November 17, 2022 • 32 mins
Brian Noe previews the weekend in football with the sharpest minds in betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to preview the 3 biggest games in college football, including huge Pac-12 matchups with playoff implications. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to dive into the biggest games in the NFL!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you ready to college fans? Welcome to the biggest
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(00:21):
your team win. Let's go. We're here to break it
all down. Let's go, Let's go. This is Fox Sports
Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet mg A. We're
live from your tail game. Here's Brian No. Welcome in, everybody.
(00:42):
It's the Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast.
We'll have Shared Smith talking some college football, the lead
petting analysts from picks wise dot com. Also Bill Krackenburger
in a bit to talk NFL sports handicapper from crack
Waynes dot com. Very sharp, very sharp. Hey, new users,
download the bet MGM app today and use code countdown
(01:03):
for a special offer. That's code countdown in the bet
MGM app. I guess I should say myself, I'm Brian No.
I don't know that this is the first week I've
said that. I'm not sure, but who cares. Jared Smith
is with us to talk some college ball. Jared, we
dive right in man tasty matchup number seven USC against
number sixteen u c l A. U c l A
(01:25):
laden egg against Arizona last week. Maybe a look ahead spot,
but they are getting two and a half. The Bruins are.
They are a home dog against the Trojans. I don't
know how many people are gonna be in attendance here,
but it's gonna be healthier than what we've seen for
previous Bruins home games in this one. Yeah, you just
had your Ron Burgundy moment. I'm Brian, no question question
(01:49):
mark there Um, there's some question marks about this u
c l A team after the I don't want to
say the effort. I think the effort was there. I
just think the execution wasn't, especially on the defensive end.
They let Arizona just run all over them. And this
is a u c l A defense that has struggled
at times, especially in a bend. But don't break fashion
(02:11):
and we use that cliche all the time, but there's
data to back that up. U c l A against
the past outside the top ninety and success right defensively,
but a top fifteen team in explosive past defense, what
does that mean? They're giving up a lot of successful
plays through the air, but they're not the big dashers,
the forty fifties, sixties, seventy yard bombs down the field,
(02:32):
and that's kind of what USC specializes in. So the
question I have in this game, no Travis Die and
that is absolutely huge because his usage rate, besides Caleb Williams,
is the highest on the team, and he has that
intangible leadership. Say what you want about Caleb Williams, Heisman candidate,
blah blah blah, he's still basically a sophomore and he's
only started I think twenty or twenty five career games.
(02:53):
Travis Die is that experienced senior bringing that veteran leadership.
And you saw what the USC team kind of rallying
around him when he was carted off the field. Very
unfortunate injury for him against Colorado. But again, what does
that mean for this USC stable of running backs. Well,
they're very talented, Austin Jones, Barlow Brown. I mean, you know,
these are all four or five star kids. But we'll
(03:16):
see if they're able to replicate that, you know, production
and that intangible leadership that Travis Dy brings to the
table on the other side of the ball. I think
this is the largest mismatch of this game. U c
l A's running offense against USC's defensive line. U c
l A is a very physical football team top five
(03:37):
and almost every adjusted line yards opportunity rate, top ten,
stuff rate and sacker. I mean, they are very good
up front and they're gonna make life very difficult for
a USC defense that has some pieces there. But they
always play as one and I think that's the advantage
for U c l A in this game. I think
they're more physical and I think eventually that will win
(04:00):
it out. Now Corid Caleb Williams play out of his
mind and steal this game. Of course, that's how talented
he is. But at the core matchup here, I think
U c l A has an edge in the trenches,
especially their offense against the Trojans defense. Yeah, and the
last three meetings between these teams have been score fests.
It's neither can stop either. Last three games eighty seven
(04:22):
combined points, eighty one and then ninety five combined points.
The total right now as we speak has said at
seventy five and a half at bet MGM. I don't
know if you have that stat off the top of
your head, Jared, it's somewhere in the seventy range, like
what the trend is as of late. With games getting
(04:44):
up to that high of a total, the under is
hit at a staggering rate. It's gonna be challenged in
this game because it should be a score fest. Yeah,
I've got When the total is closes at seventy five
or higher, the under actually is about a fifty three
fifty percent trend. And this goes back to pretty far
(05:05):
back two thousand and five, so you know, and that's
a pretty big sample size with a total of seventy
five or higher. But that being said, we saw the
pack twelve Washington and Oregon play a game like this
last week that stayed under. So um, I'm not immediately
running to the window to bet the over just because
the total is very high. Usually the saying if it's high,
(05:26):
it's high for a reason, low low for a reason. Right,
You're always supposed to bet under on the lowest total
on the board and over on the highest total on
the board. But I don't really subscribe to that line
of thinking because I like to look at each game individually,
and I'll be honest. The one nugget here and I
credit um um Brad Power is a fantastic professional college
football better that that that does a lot of media
and he came out with this. And I didn't notice
(05:48):
this because I didn't watch the u c l A
Arizona game. But the turf at the Rose Bowl is
in bad shape right now. They were slip sliding everywhere.
So I don't know what the grounds crew is doing
this week down there in Pasadena, but that is something
to keep an eye on in this game. If the
turf is a little slippy, I don't want to be
(06:09):
holding an over ticket, that's for sure. Yeah. Wow, I
thought the trend was a little bit better to the under.
It's just a little bit over on the under one
at seventy five. Yeah, I just think this. I don't
know if you feel the same way. It just feels
like a pack twelve thing. It's not if things will
fall apart for USC it's just when when It could
(06:30):
be this Saturday against u c l A, or next
week against Notre Dame, or if they're able to win
out and get to the Pack twelve championship game. It
just feels like something is going to go hey wire
for the best chance to Pack twelve has to get
to a college football playoff Berth. Yeah, I mean to me,
it's Utah and we'll get to them in a minute.
But I have been and Utah, let's be honest, they've
(06:51):
under achieved our expectations this year, despite the fact that
unless they lose the Colorado next week, which is not
gonna happen, they will go over there. There there pretty
a win total of eight and a half. I think
it closed nine, so some people might push and if
they win this week then then then they'll definitely go
over um I Utah is the spoiler here because they've
got two losses and one of them was bad early
(07:11):
in the year to Florida, and I could absolutely see
them spoiling the party winning the Pack twelfth championship. And
you know you're not gonna send a two lost Pack
twelve champion to the to the College wall playoff unfortunately. Yeah,
let's get to that game. So we've got number ten
Utah against number twelve or again, both are eight and two.
You've got the Ducks small favorites at home, favorite by
(07:32):
two and a half at bet MGM. The question is
bo Nicks. Bo Nicks got banged up at the end
of the loss against Washington last week. He's got an
ankle injury. There is some speculation that he's gonna give
it a go, but he's probably not gonna be his
true home bow nick self in this game. And if
that's the case, Man in Oregon plus two and a
(07:55):
half could be looking pretty at the end of this one.
They've been great on the road there five to know
against the spread since the start of the seventeen season.
