Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness football?

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Fans?

Speaker 3 (00:04):
Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation, Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Presented by.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
The gig of Sportsbook.

Speaker 3 (00:18):
We're setting you up with the information you need to
watch your team win.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
We're here to break it all down.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
Look, this is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented
by bett emg Appter. No, we're lying from your tailgate.
Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Oh, good morning, welcome in. Get y'all set for a
full day of college football. And uh, you know on
the text thread last night saw a little bit of
the road dog, Rich Hornberger and Jared Smith breaking bread
making bets. What was that on the Tyson fight last night?

(01:06):
What was going on?

Speaker 4 (01:08):
That was here live in Las Vegas where I'm broadcasting
from this morning ahead of San Diego State UNLVL on
the call for that game later on tonight here in Vegas.
But you always come a day or only when you
go to Vegas, especially when there's a Mike Tyson fight.
And I got in the Uber car and I said,

(01:28):
to the driver, I go, hey, bring me to the
Circus sports Book. And also I said, bring me to
the Circus sports book. We're gonna watch the Tyson fight,
I said. And also it's nineteen ninety seven. I don't
know what I'm doing with myself. And that's where me
and Jared Smith linked up. And that was a good environment. Jared,
what a time to be alive.

Speaker 5 (01:48):
I mean we we honestly, and I know the fight
was a dud. It was a total dud. And even
Paul admitted afterwards he had to carry Tyson to the
middle rounds.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
And then let's just give Mike the benefit of the doubt.
Fifty eight years old.

Speaker 5 (02:01):
But the build up to that fight and the actual
fanfare of the fight itself before it started and before
you can kind of realize that, I don't think, really
Mike's got the legs tonight. But the buzz I had
never I'm I'm in the sports book all the time.
I don't think I've seen the buzz like that for
an NFL playoff game. I've never to be fair, I've

(02:24):
never been there for a Super Bowl, but I've been
there for Championship weekend. AFC Anti championship weekend. I've been
there for a college football championship. The buzz outdid it
for those two events. How crazy is that?

Speaker 1 (02:35):
I'll tell you what, man, it's a flashback because I
love that word, Jared. And you think about athletes that
generated the most buzz throughout the years, Tyson has got
to be on the short list there. I will never forget,
you know, scraping together like five bucks per person to
watch a Tyson fight on the most horrible TV ever imaginable.

(02:58):
There was just an election tricity to his fights. And
you got a little bit of that last night. Yeah,
leading up and then it was like around and two
rounds and three rounds and you're like, yeah, by the
third round, you knew he had no shot. Yeah, you knew.
You was just like, I don't know, he's got the legs.
I'll tell you what. It was a great reminder to

(03:19):
not buy in to ten second highlight clips. You're right, like,
remember seeing there was a Tyson highlight clip months and
months ago where he's just sort of like shadow boxing someone. Yeah,
and he looked fast and violent and you're like, holy cow.
And then you saw him last night and you were
like that was not the same guy. Like I've seen

(03:41):
Ben Simmons drain three after three after three in an
NBA off season open gym run or something like that.
Don't believe the highlight videos at all, man, They lie
to you.

Speaker 2 (03:53):
You know. And and here's the thing.

Speaker 4 (03:56):
And I think maybe all four of us who were
down there on the or at the sports book, I
had my broadcast team with me. Jared met up with us,
and we're all standing there in in aus you know,
like I would say, disbelief is the right word. I mean,
in awe of the spectacle of the thing. Obviously disappointed
with the way the fight went. But Father Time is undefeated.

(04:20):
That is the reality of all sports. So whether we're
talking about you know, Brett Farv or Aaron Rodgers or
you know, shoot Aaron Donald.

Speaker 2 (04:29):
He was feeling to catch up to him.

Speaker 4 (04:31):
You know, football players, basketball players, Lebron James.

Speaker 2 (04:36):
He seems ageless until one day he won't anymore.

Speaker 4 (04:39):
You know, Michael Jordan happened to him. You know, there
comes a time where where Father Time comes for us all.
And look, I don't know what I was expecting at
fifty eight years old.

Speaker 2 (04:51):
I know that based on some of the bets.

Speaker 4 (04:54):
That I placed the street bets on Tyson in the
second Tyson in the sixth sit in they like I
was thinking, like, maybe there's the one punch left in
the fifty eight year old monster in the ring.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
And I may have been deluded. I may have been
buying the hype.

