September 16, 2022 • 34 mins
Brian Noe takes an early look on betting both college football and NFL this weekend with the sharpest minds in the game! Brian previews college football with Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith, as he highlights some top matchups that he's placed his money on. Brian discusses NFL Week 2 with Sports Handicapper from KackWins.com Bill Krackomberger. Krack gives insight on much of the Sunday slate in the NFL and tells you which players props he's hottest on ahead of the games!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
the largest tailgate party in the nation. Let's go Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bat MGM, the
King of sports books. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win. Three is
(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by Bett mg A. We're live from
your tail game. Here's Brian No, no, no, everybody, what's
going on? Welcome to Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM.
(00:45):
What's gonna happen on the podcast today? I'll tell you
what's gonna happen on the podcast today. We've got Jared Smith,
lead betting analyst from picks wise dot com. We're talking
college ball with Jared, and then we have our NFL
s more agus sport with Bill Krackenburger, sports handicapper from
crack wins dot com. We'll get you all set for
(01:06):
Week two in the NFL. By the way, new users,
download the bet mgm app today and use code countdown
for a special offer. That's code countdown in the bet
mgm app. Let's welcome in Jared Smith, our college football guru.
I would like, Jared if we did not discuss anything
Notre Dame related. I'm from South Bend and I'm still
(01:28):
licking my wounds. That's a tough one, and I'll be honest.
I I think I hope you get that win this week.
We thought it was gonna be last week. Um, eventually,
I'm confident Marcus Freeman will get a win. I'm not
sure if this is the week though, man that I
hope the three to the season, oh and four overall
for Marcus Freeman. Two is an under and you know
(01:49):
two is as a favorite. I mean, listen, I I
know you don't want to talk about it, but you
know you'll let the genie out of the bottle by
leading the podcasts, So there's really no avoiding it. I
think there's still a lot of positives with with what's
happening in South ben I just think it's been a
tough circumstance with the two games that they started with,
(02:10):
you know, the ball game last year and of course
Ohio State this year, and then you throw in a
Marshall team that obviously no one expected them to win
the game. But they just I'm concerned. I think with
the offensive line. That would be the one thing that
really concerns me. Not getting any push against Marshall in
that game. Um, but besides that, there were still some
opportunities for Notre Dame to win that game. But now
(02:31):
you've got a quarterback issue. You're right, maybe we should
just leave this one on set. Listen, man, I'll stay
real fast. I'm with you. The offensive line was supposed
to be the strength of the team. They can't run
the ball on you. That's very disappointing. And and and
and when we talk about a lot of these games,
you know, the offensive line and the trenches, especially when
you're talking about a have and I have not. I
(02:52):
don't want to take anything away from Marshall, but the
talent level is just that the gap is wide. That's
the first place you look. If the and we talked
about in Iowa couple weeks ago, again South Dakota say
they couldn't run the ball against the lesser opponents. So
that is something to keep in mind. If they can't
run the ball and their quarterback is you know, limited,
because now it's a backup, especially limited, it's gonna be
(03:13):
struggle city for Marcus Freeman's bunch this year. Well, at
least Marcus Freeman is still employed. We can't say the
same thing about Scott Frost at Nebraska. He gets the
heave ho. It was that bad against Georgia Southern that
they're like, it's it's over. We can't wait till October
one and the buyout is cut in half. You're gone
right now. But Nebraska hosting Oklahoma, Nebraska. We're looking at
(03:38):
the line at bet MGM, it's a plus ten and
a half. What do you think about Nebraska, who has
just been a smolder ring, just decaying mess. Are you
on the corn Huskers this weekend? Jared? Yeah. And when
you look at the preseason look aheadline, and again you know,
these lines are created months prior and they're based off
(03:59):
of our ratings from last year, so it's not you know,
it's not an exact science, but Nebraska was just a
three point underdog in that look aheadline game of the
year offseason lines that some of the bigger sports books
will put out again very early in the summer. But
when you flash forward a few weeks here, not a
lot has changed. Besides Scott Frost being removed. Oklahoma has
(04:22):
played two cupcakes, you tup and Kent State. Brent Venables
is about to coach in his first true road game
as the headman um in Norman. But not a lot
else really has changed here yet. This line has gone
from Nebraska plus three it actually opened at sixteen, and
Nebraska money has come in hot and heavy to the market.
The smart betters have certainly liked what they've seen because
(04:43):
of the upside that we're going to see. I think
with Mickey Joseph, who's the offensive guru, wide receiver coach,
passing game coordinator, that's gonna take over the interim tag
um in Lincoln, and obviously the home game being the
big Noons showcase spot, I think we'll add some juice
to this game. But when you look at just the
trend of firing a head coach or departing with your
(05:05):
head coach mid season, well, there's really not much to
to glean off of that teams in the game after
that last year it happened twelve times, six and six
against the spread, four and eight straight up, and you
would imagine most of those teams were underdogs because you know,
typically bad teams are the ones that fired their head
coaches mid season. But betters again too. When you look
at Scott Frost, the talent with Nebraska was there. It
(05:27):
was just being held back by some questionable coaching calls
and maybe some motivation. And maybe Nebraska just needs a
different voice in the locker room, because I'll be honest,
a lot of the public is liking Oklahoma because the
narrative is very negative against Nebraska. But when you see
that line move as much as it does now down
to almost ten, maybe we see single digits by Saturday,
(05:50):
it starts to make you think that there's something going
on with Nebraska in this spot. And when you look
at both teams again talent wise, I see a lot
of similarities. Both have you know, transfer quarterbacks. They both
played well. Skyler Thompson has experienced against Oklahoma. To remember,
he played for Texas last year. Five touchdowns, no picks
in that game against the Sooner. So there are some
things to like here. I think the ceiling is higher
(06:11):
with Nebraska without Scott Frost. The floor, of course is lower.
Could be a volatile situation with this interim head coach,
but I feel like that's where the smart money is
starting to flow towards the corn Huskers, and hard to
ignore that there is a game that you have circled
that I can guarantee you will not be moving to
single digits. It would be this Colorado Minnesota game the
(06:32):
Golden Gophers minus twenty seven and a half right now.
But you're rowing the boat? Is that what I have
here going on with you? Jared Smith? I love this
Minnesota team. Very underrated and the Big ten West. I mean,
we've seen Iowa, We've seen Wisconsin lose to Washington State.
We've seen other teams really struggle out of the gate.
(06:52):
Yet Minnesota leads the nation in two very important categories. Brian,
they leave the nation in yards gained and ards allowed
US yards gained or FUS yards allowed for game, most
yards game. Those are pretty two categories to lead the
nation in after two weeks now, Listen, the competition has
been pretty poor. But that being said, the talent is elite.
(07:14):
The offensive backfield, quarterback Tanner Morgan, he's like a seventh
year senior Mohammed Ibraheim. He is very talented. The offensive
line very talented. They've got a tight end prospect brevn
Span forward rising star in NFL mock drafts one of
the best tight end prospects in terms of his Pro
Football Focus grades that I can see so far in
the country. Then we look at Colorado. They are a
(07:35):
bottom feeder in every major offensive and defensive category outside
of the top one hundred basically across the board. So
I just don't see how Minnesota, who beat Colorado by
thirty last year in Boulder, doesn't cover a four touchdown
spread at home in just a god awful spot for
(07:56):
the Boulder. The Boulder boys who they have, they're gonna
be It's gonna be a really rough year for Colorado. Yeah,
are we looking at the next I don't want to,
you know, give someone their pink slip before the university does.
But when we look at Carl, you know, we just
talked about Scott Frost in Nebraska. When you look at
Carl at Colorado, is this the next guy to go? Potentially?