I know that's a dated trend, but they are three
and o against the spread as an underdog. That's a
more recent trend, and they played well the last couple
of weeks. We're seeing them play their best football of
the season. As is typical of a Kyle Whittingham team,
(08:17):
they seem to close strong. Yeah, and I love Kyle
Whittingham as a head coach and I like Dan Landing
a lot too. But let's be honest, the experience on
the sidelines absolutely goes to winning him in this spot.
And this has been a matchup historically, maybe not historically,
but last year that was absolutely dominated by the Utes
and it was the physicality that Utah brought to the
(08:39):
table that really frustrated Oregon a little more flash flash
in the pan kind of offense last year, and it
was thirty eight thirty eight seven in the PAC twelfth.
I mean it was domination from the Oregon Duck side
of the field. When it comes to trying to move
the football against Utass defense, well, Utass defense isn't quite
the same defense as last year. And the thing that
(09:01):
is intriguing we mentioned this a few weeks ago when
you talk kinda was suf some pretty soft, you know,
pretty decent talent on the defensive side of the ball.
They lost a couple of pieces, but they still, you know,
pretty good players up there. We're really struggling against the run.
And what that did is that opened up the pass
and now Utah is outside the top one hundred in
passing efficiency on the defensive side, despite having Clark Phillips,
(09:22):
who's arguably the best corner in the country. So it's
kind of this cat and mouse game with Morgan Scali.
You'll load up the box to stop the run. Well,
now you're susceptible in the secondary. We'll see schematically how
Utah approaches this game. But you're right, bo Nix is
the key here. This line flipped we're recording this on
a Thursday. On Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, we started
to see Steam into the market one and a half,
(09:43):
Oregon flip to now pick them, and now Utah is
the favorite and Utah is actually, I don't want to
say sizeable favorite, but when you go from Oregon minus
three on Monday to now Utah minus two on Thursday,
that's a pretty significant move. And my guess is, if
bone Nicks does get announced out, this will get through
that key number of three. But I would be very
(10:04):
careful making a bet based off of speculation. In fact,
we just saw the situation play out a few weeks
ago with Utah. Nobody knew Cameron Rising was hurt all
of a sudden, he doesn't play in the game against
Washington State. Line goes Haywire about thirty minutes before, and
it's just really tough to get any information that's solid
about these injuries at the college level. So I think
(10:25):
this game to me is a stay away until we
get some definitive news on bone Eggs. If it does
get to Oregon plus three, maybe through that key number
of three, I'm sure there will be some appetite to
bet the number, not based off context, but just based
off of number as a home dog. But I'll be honest,
I think this is a Utah spot even if bon
Nix plays. I really like the physicality Utah brings to
(10:48):
the table. A little concerned about the schematics, as I
mentioned with the defensive coordinator Morgan Scali, but I do
think in my eyes, Utah is poised to pull this
upset off. It's not an upset anymore. But if it
was Bonick, I still think, especially if I was getting three,
I would consider the youth. Yeah, it's uh. I think
about the line movement in this one. We always talk
(11:08):
about closing line value. And what's interesting about this is
that you taught, like you said, is now the favorite.
They're favored by two on the road, and you could think,
a man, I should have got Utah plus three or
Utah plus two or whatever, and now they're minus two.
But you know, as you just said, it could still
(11:28):
be going in their direction where they're favored by three.
So if you hopped, if you wanted to, if you
take your advice and you like the Utes in this game,
regardless of bo Nick's status, if you get them at
minus two, it's still might might be some closing line
value if it ticks up to three. So the point is,
I would compare it to like taking a road trip.
(11:49):
If you're driving and you're looking at gas prices, and
let's say it's at three dollars, and then you're driving
north and it gets up to three ten, you could think, man,
I should have got it at three dollars, But guess
what you drive fifty more miles, it's gonna be you
know what I mean? So getting three ten is better.
(12:10):
So I think that about Utah right now at minus two.
I don't expect that to change. I don't think that
bow Knicks is all of a sudden there's gonna be
news that he's gonna be like his home bow Nick self.
So I think there's gonna be more money on Utah
of anybody in this spot. You know, we should coin
homebow Knicks trade market. Um. Another element to this game
(12:31):
that I think is fascinating. Utah's offense has been really
good this year. They've scored a bunch of points in
a bunch of different games, but it's really been Cameron Rising.
The one thing we saw last week against Stanford. I
know it's one game, and I know it's Stanford, Kathy,
and Thomas has re emerged and he's had a very
interesting career, very up and down throughout the course of
his tenure in Salt Lake, but career high hundred and
(12:51):
eighty yards on the ground against Stanford, and I'm not
gonna say he's gonna repeat that against Oregan's defensive line,
which is pretty stout, certainly much stouter than Stanford's. But
to me, if you have a ground game that can
at least take some of the pressure off Cameron Rising,
get him in more play action boots and waggles on
the edge where he can be a little more effective
with the defense kind of honing in on the run.
(13:14):
I do think that's going to create some problems for
Oregon secondary because what do we see last week with Washington,
Oregon can be had up top. Now, I don't think
Utah has the quote unquote dudes to do what Washington did.
Washington's got some serious talent at wide receiver, and I
think Michael Pennocks at his core a better pure passer
than Cameron Rising. But I love the tight end matchup
(13:37):
with Dalton Kinkaid. He's actually the leading receiver on this
Utes team with fifty catches this year, and keep an
eye on Davon v lay Blay. I apologize by mispronounced
his name. He's been trending up of late. He's the
one guy on the outside, six ft five receiver, twenty
four years old, sophomore. He served an LDS mission in Samoa,
so he has a lot of life experience and he's
starting to play a little bit better. And that's the
(13:58):
one thing Utah has been lacking this year is that
playmaker at wide receiver. Of course, Kincaid's a stud at
tight end, and they lost Dalton Keithy, their other start
tight end um you know, early in the year with
an injury. But if they do get v l A
and maybe another guy on the outside, that can create
some problems for this Oregan secondary, which again has been
susceptible at times this year. I think it makes this
(14:19):
game a lot easier for Cameron Rising, who's obviously going
to have a lot of responsibility on his shoulders, and
Austen on Saturday Night. Yeah, it's an interesting one because
I always think about the potential ripple effect in any game,
and if Homebow knicks Tashtag it. If he's not feeling
like his homebow knicks self, then you might see a
(14:40):
couple of three and out. It's this is an Oregon
defense that has been very leaky, and you saw it
last week. This is a very physical U taught team.
You talked about U c l A being physical, and
they are, so is Utah. So just think about Oregon's
leaky defense. They're giving up an average of thirty four
points this season two ranked opponents thirty are points. So
(15:01):
imagine if there are a couple of three and outs.
Oregon's offense isn't as prolific as it typically has been,
and that Ducks defense is tired out even more against
a very physical Utah team. That is not a good
recipe for the Ducks plus two or outright or anything.
I think in this one, let's shift over to one
more here. Got something on that week one, and you
(15:22):
know we were on Utah that week. This Utah team
is like one fumble in the red zone away against
Florida from really being in the playoff conversation. And it's unfortunate.
