January 5, 2023 • 37 mins
Brian Noe previews the weeked in football with the sharpest minds in betting! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins to recap a legendary semifinal in the College Football Playoff and take a first look and the National Championship Game. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins to break down how to capitalize on Week 18 in the NFL. Plus, both of the guys have major prop bets on players who are looking to hit contract incentives in Week 18!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
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(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet mg aff Nah. We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no no Oh. Welcome in.
It's the Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast.
(00:45):
We'll have Jared Smith talking some college ball and a
little NFL. He's dipping his big tie. He's dipping his
right and left feet into the prop bet waters here
in week eight seem Also, we'll talk NFL with Bill
Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com sports handicapper uh djur
right there, he's fantastic. I'm Brian no Hey. New users,
(01:06):
download the bed MGM app today and use code count
countdown for a special offer. That's code countdown in the
bed MGM app. Let's welcome in Jared Smith. Before we
get to your Week eight teen props which you are.
You're giddy over here, Jared. You're doing back flips, you're
doing somersaults. Let's get into the College Football Championship matchup
(01:29):
TCU Georgia. Before we dive head first into that, how
about last week just the playoff games, instant classics between
TCU and Michigan Georgia outlasts Ohio State. I can't think
of a worse way to welcome in the new year
than being a diehard Buckeyes fan where it hits midnight
(01:51):
and a couple of seconds in the kick is not
even anywhere close. But if you're not a diehard Buckeyes fan,
all time historic stuff. What we saw on the playoff
games last week, it really was, um, a fantastic, fantastic game.
I think at the exact moment that that kick went
up was when the clock struck midnight on the East Coast,
(02:13):
Like it was eerie the timing of those moments. And
I think someone I saw on social media was like
a side by side of like the ball dropping in
New York City and and and the kick going up. Um,
I have no words for just how epic of of
a day that was, and and not only the George
Ohio s Day game, but but the game that took
(02:33):
place before it. And who needs like we what universe
do we want less of these college football playoff games?
I guess is kind of where I'm going here, And
it was. It was truly a great day and I
think Ohio States a lot better than the people. Remember
we haven't seen them in in over a month, and
I think that was the big theme is you forget
(02:53):
just how good and how stacked they are all over
the field, and if you played this game in mid October,
it's probably closer to a pick them And I think
that's kind of where the line should have been. And
when you look at what Georgia is, hey part of
a champion and the offense really that that's the biggest
key for me, Brian, is I think Georgia's miss You know,
the narratives wrong on Georgia. They're not a defensive team
(03:15):
this year. They're an offensive team. And their offense is
the reason why they were able to come back and
win that game. Yeah, their pass rush was on a
milk carton against Ohio State. You've got a credit Ohio
State's offensive line. They were tremendous. But where was Georgia's
pass rush? And they had no answers in the secondary.
So if you spin it forward and look at the
matchup against TCU, can TCU protect Max Duggan as well
(03:40):
as Ohio State protected c J. Stroud. If tc you
can do that, they're in business with Quinton Johnston. You
can air it out there. Quinton Johnston went crazy against
Michigan six catches for a buck sixty three and a touchdown.
I don't know if the pass rush is gonna be
as amnemic for the Bulldogs in this matchup, and it
makes me one there with TCU beating Michigan. You look
(04:03):
at what Max Duggan did passing the football, Jared a
couple of interceptions, had more in completions than completions. That's
not gonna be nearly enough against Georgia. So I think
Max Duggan's gotta play a lot better against the Bulldogs. Absolutely,
and he he made like Max is one of those
(04:23):
guys that I think down to down doesn't impress you,
but he's a guy that comes up big in big spots.
He has that Mahomes quality to him where he can
make kind of chicken salad at a chicken excrement to
play is breaking down receiver scrambling. He's getting flushed out
of the pocket and instead of panicking and throwing it
into the stands, are just running and taking the sack.
(04:45):
He's able to find the open man in those really
difficult spots and listen he is. I think George's pass
rush is going to have an easier time. I think
the trench game here will look a lot differently than
it does than it did in the art Ohio State game.
We again, we forget just how talented Ohio States players
are all over the field, five star kids. TCU does
(05:08):
not have that luxury. In fact, Sonny Dike said, um
after the game, and I didn't even realize this. They
only had four players who had ever played in a
bowl game before before that semifinal game, Like that's how
inexperienced and just I don't want to say not talented,
because of course at this level they've made it to
the title game, they're talented. But the step up in
(05:28):
class from tcut Ohio State in terms of again the
first and second stringers, the depth, it's it's massive, and
I don't think Michigan did a good job taking advantage
of it. We we we heard that quote, um from
the linebackers said, you know once once they went into
their bag and they started, you know, trying to run
trick plays. We knew we had them. I don't think
George's gonna worry about that. They're just gonna run their offense.
(05:50):
And I think Moncan is gonna do a really good
job of calling plays. And I have very little doubt
that we are going to see a very good Georgia
offense performance in this game. The question is and their defense,
which you know, looked a little bit shaky against the
House State, can they hold up and cover thirteen points bread.
I think that's the big question in this game from
a betting standpoint. Yeah, I just wonder. And I try
(06:10):
not to think about the previous game too much, because
you know this, styles make fights. It's how your match
up against your current opponent. But I can't help but
think a little bit about TCU. They played well, don't
get me wrong, but greatly assisted by Michigan. Two pick
six is uh dropped are a fumble at the goal
(06:31):
line when you should have just snuck it in right
like the Philly special at the beginning of the game
when it was scoreless. That was failed. It's just like,
what was Michigan doing. And I just wonder if if
Georgia's offense, led by Stetson Bennett, who threw for three
against Ohio State, if they aren't greatly assisting TCU, this
(06:54):
game could get ugly pretty fast. Totally agree. And again,
you you look at what Georgia is offensively right now,
and even in Michigan's squalor and they're you know, beating themselves.
They still managed to score forty plus in this game
and it was still down to the wire last second
(07:15):
at the end of the day. Though, I give TCU
a ton of credit and and a lot of people.
I have a lot of friends that were really hot
and heavy on Michigan, and I understand why. I at
seven and a half, I I understand why after that
number comes down a little bit, maybe if you're able
to get a seven somewhere, you're you're you're you're bullish
on the Wolverines, and a lot of them were very upset,
and people get mad after they lose bets, but a
(07:35):
lot of it was Michigan through that game away. You
have to give TCU a little bit of credit because
Michigan had multiple opportunities. They got the margin back to
one score twice in the second half, early third quarter
and early fourth quarter, and on both occasions TCU marched
right down the field on the next drive and scored
a touchdown. So again the guts and just the grittiness
(07:57):
of this TCU offense. We they were a thousand to one.
I've heard two d one floated around here in Vegas.
One of the sports books had them at one thousand
to one to win the National Championship before the season,
and here they are in the Natty. I love that
they were picked to finish seventh in the Big Twelve.
And the funny thing is they're not even twelve teams
(08:18):
in the Big twelve dead they were picked the finish
seventh out of ten. Is it changing again? Right? Our
teams leaving here? And yeah, we got like half the
act going in there. I it's can we get rid
of conferences already and get away from this ridiculous format
and just let these guys pick the teams every year
for the playoff and that's the only way to be
great teams. Do you have a lean We look at
(08:39):
the line for this We've got what George has favored
by twelve and a half. The total is sixty two
and a half. It's funny, I think it after the
semifinal games, sixty two and a half feels like an
Army Navy total, you know what I mean, like sixty
two and a half. They might have that midway through
the third quarter. Not every game is gonna play out
like that. I think Georgia wins and covers. I now,
(09:02):
does that mean the back door won't be open at
some point and we're not gonna have spread drama? I'm
sure we will. I doubt it's going to be a
twenty eight point drubbing where in the final ten minutes
there's literally no chance that TCU can cover. I think
there's I think TCU will have their moments in this game.