(08:19):
I hope not, because you know, there's a lot of
good coaches losing their jobs unfairly. I think the situation
at Colorado is really tough. And if you want to
say that he's responsible for the departures, the mass exodus
we saw in the transferportal this summer. Then yes, he
probably deserves to lose his job, just because I think
in today's game, in today's college football game, more emphasis
(08:43):
is placed on recruiting than actual game management. How many
really good recruiters in college football have high profile jobs
that have not really excelled in the xs and ohs
part of the game. There's a bunch. So if the
recruiting element to what Carlorel has done is starting to
crumble and boulder, then I do think there's probably grounds
(09:03):
for a divorce. It's count Down to Kickoff presented by
bet MGM Jared Smith. He's the lead betting analyst from
picks wise dot com. Joins us here getting you all
set for Saturday action in college ball. How about Michigan
State at Washington and you might the line is three
at bet MGM and it's like, okay, So Washington's a
(09:24):
home dog. No, no, no, like the Kemi Mutumbo, they
are favored at home. What do you think about the
Huskies favorite in this spot? Jared, Yeah, this is a
So my my radar goes up anytime I see a
unranked team favored against the ranked team. So that's not
it's not like an auto bet. I don't recommend any
(09:45):
trend or any angle to be an auto bet. It's
like a stew. You have to put ingredients in it,
and then if it tastes good after you mix it together,
then you make the bet. The first piece of that
stew is when you see an unranked team l and
again this line open one or two ish, and it
moved through that key number of three, which is the
(10:05):
most important number in the entire betting landscape, especially in football.
And that catches my attention because what it tells me
is there are some smart people that are betting Washington
early and often, and then we start to look at
the handicap. Well, there's a reunion happening in Washington between
Kitlin Dubour and Michael Pennox. These two were fantastic at
(10:26):
Indiana in I don't want to call it a dominant
season by Indiana standards, though I think you can say that.
Now Panics who had some injury problems. Then he transfers
to Washington, gets reunited with his old offensive coordinator, and
this Husky's offenses hum and briant success right top ten
efficiency rating through two games. Again, the quality of opponent
(10:47):
has been weak. They will move up in class this week.
But I really like the matchup on the edge because Washington,
not known for elite talent on the outside, actually has
a very solid group of wide receivers and they are
facing a Michigan State secondary historically bad last year defending
the past, so bad in fact, that Mel Tucker said,
I'm going to coach the secondary this season. It's been
(11:10):
okay so far forty nine and passing defense, but they
faced two MAC teams outside the top seventy in passing efficiency.
So again, I don't want to look too much into
those prior results, but well, I what I will say.
If you look at Peyton Thorne, the quarterback of Michigan State,
when he goes on the road, his completion percentage drops
eleven percent. Yards per tempt drops from nine point four
to seven point seven. Now let's look at some historical numbers. Well,
(11:32):
sparty oh and five in the last thirty five years
in the Pacific time zone. Tough spot from Michigan State here.
That's why the line moved, and I think I'm gonna
roll with that movement. I laid it with the Huskies. Wow,
that's a huge drop eleven completion rate dropping there that
that's enormous from home compared to the road. I love
the stew comparison. By the way, here, what is your
(11:55):
favorite stew? I have to know this. I'm a jumbalaya guy. Yeah,
big jumble like and and I use that reference all
the time because a lot of times you see handicappers
and you know, media outlets that cover gambling, they'll tweet
out a trend or an angle or something, and you know,
some people take that as an immediate open to buy,
run to the window and bet that trend. In reality,
(12:18):
that trend should just be one ingredient in a massive
stew that you cook together when you're handicapping a game,
and it's kind of like a narrative that you weave together.
So you start with the unranked team as a favorite
against the ranked team, and then you start to look
at the matchups individually and what the head coach might
do with the quarterback in the scheme, so it all
fits together. I think for Washington this week, I hope
(12:40):
it tastes good. All Right, we've got one more game
that you've got circled for now, you've got many, and
we'll get to all of them pound down to kickoff
presented by bet MGM on Saturday, three hours before a
kick at noon Eastern time. But for right now, one
more circled and it's a big and it is a
big and we've got b y U against Oregon. The
Ucks are minus three and a half on bed MGM.
(13:03):
The first thing I think of Jared potential let down city.
You gotta avoid the hangover. It's a very emotional win
for the Cougars. I shouldn't call him the Cougars, for
the Cougars of b y U. Last week at home
against Baylor, some craziness and overtime, mythed kicks that all
this mayhem and sues and they win the game. I
(13:24):
wonder if they can keep that same emotional high going
into a hostile and environment over there in Eugene. What
do you think about this game? Fascinating? I think this
is my favorite game of the week to handicap because
I think the line is speaking to me. It's like
a whisper, and then it turned into a dull roar
(13:44):
once I started to break down the actual game itself.
But let's start with the market analysis. The market analysis
tells me this line hasn't moved in three weeks. Again,
we talked about those look aheadlines, the preseason lines that
we digest that again maybe aren't a hundred percent of
a Shian, but they at least give us a jumping
off point to kind of grade where these teams are
after a few games. Well, this line basically hasn't moved
(14:07):
despite what have we seen with the two data points
for each team. Well, b y U just beat Baylor
and dave A. Randa's defense looked at times a little
bit off balance. Meanwhile, Oregon got smoked in a Marquee
spotlight game. And when I say smoked, I mean absolutely dismantled.
And then they beat Eastern Washington, who is a very
(14:29):
average FCS team, by a ton of points. So Oregon's
market sentiment, you would say, is negative, while b y
U increasingly positive, exceeding Oddsmaker expectations. Yet, why hasn't this
line moved an inch towards b y U. It's curious,
and I think it tells me that organ is the
right side here. They've got a twenty game home winning streak,
(14:49):
third longest in FBS. They are a very very difficult opponent,
a much different opponent when they are playing at Austen Stadium.
And again it is tough to grade where Oregon is
because they and up in weight class against Georgia and
then they bullied Eastern Washington. I think this game is
kind of on par with the talent level that Oregon has,
and we're gonna learn a lot more about this Ducks
(15:09):
team and what coach Landing has under the hood. But
bow Knicks his home splits. We talked about Peyton Thorne
terrible on the road compared to home. Well, bow Knicks
is obviously, you would it would make sense that these
very verse, these very volatile quarterbacks, they're better at home
when things are a little more controllable. Completion percentage increases
by eight points. Yards per tempt goes up two yards
(15:30):
six to one touchdown to interception ratio at home. On
the road more picks than touchdowns. So I expect bow
Knicks to play very well. Meanwhile, you mentioned by you
that crazy game they emptied the tank. Really the Gadget
plays the freshman wide receiver who came from out of nowhere.
Chase Roberts had a hundred and twenty two yards on
fifteen targets. He threw a touchdown pass, he caught a
(15:52):
touchdown pass by is gonna be without their two top
receivers again in this game. And the one thing I
look at when i'm, you know, handicapping replacement players one game,
they might not be too big of a drop off,
but now we're getting into the second game. Can b
y Use, you know, undermanned offense, especially on the edge,
(16:12):
overcome those deficiencies very tough to do. And Oregan's front seven,
I think it's very talented. I mean, you know, you
know about Callin Thibodeau last year first round pick. They've
got a lot of other guys that are really strong
pieces on that defensive front. And I think coach Landing
scheme it's new. It's gonna take some time for them
to learn it. But now they've had two games under
their belt. And when you look at b y U
(16:33):
success rate against that really good Baylor front, they couldn't
run the ball only one and a half yards per
rush before contact last week. So I'm worried that b
y Use offense is going to struggle to move it
in this spot. And I think Oregon's offense feels a
little more comfortable in Eugene. And that's why I think
I like the Ducks in this spot. I love it.