And that's why i'd like to I mean, we talked
about this, well, I'm sure we'll talk about it again
on Saturday. The twelve team format gives a chance for
a team like Utah that in my eyes is deserving of,
(15:46):
you know, consideration for the playoff, but because of the
four team format, two losses just isn't gonna make it happen.
In the new format, Utah wins out there in the playoff,
and I think they're a well coached team with an
app salute star at quarter. I mean, Cameron Rising is
a star, and I not a lot of people know
it because they play in a conference that doesn't get
a lot of pub and of course, you know he's
(16:07):
he's just not a you know, a flashy quarterback, and
he's not gonna be on the Heisman podium. But Cameron
Rising deserves a lot of national attention, and maybe he'll
get some this week and of course in the PAC
twelfth Championship game going forward. If you talk n went out, well,
let's move to a team getting a lot of national
attention after last week. That would be TCU. Horned Frogs
are number four in the country. They take on Baylor.
(16:28):
Baylor is a home underdog plus two and a half.
But TCU, when a lot of people were taking Texas
last week, and I get it. The metrics, the analytics,
all that information was favoring Texas, and TCU said, take
your metrics and shove them because they absolutely shut down
in Texas the entire game. Texas didn't score an offensive touchdown.
(16:51):
But now you go on the road, you take on Baylor.
Baylor at six and four is a tough matchup for TCU.
Or it's the tight sphincter theory that I have here, Jared.
When you get closer and closer and closer to the
finish line, meaning a college football playoff birth, maybe you
start to grip a little bit if it's a fourth
(17:12):
quarter game, if it's a one possession game late. But
if TCUs defense plays like they did last week going forward,
they're gonna be in the playoff. The question is can
they do that? That was a master class performance by
TCUs defense last week. And we talked about this before
we hopped on. If you would have said, okay, Jared,
(17:33):
we're betting on Texas this week, and I can give
you a glimpse into my crystal ball into the future.
With twenty minutes remaining in the game, basically late third quarter,
TCUs offense will only have three points. How do you
feel about your Texas bet? I'd be running in the
window to try to bet more on it, and it
(17:55):
could not have been further from the truth. With twenty
minutes left in that game, I felt I wanted to
rip up that ticket and use it as toilet paper
because Texas was so bad offensively. Sark just got his
He just got his brain kicked in by TCUs defense. Now,
I don't know if it was scheme, if it was effort,
if it was talent. I I can't explain TCUs defense,
(18:20):
which is outside of the top eighty and so many
categories and by so many metrics. They are just not
a good defense. Yet they held this Texas team basically
in check. Now this matchup, I hope will go a
little differently. And it is kind of ironic that despite
that game last week, the market is still disrespecting TCU.
(18:42):
I mean, they are less than a fuel goal favorite
on the road dranted against an unranked opponent. They are
a top five team. I mean it. I don't recall
a time in the market that has been this and
I don't remember the exact number, but last week, the
length of or the you know, the size of the
favorite being against the top five team against it, you know,
(19:04):
against a team that was outside of the top ten.
It was like the biggest favorite ever in that spot.
You know, I don't remember, I don't recall what the
exact metrics of it were, but it's like a historic
fade for TCU in the market. So you have to
ask yourself, is this the week that TCU is gonna
slip up? Well, David rand is a pretty good coach,
and despite that very uncharacteristic loss last week to Kansas State,
(19:27):
which they just got their doors blasted off too, I
do believe in this Bailer front, especially the offensive line,
which has gotten really good pushed this year and has
faced a pretty difficult schedule, and I I feel like
Baylor is a live dog in this spot. And I
know two and a half isn't exactly a massive underdog pig,
but it's just it to me, I I don't believe
(19:49):
in TCU and that the handicap is the same as
it was last week. Nothing about last week's game changes
my feelings here because I just don't think that TCU
defensive performance is reputable and I think to me, Baylor
offense cannot play any worse than Texas offense did last week.
Blake Shapon needs to play well, and he's been a
struggle this year. Eight picks, you know, through an opening
(20:11):
drive pick against Kansas State and then it just kind
of unraveled from there. We'll see if he polishes things
up this week. But David Randa, I could see his
defense shutting down this area of TCU, and that's to me,
the defensive you know, mindset for this Bailor team. I think,
you know, plays into what this game will be. And
it's an it's an afternoon game. It's actually an eleven
(20:31):
o'clock kickoff locally in Waco, and TCU struggle a little
bit defensively early kickoffs. Thirty one points at West Virginia,
gave up thirty one points at Kansas, gave up thirty
four at s m U, all on the road, all
in that early windows. So I I know it sounds
crazy after what we saw last week, but I think
Baylor to me is very very live in this spot.
(20:54):
They are live, and think about it, Baylor being six
and four, this can make their entire season absolutely one game,
one win against a top five team. So it's always
a dangerous spot when a team has had a disappointing
year but could make up for it with one great
performance or just good enough to get a win. So
we'll see how that shakes out. Very much looking forward
(21:15):
to that. That's on Big Fox, by the way, Fox
Sports Radio. Check us out Saturday Countdown to Kickoff presented
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get you all set for all the games. Tasty week.
What is this twelve? Already? Doesn't crazy Week twelve slate
(21:39):
of games. It'll be myself, Brian Though, Jared Smith from
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(21:59):
the King of Sports Books. We like to welcome in
now Bill kracken Burger Sports Andy Kapper from crack wayns
dot com joining us here on the podcast. Let's get
right to week eleven. Here crack Carolina at the Ravens.
The Ravens are minus thirteen. They are thirteen point favorites
(22:19):
in this one. No P J. Walker has a high
ankle spraying, which is like, did he finish the game
last week against it let whatever? He's out Baker Mayfield
in Are you taking the thirteen points and running running
with Baker and the Panthers in this spot? Crack? Well,
I'm not laying it. I can't believe Baltimore is just high. Actually,
(22:40):
this game opened up, by the way, this team opened
up on a on a look aheadline at about nine
eight and a half, nine nine and a half up
to thirteen. Now, maybe because of the situation you mentioned there, Carolina. Listen,
they beat Tampa, right, I mean, this is uh, this
is a game that you were when I actually on
the opposite sides here and not on it. I didn't
bet the game. I just Carolina getting double digits. I
(23:03):
know they are they're they're just a wounded team. But
there's still situations like that happened, like like like that
Tampa Bay game. Thirteen sounds like too many points, but
you know, maybe Baltimore will you know, they're they're due
for a big game. So this might be it, This
might be this, This might show that where they belong.
They may be that wild card type of odd but
(23:25):
my odds wise. Now, like I said, Buffalo and Kansas
City you gets throw out, there's gotta be other teams
you throw in then maybe a Baltimore, maybe a Minnesota.
You can still get double digits on these guys to
being a super Bowl, to win a super Bowl. So
we're gonna see what's gonna happen here this weekend with them. Yeah,
I wonder if that's I don't know, baked into that line.
