January 19, 2023 • 40 mins
Brian Noe previews the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs with the sharpest minds in betting! FSR Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to dive into all 4 matchups and break down how you can capitalize on alternate lines. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to highlight some props and totals that he is hot on for this weekend!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
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Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet mgm d podcast. Over here.
(00:46):
We'll have Jared Smith, betting analyst. In just a minute.
We'll also have Bill Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com
sports handicapper. I'm Brian. Note. New users download the bet
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for that code countdown in the bet MGM app. Oh,
we've got the divisional playoffs. Let it wash over you.
(01:06):
Let's welcome in Jared Smith here, betting analyst. Jared. I
just hope that the divisional round is as epic as
most of the wild Card round. Sorry, super wild Card
weekend was because we had some freaking classics. I can't
believe my Dolphins almost pulled off a stunner right there.
That was amazing. Yeah, that was a tighter game than
(01:27):
I think a lot of people expected. But if you
look at what Josh Allen has done this year, very volatile.
I mean, this is a team that lost to the Jets.
Remember last year in that game in Week eighteen lost
the Jag or not week A team, but at some
point last year they lost to the Jags. I forget
which week, um, but there's there's obviously some upside, but
there's a lot of outside I think with Josh Allen's
(01:49):
game right now. So should be interesting this week against
Joe Coop and the Bengals and what should be a
very emotional rematch. Yeah, very emotional, no doubt about that.
Let's start it off with the last game of the menu.
It's a speed right oight ahead the Sunday night. You've
got your eye on the Niners. We might get some
healthy disagreement over here because I'm on the Cowboys on
(02:10):
this one, but I want to hear your rationale. Why
do you like the Niners in spite of their Mr
Irrelevant quarterback who's on a magic carpet ride right now. Yeah,
I don't think there's that. I mean, you know, everything
I've heard this week, and it almost in in satire
in jest, people saying, oh, well, brock parties first road start,
now it's his first start against a good team. Now
(02:30):
it's his first playoffs start. Eventually, I think we just
have to come to the conclusion that he's in the
perfect situation. And I think the thing that really stood
out to me when I dug into the numbers is
how much better and more efficient he's playing when under duress.
For example, when under pressure this season, his turn Now,
I know it's a it's a small sample, but we're
(02:51):
getting to the point where he's played a bunch of
games in some tougher spots, so I think we can
take something from it. When under pressure this year, his
turnover worthy play rate actually drops by half a percent,
and his big time throw rate actually increases by over
two percent. Same thing. When facing the Blitz, turnover worthy
play rate drops, big time throw rate, adjusted accuracy is
(03:12):
basically the same. So unlike most quarterbacks period rookie, non rookie,
Hall of Fame, non Hall of Fame, he is showing
an ability to stay cool under pressure, which is something
he is going to have to do a lot of
this week against a very good pass rush that got
a lot of pressure on Tom Brady on Monday night. Now,
the one thing I will say on the other side
(03:33):
for the Cowboys is I don't know if Doc is
going to play as efficiently as he did. If he does,
then the Cowboys are absolutely live in this game. But
if you were going to take the last six weeks
of quarterback play in the NFL and you were gonna
take Brock Purdy and compare him to Dak Prescott, Purdy's
numbers against the Blitz and his ability to keep control
of the football not turn it over light years ahead
(03:54):
of where Doc is. So that's gonna be the key.
Just like we saw over the weekend, turnovers are are
are the key. If if the Niners can continue to
play clean football, and if that kind of falls back
into some of those habits we saw from earlier, you know,
a few weeks ago, especially in that game against Washington,
then I really think San Francisco could roll in this game. Wow,
rolling it Okay, I look at obviously, turnovers a big deal,
(04:18):
no doubt about that. I agree with you there. As
far as the running games, I think that Dallas gotta
play pretty good rush defense because the Niners they've been
running over everybody. They've averaged over a hundred fifty yards
on the ground since Purdy has taken over. If Dallas
is able to slow down, I'm not saying stop, but
slow down San Francisco's running game and put more on
(04:42):
Purdy's plate. Maybe you force him into a mistake, maybe
force him into a key turnover, because he should have
had a couple of interceptions in the first half against
the Seahawks last week, and the Seahawks don't play outstanding defense.
So I think that's a big, big deal is how
well does Dallas rush defense play, because there's obviously a
(05:02):
ripple effect if they're able to play well. Yeah, and
I think the you know your your our eyes tell
us that maybe Purty should have committed a few more turnovers,
but again, the numbers don't indicate that he had zero
turnover worth he plays against Seattle. I know the first
throw of the game, the wet ball, and it was
kind of a quack duck and it kind of fell
harmlessly into the turf, and then you get to give
the kid one drive and his first playoff drive, he
(05:24):
was a little jittery, but he was nails from that
point on. So the numbers say that that Brock has
been playing much cleaner than than Dak has the last
few weeks. Um. The one thing I will say, the
Niners defense has been a little susceptible to the deep pass.
Gino Smith had a pretty solid success right on dropbacks
last week. DK Metcalf had a good game, so I
could absolutely see Ceedee Lamb and that Dallas offense having
(05:46):
some explosion in the passing game, but I do not
see them running the football effectively at all. Uh. The
Niners are first and inefficiency this year thirty success rate
allowed on running plays. I think it's going to be
that like it is all going to be on Dak's shoulders,
where I think there's can be a little more balanced
with the Niners offense. And also, let's be honest, the
Niners offense is much more versatile than the Cowboys are.
(06:07):
Tony Pollard is kind of the exception to that rule,
but for the most part, this is a Cowboys offense
that wants to run it down your throat and then
have dak go deep, So the Niners can beat you
in so many different ways. I don't know where Deebo
Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are gonna line up on any
given play. And then Kittle is obviously an X factor,
and I think both tight ends could be a factor
in this game as well. The injuries are certainly noteworthy
(06:28):
too for Dallas. Um did Jason Peter's injury at left
tackle could be big. And then also their their best
tackling safety, j Ron Curse got nicked up in that
game against the Bucks too. And and you know it's
a short week. They played Monday. They have to play
now Saturday or Sunday, so they get one fewer day
of of prep. And the Niners played Saturday, so they
get two extra days off. In addition to the travel factor,
(06:48):
you know they get Dallas going from Campa Bay back
to Dallas, then California. It's their fourth straight road games.
So I can come up with a lot of small,
little intangibles that I think point in the niners favor,
But the crux of this handicap is absolutely going to
be the quarterback play and and which quarterback makes the
first mistake. Brock could certainly make that first mistake, but
the numbers say DA's been making more of them. So
I'll go with my numbers here and and and say, Daca,
(07:10):
you know Brock plays a cleaner game than Dack does. Well,
I'll say two things, uh, maybe three things, maybe nine things.
I don't know, but like I don't know the suits
or like the like the lab coat suits, you know,
not like the uh you know, like management suits with
the actual ones. But whoever came up with the turnover worthy?
(07:31):
If Brock Purty throws a ball and it hits a
linebacker's hands, that's turnover worthy to me. But I don't know,
we're just kind of like, uh, disagree on that one.
I think all of the things that you've mentioned makes sense,
But the lines three and a half, like you just
lifted off a good ten things right there as to
why you're on the niners, which is fine, it's all
(07:53):
sound reasoning. And yet the line is three and a half.
It's the shortest line of the week that stinks to me.
That stands out to me quite a bit. And there's
no doubt everything boils down to I think for the Cowboys,
how well does Dak play and can he protect the football,
because even though he was clean last week against Tampa,
(08:14):
it had been seven straight games where he had thrown
an interception, so that could be a big, big deal.
We saw a turnover swing the game last week. Seattle
was in that thing and Gino Smith fumbled. It was
a six point game and that was definitely the turning
point in that one. So all eyes will be on
that on Sunday night on Fox. By the way, definitely
check that out. Okay, so we've got also let's get
(08:36):
to the props here, Jared, because you're on Mr Kelsey
over here, and you can't bet on Jason Kelsey with
the prop bets the the Eagles center, So we'll go
Travis Kelsey and the Chiefs over here. What do you
see from Travis? Yeah? Again, this is the biggest total
of the week, highest total of the week, so I
would expect points, right. I think this is a decent
prop game because we do expect there to be the
(08:59):
most down scored in any game, at least according to
the odds makers should be in this one. So I
think that that's where I'll be heavy prop based to
the over and I think Kelsey is the guy I'll target,
and it's because the Jaguars really struggled at the fen
tight ends. I mean, you look at the full season numbers,
their thirty second and DVO against tight ends. You can't
get worse than that. And then you look at the
(09:20):
matchup last week against Gerald Everett six for one on
nine in a touchdown. Travis Kelsey also is the guy
in the postseason when Patrick Mahomes feels pressure and when
he's in big games, Travis Kelsey is the security blanket
at least seven targets at least ninety five yards in
six straight postseason games. He has scored a touchdown in
five of his last six postseason games. The only one
(09:42):
he didn't was the Super Bowl against the Bucks, when
nobody on the Chiefs scored a touchdown in that game.
