Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you ready to witness football? Fans?

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation, Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Betga, the King of sportsbook.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
We're setting you up with the information you need to
watch your team win.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Let's go. We're here to break it all down. Go,
let's go.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by
bett mg app.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
No, we're live from your tailgame.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Here's Brian No, former Penn State All American Rich Hornberger
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 3 (00:45):
What's going on? Everybody?

Speaker 4 (00:46):
Who is the better QB one that is on the way.
We are count down to kickoff? Back for another season.
This is beautiful.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
We want to.

Speaker 4 (00:58):
Remind you be sure to check out the new looking
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Fast and easy access to.

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The sports you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily
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The cash out feature.

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And new users can use the code countdown for a
special offer. That's code countdown in the bet MGM app.
Props to bet MGM sponsoring us again for another season.
We've got Rich Ornberger, the Penn State All American, Jared
Smith bets oar betting analysts. I'm seeing like house music
fits pumped rich Heornberger. Already, let's get it. We're doing

(01:31):
it boys.

Speaker 5 (01:31):
Another football season upon us.

Speaker 6 (01:34):
We were talking about this, you know, during our meeting
before the show. It feels like that that weight prior
to football is really really long. And then when it
starts showing up on your doorstep, you're again again. You're
just like, oh, yeah, it never left us, did it?
It never left us?

Speaker 3 (01:54):
I'm so excited, guys. I mean, I was trying to.
I was pondering, as in my head.

Speaker 7 (01:58):
So next week is week zero, so that would that
make this week double zero?

Speaker 3 (02:03):
And I know everyone hates the double.

Speaker 7 (02:05):
Zero on the roulette wheel, but I mean it is
Vegas and we are gambling, so I thought it was fitting.

Speaker 3 (02:11):
But this is week double zero, deal with it.

Speaker 5 (02:14):
I like it.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
Are we getting?

Speaker 4 (02:16):
Not to take you completely off track, but are we
getting double zeros in the NFL this year?

Speaker 3 (02:21):
I know we're getting I think zero. No, I don't know.
I don't know if we're it. I know we're getting zeros. Yeah.
The definitely have that.

Speaker 5 (02:28):
Preseason games these are not very good.

Speaker 6 (02:31):
It's it's open revolt from the players and coaches. But
I think the pandemic taught the world a lot of things.
But what the pandemic taught the NFL is the preseason,
especially the games are no longer needed. A lot of
these teams are practicing the week prior to the games
against the teams that they're going to face. During the games,
they get all of the ones, ones reps that they

(02:52):
need to see, protecting their guys, getting their stars, a
couple of reps in some really crucial spots, and that
that's about it. That's about all you want to risk.
And we talk about risk a lot on this show.
You know, this is a show where we're focusing on
football and we're countdown to kickoff show, but we're also
talking betting. We're also talking about putting a little skin

(03:14):
in the game. Well, ultimately, that's what football is. It's
the ultimate bet. We're betting that we're gonna be healthier
than you, we're gonna have a better game plan than you.
We're going to have more people to throw out this
problem than you have. Who would want to waste all
of that risk proposition now, so we're seeing some of
the worst football we've seen in a long time in

(03:35):
the preseason, It's true.

Speaker 7 (03:37):
The one thing that's tough too is I just think overall,
the starters don't play enough to even make a difference
most nights in terms of the line and in terms
of where the market like we hear, hey, the starters
are gonna play. Oh wow, and then all of a
sudden we see the number move. But then the starters

(03:57):
play one series and then it's like, Okay, well that
didn't really move the needle too much. I think betting
preseason football is probably the least favorite of my of
my football wagering tactics. Like I'll maybe I think so
far I've made two bets the whole preseason, and I
might make one more or two more max And then really.

Speaker 3 (04:19):
The the real kit and kaboodles next week.

Speaker 7 (04:23):
Next week, when we get some real college games that
actually matter, that's when I'll really start to dive into
analyzing things that are actually happening.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
But right now, I mean, it's just it is a
total crap.

Speaker 7 (04:33):
Shit in the second half of these NFL preseason games
is really really tough.

Speaker 4 (04:38):
Yeah, you could get some value on the first half,
I feel like, but man, it's a recipe to just
feel like an idiot if you lose a preseason bet,
you know what I mean.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
You lose a bet and you're like, well, I'm twoing
on so far in the preseason, how about that?

Speaker 5 (04:53):
Well that's very.

Speaker 6 (04:54):
Good for you know, there's a lot of people who
can say that.

Speaker 4 (04:57):
I'll give you a brief preseason store action minimum. So
I had some cash on the in game under last
week in the Carolina Jets game.

Speaker 3 (05:07):
You'd love this as a Jets guy. Jared oh Man.

Speaker 4 (05:10):
So it's twenty six and a half in game I
took under, Jets are leading twenty to nothing, there are
under two minutes to go, they're inside the Panthers five
yard line. This would be a great time for a
field goal. Under two minutes to go. They're up twenty
to nothing. They're like, let's go for it. Let's see
what the number three quarterback can do in a fourth

(05:31):
and goal situation from the five or whatever it was.
By some time, guy is wide open, touchdown, extra point.

Speaker 3 (05:40):
I lose definitely. Yeah, well, and I'm like, what was
I even betting on that?

Speaker 6 (05:45):
But because you're logical, because your brain is logical, because
you're like, yeah, under normal circumstances, this bet makes perfect
sense because this is this is what you do, right,
this is how this works. But in the preseason, like
you just said, you.

Speaker 8 (06:00):
Just rip up the old head coaching playbook and rules
and regulations that you say, we have an opportunity in
a live game situation to see how this group of
players is going to react in the low red zone.

Speaker 6 (06:14):
And we're going to run our favorite low red zone
play that didn't work at practice or did work at
practice against a live defense, and we're gonna see if
we can sneak one in there. And so, like you know,
the frustration for all the betters out there who probably
took a bath right.

Speaker 5 (06:30):
There next with next to you.

Speaker 6 (06:32):
I mean, that's the general consensus is why do I
even bet on the preseason? What am I doing with
my The thing.

Speaker 7 (06:38):
I've noticed too now that we social media is so
prevalent not only in our society, but it's a big
gambling tool as well. Call it community if you want, gambling, Twitter,
gambling X, whatever you want to call it. But no
other sport besides maybe an NBA playoff game, brings the
gambling community more together on social media than football a

(07:02):
college football Saturday or an NFL Sunday or a primetime game,
and even the preseason when it's a big moment, like
even be for example, Bjeon Robinson's first run last night,
you would have made it like he was in he
ran into the Hall of Fame last night, Like just
his first run, which was like eleven yards, he made
one nice cut in the hole and you know the

(07:23):
Bengals guy overran the play.

Speaker 3 (07:25):
I mean, it was a nice run, but it wasn't
like you know, the it would be.

Speaker 7 (07:28):
It would have been in the Hall of very good runs,
not the Hall of Fame runs. But the way that
the community on social media reacted to that last night,
Jon Robinson Rookie of the Year, a thousand yard season,
like it was one run in the preseason his first
run and people went bananas.

Speaker 3 (07:44):
Only the NFL can move the needle like that on
social media. Only.

Speaker 4 (07:48):
Well, we have real football right around the corner, which
is probably a better betting opportunity.

Speaker 3 (07:54):
More times than not, I.

Speaker 4 (07:55):
Would say, We're brought to you by a progressive insurance
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Progressive dot com. So we got a couple of qb ones.
We have Sam Howell, Washington Commander's QB one. We've got

(08:16):
Anthony Richardson Colt's QB one. That's the latest this week.
And I've got a simple question for you guys. Who's
gonna do better in twenty twenty three. I think it's
going to be Sam Howell. I know that sounds crazy.
It's a fifth round pick compared to a fourth overall pick.
But Sam Howell is not a rookie. That helps Sam

(08:40):
Howell through eleven hundred and seventeen passes in college compared
to Anthony Richardson throwing three ninety three.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
So Anthony Richardson.

Speaker 4 (08:51):
Doesn't have as much experience as Sam Howell does. And
I like the weapons around Sam Howel better with Washington,
Terry McClure and John Dodson, so forth and so on.
I think Sam Howell is gonna do better than Anthony Richardson,
who I don't know what the culture doing. By the way,
he looked like a fish out of water last week
against the Bills. A couple of days later, they're like

(09:12):
he's QB one for the season. I would get the
timing of that. But what do you guys think Howell v.
Richardson in twenty twenty three, who does better individually?

Speaker 6 (09:22):
Well, it's very possible that Howell gets off to a
hotter start because of comfort level. You know, he's not
a rookie. That does matter, and even though he barely played,
it does not matter when you're talking about a guy
just getting used to being around his teammates and knowing
the names of all the head coaches or excuse me,

(09:45):
all the coaches on staph Like I bet you if
you asked Anthony Richardson to name by name name all
the coaches on his staff, he'd probably struggle to get
beyond four. That's what I mean, is your comfort level?
Like he probably can't even name all his teammates, like
he just got there, So at first I could see

(10:07):
your point. However, talent wins Man and Anthony Richardson in
terms of being an athlete and a dual threat quarterback,
you're looking at a person who can be like the
vitamin C to an offense. When things are going poorly
For Anthony Richardson, he always has that one ejector seat

(10:29):
move where he can get outside the pocket and use
that four to four speed in that big body to
make special things happen. There's that aspect to his game
that puts the defense on tilt that very few human
beings on the planet, let alone the NFL can actually accomplish. Now,
obviously he's going to try to operate inside the offense,

(10:51):
and that's what Shane Stike in head coach, offensive minded
head coach.

Speaker 5 (10:54):
Is going to be looking for him to do.

Speaker 6 (10:56):
But I think when it all shakes out, assuming health,
I think Anthony Richardson's gonna have this stronger year because
of that one aspect of his game that will get
him out of trouble. It could get him into trouble
at times too, but for the most part it we'll
get him out of trouble, just like it did at Florida.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
Yeah, the tail of tape.

Speaker 7 (11:13):
I think if you go group by group, I think
Washington's got the better receiver group. I don't even think
that's in doubt. Frankly, I know Pittman Junior is a star,
But you're talking about dots and Samuel and McLaurin. I mean,
I think Dotson and McLaurin have a chance to both
be perennial Pro bowlers and Curtis Samuel I don't think
it's a slouch either. And again I do like the

(11:34):
Indianapolis skill group. But the first thing that Anthony Richardson
has to deal with during his time as the you know,
the the ring leader, the pit boss kind of on
the field is the Jonathan Taylor situation.

Speaker 3 (11:45):
And that's that's a distraction.

Speaker 7 (11:48):
It's a distraction from any quarterback that's trying to grow
and evolve and learn because right now he's got Zack
Moss in the backfield and in his mind he's thinking
to himself, can Jonathan Taylor do this?

Speaker 3 (12:01):
Can he run this protection? Can he run this scheme?

Speaker 7 (12:03):
I mean, so, it's just it's a different vibe right
out of the gate when you don't have your best
offensive player who is a quarterback's best friend, who is
an All Pro MVP caliber type of running back not
back there. So that situation I think needs to be settled.
I think the offensive lines neither of them really stand
out to me. Washington's is pretty poor, so we'll give

(12:25):
Indy the slight edge up front.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
I think it's blatantly obvious.

Speaker 7 (12:30):
We'll give Indy the coaching edge in terms of an
offensive minded head coach and a guy that I think
can get the most out of a quarterback. Year one,
I don't put Ron Rivera, and as much as I
love Eric the enemy, that's an adjustment period for Eric
going from a Kansas City situation where you basically had
two offensive coordinators as your head coach, Andy Reid and
as your quarterback Patrick Mahomes. So I think the challenges

(12:53):
early on are a little bit more difficult for Anthony Richardson.
But I think over time I agree rich I think
he has the better chance for the upside, But early
on in the season, I think Sam Howell could could
certainly do well.

Speaker 4 (13:07):
Yeah, I mean, hey, you want to bet on the
upside in twenty twenty eight for Anthony Richardson, be my guess.

Speaker 3 (13:14):
Three more I weeks maybe next season or down the road.

Speaker 4 (13:18):
This day, I'm so sick of this Anthony Richardson malarkey.
It's malarkey, That's what it is. It's maloney. In twenty
twenty three, listen, think of it this way. Who's a
quarterback who was average production wise, which Anthony Richardson was
in college and then hit the ground running their rookie
season in the NFL. Who's the guy. We've got some

(13:39):
special seasons from quarterbacks in their rookie years who were
special in college, who most of them put up big numbers.
You got Anthony Richardson with what seventeen touchdowns, nine picks,
He's got thirteen starts in his college career under four
hundred passes. And that's the guy who's gonna I'm not
saying be mahome his first year, but he's gonna get

(14:01):
He's gonna be like, whoa wow from the get go.

Speaker 3 (14:06):
I just don't see it.

Speaker 4 (14:07):
It's been potential to this point over production that's got
him where he is, and more power to him.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
That's great.

Speaker 4 (14:14):
He's a fourth overall pick, but it's all based on potential.
Being named QB one is based on potential. It hasn't
been based on anything that he's done in training camp
or the preseason game against the Bills. He couldn't complete
hitch routes. He couldn't complete hitch routes. He had a
wide open tight end missed him by a lot. He
had a wide open wide receiver. Offensive PI pushed off

(14:37):
over through Pittman junior. And this is the guy who's
just gonna crush it this season.

Speaker 3 (14:42):
It's it's a hoop dream. It's not gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (14:45):
And yeah, he's got a lot of ability, but at
some point it's gotta be realized. And it's not gonna
be realized in year one outside of throwing a bunch
of short stuff and screen passes and throws behind the
line of scrimmage. That's what we're gonna see more time
than not. And I'm not telling you that Sam Howell
is gonna crush it this season. Oh but you're talking

(15:05):
about an all in situation right here. This is it
like it was gonna do better statistically. Here's a good comparison.
Look at Josh Allen of the Bills. He didn't crush
it at Wyoming, and he didn't crush it his rookie
season either. He had ten touchdowns twelve interceptions. I think
we're in store for something closer to that from Anthony
Richardson than anything that's gonna give you like a wow.

