January 12, 2023 • 37 mins
Brian Noe previews the first round of the NFL playoffs with the sharpest minds in betting! Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to look at some major trends to be aware of this weekend. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to dive deep into each matchup in the NFL Divisional Round!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bat MGM, the
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(00:23):
eight game. We're here to break it all top. Let's go,
Let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff
presented by bet mg A. Nah, We're live from your
tail game. Here's Brian no no, hey, welcome in. It's
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the official podcast.
(00:45):
We'll have Jared Smith, are betting analyst here and just
a little bit talking some mostly football, mostly NFL, you know,
a little bit of college but mostly NFL. Also Bill
Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com. We'll have a heavy
portion of NFL action. I'm Brian. Note new users download
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(01:09):
As promised Jared Smith with us here and Jared. Normally
we we would have this crescendo for the college football season,
which is the national championship not so much six to seven.
How's that taste? TCU Georgia just rolls, And really it
was all about the semi final games, and it made
the championship game look even worse as far as blowout
(01:33):
City was. But season is officially in the books and
the Dogs repeat. Yeah, the real Natty was Ohio State
Georgia um and we we discussed that on on on
the show Saturday, and it was I didn't think it
was gonna be as bad. But I think the part
of the handicap that I was proud of that we
were able to identify and really key in on was
(01:54):
just how good George's offenses. And we talked about Georgie's defense.
Jalen Carter is going to be an absolute monster, and
they've got a ton of five stars all over the field.
But at the end of the day, Georgia's scheme and
and Todd Munkin's ability to put people in the right
place and then steps and Bennett's ability to execute that
that that scheme to perfection on the brightest of stages,
(02:15):
I think was the story of the night. Georgia's defense
did it off. I think TCU a little overmatched offensively.
We talked, um, you know a little bit about how
Max Duggan didn't really play that well against Michigan. You know,
it wasn't very accurate, had some issues, and then Georgia
really disguised their coverage as well and made it even
more confusing for him, something Michigan didn't do well. So
I just think there's a lot of positives to take
(02:36):
from Georgia and and TCU in that game. And I
know it wasn't a fun game, Brian, but I think
it was still a really good season for the horn Frogs,
and obviously Georgia deserves all the flowers. Yeah, definitely. And
brock Bowers finally cashed for me. Yeah, yeah, I got
it on that one too. That was nice. Yeah, he's
an awesome player, and I had bet on him a
couple of times before and he wouldn't cash for me. Man,
(03:00):
he got he cashed twice. He was like a hundred
and twenties something yards. The end was props in the sixties,
so I got home twice. Should have bet the Altar
on that one, but yeah, yeah, I even bet the
alt George at twenty and a half and got two
to one on that, so it was a great and
I had a good, uh bowl season. I was profitable,
and I had to blast with you guys doing college
football this year and all the bowls and all the storylines,
(03:20):
and yeah it was it was a good season for sure.
Oh great season. And hey, we shift over to the
NFL Super wild Card weekend coming up here, six total games.
You got a bunch of notes over here, Jared, I
love this. You've been hard at work here. Give us
a note on first time playoff quarterbacks. I'm curious about this. Yeah,
and again this this this trend applies for a few
(03:44):
games this week, but there's one game in particular that
it really applies to. So first time playoff quarterbacks, you know,
making their first ever playoffs start against non first time quarterbacks. Really,
it's the Giants Vikings game. I think that you know,
exemplifies this trend. The first time playoff quarter backs are
fourteen thirty five and one against the spread. That's twenty
eight and a half percent. Last year they went oh
(04:05):
and three and they all got blasted. Kyler Murray got
blasted against the Rams, lost by twenty three. Mac Jones,
they lost by thirty against the Bills, and Jalen Hurts
looked very overmatched against the Bucks. They lost by six teens.
So Daniel Jones this Giants team, they've been very spunky
this year. I think Brian Dable deserves to be Coach
of the Year. But it's Daniel Jones first playoffs start.
(04:27):
How does he handle a road environment against a Vikings
defense that's certainly is at leaves a lot to be desired.
But again, some of the intangibles that we can't quantify
during the postseason, we'll see. Kirk Cousins has been there before.
I know he's the narrative on him is down. But
to me, that trend very actionable this weekend because first
time playoff qbs don't farewell historically. Very interesting and you know,
(04:51):
maybe you think about maybe the under in a couple
of games over here where there are a couple of
guys making their playoff debuts in the same game. You know,
think about Geno Smith of the of the Seahawks and
Brock Party of the Niners. You know, if this trend continues,
maybe you'll look at the under as well. You know,
(05:12):
something to think about. I agree, um double digit underdogs
have also not fared well. Wild Card weekend one and
seven against the spread. The only cover um was Taylor
Heineke in Washington a few years ago when they lost
by eight as a ten point dog against the Bucks.
So again, that will absolutely apply to Buffalo in Miami
this week. It might apply to San Francisco and Seattle.
(05:34):
But in general, the gaps between teams on wild Card
weekend historically they're pretty big gaps. So don't be afraid
to lay the spread, you know, lay the chalk if
you think the Bengals are gonna win. More often than not,
it's about seventy five percent of the time the team
that wins on wild Card weekend also covers the spread,
so I know it's like, oh, it's a lot of points. Well,
(05:55):
wild card weekends specifically, it hasn't been over over over
historical period of time. By the way, it's not really
a gambling note, but something that stood out to me.
We were talking about on the Sunday Countdown show where
it was shaping up to be Chargers Jags in that
early window on Saturday, because that's not the sexiest matchup
(06:15):
and here comes the Seahawks and Seahawks are like that game.
I gave out rams on Saturday. I mean that was
that was a tight game. That was my game. That
was a very tight game. But Detroit upsetting Green Bay,
which meant that Seattle got in and it is Seattle
and the forty Niners kicking things off. And how about
(06:37):
I was surprised. I'm like, whoa Chargers and Jags in
prime time on Saturday? Oh, I get it. Quarterbacks, good
quarterback matchup. And that's another interesting one because both guys
making their first career playoff starts. But of all the
quarterbacks making their first career playoffs starts this week, you
probably trust Herbert and Lawrence the most, right, That's why
that game's got some interesting back and forth nature perhaps
(06:59):
to it. Yeah, what do you have Tyler Huntley making
his debut? Thompson, I don't trust those guys as much
my fins. Jared Like, that's an interesting line because you're
just talking about the bigger spreads in Super wild Card weekend.
The biggest bread is the bill is favored by thirteen.
How are the Dolphins gonna move the ball? Here's the thing,
(07:20):
if you go back to the regular season matchup, the
Dolphins ran the ball great in Buffalo against the Bills,
but Raheem Mostard has banged up. The offensive line is
banged up with Ron Armstead. I just and you've got
Skyler tops. There's a huge difference between TWA and Skyler Thompson.
Where the Bills all they're gonna do is be like,
(07:41):
let's sell out against the run and make Skyler Thompson
prove it again and again and again that he's got
the goods to beat us, and we're betting that he doesn't. Yeah,
and and of all the games this week, this game
I have the least notes on because I just I
didn't see a whole Like I have a pal Tank Williams.
I do a lot of shows with him across a
various nowhere and he said, yeah, basically, the Chiefs and
(08:02):
the Bills have buys this week. I mean, that's that's
kind of what it feels like. And I know, you know,
the odds don't reflect that officially. Um, but it is
interesting to see Buffalo and Kansas City so close in
the futures market. To win the a f C, there
are only like ten twenty cents apart, and Buffalo has
to play a whole extra game. But we just heard Atlanta,
the neutral site for the a C Championship game if
(08:24):
it is Buffalo Kansas City. So because Buffalo's road got
so much easier this week, and then the a f
C Championship game on a neutral it really makes Buffalo
kind of a favorite, like a co favorite with the
Chiefs despite the fact that they have to play an
extra game and they're the two seed. Very interesting situation there,
(08:44):
um with the futures market in the a f C
with Buffalo and Kansas City. That's so random. Just the
whole thing is random. Where it's going to be a
neutral site potentially if it's Bills meeting the Chiefs and
it's not even in an nf in an a f
C site, you're wrangling for them or the stadium you
want that offense. Yeah, but they're gonna it's gonna be Atlanta.
(09:04):
That's just I don't know. The whole thing is out.