Speaker 4 (05:13):
I will say this though, Christmas afternoon is never as
good as Christmas morning, right, the anticipation of the super Bowl,
the anticipation of Christmas morning, the anticipation of the Tyson fight.
In my brain, that is what you're selling. And credit
to Jake Paul and Mike Tyson. They promoted the heck

(05:35):
out of this fight and it worked. Everybody tuned in,
they crashed Netflix. It was a spectacle.

Speaker 5 (05:42):
And the women's boxing match that was that was the
real Taylor Serrano. That match was unbelievable. So I think
this fight won't bring back boxing to what it was,
But for a moment in time, you had both generations, right,

(06:03):
the Paul generation, the young YouTube generation, the millennials, and
the older generation with Tyson. Guys that are you know
my age around late thirties, early forties. I used to
watch them grow up. Fifties, you had both of those
generations come together and like enjoy this moment.

Speaker 1 (06:20):
It was like it was.

Speaker 5 (06:21):
Literally I tweeted it out, I don't want to get political,
make boxing great again, Like honestly, it felt like that
kind of moment.

Speaker 2 (06:27):
But then.

Speaker 5 (06:29):
Then the fight started and you reality set in that
you're like, yeah, this is.

Speaker 1 (06:34):
A fifty eight year old man trying to fight someone
in his prime.

Speaker 5 (06:36):
Like he's just he doesn't have a physical chance to
hold up over time. And I think that's where you're like, yeah,
if anyone who bet Tyson probably early on was like
I don't know if this.

Speaker 1 (06:47):
Is the right side. It's such a bad feeling, whether
it's football, back whatever, whatever, and you see right away
you're like, I'm on the run.

Speaker 5 (06:56):
I mean there were many times in many different sports
last night I kind of abstained from this one.

Speaker 1 (07:01):
I had a buddy that was kind of getting on
both sides of it.

Speaker 2 (07:03):
But it was fun.

Speaker 1 (07:04):
It was fun. It was a fun night real quick.
The last thing I'll mention we'll get to college football
is I don't know what happened. You mentioned it rich
with crashing Netflix. I don't know if it was just
backed up and it wasn't quite live, but right before
the fight, I glanced at my phone for something totally unrelated.
There's an update. Jake Paul defeats Mike Tyson right before

(07:29):
I'm watching them. Why, I'm like, what just happened? So
I just tried to be quiet and didn't ruin it
for anybody else, you know, But that was crazy.

Speaker 5 (07:40):
I'll tell you. It's freaking out right now. How about
the NFL? They got a game on Netflix soon.

Speaker 1 (07:44):
Uh? Yeah, that's right, they have two of them. I think.

Speaker 5 (07:46):
Oh man, can you imagine if that happens during an NFL.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
Oh yeah, and we're not talking quite the same. What
was like one hundred and twenty million last night, We're
gonna get around twenty twenty five something like that for
the NFL. Their numbers are really healthy. But uh, they
they should be okay. Hopefully they'll be okay. But during
an NFL playoff game. Let me throw some I've got

(08:10):
some hard hitting college football questions for you today. Okay,
just get prepared. Next hour, we just ramp it up.
But let's start with this one. If you look at
the college football playoff rankings, you see Indiana at ten
and oh and their number five you see by you
at nine and nine, and O they're number six. So
will either neither or both? I you and B why

(08:34):
you make the playoffs? Huh? If you gays inside the
crystal ball? What do you see there? Guys?

Speaker 4 (08:40):
I would say both. I would say both, but I
would say in order for that to be true, the
safest path is both remain undefeated.

Speaker 2 (08:48):
I don't know if.

Speaker 4 (08:49):
That's possible, but as it stands right now, if the
records clean, there is no argument that could keep two
FBS football teams who are undefeated out of the playoff.
I just I don't know if it's possible to come
up with a good enough argument that makes enough sense

(09:10):
to enough people. Because remember the CFP, as much as
it is a ranking, it's also a barometer of the
emotions of the college football fan because you want to
make sure that you have the matchups that the people
want to see. And so if there's enough support behind
the Koogs and the Hoosiers, you got to make sure

(09:32):
they're in because if you don't, you can have a
big old mess in your hands in terms of you know,
bad press heading into the opening round of the postseason.
And nobody wants that. They want this thing to work
this is a made for TV bracket. Let's remember that.
You know, there's still better ways to find out who's
your national championship. This is just the best way in

(09:54):
the short term to make the most amount of money
on television. So to be respectful of what this is
all about in the first point, which is to make
all of these networks as much money as possible by
giving the matchups that the public wants to see. Now,
I don't know if the Hoosiers have an enormous population

(10:15):
of fans across the nation, I would say I would
call that unlikely at best, or the Cougars for that matter.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
But I will say this, it'll rub.