(15:29):
This dude is a baller already. I don't see it
at all in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 6 (15:33):
I just don't know how you look at Sam Howell
and you feel like, oh no, no, no, Like compare
to Anthony Richardson, Like it's a no brainer. Like if
we were comparing I don't know, Richardson to Bryce Young,
I think I would agree with you. I think it's
a it's a possibility that Bryce Young has a much
better season than Richardson, again assuming health. But like Sam

(15:56):
Howe played, he's got a lot to learn at this
level too, and he has a year under his belt.
I understand that. But he played in basically an RPO
only scheme in college.

Speaker 3 (16:07):
Yep.

Speaker 6 (16:08):
You know this is a guy who never, I mean
never blew my doors off as a college prospect. I
was never like drooling over the prospect of a team
getting Sam Howell and him lighting the league up. That's
the reason why he sat behind relatively poor NFL quarterbacks
last year. Also, it's just one of those things where
the ceiling for Sam Howell is much lower. We may

(16:31):
see him reach that by game four, Game five of
this NFL season is second and really start to settle
into the fact that, Okay, yeah, he's supported by a cast,
and maybe the offensive line plays up, and maybe it's
looking better than we all expected. Or outside of Brian,
but Anthony Richardson. I mean, yes, you're right. He didn't

(16:52):
knock me out either at Florida. But he made some
plays now during his time at Florida where I was like, WHOA,
that's special. That's like one in a million type of play.
That's a one that's that's uh, you know, maybe only
one guy in college football this year can make a
play that looks like that because of his athleticism, because

(17:13):
of his size, because of his speed, because of his agility.
Sam Howell never did that for me. So I'm not
saying it's gonna be on a game in game out basis.
I'm not even gonna say like I said, actually, I'm
not saying it's gonna happen immediately with Anthony Richardson. But
I think the tail of the tape, come the end
of the twenty twenty three season, we're going to have
a compilation of moments like that during Anthony Richardson's rookie year,

(17:37):
and we're gonna say, wow, you know, ultimately he had
a nice rookie year where we may look at Sam
Howe and be like, yeah, you know, the commanders are
still in.

Speaker 5 (17:46):
That Who's next?

Speaker 6 (17:48):
On the wheel of quarterbacks that we're gonna throw into
this this meat grinder.

Speaker 7 (17:52):
Here, And that's that's exactly the right mind frame I
think for this debate. It's not that Sam Howe might
have a better year this year, which is very well happened.
I wouldn't be surprised at that at all. If his
QBR and his are talking about all that stuff. Yeah, no,
And I think that's a fair that's a fair question
to ask. But you're you're I think, who would you

(18:14):
rather have for the next five years as your quarterback.

Speaker 3 (18:16):
It's a different question.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
We started talking about who's the better quarterback, You're onto
who's the better running back?

Speaker 7 (18:21):
Like if you want to back, I think, but that's
but but but Brian, That's the whole position. The quarterback
position is not necessarily a what can you do for
me this year, because let's be honest, neither of these
teams have Super Bowl aspirations this year. The quarterback position.
Part of the quarterback position is the future. Are you

(18:43):
the quarterback of the future or is your team going
to have to continue to search for it like Moses
wandering in the desert for forty years. That is how
a lot of teams, including my Jets, have been at
the quarterback position for a long time, and I think Washington,
despite Sam Owl's grasp of the system, is still searching

(19:04):
for that quarterback long term, where Indianapolis is not. They
are willing to take the lumps with Richardson this year
and exist through a poor season, which, let's be honest,
I agree with your statement. I think statistically speaking, Howell
is going to have a better year than Richardson, But
that doesn't mean that I'd want Howell over Richardson even

(19:24):
this year, because I think a good franchise knows. Ask
the Colts of Peyton Manning, ask the Jags and Trevor Lawrence, and.

Speaker 3 (19:32):
That was a brutal situation year one.

Speaker 7 (19:34):
You get into the right situation with the right team,
you're willing to go through one poor rookie season for
the fruits of later down the line. So while the question,
I agree, Howell's probably better this year, to me, that
doesn't matter. I would still rather take my crack at
Richardson and go through a bad year and take my

(19:54):
lumps because maybe next year will be infinitely and exponentially better.

Speaker 4 (19:59):
I'm gonna sucker you both into bets and I am
gonna make out like a bandit on this one.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
That's really what We're not even to gauge yet you
already making bets when it comes down.

Speaker 4 (20:10):
Hey, BETMGM has all the action for every sports fan,
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(20:31):
com and use code countdown. That's code countdown in the
betmgm app. We are off and running. We got rich
Ornberger trunk on some, Anthony richardson lovet. We got Jared
Smith trunk on sa Anthony richards Did you see the highlight?

Speaker 5 (20:44):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (20:44):
I saw miss nine hitch routes after that, but whatever,
whatever we're talking.

Speaker 6 (20:47):
About, sixty yards brought that video is wild, by the.

Speaker 4 (20:52):
Way, it was wild. And then I saw miss nine
out routes right after that.

Speaker 3 (20:55):
But what what what a throw to one one? Wow?
What a throw? All right?

Speaker 4 (21:00):
Coming up next the futures market, we start big when
it comes to the futures market. There might not be
one thing bigger when it comes to this sport that's
on the way. It is count down to Kickoff, back
for another season right here on Fox Sports Radio, presented
by BETMGM.

Speaker 2 (21:18):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.

Speaker 4 (21:30):
Oh, it is countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM
right here on Fox Sports Radio. At the end of
your first year, Discover credit cards automatically double all the
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Seriously see terms and check it out for yourself at
Discover dot com slash match. Okay, if we're looking at
the national championship odds here in college football, according to BETMGM,

(21:55):
Georgia is lapping the field right now there at plus
shoot t twenty five's basically two to one, a little
better than that Alabama next in line at six to one.
Think about that, Just let that think in for a second,
where basically the odds are saying Georgia has three times
as good of a shot to win a national championship

(22:17):
than Alabama and everybody else, their odds are that much
shorter than everybody else's next in line. I won't give
you the whole list, but Ohio State seven to one,
Michigan eight to one, LSU is twelve to one, then
USC is next in line at fourteen to one. It

(22:38):
is It's remarkable what Kirby Smart has done at Georgia,
obviously the last two national championships, but just to see
the current odds, I don't know about you, guys, but
it is shock value to me. I'm not disagreeing with
the odds, but just to see Georgia plus two twenty
five in Alabama plus six hundred, it's like, whoa two
to one versus six to one. That's wild to me.

Speaker 6 (23:00):
It's a big I mean, it's a big disparity. I
don't know, man, Like I feel like we do this
a lot in sports, and when there's a team that
is emerging as a dynasty, like a Kansas City Chiefs,
like a Georgia Bulldogs in football, where it feels like

(23:20):
every single year in the preseason, on paper, they look great,
and then many of those seasons following those preseasons, they
look great.

Speaker 5 (23:30):
You kind of get lulled into a little bit.

Speaker 6 (23:32):
Of a false sense of security, like, well, the outcomes
are going to be the same every year. It's gonna
be Georgia in the final game. It's gonna be Kansas
City in the final game. Yeah, until they're not, you know,
because things happen. It's football. It's a war of attrition.
Star players get injured, Coaches make bad decisions in end
of game situations. You have moments that make up a season.

(23:53):
And so when you're staking your claim and you're staking
it on a bet where you're going to have to
put a significant chunk of change down now to even
get any value on the Bulldogs, I just to me,
I don't like it.

Speaker 5 (24:08):
I just don't see the value.

Speaker 6 (24:10):
I don't I don't even understand why lines get this crazy,
because it's just it's not worth anything to me right now.

Speaker 7 (24:18):
Yeah, I think upside is the word I would use,
so for perspective. Last year, Alabama was the favorite at
basically two to one right starting the season and Georgia
was plus three fifteen.

Speaker 3 (24:29):
So both of those teams were really tight on the
odds board.

Speaker 7 (24:33):
And what plus two hundred means is basically a team
has a thirty three percent chance in the eyes of
the odds makers to win that to win that whatever
probability event. So basically they're telling you, in one out
of three hypothetical seasons, this year, Georgia's already the national champion,
we might as well not even play the season. And

(24:55):
for Alabama six to one, it's basically saying fourteen percent.
That's kind of what the eye that's mean. And we're
gonna talk about these odds a lot this year. We're
gonna throw out big odds. That year, we're gonna throw,
you know, minus two hundred odds at you. And that's
the that's the flip side of it, right If plus
two hundred is saying thirty percent, thirty three percent, and
then minus two hundred is the inverse sixty six point
sixty sixty sixty six six seven percent.

Speaker 3 (25:16):
So keeps on the bosom. So I heard Slayer, keep
those odds in.

Speaker 7 (25:25):
Mind as we go through the season, because we will
call back to them. And again, this is week double
zero of a show that is going to stretch through
the entire college football season and into the NFL playoffs.
The journey that the odds take throughout the season, frankly
is one of the most fascinating case studies in all

(25:46):
of sports.

Speaker 3 (25:47):
I agree with Rich's sentiment one hundred percent.

Speaker 7 (25:49):
If you want to bet, if you think Georgia is
gonna win the national title, if you think they are
that good and they're gonna make it a three peat
and they are the dynasty that everyone is thinking of,
you don't need to bet them now. You are going
to be able to get a similar number many weeks
into the season, and you will be able to collect
weeks of information like a sponge and see how this

(26:11):
new quarterback situation is gonna shake down, and see how
Oh by the way, Monkin the offensive coordinator, he's in
Baltimore now.

Speaker 3 (26:18):
So there's a lot of changes with Georgia this year.

Speaker 7 (26:20):
A lot of changes with Alabama too, new offensive coordinator,
new defensive coordinator, new quarterback, whole lot.

Speaker 3 (26:25):
Of changes there.

Speaker 7 (26:26):
So, to me, the top of the odds board in
college football it's not gonna move that dramatically over the
first few weeks, Watch the games, gather some opinions, and
then you can make a wager on those top tier teams.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
You know what, I'm on no island today, Oh no, I'm.

Speaker 3 (26:45):
Gonna he wants to bet Georgia.

Speaker 4 (26:46):
Now, I'm gonna agree with you guys at some point.
But I'm just looking at George's schedule. I don't know
where the odds get longer than where they are right now.
Right their non conference schedule is a cake walk.

Speaker 3 (26:59):
There.

Speaker 4 (27:00):
SEC schedule is completely manageable. So I don't see them
losing a regular season game, maybe the SEC title game. Right,
that's your hope if you're hoping to get Georgia at
a better number, if you're like plus two to twenty five,
it's gotta be at least three to one for me
to jump on the dogs.

Speaker 3 (27:20):
Fine, I get that. I just don't know that we're
gonna get there.

Speaker 4 (27:24):
I don't see them losing in the regular season.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
That's what three with that. But yeah, can still absorb
the first few weeks. It's not.

Speaker 7 (27:30):
But my point is it's not gonna move down where
you're gonna miss the number after the first few weeks.

Speaker 3 (27:35):
Either.

Speaker 7 (27:35):
It's probably gonna stay relatively stationary. It doesn't have much
higher to go.

Speaker 4 (27:40):
Okay, this is the one time coming up around the
corner I'm wildly inconsistent, and it actually feels good. I'm
actually totally fine with it. But I'm actually totally fine
with Isaac Klowen CRAWLN I need some.

Speaker 3 (27:53):
I low with my sports world here in the morning.
What's going on?

Speaker 9 (27:57):
I low Oh, We've got it all for you, fellas.
Good more go to you, and we start with Major
League Baseball on Friday night, where the Tampa Bay Raised
defe died the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim in ten innings,
nine to six, despite the Angels turning their first triple
play in twenty six years and Shohi O'tani hitting a

(28:18):
Grand Slam home run his forty third of the season.
Typical Angels anyway. The Miami Marlins hit five home runs
and an eleven to three victory over the Dodgers in
Los Angeles, breaking the dodgers eleven game winning streak. Padres
over the Arizona Diamondbacks four, and I think San Diego
scored four in the eighth, including a two run home
run by Fernando Tatis Junior, his twentieth of the season.

(28:39):
NFL preseason on Friday Night, the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta
Falcons played to a thirteen to thirteen tie as Young
Way coup of Atlanta hit the game tying field goal
from forty five yards out with two seconds left in
the fourth quarter. Falcons quarterback Desmond Ritter seven of nine
for eighty yards, did have a pass intercepted, but it
was off a deflected pass. The New York Giants over

(29:01):
the Carolina Panthers twenty one to nineteen. Bryce Young completed
three of six for thirty five yards. Daniel Jones of
the Giants eight out of nine for sixty nine yards
and a touchdown. Finally, a bizarre story fellas k XAN
television out of Austin, Texas, reports that attorneys for Tampa
Bay Buccketeers quarterback Baker Mayfield and his wife filed a

(29:23):
court petition to request information about the potential misappropriation of
how twelve million dollars of their money was invested by
an Austin investment firm.

Speaker 10 (29:36):
That's a lot of insurance commercials.

Speaker 9 (29:37):
The petition reads, in part, and I quote petitioners simply
do not know if their money has been properly and
competently invested, has been stolen or otherwise misappropriated, or something
in between. Unquote yikes, back to you.

Speaker 3 (29:56):
Thank you.

Speaker 4 (29:57):
I low it is Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bett
and g Here on Fox Sports Radio. Football Season is here.
I just love saying that, yeah, and that is the
perfect time to kick off your excitement for all your
favorite showdowns from live betting the player props. Bet MGM
has a variety of betting options at your finger tips.

(30:17):
New users can use the code countdown in the betmgm
app or at betemgm dot com and receive betmgm's first
bet offer that's up to one thousand dollars back in
bonus bets. That's code countdown. Okay, So I know I'm
being wildly inconsistent here, but I'm okay with it. I
take it back in the hot SubTime machine to Tony Dungee,

(30:38):
remember the the Indianapolis Colts head coach. He was with
Tampa first, but in Indianapolis. I remember him saying, guys,
we're not fighting in training camp.

Speaker 3 (30:47):
It's stupid. We're not gonna fight in the games.

Speaker 4 (30:50):
We're just gonna get penalties and you know, fifteen yards
marked off against us. It's stupid, serves no purpose. We're
not doing it. I was totally fine with that. I
like that approach. But then we have Dion Sanders. This week,
Coach Prime at Colorado with a completely different message.

Speaker 3 (31:08):
It's in practice.

Speaker 4 (31:09):
There's a goal line situation, a little pushing, little shoving,
little skirmish breaks out. Not everybody gets involved. Coach Prime
has an issue with this. Check out this audio courtesy
of Coach Prime's IG.

