November 24, 2022 • 33 mins
Brian Noe previews a huge weekend in football with the sharpest minds in betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to preview gigantic rivalry games in college football, including Ohio State vs. Michigan and USC vs. Notre Dame. The guys discuss the battle between TCU and USC for a playoff spot. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to discuss this weekend in the NFL, including Bengals vs. Titans and Packers vs. Eagles!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness greatness? NFL fans, Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
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(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet mg AFP Nah. We're live
from your tailgame here. It's Brian No, no, everybody, what's
going on? Welcome to Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet M,
(00:46):
the official podcast. Over here, we'll have Jared Smith, Puckins
in College. We'll have Bill Racketberger, Pokings and fl both
shark betters. I'm Bryant No new users down looks bet
F g MP today and used to countdown for a
special lot for That's code Countdown at the bed En
gyp app. We welcome in Jared Smith here. We are
(01:07):
recording this on Thursday, on Thanksgiving, No days off, baby,
Happy Thanksgivings you jars shaded Brian, thankful for this lovely
vehicle that we have every week. Um and it's been
a it's been a fun season. We're talking before it
came on, like this is it, like this is the
last week of the regular season, like the swan song
(01:29):
of what's been a journey for us with this new show,
and it's it's been a blast. So we appreciate all
you guys listening and consuming the content, like you're going
to consume your turkeys at some point today, that's right.
And I don't want any trash talking about turkey from
anyone on this day. You know, I'm not just talking
about you and me, Jared, I'm talking about this just
in general. I don't want to turkey. I could see
(01:52):
some takes. This is about the time of year where
they put out the power rankings of Thanksgiving food. I've
seen turkey lower on the list, but like, is it
completely off the list? Some people have it completely off
the list? They're crazy. I say, those people haven't had
from turkey. That's it. They haven't had good turkey. Someone
prepared it, didn't know what they were doing, and now
they hate turkey. It's it's it's unfair, it's it's sad, right, yeah, really,
(02:13):
but I got something to brighten your mood. The slate
of Saturday college football over here about this number three Michigan,
number two Ohio State to get things going on Big
Fox twelve noon Eastern time. To me, it's all about
Blake Corehum. Is he healthy? Can he go? Is he
a fraction of himself? Because if he isn't, the Blake
(02:33):
Corehum stud that we've seen throughout this season is gonna
be way worse than what happened last week against Illinois,
where Michigan had to scratch out a win. This is
gonna be boat Race City if Blake can't go. I
think yeah, And I think there's some interesting, you know,
depth issues for both teams. The first part about this
game that I looked at, you know, we saw some
(02:55):
weather in Columbus. Well that's kind of clearing up now,
and I think that obviously favors Ohio State. Of course,
you want to make sure you check the weather forecast
before you play some big wager on this game. And
you know, when we get closer to Saturday, we'll know
a little more. But if it's clear, and you know,
you keep the rain in the wind away from Columbus
for at least, you know, the morning afternoon time. I
(03:15):
think that obviously favors the Buckeys, who want to throw
the ball more down the field. It's kind of interesting
because you have this, you have both teams that I
think are very good at their top tier, but both teams,
like I said, have had their depth tested by injuries.
And with Michigan, you saw the drop off last week
against Illinois when Koram left the game. It just there
was nothing there offensively, and J. J. McCarthy's really struggled
(03:39):
pushing it down the field. You know, he had a
forty eight percent complice percentage against Rutgers. He had his
worst QBR this season last weekgainst Illinois, and you saw
that drop off. Meanwhile, for Ohio State down to their
third string running back to last week, Henderson was out,
mind Williams is out and then all of a sudden,
Dallin Hayte and a freshman comes in who is a
five star kid twenty having a buck forty six three
(04:01):
tuddies against Maryland. So and I think that's kind of
a good barometer of where these programs are. Michigan is
good at the top. I don't think they're as deep
as Ohio State. Like I think Ohio State goes one
layer deeper with like the studs that they can bring
off the bench at these skill positions than Michigan does.
And again, if Michigan can't push the ball down the field,
I don't know where they get offense in this game.
(04:22):
And I think that's why he saw this total drop
a little bit. And I'll be honest, I really like
the buck eyes in this spot. And you know, maybe
we get some Michigan money over the weekend that gets
this the seven, But even at seven and a half,
I I think it's a play on Ohio State. For me.
By the way, what's your gut feeling? And I know
this is tough, man, very tough, but in the world
of gambling, you need to have a gut feeling on
what you think Michigan is gonna get from Blake Coreum.
(04:44):
It's the complete X factor and he's normally we saved
the X factor for the fringe player, but the X
factor is his injury. We know he's a stud, but
how effective do you think he's gonna be. It's impossible
to know. I mean I saw a friend who's a
Michigan fan on Twitter the other day say he wouldn't
you know you saw him at the you know, the
(05:05):
turkey donation thing, given you know, holding all these turkeys,
and my friend Tweeter like, yeah, I don't think they
would have had him holding twenty pound turkeys walking around
in the cold if he wasn't you know, at least
trending in a positive direction. So my guess is he
plays and he's less than But again, you saw the
drop off there, and I think that's really the key.
(05:27):
And you go back to last year's game. It was
the running game that sealed it. Now that was in
snowy conditions in Ann Harbor. They had Hassan Haskins, they
had a much better offensive line, and they don't have
any of those things this year. So I I'm concerned
that you're not just gonna get this mission. You know,
people watched last year's game and they see the rankings
and they're like, wait a minute, you know, how State
(05:48):
Michigan or two three, how can we you know, get
a seven and a half points. But so I I
concerned with the game plan from Michigan because if they
get into a negative game script and Ohio State starts
fast even if it's seven four nothing, and you know,
let's say mid second quarter. J J. McCarthy turns into
a passer, and I just don't believe that they can
be that explosive. They've been banged up at receiver all year.
(06:08):
Ronnie Bell has been very inconsistent, and again the numbers
from McCarthy have been poor, I think mediocre at best.
So I'm concerned if this is you know, tan fourteen
nothing at half or mid second quarter, what are we
going to see for Michigan's offense and Ohio State as
long as they're relatively healthy. I I think C. J.
Stroud just is a level above anyone that you know
(06:29):
Michigan can bring to the table offensively in this game.
I'll just say last thing on this game for for
right now is uh I think football. I love it, man,
but it is just cruel. This should be Blake Coreum's
spot to have a good game. I don't know if
it's gonna be Michigan spot even with him fully healthy
for them to win the game, but it should be
the spot where he has a special game. He's been
(06:52):
a monster all season long and now he's dinged up.
I just think this should be his what Tim Biakapatua
time like, right this is the time for him to
have the exclamation point on what has been a very
special season. And man, I just don't know if we're
gonna see that with him being a little bit limited.
