November 3, 2022 • 37 mins
Brian Noe previews the weekend in the NFL and college football with the sharpest betting minds in the business! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins to talk a pair of gigantic SEC matchups: Tennessee vs. Georgia and Alabama vs. LSU. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to preview the full slate of NFL action, including the Buccaneers vs. Rams and Titans vs. Chiefs!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you college fans? Welcome to the biggest tailgate party
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(00:21):
team win. Let's go. We're here to break it all down.
Let's go, Let's go. This is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown
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tail game. Here's Brian No everybody, what's going on. It's
Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
(00:45):
The podcast podcast edition. We've got Jared Smith, lead betting
analysts from fix wise dot com. We'll talk college football
with him in just a minute. Here. Also have NFL
stuff with Bill kracken Burger, our guy crack sports handicapper
from rack Waynes dot com. He'll be with us here
at about fifteen minutes or so. New users download the
(01:05):
bet MGM app today and use code countdown for a
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So we welcome in Jared Smith to talk some college
ball right here on the pod. Let's start it off, Jared,
Let's dive right on in we're not getting into the
shallow end and kind of easing into the bull We're
doing a cannon ball right saw this week, No shallow
(01:29):
end this week, some great matchups. Let's start it off
Number one Tennessee. How about the number one Tennessee going
on the road against the defending champion, number three ranked
Georgia Bulldogs. So they get dissed with the rankings, but
they get some love with the point spread favored by
(01:49):
eight points right now at bet MGM. Yeah, so who
do you Who do you trust more to accurately predict
who's gonna win this game? The College Football Playoff Committee
or the odds makers that do this for a living,
um every day and not just a few times a
year in a big room. Um. No, listen, I think
the first rankings are kind of, you know, window dressing.
(02:10):
It doesn't really have a whole lot of meaning because
this is all going to sort itself out, and this
is gonna be the first step in that process. We
are seeing an overwhelming amount of money come in on
the underdog here, and it looks like this is going
to be and we'll get James McGee if we do
have him on the lead. Trader from bed MGM on
you Know on Saturday show to confirm this, but I
(02:30):
would assume it probably will be the most liability of
the entire weekend, which is Tennessee out right, Tennessee covering
the spread, etcetera, etcetera. My contrarian brain immediately tries to
figure out a way to bet Georgia, and I think
if it gets back to seven, that would be where
the professional money likely steps in. That's probably where I
would be comfortable betting Georgia, because, let's be honest, George's
(02:51):
had some performances this year that have kind of been
up and down. Tennessee obviously the impressive win over Alabama,
but Therapy fense was really you know, exposed in that game,
even though Alabama's offense hasn't had an explosive season. So
I could see Georgia putting up a ton of points
in this game and definitely scoring enough to cover the
spread and feel comfortable. The question is strength on strength
(03:12):
Georgia's defense against Tennessee's offense. How does that matchup play out.
We'll dive in a little more on Saturday with some
of the you know game within the games here, but
I kind of lean to Georgia early on because I
do think they're gonna win the game. We'll see if
they cover the spread. The number obviously is going to
be important. And I also think, look, man styles make fights.
George's offense has been very underrated. Yes, m yeah, and
(03:37):
against this Tennessee defense not exactly the college version of
the eight five bears out there. I don't know what
if we can backtrack for a second, Kentucky's offensive line
is just off. Will Leo was the first round talent
in We were doubting that, right you're but there are
(03:58):
a lot of people that say he could be your
first He didn't do anything against Tennessee's defense last last week,
but against this Georgia offense, a lot more playmakers and
a much better offensive line Georgia has. I just think
this cliffs notes version if you think back to the
(04:18):
Tennessee win at home against Alabama and they were around
up like an eight and a half point dog, very
similar to this line against Georgia. And I just think
sometimes you can be misled by what has happened in
the past at home compared to what will happen on
the road against Georgia. It's just a much much different
(04:41):
spot for Tennessee. If you're thinking about backing him this week,
I agree, and I'll be honest, even if you go
back to the first quarter of that game against Kentucky
se success rate for the Wildcats rushing the football. They
got on the scoreboard early, they ran the ball early,
and then Will Levis crapped on his leg and then
the rest of the game the game script got so
(05:03):
lopsided that they abandoned the run. So I think George
is gonna have success running the football. I think Todd
Munkin is gonna come up with some fun play action,
you know, getting his guys wide open in space. This
Tennessee secondary has really struggled and George is George is not,
you know, the greatest show on turf. But again, Stetson
Bennett's been there before, and I think this is a
(05:26):
good spot for him at home against the passing defense
that can be had. So if they can protect I
I and if Stetson can play turnover free, George is
gonna have some opportunities to score some points in this game.
No doubt they definitely will. How about this matchup Number four,
Clemson at Notre Dame. Notre Dame a four point underdog.
(05:47):
The total stands out to me to Jared forty four
and a half. That's like, whoa, that's some NFL stuff, right,
college football? Forty four and a half. But you start
thinking about this matchup. If Will Shipley doesn't run a
ball very effectively, then you've got d j u back
behind center. How good of a game does he play?
(06:08):
And then you look at Notre Dame if they're not
able to run the ball effectively they were last week
against Syracuse. You got Drew Pine, who I'll say this
quiet like something here in South Bend. He sucks freaking terrible.
Jared's so, if you've got two offenses that can't run
the ball effectively or consistently, this could become really ugly
really quick, especially with wind gusts supposed to be around
(06:31):
forty miles per hour at times, so it might not
be the best weather in South Bend on Saturday as well.
There's a lot of conflicting market indicators here, and I
think it's because there's very respected money on both sides
of this game. It reminds me of the usc Utah
(06:52):
game a few weeks ago where we saw it kind
of move through three, then back to three, and it
looks like three and a half kind of the consensus here.
And I've seen it go as high as four and
a half and as low as three, and I think
that's kind of a tight range we're gonna be in,
you know, heading to the weekend here, we've already seen
obviously a big move to the under. You mentioned it
because of the weather. And let's be honest. Both offenses,
(07:15):
especially Notre Dame, very limited a hundred and twentieth and
marginal explosiveness. They do not stretch the field. They don't
have a game breaking wide receiver. They do have a
beast of a tight end who is a mismatch in
the red zone, and they run the ball efficiently. It's
not explosive, but it's four or five six yards to carry,
(07:36):
and they set Drew Pine up in third and second
and manageables and you hope he doesn't make the big
mistake that ruins the game. That's the that's the script
for Notre Dame. The script for Clemson is d J
you with a week off, where is his head? Because
you could you can make a case for both directions.
Four turnovers against Syracuse. You don't finish the game, the
(07:57):
other guy comes in and wins it, and then you
sit and do on that for two weeks. Is it
a positive reaction or does he lose his confidence so
early because he's looking over his shoulder. I could see
it going in both directions, especially on the road, bad weather,
hostile environment, Notre Dame's defense relatively underperforming. I could see
Clemson just bullying them, But I could make a taste.
(08:19):
D Ju commits an early turnover, ball slips out of
his hands on a design run, and all of a sudden,
it's a it's a downhills, you know, slippery slope from there.
So I got ahead of the market at four with
Notre Dame. If it gets back to three, I'll probably
take a nibble on Clemson and hope a low total
game lends either three or four and then I can't lose.
(08:39):
So that's my initial strategy. But early le Notre Dame.
But I'll be honest, I don't really fully trust your pine,
and I'm sure you don't either. No, I certainly don't
know how crazy is it? Just two years ago dj
U uncle uncle Lay a freshman at the time, filling
in for Trevor Lawrence who had COVID and he went
crazy against Notre aim. It was a double overtime loss
(09:01):
for Clemson, but he threw for four hundred thirty nine
yards and two touchdowns. He looked spectacular. He was a
highs bean hopeful, and then you fast forward to the
here and now last game, he's getting benched for Kaid
club Nick. So it's just it's crazy how it's worked
out for d j Ui because I thought he had
star potential written all over him, and it just it
(09:23):
hasn't worked out that way with Clemson for him. Yeah,
you know, this is a this is a Clemson team
that a lot of people are saying this week. And
I don't want to get hot taking too much, but
what what why are they so high in the rankings?