It's a huge matchup. By the way, on Saturday, we're
(16:56):
not gonna give it to you right now. Think about
Jared Smith. He's doing a strip to right now. You know,
it's a little bit like nobody wants to bad visual.
But we're saving one four Saturday, three hours before noon
eastern kickoff. I'll tell you this, Jared, if you can't
name the nickname of either of these two teams that
(17:18):
you have circled, I wouldn't call you a bad college
football fan. You know, if you look at something we
just did b y U versus Oregon, if you said, hey,
what's Oregon's nickname? Or it was gonna be like the Ducks.
So you've got an FCS game where I don't know
if everyone's gonna know the nicknames of these teams, but
you know the cash baby, and if you're on the
right line, if you're on the right side of things,
(17:40):
it's all that it means. It means that you are
cashing in. But I'm looking forward to that tomorrow. It's
gonna be a lot of fun. Listen. I mean, I
know you guys have been doing a bunch of shows
and do a great job at Fox Sports Tradio. But
I'm having a blast in this show with you guys.
It's a three hour party and I'm bringing I'm bringing
the nachos, I'm bringing the chips, I'm bringing the hot dogs,
the burgers. You guys bring the beer. Will be be
(18:00):
in good shape. Absolutely meant the jumbalaya. Is that a
like a pregame? You know that takes a lot of time. Yeah? Yeah,
but bring that, bring that in. I might order that.
How about that? I might have that ordered and delivered.
I don't think, let's be honest, I'm spending way too
much time handicapp in college football. Hey, nobody got time
to cook up at jumbalaya. Yeah, I hear you on
(18:20):
that Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. It's on
Fox Sports Radio. Check us out three hours before kickoff.
So let's say nine am until noon on the East coast,
and you do the conversion rate if you're somewhere else
in the country. Let's say you're on the West coast, Well,
it would be six am to nine am. You have
that nine am kickoff time. Be what Jared Smith. You
heard all of his great analysis yours truly, that's me,
(18:43):
Brian No and also our Penn State all American Rich
orn Berger will do the three man we've so make
sure you check us out on Saturday for that looking
forward to it. Hey earn a fifty dollar bonus by
signing into bet MGM and clicking on refer a friend
to invite a friend, and in just a few simple steps,
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(19:04):
Bet MGM, the king of sports books. All right, time
to talk NFL with our guy, Crack Bill Crackenburger, sports
handicapper from crack wins dot com. Crack and before we
get into ball here, tell us something about yourself. Let's
start it off with a fun fact. I know you
love Home Sweet Home by Motley Crewe anything, music, food, uh, exercising, habits, anything?
(19:31):
What do you have for us, crack exercising habits? I
don't know. It was the first thing that off the
top of my head. I don't even I don't even
speak to anyone named Jim, never mind go to a
gym um. But yeah, actually no, but I mean you
you'd be surprised by some of my habits though, Um,
I do like going out to eat. I like to
(19:51):
bring all my buddies out to eat. Friends, family real
important to me. Uh But let me tell you something
that people don't know about me. I'll give you a
weird habit. If it was like three things, one of
the things would be I love going to cemeteries. I
love putting. I like to I like to know where
I'm gonna put the bookmaker. But uh no, but seriously, though,
(20:12):
I I do like going to two cemeteries. It says
something have it of mind. Whenever I'm in l A
there I'll go to where you know Westwood or wheere
Marilyn Monroe and uh you know, uh Tony, but wherever
all the you know, all these bigs. I like going to,
like you know, celebrity graves. And then I also like
going to even where my my family have some family
buried and it's a real peaceful time. It's kind of
(20:33):
a meditational time for me. So I do that, I
believe it or not. I probably do that at least
once or twice a month that people wouldn't know about me.
So that's totally off, totally off subject here. So it
reminds me of the old school movie The Crow where
it's a long time ago, but the main uh actor
(20:54):
in that that that was this thing you'd always go
to the graveyards, that Brandon safest place on Earth. Okay, yeah,
but anyway, I'll transition to another movie here. You're a
fan of the movie Rounders, the card playing giving to
my I put a top twenty five on Twitter. It
was in there and it should be. It's it's moved
(21:15):
up to the top ten. There's not a scene that movie.
I don't know. That's awesome. Well, I would refer to Rounders.
It got me thinking of that movie based on you Crack,
because there's a line in the movie that says, for
a guy who don't play cards, you spend a lot
of time in card rooms. And so for a guy
like you who loves to bet unders, you're going on
(21:36):
the over heavy in a couple of games here this week.
Let's start it off with one of the Monday night games.
We've got a Monday Night not double header, like a
staggered header. I don't know what they're doing over there,
but one of the games, the nightcap is the Eagles
hosting the Vikings You're all over the over on this one.
Crack I am. I I bet the over on this
(21:57):
game Monday morning. Um, there's still a couple of good
numbers here on the first half. Two. I am in
Atlantic City right now and I'm planning to see if
I can grab a couple of the twenty four is
on the first half. UH to go over twenty four,
But I'll wind up going because it's only a small
place that I want to take some small bet, so
I wind up going over twenty four and a half
(22:18):
to I just I just think that the Eagles in
this situation that last week can see all the points
they scored. And I think that Minnesota, you guys know
from doing our show on Sunday, I was all over
Cousins on the you know, UH doing good there. I
bet I bet everything on all different overs for him
and and just a team itself there. Look at I
(22:40):
have a future on them. UH at fifty five to one,
UH to win the Super Bowl, and I'll tell you
it's about twenty to one. Now. I'm not saying they're
gonna win the Super Bowl. I'm saying is I think
they have an explosive offense under this new coaching system.
I think that they're gonna let Cousins really throw the
ball there and air it out and um, you know
the first game they kind of slowed it down a
(23:02):
little bit they had that lead against against Green Bay.
But I I do like the over in this game.
I think it's gonna be a lot of points generated
on more than a football. Yeah. And there's another game
you like the over as well, Denver and Houston, So
Denver hosting that game. It's at forty six right now,
the total at bed MGM, Why are you on the
over in this one crowd? You know, as we speak,
(23:24):
it's unbelievable. Under my I have a live odd service
which I pay six dars a month. Four as we speak,
that game is getting hit to the under. So everyone
looks like it's actually right now at one, two, three, four, five,
six at nine shops of the twelve that I have
that I followed, including MGM, just got hit on the
(23:44):
under forty five and a half. It got hit on
the under. Now that maybe just be an overreaction to
the over forty three and a half. It opened up
forty three and a half and forty four and I
took over forty four there and over forty four and
a half for a little peanut, and now it's just
uh maybe um, it could be some opposite play. It
could be some people in middling, which I notice a
(24:05):
lot that happens now. Honestly, Uh, these guys that middle,
I don't know how your middle totals. I know a
lot of people that went broke trying to middle and
what that means in case anyone doesn't know, you're going
over a certain number and then when it moves, you're
going under a certain number. But I think a lot
of the amateurs and rookies don't realize the value of
(24:25):
the actual point or two points that the middle. You're
actually laying negative EV and you have a negative EV
bet once you place that middle. So I see that
happening more and more the last two years with the
under thirty crowd wanting to get in this and wanting
to middle and scalp. It's, you know, it's basically arbitrage.
But a lot of times they have to know the
(24:45):
value of the certain numbers in the certain sports they're
they're betting. And I think that doesn't really happen as
often as you as they don't really put that into
their into their equation and and it hurts them. Quick
follow up to that crack again, Bill Crakenburger, sports handicapper
from Craik Queens dot com. Here with us, Um, is
(25:06):
there a number where you would suggest middling? Let's say
it gets to I don't know. You have a bet
before the game and then you get live odds. Is
it seven points? Is it eight points? What's the point
number where you would consider suggesting someone should it's a
great they're on a side I could see middling. Listen, Um,
a buddy of mine, which I don't, I didn't do
(25:28):
a look ahead to the second week. So a buddy
of mine who's also on Fox by the way, um
he does some Fox stuff. So Warren Sharp calls me
up and says, hey, um, the second week in the
NFL Buffalo is minus seven at a couple of different
sports books. I think the minus seven is a very
good bet, minus seven minus twenty. So I said, okay, Warren,
(25:49):
I'll bet that. So it's for a couple of times
on the minus seven, and now it's ten. I'll be blunt.