We'll see how it plays out. Let's shift it to
(07:13):
this Saturday night. Notre Dame taken on USC. USC up
to six in the College Football Playoff rankings. They got
leapfrogged by L s U. Pretty interesting, but USC. They
survived last week against u C l A unbelievable where
they U C. L A had what four turnovers like
(07:35):
US had four takeaways and they're scratching out a win
that they give up forty five points that they got
the w they got it done. But defense optional in
this one. I think you and I could move the
ball against the Trojan, so I expect Notre Dame to
be able to do it. And USC's offense is just
absolutely lethal. The total we have at sixty four and
(07:55):
a half at bet MGM, it should be another track
made I'm envisioning here. Yeah, I mean the game plan
for sure for the Irish is just to be physical,
right like like like that's where they have an edge
here top thirty and schedule adjusted rushing success or at
USC's defense outside the top one and basically every rushing
defensive metric that's ever been invented by the nerds. So
(08:18):
it's just there's not a lot of starch upfront for
this Trojans defense, and the Notre Dame offense has proven
it in big games that they can line up and
pound it right down your throat. Now, the one negative here,
I think, if I'm Lincoln Riley and I win the toss,
I want the ball. I want to score first. I
(08:39):
want to put Drew Pine in a negative game script,
and then I want to let the chips fall as
they may. That's how Notre Dame. You know, if you
want to ask me the path to USC covering here
with a leaky defense against the physical offense, it's getting
Drew Pine into a fourteen nothing hole early or even
seven nothing, frankly, like, just put the pressure on Notre
(08:59):
Dame to get out of what they want to do,
which is absolutely run the ball right down the Trojans throats,
create play action on later downs. The only way you
can do that is if you get into third and manageable.
So to me, it's all about who gets the ball first,
who gets off to the good start. If it's USC
and it's a two score lead, that's where Notre Dame
(09:20):
really is going to struggle here. If Notre Dame has
the tempo and they're on the front foot, this is
a scary spot for USC. I see a lot of
variants here, I do, And I think this is a
game that I won't be betting UM because I can
see this game vastly swinging two wildly different ways, and
it's really about who gets off to the better start. Yeah,
(09:41):
it's really interesting. How look, man, this is I guess
you would say it's moving day. It's it's beyond moving
day when it comes to the college football playoff rankings.
Right where USC, it's right there for him. If you
think about the loser of Ohio State Michigan, I mean,
they're they're in a world of hurt whoever loses that
game in terms of getting into the playoff. So if
(10:03):
USC wins out US, the USC should be in a
pretty favorable spot. Thanks would have to get pretty goofy
for them to not get into the playoff. So it
starts with the win against Notre Dame and we'll see
where it goes from there. But if you win two
straight games, USC against Notre Dame and the PAC twelfth
Championship game, they should be sitting pretty well. It just
(10:25):
depends on what happens around them. If that's the case, Yeah,
you can't leave him out if that's the case. I
mean that, Like, and again, I had this discussion with
and this is a great discussion. I'm sure our producer
Ryan's listening to this and he'll maybe add this into
the rundown for this week. But the comparison between TCU
as an undefeated Power five champion and USC as a
(10:49):
one lost Power five champion, I'll be honest USC, like, like,
if all things being equal, and there's one spot left,
and those are the two teams that I can choose
from now, I don't know what universe that actually will
take transpiring because most of the universe is USC and
tc You both could get spots and and this conversation
(11:09):
is avoided, But let's just live in a vacuum for
a minute and say you have one spot left and
it's USC Pack twelve champion, one loss, TCU undefeated Power five.
I would pick USC because isn't the goal to get
the best teams? And like, when I look at TCU,
and I look at USC, and I stack them up
(11:30):
and I take away the win loss record, and I
just look at star power metrics, you know, how your
how your offense operates, what they look like, who you've beaten.
I think USC is better, but I've got controlled for
that take. So I I take your your criticism or
your pushback, um, you know, seriously, because I don't know
(11:51):
if I'm wrong here. Yeah, it's if TCU wins out
there in no questions. Yeah they agree, But which team
would you rather see played archer Brian. Would you rather
see Georgia played TCU or would you rather see Georgie's
defense go up against Caleb Williams and this USC offer? Well,
I'm with you on that, but that's not a reason
to vote in USC, you know. Otherwise, like why are
(12:13):
we even bothering with playing these games if we're just
gonna go with the biggest brand name that's in the
vicinity of that. It's not like USC is a three
lost team. There. They lost by one point to arguably
the next best team in the Pack twelve, and the
PAC twelve far and away is the better conference this year,
and they have played far and away the tougher schedule,
so they have how do you value that one loss
(12:33):
compared to the undefeated considering the competition that they've played. Yeah,
I just you know as well as I do. You
can make all these points, and that's great, But you
know as well as I do. USC is gonna be
left out in the cold if it comes down to
undefeated TCU versus USC. It's just the way it's gonna probably, right,
But I would like to see You're right. This is
(12:54):
one of those spots where it's who I want, not
who I think, right, Like, I've seen this story before.
We've seen Washington and the you know, the really middling
Power five champions with no explosion on offense and really
no top to your talent go up against the Alabamas
and the Clemsons when they were number one, And it's
(13:15):
been ugly in those semifinals, very ugly. And I'm trying
to think to myself, like, what what's the what's the
best game? Like? Who were the best teams? Really? Like
how do you judge that? And we see this in
the college basketball tournament all the time. You know, the
the a c C team with twelve losses for the
at large spot against the you know, mid major that's
(13:36):
twenties seven and three. You know, like it's like, how
do you judge those teams and who they are? It's tough.
And listen, while we're living in the four team playoff world,
you're gonna have in some years a really strong number
five team that gets less. Like that's just the way
it is. One more real quick here, Jared, We've got
(13:57):
Oregon at Oregon State the art formerly known as the
Civil War. I don't know what we're calling this thing now,
but it's a good matchup. And look, Ben, Oregon State
has been tough this year. Oregon with a gritty, very
un characteristic of the Pack twelve type win last week
twenty to seventeen against Utah, but cam Rising just a
(14:18):
lot of mistakes, Gritty bow Knicks. We talked about home
bow Nicks. That was gritty bow Knicks who was completely
limited yet did enough to get Oregon in position to
win the game. That's exactly what they did. Oregon on
the outside of the playoff chase, looking in as the
Pack twelve cannibalized itself yet again, excluding USC that's still alive.
(14:38):
But how about this one Oregon Oregon State a lot
of emotion in Corvallis when it comes to this game.
For sure. Yeah, we talked about core um from Michigan. Obviously,
bow Nick's health here dictates so much with game plan
and scheme. And you saw it last week. You saw
a game plan last week for Oregon that was not
(14:59):
desig line for bow Knicks. He was in the shotgun
a ton. It looked like there were a lot of
zone reads that were called that weren't executed, and that's
because they wanted thy Thompson and they thought ty Thompson
was gonna be playing quarterback for Organ who was as
as mobile as bow Knicks is. Like that's what thy
Thompson does, Like he is a running quarterback whereas bow Knicks,
I would call him more dual threat. Then all of
a sudden, bow Knicks guts it out plays the game.
(15:21):
But most of the packages were designed for Thompson, So
Utah just stacked the box and made things very difficult
for an Organ offense that was about below their rushing
success rate on season average. So different vibe this week.
I'm sure you know Kenny Dillingham will draw something up
that's a little more bone Knicks friendly pro bow probably
(15:43):
see a lot more under center runs, probably see a
lot more play action off of it, and you know,
limited with the bootlegs and and and the rollouts and
this sort of Listen, this organ State defense played really
well this year. That's absolutely the strength of this team.