I mean, listen, this is a Clemson team that deserves
(09:43):
respect because they still have the name, and they play
in a conference that's so bad that you know they're
going to be in the conference championship every year. And
it's you know, inches here on on one side of
the ball that that's going to either separate them from
the cultur will playoff or not. And I think the committee,
you know, forward face thinking listen, Clems, it's probably gonna
win this game, and they're probably gonna win the a CEC,
So we might as well just put him in now
(10:04):
because we're gonna have to put him in at some point,
and I we don't know if that's gonna be the
case if they go lay an egg here on on
on on on Saturday. But man, DJ, you, what would
your mindset be? Bran? You know, you're you're a twenty
year old kid and you just turned it over four
times and the other kid comes in and wins the game,
and you're sitting on that for two weeks. I mean,
you would think the reaction will be positive, but I'm
(10:27):
not so sure, to be honest with you. Yeah, it's
a weird thing. I think it's two things. I think
that you're motivated heading in obviously, like seeing your job
starting to slip away a bit, you're super motivated. But
the real test is if things go wrong, if you
throw an interception, if you have a bad read, if
you miss a wide open receiver for a touchdown, then
(10:50):
how do you feel what's your mindset? Then? Do you
let it roll off? Or like you said, are you
looking over your shoulder like is club Nick warming up?
Am I getting pulled right now? Like that's not a
good spot to be an, Let's go to another game here.
It's kind of weird. Bit. I don't know if you've
ever gone to like Lollapalooza or oz Fast or any
of these concerts, My mind goes there where Alabama at
(11:12):
l s U. It seems like when the bands are
not in the right order, you know what I mean,
Like Tennessee Georgia's the headliner and it's before Alabama and
l s U in primetime where you're kind of like,
why is this band closing the whole thing? They should
be the band, like the warm up band. It's weird
that Alabama and ls YOU are in that spot, but
(11:33):
they certainly are this week the opening act. What's What's
so we're the opening act for the show that comes
after ours on Saturday, right Like we're like the where
we warm up the crowd for all that for all
the stars that come later. But listen, this this Alabama
game has got some stars too. I think Jade Daniel
is a very underrated player in this country, and I
think it's it's it's unfortunate that he plays with a
(11:57):
coach that maybe mutes his talent a little bit. It
because they, you know, they run a pro style offense,
and Brian Kelly and those pro style offenses really haven't
given Nick Saban a ton of problems over the years.
It's been the more mobile quarterbacks historically that have given
Alabama problems. But even that narrative, I think I could
poke some holes in because I saw some numbers that
(12:17):
are very positive for Alabama's defense against kJ Jefferson and
hand and Hooker this year. And I know they scored
a bunch of points Tennessee did in that game, but
they held handon Hookers running his legs in check. And
they did the same to kJ Jefferson. Now, they did
win that Arkansas game by by a pretty big margin,
so I can say Alabama's defense maybe improving a little
bit against the mobile quarterbacks. The interesting thing with Daniels
(12:40):
here l s U's off to buy and again Daniels
is starting to play well, So the confidence level is
increasing in this offense. And when he's on target, when
he's on schedule, you're seeing him one of the more efficient,
you know, throwers and runners in the country. So the
question to me is how is LS, you're gonna protect
Jane Daniels because they're off its of line hasn't played
(13:01):
well this year. And you know you got Alabama with
Will Anderson and Dallas Turner and Brasil. I mean, they've
got guys who can get after the quarterback. And the
Tiger's offensive line numbers as I say, you know, outside
the top one, and a lot of these havoc and
sack grate categories that I look at. So I'm a
little concerned with L s U protecting Jaden Daniels. But
on the other side, I can make a case that
(13:21):
L s US defense maybe as a chance to stop
the run here. If they can sell out and if
they can get Bryce Young into some longer you know,
you know, known passing situations, then they can cover up
for a secondary that's really struggled too. So it's all
about stopping the run, and it's all about trying to
figure out a way to keep Jane Daniels upright. If
ellis you can do those two thinks, death Valley at night,
(13:42):
maybe some weather in the forecast. I've seen stranger things
happen in college football, no doubt, Oh, no doubt. Yeah,
And look, man, for Obama Eli Ricks being back their
stud cornerbacks might be a first round draft pick. That's
a big, big deal. And he transferred from l s U.
So he goes up against his former team. That's a
really interesting matchup to watch against Jaden Daniels who has
(14:03):
been very good. But it's a mixed bag. It's it's weird,
like Boots he had the six catches for a buck
fifteen and then he was like invisible and Jaden Daniels
just running all over the place. So he's been Jaden
Daniels had a good season, but I want to see
him up against this Alabama secondary that's getting healthier. I
want to see what he does and uh, if he's
(14:25):
able to keep that Bama defense off balance with the
run past threat right there, We'll close it out on
this because you got your eye on Wake Forest over here.
Wake Forest against NC State. NC State is a four
point home underdog. What do you think about Wake and
the wolf Pack in this one? Yeah, So we gave
out Louisville last week against Wake and now I'm kind
(14:46):
of reversing course. And when I watched so I watched
that entire louis Allway game. The third quarter especially was
particularly entertaining for me with the Louisville ticket. If you
had a Wake ticket, you wanted to rip your hair
out because louis Wake force turned to over on like
five straight possessions. They had eight turnovers in the game.
I mean that is again, and this is a Wake
(15:07):
offense that's not very explosive with big five star athletes
all over the field. They're very efficient and they run
a very you know, tight ship and and Sam Hartman
is you know, the trigger man, and he's been that
throughout the course of his career. But this was just
one of those clunkers where everything Louisville touch turned to
gold and everything Sam Hartman touch turned turned to a
(15:28):
fumble or an interception. So I I liked to buy
low vibes though after an outlier performance like that. And
when you look at NC State very limited offensively now
post Evan Leary, they go from the running quarterback, the
you know, the the the FCS transfer Chambers who came
from Charleston Southern, who was just a disaster against Syracuse
(15:49):
and you know last week as well, and then they
they bench him against against votech and they go to M. J.
Morris and he goes goes off three touchdown drives and
and you know, big comeback win for ENCI s eight. Well,
now you're gonna have Wake Forest with some tape on
on on this kid. And also NC State, which is
known for their defense, really struggles to stop the slow mesh.
(16:11):
How about this A hundred and twenty three points in
the last three games between these two teams for Wake Force.
So NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who's been in
town for three years, has had three chances to stop
the slow mesh and he's failed all three times. So
I could see Wake even though this is a road
game and this is a big rivalry in the home field,
advantage will be prominent. I think Wakes are in a
(16:32):
good spot to bounce back here. Man, I'll tell you what.
The slow mesh a site for sore eyes, but it's
effective when run properly. But you mix the slow mesh
just how it looks with eight turnovers. Last, Oh, that
is a horror movie right there. Yeah, it was. It
(16:53):
was great for us with Louisville though it was it
was It was a comedy for me. But yes, if
you had Wake, it was a horror movie. It's a
rom com for you or I was very happy with that. Okay,
so check us out on Saturday. Right, We'll have three
hours for you leading up to kickoff, so nine am
(17:16):
to noon Eastern time. We'll get you all set for
all the action, really really healthy slate of college games.
So definitely check us out on Fox Sports Radio for that.
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(17:36):
the King of sports books. All right, let's welcome in
Bill Crack and Burger. Let's talk to NFL sports handicapper
from crack wins dot com and Crack we're looking on
all these games. It's funny our podcast should be before
we start talking, because it's pretty good. You know, the
podcast for the podcast to be pretty good is today's
(17:57):
conversation was good. I'll think about how to spin on that.
We can talk about it in the future. That sounds good, man.
Let's start with the Thursday night game. We're recording this
on Thursday afternoon. Still a handful of hours to get
in on this game if you want to. You mentioned
that Circa. It's all the way up to fourteen where
Philly is favored by two touchdowns on the road against
(18:18):
the Houston Texans. You feel anything in this game tonight,
crack listen. I value with Circus on because Circus one
of the sharp sports books in town. They take the
biggest limits of anybody. And uh, you know, on the NFL,
if you're willing to put up a million bucks, you
go down there as Derek Stevens, he'll he'll take a
million dollars on the game. I was with him the
other day. I was filming a documentary for a German
(18:40):
TV station, him and I and literally he's like, I'll
take two on any game. But if you want to
come up to me and they asked me for a
certain game, I'll, you know, I'll take up to a
million bucks on a game. I mean, so I have
to go by them because they're taking the sharpest bets too,
not only the square guys that want to bet that
giant money, but the sharpest I looked to even the
world everies. Tonight, Like tonight, here we have game five,
(19:04):
uh and and Circus begging begging for Houston Astros bets.