So I certainly can't fault Travis. But there is a
lot of positive um momentum, I would say, and and
certainly the statistics back up Travis Kelsey having a big
game against the Jags. There is one prop bet I've
got my eye on right now. I'm looking at old
Daniel Jones, Danny Dimes, New York Giants quarterback obviously, and
(10:06):
I'm looking at his passing total here, it's at two
sixteen and a half and he's just off the big
game against Minnesota. Minnesota's past defense is brutal. He threw
for over three hundred yards in the playoff game last
week and also the regular season matchup. And I think
that you're getting Daniel Jones under at the right time
(10:27):
because you look at the Eagles, They've got the best
pass defense in football. They gave up the fewest yards
per game, they gave up the fewest yards you know,
total throughout the season against the past. And I think
in this one, Jared after a bye week, I think
this is gonna be an uphill battle for the g men.
And hey, look, maybe it goes painfully wrong and the
(10:49):
Eagles are up comfortably late and Daniel Jones is doing
his Tom Brady impression from last week and racking up
some garbage time passing yards. Could go wrong, But you
look at Daniel Joe, just look at his numbers per
game passing wise, and you're gonna see a lot of oh.
Because you see this line is that he just got
to get to to seventeen. Well against Indy won seventy
(11:12):
seven against Washington won sixty against Philadelphia in the regular
season matchup one six nine. I like the under for
Danny Dimes here, Yeah and again I'll echo this. I
just looked it up. He's only gone over this number
and four out of seventeen games, two of them were
against the Vikings. So and obviously under in both games
(11:33):
against the Eagles this year one sixty nine, and then
didn't play in the second one, so that that one's
a moot point. Um. I would even take it a
step further and bet all of his receivers under as well.
I saw all three of them Hodgens, Um, Slaton and
James all at right in the mid forties. I think
there's a decent chance that two out of the three,
(11:54):
if not all three, stay under. So I think this
is this is the week to bet under on the
Giants props because you're coming off You're right, you totally
nailed that. You're coming off of a week where they
could do no wrong. The numbers for the Giants offense
against the Vikings. They made Isaiah Hodgens look like Randy Moss.
Isaiah Hodgens had half of his He has about like
(12:14):
three and ninety yards on the year, receiving. He had
half of that in two games against Minnesota the entire season,
two games against the same team. So I just think
it's gonna be a massive, massive step up in class
for that Giants offense this week. And I would not
be surprised if there's a lot of public money on
the Giants because of what they saw last week. And
that's usually a good bet to hop off the train.
(12:37):
How about this, Because we're always looking for a work
around in life. You know, if you're driving to work
and the road is blocked, you don't just say, well,
I guess I don't have work today. You gotta find
another path, you know, And you found a path over
at bet MGM Jared. You're looking for a teaser, right,
You're looking at Bengals Eagles, and uh, you know you
(12:59):
gotta go the on line route, which is the same
as a teaser. But if you just explain to everybody
what the workaround is and how you're on the Bengals
and Eagles, well, teasers are a very useful tool um
in the playoffs because the lines are as sharp as
they've been all seasoned. So if the NFL is the
most efficient market and we are at the point in
(13:21):
the season where there's only a handful of games left
and the lines are the most efficient they've all been
all years, So we've got the most efficient market and
the lines are as sharp as they've been all season. Well,
then theoretically, if you manipulate those numbers in your favor,
you should have a lot of success. And historically speaking,
if you pick your teaser spots right, you have had
a lot of success in the NFL postseason. Unfortunately, bet
(13:42):
MGM doesn't offer the traditional teaser route, but this is
a cheaper route actually, and frankly, this is a better
route because a lot of sports books today they know
that you have an edge on teaser, so what they
do is take jack up the price, which is that's
what I would do too if I knew I was
getting beat by something. But this route, actually, all you're
doing is you're betting the alternate line and you're par
(14:03):
laying them together. So if you go to the you know,
each subsection of these two games we're gonna give you,
you'll be able to find the alternate lines you par
lay them together, and actually the price is cheaper than
your standard teaser price at a lot of shops which
is typically around minus one thirty minus one forty. These days,
I don't like to spend more than minus one twenty
(14:23):
when I bet a teaser. This one is minus one sixteen.
It is a very fair price, and it's the Eagles
moving through both key numbers from seven and a half
down to one and a half, and the Bengals moving
up through one key number and some secondary keys from
five and a half to eleven and a half. So
it's a pretty simple parlay. We're taking alternate lines, we're
manipulating the numbers in our favor, we're par laying them together,
(14:45):
and we're getting a price that's pretty fair at minus
one sixteen. So that's my teaser of the week. I
think the Eagles win. I think obviously what we just
said about the Giants having having a struggle offensively. And
in this other game Bengals Bills, I see this game
being closed, and I'll close with this number. When Jamaar
Chase has been in the lineup for Cincinnati, they've gone
twenty one straight games without losing by more than a
field goal. So I just see that Bengals Bills game
(15:06):
being nip and talk back and forth, and I see
it being close, and I'll gladly take eleven and a
half points in my back pocket. With Joe Burrow, I
like it. Yeah, Bengals offensive line is banged up quite
a bit. He might have three starters out. But the
first thing I think of was last season, Jared like,
if you look at their offensive line, they give up
nineteen sacks in the postseason. Now they're playing four games,
(15:28):
but do the math. That's still freaking horrendous. That's almost
five sacks per game that they gave up, and they
were a whisker away from winning the whole thing. So
I initially think, oh gosh, Oe lines banged up, and
then I'm like, yeah, well they were banged up in
awful last year and they they still one game, so
I would agree with you. I think it's gonna be
a close game. It's not like Miami was at full
strength last week and that was a field goal game
(15:50):
against Buffalo. And again, the one thing about Joe Burrow
is he's made the adjustment. I mean, if if we're
talking about how much he's getting sacked and how that's
a detriment to what the Bengals aspirations are, I'm sure
he hears about it too, and I'm sure he knows
about it. Joe Burrow has the second shortest time to
throw rate this year behind Tom Brady, and there's not
a big gap between those two guys. I mean, he's
(16:12):
getting it and he's delivering it at a very quick rate,
and it's negating some of that pass rush. So yes,
I think the move that we saw in the Bengals
Bills game this week, line opened around four and a
half got bumped up to five five and a half.
Total opened around the forty nine and a half fifty
range got knocked down to forty eight and a half.
(16:32):
And I think that's because of the offensive line issues
for for Cincinnati. But if Joe makes the proper adjustment
and continues to get the ball out at a very
judicious pace, then I don't think it's gonna matter as much.
And maybe that line moves a bit overstated. Yeah, And
less thing I'll say Jared is I don't expect Burrow
to be like Tom Brady was last week. But in
(16:55):
terms of what Brady throw it's sixty six times. That
was crazy. But I think that Burrow you saw it
in their game against the Ravens. Chris collins Worth kept
on harping on this. He was like, he's got to
throw the ball real fast because he doesn't have time
right like and against Buffalo, I could see that being
the case. I would watch for his attempts to be
way up there. I would look for his completions in
(17:17):
the game to be way up there. You might be
able to take advantage of that in the prop bet market.
Because I also looked at it from this standpoint because
Burrow he didn't have gaudy numbers last week against the Ravens.
He was twenty three of thirty two for two oh
nine and a touchdown, but the Bengals only had fifty
offensive plays. If you look at the Ravens, they ran
(17:38):
the ball really effectively and they won the time of
possession battle. So if it's a different deal against Buffalo.
Buffalo they don't run the ball like the Ravens do,
so if they score quick or they on the Bengals
get the ball right back, I think that Burrow is
gonna have to throw the ball short a lot, and
I think that the attempts and the completions could act
(18:00):
work out for you if you look at that. I agree,
and on the defensive side lu and a romo. We've
talked about him a lot this year. I think he's
he's maked. He makes the best adjustments in game that
I think I've ever seen any defensive coordinator make. And
the one detriment though he has a bit of a
banged up secondary, and if Eli Apple gets gets targeted
like he was last week five times gave up the
(18:22):
touchdown to the Marcus Robinson, him on Stefon Biggs really
scares me. And if Josh Allen can kind of manipulate
that matchup and massage Eli Apple into some into some difficult,
difficult spots, I can see this Bill's offense being pretty explosive.
That's why I was surprised when the total dropped, and
I understand it's because of the Bengals offense and what
(18:43):
Joe Burrow might have to deal with, you know, a
lot of short, quick passes. But man, I I see
Josh Allen having a lot of success to at times
and also a lot of volatility with all the turnovers.
So this total which went down, I could see it
going back up this weekend. So if you do like
the over and you think there's gonna be points, I
think and a half, which is what I'm seeing now
(19:03):
as we're recording is is is the absolute bare bottom
floor and this total will only increase as we head
into the weekend. Hey, good stuff, man, He's Jared Smith,
betting analysts. Join Jared, myself, Brian though and Rich Ornberger
Penn State All American. On Saturday, Let's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM, will be on Fox Sports Radio
(19:24):
nine am until noon Eastern time. Get you all set
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sports books. All right, want to welcome in here Bill
Crack and Burger sports handicapper from crack wins dot com.
(19:48):
He's joining us here on the podcast. I'm Brian No, okay, Crack.
We're all set for the divisional round of the playoffs. Man,
and uh, you're looking to you're looking to steamroll through
another week. Your picks on the show have been tremendous.
You did admit that it wasn't a great week in
Super wild Card weekend, but I'm sure you're gonna be
right back on the right side of things here very shortly.
(20:11):
I did. Uh. You know, it's funny I lost last week,
but yet on the show, I gave out some really
good stuff, uh and and held my own on the show.