Speaker 4 (10:23):
A lot of college football fan purest traditionalists and also
even kind of passer buyers really the wrong way.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
If you don't have undefeated teams in the postseason.

Speaker 1 (10:35):
Yeah, we can't have that.

Speaker 5 (10:37):
If BYU and Indiana are both undefeated, they have to be in,
and they will be.

Speaker 1 (10:41):
I think the key is right.

Speaker 5 (10:43):
We talked about this last week, and I think this
is going to be the major talking point of the
next two to three weeks.

Speaker 1 (10:49):
Quality losses over quality wins.

Speaker 5 (10:52):
The problem is BYU doesn't play anybody, so every loss
they sustain will be a non quality loss, especially if
they get beat handily in one of these games against
Kansas or Arizona State or Houston. If they lose one
of those games, that counts as like two losses. Same
thing for Indiana because they haven't played anybody. Now they
will play Ohio State. But if they lose by thirty

(11:15):
and Penn State loses by what was it for that
or seven? Whatever the score line was, it was tit
was one score game, that will be the difference between
the two teams. Like right now, Penn State is ahead
of Indiana solely off of a name recognition, and b
the expectation that Ohio States win over Indiana will be

(11:38):
by a wider margin than what they beat Penn State by.
And I know that's weird because the Penn State or
the committee shouldn't be projecting that, But that's I think
the reason why you're seeing Indiana with no losses behind
Penn State and BYU with no losses behind Penn State,
and the rankings. I know they're ahead in the bracket,
but the actual rankings themselves they're lower. So I think

(12:00):
it's all about focusing on the losses. I know that's weird.
Usually we're looking for wins, but I think because of
the format this year, it's kind of been reversed.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
Well, yeah, listen, IU and BYU, they've played nobody. It's
like the Jim harbought who's got it better than us? Nobody? Nobody,
they've played no One. But you're right, Jared and Rich
you alluded to this.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
IU.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
They are at Ohio State next week. And that's the
interesting thing to me is how do they play? Is
it a respectable loss? If it is a loss, and
most people are expecting at least a loss, but how
bad is it? Because what was it the old Bob
Seeger song for the truck commercial, lack a rock? Are
they gonna sink like a rock if they lose by

(12:49):
twenty one? Or you know what I'm saying. And I
also think recency bias matters because I'm looking at these rankings.
It's a great example Notre Dame and Miami. Think about
this as it applies to Indiana. If Indiana suffers a
bad loss lately, how much does that affect them in
the rankings. If you look at Notre Dame, their second game,

(13:11):
they lost to Northern Illinois. Okay, they're ranked number eight
right now, Miami lost last week to Georgia Tech, they're
ranked number nine. If you flip that, do you really
think if Miami lost in game two and Notre Dame
just lost last week, do you think that you know,

(13:33):
Notre Dame is still ranked higher after losing last week
to Northern Illinois right compared to Miami. Yeah, in game two,
there's no chance whatsoever. So the recency bias does matter.
And that's why I wonder if IU gets trucked, how
bad does that hurt them? Also with BYU, look man

(13:55):
against Kansas and at Arizona State, that is not you
don't just write and w w No, I don't know
if they're gonna make I'm gonna go either. I'm gonna
say one of them makes it. I'm not convinced that.

Speaker 4 (14:10):
And you know what, I was leaning more towards that
mine was qualified with a big if you know, and
the if is they stay undefeated, because I think that
guarantees it.

Speaker 2 (14:19):
Now the butt.

Speaker 4 (14:21):
You know, if I'm going to switch it to the
other side, but if Indiana has a close loss to
Ohio State, if BYU falls into the trap of believing
in themselves too much and they lose to Kansas or ASU,
all of a sudden, we're having a completely different conversation
because one loss will be far more detrimental to those
two teams based on strength of schedule and when those

(14:44):
losses occurred. Because remember, timing is everything in life. It's
as true and college football, when you lose is almost
as important as who you lose too.

Speaker 2 (14:56):
And so I completely agree with what you just said, Brian.

Speaker 5 (14:59):
Yep, I think when you look at this field too.
First of all, please please committee members, if we do
get Indiana and please send Alabama to Bloomington for a
December game. That would be so freaking awesome. That would
be the best playoff game ever. I'd love to see
Alabama go to State College too, but if they're not
going to go to State College, please send them to Bloomington.