I mean they're just begging. Yeah. So everyone after seeing
philed up you're getting no hit and threw up a
really looking a clunker. They really Um, you know, everyone said,
oh God, Houston's gonna kill him. Now it's over now, Verlander,
it's over now. Well that's never the way it works.
(19:24):
So I'm not not saying that Houston is gonna win
the World Series. But I'm just not gonna win. I'm
just saying that I go by certain sports books as indicators,
and Circus one of them. And Circu has a fourteen
on the Eagle game tonight. So uh, they're one of
the only fourteens circle and the win everyone else is
thirteen and a half. Really um for the most part,
(19:45):
So this is a game I said that. You know,
the Eagles first half has been a has been good
for me. Um. I know, I had a really big
plan a couple of weeks ago versus Arizona where they
won fourteen to ten. That one they almost lost because
Arizona was driving at the goal line. Um. But I
I don't know the record, but it might they might
have won every game. They might have covered every game.
I think that maybe they well lost one versus spread,
(20:06):
they're really good in the first half. I just can't
lay that number. I can't go over the seven and
lay eight on the road. Seven and a half on
the road. I'm not no way. I think Houston comes
out a little bit tougher anyway in this game. So
we'll see what happens. So listen, Philadelphia, everyone's saying is
the best team in football. Well, let's see what happens
down the road. It seems like Philadelphia never has closing
(20:26):
power in any sports. Something like they just don't have
the heart to be one of those teams, one of
those whether it's football, basketball, baseball. I'm rooting for him though,
I'm rooting for him to to to win the World Series.
But um, they're definitely an underdog there. So I don't know.
This game is a game that you just I know,
everyone has to have action on the Thursday in that game.
(20:46):
They have to have action on the TV game. It's
the reason why the sports books are built and the
big casinos have luxury towers because people have to have actions. So, um,
I'll just tell you I'm gonna probably stay away from
the game. If anything, I'll tell you if I had to,
if I'm forced to bet anything, I may lean to
the over a little bit. If Philadelphia can, um, if
(21:07):
if you ustill keep up maybe in the game and
make it a competitive game, that will force Philadelphia to
keep that offense going. UM. It just seems like that
that could be a way to go. Maybe even a
first half over over twenties three A lean, just a lean, nothing,
nothing crazy. I have to ask you about. We'll get
back to the pics and the games and all that.
But you're filming a dock for a German TV station.
(21:31):
Is that this German? This was a lot bigger than
I thought. So I went down to I actually got
a d M and I was asked to go down
to UM. Derek asked if you can go down there
because they need a couple of guys that make a
living in sports betting. So I went down. I didn't
expect that, and they had three camera crews. So they've
interviewed all these hockey players. I'm not sorry. I'm sorry
(21:52):
hockey also, but soccer. They're over and over over a
broad interview and like messy and talking about gambling and
like that. You know they're there there there's actually a
bigger production than what I thought. Um, like I said,
three cameras. I was pretty surprised to see that. Uh
but yeah, yeah, so we we interviewed this who knows
what to believe where it's even gonna be shown. I
(22:12):
just I was asked to do it, and I did
it as a favor, and and uh, it was in
the middle of Saturday. I just flew back, uh from
Connecticut on Saturday, I literally got an hour of power
nap and ran down there and filmed for about an hour.
And then the next day on Sunday, I was down
there with Derek. Um. He had a nice orange shoot on.
Derek is like, I don't know if you any you
(22:33):
guys know Derek Stevens Is. He's the Ace Rothstein from Casino.
He has the pinks, the blues, the light blues, the
aqua blue, the greens. He dresses so colorful, so bright,
so loud. I mean, he is just so cool man.
He just like you think about the guy owns three
casinos and he's downtown at the bar every night, hanging
out with the regular customers, taking pictures and saying, yeah,
(22:54):
come on in, guys, hey have a drink. On me.
I mean, he's the last of the Mohicans old school throwback.
So we did do this show. We'll see what happens. Nice. Okay,
So let's go to, uh, the Colts and Patriots. You're
looking at the total here, it's thirty nine and a half.
If you do a quick preview of this game, you
look at the Colts, they go to Sam Ellinger, look
(23:15):
like they had the game, an ugly low scoring game
against Washington. They allowed ten points late and they lose
the game. Frank Reich, he fired the offensive coordinator. He's
the facto offensive coordinator right now. It seems like the
Colts are started starting to circle the drain in twenty
twenty two, where Frank Reich might be out of a job.
They're cleaning house. This is a huge game for the Colts.
(23:39):
I just don't know that they're good enough against the Patriots.
But thirty nine and a half? What are you thinking
about the total in this one? Yeah? You know, thirty
nine and a half At MGM, I see that their
circus still has that I leanked to the over in
this game. Uh in New England, Indie. This this is
like you said, this is a giant game for Indie.
I mean, they seem to think still, and I guess
(23:59):
they are because the whole division is nothing special. They
seem to think they're in playoff contention. Still. It's kind
of early to say, but uh uh so, so they're
gonna they're they're gonna want to hang around with New
England here and and uh this is one of the
lowest totals. I think it is the lower Yeah, this
is the lowest total of the week. So I just
(24:19):
I leaned to the over here and I may even
release over nineteen nineteen half the nineteen and a half
first half here. I haven't yet, but that's a game
I looked towards the overlooked, look for indeed to hang
with New England a little bit and hopefully they go over. Man,
I'll tell you what real fast. Sam Ellinger broke my
heart not hitting his over rushing shop. He rushed for
(24:41):
twenty yards down the stretch of the game. Holding penalty
brought it back. He would have been easy over if
not for that. And it really wasn't a call that
sprung him. You know, sometimes you break a big run
because of the hole. It really wasn't because of that
made it even worse. I didn't see that. That makes
the stemas that makes that bet sting more. I had
(25:01):
that over pretty much for here, stinging right there. How
about this one Rams against Tampa total is forty two
and a half. Cooper Cup is expected to play. We
didn't know if that that ankle injury was gonna keep
him out, but he's expected to play. What do you
think in this one? We just saw Tampa's defense. They
(25:23):
had no answer for the Baltimore Ravens in the second half.
The Ravens just ran all over them. Their tongues were
hitting the grass. They were so worn out Tampa was
What do you think about Rams Tampa forty two and
a half as a total? Talk about a vanilla line.
Every single sports book in the world on my screen,
and I have thirty of them, has forty two and
(25:43):
a half. There's not one difference anywhere U. I leaned
to the over in this game. Also, I'm looking for
some of these games to return to the mean. Um,
you know, unders other way to go this season hitting
it over and uh, I'm expecting some of these games
to return to the mean that the bookmaker has lowered
these totals, you know, down from an opening line where
(26:06):
this type of game may that may have opened forty
three and a half, but they know under is the
way to go this year because of the the defense,
the defensive schemes, except for maybe Tampa in that game.
You're right, they've been forcing. They've been changing it up
so much this year and it brings it brings so
much parody to the league. Uh. Like I said, they've
been throwing underneath instead of throwing the long ball a lot,
(26:29):
so they're not They're not getting that many plays out
on offense as they were in previous season. This is
almost widespread, blanket statement of over the whole NFL. I mean,
we see what happened with Green Bay. Uh Rogers, the
big powerhouse quarterback. They ran the ball in the second
half and literally covered the game because they ran the ball.
I think they ran the first nine of third team
(26:50):
plays when they were down you know, double digits, which
is very unusual for any team, never mind a big
team like that. So um, I I do lean to
the to the over here trying to buck this trend
of unders, and uh listen, the rams are just wow.
I can't it's hard to even believe this is the
Super Bowl team. It really is Jesus. So you look
(27:11):
at this team, it's wow, it looks like they look
like garbage. But I'm hoping they could exploit that defense
a little bit and uh, they can make a game
out of this and and the game goes over. I
wanted to get your opinion on this one. Chargers at
the Falcons. The total is forty nine and a half,
and I like the over. I know we're just giving
out over is left and right here, but think about
(27:31):
it this way, crack Atlanta's secondary is really banged up.
