:52):
player bets, there are team bets who will score them
a first touchdown. Well, Josh Allen threw for more than
two hundred and seventy yards or less. Because I just
mentioned Matt Stafford minus one, you have a situation there,
what do you throw an interception? If you bet, yes,
you got it. There were actually three hundred prop bets
you could bet Thursday night in the Buffalo game as well.
(20:14):
A won't. So. One of the things, too, is it's
easier to find market inefficiencies on profits because they can't uh,
you know, books can't get one of them, right, Chris,
I just got a texture in Fez. I'm assuming you're
calling them back, he said, calling back. So we'll get
on that in a minute. Uh. Coming up. Festival is
also going to have a situation on why college football
(20:38):
sides and totals are such so much more beatable than
the NFL. I have a thought on that as well,
and in complete agreement with Fez. One of the reasons
that's the case is because, first of all, there are
so many lines to put up on the board in
college football. There's no way the books can get them
all right. There's gonna be marketing efficiencies, There's gonna be mistakes,
there's gonna be situations where perhaps action comes a certain
(21:02):
way and the book doesn't have time to adjust, or
whatever the case may be. The college is different. The
other thing, too, is in college football, and almost every game,
you've got better athletes on one side of the ball.
And when you've got better athletes on one side of
the ball, that is going to be somewhat of a
great equalizer, and the question is did they get that?
(21:23):
Right now? Fast was also going to talk about his
best bet uh Sunday. I can tell you what it was,
and hopefully we get Fast back, but if we don't,
I'll tell you what it was or what it is Sunday.
I mean this, this game goes off, all right, Fez,
let's dive right in. I just gave my explanation on
why college football sides and totals more beatable than the NFL.
(21:43):
Go ahead, you got the floor, Yeah, so just so
much more variant. You look at the numbers and how
much they move you. You quoted the Michigan line. It's rare.
You're good. Get get an NFL game that's gonna move
five points. Our mutual friend, Brad Powers, he bet stuff
on a weekly basis to move seven points. That is off.
In college football, the market is much more inefficient. And
(22:04):
that's why Wilson, why don't approach just but college because
the NFL limits are so much higher than some of
the betting syndicates have to go NFL to get down
what they want to get down. If you have a
limited bankroll, you should be betting college football. Fas final thought, uh,
divisional divisional dogs Week one ten at seventy six in
(22:28):
two thousand four. I'll explain why later in the show.
But your best bet tomorrow has to do with the
divisional dog. Yeah, so obviously I'm gonna go with the
divisional dog with that powerful trend. But I talked about
I want to get the right number, Bernie. I don't
want to get short change, get a number that's not
so good. And here we're getting the best of the number.
We're specifically, the Steers are catching seven. You know, half
(22:49):
the books have seven, half had six and half, but
there's plenty of sevens out there. If you have multiple outs,
you're going to have access to a seven, whether it
be at William here Hill locally, MGM Mirage. You get
the idea, and I see no way this line goes higher.
Double revenge for the Steelers. I think that much better
quarterback played for the Steers this year. UM Bengals quarterbacks
(23:12):
coming off in appendicitis hadn't Burrow hasn't played at all
during the preseason Super Bowl hangover. Teams off the Super
Bowl hangover. The loser four and eighteen to start the
season should be a really close game and and here's
the beauty. We don't have to take plus six. Ut
we're actually getting the seven on this game. Love the
Steelers plus seven, love the the handicap, and I loved
(23:34):
the price as well. Perfect universe. That's my best bet. Yeah,
this is the planets in line. Nice and that one alright?
Coming up, Fez and I, as we did last year,
we're gonna go rapid fire and hit some several key games.
Who get the best in the business. Fez's opinion on
several key NFL games that kick off here in just
a few hours. But first let's go to Nick colepen
(23:54):
the latest. What's going on, Bernie, We have had a
wild finish to Week two of the college football season.