Um after whenever you get something like this happening on TV,
the and I call it the over reaction. Buffalo had
a great game against the Rams. Of course, we know
Tennessee lost out right to the Giants. So here you
have a fickle public that's only looking one way at Buffalo,
(26:11):
not looking at Tennessee at all. The game moved to ten.
I'll tell you what, I am tempted to buy back
my maybe not my two dimes, but at least a
dime of the bed. That's a thousand dollars on Tennessee
here to have a minus seven and a plus ten,
which are great numbers. By the way, seven it's the
second keyest number in in the NFL, three being first seven.
(26:31):
But um so ten is a is a is a
really good number two. So I'm actually thinking about doing
that now, going to talk about that. There's no totals
I will I will ever do that on there are
some sides around the number three and around the number seven,
So that's the only thing I would consider middling. If
I get over movement, or if I get enough movement
to make it worth it for me, I'll be happy
(26:53):
to lay you know, um two and a half and
and take four. I have some season games that I
put that I I bet that I'm literally I only
bet them to middle. I found like pickum minus thirty
and plus four, um minus three and plus six and
a half. I mean, just some six six middles. I
(27:15):
only bet them the middle because I didn't know much
about what that line was going to be. On my
look aheadlines. This is week to five, eight ten, I
I bet week sixteen. I mean there's so many things
that I bet them just based on middles, which I
normally don't do. But I don't know what's gonna happen
by that time. Now you look at the Cowboys here,
I think this is an interesting take by you. No
(27:37):
one likes the Cowboys at this stage. They lost Dak Prescott,
they lost Tyrant Smith, their left tackle, no more Marii Cooper,
Michael Gallup isn't back. It's just like no, no, no,
no no. If you had a stamp, its just no, no, no,
no no. Things are not looking good for Dallas. But
it's only one week in. There's seven and a half
point dogs at home against the Bengals, so not just
(27:57):
this week to game crack, but they're season Outlook are
you looking at the Cowboys a little bit more um
optimistically than the public is the entire public is against Dallas.
I'll just tell you this. I did not bet on
this game. I probably won't bet on the game, but
I will not be laying seven and a half points.
But Cincinnati on the road, I can tell you that.
(28:19):
I know they had a bad game last week. Borrow
had a ton of turnovers and and uh, you know,
Pittsburgh just just stepped up there. Well, I say stepped up.
The end of that game was amazing. How many uh
you know, how long it went, and the missfield goals
and missed opportunities. The game is actually an exciting game.
But um, I just look at things differently, and I
(28:41):
look at things from the bookmakers side. You can guarantee
by kickoff the bookmakers will be rooting for Dallas. So, uh,
we have a new quarterback here stepping in a lot
of injuries there to the line in different positions, I understand.
But that's why you have the overinflated line. If you
had a look aheadline here, if you bet this game
(29:01):
one week ago, literally before the first week of the season,
you could bet every single week at most of the
sports books the look aheadline, Cincinnati was a two and
a half point favorite. Now they're seven and a half.
I don't know if a quarterback can be worth going
through the three, going through the seven and make it
in the seven and a half. I don't know any
(29:22):
quarterback that could be a five point move like that,
I don't think. So it's always interesting to me, Crack
where you think about the Bengals. For instance, they make
it to the super Bowl and they had a bad
Week one performance. Most people think, oh, well, that's just
gonna automatically correct itself in week two. And it's always
interesting to me to sort of forecast what will correct
(29:44):
itself and what won't, what will remain similar. I don't
expect Burrow to turn it over as much, but you
know what I mean, A lot of people think it's
just an automatic, like, oh yeah, Bengals are gonna be
world beaters this week. It's like it doesn't always self
correct itself from one week to the next. Absolutely not,
especially this first to the second week. There's over This
(30:04):
is the overreaction week. There's not one week of the
year that has overreaction like Week two in the NFL.
So I'm finding that all across the board. By the way,
there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff that's
overreactions UH from week from week one to week two. Um,
but this this game is probably number one though out
of those games, this is probably number one. Do I
(30:27):
expect sincen? I hated to win the game, Yes, but
I wouldn't be surprised, believe it or not, if Dallas
wins the game. It's our sports handicapper from crack wins
dot com, Bill Krackenburger. It's countdown to Kickoff, presented here
by bet MGM one more. Let's go into this one
a prop. I love the prop bets. You are looking
at a certain Gang Green quarterback over here, Mr Joe Flacco.
(30:50):
What do you see in your crystal ball? Regarding Flacco
early in the week now, only a couple of the
sports UH sports sites have have this up, But I'm
looking at Flacco under there's a rogue to nine and
a half that I see, UH to twenty six and
a half under minus of dollar thirty. I am looking
(31:13):
to go under. Listen, I don't really like betting overs
on any props because you're a winner until you're a
loser by betting under. But I can see more and more.
I'm evolving so more and more. I will bet overs
on certain things. I bet over on the homes on completions,
and I got burned on that unfortunately because of the
(31:35):
big turn over there that really hurt me in in
the in the fourth quarter because he would have been
throwing the ball. We would have won that one easy,
but however that happens. So so like this particular week,
I'm starting out two and two on props. I mean,
props is my bread and butter. Though literally last week
destroyed props um for my guys and for me and
we just killed them. So but this particular week, looking
(31:57):
to bet some unders. I have like six or seven circled.
Hopefully we could talk about them on Sunday. Right now,
I'm looking at Flacco under on his yards and I'm
gonna be heading to some of the casinos in town
and and like I like to say, terrorizing the sports
books here right might I got off air with you?
Did they have I remember another movie. Let's let's cap
it with the movie here Ali. You know when Will Smith,
(32:20):
who's playing Muhammad Ali, He's like the chap is here?
Did they do that for you? When you walk into
these casinos to throw down major cash on games or props.
It matters what sports book I go to. Some of
them will will will always go go in the back
room and get that extra pair of underwear they have out.
But um, but but usually usually I'll go in and
(32:44):
I have a really good relationship with the books and
the bookmakers and the guys that are behind the counters.
They're really good to me. But I'll tell you right now,
like especially when I'm in Vegas, it's that individual book
that's book in the games. They don't want my actions.
They don't want me in there. No, no, of course not.
I'm I'm a winning sports butter. I'm gonna take a
chunk of money out of there by the end of
the year. They don't want me in there. They don't.
(33:05):
You have to really have a good bookmaker that's in
there that says, hey, I want to know what cracks on.
Don't want to overmove whatever he's on and put the
customer based on the opposite side. It's not the way
they think. A lot a lot of them think, hey,
let's just we want all square sharp money. I'm sorry,
square money, and we don't really want any sharp money
at all. We want the we want the you know,
the public, just betting it overs and overs and favorites
(33:27):
and stuff and but overall though I have a good,
pretty good relationship with the books and the bookmakers. Awesome stuff. Well, hey,
this is the type of stuff you're gonna hear on Sunday's.
Check us out this Sunday as well. Fox Sports Radios.
Count Down to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. It's a
three hour pregame show, so whenever kickoff is for you,
(33:48):
if you're on the East Coast and it's that one
pm Eastern kickoff time, we start at ten am your time,
right three hours right before kickoff on the West coast,
you get that ten am kickoff time. We started seven
an A m Crack will have many plays for you,
many winners also, Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran, and
myself Brian No will be with you for three hours.
