December 22, 2022 • 35 mins
Brian Noe previews the weekend in football with the sharpest minds in betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins to handicap some of the biggest bowl games for the next week and give his NFL bets that he is prioritizing. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger breaks down what to expect from some major NFL matchups in harsh conditions for Week 16!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
the largest tailgate party in the nation. Let's go Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
King of sports book. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win. Three is
(00:23):
the in game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by Bett mg app. Nah, We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no No Welcome in
the Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM podcast. We'll
(00:45):
have here At Smith from pickwise dot com. How It's
ball you Little NFL, as well also Bill Krackenburger from
krakwins dot com sports handy Kapper. He'll be talking to
some NFL ball new users. Download the bet MGM app
today and use code countdown for us. I shall offer
that's code countdown in the bet MGM app. I'm Brian Note.
Let's welcome in Jared Smith here, and let's whet our
(01:09):
appetites here with some college football to start off here.
We've got Air Force and Baylor on Thursday evening the
Armed Forces Bowl there is major movement on Air Force
here as the points read right now, you've got Baylor
uh minus three and a half at bet MGM. Baylor
is FAVOREDE. But that line has moved steadily throughout the week.
(01:30):
Some love for the Air Force Falcons over here. Jared Smith,
where do you lie on this one? Yes? So it
went from seven to now three and a half. We're
taking this on a Thursday. If if if you catch
this before Thursday and it gets down to three or
Thursday night, I should say, and it gets down to three,
I mean ste been so I don't think it'll get
to three. I think the reason for the move it's
(01:54):
fruit of bull season. I've talked about this like a
jillion times. Every you know person that covers the gambling
space in ledge football has talked about this. How motivated
is bailor for a bowl game against air Force? A
military ball game against air Force when last year they
were playing in the Sugar Bowl and they had very
high expectations for this season. I don't know the answer
to that question. I think the motivation factor it's really
(02:16):
really hard to get in. We can get like hints
and context clues sometimes and maybe it's the the opt outs,
or it's the coaching changes that kind of give you
a glimpse behind the curtain. But I really you really
don't know how up for this game Bailor is because
we can't get inside the minds of every single one
of the players. I will say this, if Baylor is
up for this game, they have a massive edge in
(02:37):
the trenches and I expect them to dominate if they care. Now,
the weather will play a factor here brutally cold in
Fort Worth, Texas today, wind chills and the teens and
I don't really think that that helps Bailor because they
do like to throw it a little bit. But they're
also a very good rushing offense. They've got a freshman
running back Um who had a really good season, but
he kind of tailed off down the stretch. He's had
(02:58):
a month off David and a defensive mind fired his
defensive coordinator, so he's had a few weeks I think
to kind of figure things out and prepare for this
triple option. I think he's one of the most gifted
minds defensive minds in football, So if he is again
up for this game, as the rest of Baylor, I
do think the Bears at three and a half. You're
getting kind of a bylow spot for them, but obviously
(03:19):
low hanging fruit. How can you fade a military team? Uh?
In a military bowl? And and that's why I think
we're seeing a lot of love for air Force here.
Nothing worse than betting on a team. And you learn
very quickly in the bowl season like they just don't
care about this game. You're like, oh no, I'm on
the team that doesn't care at all. It's a lonely
(03:39):
place to be. Let's shift to the Gasparilla Bowl. Huh.
Let's look at a Friday. We've got wake Forest at Missouri,
and wake Forest is favored by two points in this one.
What do you think about the slow mesh and Sam
Hartman going up against a Tiger's defense that, Hey, they
had a couple of games here. They hung with Georgia.
They gave Georgia everything they could handle. What do you
(04:00):
see in wake v. Missouri? Yeah, a lot of opt
outs from a Zoo, including their defensive coordinator who opted
out to a new job at U n LV, some
defensive starters, the leading wide receiver, the left tackle. But
despite all of that, we still saw Missouri go through
the key number of three and and it reached one,
and now we're seeing some buyback on Wake Forest. It's
(04:22):
really about Sam Hartman here, and you're right, the slow
mesh offense which was kind of slow and not as
meshy as as what we've seen in prior years, a
lot of turnovers for this Wake team. They played a
ridiculously soft schedule and you really saw that soft schedule
come to fruition. I think in the a c C
Championship game when Clemson just waxed North Carolina. North Carolina
was that Wake Forest like they were like, you know,
(04:45):
the varsity version of Wake Forest because they beat Wake
earlier in the year, but they're kind of the same style.
They play a very fast, up tempo offense. Unique style
with Drake may not quite as slow meshy, but you
just saw that the a c C when they manage
up in class and Clemson is, you know, I know
they didn't have a class of clumpson year, but they're
still defensively, they're they're they're they're still the class of
the a SEC. When when when a team like U
(05:06):
n C and I put Wake in that same category
manage up, it really you see the talent gap there,
and I think Missouri's got a lot of it. And
you know, the Georgia game is evident. They played some
tough games throughout the course of the season and they're
very talented team. I think Eli Drinker, which is a
good coach, he's on the up and up. This is
I think a spot from Missouri, where again, if you
can get three I I kind of I kind of
(05:29):
leaned towards the Tigers here because they're a better defensive team.
And we'll see how focused Sam Hartman is. I heard
he got offers from almost every you know, major school
that needs a quarterback in this transfer window here, but
he's gonna stay at Wake, so we'll see how how
focused he is for this game. May be focused a
lot towards next season, but I kind of lean Missouri,
especially if you can get the full three. One more
(05:51):
bowl game. I mean, we got bowls left and right here,
but when we're gonna hit on mts U and San
Diego State, you've got your eye on this one. San
Diego State favored by six and a half in the
Hawaii Bowl. The first item of business here, is it
MT s U or is it just middle Tennessee. I mean,
that's the million dollar question we did at gust this
(06:12):
last week. I don't know, I mean middle ten it
kind of rolls off the tongue. But mt s U.
I'm a big acronym guy. I like everyone loves a
good acronym, right, you love the initials. You're all about it?
I know that, Yeah, all about it? Why not? I
think yeah? I think mt SU works better for like
(06:34):
a hashtag or a bumper sticker or any of that.
But getting into the actual nuts and bolts of the game.
You're on the the Aztecs over here. Huh yeah, it's
gonna make our power rich. Oh uh real happy. We'll
be doing this game, we'll be doing our show Saturday,
and he'll be doing the game from Hawaii, so we'll
see what bunker they've got him, and hopefully he has
like a beach palm tree backdrop. When we do the show,
(06:56):
we put it on zoom and stuff. So um, probably
it'll just be like the random painting in the hotel room.
But I hope he's in a tropical climate for this one.
Not a ton of opt outs on either side. Why
would you opt out before going to Why? Either a
bowl game, right Like, I wouldn't opped out before the game,
I would wait till afterwards. UM and San Diego States
just the more talented team. I don't hold Conference USA
(07:17):
in very high regard. And I know it wasn't your
classic season for the Mountain West, but it's still a
very good conference. They had a lot of good teams
on their schedule. Came close at Fresno State, nice wins
to close the season, covering the number, against New Mexico,
against San Jose State, you know, a good win over Toledo. UM.
You know, in in the nonconference they played Utah, they
(07:40):
played Arizona. So I I do think the San Diego
State team with Jalen Maiden at quarterback, you have to
make the adjustment from their early season numbers when their
offense was really struggling to now later in the year
where they've got this just rejuvenated offense under made In
of course, he he fired their offensive coordinator and they
swapped sides. There's you know, swap positions. He was a
former warnerback. Now he's arguably one of the more up
(08:03):
and coming promising young quarterbacks in college football, at least
in the Mountain West Conference. So I do think there's
there's a little vibe with the San Diego State team
that I like. On the other side, Middle is not
a very talented team, and I think motivationally speaking, they're
gonna be up for this game. I think both teams
will be up for this game. But I'm I'm a
little bit concerned with middles overall talent level um because again,
(08:25):
conference who say to me, isn't it isn't a very
strong one, and their offenses really struggled this year, especially
running the football outside the top one p a P
play in San Diego State has got a really top
notch defense. So I think I'm willing to lay it
with the Aztecs um in Hawaii looking to lay it. Okay,
now we uh, we have a little bit of time.
