January 27, 2023 • 41 mins
Brian Noe previews Championship Weekend with the sharpest minds in betting! FSR Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to dive into trends you need to be aware of in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger joins Brian to break down which player props he is betting this weekend.
New users, Download the Bet MGM app today and use code COUNTDOWN for a special offer.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
the largest tailgate party in the nation. Let's go Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bat MGM, the
King of sports book. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win Free. Is
(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet mg app. Nah, We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no no oh. Welcome in.
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the official
(00:44):
podcast over here. We'll have Jared Smith, leadbetting analyst over
there at Fox Sports Radio. In just a minute, Bill
Crackenburger Sports Andy Kapitt from crack wins dot com. He'll
be along in just a few minutes. New users, download
the bet MGM app today and use code countdown first.
I shall offer that's code countdown in the bet MGM app.
I'm Brian though, Okay, let's welcome him man, Jared Smith,
(01:08):
fresh off of the divisional round, which, hey man, it
was ball and that's about as much as I can
say about it. We got some drama with the Cowboys
and Niners. But man, that was not exactly uh dramatic
football last weekend, which is billed as the best weekend
of the entire season. So I'm hoping for a lot
more drama during Championships Sunday over here. Yeah, I think
(01:32):
the cream rose to the top. I think that definitely,
Like we we got the four best teams this week,
and you know, the Bills have been kind of in
that vein all year long, and they've been a little
volatile because of Josh Allen. But four of the top
five teams in the d v o A ratings are
playing this weekend, with the Bills being the only one
that that isn't So I definitely think these two games
(01:55):
offer very intriguing handicaps. You throw a Mahomes ankle injury
into the mix and a lot of uncertainty with both games.
I think I feel a little bit more certain about
what's gonna happen in Philly with the Bengals Chiefs game.
It really is dependent on on on how Paddy feels. Well,
let's start with that Niners Eagles game. Let's not let's
(02:15):
cut right to the chase. What do you think is
going to happen in that game. Get more confident about
that one. What are you confident about? Well, I think
I'll preface it with this because the only bet that
I've made so far this week we're recording this on
a Wednesday, is a Niners Chiefs teaser and it's a
very simple teaser. It's kind of the exact same, you
know strategy last week. It's the the Wong teaser strategy.
(02:38):
Move up through both key numbers, and you just kind
of hope for for two close games when you dig
into the line movement a little bit, when you actually
look at the matchup, I think Philly has a little
bit of an edge and I do think they will
likely win the game more scenarios than not because I
I've seen some you know, chinks in the armor a
little bit with the Niners defending mobile quarter backs, and
(03:01):
I think that's gonna be a big factor in this game. Now.
I know that their defense wasn't fully healthy for this
game back I think it was Week six, but very
early in the season, Marcus Mariota kind of shredded them
and the quarterback design runs were very successful, and I
think the play action off the quarterback design runs was
even more successful. And that's going to be the big
factor in this game because the one Niners weakness all
(03:21):
year has been the secondary. So if they can get
the running game going and if Jalen Hurts legs can
be a factor, then you you know, add in the
RPO play action game off of that, and they've got
two great stud receiver Smith um and and and um
A J. Brown And I think those are the two
guys that are going to cause a lot of problems.
Unlike last week when it was more running game and
(03:43):
it was more tight end play with Goddard, I think
the outside play and the play action Jalen Hurts his
legs will be a massive, massive factor in this game.
And I think that's where the Eagles have a bit
of an edge. Well A J. Brown is hoping for
that so he doesn't have to throw another temper tantrum
with only three matches. I love how some of these
diva wide receivers spin it like oh no, no, no,
(04:04):
I'm not I'm not a malcontent really because you look
like one last week only getting three catches while you
were steamrolling the Giants. But I digress, I digress. You've
got a couple of notes over here, Jared. Let's start
with the Niners how they fared against mobile quarterbacks. And
you did see Jalen Hurts. This wasn't vintage Jalen Hurts
from the bulk of the regular season, but he's coming
(04:25):
back from that spring shoulder and he he did do
a little bit in the running game. He looked at
least healthy enough to be a weapon against the forty
Niners in this matchup. What have you seen from the
Niners how they fared against mobile qbs? Yeah, again that
specific matchup. So I threw out when I was looking
at Prior's I kind of pushed aside the Week one
(04:46):
game in Chicago. First of all, it was Week one
of the regular season. Second of all, it was a
torrential downpour. Third of all, it was Trey Lance, a
quarterback in the game was already kind of low scoring
from the start, and that's not where I I tracked
this game game. So I threw that game out, and
I really honed in on that game in Week six
between the Falcons and the Niners, and again Mariota five
(05:08):
design quarterback runs for thirty five yards and a touchdown,
three first downs. He also had to scramble, and the
play action game was really deadly six for six on
throws with play action with two touchdown passes, and it's
time to throw rate was two point one four seconds,
which if you extrapolated that out for the full season,
would be the lowest shortest time to throw right of
(05:29):
any quarterback in the league. So the translation is they
were very decisive wide open throws on play action and
the running game was successful with Mariota. So I think
that's gonna be the big focus for Damiko Ryan's this week. Again,
a lot of starters were injured in that game, but
the scheme was the same, So you plug in some
of those better above replacement starters, maybe the run game
(05:49):
looks a little different. But I'd be concerned if I
was the Niners defense trying to defend Jalen Hurts on
the edge, because again that sets up a lot of
one on one matchups with really positive receivers. Again, Brown
and Smith two of the best, and against the secondary
that has been a little susceptible this year. I'm really
curious how much Jalen Hurts runs because against the Giants,
nine carries for thirty or four yards and a touchdown
(06:11):
pretty good. That's not bad, and especially off of that injury,
we didn't know how much he was gonna run at all,
so it was definitely a good sign for Philadelphia. I'm
just really curious how much he does run against the
forty niners because he might need to. He might need
to scramble and pick up some yards, use his legs
to be a weapon like that. How about the Philly defense?
The past defense has been fantastic, number one in the league.
(06:33):
But you've got some strength of schedule numbers over here,
you're diving in. I ficture you with the spectacles on
over here. Let's look a little bit closer at this
Philly defense. What have you uncovered here? Jared, Well, it's
it's funny because it's hard not to dive deeper when
you only have two games, but also you don't want
to analysis paralysis. But I do think the one thing
(06:55):
that I always rely on at this time of year
is who you face face and when you face them,
because I think our our overall rollers. The NFL season
is a roller coaster, so they're every team playing this
weekend has had weeks where they've looked really bad, and
every team playing this weekend, for the most part, has
been really good. The Eagles defense has been fantastic almost
throughout the entire season. But if you look at the
(07:18):
last eight weeks, which is you know, the recent form matters.
That's that's why we wait a lot of these you
know numbers. They faced seven teams. Five of the seven
have offensive lines that are bottom five and pressure rate alout.
They faced the Giants three times, the Bears, and the Titans.
Those three units arguably three of the worst offensive lines
(07:38):
in the league. The two best offensive lines that the
Eagles have faced in the last two months have been
the Saints and the Cowboys, and they lost both games.
And they gave up forty to the Cowboys in that game.
So I could see the Niners offensive line last week,
it was just, you know, it was basically they drew
a spot right where Daniel Jones was standing and the
Eagles just collapsed the pocket. I don't see that being
(07:59):
the case this week around Brock Purty. Now, the Cowboys
did a really good job in moving Purty off his spot,
but I don't know if the Cowboys. I think Cowboys
defense is best in the league frankly at getting pressure,
and I don't think the Eagles defense is gonna be
as successful. And I could see the Niners blocking and
scheming very well, because that's who the Niners are. So
as good as the Eagles defense look last week, and
(08:19):
as good as they've looked, and they've been fantastic all year,
especially getting pressure and sacking the quarterback, I could see
Brock Purty in the offense having a little more success,
probably on the outside game running the game, is running
the ball as well than than than what the Giants
did last week. You know what's interesting is this isn't,
for me, exactly a deep dive. I would say it's
a surface dive. But sometimes numbers on the surface can
(08:44):
still be pretty interesting. If you go back to, uh,
the Niners. While we're talking about both defenses over here
Philly and the Niners in this matchup, if you go
back to the Niners game last week against Dallas and
just ask the question like who ran the ball better?
Was it San Francisco or was it Dallas? I would
think most people would say San Francisco, and that technically
(09:06):
is the right answer. But what is interesting is that
both the Niners and the Cowboys average three point five
yards per rush. They had the same exact average per rush,
and it's just that the Niners ran it ten more
times and racked up a little bit more yardage that way.
But what's interesting in this matchup against Philly is Christian McCaffrey,
(09:27):
who rushed it only ten times for thirty five yards,
did have a touchdown last week against Dallas. How effective
is Christian McCaffrey with the calf injury that he's nursing
and that running game collectively, because the less that the
Niners are able to run it, the more brock Purty
will need to do. And against the number one past
(09:47):
defense in the NFL, that's not a great combination. So
I think it starts with the running game for the
forty Niners. How well do they run it against Philly.
That's a huge question in that game, I agree, I
think that. So the reason that I think the Niners,
you know, on the surface, looked better running the ball
is because at the end of the game they were
having a lot of success, whereas the Cowboys really shut
(10:07):
it down early and they turned brock Purty into a
passer early in the game, but in the second half
when they needed the drive to go down the field
and score the game winning touchdown. It was a lot
of Elijah Mitchell up the middle. I mean it was
just straight up the middle. McCaffrey was a little dinged up,
and that's something I've heard from from some Niners people
that I UH talked to this week. His under in
(10:28):
attempts prop could be um something to look at because
I've heard he's a little dinged up. Elijah Mitchell also
a little dinged up, and if the Niners are behind,
you downgrade the running game as well a little bit.