Their corners are decimated. You saw Carolina throw the ball
and hit some huge plays the d J Moore play
down the stretch last week. What do you think Justin
Herbert and the Chargers are gonna do. They're gonna be
able to pass the football against Atlanta And then you
(27:51):
look at the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses.
That's all Atlanta does on offense is run the ball effectively.
So forty nine and a half are you with me?
Do you see this going over and getting to at
least fifty You know it's it's one of the it's
the highest line game for the week. But if it's
only the highest line game because they've seen seventy one
points last week. But then again, if you look at it,
(28:14):
they allowed thirty four verse the Panthers, they allowed thirty five.
I believe it was against Let me to see that.
I think thirty five against the Bengals. Yeah, thirty five
against the Bengals week before that before. I mean, they're
they're allowing some points. Um this year. You know, you
go back to earlier in the season, h Rams Falcons
(28:36):
thirty one. The next week, they put up a fifty
the week they put up fifty three in the first week.
This has been an over team no matter who they play.
It looks like, um, so this this I guess the
bookmakers have lined the game like this is going to
go over, So I will. I'll be rooting with you.
I'm not betting it actually per se, not yet anyway,
(28:57):
things changed, situations changed, and things warrant that's uh, closer
to game time, it's rare. But I liked about earlier
in the week. But yeah, I can see this game
going over. What you sure there's one that you like
as far as an under the same total forty nine
and a half. It's the Seahawks Arizona Cardinals game. Why
do you like the under in that one? Crape? The
Cardinals Seahawks game opened up. It's it's amazing that late
(29:21):
in the season, here we are in week nine. It's
hard to believe. Wow saying week nine has been eight
weeks in the NFL. Wow week nine, though, The respect
that the bookmaker gives the sharp betters even goes down
because these lines are so good, they're so tight. This
particular line opened up forty nine and a half and
(29:41):
it's still forty nine and a half. A matter of fact,
I'm looking there's actually two sizars in South Point as fifty,
so they're they're good numbers to play the under. If
you guys liked uh, we would agree with me here
on the under. Here. I just think we're gonna see uh.
These teams also return into them. Me. Listen, everyone loves
the like. One of the biggest talks right now still
(30:03):
is the Seattle Seahawks. So I I understand it, just
don't they They just don't look like they're going to
be to me, I don't know that they are. Are
they that playoff team that people are talking about now?
I mean people are literally saying that you know that
that this this team could be in the playoffs. Well,
they beat the Giants last week. We know that the
Giants was due for a losing game, but I mean
(30:27):
they're on a little bit of a role. They beat
the Chargers. Uh, they beat the Cardinals a few weeks earlier,
nineteen to nine, and I'm hoping that's the same type
of a game, uh, nineteen and nine type of game.
I don't know if it's gonna be that low, but um,
I'm just not so big on the Seahawks like everyone
else is. I guess. Listen, they beat the Lions in
(30:47):
that one, gave me scored forty eight points. It was
just there's so many indicators in the market here, back
and forth. The reason why this line is this high.
I just feel that it shouldn't be this this high.
We we we have some uh some stats behind that,
and I think it's gonna be a lower scoring game,
and I think it's going to be the same type
of game, hopefully that they had a few weeks back.
(31:09):
I have to get your opinion on a couple of
games with huge point spreads. On Sunday, it's uh, the
Bills at the Jets. So the Jets are twelve and
a half point home underdogs. Clear lack of faith in
Zach Wilson. Zack through three interceptions last week against the Patriots.
Two of them were terrible. You're just trying to throw
the ball away. They turned out to be interceptions. But
(31:31):
we know how talented Buffalo is. Crack but we've seen
this routinely. This could be a sleepy spot for them,
just off of a a primetime game. You're playing the Jets. Yeah,
it's a divisional rival, but every now and then they
have that sleep walking performance. Would you be tempted to
play the Jets plus twelve and a half? Well, I'll
tell you it. Open up thirteen and it looks like
(31:54):
to me that there's twelves now out there. So it
may not go back to third team, but yet on
Sunday you may get one rogue sports book to put
up the thirteen. Again, I didn't bet it, but I wouldn't.
You know. You guys know me. I'm a routine I
never ever ever will lay double digit anyway in the NFL.
I'll be looking to take the dog. If anything, old
(32:14):
division rival here, Buffalo could be overlooking them. Even you
don't know, because the situations do warrant that sometimes they
just came like you said, they just came off off
a game where they primetime game. Um, you know it.
It's it's not beyond me though to think that that, uh,
that this team can actually lose the game. Who knows.
(32:36):
I mean, listen, we all we I mean we've been
saying it every week. Buffalo lost last year to Jacksonville.
They were seventeen point favorites. It's primarily the same exact squad. So, um,
you know, it's not beyond reach here that that Buffalo
can can blow this game. So we'll see what happens.
And uh, like I said, I'm not betting the Jets game.
(33:00):
U um, you know any anything. I'm not batting the
Jets I mean, but if it goes to thirteen and
may be tempted, who knows, sometimes they get tempted with
those half of points. How about this one too, the
Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is getting no respect at all, I
mean the road talk about respect. I mean, it's hard
(33:21):
to believe that Tennessee is not. Boy, this is another
one of those games. Man, they just you shake your
head and you wouldn't be surprised with Kansas City having
to buy you know, Kansas City, maybe you know, blowing
them out to who I mean at home. It could happen.
That's what's crazy, though, is the Titans the quietest five
(33:41):
and two team in football easily. They have the same
record as the Chiefs. And we just saw Derrick Henry
go ballistic last week against the Houston Texans. Yeah, they
just haven't beat anybody. They really haven't beat anybody. I
mean that the Giants beat them. The Bills destroyed them
by thirty four, so you might have the same type
of game here. They just haven't I mean, they beat
(34:03):
the Raiders, they beat the Commanders, the Cults twice, UM Tech,
the Texans. I mean, they really haven't been anyone. So uh,
they haven't played any one of dominant force. But however,
they are a better team than they were in the
beginning of the season two, UM, a little bit healthier
of a team. So this should the game opened up
(34:24):
eleven up the twelve and a half already, don't be
I won't be surprised to see this one go to
go to thirteen. Also, but again this they're they're do
Last week we had two double digit favorites win. Uh,
Like they said there, they're probably due for a couple
more of these big favorites winning. There was a time
in history that betting the money line for years and years,
(34:47):
betting money line in the NFL on double digit favorites
would return you money year after year betting all the
ten and a half or ten point favorites are higher.
I would never do it. It's it's very rare. I'll
do it only if I know the money line is
is not in line with the actual spread, then I'll
then I'll do that. But um again, this this is
(35:08):
uh primetime game. Was we'll see. I think Tennessee. You know,
Tennessee has learned from earlier in the season they got
blown out from Buffalo. I don't think they're gonna get
blown out like that this week. So let's see what
happens before we close here. Crack, I just have this
feeling that you suffered some monstrous loss at some point.
Do I have that wrong where you just said, oh
(35:29):
my gosh, I'm gonna lay the twelve points on this
favorite and it blew up in your face. Was there
any horror story that led to you being just dead
set against taking a favorite and laying that type of
a point spread. So you're saying, in my history, if
I ever laid double digits on on on something or
or whatever, you're saying, yeah, it's just because you're so
dead set against it. I wondered if there was a
(35:49):
big loss at some point during your betting career, you know,
maybe when I was a teenager. I mean, I I
haven't done that in years. I haven't done I haven't
laid double digits in years, and and I just know
that underdogs historically is the way to go in almost
any event. Now, that's not to say that I haven't
evolved and realized that that has changed over the years.
(36:12):
There was a time where you could just bet any
prime time home underdog with the points for years tracking
you were a winner just doing that blindly. That is
not the case anymore. The bookmaker has caught up with that.
The lines are tougher than ever, harder than ever. Um.
But however, uh no, not that I can. When I
(36:33):
was a kid. Maybe when I was a kid, I
would be Now I'm not gonna say sucker, it's too
strong of a word, but I was a kid, I
would bet double there's no I know what happens. I
know what happens here after year. You know, two years ago,
I was on a major station, major network, and on
a Sunday, and I was doing a show on a
Sunday with the guys, and both seventeen point favorites lost
(36:55):
that day outright, like that can't happen and fell ironed outline.