We'll cross that bridge if we get to it. How
about this, You've got a note here on man, it's
it's hard to beat the same team three times in
the same season. That would apply to the Seahawks and
forty Niners matchup on Saturday. What do you have on that? Yeah,
And again there's a lot of things like we have
to fill time on these on these shows, so so
(09:25):
you're gonna hear a lot of you know, cliches and
narratives throughout the course of the week. There's a lot
of historical data about the postseason and some trends that
are pretty definable. One thing you will hear a lot
this week, quote unquote, it's tough to be the t
to team three times in the same year, and so far,
at least recently, I think there's a little bit of
starts behind that. The Rams and the Niners played twice
(09:47):
during the regular season last year. The Rams lost both games.
Then in the NFC Championship Game, the Rams won that game.
Buck the trend won the Super Bowl Saints Bucks Saints
one first matchups regular season an AC division around Bucks
win that game, Bucks go on to win the Super Bowl.
There's some other prior times where a team has won
(10:08):
three Straighten Saints Panthers two thousand nine, Cowboys Eagles two
thousand eight, Steelers Ravens. Steelers won the Super Bowl that year.
That was the Santonio Holmes Um Game. So there is
some precedent for a team winning three straight. And there's
also some recent history that says it's tough to do.
So I think it's fair to say it's tough to
be the team three times in the same year. But
(10:30):
it's not a blanket statement. And Seattle Cheetos Smith. I
don't know, brock Purty maybe live. I've gone back and
forth on this one. I'm curious your thoughts. It's kind
of interesting, right because just the point spread in general,
where it's nine and a half, So it just seems
to be baiting you, doesn't it. It seems like, come on,
the water's fine, jump on in, take the nine thing
(10:53):
down a little bit. Double digits. You wait, it was
double digits now it's not. Yeah, and uh, I just
go back to I ke upon going back to Purty Palooza,
where it has just been a love fest for this
guy and it's gonna strike midnight sooner than later. I
don't know if it's this game against Seattle. My gut
feeling is that what Seattle not being able to stop
(11:14):
the run very well, that is going to have some
success on the ground and they're gonna be able to
hide brock Purty, They're gonna be able to mix him in.
I want to see if brock Purty can get it done.
If a team drastically slows down the running game, I
know it's easier and he has to throw sure, yeah,
exactly behind at any point. What's that vibe? Because they
(11:37):
and I always go back to it was the game
in Seattle between these two teams. I was, yeah, what
Ryan Fitzpatrick said at halftime? He said, the charmed life
of brock Purty. Then it was the sequence before halftime
where he threw a horrible road should have been picked
by Quandre digs right in the at the six right
(11:59):
and as Jersey dropped it, and the next thing you know,
Seattle fumbled and the forty Niners had the ball inside
the five yard line. It went from what should have
been a sure interception to your setup shot inside the
five yard line. It's it's been crazy the way it's
worked out so far for brock Purty. But all that
to be said is that the expiration date is not
(12:21):
that far away for Purty Paluza. And if you're looking
at Seattle plus nine and a half, ask yourself this
who's running? Is the public running to the betting window
to take Geno Smith and the Seahawks plus then nine
and a half, probably not, and that might be the
right side here. I agree. I think if I were
(12:42):
to bet, I haven't bet the only game I bet
so far. I did put a bet on the Vikings
at three, and we can we can go back and
forth on that one. That one. That one's gonna be
a freely fun game, and I'm sure we'll deep dive
on Saturday. But Niners Seahawks. If I were to make
it bet for this game, and there's still time, I
still might I would bet. I would take that prefer
ten obviously, but I would take the nine and a half.
(13:03):
So to your point, the Niners, and this is kind
of a nerd stat and it's also hard to predict
because turnovers are volatible, but the Niners have the most
turnover luck of any team in the NFL this season,
and literally, at the top of my notes, does that
continue in the playoffs? Like question mark? You know, like
I don't know that. That is probably one of the
toughest things. Turnovers and red zone efficiency tend to be
(13:25):
what tilts these games because going from seven to three,
you know, settling for the field goal adds up, and
the turnover margin is everything in these games. So I
don't know, I think. But on the other side, though,
Gino leads the NFL and turnover worthy plays this season,
so not exactly a glowing uh endorsement on his end
(13:45):
holding onto the ball. But you're right, I do think
at some point Party is going to commit that big turnover. Yeah, yeah,
I think he does. Uh, it's probably not gonna bite
him in this matchup. Playoffs collected could never know stranger things.
Let's leaven in this. Of all things this weekend, the
Seahawks winning out right would not be amongst the strangest.
I think if it was like a Dolphin's outright win
(14:06):
or a rave right, then that would surprise me more. Yeah,
Dolphins would surprise me the most. I think Seahawks would
probably be next in line. I do Anthony Brown. Yeah,
that's a that's a really good roster man, really good
roster over there. Um, let's get to another game here.
I'm curious Monday night, Dallas at Tampa, and you've got
(14:29):
Dallas a road favorite minus two and a half. First
impressions on this game, this matchup jared the eight and
nine Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But just like a ferocious wolverine,
just hiding behind the shrubs or something, you know, like,
do you expect them to rise up ed? Can you?
(14:50):
Can you imagine? This is the perfect setup. I don't
know if it's gonna happen, but it's the perfect setup
for the Cowboys, who have had a really strong season
so far. They looked awful against Washington last week. And
if they lose to an eight and nine team, even
though it's Tom Brady, you know, if they lose to
a sub five hundred team, oh my gosh, you cannot
(15:12):
script it better for Dallas and their history over the
last three decades, the better part and and what could
transpire here. It would be crazy if they lose this game. Yeah,
And it's funny. All the games this week are all
return matchups, and this one was literally the first week
of the year. Um. The Bucks were favored by about
(15:34):
a field goal and they won by sixteen. It was
the game Dak Prescott got hurt in. Multiple linemen were
also injured for Tampa Bay. There wasn't a touchdown scored
in that game until the third quarter. And something tells
me we see some some earlier scores in this game,
because I'm looking at the d v O A numbers
for both of these passing defenses. They were both top
(15:56):
ten weeks one through nine. They are both outside the
top eighteen since week ten. Tampa's past defense since Week
ten is in d o A. So as bad as
it looked for Dallas last week, and it was ugly,
Dak Prescott is just he's like seeing ghosts out there.
I think there will be opportunities for him to play
(16:16):
well in this game. The sharp money, from what I've
seen so far, Tampa bay three and a half to three,
then it drifted to two and a half. Now I'm
starting to see some of the buyback on Dallas a
two and a half, So I think three here is
probably the closing number right around there. And I think
if I had to pick the side right now, I
do kind of lean Tampa because I like what I've
(16:38):
seen from their offense over the last couple of weeks.
But I think the over really at forty at forty
five and a half, considering the first time these two
teams played the total was forty nine and a half,
and again first week of the year. A lot of
other factors tough to really take anything with you from
that game, but these two teams at their core were
high scoring teams, and I think the defensive number have
(17:00):
been a little below average. Dallas's secondary is also pretty
banged up still, so I could see this game being
a bit of a shootout, especially if it's Brady and
Prescott and and you know if tom falls behind like
Tampa Bay has done so many times and all of
a sudden their offense starts to play faster. We've seen
Mike Evans come out and you know, talk smack to
the Cowboys this week, So this game's got a little
(17:20):
bit of juice to it. And I would say forty
five and a half's a pretty fair total. So I
would take the over. I think would be my my
bed here. You know what's interesting is it really just
shows you in football how things are, you know, like
tied together. If you look at Tampa, just going back
to Week one, they allowed a field goal. Week two
against the Saints, they allowed ten points, and since then
(17:45):
you've seen the gradual because of Tampa's offensive line issues
and not being able to run the ball effectively all
season long, You've seen Tampa's offense struggle and in turn,
Tampa's defense struggle. But that can turn in the playoffs.
Let's say that Tampa's offense a little bit better. I
don't expect them to run the ball, but let's just
(18:05):
say Tampa's offense in this one game plays pretty well.
You're gonna see the ripple effect in Tampa's defense is
gonna play a lot better as well. So it's really
interesting to see how that can sort itself out. The
other thing to mention is when you're just thinking about
the sides of this game, you look at Dak Prescott
at bet MGM, throwing an interception is minus a dollar
(18:29):
seventy five seven straight games. He's thrown eleven in seven games.