Speaker 3 (31:22):
I see two of y'all walk it off over there,
and you gotta teammate.

Speaker 1 (31:25):
Fight nowhere.

Speaker 5 (31:32):
Fight, we all fight. You understand that. I don't want
to see y'all walk it off.

Speaker 3 (31:36):
Put somebody's fight. I love that too. Could not be
more different.

Speaker 4 (31:43):
But you talk about establishing a new culture, a new
mindset at Coach Prime's new program in Colorado. I'm totally
fine with that. It doesn't mean they're gonna fight in
games and get penalties galore, but that mindset of one fights,
we all fight. I'm totally behind it, even though it's
the exact opposite of an approach I liked with Tony Dungeeyeh,

(32:06):
Are you okay with me being wildly consistent like this?

Speaker 6 (32:09):
Yeah, I'm fine with it because we all are. It's
part of being humans. It's part of being a human being.
And I've had coaches who have been against it, and
I've had coaches who have been for it, and I've
liked both of their styles as long as as it
was authentic. Tony Dungee is a calm man in a
chaotic game, so that thought process matches his process perfectly.

Speaker 5 (32:35):
It's authentic.

Speaker 6 (32:36):
He's coaching to his personality. You know who I hate
fake tough guys. Deon Sanders is a real tough guy.
Deon Sanders is a bad man. Deon Sanders should coach
like an angry dog, snarling teeth showing foam dripping from
his chin, because that's who he is. That's what his

(32:56):
game was all about. He was angry. He was a
trash to Tony Dungee wasn't. If it weren't for football,
we'd think he's a pacifist. But the man's a general.
He's a surance salesman.

Speaker 5 (33:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (33:09):
You know, I love the fact that both those examples
are so polar opposite of each other and have been
successful at either the college or the NFL level. Because
there's a lot of different ways to peel this orange.
You don't have to do it the same way. You
don't have to be the same type of coach in
every situation, and you, Brian and I and Jared and
any other player or any other fan of the game

(33:31):
can respect two completely opposite coaching styles and still understand
that there's value.

Speaker 7 (33:36):
There absolutely a couple of things. First of all, I
think it's a little different too. And you have a
college team and an NFL team, right, And I don't
think Tony coaching in college, but during his NFL D
is when you're in the NFL, these guys are supposed
to know and understand how to do everything, and you're
just trying to put them in the right place and
get your scheme in place and then go execute. In college,

(33:59):
it's a little bit more of a life lesson type
coaching experience, and I think coach Prime is trying to
get that the most out of his team while injecting
his personality. I'll be honest, though, they better be ready
to go really quick because a their win totals three
and a half this year, so the odds makers already

(34:20):
think it's going to be a rough year for the Buffs.

Speaker 3 (34:22):
But those first five.

Speaker 7 (34:24):
Games, who at TCU, the defending team that was in
the National Championship Game last year and had an unbelievable season.

Speaker 3 (34:31):
I know they lost a lot. Then they played Nebraska.

Speaker 7 (34:34):
That's a big rivalry last I checked, and I know
it's not a conference rival anymore.

Speaker 3 (34:37):
It might be again soon. Who knows.

Speaker 7 (34:39):
Colorado State, Yeah, that's a pretty big rivalry too in state.
Then you go to Oregon and you play USC. Wow,
I mean you are staring zero to five right down
the barrel. And if you are oh and five in
your first year and your coach prime, and you got
all these all these guys coming in and all this
attention on you, it could get tough really quick. So

(35:01):
you gotta look look at yourself in the mirror and
look at the guy in front of you that you're
practicing next to, and you better be you better be
buttoned up because those first five weeks of the season
ain't gonna be easy with the Buffaloes.

Speaker 4 (35:13):
All right, we've got rich Ornberger, Penn stayed all American.
Let me check real fast. I think he's uh, he's uh, yep,
he's wearing a tight black T.

Speaker 5 (35:21):
Shirt right there.

Speaker 3 (35:22):
That's the way to kick off. I don't look at that.

Speaker 4 (35:25):
Yes, yeah, we're not going loose fitting, you know, button down.
We're going tat tight black t shirt.

Speaker 5 (35:32):
You know we got it's navy blue, but.

Speaker 3 (35:35):
That's fair.

Speaker 7 (35:38):
It's a shaded that that's his summer shade. It's a
summer shade.

Speaker 3 (35:43):
That's his vacation. It's midnight blue.

Speaker 4 (35:47):
So we've got Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian
No coming up next in gambling, you gotta dance with.

Speaker 3 (35:54):
The devil a little bit.

Speaker 4 (35:56):
We've got some advice of how to smartly do a
dosey dough with Lucifer. Okay, it's on the way. It's
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by
bet MGM.

Speaker 3 (36:14):
Let's dive right in, right on into this here, check
this out.

Speaker 1 (36:20):
Harlay letter.

Speaker 4 (36:22):
Goodness, I'm rusty. I don't know how to dive into anything.
Our Harlay platter is prody you by BETMGM. I looked
like Anthony Richardson. But that one read I did, Wow,
what a read I did earlier? Bro read from earlier.
This off doesn't even matter. Good luck, good luck. You

(36:44):
might go off for one throw and then twenty others.
That suck, but whatever, h our parlay platter is brought
to you by bet MGM. Earned a fifty dollars bonus
by signing into BEDMGM and clicking on refer a friend
to invite a friend, and just a few simple steps,
both you and your friend will receive a fifty dollars
bonus bet MGM, The King of sportsbooks, the King of parlays. Okay,

(37:06):
so little parlay platter advice, we'll throw it to you.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
Jared Smith.

Speaker 4 (37:11):
Huh do you have any award winning advice when it
comes to parlays. Yes, we can add some seasoning, but
you have the bulk of the gumbo over here.

Speaker 7 (37:21):
I'm just kidding, guys. I think parlays are very useful.
I think they are the junk food cheat day of
your gambling profile.

Speaker 3 (37:31):
And for someone who is on a.

Speaker 7 (37:33):
Strict intermittent fasting diet, cheat days are very important.

Speaker 3 (37:36):
I have them and they're amazing.

Speaker 7 (37:38):
So I was just looking through my record last year
with the parlays I gave out on the show, and
this is why we only do them in moderation people.
I went one in fourteen. I won one parlay last
year in the fifteen weeks.

Speaker 4 (37:50):
That's because your minimum odds were like plus correct thirty
three thousand correct.

Speaker 7 (37:54):
I mean, yeah, most of the bets are twenty thirty
forty to one. The only one that I won was
actually a basically flat even odds bet, which was conference
Championship weekend. And I think the basic rules are this
one never parlay is something that you wouldn't feel comfortable

(38:15):
betting individually. So for example, I'm going to be and
we're gonna give out a parlay every week on the show.
It's gonna be fun. We're gonna have a blast with it.
They're gonna be long shot odds. They're gonna be underdog picks.
We're gonna try to, you know, win one. The goal
is to win one big one the whole season. That's
really my goal. Every week you make parlays, you combine

(38:37):
bets together, but before you press submit on the bet,
make sure you look at each leg and say, what
I make this bet individually? Is this a good wager
to make outside of the structure of the parlay. If
you are just throwing things in a parlay because you
want those odds to be long and you want that
ticket to look like a CBS receipt.

Speaker 3 (38:57):
You are doing it wrong.

Speaker 7 (38:59):
Usually I strategize for every week three to four legs
underdog money lines, and I we try to take a
big score because you're only gonna hit one or two
every season, you want to take advantage of those opportunities.

Speaker 5 (39:12):
All right.

Speaker 6 (39:12):
The only thing I'll sprinkle in, because I've played some parlays,
is be ambitious, you know, don't be tight with these
because they're for fun and also from a timeframe standpoint.
Understand yourself. If you're somebody who can wait overnight over
two nights, yes, with a with a big win on
a big parlay, yeah, go for it.

Speaker 5 (39:34):
Like but if you're gonna lose sleep over it, don't
do that. Don't do that.

Speaker 6 (39:38):
Make sure it's the same day parlay like an NFL Sunday.
Don't wait for the Monday to hit if it's gonna
ruin your weekend worth of sleep. That's the only advice
I'll give you.

Speaker 4 (39:48):
I think parlays are like drinking. I would advise, don't
get bombed. Be more of a social drinker. That's in
terms of your bank roll, how much you're betting, and
how many legs you have, like how wild the odds are.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
That's what I would say.

Speaker 4 (40:01):
Coming up next, the futures market is really interesting when
it comes to conferences and.

Speaker 9 (40:06):
Divisions in Major League Baseball. Friday night at the Tampa
Bay Raised defeated the Angels in Anaheim in ten innings,
nine to six. Despite the Angels turning their first triple
play in twenty six years, and despite sho Hey O'tani
hitting a Grand Slam home run his forty third home

(40:28):
un of the season, Angels gonna Angel, I guess. The
Miami Marlins had five home runs and an eleven to
three win over the Dodgers in LA, breaking the Dodgers
eleven game winning streak. The San Diego Padres a four
to nothing win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres scored
four in the eighth, including a two run home run
by Fernando Tatis Junior, his twentieth of the season. ATFL

(40:49):
preseason on Friday Night, at the Cincinnati Bengals and the
Atlanta Falcons played to a thirteen to thirteen tie. Giants
over the Panthers twenty one to nineteen. Carolina rookie quarter
of Bryce Young completed three of six passes for thirty
five yards. On the evening, I'm Isaac lahncron.

Speaker 2 (41:09):
Are you ready to witnesses football fans, Welcome to the
biggest tailgate party in the nation. Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by.

Speaker 1 (41:23):
Bett MGA, the gig of sportsbook.

Speaker 2 (41:27):
We're setting you up with the information you need to
watch your team win.

Speaker 5 (41:31):
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (41:33):
We're here to break it all downs, go, Let's go.

Speaker 2 (41:36):
Bett MGA. No, we're lyve from your tailgame. Here's Brian No,
former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger and FSR betting
analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 4 (41:52):
Oh baby, We've got some juicy futures lines for you.
The futures market is it's just oozing with goodness that
is on the way. Betmgm has all the action for
every sports fan, whether you love to wager on game
winning touchdowns, home runs, buzzer beaters, or overtime goals. And
there's never been a better time to sign up for

(42:13):
betmgm's first vet offer that's up to one thousand dollars
back in bonus bets. Just download the benmgm app today
or visit betmgm dot com and use code countdown. That's
code countdown in the bet mgm app. I'll tell you
what fellas. We'll get to the college conference futures bets,
which are pretty interesting in a few minutes. But something

(42:36):
I caught my eye last night. This sounds like a
total you know, hey, I was I was showering and
I thought i'd use Pert Man.

Speaker 3 (42:45):
Pert is amazing.

Speaker 7 (42:45):
You know.

Speaker 3 (42:45):
It sounds like an endorsement, but it's not.

Speaker 4 (42:47):
I was literally just thumbing around the betmgm app last night.
And I don't know if you guys are gonna like
this or not, but you go division by division in
the NFL, and if you like a little bit of
risk in your life, I've they have these things called
straight forecasts where you're looking at who's going to finish first,
who's going to finish second in a respective division, and

(43:09):
they give you all these different odds and all these
potential outcomes. I was looking at the NFC North, So
if you went with the Lions to finish in first
and the Vikings to finish in second, that's plus four hundred,
it's four to one odds, and then it just goes
so forth and so on. Yeah, like I'm looking at
anything with the Packers in first and second I'm like, eliminated, eliminated, elimited.

Speaker 3 (43:30):
I don't want that, no part of it. But how
about that?

Speaker 4 (43:36):
Would you guys be so inclined depending on the division
and depending on how strongly you felt about it, knowing
that it could go haywire in any which way a
couple of injuries, a team that's expected to do well
starts pressing after they lose a few.

Speaker 3 (43:53):
You know, you've been watching the NFL for a long time.

Speaker 4 (43:57):
Have you ever made a finish first and second into division?
And if you haven't, would you be inclined to make
a bet like that?

Speaker 6 (44:06):
I love that idea, I really do, because again, like
we were talking about with what was it national championship
betting in college football, I think there's real value in
some of those bets depending on what the odds say, right, Like,
you could have a strong feel for a team or
teams because you live in certain markets where you're close

(44:30):
to some of the sources, or you understand maybe the
strength of that division, and ay, first of all season
long betting, to me, it locks you into something right,
you know, and if you cater it to your interests,
it makes the season more interesting.

Speaker 5 (44:47):
And then the other.

Speaker 6 (44:48):
Side of it is if you do, like I said,
have some insight. You've been following one team for a
long time, or a couple of teams in a division
for a long time. Like if you're an AFC West watcher,
you know, because you're a Chiefs fan, you know you
happen to have a little insight on the Denver Broncos
because you're a real Sickoh and you just love to
scout the opponents too. Like all of a sudden, you

(45:10):
start thinking, like, geez, you know, there's some good reports
coming out of Denver camp.

Speaker 5 (45:13):
I'm making it up. We know that's not true.

Speaker 6 (45:15):
But the point is, no, The point is I think
I think there's you could find a lot of value
in a season long Future's Division bet like that.

Speaker 7 (45:24):
Yeah, I think there's no market that I am unwilling
to invest slash research. I think the biggest thing that
a lot of Really, and again I will reiterate this
for all the people listening. I'm not a professional gambler.
I know, I'm a betting analyst and I do analyze
this on a daily basis, but my income is not

(45:45):
derived from betting, and I'm always transparent about that. There's
you know, Crack and Jeff Schwartz. I don't know about Jeff,
but I know Crack derives his income from betting very different.
He's coming at it from a very different angle. He
will probably tell you tomorrow if you ask the same
question to him Brian, that no, that's not what he
likes to play. Because people who derive their income from betting,

(46:07):
they bet very specifically on certain markets and they eliminate
everything else because there is zero entertainment value in what
they are trying to accomplish. I am not that I
like the entertainment value of betting. It is a big
part of why I got into gambling twenty years ago
in the first place, in high school, when I was
betting on these games. But I think the bigger picture

(46:28):
is if you are willing to sit and wait, Yes,
these markets can be incredibly fun, and I don't know
how much quote unquote value there is because you can
probably make a better wager by just looking at those
individual teams and then swimming in markets that are a
little more I'll call it easier to win long term

(46:51):
in I won't use a term that probably will confuse
a lot of people, but I think the first, second,
third fourth markets. Those are really hard markets to make
good wagers in. But fun wagers, Oh, unlimited amount of
fun in that market, and I probably will make one
or two, but very small and again something that you

(47:11):
have to be willing to sit watch and mature like
you're Toamagatchi when you were a kid, because that thing's
gonna take a long time before you know bears any fruit.