We can dip our big toe into the NFL waters
(08:46):
where on Christmas Day? Do I I'm taking my notes right?
You are hell bent on losing money with the Green
Bay Packers? Is that? Do I have that right? Or
that write that you do? We're gonna have to make
some kind of wage or side wager because I'll be honest,
I think the uh, you know, the the champion of
our rapid fire picks. I think that one's kind of
a kind of a done deal unless you make an
(09:08):
absurd comeback over these last few weeks here. So we'll
have to make a sideways there. On the Dolphins Packers game.
There's a lot to this game, and I think Aaron
Rodgers is finally starting to feel comfortable with this new
group of receivers because over the last I think it's
eight weeks since Week ten, so over the last six weeks,
basically the Packers offense is third inefficiency and not a
(09:32):
lot of people are talking about that because I think
overall the narrative on green Bay is, uh, they're down,
They're not missed the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers has heard and
you know, he doesn't like any of his receivers and
all that stuff. We're here and all that noise we're
hearing from the green Bay media about what's going on
behind the scenes. But quietly, green Bay's put together a
few good weeks here and they still have Aaron Rodgers,
(09:53):
and I don't think that is is uh, something you
can completely count out until the final nail in the
coffin is hammered in, and it's not yet because the
NFC is wide open now. On the Dolphins side, I
give them a lot of credit. They go up to Buffalo,
tough spot, short week, back to back weeks in California.
Then they go up to snowy Buffalo and they played
a game they were they played well enough to win
(10:14):
that game and Buffalo and Josh Allen just made made
the last play to win it. And and I think
that's that's what scares me, because I do think right
now the Packers offense is in a position that can
also put a lot of pressure on what's a very
banged up and overall underperforming Dolphins defense. So it will
see what the fronts look like back tr and Jenkins
still banged up on the left side of the Packers
(10:36):
old line. I like what I've seen from Jalen Phillips
and Chubb. Chub not as much. Phillips has been a stud,
you know, if they can create some pressure on Aaron
Rodgers and if Aaron Jones doesn't quite do his thing.
But the Dolphins defense gives up the most and has
one of the worst ratings against running backs and tight
ends out of the backfield, So Tonyan and Jones catching
passes could be a big factor in this game. But
if you're gonna give me four points with Aaron Rodgers
(10:57):
against the really bad defense on Christmas Day with the
national spot, it's really tough to turn that down. I
do like your comment before the pod started where you're
looking at the over. It's the highest total of the
week as of right now forty nine and a half.
But I could see the over cashing in that one.
I just look at the Dolphins where and look, I
am a Dolphins die hard fan, but trust me, I'm
(11:18):
putting the fan allegiance to the side. I still look
at the Packers, sub five hundred team, Dolphins run the
road for three straight games, and I think this is
a decent spot. After the Packers got by against the
Baker Mayfield led Rams in a nationally televised game on
Monday night, I think it's a good spot to fade
(11:38):
them right now because they haven't been world beaters. And
you'll see this sometimes from teams that are sub five hundred.
You get a little taste of success. And I'm not
saying you're falling victim to this year it, trust me,
I'm not. But you'll see a little taste of success
for a team that you had high expectations for that's
a complete dud this year, like the Packers, And it
just takes a little bit of like, oh, hey, did
(11:59):
you see him eat the Rams? I'm on the Packers
right now. You know. There's a little bit of that element,
And so I think there's some value in fading a
team that we had high expectations for that fell flat
but has had some recent success. Sometimes it swings the
other ways how I see it. I don't disagree. I again,
I think there's definitely a case to be made from
(12:20):
Miami in this game, and I think the biggest case
to make is their offensive line. They're getting healthier and
none of the members of the offensive line allowed more
than two pressures against the very good Bills front last week.
Tarren Armstead huge seven games this year allowing one or
nil pressures, and he's back and he's healthy. And it's
(12:41):
an extra day of r asked because the Dolphins played Saturday.
Now they play Sunday, and the Packers played Monday, and now,
of course, really it's a two day swing um for
this game. Restwise, it I hope Miami wins by a
fieldable because I've got a Dolphins win total over at
nine that I want to get home, and I was
feeling great a few weeks ago and now it's a
(13:01):
sweat and I've also I think, I think I'm gonna
get to the window on the Packers. Although you do
make a compelling argument, sir, and I do trust your
judgment very much. Well, thank you. I appreciate that one
more real fast here, because we've got a lot of games,
what eight games on Christmas Eve this Saturday, and you've
got the Titans circle? Does that right? Yeah? I really
(13:22):
do like the Titans in the spot. And it's simple
line analysis, right. The Titans were a one and a
half point favorite eight weeks ago with Malik Willis in Houston,
So if you assume one and a half points for
home field advantage, that would make the Titans minus three
on a neutral in that game. Now the Titans are
minus three at home in frigid wind conditions in front
of a very favorable Nashville crowd. That line doesn't make
(13:44):
any sense to me. And unless there is something else
glaring that I am missing, I don't understand how you
don't at least slightly upgrade Malik Willis after those two
starts he had not only beating the Texans in Houston,
but then going on the road and taking Patrick Homes
in the Chiefs to overtime. I would give him a
half a point upgrade just for those two experiences, a
little bit of, you know, confidence, being able to go
(14:05):
on the road and win a football game and go
toe for toe with the best quarterback in the league.
And I know Malik Willis's numbers didn't pop off the
page there, but listen, it's a team sport. He's the quarterback.
He made all the right reads, made all the right adjustments,
and they were in both of those games. Now he
gets the Texans defense. That is first of all, they
can't stop Derrick Henry four straight, two games against the
Houston defense, and they've had just two absolute battles back
(14:29):
to back. You take the Cowboys to the gun and
then you take the Chiefs to overtime last week. How
much does Houston have left in the tank? And listen,
I mean you want to tell me Davis Mills is
gonna go on the road and win a football game
against the Titans defense that's desperate with three straight losses,
coming off of a really tough game to the Chargers
and I think they rally around Willis this week. I
(14:49):
think Henry has a good game, I think the defense
plays well, and I think three is a gift value
number considering that the Titans were a road favorite, same
exact matchup eight weeks ago. And he yeah, you know
it's the NFL is just crazy, man, It really is.
Because the Texans are a one twelve and one football team.
And like you said, they gave the Cowboys and the
(15:10):
Chiefs everything they could handle everything, and those are legitimate
Super Bowl contempers and the Texans took them down to
the final, you know, final minute in uh at least
against Dallas and uh in overtime, like you said, against
the Chiefs, craziness and the Titans. This might be a
good get back spot, get right spot where losing four straight,
(15:33):
but look at these teams that they lost to. Bengals
are red hot, Eagles are the Eagles. The Jags have
won four of six now, and the Chargers have looked
a lot better the last couple of weeks and they're
getting healthier. So the step down in competition, if you will,
from the four teams that they just played to the Texans. Yeah,
and with Sir Derrick Henry going ballistic on Houston routinely. Yeah,
(15:57):
I see what you're thinking here with the Titans. It
just it seems like the right spot. Everyone's kind of
fading Tennessee after the Tannehill news, and I get it.
I mean, you want to take Tennessee off the list
of teams that can make a run of the playoffs.
Totally understands. But all they need to do is basically
win a football game against the Texas this week to
cover this number. Um, now that it's at three, I mean,
(16:18):
you know, most games land three. Maybe we push, but
I think get three. Let's just leave it at this.
I am willing to bet when we do this show
on Saturday morning that line's not three anymore. I bet
it's three and a half. Yeah, we'll see how it
shakes out. Hey, we will preview it on Saturdays, Jared
just said. Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented
(16:39):
by Bed MGM jeff Rich Hornberger will be with US
Penn State All American. Hey, he'll be in Hawaii, won't he.
I think he'll still be over there, very nice, getting
laid in white, some Oloha bounce back music over there.