He's tied for the league lead, and he missed five
games this year. He's been an interception machine. So I
watched some film on him, and it was like dan
Orloski did a great breakdown. It was a very simple
route combination. It was a slugo and then a wheel
(18:51):
route with Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz, and like his
eyes were right there, Brian, like he was looking right
at it. And the sluggo route, the corner on Seedee
Lamb kind of squatted a little bit. And if you've
got Seedee Lamb one on one on a slant and go,
and the corner even just hiccups. That's where I'm going
with the football, And he's staring right at it and
(19:11):
it just goes away from it and then throws a
late curl to the other side of the field and
it gets deflected, almost intercepted. So I just don't know
if he's predetermining where he wants to go with the ball,
but he ain't seeing it right now. And if you're
not seeing it in the playoffs on the road against
the team that is defensive minded in nature, sure it
(19:32):
could be ugly. Now it could go the other way
because Dax had the upside too. But I don't know
if I trust he deaf. He doesn't. He looks like
he's not trusting his eyes. And if he's not trusting
his eyes, how can I trust it with my money? No,
it's it's a great point. And I also think about
Todd Bowles where he if we realize that, he realizes it,
and he's gonna throw some different coverages and different looks
(19:55):
and try to confuse him even more. So that's something
to think about. On the flip side, think of it.
The we could go back and forth all day on
this year. It's not to disagree with you, but I'm
just thinking this, who's running game is more likely to
take pressure off of its quarterback? Whose offensive line is
more likely to take pressure off of its quarterback? It's Dallas,
(20:15):
Like Dac has the advantage in this game where if
anybody's gonna run the ball effectively, I expect it to
be Dallas. So Tom Brady is gonna have to do
a lot more most likely than Dac will in this game.
And so that's where it's we're kind of like playing tennis.
I play tennis with myself. Uh well, the medical gymnastics
involved with handicapping and NFL game, yes, absolutely, very it.
(20:40):
Don't you almost outthink yourself? Sometimes you really do. And
now granted we have we have a lot of time
to fill on shows and podcasts, so we have to
put in the legwork. And then the more the deeper
down the rabbit hole, like oh, sometimes, Brian, it's almost
a detriment, it really is. Yeah, I know, right, Yeah,
Typically the a lot of times, your initial impression of
(21:03):
a game, yes, I think you're you're gonna be hitting
higher percentage, and then when you still do that, a
lot in double tournament. I fell out to bracket site, unseen,
no data, no, just fill it out, boom. And then
I put that aside and I like stash it in
like a lock box somewhere for three weeks, and then
I do all my normal research and then I pull
(21:23):
out the other one later and I see how far
off I was, and you're right, it's it's it's you're like, damn,
I should have just stuck with the original. I would.
I could have saved all this time doing all of
this work that sound smart on radio and TV. So
I'll can start doing that, put it away, put it
about it again, totally forget about it, and then when
(21:44):
you do your deep dives and what your picks turned
out to be. Yeah, yeah, it's like an experiment. It's
a social experiment. I do that sometimes with games too.
I'll write down my initial leans and then I'll go
back and then I'll see how far off I was,
you know. I love it. Like my mom won the
Office March Madness Pool like three years in a row,
(22:06):
and she doesn't follow college basket call at all, and
some of that trans translates to what we're doing here.
It could be as ridiculous as in a fight cowboy
or a buccaneer, Right, right, right, which which colored jersey
is better that day? I like the alternate uniforms that
they're gonna be wearing, so I'll bet on no doubt. Well,
(22:26):
we'll have a lot of fun on Saturday previewing everything.
We have two games on Saturday, right, we got the
double header and we'll preview that and the rest of
the Super wild Card weekend slate will be from nine
am until noon Eastern Time on Fox Sports Radio. It's
Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM, joined myself, Brian No,
(22:47):
Jared Smith, betting analyst, and rich Ord Burger, the Penn
State All American. We'll have all the breakdowns for you
and a lot of fun as well. Earn a fifty
dollar bonus by signing into bet MGM and clicking on
refer a friend to invite a friend, and in just
a few simple steps, both you and your friend will
receive a fifty dollar bonus bet MGM, the King of
Sports Books. I want to welcome in here Bill Crackenburger,
(23:08):
sports handicapper from crack wins dot com, and I have
heard from a trusted source crack that you are one
super excited for Super wild Card weekend and you are
betting like a madman over here. As my information correct,
I probably have never been more excited for a NFL
(23:28):
weekend than this weekend. I am really excited. Saturday, we've
got two games, Sunday three games, and then throwing Monday
night football for a playoff game, A wild Card playoff game.
Are you kidding me? This is a really exciting week
And you know I said it before. I've wager a
healthy five figures already on stuff I normally don't do that.
(23:49):
It's nothing to do but the game's being on TV.
But I know everyone out there that's listening is going
to have bets on these games because they're on TV.
Come on, you don't have to do that. But we'll
have on our Sunday show, we'll have some NFL player
props and things that you can bet on, besides betting
the games themselves, which is sometimes really hard to beat.
(24:10):
But I think we should go over game by game,
starting with the Seattle San fran game one thirty five
Pacific time on Saturday. UM, this is gonna be a
surprise to you. Probably I haven't found anyone that likes Seattle.
Not one, I mean the one everyone is on San
(24:33):
Fran What does that mean? That means Jason over at
bet MGM and the sports books will all be on Seattle.
And uh, you know, I think this is uh, if
this is a there's one ten out there right now
at ten minus a dollar fifteen. Um. I I just
think that that's too many points for Seattle. And you know,
normally I'll always say this point dogs of nine or more.
(24:55):
I usually love I don't love it, but I leaned
towards Seattle. Here. I leaned towards Seattle. Also because I
keep on talking about brock Purty. I call it purty Palooza,
just the love fest for brock Purty, Mr Irrelevant, who
has played well. I'll give him his flowers to a degree.
He's played well in the regular season against teams like Arizona,
(25:16):
and you know, like Arizona, like Arizona, and let's see
who else do they they play down this stretch? You
know a lot of non playoff teams, you know what
I mean? So I think the credit goes beyond where
it should be. The Saints, they beat the Cardinals twice, actually, Um, yeah, yeah,
(25:42):
I know someone about fifteen thousand on San fran plus
four and a half the one that that's no dummy
to win the Super Bowl on two on Monday, So
um that that's probably the wise. I love the roster crack,
I love San Francisco's roster, but there's just too much
positivity for a three string rookie quarterback from the seventh round.
(26:04):
Like if you're Seattle, I know they don't stop the
rush very well, but if you're going into this game,
I think you're saying, let's do everything we can to
slow down the running game, because we know in that
Kyle Shanahan offense, the passing game is dependent on a
good running game. And if you're able to slow down
that running game and put way more pressure on Brock Purty,
(26:25):
can you force an interception or two? If you can,
you're in business. So I just look at it from
that standpoint. If they're able to slow down the running
game more than we're expecting, they are a live dog
in this one. Live dog, beautiful beautiful. How about Chargers Jags,
Chargers and two point favorite on the road. I don't
(26:45):
get it. I really don't know. Not feeling justin Herbert
and his debut here. I don't get the line a line.
This line opened up at two went out to pick
them all Jacksonville money now all heavy heavy Charger money.
I mean this game uh here in town at Circle,
which makes the lines for a lot of the sports
books minus two and a half, minus fifteen, minus two
(27:06):
and a half everywhere, a couple other books minus two
and a half minus fifteen. I'm just not sold on
on the Chargers. But then again, I understand that Jacksonville
is not one of the super Bowl either. They barely
got in. They should have lost last week. So, um,
I do get it. I I kind of like the
(27:27):
Jaguars a little bit here. Um maybe in play and
I'm sorry, you know, but there's certain places you get
at teasers. I kind of like them there, but I
just don't know. Um, it's hard to trust. It's it's
hard to trust Trevor Lawrence too, so I surely understand why.
I'll probably stay off the game though, But but it's
(27:49):
still a great game to watch. It's lined perfect. I
guess you know, pick them one too. They supposed to
be tight, good games, So we'll see what's gonna happen here.
I I um, I'll tell you what I leaned towards
the over there. So I may bet a first half
over twenty three and a half. There's something I may bet. Hmm, interesting,
I uh, I think too. Even though Joey Bosa got
(28:12):
a little bit nicked up last week, I don't know
why he's playing against Denver in a meaningless game and
Mike Williams got banged up to ridiculous. But if you
look at that Chargers pass rush Khalil Mack Joey Bosa,
you've got a banged up Jacksonville offensive line. I could
see Trevor Lawrence trying to just get rid of the
(28:32):
football and making a bad decision or facing a decent
pass rush. So I could see, uh, Trevor Lawrence turning
the ball over in this game. And if that happens,
if you're thinking about it from a sides perspective, that's
gonna have an impact. If you're thinking about it from
a prop perspective, I think Trevor Lawrence throwing a pick.