So I think game script and injury updates might keep
me off of McCaffrey prop to the over this week.
But the rushing attempts under I think has maybe a
(10:48):
little value if you can find. Fourteen and a half
is where I was kind of seeing the peak in
the market. No interesting. Let's move over to the a
f C matchup here, Chiefs hosting the Bengals. Candid Chiefs,
fine league, get over the Bengals hump like sounds pretty crazy.
But Mahomes oh and three oh for three against Joe
Burrow and the Bengals, And that's the million dollar question.
(11:10):
We have to start with Mahomes. The high ankle Sprain.
No rushing props right now on bed MGM, no rushing total, nothing,
none of that, which I find is interesting. I mean, again,
surface level, a surface dive. How effective you think Patrick
Mahomes is gonna be with that ankle injury. He's gonna
(11:32):
be fine. I And and last week, the Bengals offensive
line was the most talked about thing in the entire
of the entire week, besides you know, some of the
really you know, obvious quarterback matchups, but the biggest talking
point was how are the Bengals gonna protect Joe Burrow?
And and I bought into it too, but that wasn't
(11:55):
a factor at all. I think this week it's Mahomes ankle.
And I'm not saying he's gonna be a percent I'm
not I'm not saying at and I'm sure there will
be some moments where he looks limited. But I would
take a seventy Patrick Mahomes, then I would say the
other quarterbacks in the league, and that's He's just one
of those athletes that and I think this is also
(12:15):
one of those spots where the best athletes when they
get nicked up, and you know, Patrick's injury is serious,
but it's not like a c L torn a c
L torn U c L series. It's an injury that
he obviously can play through. He focuses in on other
areas because these guys are such good athletes that and
I can't speak to it because I'm not this level
of athlete, but from people that I've talked to that
(12:37):
are close to athletes when they get injuries, the star
star athletes, I think Kobe Bryant would would would would
miss an NBA Finals game if he had a sprained
ankle or Lebron James, Like, it's just it's just not happening.
And I'm sure he plays better on it because he
focuses on the other areas that he can control. And
I think Patrick's He's gonna still make some pretty britty,
jaw dropping throws this weekend. I think so too. I
(12:59):
just I keep wondering. And it was the day of
right the ankle injury against the Jags, but some of
the plays that he didn't make. I don't expect him
to not make any plays, but it's the special plays
that he routinely makes. If he's not able to make those,
then where does it leave you? Because there were a
couple of plays, there was a screen pass that he
(13:20):
one hopped his receiver and it's like, whoa like that,
That's not what we're used to with Mahomes. And it's
the off script stuff. It's him rolling out, it's him
extending a play, it's him doing some crazy razzle dazzle
of pirouette and a Kareem skyhook for a touchdown. It's like,
how did he do that? I don't know how many
times we're going to say that about Mahomes on Sunday.
(13:44):
And if he's not doing Mahomes like things like, let's
not forget this guy has been fully healthy, as they've
lost every time to the Bengals. So I'm not gonna
paint this picture like the Chiefs have no shot whatsoever,
because that would be foolish. Of course they have a shot.
But I just wonder how many of those special plays
that Mahomes would make fully healthy he's not going to make,
(14:06):
and how big of a difference that could swing the
game just right there before you get to any of
the other layers. But it's just Mahomes not being able
to be special that could prevent the Chiefs from losing
easily to prevent them from winning easily. I should say yeah.
I mean, I guess the question is defined special because
he I think he's gonna make some plays on Sunday
(14:26):
and you're gonna say, wow, he made that play with
the high ankle spring like that special? Like where like
where would you make the line that? Like? Is the
line wrong? Like the Chiefs are favored now, like after
what we saw yesterday with the Homes not limping and practicing,
are you saying that that the original line which was
you know yesterday before the Mahomes news, which was Chiefs
plus two and a half, Is that where you would
(14:47):
feel comfortable buying in on Kansas City then, because Patrick
is not going to make that those those plays right
as far as the special plays, go back to last week,
the beginning of the game, the jump pass. I don't
think he's making that throw against the Bengal uh the
play where he hit Kelsey for the first touchdown. He
rolls to the right, there's a linebacker draped all over him.
(15:07):
He throws it to Kelsey while falling down. I don't
think he's gonna make that play either. It's just those
type of plays where he's extending it he's doing something special.
I would expect him to manipulate his arm, angle and
do that type of stuff. But in terms of using
his legs to run away from defenders to either set
(15:28):
up him running the ball or a special pass or
something like that, I don't think we're gonna see that
from Mahomes. I think we're gonna see him do some
things like you just said, where you're like, wow, he
did that with the high ankle sprain, but you're not
going to say, man, he looks completely healthy. He looks
just like Patrick Mahomes. I don't think we're gonna say
that about him on Sunday. I hope you're wrong, because
(15:49):
that would make the game a lot less entertaining. I
think I don't really know how he feels, and I
don't know how he's going to look. I do think
the thing that I'm certain of is every single person
that I've talked to this week, it believes what you believe.
And that is what we heard last week with the
(16:09):
Bengals offensive line. And the one thing that I've learned
about this league is when everyone thinks it's gonna zig,
it's secs and so everyone's counting out Mahomes to make
any special place this week, and that means I think
he's gonna make a ton of special place. That's just
how I feel. We'll see if I'm wrong. I hope
you're right, but I think you're wrong. I mean he's
gonna do. I can't imagine that he's just gonna be
(16:31):
pedestrian performance. He doesn't do anything special. He's too good,
even with the high ankle sprain from not to do
anything special. I'm just saying I don't think we're I
think we're gonna see a clear difference. That's all I'm saying. Oh, yeah,
of course we're not. He's not going to be. But
I think we're underestimating the value of Andy Reid, and
(16:52):
I think we're underestimating his his eyes and his brain
and his arm. And what makes Patrick Mahomes great is
his ability to make the right play in the right spot,
and his legs get him there sometimes. But I think
right now we are focused too much on one body
part and not the full Mahomes body. Again, eyes are
(17:15):
that's what makes Patrick special. There's a lot of guys
that have really great arms, but it's the eyes and
the brain that is not sprained this week. That is
really what makes him the best, and that is still
functioning at a I trust Andy Reid, who also eyes
and brain unmatched, to make sure that there's a game. See,
that's the difference. The game plan that we saw last
(17:36):
Sunday when he got hurt, was was for that game
or that Saturday, excuse me, was for that game. Andy
Reid has eight days to plan out something to make
this work. And Patrick again, eyes, arm, brain, unmatched legs.
There's plenty of guys with legs like Patrick in the league. Eyes, arm, brain,
nobody has that combination. That's where I think people are
(17:58):
underestimating what Patrick can do this week and what the
Chief's offense escapable of well, I think if you climb
into the shoes of Lou and a Rumo, the Bengals
defensive coordinator, how do you go about attacking the Chiefs?
And the first thing is, you know, one of the
first things is try to limit the running game, right,
like limit that because if you look at the Bengals
(18:20):
last week good, I'm sorry, the Chiefs last week against
Jacksonville good on the ground, they averaged just under five
yards per rush. That's good. What's interesting is Jacksonville had
the same exact number of rushing yards. They both rushed
for one four the Jags and the Chiefs in that game,
and the Chiefs had eleven more carry so that was
(18:42):
pretty interesting. I didn't realize Jacksonville's running game was as effective.
But if you're focusing on how do you defend the Chiefs,
try to limit the effectiveness of Isaiah Pacheco in that
running game. By the way, Pacheco's rushing prop is at
forty seven and a half. Seems pretty low, but you
focus in on that. And then also, who killed the
(19:02):
Jags last week? It was Travis Kelsey. The dude had
fourteen catches. If I'm Luna Rumo, I'm trying to slow
down the running game and I'm bracketing Travis Kelsey, and
I'm making dudes like MVS and Juju and Tony and
those dudes beat me when Mahomes isn't feeling a hundred percent,
I am not allowing Travis Kelsey. I remember how Bill
(19:26):
Belichick used to shut down both Kelsey and Tyreek Hill.
There's no Tyreek Hill. How Travis Kelsey gets fourteen catches
without a number one wide receiver around him is freaking crazy.
That will not happen against the real defensive coordinator in
Luna Rumo. Yeah, I agree. And and the Jaguars, I mean,
(19:46):
it was a terrible matchup. They struggle to defend tight
ends even when they're trying to defend them. And you know,
they couldn't guard the Chargers tight ends either, and the
Jaguars just didn't. They knew that, all right, Travis Kelsey
is gonna get his we have to try to figure
out a way, um to stop the other guys. And
they really didn't do a good job doing anything. Frankly,
(20:07):
if if Henny doesn't you know, if Mahomes doesn't get
hurt in that game, I think the Chiefs win, probably
by by two or three scores. But you know, it
was a different game. Once the injury happened, things change
and lu and a rum has done a fantastic job
of making adjustments. So this was a defensive coordinator. We
talked about this a few weeks ago when they faced
the box. You know, they were getting their butts kicked
in the first half of that Tampa Bay game. And
then Lou goes in a halftime and makes adjustments and
(20:29):
you know, contrary to Peyton Manning's belief. I think the
coaches probably do make some adjustments at halftime. Maybe the
players just get their gatorade and drink their uh, you know,
eat their eat their protein bars before they go back out,
But the coaches make adjustments. And and Tom Brady didn't
cross midfield in the third quarter of that game against
the Bengals, and then in Week thirteen. So Travis Kelsey
(20:49):
went off in the a C Championship game last year,
ten catches ninety five yards and a touchdown the rematch
in Week thirteen, and it was a pretty highly build game.