Speaker 1 (15:22):
Just the dynamics of this.

Speaker 5 (15:23):
And I've had a lot of people ask me, oh,
who's like who's got the inside track?

Speaker 1 (15:27):
Like which you bet even the top teams. I need
to see the bracket.

Speaker 5 (15:32):
I need to see who you play, when you play them,
where you play them. I think the matchups in this
college fotball playoff are going to be fascinating, and I
think my opinion on who will win might change dramatically,
not based off of who you beat in the conference
championship games, not based off of anything else except for
where you're seated, who you play, and when you play them.

(15:56):
Like to me, that is paramount here. Like you might
have Alabama have to go to Indiana or State College
Pennsylvania in the middle of December and play a college
football game. You're telling me that won't change your opinion
on that game regardless of how Penn State or Indiana
finished the season. Just the location and the time that

(16:18):
you play that game changes your opinion on everything. So
I think that I mean the next two weeks and
then also we talked about it the conference championship games
and teams that might be penalized for just playing in
the conference championship game, like and losing big in that game,
whereas it might benefit some teams, especially in the SEC,

(16:39):
to not even play in their conference championship game. That is,
there are some crazy stipulations that might kind of permetate
themselves over the next two weeks. But again, we just
have to kind of let the process play out.

Speaker 1 (16:50):
Well, yeah, it's gonna be a lot of fun as
we get down to it, and some of the arguments
at the end. What if you have a one loss
IU team that got blasted by Ohio State and you
Georgia team that's lost two games, close really strongly. You
know there's gonna be So.

Speaker 5 (17:05):
Georgia loses three games and their three losses are Bama.

Speaker 1 (17:10):
Who do they play today? Omes and Tennessee.

Speaker 5 (17:13):
Imagine that number one drink to schedule. Georgia with three
losses doesn't get in, an Indiana with one lost Ohio
State no quality wins gets in.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
That's crazy to me.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
It could be exactly what we're looking at. We'll see
what they might not have three losses. Huh, I don't
think they. The plot thickens right there. Hey, it's a
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(17:42):
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if that bet loses. We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State
All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian now
coming up next. We got a lot of top ten
teams on the road today. How many home dogs will

(18:07):
be barking? We'll look into that. That was very successful
for Rich last week. Huh betting these home dogs. We'll
see if he's got his eye on a couple of
home dogs here today. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 1 (18:32):
It is Fox Sports Radios count Down to Kickoff presented
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BETMGM will return one hundred percent of their stakeback in

(18:54):
cash it's funny you can tell them getting old two reasons. Okay,
the song we just heard where, I'm like, you know,
that'd be a pretty good karaoke choice right there, you know,
with that and the other thing watching Tyson last night,
I'm like, I'm not that far away from fifty eight,
you know.

Speaker 5 (19:12):
Oh stop, Brian, come on, no, you got a long
way to go.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, not.

Speaker 1 (19:18):
That not that long.

Speaker 5 (19:20):
Many years of sparring with us in the verbal ring
before you.

Speaker 1 (19:28):
You might not look as old verbally sparring, physically sparring,
right like we mix it up in the ring here. Yeah,
that is true. Okay, So we got a lot of
top ten teams on the road here. So there are
five teams in the top ten that are on the road.
So I'm curious how many home teams you think will cover? Okay,

(19:52):
if we go through these real quickly. Number one Oregon
is at Wisconsin. Wisconsin is a thirteen and a half
point on underdog. Okay. Number two Ohio State they're at
Northwestern the Wildcats. They are twenty eight and a half
point home dogs. Number three Texas is at Arkansas the
Razorbacks plus twelve and a half your number four Nitney

(20:16):
Lyons guys at Purdue Perdue pe U plus twenty nine
and a half. And then the last top ten team
on the road is number seven Tennessee. They are at
number twelve. Georgia. Georgia is favored by eight and a half.
I tell a lot of teams, a lot of numbers,
but five top ten teams on the road. How many

(20:37):
of those home teams do you think cover here?

Speaker 4 (20:39):
Rich Arkansaw feels like a pick. Telon Green was out
in the first half. When he was on the field,
they were scoring points. Texas, even though they're coming off
of a home throttling of Florida, I feel like they're
going through. Actually are the numbers probably back it up.
This is probably the worst defensive wretch of their season,

(21:01):
so I could see that being a closer game. I'm
counting on a Texas win, but obviously an Arkansas cover
is what we're looking for here at home, and then
Georgia Georgia covering the spread. Always difficult, uh to face
Uh to face the Bulldogs in their home turf. Kirby
Smart is really sort of the center piece and everything

(21:22):
else orbits around him. I think he's a really good
football coach, and I think anytime you're playing the Dogs
at home, you're in for an absolute war. So give
me Georgia covering, give me Arkansas covering. Of those two,
I agree, I'm mom both.