And what would be his first playoff game? It seems
like he's already played one, like last week was a
(28:55):
makeshift playoff game. But this is his playoff debut and
against a re o pass rush. Yeah, you might see
a costly interception or two in this one. How about
this Dolphins Bills? I love when you go on your
tangents here, crack, you're at the Uh you know you're
on the soapbox over here. Soap boxes aren't automatically bad.
I love soapboxes. Sometimes you don't think that the Bill
(29:17):
should be getting all these points just because T isn't
gonna be playing here. Listen, it's gonna be a great moment. Uh.
You know, the kid, the kid that got hurt actually
may even be at the game. My god, imagine if
he's at the game. I mean, Buffalo will go absolutely crazy. Uh,
it's so great he's out of the hospital recovering. Oh
my god, this this is a miracle. Really, so him
(29:40):
at the game. Maybe a Buffalo first half might be
a good play. But for the game itself, I don't
know if any quarterback they announced two out, is any
quarterback into the whole league works seven points this game
when yesterday you could have had minus seven minus twenty
minus seven minus twenty five. It's thirteen solid yesterday, I
mean right now, yesterday. It was what it was, thirteen
(30:01):
and a half. There was even a rogue fourteen here
in town. So I don't know if any quarterbacksport that.
I am not laying that many points on Buffalo. Miami
played them so good this season. I understand the situational
disft differences at the quarterback and stuff, but um, Miami
beating them once in Buffalo, playing tough up in Buffalo.
They were training out in the cold weather. Um for
(30:21):
that game. I uh, and and really upstate people asked
past me today. I was on another show this morning.
Oh Buffalo teasing down to six from thirteen. I think
I in their minds that don't don't be a sucker, man,
don't be there to come on. Don't know. No one
teases double digit favorites or double double digit dog that's ridiculous.
I'll just tell you right now. Um, this is gonna
(30:44):
be a fun game to watch. I am gonna probably
just be rooting for Miami with the points and and
I look forward to the to the festivities. If there is, uh,
there's still a couple of sevens out there in the
first half, it might be a good grab. So we'll
see what happened. Man crack Uh. The Dolphins are my
team since I was a kid, and I know you're
(31:06):
gonna hate me for this, but I agree with you,
Buffalo first half might be a really good bet. I
just can't bring myself to do it. I can't do it.
I know you're loyal to your bankroll, and that's fine.
I'm I'm still loyal to the Fins. I just I
can't pull for Buffalo, even for a first half. And
like I might be kicking myself while they're up by
ten at halftime, Like at least I got a cashed
(31:28):
in on this, but I just can't bring myself to
do it. Can't do it, No, I hear you. How
about Giants Vikings? You got the Vikings and all their wins,
great record for the season, but they're just a three
point standard standard home favorite against Daniel Jones and company.
What do you think about this? Probably the most least
(31:49):
interesting game that for me of the week. I have
nothing on this at all, and I I just, uh,
the line is probably perfect. If anything, I leaned towards
the Giants and the game. Um, but I need my
Minnesota for my future or have a future on them,
which I'm probably not gonna win. Um, it's just the
game really doesn't interest me. But I'll be watching the
(32:10):
whole game. I'm watching every game this weekend. So, uh,
the line is about three and forty eight. It's it's
the the you know, the highest one of the week
total wise, so we expect some offensive firepower here. We'll
see what happens. Uh, let's get to the fun one
to bulle one, this is the game now. Now I
don't understand this game has moved up from seven yesterday
(32:33):
nine and a half solid today. All right, what's the
official announcement about Lamar? Like, what are you what are
they waiting for Saturday night Sunday to announce it. I mean,
he's probably not going to be in the game. He
didn't practice yesterday. I don't think he's gonna be in
the game. But I'm an old school guy that thinks that,
you know, you signed up for millions of dollars, you should,
You're you're supposed to play. But um, you know he
(32:55):
wants this big contract. We talked about it earlier in
the season. I don't remember the numbers, Brian, what it
guaranteed like a hundred and thirty million, and he turned
it down of two millions. Yeah, Buck thirty three, that's
what it was. Buck thirty three turned it down. Good
luck getting that now after they see the Wilson implosion
and some of the other things. Even Dak pick get
and paid all the money is to throw interceptions. So um,
(33:17):
when it was the Ravens hosting the Broncos didn't seem
like a big injury at the time. They had to
scratch and clawed their way back to beat Denver ten
to nine. And it's just been like that since Lamar
hasn't been in there, they've been scratted. They lost to
Cleveland thirteen to three. I guess it's just crazy what's
going on. But yeah, it seems like he's not gonna
(33:38):
be playing in this game either. And you can't help
but wonder if it's tied to the contract, if you're
supposed to be out for one to three weeks with
a sprained PCL. Like I, I don't understand what's taking
so long. Listen, last week's game landed on this point spread.
It landed on eleven, and when we went on air
from Cincinnati, it was like nine or eight and eighty
(34:00):
half a nine By the time the game kicked off.
There was, there was twelve and a half and thirteen,
So this game landed right in the middle there, and
and both teams, well, I'm not gonna say both teams,
but you know they both went out there and played.
Though I mean Burrow played. I mean, um this this
might be too many for for Baltimore too, But I
do like Cincinnati money line on the game, or maybe
(34:21):
even you know, I'm not a money line parlor. I guy,
I think it's a sucker bet. They charged so much
money on money line Parley's. There's some money line parlays
this weekend that just may entice s peep and I
can't lay four fifty. It's four God, I just looked
at it. I can't do it. I can't bring myself
do it. Hap the Bengals road last week while we
(34:41):
were in Cincinnati and Joe Burrow was not sharp, I
don't expect him to be as off as he was
last right, keep that in mind as well. Last one
here Monday night, this is right up your alley. Cowboys
at Tampa Cowboys at two and a half point favorite
on the road. I'm just I'm wiping the drool away
(35:05):
from my mouth right now. I can't wait for Monday night.
What do you think? I can't wait. I'm rooting for Tampa.
I'm rooting for Tampa even if I don't have a
bet on them. Um, it's again, it's it's two and
a half minus fifteen, which which means you can get
a plus three minus fifteen. That's amazing, Tom Brady playoffs.
Genius situation here, Um against Stack who's been you know,
(35:30):
I listen, I love that kid too, but he just
when he got injured that time and carded off the field,
who didn't have tears in their eyes? I mean, but
but this is he's throwing a lot of interceptions. He
doesn't look sharp coming back. Um, you know, the Dallas
is a definitely a team that that definitely even stepped
up and played without him this season. So, um, they
had a great season Tampa. I don't know. They're lucky
(35:52):
they even got in the playoffs, I think, But um,
I leaned to Tampa in this game. Isn't it great
that we have action every night? I'll have props on
this game, a lot of props on all the games
where we're gonna have a lot of fun this weekend.
Isn't it wild? Crack where dac to just throw an interception.
At bet mgm, they have at minus a dollar seventy
five to throw a pick, and I get it. He's
(36:14):
been an interception machine. He's throwing eleven in the past
seven weeks. He's tied for the most in the league.
He missed five games, crack like, he's still leading the
league in interceptions. It's been amazing. But I mean, prop
bet wise, keep that in mind. It's a lot of
juice right there. But in terms of sides, that's a
big deal. If Dad continues to turn the ball over,
(36:35):
Tampa's an even more live home dog. They are. Absolutely
it's it's it should be a fun game. It's a
great week to bet. Just be careful, guys. Don't bet
every game. Don't do what I did. No, I'm just kidding.
Don't don't don't over bet your bank roll and you're
not the bet every game on the side. Just know that,
you know, there's there's other things that about totals, props,
many ways to strike this weekend, many ways. Absolutely, Hey,
(36:57):
be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bet MGM up. It's fast and easy access to
the sports you love. Whether it's live betting, the Daily
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you join us on Sunday, Fox Sports Radios. Count Down
to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM Bill Crackenburger. Be with
(37:18):
us from crack Winds dot com, Jeff Schwartz, eight year
NFL veteran, myself Brian No. We have a lot of
fun ten am until one pm Eastern Time, leading you
right up to kickoff and hopefully a Sterling Dolphins performance
you know, led by Skyler Thompson. Probably not gonna happen,
but we'll preview all the games. Join us on Sunday.