Jared Smith from pickswise dot com. I'm Brian No. So
that will be nine am until noon Eastern time, right
(17:00):
up till kick off. We'll get you all set. Check
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Bet MGM, the king of sports books, all right, want
to welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper from
crack wins dot com joins us here. Crack Um, let's
(17:25):
start with this. Uh, there's a lot of weather, a
lot of bad weather games in week sixteen, But you
have your eye potentially on a grand Salami wager, which
I absolutely love. Why do you like? Uh? And that
is for anybody who doesn't know. It's just getting all
of the point totals in all of the games and
there's a number, and you're thinking the over is gonna hit.
(17:48):
Why are you maybe going against the grain in weeks
it's not even up yet, but normally they'll add the
totals of all the games, all the current weeks games,
and they'll put them in a game prop situation where
there will be on the different websites under game props,
not player props. So look, fir them on game props
(18:08):
or you know, Um, I'm trying to say, no, there's
game props. I just clicked on it. You know, it's
not not up yet, but it will be up though.
It comes up every single week. And I just think
that everyone overreacting to these totals. I think that the
over will be a good bet when that comes up,
(18:28):
as long as they use the game. The current totals
add them all up and that becomes the overunder. So
what I'm saying, guys, let's say there's a Grand Salami
which just uh five teams, Let's say five teams in
the totals fifty in every game. Well, that means that
the overhund will be to fifty. Will they scored more
than two fifty collectively cumulatively in all the games? So,
just to put it more Layman's terms. And I like
(18:51):
the over because I think a lot of these games
are gonna be Um, I think you get some built
in value because of the overreaction uh to the weather totals.
Of course, as we know from listening to our show
Countdown to Kickoff. I've said it many times on Sunday mornings. Um,
this is a situation where you want to make sure
(19:13):
that the wind that is the key, not the snow,
not the cold. They could play in cold, though there's
a point now it does cross over to that zero
degree that is a parameter you can actually measure it
at where it doesn't matter about the wind. You're playing
zero degrees. Those guys don't want to be out there.
(19:35):
So it's like the ice Bowl, the old ice Bowl.
So there is some specific situations that do apply rather
than the wind and wind gusts. But I don't know
if we're gonna get that this particular weekend. We're talking
nine nine above. It sounds like it's nothing, but it's something.
Um there there's a lot of games that have moved significantly,
(19:56):
I'm because of the weather, and I don't know if
really that is something that that's going to play through
in in in a cumulative way. It's probably a good
way to bet. I'm gonna look into that when that
line comes out, and uh, it should come out by
Friday night normally it's out. They're just looking at the
weather even more. They want to get a good grasp
on these totals. For instance, the Philadelphia Dallas game, not
(20:19):
a weather related, but that moved down from fifty and
a half fifty one and a half down to forty
four and a half forty five and a half. Now
it's up to forty seven and half forty seven, So
they want to get a good grasp on the lines
before they put that total out. I am going to
be looking at the over just to add up all
the games. So up all the totals. Guys, if it
equals the number, which it should be, that's the that's
(20:40):
that's usually the thing how they measure it. Um, I
would like the over in that situation, like it. How
about another exotic if you will? This is really interesting
crack Jags Jets on Thursday night football. We're recording this
on Thursday. You're thinking because of the weather, maybe a
two point conversion in TNF. How about Yeah, just it's
(21:01):
a cool prop that some of the sports books put up.
I I know they're it's supposed to be windy it's
supposed to be Windy Town. I got out up to
forty mile a gust there, and it's supposed to rain, so, uh,
this total thirty six and a half. Now, I believe
you have a couple of thirty seven still up there,
but thirty six and a half thirty seven, and I
kind of like, you know what the situation will they'll
(21:23):
actually maybe go for a too. You shouldn't be getting
plus three fifty three seventy five actually got four to one.
It's over three fifty or more. I think it's a
good bet to take a shot at. Will there be
a two point conversion made? Um? You know what? I
want to actually read the actual bet now to see
if it's made or attempted. I think it's made though,
(21:44):
but UM, let me just see when I uh got
my pending bets. Yes, successful successful two point conversion, Yes,
plus three seventy five. I bet at one sports book
up plus four to one and another. Um, I also
am looking at now that the weather came out, it
may have moved. So I I don't like giving out
player props if um if if if I if if
(22:06):
it's not obtainable on if I got it. So let's
see uh tonight's Jets Jaguar games. Zach Wilson looking at
his Yeah, I'm kind of looking at his passing props.
So I'm looking at his past completions. Yeah, it's still
a play. No, it's still a play. Wow. Okay, so
past completions under seventeen and a half minus thirty Now,
(22:26):
um I l twenty and uh so Zach Wilson under
seventeen and a half. I think these guys are gonna
have a tough time throwing the ball tonight in New York.
I can definitely see that being the case. How about
we skipped to Christmas Day Packers Dolphins. Now, this is
obviously not a weather game. Highest total of the week
forty nine and a half. You're looking at the first
(22:48):
half total in this one, crack, What are you seeing here?
I like points here. This this is a matter of
fact as of right now. This is if you can
get the twenty four and there's one, two, three, four,
there's four sports books here in Vegas with its twenty four.
That's a really strong play. I usually don't talk like that.
It's a pretty strong I think there's gonna be a
lot of points in that first half. Miami Green Bay
on Sunday morning. So um I. By the way, it's
(23:11):
a giant game for both teams. Giant Miami Favorite by
four total forty nine and a half. Both teams need
this game, so this is gonna be a This will
be a fun game, A fun game to watch in
the morning. Um. You know I always say that's ten
o'clock in the morning here in Vegas. Uh, kids are
open in presents and stuff. Listen, Honestly, if you don't,
(23:32):
if you missed the first half of the game, you
missed the first half of the game. Spend it with
your friends, your family, your loved ones, especially your folks
and your parents. It's not all about gambling, guys. Um,
I don't even like how they spread this out this week.
They put games Christmas Day, Christmas Eve. I don't even
get it. I don't know why they put all these
games on Saturday December when they you know, usually have
(23:54):
them all on the Sunday. And if they're playing some
games on Sunday, I play them all. So Uh. Anyway,
lots of action for people. I love when I hear
the commissioner or somebody saying that, well, if you use
the gambling aspect, only two or three percent of the
people watching the games bet the games. Yeah, okay, Mr commissioner,
give us a break now Christmas Eve on Saturday. You've
(24:17):
got Eagles Cowboys circled over here. Now Gardner Minshew, he'll
get the start. Jalen Hurts is on the shelf with
the shoulder injury, and you're looking at Philly plus six
in this one. Now, first thing, crack, you go back
to earlier this season when the two teams met, it's
sort of like the exact opposite where it was the Cowboys.
(24:38):
Dak Prescott was hurt, Cooper Rush was in there. Cowboys
had a nice second half comeback. They came up a
little bit short. Brett Maher missed a long field goal
that would have covered the spread for the Cowboys. Didn't
work out. Cowboys lost by nine, but it still was
a hard fought game. What do you see in this
one with Minshew for the Eagles filling in for Jalen.
(24:59):
I just think that this six and it was six here,
uh this morning before we got on air, and most
of the sports books now a couple only a couple
of them having they're disappearing. It's funny this game when
they announced, well they didn't announce. When the word was
out amongst the gambling twitter crowd, um literally before shafter
and anyone tweeted it out, uh that that that Hurts
(25:21):
wasn't going to play and he may have an injury.
By the way, very key game for the Eagles, so
they have to win one of these to lock this
whole thing up. This is a big game actually for them.
But if the line was one, one and a half
and now quickly went up to six, six and a half,
now you're seeing some TakeBack, You're seeing some people grabbed
the six. And I kind of leaned that way myself.
(25:42):
I'll tell you, I think Gardner issue is gonna be
gonna be a good backup. He has been before, and
he always wants to play, and you know, he wants
to show that he could be a starter on a
different team in the NFL. He's been around for years.
And uh I I kind of leaned to the points here.
I think there's still gonna be a good game. They
may step up for their quarterback. No quarterback, none, not one,
(26:05):
And all of the NFL's worth five points fellas not one.