Both favorites lost. It was like the fifth week of
the season. It just teaches you that any given Sunday,
anything cannon will happen. I know, it's like beating a
horse saying that I'm sorry, guys. No, no, You're totally fine. Hey.
Be sure to check out the new looking features in
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(00:45):
The podcast podcast edition. We've got Jared Smith, lead betting
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So we welcome in Jared Smith to talk some college
ball right here on the pod. Let's start it off, Jared,
Let's dive right on in we're not getting into the
shallow end and kind of easing into the bull We're
doing a cannon ball right saw this week, No shallow
(01:29):
end this week, some great matchups. Let's start it off
Number one Tennessee. How about the number one Tennessee going
on the road against the defending champion, number three ranked
Georgia Bulldogs. So they get dissed with the rankings, but
they get some love with the point spread favored by
(01:49):
eight points right now at bet MGM. Yeah, so who
do you Who do you trust more to accurately predict
who's gonna win this game? The College Football Playoff Committee
or the odds makers that do this for a living,
um every day and not just a few times a
year in a big room. Um. No, listen, I think
the first rankings are kind of, you know, window dressing.
(02:10):
It doesn't really have a whole lot of meaning because
this is all going to sort itself out, and this
is gonna be the first step in that process. We
are seeing an overwhelming amount of money come in on
the underdog here, and it looks like this is going
to be and we'll get James McGee if we do
have him on the lead. Trader from bed MGM on
you Know on Saturday show to confirm this, but I
(02:30):
would assume it probably will be the most liability of
the entire weekend, which is Tennessee out right, Tennessee covering
the spread, etcetera, etcetera. My contrarian brain immediately tries to
figure out a way to bet Georgia, and I think
if it gets back to seven, that would be where
the professional money likely steps in. That's probably where I
would be comfortable betting Georgia, because, let's be honest, George's
(02:51):
had some performances this year that have kind of been
up and down. Tennessee obviously the impressive win over Alabama,
but Therapy fense was really you know, exposed in that game,
even though Alabama's offense hasn't had an explosive season. So
I could see Georgia putting up a ton of points
in this game and definitely scoring enough to cover the
spread and feel comfortable. The question is strength on strength
(03:12):
Georgia's defense against Tennessee's offense. How does that matchup play out.
We'll dive in a little more on Saturday with some
of the you know game within the games here, but
I kind of lean to Georgia early on because I
do think they're gonna win the game. We'll see if
they cover the spread. The number obviously is going to
be important. And I also think, look, man styles make fights.
George's offense has been very underrated. Yes, m yeah, and
(03:37):
against this Tennessee defense not exactly the college version of
the eight five bears out there. I don't know what
if we can backtrack for a second, Kentucky's offensive line
is just off. Will Leo was the first round talent
in We were doubting that, right you're but there are
(03:58):
a lot of people that say he could be your
first He didn't do anything against Tennessee's defense last last week,
but against this Georgia offense, a lot more playmakers and
a much better offensive line Georgia has. I just think
this cliffs notes version if you think back to the
(04:18):
Tennessee win at home against Alabama and they were around
up like an eight and a half point dog, very
similar to this line against Georgia. And I just think
sometimes you can be misled by what has happened in
the past at home compared to what will happen on
the road against Georgia. It's just a much much different
(04:41):
spot for Tennessee. If you're thinking about backing him this week,
I agree, and I'll be honest, even if you go
back to the first quarter of that game against Kentucky
se success rate for the Wildcats rushing the football. They
got on the scoreboard early, they ran the ball early,
and then Will Levis crapped on his leg and then
the rest of the game the game script got so
(05:03):
lopsided that they abandoned the run. So I think George
is gonna have success running the football. I think Todd
Munkin is gonna come up with some fun play action,
you know, getting his guys wide open in space. This
Tennessee secondary has really struggled and George is George is not,
you know, the greatest show on turf. But again, Stetson
Bennett's been there before, and I think this is a
(05:26):
good spot for him at home against the passing defense
that can be had. So if they can protect I
I and if Stetson can play turnover free, George is
gonna have some opportunities to score some points in this game.
No doubt they definitely will. How about this matchup Number four,
Clemson at Notre Dame. Notre Dame a four point underdog.
(05:47):
The total stands out to me to Jared forty four
and a half. That's like, whoa, that's some NFL stuff, right,
college football? Forty four and a half. But you start
thinking about this matchup. If Will Shipley doesn't run a
ball very effectively, then you've got d j u back
behind center. How good of a game does he play?
(06:08):
And then you look at Notre Dame if they're not
able to run the ball effectively they were last week
against Syracuse. You got Drew Pine, who I'll say this
quiet like something here in South Bend. He sucks freaking terrible.
Jared's so, if you've got two offenses that can't run
the ball effectively or consistently, this could become really ugly
really quick, especially with wind gusts supposed to be around
(06:31):
forty miles per hour at times, so it might not
be the best weather in South Bend on Saturday as well.
There's a lot of conflicting market indicators here, and I
think it's because there's very respected money on both sides
of this game. It reminds me of the usc Utah
(06:52):
game a few weeks ago where we saw it kind
of move through three, then back to three, and it
looks like three and a half kind of the consensus here.
And I've seen it go as high as four and
a half and as low as three, and I think
that's kind of a tight range we're gonna be in,
you know, heading to the weekend here, we've already seen
obviously a big move to the under. You mentioned it
because of the weather. And let's be honest. Both offenses,
(07:15):
especially Notre Dame, very limited a hundred and twentieth and
marginal explosiveness. They do not stretch the field. They don't
have a game breaking wide receiver. They do have a
beast of a tight end who is a mismatch in
the red zone, and they run the ball efficiently. It's
not explosive, but it's four or five six yards to carry,
(07:36):
and they set Drew Pine up in third and second
and manageables and you hope he doesn't make the big
mistake that ruins the game. That's the that's the script
for Notre Dame. The script for Clemson is d J
you with a week off, where is his head? Because
you could you can make a case for both directions.
Four turnovers against Syracuse. You don't finish the game, the
(07:57):
other guy comes in and wins it, and then you
sit and do on that for two weeks. Is it
a positive reaction or does he lose his confidence so
early because he's looking over his shoulder. I could see
it going in both directions, especially on the road, bad weather,
hostile environment, Notre Dame's defense relatively underperforming. I could see
Clemson just bullying them, But I could make a taste.
(08:19):
D Ju commits an early turnover, ball slips out of
his hands on a design run, and all of a sudden,
it's a it's a downhills, you know, slippery slope from there.
So I got ahead of the market at four with
Notre Dame. If it gets back to three, I'll probably
take a nibble on Clemson and hope a low total
game lends either three or four and then I can't lose.
(08:39):
So that's my initial strategy. But early le Notre Dame.
But I'll be honest, I don't really fully trust your pine,
and I'm sure you don't either. No, I certainly don't
know how crazy is it? Just two years ago dj
U uncle uncle Lay a freshman at the time, filling
in for Trevor Lawrence who had COVID and he went
crazy against Notre aim. It was a double overtime loss
(09:01):
for Clemson, but he threw for four hundred thirty nine
yards and two touchdowns. He looked spectacular. He was a
highs bean hopeful, and then you fast forward to the
here and now last game, he's getting benched for Kaid
club Nick. So it's just it's crazy how it's worked
out for d j Ui because I thought he had
star potential written all over him, and it just it
(09:23):
hasn't worked out that way with Clemson for him. Yeah,
you know, this is a this is a Clemson team
that a lot of people are saying this week. And
I don't want to get hot taking too much, but
what what why are they so high in the rankings?