Jonathan Smith is kind of revitalized this defense. It's offensively
that the bors are just so limited. Benda Branson's like,
if you looked up uh, you know, situational game manager
(16:06):
in the dictionary, they'd have a picture of his face. Um,
And it's just I don't know what you're gonna see
from Oregon State offensively here, but total kind of hovering
in that, you know, mid fifties range, which for Organs
pretty low, and we're seeing a little movement now to
three and a half, so maybe there's a little left
organ in the market and maybe there's a little love
(16:26):
for the over here. So I kind of would lean
Oregon State at three and a hook totals probably a layoff. Yeah,
it's just interesting to me if you tie a couple
of these games that we've talked about together. That's what's
so interesting about football. The injury impact. You saw it
last week, bo Nix that Oregon offense looked totally different
with his mobility limited, and it just makes me wonder
(16:49):
again going back to Michigan, if Blake Corham is limited,
you got more on J. J. McCarthy's shoulders. The ripple
effect of those injuries is just mammoth sometimes depending on
who it is. And you know, this is a this
is an Oregon State offense that just wants to grind
you down, you know. And and how is Oregon's defense
(17:13):
which is coming off a very physical game against Utah
where Utah just pounded it down their throats? You know,
do they pay get up for this game in a
big way? And you know they're gonna be up for
this game? Is I mean these games, that's the part
about this week, And I guess you know, big picture,
a really good starting point for a lot of your
handicaps this week is just to see who's on five wins,
who needs to get Bowl eligible, and what are the
(17:37):
point spreads relative to the motivational factor in a lot
of these games. And we'll touch on Auburn Alabama, I'm
sure on Saturday, but that's a great example. Like Alabamas
on you know, two losses, they're not going to the playoff.
Auburn's on five wins, but there are three touchdown dogs, So, like,
you know, do they have that fight to get up
for these games? I think this Oregon State team is
kind of in that same category. You know, been an
(17:58):
up and down year for them. They're Bowl eligible, they're
eight and three, they're kind of trending in a positive direction.
With Jonathan Smith. They've won two in a row. They've
scored thirty one plus in both games. Like, you know,
how up his organ for this game? Knowing that you know, actually,
I take that back. Organ's very up for this game.
They need to clinch a Pack twelve title spot. But
how healthy bow Nix is, I think it will be
the determining factor for me. Gonna be a tremendous weekend
(18:19):
of ball weekend plus right, they got Thursday night Egg Bowl,
We've got Friday games left and right, and then Saturday
we'll be uh, we'll be on It'll be camp Down
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. On Saturday. We'll have
Jared Smith from picks wise dot com, Rich orn Berger,
Penn State, All American, myself, Brian No. We'll get you
(18:40):
all set for all the ball this week Rivalry Week
in college football. Make sure you check us out nine
am until noon Eastern time, leading right up to kickoff.
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(19:02):
the King of sports books. All right, I want to
welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper from crack
wins dot com here to talk some NFL with us. Crack,
we're recording this on on Thursday. Man, Happy Thanksgiving to you.
Any big plans, no, just uh, just some so a
meal later on with with with some family, um and
(19:24):
the mrs and and some friends who are like family
to me that have a a nice house in town.
We're going over there and uh we'll go back east
for Christmas and we celebrate with my nieces. And it's uh,
it's it's different for me. You know, I had an
old fashioned Italian mom. That was a big deal for her,
you know, so when she was here with us on
the earth of that was a big, big meal for us,
(19:46):
a big holiday, uh, and it was special. It's just
it's tough without her here. So I all right, I'm
sorry to hear that crack. But are you ever as
a professional ambler? Are you ever attempted to give out
picks as presents like happy thanks, everybody, take the Jets
(20:06):
minus six or whatever? Have you ever done that in
your lifetime? No? I don't even like to give out
picks in general. I know on our show on Sunday,
the fans want, they want picks, they want they want sides,
they want. Um. So I always tell everyone listen, when
I give out something, it's a I'm betting a peanut
on it on a side, it's nothing big. Uh, totals
are much much more where my money and proposition bets
(20:29):
even more than that. So Buffalo, I'm sorry by'm watching
the Buffalo game here too. Um. Everyone thinks like like
this game's today Buffalo Dallas. The our eyes deceive us too,
So you have to understand, like where our eyes last week?
We've seen Dallas destroy Minnesota in Minnesota, we've seen the
(20:50):
Giants lose out right at home to Detroit, So our
eyes deceive us. I don't think there should even be
a double digit dog. Uh. This week. It's just this
season has shown that more than any uh So, if
I am forced to do anything, I'm I'm looking at
I'm looking at some of the double digit underdogs if anything,
(21:12):
you know, for a first side totals, I have of
course total action, have a ton of props going on,
but kind of stay away from the sides. It's that's
the thing that's covered the most by so many networks,
and it's it's the hardest thing to beat in sports betting.
I swear, Crack. One of the things I think about
you most is when I see the point spreads come
out for the new week and there's a double digit underdog,
(21:35):
I immediately think of you, you know, and we've got
three of them as we speak. It's on Thursday. The
Cowboys are favored by ten. You've got on Sunday the
Dolphins favored by thirteen and a half against the Texans.
And then also no Matthew Stafford, he's banged up. The
Chiefs are fifteen and a half point favorites against the Rams.
(21:57):
So I leave it to you, Crack, if you had
to make some picks, what would you do? And by
the way, favorites of ten or more they're only four
and eleven against the number this year four in a lesson. Wow,
I didn't even know the number. Wow, that's that's amazing.
There you go. I don't think Miami can be giving
anyone in the NFL thirteen and a half points. I
(22:19):
don't know. It just seems like too much for me.
But again I didn't bet on it. Don't think there
won't be a four team popping up here, just like
I don't think I won't get a ten and a
half here in town in Vegas later on such a
square town. Everyone loves betting in Dallas, one of the
America's team, and you could now I would jump on
something like that, getting the key number of ten and
(22:41):
going through it, going to going through the key number
of time at to say, getting the ten and a half,
and I may jump on, you know, getting getting fourteen
points if I can, what Houston, because you know, people
love betting the hot teams. Again, our eyes deceive us.
So um, I am really not looking at that, looking
at more totals right now. It I will take those
(23:02):
extra half of points around the key numbers. When when,
when the opportunity presents itself, there you go, there's a
game that you've got your eye on. In the late
afternoon window Chargers against Arizona, Kyler Murray says he should
be good to go. Maybe Hollywood Brown, Arizona's wide receiver,
will be on a pitch count. But if you have
Hollywood out there and DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray obviously
(23:24):
a boost for Arizona's offense. You're looking at the first
half total crack. What do you think seeing this one? Man? Yeah,
I like betting over's in first half. A lot of
times teams that are comfortably ahead will be running the
ball and trying to run the clock out in the
second half. I look, I look at the over and
this one. This one also here in town, we have
(23:45):
a couple of twenty three and a half uh in town,
but there's also UH. I'll e would see twenty four.
But really, I mean so many places mgm Wayne Westgates,
even the stations and circuits, they're all twenty three and
a half. So I look at twenty three and a
half as as going over uh in the Chargers Arizona game,
thinking that Murray will come back and and UH, you know,
(24:07):
we'll we'll get some hopefully we get some points there
on the board, and that's a good play for the
first half of It's widely available everywhere. One of the
games I've got my iron crack Bengals at the Titans,
So the Titans are two and a half point underdogs
at home. Total is forty two and a half. Any
direction you want to go in. I also think about
props because man Joe Burrow was slinging it all over
(24:31):
the place last week against the Steelers. The Titans, though, man,
they have been tough defensively, So any direction you want
to go in, whether it's the total, whether it's first half, anything,
anything stand out to you. In Bengals Tame, it opened
up one and it's up to two and a half,
even a couple of threes. Uh, it opened forty two
(24:53):
and a half and it's still forty two and a half.