Obviously there was some you know, standing and seeding implications,
but also anytime the Chiefs and the Bengals face each other,
now it's going to have this you know, drip, the
drama that drips because of what happened in the ancient
title game last year. Well, lou and Ruma said, all right, Travis,
(21:10):
I'm not letting you beat me this time. And it's
ironic because the Bengals actually give up a ton of
yards to slot receivers. Their third worst in defending the
slot this year, giving up over nine yards per pass
against wide receivers. They're about six and a half yards
per pass, So they're much better guarding the number one
wide receivers than they are the slot guys. Well, Travis
(21:30):
Kelsey lines up in the slot more than any other
player on the Chief's roster. In that game in Week thirteen,
he lined up seventeen times in the slot. It was
only targeted five times, had four catches for fifty six yards.
He fumbled. It was his worst game of the year.
The only time he even had any space at all
was Money was matched up on the middle linebacker Logan
Wilson when it was Bates the safety, Hilton their best
(21:51):
cover corner, and Von Bell their other safety lined up
directly with Kelsey in the slot. Just three targets to
catches nineteen yards. So that's the adjustment that lou makes.
Eason long Data says the Bengals struggle against slot guys.
But he moved Bell Hilton, one of his best cover guys,
into the slot to face Hi Kelsey in that game,
and you saw the light bulb switch. Now, where does
(22:12):
Kelsey line up in this game? Who freaking knows? Andy
Read could put him in the backfield for all we know.
But I definitely think there is a bit of a
of a of a changeup that needs to be made
with the Chief's offense because I think Lou's gotta beat
on on on Kelsey in the slot. Well, I would
say this. The last thing on my end is it's
(22:32):
interesting always in football how a wounded animal is more dangerous.
And I mean that team wise, I mean it collectively.
Were last week it was the Bengals who had this
decimated offensive line, three starters out, and they played great
against Buffalo, and part of that was Buffalo's pass rush
(22:53):
was non existent. But you gotta give credit to Joe
Burrow that offensive line. They gave up one sack against Buffalo,
and I think collectively they know they know when they
have a weak spot. The whole team knows that, and
they stepped it up big time against Buffalo. It's gonna
be really interesting with Kansas City with their guy Patrick Mahomes,
(23:13):
who is wounded right now. He's got the high ankle sprain,
and I want to see just how the Chiefs respond
to that. How much does the defense pick it up?
Does that defense come out and they are just psychos
in the best way possible. With Chris Jones, with Frank Clark,
and they they take advantage of that Bengals offensive line.
(23:35):
I want to know just collectively how much the people
around Patrick Mahomes pick up their play because they know
their star is Incent. That is fascinating about football and
you see it time and time and time again. But hey,
both uh, both teams are wounded in terms of that
offensive line for the Bengals, Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs,
(23:57):
something's gotta give. But that's just something we can get into.
The nerd numbers and the deep dives and all that stuff.
Some of it is just like back against the wall.
Our guy is hurt. It's time to pick it up.
And sometimes teams do play above their average and above
their heads. We'll see what happens on Sunday. Yeah, I
think you nailed it. I honestly think because of all
(24:18):
of the negative things we're hearing about the Chiefs this week,
and everyone is betting the Bengals. About eight out of
ten human beings who are gambling this week are are
betting the Bengals. You know, that's what you know? Who
I like they stuff just half of that um. But
I think this is the rare opportunity where we bet
the Chiefs as a contrarian bet at home with Patrick Mahomes.
(24:38):
Understand it is a very rare operative. We might never
get this opportunity ever again to bet the Chiefs as
a home underdog, and they're not home underdogs anymore, but
you had a pretty big gap yesterday and into Monday
where you could have bet them as a home underdog
in a playoff game with Patrick Mahomes officially playing. I
know it's an official official, but it's pretty official. Like
(25:00):
I think that's that might have been the only time
in his whole career that he's a home underdog in
the playoff game. I honestly believe that. Let's we get
to like, you know, at the end of his career,
when he's you know, running around like like like me,
like you know, spritling, limping around the field. Um. Literally
you're gonna say Brady, but you went straight to you.
I like, yeah, well, Brady's a freak. I can't I
(25:22):
can't you know, speak speak negatively about about Tom. But
it might be the only time he's ever home underdog
in his whole career. And he's not even gonna close
at home underdog, but you had a chance to bet
him as a home doog this week, so we'll see
how it plays out. Should be a fun game, Yeah,
it should be a lot of fun. Okay, Hey, check
us out on Saturday. So we'll have Rich orn Berger
Penn State All American with us, Jared Smith lead betting analyst,
(25:43):
Fox Sports Radio, also myself Brian no So Saturday on
Fox Sports Radio nine am until noon Eastern Time. We'll
get you all set for Championship Sunday and beyond. Lots
of ball to discuss, so make sure you check us out.
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented I bet MGM. Catch us
on Fox Sports Radio Saturday. Earn a fifty dollar bonus
(26:05):
by signing into bet MGM and clicking on refer a
friend to invite a friend, and in just a few
simple steps, both you and your friend will receive a
fifty dollar bonus. Bet MGM, the King of Sports books.
All right, I want to welcome in here Bill Crack
and Burger sports Handycapper from crack wins dot com, and man,
we are getting all set for Championship Sunday. Over here,
(26:25):
Championship Sunday, let's just get into this Bengals Chiefs matchup crack.
It's all about Mahomes, the ankle injury. How effective is
he gonna be? Right now? At bet MGM, the Chiefs
are a one point favorite. We've got a lot of
line movement throughout the week, probably gonna get a lot
more leading up to game time. You've got a prop
bet already, but you're against your own prop guy. I
(26:48):
want to hear this whole story, Crack, what's uh? What's
the story? So yesterday, I guess look pretty good on
the field automatically a couple of different sharp groups, including my, my, my,
my buddy, who's really good at props. He's a winning
prop player. He said, we always should be over two
eighty and a half on Mahomes and on his yards,
over on his attempts, over on completions. I was real
(27:09):
hesitant to do that because listen, Okay, great, I know
it's it's probably a little bit lower than it should
be with a healthy Mahomes. However, one little crack at
this guy's leg, he's done. Even if it comes out
for two series. You know, the yardage prop is dead,
you know, so unless there's some big breakaway touchdowns or something.
(27:31):
But I am not. I'm hesitant to bet over now anyway,
this time of the year, more than any I'll be
looking to bet under on a lot. I'm not gonna
bet under Mahomes. I'm not doing that. But I'm just
not as sure as he is at the over here. Now.
Do I want it to win? Yeah, I wanted to win, absolutely,
but I'm just hesitant to bet at myself. Um, you
(27:53):
can still there's still two eighty one and a half
in the market. Bet MGM had two eighty and a
half just this morning. I think they, I think they still.
I mean, it's it's just something I'm not betting because
I just know that in that team locker room. Just
think about Cincinnati, they're they don't want to hurt the guy,
but they wouldn't mind hurting his like m You know, yeah,
(28:14):
I wonder how often it happens to you crack where
putting the money on the table sometimes changes You're thinking
like this, right, Like uh, if you go in thinking, oh,
Bengals Mahomes is injured, oh and you fork down whatever
is a significant amount to you. There are a lot
of times where you're like, oh, you start seeing the
(28:34):
other way where it's like, but Mahomes might be healthy enough,
the Chiefs might make some place. How often does it
happen to you where you go in like, oh gosh,
I love this bet, and then you fork your money down.
You're like, oh, man, I see all the ways this
could go wrong. Huh. Well, I have been known to
get off things. So if I bet something I've seen
(28:56):
some reasoning or logic the other way, I'll get off
of it. But it's rare because I hate the a
negative EV eleven to ten the other way, giving back
some of the negative EV to the to the sports books. Um,
this particular week, I thought, when and when since he
went to be a favorite. Wow, imagine getting Casey at
home in the playoff spot like this as a home
dog cut, and uh, they were up there. Cincinnati was
(29:17):
up there. You know the two and a half points
at once, and uh, you know, I seen the book
that opens up the lines actually opened this game Kansas
City minus three. It lasted for two minutes, but it
was there. You could have bet Cincinnati plus three. So
literally you could have got both sides plus three lands juice.
So but you could have had that on a playoff game.
(29:37):
That would have been unbelievable. I did not get that
chance to do that. Um, this particular situation is is
now the line flip flop Kansas City's favorite by one,
a solid one everywhere. I even see this game probably
going to one and a half by game time. But um,
you know there's lots of eyeballs on these four teams
(29:59):
right now. The the NFS NFL Conference Championship games there there,
the bookmakers have to get the lines right. They you know,
they only have two games to put up there to
look at. So these bookmakers, you know, that's pretty hard
to get a line wrong for uh, this situation in
the conference championship games. There's no reason why people should
(30:19):
be forcing betting sides here when you have so many
secondary markets, proposition markets, alternate line markets. Uh, there's other
things you can be betting on. You don't have to
bet on the ironed out NFL side. It's interesting to
crack where uh you're leaning Cincinnati here. And I would
actually give you a compliment on this because, uh, man,
(30:42):
the Bengals are a huge public play right now. Like
eight out of ten people are on the Bengals here,
and sharp guys like you you know, sometimes they're like
I gotta be on the sharp side. No matter what
I I don't know how you think about it, Crack,
I think about it. It's not about the public side,
the sharp side. It's about the winnings side. And you've
gotta think for yourself, like sometimes you're along with the public,
(31:04):
sometimes you're against the public. But if you feel stronger
on one side than the other, I really don't get
caught up. And is it the public side is at
the sharp side. So break that down for a sharp crack.