We get you cut up on here and the last
couple of minutes. B y U rank number twenty one
in the nation. They just defeated number nine Baylor twenty
six to twenty in double overtime. He had a bunch
of missed field goals earlier, but b y U able
(24:15):
to persevere and win that one. Also Oregon State and
Fresno State taking place in the California Central Valley. Oregon
State wins at thirty five thirty two, but after Fresno
State took a three point lead, which they missed the
extra point to make it a four point game. By
the way, Oregon State brings it all the way down
to the two yard line. They bring out the field
(24:37):
goal unit with three seconds left to kick the field goal,
send it to ot. Fresno State calls the time out
to ice the kicker, so Jonathan Smith says, okay, we're
going for the win. They go wildcat with Jack Coleto
who's primarily a linebacker, and they walk it off thirty
five thirty two. So great finishes back to back moments ago,
and we saw have one more game going on. Mrs
(25:00):
be State leads Arizona thirty two to seventeen. The rest
of the top ten, of course, we had a couple
of upsets earlier today, number six Texas A and M
falling to Appalachian State seventeen to fourteen, and number eight
Notre Dame upset by Marshall to twenty one. For both
Apps State and Marshall, it's their programs second ever win
(25:21):
over a top ten team. You also had drama with
number one Alabama in Austin against Texas. They escaped, though
do the Crimson Tide twenty to nineteen. Texas quarterback Quinn
Ears left the game in the first quarter with a
strained clavical and Alabama was able to overcome fifteen penalties
in that one. The rest of the top ten very
(25:43):
much drama free. You had Michigan all over Hawaii fifty
six to ten, and afterwards coach Jim Harbass says JJ
McCarthy will start next week against Yukon. He has earned
that number one starting job. Go to the NFL. With
games coming up four week one, we're sports say forty
Niners tight end George Kittle along with Cardinals defensive end J. J. Watt.
(26:06):
Both those players expected to miss their respective games, Kittles
dealing with a groin injury at j J. Watt dealing
with a calf injury. On the flip side, reports say
Bucks wide receiver Chris Godwin and Saints wide receiver Michael
Thomas are both expected to play earlier. The Colts and
Pro Bowl offensive lineman Quentin Nelson reportedly agreed to a
(26:27):
four year extension worth eighty million dollars that makes Nelson
the highest paid guard in NFL history. Quick look around
Major League Baseball, The Dodgers magic number to clinch the
NL West is down to four after they beat the
Padres eight to four. Mariners got by the Braves three
to one. Seattle's got a five game lead for that
final wild card spot in the a L and Albert
(26:48):
poolhol has hit home run number six nineties six to
tie Alex Rodriguez for fourth place on the all time list.
Cardinals beat the Pirates seven of five. Finally, at the
US Open, Eagle's Fiontech is your women's champions. She defeated
on Jabber and then coming up on the men's side,
the final will pit teenage phenomen Carlos Alcarez against Caspar Roud.
(27:11):
Bernie back to you all right, Thanks nick, I am
Bernie Fratte. We are Comedy Alive from the Tire Act
dot Com Las Vegas Studios. We resume with Steve Pezik
and the Physic five and much the same way we
did last year. We entered the Lightning Round. Fes will
go over several key games tomorrow that people are talking about.
Let's go down to Miami. No team in the NFL
(27:31):
underwent more personnel changes in the off season. The Patriots
still a paltry two and seven straight up against the
spread in Miami, just two and six in those games
in that hot September. Who do you like in this game?
I would look hurts the Patriots for two reasons. Of One,
they've put down in South beat for five days practicing
in the heat humidity, so they should be more used
(27:53):
to it than normal. And secondly, nothing has really changed
on this game. It was two and a half a
week ago. We talked about getting the best of the number.