I mean, listen, this is a Clemson team that deserves
(09:43):
respect because they still have the name, and they play
in a conference that's so bad that you know they're
going to be in the conference championship every year. And
it's you know, inches here on on one side of
the ball that that's going to either separate them from
the cultur will playoff or not. And I think the committee,
you know, forward face thinking listen, Clems, it's probably gonna
win this game, and they're probably gonna win the a CEC,
So we might as well just put him in now
(10:04):
because we're gonna have to put him in at some point,
and I we don't know if that's gonna be the
case if they go lay an egg here on on
on on on Saturday. But man, DJ, you, what would
your mindset be? Bran? You know, you're you're a twenty
year old kid and you just turned it over four
times and the other kid comes in and wins the game,
and you're sitting on that for two weeks. I mean,
you would think the reaction will be positive, but I'm
(10:27):
not so sure, to be honest with you. Yeah, it's
a weird thing. I think it's two things. I think
that you're motivated heading in obviously, like seeing your job
starting to slip away a bit, you're super motivated. But
the real test is if things go wrong, if you
throw an interception, if you have a bad read, if
you miss a wide open receiver for a touchdown, then
(10:50):
how do you feel what's your mindset? Then? Do you
let it roll off? Or like you said, are you
looking over your shoulder like is club Nick warming up?
Am I getting pulled right now? Like that's not a
good spot to be an, Let's go to another game here.
It's kind of weird. Bit. I don't know if you've
ever gone to like Lollapalooza or oz Fast or any
of these concerts, My mind goes there where Alabama at
(11:12):
l s U. It seems like when the bands are
not in the right order, you know what I mean,
Like Tennessee Georgia's the headliner and it's before Alabama and
l s U in primetime where you're kind of like,
why is this band closing the whole thing? They should
be the band, like the warm up band. It's weird
that Alabama and ls YOU are in that spot, but
(11:33):
they certainly are this week the opening act. What's What's
so we're the opening act for the show that comes
after ours on Saturday, right Like we're like the where
we warm up the crowd for all that for all
the stars that come later. But listen, this this Alabama
game has got some stars too. I think Jade Daniel
is a very underrated player in this country, and I
think it's it's it's unfortunate that he plays with a
(11:57):
coach that maybe mutes his talent a little bit. It
because they, you know, they run a pro style offense,
and Brian Kelly and those pro style offenses really haven't
given Nick Saban a ton of problems over the years.
It's been the more mobile quarterbacks historically that have given
Alabama problems. But even that narrative, I think I could
poke some holes in because I saw some numbers that
(12:17):
are very positive for Alabama's defense against kJ Jefferson and
hand and Hooker this year. And I know they scored
a bunch of points Tennessee did in that game, but
they held handon Hookers running his legs in check. And
they did the same to kJ Jefferson. Now, they did
win that Arkansas game by by a pretty big margin,
so I can say Alabama's defense maybe improving a little
bit against the mobile quarterbacks. The interesting thing with Daniels
(12:40):
here l s U's off to buy and again Daniels
is starting to play well, So the confidence level is
increasing in this offense. And when he's on target, when
he's on schedule, you're seeing him one of the more efficient,
you know, throwers and runners in the country. So the
question to me is how is LS, you're gonna protect
Jane Daniels because they're off its of line hasn't played
(13:01):
well this year. And you know you got Alabama with
Will Anderson and Dallas Turner and Brasil. I mean, they've
got guys who can get after the quarterback. And the
Tiger's offensive line numbers as I say, you know, outside
the top one, and a lot of these havoc and
sack grate categories that I look at. So I'm a
little concerned with L s U protecting Jaden Daniels. But
on the other side, I can make a case that
(13:21):
L s US defense maybe as a chance to stop
the run here. If they can sell out and if
they can get Bryce Young into some longer you know,
you know, known passing situations, then they can cover up
for a secondary that's really struggled too. So it's all
about stopping the run, and it's all about trying to
figure out a way to keep Jane Daniels upright. If
ellis you can do those two thinks, death Valley at night,
(13:42):
maybe some weather in the forecast. I've seen stranger things
happen in college football, no doubt, Oh, no doubt. Yeah,
And look, man, for Obama Eli Ricks being back their
stud cornerbacks might be a first round draft pick. That's
a big, big deal. And he transferred from l s U.
So he goes up against his former team. That's a
really interesting matchup to watch against Jaden Daniels who has
(14:03):
been very good. But it's a mixed bag. It's it's weird,
like Boots he had the six catches for a buck
fifteen and then he was like invisible and Jaden Daniels
just running all over the place. So he's been Jaden
Daniels had a good season, but I want to see
him up against this Alabama secondary that's getting healthier. I
want to see what he does and uh, if he's
(14:25):
able to keep that Bama defense off balance with the
run past threat right there, We'll close it out on
this because you got your eye on Wake Forest over here.
Wake Forest against NC State. NC State is a four
point home underdog. What do you think about Wake and
the wolf Pack in this one? Yeah, So we gave
out Louisville last week against Wake and now I'm kind
(14:46):
of reversing course. And when I watched so I watched
that entire louis Allway game. The third quarter especially was
particularly entertaining for me with the Louisville ticket. If you
had a Wake ticket, you wanted to rip your hair
out because louis Wake force turned to over on like
five straight possessions. They had eight turnovers in the game.
I mean that is again, and this is a Wake
(15:07):
offense that's not very explosive with big five star athletes
all over the field. They're very efficient and they run
a very you know, tight ship and and Sam Hartman
is you know, the trigger man, and he's been that
throughout the course of his career. But this was just
one of those clunkers where everything Louisville touch turned to
gold and everything Sam Hartman touch turned turned to a
(15:28):
fumble or an interception. So I I liked to buy
low vibes though after an outlier performance like that. And
when you look at NC State very limited offensively now
post Evan Leary, they go from the running quarterback, the
you know, the the the FCS transfer Chambers who came
from Charleston Southern, who was just a disaster against Syracuse
(15:49):
and you know last week as well, and then they
they bench him against against votech and they go to M. J.
Morris and he goes goes off three touchdown drives and
and you know, big comeback win for ENCI s eight. Well,
now you're gonna have Wake Forest with some tape on
on on this kid. And also NC State, which is
known for their defense, really struggles to stop the slow mesh.
(16:11):
How about this A hundred and twenty three points in
the last three games between these two teams for Wake Force.
So NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who's been in
town for three years, has had three chances to stop
the slow mesh and he's failed all three times. So
I could see Wake even though this is a road
game and this is a big rivalry in the home field,
advantage will be prominent. I think Wakes are in a
(16:32):
good spot to bounce back here. Man, I'll tell you what.
The slow mesh a site for sore eyes, but it's
effective when run properly. But you mix the slow mesh
just how it looks with eight turnovers. Last, Oh, that
is a horror movie right there. Yeah, it was. It
(16:53):
was great for us with Louisville though it was it
was It was a comedy for me. But yes, if
you had Wake, it was a horror movie. It's a
rom com for you or I was very happy with that. Okay,
so check us out on Saturday. Right, We'll have three
hours for you leading up to kickoff, so nine am
(17:16):
to noon Eastern time. We'll get you all set for
all the action, really really healthy slate of college games.
So definitely check us out on Fox Sports Radio for that.
Earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing into bed MGM
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(17:36):
the King of sports books. All right, let's welcome in
Bill Crack and Burger. Let's talk to NFL sports handicapper
from crack wins dot com and Crack we're looking on
all these games. It's funny our podcast should be before
we start talking, because it's pretty good. You know, the
podcast for the podcast to be pretty good is today's
(17:57):
conversation was good. I'll think about how to spin on that.
We can talk about it in the future. That sounds good, man.
Let's start with the Thursday night game. We're recording this
on Thursday afternoon. Still a handful of hours to get
in on this game if you want to. You mentioned
that Circa. It's all the way up to fourteen where
Philly is favored by two touchdowns on the road against
(18:18):
the Houston Texans. You feel anything in this game tonight,
crack listen. I value with Circus on because Circus one
of the sharp sports books in town. They take the
biggest limits of anybody. And uh, you know, on the NFL,
if you're willing to put up a million bucks, you
go down there as Derek Stevens, he'll he'll take a
million dollars on the game. I was with him the
other day. I was filming a documentary for a German
(18:40):
TV station, him and I and literally he's like, I'll
take two on any game. But if you want to
come up to me and they asked me for a
certain game, I'll, you know, I'll take up to a
million bucks on a game. I mean, so I have
to go by them because they're taking the sharpest bets too,
not only the square guys that want to bet that
giant money, but the sharpest I looked to even the
world everies. Tonight, Like tonight, here we have game five,
(19:04):
uh and and Circus begging begging for Houston Astros bets.