(34:10):
Make sure you tune in on Sundays as well. Be
sure to check out the new looking features in the
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Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bat MGM, the
King of sports books. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win. Three is
(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by Bett mg A. We're live from
your tail game. Here's Brian No, no, no, everybody, what's
going on? Welcome to Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM.
(00:45):
What's gonna happen on the podcast today? I'll tell you
what's gonna happen on the podcast today. We've got Jared Smith,
lead betting analyst from picks wise dot com. We're talking
college ball with Jared, and then we have our NFL
s more agus sport with Bill Krackenburger, sports handicapper from
crack wins dot com. We'll get you all set for
(01:06):
Week two in the NFL. By the way, new users,
download the bet mgm app today and use code countdown
for a special offer. That's code countdown in the bet
mgm app. Let's welcome in Jared Smith, our college football guru.
I would like, Jared if we did not discuss anything
Notre Dame related. I'm from South Bend and I'm still
(01:28):
licking my wounds. That's a tough one, and I'll be honest.
I I think I hope you get that win this week.
We thought it was gonna be last week. Um, eventually,
I'm confident Marcus Freeman will get a win. I'm not
sure if this is the week though, man that I
hope the three to the season, oh and four overall
for Marcus Freeman. Two is an under and you know
(01:49):
two is as a favorite. I mean, listen, I I
know you don't want to talk about it, but you
know you'll let the genie out of the bottle by
leading the podcasts, So there's really no avoiding it. I
think there's still a lot of positives with with what's
happening in South ben I just think it's been a
tough circumstance with the two games that they started with,
(02:10):
you know, the ball game last year and of course
Ohio State this year, and then you throw in a
Marshall team that obviously no one expected them to win
the game. But they just I'm concerned. I think with
the offensive line. That would be the one thing that
really concerns me. Not getting any push against Marshall in
that game. Um, but besides that, there were still some
opportunities for Notre Dame to win that game. But now
(02:31):
you've got a quarterback issue. You're right, maybe we should
just leave this one on set. Listen, man, I'll stay
real fast. I'm with you. The offensive line was supposed
to be the strength of the team. They can't run
the ball on you. That's very disappointing. And and and
and when we talk about a lot of these games,
you know, the offensive line and the trenches, especially when
you're talking about a have and I have not. I
(02:52):
don't want to take anything away from Marshall, but the
talent level is just that the gap is wide. That's
the first place you look. If the and we talked
about in Iowa couple weeks ago, again South Dakota say
they couldn't run the ball against the lesser opponents. So
that is something to keep in mind. If they can't
run the ball and their quarterback is you know, limited,
because now it's a backup, especially limited, it's gonna be
(03:13):
struggle city for Marcus Freeman's bunch this year. Well, at
least Marcus Freeman is still employed. We can't say the
same thing about Scott Frost at Nebraska. He gets the
heave ho. It was that bad against Georgia Southern that
they're like, it's it's over. We can't wait till October
one and the buyout is cut in half. You're gone
right now. But Nebraska hosting Oklahoma, Nebraska. We're looking at
(03:38):
the line at bet MGM, it's a plus ten and
a half. What do you think about Nebraska, who has
just been a smolder ring, just decaying mess. Are you
on the corn Huskers this weekend? Jared? Yeah. And when
you look at the preseason look aheadline, and again you know,
these lines are created months prior and they're based off
(03:59):
of our ratings from last year, so it's not you know,
it's not an exact science, but Nebraska was just a
three point underdog in that look aheadline game of the
year offseason lines that some of the bigger sports books
will put out again very early in the summer. But
when you flash forward a few weeks here, not a
lot has changed. Besides Scott Frost being removed. Oklahoma has
(04:22):
played two cupcakes, you tup and Kent State. Brent Venables
is about to coach in his first true road game
as the headman um in Norman. But not a lot
else really has changed here yet. This line has gone
from Nebraska plus three it actually opened at sixteen, and
Nebraska money has come in hot and heavy to the market.
The smart betters have certainly liked what they've seen because
(04:43):
of the upside that we're going to see. I think
with Mickey Joseph, who's the offensive guru, wide receiver coach,
passing game coordinator, that's gonna take over the interim tag
um in Lincoln, and obviously the home game being the
big Noons showcase spot, I think we'll add some juice
to this game. But when you look at just the
trend of firing a head coach or departing with your
(05:05):
head coach mid season, well, there's really not much to
to glean off of that teams in the game after
that last year it happened twelve times, six and six
against the spread, four and eight straight up, and you
would imagine most of those teams were underdogs because you know,
typically bad teams are the ones that fired their head
coaches mid season. But betters again too. When you look
at Scott Frost, the talent with Nebraska was there. It
(05:27):
was just being held back by some questionable coaching calls
and maybe some motivation. And maybe Nebraska just needs a
different voice in the locker room, because I'll be honest,
a lot of the public is liking Oklahoma because the
narrative is very negative against Nebraska. But when you see
that line move as much as it does now down
to almost ten, maybe we see single digits by Saturday,
(05:50):
it starts to make you think that there's something going
on with Nebraska in this spot. And when you look
at both teams again talent wise, I see a lot
of similarities. Both have you know, transfer quarterbacks. They both
played well. Skyler Thompson has experienced against Oklahoma. To remember,
he played for Texas last year. Five touchdowns, no picks
in that game against the Sooner. So there are some
things to like here. I think the ceiling is higher
(06:11):
with Nebraska without Scott Frost. The floor, of course is lower.
Could be a volatile situation with this interim head coach,
but I feel like that's where the smart money is
starting to flow towards the corn Huskers, and hard to
ignore that there is a game that you have circled
that I can guarantee you will not be moving to
single digits. It would be this Colorado Minnesota game the
(06:32):
Golden Gophers minus twenty seven and a half right now.
But you're rowing the boat? Is that what I have
here going on with you? Jared Smith? I love this
Minnesota team. Very underrated and the Big ten West. I mean,
we've seen Iowa, We've seen Wisconsin lose to Washington State.
We've seen other teams really struggle out of the gate.
(06:52):
Yet Minnesota leads the nation in two very important categories. Brian,
they leave the nation in yards gained and ards allowed
US yards gained or FUS yards allowed for game, most
yards game. Those are pretty two categories to lead the
nation in after two weeks now, Listen, the competition has
been pretty poor. But that being said, the talent is elite.
(07:14):
The offensive backfield, quarterback Tanner Morgan, he's like a seventh
year senior Mohammed Ibraheim. He is very talented. The offensive
line very talented. They've got a tight end prospect brevn
Span forward rising star in NFL mock drafts one of
the best tight end prospects in terms of his Pro
Football Focus grades that I can see so far in
the country. Then we look at Colorado. They are a
(07:35):
bottom feeder in every major offensive and defensive category outside
of the top one hundred basically across the board. So
I just don't see how Minnesota, who beat Colorado by
thirty last year in Boulder, doesn't cover a four touchdown
spread at home in just a god awful spot for
(07:56):
the Boulder. The Boulder boys who they have, they're gonna
be It's gonna be a really rough year for Colorado. Yeah,
are we looking at the next I don't want to,
you know, give someone their pink slip before the university does.
But when we look at Carl, you know, we just
talked about Scott Frost in Nebraska. When you look at
Carl at Colorado, is this the next guy to go? Potentially?