But so that happens. You know, I'm giving out, trying
trying to give about the best stuff on the show,
and um, sometimes that happened. I've bet a lot of
props last weekend. I lost on a lot of props.
You know, when you have high scoring games. I bet
(20:31):
a lot of unders last week. And let me just
tell you, uh, lots of volume towards game time causes
a lot it cost. Is really a lot of the
sites you can get some great value towards kickoff on
playoff games. So a lot of my props are gonna
be more towards game time and more towards the under.
I'm sure so under on players. So I don't know
(20:53):
if we're gonna have the high scoring fireworks that we
had last weekend. Literally, anyone that bet over on any
game one or pushed even the Dallas game you should
have pushed show. Uh, it was that that type of
week in the NFL. So it's a fireworks making up
for a lot of the unders earlier in the year.
It's been an under year drawing the regular excuson. That's
pretty crazy. Yeah, I was just gonna say, sometimes I've
(21:15):
saved my worst for the show apparent like never been
a couple of weeks when we're in Cincinnati. I had
a couple of picks on air. I did great betting
wise that week, but my picks on the air, I
had Indie minus whatever. It was like two and a
half because I didn't think the Texans were stupid enough
to screw up the first overall pick, and then what happened,
crack It's like a mini Hail Mary towards the end
(21:36):
of the game that they scored on then he went
for the two point conversion and that pick just blew
up right there. But it was a good betting weekend,
so it's just weird. It's weird how that works. I
was on Tom Brady his over attempts last week and
that was an easy cash. I was on the over
of Giants Minnesota over first first quarter, so I did
(21:56):
pretty well. On the show last week, Crack. So that's good.
Let's keep them on and them going. We're looking at
the divisional round over here. Let's start with the nightcap
on Sunday night. This is the one I'm most interested in.
Cowboys forty Niners. Just your thoughts on the game as
you begin to look at it, Crack, what do you see?
I think Tampa made Dallas look better than they are
(22:19):
in that game, and it's reflective in the line, the
line being four. Um. I mean, I'm not betting san Fran,
but I look at the offensive power of San Fran
from a you and Deebot and McCaffrey, and I mean this,
this is this is really even though they got the
rookie in there at quarterback, they are just a more
(22:40):
talented bunch when they're healthy. Uh. And it's it looks
like that's the other way the linemakers think. Also. But however,
I probably won't have a side on this scheme as
of right now. I won't. Um. I'm looking at the
side on a different game than out of this morning
that the line moved up. And you know I'm not
laying more than three points on anyone, So you'll know
(23:01):
I'm not betting any favorites this weekend, even though typically
divisional playoff, uh, this this particular weekend, favorites do very
well on this historically. Actually, I'm looking at I looked
at the numbers this morning up until about two thousand
seventeen that they did so a couple of a couple
of long games that went the other way here. But
(23:22):
and it's just, uh, it just goes to show you
the teams have the extra rest. You know, the Kansas
Cities and Philadelphias have some extra rest, so they that
benefits them sometimes compared to you know, a team coming
in really banged up Dallas is has got to be
banged up from that was a hard hitting game at
first half of that Tampa game. But again, San France
did play last week, they played a day earlier. Usually
(23:44):
it doesn't mean nothing, but twenty four hours may mean
something when you have twenty four hours more to rest
those injuries and heal those bruisers. I hear you crack,
trust me, I do. The thing is, I just think
this line stinks because all the reasons that you rattled off,
I would think this bread would be more than three
and a half. If you look at the Niners. They've
won eleven straight games. They went nine and two against
(24:07):
the spread in that stretch, and then everything else that
you mentioned there. The extra rest is a home game
Dallas is traveling, hard hitting game on Monday night for
the Cowboys UM against Tampa, and yet San France only
favored by three and a half. I just think that's low.
You look at all the other UH point spreads in
(24:27):
this weekend, Casey by eight and a half, Philly by
seven and a half, Buffalo by five and a half
or six, and then it's San Francisco by three and
a half. I mean, it just stands out to me,
that's all it was. It looks like it was freeing
a half at lots of the spots had had three
and a half. I noticed um originally, but then uh
(24:47):
almost almost instantly went back to UH to four, even
four and a half for up there. But uh, and
I'm looking at bet MGM on their side there back
to four, so most of them are four across the board.
And uh, I don't know, I think the game's kind
of I think the line is kind of right. I
do I think that. Uh, But listen, San fran was
(25:08):
the wise guy choice to win the Super Bowl last
week at plus four and a half the one. Uh.
You know, I know some sharp guys that were actually
betting uh San Fran to win the Super Bowl. So um,
it's it's it's still the same price Believe it or not.
It's still the same price at some sports books around
which act absolutely shocked me. Uh that that it was
(25:28):
the same exact price. So uh, we'll see what happens here.
And you know, it should be a fun week. This
is a week that I'm really looking forward to watching games.
And you it's funny you started out with Sunday Nights game.
That's probably the game I'll be looking forward to Buffalo Sunday.
In general, it's Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, San Fran. Boy, what
what a great weekend of of NFL football we have
(25:49):
this weekend and and uh, I've never been more excited
for NFL than this year. And it's probably because of
our shows. It's in my brain every week talking to
you guys. Absolutely, Well, let's go to that other's to
day game, Bengals at the Bills. You mentioned it crack
highly emotional game. There's no doubt with themar Hamlin who
suffered cardiac arrest. This is just over two weeks ago, right,
(26:11):
We're talking a little more than two and a half
weeks ago, and uh, thankfully he's all right. He's been
at the Bills facility numerous times. That is awesome news
as he recovers. So as we get to the football
side of it, think God tomor is okay. Bengals Bills
And you look at the Bengals offensive line, it's banged up.
Three starters could be out. Jonah Williams is week to
(26:33):
week with a knee injury. Alex Cappa he's trying to
get back in there. Of course, Lyell Collins he's done
for the season. So you've got a lot of wear
and tear on that Bengals offensive line. But guess what
crack There wasn't a work of art last season either,
and they were an eyelash away from winning it all.
So I think that you could see the Bills get
(26:53):
a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow, maybe some sacks,
but I think Burro is gonna have to throw the
ball short and quick often. I would look to take
advantage of that. If you're looking for some prop bets,
I think it's gonna be similar to Tom Brady, not
the same, but similar where Brady against the Cowboys had
to throw the ball a lot and a lot of short,
quick passes. So I would keep your eye on attempts
(27:16):
for Burrow and completions for Burrow because I think both
will be very high. That's a good good way to
look at this. Maybe you're probably right, Um, in this
particular game, I didn't expect to be six. Is some
six is popped up around town now here in Vegas,
Buffalo giving six. Listen, Buffalo is also vulnerable. They could
easily lost to Miami last week, just like Cincinnati probably
(27:37):
should have lost to Baltimore last week. So these teams
aren't who we thought they were earlier in the in
the season. Uh So, I I think that six, you know,
even though you have those guys that are banged up,
that's it's it's baked in the line, right That's the
reason why it's six and not four. So I don't
know right now, I'm looking at Cincinnati in this game
(27:57):
to see if it goes a little bit higher. I
kind of like the Bengals in this game with the
with those points. Um, I see Buffalo you know opened
up four and a half one up to six here
Lot Fountain. Not only square money, but sharp money is
going on Buffalo too. Uh. May or may not have
a bet on this game. I'll probably talk about more
of more on our Countdown the kickoff show on Sunday.
(28:18):
This should be a fun game though. These two teams
last week they got the scares of their life, both teams,
so they both made it through. Here we are and
only one can go through, so this should be fun.
Should be a lot of fun. Let's look to Saturday, Crack.
Let's start with the first game on that day. It's Jags,
Chiefs and Chiefs. It's it's so funny, man like. The
(28:39):
lines are constantly fluctuating. Um, look at eight and a
half chiefs right, eight and a half now two seconds ago.
But I've been something else but eight and a half chiefs. Uh.
The totals fifty three at bet MGM. Your first impressions
of this game here, Crack, what do you think the
total is pretty high? I mean, I don't know if
I'll be betting over that game. I I maybe even
(29:00):
look towards an under on that game. I haven't really
decided yet. But um, eight and a half and even
nine nine. One of the Sharper sports books that makes
the lines for everyone else is at nine solid nine. So, uh,
eight and a half. Let's use eight and a half
as a number here. Um, it's probably the right line. Uh.
Jacksonville is not gonna be able to come back from
(29:20):
a nothing deficit against the Kansas City so um again,
though I won't be laying that the eight and a
half points on Kansas City even though they're they're the
Sharper team. They have shown me that. Uh you know,
they literally have probably the number one team over the
last couple of years that has one games by one
(29:43):
score has been Kansas City. So they are vulnerable to
the spread long and probably the one of the worst
teams against the spread, uh you know, literally last season,
especially So I will not be on Kansas City. Of course,
as you guys always know, I'd ever take favorites, especially
that big um, but I'm not taking jackson I'm not
rushing out to take Jacksonville either. That that kid looked
(30:05):
really good last week. So he actually impressed me, Trevor Lawrence. Uh,
and not just walking in the waffle house. He impressed
me by uh coming back from a deficit like that
of four interceptions and to come back and win that game.
