October 13, 2022 • 35 mins
Brian Noe gets you ready to bet the biggest games in football this weekend! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to dive deep into 3 huge matchups in college football this weekend - Alabama vs. Tennessee, Michigan vs. Penn State, and USC vs. Utah. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to break down this weekend in the NFL, highlighting significant point totals to jump on and giving a detailed preview of the Cowboys vs. Eagles on Sunday night!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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(00:23):
the in game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet mg app. No, we're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian No, No, everybody, what's up?
Let's fox some ball over here. By the way, new users,
(00:44):
download the bet MGM app today and use code countdown
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MGM app. We'll be talking NFL with Bill Krackenburger here
in a few minutes, sports handicapper from crack winds dot com.
Let's dive into some college football with Ard Smith. He's
the lead betting analyst from picks wise dot com. First off, though, Jared,
before we highlight a couple of these matchups. It is
(01:08):
a zesty college football slate. You talk about ranked versus
ranked a plethora. When we have five ranked versus ranked
it is a beautiful weekend of college football here. Absolutely, Brian,
I'm really excited. I think this is the first week
it's like, you know, you really start to see the
pretenders and the contenders really separate themselves. So one interesting
(01:30):
note to fifteen remaining undefeated teams, but they're not all
created equal. You really see the Ohio states that Georgia's
really separating themselves in the numbers compared to a team
like a Coastal Carolina or in Oklahoma State that's also undefeated.
So while the winds might be the same, the way
that these teams get there is not the same. And
that's where the that's where the narratives start to play
(01:51):
a factor. Absolutely, and shame on me. Six ranked versus
ranked games, six of them, including two in the top ten. Right,
so let's start off with that, Jared. We've got number
three Alabama against number six Tennessee. You have a strong
feeling on this game as far as the spread goes.
Tennessee a seven point home dog. The total at bet
(02:14):
MGM is sixty five and a half. Where are your
first impressions about this game? Yes, so this one opened
Bama minus eight. We we saw some sharp money come
in on the balls early and it pushed this down
to seven. I got in at seven and a half.
This is actually, you know, we're taking this on a Thursday.
This is really my only bed of the week so far.
I'm sure before we hit air on Saturday morning that
(02:36):
will change. But the early portion of the week I
didn't see a ton of things that I liked, especially
with these bigger games that are getting a lot of attention.
This game getting a ton of attention, and I think
the market is half baking in Bryce Young playing here.
I think the next move with the line, we might
wake up and when we're doing the show Saturday morning,
this might be six and a half or six, and
(02:56):
I think that would indicate Bryce Young maybe not a
or may me not playing. I think if Bryce Young
doesn't play, this line will continue to drop. Now Alabama's
own this series. Nick Saban eleven and four against the
number against the Valls five and one in the last
six But this is the first time the spread has
been in single digits since two thousand seven, So that's
telling me the market thinks this game is going to
(03:19):
be a lot closer than these previous blowouts where Alabama
and the last two meetings have outscored the volunteers a
hundred to forty one. Again, this has been the most
one sided rivalry during this time period post Peyton Manning.
Alabama's won fifteen straight over Tennessee. Only two of those
games decided by less than two touchdowns. And the Valls
(03:40):
just in general when they manage up, haven't played well
oh and eleven in the last eleven meetings against Georgia Andabama,
losing by an average of thirty points combined. So I
think this is uh, you know, we stately use that
word statement game all the time. This is a program
defining kind of game. Because the Valls program has been
trending in a very negative direction against these big boys
(04:00):
in the SEC. They have an opportunity at home Alabama
is a little weaker than in prior years to maybe
make a statement and and move this program in a
in a positive direction. Man, there are just so many
layers to this matchup. I swear we could do two
hours on it alone, shared, and I think the main
matchup is Tennessee's offense against Bama's defense, and Hendon Hooker
(04:22):
has been tremendous. You look at what Tennessee was able
to do. Last week against l S you wrecked up
over five hundred yards of offense, two hundred sixty three
yards on the ground playing some smash mouth. And you
also have that up tempo Tennessee offense which sometimes gives
Alabama fits. So I totally understand the Bryce Young aspect.
(04:43):
Is he gonna play? How effective will he be because
Jalen Milro doesn't look like that guy to head into
Tennessee based on what we saw last week with the
three turnovers by him four turnovers altogether by Alabama, and
the turnover differential has been a huge thing. Obama is
on the minus side their minus i've this year, So
I so many things to watch, but I would just
(05:04):
start with Tennessee's high powered offense, which Nick Saban said
might be being most talented in the country, going up
against that Bama defense. I can't wait to see how
that plays out. And we'll see if Cedric Tillman comes
back this week. Uh, that's huge to me. This is
a very talented balls wide receiver group. Even without Tillman, Hyatt, McCoy,
(05:26):
Keaton all putting up good numbers this year. You add
Tillman to the mix and it's four guys with big
play explosive potential. This is a strength on strength matchup.
The balls are fourth in offensive efficiency in the country,
Alabama fourth in defensive efficiency. Now, the one thing I
will say, Alabama has been susceptible to some of these
big play receivers. That's why Tillman's health is huge. Xavier
(05:51):
Worthy five for a hundred yards and that was without
Queen Yours for you know, Texas Evan Stewart last week
of A and M with a young quarterback eight for
one oh six. They've been able to figure out ways
to you know, even bad quarterbacks to push the ball
down the field with these elite wide receivers. So that
is something to keep an eye on this week. Handon
Hooker is definitely the guy that can put the ball
(06:13):
in the right place. Third nationally in yards per attempt,
hes third and QBR ten touchdowns, no picks. If the
season ended today, he's a Heisman finalist. Not a lot
of people expected that. And really the part of this
handicap on the balls offense that's even more intriguing is
the trenches. Tennessee is generating a ton of movement there.
Twenty one in line yards created their fourth in in
(06:33):
in stuff right, meaning they gain positive yards on most plays,
they don't get stuffed in the backfield. That sets up second,
third and manageable. The Bama defense, obviously is fantastic top
twenty five across the board and all of those metrics
opportunity rate, line yard stuff rate. So I think that's
the matchup within the matchup. Can Alabama's defense get pressure
(06:54):
on handon Hooker force him to make inaccurate throws. Can
the Tennessee running game, which has been pretty effect of
this year top fifteen inefficiency? Can they set up third
and short and can and can that wide receiver group
with Tilman get healthy and and be explosive. I think
there's opportunities here for Tennessee to move the football. That's
why the totals in the sixties. By the way, before
we get I'm dangling the carrot before we get to
(07:15):
your Nickney Lions here, Jared, what's the number one reason
you're so strong on Tennessee. I'm just curious. I'm asking you.
I'm not you know, I think Bryce Young not being
I think it's fair to say that the initial line
move off of seven and a half to seven is
(07:37):
telling me that the market is not sold on Bryce
Young being a hundred percent in this game. Let's be honest.
If Bryce Young is not a percent in this game
and Alabama's wide receiver group already is, I would say
very subpar, especially when you consider who they've had in
years past. And now you tell me that Bryce Young
(07:57):
is on the lower end of the you know, the
to seventy pcent healthy range, It's just to me, this
line is going to close beneath seven. We are going
to continue to see Tennessee money into the market. So
if I have a Tennessee plus seven and a half
ticket that I bet early in the week, and in
my mind I'm thinking Bryce Young not pent on the
lower end of that scale, the money continues to flow in. Well.
(08:20):
Now on Saturday, I have an option. I can either
hold my seven and a ticket, which is very valuable,
or I can come back on Alabama mina six and
a half and holpe the game land seven, which about
ten percent of the games, maybe a little less than that.