If you asked me last week, I like the Dolphins
two and a half. You asked me tonight, I like
the Patriots plus the three and a half Dolphins win
by three. I like that, Fiz, And I'm glad I
have not touched the game yet because if I do,
I think I'll get the best of the number. And
(28:13):
I'm sitting back and watching. I'm not allowing the group
think echo Chamber who influenced me. Everybody keeps telling us
Belichick forgot to coach. So we'll see what happens and
who's right Tomorrow. All right, a game we'll all be
watching Carolina host Cleveland. Label it whatever you want, but
I will tell you Cleveland is one and one straight
up in season openers since what happens Sunday, I have
(28:37):
no idea. I made the game pick, and the game's
pretty much pick better opportunities to invest. We pass this
game very good fast. San Francisco aheads to the Chicago
laying a touchdown. Your thoughts. You can still catch us
seven and I think you know Kittle being out is
a big deal. H Field conditions are going to be bad,
Newpermuda grass. I think it's correlated. If you've got the
(28:57):
Bears plus seven, I would play a parlay with the
under forty and a half. I think the only way
the Bears cover is a seventeen type of game for correlation.
Farris to under a game near and dear to my heart,
my beloved Lions who have covered for ten years. Catching
five and a half at home again Philadelphia, I do
know this hard knocks teams that open up as a
home dog four and o four and no as a
(29:19):
home dog Lions also five and one against the spreading
games singing let me try that again in English singul
game revenge. Let me turn it over to you, Philly Detroit.
Your thoughts. So there's a recent narrative on this game,
and that's that the Detroit Lions have on line issues
and the Eagles gonna run all over and like they
did last year. And so this line the steaming upwards,
(29:41):
that's great. Let it continue to steam. I have no
opinion right now, but I think we're going to catch
six or more with the Lions, probably six and a
half tomorrow. You know what, if it goes up to
six or more, I think we can invest on the Lions. Absolutely.
Another team that's getting into we're attached down at home.
The Houston Texans will be visited by the Coats game
one and home. Houston's tenant four is a division dog
(30:02):
of nine or fewer points. I think Houston's life here.
I don't like Houston at all. You had all summer, Bernie,
you had all summer to play plus eight and a half.
Now it's the night before. You let the wise guys
come in play it. Yeah, I didn't play. You let
the wise guys come in and take out your number.
Now you want to pay eight dollars for gas instead
of six fifty. Well, actually that analogy doesn't work because
(30:23):
the price is going down. But you get you get
the idea. I didn't see. Yes, you should have had eight.
You need, and you needed eight on Houston, not seven. Well,
I'll get full disclosure on the games I'm on. I'm
only on a couple right now. I'm on the under
in Baltimore Jets. Your thoughts, Yeah, the sharp guys are
on that under as well. You know that was kind
of under my radar, and I just became aware of
(30:44):
it recently, and I certainly agree with it. But I
played it a week ago. All right, Arizona post Kansas
City thoughts on that game? Oh, you know, I'm just
waiting for the seven again. The narrative is that Arizona
fighting some injuries and the like, and the Chiefs gonna win. Well, sure,
the chief should win. Homes looks great in preseason. Note
(31:05):
the recurring theme. If if you asked me three weeks ago,
I'd say late four, what Arizona really good? Bet? Now
I'm like Arizona plus seven probably a good investment. It's
all about the numbers, Burday. I know that's boring. It's
not what people want to hear. Hey, you want to
win or you want to be entertained. No, that's why
you're on fest because and I preached this as well.
But let's get the second voice on here the two
(31:26):
time champion. Look, I believe the send offline was three
and a half weeks ago, right, Kanger said he was
half ann and stayed there for two months, literally two months,
So all of this I hear you. Look, if you
want to put two stamps on an envelope, folks, and
it really needs one, that's on you. By the way,
ten ten home dogs this weekend in the NFL, the
(31:46):
most in the Super Bowl era. We already saw one
home dog lose out right, all right, Uh, Las Vegas.
I'm not sold on the Raiders this year. They head
to Los Angeles, but to three and a half days
intriguing to meet your thoughts. You know, I'm going back
and forth because on the one hand, the Chargers are
three points better than the Raiders and they're sleeping in
(32:08):
their home city, and I'm thinking, yeah, that Chargers are cheap.
And then on the other hand, I'm like, don't be
an idiot, Fez, it's going to be crowd for the Raiders.