(08:19):
I hope not, because you know, there's a lot of
good coaches losing their jobs unfairly. I think the situation
at Colorado is really tough. And if you want to
say that he's responsible for the departures, the mass exodus
we saw in the transferportal this summer. Then yes, he
probably deserves to lose his job, just because I think
in today's game, in today's college football game, more emphasis
(08:43):
is placed on recruiting than actual game management. How many
really good recruiters in college football have high profile jobs
that have not really excelled in the xs and ohs
part of the game. There's a bunch. So if the
recruiting element to what Carlorel has done is starting to
crumble and boulder, then I do think there's probably grounds
(09:03):
for a divorce. It's count Down to Kickoff presented by
bet MGM Jared Smith. He's the lead betting analyst from
picks wise dot com. Joins us here getting you all
set for Saturday action in college ball. How about Michigan
State at Washington and you might the line is three
at bet MGM and it's like, okay, So Washington's a
(09:24):
home dog. No, no, no, like the Kemi Mutumbo, they
are favored at home. What do you think about the
Huskies favorite in this spot? Jared, Yeah, this is a
So my my radar goes up anytime I see a
unranked team favored against the ranked team. So that's not
it's not like an auto bet. I don't recommend any
(09:45):
trend or any angle to be an auto bet. It's
like a stew. You have to put ingredients in it,
and then if it tastes good after you mix it together,
then you make the bet. The first piece of that
stew is when you see an unranked team l and
again this line open one or two ish, and it
moved through that key number of three, which is the
(10:05):
most important number in the entire betting landscape, especially in football.
And that catches my attention because what it tells me
is there are some smart people that are betting Washington
early and often, and then we start to look at
the handicap. Well, there's a reunion happening in Washington between
Kitlin Dubour and Michael Pennox. These two were fantastic at
(10:26):
Indiana in I don't want to call it a dominant
season by Indiana standards, though I think you can say that.
Now Panics who had some injury problems. Then he transfers
to Washington, gets reunited with his old offensive coordinator, and
this Husky's offenses hum and briant success right top ten
efficiency rating through two games. Again, the quality of opponent
(10:47):
has been weak. They will move up in class this week.
But I really like the matchup on the edge because Washington,
not known for elite talent on the outside, actually has
a very solid group of wide receivers and they are
facing a Michigan State secondary historically bad last year defending
the past, so bad in fact, that Mel Tucker said,
I'm going to coach the secondary this season. It's been
(11:10):
okay so far forty nine and passing defense, but they
faced two MAC teams outside the top seventy in passing efficiency.
So again, I don't want to look too much into
those prior results, but well, I what I will say.
If you look at Peyton Thorne, the quarterback of Michigan State,
when he goes on the road, his completion percentage drops
eleven percent. Yards per tempt drops from nine point four
to seven point seven. Now let's look at some historical numbers. Well,
(11:32):
sparty oh and five in the last thirty five years
in the Pacific time zone. Tough spot from Michigan State here.
That's why the line moved, and I think I'm gonna
roll with that movement. I laid it with the Huskies. Wow,
that's a huge drop eleven completion rate dropping there that
that's enormous from home compared to the road. I love
the stew comparison. By the way, here, what is your
(11:55):
favorite stew? I have to know this. I'm a jumbalaya guy. Yeah,
big jumble like and and I use that reference all
the time because a lot of times you see handicappers
and you know, media outlets that cover gambling, they'll tweet
out a trend or an angle or something, and you know,
some people take that as an immediate open to buy,
run to the window and bet that trend. In reality,
(12:18):
that trend should just be one ingredient in a massive
stew that you cook together when you're handicapping a game,
and it's kind of like a narrative that you weave together.
So you start with the unranked team as a favorite
against the ranked team, and then you start to look
at the matchups individually and what the head coach might
do with the quarterback in the scheme, so it all
fits together. I think for Washington this week, I hope
(12:40):
it tastes good. All Right, we've got one more game
that you've got circled for now, you've got many, and
we'll get to all of them pound down to kickoff
presented by bet MGM on Saturday, three hours before a
kick at noon Eastern time. But for right now, one
more circled and it's a big and it is a
big and we've got b y U against Oregon. The
Ucks are minus three and a half on bed MGM.
(13:03):
The first thing I think of Jared potential let down city.
You gotta avoid the hangover. It's a very emotional win
for the Cougars. I shouldn't call him the Cougars, for
the Cougars of b y U. Last week at home
against Baylor, some craziness and overtime, mythed kicks that all
this mayhem and sues and they win the game. I
(13:24):
wonder if they can keep that same emotional high going
into a hostile and environment over there in Eugene. What
do you think about this game? Fascinating? I think this
is my favorite game of the week to handicap because
I think the line is speaking to me. It's like
a whisper, and then it turned into a dull roar
(13:44):
once I started to break down the actual game itself.
But let's start with the market analysis. The market analysis
tells me this line hasn't moved in three weeks. Again,
we talked about those look aheadlines, the preseason lines that
we digest that again maybe aren't a hundred percent of
a Shian, but they at least give us a jumping
off point to kind of grade where these teams are
after a few games. Well, this line basically hasn't moved
(14:07):
despite what have we seen with the two data points
for each team. Well, b y U just beat Baylor
and dave A. Randa's defense looked at times a little
bit off balance. Meanwhile, Oregon got smoked in a Marquee
spotlight game. And when I say smoked, I mean absolutely dismantled.
And then they beat Eastern Washington, who is a very
(14:29):
average FCS team, by a ton of points. So Oregon's
market sentiment, you would say, is negative, while b y
U increasingly positive, exceeding Oddsmaker expectations. Yet, why hasn't this
line moved an inch towards b y U. It's curious,
and I think it tells me that organ is the
right side here. They've got a twenty game home winning streak,
(14:49):
third longest in FBS. They are a very very difficult opponent,
a much different opponent when they are playing at Austen Stadium.
And again it is tough to grade where Oregon is
because they and up in weight class against Georgia and
then they bullied Eastern Washington. I think this game is
kind of on par with the talent level that Oregon has,
and we're gonna learn a lot more about this Ducks
(15:09):
team and what coach Landing has under the hood. But
bow Knicks his home splits. We talked about Peyton Thorne
terrible on the road compared to home. Well, bow Knicks
is obviously, you would it would make sense that these
very verse, these very volatile quarterbacks, they're better at home
when things are a little more controllable. Completion percentage increases
by eight points. Yards per tempt goes up two yards
(15:30):
six to one touchdown to interception ratio at home. On
the road more picks than touchdowns. So I expect bow
Knicks to play very well. Meanwhile, you mentioned by you
that crazy game they emptied the tank. Really the Gadget
plays the freshman wide receiver who came from out of nowhere.
Chase Roberts had a hundred and twenty two yards on
fifteen targets. He threw a touchdown pass, he caught a
(15:52):
touchdown pass by is gonna be without their two top
receivers again in this game. And the one thing I
look at when i'm, you know, handicapping replacement players one game,
they might not be too big of a drop off,
but now we're getting into the second game. Can b
y Use, you know, undermanned offense, especially on the edge,
(16:12):
overcome those deficiencies very tough to do. And Oregan's front seven,
I think it's very talented. I mean, you know, you
know about Callin Thibodeau last year first round pick. They've
got a lot of other guys that are really strong
pieces on that defensive front. And I think coach Landing
scheme it's new. It's gonna take some time for them
to learn it. But now they've had two games under
their belt. And when you look at b y U
(16:33):
success rate against that really good Baylor front, they couldn't
run the ball only one and a half yards per
rush before contact last week. So I'm worried that b
y Use offense is going to struggle to move it
in this spot. And I think Oregon's offense feels a
little more comfortable in Eugene. And that's why I think
I like the Ducks in this spot. I love it.
It's a huge matchup. By the way, on Saturday, we're
(16:56):
not gonna give it to you right now. Think about
Jared Smith. He's doing a strip to right now. You know,
it's a little bit like nobody wants to bad visual.
But we're saving one four Saturday, three hours before noon
eastern kickoff. I'll tell you this, Jared, if you can't
name the nickname of either of these two teams that
(17:18):
you have circled, I wouldn't call you a bad college
football fan. You know, if you look at something we
just did b y U versus Oregon, if you said, hey,
what's Oregon's nickname? Or it was gonna be like the Ducks.