He showed me a lot that kid. Yeah, hey man,
start off with four picks and then rally with four
touchdown passes was pretty impressive. The question is which guy
(30:28):
shows up against the Chiefs. Is it both guys or
is it you know, the interception lawrence or the touchdown lawrence.
You mentioned the the tax that you have to pay
if you're betting on Kansas City. Kansas City only too
intent against the spread in conference games this season as
the worst mark in the NFL. So, I mean, there's
(30:48):
obviously a conference game right against an a f C
foe in the a f C playoffs. Um, but I
understand what you're saying, Crack. I'm leaning if it's one
way or the other, I'm leaning Jacksonville plus the points.
I'm not looking to rush out in bet Kansas City
with the mark that they've had this season. Uh. And
they also they played Jacksonville earlier this season and that
game got a little closer down the stretch where I
(31:12):
went an in game route and that was a backdoor
in game cover for Jacksonville. So maybe look at that
during the game. Let's get to uh, Yeah, let's get
to the Saturday nightcap Crack Giants Eagles, Eagles favored by
seven and a half. The question, obviously in everybody's mind
is how healthy is Jalen Hurts. What do you think
we'll see from him and the Eagles? Well, listen, if
(31:33):
I had to pick one of the eight teams that
are remaining here, I'd have to tell you that Giants
played the best out of all eight last week. Uh, Listen,
Jones looked really good. And I don't really ever say
that about Daniel Jones. He looked really good, bark, we
looked great. Um. Yeah, and they're pretty healthy team. You know,
they got the coach of that my in my opinion,
(31:54):
coach of the year. They ball Um, I don't know, listen.
I know that earlier in the season when accounted, I
know Philadelphia, you know it was a big Listen. They
had a good first three quarters of the season. Then
they proved to be a little vulnerable towards the end
of the season and and you didn't even know if
(32:15):
they were gonna win a division to the last game.
So uh, and of course that's because Hurts went down.
Mins you came in. I don't know how healthy he is,
I he I don't know. You know, last week we
were we were two weeks ago, we were betting under
on his rushing yards. It didn't even come close. Just
like just like I predicted on on our show, Under
hurts rushing yards, they weren't going to rush him out
(32:37):
there and make him get hurt. I think the same
thing here. I mean, he's gonna go for it, of course,
But I don't know, Um, you know, if he's a
hundred percent healthy in his situation that that he's gonna
come out and just give it as he's gonna give
it as all. But I don't know if they'll call
them risk your plays. You know, his strength is he
runs a lot, So I don't know if they're gonna
(32:59):
have something like that where he's in a running situation
over and over and over. So and you know, our
our co host Jeff Schwartz, uh seems like he just
thinks that they're gonna blow him away. So we'll see
him and I'll probably you know, going back at it.
He uh. He sent us a text that even when
I agree good information, Tennessee missed the forty seven yard
(33:21):
field goal as time expired. This is how this is
the Giant season. How they won. They beat Caroline on
a fifty six yard field goal, beat Green Bay by five,
beat Baltimore by four after a muf snap stop Kirk
at the one yard of one yard line. Versus Jacksonville,
Uh tide, Washington beat Washington on a bad call. Uh literally,
you know, minus three wins, versus picking top four teams Chicago, Texas,
(33:44):
and I understand all those things. This is the playoffs, though,
and this is the NFL where anything cannon will happen.
So I just think that the playoffs plays a little
tighter in this situation. I am not looking to everyone.
I know. I was on another show this morning. Every
want to know it is playing Kansas City and Philadelphia
and a teaser money line parlay. Um. I I don't
(34:05):
know about my situation. Even the sharp guys are playing it.
So it's kind of surprising to me. Listen, there's sharp
guys last week that played the San fran Buffalo Cincinnati
parlay and got the money. But I'll tell you what,
they shouldn't have one of those teams on Sunday should
have lost. So they But but you know, these guys
run good sometimes, and I understand all these information, all
(34:27):
these things that are out there, I think they're in
the line. I think this is all baked in the line.
You know, you have eight at one sports book that
controls the market. You have seven and a half of
everywhere else. Should be a great game, look forward to it.
I think it's gonna be. It might be better than
than than this line dictates. You know, I'm looking at
Daniel Jones here, crack. Let me run this by you.
Curious if you're buying this or not. But I look
(34:49):
at Daniel Jones Giants quarterback. His passing number is at
to sixteen and a half. And I went back and
looked at Danny Dimes over here, and he's carved up
of Vikings whose past defense is just decrepit. And he
hasn't done a whole lot of carving up other NFL
teams and defenses. If you look at him against the
Eagles in the regular season through for a hundred sixty
(35:12):
nine yards, I'm leaning towards the under. I think the
under is a solid play. I think he get it
at the right time. The Eagles have the best pass
defense in football. They give up on average goodness. It's
only what a hundred seven. They give up just under
one eighty per game against the past, so I'm leaning
(35:32):
toward the under Daniel Jones passing number. But how about
this also, crack, look at his rushing total forty three
and a half. We're all looking at Jalen Hurts and
rightfully so how much is he gonna rush? But Daniel Jones,
he's Jalen Hurts for the season seven hundred sixty rushing
yards Daniel Jones seven oh eight and that's on forty
(35:53):
five fewer attempts. So Daniel Jones runs a lot. Man,
I could see him getting to forty four rushing yards
no problem. Huh, Well, I hate to say it. I
only have one total for the week I'm looking at.
I was looking at the first half over in this
game and a half, but uh, you know, this happens
a lot when teams score a lout in the first half,
they don't that the game doesn't go over in the
(36:14):
full game. So we'll see what happens here by game time.
You brought up some good points there, and uh, you know,
we'll see what happens. The game opened up forty seven.
I know one sharp group that went over the forty seven.
It's up to forty eight now pretty solid, just a
solid vanilla forty eight. It's not even a forty seven
and a half or forty eight and a half anywhere.
Don't worry though, towards game time, when the volume comes
(36:35):
comes in, these games will be moving around for sure,
because the public loves to bet every single game. It's
on TV. They're drinking, were their buddies in a bar
or sports book. Everyone's gotta have action. I understand how
that that. Man, it's overused. I use it on every show.
I understand what the human condition is. We need action.
I get it. I get it. It's very sociable, it's
(36:55):
very fun, it's glamorous. But just just you know, bet
with your head, not over real fast crack. Could This
would be a good way to end the podcast. Not
every square pick is wrong, and you know that we
all know. But what just based on what you said
right there, these games are on TV, you're with your buddies,
you want to have some action. What do you think
(37:15):
is you look at all these games might be the
biggest square pick heading in man. I'll tell you, I
think it will be money lines, spending betting, money lines,
on on Kansas City and Philadelphia. They that this is
what they do. They they'll bet money line Kansas City,
money line Philadelphia and throw it in with like a Buffalo,
like like a three team money line parlay. And um,
(37:37):
those money line parlays are how the sports books make
their living. It's happened all throughout this year. Sports books
made a fortune off money line parlay's I look for
I look forward to Jason at bet MGM. He'll tell
you all you need to know, because again last week
Miami and Buffalo was one of the biggest game. It
was the biggest game, he said, the biggest game of
(37:58):
the year. More money was bet on Buffalo minus thirteen
and a half and even the money line. More money
was bet there than he's ever had since they opened
the app. He told us on the show. Immediately, I
I already leaned to the dog there immediately hearing that
I had to, I had to even put more on
the dog than in my mind mentally, and I and uh, unfortunately,
we had me and Jeff a rare time that we
(38:18):
were against each other. And um, I guess you know,
I understand you guys definitely thought that Buffalo was gonna
blow him out. I understand it looks so much easier
on paper, but it's amazing things just happen on these
games where they get them right the lines. That's where
I wonder. Gosh, I'm sorry, we're supposed to end this,
but we're just talking bald Man. We can talk to
the next nine hours. But that's what makes me wonder
(38:41):
about Dallas San Francisco. It looks better on paper for
San Francisco. I mean, that's the way it'll play out
during the game. But I mean I just thought Buffalo
was gonna have their way with my poor Dolphins, and
that didn't happen. So you're right. Sometimes the games look
better on paper than they do on the TV screen
or in person if you're at the game. And that
could be could be the Cowboys San Francisco this weekend.
(39:04):
We'll have to see absolutely. And don't don't ever think
I know that's your team. You even wore the color
jersey on our show, the color shirt. Let me tell
you something, Brian, they could have won that game. They
could have. They blew it, they could have won that game.
Terrible clock management, they could have won that game. So yeah,
they very well could have. Hey, be sure to check
out the new looking features in the bed mgm app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love,
(39:26):
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost or the
cash out feature. New users can use the code countdown
for a special offer. All right, make sure you check
us out on Sunday. It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM. There'll be Bill kracken Burger, sports
handicapper from crack winds dot com. Great information, great picks,
(39:47):
sixteen of nineteen winning weeks in terms of being charted
by a listener over there. We'll take it as accurate,
right crack That sounds good to me. I know I
ran really good on the show, of course absolutely. Jeff
schwar It's eight year NFL veteran, will be with us.
I'm Brian No So it'll be ten am until one
pm Eastern Time on Sunday. Check us out on Fox
(40:09):
Sports Radio
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
the largest tailgate party in the nation. Let's go Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Fat MGM, the
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(00:23):
the in game. We're here to break it all top,
let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bett mg app. Nah, we're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no No Welcome in.