So I don't care who it is. Nobody should be
giving should go from one to six based on a quarterback.
Nobody how about the line movement and it's partly because
of the weather, but in the Tennessee game, it just
made me think of that. With you saying that the
Titans were favored by as much as seven earlier in
(26:26):
the week, it's down to about three and a half
right now. Probably know Ryan Tannehill, the rookie Malik Willis
is expected to get to start. Do you see a
three and a half four point difference between Ryan Tannehill
and Malik Willis? No, I don't, and and you know,
I'll just tell you Houston kept it close verse Kansas
(26:48):
City last week actually was overtime, right, I'll just tell
you this. That game on paper they scored they think
they have three d and thirteen more yards Kansas City
than them. But when you have a hundred yards and penalties,
it doesn't look good on the scoreboard a lot. So Tennessee.
I mean, I'm sorry Houston did not keep that. They
kept the game close on the scoreboard where it counts
(27:08):
for us guys. I know that, But really statistically look
at that game and that they did not play Kansas
City that close. Sometimes people look off that engage that
as a parameter for the next week and they've been
playing hot. They played Dallas good. I understand, but let
me just tell you you're right. Uh, if anything, I'd
be leaning at the favorite here Tennessee. Uh minus at
(27:30):
three points. There is some threes out there minus three,
minus fifteen. I just really, Uh, you said it right?
Four points for the quarterback differential. I don't see it.
So that's an interesting game you pointed out. How about
the uh, the sucker bet of the week? Crack. This
is sometimes something that I'll do is I'm looking at
these points spreads and I'm like, where's the sucker bet?
(27:51):
What's the sucker bet to avoid? Where? Well, I'll go
with a couple of favorites. The Chargers minus four and
a half on the road against Nick Foles getting the start,
Matt Ryan benched again. The Colts have been a disaster.
They gave up a thirty three point lead last week. Like,
do you feel safe with the Chargers winning by at
least five? How about it seemed like uh, Cincinnati. Cincinnati
(28:16):
has been rolling there favored by three and a half
on the road against the Patriots, who crashed and burned
last week with the horrible decision by Jacoby Myers. Nobody's
gonna be just ecstatic about betting the Patriots, but betting
the Bengals. It could be a soccer bet. Is there
any sucker bet that you see right now? In Week six? Team? Well,
it's funny you say that. Last week we talked about
(28:37):
it in the same space the Indianapolis game where it
looked too easy for Minnesota. Last week you say, oh
my god, this looks so easy. And and that's the
way it is. It looked easy. I'll tell you what.
We talked about a game last week in this same
space that was amazing thirty three nothing come back and
and the biggest comeback in football last week. So that
(28:59):
that was amazing here and that and and see how
you stay away from that game? It looked too easy
to be And sure enough, Indianapolis, even if blowing a
thirty or three point lead, still didn't cover that game.
Cincinnati New England, I don't really know if that's one
of the ones. It opened up four, it's down to three. Um,
maybe it looks a little easier for Cincinnati. Uh. New
(29:19):
England definitely needs the game more, that's for sure. Um,
it's it's a game that I'm staying away from there. Um,
what was the other game? You talked, did you say
Indiana was the other the Chargers cold. It's the Monday
night game. So the Chargers Colts game. You know, every
single sharp guy I know is is touting the Chargers
(29:39):
now as being one of the best teams, you know,
the second half of the season teams. I'm sorry, I
just don't. I don't trust them. I just don't trust them. Um,
just for everyone to know, if you're gonna look at
this game, it opened up three, it's now four and
a half. There's a first half line of three. Uh.
If you're gonna bet the Indianapolis Colts in this game,
(30:00):
I would just bet him in the first half. They're
the first half team. Let's call them a first half team.
But I'm I'm also have really no opinion on that
Monday night game. Um. Everyone, like I said, is Chargers
now all the sharp guys thinking they're one of the
better teams in the second half, and uh, the second
team they they think and and this is not just
for me, It's from a couple of different really sharp groups.
(30:22):
San Fran even with the backup there, even with Jimmy
g out, so they they like San Frans going into
the playoffs. On a high here. But um, you know, listen,
as we could say every week, and I always pointed out, guys,
this is the NFL. You see what happens every week.
You start shaking your head and say, how can this
have happened? How can that have happened? I watched the
Giants game the other night, Giants and and and Washington.
(30:45):
The end of that game, I shake my head at
the officiating. How bad it's gotten. This is two thousand
twenty two, let's call it twenty three. We're supposed to
be in an era here of you're gonna get every
play right. You have New York, you got the sideline cameras,
you got the sideline reviews. I don't know what's happened Washington.
(31:05):
Even though I didn't bet the game, Washington really got
screwed at the end of that game the other night.
So it's, uh, this is where we're betting our hard
earned money, guys on on these ebers. That was just
obvious pass interference that wasn't called at the end of
that game. I want to get your opinion on this
crack because the Raiders and the Steelers, this is the
(31:25):
Saturday night game on Christmas Eve and the Steelers are
favored by two and a half. I'm just curious if
you ever take into account nostalgia anything beyond the numbers, right, Like,
I know you do your analysis and you put stock
in that. But with Franco Harris dying and with first off,
(31:47):
that's what matters most is his loved ones, his friends.
That that's obviously what matters. But we're talking gambling here,
and as it completely secondarily relates to the game, there's
gonna be a lot of emotion in the building on
Saturday night as this Dealer's host the Raiders. They planned
on retiring Franco Harris's jersey at halftime. Like, imagine how
(32:09):
emotional it's gonna be that night. Do you take that
into account at all when you're trying to handicap that game? Yeah,
that was such a bed on our group chat. I
texted out how terrible that was. They were just having
the fifty year reunionmaculate reception, all the retiring his number
and one of those something he was a great guy.
I met Franco Harris uh at at at Um a
(32:31):
couple of different times in life, but the one that
stands out to me is the first Jimmy v Classic
in Carrie, North Carolina. I was there with my brother
with Dick Vital was so nice to us and who
also was nice. My god, spent so much time with
Franco Talco to him, what a nice guy, what a
nice man, Mike Adolts is to him and his family. Jesus,
I pray for him, Um, I pray for his family. Listen,
(32:54):
this is gonna be a very emotional game. This is
gonna be a very interesting situation on Christmas Eve. And uh,
you know, you pick something that I normally don't emotion
and stuff like that, you don't really think about being
part of the game. There's you know, uh, you think
it's priced in already. I may look at the money
line here. There's a couple of minus one thirties out
(33:15):
there and one thirty five. I may look at the
money line here on the Pittsburgh game. I think that uh,
people will lean towards Pittsburgh in this game based on that.
It's big news, by the way, So that's that's a
big thing. And it might be a good angle just
to lay the money line now, guys, and then come
back and maybe take the three. And I'll tell you
I use I don't like middling, but when you have
(33:36):
a low total like that thirty eight and a half
thirty eight and maybe a good middle opportunity in that
game to to to lay the dollar thirty so um,
and and come back with the with the plus whatever
you know, whateverever you can get on the other side.
So um, you picked out a very unique situation. I'm
not a trend guy. I'm not, uh, you know, I
(33:56):
hate trends over years and stuff and different things like that.
But this is, uh, you know, there's still something to
me too. By the way, So all the analytical models
and math programs, uh, analytics, all these different things are
supposed to are part of my game. I still have
that New Yorker and me, I'm still a little superstitious
(34:17):
about things. I can't help it. It's just it is
what it is. It's always gonna be that way for me.
So you you brought up an interesting thing about uh
this this game, and I'll be rooting for Pittsburgh in
this game, if not financially emotionally, Yeah no, me too.
Hey be sure to check out the new looking features
in the bed MGM app. It's fast and easy access
to the sports you love, whether it's live betting, the
(34:40):
Daily Lions Boost, or the cash out feature. New users
can use the code countdown for a special offer. All right,
make sure you check us out. We'll be off this
Sunday due to Christmas Day, but we will be back.