So there's been no action on that on that game
at all, not from any any sharps that I know.
I know a couple of different syndicate groups. You're you're right, though,
Tennessee is uh coming off that that Green Bay in
a big green bay and and um, you know, I
see the game has some circle on it, so there
(25:15):
is maybe some injury concerned there some information Uh Lamar Chase,
well we know we know that already. We we know,
um Jamaar Chases had a hip injury. But I was
just wondering what that was. But it's still circled there.
I have no real no, no real info on on
that game as of right now. Um, I look towards
(25:35):
because another game which is in red, so I must
we'll talk about it now. The only other game on
the board and red is Chicago Jets. We know Mike
White is coming in replacing Wilson, but we don't know
the questionable shoulder injury on on on field, So that
means everything to me. Even though some people are down
on fields passing in the pocket and he waits too long,
(25:56):
you know this, this guy gets the hundred yards of
game rushing the ball. So, um, I don't know. This
game went from four and a half on the announced
they the quarterback change up the six six and a
half on the board here. Wow, that seems like a
lot of points the Jets are given there. Um I'm
tempted to even go on a side there with Chicago,
(26:18):
but I guess you have to wait more towards the
announcement about Fields. Isn't that crazy crack with just the
questions at quarterback where that's the perfect example. You've got
Mike White, he'll be starting in place of Zach Wilson.
You've got Justin Fields who's got this separated left shoulder.
He said that he wouldn't be able to play yesterday
as if Wednesday, but might be able to give it
(26:39):
a go on Sunday. That's a lot of uncertainty at
the quarterback positions plural, you know. And then you also
think around the league some of the things that have
happened where Sam Donald will be starting. You've got Kyle
Allen who will be starting for the Houston Texans as
Davis Mills gets benched. When you've got that much uncertainty
at quarterback, do just immediately start thinking prop bets instead
(27:02):
of sides there? Oh yeah, oh yeah, you do you know,
when you have all this uncertainty at quarterback, um, you
really want to stay away from the game unless you
know that information. You know, I have a couple of
different insiders that uh, you know, alerts on my phone
when as soon as I get information on stuff, So
I try to beat the bookmakers to that information because
(27:24):
they also have the same insiders on their phone. I
would stay away from anything in the game unless you know,
we'll stay away from a lot. I'm looking for every
For every NFL side I bet, which is maybe one
door in the week or two, I probably bet thirty props. Literally,
I'll have fifty props on a on a on a Sunday. Uh.
(27:47):
Sometimes I'm going if especially if I'm back East where
I believe it or not, even though I live in Vegas,
you would think it's a sports betting capital or absolutely
not where the all the different apps in the new
jurisdictional sports books have come in. That's where the sports
betting capitals of the world are in New Jersey, New York,
where I can bet on my apps and get a
lot of bets. And when I'm back there, I'll have
(28:07):
fifty props on a Sunday literally, uh, compared to the
you know, ten or twenty i'll have here on a Sunday.
So um. Anyway, yeah, looking into some things, already betting
some props and today, like today, I only got a
couple of props on these games, didn't really bet too many,
but on Thursday's game. But looking more towards the weekend,
(28:27):
and we'll see what happens every by Sunday. By the
time we're on air, I'm sure I'll have some juicy
information for all the listeners. Definitely looking forward to that
quick question before one more game here. If you ever
goofed crack where you're like, you you bet the oversay
like Josh Allen's passing yardage, and then you also have
a ticket for the under and you're like, wait a minute,
(28:48):
it's the same number and I bet both sides. Have
you ever made a mistake betting that many? Yeah? Oh yeah,
you know I'm doing his thirty years. I'm doing this
professionally in thirty years. There are the mistakes that you
can make. How about this, haven't when you take a
lead on the game, take a lead on the game,
for especially the numbers I'm betting, and then forget to
get off. So I'll have five or ten thousand on
a game. Well, I took a lead knowing you know
(29:10):
I was. I was betting, you know, pick minus thirty
when I knew it when it was going to three,
or even laying three when I know it's going to
four and a half, and I forget to get off
some of it that I've done that many times, and
just it seems like it never works out for you too,
whatever you have a bet you're trying to get off,
or whenever you bet the wrong way on something. And
sure if, especially the years before the mobile apps came out,
(29:31):
when you're getting physical tickets run under the counter, sure
you're not. You know it's it's they're they're humans. They
make mistakes, so they're put punching tickets the wrong way.
It's up to you as the better to check the
right way. I absolutely have made mistakes also by trying
to go too fast and betting, betting the wrong way,
and oh god, without a doubt it happens. Thank god,
it doesn't happen too often. I want to get your
(29:54):
thoughts on the Packers and Eagles Sunday night game. What
the line said is to you, because I think that's interesting.
Right now, the Eagles at home are favored by six
and a half. Now, they were favored by six and
a half on the road against the Colts last week,
and now they're at home and they're favored by the
same number six and a half against the Packers. Team
(30:14):
the news this week, Aaron Rodgers has played with a
broken thumb since Week five, and they've been a hot mess.
Green Bay is brutal. They've lost a bunch of games
here as of late. I don't need to sell you
on how bad they are. So what the line says
to you? Is this just a matchup thing where Green
Bay they run the ball effectively the Eagles haven't done
(30:35):
a great job against the run. Is it just this
particular matchup or do you think there's some skepticism from
Vegas about the Eagles in general here? Well, you know
the Eagles are they proved to be human. I mean
they had their first loss and then all of a sudden, uh,
they almost lost first Indianapolis. And now the bookmaker knows
(30:55):
it because this look aheadline just a couple of weeks
ago was eight and a half. So at six and
a half now through the key number of seven, Um,
we we all know green Bay is there a garbage team?
I mean they had a big chance to not be
the garbage team because after they beat Dallas that was
like their super Bowl and they came back in laden egg. So, um,
(31:16):
this line is probably exactly where it should be. I
know a lot of the fans will be on the
In general, people say, oh my god, Eagles under under
a under a touchdown. Oh my god, this is uh
this this is this is my this is a great opportunity.
Well it's it might not be because you know, football
is funny. Football is funny. Like I said, Packers beat
(31:38):
Dallas UM by three. They then they go into they go,
they go home and lose to the Titans. As a
pretty big favorite, this team is just in shambles. But
then again, uh, Philadelphia has proven to that they're human
and anything can happen here. All I'm saying is I'll
probably I'll stay away from this game. But uh and
(31:59):
if i'm four us to take a side, believe it
or not, because it's such a funny line. Yeah, I
would probably take green Bay. I'd probably take Green Bay
in the game. So yeah, hey, um that might be
the right side. Yeah. I definitely hear what you're saying there. Yeah,
that is so true. Football is scoofy, and that's partly
(32:19):
why we love it. And that's partly why it drives
us crazy when we're gambling on it. It's just scoofy. Man,
It's hard to figure out. Hey, be sure to check
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(32:41):
Bill Krackenburger as sharp as it is. Sports handicapper from
crack winds dot com. Jeff Schwartz will be with us.