I think it's like seven eight percent of the games
in college football land on seven, and I go in
both bets. So that's kind of my thinking there. It's
not that I'm you know, shoving my chips in the
middle on Tennessee. I just I know I'm going to
(08:41):
get closing line value on that bet based on where
the market is moving. All right, let's move to number
ten Penn State against number five Michigan. Michigan is seven
point favorite at home on bet MGM. The total is
fifty one. Look, man, you're Niitney Lions. Jared running the ball,
playing solid defense and J J. McCarthy. He mentioned this,
(09:01):
the Michigan starting quarterback. He's like, we shouldn't be getting
stopped offensively. They've got a lot of talent and they
haven't been producing as much as he thinks they should be.
And they man defense and a running game travels and
if you look at Manny Diaz, shout out to him
as the defensive coordinator, Penn State has done a very
good job. So your first impressions on this game, Michigan
(09:22):
favored by seven against your Penn State Nitney Lions. Here,
I think the line is very fair. We did see
some early love from Michigan. Um it moved through seven
to seven and a half. Once it got to that point,
that's where the market reversed. We saw some Penn State
sharp money come in drove it back through seven, and
it's kind of hovering in that range. I would say
(09:42):
it's trending towards maybe going to six and a half. Again,
I think all of the I have a few rating
services that I trust that have been doing pretty well
this year against the spread. For the most part, they're
all painted in the six and a half seven range here,
So I think at seven it's a very fair bet,
and I don't think there's really value on either side
of the spread Situationally, I would say it's a good
(10:04):
spot for Penn State off the by healthy. The Wolverines
to me a little tough to really gauge how good
they are because of the strength of schedule. They are
winning games their six and oh for the second straight year,
and they've done well in this matchup. They've won four
of seven and five of seven they've covered so recently
in the Harbor era, Penn State has really struggled against Michigan. Now,
(10:27):
I do think Michigan is again a very difficult team
to handicap because they have one of the worst strength
of schedules in the country. Their defense is elite fifth inefficiency,
seventh against the run top ten against the past, but
the schedule of offenses they face Colorado State, Yukon, Hawaii, Iowa, Indiana,
all outside the top nine D and ep A per play.
(10:49):
The one offense they faced with a pulse, Maryland top
e p A, they gained four hundred yards and scored
twenty seven points. To me, I just it's really hard
to say Michigan's defense is as good as they were
last year with Hutchinson and a Jabo on the edge.
They haven't faced anyone. The numbers are very good, but
they have not faced anyone with a pulse, and the
one time they stepped up in class, they got pushed
(11:10):
around a little bit. It's all about the Pence State
running game here. They were a bottom feeder team running
the football last year a hundred and eight rush yards
per game. They have increased that almost double the two
hundred per game this season despite average offensive line play.
Singleton and Allen, the two freshman studs, the big reason why.
Clifford's got a lot of experience. I trust him to
(11:31):
make the right decisions, but I don't want him throwing
the ball forty times in this game. I want to
rely on this Penn State running game to try to
find some space. Now on the other side of the ball,
this is where the matchup gets very interesting because Manny
Diaz has had this very blitz happy scheme and he's
gotten a lot of pressure. The Penn State in any
Lions defense has gotten a ton of pressure this year,
but they're sac rate, so the pressure is not getting home.
(11:53):
How effective will that pressure be in this game when
you have Blake Coreum To me, who's the crux of
the offense. If I'm Diaz of stacking the box of
sending pressure on passing downs against mcarthe who hasn't really
proved himself, and I'm making sure Blake corm the third
leading rusher in the country with eleven touchdowns, doesn't beat me,
We'll see how effective that is because again, Penn State's
(12:13):
pressure hasn't gotten home this year. But there's a lot
of talent on that defense, no doubt. That's what I'm
interested in, Jared, is you read all off the numbers
with Michigan's rush defense, and I get it, they're good,
but you look at the offenses that they faced and
the deficits that those offenses faced. Right when they're getting
smoked by Michigan. Of course they're not gonna be running
(12:34):
the ball, so it's like, how legit is Michigan's rush defense.
They're in the top ten, like you mentioned in rush
yards allowed per game and yards per rush. But it's
like when you're facing suspect offenses that are playing from
far behind where they're forced to throw the ball, that
might make your rush yards given up look way better
(12:55):
than what your rush defense actually is. I agree, and
I think Penn State's defensive lines playing well tenth and
line yards created tenth and stuff right now. You could
say the same thing about the Nitney Lions, though their
schedule of offenses Perdue, Ohio, Auburn, Central, Michigan, Northwestern all
outside the top forty inefficiency. The only team inside the
(13:16):
top fifty is Ohio. Everyone else outside the top eighty.
Even Perdue that's scored thirty one points is outside the
top eighty and offensive efficiency this year, so the neither
team has really tested themselves. I know Penn State went
to Auburn tough SEC game, but Auburn is awful this year.
I mean Auburn's offense maybe one of the worst in
the country, certainly one of the worst in the SEC.
(13:37):
So I just I struggled to make really tangible handicaps
based off of the numbers because those numbers have been
against really subpar opponents. And also, when you have, in
my opinion, Michigan offense, I would say of the of
the team, of the units, it's it's a weakness, and
Penn State's defense, which is a strength. You get a
(13:57):
lot of variants there. So I I could see Michigan's
offense pulling some pulling some rabbits out of their hat
and doing some things against tendencies because they haven't really
faced any really strong opponents and now they're really gonna
Maybe maybe they've been saving the good plays for here.
I I don't know, but I think Manny diaz Is
bunch is going to be tested here. I think there's
gonna be some wrinkles. I think J. J. McCarthy, we'll
(14:20):
see if he can push it down the field. I
like what I saw from Ronnie Bell last week. Got
got healthy against Indiana. He's really the big game breaker.
This is see that that's the difference between this Michigan
team and priors. This Michigan team actually does have some
game breaking talent. At skill positions where last year they
were more lines and and the defensive you know team
they actually have guys that can break the game open.
(14:41):
And Pence they struggled, you know, they struggled in their
one game against you know, some game breaking players and produce.
So I'm I'm fascinated to see how many das plays it.
But if they're if they're gonna be outside the top
ninety and sacred and they're gonna bring all this pressure,
they're gonna be susceptible to some big plays. All right,
let's dive into this one real fast number seven USC
against for twenty Utah, Utah favored by three and a
(15:03):
half against the undefeated Trojans. That raises some eyebrows right
there with the betting public. But you think about this man,
You think about Utah, who's had USC's number at Rice
Echo Stadium more times than not. Here last time USC
one was back in taking out that COVID weird year
(15:23):
where nobody was in attendance in so USC has not
fared well at Utah. But you look at Utah last week, Jared,
You look at that defense, Zach Charbon a rush for
almost two hundred yards dtr through for almost three hundred yards,
accounted for five total touchdowns. That Utah defense did not
(15:44):
look good at all last week, and you're going up
against the high powered USC offense. So what's your first
impression in this one? Yes, so to talk about some
crazy line movements. So over the summer, some of the
sports books here in the desert will open up what
they call game of the year. Unlike the NFL, where
every game gets booked in the summer, because of power ratings,
(16:05):
in college football it's a littlemurkier. So they will pick
and choose the big, biggest games and they will open
those up in the summer for people to bet. This
opened at one of the shops here in town. Utah
minus twelve and so talk about a power rating shift
since Now again, that's why Utah is not an underdog
in this game, because they were such a heavy favorite
(16:27):
in the summer because of what the power rating numbers
look like over you know, the the off season that
it's it's really hard to flip the favorite here. Now
you can make a case for USC to be favorite.
I mean, they've looked really good. However, the offense to
me is starting to regress a little bit. Here you go.