What'll that be Week seventeen? The following week on Sunday,
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran Bill Krackenburger from crack
(35:02):
Winds dot com sports handicapper, myself Brian though, will be
with you next Sunday in week seventeen after the holidays,
from ten am to one pm Eastern Time, getting you
all set for kickoff. In the meantime, enjoy Christmas Eve,
Christmas Day, all the family stuff, all the football, and
we'll catch you next week.
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
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Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
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the Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM podcast. We'll
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that's code countdown in the bet MGM app. I'm Brian Note.
Let's welcome in Jared Smith here, and let's whet our
(01:09):
appetites here with some college football to start off here.
We've got Air Force and Baylor on Thursday evening the
Armed Forces Bowl there is major movement on Air Force
here as the points read right now, you've got Baylor
uh minus three and a half at bet MGM. Baylor
is FAVOREDE. But that line has moved steadily throughout the week.
(01:30):
Some love for the Air Force Falcons over here. Jared Smith,
where do you lie on this one? Yes? So it
went from seven to now three and a half. We're
taking this on a Thursday. If if if you catch
this before Thursday and it gets down to three or
Thursday night, I should say, and it gets down to three,
I mean ste been so I don't think it'll get
to three. I think the reason for the move it's
(01:54):
fruit of bull season. I've talked about this like a
jillion times. Every you know person that covers the gambling
space in ledge football has talked about this. How motivated
is bailor for a bowl game against air Force? A
military ball game against air Force when last year they
were playing in the Sugar Bowl and they had very
high expectations for this season. I don't know the answer
to that question. I think the motivation factor it's really
(02:16):
really hard to get in. We can get like hints
and context clues sometimes and maybe it's the the opt outs,
or it's the coaching changes that kind of give you
a glimpse behind the curtain. But I really you really
don't know how up for this game Bailor is because
we can't get inside the minds of every single one
of the players. I will say this, if Baylor is
up for this game, they have a massive edge in
(02:37):
the trenches and I expect them to dominate if they care. Now,
the weather will play a factor here brutally cold in
Fort Worth, Texas today, wind chills and the teens and
I don't really think that that helps Bailor because they
do like to throw it a little bit. But they're
also a very good rushing offense. They've got a freshman
running back Um who had a really good season, but
he kind of tailed off down the stretch. He's had
(02:58):
a month off David and a defensive mind fired his
defensive coordinator, so he's had a few weeks I think
to kind of figure things out and prepare for this
triple option. I think he's one of the most gifted
minds defensive minds in football, So if he is again
up for this game, as the rest of Baylor, I
do think the Bears at three and a half. You're
getting kind of a bylow spot for them, but obviously
(03:19):
low hanging fruit. How can you fade a military team? Uh?
In a military bowl? And and that's why I think
we're seeing a lot of love for air Force here.
Nothing worse than betting on a team. And you learn
very quickly in the bowl season like they just don't
care about this game. You're like, oh no, I'm on
the team that doesn't care at all. It's a lonely
(03:39):
place to be. Let's shift to the Gasparilla Bowl. Huh.
Let's look at a Friday. We've got wake Forest at Missouri,
and wake Forest is favored by two points in this one.
What do you think about the slow mesh and Sam
Hartman going up against a Tiger's defense that, Hey, they
had a couple of games here. They hung with Georgia.
They gave Georgia everything they could handle. What do you
(04:00):
see in wake v. Missouri? Yeah, a lot of opt
outs from a Zoo, including their defensive coordinator who opted
out to a new job at U n LV, some
defensive starters, the leading wide receiver, the left tackle. But
despite all of that, we still saw Missouri go through
the key number of three and and it reached one,
and now we're seeing some buyback on Wake Forest. It's
(04:22):
really about Sam Hartman here, and you're right, the slow
mesh offense which was kind of slow and not as
meshy as as what we've seen in prior years, a
lot of turnovers for this Wake team. They played a
ridiculously soft schedule and you really saw that soft schedule
come to fruition. I think in the a c C
Championship game when Clemson just waxed North Carolina. North Carolina
was that Wake Forest like they were like, you know,
(04:45):
the varsity version of Wake Forest because they beat Wake
earlier in the year, but they're kind of the same style.
They play a very fast, up tempo offense. Unique style
with Drake may not quite as slow meshy, but you
just saw that the a c C when they manage
up in class and Clemson is, you know, I know
they didn't have a class of clumpson year, but they're
still defensively, they're they're they're they're still the class of
the a SEC. When when when a team like U
(05:06):
n C and I put Wake in that same category
manage up, it really you see the talent gap there,
and I think Missouri's got a lot of it. And
you know, the Georgia game is evident. They played some
tough games throughout the course of the season and they're
very talented team. I think Eli Drinker, which is a
good coach, he's on the up and up. This is
I think a spot from Missouri, where again, if you
can get three I I kind of I kind of
(05:29):
leaned towards the Tigers here because they're a better defensive team.
And we'll see how focused Sam Hartman is. I heard
he got offers from almost every you know, major school
that needs a quarterback in this transfer window here, but
he's gonna stay at Wake, so we'll see how how
focused he is for this game. May be focused a
lot towards next season, but I kind of lean Missouri,
especially if you can get the full three. One more
(05:51):
bowl game. I mean, we got bowls left and right here,
but when we're gonna hit on mts U and San
Diego State, you've got your eye on this one. San
Diego State favored by six and a half in the
Hawaii Bowl. The first item of business here, is it
MT s U or is it just middle Tennessee. I mean,
that's the million dollar question we did at gust this
(06:12):
last week. I don't know, I mean middle ten it
kind of rolls off the tongue. But mt s U.
I'm a big acronym guy. I like everyone loves a
good acronym, right, you love the initials. You're all about it?
I know that, Yeah, all about it? Why not? I
think yeah? I think mt SU works better for like
(06:34):
a hashtag or a bumper sticker or any of that.
But getting into the actual nuts and bolts of the game.
You're on the the Aztecs over here. Huh yeah, it's
gonna make our power rich. Oh uh real happy. We'll
be doing this game, we'll be doing our show Saturday,
and he'll be doing the game from Hawaii, so we'll
see what bunker they've got him, and hopefully he has
like a beach palm tree backdrop. When we do the show,
(06:56):
we put it on zoom and stuff. So um, probably
it'll just be like the random painting in the hotel room.
But I hope he's in a tropical climate for this one.
Not a ton of opt outs on either side. Why
would you opt out before going to Why? Either a
bowl game, right Like, I wouldn't opped out before the game,
I would wait till afterwards. UM and San Diego States
just the more talented team. I don't hold Conference USA
(07:17):
in very high regard. And I know it wasn't your
classic season for the Mountain West, but it's still a
very good conference. They had a lot of good teams
on their schedule. Came close at Fresno State, nice wins
to close the season, covering the number, against New Mexico,
against San Jose State, you know, a good win over Toledo. UM.
You know, in in the nonconference they played Utah, they
(07:40):
played Arizona. So I I do think the San Diego
State team with Jalen Maiden at quarterback, you have to
make the adjustment from their early season numbers when their
offense was really struggling to now later in the year
where they've got this just rejuvenated offense under made In
of course, he he fired their offensive coordinator and they
swapped sides. There's you know, swap positions. He was a
former warnerback. Now he's arguably one of the more up
(08:03):
and coming promising young quarterbacks in college football, at least
in the Mountain West Conference. So I do think there's
there's a little vibe with the San Diego State team
that I like. On the other side, Middle is not
a very talented team, and I think motivationally speaking, they're
gonna be up for this game. I think both teams
will be up for this game. But I'm I'm a
little bit concerned with middles overall talent level um because again,
(08:25):
conference who say to me, isn't it isn't a very
strong one, and their offenses really struggled this year, especially
running the football outside the top one p a P
play in San Diego State has got a really top
notch defense. So I think I'm willing to lay it
with the Aztecs um in Hawaii looking to lay it. Okay,
now we uh, we have a little bit of time.
We can dip our big toe into the NFL waters
(08:46):
where on Christmas Day? Do I I'm taking my notes right?