(37:39):
We'll see you
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
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(00:23):
eight game. We're here to break it all top. Let's go,
Let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff
presented by bet mg A. Nah, We're live from your
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Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the official podcast.
(00:45):
We'll have Jared Smith, are betting analyst here and just
a little bit talking some mostly football, mostly NFL, you know,
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Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com. We'll have a heavy
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(01:09):
As promised Jared Smith with us here and Jared. Normally
we we would have this crescendo for the college football season,
which is the national championship not so much six to seven.
How's that taste? TCU Georgia just rolls, And really it
was all about the semi final games, and it made
the championship game look even worse as far as blowout
(01:33):
City was. But season is officially in the books and
the Dogs repeat. Yeah, the real Natty was Ohio State
Georgia um and we we discussed that on on on
the show Saturday, and it was I didn't think it
was gonna be as bad. But I think the part
of the handicap that I was proud of that we
were able to identify and really key in on was
(01:54):
just how good George's offenses. And we talked about Georgie's defense.
Jalen Carter is going to be an absolute monster, and
they've got a ton of five stars all over the field.
But at the end of the day, Georgia's scheme and
and Todd Munkin's ability to put people in the right
place and then steps and Bennett's ability to execute that
that that scheme to perfection on the brightest of stages,
(02:15):
I think was the story of the night. Georgia's defense
did it off. I think TCU a little overmatched offensively.
We talked, um, you know a little bit about how
Max Duggan didn't really play that well against Michigan. You know,
it wasn't very accurate, had some issues, and then Georgia
really disguised their coverage as well and made it even
more confusing for him, something Michigan didn't do well. So
I just think there's a lot of positives to take
(02:36):
from Georgia and and TCU in that game. And I
know it wasn't a fun game, Brian, but I think
it was still a really good season for the horn Frogs,
and obviously Georgia deserves all the flowers. Yeah, definitely. And
brock Bowers finally cashed for me. Yeah, yeah, I got
it on that one too. That was nice. Yeah, he's
an awesome player, and I had bet on him a
couple of times before and he wouldn't cash for me. Man,
(03:00):
he got he cashed twice. He was like a hundred
and twenties something yards. The end was props in the sixties,
so I got home twice. Should have bet the Altar
on that one, but yeah, yeah, I even bet the
alt George at twenty and a half and got two
to one on that, so it was a great and
I had a good, uh bowl season. I was profitable,
and I had to blast with you guys doing college
football this year and all the bowls and all the storylines,
(03:20):
and yeah it was it was a good season for sure.
Oh great season. And hey, we shift over to the
NFL Super wild Card weekend coming up here, six total games.
You got a bunch of notes over here, Jared, I
love this. You've been hard at work here. Give us
a note on first time playoff quarterbacks. I'm curious about this. Yeah,
and again this this this trend applies for a few
(03:44):
games this week, but there's one game in particular that
it really applies to. So first time playoff quarterbacks, you know,
making their first ever playoffs start against non first time quarterbacks. Really,
it's the Giants Vikings game. I think that you know,
exemplifies this trend. The first time playoff quarter backs are
fourteen thirty five and one against the spread. That's twenty
eight and a half percent. Last year they went oh
(04:05):
and three and they all got blasted. Kyler Murray got
blasted against the Rams, lost by twenty three. Mac Jones,
they lost by thirty against the Bills, and Jalen Hurts
looked very overmatched against the Bucks. They lost by six teens.
So Daniel Jones this Giants team, they've been very spunky
this year. I think Brian Dable deserves to be Coach
of the Year. But it's Daniel Jones first playoffs start.
(04:27):
How does he handle a road environment against a Vikings
defense that's certainly is at leaves a lot to be desired.
But again, some of the intangibles that we can't quantify
during the postseason, we'll see. Kirk Cousins has been there before.
I know he's the narrative on him is down. But
to me, that trend very actionable this weekend because first
time playoff qbs don't farewell historically. Very interesting and you know,
(04:51):
maybe you think about maybe the under in a couple
of games over here where there are a couple of
guys making their playoff debuts in the same game. You know,
think about Geno Smith of the of the Seahawks and
Brock Party of the Niners. You know, if this trend continues,
maybe you'll look at the under as well. You know,
(05:12):
something to think about. I agree, um double digit underdogs
have also not fared well. Wild Card weekend one and
seven against the spread. The only cover um was Taylor
Heineke in Washington a few years ago when they lost
by eight as a ten point dog against the Bucks.
So again, that will absolutely apply to Buffalo in Miami
this week. It might apply to San Francisco and Seattle.
(05:34):
But in general, the gaps between teams on wild Card
weekend historically they're pretty big gaps. So don't be afraid
to lay the spread, you know, lay the chalk if
you think the Bengals are gonna win. More often than not,
it's about seventy five percent of the time the team
that wins on wild Card weekend also covers the spread,
so I know it's like, oh, it's a lot of points. Well,
(05:55):
wild card weekends specifically, it hasn't been over over over
historical period of time. By the way, it's not really
a gambling note, but something that stood out to me.
We were talking about on the Sunday Countdown show where
it was shaping up to be Chargers Jags in that
early window on Saturday, because that's not the sexiest matchup
(06:15):
and here comes the Seahawks and Seahawks are like that game.
I gave out rams on Saturday. I mean that was
that was a tight game. That was my game. That
was a very tight game. But Detroit upsetting Green Bay,
which meant that Seattle got in and it is Seattle
and the forty Niners kicking things off. And how about
(06:37):
I was surprised. I'm like, whoa Chargers and Jags in
prime time on Saturday? Oh, I get it. Quarterbacks, good
quarterback matchup. And that's another interesting one because both guys
making their first career playoff starts. But of all the
quarterbacks making their first career playoffs starts this week, you
probably trust Herbert and Lawrence the most, right, That's why
that game's got some interesting back and forth nature perhaps
(06:59):
to it. Yeah, what do you have Tyler Huntley making
his debut? Thompson, I don't trust those guys as much
my fins. Jared Like, that's an interesting line because you're
just talking about the bigger spreads in Super wild Card weekend.
The biggest bread is the bill is favored by thirteen.
How are the Dolphins gonna move the ball? Here's the thing,
(07:20):
if you go back to the regular season matchup, the
Dolphins ran the ball great in Buffalo against the Bills,
but Raheem Mostard has banged up. The offensive line is
banged up with Ron Armstead. I just and you've got
Skyler tops. There's a huge difference between TWA and Skyler Thompson.
Where the Bills all they're gonna do is be like,
(07:41):
let's sell out against the run and make Skyler Thompson
prove it again and again and again that he's got
the goods to beat us, and we're betting that he doesn't. Yeah,
and and of all the games this week, this game
I have the least notes on because I just I
didn't see a whole Like I have a pal Tank Williams.
I do a lot of shows with him across a
various nowhere and he said, yeah, basically, the Chiefs and
(08:02):
the Bills have buys this week. I mean, that's that's
kind of what it feels like. And I know, you know,
the odds don't reflect that officially. Um, but it is
interesting to see Buffalo and Kansas City so close in
the futures market. To win the a f C, there
are only like ten twenty cents apart, and Buffalo has
to play a whole extra game. But we just heard Atlanta,
the neutral site for the a C Championship game if
(08:24):
it is Buffalo Kansas City. So because Buffalo's road got
so much easier this week, and then the a f
C Championship game on a neutral it really makes Buffalo
kind of a favorite, like a co favorite with the
Chiefs despite the fact that they have to play an
extra game and they're the two seed. Very interesting situation there,
(08:44):
um with the futures market in the a f C
with Buffalo and Kansas City. That's so random. Just the
whole thing is random. Where it's going to be a
neutral site potentially if it's Bills meeting the Chiefs and
it's not even in an nf in an a f
C site, you're wrangling for them or the stadium you
want that offense. Yeah, but they're gonna it's gonna be Atlanta.
(09:04):
That's just I don't know. The whole thing is out.
We'll cross that bridge if we get to it. How
about this, You've got a note here on man, it's
it's hard to beat the same team three times in
the same season. That would apply to the Seahawks and
forty Niners matchup on Saturday. What do you have on that? Yeah,
And again there's a lot of things like we have
to fill time on these on these shows, so so
(09:25):
you're gonna hear a lot of you know, cliches and
narratives throughout the course of the week. There's a lot
of historical data about the postseason and some trends that
are pretty definable. One thing you will hear a lot
this week, quote unquote, it's tough to be the t
to team three times in the same year, and so far,
at least recently, I think there's a little bit of
starts behind that. The Rams and the Niners played twice
(09:47):
during the regular season last year. The Rams lost both games.