They've averaged five and twenty yards per game over the
(16:49):
first three Rice, Stanford, Fresno State average four hundreds in
the last three, Oregon State, Arizona State, Wazoo. What are
those teams have in common? Well, their conference opponents, they
have or defenses than the first three. And you're seeing
now four or five, six weeks of this offense on
tape with Cliff Kingsbury. Some of the wrinkles, especially in
(17:11):
the passing game, the route combinations. You know, defenses adjust,
and I think good defenses, good defensive coaches, and that's
what Utah certainly has. Will Adjost. Now, you're right, Utah's
run defense has been really bad this year, and that
is a trouble spot because that was supposed to be
a strength of their team. They're outside the top eighty
in line yards created on the defensive side of the ball,
(17:31):
outside the top eight and opportunity rate. This is the
Utah defense that can be run on, and I think
that could be the key for USC. We love talking about,
you know, Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison, who's a little
banged up, Mario Williams who's coming off a two score game.
I mean, those guys can be number one receivers on
any team in the country virtually, and they're on the
same team here in l A. But for me, it's
(17:54):
the offensive line for USC third in line yards created,
and Travis d coming off a career high twenty eight
carries for a buck fifty and a touchdown his fourth
game of the year. I think at USC wins this
game and they go up to altitude and get a victory,
it's gonna be Travis D left right and center has
a ton of experience against his Utah team played at Oregon.
I think it's the offensive line and the running game
(18:16):
that you know, Caleb Williams, he's only making his fourteenth
career start. This is not It's still foreign territory for him.
So I think the running game is really where us
he should lean on in this spot. Interesting. Okay, before
we get out of here, Jared one random pick right.
I know you're on Tennessee, but you're leaning somewhere else
where You leaning here? Yeah, So we bet Colorado State
(18:37):
last Friday, UM and they gotta win. They were able
to get across the finish line, the first against the
spread win of the year. Usually we like fading teams
after big wins like that. But I think Colorado State
was just a little undervalued after a really rough opening
slate of the season, and now they get a home
game and four collins against Utah State, who was off
a huge win over air Force, arguably one of the
(19:00):
bigger wins and in recent program history, considering how good
air Forces this year. And I'm catching double digits with
Colorado State. Listen. I know their numbers ain't nothing to
write home about, but these let down spots, especially for
teams at home. I love when they're at home facing
a team off a huge win and the other teams
coming in with some confidence and then all of a
sudden they fall flat. So I wouldn't be shocked if
(19:22):
Colorado State kept things close again and maybe even was
able to pull off a win against the Aggies this
Saturday night. I like it. Man, We'll have so much
more on Saturday. Fox Sports Radios count Down to Kickoff
presented by bed MGM three hours leading up to kickoff,
so noon Eastern time. We're on from nine am until
(19:43):
noon Eastern time. Much more analysis, much more fun, many
more picks as well. It's a huge weekend catches then
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(20:03):
Bet MGM the king of sports books. All right, let's
welcome in our guy, Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper
from crack wins dot com. Let's talk some n f L. Crack.
You got the Cowboys and Eagles circled. We're seeing the
number tick up. You've got the Eagles favorite round six,
(20:23):
six and a half right there on bet MGM. What's
your first impression on this game and where the line is? Hey, Brian, Uh,
the sixes are all disappearing. Looks like six and a
pretty solid six and a half now, Uh, this line
kind of surprised me. Went from five to six, and
it kind of surprised me here that it was ticking
up to six minus juice and now six and a half.
(20:45):
Probably not gonna go to seven. It's a key number.
But if you can buy at the seven, wow, this
might be an option for me. I don't really do
too many sides as you guys, know, but I don't know.
Dallas is uh playing pretty good, just like I thought
they would right after Dak went down. And that you
know ten point line move we talked about from the
look aheads when Dallas played. Since he uh, they're they're
(21:08):
on a on a roll here, winning on winning on
the road against the Rams and uh in the game
that they were you know, pretty particularly to lose. I
just think that this is an old division rival, and
and uh, I know Doc is not a healthy and
and and I'm sure he's not going to go until
(21:29):
the following but even if he does, you know this,
this is now you have two quarterbacks that are that
are worthy of being uh called uh you know, professional
great NFL quarterbacks because he's uh, we're looking at too
many points here, I think, And and don't be surprised
if this game doesn't tick down on on game day,
so uh doubt looking at Dallas right here in this spot. Yeah,
(21:52):
and the total stands out to me to crack at
forty two. And you pointed this out. This is a
trend in week in week five year, uh, where we're
looking at these these numbers that are going down. We've
we're in week six, but We've seen five weeks where
the unders have been hitting steadily, right, the unders at
(22:15):
fifty seven percent have hit this season. So you're seeing
the market readjust you like the overs more this week? Yeah,
that that you could see this week. I mean just
just look it up and down the board. You could
see uh literally starting with Thursday night, Um, the probably
the lowest total of the year, looking at the thirty
eight on Chicago. Uh, and then you just go on
(22:36):
and on Tampa, Pits, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New England, Jets, Baltimore, Minnesota.
I'll just keep going here in San fran Carolina, Dallas,
every one of those totals are in the low forties.
The bookmakers not gonna they're they're not gonna allow a
trend to keep happening. So they're gonna add they're gonna
take away a point here on every game, and I
(22:58):
hope it. You know, people start and putting some mixed action.
And though the bookmakers have probably want a lot of
money with this under trend, public loves to bet over.
So uh this week, I I have circled some overs.
I know I gave you guys. We have we do
a group chat on Monday morning, and I give the
guys some of the moves before they move. Um. Not
a lot of shows uh out there and on any
(23:22):
network nationwide worldwide can never have a team like we
have on our show that literally have the line moves
and and uh, you know, tell people what's going on
in real time when we have the weekend show also,
so uh, it's it's fun. It's been great, and I
look to uh encourage people to listen because what we're
(23:44):
doing is educating the public too. We're showing them the
things that happened, the real, live things that happened right
before our eyes. I see these lines of all now
moving down and I looked a bet over on on
and I think the it returns to the mean with
some of the overs this week. I do love the
group chat where you have like you right now, like
(24:06):
bet this now in all caps with like five exclamation points.
That's my favorite part. But of these over as you've
circled a couple of them, what's your favorite over of
the week right now? And before I get into that,
isn't it such a high? And I'm doing this thirty years,
but isn't it such a high? At the beginning when
I was doing this the first decade. It was such
(24:27):
a high when I actually send my buddies and my
partners and alright, guys, we're gonna bet this exactly ten
oh one am. And I would give him a countdown, five, four,
three to one, go and go be capital letters, exclamation points,
and in three minutes or two minutes they would see
everyone move a full point. We're literally controlling the NFL
(24:47):
market for the entire world. It's such a high. It's like,
you know, it's like well, like a drug addict running
for a drug. Half to high they get is running
for the drug and the procedure and of getting the
drug more than and then actually taking the drug. It's
but but of course our drug is is money and
money we will make money being on the right side
of line. So it's really a high getting the best
(25:09):
of the lines and and and um, we'll we'll see that.
I gave you guys a couple overs early in the week,
and as the season goes on, I'll get less market
respect because there's so much the lines are so much tighter,
and there's so much more two way action. Perfect example,
I gave you guys the Jets Green Bay over forty
(25:30):
four and a half I think it was, and the
commediately went to forty six and a half, and actually
there was a couple of forty seven's immediately got bounced
back down the forty five and a half. Now again
still got the best of it by a point. Um,
I kind of like that one. Still, Uh, there is
a couple of forty fives out there. I leaned to
the over in in that game. And again I hate
(25:51):
anyone betting a bad line, so I don't want to
give you something that's obtainable that I think is a
good number. Um, Tampa Pittsburgh. UM also is at at
forty four, which is still a good number. I think
to go over there. Um, I think Pittsburgh. Finally, I
think maybe Pickle will come around a little bit and
learn from his his his his time that he has
(26:14):
so far in the NFL. And um, I look I
look for for Brady to come around too. He really
didn't have a great game last week. They almost lost
that game in the end after being up twenty one nothing.