Do you ever see this crack? We're going back two
(23:47):
weeks ago the last time Carolina was on the road,
they got crushed by Cincinnati, and that was without Jamaar Chase.
Remember it was like thirty five nothing. Do you think
that's baked into this current line? Carolina at ball probably
even two weeks ago, probably yeah, probably looking at that
game and they weren't going against it, like you said, uh,
(24:09):
since then, I didn't even have their star wide receiver
that game. So they automatically say, wow, if that happened,
then what what what's Baltimore gonna do to them? You know,
what's what's going to do to him? So, uh, you're right,
it probably is. I'm not on this game. I'm not
betting the game, but I'll tell you what. Tell me
how many times during the season you're gonna find a
double digit dog, especially I'm not that it's a key number.
(24:32):
We know three, seven, six, ten, I'll even throw thirteen
in areas, maybe the eighth choice or something. As these
key numbers, you don't ever find a key a thirteen
point spread, but only a forty one point total. Oh
my god, you never see it. You never see it.
You know this may be one of those. And I
haven't even looked at this yet. I'm just this is
gonna be live here on the show. You might have
(24:55):
to give me Baltimore and over correlated first half bar
light minus to seven over one. If a sports book
is gonna take that from me, I may bet that.
I may bet the minus seven over one. And you
see the correlation there, because you know, even though you're
only getting thirteen to five on a parlay, you're actually
if you're going to cover the seven, chances are the
(25:18):
games going to go over the one points first half.
So there's something I'll be deeply looking at coming into
and going at the Sunday nice. How about this one
Philly at Indianapolis. And the way I think about this
crack is it's a good spot if you want to
bet the opposite of last week's results, where if you
(25:39):
think about the Colts first game with Jeff Saturday as
the head coach, they beat the Raiders. They were a
laughing stock of total joke going into the game. Then
they won the game, and so maybe there's over reaction
to that. And then you think about the Monday night
game Philadelphia with four turnovers, they lose outright to Washington
is a double digit favorite, and so you look at
(26:02):
this current matchup Eagles at the Colts. Eagles are favored
by six and a half. So if you want to
bet against last week's results, you're betting against the Colts
who won. You're betting on the Eagles who lost their
first game of the year. What do you think about that?
But you had a three and five Indianapolis Colts team
(26:23):
that literally I thought, if they lose that game, they're
just playing for like you know, draft picks next year,
next year, go on the road. I think the game
was in um In. I think I'm almost positive it
was it was in Vegas, and just it was it
wasn't in Vegas. Yeah it was. Yeah, Vegas is just
that that just shows how terrible Vegas is. Two and
(26:44):
seven Las Vegas Raiders Jesus. Um, you know I'm rooting
against them the whole season though, But as far as
the Colts go, this game maybe turned around their hopes
for the season. Listen, the ANFC souths nothing great. I mean, um,
Tennessee is supposed to lose tonight and supposedly right ver
saw Green Bay. There's six and three. They could be
(27:06):
six and four here. You can have Indianapolis five and
five if they win this game. Uh, they're they're they're
playing for something now. Um, you know, maybe maybe under
this new guy, Jeff Saturday. Uh, they they got a
little bit of a renowned hope and and and hopefully
they can do something in Situationally, I'm not looking to
lay the Eagles on the road debts for sure, I'm
(27:27):
definitely not. But um, you know, the Eagles may be
upset about last weekend two. This was a that was
a big game for them. They were they were double
digit favorites losing to Washington and not supposed to lose
that game, like you said, four turnovers and uh, this, this,
this situation really warrants a probably a better game than
we think. It is probably gonna be a better game
(27:48):
than we think, a good game to maybe even watch.
We'll see what happens. I wanted to get your opinion
on this crack. Where as we speak right now, there
are six games where the point spread is exactly three,
and that just stands out to me as I look
at all these games, and so what's your takeaway when
it comes to that, Like, obviously it's a parody driven league,
(28:10):
we get all of that. But from a betting perspective,
are you more likely to hone in on some of
those games if you like value, like either laying the
three or taking the three, I'm sure you'll bet it.
But do you start to go away from that and
say that it could be a push land right on
the number. Let me look at a different game. How
do you approach that? It's the reason why I like
(28:31):
to buy Honor Office three. If I'm betting a favorite,
like the bet the two and a half, I'm betting
a dog. I like to take three and a half,
especially on the lower totals. So if you're talking a
game like like the Jets New England eight, oh my god,
I am definitely. I'm looking on the on my screen
in front of me that I see three cents three
and a half. So I do my line shopping if
(28:53):
I want New England. I'm looking at the lay that three.
Um you know, so I'm looking actually even buy the
two and a half. Now the minus three is minus
fifteen already. I'm not real too keen on going with
to minus two and a half minus thirty five, boy,
I'd rather just look in that case, i just look
at the money line and lay like the one sixty
five on the money line that happened to buy it
(29:14):
down to minus one thirty five on the other side
of the ball there plus three and a half that
maybe four or five shops already, Um, I would look
to take the free and a half. The same thing
with um these totals, um, these other games that have
a low total, So I'm looking to to go uh
also the same thing. Especially the lower to total, the
(29:35):
more valuable those points are. So I'm looking at the
either a money line or I'm looking to be to
minus two and a half or plus three and a half.
By the way, I love this line. I just have
to mention it. Dallas at Minnesota. Minnesota has lost one game.
They had a miraculous win last week. Their home underdogs.
(29:55):
They are home underdogs against the cow Boys. What do
you think about that? What's your reaction to that line? Uh? Wow,
I'll tell you this, this this is the game of
the week. I'm it's prime time. I don't know, it's
not prime time, it's private. It's the later games, one
of the three lader games. It's the later game to watch. Obviously,
have Denver, Las Vegas garbage, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, keep that Minnesota
(30:20):
Dallas game of the day, probably even looking at the
whole schedule, probably the game of the day, not not
in the game of not even the game of the
late games. This is the game of the day to watch.
Line opened up two down the one and a half. Listen,
I shouldn't say down to one and half. It opened
up to It's like two one and a half one.
It's the same. The total opened up forty seven and
(30:41):
a half. It's still forty seven and a half. This
is the game of the week. I'll be rooting for Minnesota.
Because I have Dallas shootures which on a dog right now,
when I have under on Dallas season wins, this is
this is gonna be the Teeter Totter week that I
need to I need Minnesota to beat them. So, um,
it should should be uh should be good. It should
(31:05):
be a great game. Would you say, would you say
Minnesota is the team that Vegas is most skeptical love again,
they're one lost team and they're a they're a home underdog,
and this one Vegas is a huge on the Giants.
There are a few other teams, but do you think
Minnesota is on the top of the list. Well, I'll
tell you they're like the fifth choice. I mean, let's
(31:26):
look at their record. They just but now, they just
had a legit game. So they had some easier games,
you know, Lions, Sants, Bears, they even I guess Arizona, Washington.
This Buffalo game was a very big game for them.
So now that people are looking more serious at them,
if they beat Dallas, they were a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Yeah.