Then in the NFC Championship Game, the Rams won that game.
Buck the trend won the Super Bowl Saints Bucks Saints
one first matchups regular season an AC division around Bucks
win that game, Bucks go on to win the Super Bowl.
There's some other prior times where a team has won
(10:08):
three Straighten Saints Panthers two thousand nine, Cowboys Eagles two
thousand eight, Steelers Ravens. Steelers won the Super Bowl that year.
That was the Santonio Holmes Um Game. So there is
some precedent for a team winning three straight. And there's
also some recent history that says it's tough to do.
So I think it's fair to say it's tough to
be the team three times in the same year. But
(10:30):
it's not a blanket statement. And Seattle Cheetos Smith. I
don't know, brock Purty maybe live. I've gone back and
forth on this one. I'm curious your thoughts. It's kind
of interesting, right because just the point spread in general,
where it's nine and a half, So it just seems
to be baiting you, doesn't it. It seems like, come on,
the water's fine, jump on in, take the nine thing
(10:53):
down a little bit. Double digits. You wait, it was
double digits now it's not. Yeah, and uh, I just
go back to I ke upon going back to Purty Palooza,
where it has just been a love fest for this
guy and it's gonna strike midnight sooner than later. I
don't know if it's this game against Seattle. My gut
feeling is that what Seattle not being able to stop
(11:14):
the run very well, that is going to have some
success on the ground and they're gonna be able to
hide brock Purty, They're gonna be able to mix him in.
I want to see if brock Purty can get it done.
If a team drastically slows down the running game, I
know it's easier and he has to throw sure, yeah,
exactly behind at any point. What's that vibe? Because they
(11:37):
and I always go back to it was the game
in Seattle between these two teams. I was, yeah, what
Ryan Fitzpatrick said at halftime? He said, the charmed life
of brock Purty. Then it was the sequence before halftime
where he threw a horrible road should have been picked
by Quandre digs right in the at the six right
(11:59):
and as Jersey dropped it, and the next thing you know,
Seattle fumbled and the forty Niners had the ball inside
the five yard line. It went from what should have
been a sure interception to your setup shot inside the
five yard line. It's it's been crazy the way it's
worked out so far for brock Purty. But all that
to be said is that the expiration date is not
(12:21):
that far away for Purty Paluza. And if you're looking
at Seattle plus nine and a half, ask yourself this
who's running? Is the public running to the betting window
to take Geno Smith and the Seahawks plus then nine
and a half, probably not, and that might be the
right side here. I agree. I think if I were
(12:42):
to bet, I haven't bet the only game I bet
so far. I did put a bet on the Vikings
at three, and we can we can go back and
forth on that one. That one. That one's gonna be
a freely fun game, and I'm sure we'll deep dive
on Saturday. But Niners Seahawks. If I were to make
it bet for this game, and there's still time, I
still might I would bet. I would take that prefer
ten obviously, but I would take the nine and a half.
(13:03):
So to your point, the Niners, and this is kind
of a nerd stat and it's also hard to predict
because turnovers are volatible, but the Niners have the most
turnover luck of any team in the NFL this season,
and literally, at the top of my notes, does that
continue in the playoffs? Like question mark? You know, like
I don't know that. That is probably one of the
toughest things. Turnovers and red zone efficiency tend to be
(13:25):
what tilts these games because going from seven to three,
you know, settling for the field goal adds up, and
the turnover margin is everything in these games. So I
don't know, I think. But on the other side, though,
Gino leads the NFL and turnover worthy plays this season,
so not exactly a glowing uh endorsement on his end
(13:45):
holding onto the ball. But you're right, I do think
at some point Party is going to commit that big turnover. Yeah, yeah,
I think he does. Uh, it's probably not gonna bite
him in this matchup. Playoffs collected could never know stranger things.
Let's leaven in this. Of all things this weekend, the
Seahawks winning out right would not be amongst the strangest.
I think if it was like a Dolphin's outright win
(14:06):
or a rave right, then that would surprise me more. Yeah,
Dolphins would surprise me the most. I think Seahawks would
probably be next in line. I do Anthony Brown. Yeah,
that's a that's a really good roster man, really good
roster over there. Um, let's get to another game here.
I'm curious Monday night, Dallas at Tampa, and you've got
(14:29):
Dallas a road favorite minus two and a half. First
impressions on this game, this matchup jared the eight and
nine Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But just like a ferocious wolverine,
just hiding behind the shrubs or something, you know, like,
do you expect them to rise up ed? Can you?
(14:50):
Can you imagine? This is the perfect setup. I don't
know if it's gonna happen, but it's the perfect setup
for the Cowboys, who have had a really strong season
so far. They looked awful against Washington last week. And
if they lose to an eight and nine team, even
though it's Tom Brady, you know, if they lose to
a sub five hundred team, oh my gosh, you cannot
(15:12):
script it better for Dallas and their history over the
last three decades, the better part and and what could
transpire here. It would be crazy if they lose this game. Yeah,
And it's funny. All the games this week are all
return matchups, and this one was literally the first week
of the year. Um. The Bucks were favored by about
(15:34):
a field goal and they won by sixteen. It was
the game Dak Prescott got hurt in. Multiple linemen were
also injured for Tampa Bay. There wasn't a touchdown scored
in that game until the third quarter. And something tells
me we see some some earlier scores in this game,
because I'm looking at the d v O A numbers
for both of these passing defenses. They were both top
(15:56):
ten weeks one through nine. They are both outside the
top eighteen since week ten. Tampa's past defense since Week
ten is in d o A. So as bad as
it looked for Dallas last week, and it was ugly,
Dak Prescott is just he's like seeing ghosts out there.
I think there will be opportunities for him to play
(16:16):
well in this game. The sharp money, from what I've
seen so far, Tampa bay three and a half to three,
then it drifted to two and a half. Now I'm
starting to see some of the buyback on Dallas a
two and a half, So I think three here is
probably the closing number right around there. And I think
if I had to pick the side right now, I
do kind of lean Tampa because I like what I've
(16:38):
seen from their offense over the last couple of weeks.
But I think the over really at forty at forty
five and a half, considering the first time these two
teams played the total was forty nine and a half,
and again first week of the year. A lot of
other factors tough to really take anything with you from
that game, but these two teams at their core were
high scoring teams, and I think the defensive number have
(17:00):
been a little below average. Dallas's secondary is also pretty
banged up still, so I could see this game being
a bit of a shootout, especially if it's Brady and
Prescott and and you know if tom falls behind like
Tampa Bay has done so many times and all of
a sudden their offense starts to play faster. We've seen
Mike Evans come out and you know, talk smack to
the Cowboys this week, So this game's got a little
(17:20):
bit of juice to it. And I would say forty
five and a half's a pretty fair total. So I
would take the over. I think would be my my
bed here. You know what's interesting is it really just
shows you in football how things are, you know, like
tied together. If you look at Tampa, just going back
to Week one, they allowed a field goal. Week two
against the Saints, they allowed ten points, and since then
(17:45):
you've seen the gradual because of Tampa's offensive line issues
and not being able to run the ball effectively all
season long, You've seen Tampa's offense struggle and in turn,
Tampa's defense struggle. But that can turn in the playoffs.
Let's say that Tampa's offense a little bit better. I
don't expect them to run the ball, but let's just
(18:05):
say Tampa's offense in this one game plays pretty well.
You're gonna see the ripple effect in Tampa's defense is
gonna play a lot better as well. So it's really
interesting to see how that can sort itself out. The
other thing to mention is when you're just thinking about
the sides of this game, you look at Dak Prescott
at bet MGM, throwing an interception is minus a dollar
(18:29):
seventy five seven straight games. He's thrown eleven in seven games.