You are hell bent on losing money with the Green
Bay Packers? Is that? Do I have that right? Or
that write that you do? We're gonna have to make
some kind of wage or side wager because I'll be honest,
I think the uh, you know, the the champion of
our rapid fire picks. I think that one's kind of
a kind of a done deal unless you make an
(09:08):
absurd comeback over these last few weeks here. So we'll
have to make a sideways there. On the Dolphins Packers game.
There's a lot to this game, and I think Aaron
Rodgers is finally starting to feel comfortable with this new
group of receivers because over the last I think it's
eight weeks since Week ten, so over the last six weeks,
basically the Packers offense is third inefficiency and not a
(09:32):
lot of people are talking about that because I think
overall the narrative on green Bay is, uh, they're down,
They're not missed the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers has heard and
you know, he doesn't like any of his receivers and
all that stuff. We're here and all that noise we're
hearing from the green Bay media about what's going on
behind the scenes. But quietly, green Bay's put together a
few good weeks here and they still have Aaron Rodgers,
(09:53):
and I don't think that is is uh, something you
can completely count out until the final nail in the
coffin is hammered in, and it's not yet because the
NFC is wide open now. On the Dolphins side, I
give them a lot of credit. They go up to Buffalo,
tough spot, short week, back to back weeks in California.
Then they go up to snowy Buffalo and they played
a game they were they played well enough to win
(10:14):
that game and Buffalo and Josh Allen just made made
the last play to win it. And and I think
that's that's what scares me, because I do think right
now the Packers offense is in a position that can
also put a lot of pressure on what's a very
banged up and overall underperforming Dolphins defense. So it will
see what the fronts look like back tr and Jenkins
still banged up on the left side of the Packers
(10:36):
old line. I like what I've seen from Jalen Phillips
and Chubb. Chub not as much. Phillips has been a stud,
you know, if they can create some pressure on Aaron
Rodgers and if Aaron Jones doesn't quite do his thing.
But the Dolphins defense gives up the most and has
one of the worst ratings against running backs and tight
ends out of the backfield, So Tonyan and Jones catching
passes could be a big factor in this game. But
if you're gonna give me four points with Aaron Rodgers
(10:57):
against the really bad defense on Christmas Day with the
national spot, it's really tough to turn that down. I
do like your comment before the pod started where you're
looking at the over. It's the highest total of the
week as of right now forty nine and a half.
But I could see the over cashing in that one.
I just look at the Dolphins where and look, I
am a Dolphins die hard fan, but trust me, I'm
(11:18):
putting the fan allegiance to the side. I still look
at the Packers, sub five hundred team, Dolphins run the
road for three straight games, and I think this is
a decent spot. After the Packers got by against the
Baker Mayfield led Rams in a nationally televised game on
Monday night, I think it's a good spot to fade
(11:38):
them right now because they haven't been world beaters. And
you'll see this sometimes from teams that are sub five hundred.
You get a little taste of success. And I'm not
saying you're falling victim to this year it, trust me,
I'm not. But you'll see a little taste of success
for a team that you had high expectations for that's
a complete dud this year, like the Packers, And it
just takes a little bit of like, oh, hey, did
(11:59):
you see him eat the Rams? I'm on the Packers
right now. You know. There's a little bit of that element,
And so I think there's some value in fading a
team that we had high expectations for that fell flat
but has had some recent success. Sometimes it swings the
other ways how I see it. I don't disagree. I again,
I think there's definitely a case to be made from
(12:20):
Miami in this game, and I think the biggest case
to make is their offensive line. They're getting healthier and
none of the members of the offensive line allowed more
than two pressures against the very good Bills front last week.
Tarren Armstead huge seven games this year allowing one or
nil pressures, and he's back and he's healthy. And it's
(12:41):
an extra day of r asked because the Dolphins played Saturday.
Now they play Sunday, and the Packers played Monday, and now,
of course, really it's a two day swing um for
this game. Restwise, it I hope Miami wins by a
fieldable because I've got a Dolphins win total over at
nine that I want to get home, and I was
feeling great a few weeks ago and now it's a
(13:01):
sweat and I've also I think, I think I'm gonna
get to the window on the Packers. Although you do
make a compelling argument, sir, and I do trust your
judgment very much. Well, thank you. I appreciate that one
more real fast here, because we've got a lot of games,
what eight games on Christmas Eve this Saturday, and you've
got the Titans circle? Does that right? Yeah? I really
(13:22):
do like the Titans in the spot. And it's simple
line analysis, right. The Titans were a one and a
half point favorite eight weeks ago with Malik Willis in Houston,
So if you assume one and a half points for
home field advantage, that would make the Titans minus three
on a neutral in that game. Now the Titans are
minus three at home in frigid wind conditions in front
of a very favorable Nashville crowd. That line doesn't make
(13:44):
any sense to me. And unless there is something else
glaring that I am missing, I don't understand how you
don't at least slightly upgrade Malik Willis after those two
starts he had not only beating the Texans in Houston,
but then going on the road and taking Patrick Homes
in the Chiefs to overtime. I would give him a
half a point upgrade just for those two experiences, a
little bit of, you know, confidence, being able to go
(14:05):
on the road and win a football game and go
toe for toe with the best quarterback in the league.
And I know Malik Willis's numbers didn't pop off the
page there, but listen, it's a team sport. He's the quarterback.
He made all the right reads, made all the right adjustments,
and they were in both of those games. Now he
gets the Texans defense. That is first of all, they
can't stop Derrick Henry four straight, two games against the
Houston defense, and they've had just two absolute battles back
(14:29):
to back. You take the Cowboys to the gun and
then you take the Chiefs to overtime last week. How
much does Houston have left in the tank? And listen,
I mean you want to tell me Davis Mills is
gonna go on the road and win a football game
against the Titans defense that's desperate with three straight losses,
coming off of a really tough game to the Chargers
and I think they rally around Willis this week. I
(14:49):
think Henry has a good game, I think the defense
plays well, and I think three is a gift value
number considering that the Titans were a road favorite, same
exact matchup eight weeks ago. And he yeah, you know
it's the NFL is just crazy, man, It really is.
Because the Texans are a one twelve and one football team.
And like you said, they gave the Cowboys and the
(15:10):
Chiefs everything they could handle everything, and those are legitimate
Super Bowl contempers and the Texans took them down to
the final, you know, final minute in uh at least
against Dallas and uh in overtime, like you said, against
the Chiefs, craziness and the Titans. This might be a
good get back spot, get right spot where losing four straight,
(15:33):
but look at these teams that they lost to. Bengals
are red hot, Eagles are the Eagles. The Jags have
won four of six now, and the Chargers have looked
a lot better the last couple of weeks and they're
getting healthier. So the step down in competition, if you will,
from the four teams that they just played to the Texans. Yeah,
and with Sir Derrick Henry going ballistic on Houston routinely. Yeah,
(15:57):
I see what you're thinking here with the Titans. It
just it seems like the right spot. Everyone's kind of
fading Tennessee after the Tannehill news, and I get it.
I mean, you want to take Tennessee off the list
of teams that can make a run of the playoffs.
Totally understands. But all they need to do is basically
win a football game against the Texas this week to
cover this number. Um, now that it's at three, I mean,
(16:18):
you know, most games land three. Maybe we push, but
I think get three. Let's just leave it at this.
I am willing to bet when we do this show
on Saturday morning that line's not three anymore. I bet
it's three and a half. Yeah, we'll see how it
shakes out. Hey, we will preview it on Saturdays, Jared
just said. Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented
(16:39):
by Bed MGM jeff Rich Hornberger will be with US
Penn State All American. Hey, he'll be in Hawaii, won't he.
I think he'll still be over there, very nice, getting
laid in white, some Oloha bounce back music over there.
Jared Smith from pickswise dot com. I'm Brian No. So
that will be nine am until noon Eastern time, right
(17:00):
up till kick off. We'll get you all set. Check
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Bet MGM, the king of sports books, all right, want
to welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handicapper from
crack wins dot com joins us here. Crack Um, let's
(17:25):
start with this. Uh, there's a lot of weather, a
lot of bad weather games in week sixteen, But you
have your eye potentially on a grand Salami wager, which
I absolutely love. Why do you like? Uh? And that
is for anybody who doesn't know. It's just getting all
of the point totals in all of the games and
there's a number, and you're thinking the over is gonna hit.