(31:48):
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(00:21):
your team win. Let's go. We're here to break it
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Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet mg A. We're
live from your tail game. Here's Brian No. Welcome in, everybody.
(00:42):
It's the Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast.
We'll have Shared Smith talking some college football, the lead
petting analysts from picks wise dot com. Also Bill Krackenburger
in a bit to talk NFL sports handicapper from crack
Waynes dot com. Very sharp, very sharp. Hey, new users,
download the bet MGM app today and use code countdown
(01:03):
for a special offer. That's code countdown in the bet
MGM app. I guess I should say myself, I'm Brian No.
I don't know that this is the first week I've
said that. I'm not sure, but who cares. Jared Smith
is with us to talk some college ball. Jared, we
dive right in man tasty matchup number seven USC against
number sixteen u c l A. U c l A
(01:25):
laden egg against Arizona last week. Maybe a look ahead spot,
but they are getting two and a half. The Bruins are.
They are a home dog against the Trojans. I don't
know how many people are gonna be in attendance here,
but it's gonna be healthier than what we've seen for
previous Bruins home games in this one. Yeah, you just
had your Ron Burgundy moment. I'm Brian, no question question
(01:49):
mark there Um, there's some question marks about this u
c l A team after the I don't want to
say the effort. I think the effort was there. I
just think the execution wasn't, especially on the defensive end.
They let Arizona just run all over them. And this
is a u c l A defense that has struggled
at times, especially in a bend. But don't break fashion
(02:11):
and we use that cliche all the time, but there's
data to back that up. U c l A against
the past outside the top ninety and success right defensively,
but a top fifteen team in explosive past defense, what
does that mean? They're giving up a lot of successful
plays through the air, but they're not the big dashers,
the forty fifties, sixties, seventy yard bombs down the field,
(02:32):
and that's kind of what USC specializes in. So the
question I have in this game, no Travis Die and
that is absolutely huge because his usage rate, besides Caleb Williams,
is the highest on the team, and he has that
intangible leadership. Say what you want about Caleb Williams, Heisman candidate,
blah blah blah, he's still basically a sophomore and he's
only started I think twenty or twenty five career games.
(02:53):
Travis Die is that experienced senior bringing that veteran leadership.
And you saw what the USC team kind of rallying
around him when he was carted off the field. Very
unfortunate injury for him against Colorado. But again, what does
that mean for this USC stable of running backs. Well,
they're very talented, Austin Jones, Barlow Brown. I mean, you know,
these are all four or five star kids. But we'll
(03:16):
see if they're able to replicate that, you know, production
and that intangible leadership that Travis Dy brings to the
table on the other side of the ball. I think
this is the largest mismatch of this game. U c
l A's running offense against USC's defensive line. U c
l A is a very physical football team top five
(03:37):
and almost every adjusted line yards opportunity rate, top ten,
stuff rate and sacker. I mean, they are very good
up front and they're gonna make life very difficult for
a USC defense that has some pieces there. But they
always play as one and I think that's the advantage
for U c l A in this game. I think
they're more physical and I think eventually that will win
(04:00):
it out. Now Corid Caleb Williams play out of his
mind and steal this game. Of course, that's how talented
he is. But at the core matchup here, I think
U c l A has an edge in the trenches,
especially their offense against the Trojans defense. Yeah, and the
last three meetings between these teams have been score fests.
It's neither can stop either. Last three games eighty seven
(04:22):
combined points, eighty one and then ninety five combined points.
The total right now as we speak has said at
seventy five and a half at bet MGM. I don't
know if you have that stat off the top of
your head, Jared, it's somewhere in the seventy range, like
what the trend is as of late. With games getting
(04:44):
up to that high of a total, the under is
hit at a staggering rate. It's gonna be challenged in
this game because it should be a score fest. Yeah,
I've got When the total is closes at seventy five
or higher, the under actually is about a fifty three
fifty percent trend. And this goes back to pretty far
(05:05):
back two thousand and five, so you know, and that's
a pretty big sample size with a total of seventy
five or higher. But that being said, we saw the
pack twelve Washington and Oregon play a game like this
last week that stayed under. So um, I'm not immediately
running to the window to bet the over just because
the total is very high. Usually the saying if it's high,
(05:26):
it's high for a reason, low low for a reason. Right,
You're always supposed to bet under on the lowest total
on the board and over on the highest total on
the board. But I don't really subscribe to that line
of thinking because I like to look at each game individually,
and I'll be honest. The one nugget here and I
credit um um Brad Power is a fantastic professional college
football better that that that does a lot of media
and he came out with this. And I didn't notice
(05:48):
this because I didn't watch the u c l A
Arizona game. But the turf at the Rose Bowl is
in bad shape right now. They were slip sliding everywhere.
So I don't know what the grounds crew is doing
this week down there in Pasadena, but that is something
to keep an eye on in this game. If the
turf is a little slippy, I don't want to be
(06:09):
holding an over ticket, that's for sure. Yeah. Wow, I
thought the trend was a little bit better to the under.
It's just a little bit over on the under one
at seventy five. Yeah, I just think this. I don't
know if you feel the same way. It just feels
like a pack twelve thing. It's not if things will
fall apart for USC it's just when when It could
(06:30):
be this Saturday against u c l A, or next
week against Notre Dame, or if they're able to win
out and get to the Pack twelve championship game. It
just feels like something is going to go hey wire
for the best chance to Pack twelve has to get
to a college football playoff Berth. Yeah, I mean to me,
it's Utah and we'll get to them in a minute.
But I have been and Utah, let's be honest, they've
(06:51):
under achieved our expectations this year, despite the fact that
unless they lose the Colorado next week, which is not
gonna happen, they will go over there. There there pretty
a win total of eight and a half. I think
it closed nine, so some people might push and if
they win this week then then then they'll definitely go
over um I Utah is the spoiler here because they've
got two losses and one of them was bad early
(07:11):
in the year to Florida, and I could absolutely see
them spoiling the party winning the Pack twelfth championship. And
you know you're not gonna send a two lost Pack
twelve champion to the to the College wall playoff unfortunately. Yeah,
let's get to that game. So we've got number ten
Utah against number twelve or again, both are eight and two.
You've got the Ducks small favorites at home, favorite by
(07:32):
two and a half at bet MGM. The question is
bo Nicks. Bo Nicks got banged up at the end
of the loss against Washington last week. He's got an
ankle injury. There is some speculation that he's gonna give
it a go, but he's probably not gonna be his
true home bow nick self in this game. And if
that's the case, Man in Oregon plus two and a
(07:55):
half could be looking pretty at the end of this one.
They've been great on the road there five to know
against the spread since the start of the seventeen season.
I know that's a dated trend, but they are three
and o against the spread as an underdog. That's a
more recent trend, and they played well the last couple
of weeks. We're seeing them play their best football of
the season. As is typical of a Kyle Whittingham team,
(08:17):
they seem to close strong. Yeah, and I love Kyle
Whittingham as a head coach and I like Dan Landing
a lot too. But let's be honest, the experience on
the sidelines absolutely goes to winning him in this spot.