Speaker 5 (21:37):
I gave out Georgia yesterday for our Friday bet MGM video,
which by the way, that pick is one three in
a row. Not to toot the horn here, but I
am gonna be on Georgia later.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
Not too I thought I heard a little.

Speaker 5 (21:50):
Yeah, that was a little too to actually actually be fair, now,
I actually that was that was jackbody was barking.

Speaker 1 (21:55):
It was we wanted some breakfast. You should though, you
should pat yourself on the back very nicely.

Speaker 2 (21:59):
It's it.

Speaker 5 (22:00):
It's been a good run the last so like, yeah,
you know, I mean, you've been doing the picks for
a couple of years now. You just have to weather
the storm of the bad times because if you're good
at this, and if you put in the work like
we do every week, it's gonna turn Arkansas.

Speaker 1 (22:14):
I love that spot. I love Arkansas off the bye.

Speaker 5 (22:16):
I know we'll touch on that game a little bit
later in the show, but that is a good spot.
Right when we handicap the situational spots. Texas is kind
of you go look at Texas resume, I said. One
of my Penn State buddy sent me a tweet yesterday
comparing Texas's resume to Penn State's resume.

Speaker 1 (22:32):
I be honest, there ain't a whole lot difference between
those two resumes.

Speaker 5 (22:34):
In fact, pet State's resume might be slightly better, even
though they do have the loss to Ohio State.

Speaker 1 (22:40):
So I think Arkansas is in a good spot.

Speaker 5 (22:41):
Man, Oregon, I've been and rich you called it last week,
fade and Oregon. They weren't gonna lose that game, but
they don't have that extra gear to cover right now
because just like Oregon, just like Ohio State, they don't need.

Speaker 1 (22:54):
The style points.

Speaker 5 (22:55):
And that's where it scares me, whereas a team like
Penn State maybe kind of needs them.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
A little bit.

Speaker 5 (22:59):
But I'll tell what if Penn State loses to Purdue,
Oh God, smother me in in the creamery ice cream
and just bury me underneath the knitting the line in.

Speaker 1 (23:09):
I don't even want to be alive past this week.

Speaker 5 (23:13):
If Penn State can't beat Purdue and ruin I mean,
that would ruin their playoff hopes, And I don't love
that they've already started selling tickets for the playoffs either.

Speaker 1 (23:21):
Don't get me started on that. But man that I
hear you on the Arkansas spot. But man, Arkansas's O
line is rough and their secondary is very rough right now.
And styles make fights, you know, and against texasts like
man Quinn, yours could be throwing it around like crazy.
You need Taylin Green to be running around and escaping

(23:43):
a bad offensive line, which he can do when healthy.
But that's the question is is he going to be
healthy enough. The other top ten team, number one Oregon.
We've seen Oregon. They just sort of coast in. They're
not looking at dump truck you would win by six touchdowns.
They're trying to get to the finish line ahead. And yeah,

(24:04):
they've bitten some betters at times this season. They've helped
them when they score late touchdowns against Michigan, so it's
gone both ways. But I don't know about you guys.
This line feels a little bit light, which makes me
like cautious of backing Oregon, where I'm like, whoa, WHOA
what thirteen and a half that seems a little bit
light over here, And Just when I'm thinking about betting

(24:26):
the dog, I'm like, oh, but wait, it's Wisconsin.

Speaker 4 (24:31):
Yeh's that's what scared me off of Oregon, or I
should say, Wisconsin hosting Oregon, Northwestern hosting Ohio State, and
Purdue hosting Penn State. It you know, you can make
all the arguments we want about what those teams who
are in the cat Birds he really need heading into
those visiting locations, But what it comes down to, is Wisconsin,

(24:54):
Northwestern or Purdue really good enough to hang with that
level of competition? And my brain tells me no, Arkansas,
who are inconsistent but tricky to prepare for.

Speaker 2 (25:04):
They give me pause.

Speaker 4 (25:06):
And the only other team that as I'm reading the list,
I go, oh, that's another little bugaboo. There is Georgia,
so so the like I Purdue. Let's put it this
way to back up what Jared said, if Purdue even
covers this spread, I will be amazed.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
They have been.