How do you go about um diagnosing a game? And well,
whether you've even entertain what's the public and what's it's
it's a good subject. Most most people, what they'll do
(31:26):
is that when these sports books will talk about that,
they'll say, oh, we have a public money on this side,
well or sharp money on this side, whatever it may be.
They can't get down on that side. You can't get
down on that side of of of a game. And
you know when you can't get down that side at
that number, So no longer should that they even be discussed.
(31:46):
I mean that that number. So whenever even when like
Jason comes on ABN MGM, I want to know, like
this this week in particular, I think this would be
a good segment with him where he'll tell us exactly
what what they need at the number, because I want
to know that. Listen, if he says he needs something
at you know plus two, that they booked a lot
(32:06):
of plus two and now the lines minus one, well
that doesn't mean it's the public side anymore. That doesn't
mean that's just what they needed that number. I want
to know what they need at the current number. That's
what I really want to know. And I haven't even
asked Jason that all season, and I hope I remember
to ask him on Sunday. If not, Brian ask him that,
because I want to know what they needed the current number,
not not what they needed that a number that moved
(32:28):
three points so um, because then then what that what
happens is the listening public said, oh, I gotta be
on the bookmaker, soide, I'll jump on that. Well, maybe
you're jumping on three points worse. The bookmaker will still
win and you'll lose. Yeah, that's a good point. If
we shift over to the NFC matchup San Francisco at Philly,
Philly a two and a half point favorite as we
speak right now on Thursday, and you made a comment
(32:51):
right before we started recording this crack where you're still
trying to find someone who likes san fran and I
feel the same way. It's it's hard to find him.
And look, we all know their credentials. They've got a
strong defense, they've got weapons galore offensively, brock Purty not
being one of them, but they do have a lot
of talent around the quarterback. I just look at this
(33:12):
crack where look if that if that forty Niners running
game is just okay, And that's how it was against Dallas.
Going up against Philly's number one past defense on the
road that's a lot different than facing Dallas at home
is one of the first surface things I think of
when I look at this matchup. Yeah, no, no, and listen,
(33:34):
this game can go either way. Nothing would surprise me.
San Franci beat that could beat them by ten, Philadelphia
cold beat them by ten. Nothing would surprise me in
this game. We all know san France on a roll. Uh.
Philly kind of showed that they aren't the you know,
the team that they were at the beginning of the season.
Towards the end of the season or even the middle.
When Washington beat them at home in this spot, so
(33:56):
anything could happened, like we say on any given Sunday,
especially uh in championship games here we've seen over the years. So, um, listen,
do I think Philly is gonna win the game? Sure,
I really do. I think Philly's gonna win. But that
I bet it with my money? No, I didn't bet it.
I didn't bet it and didn't bet. But do I
think they're gonna win? You? I think they'll win there
at home there, They're in a good spot there and
(34:17):
then and uh, you know, I always talked about how
hard it is to play at the link and uh,
they're they're they're a good first half team. That could
be a bet. I mean, there's so many ways to
to bet this game. Um again, I'll be looking at
secondary markets and proposition markets. I won't be looking at
a side. One thing that you're looking at is Miles Sanders,
the Eagles running back. What are you thinking in terms
(34:39):
of attempts yards? What's your your first breakdown as far
as that goes crack? Yeah, we have um we we
we we have under we have under on on him. Um.
I didn't even bet it yet that much. Sanders under
fourteen and a half attempts under fifty six and a
half yards. Um, I leaned to bull to them, and
(35:00):
I think that's gonna be that. It's gonna be that
type of a game though that uh sanders will um
you know coming under fourteen and a half attempts a
lot of attempts, Jesus, just a lot of attempts for
anyone any given Sunday. But uh so leaning towards that,
and um, I'll have a lot of unders more towards
game time, hoping some of the more mare keen names. Um,
(35:23):
that that that will get be be getting bet over.
I mean, think about it. Do you know anyone that's
betten like a kiddle under? Do you know anyone betting right?
I mean, who's betting under on that? Nobody? So the
bookmakers add five, six, eight ten yards to that number
already it may act and they'll still bet over the public.
So I may even get a better better yardage on him,
(35:46):
and and and and another, you know, all all the
guy all to keep running backs receivers every you may
get the key ones. Because public loves to bet over.
It's fun to bet over. It's so boring to bet
under and not wanting any action, you know, I mean, yeah,
I just we've seen it in these games. It happened
to me last week, Crack and you too. We You
(36:07):
were on borrow the completion over and I was on
the attempts over, and we easily would have gotten there,
but the bills got blown out, the bills forgot to
show up, and the bank is just running the ball
at the end. I don't losing, but well, I'm just
saying that's how that reality. So the point is, though,
(36:29):
how these games play out. Is Philly up in the
fourth quarter, Well, the Miles Sanders thing that that might
not work out is San Francisco trailing in the fourth
quarter what looked to be great kittle under that could
blow up in your face, right Like. It really does
depend on I think the forecast of prop bets. You
(36:50):
really got to start with which side thea like, right Like,
I would start with that and then just use that
as a gauge. I'm not saying that would prevent went
me from betting over under on a prop, but it's
just something to consider instead of just diving into props
and like oh this guy, like, really think about how
you guess the game will play out and who's leading
(37:12):
by how much? Late in that type of thing. Yep, yep, yep, No,
it's it's it's really good good points. And I was
thinking Kid, but I met Kelsey but Kid, Oh yeah,
well Kelsey everyone and a kittle too. But everyone's betting Kelly.
I can't name anyone betting Kelsey on there. Oh yeah,
he's not gonna do good this game. That could be
a really good bet crack. It could, but it could be.
(37:33):
But that I guess it could be if Kansas City's
go ahead in the fourth quarter. Well, and also, I
just I'm curious why, like Tyreek Hill we all know
is not on this team anymore. Belichick did a good
job of bracketing and slowing down Kelsey and Tyreek Hill
at the same time a few years ago. Right, there's
(37:54):
no Tyreek Hill. So if you're lou and and Rumo,
the Bengals defensive coordinator, how do you allow Kelsey to
do anything significant in this game? Mahomes is banged up? Right?
Who are the other receivers that scare you? Is it Juju?
Is it envs? Is it Tony? There's nobody like make
(38:14):
those dudes beat you. Don't let Travis Kelsey, do it sure, sure, sure?
A lot of those guys, uh that that are the
you know, even backups, even the backups. I was reading
you know that this this particular week is a good
week to bet on some of those backups. Bet bet
you know the so um uh it's it's it should
(38:35):
be Listen, I'm saying, bet on them. What I'm trying
to say is it's actually a week that they put
they put yards up, which a lot of to get
any given someday, they don't put the yards up on
the on the backup guys. So this week they'll have
yards on a lot of different people because there's only
two games to bet on, so they want they want
you to bet much action as you can. Bet. Might
be some good good uh unders on those guys too
(38:57):
that are never featured in the market, so usually only
the super Bowl and and this Championship round. So it
should be fun. It should be a really fun weekend
looking forward to these games big time. And you know
it's funny, Brian, You guys don't know this. We filmed
the show the other day and um, when we're having
our Sunday show. For some reason, the entire week I'm
(39:19):
thinking to myself, God, I can't believe we're gonna be
doing our show and the first hour of the game
we're basically gonna miss I'm not even thinking because I'm
so much back East Coast, West Coast, East coast, West Coast.
I wasn't even thinking I'm on the West Coast. I
still got two hours, so I was able to run
around and do some stuff after our show. But I
was like, oh my god, How're we gonna the same
thing this week? Twelve o'clock start and our show is
(39:40):
seven to ten here in Vegas. So I'm happy to
be happy to know that I have two full hours
to get down on San fran Philadelphia stuff. But I'll
have great stuff during the show, like I always do.
I'll get literally when it's like like late breaking news
when it hits the TV. Every week, I get breaking
news or you know, breaking plays for my guys, and
I get him out on on our show, which is fantastic.
(40:02):
It's been a great year, by the way, great year
giving out stuff on that show. I've run so well
on our Countdown the kickoff show. Wow Wow. Cincinnati scoring
first again last week at the end of the game,
gave out all four quarterbacks under one and a half
that went three and one. It's just every week was
has has really been running really well on the show
and I hope to continue that to the last quarter
(40:23):
here of the shows. I love it. Hey be sure
to check out the new looking features in the bed
MGM app. It's fast and easy access to the sports
you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost,
or the cash Out Featured. New users can use the
code countdown for a special offer, just like Crack was saying,
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM
that will be on Sunday with myself, Brian Noe, Bill
(40:46):
Crack and Burger from crack wins dot com and our guy,
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran who is a die
hard Chiefs fan. I wonder, Crack, how how ticked off?
I really could I controlled Jeff on Sunday and just
be angles Bengals, Bengals, Bengals and see if I can
get Schwartz to turn red. I really could. I could.
This is one skill I have. K he you sens
(41:13):
on the text threat just a little where I'm like, hey, man, Bengals.
I like the Bengals in this one. He's like, oh, oh,
so the Chiefs have no chance? Uh, Brian like, they
have no chance. But I'm not saying that, Jeff. He's
already worked up on the texts. Craig. I could get
him to just blow a gasket on Sunday if you
want me to, you know, just let me know. I
can make that happen. But yeah, it will be Sunday
(41:35):
from ten am until one pm Eastern time, so we'll
get you all set for Championships Sunday. Join us then
on Fox Sports Radio
Are you ready to witness great NFL fans? Welcome to
the largest tailgate party in the nation. Let's go Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bat MGM, the
King of sports book. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win Free. Is
(00:23):
the eight game. We're here to break it all top,
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet mg app. Nah, We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian no no oh. Welcome in.