Speaker 6 (47:23):
I think you said something really important there, and I
did have a I was a proud Tomagachio so as
a youth, I and I am every single time mine
died before like day three.

Speaker 7 (47:36):
Which would probably make sense with these wagers as well.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
They might die before week three.

Speaker 6 (47:41):
Actually, yeah, you're one hundred percent right, because we know
what the percentages look like like. If the team gets
out to a zero and two start, even with the
seventeen game season, the lights get awfully dim really fast.
But yeah, just really quick. Because Brian, I'm curious your
thoughts if this is something you're interested in too. I
to what you said resonated with me because I look

(48:02):
at gambling very different than a crack would look at
gambling like he's staking his next meal.

Speaker 3 (48:09):
Correct, he's literally staking.

Speaker 6 (48:11):
Stakes on on his gambling, you know what I mean,
which I think is a noble profession. It's something that
is now becoming more and more acceptable state by state
as this is being legalized and the stigma's off. You know,
I look at gambling from an entertainment value standpoint, and
that's truly the value that I was honing in on,

(48:32):
Like you could keep a bet like that alive for
a good long stretch of this season, and that's that
feels good, Like when you're involved in something that that
keeps on stirring, It keeps the interest growing, it it
gives you something other than just hey, what's the upcoming
schedule looking like it's like, oh no, on the back burner,

(48:53):
I've got this cool thing going and it looks like
it's gonna hit.

Speaker 5 (48:56):
Like that's a.

Speaker 6 (48:57):
Fun feeling, that sort of royals in the background all
season long. But yeah, from a gambling value standpoint, from
a hey, is this the best usage of your money
long term to Land of futures? Maybe not, probably not,
But from an entertainment value standpoint, I could definitely see
the value there.

Speaker 3 (49:14):
Hey, I think you can do both.

Speaker 4 (49:16):
I think there are certain times where take the AFC
South for instance, do you see the Colts finishing in
first or second place, No I don't. Do you see
the Texans finishing in first or second place?

Speaker 3 (49:27):
No I don't. So there you go.

Speaker 4 (49:29):
If you're thinking about first and second, if you say,
all right, give me the Jags and Titans just like
last season, you can get that at plus two twenty
you a little bit better than two to one odds.

Speaker 3 (49:41):
That's not awful.

Speaker 4 (49:43):
Or if you want to flip flop it, you get
even longer odds and a bigger payout if you want
to go Titans Jags if you're so inclined and feeling
a little saucy there. So I think it really does
depend on the division. I wouldn't go willy nilly going
first and second in every division because there are some
where it's a bigger crap shoot. But I think you
can do both. I think that if you're more on

(50:03):
the entertainment side, you could certainly look to that. And
I think also if you're on the professional side, look,
these futures bets a lot of them. They're high risk.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
If you just look at college conferences.

Speaker 4 (50:16):
I mean, you look at Michigan and Ohio State on BETMGM,
they're at plus one point eighty a piece to win
the Big Ten. Penn State's at plus five point fifty,
followed by Wisconsin at plus six hundred. So it's plus
six hundred is a fancy way of saying six to one,
if that makes more sense to you. But there's a
lot of risk with that, even with a college football conference.

(50:39):
Who's gonna end up winning that thing? You know how
it goes. Think about Blake Korum last season with Michigan
getting banged up, the Heisman candidate running back. You could
have anything go haywire. So it's just interesting to me
what becomes more comfortable for you to bet, you know,
and the professionals are just like that. Also, they're more

(51:00):
comfortable betting on, hey, who's gonna win this college football
conference as opposed to who's gonna finish in first and
second place in the AFC South. And that's fine, Tomato, tomato.
But I'm just saying that it's not automatically a Joe play,
you know what I mean, it's pros versus Joe's that
it's not automatically a Joe's play. If the bros are

(51:22):
like and just not necessarily my cup of tea.

Speaker 6 (51:24):
Right there, I love the way you laid it out,
Like if you are and I mean, there's gonna be
a lot of different opinions about, for example, the NFC
North this year. But if you are totally down on
the Packers and the Bears, and you think that the
success Minnesota is replicable, and you have some belief in
the Detroit Lions based on how they finished the season
last year and the and the upward trajectory that Dan

(51:47):
Campbell has that culture on, you know, there could be
a little first second there too. I Yeah, the more
I wrap my head around it, the more I feel
like there is probably some value to be squeezed out
of it. Again, not as familiar with Jared the everyday
gambler the career gambler as you are, but I could

(52:10):
see this getting brought into a rotation if there's enough,
if there's enough value to squeeze out of a bet
like that. But but yeah, I mean to go back
to what you were just saying about, you know, even
conference championship odds. I am like when we talk Heisman futures,
when we talk you know, championship futures. I definitely like
to pick longer, longer odds futures like I like.

Speaker 5 (52:34):
The plus six hundred or the plus seven fifties because
I don't know, it just helps me sleep a little
bit better.

Speaker 6 (52:39):
I'm like, well, I'm actually taking a little bit of
risk here as opposed to going with chalk, and that's
not fun, you know, I don't know. Sometimes it's fun
to take chalk when it wins. But you know a
lot of times when you have the goofy bracket in
the march, that that makes it to the Sweet sixteen
and you're like, well, yeah, a lot of people doubt

(53:00):
and it doubted me here that the Golden Retrievers would
make a Sweet sixteen bid.

Speaker 5 (53:05):
Yeah here I am, who's laughing now?

Speaker 7 (53:09):
Or the Peacocks you're right, yeah, Peters or Fairleigh Dickinson
or any one of those teams. So there's a lot
of bets that are made by pros without even the
goal of winning it. And I think that's that's hard
for a novice gambler to understand because their bankrolls are

(53:30):
very limited. You might have one hundred dollars in your
BETMGM account and you might need to last that one
hundred dollars, might have to last the whole season, so
it's different when you're dealing with, you know, someone of
Crack's status that has hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of
bullets to fire into markets every single day. And I'll
give you a perfect example of this one that we

(53:51):
just saw in the NFL draft, when the reports came
out about Anthony Richardson's and then Brian it's the hot
button topic of the day, Anthony richard when the reports
came out about how great he looked at the combine
and all this the number one pick, and all the
rumors and the smoke screens. Professional gamblers, people infinitely smarter

(54:13):
at this than me, were hammering his prop to be
drafted first overall. Why because it was one hundred to one,
and then it was fifty to one, and then it
was forty to one, and it kept getting bed and
bed and bet and if you ask a lot of
professional gambles, and I did, because I remember I tweeted
it out. Do you guys even watch the games? Anthony

(54:34):
Richmond to be drafted first overall?

Speaker 3 (54:35):
Like come on?

Speaker 7 (54:36):
The responses I got a couple of them from professionals
were like, well, yeah, the number was wrong. It was
never about winning the bet it was about the number
being wrong, meaning it's going to move. If you got
one hundred to one on Anthony Richmond to be drafted first. Overall,
it probably closed I think around five or six to one.
That is a huge move in a market in a

(54:58):
short period of time. Now, the bet didn't win, it
never had any chance of winning. But what it did
is it set up an opportunity for you to come
off it and bet something else.

Speaker 3 (55:06):
And I think that is where it can.

Speaker 7 (55:08):
Be difficult for a novice gambler that just wants to
place a bet on a Saturday to have their team
win the game to kind of grasp that concept. But
a lot of gambling is done without any goal of winning,
just to move the market and to be on the
right side of the market move and then to come
back on the other side, and then to make a
guaranteed profit on whatever bet you originally had. So it's convoluted,

(55:32):
it's complicated. We will not get that deep in the
show throughout the season, but there will be moments when
you guys make your futures bets in August and then
all of a sudden, we call them back in November.

Speaker 3 (55:41):
And wow, that market moved a lot.

Speaker 7 (55:43):
Maybe I can bet the other side and make a
little guaranteed profit because it's no risk.

Speaker 3 (55:49):
I hear you.

Speaker 4 (55:51):
It's funny because I think about this. You can do
the exact outcome of the Super Bowl matchup. Oh man,
So the odds of the Arizona of Cardinals to beat
the Houston Texans, it's plus one million, bet, guys, don't

(56:12):
don't make that bet. Don't throw an don't make that bet.
It's also for the Arizona Cardinals to beat the Indianapolis Colts.

Speaker 3 (56:19):
Don't make that also plus a million.

Speaker 5 (56:21):
Don't do it.

Speaker 7 (56:22):
Don't do that, I think, and honestly, I think the
Super Bowl markets are really hard, the exactas like who
to beat who?

Speaker 3 (56:30):
You don't even know what?

Speaker 7 (56:32):
Like those markets are so the hold percentage is so high,
meaning what the sports book?

Speaker 5 (56:38):
This? This may get too far.

Speaker 6 (56:41):
I've got to ask this question though, and if it
is like too heady, maybe we'll skip it. But is
it could it be like a self perpetuating like a
self fulfilling prophecy what you said about futures markets and
professional gamblers, Like the number was wrong, so I bet it,
like I mean, yeah, you and all your so you're

(57:01):
the reason why the number is changing.

Speaker 5 (57:03):
So it's like, okay, good, we.

Speaker 3 (57:05):
Made it fifty to one.

Speaker 5 (57:06):
Yeah, now this makes sense. Good.

Speaker 6 (57:09):
It's like you're spending money so that the number looks right.
Like it's like blowing my mind, like I, oh, God
of profit off. Here's the adjectives.

Speaker 7 (57:19):
Nine is the adjective I would use because at the
end of the day, it's a losing wager. Anthony Richard
going first overall was a losing, losing wager. But professionals
that had one hundred to one and they see a
market close at five to one, they feel like they
made a good bet even though it lost.

Speaker 5 (57:32):
Right right, right, I get it.

Speaker 3 (57:34):
It's a different mentality, man, it is.

Speaker 7 (57:36):
And it's very different from what we do on this show. Again,
I'm not professional gambler. I don't make bets like that.
I'm trying to win every bet I made because my
bank roll is not as big as cracks. Let's be honest,
it's not. So you just have to be selective. I
think moderation. You know, Brian mentioned it, drinking moderation. It's
all the same.

Speaker 4 (57:54):
Hey, we're brought to you by a progressive insurance. Progressive
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Speaker 3 (58:14):
Yeah on the show this morning. We'll be back at
you tomorrow. It'll be me, uh, Jeffy tomorrow.

Speaker 4 (58:20):
Also Bill Krackenberger tomorrow on Countdown to Kickoff.

Speaker 3 (58:23):
But right now it's rich.

Speaker 4 (58:26):
Ornberger and his Navy blue August Summer fun t shirt
right there, Den State All America. We've got Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian no coming up next. It
is amazing how quickly things change in the NFL. This
is one of the best examples we have certainly heading
into this season. We'll share it with you. Next, it

(58:46):
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 3 (58:51):
It is Fox.

Speaker 4 (58:51):
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, BETMGM
Sportsbook account hound holders will receive a bonus bet I'm
back to the Anthony Richardson thing. The read I did
the first hour was amazing. This read not as much,
But it doesn't matter because I did one great read.
BETMGM Sportsbook account holders will receive a bonus bet to

(59:15):
use on any sport. Just log into BETMGM Sportsbook app
on iOS or Android, or visit betmgm dot com After
log in, get a bonus bet to use on any sport.
It's a beautiful thing right there. It's crazy how fast
things change in the NFL. Look no further than the
San Francisco forty nine Ers this week. I still can't

(59:37):
believe this quote Kyle Shanahan, forty nine Ers head coach.
He said Brock Purty would have to melt in practice
to lose the forty.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
Nine ers job.

Speaker 4 (59:50):
You'd have to melt in practice, like Reeen comes down.
I guess, yeah, I don't know's he just melts away
over there, kind of like Frosty Snowman or something.

Speaker 3 (59:59):
Like Wicked Witch of the West over the Yeah. But
think about this, Fran.

Speaker 4 (01:00:05):
We are two years removed from Trey Lance being the
number three overall pick getting traded up for And I
just looked at that too, Jared is if you look
at it, it was basically the forty nine Ers trading
with the Dolphins. The Niners traded three first round picks
and a third round pick, or if it screws you up,

(01:00:25):
like there's one pick swap in the first round, then
two first rounders and a third. But what's interesting is
one of those picks, you know, these picks they trade
hands and trade teams and all this stuff. One of
those picks, with the twelfth overall pick, that was Micah
Parsons of the Dallas.

Speaker 3 (01:00:42):
He's involved in that trade.

Speaker 4 (01:00:44):
Yes, yes, yeah, so the Niners one of those picks
that they trade, by the.

Speaker 6 (01:00:49):
Way, and don't sleep on Cole strange to the Patriots.

Speaker 5 (01:00:52):
That was another one of them.

Speaker 3 (01:00:54):
It's another one of them.

Speaker 4 (01:00:56):
Yes, And uh, if we're keeping track, Brian Brazi went
to the Saints right the Clemson defensive lineman right there,
and why are we still waiting on the third round pick?
We might be waiting on that one, but oh no, no,
we got it. It's a Channing Tyndall. Yeah, we got
a linebacker in there.

Speaker 7 (01:01:14):
Well, Micah Parsons a dead stop. I mean, if he
exact draft, he might be the number one pick in
that draft.

Speaker 4 (01:01:19):
He is an unbelievable defensive player, arguably the best yeah
in the game. Right now, like Nick Moosa, Miles Garrett,
the few ones up there.

Speaker 3 (01:01:29):
Sure he's right up there.

Speaker 4 (01:01:31):
And the Niners traded that was one of the picks
that they gave up to get Trey Lance. And now
two years later, the only way he's QB one is
if mister irrelevant Brock Purdy, the last pick of the draft,
melts in practice right after having elbow surgery when he

(01:01:51):
got knocked out of the NFC title game. That's how
fast things can change in the NFL.

Speaker 6 (01:01:56):
Gosh, I gotta tell you that draft alone, the tray last,
the Trey Lance Draft is a fireable offense for almost
every single head coach in general manager pairing in the NFL.
The San Francisco forty nine ers have done such a
great job of building that team and building that culture.