He's tied for the league lead, and he missed five
games this year. He's been an interception machine. So I
watched some film on him, and it was like dan
Orloski did a great breakdown. It was a very simple
route combination. It was a slugo and then a wheel
(18:51):
route with Ceedee Lamb and Dalton Schultz, and like his
eyes were right there, Brian, like he was looking right
at it. And the sluggo route, the corner on Seedee
Lamb kind of squatted a little bit. And if you've
got Seedee Lamb one on one on a slant and go,
and the corner even just hiccups. That's where I'm going
with the football, And he's staring right at it and
(19:11):
it just goes away from it and then throws a
late curl to the other side of the field and
it gets deflected, almost intercepted. So I just don't know
if he's predetermining where he wants to go with the ball,
but he ain't seeing it right now. And if you're
not seeing it in the playoffs on the road against
the team that is defensive minded in nature, sure it
(19:32):
could be ugly. Now it could go the other way
because Dax had the upside too. But I don't know
if I trust he deaf. He doesn't. He looks like
he's not trusting his eyes. And if he's not trusting
his eyes, how can I trust it with my money? No,
it's it's a great point. And I also think about
Todd Bowles where he if we realize that, he realizes it,
and he's gonna throw some different coverages and different looks
(19:55):
and try to confuse him even more. So that's something
to think about. On the flip side, think of it.
The we could go back and forth all day on
this year. It's not to disagree with you, but I'm
just thinking this, who's running game is more likely to
take pressure off of its quarterback? Whose offensive line is
more likely to take pressure off of its quarterback? It's Dallas,
(20:15):
Like Dac has the advantage in this game where if
anybody's gonna run the ball effectively, I expect it to
be Dallas. So Tom Brady is gonna have to do
a lot more most likely than Dac will in this game.
And so that's where it's we're kind of like playing tennis.
I play tennis with myself. Uh well, the medical gymnastics
involved with handicapping and NFL game, yes, absolutely, very it.
(20:40):
Don't you almost outthink yourself? Sometimes you really do. And
now granted we have we have a lot of time
to fill on shows and podcasts, so we have to
put in the legwork. And then the more the deeper
down the rabbit hole, like oh, sometimes, Brian, it's almost
a detriment, it really is. Yeah, I know, right, Yeah,
Typically the a lot of times, your initial impression of
(21:03):
a game, yes, I think you're you're gonna be hitting
higher percentage, and then when you still do that, a
lot in double tournament. I fell out to bracket site, unseen,
no data, no, just fill it out, boom. And then
I put that aside and I like stash it in
like a lock box somewhere for three weeks, and then
I do all my normal research and then I pull
(21:23):
out the other one later and I see how far
off I was, and you're right, it's it's it's you're like, damn,
I should have just stuck with the original. I would.
I could have saved all this time doing all of
this work that sound smart on radio and TV. So
I'll can start doing that, put it away, put it
about it again, totally forget about it, and then when
(21:44):
you do your deep dives and what your picks turned
out to be. Yeah, yeah, it's like an experiment. It's
a social experiment. I do that sometimes with games too.
I'll write down my initial leans and then I'll go
back and then I'll see how far off I was,
you know. I love it. Like my mom won the
Office March Madness Pool like three years in a row,
(22:06):
and she doesn't follow college basket call at all, and
some of that trans translates to what we're doing here.
It could be as ridiculous as in a fight cowboy
or a buccaneer, Right, right, right, which which colored jersey
is better that day? I like the alternate uniforms that
they're gonna be wearing, so I'll bet on no doubt. Well,
(22:26):
we'll have a lot of fun on Saturday previewing everything.
We have two games on Saturday, right, we got the
double header and we'll preview that and the rest of
the Super wild Card weekend slate will be from nine
am until noon Eastern Time on Fox Sports Radio. It's
Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM, joined myself, Brian No,
(22:47):
Jared Smith, betting analyst, and rich Ord Burger, the Penn
State All American. We'll have all the breakdowns for you
and a lot of fun as well. Earn a fifty
dollar bonus by signing into bet MGM and clicking on
refer a friend to invite a friend, and in just
a few simple steps, both you and your friend will
receive a fifty dollar bonus bet MGM, the King of
Sports Books. I want to welcome in here Bill Crackenburger,
(23:08):
sports handicapper from crack wins dot com, and I have
heard from a trusted source crack that you are one
super excited for Super wild Card weekend and you are
betting like a madman over here. As my information correct,
I probably have never been more excited for a NFL
(23:28):
weekend than this weekend. I am really excited. Saturday, we've
got two games, Sunday three games, and then throwing Monday
night football for a playoff game, A wild Card playoff game.
Are you kidding me? This is a really exciting week
And you know I said it before. I've wager a
healthy five figures already on stuff I normally don't do that.
(23:49):
It's nothing to do but the game's being on TV.
But I know everyone out there that's listening is going
to have bets on these games because they're on TV.
Come on, you don't have to do that. But we'll
have on our Sunday show, we'll have some NFL player
props and things that you can bet on, besides betting
the games themselves, which is sometimes really hard to beat.
(24:10):
But I think we should go over game by game,
starting with the Seattle San fran game one thirty five
Pacific time on Saturday. UM, this is gonna be a
surprise to you. Probably I haven't found anyone that likes Seattle.
Not one, I mean the one everyone is on San
(24:33):
Fran What does that mean? That means Jason over at
bet MGM and the sports books will all be on Seattle.
And uh, you know, I think this is uh, if
this is a there's one ten out there right now
at ten minus a dollar fifteen. Um. I I just
think that that's too many points for Seattle. And you know,
normally I'll always say this point dogs of nine or more.
(24:55):
I usually love I don't love it, but I leaned
towards Seattle. Here. I leaned towards Seattle. Also because I
keep on talking about brock Purty. I call it purty Palooza,
just the love fest for brock Purty, Mr Irrelevant, who
has played well. I'll give him his flowers to a degree.
He's played well in the regular season against teams like Arizona,
(25:16):
and you know, like Arizona, like Arizona, and let's see
who else do they they play down this stretch? You
know a lot of non playoff teams, you know what
I mean? So I think the credit goes beyond where
it should be. The Saints, they beat the Cardinals twice, actually, Um, yeah, yeah,
(25:42):
I know someone about fifteen thousand on San fran plus
four and a half the one that that's no dummy
to win the Super Bowl on two on Monday, So
um that that's probably the wise. I love the roster crack,
I love San Francisco's roster, but there's just too much
positivity for a three string rookie quarterback from the seventh round.
(26:04):
Like if you're Seattle, I know they don't stop the
rush very well, but if you're going into this game,
I think you're saying, let's do everything we can to
slow down the running game, because we know in that
Kyle Shanahan offense, the passing game is dependent on a
good running game. And if you're able to slow down
that running game and put way more pressure on Brock Purty,
(26:25):
can you force an interception or two? If you can,
you're in business. So I just look at it from
that standpoint. If they're able to slow down the running
game more than we're expecting, they are a live dog
in this one. Live dog, beautiful beautiful. How about Chargers Jags,
Chargers and two point favorite on the road. I don't
(26:45):
get it. I really don't know. Not feeling justin Herbert
and his debut here. I don't get the line a line.
This line opened up at two went out to pick
them all Jacksonville money now all heavy heavy Charger money.
I mean this game uh here in town at Circle,
which makes the lines for a lot of the sports
books minus two and a half, minus fifteen, minus two
(27:06):
and a half everywhere, a couple other books minus two
and a half minus fifteen. I'm just not sold on
on the Chargers. But then again, I understand that Jacksonville
is not one of the super Bowl either. They barely
got in. They should have lost last week. So, um,
I do get it. I I kind of like the
(27:27):
Jaguars a little bit here. Um maybe in play and
I'm sorry, you know, but there's certain places you get
at teasers. I kind of like them there, but I
just don't know. Um, it's hard to trust. It's it's
hard to trust Trevor Lawrence too, so I surely understand why.
I'll probably stay off the game though, But but it's
(27:49):
still a great game to watch. It's lined perfect. I
guess you know, pick them one too. They supposed to
be tight, good games, So we'll see what's gonna happen here.
I I um, I'll tell you what I leaned towards
the over there. So I may bet a first half
over twenty three and a half. There's something I may bet. Hmm, interesting,
I uh, I think too. Even though Joey Bosa got
(28:12):
a little bit nicked up last week, I don't know
why he's playing against Denver in a meaningless game and
Mike Williams got banged up to ridiculous. But if you
look at that Chargers pass rush Khalil Mack Joey Bosa,
you've got a banged up Jacksonville offensive line. I could
see Trevor Lawrence trying to just get rid of the
(28:32):
football and making a bad decision or facing a decent
pass rush. So I could see, uh, Trevor Lawrence turning
the ball over in this game. And if that happens,
if you're thinking about it from a sides perspective, that's
gonna have an impact. If you're thinking about it from
a prop perspective, I think Trevor Lawrence throwing a pick.