Speaker 4 (25:22):
They have been getting smashed, smashed throughout the course of
this season.

Speaker 2 (25:28):
It ain't Purdue, it's per Domet this year.

Speaker 1 (25:30):
Per don't.

Speaker 5 (25:31):
I don't want to be on the show next week.
If Purdue wins, I'm.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
Calling out sick prematurely. That's better than not wanting to
be alive. Okay, I agree, we cup so close. We've
come so far, and we were talking about it last
night on the ride back.

Speaker 5 (25:47):
Like the last time Penn States had a top five,
like usually their top.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
Ten, and that's kind of like the barrier.

Speaker 5 (25:54):
The last time they were top five was was my
sophomore year, Rich's first year playing, you know, after his
retro and they they had they game so close. We're
so close to getting into the playoff. Don't ruin it
to Purdue now. They're gonna beat Purdue handily because they
usually beat what does James Franklin do, They beat the
teams they're supposed to beat. They're gonna win this game today,

(26:16):
the Texas Arkansas game. I like your point about the
Arkansas defense. I actually think that is where this game
will be won. If you go back and watch Arkansas's
biggest win of the year against Tennessee, Travis Williams did
a really good job holding that Tennessee offense down.

Speaker 1 (26:31):
Travis Williams the defensive coordinator for Arkansas.

Speaker 5 (26:33):
That scares me a lot because Texas has this ability.
We've talked about their offense it's like a torture chamber.
With Isaiah Bond back healthy, they will stretch the field.
Arkansas what they're gonna do, and this is what they've
done in prior games. This is how they kept Tennessee
at bay. They made they frustrated Tennessee. They backed off
and they said, you are going to go ten to
twelve plays. That is the only way you are going

(26:55):
to score touchdown. We are not gonna let you hit
the explosive. So if they do that, you give you
was a chance to get into a rhythm. But also
you make Quinn Yewers and that offense methodically march down
the field and on the road with a week of
extra prep, that opens up the mistake to turnover the penalty.
I think that's the path for Arkansas today.

Speaker 1 (27:14):
We know tailor.

Speaker 5 (27:15):
I think Arkansas's offense will have success against this Texas defense.
I think the key is can Arkansas get one stop right?
Can you get the one crazy play turnover to flip
the field and get the momentum and get the home
crowd on your side.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
That's where Arkansas I think is live today.

Speaker 2 (27:30):
Man.

Speaker 1 (27:30):
That's the thing is you just go back a couple
of weeks ago, and you look at Arkansas against Old Miss,
if you look at the box score, it's gonna make
you pause if you're thinking about going Arkansas plus twelve
and a half. I'm not saying it makes you back
off completely, but it's gonna make you pause because Jackson
Dart get this twenty five for thirty one for five

(27:53):
hundred and fifty five hundred and fifteen passing game. They
didn't play off coverage in that game. Yeah, how about
Jordan Watkins? How many bombs? Did Jordan Watkins catch? Eight
catches for two fifty four and five touchdowns? That's what
he did happen And you're thinking, okay, well, man, if
you have a receiver go off for that much, you're

(28:13):
gonna see a couple of guys, all right, two catches
for thirty three yards. No, not that's the case. Kayden
Lee five catches for a buck twenty seven and Dakwan
Wright nine catches for ninety nine yards and two touchdowns.
They had three dudes put up huge numbers. So that's
my question is can Arkansas, like you said, Jared, can

(28:34):
they at least make their opponent be methodical and not
go bomb city left and right in these chunk plays.
That's all. It was a couple of weeks ago against
Old Miss.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (28:44):
And here's the problem for uh, here's the problem for
Texas is since they are going through a little bit
of a rough stretch defensively, you know, to give Arkansas
a little love here, they're going against a unbelievably successful
rushing attack from our Arkansas. So if Arkansas finds a
way they get a little tricky, a little dynamic to

(29:04):
start the game. Special teams helps out field position wise,
and they get an early lead and Texas can't stop
their run game. They have Jackson and Green out of
that backfield. Jackson obviously the belcow out of the backfield
at the running back position. Green the mobile quarterback. He's
the second leading rusher. Jackson is just about to crest
the top ten in the nation for touchdowns scored from

(29:26):
that position. He's been really good this year. He carries
the ball for close to six yards per Carrie. They
just get it done on the ground. They find a
way to wear you down. And so if they can
get a lead and they can start playing the hey,
we're going to shorten this game on you, Texas. So

(29:46):
you're gonna have a hard time scoring a lot of points.
You just have to make sure you score when you
get the ball back. All of a sudden, we got
a ballgame on our hand. So, man, the more we
talk about it, the more of a battle it feels
like it's gonna be. I would say I would I
would settle on the side. I would side with Arkansas
with the spread. But I mean, you could you could

(30:09):
talk me into, you know, the danger zone here for Texas,
but I don't think we're gonna see that. But I
do like Arkansas with the uh with the points, getting
the points.