But it kind of reminds me of what we see
(09:23):
in the semifinals when that fourth team I remember at
Washington or Cincinnati or Michigan State plays Alabama, you know,
and you see just the big gap in talent, and
and then if that top team executes, the gap becomes
even more you know, wide, And that's I think what
(09:44):
we're gonna see if if Georgia comes out strong and
runs their offense effectively, and they score early, and they
get out to an early lead and they put pressure
on TCU. I just I don't think they have the
ability to stop Georgia's offense consistently. So TCUs gonna have
to get a couple of turnovers and and make some
big plays because I think if it's just a down
(10:06):
to down football game and Georgia just matriculates, I don't
see how TCUs defense gets a lot of stops in
this game. Yeah, I think it's gonna feel like an
even greater let down after those classic semifinal games. If
this isn't a close game, I'm really hoping it's a
great game. We've been so far. We've had the most
close playoff games already, and just the first two. I mean,
(10:27):
anything anything after this is gravy after what we saw
last That was probably the best Saturday of college football
I can ever remember. It was off the charts, and
a lot of great non playoff bowl games too, some
close ones there. I um, I need to belly ache
for a second, Jared before we get to your Week
eight team prop plays, which I'm very excited about just
a brief minute, just real fast here. I look over
(10:49):
at the FCS Championship game, okay, North Dakota State, South
Dakota State, and I'm like, oh, yeah, when when's uh,
when's that game being played? Well, it would be Sunday,
And okay, I'm imediately I start thinking, Sunday at two
pm Eastern time, head to head with eight NFL games?
What in the holy hell are you guys thinking, like,
(11:12):
play this game on Friday Saturday. I watched it from
beginning to end. I'm not going to see a play
of this freaking game. Now. Yeah, that doesn't make any sense.
I don't even have a response that I can logically say. Why, Like,
there's a perfect there's an ideal window open. It's Saturday
at one pm Eastern, Yes, yes, absolutely right, College Raiders game,
(11:35):
Yes perfect. Are you sure it's not a typo in
the game's not being played Saturday at that time. That
is the most absurd thing I've ever heard in my life.
That's Sunday at two pm. That is doing that is
assinin It's really bad. But we moved from that to
something that's not a shamous about that game this week, though,
(11:56):
on the show. Yeah, oh yeah, we definitely will your
week eight team prop plays. You are, you know, like
that eight year old that runs like it's Christmas morning
time to open present, like you have that child still
lives inside of you because of Week eight teen prop bets.
Over here, let's start with the Chiefs and Raidas. This
(12:17):
is one of your prop plays. What do you like
in this matchup? First of all, I'm excited on Saturday
because we're gonna, obviously now with college football season ending,
start to do a lot more transitioning into the NFL.
And this week, particularly the time slot that we are
in Saturday morning leading into the Saturday afternoon and Sunday games,
(12:39):
it's like the ideal betting window because it's when all
the prop numbers start to get released. We're recording this
on a Thursday morning, We're starting to see some of
them get released for Saturday's games and then into Sunday.
Mahomes needs four hundred and thirty passing yards too. I
believe either pass or tie, or you know, get past
Peyton Manning single season record, which is seventy seven. His
(13:00):
passing yards prop is around three nineteen ish, and again
that's the ideal number because you know he's gonna be
gunning for the record. First of all, he gets a
Raider's defense that's been terrible this year. They gave up
a bunch of points to brock Purty last week, and
the number he needs is so much higher. I think
the sense of urgency will squarely be there. And I
(13:21):
like the over for this game too, just because I
think the Raiders offense looked okay with Jared stood him.
So this game has the makings. With Kansas City needing
to win to clinch that top seed, I think the
direction the NFL is going to go in is going
to just let the Bengals Bills games stay postpone and
they will let win percentage determined seating. That means this
game means a lot for the Chiefs to you know,
for home field. So this is like an absolute go
(13:44):
zone for me. Mahome's over passing yards prop anywhere in
the three teen range is a bet. And the other
one that you are incredibly excited about Titans Jaguars the
nightcap on Saturday for the a f C South. There
are incentives galore Evan Ingram, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, but
(14:07):
there is one man that was just mentioned that you
have both eyes directly on. Who is that guy, Jared.
I've heard a lot about Jones and Kirk this week.
They've already earned a lot of incentives in their contracts,
and they absolutely will be motivated to earn more this week.
But I haven't seen a lot of news on Ingram.
Ingram is another guy that's already earned six hundred thousand
(14:27):
dollars because he's eclipped his receiving yards six hundred yard number.
But now if he gets to excuse me, seven hundred number. Now,
if he gets to eight hundred, he gets another two
hundred thousand, and he's sixty one yards away from that.
And the reason why this number is great is because
it is, first of all, it's relatively low. Second of all,
his prop number is also in the mid forties, and
(14:48):
that is a perfect little gap between what he needs
and what his prop number is. So I feel very
comfortable here. The final wrinkle, which is what makes Ingram,
in my opinion, I meant sleep, more valuable than Jones
and Kirk. Of those three guys, only Ingram's contract expires
this season. Remember, he bet on himself this off season.
He signed the one year deal. Wasn't getting a lot
(15:10):
of love from a lot of places, say hey, I'm
gonna better myself and I'm gonna sign a one year deal. Well,
now that adds even more urgency to this situation because
unlike Jones and Kirk, who can create you know, other
roster and and workout bonuses in the off season, a
lot of times when guys get close to their contract
incentive numbers at the end of the year and they
don't reach them, the agents will then reach out to
(15:32):
the team and say, hey, we're coming back next year,
let's you know, roll this bonus over and you know,
reallocate and repurpose it into a workout or and incentive
bonus down the road. You don't have that option with
Ingram because his contract is expiring. So I think that
makes his number just I would say it's probably going
to be my largest individual wager of the NFL season
so far over Evan Ingram receiving yards. And I strongly
(15:55):
recommend betting that number now before it gets to sixty
one and it loses all of its value. Can we
do the ladder with Ingram? There are there any ladder
options over here? You know, that's a good idea, you
know in game. No, he's always thinking. I'm just thinking,
then we would we would get a fifty and then
(16:19):
maybe a sixty would be the way to play it
if we can get it. But not a lot of
sports books offer that. And another thing about these so
for the contract incentive props. The last couple of years,
as gambling has become more popular and the props, obviously
this has become a lot more public, and the numbers
will fluctuate very quickly. So if you see one you like,
(16:40):
don't hesitate to bet it because the numbers will move
and the sports books are aware and they will adjust accordingly.
No great stuff. Hey, catch us on Saturday. Countdown to
Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're on Fox Sports Radio.
Jared Smith will be with us, Rich Ornberger, Penn State,
All American. Always a good time myself, Brian No, that's
nine am them until noon Eastern time on Saturday. Get
(17:03):
you all set for Week eighteen. Little college football, maybe
a little college troops. We're gonna get nutty. So catch
us then earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing into
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bet MGM the King of Sports Books. All right, I
want to welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handy
(17:26):
Kapper from crack wins dot Com joining us here on
the podcast. Crack Um, I don't know, it's like I'm
talking to someone else here. As soon as you popped
on before we started recording, you gave me some sides.
I'm like, Crack, do you have a feature? Are you
feeling you're normally a total guy? You've given me some
(17:46):
sides here today. You were about to call me quack wins,
which I actually like that better. I may change the
whole organization, so quack wins dot com. Yes, very little
quacky this weekend. I'm giving you sides because there's playoff
implications and sometimes books don't catch certain things. And uh,
(18:08):
yesterday I bet a couple of things from one was
I bet a teaser with Denver Denver plus seven and
a half and the Bengals minus one a six point teaser. Uh,
you gotta get over the seven, and then you can't
get this anymore. It started moving it's correlated because if
the Bengals win, which they're supposed to win seven point favorites,
the Chargers will sit their starters, so um, it is
(18:30):
supposed to win. So that that's the situation there, and
I'm sorry Cincinnati's supposed to win obviously. But you know, conversely,
you can actually bet the other way to You can
bet Ravens money line and Chargers money line, so it's
kind of interesting and you can do both of them
and have some fun with them and you get back
some good returns. Uh. But I think that my teaser
(18:53):
looks better. But you can actually still bet the parley.
If I had a bet one thing, I probably bet
the Bengals money line about three to one there with
Denver Lane and one quarter comes back plus one thirty
five to one forty five, compending on where you're betting it.
I think that's a pretty good money line parlay. And
you know I believe it or not. I don't. I
(19:14):
never talked about hedging. It's real simple. If you bet that.