And what would be his first playoff game? It seems
like he's already played one, like last week was a
(28:55):
makeshift playoff game. But this is his playoff debut and
against a re o pass rush. Yeah, you might see
a costly interception or two in this one. How about
this Dolphins Bills? I love when you go on your
tangents here, crack, you're at the Uh you know you're
on the soapbox over here. Soap boxes aren't automatically bad.
I love soapboxes. Sometimes you don't think that the Bill
(29:17):
should be getting all these points just because T isn't
gonna be playing here. Listen, it's gonna be a great moment. Uh.
You know, the kid, the kid that got hurt actually
may even be at the game. My god, imagine if
he's at the game. I mean, Buffalo will go absolutely crazy. Uh,
it's so great he's out of the hospital recovering. Oh
my god, this this is a miracle. Really, so him
(29:40):
at the game. Maybe a Buffalo first half might be
a good play. But for the game itself, I don't
know if any quarterback they announced two out, is any
quarterback into the whole league works seven points this game
when yesterday you could have had minus seven minus twenty
minus seven minus twenty five. It's thirteen solid yesterday, I
mean right now, yesterday. It was what it was, thirteen
(30:01):
and a half. There was even a rogue fourteen here
in town. So I don't know if any quarterbacksport that.
I am not laying that many points on Buffalo. Miami
played them so good this season. I understand the situational
disft differences at the quarterback and stuff, but um, Miami
beating them once in Buffalo, playing tough up in Buffalo.
They were training out in the cold weather. Um for
(30:21):
that game. I uh, and and really upstate people asked
past me today. I was on another show this morning.
Oh Buffalo teasing down to six from thirteen. I think
I in their minds that don't don't be a sucker, man,
don't be there to come on. Don't know. No one
teases double digit favorites or double double digit dog that's ridiculous.
I'll just tell you right now. Um, this is gonna
(30:44):
be a fun game to watch. I am gonna probably
just be rooting for Miami with the points and and
I look forward to the to the festivities. If there is, uh,
there's still a couple of sevens out there in the
first half, it might be a good grab. So we'll
see what happened. Man crack Uh. The Dolphins are my
team since I was a kid, and I know you're
(31:06):
gonna hate me for this, but I agree with you,
Buffalo first half might be a really good bet. I
just can't bring myself to do it. I can't do it.
I know you're loyal to your bankroll, and that's fine.
I'm I'm still loyal to the Fins. I just I
can't pull for Buffalo, even for a first half. And
like I might be kicking myself while they're up by
ten at halftime, Like at least I got a cashed
(31:28):
in on this, but I just can't bring myself to
do it. Can't do it, No, I hear you. How
about Giants Vikings? You got the Vikings and all their wins,
great record for the season, but they're just a three
point standard standard home favorite against Daniel Jones and company.
What do you think about this? Probably the most least
(31:49):
interesting game that for me of the week. I have
nothing on this at all, and I I just, uh,
the line is probably perfect. If anything, I leaned towards
the Giants and the game. Um, but I need my
Minnesota for my future or have a future on them,
which I'm probably not gonna win. Um, it's just the
game really doesn't interest me. But I'll be watching the
(32:10):
whole game. I'm watching every game this weekend. So, uh,
the line is about three and forty eight. It's it's
the the you know, the highest one of the week
total wise, so we expect some offensive firepower here. We'll
see what happens. Uh, let's get to the fun one
to bulle one, this is the game now. Now I
don't understand this game has moved up from seven yesterday
(32:33):
nine and a half solid today. All right, what's the
official announcement about Lamar? Like, what are you what are
they waiting for Saturday night Sunday to announce it. I mean,
he's probably not going to be in the game. He
didn't practice yesterday. I don't think he's gonna be in
the game. But I'm an old school guy that thinks that,
you know, you signed up for millions of dollars, you should,
You're you're supposed to play. But um, you know he
(32:55):
wants this big contract. We talked about it earlier in
the season. I don't remember the numbers, Brian, what it
guaranteed like a hundred and thirty million, and he turned
it down of two millions. Yeah, Buck thirty three, that's
what it was. Buck thirty three turned it down. Good
luck getting that now after they see the Wilson implosion
and some of the other things. Even Dak pick get
and paid all the money is to throw interceptions. So um,
(33:17):
when it was the Ravens hosting the Broncos didn't seem
like a big injury at the time. They had to
scratch and clawed their way back to beat Denver ten
to nine. And it's just been like that since Lamar
hasn't been in there, they've been scratted. They lost to
Cleveland thirteen to three. I guess it's just crazy what's
going on. But yeah, it seems like he's not gonna
(33:38):
be playing in this game either. And you can't help
but wonder if it's tied to the contract, if you're
supposed to be out for one to three weeks with
a sprained PCL. Like I, I don't understand what's taking
so long. Listen, last week's game landed on this point spread.
It landed on eleven, and when we went on air
from Cincinnati, it was like nine or eight and eighty
(34:00):
half a nine By the time the game kicked off.
There was, there was twelve and a half and thirteen,
So this game landed right in the middle there, and
and both teams, well, I'm not gonna say both teams,
but you know they both went out there and played.
Though I mean Burrow played. I mean, um this this
might be too many for for Baltimore too, But I
do like Cincinnati money line on the game, or maybe
(34:21):
even you know, I'm not a money line parlor. I guy,
I think it's a sucker bet. They charged so much
money on money line Parley's. There's some money line parlays
this weekend that just may entice s peep and I
can't lay four fifty. It's four God, I just looked
at it. I can't do it. I can't bring myself
do it. Hap the Bengals road last week while we
(34:41):
were in Cincinnati and Joe Burrow was not sharp, I
don't expect him to be as off as he was
last right, keep that in mind as well. Last one
here Monday night, this is right up your alley. Cowboys
at Tampa Cowboys at two and a half point favorite
on the road. I'm just I'm wiping the drool away
(35:05):
from my mouth right now. I can't wait for Monday night.
What do you think? I can't wait. I'm rooting for Tampa.
I'm rooting for Tampa even if I don't have a
bet on them. Um, it's again, it's it's two and
a half minus fifteen, which which means you can get
a plus three minus fifteen. That's amazing, Tom Brady playoffs.
Genius situation here, Um against Stack who's been you know,
(35:30):
I listen, I love that kid too, but he just
when he got injured that time and carded off the field,
who didn't have tears in their eyes? I mean, but
but this is he's throwing a lot of interceptions. He
doesn't look sharp coming back. Um, you know, the Dallas
is a definitely a team that that definitely even stepped
up and played without him this season. So, um, they
had a great season Tampa. I don't know. They're lucky
(35:52):
they even got in the playoffs, I think, But um,
I leaned to Tampa in this game. Isn't it great
that we have action every night? I'll have props on
this game, a lot of props on all the games
where we're gonna have a lot of fun this weekend.
Isn't it wild? Crack where dac to just throw an interception.
At bet mgm, they have at minus a dollar seventy
five to throw a pick, and I get it. He's
(36:14):
been an interception machine. He's throwing eleven in the past
seven weeks. He's tied for the most in the league.
He missed five games, crack like, he's still leading the
league in interceptions. It's been amazing. But I mean, prop
bet wise, keep that in mind. It's a lot of
juice right there. But in terms of sides, that's a
big deal. If Dad continues to turn the ball over,
(36:35):
Tampa's an even more live home dog. They are. Absolutely
it's it's it should be a fun game. It's a
great week to bet. Just be careful, guys. Don't bet
every game. Don't do what I did. No, I'm just kidding.
Don't don't don't over bet your bank roll and you're
not the bet every game on the side. Just know that,
you know, there's there's other things that about totals, props,
many ways to strike this weekend, many ways. Absolutely, Hey,
(36:57):
be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bet MGM up. It's fast and easy access to
the sports you love. Whether it's live betting, the Daily
Lions Boost or the cash Out feature. New users can
use the code Countdown for a special offer. Make sure
you join us on Sunday, Fox Sports Radios. Count Down
to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM Bill Crackenburger. Be with
(37:18):
us from crack Winds dot com, Jeff Schwartz, eight year
NFL veteran, myself Brian No. We have a lot of
fun ten am until one pm Eastern Time, leading you
right up to kickoff and hopefully a Sterling Dolphins performance
you know, led by Skyler Thompson. Probably not gonna happen,
but we'll preview all the games. Join us on Sunday.
(37:39):
We'll see you
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