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet mgm d podcast. Over here.
(00:46):
We'll have Jared Smith, betting analyst. In just a minute.
We'll also have Bill Krackenburger from crack Winds dot com
sports handicapper. I'm Brian. Note. New users download the bet
MGM app today in use code countdown for a special
for that code countdown in the bet MGM app. Oh,
we've got the divisional playoffs. Let it wash over you.
(01:06):
Let's welcome in Jared Smith here, betting analyst. Jared. I
just hope that the divisional round is as epic as
most of the wild Card round. Sorry, super wild Card
weekend was because we had some freaking classics. I can't
believe my Dolphins almost pulled off a stunner right there.
That was amazing. Yeah, that was a tighter game than
(01:27):
I think a lot of people expected. But if you
look at what Josh Allen has done this year, very volatile.
I mean, this is a team that lost to the Jets.
Remember last year in that game in Week eighteen lost
the Jag or not week A team, but at some
point last year they lost to the Jags. I forget
which week, um, but there's there's obviously some upside, but
there's a lot of outside I think with Josh Allen's
(01:49):
game right now. So should be interesting this week against
Joe Coop and the Bengals and what should be a
very emotional rematch. Yeah, very emotional, no doubt about that.
Let's start it off with the last game of the menu.
It's a speed right oight ahead the Sunday night. You've
got your eye on the Niners. We might get some
healthy disagreement over here because I'm on the Cowboys on
(02:10):
this one, but I want to hear your rationale. Why
do you like the Niners in spite of their Mr
Irrelevant quarterback who's on a magic carpet ride right now. Yeah,
I don't think there's that. I mean, you know, everything
I've heard this week, and it almost in in satire
in jest, people saying, oh, well, brock parties first road start,
now it's his first start against a good team. Now
(02:30):
it's his first playoffs start. Eventually, I think we just
have to come to the conclusion that he's in the
perfect situation. And I think the thing that really stood
out to me when I dug into the numbers is
how much better and more efficient he's playing when under duress.
For example, when under pressure this season, his turn Now,
I know it's a it's a small sample, but we're
(02:51):
getting to the point where he's played a bunch of
games in some tougher spots, so I think we can
take something from it. When under pressure this year, his
turnover worthy play rate actually drops by half a percent,
and his big time throw rate actually increases by over
two percent. Same thing. When facing the Blitz, turnover worthy
play rate drops, big time throw rate, adjusted accuracy is
(03:12):
basically the same. So unlike most quarterbacks period rookie, non rookie,
Hall of Fame, non Hall of Fame, he is showing
an ability to stay cool under pressure, which is something
he is going to have to do a lot of
this week against a very good pass rush that got
a lot of pressure on Tom Brady on Monday night. Now,
the one thing I will say on the other side
(03:33):
for the Cowboys is I don't know if Doc is
going to play as efficiently as he did. If he does,
then the Cowboys are absolutely live in this game. But
if you were going to take the last six weeks
of quarterback play in the NFL and you were gonna
take Brock Purdy and compare him to Dak Prescott, Purdy's
numbers against the Blitz and his ability to keep control
of the football not turn it over light years ahead
(03:54):
of where Doc is. So that's gonna be the key.
Just like we saw over the weekend, turnovers are are
are the key. If if the Niners can continue to
play clean football, and if that kind of falls back
into some of those habits we saw from earlier, you know,
a few weeks ago, especially in that game against Washington,
then I really think San Francisco could roll in this game. Wow,
rolling it Okay, I look at obviously, turnovers a big deal,
(04:18):
no doubt about that. I agree with you there. As
far as the running games, I think that Dallas gotta
play pretty good rush defense because the Niners they've been
running over everybody. They've averaged over a hundred fifty yards
on the ground since Purdy has taken over. If Dallas
is able to slow down, I'm not saying stop, but
slow down San Francisco's running game and put more on
(04:42):
Purdy's plate. Maybe you force him into a mistake, maybe
force him into a key turnover, because he should have
had a couple of interceptions in the first half against
the Seahawks last week, and the Seahawks don't play outstanding defense.
So I think that's a big, big deal is how
well does Dallas rush defense play, because there's obviously a
(05:02):
ripple effect if they're able to play well. Yeah, and
I think the you know your your our eyes tell
us that maybe Purty should have committed a few more turnovers,
but again, the numbers don't indicate that he had zero
turnover worth he plays against Seattle. I know the first
throw of the game, the wet ball, and it was
kind of a quack duck and it kind of fell
harmlessly into the turf, and then you get to give
the kid one drive and his first playoff drive, he
(05:24):
was a little jittery, but he was nails from that
point on. So the numbers say that that Brock has
been playing much cleaner than than Dak has the last
few weeks. Um. The one thing I will say, the
Niners defense has been a little susceptible to the deep pass.
Gino Smith had a pretty solid success right on dropbacks
last week. DK Metcalf had a good game, so I
could absolutely see Ceedee Lamb and that Dallas offense having
(05:46):
some explosion in the passing game, but I do not
see them running the football effectively at all. Uh. The
Niners are first and inefficiency this year thirty success rate
allowed on running plays. I think it's going to be
that like it is all going to be on Dak's shoulders,
where I think there's can be a little more balanced
with the Niners offense. And also, let's be honest, the
Niners offense is much more versatile than the Cowboys are.
(06:07):
Tony Pollard is kind of the exception to that rule,
but for the most part, this is a Cowboys offense
that wants to run it down your throat and then
have dak go deep, So the Niners can beat you
in so many different ways. I don't know where Deebo
Samuel and Christian McCaffrey are gonna line up on any
given play. And then Kittle is obviously an X factor,
and I think both tight ends could be a factor
in this game as well. The injuries are certainly noteworthy
(06:28):
too for Dallas. Um did Jason Peter's injury at left
tackle could be big. And then also their their best
tackling safety, j Ron Curse got nicked up in that
game against the Bucks too. And and you know it's
a short week. They played Monday. They have to play
now Saturday or Sunday, so they get one fewer day
of of prep. And the Niners played Saturday, so they
get two extra days off. In addition to the travel factor,
(06:48):
you know they get Dallas going from Campa Bay back
to Dallas, then California. It's their fourth straight road games.
So I can come up with a lot of small,
little intangibles that I think point in the niners favor,
But the crux of this handicap is absolutely going to
be the quarterback play and and which quarterback makes the
first mistake. Brock could certainly make that first mistake, but
the numbers say DA's been making more of them. So
I'll go with my numbers here and and and say, Daca,
(07:10):
you know Brock plays a cleaner game than Dack does. Well,
I'll say two things, uh, maybe three things, maybe nine things.
I don't know, but like I don't know the suits
or like the like the lab coat suits, you know,
not like the uh you know, like management suits with
the actual ones. But whoever came up with the turnover worthy?
(07:31):
If Brock Purty throws a ball and it hits a
linebacker's hands, that's turnover worthy to me. But I don't know,
we're just kind of like, uh, disagree on that one.
I think all of the things that you've mentioned makes sense,
But the lines three and a half, like you just
lifted off a good ten things right there as to
why you're on the niners, which is fine, it's all
(07:53):
sound reasoning. And yet the line is three and a half.
It's the shortest line of the week that stinks to me.
That stands out to me quite a bit. And there's
no doubt everything boils down to I think for the Cowboys,
how well does Dak play and can he protect the football,
because even though he was clean last week against Tampa,
(08:14):
it had been seven straight games where he had thrown
an interception, so that could be a big, big deal.
We saw a turnover swing the game last week. Seattle
was in that thing and Gino Smith fumbled. It was
a six point game and that was definitely the turning
point in that one. So all eyes will be on
that on Sunday night on Fox. By the way, definitely
check that out. Okay, so we've got also let's get
(08:36):
to the props here, Jared, because you're on Mr Kelsey
over here, and you can't bet on Jason Kelsey with
the prop bets the the Eagles center, So we'll go
Travis Kelsey and the Chiefs over here. What do you
see from Travis? Yeah? Again, this is the biggest total
of the week, highest total of the week, so I
would expect points, right. I think this is a decent
prop game because we do expect there to be the
(08:59):
most down scored in any game, at least according to
the odds makers should be in this one. So I
think that that's where I'll be heavy prop based to
the over and I think Kelsey is the guy I'll target,
and it's because the Jaguars really struggled at the fen
tight ends. I mean, you look at the full season numbers,
their thirty second and DVO against tight ends. You can't
get worse than that. And then you look at the
(09:20):
matchup last week against Gerald Everett six for one on
nine in a touchdown. Travis Kelsey also is the guy
in the postseason when Patrick Mahomes feels pressure and when
he's in big games, Travis Kelsey is the security blanket
at least seven targets at least ninety five yards in
six straight postseason games. He has scored a touchdown in
five of his last six postseason games. The only one
(09:42):
he didn't was the Super Bowl against the Bucks, when
nobody on the Chiefs scored a touchdown in that game.