Let's say about that for I'll use small terms, A
hundred dollars. If you bet it for a hundred dollars
and you get back a hundred and thirty five. If
Cincinnati wins, you get back a hundred and thirty five
If um, if your second leg of your parley Denver wins,
you can actually hedge that with a Chargers bet plus two. Um,
(19:38):
you know, have a little bolt, actually go and lock
up some money and still have a shot in the middle.
So there's a couple of different things you get do.
Or you can bet a Chargers money line. Uh, you
know taking now you're taking plus money on both sides.
You're you're taking you know, plus one fifteen on one side,
plus one thirty five on the other side. That's a
good scenario. I bet I bet many, many, many thousands
(19:59):
of dollars on this. So, um, it's it's a it's
a good situation you have there. You know, we have
situations here where there must win teams and you know that,
you know, that's why I wanted to get to next.
Crack is upstream. From time to time, you like to
go against the grain and this is something that you
love doing where if you look at these must win
(20:21):
spots and you can remember, if you're a diehard NFL fan,
there are so many times last year Indianapolis had to
win against Jacksonville and they got worked, they got shut out.
Um and uh, well I don't know if they got
shut up, but they got crushed in that game. And uh,
it happens time and time again. There's a team that
has nothing to play for and they're Lucy Goosey. The
(20:41):
team has everything on the line and they're tight and
they just can't get out of their own way. You
see any opportunities this week for something like that. Listen,
it's real simple. I want to bettle. I want to
bet against all the must wins. This goes goes back
at that gate here. Literally, uh, just blindly betting against
the must win teams. You have an overinflated line normally, Um,
(21:06):
I don't really see that in a Seattle game. Now
Seattle played the Rams earlier in the season, the line
was more so I I don't see that that that situation,
But there's a lot of situations where it's already baked
into the line. I mean, Um, the Philadelphia given the
Giants fourteen, I mean, I I know the Giants are gonna,
you know, don't need the game because they're already in
the playoffs and it doesn't improve them. Um, Philadelphia does
(21:30):
need the game to the division, but they needed the
last couple of games for the division, and you know,
with the Minshoe situation there, I I'm not even of
Hurts is gonna you know, he did throw some snaps yesterday,
so he did throw some passes I've seen. Uh, you
know what, one thing I'll say, real fast crack is
one of the things that makes Philly so special this
(21:50):
season is Jalen Hurts running ability. And if he's not,
he's not gonna be running the same way. And that's
a bit of their whole approach. So I think you
got to keep that in mind if you're thinking about
getting in on the side between the Giants and Philly
in that one. Well, and even better, the Giants have
a history and I know it's different operational wise, different coach,
(22:12):
different thing. I think the Giants have a history of
playing the situation against Brady years ago, they played all
their starters even though they were they didn't need the game,
and I think the same situation here. I think the
ball is gonna uh play his starters at least for
the first half. So I'm looking at a Giant's first half.
(22:32):
Bet I may even be looking at a Giants plus
four team which is widely available, but Giants, uh, you know,
not not only for the game. I think the first
half is a good bet here, and again only one
or two sports books have that right now, And um,
I want to go bet it, yes said, and they
wanted to give me like a ridiculous low bet on
the first half, so that line will come come up
(22:53):
on the next couple of days. I think it's a
good bet. Also, I think conversely that Philadelphia is a
good bet in the third quarter. I think that if
they do come out the Giants and play that all
those starters in their first half to maybe pull the
range back a little bit in the third quarter, get
some eyeballs on some other guys. The oh they're doing
some of the backups in case they do need them
for the playoffs. And I think Philadelphia third quarter is
(23:16):
probably a good bettles which some of the sites actually
you could bet third quarter right now, so um, this
will be up though pregame that you could bet the
third quarter Philly. So we have some really good interesting
scenarios and this is this being one of them. This weekend. Uh,
Philadelphia really hasn't shown nothing with their backup, which we
(23:36):
were kind of expecting them to, you know, play a
little bit better, and uh, I mean to lose to
the Saints like they did last week. It was really disgusting. Uh,
So we'll see what happens. Yeah. One thing I wanted
to throw at you, Crack is uh the situation with
Damar Hamlin and and hang with me for a second,
because this will make sense. It will apply to uh
(23:57):
some other things here. But the build safety went down
against the Bengals, suffered a cardiac arrest. The administered CPR
rushed him off in the ambulance to the hospital. He's
making great progress, thank god that he's getting better. And
of complete secondary importance is now we look at the
(24:18):
impact on the schedule, and I'm curious what the NFL
is going to do with that Bill's Bengals game. Did
they just say we're not going to make it up.
Do they think about delaying the playoffs by a week
and getting that game in because it has a lot
to do with who's gonna be the one seed, who's two,
(24:39):
who's three. That's really interesting to me because we have
not heard a ruling of that at all. Let's just say,
for the sake of argument, the NFL says we're gonna
make this game up, We're gonna resume play next week. Well,
then a game like Giants Philly is a lot more
interesting because now, all of a sudden, everybody would have
(24:59):
a bye week essentially, right, So you might see a
team like the Giants play their starters a little bit longer.
If that's the scenario, I don't expect it to be
the scenario. The NFL is probably gonna say, we're not
gonna make that game up, We're not gonna resume it.
We're just gonna do the standings based on percentage points
and all that type of stuff. But it's just something
in the back of my mind. With that detail not
(25:21):
being ironed out yet, I think it could potentially have
an impact on on these games in Week eighteen and
how they play out and who plays and who rests
and all those sorts of things. Yeah, you know, they
already said that they're in the league or already said
it would not resume their suspended game this week. So
with the player next week, we could it be resumed
(25:42):
next week. There's a small window to fit in another
game before the wild card matchups on the fourteenth. On Saturday,
the fourteen. There's a small window. I you know, I
just don't know if that's going to happen. Um, I
really don't, but I would think I would think they
are going to make up the game. If I had
(26:03):
a bet on it, I think they're gonna make up
the game. But you know, from a from a betting standpoint,
all these people that bet mad think if you bet
over Bill season wins or over Bangal season wins, can't
you got an easy winner and you don't get paid
because they have to play every game. And conversely, how
about the guys that bet the under and throw the
(26:25):
tickets away. Oh it's this is just like betting baseball.
It's when you bet the over of the Rangers Orioles
game or whatever and they've got nineteen runs and it
gets rained out in the seventh inning and you don't
get paid. It's the worst. Yeah, I mean, they can actually,
if they cannot find another date for the game, they
(26:46):
might decide to drop it and just call it a tie.
I mean it literally could be a non game or
you know whatever. And based on their their record or
final records are based on sixteen games rather than seventeen,
So I think that's what's gonna happen, Cracked Past. I
know someone who has amount of money on the over.
I don't think they're going to resume that game, and
they're probably gonna rule it a tie. I think that's
(27:08):
probably the way it's gonna go. But I think that
needs to be set in stone before Week eight team.
You know, like we should know the scenario going right
about that team, that we should know about that. Both
teams should know about that. Yes, then the rest of
the league, the rest of the because if you if
you don't know if the game could be resumed next
(27:30):
week and then the playoffs begin the following week, that's
a huge piece of information and might determine how you
approach Week eight team. Yeah yeah, yeah. But the best
thing out of all of this is is this kid
is showing about it's a miracle. Well that's this is
none of the next scenarios, None of it would matter
(27:51):
if if he wasn't improving, that's the whole thing, Like,
that's what matters most. But because he is improving, then
we can start to look at what the scenario might be.
There's something else you're looking at here, Crack. We look
at Saturday night a f C South on the line
for the Titans and Jags. What are you thinking here
in the first half? But I think they're gonna come
(28:12):
out pumped up in that first half Jack's, Tennessee. I
think we're gonna see some points here. I like the
over over twenty in the first half there, and it's
available almost everywhere. Still, I think we're gonna see a
lot of points and uh, hopefully. I mean, I'm thinking
we're gonna be watching that game together. But who knows.
I don't know where we're gonna be Saturday night. Yeah,
you're gonna be there Saturday. Well, I'm gonna be in
(28:32):
Cincinnati with you there. I didn't know you were getting
in town that now. Yeah, I'm coming out to be
watching this game. We might be eating shrimp and maybe
some salmon. I don't know, maybe some steak. We get
down with some steak as well. Crack. I'm up for
any of that. This will be it'll be a fun time.