So you've got an FCS game where I don't know
if everyone's gonna know the nicknames of these teams, but
you know the cash baby, and if you're on the
right line, if you're on the right side of things,
(17:40):
it's all that it means. It means that you are
cashing in. But I'm looking forward to that tomorrow. It's
gonna be a lot of fun. Listen. I mean, I
know you guys have been doing a bunch of shows
and do a great job at Fox Sports Tradio. But
I'm having a blast in this show with you guys.
It's a three hour party and I'm bringing I'm bringing
the nachos, I'm bringing the chips, I'm bringing the hot dogs,
the burgers. You guys bring the beer. Will be be
(18:00):
in good shape. Absolutely meant the jumbalaya. Is that a
like a pregame? You know that takes a lot of time. Yeah? Yeah,
but bring that, bring that in. I might order that.
How about that? I might have that ordered and delivered.
I don't think, let's be honest, I'm spending way too
much time handicapp in college football. Hey, nobody got time
to cook up at jumbalaya. Yeah, I hear you on
(18:20):
that Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. It's on
Fox Sports Radio. Check us out three hours before kickoff.
So let's say nine am until noon on the East coast,
and you do the conversion rate if you're somewhere else
in the country. Let's say you're on the West coast, Well,
it would be six am to nine am. You have
that nine am kickoff time. Be what Jared Smith. You
heard all of his great analysis yours truly, that's me,
(18:43):
Brian No and also our Penn State all American Rich
orn Berger will do the three man we've so make
sure you check us out on Saturday for that looking
forward to it. Hey earn a fifty dollar bonus by
signing into bet MGM and clicking on refer a friend
to invite a friend, and in just a few simple steps,
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(19:04):
Bet MGM, the king of sports books. All right, time
to talk NFL with our guy, Crack Bill Crackenburger, sports
handicapper from crack wins dot com. Crack and before we
get into ball here, tell us something about yourself. Let's
start it off with a fun fact. I know you
love Home Sweet Home by Motley Crewe anything, music, food, uh, exercising, habits, anything?
(19:31):
What do you have for us, crack exercising habits? I
don't know. It was the first thing that off the
top of my head. I don't even I don't even
speak to anyone named Jim, never mind go to a
gym um. But yeah, actually no, but I mean you
you'd be surprised by some of my habits though, Um,
I do like going out to eat. I like to
(19:51):
bring all my buddies out to eat. Friends, family real
important to me. Uh But let me tell you something
that people don't know about me. I'll give you a
weird habit. If it was like three things, one of
the things would be I love going to cemeteries. I
love putting. I like to I like to know where
I'm gonna put the bookmaker. But uh no, but seriously, though,
(20:12):
I I do like going to two cemeteries. It says
something have it of mind. Whenever I'm in l A
there I'll go to where you know Westwood or wheere
Marilyn Monroe and uh you know, uh Tony, but wherever
all the you know, all these bigs. I like going to,
like you know, celebrity graves. And then I also like
going to even where my my family have some family
buried and it's a real peaceful time. It's kind of
(20:33):
a meditational time for me. So I do that, I
believe it or not. I probably do that at least
once or twice a month that people wouldn't know about me.
So that's totally off, totally off subject here. So it
reminds me of the old school movie The Crow where
it's a long time ago, but the main uh actor
(20:54):
in that that that was this thing you'd always go
to the graveyards, that Brandon safest place on Earth. Okay, yeah,
but anyway, I'll transition to another movie here. You're a
fan of the movie Rounders, the card playing giving to
my I put a top twenty five on Twitter. It
was in there and it should be. It's it's moved
(21:15):
up to the top ten. There's not a scene that movie.
I don't know. That's awesome. Well, I would refer to Rounders.
It got me thinking of that movie based on you Crack,
because there's a line in the movie that says, for
a guy who don't play cards, you spend a lot
of time in card rooms. And so for a guy
like you who loves to bet unders, you're going on
(21:36):
the over heavy in a couple of games here this week.
Let's start it off with one of the Monday night games.
We've got a Monday Night not double header, like a
staggered header. I don't know what they're doing over there,
but one of the games, the nightcap is the Eagles
hosting the Vikings You're all over the over on this one.
Crack I am. I I bet the over on this
(21:57):
game Monday morning. Um, there's still a couple of good
numbers here on the first half. Two. I am in
Atlantic City right now and I'm planning to see if
I can grab a couple of the twenty four is
on the first half. UH to go over twenty four,
But I'll wind up going because it's only a small
place that I want to take some small bet, so
I wind up going over twenty four and a half
(22:18):
to I just I just think that the Eagles in
this situation that last week can see all the points
they scored. And I think that Minnesota, you guys know
from doing our show on Sunday, I was all over
Cousins on the you know, UH doing good there. I
bet I bet everything on all different overs for him
and and just a team itself there. Look at I
(22:40):
have a future on them. UH at fifty five to one,
UH to win the Super Bowl, and I'll tell you
it's about twenty to one. Now. I'm not saying they're
gonna win the Super Bowl. I'm saying is I think
they have an explosive offense under this new coaching system.
I think that they're gonna let Cousins really throw the
ball there and air it out and um, you know
the first game they kind of slowed it down a
(23:02):
little bit they had that lead against against Green Bay.
But I I do like the over in this game.
I think it's gonna be a lot of points generated
on more than a football. Yeah. And there's another game
you like the over as well, Denver and Houston, So
Denver hosting that game. It's at forty six right now,
the total at bed MGM, Why are you on the
over in this one crowd? You know, as we speak,
(23:24):
it's unbelievable. Under my I have a live odd service
which I pay six dars a month. Four as we speak,
that game is getting hit to the under. So everyone
looks like it's actually right now at one, two, three, four, five,
six at nine shops of the twelve that I have
that I followed, including MGM, just got hit on the
(23:44):
under forty five and a half. It got hit on
the under. Now that maybe just be an overreaction to
the over forty three and a half. It opened up
forty three and a half and forty four and I
took over forty four there and over forty four and
a half for a little peanut, and now it's just
uh maybe um, it could be some opposite play. It
could be some people in middling, which I notice a
(24:05):
lot that happens now. Honestly, Uh, these guys that middle,
I don't know how your middle totals. I know a
lot of people that went broke trying to middle and
what that means in case anyone doesn't know, you're going
over a certain number and then when it moves, you're
going under a certain number. But I think a lot
of the amateurs and rookies don't realize the value of
(24:25):
the actual point or two points that the middle. You're
actually laying negative EV and you have a negative EV
bet once you place that middle. So I see that
happening more and more the last two years with the
under thirty crowd wanting to get in this and wanting
to middle and scalp. It's, you know, it's basically arbitrage.
But a lot of times they have to know the
(24:45):
value of the certain numbers in the certain sports they're
they're betting. And I think that doesn't really happen as
often as you as they don't really put that into
their into their equation and and it hurts them. Quick
follow up to that crack again, Bill Crakenburger, sports handicapper
from Craik Queens dot com. Here with us, Um, is
(25:06):
there a number where you would suggest middling? Let's say
it gets to I don't know. You have a bet
before the game and then you get live odds. Is
it seven points? Is it eight points? What's the point
number where you would consider suggesting someone should it's a
great they're on a side I could see middling. Listen, Um,
a buddy of mine, which I don't, I didn't do
(25:28):
a look ahead to the second week. So a buddy
of mine who's also on Fox by the way, um
he does some Fox stuff. So Warren Sharp calls me
up and says, hey, um, the second week in the
NFL Buffalo is minus seven at a couple of different
sports books. I think the minus seven is a very
good bet, minus seven minus twenty. So I said, okay, Warren,
(25:49):
I'll bet that. So it's for a couple of times
on the minus seven, and now it's ten. I'll be blunt.