So uh, look for some more points, even though uh,
even though they haven't recently. Um. You know, when when
teams get ahead like that, That's why I like betting over,
(26:35):
and I may just do that in the first half, Spryan,
because these teams that get ahead, these big favorites that
get ahead, maybe like a Tampa, they'll slow that clock
down in the second half, where I'm better off going
over in the first half, which I didn't even send
out any of my people yet, but I think I'm
looking at the over first half twenty one and a
half twenty two there. Yeah, I hear you on that one.
(26:57):
That makes sense because look, man, what we just saw
the previous week doesn't always play itself out again the
next week. A lot of times it goes the other way.
But I can't help but think of the way the
Bill started off against Pittsburgh. You got Gabe Davis catching
these length of the field touchdown grabs pretty much, and then,
(27:18):
like you said, they took their foot off the gas
pedal at the end of the game and Pittsburgh only
scored three points. So yeah, the first half over might
make even more sense for Tampa Pittsburgh than a full
game over. Is that what you think? Yeah, because I'll
tell you, and now, even though I did at the
full game over, I'll probably bet more money on the
first half over because of the reasons I said, especially
(27:39):
when you get an eight point favorite, I supposed to
win by eight means they should be up by maybe
a double digit, up by ten, and they'll be doing
a lot more running in that fourth quarter. But hopefully
they went on their way to get that ten point lead.
They went over the forty four or maybe even thirty nine,
thirty eight. This way Pittsburgh can score maybe a backdoor
touched down or something and uh, you know, push push
(28:02):
it above the forty four. But I like the first
half over is only because you'll notice teams slowing the
ball down that are ahead by more than one score
and late in the fourth quarter. Yeah, how about this one?
Another great matchup, crack. You've got the Bills and the Chiefs.
Of course, everybody remembers the last game where the the
Bills had the lead with thirteen seconds to go, found
(28:24):
a way to lose that overtime game. So we get
at least the Week six rematch of that one in
the divisional playoffs. What do you think about Bill's Chiefs, Boy,
that's a that's supposed to be like when the scheduler
made that game, which is Howard Kat's friend of mine
actually Um, probably the most important job in the NFL,
UH is making that schedule. He's got it. He's got
(28:46):
a tough job there. Um that Buffalo Kansas City was
supposed to be like the Marquee great game. Uh. Both
teams have showed that they're human, that they can fail
this season. So Kansas City losing the the Colts and Buffalo,
you know, coming out of the gate two and two. Um,
you know after the big first week over the Rams.
(29:07):
These teams are listen this this year. There's more parody
this year than ever. I would not be betting any
futures on the Super Bowl, by the way, under ten
to one. I'm not this year anyone can win more
than ever. So, UM, this is still going to be
a good game. It's perfectly lined at two and a
half and maybe even a three. I see MGM has
(29:31):
a has a minus free even this that's probably the
right number. But I look for this to be a
really fun game to watch. Like I said, this was
supposed to be maybe like the game of the year
here as far as the schedulers go. Uh, you know,
top two teams to to win the Super Bowl, Uh
playing each other here in Week six I'm I don't
(29:52):
have a side on this game. I noticed the total
now as we speak at fifty four. That's a heck
of a lot of points, especially in in in a
year where we have unders. But uh, if any two
teams can do it, these are the teams that are
they supposed to be the offensive powerhouses. So this should
be fun on on a Sunday afternoon. It's an afternoon
(30:13):
game one West Coast time. One more, I want to
get your rapid fire thoughts on the Broncos against the
Chargers on Monday Night Football. And the last time we
saw Russell Wilson in company, they were scoring nine points
against the Colds Thursday Night Football. They have not exactly
unlocked their offense over there. What do you think about
(30:33):
Denver going up against the Chargers defense? Been pretty leaky
defensively as well. It's a four and a half. The
Chargers are favored by at bet MGM right now, this
game is open. That six went down to four and
a half, took and taking some Denver money. Uh. Denver
has put up a couple of clunkers this year, even
the TV game, Uh that that we're talking about, think
(30:54):
that was was that nine six? Brian, that score twelve nine,
twelve nine, okay, twelve nine, but no touchdowns scored? Is
that right? Twelve nine? Uh? Literally seven fields in the game.
Just a boring, boring game. And you may get the
same boring game here Chargers Denver. I have nothing on
(31:17):
this game right now. The totals has stayed almost exactly
the same forty five and a half forty six as
where it opens. Uh, listen, people, you know we have
on Jason from bet MGM every week. People tend to
love betting these primetime games. Uh, three times four three
x four x is the words he uses compared to
(31:37):
the regular games. I don't know if this game will
get three x four x volume out of it because
of the two teams involved here. Um. I actually thought
the Chargers were a good future bet at there around
twenty to one before the season started to to you know,
win the Super Bowl. Uh, they're they're probably twenty one now,
(31:58):
so obviously it wasn't that good of a bet. So,
but I mean, what we're gonna see what's gonna happen here?
Can they step up on on primetime TV and and
do something? Hey? What did I say here? The Chargers eighteen.
The one. I'm just looking now, um, this this should
be a game that you know, they have a chance
to maybe step up a little bit. And even Denver
they know they were uh, you know, they know they were.
(32:20):
They were kind of not that they're being booed in
the press, but you know, Wilson took some some heat,
uh from a couple of different angles here and a
couple of different people in media. One actually went after him,
I think on ESPN, like right after the game. Uh,
kind of went after him a little bit. I was
pretty surprised. So we'll see what happens here. See they
could step up real fast. Crack last one. I'm just
curious to get your thoughts on this one. Vikings at
(32:42):
the Dolphins. Dolphins are three and a half point home
underdog no to uh no Titty Bridgewater. They're both still
in concussion protocol, so you get Skyler Thompson and you know,
as well as I do, Crack, there are a lot
of betters that will say, oh, they're down to their
third string quarterback, that the Viking all day, all day,
and hey, that might be the right side, but there
(33:03):
are a lot of sharp betters that take advantage of
a situation like that with a home dog and might
ride with Miami. Do you have a lean either way
between the Vikings and Dolphins this Sunday? Yeah that this
this game moved from open. The three went the three
and a half quickly, and now you're right, it's probably
some of the sharper money coming back. There's only one
(33:24):
or two three and a half bet MGM is one
of the three and a half plus three and a
half minus fifteen on taking Miami there. I wouldn't be
so quick to to take Minnesota this game if you
have the look aheadline. Literally two weeks ago before UH
quarterback the quarterbacks went down, Miami was two and a
(33:45):
half point favorite. Now I don't know if that means
a six points a six point turnaround there. I don't
know if any quarterbacks worth six points, But I I
understand why the move came. It's not just one, it's two.
Looking at Uh, you know, a brand new, fresh quarterback
that's never really played in the NFL, UM this this
(34:07):
should be interesting. I wouldn't be looking at there's still
professional football team Miami, and they've definitely have played good
the first half of the year. UM well, the first
I guess the first I want to say the first
four or five games, I mean, they played good. I
wouldn't be so quick to count them out and see
when these guys can get healthy and come back. But
I'm definitely taking a hard pass on this game and
(34:28):
just seeing what happens. And I wouldn't be so quick
to even uh bet Minnesota or Miami this game. Maybe
just stand on the sidelines and watch. Hey, be sure
to check out the new looking features in the bed
MGM map. It's fast and easy access to the sports
you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions boost,
or the cash out feature. New users can use the
code countdown for a special offer. All right, definitely check
(34:52):
us out Fox Sports Radios. Count Down the Kickoff presented
by bet MGM Sundays three hours before kickoff. So let's
just use East Coast time ten am to one pm
Eastern time that early kickoff window three hours with Bill Crackenberger.
I'll tell you what. The dude is as sharp as
they come, as all kinds of insight. We have fun.