(01:02:18):
And I'm talking specifically about Shanahan and Lynch that they
save their jobs because when you move that much capital
to get a player who has been this unproductive, you're gone.
I mean, look at Kyler Murray, he's a pro bowler.
He got the general manager and a head coach fired.
That's that's how this business normally works. I mean, Trey Lance,

(01:02:42):
he has played a handful of snaps at the NFL level,
he's been made of glass and he's been unproductive. Okay,
Now that doesn't mean sometime in the future he can't
all of a sudden Geno smith Us and be like, whoops, yeah.

Speaker 8 (01:02:57):
You all rode it and I didn't read it, you know.

Speaker 6 (01:03:02):
But but outside of that happening, I mean, this is
this is as bad of a draft selection as we've
ever seen, as we've ever seen. So look, I mean,
I don't I want to go back to what I
said originally, if it weren't for the most important thing,
which is the NFC championship game appearances and the fact

(01:03:25):
that this team has dominated that division and it's been
a crowded division at times. You have the Rams who
have been burgeoning and winning a super Bowl in this
in this in this time like it's it's it's a
competitive division and they've still been on top for the
most part. But if it weren't for that, Shanahan and Lynch,
they they would have lost their jobs because this will

(01:03:47):
go down if it continues on the path it's currently
on as as maybe the worst draft selection we've ever seen.

Speaker 7 (01:03:54):
Yeah, and I think the thing that's even more remarkable
is all of these issues with the Niners, right and
they're still significant favorites to win their division.

Speaker 3 (01:04:05):
And they are starting a quarterback this year.

Speaker 7 (01:04:09):
We think it's you know, we're assuming it's gonna be
Brock based off of that report that Brian just read.
But heading into the year, we didn't know. We didn't
know if Brock was gonna be healthy coming off the
elbow injury. We didn't know if Trey Lance was going
to reach out and grab that job. Well, I think
both of those questions have been answered, and I think it.

Speaker 3 (01:04:27):
Is fair now.

Speaker 7 (01:04:28):
I was very skeptical of the Niners price to win
the division heading into the questions that we just asked
minus won sixty five. Right now, bet MGM is basically
saying there are a sixty percent chance to win the division.
And there hasn't been one snap in the NFL yet
this season, and they are already a significant favorite in a
crowded division. A RAMS team that I think will be

(01:04:49):
better this year, but probably still rebuilding and reloading from
the Super Bowl team, the Seahawks, who were in the
playoffs last year and gave the Niners a run in
that playoff game, but eventually succumbed to what was a
much deeper and better defense and overall talent, more talented
Niners team. And I think that is the reason why
those people still have jobs that we just mentioned, because

(01:05:11):
that's how good the Niners are. Immune from even drafting
your franchise quarterback in the top five and still continuing
to have team success the following year, a breath away
from the super Bowl and still favored to win the
division this year, despite that pick being so much of
a boss that we have to puzzle and question our

(01:05:34):
sanity for why it.

Speaker 5 (01:05:35):
Was made well.

Speaker 4 (01:05:36):
And that's the thing I think of it from this angle,
which is if you think of possible what if scenarios
coming true. We're not saying, hey, what if the Houston
Texans win a Super Bowl this year?

Speaker 3 (01:05:49):
It's got to be within the.

Speaker 4 (01:05:50):
Realm of reasonable, Okay, But think about this, Think about
the ripple effect of what if Brock Purdy is fool's gold,
if he isn't truly a franchise quarterback, what that would
mean for the Niners in the NFC. Taking a step further,
think about these young quarterbacks in the NFC. Who's good,

(01:06:11):
Who's gonna pan out? And who won't think about what
if Desmond Ritter of the Falcons, what if he's good?
What if Jordan Love of the Packers is good? You
look at who else? Bryce young rookie with Carolina, Sam
Howell with Washington. You know, first year starter Justin Fields

(01:06:31):
with the Bears. This is year three?

Speaker 3 (01:06:34):
Is he good year for Justin?

Speaker 4 (01:06:36):
It's a big year for him. This seems to be
like a fork in the road type year. So he
hasn't had weapons to this point for the most part.
Twenty four touchdowns, twenty one picks. How much does Dj
Moore help that? Can he be a true franchise quarterback?
But you think about all those guys in the NFC
and depending on who pans out, who doesn't. I'll tell

(01:06:58):
you this much. If Rock Berdy has been as productive
or meaning not as productive with with Trey Lance, the
Niners in a world have hurt. Yeah, So who pans out?

Speaker 5 (01:07:11):
Who does it?

Speaker 3 (01:07:11):
It's gonna be huge in the NFC because it is.
It's wide open. It is there for the taking for
many teams right now.

Speaker 6 (01:07:17):
Yeah, listen, it's it's one thing to successfully cook the
hamburgers for the for the cookout, right It's another thing
to start a forest fire in order to do it right,
I think it's better to use the barbecue.

Speaker 3 (01:07:34):
It's fantastic reference.

Speaker 6 (01:07:36):
I mean because that like, yes, the ends do justify
the means, but the means are important too. So if
the forty nine ers do end up winning a Super
Bowl and they also made one of the biggest draft
blunders along the way, that does still count for something.
It's it's still an embarrassment where you could have been

(01:07:58):
rich off of picks like we just laid out.

Speaker 5 (01:08:01):
So, I mean, you gotta be very careful how you
spend that draft capital.

Speaker 6 (01:08:05):
And maybe that was the biggest lesson that John Lynch
as a general manager has ever learned. That you don't
go all in on a kid, you know, who has
barely played at the college level, has barely played football
over the course of his life. If you really look
at the grand scheme of things and you say, yeah, no,
we're all in like that that because you just mentioned

(01:08:28):
all of the young quarterbacks in the NFC. Basically, I
bet you if you got John Lynch and you got
and you got Kyle Shanahan on the sodium Penthethal right
on the truth serum, and you told them right now today.
If I could trade, I mean straight up trade Rock
Party for any of those young quarterbacks you just mentioned,

(01:08:48):
they would do it in a heartbeat, even though he's
pretty the San Franz snowman. And unless he melts, he
gets the starting gig. Bryce Young yes, Howell yes, uh,
Jordan Love, Yes, Justin Fields, Yes.

Speaker 5 (01:09:05):
Give me those guys.

Speaker 3 (01:09:06):
But Party, Sorry, see you lady, you melted, you know
what I mean. It's crazy. But they've got Trey Lanson.

Speaker 4 (01:09:12):
They're saying no to him right well yeah, but yeah,
but yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:09:16):
You know, this reminds me of so when I was
a kid.

Speaker 7 (01:09:19):
I would always my mom would want to come, Hey,
do you want to go play a game or something,
and yeah, sure, Mom, let's go.

Speaker 3 (01:09:24):
Let's play legos, let's go play a game. And then my.

Speaker 7 (01:09:27):
Friends would come to the door, Hey, you want to
go outside and shoot some hoops or play hockey or whatever. Yep,
my mom, see you later. Like that to me, that's
like that's brock Purdy like it. At some point, Sorry,
there is going sorry mom, color play hockey outside whatever
we just set up.

Speaker 3 (01:09:45):
Yeah, I don't want to do that anymore.

Speaker 7 (01:09:46):
Like there's going to be some point where the Niners
pull the rug and move on to their franchise quarterback
in the future. But then there's this little bug inside
the back of my head that keeps saying, what if
he's Dom Brady, like the seventh round pig that just
become this great? Now, the odds of that happening are
probably as good as the odds of that Texans over
coult Super Bowl or whatever you know, crazy concoction Brian

(01:10:09):
was trying to cook up during those odds segment there.
But I think there's a small silly chance that he
is the franchise guy. But I would not be shocked
if at some point in the very near future, the
Niners decide to ditch mister irrelevant for the new shiny
toy that comes along. But here's here's the lens I'm

(01:10:30):
trying to look. Just look through this at and maybe
you guys can help me compare it. If we had
to compare what the Panthers just gave up to go
up and get Bryce Young compared to what the Niners
had to give up to go up and get Trey Lance,
we feel so differently about those two trades, right because
Bryce Young played at Alabama has a lot of resume

(01:10:53):
tape compared to Trey Lance didn't right, Like, those two
trades I think are comparable. I know number three, number
one not quite the same. But recently we haven't seen
a lot of big moves up for quarterback. We saw
it this year, and we saw it with Trey Lance.
It's such a different Like the optics of those two
trades are so different. Everyone who has a brain would

(01:11:13):
say odd. Rather it's young and that here's the thing.

Speaker 4 (01:11:16):
Yeah, the trade package that we gave up to get
Isaac Low and Kron handsomely paid off.

Speaker 3 (01:11:21):
We don't even regret it. I lo with the latest.
Let's do it well.

Speaker 9 (01:11:25):
Following up on your discussion, let's take you live to
brock Purty at San Francisco forty nine ers practice this morning.

Speaker 10 (01:11:38):
That is truly dramatic audio.

Speaker 3 (01:11:43):
Hold on, his voice got a little more high pitching A.

Speaker 9 (01:11:45):
Yes, sorry, I'm being told that was actually audio from
the Wicked Witch of the NFC West.

Speaker 7 (01:11:52):
Wow.

Speaker 9 (01:11:53):
No, No, I'm sorry the Wicked Witch of the West. Okay, sorry,
got a little crossed up there, fellas. Let's begin with
NFL preseason action on Friday night. Nobody melting anywhere, fortunately,
but the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons playing to a
thirteen to thirteen tie thanks to Young Way KU's forty
five yard field goal with two seconds left to play.

(01:12:14):
For the Falcons, their quarterback Desmond Rudder completed seven of
nine for eighty yards was intercepted, but it was on
a deflected pass. The New York Giants over the Carolina
Panthers twenty one to nineteen. Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young
completed three of six for thirty five yards. Daniel Jones
of the Giants completed eight of nine for sixty nine
yards and a touchdown. In Major League Baseball on Friday night,

(01:12:36):
the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Los Angeles Angels and
Anaheim and ten innings, nine to six, despite the Angels
turning their first triple play in twenty six years, and
despite show Hey Otani hitting a Grand Slam home run
for his forty third home run of the season, typical

(01:12:56):
expected anyway. The Miami Marlins hit five home runs and
on eleven three victory over the Dodgers in LA, breaking
the Dodgers eleven game winning streak, and the San Diego
Padres shut out the Arizona Diamondbacks four to nothing. Padres
scored four in the eighth, including a two run home
run by Fernando Tatis Junior, his twentieth of the season.

Speaker 4 (01:13:14):
Back to you, guys, I lo, I just want to
you know, standing ovation to the Angels, straight job going
down in flames. You know they're not going to get
anything for the most unique player in baseball history when
he walks and you have zero.

Speaker 3 (01:13:28):
Hey, last night Grand Slam.

Speaker 4 (01:13:30):
Turned a triple play in the ninth inning and then
the Angels still lose by three runs in extra innings?

Speaker 10 (01:13:37):
Will they think of next?

Speaker 1 (01:13:39):
What will they think of next?

Speaker 3 (01:13:41):
Angels?

Speaker 6 (01:13:42):
I mean, it really is they. I mean that should
be a verb. They angeled it like it is. It's
so consistently shoe hey, o'dani makes history in an Angel's loss.

Speaker 5 (01:13:54):
Back to you to.

Speaker 3 (01:13:57):
Ridiculous. Did you see the highlight of the triple play? Oh?
I was the most unique triple.

Speaker 7 (01:14:02):
Play I've ever seen because it was like a regular
double play and then it was like the end of
a like a It was so bizarre. It was almost
like two different plays in one and it kind of
got congealed into a triple play.

Speaker 3 (01:14:13):
It was horrible base running.

Speaker 5 (01:14:16):
Third base. Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:14:18):
The guy, the guy who caught the ball at first
after the double play like looked, was like, are you
really running home?

Speaker 3 (01:14:22):
Right?

Speaker 7 (01:14:23):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:14:23):
Runners at the corners throw it there, yeah, runners at
the corners, groundball to short The shortstop looked the base
runner on third back and then flipped it to the
second base and second baseman turns to and then you're right, Jared.
The first baseman's like, oh gosh, this.

Speaker 3 (01:14:41):
Guy's running right now.

Speaker 5 (01:14:42):
This is a very short distance to throw this bace.

Speaker 4 (01:14:47):
I love it too, because the uh the Angels Kevin
Cash was like, hold on, challenge the tag at home
and then challenge if the first basement was still on
first base.

Speaker 7 (01:14:58):
And then the guy in the uh you know, the
hot dog guy in the stands.

Speaker 3 (01:15:02):
You know, both were confirmed. That was hilarious.

Speaker 4 (01:15:05):
All right, coming up next situations. Okay, Jared's gonna debunk
a couple of myths, and I'm just trying to figure out,
like how much do I want to win off of
these guys who are drunk on Anthony richardson ring, Like
if I if I win a hundred bucks, is that okay?
If I win north of five hundred, am I a jerk,

(01:15:25):
you know, I'm having these questions.

Speaker 7 (01:15:27):
Just bet you said you're gonna make a bet with us.
You haven't proposed it.

Speaker 3 (01:15:30):
Yet, Yeah, just proposing. Next, we're waiting. Rich and I
are here with baited breath.

Speaker 6 (01:15:35):
We we got Richer Richardson, Yeah, rich Ornberger, Penn State
All American drinking the a rich.

Speaker 3 (01:15:41):
Cool day Richardson Ornberger over here.

Speaker 4 (01:15:43):
We've got Jared Smith FSR betting analysts drink Gatorade bath.

Speaker 3 (01:15:48):
You see on the.

Speaker 4 (01:15:49):
Soccer ball coaches, they're like, just throw that on me.
Throw that Anthony Richardson kool Aid. By way, that's that's
Jared Smith. I'm Brian though. I mean, I see floss.
That's all I'm saying, come too. Yeah, Ok, there's beauty
in in.

Speaker 5 (01:16:03):
I see zero flaws. Hall of Famer. Just like Michael
Pittman Junior.

Speaker 4 (01:16:07):
Said, situations and stakes, it's on the way. It's Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.

Speaker 3 (01:16:15):
The guy is drunk, but there he goes.

Speaker 4 (01:16:18):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by
bet MGM.

Speaker 3 (01:16:23):
Let's dive on into this.

Speaker 1 (01:16:28):
Any situation that may arrived. It's a situation room.