So I certainly can't fault Travis. But there is a
lot of positive um momentum, I would say, and and
certainly the statistics back up Travis Kelsey having a big
game against the Jags. There is one prop bet I've
got my eye on right now. I'm looking at old
Daniel Jones, Danny Dimes, New York Giants quarterback obviously, and
(10:06):
I'm looking at his passing total here, it's at two
sixteen and a half and he's just off the big
game against Minnesota. Minnesota's past defense is brutal. He threw
for over three hundred yards in the playoff game last
week and also the regular season matchup. And I think
that you're getting Daniel Jones under at the right time
(10:27):
because you look at the Eagles, They've got the best
pass defense in football. They gave up the fewest yards
per game, they gave up the fewest yards you know,
total throughout the season against the past. And I think
in this one, Jared after a bye week, I think
this is gonna be an uphill battle for the g men.
And hey, look, maybe it goes painfully wrong and the
(10:49):
Eagles are up comfortably late and Daniel Jones is doing
his Tom Brady impression from last week and racking up
some garbage time passing yards. Could go wrong, But you
look at Daniel Joe, just look at his numbers per
game passing wise, and you're gonna see a lot of oh.
Because you see this line is that he just got
to get to to seventeen. Well against Indy won seventy
(11:12):
seven against Washington won sixty against Philadelphia in the regular
season matchup one six nine. I like the under for
Danny Dimes here, Yeah and again I'll echo this. I
just looked it up. He's only gone over this number
and four out of seventeen games, two of them were
against the Vikings. So and obviously under in both games
(11:33):
against the Eagles this year one sixty nine, and then
didn't play in the second one, so that that one's
a moot point. Um. I would even take it a
step further and bet all of his receivers under as well.
I saw all three of them Hodgens, Um, Slaton and
James all at right in the mid forties. I think
there's a decent chance that two out of the three,
(11:54):
if not all three, stay under. So I think this
is this is the week to bet under on the
Giants props because you're coming off You're right, you totally
nailed that. You're coming off of a week where they
could do no wrong. The numbers for the Giants offense
against the Vikings. They made Isaiah Hodgens look like Randy Moss.
Isaiah Hodgens had half of his He has about like
(12:14):
three and ninety yards on the year, receiving. He had
half of that in two games against Minnesota the entire season,
two games against the same team. So I just think
it's gonna be a massive, massive step up in class
for that Giants offense this week. And I would not
be surprised if there's a lot of public money on
the Giants because of what they saw last week. And
that's usually a good bet to hop off the train.
(12:37):
How about this, Because we're always looking for a work
around in life. You know, if you're driving to work
and the road is blocked, you don't just say, well,
I guess I don't have work today. You gotta find
another path, you know, And you found a path over
at bet MGM Jared. You're looking for a teaser, right,
You're looking at Bengals Eagles, and uh, you know you
(12:59):
gotta go the on line route, which is the same
as a teaser. But if you just explain to everybody
what the workaround is and how you're on the Bengals
and Eagles, well, teasers are a very useful tool um
in the playoffs because the lines are as sharp as
they've been all seasoned. So if the NFL is the
most efficient market and we are at the point in
(13:21):
the season where there's only a handful of games left
and the lines are the most efficient they've all been
all years, So we've got the most efficient market and
the lines are as sharp as they've been all season. Well,
then theoretically, if you manipulate those numbers in your favor,
you should have a lot of success. And historically speaking,
if you pick your teaser spots right, you have had
a lot of success in the NFL postseason. Unfortunately, bet
(13:42):
MGM doesn't offer the traditional teaser route, but this is
a cheaper route actually, and frankly, this is a better
route because a lot of sports books today they know
that you have an edge on teaser, so what they
do is take jack up the price, which is that's
what I would do too if I knew I was
getting beat by something. But this route, actually, all you're
doing is you're betting the alternate line and you're par
(14:03):
laying them together. So if you go to the you know,
each subsection of these two games we're gonna give you,
you'll be able to find the alternate lines you par
lay them together, and actually the price is cheaper than
your standard teaser price at a lot of shops which
is typically around minus one thirty minus one forty. These days,
I don't like to spend more than minus one twenty
(14:23):
when I bet a teaser. This one is minus one sixteen.
It is a very fair price, and it's the Eagles
moving through both key numbers from seven and a half
down to one and a half, and the Bengals moving
up through one key number and some secondary keys from
five and a half to eleven and a half. So
it's a pretty simple parlay. We're taking alternate lines, we're
manipulating the numbers in our favor, we're par laying them together,
(14:45):
and we're getting a price that's pretty fair at minus
one sixteen. So that's my teaser of the week. I
think the Eagles win. I think obviously what we just
said about the Giants having having a struggle offensively. And
in this other game Bengals Bills, I see this game
being closed, and I'll close with this number. When Jamaar
Chase has been in the lineup for Cincinnati, they've gone
twenty one straight games without losing by more than a
field goal. So I just see that Bengals Bills game
(15:06):
being nip and talk back and forth, and I see
it being close, and I'll gladly take eleven and a
half points in my back pocket. With Joe Burrow, I
like it. Yeah, Bengals offensive line is banged up quite
a bit. He might have three starters out. But the
first thing I think of was last season, Jared like,
if you look at their offensive line, they give up
nineteen sacks in the postseason. Now they're playing four games,
(15:28):
but do the math. That's still freaking horrendous. That's almost
five sacks per game that they gave up, and they
were a whisker away from winning the whole thing. So
I initially think, oh gosh, Oe lines banged up, and
then I'm like, yeah, well they were banged up in
awful last year and they they still one game, so
I would agree with you. I think it's gonna be
a close game. It's not like Miami was at full
strength last week and that was a field goal game
(15:50):
against Buffalo. And again, the one thing about Joe Burrow
is he's made the adjustment. I mean, if if we're
talking about how much he's getting sacked and how that's
a detriment to what the Bengals aspirations are, I'm sure
he hears about it too, and I'm sure he knows
about it. Joe Burrow has the second shortest time to
throw rate this year behind Tom Brady, and there's not
a big gap between those two guys. I mean, he's
(16:12):
getting it and he's delivering it at a very quick rate,
and it's negating some of that pass rush. So yes,
I think the move that we saw in the Bengals
Bills game this week, line opened around four and a
half got bumped up to five five and a half.
Total opened around the forty nine and a half fifty
range got knocked down to forty eight and a half.
(16:32):
And I think that's because of the offensive line issues
for for Cincinnati. But if Joe makes the proper adjustment
and continues to get the ball out at a very
judicious pace, then I don't think it's gonna matter as much.
And maybe that line moves a bit overstated. Yeah, And
less thing I'll say Jared is I don't expect Burrow
to be like Tom Brady was last week. But in
(16:55):
terms of what Brady throw it's sixty six times. That
was crazy. But I think that Burrow you saw it
in their game against the Ravens. Chris collins Worth kept
on harping on this. He was like, he's got to
throw the ball real fast because he doesn't have time
right like and against Buffalo, I could see that being
the case. I would watch for his attempts to be
way up there. I would look for his completions in
(17:17):
the game to be way up there. You might be
able to take advantage of that in the prop bet market.
Because I also looked at it from this standpoint because
Burrow he didn't have gaudy numbers last week against the Ravens.
He was twenty three of thirty two for two oh
nine and a touchdown, but the Bengals only had fifty
offensive plays. If you look at the Ravens, they ran
(17:38):
the ball really effectively and they won the time of
possession battle. So if it's a different deal against Buffalo.
Buffalo they don't run the ball like the Ravens do,
so if they score quick or they on the Bengals
get the ball right back, I think that Burrow is
gonna have to throw the ball short a lot, and
I think that the attempts and the completions could act
(18:00):
work out for you if you look at that. I agree,
and on the defensive side lu and a romo. We've
talked about him a lot this year. I think he's
he's maked. He makes the best adjustments in game that
I think I've ever seen any defensive coordinator make. And
the one detriment though he has a bit of a
banged up secondary, and if Eli Apple gets gets targeted
like he was last week five times gave up the
(18:22):
touchdown to the Marcus Robinson, him on Stefon Biggs really
scares me. And if Josh Allen can kind of manipulate
that matchup and massage Eli Apple into some into some difficult,
difficult spots, I can see this Bill's offense being pretty explosive.
That's why I was surprised when the total dropped, and
I understand it's because of the Bengals offense and what
(18:43):
Joe Burrow might have to deal with, you know, a
lot of short, quick passes. But man, I I see
Josh Allen having a lot of success to at times
and also a lot of volatility with all the turnovers.
So this total which went down, I could see it
going back up this weekend. So if you do like
the over and you think there's gonna be points, I
think and a half, which is what I'm seeing now
(19:03):
as we're recording is is is the absolute bare bottom
floor and this total will only increase as we head
into the weekend. Hey, good stuff, man, He's Jared Smith,
betting analysts. Join Jared, myself, Brian though and Rich Ornberger
Penn State All American. On Saturday, Let's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM, will be on Fox Sports Radio
(19:24):
nine am until noon Eastern time. Get you all set
for the divisional round of the playoffs. Earn a fifty
dollar bonus by signing into bet MGM and clicking on
refer a friend to invite a friend and it just
a few simple steps. Both you and your friend will
receive a fifty dollar bonus. Bet MGM, the king of
sports books. All right, want to welcome in here Bill
Crack and Burger sports handicapper from crack wins dot com.
(19:48):
He's joining us here on the podcast. I'm Brian No, okay, Crack.
We're all set for the divisional round of the playoffs. Man,
and uh, you're looking to you're looking to steamroll through
another week. Your picks on the show have been tremendous.
You did admit that it wasn't a great week in
Super wild Card weekend, but I'm sure you're gonna be
right back on the right side of things here very shortly.