(17:48):
Why are you maybe going against the grain in weeks
it's not even up yet, but normally they'll add the
totals of all the games, all the current weeks games,
and they'll put them in a game prop situation where
there will be on the different websites under game props,
not player props. So look, fir them on game props
(18:08):
or you know, Um, I'm trying to say, no, there's
game props. I just clicked on it. You know, it's
not not up yet, but it will be up though.
It comes up every single week. And I just think
that everyone overreacting to these totals. I think that the
over will be a good bet when that comes up,
(18:28):
as long as they use the game. The current totals
add them all up and that becomes the overunder. So
what I'm saying, guys, let's say there's a Grand Salami
which just uh five teams, Let's say five teams in
the totals fifty in every game. Well, that means that
the overhund will be to fifty. Will they scored more
than two fifty collectively cumulatively in all the games? So,
just to put it more Layman's terms. And I like
(18:51):
the over because I think a lot of these games
are gonna be Um, I think you get some built
in value because of the overreaction uh to the weather totals.
Of course, as we know from listening to our show
Countdown to Kickoff. I've said it many times on Sunday mornings. Um,
this is a situation where you want to make sure
(19:13):
that the wind that is the key, not the snow,
not the cold. They could play in cold, though there's
a point now it does cross over to that zero
degree that is a parameter you can actually measure it
at where it doesn't matter about the wind. You're playing
zero degrees. Those guys don't want to be out there.
(19:35):
So it's like the ice Bowl, the old ice Bowl.
So there is some specific situations that do apply rather
than the wind and wind gusts. But I don't know
if we're gonna get that this particular weekend. We're talking
nine nine above. It sounds like it's nothing, but it's something.
Um there there's a lot of games that have moved significantly,
(19:56):
I'm because of the weather, and I don't know if
really that is something that that's going to play through
in in in a cumulative way. It's probably a good
way to bet. I'm gonna look into that when that
line comes out, and uh, it should come out by
Friday night normally it's out. They're just looking at the
weather even more. They want to get a good grasp
on these totals. For instance, the Philadelphia Dallas game, not
(20:19):
a weather related, but that moved down from fifty and
a half fifty one and a half down to forty
four and a half forty five and a half. Now
it's up to forty seven and half forty seven, So
they want to get a good grasp on the lines
before they put that total out. I am going to
be looking at the over just to add up all
the games. So up all the totals. Guys, if it
equals the number, which it should be, that's the that's
(20:40):
that's usually the thing how they measure it. Um, I
would like the over in that situation, like it. How
about another exotic if you will? This is really interesting
crack Jags Jets on Thursday night football. We're recording this
on Thursday. You're thinking because of the weather, maybe a
two point conversion in TNF. How about Yeah, just it's
(21:01):
a cool prop that some of the sports books put up.
I I know they're it's supposed to be windy it's
supposed to be Windy Town. I got out up to
forty mile a gust there, and it's supposed to rain, so, uh,
this total thirty six and a half. Now, I believe
you have a couple of thirty seven still up there,
but thirty six and a half thirty seven, and I
kind of like, you know what the situation will they'll
(21:23):
actually maybe go for a too. You shouldn't be getting
plus three fifty three seventy five actually got four to one.
It's over three fifty or more. I think it's a
good bet to take a shot at. Will there be
a two point conversion made? Um? You know what? I
want to actually read the actual bet now to see
if it's made or attempted. I think it's made though,
(21:44):
but UM, let me just see when I uh got
my pending bets. Yes, successful successful two point conversion, Yes,
plus three seventy five. I bet at one sports book
up plus four to one and another. Um, I also
am looking at now that the weather came out, it
may have moved. So I I don't like giving out
player props if um if if if I if if
(22:06):
it's not obtainable on if I got it. So let's
see uh tonight's Jets Jaguar games. Zach Wilson looking at
his Yeah, I'm kind of looking at his passing props.
So I'm looking at his past completions. Yeah, it's still
a play. No, it's still a play. Wow. Okay, so
past completions under seventeen and a half minus thirty Now,
(22:26):
um I l twenty and uh so Zach Wilson under
seventeen and a half. I think these guys are gonna
have a tough time throwing the ball tonight in New York.
I can definitely see that being the case. How about
we skipped to Christmas Day Packers Dolphins. Now, this is
obviously not a weather game. Highest total of the week
forty nine and a half. You're looking at the first
(22:48):
half total in this one, crack, What are you seeing here?
I like points here. This this is a matter of
fact as of right now. This is if you can
get the twenty four and there's one, two, three, four,
there's four sports books here in Vegas with its twenty four.
That's a really strong play. I usually don't talk like that.
It's a pretty strong I think there's gonna be a
lot of points in that first half. Miami Green Bay
on Sunday morning. So um I. By the way, it's
(23:11):
a giant game for both teams. Giant Miami Favorite by
four total forty nine and a half. Both teams need
this game, so this is gonna be a This will
be a fun game, A fun game to watch in
the morning. Um. You know I always say that's ten
o'clock in the morning here in Vegas. Uh, kids are
open in presents and stuff. Listen, Honestly, if you don't,
(23:32):
if you missed the first half of the game, you
missed the first half of the game. Spend it with
your friends, your family, your loved ones, especially your folks
and your parents. It's not all about gambling, guys. Um,
I don't even like how they spread this out this week.
They put games Christmas Day, Christmas Eve. I don't even
get it. I don't know why they put all these
games on Saturday December when they you know, usually have
(23:54):
them all on the Sunday. And if they're playing some
games on Sunday, I play them all. So Uh. Anyway,
lots of action for people. I love when I hear
the commissioner or somebody saying that, well, if you use
the gambling aspect, only two or three percent of the
people watching the games bet the games. Yeah, okay, Mr commissioner,
give us a break now Christmas Eve on Saturday. You've
(24:17):
got Eagles Cowboys circled over here. Now Gardner Minshew, he'll
get the start. Jalen Hurts is on the shelf with
the shoulder injury, and you're looking at Philly plus six
in this one. Now, first thing, crack, you go back
to earlier this season when the two teams met, it's
sort of like the exact opposite where it was the Cowboys.
(24:38):
Dak Prescott was hurt, Cooper Rush was in there. Cowboys
had a nice second half comeback. They came up a
little bit short. Brett Maher missed a long field goal
that would have covered the spread for the Cowboys. Didn't
work out. Cowboys lost by nine, but it still was
a hard fought game. What do you see in this
one with Minshew for the Eagles filling in for Jalen.
(24:59):
I just think that this six and it was six here,
uh this morning before we got on air, and most
of the sports books now a couple only a couple
of them having they're disappearing. It's funny this game when
they announced, well they didn't announce. When the word was
out amongst the gambling twitter crowd, um literally before shafter
and anyone tweeted it out, uh that that that Hurts
(25:21):
wasn't going to play and he may have an injury.
By the way, very key game for the Eagles, so
they have to win one of these to lock this
whole thing up. This is a big game actually for them.
But if the line was one, one and a half
and now quickly went up to six, six and a half,
now you're seeing some TakeBack, You're seeing some people grabbed
the six. And I kind of leaned that way myself.
(25:42):
I'll tell you, I think Gardner issue is gonna be
gonna be a good backup. He has been before, and
he always wants to play, and you know, he wants
to show that he could be a starter on a
different team in the NFL. He's been around for years.
And uh I I kind of leaned to the points here.
I think there's still gonna be a good game. They
may step up for their quarterback. No quarterback, none, not one,
(26:05):
And all of the NFL's worth five points fellas not one.
So I don't care who it is. Nobody should be
giving should go from one to six based on a quarterback.