Speaker 4 (01:16:33):
I'd be sure to follow BETMGM across all socials at BETMGM. Okay,
mister Jared Smith, you got situations for us debunking myths.
Let's not start off with Anthony Richardson is a Greek
god and it's gonna start.

Speaker 3 (01:16:47):
To set the world on fire. Let's start somewhere else.
Where's your head at today. Let's start with the do theory.
We hear this all the time.

Speaker 7 (01:16:54):
This team is due. They haven't won in this many games.

Speaker 3 (01:16:57):
They're due.

Speaker 7 (01:16:59):
That is the gambler's fallacy. So the gambler's fallacy is
you walk up to a.

Speaker 3 (01:17:04):
Let's say a.

Speaker 7 (01:17:06):
Table that is doing a coin flip, and you say, well,
the odds are even on both sides, fifty to fifty, right,
it's coin.

Speaker 3 (01:17:11):
Flip pedsert tails. But you look at the little.

Speaker 7 (01:17:13):
Screen and you see the last twenty flips have all
been tails.

Speaker 3 (01:17:18):
Oh, well, heads is due.

Speaker 7 (01:17:20):
I'm gonna bet heads on the next time because the
last twenty flips have all been tails. Actually, the next
flip fifty percent heads, fifty percent tails. It does not
matter what a team has done last week, last month,
last season, each roll of the dice, each flip of
the coin is its own independent simulation. In sports betting,

(01:17:43):
each game is very much not connected to what happened
last week. There are situations that we can maybe glean
from last week and use as our handicap to bake
the cake, But in general, the do theory is a
myth and I would advise all of you against using
it this year.

Speaker 4 (01:18:02):
So when a rich sucks in the first four games,
you're not gonna say he's the two five is that.

Speaker 7 (01:18:08):
He's No, we're not going to say that because usually
each individual game is its own independent event.

Speaker 6 (01:18:16):
See that is interesting because football seasons, like years, the
way coaches look at it, they're all in vacuums, right,
But we believe in a locker room, in momentum. Right,
So when we're when we're sitting in a practice meeting
after a two game win streak, the feeling in that

(01:18:36):
room is way different than you're on.

Speaker 5 (01:18:39):
A two game losing streak. Sure you know what I'm saying.

Speaker 6 (01:18:41):
So, like, it's interesting in the betting world that we
look at it in a vacuum, but in actuality, and
I mean living through it and experiencing it and being
a part of wins and losses throughout my entire point career,
whether it's college or pro. I mean, there is momentum
that's not that's that's not a fake thing, it's a
real thing.

Speaker 5 (01:19:01):
I've felt it, Like.

Speaker 7 (01:19:02):
I pushback is with that momentum, the market will then
move in your favor. Oh I g Yeah, the Patriots
win this week, they win, next week, they win the following,
they've won three games in a row in week four,
the market will move so much to where it's not
the same, it's not as valuable of a wager the following.

Speaker 3 (01:19:22):
You know what, you can kind of catch my drift
a little bit.

Speaker 6 (01:19:24):
Yeah, no, no, no, that does make sense because you're
saying the momentum is built into.

Speaker 7 (01:19:28):
The price exactly, It's baked into the cake already, and
we need to handicap that game individually, independently of what
happened the prior weeks, because it doesn't matter what happened
last week.

Speaker 3 (01:19:39):
Last week the price was different than it is this week.
D You'll hear me.

Speaker 7 (01:19:42):
Talk about the price and relative to the market a
lot this year, because to me, that matters so much
more than momentum.

Speaker 4 (01:19:51):
See I like how Ridge disagrees better. I just straight
out say I totally disagree. But Rich will say something like.

Speaker 3 (01:19:58):
Well, Rich is a nice guy.

Speaker 4 (01:20:00):
Listen, you gotta listen. Listen, put on your listening ears,
and shut up for a second. See what I say.

Speaker 3 (01:20:08):
See how I am? Yeah, He'll say, you know, see
that's interesting.

Speaker 4 (01:20:12):
That's him disagreeing in a very likable manner.

Speaker 5 (01:20:16):
Well, I mean, very likable person, Brian, true. Yeah, you
should see. You should just ask my wife. I mean, really,
this is a good debate.

Speaker 7 (01:20:26):
It is.

Speaker 3 (01:20:27):
I see both sides of this argument.

Speaker 7 (01:20:29):
But I try to treat every game like I don't
remember what happened last week.

Speaker 3 (01:20:34):
It's all fresh, fresh.

Speaker 4 (01:20:36):
Powder, okay, coming up next, high stakes potentially. And also
this is the definition of desperation mode.

Speaker 5 (01:20:47):
Oh baby.

Speaker 9 (01:20:51):
In Major League Baseball, on Friday night, the Tampa Bay
Rains and Los Angeles Angels squared off in Anaheim. The
Angels turned their first triple play in twenty six years.
Show Hey Otani hit a grand Slam home run, his
forty third of the season, and you guested. The Angels

(01:21:11):
lost in ten innings, nine to six to the Tampa
Bay Rays. The Miami Marlins hit five home runs and
an eleven three victory. Over the Dodgers in LA, breaking
the dodgers eleven game winning streak. Padres over the Diamondbacks
four nothing. San Diego scored four in the eighth, including
a two run home run by Fernando Tatis Junior, his
twentieth of the season. NFL preseason Friday Night Bengals and

(01:21:34):
Falcons played to a thirteen to thirteen tied. Giants over
the Panthers twenty one to nineteen. Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce
Young completed three of six passes for thirty five yards.
I'm Isaac Lohencron.

Speaker 3 (01:21:48):
Are you ready to witness quotes?

Speaker 2 (01:21:50):
Football fans? Welcome to the biggest tailgate party.

Speaker 1 (01:21:54):
In the nation.

Speaker 3 (01:21:57):
Different day than recipe.

Speaker 2 (01:21:59):
Fox Sportsos Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bet MGM, the
gig of sportsbook. We're setting you up with the information
you need to watch your team win.

Speaker 1 (01:22:10):
Let's go. We're here to break it all down as well.
Let's go.

Speaker 2 (01:22:15):
Bett mg app. No, We're live from your tail game.
Here's Brian No, former Penn State All American, Rich Ornberger
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 4 (01:22:32):
Desperation mode defined that is on the way it is
Fox Sports radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Every
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(01:22:55):
hotel rooms at over twenty MGM resorts.

Speaker 3 (01:22:59):
Okay, so how about Stanford?

Speaker 4 (01:23:02):
Oh Man, So Stanford, they have told the ACC they'd
be willing to join the conference on a reduced or
even no media rights payout. They are that desperate. We're
in the pack four right now. Everybody's left the back
twelve pretty much. We need to go somewhere. If it's

(01:23:24):
the ACC, fine, don't even worry about paying us. And
that's where they are right now, where they're basically saying,
but we're good in the Olympic sports.

Speaker 3 (01:23:35):
You know, we don't make money off of them. But
that counts for something, right? Can you pretend it counts
for something?

Speaker 4 (01:23:42):
They're willing to take reduced or no media rights payout
to join the ACC.

Speaker 3 (01:23:47):
That's where they are right now wow. Wow.

Speaker 6 (01:23:51):
You know, look, the sad thing about this is Stanford,
not too long ago, from a football standpoint, in the pact,
in the PAC twelve, when it still was the PAC twelve,
was one of those teams that was gaining some ground
nationally where preseason prospectuses or prospecti or prospectuses I don't

(01:24:14):
know how to.

Speaker 5 (01:24:15):
Pluralize that word cacti. They were. They were really positive.

Speaker 6 (01:24:20):
And to see where that program is now and to
see where the PAC twelve is now, it just look,
I mean, this is a microcosm of the mismanagement of
that conference top to bottom. I mean, you read that
La Times article like I'm sure everybody else did. It's
it's just been a comedy of eras and this is

(01:24:41):
this is what occurs when you overplay your hand.

Speaker 7 (01:24:46):
Yeah, I don't have a whole lot of faith in
the in in the product that we're going to see
this year and overall with these teams, it's going to
deteriorate because maybe not this year, but what this does,
it's a trickle down effect. Just like teams joining the
bigger conferences will eventually have the opposite effect in terms

(01:25:09):
of the recruiting and the television money and all of
the things that come with that, the boost and nil
money and the boosters and all of the little bells
and whistles that come with being a have in college
football instead of have not. And you mentioned it off
the top, Brine, and that is how desperate these teams
are to get back to the table a seat at

(01:25:31):
that table. They are willing to forfeit millions of dollars
just to get a seat at the table. It shows
how important the conference, unfortunately, alignment and realignment and misalignment
is in the landscape of college football today. I have
been a proponent on this show and every show that
I go on that will listen to me. Conferences in

(01:25:52):
college football are meaningless. We don't need them anymore. The
only reason why they exist is because it's nostalgic to
have these teams play each other, and because there's this
whoever commissioner is grabbing onto these conferences and praying that
we can keep this structure in set because they get
paid based off of how much television money they get.

(01:26:13):
But in terms of what the conferences do today, they're useless.

Speaker 3 (01:26:19):
They're like your appendix.

Speaker 7 (01:26:21):
If we got rid of all the conferences today again,
nostalgia aside, and we just set up a top thirty
teams in college football and we just play a season
with those teams, we would have a very similar outcome
to what we have now. With the conference format, I
think we are moving towards a two party system in
college football, where there's two major conferences that compete every

(01:26:42):
year and nothing else really.

Speaker 3 (01:26:44):
Matters outside of that.

Speaker 4 (01:26:46):
You know, I've heard that talked about a lot, and
I just don't see it. Look, I don't have a
crystal ball. You might be right, shared I don't know.
I just don't see it. To me, that's saying the
quiet part out loud. You know, we know that there
are only you know, whatever, you want to put the
number at thirty some schools that have a legitimate chance
to compete and win a championship right now, that's the way,

(01:27:10):
that's the reality right now. Why do we have to
make it official, you know, by splintering off and having
just those thirty teams which listen, they jockey back and
forth a little bit, like, I just don't see that
being the landscape of college football. I think it's gonna
remain relatively similar where you get teams shifting here they

(01:27:31):
join this conference. All right, here's the setup. Okay, we're
gonna tweak the playoff format. It's gonna be this. I
think we're gonna see a lot more tweaking than something
just absolutely seismic where you're splintering off and they're just
these thirty teams where I don't want to get to
you know, philosophical here. But this is the day and

(01:27:52):
age of inclusion, you know what I mean. And for
the most part, it's good. You deserve a seat at
the table, like you're not excluded here. But college football
is just going to swing the exa opposite way and
say it's just these thirty schools and just these thirty
schools alone.

Speaker 3 (01:28:07):
I don't see it. I hope I'm right.

Speaker 5 (01:28:10):
You know.

Speaker 3 (01:28:10):
Maybe that's part of it, that's what I'm.

Speaker 4 (01:28:12):
Rooting for, but I just don't see it logistically happening,
even though it's talked about a lot.

Speaker 5 (01:28:18):
Yeah, no, I agree with you.

Speaker 6 (01:28:20):
I think, well, not for nostalgist sake, but because it's
something that there are still people who are in places
of being in charge who still like conferences, and those
people are being paid to be involved with conferences. So
as long as there's still salaries being collected by commissioners

(01:28:40):
and executives and chair people, you're going to have people
interested in keeping conferences alive. Look, there are a lot
of jobs in the United States. Look, there's a lot
of important jobs. But there are a lot of jobs
in the United States and across the world that don't matter.
And there's a lot of people who go to work
every day and they realize how little they do on

(01:29:02):
a daily basis. Like they go to the office, they
punch their card, they try to look busy for the
entire workday, but they realize that they only really have
two hours of work today.

Speaker 5 (01:29:11):
They're getting paid for eight.

Speaker 6 (01:29:13):
And then they go home and they feel like they're
chained to their desk. But at the same token, like
there's a little bit of a feeling of, well, be
grateful that you have that job, because that job is
relatively meaningless in the grand scheme of things. And that's
kind of how I feel about conferences, Like you don't
necessarily need them, but there is this feeling of, well,

(01:29:35):
how will it look on the other side, and will
we be living in the land of unintended consequences without them?

Speaker 7 (01:29:41):
You know, it just sounds like us. This sounds like you,
guys are the person that's afraid to break up with
their girlfriend because you're afraid of being single, not because
the relationship itself is toxic. It's a terrible like the
conference relationship right now is toxic. It is toxic. I'm
gonna look you in the eyes and tell you I'm
gonna stay and I'm going to turn around and look

(01:30:03):
at the other direction and leave. It's toxic. And a
lot of people are afraid of change, and I understand that,
and I'm not gonna say that we're gonna just evolve
into a two party system overnight. I'm gonna treat it
like my fitness routine over the summer. When I started
my fitness routine, I couldn't run a mile consecutively without stopping.
Three months later, slow incrementally getting better and stronger and

(01:30:26):
faster and healthier, and now I can run a mile
without stopping. I'm not looking for a pat on the back,
but if you want to give me one, I will
certainly take it. But my point being, it doesn't happen overnight.
We are now in let's say, the third inning of conferences,
just completely imploding on each other. We saw it a
little bit with the SEC getting Texas and Oklahoma, and

(01:30:47):
then the Big ten gets there, UCLA and USC, and
now the PAC twelve starts dissolving into evaporating into thin air.
And all of those people that you mentioned that still
have jobs in the PAC twelve, well they might not
add them anymore coming soon, and we are taking small
steps one by one. In ten years, this format that

(01:31:09):
we're talking about today will look nothing like we are
about to experience this college football season.

Speaker 3 (01:31:15):
It will be unrecognizable. What will it look like.

Speaker 7 (01:31:18):
I don't have a crystal ball either, I don't know.
Actually I do have a crystal ball, but I don't
use it for that.

Speaker 3 (01:31:22):
I use it for other things.

Speaker 7 (01:31:23):
But my point being, I don't necessarily think we are
that far away from a two party system. But I'm
trying to look at the forest through the trees, and
it's tough right now, but I could see a path.

Speaker 3 (01:31:35):
I can see a path to it.

Speaker 7 (01:31:37):
But it's gonna take time, and it's gonna take a
lot more of Callan Stanford willing to basically bail on
everything just to get a seat at the ACC.

Speaker 4 (01:31:45):
Yeah, I don't see it, and I hope we never
do see it because I think when you when you
stop and think, if it was just thirty teams and
that's it and they're competing for the national championship, there are,
believe it or not, some quality teams that aren't a
part of that mix, and to riches can, how is

(01:32:06):
that gonna work? How is that gonna work? Exactly? I
don't see this being European soccer. I don't see relegation
and I don't see that being the reality.