Eight year NFL veteran. He does an awesome job as well.
I'm Brian, though, I'll be along for the ride as well.
Ten am until one pm Eastern Time on Fox Sports Radio.
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(00:23):
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Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown
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(00:46):
the official podcast. Over here, we'll have Jared Smith, Puckins
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gyp app. We welcome in Jared Smith here. We are
(01:07):
recording this on Thursday, on Thanksgiving, No days off, baby,
Happy Thanksgivings you jars shaded Brian, thankful for this lovely
vehicle that we have every week. Um and it's been
a it's been a fun season. We're talking before it
came on, like this is it, like this is the
last week of the regular season, like the swan song
(01:29):
of what's been a journey for us with this new show,
and it's it's been a blast. So we appreciate all
you guys listening and consuming the content, like you're going
to consume your turkeys at some point today, that's right.
And I don't want any trash talking about turkey from
anyone on this day. You know, I'm not just talking
about you and me, Jared, I'm talking about this just
in general. I don't want to turkey. I could see
(01:52):
some takes. This is about the time of year where
they put out the power rankings of Thanksgiving food. I've
seen turkey lower on the list, but like, is it
completely off the list? Some people have it completely off
the list? They're crazy. I say, those people haven't had
from turkey. That's it. They haven't had good turkey. Someone
prepared it, didn't know what they were doing, and now
they hate turkey. It's it's it's unfair, it's it's sad, right, yeah, really,
(02:13):
but I got something to brighten your mood. The slate
of Saturday college football over here about this number three Michigan,
number two Ohio State to get things going on Big
Fox twelve noon Eastern time. To me, it's all about
Blake Corehum. Is he healthy? Can he go? Is he
a fraction of himself? Because if he isn't, the Blake
(02:33):
Corehum stud that we've seen throughout this season is gonna
be way worse than what happened last week against Illinois,
where Michigan had to scratch out a win. This is
gonna be boat Race City if Blake can't go. I
think yeah, And I think there's some interesting, you know,
depth issues for both teams. The first part about this
game that I looked at, you know, we saw some
(02:55):
weather in Columbus. Well that's kind of clearing up now,
and I think that obviously favors Ohio State. Of course,
you want to make sure you check the weather forecast
before you play some big wager on this game. And
you know, when we get closer to Saturday, we'll know
a little more. But if it's clear, and you know,
you keep the rain in the wind away from Columbus
for at least, you know, the morning afternoon time. I
(03:15):
think that obviously favors the Buckeys, who want to throw
the ball more down the field. It's kind of interesting
because you have this, you have both teams that I
think are very good at their top tier, but both teams,
like I said, have had their depth tested by injuries.
And with Michigan, you saw the drop off last week
against Illinois when Koram left the game. It just there
was nothing there offensively, and J. J. McCarthy's really struggled
(03:39):
pushing it down the field. You know, he had a
forty eight percent complice percentage against Rutgers. He had his
worst QBR this season last weekgainst Illinois, and you saw
that drop off. Meanwhile, for Ohio State down to their
third string running back to last week, Henderson was out,
mind Williams is out and then all of a sudden,
Dallin Hayte and a freshman comes in who is a
five star kid twenty having a buck forty six three
(04:01):
tuddies against Maryland. So and I think that's kind of
a good barometer of where these programs are. Michigan is
good at the top. I don't think they're as deep
as Ohio State. Like I think Ohio State goes one
layer deeper with like the studs that they can bring
off the bench at these skill positions than Michigan does.
And again, if Michigan can't push the ball down the field,
I don't know where they get offense in this game.
(04:22):
And I think that's why he saw this total drop
a little bit. And I'll be honest, I really like
the buck eyes in this spot. And you know, maybe
we get some Michigan money over the weekend that gets
this the seven, But even at seven and a half,
I I think it's a play on Ohio State. For me.
By the way, what's your gut feeling? And I know
this is tough, man, very tough, but in the world
of gambling, you need to have a gut feeling on
what you think Michigan is gonna get from Blake Coreum.
(04:44):
It's the complete X factor and he's normally we saved
the X factor for the fringe player, but the X
factor is his injury. We know he's a stud, but
how effective do you think he's gonna be. It's impossible
to know. I mean I saw a friend who's a
Michigan fan on Twitter the other day say he wouldn't
you know you saw him at the you know, the
(05:05):
turkey donation thing, given you know, holding all these turkeys,
and my friend Tweeter like, yeah, I don't think they
would have had him holding twenty pound turkeys walking around
in the cold if he wasn't you know, at least
trending in a positive direction. So my guess is he
plays and he's less than But again, you saw the
drop off there, and I think that's really the key.
(05:27):
And you go back to last year's game. It was
the running game that sealed it. Now that was in
snowy conditions in Ann Harbor. They had Hassan Haskins, they
had a much better offensive line, and they don't have
any of those things this year. So I I'm concerned
that you're not just gonna get this mission. You know,
people watched last year's game and they see the rankings
and they're like, wait a minute, you know, how State
(05:48):
Michigan or two three, how can we you know, get
a seven and a half points. But so I I
concerned with the game plan from Michigan because if they
get into a negative game script and Ohio State starts
fast even if it's seven four nothing, and you know,
let's say mid second quarter. J J. McCarthy turns into
a passer, and I just don't believe that they can
be that explosive. They've been banged up at receiver all year.
(06:08):
Ronnie Bell has been very inconsistent, and again the numbers
from McCarthy have been poor, I think mediocre at best.
So I'm concerned if this is you know, tan fourteen
nothing at half or mid second quarter, what are we
going to see for Michigan's offense and Ohio State as
long as they're relatively healthy. I I think C. J.
Stroud just is a level above anyone that you know
(06:29):
Michigan can bring to the table offensively in this game.
I'll just say last thing on this game for for
right now is uh I think football. I love it, man,
but it is just cruel. This should be Blake Coreum's
spot to have a good game. I don't know if
it's gonna be Michigan spot even with him fully healthy
for them to win the game, but it should be
the spot where he has a special game. He's been
(06:52):
a monster all season long and now he's dinged up.
I just think this should be his what Tim Biakapatua
time like, right this is the time for him to
have the exclamation point on what has been a very
special season. And man, I just don't know if we're
gonna see that with him being a little bit limited.
We'll see how it plays out. Let's shift it to
(07:13):
this Saturday night. Notre Dame taken on USC. USC up
to six in the College Football Playoff rankings. They got
leapfrogged by L s U. Pretty interesting, but USC. They
survived last week against u C l A unbelievable where
they U C. L A had what four turnovers like
(07:35):
US had four takeaways and they're scratching out a win
that they give up forty five points that they got
the w they got it done. But defense optional in
this one. I think you and I could move the
ball against the Trojan, so I expect Notre Dame to
be able to do it. And USC's offense is just
absolutely lethal. The total we have at sixty four and
(07:55):
a half at bet MGM, it should be another track
made I'm envisioning here. Yeah, I mean the game plan
for sure for the Irish is just to be physical,
right like like like that's where they have an edge
here top thirty and schedule adjusted rushing success or at
USC's defense outside the top one and basically every rushing
defensive metric that's ever been invented by the nerds. So
(08:18):
it's just there's not a lot of starch upfront for
this Trojans defense, and the Notre Dame offense has proven
it in big games that they can line up and
pound it right down your throat. Now, the one negative here,
I think, if I'm Lincoln Riley and I win the toss,
I want the ball. I want to score first. I
(08:39):
want to put Drew Pine in a negative game script,
and then I want to let the chips fall as
they may. That's how Notre Dame. You know, if you
want to ask me the path to USC covering here
with a leaky defense against the physical offense, it's getting
Drew Pine into a fourteen nothing hole early or even
seven nothing, frankly, like, just put the pressure on Notre
(08:59):
Dame to get out of what they want to do,
which is absolutely run the ball right down the Trojans throats,
create play action on later downs. The only way you
can do that is if you get into third and manageable.