Speaker 5 (30:19):
I think we've reached that point in the season where
the schedule, Like you can really tell how tough teams
are based on their schedule, because we're pretty much, you know, all,
like eighty percent of the way through Arkansas.

Speaker 1 (30:31):
This is their fifth ranked opponent in six games. Yeah
like it.

Speaker 5 (30:36):
And and so when you talk about managing up in class,
what is Arkansas gonna be afraid?

Speaker 4 (30:41):
Like?

Speaker 5 (30:41):
There's no juggernaut factor here for Texas. First of all,
Texas is a newcomer to the SEC. They're coming into
a new building. They've never I don't know when the
last time they played there. I know they used to
be Southwest Conference rivals, but they haven't played there, and
really no one on this roster.

Speaker 1 (30:55):
Has ever played in that building.

Speaker 5 (30:58):
And you get this just just beleaguered Arkansas team coming off,
as you said, Brian, an absolute butt whooping, and they've
had two weeks to sit and stew.

Speaker 1 (31:08):
Over what Ole Miss did.

Speaker 5 (31:10):
I've had two weeks to sit and stew over it
because I was on Arkansas in that game and I
got my butt handed.

Speaker 1 (31:14):
To me just like they did.

Speaker 5 (31:16):
And it feels like one of those spots where if
Arkansas can catch a lead and get a play early
and just bleed the life out of what Texas does.

Speaker 1 (31:25):
Kind of like Vandy. Like go watch the Vandy game.

Speaker 5 (31:28):
Vandy did not play that well, and they were in
that game at home, and I know Vandy's home field
advantage ain't nothing like Arkansas.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
Very different vibe there in Fayetteville. So again, can they.

Speaker 5 (31:40):
Make one of those plays to tilt the momentum early,
get the crowd into it, and make Texas doubt their
belief And I think that's gonna be the key if
Ole Miss. If they do the same thing Ole Miss does,
they just throw it deep and Arkansas can't defend it. Yeah,
Texas gonna run this game, but can you get an
early momentum play to kind of tilt it and get
that crowd on your side.

Speaker 1 (32:00):
That's what I wonder too. Is last point for me
is I love the point you made Jared about being
battle tested. This has been a gauntlet that Arkansas has
faced schedule wise, and it could go one of two ways.
You could either see it where they're unfazed, they're battle tested.
They're like grizzly at this point of the season. They're
not scared of Texas or all that might be true,

(32:21):
and they're just dead tired, like they've been bumbled for
a number of weeks.

Speaker 2 (32:25):
Here.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
It's like the fight last night. If you look at
Amanda Serrano and Katie Taylor in the first round, that
fight looks a lot more crisp. It looks a lot
different than the eighth round when it's been a slugfest.
So that's what I wonder with Arkansas here today as well.
Like they're battle tested, no doubt, but how much attrition
playing that schedule in the sec have they they faced

(32:50):
and how much will it affect them today against the
number three team in the country. It can go that way.

Speaker 4 (32:55):
Also, I look at teams down the stretch of the
season in two different ways. There are certain teams who
know how to finish the season and there are certain
teams who don't. And you really don't know what you
have until you get to that point in the season.
So we're gonna see some tests here on the field
for some of these teams Penn State or Ohio State,

(33:16):
or Tennessee like you know, some Oregon, some of the
top teams in the country. We're gonna find out who's
finishers and playing on the road in conference for Texas
in a building like you pointed out, Jared, that none
of these players have been to maybe some of the
staff has ever been to in an environment that is
unique to them that they're gonna have to find a

(33:38):
way to, you know, dip their toes into and get
used to really quick in that first quarter. That's the trouble.
That's the part of the game. I'm gonna be keing
on the most if you want to, I don't know,
if you're afraid to pick a side here early on
and you want an in game bet, see if Arkansas
rushes out to an early lead, because then then all

(33:58):
of a sudden, it's going to feel like oil boy,
this is gonna be a long, hard day for Texas
because it's gonna be tough to fight back through all
of those things that we just discussed. But they can
they probably will. But arkansaw the Hogs they could keep
it close.