And this has been a matchup historically, maybe not historically,
but last year that was absolutely dominated by the Utes
and it was the physicality that Utah brought to the
(08:39):
table that really frustrated Oregon a little more flash flash
in the pan kind of offense last year, and it
was thirty eight thirty eight seven in the PAC twelfth.
I mean it was domination from the Oregon Duck side
of the field. When it comes to trying to move
the football against Utass defense, well, Utass defense isn't quite
the same defense as last year. And the thing that
(09:01):
is intriguing we mentioned this a few weeks ago when
you talk kinda was suf some pretty soft, you know,
pretty decent talent on the defensive side of the ball.
They lost a couple of pieces, but they still, you know,
pretty good players up there. We're really struggling against the run.
And what that did is that opened up the pass
and now Utah is outside the top one hundred in
passing efficiency on the defensive side, despite having Clark Phillips,
(09:22):
who's arguably the best corner in the country. So it's
kind of this cat and mouse game with Morgan Scali.
You'll load up the box to stop the run. Well,
now you're susceptible in the secondary. We'll see schematically how
Utah approaches this game. But you're right, bo Nix is
the key here. This line flipped we're recording this on
a Thursday. On Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, we started
to see Steam into the market one and a half,
(09:43):
Oregon flip to now pick them, and now Utah is
the favorite and Utah is actually, I don't want to
say sizeable favorite, but when you go from Oregon minus
three on Monday to now Utah minus two on Thursday,
that's a pretty significant move. And my guess is, if
bone Nicks does get announced out, this will get through
that key number of three. But I would be very
(10:04):
careful making a bet based off of speculation. In fact,
we just saw the situation play out a few weeks
ago with Utah. Nobody knew Cameron Rising was hurt all
of a sudden, he doesn't play in the game against
Washington State. Line goes Haywire about thirty minutes before, and
it's just really tough to get any information that's solid
about these injuries at the college level. So I think
(10:25):
this game to me is a stay away until we
get some definitive news on bone Eggs. If it does
get to Oregon plus three, maybe through that key number
of three, I'm sure there will be some appetite to
bet the number, not based off context, but just based
off of number as a home dog. But I'll be honest,
I think this is a Utah spot even if bon
Nix plays. I really like the physicality Utah brings to
(10:48):
the table. A little concerned about the schematics, as I
mentioned with the defensive coordinator Morgan Scali, but I do
think in my eyes, Utah is poised to pull this
upset off. It's not an upset anymore. But if it
was Bonick, I still think, especially if I was getting three,
I would consider the youth. Yeah, it's uh. I think
about the line movement in this one. We always talk
(11:08):
about closing line value. And what's interesting about this is
that you taught, like you said, is now the favorite.
They're favored by two on the road, and you could think,
a man, I should have got Utah plus three or
Utah plus two or whatever, and now they're minus two.
But you know, as you just said, it could still
(11:28):
be going in their direction where they're favored by three.
So if you hopped, if you wanted to, if you
take your advice and you like the Utes in this game,
regardless of bo Nick's status, if you get them at
minus two, it's still might might be some closing line
value if it ticks up to three. So the point is,
I would compare it to like taking a road trip.
(11:49):
If you're driving and you're looking at gas prices, and
let's say it's at three dollars, and then you're driving
north and it gets up to three ten, you could think, man,
I should have got it at three dollars, But guess
what you drive fifty more miles, it's gonna be you
know what I mean? So getting three ten is better.
(12:10):
So I think that about Utah right now at minus two.
I don't expect that to change. I don't think that
bow Knicks is all of a sudden there's gonna be
news that he's gonna be like his home bow Nick self.
So I think there's gonna be more money on Utah
of anybody in this spot. You know, we should coin
homebow Knicks trade market. Um. Another element to this game
(12:31):
that I think is fascinating. Utah's offense has been really
good this year. They've scored a bunch of points in
a bunch of different games, but it's really been Cameron Rising.
The one thing we saw last week against Stanford. I
know it's one game, and I know it's Stanford, Kathy,
and Thomas has re emerged and he's had a very
interesting career, very up and down throughout the course of
his tenure in Salt Lake, but career high hundred and
(12:51):
eighty yards on the ground against Stanford, and I'm not
gonna say he's gonna repeat that against Oregan's defensive line,
which is pretty stout, certainly much stouter than Stanford's. But
to me, if you have a ground game that can
at least take some of the pressure off Cameron Rising,
get him in more play action boots and waggles on
the edge where he can be a little more effective
with the defense kind of honing in on the run.
(13:14):
I do think that's going to create some problems for
Oregon secondary because what do we see last week with Washington,
Oregon can be had up top. Now, I don't think
Utah has the quote unquote dudes to do what Washington did.
Washington's got some serious talent at wide receiver, and I
think Michael Pennocks at his core a better pure passer
than Cameron Rising. But I love the tight end matchup
(13:37):
with Dalton Kinkaid. He's actually the leading receiver on this
Utes team with fifty catches this year, and keep an
eye on Davon v lay Blay. I apologize by mispronounced
his name. He's been trending up of late. He's the
one guy on the outside, six ft five receiver, twenty
four years old, sophomore. He served an LDS mission in Samoa,
so he has a lot of life experience and he's
starting to play a little bit better. And that's the
(13:58):
one thing Utah has been lacking this year is that
playmaker at wide receiver. Of course, Kincaid's a stud at
tight end, and they lost Dalton Keithy, their other start
tight end um you know, early in the year with
an injury. But if they do get v l A
and maybe another guy on the outside, that can create
some problems for this Oregan secondary, which again has been
susceptible at times this year. I think it makes this
(14:19):
game a lot easier for Cameron Rising, who's obviously going
to have a lot of responsibility on his shoulders, and
Austen on Saturday Night. Yeah, it's an interesting one because
I always think about the potential ripple effect in any game,
and if Homebow knicks Tashtag it. If he's not feeling
like his homebow knicks self, then you might see a
(14:40):
couple of three and out. It's this is an Oregon
defense that has been very leaky, and you saw it
last week. This is a very physical U taught team.
You talked about U c l A being physical, and
they are, so is Utah. So just think about Oregon's
leaky defense. They're giving up an average of thirty four
points this season two ranked opponents thirty are points. So
(15:01):
imagine if there are a couple of three and outs.
Oregon's offense isn't as prolific as it typically has been,
and that Ducks defense is tired out even more against
a very physical Utah team. That is not a good
recipe for the Ducks plus two or outright or anything.
I think in this one, let's shift over to one
more here. Got something on that week one, and you
(15:22):
know we were on Utah that week. This Utah team
is like one fumble in the red zone away against
Florida from really being in the playoff conversation. And it's unfortunate.
And that's why i'd like to I mean, we talked
about this, well, I'm sure we'll talk about it again
on Saturday. The twelve team format gives a chance for
a team like Utah that in my eyes is deserving of,
(15:46):
you know, consideration for the playoff, but because of the
four team format, two losses just isn't gonna make it happen.