I look forward to it. But yeah, Jacksonville, Tennessee over
first half, looking for some points there, Uh, some fireworks
(28:54):
hopefully in the first half there. And the other game
really doesn't interest in me. The Vegas Kansas City game. Um,
you know again, look look at last week again, I mean,
look look at the whenever you see these big points
spreads this year, it's unbelievable taking the points. What what?
What has happened this year? This might be the number
one year on record that to take double digits here,
I'll say nine or more points underdog. Uh. They they
(29:17):
have done unbelievable this year. So we have a couple
of situations this weekend. Um, you know the sanfran Arizona,
the Philly Jet Philly and the Giants. Um, I mean
they're ugly teams though Arizona, God, I would hate to
even think about betting them. But this situation situation is
there too. So and I would say Kansas City of
Vegas in Vegas, everyone that I know, I mean everyone
(29:40):
asked me to get them tickets to this game. Bill,
could you get me tickets to a Raiders game? I'd
like to get the Kansas City one. Yeah, sure, a right, problem, Yeah,
no problem, But that's what they want. That's the game
everyone's going to. So this will be and I talk
about it on our Sunday show Countdown the Kickoff all time.
So this crowd, well probably be fifty fifty Kansas City
(30:02):
fansies in Vegas fans because you know, unfortunately people a
lot of people are fair weather fans to how the
team's doing. And uh so you may see more Kansas
City jerseys than Vegas jersey. By the way, crack, I
wanted to pick your brain here with the week eight
teen prop bets, and you love this week because they
are incentives on the line and sometimes you can cash
(30:22):
in on that as well, not just a player, but
it's situational I think as well. Where I'll give you
a game, an example where Jacksonville. Okay, so Jacksonville Saturday night,
they've got a chance to win the division against the Titans.
Za Jones wide receiver. He needs receiving yards to trigger
a bonus that would be half a million dollars if
(30:44):
he can get to nine d receiving yards for the season.
How do you think about that, because going into the game,
that's not even on their radar that we hey, we
need to get Za Jones his ninety eight yards. They
give a rats asked about that. They're about winning the
a f C South. Should the opportunity present itself and
they're winning comfortably, Yeah, maybe they target Za Jones. So
(31:06):
how do you as a better think about incentive based
props heading into week eighteen, depending on the situation specifically, Well, alright,
you open the can of worms here. I didn't. We
talked a little bit before the show. I didn't mention
this one because I'm just I haven't seen it yet,
That's why. But all right, we'll go to it. He
(31:26):
also needs two catches for two, so I like to go.
I like to to catch one more than the yards one.
So if if if someone has that up, and sometimes
these places put this up. You look at some of
the sports books, they'll have a wide array of of
wide receivers and running back secondary running backs. So, uh
that that's a very good bet to make incentive base
(31:48):
proposition bets. Boy, this is this will be a fun week. Uh,
this is. This is a fun week to bet a
lot of these things. So, yeah, you're you're, you're, you're
spot on about Za Jones And that's the two different
bonuses he needs. And if we can find that, I
think it's a really good bet. You got your eye
on tight end Tyler Higbee. Let us know about this crack.
He needs thirteen yards. They hit a half a million
(32:10):
dollar bonus. Um. You know he he does come up
on the on the prop sheets too, but you know
he actually failed to do this in four of his
last six games. However, they might not have targeted him
as much, but he played over the snaps. I was
reading some some uh an article about this. Um, you know,
I think he easily goes over to thirteen yards this
(32:32):
week if they have that up there, I will be
betting this with both hands for sure. Yeah yeah, yeah,
Rams against the Seahawks, uh this weekend. So it's a base.
It must be like, Okay, this is ridiculous. Let's get
the ball to Higbee this time. Good lord. The only
thing is it might be too high though, Brian Moore,
I think about it. If if they have him up
at like thirty yards, you have to be careful many
(32:54):
yards they have. You know, he'll get his thirteen yards
and then take the money to the bench. Uh man,
that would be you're right though. Yeah, Okay, we got
hi miss fourteen. We're good. Nothing nothing more to see here.
Put him on ice. Yeah, how about this. Let's just
hit on the Sunday night game here, real fast crack
Lions at the Packers Packers have been playing much better lately.
(33:17):
They throttled the Vikings last week. They're on a winning streak.
Lions have been playing very well. Um, outside of a
setback against the Panthers a couple of weeks ago, but
they have been playing much better football. What do you
see in that game? Well, listen, the Lions need a
ton of help. They need a win over Green Bay
plus a Seattle loss or a tie against the Rams. Uh.
(33:39):
You know, and but there's there's other ways to get
into It's a six sick way. But like they need
a couple of ties and then uh, and then they
can also get in. But that's the way they get
in here. But I'll tell you what, I don't care
if they don't even need the game. I want to
tell you I think Detroit's gonna play them tough. I
think this line may even go up a little bit
if we can get a six here. I think I
(34:00):
may this This may be the number one week of
the year. I bet some sides, so um, I don't
do a lot of sides, but this, this may be
one of my sides. This week will be uh betting
on the Lions old school rival. Uh. And you know,
Detroit played. They played so good in the middle of
the year. I I don't they kind of fell apart
a little bit. And uh, like I said, they were
(34:22):
scoring thirty forty points. Again, they were. They were played
so good. They're played so tight against the spread. My god,
this goes back even last season. They were so tight
against the spread. There they were. They were in every
game covering like crazy, and uh kind of let off
let off the gas here and and like the third Um,
I'm gonna say that the third quarter of the year. Um,
(34:44):
And I just think that this is a good situation
for them. Though here I'm still not sold on green
Bay at all. You know, they really looked bad were
out the season. Even though they have looked good to
let it looked a little better in the last few weeks.
I'll look at Detroit here as I'll be on a
plane that night, but I'd be probably having Detroit. I've
been on Detroit. Yeah, well they listen. Detroit's been seven
(35:07):
and two down the stretch to their losses. One was
the Thanksgiving Day game against the Bills where they played
them very tough. It's what stands out is that game
against Carolina where Carolina rushes for a franchise record that's
on the crown. It's like I think about I'm not
disagreeing with you. The Lions plus the points might be
the right side in this matchup. But if you're looking
(35:29):
at props, i'd look directly at Aaron Jones because what's
Detroit gonna do against the rush? And you know Green
Bay is gonna pound the rock. So I would look
to Aaron Jones and a J. Dillon depending on what
their props are heading into this game. If it's too high,
I'm gonna stay away. But if you can get a
line that's legit, that's doable, they're just gonna keep feeding
(35:52):
those guys because, man, you look at that Green Bay
rushing attack last week against Minnesota, I would expect something
very sim or against Detroit, who's having all kinds of
trouble against the rush. Yeah, no, you're you're you're right.
And there's also a guy, um, I'm an outside linebacker,
Preston Smith that has a really interesting incentive that um,
(36:13):
someone else sent me this, but I don't know how
I can more. I don't know how kind of monetize
monetize this. Preston Smith needs one and a half sacks
to earn a million bucks. So um he had to
pressures week nine Verse Detroit. So that's just just a
little different take on something there. Sometimes they do have
(36:33):
over under on some of the defense. Some of the
sites really put some crazy stuff up. So that's something else.
But that should that that that really gives us a
real nice end cap to our NFL regular season. As
long as the Bengals game doesn't get replayed, that that
should be an interesting game on on Sunday night. Look
forward to it. Some good things this week. I'm sure
(36:53):
I'll have some extra stuff. I'll have some great stuff
on our Sunday show for some proposition bets that will
still be there. There's gonna be a lot of low
hanging fruit in the sports books this week. Very much
looking forward to it. Hey be sure to check out
the new looking features in the bed MGM app. It's
fast and easy access to the sports you love, whether
it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the cash
(37:13):
out feature. New users can use the code countdown for
a special offer. As Crack said, right there, catch us
on Sunday. Count Down to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Bill Crackenburger with us from crack wins dot com, not
quack wins dot com, crack wins dot com. Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, myself Brian Now will be live
(37:35):
in Cincinnati. Welcome to betting Ohio. Yes, we will be
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Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet mg aff Nah. We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no no Oh. Welcome in.