Speaker 3 (01:32:16):
And what rich said is true.

Speaker 4 (01:32:18):
It would be like, okay, you know what, Bob bowlsby,
thanks for your contributions. We'll take it from here, you know,
or you know what I mean, like yorkm over it
with the Big twelve, or hey, acc commissioner, we don't
even you anymore in this think we're just gonna go
with Greg Zank and he's the guy, and you other guys.
You know, hopefully you've updated your resumes. You'll land on

(01:32:39):
your feet. It'll be fine, you know what I mean.
Like in some of these schools, if you look at
the top thirty teams right now, Auburn's not one of them.
You'd have Auburn on the outside like they've they've won
it all before. It it's weird to think about it
like that. I just don't think that's the case. Time
will tell what the landscape is gonna look like ten
years from now. Your guess is as good as mine.

(01:33:01):
I don't think it's gonna be just these thirty teams
and then everybody else. Hey man, play for second place
in whatever Piddley format you come up with. But the
here and now is this. How about the PAC twelve?
I think this is an interesting bet on bet MGM. Yeah,
you can go with either USC or UCLA to win
the conference, or you can take the field. So USC

(01:33:23):
slash UCLA is at plus one twenty five, so a
little bit better than even money. The field is at
minus one sixty five, so you'd have to lay one
sixty five to win one hundred dollars. You just risk it, right, Yeah,
to win that. Well, what are you guys taking? Are
you taking a so cal or are you going with
the field there to win the PAC twelve this season?

Speaker 5 (01:33:44):
Boy?

Speaker 6 (01:33:45):
USC is doing a lot of work on that, uh
on their end of that.

Speaker 3 (01:33:50):
Right, Yeah, Well we'll toss in UCLA. Is you know
they wanted to give you the Hollywood tale.

Speaker 5 (01:33:59):
Yeah, the Hollywood versus the field. Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:34:02):
I mean honestly, I am going with USC UCLA against
the field because I think USC wins that conference. But
but and it's a big butt. The The thing, the
thing that drives me crazy is it doesn't matter right
now if you win your conference. It just doesn't, you know.
I mean, like, there's there's no automatic bid. There's no

(01:34:23):
there's there's nothing that makes you feel the warm and
fuzzies around around tournament time with a four team bracket.
So it doesn't matter yet. Now there may be a
system one day where the conferences do get auto bids
and then we start really starting, I mean starting then
we focus our attention on the importance of conferences. But

(01:34:46):
going back to the original conversation about Stanford and them
leaving the PAC twelve for no money, and you know,
the conference is devolving, dissolving into maybe a two party system.
I have two kids. I have an eight year old
and a five year old. They were born of the
Netflix era, the streaming era. They know no different. We

(01:35:07):
were cord cutters before they really were cognizant of anything.
So we don't have traditional cable. They will never know
the joys of channel surfing like I did. And by
the way, they're not missing out. They don't care because
they don't know any different. This bothers us because we're

(01:35:28):
in our thirties, we're in our forties. This isn't gonna
bother a fifteen year old because guess what, when they
start sports betting or they really start paying attention to
their alma mater, they're gonna be indoctrinated. So when my
kid says, hey, Dad, can we this is boring? Can
we turn on the Disney app?

Speaker 11 (01:35:48):
And I'm like, gosh, geez, now, I gotta exit this
app and I gotta start the Disney Plus and then
I gotta scroll through all the options and I gotta
find the Thunderman's.

Speaker 6 (01:35:58):
Like he doesn't understand that it used to be all
I had to do is hit channel back to go
back to the Disney channel to get around the commercial break, like.

Speaker 5 (01:36:11):
He has no awareness of this.

Speaker 6 (01:36:14):
So again, I think we're having this debate over conferences
because we're indoctrinated to understanding the importance of conferences. But
to some fifteen year old kid who's just starting to
get involved in football and college football and understanding the conferences.

Speaker 5 (01:36:31):
He's probably saying, hey, Dad, why are there conferences?

Speaker 3 (01:36:35):
This doesn't make any sense, and he's.

Speaker 7 (01:36:38):
Right, Yeah, if I ever have kids, they're not going
to know what conferences are. That's how far down the
road we're going to be when that happened. I mean,
and I think I don't want to go too much
into this crazy hypothetical. This is the scenario that I
see playing out with conferences because I really don't know.
I think I think it makes sense that there's really

(01:36:58):
only thirty to forty teams every year that have any
reasonable chance of winning a national title. I think it
makes sense to group those teams together. But I also
see why there are a lot of positives to keeping
these teams kind of group together based off of I
don't know, you can't even call it region anymore. It's
just more based off of need, I guess, and then

(01:37:20):
you kind of filter it down and then you get
to that top sixteen, which is the College of Well Playoff,
which is I think the number we're moving towards eventually.

Speaker 3 (01:37:30):
But the PAC twelve is syinara. I mean, it's over.

Speaker 7 (01:37:36):
It's a conference of champions, and it's a conference that
I think is really good in the sports that unfortunately
don't matter. But to go back to Brian's original question
on what I would do with that, bet absolutely take
the field. I like Oregon, I like Utah, I like Washington.
I get three of those teams. There are no divisions
in the PAC twelve this year, which means the top

(01:37:56):
two teams straight up will play each other in Pac
twelf championship game. I feel highly confident it will not
be USC versus UCLA. And if that's the case, if
I pick the field, I am guaranteed to have one
team in the conference championship game with a plus whatever

(01:38:17):
whatever minus whatever. Wage You're there and then I can
either bet the other side or I can figure out what.

Speaker 3 (01:38:22):
I want to do with it then.

Speaker 7 (01:38:23):
But it doesn't make sense to take two when I
can have I think three or four worthy candidates in
the field.

Speaker 4 (01:38:30):
No, I hear you on that. I agree with that.
I look at it the same way. One little thing,
I'll put a little bow on this whole conference realignment thing.

Speaker 3 (01:38:38):
There's one thing I hate. I don't know if you
guys are the same way.

Speaker 4 (01:38:41):
If I go visit friends or family and let's say
I'm leaving on Sunday. I hate when they discuss, Hey, hey,
on Wednesday.

Speaker 3 (01:38:53):
We've got that thing and we're gonna.

Speaker 4 (01:38:55):
Go here or go there or whatever, you know what
I mean, Like if it's friends or family, like I
want to have that time with them, you know, and
I'm not going to be around and I think I
don't care about Wednesday. I care about now. I care
about today. And I think we're seeing that with conference realignment.
There's so much focus on the future and where things
are headed and are we going to have two conferences

(01:39:18):
and what's the landscape going to be? And that's not
all bad, but if we're so hyper focused on it
to the point where it's like, oh, yeah, we got
a season this year that's coming up, right, Like I
think we're spending way too much time. I agree, right,
just freaked out, Like we've got realignment anxiety.

Speaker 3 (01:39:37):
It's a walking point and listen, we have a lot
of airtime to fill.

Speaker 7 (01:39:40):
But no, no, yeah, there's nothing wrong with seasons about
the start and yeah, but it's.

Speaker 4 (01:39:44):
Like, oh, yeah, the twenty twenty three season is here. Yeah,
Like what why are we worried about twenty thirty four
and what conference?

Speaker 3 (01:39:55):
That's just where we are sorry.

Speaker 7 (01:39:57):
It's human nature, though. We always think about the future
and st that have enjoyed the present.

Speaker 4 (01:40:01):
Hey, man, it's okay to think about it, it's okay
to consider considerate, but to dwell on it at the expense.

Speaker 3 (01:40:08):
Of the now.

Speaker 4 (01:40:09):
Sure, I'm just not with that, That's all I'm saying. Hey,
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We've got rich Orenberger, Penn State, All American. He's doing
skull crushers. He's ready for the season. We've got Jared Smith,

(01:40:31):
he's running a mile.

Speaker 10 (01:40:32):
Are you ready?

Speaker 7 (01:40:34):
I'm really proud of that fewd I know it doesn't
sound very like a big deal, but when I got
my full mile in it was like two weeks ago.

Speaker 3 (01:40:40):
For the first time it's without stopping. It was a
big deal for me.

Speaker 4 (01:40:43):
It's good FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No, I couldn't
run a mile straight right now, I'll tell you that much.
A couple of knee surgeries.

Speaker 3 (01:40:50):
To work on the time of that mile. But hey
we got through. Hey you got there, you got there.
Coming up next?

Speaker 4 (01:40:56):
Rich had it right last year, will he run it
back again this year? Let's find out next. It is
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Be sure to check out the new looking features in
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(01:41:17):
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Speaker 3 (01:41:38):
That's code countdown.

Speaker 4 (01:41:40):
Okay, fellas, let's dive into this countdown and.

Speaker 1 (01:41:45):
Co Heisman Watch ge.

Speaker 4 (01:41:50):
Okay, So first things, first, props to Rich Ornberger because
we did the Heisman Watch last season, and very early
on he was like, you know this, Caleb William guy,
and I certainly was. I think you were too. Jared,
We're like, USC's not gonna win enough. They're coming off
a four and eight season, their defense is brutal, and
Caleb Williams.

Speaker 3 (01:42:11):
Won the Heisman.

Speaker 4 (01:42:15):
I don't know if you want to just run it
back this year and call your shot Who's gonna win it?

Speaker 5 (01:42:19):
Rich?

Speaker 3 (01:42:19):
What are you thinking here? Man?

Speaker 5 (01:42:21):
It's Jordan Travis.

Speaker 6 (01:42:22):
Jordan Travis will win the Heisman the Florida State Seminole.
And because remember this isn't just about stats. Stats are
truly important in the Heisman race, but it's also narrative.
It's also storyline. This is a team that has been
decimated with losing seasons from twenty eighteen through twenty twenty one,

(01:42:43):
Florida State returns a whole lot of weapons for Jordan Travis.
The Seminoles are making a lot of noise in their conference.
Maybe they want to jump ship if this If this
guy is as good as he looked in twenty twenty two,
because if you look at big time throws, which are
excellent timing, downfield, perfect ball placement, he was only beaten

(01:43:03):
out by Caleb Williams last year. So if the Seminoles
have that special of a season like I'm expecting them
to this year with how they've reloaded over this offseason,
look out, Jordan Travis might be the runaway favorite by midseason.

Speaker 5 (01:43:18):
Wow.

Speaker 3 (01:43:19):
How I really liked that? And here's why I love it.

Speaker 7 (01:43:22):
I love correlating these bets to what the odds are
to make the college football playoff because let's be honest,
if one of these guys is going to win this award,
the team's success has to also be there. And so
when I look at a team like Florida State that's
three to one to make the College football Playoff, and

(01:43:43):
then you look at Jordan Travis's odds at sixteen to
one to win the Heisman Trophy, in my eyes, those.

Speaker 3 (01:43:50):
Bets are the same.

Speaker 7 (01:43:52):
If Florida State makes the college football Playoff, Jordan Travis
is going to be on the Heisman podium. I don't
think there's any debate there at all, Franks. So if
I'm going to make a three to one wage you're
thinking that Florida State can make the College ball Playoff,
I would rather just bet sixteen to one Jordan Travis
to win the Heisman Trophy because, again, in my eyes,

(01:44:13):
if Florida State makes the playoff, it's because of Jordan Travis.
In his unbelievable season, and those two bets make sense.
I'll give you another one that in my eyes correlates
to what the college ball playoff market says LSU, which
is plus three twenty five to make the playoff. Jayden
Daniels is nine to one to win the Heisman if

(01:44:33):
LSU is able to beat Alabama during the regular season,
go to the go to the SEC Championship game, win
beat Georgia, Jayde Daniels is gonna be a big reason
why he to me is that, well, if LSU's team
success makes sense, you have to give Jaydon Daniels to
Heisman not as well. So I'd put Jordan Travis and

(01:44:54):
I'd put Jayde Daniels in my Heisman portfolio.

Speaker 4 (01:44:57):
Preseason, our trusted producer both and pointed out something interesting
where if you look at these Heisman odds, the top
twelve guys with the shortest odds are all quarterbacks. That
makes total You had to get to thirteenth overall with
Marvin Harrison Junior, the Ohio state wide receiver to find
a non quarterback boasted there. And now think about this,

(01:45:18):
this is the Heisman Trophy. We've seen plenty of running
backs we've seen wide receivers, we've even seen a defensive player,
and Charles Woodson win it.

Speaker 3 (01:45:28):
Right, Like, it's not just a quarterback award yet.

Speaker 4 (01:45:32):
In this season in college football, top twelve guys are
all quarterbacks. Sixteenth is Blake Korum out of Michigan. Now
he's coming off the knee injury, but he was right
in line. He was a legitimate Heisman contender before a
late season injury. And he's sixteenth on the list this year,
and he's the top running back on the list. So

(01:45:52):
it's wild the landscape in terms of quarterbacks dominating here
in college football. As far as the Heisman odds to
begin the season, I love.

Speaker 6 (01:46:01):
I love this so much, Like this is the bet
that I look forward to every single season because I
feel like, I look, you know, look, there are a
lot of fun futures bets, but picking a horse, you know,
kind of like you're out of track and saying like no, no, no, no,
there's something special about that three horse, the way he.

Speaker 5 (01:46:20):
Was eating carrots but pre race, Like I just, I mean,
Heisman odds are like that.

Speaker 6 (01:46:25):
It's a you have stallions out there, It's the Kentucky Derby.
Everybody's wearing their goofy hats. Let's go like this is
this is a fun bet to place and I think
that I actually give him what you said, Jared, I
didn't even think of it as correlative, Like when you
look at the team overall and you're assuming their success

(01:46:46):
and then basing some of your Heisman picking off of that.

Speaker 5 (01:46:49):
Yeah, I mean, I know Florida.

Speaker 6 (01:46:50):
State's gonna have a good team, but yeah, if you
believe in the Seminoles, if you believe they're gonna have
a good year, well then it's going to mostly be
bold by the fact that they have a stud at quarterback,
and so that should just be sort of hand and glove.
So this is my favorite bet of the year, and
also probably because I guessed it right last year as well.

Speaker 7 (01:47:12):
Yes, one of these quarterbacks is gonna make a move too.
I don't know if it's gonna be Colm McCord at
Ohio State. I don't know if it's gonna be Milroe
at Alabama, one of these quarterbacks or the kid from
Georgia to Carson Beck.