(35:12):
He told the crazy story last week, and I'll have
all sorts of picks for you. Also, our guy Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran. I'm Brian, though I'll be along
for the fun as well, So check us out this
Sunday for all the week sixth action
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
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(00:23):
the in game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet mg app. No, we're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian No, No, everybody, what's up?
Let's fox some ball over here. By the way, new users,
(00:44):
download the bet MGM app today and use code countdown
for a special offer. That's code countdown in the bet
MGM app. We'll be talking NFL with Bill Krackenburger here
in a few minutes, sports handicapper from crack winds dot com.
Let's dive into some college football with Ard Smith. He's
the lead betting analyst from picks wise dot com. First off, though, Jared,
before we highlight a couple of these matchups. It is
(01:08):
a zesty college football slate. You talk about ranked versus
ranked a plethora. When we have five ranked versus ranked
it is a beautiful weekend of college football here. Absolutely, Brian,
I'm really excited. I think this is the first week
it's like, you know, you really start to see the
pretenders and the contenders really separate themselves. So one interesting
(01:30):
note to fifteen remaining undefeated teams, but they're not all
created equal. You really see the Ohio states that Georgia's
really separating themselves in the numbers compared to a team
like a Coastal Carolina or in Oklahoma State that's also undefeated.
So while the winds might be the same, the way
that these teams get there is not the same. And
that's where the that's where the narratives start to play
(01:51):
a factor. Absolutely, and shame on me. Six ranked versus
ranked games, six of them, including two in the top ten. Right,
so let's start off with that, Jared. We've got number
three Alabama against number six Tennessee. You have a strong
feeling on this game as far as the spread goes.
Tennessee a seven point home dog. The total at bet
(02:14):
MGM is sixty five and a half. Where are your
first impressions about this game? Yes, so this one opened
Bama minus eight. We we saw some sharp money come
in on the balls early and it pushed this down
to seven. I got in at seven and a half.
This is actually, you know, we're taking this on a Thursday.
This is really my only bed of the week so far.
I'm sure before we hit air on Saturday morning that
(02:36):
will change. But the early portion of the week I
didn't see a ton of things that I liked, especially
with these bigger games that are getting a lot of attention.
This game getting a ton of attention, and I think
the market is half baking in Bryce Young playing here.
I think the next move with the line, we might
wake up and when we're doing the show Saturday morning,
this might be six and a half or six, and
(02:56):
I think that would indicate Bryce Young maybe not a
or may me not playing. I think if Bryce Young
doesn't play, this line will continue to drop. Now Alabama's
own this series. Nick Saban eleven and four against the
number against the Valls five and one in the last
six But this is the first time the spread has
been in single digits since two thousand seven, So that's
telling me the market thinks this game is going to
(03:19):
be a lot closer than these previous blowouts where Alabama
and the last two meetings have outscored the volunteers a
hundred to forty one. Again, this has been the most
one sided rivalry during this time period post Peyton Manning.
Alabama's won fifteen straight over Tennessee. Only two of those
games decided by less than two touchdowns. And the Valls
(03:40):
just in general when they manage up, haven't played well
oh and eleven in the last eleven meetings against Georgia Andabama,
losing by an average of thirty points combined. So I
think this is uh, you know, we stately use that
word statement game all the time. This is a program
defining kind of game. Because the Valls program has been
trending in a very negative direction against these big boys
(04:00):
in the SEC. They have an opportunity at home Alabama
is a little weaker than in prior years to maybe
make a statement and and move this program in a
in a positive direction. Man, there are just so many
layers to this matchup. I swear we could do two
hours on it alone, shared, and I think the main
matchup is Tennessee's offense against Bama's defense, and Hendon Hooker
(04:22):
has been tremendous. You look at what Tennessee was able
to do. Last week against l S you wrecked up
over five hundred yards of offense, two hundred sixty three
yards on the ground playing some smash mouth. And you
also have that up tempo Tennessee offense which sometimes gives
Alabama fits. So I totally understand the Bryce Young aspect.
(04:43):
Is he gonna play? How effective will he be because
Jalen Milro doesn't look like that guy to head into
Tennessee based on what we saw last week with the
three turnovers by him four turnovers altogether by Alabama, and
the turnover differential has been a huge thing. Obama is
on the minus side their minus i've this year, So
I so many things to watch, but I would just
(05:04):
start with Tennessee's high powered offense, which Nick Saban said
might be being most talented in the country, going up
against that Bama defense. I can't wait to see how
that plays out. And we'll see if Cedric Tillman comes
back this week. Uh, that's huge to me. This is
a very talented balls wide receiver group. Even without Tillman, Hyatt, McCoy,
(05:26):
Keaton all putting up good numbers this year. You add
Tillman to the mix and it's four guys with big
play explosive potential. This is a strength on strength matchup.
The balls are fourth in offensive efficiency in the country,
Alabama fourth in defensive efficiency. Now, the one thing I
will say, Alabama has been susceptible to some of these
big play receivers. That's why Tillman's health is huge. Xavier
(05:51):
Worthy five for a hundred yards and that was without
Queen Yours for you know, Texas Evan Stewart last week
of A and M with a young quarterback eight for
one oh six. They've been able to figure out ways
to you know, even bad quarterbacks to push the ball
down the field with these elite wide receivers. So that
is something to keep an eye on this week. Handon
Hooker is definitely the guy that can put the ball
(06:13):
in the right place. Third nationally in yards per attempt,
hes third and QBR ten touchdowns, no picks. If the
season ended today, he's a Heisman finalist. Not a lot
of people expected that. And really the part of this
handicap on the balls offense that's even more intriguing is
the trenches. Tennessee is generating a ton of movement there.
Twenty one in line yards created their fourth in in
(06:33):
in stuff right, meaning they gain positive yards on most plays,
they don't get stuffed in the backfield. That sets up second,
third and manageable. The Bama defense, obviously is fantastic top
twenty five across the board and all of those metrics
opportunity rate, line yard stuff rate. So I think that's
the matchup within the matchup. Can Alabama's defense get pressure
(06:54):
on handon Hooker force him to make inaccurate throws. Can
the Tennessee running game, which has been pretty effect of
this year top fifteen inefficiency? Can they set up third
and short and can and can that wide receiver group
with Tilman get healthy and and be explosive. I think
there's opportunities here for Tennessee to move the football. That's
why the totals in the sixties. By the way, before
we get I'm dangling the carrot before we get to
(07:15):
your Nickney Lions here, Jared, what's the number one reason
you're so strong on Tennessee. I'm just curious. I'm asking you.
I'm not you know, I think Bryce Young not being
I think it's fair to say that the initial line
move off of seven and a half to seven is
(07:37):
telling me that the market is not sold on Bryce
Young being a hundred percent in this game. Let's be honest.
If Bryce Young is not a percent in this game
and Alabama's wide receiver group already is, I would say
very subpar, especially when you consider who they've had in
years past. And now you tell me that Bryce Young
(07:57):
is on the lower end of the you know, the
to seventy pcent healthy range, It's just to me, this
line is going to close beneath seven. We are going
to continue to see Tennessee money into the market. So
if I have a Tennessee plus seven and a half
ticket that I bet early in the week, and in
my mind I'm thinking Bryce Young not pent on the
lower end of that scale, the money continues to flow in. Well.
(08:20):
Now on Saturday, I have an option. I can either
hold my seven and a ticket, which is very valuable,
or I can come back on Alabama mina six and
a half and holpe the game land seven, which about
ten percent of the games, maybe a little less than that.