So to me, it's all about who gets the ball first,
who gets off to the good start. If it's USC
and it's a two score lead, that's where Notre Dame
(09:20):
really is going to struggle here. If Notre Dame has
the tempo and they're on the front foot, this is
a scary spot for USC. I see a lot of
variants here, I do, And I think this is a
game that I won't be betting UM because I can
see this game vastly swinging two wildly different ways, and
it's really about who gets off to the better start. Yeah,
(09:41):
it's really interesting. How look, man, this is I guess
you would say it's moving day. It's it's beyond moving
day when it comes to the college football playoff rankings.
Right where USC, it's right there for him. If you
think about the loser of Ohio State Michigan, I mean,
they're they're in a world of hurt whoever loses that
game in terms of getting into the playoff. So if
(10:03):
USC wins out US, the USC should be in a
pretty favorable spot. Thanks would have to get pretty goofy
for them to not get into the playoff. So it
starts with the win against Notre Dame and we'll see
where it goes from there. But if you win two
straight games, USC against Notre Dame and the PAC twelfth
Championship game, they should be sitting pretty well. It just
(10:25):
depends on what happens around them. If that's the case, Yeah,
you can't leave him out if that's the case. I
mean that, Like, and again, I had this discussion with
and this is a great discussion. I'm sure our producer
Ryan's listening to this and he'll maybe add this into
the rundown for this week. But the comparison between TCU
as an undefeated Power five champion and USC as a
(10:49):
one lost Power five champion, I'll be honest USC, like, like,
if all things being equal, and there's one spot left,
and those are the two teams that I can choose
from now, I don't know what universe that actually will
take transpiring because most of the universe is USC and
tc You both could get spots and and this conversation
(11:09):
is avoided, But let's just live in a vacuum for
a minute and say you have one spot left and
it's USC Pack twelve champion, one loss, TCU undefeated Power five.
I would pick USC because isn't the goal to get
the best teams? And like, when I look at TCU,
and I look at USC, and I stack them up
(11:30):
and I take away the win loss record, and I
just look at star power metrics, you know, how your
how your offense operates, what they look like, who you've beaten.
I think USC is better, but I've got controlled for
that take. So I I take your your criticism or
your pushback, um, you know, seriously, because I don't know
(11:51):
if I'm wrong here. Yeah, it's if TCU wins out
there in no questions. Yeah they agree, But which team
would you rather see played archer Brian. Would you rather
see Georgia played TCU or would you rather see Georgie's
defense go up against Caleb Williams and this USC offer? Well,
I'm with you on that, but that's not a reason
to vote in USC, you know. Otherwise, like why are
(12:13):
we even bothering with playing these games if we're just
gonna go with the biggest brand name that's in the
vicinity of that. It's not like USC is a three
lost team. There. They lost by one point to arguably
the next best team in the Pack twelve, and the
PAC twelve far and away is the better conference this year,
and they have played far and away the tougher schedule,
so they have how do you value that one loss
(12:33):
compared to the undefeated considering the competition that they've played. Yeah,
I just you know as well as I do. You
can make all these points, and that's great, But you
know as well as I do. USC is gonna be
left out in the cold if it comes down to
undefeated TCU versus USC. It's just the way it's gonna probably, right,
But I would like to see You're right. This is
(12:54):
one of those spots where it's who I want, not
who I think, right, Like, I've seen this story before.
We've seen Washington and the you know, the really middling
Power five champions with no explosion on offense and really
no top to your talent go up against the Alabamas
and the Clemsons when they were number one, And it's
(13:15):
been ugly in those semifinals, very ugly. And I'm trying
to think to myself, like, what what's the what's the
best game? Like? Who were the best teams? Really? Like
how do you judge that? And we see this in
the college basketball tournament all the time. You know, the
the a c C team with twelve losses for the
at large spot against the you know, mid major that's
(13:36):
twenties seven and three. You know, like it's like, how
do you judge those teams and who they are? It's tough.
And listen, while we're living in the four team playoff world,
you're gonna have in some years a really strong number
five team that gets less. Like that's just the way
it is. One more real quick here, Jared, We've got
(13:57):
Oregon at Oregon State the art formerly known as the
Civil War. I don't know what we're calling this thing now,
but it's a good matchup. And look, Ben, Oregon State
has been tough this year. Oregon with a gritty, very
un characteristic of the Pack twelve type win last week
twenty to seventeen against Utah, but cam Rising just a
(14:18):
lot of mistakes, Gritty bow Knicks. We talked about home
bow Nicks. That was gritty bow Knicks who was completely
limited yet did enough to get Oregon in position to
win the game. That's exactly what they did. Oregon on
the outside of the playoff chase, looking in as the
Pack twelve cannibalized itself yet again, excluding USC that's still alive.
(14:38):
But how about this one Oregon Oregon State a lot
of emotion in Corvallis when it comes to this game.
For sure. Yeah, we talked about core um from Michigan. Obviously,
bow Nick's health here dictates so much with game plan
and scheme. And you saw it last week. You saw
a game plan last week for Oregon that was not
(14:59):
desig line for bow Knicks. He was in the shotgun
a ton. It looked like there were a lot of
zone reads that were called that weren't executed, and that's
because they wanted thy Thompson and they thought ty Thompson
was gonna be playing quarterback for Organ who was as
as mobile as bow Knicks is. Like that's what thy
Thompson does, Like he is a running quarterback whereas bow Knicks,
I would call him more dual threat. Then all of
a sudden, bow Knicks guts it out plays the game.
(15:21):
But most of the packages were designed for Thompson, So
Utah just stacked the box and made things very difficult
for an Organ offense that was about below their rushing
success rate on season average. So different vibe this week.
I'm sure you know Kenny Dillingham will draw something up
that's a little more bone Knicks friendly pro bow probably
(15:43):
see a lot more under center runs, probably see a
lot more play action off of it, and you know,
limited with the bootlegs and and and the rollouts and
this sort of Listen, this organ State defense played really
well this year. That's absolutely the strength of this team.