Speaker 3 (01:47:23):
Like one of those.

Speaker 7 (01:47:24):
And again, you should not be looking at a Heisman
Trophy candidate that is on a team that has no
chance to make the playoff. It just I just don't
see any opportunity for a team that is seven and
five to put a guy on the Heisman podium.

Speaker 3 (01:47:40):
It's just it's so rare and it doesn't happen very often.

Speaker 7 (01:47:43):
They have to be at least in their conference championship
game or on the road to the College ball playoff,
that team's success correlates to a Heisman trophy. That's why
I'm down on a guy like Drake May because I
guess I don't see it with UNC.

Speaker 3 (01:47:56):
I don't see them winning ten or eleven games. I
don't see them making it to the AEC championship game.

Speaker 7 (01:48:02):
And as talented as he is, I can't get behind
a guy to win a Heisman that I don't think
his team can even win their conference, which is not
a very good conference to begin with. Like UNC is
the third best team in their conference, they're UNC in
the ACC.

Speaker 3 (01:48:17):
So try to keep that in mind when you're placing
these these.

Speaker 7 (01:48:20):
These Heisman back Try to pick horses on teams that
had a stable of good horses already that you could
kind of just pick the best one.

Speaker 3 (01:48:28):
Well, that's the thing, man.

Speaker 4 (01:48:29):
It's great advice and I hate that it's great advice
because the heisman has become too dependent on team's success.

Speaker 3 (01:48:36):
I know that should be an element of it.

Speaker 4 (01:48:39):
But if there's a dude who goes off for a
non playoff team.

Speaker 3 (01:48:44):
Ann Jackson to the last one, I think a.

Speaker 4 (01:48:46):
Non conference championship team, right, like not even getting to
your conference championship game. If you go ballistic, you should
be right in the thick of that thing. But oftentimes,
to Jared's point, you're not. It's it's un fortunate, but
that's the way it typically goes, Hey, the way it
typically goes with Isaac Lowencron. You get some charisma, you

(01:49:06):
get some energy, you get some wits, and you get
some information all wrapped up and a nice bundle with
the smile on Tom.

Speaker 3 (01:49:14):
That's what you get. I Low with the latest here.

Speaker 9 (01:49:16):
We're also going to get some time travel. Gonna take you,
fellas back to May seventeenth, twenty twenty one. On that date,
over two years ago, a resident of Toronto named Matt
English tweeted the following, and I quote every time I

(01:49:38):
see an angel's highlight, it's like Mike Trout hit three
home runs and raised his average to five twenty eight,
while show Hey O'tani did something that hasn't been done
since Tungsten arm Odoyle of the nineteen twenty one Akron
Groomsman as the Tigers. If Hey of the Angels eight
to three, unquote, that's a.

Speaker 10 (01:50:01):
Famous tweet, man's famous.

Speaker 4 (01:50:03):
I don't know if it's a famous X now, I
don't know how that worked.

Speaker 10 (01:50:06):
I'm still gonna call it a Yeah, what's it gonna do?
Block me? You apparently can't do that anymore.

Speaker 3 (01:50:10):
I can't do that either anymore.

Speaker 9 (01:50:12):
Well, last night Fellas was a Tungsten arm Odoyle game
once again, because the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Angels
in Anaheim and ten innings, nine to six, despite the
Angels turning their first triple play in twenty six years,
and show Hey O'tani hitting a grand slam his forty

(01:50:34):
third home run of the season, and Tungsten arm Odoyle
once again lives. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins hit five home
runs and an eleven to three win over the Dodgers
in LA, breaking their eleven game wedding streak. The San
Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks four, and I think
is the Padres scored four in the bottom of the eighth,
including a two run home run by Fernando Tatist Junior,

(01:50:55):
whose twentieth of the season. NFL preseason Friday Night, Atlanta's
Young Wayku kicked the game tying forty five yard field
goal with two seconds to play, as the Falcons and
Cincinnati Bengals finished under thirteen to thirteen tie. Falcons quarterback
Desmond Ritter completed seven of nine for eighty yards. He
had an interception that was off a deflected pass. Giants

(01:51:15):
over the Carolina Panthers twenty one to nineteen. Bryce Young
completed three of six for thirty five yards. Giants starter
Daniel Jones completed eight of nine for sixty nine yards
and a touchdown. Fellows, I'm gonna go catch up on
my nineteen twenty one Akron groomsman statistics back to you.

Speaker 3 (01:51:34):
Well, yeah, let me let us know how that goes.
I low, not finding much to be honest, good luck,
fair enough.

Speaker 4 (01:51:43):
It is Fox Sports Radios comd Down to Kickoff presented
by Bett MGM. You know what's wild with the Carolina
Panthers last night against the Giants, and Ilo just brought
that up at the tail end of his update.

Speaker 3 (01:51:55):
If you think about Bryce.

Speaker 4 (01:51:56):
Young, who took a few hits, took a few hits undersized.
We've talked about the frame, will durability be a question?
You know what is super lame for any NFL team
is when they think they've addressed a position and now
they're uncertain if they have or not. Because if you

(01:52:16):
look at Ikeam Ikwanu, he was the sixth overall pick
last year, and Ikey he allowed a couple of hits
on Bryce Young right there. And now make sure you
understand what I'm saying. Just because kpon Thibodeau is giving
him the business doesn't mean that Ikwanu is a complete bust.
I'm not saying he is, but I'm just saying you

(01:52:39):
tend to think, hey, we took our left tackle sixth overall. Boom,
We got that taken care of, you know, and all
of a sudden, there are teams that circle back and
they say, oh gosh, we didn't exactly check that box,
as it turns out, when we used a premium pick
at this non quarterback spot. And I'm curious if Carolina,

(01:53:00):
if they have their left tackle of the future. Wets
talk about franchise quarterbacks. You can have franchise players at
other positions too. Left tackle is one of them. We
just saw Joe Thomas go into the Hall of Fame.
But if you have something that's closer to the opposite,
you're screwed right there, especially when you have an undersized quarterback.

Speaker 6 (01:53:19):
Yeah, you better hope he figures it out quick, because
that is exactly what you're picking when you're picking in
the top ten of the NFL draft.

Speaker 5 (01:53:27):
Is an immediate fix.

Speaker 6 (01:53:29):
Is somebody who is going to replace anybody at that
position in the arguably top twenty of the NFL and
perform just as good or better. That's the type of
player you're drafting in the top ten, or hopefully drafting
in the top ten.

Speaker 5 (01:53:45):
Otherwise, trade down, trade down.

Speaker 6 (01:53:49):
Because there is no reason to be selecting in the
top ten if you don't have firm belief that the
player you're taking is going to be a franchise shifting player,
whether he plays edge, or he plays quarterback, or he
plays running back, or he plays left tackle, you better
be certain. So yeah, yeah, in Carolina right now, that
offensive line coach is getting called into a lot of

(01:54:11):
meetings with the brass and they're saying, hey, where we're
Where are we at? Because I mean clock's ticking, Bud.
We need to make sure that this guy protects the
blind side because Young's back there a getting fired on
in the preseason and and we're counting on him too
this upcoming year.

Speaker 5 (01:54:28):
So Carolina's got.

Speaker 6 (01:54:30):
Some work to do, and and overall across the NFL.
I don't want to specifically point out Carolina because this
is gonna happen with a lot of teams because it's
hard to select playmakers, game game changers, franchise shifting players.

Speaker 5 (01:54:46):
It's difficult.

Speaker 6 (01:54:47):
And so the hit rate is something hovering around forty
five percent in the first round. I mean, so that
means that the odds are stacked against you, that fifty
five percent of these players taking in the first round
aren't go to be that And so I mean we're
getting down to the nitty gritty here in training camp time,
in preseason.

Speaker 3 (01:55:07):
It's gonna be a long year for Bryce Young. Guys.

Speaker 7 (01:55:09):
Yeah, that doesn't mean it's gonna be a long career
for Bryce Young, but this season will be very difficult
for him. And the numbers on IK last year were
not good. I mean, he's I'm looking at the Pro
Football Focus blocking grades, he's forty second out of one
hundred and something tackles on Pro Football Focus's pass blocking

(01:55:32):
grade list. So he's already let's call him average mid
level in terms of the grades last year, and now
you're supposed to take a step forward and you got
a rookie quarterback, and it's gonna be a tough year.
I think Frank Reich will help. I think the way
that that offense is designed to get Bryce Young into
a quick decision will help, because from all accounts, he's

(01:55:56):
the quickest and smartest decision maker that we've seen come
through the college foot ball ranks in the last i
don't know, one hundred years since Tungsten Armor the third
maybe was roaming the diamond in the baseball world. But
it's going to be a very long year for him
because physically, I think it's fair to say that he's
not a first round or you know, a number one pick.
Like physically, I think he's probably more like a third

(01:56:18):
or fourth developmental kind of prospect. But mentally is where
he makes just leaps and bounds better decisions than every
other quarterback I think in his class, and that's why
he was drafted first overall, but I think physically it's
fair to say he's going to have a really tough year.

Speaker 4 (01:56:33):
So it's going to be a long year for Bryce Young.
But Anthony Richardson with Lin it's going.

Speaker 3 (01:56:37):
To be a good year. It's going to a long
year for him to So let me rephrase that.

Speaker 7 (01:56:42):
I don't think there's a rookie quarterback in this class
that's gonna all of a sudden be like Wow, Man,
that's the guy right away out of the gate, hit
the hit the ground running. This is a very difficult
quarterback class because I think the teams they're going to
are all very flawed, very flawed.

Speaker 4 (01:56:58):
Okay, betting before betting is on the way, Okay, we
gotta have the stakes of this Sam Howel v Anthony
Richardson twenty twenty three Showdown. So we'll come up at
the stakes and then we'll get you our picks of
the day. Right around the corner, We've got rich Orenberger,
Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst, I'm

(01:57:20):
Brian no gambling betting picks.

Speaker 3 (01:57:24):
We got all of it right around the corner.

Speaker 4 (01:57:26):
It is Fox Sports Radios count Down to Kickoff. We're
back again, presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios.
Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM. We're brought to
you by Progressive Insurance. Progressive makes bundling easy and Affordable'll
get a multi policy discount by combining your motorcycle, r V, boat,
ATV and more all your protection in one place. Bundle

(01:57:49):
and save at Progressive dot Com. Props to the crew.
Tremendous job by Bo Benson, our trusted producer, Iowa Sam
technical producer extraordinary of course, Isaac Low and Cron on
the updates, Top of the Hour, Up on game, LaVar Arrington, TJ. Hushman, Zada, Plaxico, Burus.
You're in great hands as we march closer and closer

(01:58:11):
to the football season, that is for sure.

Speaker 3 (01:58:14):
Let's dive into this.

Speaker 1 (01:58:19):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 3 (01:58:21):
All right, we wait to have a pick for you today.
Jared will start with you. What do you have your
eyes on?

Speaker 7 (01:58:25):
Yeah, not gonna go crazy here with any football. This
will be the last week I'll give you guys a
baseball pick, but I will go no run first inning.

Speaker 3 (01:58:34):
Tampa Bay LAA. Remember they're playing double headers all on
the West coast today because the hurricane. So this is
the first game of the double header. It starts in
about two hours.

Speaker 7 (01:58:44):
Raise Angels, Glass now still sat no run first inning
to start today.

Speaker 6 (01:58:49):
Okay, I'm up next, and I'm gonna get myself a
little bit ready for rapid fire during the regular season.
So we go three straight, real quick, all totals, all unders.
First up, Steelers hosting the Bills. The number is forty
two and a half under. Next Dolphins, Texans total thirty
eight and a half under. Lastly, Titans play the Vikings

(01:59:13):
in Minnesota thirty eight and a half as well under.

Speaker 5 (01:59:15):
Let's go.

Speaker 3 (01:59:16):
Wow, Lauren, your mid season form already. I like that.

Speaker 1 (01:59:20):
Yeah, thanks guys.

Speaker 4 (01:59:22):
Okay, this might be the last baseball week now that
we're so close to the football season.

Speaker 3 (01:59:27):
I'm loving that.

Speaker 4 (01:59:29):
I'm gonna say it's a stinky line. The Braves have
been tremendous, but you know they're only minus one twenty favorites.

Speaker 5 (01:59:37):
Here.

Speaker 4 (01:59:37):
We got Logan web on the mound for the Giants.
That is a loaded Braves lineup. I'm living dangerously. I'm
going Giants outright today. Minus one on two is what
I have my eye on.

Speaker 3 (01:59:47):
Let's get into this next.

Speaker 1 (01:59:51):
This is the best play of the days.

Speaker 3 (01:59:56):
All right, Jared, what are you thinking here?

Speaker 5 (01:59:58):
Man?

Speaker 7 (01:59:59):
Well, this is our first so this is like our
preseason with these picks and these preseason games and the
baseball picks, like this is the appetizer. We will officially
start keeping track of all of our football picks, our
regular season football picks, when the regular season starts next week.
So don't take this with too much champion this because

(02:00:19):
let's be honest, it's the preseason. I have no idea
who's going to show up, but I think the Jets
are very motivated to win in the preseason based on
the two games that I've seen so far, and they
face the Bucks tonight, and I just I don't really
love anything happening with Tampa Bay this offseason and now
Baker Mayfield dealing with this, you know, financial fraud story
that Isaac told us about during the updates. So I'm

(02:00:42):
taking the Jets laying three and a half points tonight
against the Bucks at home.

Speaker 3 (02:00:48):
I don't know how much we're gonna see, if at all,
of Aaron Rodgers. I don't care. Zach Wilson's looked okay,
But again, don't.

Speaker 5 (02:00:53):
Go crazy here. It's the preseason, but.

Speaker 3 (02:00:55):
I like the Jets side.

Speaker 4 (02:00:56):
Okay, So on the Fox Sports Radio twitter feed, I've
been quoted saying Sam Howell is gonna be better. It's
gonna do better than Anthony Richardson. Not in twenty twenty three,
because some of my rate it and they like, what
is that specifically this year? So here's the bet I
have proposed for you guys, minimum eight starts passer rating.

Speaker 3 (02:01:16):
I say howls is better. Five hundred bucks apiece.

Speaker 6 (02:01:19):
You in whoa, whoa whoa passer ratings?

Speaker 3 (02:01:23):
No for this pheno oh, We'll circle back next week

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