In the new format, Utah wins out there in the playoff,
and I think they're a well coached team with an
app salute star at quarter. I mean, Cameron Rising is
a star, and I not a lot of people know
it because they play in a conference that doesn't get
a lot of pub and of course, you know he's
(16:07):
he's just not a you know, a flashy quarterback, and
he's not gonna be on the Heisman podium. But Cameron
Rising deserves a lot of national attention, and maybe he'll
get some this week and of course in the PAC
twelfth Championship game going forward. If you talk n went out, well,
let's move to a team getting a lot of national
attention after last week. That would be TCU. Horned Frogs
are number four in the country. They take on Baylor.
(16:28):
Baylor is a home underdog plus two and a half.
But TCU, when a lot of people were taking Texas
last week, and I get it. The metrics, the analytics,
all that information was favoring Texas, and TCU said, take
your metrics and shove them because they absolutely shut down
in Texas the entire game. Texas didn't score an offensive touchdown.
(16:51):
But now you go on the road, you take on Baylor.
Baylor at six and four is a tough matchup for TCU.
Or it's the tight sphincter theory that I have here, Jared.
When you get closer and closer and closer to the
finish line, meaning a college football playoff birth, maybe you
start to grip a little bit if it's a fourth
(17:12):
quarter game, if it's a one possession game late. But
if TCUs defense plays like they did last week going forward,
they're gonna be in the playoff. The question is can
they do that? That was a master class performance by
TCUs defense last week. And we talked about this before
we hopped on. If you would have said, okay, Jared,
(17:33):
we're betting on Texas this week, and I can give
you a glimpse into my crystal ball into the future.
With twenty minutes remaining in the game, basically late third quarter,
TCUs offense will only have three points. How do you
feel about your Texas bet? I'd be running in the
window to try to bet more on it, and it
(17:55):
could not have been further from the truth. With twenty
minutes left in that game, I felt I wanted to
rip up that ticket and use it as toilet paper
because Texas was so bad offensively. Sark just got his
He just got his brain kicked in by TCUs defense. Now,
I don't know if it was scheme, if it was effort,
if it was talent. I I can't explain TCUs defense,
(18:20):
which is outside of the top eighty and so many
categories and by so many metrics. They are just not
a good defense. Yet they held this Texas team basically
in check. Now this matchup, I hope will go a
little differently. And it is kind of ironic that despite
that game last week, the market is still disrespecting TCU.
(18:42):
I mean, they are less than a fuel goal favorite
on the road dranted against an unranked opponent. They are
a top five team. I mean it. I don't recall
a time in the market that has been this and
I don't remember the exact number, but last week, the
length of or the you know, the size of the
favorite being against the top five team against it, you know,
(19:04):
against a team that was outside of the top ten.
It was like the biggest favorite ever in that spot.
You know, I don't remember, I don't recall what the
exact metrics of it were, but it's like a historic
fade for TCU in the market. So you have to
ask yourself, is this the week that TCU is gonna
slip up? Well, David rand is a pretty good coach,
and despite that very uncharacteristic loss last week to Kansas State,
(19:27):
which they just got their doors blasted off too, I
do believe in this Bailer front, especially the offensive line,
which has gotten really good pushed this year and has
faced a pretty difficult schedule, and I I feel like
Baylor is a live dog in this spot. And I
know two and a half isn't exactly a massive underdog pig,
but it's just it to me, I I don't believe
(19:49):
in TCU and that the handicap is the same as
it was last week. Nothing about last week's game changes
my feelings here because I just don't think that TCU
defensive performance is reputable and I think to me, Baylor
offense cannot play any worse than Texas offense did last week.
Blake Shapon needs to play well, and he's been a
struggle this year. Eight picks, you know, through an opening
(20:11):
drive pick against Kansas State and then it just kind
of unraveled from there. We'll see if he polishes things
up this week. But David Randa, I could see his
defense shutting down this area of TCU, and that's to me,
the defensive you know, mindset for this Bailor team. I think,
you know, plays into what this game will be. And
it's an it's an afternoon game. It's actually an eleven
(20:31):
o'clock kickoff locally in Waco, and TCU struggle a little
bit defensively early kickoffs. Thirty one points at West Virginia,
gave up thirty one points at Kansas, gave up thirty
four at s m U, all on the road, all
in that early windows. So I I know it sounds
crazy after what we saw last week, but I think
Baylor to me is very very live in this spot.
(20:54):
They are live, and think about it, Baylor being six
and four, this can make their entire season absolutely one game,
one win against a top five team. So it's always
a dangerous spot when a team has had a disappointing
year but could make up for it with one great
performance or just good enough to get a win. So
we'll see how that shakes out. Very much looking forward
(21:15):
to that. That's on Big Fox, by the way, Fox
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What is this twelve? Already? Doesn't crazy Week twelve slate
(21:39):
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the King of Sports Books. We like to welcome in
now Bill kracken Burger Sports Andy Kapper from crack wayns
dot com joining us here on the podcast. Let's get
right to week eleven. Here crack Carolina at the Ravens.
The Ravens are minus thirteen. They are thirteen point favorites
(22:19):
in this one. No P J. Walker has a high
ankle spraying, which is like, did he finish the game
last week against it let whatever? He's out Baker Mayfield
in Are you taking the thirteen points and running running
with Baker and the Panthers in this spot? Crack? Well,
I'm not laying it. I can't believe Baltimore is just high. Actually,
(22:40):
this game opened up, by the way, this team opened
up on a on a look aheadline at about nine
eight and a half, nine nine and a half up
to thirteen. Now, maybe because of the situation you mentioned there, Carolina. Listen,
they beat Tampa, right, I mean, this is uh, this
is a game that you were when I actually on
the opposite sides here and not on it. I didn't
bet the game. I just Carolina getting double digits. I
(23:03):
know they are they're they're just a wounded team. But
there's still situations like that happened, like like like that
Tampa Bay game. Thirteen sounds like too many points, but
you know, maybe Baltimore will you know, they're they're due
for a big game. So this might be it, This
might be this, This might show that where they belong.
They may be that wild card type of odd but
(23:25):
my odds wise. Now, like I said, Buffalo and Kansas
City you gets throw out, there's gotta be other teams
you throw in then maybe a Baltimore, maybe a Minnesota.
You can still get double digits on these guys to
being a super Bowl, to win a super Bowl. So
we're gonna see what's gonna happen here this weekend with them. Yeah,
I wonder if that's I don't know, baked into that line.
Do you ever see this crack? We're going back two
(23:47):
weeks ago the last time Carolina was on the road,
they got crushed by Cincinnati, and that was without Jamaar Chase.
Remember it was like thirty five nothing. Do you think
that's baked into this current line? Carolina at ball probably
even two weeks ago, probably yeah, probably looking at that
game and they weren't going against it, like you said, uh,
(24:09):
since then, I didn't even have their star wide receiver
that game. So they automatically say, wow, if that happened,
then what what what's Baltimore gonna do to them? You know,
what's what's going to do to him? So, uh, you're right,
it probably is. I'm not on this game. I'm not
betting the game, but I'll tell you what. Tell me
how many times during the season you're gonna find a
double digit dog, especially I'm not that it's a key number.