Jonathan Smith is kind of revitalized this defense. It's offensively
that the bors are just so limited. Benda Branson's like,
if you looked up uh, you know, situational game manager
(16:06):
in the dictionary, they'd have a picture of his face. Um,
And it's just I don't know what you're gonna see
from Oregon State offensively here, but total kind of hovering
in that, you know, mid fifties range, which for Organs
pretty low, and we're seeing a little movement now to
three and a half, so maybe there's a little left
organ in the market and maybe there's a little love
(16:26):
for the over here. So I kind of would lean
Oregon State at three and a hook totals probably a layoff. Yeah,
it's just interesting to me if you tie a couple
of these games that we've talked about together. That's what's
so interesting about football. The injury impact. You saw it
last week, bo Nix that Oregon offense looked totally different
with his mobility limited, and it just makes me wonder
(16:49):
again going back to Michigan, if Blake Corham is limited,
you got more on J. J. McCarthy's shoulders. The ripple
effect of those injuries is just mammoth sometimes depending on
who it is. And you know, this is a this
is an Oregon State offense that just wants to grind
you down, you know. And and how is Oregon's defense
(17:13):
which is coming off a very physical game against Utah
where Utah just pounded it down their throats? You know,
do they pay get up for this game in a
big way? And you know they're gonna be up for
this game? Is I mean these games, that's the part
about this week, And I guess you know, big picture,
a really good starting point for a lot of your
handicaps this week is just to see who's on five wins,
who needs to get Bowl eligible, and what are the
(17:37):
point spreads relative to the motivational factor in a lot
of these games. And we'll touch on Auburn Alabama, I'm
sure on Saturday, but that's a great example. Like Alabamas
on you know, two losses, they're not going to the playoff.
Auburn's on five wins, but there are three touchdown dogs, So, like,
you know, do they have that fight to get up
for these games? I think this Oregon State team is
kind of in that same category. You know, been an
(17:58):
up and down year for them. They're Bowl eligible, they're
eight and three, they're kind of trending in a positive direction.
With Jonathan Smith. They've won two in a row. They've
scored thirty one plus in both games. Like, you know,
how up his organ for this game? Knowing that you know, actually,
I take that back. Organ's very up for this game.
They need to clinch a Pack twelve title spot. But
how healthy bow Nix is, I think it will be
the determining factor for me. Gonna be a tremendous weekend
(18:19):
of ball weekend plus right, they got Thursday night Egg Bowl,
We've got Friday games left and right, and then Saturday
we'll be uh, we'll be on It'll be camp Down
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. On Saturday. We'll have
Jared Smith from picks wise dot com, Rich orn Berger,
Penn State, All American, myself, Brian No. We'll get you
(18:40):
all set for all the ball this week Rivalry Week
in college football. Make sure you check us out nine
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(19:02):
the King of sports books. All right, I want to
welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper from crack
wins dot com here to talk some NFL with us. Crack,
we're recording this on on Thursday. Man, Happy Thanksgiving to you.
Any big plans, no, just uh, just some so a
meal later on with with with some family, um and
(19:24):
the mrs and and some friends who are like family
to me that have a a nice house in town.
We're going over there and uh we'll go back east
for Christmas and we celebrate with my nieces. And it's uh,
it's it's different for me. You know, I had an
old fashioned Italian mom. That was a big deal for her,
you know, so when she was here with us on
the earth of that was a big, big meal for us,
(19:46):
a big holiday, uh, and it was special. It's just
it's tough without her here. So I all right, I'm
sorry to hear that crack. But are you ever as
a professional ambler? Are you ever attempted to give out
picks as presents like happy thanks, everybody, take the Jets
(20:06):
minus six or whatever? Have you ever done that in
your lifetime? No? I don't even like to give out
picks in general. I know on our show on Sunday,
the fans want, they want picks, they want they want sides,
they want. Um. So I always tell everyone listen, when
I give out something, it's a I'm betting a peanut
on it on a side, it's nothing big. Uh, totals
are much much more where my money and proposition bets
(20:29):
even more than that. So Buffalo, I'm sorry by'm watching
the Buffalo game here too. Um. Everyone thinks like like
this game's today Buffalo Dallas. The our eyes deceive us too,
So you have to understand, like where our eyes last week?
We've seen Dallas destroy Minnesota in Minnesota, we've seen the
(20:50):
Giants lose out right at home to Detroit, So our
eyes deceive us. I don't think there should even be
a double digit dog. Uh. This week. It's just this
season has shown that more than any uh So, if
I am forced to do anything, I'm I'm looking at
I'm looking at some of the double digit underdogs if anything,
(21:12):
you know, for a first side totals, I have of
course total action, have a ton of props going on,
but kind of stay away from the sides. It's that's
the thing that's covered the most by so many networks,
and it's it's the hardest thing to beat in sports betting.
I swear, Crack. One of the things I think about
you most is when I see the point spreads come
out for the new week and there's a double digit underdog,
(21:35):
I immediately think of you, you know, and we've got
three of them as we speak. It's on Thursday. The
Cowboys are favored by ten. You've got on Sunday the
Dolphins favored by thirteen and a half against the Texans.
And then also no Matthew Stafford, he's banged up. The
Chiefs are fifteen and a half point favorites against the Rams.
(21:57):
So I leave it to you, Crack, if you had
to make some picks, what would you do? And by
the way, favorites of ten or more they're only four
and eleven against the number this year four in a lesson. Wow,
I didn't even know the number. Wow, that's that's amazing.
There you go. I don't think Miami can be giving
anyone in the NFL thirteen and a half points. I
(22:19):
don't know. It just seems like too much for me.
But again I didn't bet on it. Don't think there
won't be a four team popping up here, just like
I don't think I won't get a ten and a
half here in town in Vegas later on such a
square town. Everyone loves betting in Dallas, one of the
America's team, and you could now I would jump on
something like that, getting the key number of ten and
(22:41):
going through it, going to going through the key number
of time at to say, getting the ten and a half,
and I may jump on, you know, getting getting fourteen
points if I can, what Houston, because you know, people
love betting the hot teams. Again, our eyes deceive us.
So um, I am really not looking at that, looking
at more totals right now. It I will take those
(23:02):
extra half of points around the key numbers. When when,
when the opportunity presents itself, there you go, there's a
game that you've got your eye on. In the late
afternoon window Chargers against Arizona, Kyler Murray says he should
be good to go. Maybe Hollywood Brown, Arizona's wide receiver,
will be on a pitch count. But if you have
Hollywood out there and DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray obviously
(23:24):
a boost for Arizona's offense. You're looking at the first
half total crack. What do you think seeing this one? Man? Yeah,
I like betting over's in first half. A lot of
times teams that are comfortably ahead will be running the
ball and trying to run the clock out in the
second half. I look, I look at the over and
this one. This one also here in town, we have
(23:45):
a couple of twenty three and a half uh in town,
but there's also UH. I'll e would see twenty four.
But really, I mean so many places mgm Wayne Westgates,
even the stations and circuits, they're all twenty three and
a half. So I look at twenty three and a
half as as going over uh in the Chargers Arizona game,
thinking that Murray will come back and and UH, you know,
(24:07):
we'll we'll get some hopefully we get some points there
on the board, and that's a good play for the
first half of It's widely available everywhere. One of the
games I've got my iron crack Bengals at the Titans,
So the Titans are two and a half point underdogs
at home. Total is forty two and a half. Any
direction you want to go in. I also think about
props because man Joe Burrow was slinging it all over
(24:31):
the place last week against the Steelers. The Titans, though, man,
they have been tough defensively, So any direction you want
to go in, whether it's the total, whether it's first half, anything,
anything stand out to you. In Bengals Tame, it opened
up one and it's up to two and a half,
even a couple of threes. Uh, it opened forty two
(24:53):
and a half and it's still forty two and a half.
So there's been no action on that on that game
at all, not from any any sharps that I know.