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, the official
(00:44):
podcast over here. We'll have Jared Smith, leadbetting analyst over
there at Fox Sports Radio. In just a minute, Bill
Crackenburger Sports Andy Kapitt from crack wins dot com. He'll
be along in just a few minutes. New users, download
the bet MGM app today and use code countdown first.
I shall offer that's code countdown in the bet MGM app.
I'm Brian though, Okay, let's welcome him man, Jared Smith,
(01:08):
fresh off of the divisional round, which, hey man, it
was ball and that's about as much as I can
say about it. We got some drama with the Cowboys
and Niners. But man, that was not exactly uh dramatic
football last weekend, which is billed as the best weekend
of the entire season. So I'm hoping for a lot
more drama during Championships Sunday over here. Yeah, I think
(01:32):
the cream rose to the top. I think that definitely,
Like we we got the four best teams this week,
and you know, the Bills have been kind of in
that vein all year long, and they've been a little
volatile because of Josh Allen. But four of the top
five teams in the d v o A ratings are
playing this weekend, with the Bills being the only one
that that isn't So I definitely think these two games
(01:55):
offer very intriguing handicaps. You throw a Mahomes ankle injury
into the mix and a lot of uncertainty with both games.
I think I feel a little bit more certain about
what's gonna happen in Philly with the Bengals Chiefs game.
It really is dependent on on on how Paddy feels. Well,
let's start with that Niners Eagles game. Let's not let's
(02:15):
cut right to the chase. What do you think is
going to happen in that game. Get more confident about
that one. What are you confident about? Well, I think
I'll preface it with this because the only bet that
I've made so far this week we're recording this on
a Wednesday, is a Niners Chiefs teaser and it's a
very simple teaser. It's kind of the exact same, you
know strategy last week. It's the the Wong teaser strategy.
(02:38):
Move up through both key numbers, and you just kind
of hope for for two close games when you dig
into the line movement a little bit, when you actually
look at the matchup, I think Philly has a little
bit of an edge and I do think they will
likely win the game more scenarios than not because I
I've seen some you know, chinks in the armor a
little bit with the Niners defending mobile quarter backs, and
(03:01):
I think that's gonna be a big factor in this game. Now.
I know that their defense wasn't fully healthy for this
game back I think it was Week six, but very
early in the season, Marcus Mariota kind of shredded them
and the quarterback design runs were very successful, and I
think the play action off the quarterback design runs was
even more successful. And that's going to be the big
factor in this game because the one Niners weakness all
(03:21):
year has been the secondary. So if they can get
the running game going and if Jalen Hurts legs can
be a factor, then you you know, add in the
RPO play action game off of that, and they've got
two great stud receiver Smith um and and and um
A J. Brown And I think those are the two
guys that are going to cause a lot of problems.
Unlike last week when it was more running game and
(03:43):
it was more tight end play with Goddard, I think
the outside play and the play action Jalen Hurts his
legs will be a massive, massive factor in this game.
And I think that's where the Eagles have a bit
of an edge. Well A J. Brown is hoping for
that so he doesn't have to throw another temper tantrum
with only three matches. I love how some of these
diva wide receivers spin it like oh no, no, no,
(04:04):
I'm not I'm not a malcontent really because you look
like one last week only getting three catches while you
were steamrolling the Giants. But I digress, I digress. You've
got a couple of notes over here, Jared. Let's start
with the Niners how they fared against mobile quarterbacks. And
you did see Jalen Hurts. This wasn't vintage Jalen Hurts
from the bulk of the regular season, but he's coming
(04:25):
back from that spring shoulder and he he did do
a little bit in the running game. He looked at
least healthy enough to be a weapon against the forty
Niners in this matchup. What have you seen from the
Niners how they fared against mobile qbs? Yeah, again that
specific matchup. So I threw out when I was looking
at Prior's I kind of pushed aside the Week one
(04:46):
game in Chicago. First of all, it was Week one
of the regular season. Second of all, it was a
torrential downpour. Third of all, it was Trey Lance, a
quarterback in the game was already kind of low scoring
from the start, and that's not where I I tracked
this game game. So I threw that game out, and
I really honed in on that game in Week six
between the Falcons and the Niners, and again Mariota five
(05:08):
design quarterback runs for thirty five yards and a touchdown,
three first downs. He also had to scramble, and the
play action game was really deadly six for six on
throws with play action with two touchdown passes, and it's
time to throw rate was two point one four seconds,
which if you extrapolated that out for the full season,
would be the lowest shortest time to throw right of
(05:29):
any quarterback in the league. So the translation is they
were very decisive wide open throws on play action and
the running game was successful with Mariota. So I think
that's gonna be the big focus for Damiko Ryan's this week. Again,
a lot of starters were injured in that game, but
the scheme was the same, So you plug in some
of those better above replacement starters, maybe the run game
(05:49):
looks a little different. But I'd be concerned if I
was the Niners defense trying to defend Jalen Hurts on
the edge, because again that sets up a lot of
one on one matchups with really positive receivers. Again, Brown
and Smith two of the best, and against the secondary
that has been a little susceptible this year. I'm really
curious how much Jalen Hurts runs because against the Giants,
nine carries for thirty or four yards and a touchdown
(06:11):
pretty good. That's not bad, and especially off of that injury,
we didn't know how much he was gonna run at all,
so it was definitely a good sign for Philadelphia. I'm
just really curious how much he does run against the
forty niners because he might need to. He might need
to scramble and pick up some yards, use his legs
to be a weapon like that. How about the Philly defense?
The past defense has been fantastic, number one in the league.
(06:33):
But you've got some strength of schedule numbers over here,
you're diving in. I ficture you with the spectacles on
over here. Let's look a little bit closer at this
Philly defense. What have you uncovered here? Jared, Well, it's
it's funny because it's hard not to dive deeper when
you only have two games, but also you don't want
to analysis paralysis. But I do think the one thing
(06:55):
that I always rely on at this time of year
is who you face face and when you face them,
because I think our our overall rollers. The NFL season
is a roller coaster, so they're every team playing this
weekend has had weeks where they've looked really bad, and
every team playing this weekend, for the most part, has
been really good. The Eagles defense has been fantastic almost
throughout the entire season. But if you look at the
(07:18):
last eight weeks, which is you know, the recent form matters.
That's that's why we wait a lot of these you
know numbers. They faced seven teams. Five of the seven
have offensive lines that are bottom five and pressure rate alout.
They faced the Giants three times, the Bears, and the Titans.
Those three units arguably three of the worst offensive lines
(07:38):
in the league. The two best offensive lines that the
Eagles have faced in the last two months have been
the Saints and the Cowboys, and they lost both games.
And they gave up forty to the Cowboys in that game.
So I could see the Niners offensive line last week,
it was just, you know, it was basically they drew
a spot right where Daniel Jones was standing and the
Eagles just collapsed the pocket. I don't see that being
(07:59):
the case this week around Brock Purty. Now, the Cowboys
did a really good job in moving Purty off his spot,
but I don't know if the Cowboys. I think Cowboys
defense is best in the league frankly at getting pressure,
and I don't think the Eagles defense is gonna be
as successful. And I could see the Niners blocking and
scheming very well, because that's who the Niners are. So
as good as the Eagles defense look last week, and
(08:19):
as good as they've looked, and they've been fantastic all year,
especially getting pressure and sacking the quarterback, I could see
Brock Purty in the offense having a little more success,
probably on the outside game running the game, is running
the ball as well than than than what the Giants
did last week. You know what's interesting is this isn't,
for me, exactly a deep dive. I would say it's
a surface dive. But sometimes numbers on the surface can
(08:44):
still be pretty interesting. If you go back to, uh,
the Niners. While we're talking about both defenses over here
Philly and the Niners in this matchup, if you go
back to the Niners game last week against Dallas and
just ask the question like who ran the ball better?
Was it San Francisco or was it Dallas? I would
think most people would say San Francisco, and that technically
(09:06):
is the right answer. But what is interesting is that
both the Niners and the Cowboys average three point five
yards per rush. They had the same exact average per rush,
and it's just that the Niners ran it ten more
times and racked up a little bit more yardage that way.
But what's interesting in this matchup against Philly is Christian McCaffrey,
(09:27):
who rushed it only ten times for thirty five yards,
did have a touchdown last week against Dallas. How effective
is Christian McCaffrey with the calf injury that he's nursing
and that running game collectively, because the less that the
Niners are able to run it, the more brock Purty
will need to do. And against the number one past
(09:47):
defense in the NFL, that's not a great combination. So
I think it starts with the running game for the
forty Niners. How well do they run it against Philly.
That's a huge question in that game, I agree, I
think that. So the reason that I think the Niners,
you know, on the surface, looked better running the ball
is because at the end of the game they were
having a lot of success, whereas the Cowboys really shut
(10:07):
it down early and they turned brock Purty into a
passer early in the game, but in the second half
when they needed the drive to go down the field
and score the game winning touchdown. It was a lot
of Elijah Mitchell up the middle. I mean it was
just straight up the middle. McCaffrey was a little dinged up,
and that's something I've heard from from some Niners people
that I UH talked to this week. His under in
(10:28):
attempts prop could be um something to look at because
I've heard he's a little dinged up. Elijah Mitchell also
a little dinged up, and if the Niners are behind,
you downgrade the running game as well a little bit.
So I think game script and injury updates might keep
me off of McCaffrey prop to the over this week.
But the rushing attempts under I think has maybe a
(10:48):
little value if you can find. Fourteen and a half
is where I was kind of seeing the peak in
the market. No interesting. Let's move over to the a
f C matchup here, Chiefs hosting the Bengals. Candid Chiefs,
fine league, get over the Bengals hump like sounds pretty crazy.