The Raiders have the home field advantage um at three
and a half Idolene Raiders because of the home field. Yeah,
you're you're spot on about that. It'll be a Raiders
home game. Three more and we'll knock these out and
(32:28):
we'll let you run Fez. Minnesota host screen Bay. Another
dog at home, another divisional dog. Minnesota eleven and one
against his spread in their last twelve games as a
home dog. Thoughts. Yeah, I totally endorsed the Vikings obviously,
Packers without their number one wide receiver now Lizard is injured.
It's just too asking Aaron Rodgers too much. All the
(32:50):
Vikings do is play close games. This is going to
be a close game, but I do think the Vikings
will find a way to win it. I would look
to the Vikings all right, Dallas on the Sunday night
game they host Tampa Bay. I love Campa Bay. I
gotta minus one. I don't care. I love Tampa baby. Thoughts,
I'm gonna look to the total. Both teams major injuries
(33:12):
on offense and issues with their old lines. Well, with
both of them having those struggles, all I can do
is go under in this game. So under the fifty
and a half would be my best bet Sunday Night,
as long as Mike McCarthy's on the sideline in the
mall parking lot looking for his lost car. Because you
can't remember where we Parke did. That's good enough for me.
I'll take Tom Brady all right, Monday night. This game
(33:34):
will have obvious interest for obvious reasons. That's the department
of redundancy department. Russell Wilson goes home. Your thought as
Denver visit Seattle, let's talk about redundancy issues here. What's
the most obvious game on the card? Well, Denver is
the most obvious. Denver is good now with Russell Wilson
and Seattle's putrid and Seattle didn't get a quarterback during
(33:57):
the off season. Well, you know what we knew that
two weeks ago, the lates five. I'm sorry for the
recurring message here. If you like Denver, you you should
have bet the minus four or certainly minus five. But
now you were lazy. You didn't even look at the game.
And not lazy, but you did, just didn't look at
the end. It's fine, just so don't bet it. If
you like Denver, don't bet it. Just watch it and
(34:17):
enjoy it. Because the price is now too high on Denver.
The line has gone up to seven in some places,
and at seven or more, I will absolutely invest in
Seattle with a huge home crowd that they always have
at home. And you know what, if Russell Wilson plays
like a top five quarterback, this line should be seven.
I am not convinced that he's going to integrate and
(34:38):
play that well. And frankly was not playing that well
when he was injured last year. Well, he's got to
prove it to me. Theres always great stuff. Appreciate it.
Good luck Sunday. We'll see you right back in this
slot next Saturday night. Steve Fezig and Physic five. Thanks Fez,
Thank you. Bernie. All right, coming up seven. The last
nineteen years, we've had a situation and where someone's gone
(35:00):
from last and first. You want to have a little
fun with the long shot. I'll tell you who I'm
thinking about. I'm Bernie Frado. Where come to you? Live
from the Las Vegas Tire Irac dot Com, Fox Sports
Radio Studios keep it locked right here. You're listening to
Straight Out of Vegas. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
(35:22):
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. We're back on Straight out Vegas, the
pregame show you always wanted I'm Bernie Freddo come to
you live from the tirac dot Com studios. Before I
go any further, I want to think my broadcast team
back in Los Angeles, Chris Perfect, my technical producer, Brandon Trufa,
(35:42):
all your efforts and of course Nick Cope on the updates,
and they will be with me as you will be
all the way until three am Pacific, six am Eastern.
We are just getting started, and so as the NFL.
And you know, of the last nineteen years, seventeen of
those nineteen years, somebody has gone from last to first
in their division. Now, I don't think it's gonna be
(36:04):
Jacksonville or the Lions or Panthers are certainly not the Seahawks.
But there are two teams, and once more of a
long shot and the other. And by the way, back
in two teams actually went from worst to first. You've
already forgotten the Bears. They were twelve and four that year.
Mitch Drabinsky. Yeah, that Mitch Drabinsky. Make fun of them
all you one. He was playoffs to the last three
(36:26):
years with the Bears and thirteen records, sixty four touchdowns,
thirty seven interceptions. But I get it. The group think
Echo Chamber said Kenny Pickett with his straw right in
the start, because he held he played in that stadium. Yeah,
well it didn't happen, all right, But I digress. But
Rabinsky was good, in very good. He was Matt Naggy's
first year. And not only did the Bears make the playoffs.