I mean they're just begging. Yeah. So everyone after seeing
philed up you're getting no hit and threw up a
really looking a clunker. They really Um, you know, everyone said,
oh God, Houston's gonna kill him. Now it's over now, Verlander,
it's over now. Well that's never the way it works.
(19:24):
So I'm not not saying that Houston is gonna win
the World Series. But I'm just not gonna win. I'm
just saying that I go by certain sports books as indicators,
and Circus one of them. And Circu has a fourteen
on the Eagle game tonight. So uh, they're one of
the only fourteens circle and the win everyone else is
thirteen and a half. Really um for the most part,
(19:45):
So this is a game I said that. You know,
the Eagles first half has been a has been good
for me. Um. I know, I had a really big
plan a couple of weeks ago versus Arizona where they
won fourteen to ten. That one they almost lost because
Arizona was driving at the goal line. Um. But I
I don't know the record, but it might they might
have won every game. They might have covered every game.
I think that maybe they well lost one versus spread,
(20:06):
they're really good in the first half. I just can't
lay that number. I can't go over the seven and
lay eight on the road. Seven and a half on
the road. I'm not no way. I think Houston comes
out a little bit tougher anyway in this game. So
we'll see what happens. So listen, Philadelphia, everyone's saying is
the best team in football. Well, let's see what happens
down the road. It seems like Philadelphia never has closing
(20:26):
power in any sports. Something like they just don't have
the heart to be one of those teams, one of
those whether it's football, basketball, baseball. I'm rooting for him though,
I'm rooting for him to to to win the World Series.
But um, they're definitely an underdog there. So I don't know.
This game is a game that you just I know,
everyone has to have action on the Thursday in that game.
(20:46):
They have to have action on the TV game. It's
the reason why the sports books are built and the
big casinos have luxury towers because people have to have actions. So, um,
I'll just tell you I'm gonna probably stay away from
the game. If anything, I'll tell you if I had to,
if I'm forced to bet anything, I may lean to
the over a little bit. If Philadelphia can, um, if
(21:07):
if you ustill keep up maybe in the game and
make it a competitive game, that will force Philadelphia to
keep that offense going. UM. It just seems like that
that could be a way to go. Maybe even a
first half over over twenties three A lean, just a lean, nothing,
nothing crazy. I have to ask you about. We'll get
back to the pics and the games and all that.
But you're filming a dock for a German TV station.
(21:31):
Is that this German? This was a lot bigger than
I thought. So I went down to I actually got
a d M and I was asked to go down
to UM. Derek asked if you can go down there
because they need a couple of guys that make a
living in sports betting. So I went down. I didn't
expect that, and they had three camera crews. So they've
interviewed all these hockey players. I'm not sorry. I'm sorry
(21:52):
hockey also, but soccer. They're over and over over a
broad interview and like messy and talking about gambling and
like that. You know they're there there there's actually a
bigger production than what I thought. Um, like I said,
three cameras. I was pretty surprised to see that. Uh
but yeah, yeah, so we we interviewed this who knows
what to believe where it's even gonna be shown. I
(22:12):
just I was asked to do it, and I did
it as a favor, and and uh, it was in
the middle of Saturday. I just flew back, uh from
Connecticut on Saturday, I literally got an hour of power
nap and ran down there and filmed for about an hour.
And then the next day on Sunday, I was down
there with Derek. Um. He had a nice orange shoot on.
Derek is like, I don't know if you any you
(22:33):
guys know Derek Stevens Is. He's the Ace Rothstein from Casino.
He has the pinks, the blues, the light blues, the
aqua blue, the greens. He dresses so colorful, so bright,
so loud. I mean, he is just so cool man.
He just like you think about the guy owns three
casinos and he's downtown at the bar every night, hanging
out with the regular customers, taking pictures and saying, yeah,
(22:54):
come on in, guys, hey have a drink. On me.
I mean, he's the last of the Mohicans old school throwback.
So we did do this show. We'll see what happens. Nice. Okay,
So let's go to, uh, the Colts and Patriots. You're
looking at the total here, it's thirty nine and a half.
If you do a quick preview of this game, you
look at the Colts, they go to Sam Ellinger, look
(23:15):
like they had the game, an ugly low scoring game
against Washington. They allowed ten points late and they lose
the game. Frank Reich, he fired the offensive coordinator. He's
the facto offensive coordinator right now. It seems like the
Colts are started starting to circle the drain in twenty
twenty two, where Frank Reich might be out of a job.
They're cleaning house. This is a huge game for the Colts.
(23:39):
I just don't know that they're good enough against the Patriots.
But thirty nine and a half? What are you thinking
about the total in this one? Yeah? You know, thirty
nine and a half At MGM, I see that their
circus still has that I leanked to the over in
this game. Uh in New England, Indie. This this is
like you said, this is a giant game for Indie.
I mean, they seem to think still, and I guess
(23:59):
they are because the whole division is nothing special. They
seem to think they're in playoff contention. Still. It's kind
of early to say, but uh uh so, so they're
gonna they're they're gonna want to hang around with New
England here and and uh this is one of the
lowest totals. I think it is the lower Yeah, this
is the lowest total of the week. So I just
(24:19):
I leaned to the over here and I may even
release over nineteen nineteen half the nineteen and a half
first half here. I haven't yet, but that's a game
I looked towards the overlooked, look for indeed to hang
with New England a little bit and hopefully they go over. Man,
I'll tell you what real fast. Sam Ellinger broke my
heart not hitting his over rushing shop. He rushed for
(24:41):
twenty yards down the stretch of the game. Holding penalty
brought it back. He would have been easy over if
not for that. And it really wasn't a call that
sprung him. You know, sometimes you break a big run
because of the hole. It really wasn't because of that
made it even worse. I didn't see that. That makes
the stemas that makes that bet sting more. I had
(25:01):
that over pretty much for here, stinging right there. How
about this one Rams against Tampa total is forty two
and a half. Cooper Cup is expected to play. We
didn't know if that that ankle injury was gonna keep
him out, but he's expected to play. What do you
think in this one? We just saw Tampa's defense. They
(25:23):
had no answer for the Baltimore Ravens in the second half.
The Ravens just ran all over them. Their tongues were
hitting the grass. They were so worn out Tampa was
What do you think about Rams Tampa forty two and
a half as a total? Talk about a vanilla line.
Every single sports book in the world on my screen,
and I have thirty of them, has forty two and
(25:43):
a half. There's not one difference anywhere U. I leaned
to the over in this game. Also, I'm looking for
some of these games to return to the mean. Um,
you know, unders other way to go this season hitting
it over and uh, I'm expecting some of these games
to return to the mean that the bookmaker has lowered
these totals, you know, down from an opening line where
(26:06):
this type of game may that may have opened forty
three and a half, but they know under is the
way to go this year because of the the defense,
the defensive schemes, except for maybe Tampa in that game.
You're right, they've been forcing. They've been changing it up
so much this year and it brings it brings so
much parody to the league. Uh. Like I said, they've
been throwing underneath instead of throwing the long ball a lot,
(26:29):
so they're not They're not getting that many plays out
on offense as they were in previous season. This is
almost widespread, blanket statement of over the whole NFL. I mean,
we see what happened with Green Bay. Uh Rogers, the
big powerhouse quarterback. They ran the ball in the second
half and literally covered the game because they ran the ball.
I think they ran the first nine of third team
(26:50):
plays when they were down you know, double digits, which
is very unusual for any team, never mind a big
team like that. So um, I I do lean to
the to the over here trying to buck this trend
of unders, and uh listen, the rams are just wow.
I can't it's hard to even believe this is the
Super Bowl team. It really is Jesus. So you look
(27:11):
at this team, it's wow, it looks like they look
like garbage. But I'm hoping they could exploit that defense
a little bit and uh, they can make a game
out of this and and the game goes over. I
wanted to get your opinion on this one. Chargers at
the Falcons. The total is forty nine and a half,
and I like the over. I know we're just giving
out over is left and right here, but think about
(27:31):
it this way, crack Atlanta's secondary is really banged up.
Their corners are decimated. You saw Carolina throw the ball
and hit some huge plays the d J Moore play
down the stretch last week. What do you think Justin
Herbert and the Chargers are gonna do. They're gonna be
able to pass the football against Atlanta And then you
(27:51):
look at the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses.