Nobody how about the line movement and it's partly because
of the weather, but in the Tennessee game, it just
made me think of that. With you saying that the
Titans were favored by as much as seven earlier in
(26:26):
the week, it's down to about three and a half
right now. Probably know Ryan Tannehill, the rookie Malik Willis
is expected to get to start. Do you see a
three and a half four point difference between Ryan Tannehill
and Malik Willis? No, I don't, and and you know,
I'll just tell you Houston kept it close verse Kansas
(26:48):
City last week actually was overtime, right, I'll just tell
you this. That game on paper they scored they think
they have three d and thirteen more yards Kansas City
than them. But when you have a hundred yards and penalties,
it doesn't look good on the scoreboard a lot. So Tennessee.
I mean, I'm sorry Houston did not keep that. They
kept the game close on the scoreboard where it counts
(27:08):
for us guys. I know that, But really statistically look
at that game and that they did not play Kansas
City that close. Sometimes people look off that engage that
as a parameter for the next week and they've been
playing hot. They played Dallas good. I understand, but let
me just tell you you're right. Uh, if anything, I'd
be leaning at the favorite here Tennessee. Uh minus at
(27:30):
three points. There is some threes out there minus three,
minus fifteen. I just really, Uh, you said it right?
Four points for the quarterback differential. I don't see it.
So that's an interesting game you pointed out. How about
the uh, the sucker bet of the week? Crack. This
is sometimes something that I'll do is I'm looking at
these points spreads and I'm like, where's the sucker bet?
(27:51):
What's the sucker bet to avoid? Where? Well, I'll go
with a couple of favorites. The Chargers minus four and
a half on the road against Nick Foles getting the start,
Matt Ryan benched again. The Colts have been a disaster.
They gave up a thirty three point lead last week. Like,
do you feel safe with the Chargers winning by at
least five? How about it seemed like uh, Cincinnati. Cincinnati
(28:16):
has been rolling there favored by three and a half
on the road against the Patriots, who crashed and burned
last week with the horrible decision by Jacoby Myers. Nobody's
gonna be just ecstatic about betting the Patriots, but betting
the Bengals. It could be a soccer bet. Is there
any sucker bet that you see right now? In Week six? Team? Well,
it's funny you say that. Last week we talked about
(28:37):
it in the same space the Indianapolis game where it
looked too easy for Minnesota. Last week you say, oh
my god, this looks so easy. And and that's the
way it is. It looked easy. I'll tell you what.
We talked about a game last week in this same
space that was amazing thirty three nothing come back and
and the biggest comeback in football last week. So that
(28:59):
that was amazing here and that and and see how
you stay away from that game? It looked too easy
to be And sure enough, Indianapolis, even if blowing a
thirty or three point lead, still didn't cover that game.
Cincinnati New England, I don't really know if that's one
of the ones. It opened up four, it's down to three. Um,
maybe it looks a little easier for Cincinnati. Uh. New
(29:19):
England definitely needs the game more, that's for sure. Um,
it's it's a game that I'm staying away from there. Um,
what was the other game? You talked, did you say
Indiana was the other the Chargers cold. It's the Monday
night game. So the Chargers Colts game. You know, every
single sharp guy I know is is touting the Chargers
(29:39):
now as being one of the best teams, you know,
the second half of the season teams. I'm sorry, I
just don't. I don't trust them. I just don't trust them. Um,
just for everyone to know, if you're gonna look at
this game, it opened up three, it's now four and
a half. There's a first half line of three. Uh.
If you're gonna bet the Indianapolis Colts in this game,
(30:00):
I would just bet him in the first half. They're
the first half team. Let's call them a first half team.
But I'm I'm also have really no opinion on that
Monday night game. Um. Everyone, like I said, is Chargers
now all the sharp guys thinking they're one of the
better teams in the second half, and uh, the second
team they they think and and this is not just
for me, It's from a couple of different really sharp groups.
(30:22):
San Fran even with the backup there, even with Jimmy
g out, so they they like San Frans going into
the playoffs. On a high here. But um, you know, listen,
as we could say every week, and I always pointed out, guys,
this is the NFL. You see what happens every week.
You start shaking your head and say, how can this
have happened? How can that have happened? I watched the
Giants game the other night, Giants and and and Washington.
(30:45):
The end of that game, I shake my head at
the officiating. How bad it's gotten. This is two thousand
twenty two, let's call it twenty three. We're supposed to
be in an era here of you're gonna get every
play right. You have New York, you got the sideline cameras,
you got the sideline reviews. I don't know what's happened Washington.
(31:05):
Even though I didn't bet the game, Washington really got
screwed at the end of that game the other night.
So it's, uh, this is where we're betting our hard
earned money, guys on on these ebers. That was just
obvious pass interference that wasn't called at the end of
that game. I want to get your opinion on this
crack because the Raiders and the Steelers, this is the
(31:25):
Saturday night game on Christmas Eve and the Steelers are
favored by two and a half. I'm just curious if
you ever take into account nostalgia anything beyond the numbers, right, Like,
I know you do your analysis and you put stock
in that. But with Franco Harris dying and with first off,
(31:47):
that's what matters most is his loved ones, his friends.
That that's obviously what matters. But we're talking gambling here,
and as it completely secondarily relates to the game, there's
gonna be a lot of emotion in the building on
Saturday night as this Dealer's host the Raiders. They planned
on retiring Franco Harris's jersey at halftime. Like, imagine how
(32:09):
emotional it's gonna be that night. Do you take that
into account at all when you're trying to handicap that game? Yeah,
that was such a bed on our group chat. I
texted out how terrible that was. They were just having
the fifty year reunionmaculate reception, all the retiring his number
and one of those something he was a great guy.
I met Franco Harris uh at at at Um a
(32:31):
couple of different times in life, but the one that
stands out to me is the first Jimmy v Classic
in Carrie, North Carolina. I was there with my brother
with Dick Vital was so nice to us and who
also was nice. My god, spent so much time with
Franco Talco to him, what a nice guy, what a
nice man, Mike Adolts is to him and his family. Jesus,
I pray for him, Um, I pray for his family. Listen,
(32:54):
this is gonna be a very emotional game. This is
gonna be a very interesting situation on Christmas Eve. And uh,
you know, you pick something that I normally don't emotion
and stuff like that, you don't really think about being
part of the game. There's you know, uh, you think
it's priced in already. I may look at the money
line here. There's a couple of minus one thirties out
(33:15):
there and one thirty five. I may look at the
money line here on the Pittsburgh game. I think that uh,
people will lean towards Pittsburgh in this game based on that.
It's big news, by the way, So that's that's a
big thing. And it might be a good angle just
to lay the money line now, guys, and then come
back and maybe take the three. And I'll tell you
I use I don't like middling, but when you have
(33:36):
a low total like that thirty eight and a half
thirty eight and maybe a good middle opportunity in that
game to to to lay the dollar thirty so um,
and and come back with the with the plus whatever
you know, whateverever you can get on the other side.
So um, you picked out a very unique situation. I'm
not a trend guy. I'm not, uh, you know, I
(33:56):
hate trends over years and stuff and different things like that.
But this is, uh, you know, there's still something to
me too. By the way, So all the analytical models
and math programs, uh, analytics, all these different things are
supposed to are part of my game. I still have
that New Yorker and me, I'm still a little superstitious
(34:17):
about things. I can't help it. It's just it is
what it is. It's always gonna be that way for me.
So you you brought up an interesting thing about uh
this this game, and I'll be rooting for Pittsburgh in
this game, if not financially emotionally, Yeah no, me too.
Hey be sure to check out the new looking features
in the bed MGM app. It's fast and easy access
to the sports you love, whether it's live betting, the
(34:40):
Daily Lions Boost, or the cash out feature. New users
can use the code countdown for a special offer. All right,
make sure you check us out. We'll be off this
Sunday due to Christmas Day, but we will be back.
What'll that be Week seventeen? The following week on Sunday,
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran Bill Krackenburger from crack
(35:02):
Winds dot com sports handicapper, myself Brian though, will be
with you next Sunday in week seventeen after the holidays,
from ten am to one pm Eastern Time, getting you
all set for kickoff. In the meantime, enjoy Christmas Eve,
Christmas Day, all the family stuff, all the football, and
we'll catch you next week.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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