It's the Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast.
(00:45):
We'll have Jared Smith talking some college ball and a
little NFL. He's dipping his big tie. He's dipping his
right and left feet into the prop bet waters here
in week eight seem Also, we'll talk NFL with Bill
Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com sports handicapper uh djur
right there, he's fantastic. I'm Brian no Hey. New users,
(01:06):
download the bed MGM app today and use code count
countdown for a special offer. That's code countdown in the
bed MGM app. Let's welcome in Jared Smith. Before we
get to your Week eight teen props which you are.
You're giddy over here, Jared. You're doing back flips, you're
doing somersaults. Let's get into the College Football Championship matchup
(01:29):
TCU Georgia. Before we dive head first into that, how
about last week just the playoff games, instant classics between
TCU and Michigan Georgia outlasts Ohio State. I can't think
of a worse way to welcome in the new year
than being a diehard Buckeyes fan where it hits midnight
(01:51):
and a couple of seconds in the kick is not
even anywhere close. But if you're not a diehard Buckeyes fan,
all time historic stuff. What we saw on the playoff
games last week, it really was, um, a fantastic, fantastic game.
I think at the exact moment that that kick went
up was when the clock struck midnight on the East Coast,
(02:13):
Like it was eerie the timing of those moments. And
I think someone I saw on social media was like
a side by side of like the ball dropping in
New York City and and and the kick going up. Um,
I have no words for just how epic of of
a day that was, and and not only the George
Ohio s Day game, but but the game that took
(02:33):
place before it. And who needs like we what universe
do we want less of these college football playoff games?
I guess is kind of where I'm going here, And
it was. It was truly a great day and I
think Ohio States a lot better than the people. Remember
we haven't seen them in in over a month, and
I think that was the big theme is you forget
(02:53):
just how good and how stacked they are all over
the field, and if you played this game in mid October,
it's probably closer to a pick them And I think
that's kind of where the line should have been. And
when you look at what Georgia is, hey part of
a champion and the offense really that that's the biggest
key for me, Brian, is I think Georgia's miss You know,
the narratives wrong on Georgia. They're not a defensive team
(03:15):
this year. They're an offensive team. And their offense is
the reason why they were able to come back and
win that game. Yeah, their pass rush was on a
milk carton against Ohio State. You've got a credit Ohio
State's offensive line. They were tremendous. But where was Georgia's
pass rush? And they had no answers in the secondary.
So if you spin it forward and look at the
matchup against TCU, can TCU protect Max Duggan as well
(03:40):
as Ohio State protected c J. Stroud. If tc you
can do that, they're in business with Quinton Johnston. You
can air it out there. Quinton Johnston went crazy against
Michigan six catches for a buck sixty three and a touchdown.
I don't know if the pass rush is gonna be
as amnemic for the Bulldogs in this matchup, and it
makes me one there with TCU beating Michigan. You look
(04:03):
at what Max Duggan did passing the football, Jared a
couple of interceptions, had more in completions than completions. That's
not gonna be nearly enough against Georgia. So I think
Max Duggan's gotta play a lot better against the Bulldogs. Absolutely,
and he he made like Max is one of those
(04:23):
guys that I think down to down doesn't impress you,
but he's a guy that comes up big in big spots.
He has that Mahomes quality to him where he can
make kind of chicken salad at a chicken excrement to
play is breaking down receiver scrambling. He's getting flushed out
of the pocket and instead of panicking and throwing it
into the stands, are just running and taking the sack.
(04:45):
He's able to find the open man in those really
difficult spots and listen he is. I think George's pass
rush is going to have an easier time. I think
the trench game here will look a lot differently than
it does than it did in the art Ohio State game.
We again, we forget just how talented Ohio States players
are all over the field, five star kids. TCU does
(05:08):
not have that luxury. In fact, Sonny Dike said, um
after the game, and I didn't even realize this. They
only had four players who had ever played in a
bowl game before before that semifinal game, Like that's how
inexperienced and just I don't want to say not talented,
because of course at this level they've made it to
the title game, they're talented. But the step up in
(05:28):
class from tcut Ohio State in terms of again the
first and second stringers, the depth, it's it's massive, and
I don't think Michigan did a good job taking advantage
of it. We we we heard that quote, um from
the linebackers said, you know once once they went into
their bag and they started, you know, trying to run
trick plays. We knew we had them. I don't think
George's gonna worry about that. They're just gonna run their offense.
(05:50):
And I think Moncan is gonna do a really good
job of calling plays. And I have very little doubt
that we are going to see a very good Georgia
offense performance in this game. The question is and their defense,
which you know, looked a little bit shaky against the
House State, can they hold up and cover thirteen points bread.
I think that's the big question in this game from
a betting standpoint. Yeah, I just wonder. And I try
(06:10):
not to think about the previous game too much, because
you know this, styles make fights. It's how your match
up against your current opponent. But I can't help but
think a little bit about TCU. They played well, don't
get me wrong, but greatly assisted by Michigan. Two pick
six is uh dropped are a fumble at the goal
(06:31):
line when you should have just snuck it in right
like the Philly special at the beginning of the game
when it was scoreless. That was failed. It's just like,
what was Michigan doing. And I just wonder if if
Georgia's offense, led by Stetson Bennett, who threw for three
against Ohio State, if they aren't greatly assisting TCU, this
(06:54):
game could get ugly pretty fast. Totally agree. And again,
you you look at what Georgia is offensively right now,
and even in Michigan's squalor and they're you know, beating themselves.
They still managed to score forty plus in this game
and it was still down to the wire last second
(07:15):
at the end of the day. Though, I give TCU
a ton of credit and and a lot of people.
I have a lot of friends that were really hot
and heavy on Michigan, and I understand why. I at
seven and a half, I I understand why after that
number comes down a little bit, maybe if you're able
to get a seven somewhere, you're you're you're you're bullish
on the Wolverines, and a lot of them were very upset,
and people get mad after they lose bets, but a
(07:35):
lot of it was Michigan through that game away. You
have to give TCU a little bit of credit because
Michigan had multiple opportunities. They got the margin back to
one score twice in the second half, early third quarter
and early fourth quarter, and on both occasions TCU marched
right down the field on the next drive and scored
a touchdown. So again the guts and just the grittiness
(07:57):
of this TCU offense. We they were a thousand to one.
I've heard two d one floated around here in Vegas.
One of the sports books had them at one thousand
to one to win the National Championship before the season,
and here they are in the Natty. I love that
they were picked to finish seventh in the Big Twelve.
And the funny thing is they're not even twelve teams
(08:18):
in the Big twelve dead they were picked the finish
seventh out of ten. Is it changing again? Right? Our
teams leaving here? And yeah, we got like half the
act going in there. I it's can we get rid
of conferences already and get away from this ridiculous format
and just let these guys pick the teams every year
for the playoff and that's the only way to be
great teams. Do you have a lean We look at
(08:39):
the line for this We've got what George has favored
by twelve and a half. The total is sixty two
and a half. It's funny, I think it after the
semifinal games, sixty two and a half feels like an
Army Navy total, you know what I mean, like sixty
two and a half. They might have that midway through
the third quarter. Not every game is gonna play out
like that. I think Georgia wins and covers. I now,
(09:02):
does that mean the back door won't be open at
some point and we're not gonna have spread drama? I'm
sure we will. I doubt it's going to be a
twenty eight point drubbing where in the final ten minutes
there's literally no chance that TCU can cover. I think
there's I think TCU will have their moments in this game.