That's all Atlanta does on offense is run the ball effectively.
So forty nine and a half are you with me?
Do you see this going over and getting to at
least fifty You know it's it's one of the it's
the highest line game for the week. But if it's
only the highest line game because they've seen seventy one
points last week. But then again, if you look at it,
(28:14):
they allowed thirty four verse the Panthers, they allowed thirty five.
I believe it was against Let me to see that.
I think thirty five against the Bengals. Yeah, thirty five
against the Bengals week before that before. I mean, they're
they're allowing some points. Um this year. You know, you
go back to earlier in the season, h Rams Falcons
(28:36):
thirty one. The next week, they put up a fifty
the week they put up fifty three in the first week.
This has been an over team no matter who they play.
It looks like, um, so this this I guess the
bookmakers have lined the game like this is going to
go over, So I will. I'll be rooting with you.
I'm not betting it actually per se, not yet anyway,
(28:57):
things changed, situations changed, and things warrant that's uh, closer
to game time, it's rare. But I liked about earlier
in the week. But yeah, I can see this game
going over. What you sure there's one that you like
as far as an under the same total forty nine
and a half. It's the Seahawks Arizona Cardinals game. Why
do you like the under in that one? Crape? The
Cardinals Seahawks game opened up. It's it's amazing that late
(29:21):
in the season, here we are in week nine. It's
hard to believe. Wow saying week nine has been eight
weeks in the NFL. Wow week nine, though, The respect
that the bookmaker gives the sharp betters even goes down
because these lines are so good, they're so tight. This
particular line opened up forty nine and a half and
(29:41):
it's still forty nine and a half. A matter of fact,
I'm looking there's actually two sizars in South Point as fifty,
so they're they're good numbers to play the under. If
you guys liked uh, we would agree with me here
on the under. Here. I just think we're gonna see uh.
These teams also return into them. Me. Listen, everyone loves
the like. One of the biggest talks right now still
(30:03):
is the Seattle Seahawks. So I I understand it, just
don't they They just don't look like they're going to
be to me, I don't know that they are. Are
they that playoff team that people are talking about now?
I mean people are literally saying that you know that
that this this team could be in the playoffs. Well,
they beat the Giants last week. We know that the
Giants was due for a losing game, but I mean
(30:27):
they're on a little bit of a role. They beat
the Chargers. Uh, they beat the Cardinals a few weeks earlier,
nineteen to nine, and I'm hoping that's the same type
of a game, uh, nineteen and nine type of game.
I don't know if it's gonna be that low, but um,
I'm just not so big on the Seahawks like everyone
else is. I guess. Listen, they beat the Lions in
(30:47):
that one, gave me scored forty eight points. It was
just there's so many indicators in the market here, back
and forth. The reason why this line is this high.
I just feel that it shouldn't be this this high.
We we we have some uh some stats behind that,
and I think it's gonna be a lower scoring game,
and I think it's going to be the same type
of game, hopefully that they had a few weeks back.
(31:09):
I have to get your opinion on a couple of
games with huge point spreads. On Sunday, it's uh, the
Bills at the Jets. So the Jets are twelve and
a half point home underdogs. Clear lack of faith in
Zach Wilson. Zack through three interceptions last week against the Patriots.
Two of them were terrible. You're just trying to throw
the ball away. They turned out to be interceptions. But
(31:31):
we know how talented Buffalo is. Crack but we've seen
this routinely. This could be a sleepy spot for them,
just off of a a primetime game. You're playing the Jets. Yeah,
it's a divisional rival, but every now and then they
have that sleep walking performance. Would you be tempted to
play the Jets plus twelve and a half? Well, I'll
tell you it. Open up thirteen and it looks like
(31:54):
to me that there's twelves now out there. So it
may not go back to third team, but yet on
Sunday you may get one rogue sports book to put
up the thirteen. Again, I didn't bet it, but I wouldn't.
You know. You guys know me. I'm a routine I
never ever ever will lay double digit anyway in the NFL.
I'll be looking to take the dog. If anything, old
(32:14):
division rival here, Buffalo could be overlooking them. Even you
don't know, because the situations do warrant that sometimes they
just came like you said, they just came off off
a game where they primetime game. Um, you know it.
It's it's not beyond me though to think that that, uh,
that this team can actually lose the game. Who knows.
(32:36):
I mean, listen, we all we I mean we've been
saying it every week. Buffalo lost last year to Jacksonville.
They were seventeen point favorites. It's primarily the same exact squad. So, um,
you know, it's not beyond reach here that that Buffalo
can can blow this game. So we'll see what happens.
And uh, like I said, I'm not betting the Jets game.
(33:00):
U um, you know any anything. I'm not batting the
Jets I mean, but if it goes to thirteen and
may be tempted, who knows, sometimes they get tempted with
those half of points. How about this one too, the
Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is getting no respect at all, I
mean the road talk about respect. I mean, it's hard
(33:21):
to believe that Tennessee is not. Boy, this is another
one of those games. Man, they just you shake your
head and you wouldn't be surprised with Kansas City having
to buy you know, Kansas City, maybe you know, blowing
them out to who I mean at home. It could happen.
That's what's crazy, though, is the Titans the quietest five
(33:41):
and two team in football easily. They have the same
record as the Chiefs. And we just saw Derrick Henry
go ballistic last week against the Houston Texans. Yeah, they
just haven't beat anybody. They really haven't beat anybody. I
mean that the Giants beat them. The Bills destroyed them
by thirty four, so you might have the same type
of game here. They just haven't I mean, they beat
(34:03):
the Raiders, they beat the Commanders, the Cults twice, UM Tech,
the Texans. I mean, they really haven't been anyone. So uh,
they haven't played any one of dominant force. But however,
they are a better team than they were in the
beginning of the season two, UM, a little bit healthier
of a team. So this should the game opened up
(34:24):
eleven up the twelve and a half already, don't be
I won't be surprised to see this one go to
go to thirteen. Also, but again this they're they're do
Last week we had two double digit favorites win. Uh,
Like they said there, they're probably due for a couple
more of these big favorites winning. There was a time
in history that betting the money line for years and years,
(34:47):
betting money line in the NFL on double digit favorites
would return you money year after year betting all the
ten and a half or ten point favorites are higher.
I would never do it. It's it's very rare. I'll
do it only if I know the money line is
is not in line with the actual spread, then I'll
then I'll do that. But um again, this this is
(35:08):
uh primetime game. Was we'll see. I think Tennessee. You know,
Tennessee has learned from earlier in the season they got
blown out from Buffalo. I don't think they're gonna get
blown out like that this week. So let's see what
happens before we close here. Crack, I just have this
feeling that you suffered some monstrous loss at some point.
Do I have that wrong where you just said, oh
(35:29):
my gosh, I'm gonna lay the twelve points on this
favorite and it blew up in your face. Was there
any horror story that led to you being just dead
set against taking a favorite and laying that type of
a point spread. So you're saying, in my history, if
I ever laid double digits on on on something or
or whatever, you're saying, yeah, it's just because you're so
dead set against it. I wondered if there was a
(35:49):
big loss at some point during your betting career, you know,
maybe when I was a teenager. I mean, I I
haven't done that in years. I haven't done I haven't
laid double digits in years, and and I just know
that underdogs historically is the way to go in almost
any event. Now, that's not to say that I haven't
evolved and realized that that has changed over the years.
(36:12):
There was a time where you could just bet any
prime time home underdog with the points for years tracking
you were a winner just doing that blindly. That is
not the case anymore. The bookmaker has caught up with that.
The lines are tougher than ever, harder than ever. Um.
But however, uh no, not that I can. When I
(36:33):
was a kid. Maybe when I was a kid, I
would be Now I'm not gonna say sucker, it's too
strong of a word, but I was a kid, I
would bet double there's no I know what happens. I
know what happens here after year. You know, two years ago,
I was on a major station, major network, and on
a Sunday, and I was doing a show on a
Sunday with the guys, and both seventeen point favorites lost
(36:55):
that day outright, like that can't happen and fell ironed outline.
Both favorites lost. It was like the fifth week of
the season. It just teaches you that any given Sunday,
anything cannon will happen. I know, it's like beating a
horse saying that I'm sorry, guys. No, no, You're totally fine. Hey.
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(37:39):
crack wins dot Com. Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran,
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