But Mahomes oh and three oh for three against Joe
Burrow and the Bengals, And that's the million dollar question.
(11:10):
We have to start with Mahomes. The high ankle Sprain.
No rushing props right now on bed MGM, no rushing total, nothing,
none of that, which I find is interesting. I mean, again,
surface level, a surface dive. How effective you think Patrick
Mahomes is gonna be with that ankle injury. He's gonna
(11:32):
be fine. I And and last week, the Bengals offensive
line was the most talked about thing in the entire
of the entire week, besides you know, some of the
really you know, obvious quarterback matchups, but the biggest talking
point was how are the Bengals gonna protect Joe Burrow?
And and I bought into it too, but that wasn't
(11:55):
a factor at all. I think this week it's Mahomes ankle.
And I'm not saying he's gonna be a percent I'm
not I'm not saying at and I'm sure there will
be some moments where he looks limited. But I would
take a seventy Patrick Mahomes, then I would say the
other quarterbacks in the league, and that's He's just one
of those athletes that and I think this is also
(12:15):
one of those spots where the best athletes when they
get nicked up, and you know, Patrick's injury is serious,
but it's not like a c L torn a c
L torn U c L series. It's an injury that
he obviously can play through. He focuses in on other
areas because these guys are such good athletes that and
I can't speak to it because I'm not this level
of athlete, but from people that I've talked to that
(12:37):
are close to athletes when they get injuries, the star
star athletes, I think Kobe Bryant would would would would
miss an NBA Finals game if he had a sprained
ankle or Lebron James, Like, it's just it's just not happening.
And I'm sure he plays better on it because he
focuses on the other areas that he can control. And
I think Patrick's He's gonna still make some pretty britty,
jaw dropping throws this weekend. I think so too. I
(12:59):
just I keep wondering. And it was the day of
right the ankle injury against the Jags, but some of
the plays that he didn't make. I don't expect him
to not make any plays, but it's the special plays
that he routinely makes. If he's not able to make those,
then where does it leave you? Because there were a
couple of plays, there was a screen pass that he
(13:20):
one hopped his receiver and it's like, whoa like that,
That's not what we're used to with Mahomes. And it's
the off script stuff. It's him rolling out, it's him
extending a play, it's him doing some crazy razzle dazzle
of pirouette and a Kareem skyhook for a touchdown. It's like,
how did he do that? I don't know how many
times we're going to say that about Mahomes on Sunday.
(13:44):
And if he's not doing Mahomes like things like, let's
not forget this guy has been fully healthy, as they've
lost every time to the Bengals. So I'm not gonna
paint this picture like the Chiefs have no shot whatsoever,
because that would be foolish. Of course they have a shot.
But I just wonder how many of those special plays
that Mahomes would make fully healthy he's not going to make,
(14:06):
and how big of a difference that could swing the
game just right there before you get to any of
the other layers. But it's just Mahomes not being able
to be special that could prevent the Chiefs from losing
easily to prevent them from winning easily. I should say yeah.
I mean, I guess the question is defined special because
he I think he's gonna make some plays on Sunday
(14:26):
and you're gonna say, wow, he made that play with
the high ankle spring like that special? Like where like
where would you make the line that? Like? Is the
line wrong? Like the Chiefs are favored now, like after
what we saw yesterday with the Homes not limping and practicing,
are you saying that that the original line which was
you know yesterday before the Mahomes news, which was Chiefs
plus two and a half, Is that where you would
(14:47):
feel comfortable buying in on Kansas City then, because Patrick
is not going to make that those those plays right
as far as the special plays, go back to last week,
the beginning of the game, the jump pass. I don't
think he's making that throw against the Bengal uh the
play where he hit Kelsey for the first touchdown. He
rolls to the right, there's a linebacker draped all over him.
(15:07):
He throws it to Kelsey while falling down. I don't
think he's gonna make that play either. It's just those
type of plays where he's extending it he's doing something special.
I would expect him to manipulate his arm, angle and
do that type of stuff. But in terms of using
his legs to run away from defenders to either set
(15:28):
up him running the ball or a special pass or
something like that, I don't think we're gonna see that
from Mahomes. I think we're gonna see him do some
things like you just said, where you're like, wow, he
did that with the high ankle sprain, but you're not
going to say, man, he looks completely healthy. He looks
just like Patrick Mahomes. I don't think we're gonna say
that about him on Sunday. I hope you're wrong, because
(15:49):
that would make the game a lot less entertaining. I
think I don't really know how he feels, and I
don't know how he's going to look. I do think
the thing that I'm certain of is every single person
that I've talked to this week, it believes what you believe.
And that is what we heard last week with the
(16:09):
Bengals offensive line. And the one thing that I've learned
about this league is when everyone thinks it's gonna zig,
it's secs and so everyone's counting out Mahomes to make
any special place this week, and that means I think
he's gonna make a ton of special place. That's just
how I feel. We'll see if I'm wrong. I hope
you're right, but I think you're wrong. I mean he's
gonna do. I can't imagine that he's just gonna be
(16:31):
pedestrian performance. He doesn't do anything special. He's too good,
even with the high ankle sprain from not to do
anything special. I'm just saying I don't think we're I
think we're gonna see a clear difference. That's all I'm saying. Oh, yeah,
of course we're not. He's not going to be. But
I think we're underestimating the value of Andy Reid, and
(16:52):
I think we're underestimating his his eyes and his brain
and his arm. And what makes Patrick Mahomes great is
his ability to make the right play in the right spot,
and his legs get him there sometimes. But I think
right now we are focused too much on one body
part and not the full Mahomes body. Again, eyes are
(17:15):
that's what makes Patrick special. There's a lot of guys
that have really great arms, but it's the eyes and
the brain that is not sprained this week. That is
really what makes him the best, and that is still
functioning at a I trust Andy Reid, who also eyes
and brain unmatched, to make sure that there's a game. See,
that's the difference. The game plan that we saw last
(17:36):
Sunday when he got hurt, was was for that game
or that Saturday, excuse me, was for that game. Andy
Reid has eight days to plan out something to make
this work. And Patrick again, eyes, arm, brain, unmatched legs.
There's plenty of guys with legs like Patrick in the league. Eyes, arm, brain,
nobody has that combination. That's where I think people are
(17:58):
underestimating what Patrick can do this week and what the
Chief's offense escapable of well, I think if you climb
into the shoes of Lou and a Rumo, the Bengals
defensive coordinator, how do you go about attacking the Chiefs?
And the first thing is, you know, one of the
first things is try to limit the running game, right,
like limit that because if you look at the Bengals
(18:20):
last week good, I'm sorry, the Chiefs last week against
Jacksonville good on the ground, they averaged just under five
yards per rush. That's good. What's interesting is Jacksonville had
the same exact number of rushing yards. They both rushed
for one four the Jags and the Chiefs in that game,
and the Chiefs had eleven more carry so that was
(18:42):
pretty interesting. I didn't realize Jacksonville's running game was as effective.
But if you're focusing on how do you defend the Chiefs,
try to limit the effectiveness of Isaiah Pacheco in that
running game. By the way, Pacheco's rushing prop is at
forty seven and a half. Seems pretty low, but you
focus in on that. And then also, who killed the
(19:02):
Jags last week? It was Travis Kelsey. The dude had
fourteen catches. If I'm Luna Rumo, I'm trying to slow
down the running game and I'm bracketing Travis Kelsey, and
I'm making dudes like MVS and Juju and Tony and
those dudes beat me when Mahomes isn't feeling a hundred percent,
I am not allowing Travis Kelsey. I remember how Bill
(19:26):
Belichick used to shut down both Kelsey and Tyreek Hill.
There's no Tyreek Hill. How Travis Kelsey gets fourteen catches
without a number one wide receiver around him is freaking crazy.
That will not happen against the real defensive coordinator in
Luna Rumo. Yeah, I agree. And and the Jaguars, I mean,
(19:46):
it was a terrible matchup. They struggle to defend tight
ends even when they're trying to defend them. And you know,
they couldn't guard the Chargers tight ends either, and the
Jaguars just didn't. They knew that, all right, Travis Kelsey
is gonna get his we have to try to figure
out a way, um to stop the other guys. And
they really didn't do a good job doing anything. Frankly,
(20:07):
if if Henny doesn't you know, if Mahomes doesn't get
hurt in that game, I think the Chiefs win, probably
by by two or three scores. But you know, it
was a different game. Once the injury happened, things change
and lu and a rum has done a fantastic job
of making adjustments. So this was a defensive coordinator. We
talked about this a few weeks ago when they faced
the box. You know, they were getting their butts kicked
in the first half of that Tampa Bay game. And
then Lou goes in a halftime and makes adjustments and
(20:29):
you know, contrary to Peyton Manning's belief. I think the
coaches probably do make some adjustments at halftime. Maybe the
players just get their gatorade and drink their uh, you know,
eat their eat their protein bars before they go back out,
But the coaches make adjustments. And and Tom Brady didn't
cross midfield in the third quarter of that game against
the Bengals, and then in Week thirteen. So Travis Kelsey
(20:49):
went off in the a C Championship game last year,
ten catches ninety five yards and a touchdown the rematch
in Week thirteen, and it was a pretty highly build game.
Obviously there was some you know, standing and seeding implications,
but also anytime the Chiefs and the Bengals face each other,
now it's going to have this you know, drip, the
drama that drips because of what happened in the ancient
title game last year. Well, lou and Ruma said, all right, Travis,
(21:10):
I'm not letting you beat me this time. And it's
ironic because the Bengals actually give up a ton of
yards to slot receivers. Their third worst in defending the
slot this year, giving up over nine yards per pass
against wide receivers. They're about six and a half yards
per pass, So they're much better guarding the number one
wide receivers than they are the slot guys. Well, Travis
(21:30):
Kelsey lines up in the slot more than any other
player on the Chief's roster. In that game in Week thirteen,
he lined up seventeen times in the slot. It was
only targeted five times, had four catches for fifty six yards.