(24:32):
We know three, seven, six, ten, I'll even throw thirteen
in areas, maybe the eighth choice or something. As these
key numbers, you don't ever find a key a thirteen
point spread, but only a forty one point total. Oh
my god, you never see it. You never see it.
You know this may be one of those. And I
haven't even looked at this yet. I'm just this is
gonna be live here on the show. You might have
(24:55):
to give me Baltimore and over correlated first half bar
light minus to seven over one. If a sports book
is gonna take that from me, I may bet that.
I may bet the minus seven over one. And you
see the correlation there, because you know, even though you're
only getting thirteen to five on a parlay, you're actually
if you're going to cover the seven, chances are the
(25:18):
games going to go over the one points first half.
So there's something I'll be deeply looking at coming into
and going at the Sunday nice. How about this one
Philly at Indianapolis. And the way I think about this
crack is it's a good spot if you want to
bet the opposite of last week's results, where if you
(25:39):
think about the Colts first game with Jeff Saturday as
the head coach, they beat the Raiders. They were a
laughing stock of total joke going into the game. Then
they won the game, and so maybe there's over reaction
to that. And then you think about the Monday night
game Philadelphia with four turnovers, they lose outright to Washington
is a double digit favorite, and so you look at
(26:02):
this current matchup Eagles at the Colts. Eagles are favored
by six and a half. So if you want to
bet against last week's results, you're betting against the Colts
who won. You're betting on the Eagles who lost their
first game of the year. What do you think about that?
But you had a three and five Indianapolis Colts team
(26:23):
that literally I thought, if they lose that game, they're
just playing for like you know, draft picks next year,
next year, go on the road. I think the game
was in um In. I think I'm almost positive it
was it was in Vegas, and just it was it
wasn't in Vegas. Yeah it was. Yeah, Vegas is just
that that just shows how terrible Vegas is. Two and
(26:44):
seven Las Vegas Raiders Jesus. Um, you know I'm rooting
against them the whole season though, But as far as
the Colts go, this game maybe turned around their hopes
for the season. Listen, the ANFC souths nothing great. I mean, um,
Tennessee is supposed to lose tonight and supposedly right ver
saw Green Bay. There's six and three. They could be
(27:06):
six and four here. You can have Indianapolis five and
five if they win this game. Uh, they're they're they're
playing for something now. Um, you know, maybe maybe under
this new guy, Jeff Saturday. Uh, they they got a
little bit of a renowned hope and and and hopefully
they can do something in Situationally, I'm not looking to
lay the Eagles on the road debts for sure, I'm
(27:27):
definitely not. But um, you know, the Eagles may be
upset about last weekend two. This was a that was
a big game for them. They were they were double
digit favorites losing to Washington and not supposed to lose
that game, like you said, four turnovers and uh, this, this,
this situation really warrants a probably a better game than
we think. It is probably gonna be a better game
(27:48):
than we think, a good game to maybe even watch.
We'll see what happens. I wanted to get your opinion
on this crack. Where as we speak right now, there
are six games where the point spread is exactly three,
and that just stands out to me as I look
at all these games, and so what's your takeaway when
it comes to that, Like, obviously it's a parody driven league,
(28:10):
we get all of that. But from a betting perspective,
are you more likely to hone in on some of
those games if you like value, like either laying the
three or taking the three, I'm sure you'll bet it.
But do you start to go away from that and
say that it could be a push land right on
the number. Let me look at a different game. How
do you approach that? It's the reason why I like
(28:31):
to buy Honor Office three. If I'm betting a favorite,
like the bet the two and a half, I'm betting
a dog. I like to take three and a half,
especially on the lower totals. So if you're talking a
game like like the Jets New England eight, oh my god,
I am definitely. I'm looking on the on my screen
in front of me that I see three cents three
and a half. So I do my line shopping if
(28:53):
I want New England. I'm looking at the lay that three.
Um you know, so I'm looking actually even buy the
two and a half. Now the minus three is minus
fifteen already. I'm not real too keen on going with
to minus two and a half minus thirty five, boy,
I'd rather just look in that case, i just look
at the money line and lay like the one sixty
five on the money line that happened to buy it
(29:14):
down to minus one thirty five on the other side
of the ball there plus three and a half that
maybe four or five shops already, Um, I would look
to take the free and a half. The same thing
with um these totals, um, these other games that have
a low total, So I'm looking to to go uh
also the same thing. Especially the lower to total, the
(29:35):
more valuable those points are. So I'm looking at the
either a money line or I'm looking to be to
minus two and a half or plus three and a half.
By the way, I love this line. I just have
to mention it. Dallas at Minnesota. Minnesota has lost one game.
They had a miraculous win last week. Their home underdogs.
(29:55):
They are home underdogs against the cow Boys. What do
you think about that? What's your reaction to that line? Uh? Wow,
I'll tell you this, this this is the game of
the week. I'm it's prime time. I don't know, it's
not prime time, it's private. It's the later games, one
of the three lader games. It's the later game to watch. Obviously,
have Denver, Las Vegas garbage, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, keep that Minnesota
(30:20):
Dallas game of the day, probably even looking at the
whole schedule, probably the game of the day, not not
in the game of not even the game of the
late games. This is the game of the day to watch.
Line opened up two down the one and a half. Listen,
I shouldn't say down to one and half. It opened
up to It's like two one and a half one.
It's the same. The total opened up forty seven and
(30:41):
a half. It's still forty seven and a half. This
is the game of the week. I'll be rooting for Minnesota.
Because I have Dallas shootures which on a dog right now,
when I have under on Dallas season wins, this is
this is gonna be the Teeter Totter week that I
need to I need Minnesota to beat them. So, um,
it should should be uh should be good. It should
(31:05):
be a great game. Would you say, would you say
Minnesota is the team that Vegas is most skeptical love again,
they're one lost team and they're a they're a home underdog,
and this one Vegas is a huge on the Giants.
There are a few other teams, but do you think
Minnesota is on the top of the list. Well, I'll
tell you they're like the fifth choice. I mean, let's
(31:26):
look at their record. They just but now, they just
had a legit game. So they had some easier games,
you know, Lions, Sants, Bears, they even I guess Arizona, Washington.
This Buffalo game was a very big game for them.
So now that people are looking more serious at them,
if they beat Dallas, they were a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Yeah.
(31:48):
Huge game, Absolutely huge game. Hey, be sure to check
out the new looking features in the bed MGM app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports You love,
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the
cash out feature. New users can use the code Countdown
for a special offer. Alright, make sure you check us
out on Sunday, Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented
(32:09):
by bed MGM Bill Krakenburger. You just heard all of
the inside. He'll have picks and information galore. We'll have
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran. He does a really
great job too. I'm probably now I'll be along for
the ride. So that's ten am to one pm Eastern
Time leading right up to kick off. We'll get you
all set for Week eleven.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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