But it kind of reminds me of what we see
(09:23):
in the semifinals when that fourth team I remember at
Washington or Cincinnati or Michigan State plays Alabama, you know,
and you see just the big gap in talent, and
and then if that top team executes, the gap becomes
even more you know, wide, And that's I think what
(09:44):
we're gonna see if if Georgia comes out strong and
runs their offense effectively, and they score early, and they
get out to an early lead and they put pressure
on TCU. I just I don't think they have the
ability to stop Georgia's offense consistently. So TCUs gonna have
to get a couple of turnovers and and make some
big plays because I think if it's just a down
(10:06):
to down football game and Georgia just matriculates, I don't
see how TCUs defense gets a lot of stops in
this game. Yeah, I think it's gonna feel like an
even greater let down after those classic semifinal games. If
this isn't a close game, I'm really hoping it's a
great game. We've been so far. We've had the most
close playoff games already, and just the first two. I mean,
(10:27):
anything anything after this is gravy after what we saw
last That was probably the best Saturday of college football
I can ever remember. It was off the charts, and
a lot of great non playoff bowl games too, some
close ones there. I um, I need to belly ache
for a second, Jared before we get to your Week
eight team prop plays, which I'm very excited about just
a brief minute, just real fast here. I look over
(10:49):
at the FCS Championship game, okay, North Dakota State, South
Dakota State, and I'm like, oh, yeah, when when's uh,
when's that game being played? Well, it would be Sunday,
And okay, I'm imediately I start thinking, Sunday at two
pm Eastern time, head to head with eight NFL games?
What in the holy hell are you guys thinking, like,
(11:12):
play this game on Friday Saturday. I watched it from
beginning to end. I'm not going to see a play
of this freaking game. Now. Yeah, that doesn't make any sense.
I don't even have a response that I can logically say. Why, Like,
there's a perfect there's an ideal window open. It's Saturday
at one pm Eastern, Yes, yes, absolutely right, College Raiders game,
(11:35):
Yes perfect. Are you sure it's not a typo in
the game's not being played Saturday at that time. That
is the most absurd thing I've ever heard in my life.
That's Sunday at two pm. That is doing that is
assinin It's really bad. But we moved from that to
something that's not a shamous about that game this week, though,
(11:56):
on the show. Yeah, oh yeah, we definitely will your
week eight team prop plays. You are, you know, like
that eight year old that runs like it's Christmas morning
time to open present, like you have that child still
lives inside of you because of Week eight teen prop bets.
Over here, let's start with the Chiefs and Raidas. This
(12:17):
is one of your prop plays. What do you like
in this matchup? First of all, I'm excited on Saturday
because we're gonna, obviously now with college football season ending,
start to do a lot more transitioning into the NFL.
And this week, particularly the time slot that we are
in Saturday morning leading into the Saturday afternoon and Sunday games,
(12:39):
it's like the ideal betting window because it's when all
the prop numbers start to get released. We're recording this
on a Thursday morning, We're starting to see some of
them get released for Saturday's games and then into Sunday.
Mahomes needs four hundred and thirty passing yards too. I
believe either pass or tie, or you know, get past
Peyton Manning single season record, which is seventy seven. His
(13:00):
passing yards prop is around three nineteen ish, and again
that's the ideal number because you know he's gonna be
gunning for the record. First of all, he gets a
Raider's defense that's been terrible this year. They gave up
a bunch of points to brock Purty last week, and
the number he needs is so much higher. I think
the sense of urgency will squarely be there. And I
(13:21):
like the over for this game too, just because I
think the Raiders offense looked okay with Jared stood him.
So this game has the makings. With Kansas City needing
to win to clinch that top seed, I think the
direction the NFL is going to go in is going
to just let the Bengals Bills games stay postpone and
they will let win percentage determined seating. That means this
game means a lot for the Chiefs to you know,
for home field. So this is like an absolute go
(13:44):
zone for me. Mahome's over passing yards prop anywhere in
the three teen range is a bet. And the other
one that you are incredibly excited about Titans Jaguars the
nightcap on Saturday for the a f C South. There
are incentives galore Evan Ingram, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, but
(14:07):
there is one man that was just mentioned that you
have both eyes directly on. Who is that guy, Jared.
I've heard a lot about Jones and Kirk this week.
They've already earned a lot of incentives in their contracts,
and they absolutely will be motivated to earn more this week.
But I haven't seen a lot of news on Ingram.
Ingram is another guy that's already earned six hundred thousand
(14:27):
dollars because he's eclipped his receiving yards six hundred yard number.
But now if he gets to excuse me, seven hundred number. Now,
if he gets to eight hundred, he gets another two
hundred thousand, and he's sixty one yards away from that.
And the reason why this number is great is because
it is, first of all, it's relatively low. Second of all,
his prop number is also in the mid forties, and
(14:48):
that is a perfect little gap between what he needs
and what his prop number is. So I feel very
comfortable here. The final wrinkle, which is what makes Ingram,
in my opinion, I meant sleep, more valuable than Jones
and Kirk. Of those three guys, only Ingram's contract expires
this season. Remember, he bet on himself this off season.
He signed the one year deal. Wasn't getting a lot
(15:10):
of love from a lot of places, say hey, I'm
gonna better myself and I'm gonna sign a one year deal. Well,
now that adds even more urgency to this situation because
unlike Jones and Kirk, who can create you know, other
roster and and workout bonuses in the off season, a
lot of times when guys get close to their contract
incentive numbers at the end of the year and they
don't reach them, the agents will then reach out to
(15:32):
the team and say, hey, we're coming back next year,
let's you know, roll this bonus over and you know,
reallocate and repurpose it into a workout or and incentive
bonus down the road. You don't have that option with
Ingram because his contract is expiring. So I think that
makes his number just I would say it's probably going
to be my largest individual wager of the NFL season
so far over Evan Ingram receiving yards. And I strongly
(15:55):
recommend betting that number now before it gets to sixty
one and it loses all of its value. Can we
do the ladder with Ingram? There are there any ladder
options over here? You know, that's a good idea, you
know in game. No, he's always thinking. I'm just thinking,
then we would we would get a fifty and then
(16:19):
maybe a sixty would be the way to play it
if we can get it. But not a lot of
sports books offer that. And another thing about these so
for the contract incentive props. The last couple of years,
as gambling has become more popular and the props, obviously
this has become a lot more public, and the numbers
will fluctuate very quickly. So if you see one you like,
(16:40):
don't hesitate to bet it because the numbers will move
and the sports books are aware and they will adjust accordingly.
No great stuff. Hey, catch us on Saturday. Countdown to
Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're on Fox Sports Radio.
Jared Smith will be with us, Rich Ornberger, Penn State,
All American. Always a good time myself, Brian No, that's
nine am them until noon Eastern time on Saturday. Get
(17:03):
you all set for Week eighteen. Little college football, maybe
a little college troops. We're gonna get nutty. So catch
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you and your friend will receive a fifty dollar bonus
bet MGM the King of Sports Books. All right, I
want to welcome in Bill Crack and Burger sports handy
(17:26):
Kapper from crack wins dot Com joining us here on
the podcast. Crack Um, I don't know, it's like I'm
talking to someone else here. As soon as you popped
on before we started recording, you gave me some sides.
I'm like, Crack, do you have a feature? Are you
feeling you're normally a total guy? You've given me some
(17:46):
sides here today. You were about to call me quack wins,
which I actually like that better. I may change the
whole organization, so quack wins dot com. Yes, very little
quacky this weekend. I'm giving you sides because there's playoff
implications and sometimes books don't catch certain things. And uh,
(18:08):
yesterday I bet a couple of things from one was
I bet a teaser with Denver Denver plus seven and
a half and the Bengals minus one a six point teaser. Uh,
you gotta get over the seven, and then you can't
get this anymore. It started moving it's correlated because if
the Bengals win, which they're supposed to win seven point favorites,
the Chargers will sit their starters, so um, it is
(18:30):
supposed to win. So that that's the situation there, and
I'm sorry Cincinnati's supposed to win obviously. But you know, conversely,
you can actually bet the other way to You can
bet Ravens money line and Chargers money line, so it's
kind of interesting and you can do both of them
and have some fun with them and you get back
some good returns. Uh. But I think that my teaser
(18:53):
looks better. But you can actually still bet the parley.
If I had a bet one thing, I probably bet
the Bengals money line about three to one there with
Denver Lane and one quarter comes back plus one thirty
five to one forty five, compending on where you're betting it.
I think that's a pretty good money line parlay. And
you know I believe it or not. I don't. I
(19:14):
never talked about hedging. It's real simple. If you bet that.
Let's say about that for I'll use small terms, A
hundred dollars. If you bet it for a hundred dollars
and you get back a hundred and thirty five. If
Cincinnati wins, you get back a hundred and thirty five
If um, if your second leg of your parley Denver wins,
you can actually hedge that with a Chargers bet plus two. Um,
(19:38):
you know, have a little bolt, actually go and lock
up some money and still have a shot in the middle.