He fumbled. It was his worst game of the year.
The only time he even had any space at all
was Money was matched up on the middle linebacker Logan
Wilson when it was Bates the safety, Hilton their best
(21:51):
cover corner, and Von Bell their other safety lined up
directly with Kelsey in the slot. Just three targets to
catches nineteen yards. So that's the adjustment that lou makes.
Eason long Data says the Bengals struggle against slot guys.
But he moved Bell Hilton, one of his best cover guys,
into the slot to face Hi Kelsey in that game,
and you saw the light bulb switch. Now, where does
(22:12):
Kelsey line up in this game? Who freaking knows? Andy
Read could put him in the backfield for all we know.
But I definitely think there is a bit of a
of a of a changeup that needs to be made
with the Chief's offense because I think Lou's gotta beat
on on on Kelsey in the slot. Well, I would
say this. The last thing on my end is it's
(22:32):
interesting always in football how a wounded animal is more dangerous.
And I mean that team wise, I mean it collectively.
Were last week it was the Bengals who had this
decimated offensive line, three starters out, and they played great
against Buffalo, and part of that was Buffalo's pass rush
(22:53):
was non existent. But you gotta give credit to Joe
Burrow that offensive line. They gave up one sack against Buffalo,
and I think collectively they know they know when they
have a weak spot. The whole team knows that, and
they stepped it up big time against Buffalo. It's gonna
be really interesting with Kansas City with their guy Patrick Mahomes,
(23:13):
who is wounded right now. He's got the high ankle sprain,
and I want to see just how the Chiefs respond
to that. How much does the defense pick it up?
Does that defense come out and they are just psychos
in the best way possible. With Chris Jones, with Frank Clark,
and they they take advantage of that Bengals offensive line.
(23:35):
I want to know just collectively how much the people
around Patrick Mahomes pick up their play because they know
their star is Incent. That is fascinating about football and
you see it time and time and time again. But hey,
both uh, both teams are wounded in terms of that
offensive line for the Bengals, Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs,
(23:57):
something's gotta give. But that's just something we can get into.
The nerd numbers and the deep dives and all that stuff.
Some of it is just like back against the wall.
Our guy is hurt. It's time to pick it up.
And sometimes teams do play above their average and above
their heads. We'll see what happens on Sunday. Yeah, I
think you nailed it. I honestly think because of all
(24:18):
of the negative things we're hearing about the Chiefs this week,
and everyone is betting the Bengals. About eight out of
ten human beings who are gambling this week are are
betting the Bengals. You know, that's what you know? Who
I like they stuff just half of that um. But
I think this is the rare opportunity where we bet
the Chiefs as a contrarian bet at home with Patrick Mahomes.
(24:38):
Understand it is a very rare operative. We might never
get this opportunity ever again to bet the Chiefs as
a home underdog, and they're not home underdogs anymore, but
you had a pretty big gap yesterday and into Monday
where you could have bet them as a home underdog
in a playoff game with Patrick Mahomes officially playing. I
know it's an official official, but it's pretty official. Like
(25:00):
I think that's that might have been the only time
in his whole career that he's a home underdog in
the playoff game. I honestly believe that. Let's we get
to like, you know, at the end of his career,
when he's you know, running around like like like me,
like you know, spritling, limping around the field. Um. Literally
you're gonna say Brady, but you went straight to you.
I like, yeah, well, Brady's a freak. I can't I
(25:22):
can't you know, speak speak negatively about about Tom. But
it might be the only time he's ever home underdog
in his whole career. And he's not even gonna close
at home underdog, but you had a chance to bet
him as a home doog this week, so we'll see
how it plays out. Should be a fun game, Yeah,
it should be a lot of fun. Okay, Hey, check
us out on Saturday. So we'll have Rich orn Berger
Penn State All American with us, Jared Smith lead betting analyst,
(25:43):
Fox Sports Radio, also myself Brian no So Saturday on
Fox Sports Radio nine am until noon Eastern Time. We'll
get you all set for Championship Sunday and beyond. Lots
of ball to discuss, so make sure you check us out.
It's Countdown to Kickoff presented I bet MGM. Catch us
on Fox Sports Radio Saturday. Earn a fifty dollar bonus
(26:05):
by signing into bet MGM and clicking on refer a
friend to invite a friend, and in just a few
simple steps, both you and your friend will receive a
fifty dollar bonus. Bet MGM, the King of Sports books.
All right, I want to welcome in here Bill Crack
and Burger sports Handycapper from crack wins dot com, and man,
we are getting all set for Championship Sunday. Over here,
(26:25):
Championship Sunday, let's just get into this Bengals Chiefs matchup crack.
It's all about Mahomes, the ankle injury. How effective is
he gonna be? Right now? At bet MGM, the Chiefs
are a one point favorite. We've got a lot of
line movement throughout the week, probably gonna get a lot
more leading up to game time. You've got a prop
bet already, but you're against your own prop guy. I
(26:48):
want to hear this whole story, Crack, what's uh? What's
the story? So yesterday, I guess look pretty good on
the field automatically a couple of different sharp groups, including my, my, my,
my buddy, who's really good at props. He's a winning
prop player. He said, we always should be over two
eighty and a half on Mahomes and on his yards,
over on his attempts, over on completions. I was real
(27:09):
hesitant to do that because listen, Okay, great, I know
it's it's probably a little bit lower than it should
be with a healthy Mahomes. However, one little crack at
this guy's leg, he's done. Even if it comes out
for two series. You know, the yardage prop is dead,
you know, so unless there's some big breakaway touchdowns or something.
(27:31):
But I am not. I'm hesitant to bet over now anyway,
this time of the year, more than any I'll be
looking to bet under on a lot. I'm not gonna
bet under Mahomes. I'm not doing that. But I'm just
not as sure as he is at the over here. Now.
Do I want it to win? Yeah, I wanted to win, absolutely,
but I'm just hesitant to bet at myself. Um, you
(27:53):
can still there's still two eighty one and a half
in the market. Bet MGM had two eighty and a
half just this morning. I think they, I think they still.
I mean, it's it's just something I'm not betting because
I just know that in that team locker room. Just
think about Cincinnati, they're they don't want to hurt the guy,
but they wouldn't mind hurting his like m You know, yeah,
(28:14):
I wonder how often it happens to you crack where
putting the money on the table sometimes changes You're thinking
like this, right, Like uh, if you go in thinking, oh,
Bengals Mahomes is injured, oh and you fork down whatever
is a significant amount to you. There are a lot
of times where you're like, oh, you start seeing the
(28:34):
other way where it's like, but Mahomes might be healthy enough,
the Chiefs might make some place. How often does it
happen to you where you go in like, oh gosh,
I love this bet, and then you fork your money down.
You're like, oh, man, I see all the ways this
could go wrong. Huh. Well, I have been known to
get off things. So if I bet something I've seen
(28:56):
some reasoning or logic the other way, I'll get off
of it. But it's rare because I hate the a
negative EV eleven to ten the other way, giving back
some of the negative EV to the to the sports books. Um,
this particular week, I thought, when and when since he
went to be a favorite. Wow, imagine getting Casey at
home in the playoff spot like this as a home
dog cut, and uh, they were up there. Cincinnati was
(29:17):
up there. You know the two and a half points
at once, and uh, you know, I seen the book
that opens up the lines actually opened this game Kansas
City minus three. It lasted for two minutes, but it
was there. You could have bet Cincinnati plus three. So
literally you could have got both sides plus three lands juice.
So but you could have had that on a playoff game.
(29:37):
That would have been unbelievable. I did not get that
chance to do that. Um, this particular situation is is
now the line flip flop Kansas City's favorite by one,
a solid one everywhere. I even see this game probably
going to one and a half by game time. But um,
you know there's lots of eyeballs on these four teams
(29:59):
right now. The the NFS NFL Conference Championship games there there,
the bookmakers have to get the lines right. They you know,
they only have two games to put up there to
look at. So these bookmakers, you know, that's pretty hard
to get a line wrong for uh, this situation in
the conference championship games. There's no reason why people should
(30:19):
be forcing betting sides here when you have so many
secondary markets, proposition markets, alternate line markets. Uh, there's other
things you can be betting on. You don't have to
bet on the ironed out NFL side. It's interesting to
crack where uh you're leaning Cincinnati here. And I would
actually give you a compliment on this because, uh, man,
(30:42):
the Bengals are a huge public play right now. Like
eight out of ten people are on the Bengals here,
and sharp guys like you you know, sometimes they're like
I gotta be on the sharp side. No matter what
I I don't know how you think about it, Crack,
I think about it. It's not about the public side,
the sharp side. It's about the winnings side. And you've
gotta think for yourself, like sometimes you're along with the public,
(31:04):
sometimes you're against the public. But if you feel stronger
on one side than the other, I really don't get
caught up. And is it the public side is at
the sharp side. So break that down for a sharp crack.
How do you go about um diagnosing a game? And well,
whether you've even entertain what's the public and what's it's
it's a good subject. Most most people, what they'll do
(31:26):
is that when these sports books will talk about that,
they'll say, oh, we have a public money on this side,
well or sharp money on this side, whatever it may be.
They can't get down on that side. You can't get
down on that side of of of a game. And
you know when you can't get down that side at
that number, So no longer should that they even be discussed.