I think it's like seven eight percent of the games
in college football land on seven, and I go in
both bets. So that's kind of my thinking there. It's
not that I'm you know, shoving my chips in the
middle on Tennessee. I just I know I'm going to
(08:41):
get closing line value on that bet based on where
the market is moving. All right, let's move to number
ten Penn State against number five Michigan. Michigan is seven
point favorite at home on bet MGM. The total is
fifty one. Look, man, you're Niitney Lions. Jared running the ball,
playing solid defense and J J. McCarthy. He mentioned this,
(09:01):
the Michigan starting quarterback. He's like, we shouldn't be getting
stopped offensively. They've got a lot of talent and they
haven't been producing as much as he thinks they should be.
And they man defense and a running game travels and
if you look at Manny Diaz, shout out to him
as the defensive coordinator, Penn State has done a very
good job. So your first impressions on this game, Michigan
(09:22):
favored by seven against your Penn State Nitney Lions. Here,
I think the line is very fair. We did see
some early love from Michigan. Um it moved through seven
to seven and a half. Once it got to that point,
that's where the market reversed. We saw some Penn State
sharp money come in drove it back through seven, and
it's kind of hovering in that range. I would say
(09:42):
it's trending towards maybe going to six and a half. Again,
I think all of the I have a few rating
services that I trust that have been doing pretty well
this year against the spread. For the most part, they're
all painted in the six and a half seven range here,
So I think at seven it's a very fair bet,
and I don't think there's really value on either side
of the spread Situationally, I would say it's a good
(10:04):
spot for Penn State off the by healthy. The Wolverines
to me a little tough to really gauge how good
they are because of the strength of schedule. They are
winning games their six and oh for the second straight year,
and they've done well in this matchup. They've won four
of seven and five of seven they've covered so recently
in the Harbor era, Penn State has really struggled against Michigan. Now,
(10:27):
I do think Michigan is again a very difficult team
to handicap because they have one of the worst strength
of schedules in the country. Their defense is elite fifth inefficiency,
seventh against the run top ten against the past, but
the schedule of offenses they face Colorado State, Yukon, Hawaii, Iowa, Indiana,
all outside the top nine D and ep A per play.
(10:49):
The one offense they faced with a pulse, Maryland top
e p A, they gained four hundred yards and scored
twenty seven points. To me, I just it's really hard
to say Michigan's defense is as good as they were
last year with Hutchinson and a Jabo on the edge.
They haven't faced anyone. The numbers are very good, but
they have not faced anyone with a pulse, and the
one time they stepped up in class, they got pushed
(11:10):
around a little bit. It's all about the Pence State
running game here. They were a bottom feeder team running
the football last year a hundred and eight rush yards
per game. They have increased that almost double the two
hundred per game this season despite average offensive line play.
Singleton and Allen, the two freshman studs, the big reason why.
Clifford's got a lot of experience. I trust him to
(11:31):
make the right decisions, but I don't want him throwing
the ball forty times in this game. I want to
rely on this Penn State running game to try to
find some space. Now on the other side of the ball,
this is where the matchup gets very interesting because Manny
Diaz has had this very blitz happy scheme and he's
gotten a lot of pressure. The Penn State in any
Lions defense has gotten a ton of pressure this year,
but they're sac rate, so the pressure is not getting home.
(11:53):
How effective will that pressure be in this game when
you have Blake Coreum To me, who's the crux of
the offense. If I'm Diaz of stacking the box of
sending pressure on passing downs against mcarthe who hasn't really
proved himself, and I'm making sure Blake corm the third
leading rusher in the country with eleven touchdowns, doesn't beat me,
We'll see how effective that is because again, Penn State's
(12:13):
pressure hasn't gotten home this year. But there's a lot
of talent on that defense, no doubt. That's what I'm
interested in, Jared, is you read all off the numbers
with Michigan's rush defense, and I get it, they're good,
but you look at the offenses that they faced and
the deficits that those offenses faced. Right when they're getting
smoked by Michigan. Of course they're not gonna be running
(12:34):
the ball, so it's like, how legit is Michigan's rush defense.
They're in the top ten, like you mentioned in rush
yards allowed per game and yards per rush. But it's
like when you're facing suspect offenses that are playing from
far behind where they're forced to throw the ball, that
might make your rush yards given up look way better
(12:55):
than what your rush defense actually is. I agree, and
I think Penn State's defensive lines playing well tenth and
line yards created tenth and stuff right now. You could
say the same thing about the Nitney Lions, though their
schedule of offenses Perdue, Ohio, Auburn, Central, Michigan, Northwestern all
outside the top forty inefficiency. The only team inside the
(13:16):
top fifty is Ohio. Everyone else outside the top eighty.
Even Perdue that's scored thirty one points is outside the
top eighty and offensive efficiency this year, so the neither
team has really tested themselves. I know Penn State went
to Auburn tough SEC game, but Auburn is awful this year.
I mean Auburn's offense maybe one of the worst in
the country, certainly one of the worst in the SEC.
(13:37):
So I just I struggled to make really tangible handicaps
based off of the numbers because those numbers have been
against really subpar opponents. And also, when you have, in
my opinion, Michigan offense, I would say of the of
the team, of the units, it's it's a weakness, and
Penn State's defense, which is a strength. You get a
(13:57):
lot of variants there. So I I could see Michigan's
offense pulling some pulling some rabbits out of their hat
and doing some things against tendencies because they haven't really
faced any really strong opponents and now they're really gonna
Maybe maybe they've been saving the good plays for here.
I I don't know, but I think Manny diaz Is
bunch is going to be tested here. I think there's
gonna be some wrinkles. I think J. J. McCarthy, we'll
(14:20):
see if he can push it down the field. I
like what I saw from Ronnie Bell last week. Got
got healthy against Indiana. He's really the big game breaker.
This is see that that's the difference between this Michigan
team and priors. This Michigan team actually does have some
game breaking talent. At skill positions where last year they
were more lines and and the defensive you know team
they actually have guys that can break the game open.
(14:41):
And Pence they struggled, you know, they struggled in their
one game against you know, some game breaking players and produce.
So I'm I'm fascinated to see how many das plays it.
But if they're if they're gonna be outside the top
ninety and sacred and they're gonna bring all this pressure,
they're gonna be susceptible to some big plays. All right,
let's dive into this one real fast number seven USC
against for twenty Utah, Utah favored by three and a
(15:03):
half against the undefeated Trojans. That raises some eyebrows right
there with the betting public. But you think about this man,
You think about Utah, who's had USC's number at Rice
Echo Stadium more times than not. Here last time USC
one was back in taking out that COVID weird year
(15:23):
where nobody was in attendance in so USC has not
fared well at Utah. But you look at Utah last week, Jared,
You look at that defense, Zach Charbon a rush for
almost two hundred yards dtr through for almost three hundred yards,
accounted for five total touchdowns. That Utah defense did not
(15:44):
look good at all last week, and you're going up
against the high powered USC offense. So what's your first
impression in this one? Yes, so to talk about some
crazy line movements. So over the summer, some of the
sports books here in the desert will open up what
they call game of the year. Unlike the NFL, where
every game gets booked in the summer, because of power ratings,
(16:05):
in college football it's a littlemurkier. So they will pick
and choose the big, biggest games and they will open
those up in the summer for people to bet. This
opened at one of the shops here in town. Utah
minus twelve and so talk about a power rating shift
since Now again, that's why Utah is not an underdog
in this game, because they were such a heavy favorite
(16:27):
in the summer because of what the power rating numbers
look like over you know, the the off season that
it's it's really hard to flip the favorite here. Now
you can make a case for USC to be favorite.
I mean, they've looked really good. However, the offense to
me is starting to regress a little bit. Here you go.