So there's a couple of different things you get do.
Or you can bet a Chargers money line. Uh, you
know taking now you're taking plus money on both sides.
You're you're taking you know, plus one fifteen on one side,
plus one thirty five on the other side. That's a
good scenario. I bet I bet many, many, many thousands
(19:59):
of dollars on this. So, um, it's it's a it's
a good situation you have there. You know, we have
situations here where there must win teams and you know that,
you know, that's why I wanted to get to next.
Crack is upstream. From time to time, you like to
go against the grain and this is something that you
love doing where if you look at these must win
(20:21):
spots and you can remember, if you're a diehard NFL fan,
there are so many times last year Indianapolis had to
win against Jacksonville and they got worked, they got shut out.
Um and uh, well I don't know if they got
shut up, but they got crushed in that game. And uh,
it happens time and time again. There's a team that
has nothing to play for and they're Lucy Goosey. The
(20:41):
team has everything on the line and they're tight and
they just can't get out of their own way. You
see any opportunities this week for something like that. Listen,
it's real simple. I want to bettle. I want to
bet against all the must wins. This goes goes back
at that gate here. Literally, uh, just blindly betting against
the must win teams. You have an overinflated line normally, Um,
(21:06):
I don't really see that in a Seattle game. Now
Seattle played the Rams earlier in the season, the line
was more so I I don't see that that that situation,
But there's a lot of situations where it's already baked
into the line. I mean, Um, the Philadelphia given the
Giants fourteen, I mean, I I know the Giants are gonna,
you know, don't need the game because they're already in
the playoffs and it doesn't improve them. Um, Philadelphia does
(21:30):
need the game to the division, but they needed the
last couple of games for the division, and you know,
with the Minshoe situation there, I I'm not even of
Hurts is gonna you know, he did throw some snaps yesterday,
so he did throw some passes I've seen. Uh, you
know what, one thing I'll say, real fast crack is
one of the things that makes Philly so special this
(21:50):
season is Jalen Hurts running ability. And if he's not,
he's not gonna be running the same way. And that's
a bit of their whole approach. So I think you
got to keep that in mind if you're thinking about
getting in on the side between the Giants and Philly
in that one. Well, and even better, the Giants have
a history and I know it's different operational wise, different coach,
(22:12):
different thing. I think the Giants have a history of
playing the situation against Brady years ago, they played all
their starters even though they were they didn't need the game,
and I think the same situation here. I think the
ball is gonna uh play his starters at least for
the first half. So I'm looking at a Giant's first half.
(22:32):
Bet I may even be looking at a Giants plus
four team which is widely available, but Giants, uh, you know,
not not only for the game. I think the first
half is a good bet here, and again only one
or two sports books have that right now, And um,
I want to go bet it, yes said, and they
wanted to give me like a ridiculous low bet on
the first half, so that line will come come up
(22:53):
on the next couple of days. I think it's a
good bet. Also, I think conversely that Philadelphia is a
good bet in the third quarter. I think that if
they do come out the Giants and play that all
those starters in their first half to maybe pull the
range back a little bit in the third quarter, get
some eyeballs on some other guys. The oh they're doing
some of the backups in case they do need them
for the playoffs. And I think Philadelphia third quarter is
(23:16):
probably a good bettles which some of the sites actually
you could bet third quarter right now, so um, this
will be up though pregame that you could bet the
third quarter Philly. So we have some really good interesting
scenarios and this is this being one of them. This weekend. Uh,
Philadelphia really hasn't shown nothing with their backup, which we
(23:36):
were kind of expecting them to, you know, play a
little bit better, and uh, I mean to lose to
the Saints like they did last week. It was really disgusting. Uh,
So we'll see what happens. Yeah. One thing I wanted
to throw at you, Crack is uh the situation with
Damar Hamlin and and hang with me for a second,
because this will make sense. It will apply to uh
(23:57):
some other things here. But the build safety went down
against the Bengals, suffered a cardiac arrest. The administered CPR
rushed him off in the ambulance to the hospital. He's
making great progress, thank god that he's getting better. And
of complete secondary importance is now we look at the
(24:18):
impact on the schedule, and I'm curious what the NFL
is going to do with that Bill's Bengals game. Did
they just say we're not going to make it up.
Do they think about delaying the playoffs by a week
and getting that game in because it has a lot
to do with who's gonna be the one seed, who's two,
(24:39):
who's three. That's really interesting to me because we have
not heard a ruling of that at all. Let's just say,
for the sake of argument, the NFL says we're gonna
make this game up, We're gonna resume play next week. Well,
then a game like Giants Philly is a lot more
interesting because now, all of a sudden, everybody would have
(24:59):
a bye week essentially, right, So you might see a
team like the Giants play their starters a little bit longer.
If that's the scenario, I don't expect it to be
the scenario. The NFL is probably gonna say, we're not
gonna make that game up, We're not gonna resume it.
We're just gonna do the standings based on percentage points
and all that type of stuff. But it's just something
in the back of my mind. With that detail not
(25:21):
being ironed out yet, I think it could potentially have
an impact on on these games in Week eighteen and
how they play out and who plays and who rests
and all those sorts of things. Yeah, you know, they
already said that they're in the league or already said
it would not resume their suspended game this week. So
with the player next week, we could it be resumed
(25:42):
next week. There's a small window to fit in another
game before the wild card matchups on the fourteenth. On Saturday,
the fourteen. There's a small window. I you know, I
just don't know if that's going to happen. Um, I
really don't, but I would think I would think they
are going to make up the game. If I had
(26:03):
a bet on it, I think they're gonna make up
the game. But you know, from a from a betting standpoint,
all these people that bet mad think if you bet
over Bill season wins or over Bangal season wins, can't
you got an easy winner and you don't get paid
because they have to play every game. And conversely, how
about the guys that bet the under and throw the
(26:25):
tickets away. Oh it's this is just like betting baseball.
It's when you bet the over of the Rangers Orioles
game or whatever and they've got nineteen runs and it
gets rained out in the seventh inning and you don't
get paid. It's the worst. Yeah, I mean, they can actually,
if they cannot find another date for the game, they
(26:46):
might decide to drop it and just call it a tie.
I mean it literally could be a non game or
you know whatever. And based on their their record or
final records are based on sixteen games rather than seventeen,
So I think that's what's gonna happen, Cracked Past. I
know someone who has amount of money on the over.
I don't think they're going to resume that game, and
they're probably gonna rule it a tie. I think that's
(27:08):
probably the way it's gonna go. But I think that
needs to be set in stone before Week eight team.
You know, like we should know the scenario going right
about that team, that we should know about that. Both
teams should know about that. Yes, then the rest of
the league, the rest of the because if you if
you don't know if the game could be resumed next
(27:30):
week and then the playoffs begin the following week, that's
a huge piece of information and might determine how you
approach Week eight team. Yeah yeah, yeah. But the best
thing out of all of this is is this kid
is showing about it's a miracle. Well that's this is
none of the next scenarios, None of it would matter
(27:51):
if if he wasn't improving, that's the whole thing, Like,
that's what matters most. But because he is improving, then
we can start to look at what the scenario might be.
There's something else you're looking at here, Crack. We look
at Saturday night a f C South on the line
for the Titans and Jags. What are you thinking here
in the first half? But I think they're gonna come
(28:12):
out pumped up in that first half Jack's, Tennessee. I
think we're gonna see some points here. I like the
over over twenty in the first half there, and it's
available almost everywhere. Still, I think we're gonna see a
lot of points and uh, hopefully. I mean, I'm thinking
we're gonna be watching that game together. But who knows.
I don't know where we're gonna be Saturday night. Yeah,
you're gonna be there Saturday. Well, I'm gonna be in
(28:32):
Cincinnati with you there. I didn't know you were getting
in town that now. Yeah, I'm coming out to be
watching this game. We might be eating shrimp and maybe
some salmon. I don't know, maybe some steak. We get
down with some steak as well. Crack. I'm up for
any of that. This will be it'll be a fun time.