I know a couple of different syndicate groups. You're you're right, though,
Tennessee is uh coming off that that Green Bay in
a big green bay and and um, you know, I
see the game has some circle on it, so there
(25:15):
is maybe some injury concerned there some information Uh Lamar Chase,
well we know we know that already. We we know,
um Jamaar Chases had a hip injury. But I was
just wondering what that was. But it's still circled there.
I have no real no, no real info on on
that game as of right now. Um, I look towards
(25:35):
because another game which is in red, so I must
we'll talk about it now. The only other game on
the board and red is Chicago Jets. We know Mike
White is coming in replacing Wilson, but we don't know
the questionable shoulder injury on on on field, So that
means everything to me. Even though some people are down
on fields passing in the pocket and he waits too long,
(25:56):
you know this, this guy gets the hundred yards of
game rushing the ball. So, um, I don't know. This
game went from four and a half on the announced
they the quarterback change up the six six and a
half on the board here. Wow, that seems like a
lot of points the Jets are given there. Um I'm
tempted to even go on a side there with Chicago,
(26:18):
but I guess you have to wait more towards the
announcement about Fields. Isn't that crazy crack with just the
questions at quarterback where that's the perfect example. You've got
Mike White, he'll be starting in place of Zach Wilson.
You've got Justin Fields who's got this separated left shoulder.
He said that he wouldn't be able to play yesterday
as if Wednesday, but might be able to give it
(26:39):
a go on Sunday. That's a lot of uncertainty at
the quarterback positions plural, you know. And then you also
think around the league some of the things that have
happened where Sam Donald will be starting. You've got Kyle
Allen who will be starting for the Houston Texans as
Davis Mills gets benched. When you've got that much uncertainty
at quarterback, do just immediately start thinking prop bets instead
(27:02):
of sides there? Oh yeah, oh yeah, you do you know,
when you have all this uncertainty at quarterback, um, you
really want to stay away from the game unless you
know that information. You know, I have a couple of
different insiders that uh, you know, alerts on my phone
when as soon as I get information on stuff, So
I try to beat the bookmakers to that information because
(27:24):
they also have the same insiders on their phone. I
would stay away from anything in the game unless you know,
we'll stay away from a lot. I'm looking for every
For every NFL side I bet, which is maybe one
door in the week or two, I probably bet thirty props. Literally,
I'll have fifty props on a on a on a Sunday. Uh.
(27:47):
Sometimes I'm going if especially if I'm back East where
I believe it or not, even though I live in Vegas,
you would think it's a sports betting capital or absolutely
not where the all the different apps in the new
jurisdictional sports books have come in. That's where the sports
betting capitals of the world are in New Jersey, New York,
where I can bet on my apps and get a
lot of bets. And when I'm back there, I'll have
(28:07):
fifty props on a Sunday literally, uh, compared to the
you know, ten or twenty i'll have here on a Sunday.
So um. Anyway, yeah, looking into some things, already betting
some props and today, like today, I only got a
couple of props on these games, didn't really bet too many,
but on Thursday's game. But looking more towards the weekend,
(28:27):
and we'll see what happens every by Sunday. By the
time we're on air, I'm sure I'll have some juicy
information for all the listeners. Definitely looking forward to that
quick question before one more game here. If you ever
goofed crack where you're like, you you bet the oversay
like Josh Allen's passing yardage, and then you also have
a ticket for the under and you're like, wait a minute,
(28:48):
it's the same number and I bet both sides. Have
you ever made a mistake betting that many? Yeah? Oh yeah,
you know I'm doing his thirty years. I'm doing this
professionally in thirty years. There are the mistakes that you
can make. How about this, haven't when you take a
lead on the game, take a lead on the game,
for especially the numbers I'm betting, and then forget to
get off. So I'll have five or ten thousand on
a game. Well, I took a lead knowing you know
(29:10):
I was. I was betting, you know, pick minus thirty
when I knew it when it was going to three,
or even laying three when I know it's going to
four and a half, and I forget to get off
some of it that I've done that many times, and
just it seems like it never works out for you too,
whatever you have a bet you're trying to get off,
or whenever you bet the wrong way on something. And
sure if, especially the years before the mobile apps came out,
(29:31):
when you're getting physical tickets run under the counter, sure
you're not. You know it's it's they're they're humans. They
make mistakes, so they're put punching tickets the wrong way.
It's up to you as the better to check the
right way. I absolutely have made mistakes also by trying
to go too fast and betting, betting the wrong way,
and oh god, without a doubt it happens. Thank god,
it doesn't happen too often. I want to get your
(29:54):
thoughts on the Packers and Eagles Sunday night game. What
the line said is to you, because I think that's interesting.
Right now, the Eagles at home are favored by six
and a half. Now, they were favored by six and
a half on the road against the Colts last week,
and now they're at home and they're favored by the
same number six and a half against the Packers. Team
(30:14):
the news this week, Aaron Rodgers has played with a
broken thumb since Week five, and they've been a hot mess.
Green Bay is brutal. They've lost a bunch of games
here as of late. I don't need to sell you
on how bad they are. So what the line says
to you? Is this just a matchup thing where Green
Bay they run the ball effectively the Eagles haven't done
(30:35):
a great job against the run. Is it just this
particular matchup or do you think there's some skepticism from
Vegas about the Eagles in general here? Well, you know
the Eagles are they proved to be human. I mean
they had their first loss and then all of a sudden, uh,
they almost lost first Indianapolis. And now the bookmaker knows
(30:55):
it because this look aheadline just a couple of weeks
ago was eight and a half. So at six and
a half now through the key number of seven, Um,
we we all know green Bay is there a garbage team?
I mean they had a big chance to not be
the garbage team because after they beat Dallas that was
like their super Bowl and they came back in laden egg. So, um,
(31:16):
this line is probably exactly where it should be. I
know a lot of the fans will be on the
In general, people say, oh my god, Eagles under under
a under a touchdown. Oh my god, this is uh
this this is this is my this is a great opportunity.
Well it's it might not be because you know, football
is funny. Football is funny. Like I said, Packers beat
(31:38):
Dallas UM by three. They then they go into they go,
they go home and lose to the Titans. As a
pretty big favorite, this team is just in shambles. But
then again, uh, Philadelphia has proven to that they're human
and anything can happen here. All I'm saying is I'll
probably I'll stay away from this game. But uh and
(31:59):
if i'm four us to take a side, believe it
or not, because it's such a funny line. Yeah, I
would probably take green Bay. I'd probably take Green Bay
in the game. So yeah, hey, um that might be
the right side. Yeah. I definitely hear what you're saying there. Yeah,
that is so true. Football is scoofy, and that's partly
(32:19):
why we love it. And that's partly why it drives
us crazy when we're gambling on it. It's just scoofy. Man,
It's hard to figure out. Hey, be sure to check
out the new looking features in the bed MGM app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love,
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the
cash out feature. New users can use the code countdown
for a special offer. All right check us out on Sunday.
(32:41):
Bill Krackenburger as sharp as it is. Sports handicapper from
crack winds dot com. Jeff Schwartz will be with us.
Eight year NFL veteran. He does an awesome job as well.
I'm Brian, though, I'll be along for the ride as well.
Ten am until one pm Eastern Time on Fox Sports Radio.
Get you all set for everything you need to be
aware of in Week twelve.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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