(36:48):
You remember the Cody Parky double joint kick field goal
miss against Philly, They would have won a damn playoff game.
So there's a team no one thought could do it.
So when I give you this team, you know what
you might. And I talked about this pretty succinctly on
Jason McIntyre's podcast a few weeks back. Look, let's cut,
let's cut to the chase. You can get to New
(37:09):
York Giants eight to one to win that division. Uh.
And I'm talking, of course about the uh uh the
NFC East. And you say, Bernie, what have you been
smoking nothing? The NFC East is weird. You haven't produced
a repeat champions since two thousand four. For starters, Brian
(37:29):
Dable comes in. Remember he's the one who helped develop
Josh Allen and Buffalo now doing the same with Daniel Jones.
Is gonna be a lot bigger challenge, But I think
Dabile knows what he's working with and he's gonna be
able to deal with the limitations that Daniel Jones has.
But here's the kicker. Last year's defense from the New
York Giants was mostly decent, and they hadd an elite
(37:50):
pass rusher in Cavon Thibodeaux. I know he's hurt right now,
but it's a long season. Let's see what happens. Consider
the schedule the Giants will play. They're gonna they get
to like Carolina, the Bears, the Jaguars, the Seahawks, the Texans,
the Lions, and the Washington Commanders twice. None of those
teams had better than sixty two one odds to win
Super Bowl fifty seven. So the New York Giants could
(38:13):
theoretically win ten games without beating a single playoff team
along the way, and coming up at the top of
the hour, I'm gonna tell you why I'm so down
on Dallas for one last time, so I can get
it through everybody's head. So the New York Giants eight
to one to win the NFC East. It's not far fetched.
(38:33):
But again, there's a reason it's eight to one. Just saying, now,
who's more probably more likely to possibly continue this trend
of seventeen of the last nineteen years, Well, that's simple.
The Baltimore Ravens there two to one. Okay, the Ravens
present pretty good value in terms of betting on a prop.
(38:55):
Festal like Fest talked about having to do with going
from last the first, because look what happened to the
Ravens last year. Okay, even though the Ravens finished last
in the f C North, they were actually only two
games back of first place. And I think the Ravens
had they actually still had a pretty good chance to
(39:16):
win the division if not for all the injuries and
and you know, you had the Lamar Jackson situation. The
Ravens lost their two top running backs last year before
the season even started, they lost both starting cornerbacks, and
the list continued on. And if, if, if the Ravens
stay healthy this year, knock on wood, they have a
(39:38):
great chance to bounce back and go from from worst
to first. Lamar Jackson is healthy and he's clearly motivated,
clearly motivated. I think the Ravens had a very good draft.
And I'm still a believer in the defense. Even after
they trade Hollywood Brown, this is this might be the
team to beat in the a f C North. I
know Cincinnati's gonna weigh and can you can bet on that.
(39:59):
But even that the defending conference champ is it's tough
to repeat in Baltimore should snap back from the issues
they had. Well, I would say that two to one.
Along the short of it is Baltimore presents pretty good
value to go from last to first. But again, the
New York Giants, you get them an eight to one.
By the way, not for nothing. Again, I want to
emphasize this. Divisional dogs Week one in the NFL have
(40:24):
been sixty four percent since two thousand and four and
ten since two thousand and fourteen seventy six. You've got
a bunch of division dogs. Tomorrow I named him. We
talked about you know, Atlanta as a home dog. Since
then they are Pittsburgh, New England, Minnesota, the Raiders. It's
(40:45):
easy to find you look at the division dogs t
N Why is that? And by the way, September is
even profitable for betting dogs. Real simple, Most teams started
full strength, are optimistic. They haven't given up yet. Depression
Deathan set In, and the good teams aren't fully four.
They're using this as the extension of the preseason, which
a lot of people don't care about. So you know,
(41:08):
they're more evenly matched and they're more familiar. All right,
that's gonna do for straight out of AGAs. Keep it
locked right here. We continue on with Fox Sports Sunday
on Fox Sports Radio. I'm Bernie Freddo. Keep it locked.