(20:11):
I did. Uh. You know, it's funny I lost last week,
but yet on the show, I gave out some really
good stuff, uh and and held my own on the show.
But so that happens. You know, I'm giving out, trying
trying to give about the best stuff on the show,
and um, sometimes that happened. I've bet a lot of
props last weekend. I lost on a lot of props.
You know, when you have high scoring games. I bet
(20:31):
a lot of unders last week. And let me just
tell you, uh, lots of volume towards game time causes
a lot it cost. Is really a lot of the
sites you can get some great value towards kickoff on
playoff games. So a lot of my props are gonna
be more towards game time and more towards the under.
I'm sure so under on players. So I don't know
(20:53):
if we're gonna have the high scoring fireworks that we
had last weekend. Literally, anyone that bet over on any
game one or pushed even the Dallas game you should
have pushed show. Uh, it was that that type of
week in the NFL. So it's a fireworks making up
for a lot of the unders earlier in the year.
It's been an under year drawing the regular excuson. That's
pretty crazy. Yeah, I was just gonna say, sometimes I've
(21:15):
saved my worst for the show apparent like never been
a couple of weeks when we're in Cincinnati. I had
a couple of picks on air. I did great betting
wise that week, but my picks on the air, I
had Indie minus whatever. It was like two and a
half because I didn't think the Texans were stupid enough
to screw up the first overall pick, and then what happened,
crack It's like a mini Hail Mary towards the end
(21:36):
of the game that they scored on then he went
for the two point conversion and that pick just blew
up right there. But it was a good betting weekend,
so it's just weird. It's weird how that works. I
was on Tom Brady his over attempts last week and
that was an easy cash. I was on the over
of Giants Minnesota over first first quarter, so I did
(21:56):
pretty well. On the show last week, Crack. So that's good.
Let's keep them on and them going. We're looking at
the divisional round over here. Let's start with the nightcap
on Sunday night. This is the one I'm most interested in.
Cowboys forty Niners. Just your thoughts on the game as
you begin to look at it, Crack, what do you see?
I think Tampa made Dallas look better than they are
(22:19):
in that game, and it's reflective in the line, the
line being four. Um. I mean, I'm not betting san Fran,
but I look at the offensive power of San Fran
from a you and Deebot and McCaffrey, and I mean this,
this is this is really even though they got the
rookie in there at quarterback, they are just a more
(22:40):
talented bunch when they're healthy. Uh. And it's it looks
like that's the other way the linemakers think. Also. But however,
I probably won't have a side on this scheme as
of right now. I won't. Um. I'm looking at the
side on a different game than out of this morning
that the line moved up. And you know I'm not
laying more than three points on anyone, So you'll know
(23:01):
I'm not betting any favorites this weekend, even though typically
divisional playoff, uh, this this particular weekend, favorites do very
well on this historically. Actually, I'm looking at I looked
at the numbers this morning up until about two thousand
seventeen that they did so a couple of a couple
of long games that went the other way here. But
(23:22):
and it's just, uh, it just goes to show you
the teams have the extra rest. You know, the Kansas
Cities and Philadelphias have some extra rest, so they that
benefits them sometimes compared to you know, a team coming
in really banged up Dallas is has got to be
banged up from that was a hard hitting game at
first half of that Tampa game. But again, San France
did play last week, they played a day earlier. Usually
(23:44):
it doesn't mean nothing, but twenty four hours may mean
something when you have twenty four hours more to rest
those injuries and heal those bruisers. I hear you crack,
trust me, I do. The thing is, I just think
this line stinks because all the reasons that you rattled off,
I would think this bread would be more than three
and a half. If you look at the Niners. They've
won eleven straight games. They went nine and two against
(24:07):
the spread in that stretch, and then everything else that
you mentioned there. The extra rest is a home game
Dallas is traveling, hard hitting game on Monday night for
the Cowboys UM against Tampa, and yet San France only
favored by three and a half. I just think that's low.
You look at all the other UH point spreads in
(24:27):
this weekend, Casey by eight and a half, Philly by
seven and a half, Buffalo by five and a half
or six, and then it's San Francisco by three and
a half. I mean, it just stands out to me,
that's all it was. It looks like it was freeing
a half at lots of the spots had had three
and a half. I noticed um originally, but then uh
(24:47):
almost almost instantly went back to UH to four, even
four and a half for up there. But uh, and
I'm looking at bet MGM on their side there back
to four, so most of them are four across the board.
And uh, I don't know, I think the game's kind
of I think the line is kind of right. I
do I think that. Uh, But listen, San fran was
(25:08):
the wise guy choice to win the Super Bowl last
week at plus four and a half the one. Uh.
You know, I know some sharp guys that were actually
betting uh San Fran to win the Super Bowl. So um,
it's it's it's still the same price Believe it or not.
It's still the same price at some sports books around
which act absolutely shocked me. Uh that that it was
(25:28):
the same exact price. So uh, we'll see what happens here.
And you know, it should be a fun week. This
is a week that I'm really looking forward to watching games.
And you it's funny you started out with Sunday Nights game.
That's probably the game I'll be looking forward to Buffalo Sunday.
In general, it's Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, San Fran. Boy, what
what a great weekend of of NFL football we have
(25:49):
this weekend and and uh, I've never been more excited
for NFL than this year. And it's probably because of
our shows. It's in my brain every week talking to
you guys. Absolutely, Well, let's go to that other's to
day game, Bengals at the Bills. You mentioned it crack
highly emotional game. There's no doubt with themar Hamlin who
suffered cardiac arrest. This is just over two weeks ago, right,
(26:11):
We're talking a little more than two and a half
weeks ago, and uh, thankfully he's all right. He's been
at the Bills facility numerous times. That is awesome news
as he recovers. So as we get to the football
side of it, think God tomor is okay. Bengals Bills
And you look at the Bengals offensive line, it's banged up.
Three starters could be out. Jonah Williams is week to
(26:33):
week with a knee injury. Alex Cappa he's trying to
get back in there. Of course, Lyell Collins he's done
for the season. So you've got a lot of wear
and tear on that Bengals offensive line. But guess what
crack There wasn't a work of art last season either,
and they were an eyelash away from winning it all.
So I think that you could see the Bills get
(26:53):
a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow, maybe some sacks,
but I think Burro is gonna have to throw the
ball short and quick often. I would look to take
advantage of that. If you're looking for some prop bets,
I think it's gonna be similar to Tom Brady, not
the same, but similar where Brady against the Cowboys had
to throw the ball a lot and a lot of short,
quick passes. So I would keep your eye on attempts
(27:16):
for Burrow and completions for Burrow because I think both
will be very high. That's a good good way to
look at this. Maybe you're probably right, Um, in this
particular game, I didn't expect to be six. Is some
six is popped up around town now here in Vegas,
Buffalo giving six. Listen, Buffalo is also vulnerable. They could
easily lost to Miami last week, just like Cincinnati probably
(27:37):
should have lost to Baltimore last week. So these teams
aren't who we thought they were earlier in the in
the season. Uh So, I I think that six, you know,
even though you have those guys that are banged up,
that's it's it's baked in the line, right That's the
reason why it's six and not four. So I don't
know right now, I'm looking at Cincinnati in this game
(27:57):
to see if it goes a little bit higher. I
kind of like the Bengals in this game with the
with those points. Um, I see Buffalo you know opened
up four and a half one up to six here
Lot Fountain. Not only square money, but sharp money is
going on Buffalo too. Uh. May or may not have
a bet on this game. I'll probably talk about more
of more on our Countdown the kickoff show on Sunday.
(28:18):
This should be a fun game though. These two teams
last week they got the scares of their life, both teams,
so they both made it through. Here we are and
only one can go through, so this should be fun.
Should be a lot of fun. Let's look to Saturday, Crack.
Let's start with the first game on that day. It's Jags,
Chiefs and Chiefs. It's it's so funny, man like. The
(28:39):
lines are constantly fluctuating. Um, look at eight and a
half chiefs right, eight and a half now two seconds ago.
But I've been something else but eight and a half chiefs. Uh.
The totals fifty three at bet MGM. Your first impressions
of this game here, Crack, what do you think the
total is pretty high? I mean, I don't know if
I'll be betting over that game. I I maybe even
(29:00):
look towards an under on that game. I haven't really
decided yet. But um, eight and a half and even
nine nine. One of the Sharper sports books that makes
the lines for everyone else is at nine solid nine. So, uh,
eight and a half. Let's use eight and a half
as a number here. Um, it's probably the right line. Uh.
Jacksonville is not gonna be able to come back from
(29:20):
a nothing deficit against the Kansas City so um again,
though I won't be laying that the eight and a
half points on Kansas City even though they're they're the
Sharper team. They have shown me that. Uh you know,
they literally have probably the number one team over the
last couple of years that has one games by one
(29:43):
score has been Kansas City. So they are vulnerable to
the spread long and probably the one of the worst
teams against the spread, uh you know, literally last season,
especially So I will not be on Kansas City. Of course,
as you guys always know, I'd ever take favorites, especially
that big um, but I'm not taking jackson I'm not
rushing out to take Jacksonville either. That that kid looked
(30:05):
really good last week. So he actually impressed me, Trevor Lawrence. Uh,
and not just walking in the waffle house. He impressed
me by uh coming back from a deficit like that
of four interceptions and to come back and win that game.