Um after whenever you get something like this happening on TV,
the and I call it the over reaction. Buffalo had
a great game against the Rams. Of course, we know
Tennessee lost out right to the Giants. So here you
have a fickle public that's only looking one way at Buffalo,
(26:11):
not looking at Tennessee at all. The game moved to ten.
I'll tell you what, I am tempted to buy back
my maybe not my two dimes, but at least a
dime of the bed. That's a thousand dollars on Tennessee
here to have a minus seven and a plus ten,
which are great numbers. By the way, seven it's the
second keyest number in in the NFL, three being first seven.
(26:31):
But um so ten is a is a is a
really good number two. So I'm actually thinking about doing
that now, going to talk about that. There's no totals
I will I will ever do that on there are
some sides around the number three and around the number seven,
So that's the only thing I would consider middling. If
I get over movement, or if I get enough movement
to make it worth it for me, I'll be happy
(26:53):
to lay you know, um two and a half and
and take four. I have some season games that I
put that I I bet that I'm literally I only
bet them to middle. I found like pickum minus thirty
and plus four, um minus three and plus six and
a half. I mean, just some six six middles. I
(27:15):
only bet them the middle because I didn't know much
about what that line was going to be. On my
look aheadlines. This is week to five, eight ten, I
I bet week sixteen. I mean there's so many things
that I bet them just based on middles, which I
normally don't do. But I don't know what's gonna happen
by that time. Now you look at the Cowboys here,
I think this is an interesting take by you. No
(27:37):
one likes the Cowboys at this stage. They lost Dak Prescott,
they lost Tyrant Smith, their left tackle, no more Marii Cooper,
Michael Gallup isn't back. It's just like no, no, no,
no no. If you had a stamp, its just no, no, no,
no no. Things are not looking good for Dallas. But
it's only one week in. There's seven and a half
point dogs at home against the Bengals, so not just
(27:57):
this week to game crack, but they're season Outlook are
you looking at the Cowboys a little bit more um
optimistically than the public is the entire public is against Dallas.
I'll just tell you this. I did not bet on
this game. I probably won't bet on the game, but
I will not be laying seven and a half points.
But Cincinnati on the road, I can tell you that.
(28:19):
I know they had a bad game last week. Borrow
had a ton of turnovers and and uh, you know,
Pittsburgh just just stepped up there. Well, I say stepped up.
The end of that game was amazing. How many uh
you know, how long it went, and the missfield goals
and missed opportunities. The game is actually an exciting game.
But um, I just look at things differently, and I
(28:41):
look at things from the bookmakers side. You can guarantee
by kickoff the bookmakers will be rooting for Dallas. So, uh,
we have a new quarterback here stepping in a lot
of injuries there to the line in different positions, I understand.
But that's why you have the overinflated line. If you
had a look aheadline here, if you bet this game
(29:01):
one week ago, literally before the first week of the season,
you could bet every single week at most of the
sports books the look aheadline, Cincinnati was a two and
a half point favorite. Now they're seven and a half.
I don't know if a quarterback can be worth going
through the three, going through the seven and make it
in the seven and a half. I don't know any
(29:22):
quarterback that could be a five point move like that,
I don't think. So it's always interesting to me, Crack
where you think about the Bengals. For instance, they make
it to the super Bowl and they had a bad
Week one performance. Most people think, oh, well, that's just
gonna automatically correct itself in week two. And it's always
interesting to me to sort of forecast what will correct
(29:44):
itself and what won't, what will remain similar. I don't
expect Burrow to turn it over as much, but you
know what I mean, A lot of people think it's
just an automatic, like, oh yeah, Bengals are gonna be
world beaters this week. It's like it doesn't always self
correct itself from one week to the next. Absolutely not,
especially this first to the second week. There's over This
(30:04):
is the overreaction week. There's not one week of the
year that has overreaction like Week two in the NFL.
So I'm finding that all across the board. By the way,
there's a lot of there's a lot of stuff that's
overreactions UH from week from week one to week two. Um,
but this this game is probably number one though out
of those games, this is probably number one. Do I
(30:27):
expect sincen? I hated to win the game, Yes, but
I wouldn't be surprised, believe it or not, if Dallas
wins the game. It's our sports handicapper from crack wins
dot com, Bill Krackenburger. It's countdown to Kickoff, presented here
by bet MGM one more. Let's go into this one
a prop. I love the prop bets. You are looking
at a certain Gang Green quarterback over here, Mr Joe Flacco.
(30:50):
What do you see in your crystal ball? Regarding Flacco
early in the week now, only a couple of the
sports UH sports sites have have this up, But I'm
looking at Flacco under there's a rogue to nine and
a half that I see, UH to twenty six and
a half under minus of dollar thirty. I am looking
(31:13):
to go under. Listen, I don't really like betting overs
on any props because you're a winner until you're a
loser by betting under. But I can see more and more.
I'm evolving so more and more. I will bet overs
on certain things. I bet over on the homes on completions,
and I got burned on that unfortunately because of the
(31:35):
big turn over there that really hurt me in in
the in the fourth quarter because he would have been
throwing the ball. We would have won that one easy,
but however that happens. So so like this particular week,
I'm starting out two and two on props. I mean,
props is my bread and butter. Though literally last week
destroyed props um for my guys and for me and
we just killed them. So but this particular week, looking
(31:57):
to bet some unders. I have like six or seven circled.
Hopefully we could talk about them on Sunday. Right now,
I'm looking at Flacco under on his yards and I'm
gonna be heading to some of the casinos in town
and and like I like to say, terrorizing the sports
books here right might I got off air with you?
Did they have I remember another movie. Let's let's cap
it with the movie here Ali. You know when Will Smith,
(32:20):
who's playing Muhammad Ali, He's like the chap is here?
Did they do that for you? When you walk into
these casinos to throw down major cash on games or props.
It matters what sports book I go to. Some of
them will will will always go go in the back
room and get that extra pair of underwear they have out.
But um, but but usually usually I'll go in and
(32:44):
I have a really good relationship with the books and
the bookmakers and the guys that are behind the counters.
They're really good to me. But I'll tell you right now,
like especially when I'm in Vegas, it's that individual book
that's book in the games. They don't want my actions.
They don't want me in there. No, no, of course not.
I'm I'm a winning sports butter. I'm gonna take a
chunk of money out of there by the end of
the year. They don't want me in there. They don't.
(33:05):
You have to really have a good bookmaker that's in
there that says, hey, I want to know what cracks on.
Don't want to overmove whatever he's on and put the
customer based on the opposite side. It's not the way
they think. A lot a lot of them think, hey,
let's just we want all square sharp money. I'm sorry,
square money, and we don't really want any sharp money
at all. We want the we want the you know,
the public, just betting it overs and overs and favorites
(33:27):
and stuff and but overall though I have a good,
pretty good relationship with the books and the bookmakers. Awesome stuff. Well, hey,
this is the type of stuff you're gonna hear on Sunday's.
Check us out this Sunday as well. Fox Sports Radios.
Count Down to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. It's a
three hour pregame show, so whenever kickoff is for you,
(33:48):
if you're on the East Coast and it's that one
pm Eastern kickoff time, we start at ten am your time,
right three hours right before kickoff on the West coast,
you get that ten am kickoff time. We started seven
an A m Crack will have many plays for you,
many winners also, Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran, and
myself Brian No will be with you for three hours.
(34:10):
Make sure you tune in on Sundays as well. Be
sure to check out the new looking features in the
bed mgm app. It's fast and easy access to the
sports you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost,
or the cash out feature. New users can use the
code countdown for a special offer
Fox Sports Radio News
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Jonas Knox
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