(31:46):
I mean that that number. So whenever even when like
Jason comes on ABN MGM, I want to know, like
this this week in particular, I think this would be
a good segment with him where he'll tell us exactly
what what they need at the number, because I want
to know that. Listen, if he says he needs something
at you know plus two, that they booked a lot
(32:06):
of plus two and now the lines minus one, well
that doesn't mean it's the public side anymore. That doesn't
mean that's just what they needed that number. I want
to know what they need at the current number. That's
what I really want to know. And I haven't even
asked Jason that all season, and I hope I remember
to ask him on Sunday. If not, Brian ask him that,
because I want to know what they needed the current number,
not not what they needed that a number that moved
(32:28):
three points so um, because then then what that what
happens is the listening public said, oh, I gotta be
on the bookmaker, soide, I'll jump on that. Well, maybe
you're jumping on three points worse. The bookmaker will still
win and you'll lose. Yeah, that's a good point. If
we shift over to the NFC matchup San Francisco at Philly,
Philly a two and a half point favorite as we
speak right now on Thursday, and you made a comment
(32:51):
right before we started recording this crack where you're still
trying to find someone who likes san fran and I
feel the same way. It's it's hard to find him.
And look, we all know their credentials. They've got a
strong defense, they've got weapons galore offensively, brock Purty not
being one of them, but they do have a lot
of talent around the quarterback. I just look at this
(33:12):
crack where look if that if that forty Niners running
game is just okay, And that's how it was against Dallas.
Going up against Philly's number one past defense on the
road that's a lot different than facing Dallas at home
is one of the first surface things I think of
when I look at this matchup. Yeah, no, no, and listen,
(33:34):
this game can go either way. Nothing would surprise me.
San Franci beat that could beat them by ten, Philadelphia
cold beat them by ten. Nothing would surprise me in
this game. We all know san France on a roll. Uh.
Philly kind of showed that they aren't the you know,
the team that they were at the beginning of the season.
Towards the end of the season or even the middle.
When Washington beat them at home in this spot, so
(33:56):
anything could happened, like we say on any given Sunday,
especially uh in championship games here we've seen over the years. So, um, listen,
do I think Philly is gonna win the game? Sure,
I really do. I think Philly's gonna win. But that
I bet it with my money? No, I didn't bet it.
I didn't bet it and didn't bet. But do I
think they're gonna win? You? I think they'll win there
at home there, They're in a good spot there and
(34:17):
then and uh, you know, I always talked about how
hard it is to play at the link and uh,
they're they're they're a good first half team. That could
be a bet. I mean, there's so many ways to
to bet this game. Um again, I'll be looking at
secondary markets and proposition markets. I won't be looking at
a side. One thing that you're looking at is Miles Sanders,
the Eagles running back. What are you thinking in terms
(34:39):
of attempts yards? What's your your first breakdown as far
as that goes crack? Yeah, we have um we we
we we have under we have under on on him. Um.
I didn't even bet it yet that much. Sanders under
fourteen and a half attempts under fifty six and a
half yards. Um, I leaned to bull to them, and
(35:00):
I think that's gonna be that. It's gonna be that
type of a game though that uh sanders will um
you know coming under fourteen and a half attempts a
lot of attempts, Jesus, just a lot of attempts for
anyone any given Sunday. But uh so leaning towards that,
and um, I'll have a lot of unders more towards
game time, hoping some of the more mare keen names. Um,
(35:23):
that that that will get be be getting bet over.
I mean, think about it. Do you know anyone that's
betten like a kiddle under? Do you know anyone betting right?
I mean, who's betting under on that? Nobody? So the
bookmakers add five, six, eight ten yards to that number
already it may act and they'll still bet over the public.
So I may even get a better better yardage on him,
(35:46):
and and and and another, you know, all all the
guy all to keep running backs receivers every you may
get the key ones. Because public loves to bet over.
It's fun to bet over. It's so boring to bet
under and not wanting any action, you know, I mean, yeah,
I just we've seen it in these games. It happened
to me last week, Crack and you too. We You
(36:07):
were on borrow the completion over and I was on
the attempts over, and we easily would have gotten there,
but the bills got blown out, the bills forgot to
show up, and the bank is just running the ball
at the end. I don't losing, but well, I'm just
saying that's how that reality. So the point is, though,
(36:29):
how these games play out. Is Philly up in the
fourth quarter, Well, the Miles Sanders thing that that might
not work out is San Francisco trailing in the fourth
quarter what looked to be great kittle under that could
blow up in your face, right Like. It really does
depend on I think the forecast of prop bets. You
(36:50):
really got to start with which side thea like, right Like,
I would start with that and then just use that
as a gauge. I'm not saying that would prevent went
me from betting over under on a prop, but it's
just something to consider instead of just diving into props
and like oh this guy, like, really think about how
you guess the game will play out and who's leading
(37:12):
by how much? Late in that type of thing. Yep, yep, yep, No,
it's it's it's really good good points. And I was
thinking Kid, but I met Kelsey but Kid, Oh yeah,
well Kelsey everyone and a kittle too. But everyone's betting Kelly.
I can't name anyone betting Kelsey on there. Oh yeah,
he's not gonna do good this game. That could be
a really good bet crack. It could, but it could be.
(37:33):
But that I guess it could be if Kansas City's
go ahead in the fourth quarter. Well, and also, I
just I'm curious why, like Tyreek Hill we all know
is not on this team anymore. Belichick did a good
job of bracketing and slowing down Kelsey and Tyreek Hill
at the same time a few years ago. Right, there's
(37:54):
no Tyreek Hill. So if you're lou and and Rumo,
the Bengals defensive coordinator, how do you allow Kelsey to
do anything significant in this game? Mahomes is banged up? Right?
Who are the other receivers that scare you? Is it Juju?
Is it envs? Is it Tony? There's nobody like make
(38:14):
those dudes beat you. Don't let Travis Kelsey, do it sure, sure, sure?
A lot of those guys, uh that that are the
you know, even backups, even the backups. I was reading
you know that this this particular week is a good
week to bet on some of those backups. Bet bet
you know the so um uh it's it's it should
(38:35):
be Listen, I'm saying, bet on them. What I'm trying
to say is it's actually a week that they put
they put yards up, which a lot of to get
any given someday, they don't put the yards up on
the on the backup guys. So this week they'll have
yards on a lot of different people because there's only
two games to bet on, so they want they want
you to bet much action as you can. Bet. Might
be some good good uh unders on those guys too
(38:57):
that are never featured in the market, so usually only
the super Bowl and and this Championship round. So it
should be fun. It should be a really fun weekend
looking forward to these games big time. And you know
it's funny, Brian, You guys don't know this. We filmed
the show the other day and um, when we're having
our Sunday show. For some reason, the entire week I'm
(39:19):
thinking to myself, God, I can't believe we're gonna be
doing our show and the first hour of the game
we're basically gonna miss I'm not even thinking because I'm
so much back East Coast, West Coast, East coast, West Coast.
I wasn't even thinking I'm on the West Coast. I
still got two hours, so I was able to run
around and do some stuff after our show. But I
was like, oh my god, How're we gonna the same
thing this week? Twelve o'clock start and our show is
(39:40):
seven to ten here in Vegas. So I'm happy to
be happy to know that I have two full hours
to get down on San fran Philadelphia stuff. But I'll
have great stuff during the show, like I always do.
I'll get literally when it's like like late breaking news
when it hits the TV. Every week, I get breaking
news or you know, breaking plays for my guys, and
I get him out on on our show, which is fantastic.
(40:02):
It's been a great year, by the way, great year
giving out stuff on that show. I've run so well
on our Countdown the kickoff show. Wow Wow. Cincinnati scoring
first again last week at the end of the game,
gave out all four quarterbacks under one and a half
that went three and one. It's just every week was
has has really been running really well on the show
and I hope to continue that to the last quarter
(40:23):
here of the shows. I love it. Hey be sure
to check out the new looking features in the bed
MGM app. It's fast and easy access to the sports
you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily Lions Boost,
or the cash Out Featured. New users can use the
code countdown for a special offer, just like Crack was saying,
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM
that will be on Sunday with myself, Brian Noe, Bill
(40:46):
Crack and Burger from crack wins dot com and our guy,
Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran who is a die
hard Chiefs fan. I wonder, Crack, how how ticked off?
I really could I controlled Jeff on Sunday and just
be angles Bengals, Bengals, Bengals and see if I can
get Schwartz to turn red. I really could. I could.
This is one skill I have. K he you sens
(41:13):
on the text threat just a little where I'm like, hey, man, Bengals.
I like the Bengals in this one. He's like, oh, oh,
so the Chiefs have no chance? Uh, Brian like, they
have no chance. But I'm not saying that, Jeff. He's
already worked up on the texts. Craig. I could get
him to just blow a gasket on Sunday if you
want me to, you know, just let me know. I
can make that happen. But yeah, it will be Sunday
(41:35):
from ten am until one pm Eastern time, so we'll
get you all set for Championships Sunday. Join us then
on Fox Sports Radio
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
Popular Podcasts
True Crime Tonight
If you eat, sleep, and breathe true crime, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT is serving up your nightly fix. Five nights a week, KT STUDIOS & iHEART RADIO invite listeners to pull up a seat for an unfiltered look at the biggest cases making headlines, celebrity scandals, and the trials everyone is watching. With a mix of expert analysis, hot takes, and listener call-ins, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT goes beyond the headlines to uncover the twists, turns, and unanswered questions that keep us all obsessed—because, at TRUE CRIME TONIGHT, there’s a seat for everyone. Whether breaking down crime scene forensics, scrutinizing serial killers, or debating the most binge-worthy true crime docs, True Crime Tonight is the fresh, fast-paced, and slightly addictive home for true crime lovers.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.