He showed me a lot that kid. Yeah, hey man,
start off with four picks and then rally with four
touchdown passes was pretty impressive. The question is which guy
(30:28):
shows up against the Chiefs. Is it both guys or
is it you know, the interception lawrence or the touchdown lawrence.
You mentioned the the tax that you have to pay
if you're betting on Kansas City. Kansas City only too
intent against the spread in conference games this season as
the worst mark in the NFL. So, I mean, there's
(30:48):
obviously a conference game right against an a f C
foe in the a f C playoffs. Um, but I
understand what you're saying, Crack. I'm leaning if it's one
way or the other, I'm leaning Jacksonville plus the points.
I'm not looking to rush out in bet Kansas City
with the mark that they've had this season. Uh. And
they also they played Jacksonville earlier this season and that
game got a little closer down the stretch where I
(31:12):
went an in game route and that was a backdoor
in game cover for Jacksonville. So maybe look at that
during the game. Let's get to uh, Yeah, let's get
to the Saturday nightcap Crack Giants Eagles, Eagles favored by
seven and a half. The question, obviously in everybody's mind
is how healthy is Jalen Hurts. What do you think
we'll see from him and the Eagles? Well, listen, if
(31:33):
I had to pick one of the eight teams that
are remaining here, I'd have to tell you that Giants
played the best out of all eight last week. Uh, Listen,
Jones looked really good. And I don't really ever say
that about Daniel Jones. He looked really good, bark, we
looked great. Um. Yeah, and they're pretty healthy team. You know,
they got the coach of that my in my opinion,
(31:54):
coach of the year. They ball Um, I don't know, listen.
I know that earlier in the season when accounted, I
know Philadelphia, you know it was a big Listen. They
had a good first three quarters of the season. Then
they proved to be a little vulnerable towards the end
of the season and and you didn't even know if
(32:15):
they were gonna win a division to the last game.
So uh, and of course that's because Hurts went down.
Mins you came in. I don't know how healthy he is,
I he I don't know. You know, last week we
were we were two weeks ago, we were betting under
on his rushing yards. It didn't even come close. Just
like just like I predicted on on our show, Under
hurts rushing yards, they weren't going to rush him out
(32:37):
there and make him get hurt. I think the same
thing here. I mean, he's gonna go for it, of course,
But I don't know, Um, you know, if he's a
hundred percent healthy in his situation that that he's gonna
come out and just give it as he's gonna give
it as all. But I don't know if they'll call
them risk your plays. You know, his strength is he
runs a lot, So I don't know if they're gonna
(32:59):
have something like that where he's in a running situation
over and over and over. So and you know, our
our co host Jeff Schwartz, uh seems like he just
thinks that they're gonna blow him away. So we'll see
him and I'll probably you know, going back at it.
He uh. He sent us a text that even when
I agree good information, Tennessee missed the forty seven yard
(33:21):
field goal as time expired. This is how this is
the Giant season. How they won. They beat Caroline on
a fifty six yard field goal, beat Green Bay by five,
beat Baltimore by four after a muf snap stop Kirk
at the one yard of one yard line. Versus Jacksonville,
Uh tide, Washington beat Washington on a bad call. Uh literally,
you know, minus three wins, versus picking top four teams Chicago, Texas,
(33:44):
and I understand all those things. This is the playoffs, though,
and this is the NFL where anything cannon will happen.
So I just think that the playoffs plays a little
tighter in this situation. I am not looking to everyone.
I know. I was on another show this morning. Every
want to know it is playing Kansas City and Philadelphia
and a teaser money line parlay. Um. I I don't
(34:05):
know about my situation. Even the sharp guys are playing it.
So it's kind of surprising to me. Listen, there's sharp
guys last week that played the San fran Buffalo Cincinnati
parlay and got the money. But I'll tell you what,
they shouldn't have one of those teams on Sunday should
have lost. So they But but you know, these guys
run good sometimes, and I understand all these information, all
(34:27):
these things that are out there, I think they're in
the line. I think this is all baked in the line.
You know, you have eight at one sports book that
controls the market. You have seven and a half of
everywhere else. Should be a great game, look forward to it.
I think it's gonna be. It might be better than
than than this line dictates. You know, I'm looking at
Daniel Jones here, crack. Let me run this by you.
Curious if you're buying this or not. But I look
(34:49):
at Daniel Jones Giants quarterback. His passing number is at
to sixteen and a half. And I went back and
looked at Danny Dimes over here, and he's carved up
of Vikings whose past defense is just decrepit. And he
hasn't done a whole lot of carving up other NFL
teams and defenses. If you look at him against the
Eagles in the regular season through for a hundred sixty
(35:12):
nine yards, I'm leaning towards the under. I think the
under is a solid play. I think he get it
at the right time. The Eagles have the best pass
defense in football. They give up on average goodness. It's
only what a hundred seven. They give up just under
one eighty per game against the past, so I'm leaning
(35:32):
toward the under Daniel Jones passing number. But how about
this also, crack, look at his rushing total forty three
and a half. We're all looking at Jalen Hurts and
rightfully so how much is he gonna rush? But Daniel Jones,
he's Jalen Hurts for the season seven hundred sixty rushing
yards Daniel Jones seven oh eight and that's on forty
(35:53):
five fewer attempts. So Daniel Jones runs a lot. Man,
I could see him getting to forty four rushing yards
no problem. Huh, Well, I hate to say it. I
only have one total for the week I'm looking at.
I was looking at the first half over in this
game and a half, but uh, you know, this happens
a lot when teams score a lout in the first half,
they don't that the game doesn't go over in the
(36:14):
full game. So we'll see what happens here by game time.
You brought up some good points there, and uh, you know,
we'll see what happens. The game opened up forty seven.
I know one sharp group that went over the forty seven.
It's up to forty eight now pretty solid, just a
solid vanilla forty eight. It's not even a forty seven
and a half or forty eight and a half anywhere.
Don't worry though, towards game time, when the volume comes
(36:35):
comes in, these games will be moving around for sure,
because the public loves to bet every single game. It's
on TV. They're drinking, were their buddies in a bar
or sports book. Everyone's gotta have action. I understand how
that that. Man, it's overused. I use it on every show.
I understand what the human condition is. We need action.
I get it. I get it. It's very sociable, it's
(36:55):
very fun, it's glamorous. But just just you know, bet
with your head, not over real fast crack. Could This
would be a good way to end the podcast. Not
every square pick is wrong, and you know that we
all know. But what just based on what you said
right there, these games are on TV, you're with your buddies,
you want to have some action. What do you think
(37:15):
is you look at all these games might be the
biggest square pick heading in man. I'll tell you, I
think it will be money lines, spending betting, money lines,
on on Kansas City and Philadelphia. They that this is
what they do. They they'll bet money line Kansas City,
money line Philadelphia and throw it in with like a Buffalo,
like like a three team money line parlay. And um,
(37:37):
those money line parlays are how the sports books make
their living. It's happened all throughout this year. Sports books
made a fortune off money line parlay's I look for
I look forward to Jason at bet MGM. He'll tell
you all you need to know, because again last week
Miami and Buffalo was one of the biggest game. It
was the biggest game, he said, the biggest game of
(37:58):
the year. More money was bet on Buffalo minus thirteen
and a half and even the money line. More money
was bet there than he's ever had since they opened
the app. He told us on the show. Immediately, I
I already leaned to the dog there immediately hearing that
I had to, I had to even put more on
the dog than in my mind mentally, and I and uh, unfortunately,
we had me and Jeff a rare time that we
(38:18):
were against each other. And um, I guess you know,
I understand you guys definitely thought that Buffalo was gonna
blow him out. I understand it looks so much easier
on paper, but it's amazing things just happen on these
games where they get them right the lines. That's where
I wonder. Gosh, I'm sorry, we're supposed to end this,
but we're just talking bald Man. We can talk to
the next nine hours. But that's what makes me wonder
(38:41):
about Dallas San Francisco. It looks better on paper for
San Francisco. I mean, that's the way it'll play out
during the game. But I mean I just thought Buffalo
was gonna have their way with my poor Dolphins, and
that didn't happen. So you're right. Sometimes the games look
better on paper than they do on the TV screen
or in person if you're at the game. And that
could be could be the Cowboys San Francisco this weekend.
(39:04):
We'll have to see absolutely. And don't don't ever think
I know that's your team. You even wore the color
jersey on our show, the color shirt. Let me tell
you something, Brian, they could have won that game. They
could have. They blew it, they could have won that game.
Terrible clock management, they could have won that game. So yeah,
they very well could have. Hey, be sure to check
out the new looking features in the bed mgm app.
It's fast and easy access to the sports you love,
(39:26):
whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost or the
cash out feature. New users can use the code countdown
for a special offer. All right, make sure you check
us out on Sunday. It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM. There'll be Bill kracken Burger, sports
handicapper from crack winds dot com. Great information, great picks,
(39:47):
sixteen of nineteen winning weeks in terms of being charted
by a listener over there. We'll take it as accurate,
right crack That sounds good to me. I know I
ran really good on the show, of course absolutely. Jeff
schwar It's eight year NFL veteran, will be with us.
I'm Brian No So it'll be ten am until one
pm Eastern Time on Sunday. Check us out on Fox
(40:09):
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