I look forward to it. But yeah, Jacksonville, Tennessee over
first half, looking for some points there, Uh, some fireworks
(28:54):
hopefully in the first half there. And the other game
really doesn't interest in me. The Vegas Kansas City game. Um,
you know again, look look at last week again, I mean,
look look at the whenever you see these big points
spreads this year, it's unbelievable taking the points. What what?
What has happened this year? This might be the number
one year on record that to take double digits here,
I'll say nine or more points underdog. Uh. They they
(29:17):
have done unbelievable this year. So we have a couple
of situations this weekend. Um, you know the sanfran Arizona,
the Philly Jet Philly and the Giants. Um, I mean
they're ugly teams though Arizona, God, I would hate to
even think about betting them. But this situation situation is
there too. So and I would say Kansas City of
Vegas in Vegas, everyone that I know, I mean everyone
(29:40):
asked me to get them tickets to this game. Bill,
could you get me tickets to a Raiders game? I'd
like to get the Kansas City one. Yeah, sure, a right, problem, Yeah,
no problem, But that's what they want. That's the game
everyone's going to. So this will be and I talk
about it on our Sunday show Countdown the Kickoff all time.
So this crowd, well probably be fifty fifty Kansas City
(30:02):
fansies in Vegas fans because you know, unfortunately people a
lot of people are fair weather fans to how the
team's doing. And uh so you may see more Kansas
City jerseys than Vegas jersey. By the way, crack, I
wanted to pick your brain here with the week eight
teen prop bets, and you love this week because they
are incentives on the line and sometimes you can cash
(30:22):
in on that as well, not just a player, but
it's situational I think as well. Where I'll give you
a game, an example where Jacksonville. Okay, so Jacksonville Saturday night,
they've got a chance to win the division against the Titans.
Za Jones wide receiver. He needs receiving yards to trigger
a bonus that would be half a million dollars if
(30:44):
he can get to nine d receiving yards for the season.
How do you think about that, because going into the game,
that's not even on their radar that we hey, we
need to get Za Jones his ninety eight yards. They
give a rats asked about that. They're about winning the
a f C South. Should the opportunity present itself and
they're winning comfortably, Yeah, maybe they target Za Jones. So
(31:06):
how do you as a better think about incentive based
props heading into week eighteen, depending on the situation specifically, Well, alright,
you open the can of worms here. I didn't. We
talked a little bit before the show. I didn't mention
this one because I'm just I haven't seen it yet,
That's why. But all right, we'll go to it. He
(31:26):
also needs two catches for two, so I like to go.
I like to to catch one more than the yards one.
So if if if someone has that up, and sometimes
these places put this up. You look at some of
the sports books, they'll have a wide array of of
wide receivers and running back secondary running backs. So, uh
that that's a very good bet to make incentive base
(31:48):
proposition bets. Boy, this is this will be a fun week. Uh,
this is. This is a fun week to bet a
lot of these things. So, yeah, you're you're, you're, you're
spot on about Za Jones And that's the two different
bonuses he needs. And if we can find that, I
think it's a really good bet. You got your eye
on tight end Tyler Higbee. Let us know about this crack.
He needs thirteen yards. They hit a half a million
(32:10):
dollar bonus. Um. You know he he does come up
on the on the prop sheets too, but you know
he actually failed to do this in four of his
last six games. However, they might not have targeted him
as much, but he played over the snaps. I was
reading some some uh an article about this. Um, you know,
I think he easily goes over to thirteen yards this
(32:32):
week if they have that up there, I will be
betting this with both hands for sure. Yeah yeah, yeah,
Rams against the Seahawks, uh this weekend. So it's a base.
It must be like, Okay, this is ridiculous. Let's get
the ball to Higbee this time. Good lord. The only
thing is it might be too high though, Brian Moore,
I think about it. If if they have him up
at like thirty yards, you have to be careful many
(32:54):
yards they have. You know, he'll get his thirteen yards
and then take the money to the bench. Uh man,
that would be you're right though. Yeah, Okay, we got
hi miss fourteen. We're good. Nothing nothing more to see here.
Put him on ice. Yeah, how about this. Let's just
hit on the Sunday night game here, real fast crack
Lions at the Packers Packers have been playing much better lately.
(33:17):
They throttled the Vikings last week. They're on a winning streak.
Lions have been playing very well. Um, outside of a
setback against the Panthers a couple of weeks ago, but
they have been playing much better football. What do you
see in that game? Well, listen, the Lions need a
ton of help. They need a win over Green Bay
plus a Seattle loss or a tie against the Rams. Uh.
(33:39):
You know, and but there's there's other ways to get
into It's a six sick way. But like they need
a couple of ties and then uh, and then they
can also get in. But that's the way they get
in here. But I'll tell you what, I don't care
if they don't even need the game. I want to
tell you I think Detroit's gonna play them tough. I
think this line may even go up a little bit
if we can get a six here. I think I
(34:00):
may this This may be the number one week of
the year. I bet some sides, so um, I don't
do a lot of sides, but this, this may be
one of my sides. This week will be uh betting
on the Lions old school rival. Uh. And you know,
Detroit played. They played so good in the middle of
the year. I I don't they kind of fell apart
a little bit. And uh, like I said, they were
(34:22):
scoring thirty forty points. Again, they were. They were played
so good. They're played so tight against the spread. My god,
this goes back even last season. They were so tight
against the spread. There they were. They were in every
game covering like crazy, and uh kind of let off
let off the gas here and and like the third Um,
I'm gonna say that the third quarter of the year. Um,
(34:44):
And I just think that this is a good situation
for them. Though here I'm still not sold on green
Bay at all. You know, they really looked bad were
out the season. Even though they have looked good to
let it looked a little better in the last few weeks.
I'll look at Detroit here as I'll be on a
plane that night, but I'd be probably having Detroit. I've
been on Detroit. Yeah, well they listen. Detroit's been seven
(35:07):
and two down the stretch to their losses. One was
the Thanksgiving Day game against the Bills where they played
them very tough. It's what stands out is that game
against Carolina where Carolina rushes for a franchise record that's
on the crown. It's like I think about I'm not
disagreeing with you. The Lions plus the points might be
the right side in this matchup. But if you're looking
(35:29):
at props, i'd look directly at Aaron Jones because what's
Detroit gonna do against the rush? And you know Green
Bay is gonna pound the rock. So I would look
to Aaron Jones and a J. Dillon depending on what
their props are heading into this game. If it's too high,
I'm gonna stay away. But if you can get a
line that's legit, that's doable, they're just gonna keep feeding
(35:52):
those guys because, man, you look at that Green Bay
rushing attack last week against Minnesota, I would expect something
very sim or against Detroit, who's having all kinds of
trouble against the rush. Yeah, no, you're you're you're right.
And there's also a guy, um, I'm an outside linebacker,
Preston Smith that has a really interesting incentive that um,
(36:13):
someone else sent me this, but I don't know how
I can more. I don't know how kind of monetize
monetize this. Preston Smith needs one and a half sacks
to earn a million bucks. So um he had to
pressures week nine Verse Detroit. So that's just just a
little different take on something there. Sometimes they do have
(36:33):
over under on some of the defense. Some of the
sites really put some crazy stuff up. So that's something else.
But that should that that that really gives us a
real nice end cap to our NFL regular season. As
long as the Bengals game doesn't get replayed, that that
should be an interesting game on on Sunday night. Look
forward to it. Some good things this week. I'm sure
(36:53):
I'll have some extra stuff. I'll have some great stuff
on our Sunday show for some proposition bets that will
still be there. There's gonna be a lot of low
hanging fruit in the sports books this week. Very much
looking forward to it. Hey be sure to check out
the new looking features in the bed MGM app. It's
fast and easy access to the sports you love, whether
it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost, or the cash
(37:13):
out feature. New users can use the code countdown for
a special offer. As Crack said, right there, catch us
on Sunday. Count Down to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Bill Crackenburger with us from crack wins dot com, not
quack wins dot com, crack wins dot com. Jeff Schwartz,
eight year NFL veteran, myself Brian Now will be live
(37:35):
in Cincinnati. Welcome to betting Ohio. Yes, we will be
there in the flesh. Catch us from ten am until
one pm Eastern Time. Right up to kick off. It's
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM
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