They've averaged five and twenty yards per game over the
(16:49):
first three Rice, Stanford, Fresno State average four hundreds in
the last three, Oregon State, Arizona State, Wazoo. What are
those teams have in common? Well, their conference opponents, they
have or defenses than the first three. And you're seeing
now four or five, six weeks of this offense on
tape with Cliff Kingsbury. Some of the wrinkles, especially in
(17:11):
the passing game, the route combinations. You know, defenses adjust,
and I think good defenses, good defensive coaches, and that's
what Utah certainly has. Will Adjost. Now, you're right, Utah's
run defense has been really bad this year, and that
is a trouble spot because that was supposed to be
a strength of their team. They're outside the top eighty
in line yards created on the defensive side of the ball,
(17:31):
outside the top eight and opportunity rate. This is the
Utah defense that can be run on, and I think
that could be the key for USC. We love talking about,
you know, Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison, who's a little
banged up, Mario Williams who's coming off a two score game.
I mean, those guys can be number one receivers on
any team in the country virtually, and they're on the
same team here in l A. But for me, it's
(17:54):
the offensive line for USC third in line yards created,
and Travis d coming off a career high twenty eight
carries for a buck fifty and a touchdown his fourth
game of the year. I think at USC wins this
game and they go up to altitude and get a victory,
it's gonna be Travis D left right and center has
a ton of experience against his Utah team played at Oregon.
I think it's the offensive line and the running game
(18:16):
that you know, Caleb Williams, he's only making his fourteenth
career start. This is not It's still foreign territory for him.
So I think the running game is really where us
he should lean on in this spot. Interesting. Okay, before
we get out of here, Jared one random pick right.
I know you're on Tennessee, but you're leaning somewhere else
where You leaning here? Yeah, So we bet Colorado State
(18:37):
last Friday, UM and they gotta win. They were able
to get across the finish line, the first against the
spread win of the year. Usually we like fading teams
after big wins like that. But I think Colorado State
was just a little undervalued after a really rough opening
slate of the season, and now they get a home
game and four collins against Utah State, who was off
a huge win over air Force, arguably one of the
(19:00):
bigger wins and in recent program history, considering how good
air Forces this year. And I'm catching double digits with
Colorado State. Listen. I know their numbers ain't nothing to
write home about, but these let down spots, especially for
teams at home. I love when they're at home facing
a team off a huge win and the other teams
coming in with some confidence and then all of a
sudden they fall flat. So I wouldn't be shocked if
(19:22):
Colorado State kept things close again and maybe even was
able to pull off a win against the Aggies this
Saturday night. I like it. Man, We'll have so much
more on Saturday. Fox Sports Radios count Down to Kickoff
presented by bed MGM three hours leading up to kickoff,
so noon Eastern time. We're on from nine am until
(19:43):
noon Eastern time. Much more analysis, much more fun, many
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(20:03):
Bet MGM the king of sports books. All right, let's
welcome in our guy, Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper
from crack wins dot com. Let's talk some n f L. Crack.
You got the Cowboys and Eagles circled. We're seeing the
number tick up. You've got the Eagles favorite round six,
(20:23):
six and a half right there on bet MGM. What's
your first impression on this game and where the line is? Hey, Brian, Uh,
the sixes are all disappearing. Looks like six and a
pretty solid six and a half now, Uh, this line
kind of surprised me. Went from five to six, and
it kind of surprised me here that it was ticking
up to six minus juice and now six and a half.
(20:45):
Probably not gonna go to seven. It's a key number.
But if you can buy at the seven, wow, this
might be an option for me. I don't really do
too many sides as you guys, know, but I don't know.
Dallas is uh playing pretty good, just like I thought
they would right after Dak went down. And that you
know ten point line move we talked about from the
look aheads when Dallas played. Since he uh, they're they're
(21:08):
on a on a roll here, winning on winning on
the road against the Rams and uh in the game
that they were you know, pretty particularly to lose. I
just think that this is an old division rival, and
and uh, I know Doc is not a healthy and
and and I'm sure he's not going to go until
(21:29):
the following but even if he does, you know this,
this is now you have two quarterbacks that are that
are worthy of being uh called uh you know, professional
great NFL quarterbacks because he's uh, we're looking at too
many points here, I think, And and don't be surprised
if this game doesn't tick down on on game day,
so uh doubt looking at Dallas right here in this spot. Yeah,
(21:52):
and the total stands out to me to crack at
forty two. And you pointed this out. This is a
trend in week in week five year, uh, where we're
looking at these these numbers that are going down. We've
we're in week six, but We've seen five weeks where
the unders have been hitting steadily, right, the unders at
(22:15):
fifty seven percent have hit this season. So you're seeing
the market readjust you like the overs more this week? Yeah,
that that you could see this week. I mean just
just look it up and down the board. You could
see uh literally starting with Thursday night, Um, the probably
the lowest total of the year, looking at the thirty
eight on Chicago. Uh, and then you just go on
(22:36):
and on Tampa, Pits, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New England, Jets, Baltimore, Minnesota.
I'll just keep going here in San fran Carolina, Dallas,
every one of those totals are in the low forties.
The bookmakers not gonna they're they're not gonna allow a
trend to keep happening. So they're gonna add they're gonna
take away a point here on every game, and I
(22:58):
hope it. You know, people start and putting some mixed action.
And though the bookmakers have probably want a lot of
money with this under trend, public loves to bet over.
So uh this week, I I have circled some overs.
I know I gave you guys. We have we do
a group chat on Monday morning, and I give the
guys some of the moves before they move. Um. Not
a lot of shows uh out there and on any
(23:22):
network nationwide worldwide can never have a team like we
have on our show that literally have the line moves
and and uh, you know, tell people what's going on
in real time when we have the weekend show also,
so uh, it's it's fun. It's been great, and I
look to uh encourage people to listen because what we're
(23:44):
doing is educating the public too. We're showing them the
things that happened, the real, live things that happened right
before our eyes. I see these lines of all now
moving down and I looked a bet over on on
and I think the it returns to the mean with
some of the overs this week. I do love the
group chat where you have like you right now, like
(24:06):
bet this now in all caps with like five exclamation points.
That's my favorite part. But of these over as you've
circled a couple of them, what's your favorite over of
the week right now? And before I get into that,
isn't it such a high? And I'm doing this thirty years,
but isn't it such a high? At the beginning when
I was doing this the first decade. It was such
(24:27):
a high when I actually send my buddies and my
partners and alright, guys, we're gonna bet this exactly ten
oh one am. And I would give him a countdown, five, four,
three to one, go and go be capital letters, exclamation points,
and in three minutes or two minutes they would see
everyone move a full point. We're literally controlling the NFL
(24:47):
market for the entire world. It's such a high. It's like,
you know, it's like well, like a drug addict running
for a drug. Half to high they get is running
for the drug and the procedure and of getting the
drug more than and then actually taking the drug. It's
but but of course our drug is is money and
money we will make money being on the right side
of line. So it's really a high getting the best
(25:09):
of the lines and and and um, we'll we'll see that.
I gave you guys a couple overs early in the week,
and as the season goes on, I'll get less market
respect because there's so much the lines are so much tighter,
and there's so much more two way action. Perfect example,
I gave you guys the Jets Green Bay over forty
(25:30):
four and a half I think it was, and the
commediately went to forty six and a half, and actually
there was a couple of forty seven's immediately got bounced
back down the forty five and a half. Now again
still got the best of it by a point. Um,
I kind of like that one. Still, Uh, there is
a couple of forty fives out there. I leaned to
the over in in that game. And again I hate
(25:51):
anyone betting a bad line, so I don't want to
give you something that's obtainable that I think is a
good number. Um, Tampa Pittsburgh. UM also is at at
forty four, which is still a good number. I think
to go over there. Um, I think Pittsburgh. Finally, I
think maybe Pickle will come around a little bit and
learn from his his his his time that he has
(26:14):
so far in the NFL. And um, I look I
look for for Brady to come around too. He really
didn't have a great game last week. They almost lost
that game in the end after being up twenty one nothing.
So uh, look for some more points, even though uh,
even though they haven't recently. Um. You know, when when
teams get ahead like that, That's why I like betting over,
(26:35):
and I may just do that in the first half, Spryan,
because these teams that get ahead, these big favorites that
get ahead, maybe like a Tampa, they'll slow that clock
down in the second half, where I'm better off going
over in the first half, which I didn't even send
out any of my people yet, but I think I'm
looking at the over first half twenty one and a
half twenty two there. Yeah, I hear you on that one.
(26:57):
That makes sense because look, man, what we just saw
the previous week doesn't always play itself out again the
next week. A lot of times it goes the other way.
But I can't help but think of the way the
Bill started off against Pittsburgh. You got Gabe Davis catching
these length of the field touchdown grabs pretty much, and then,
(27:18):
like you said, they took their foot off the gas
pedal at the end of the game and Pittsburgh only
scored three points. So yeah, the first half over might
make even more sense for Tampa Pittsburgh than a full
game over. Is that what you think? Yeah, because I'll
tell you, and now, even though I did at the
full game over, I'll probably bet more money on the
first half over because of the reasons I said, especially
(27:39):
when you get an eight point favorite, I supposed to
win by eight means they should be up by maybe
a double digit, up by ten, and they'll be doing
a lot more running in that fourth quarter. But hopefully
they went on their way to get that ten point lead.
They went over the forty four or maybe even thirty nine,
thirty eight. This way Pittsburgh can score maybe a backdoor
touched down or something and uh, you know, push push
(28:02):
it above the forty four. But I like the first
half over is only because you'll notice teams slowing the
ball down that are ahead by more than one score
and late in the fourth quarter. Yeah, how about this one?
Another great matchup, crack. You've got the Bills and the Chiefs.
Of course, everybody remembers the last game where the the
Bills had the lead with thirteen seconds to go, found
(28:24):
a way to lose that overtime game. So we get
at least the Week six rematch of that one in
the divisional playoffs. What do you think about Bill's Chiefs, Boy,
that's a that's supposed to be like when the scheduler
made that game, which is Howard Kat's friend of mine
actually Um, probably the most important job in the NFL,
UH is making that schedule. He's got it. He's got
(28:46):
a tough job there. Um that Buffalo Kansas City was
supposed to be like the Marquee great game. Uh. Both
teams have showed that they're human, that they can fail
this season. So Kansas City losing the the Colts and Buffalo,
you know, coming out of the gate two and two. Um,
you know after the big first week over the Rams.
(29:07):
These teams are listen this this year. There's more parody
this year than ever. I would not be betting any
futures on the Super Bowl, by the way, under ten
to one. I'm not this year anyone can win more
than ever. So, UM, this is still going to be
a good game. It's perfectly lined at two and a
half and maybe even a three. I see MGM has
(29:31):
a has a minus free even this that's probably the
right number. But I look for this to be a
really fun game to watch. Like I said, this was
supposed to be maybe like the game of the year
here as far as the schedulers go. Uh, you know,
top two teams to to win the Super Bowl, Uh
playing each other here in Week six I'm I don't
(29:52):
have a side on this game. I noticed the total
now as we speak at fifty four. That's a heck
of a lot of points, especially in in in a
year where we have unders. But uh, if any two
teams can do it, these are the teams that are
they supposed to be the offensive powerhouses. So this should
be fun on on a Sunday afternoon. It's an afternoon
(30:13):
game one West Coast time. One more, I want to
get your rapid fire thoughts on the Broncos against the
Chargers on Monday Night Football. And the last time we
saw Russell Wilson in company, they were scoring nine points
against the Colds Thursday Night Football. They have not exactly
unlocked their offense over there. What do you think about
(30:33):
Denver going up against the Chargers defense? Been pretty leaky
defensively as well. It's a four and a half. The
Chargers are favored by at bet MGM right now, this
game is open. That six went down to four and
a half, took and taking some Denver money. Uh. Denver
has put up a couple of clunkers this year, even
the TV game, Uh that that we're talking about, think
(30:54):
that was was that nine six? Brian, that score twelve nine,
twelve nine, okay, twelve nine, but no touchdowns scored? Is
that right? Twelve nine? Uh? Literally seven fields in the game.
Just a boring, boring game. And you may get the
same boring game here Chargers Denver. I have nothing on
(31:17):
this game right now. The totals has stayed almost exactly
the same forty five and a half forty six as
where it opens. Uh, listen, people, you know we have
on Jason from bet MGM every week. People tend to
love betting these primetime games. Uh, three times four three
x four x is the words he uses compared to
(31:37):
the regular games. I don't know if this game will
get three x four x volume out of it because
of the two teams involved here. Um. I actually thought
the Chargers were a good future bet at there around
twenty to one before the season started to to you know,
win the Super Bowl. Uh, they're they're probably twenty one now,
(31:58):
so obviously it wasn't that good of a bet. So,
but I mean, what we're gonna see what's gonna happen here?
Can they step up on on primetime TV and and
do something? Hey? What did I say here? The Chargers eighteen.
The one. I'm just looking now, um, this this should
be a game that you know, they have a chance
to maybe step up a little bit. And even Denver
they know they were uh, you know, they know they were.
(32:20):
They were kind of not that they're being booed in
the press, but you know, Wilson took some some heat,
uh from a couple of different angles here and a
couple of different people in media. One actually went after him,
I think on ESPN, like right after the game. Uh,
kind of went after him a little bit. I was
pretty surprised. So we'll see what happens here. See they
could step up real fast. Crack last one. I'm just
curious to get your thoughts on this one. Vikings at
(32:42):
the Dolphins. Dolphins are three and a half point home
underdog no to uh no Titty Bridgewater. They're both still
in concussion protocol, so you get Skyler Thompson and you know,
as well as I do, Crack, there are a lot
of betters that will say, oh, they're down to their
third string quarterback, that the Viking all day, all day,
and hey, that might be the right side, but there
(33:03):
are a lot of sharp betters that take advantage of
a situation like that with a home dog and might
ride with Miami. Do you have a lean either way
between the Vikings and Dolphins this Sunday? Yeah that this
this game moved from open. The three went the three
and a half quickly, and now you're right, it's probably
some of the sharper money coming back. There's only one
(33:24):
or two three and a half bet MGM is one
of the three and a half plus three and a
half minus fifteen on taking Miami there. I wouldn't be
so quick to to take Minnesota this game if you
have the look aheadline. Literally two weeks ago before UH
quarterback the quarterbacks went down, Miami was two and a
(33:45):
half point favorite. Now I don't know if that means
a six points a six point turnaround there. I don't
know if any quarterbacks worth six points, But I I
understand why the move came. It's not just one, it's two.
Looking at Uh, you know, a brand new, fresh quarterback
that's never really played in the NFL, UM this this
(34:07):
should be interesting. I wouldn't be looking at there's still
professional football team Miami, and they've definitely have played good
the first half of the year. UM well, the first
I guess the first I want to say the first
four or five games, I mean, they played good. I
wouldn't be so quick to count them out and see
when these guys can get healthy and come back. But
I'm definitely taking a hard pass on this game and
(34:28):
just seeing what happens. And I wouldn't be so quick
to even uh bet Minnesota or Miami this game. Maybe
just stand on the sidelines and watch. Hey, be sure
to check out the new looking features in the bed
MGM map. It's fast and easy access to the sports
you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions boost,
or the cash out feature. New users can use the
code countdown for a special offer. All right, definitely check
(34:52):
us out Fox Sports Radios. Count Down the Kickoff presented
by bet MGM Sundays three hours before kickoff. So let's
just use East Coast time ten am to one pm
Eastern time that early kickoff window three hours with Bill Crackenberger.
I'll tell you what. The dude is as sharp as
they come, as all kinds of insight. We have fun.
(35:12):
He told the crazy story last week, and I'll have
all sorts of picks for you. Also, our guy Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran. I'm Brian, though I'll be along
for the fun as well, So check us out this
Sunday for all the week sixth action
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