Speaker 5 (34:14):
Shout out to our producer, Vote Bents, and he corrected me.
They actually were there in twenty twenty one, although none
of the players on this team were probably there, but
Sark was there and the staff was there. But man,
oh man, I'm pulling up the box score from that game.
Arkansas absolutely boat raised Texas. They were up twenty ninhing
at half, Texas made a little late push. That was
the Hudson card oh Dijon Robinson Texas team from twenty one.

(34:39):
So yeah, that I'll be honest that I don't want
to say that data point has any impact on today's game,
but the fact that Sark's gone in there and they
got their butts kicked, I think that at least allows
Texas to have a little bit of Okay, we've been
here before, we can handle this. Even though again none
of the players but the coach and I'm sure some
of the coaching staff and some of the other staff

(35:01):
members certainly have been to fail before. But this used
to be This used to be a big time robbery
in the Southwest Conference.

Speaker 1 (35:07):
Man and now Hudson card is having a hard time
throwing for one hundred and thirty yards at Purdue. We
got it, We got it for another PDU reference of
the show. Yeah, accomplished, Yeah, no doubt. We've got Jared
Smith FSR, betting analyst, Rich Ornberger Penn State All American.
I'm Brian no coming up next to Parlay Platter.

Speaker 5 (35:26):
Huh.

Speaker 1 (35:27):
We'll have three most likely outright underdogs winning, maybe just
but underdogs. Nevertheless, we'll see if they're all outright money
line picks or not, and we'll pull everything together for
a bigger payout. We'll get you some picks right around
the corner. It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented
by bet MGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to

(35:47):
Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Every time you make a wager
at bet MGM, you earn BETMGM rewards points that could
be redeemed for things like bonus bets or converted to
MGM rewards. Points that could be used towards dining shows
and hotel rooms at over twenty MGM resorts. All right,
let's do this.

Speaker 6 (36:08):
Check this out, Arlay letter.

Speaker 1 (36:11):
Okay, welcome into the platter. We each have one selection
for you. We pull it together for a greater payout. Jared,
We'll start with you. What do you like?

Speaker 5 (36:18):
Yeah, I'll be honest, both of us are on the
same page today.

Speaker 1 (36:22):
The bet you're gonna give out is I think the
one that I'm most excited about.

Speaker 5 (36:26):
This is the one that I'm second most excited about,
and it is the Florida Gators, a home dog today
against LSU. Both of these teams are coming off. Actually,
both teams have lost two consecutive games. Florida's had a
really tough schedule with Georgia Texas. They played Tennessee recently
lost them in overtime. Now you get LSU coming off.
They're just Halaysia's loss to Alabama. They also lost to

(36:47):
A and M. I am not sold on the Garrett
nus Meyer train. I think he is kind of the
game like the prototypical game manager, and I think this
is a really tough spot on the road. We've seen
DJ Lagway upgraded available to play. I think he's going
to play. That's why this line dropped. And I think
Florida at home a very live dog. LSU doesn't have

(37:07):
much to play for anymore. The conference championship is really
slipping away. They're already Bowl eligible. I just it feels
like a good spot for the Gators at home tonight.

Speaker 4 (37:15):
Okay, I got Nebraska as touchdown dogs on the road
at USC who've lost their last three.

Speaker 2 (37:22):
Nebraska has lost their last three by an.

Speaker 4 (37:25):
Average total points of under fifteen points per loss in
those games. So they made a switch to have Holgerson
as their new offensive coordinator, famous for the air raid offense.

Speaker 1 (37:37):
Now you look at.

Speaker 4 (37:37):
Dylan Rayola, He's having a nice true freshman season, not great,
and considering is a five star recruit and a legacy
for the corn Huskers, the expectations were higher.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
This switch is to.

Speaker 4 (37:49):
Highlight what Rayola did so well in high school and
what they're trying to see as a Husker. So I
think that puts a little bit of a wrinkle into
the game plan defensively for USC. There's a lot more
to think about considering the switch at offensive coordinator. We'll
see how much the Huskers can switch up in one
week's time preparing for the Trojans. But give me the

(38:10):
Huskers on the road on the money line.

Speaker 1 (38:13):
All right, I'm gonna go with a little KU action
over here. Okay, give me KU Kansas on the road
against BYU. This BYU team is just hanging by a threat.
They should have lost last week against Utah. It was
so bad. Well who's the guy you got fined after
last Utah? Ad was like, I hate the Big twelve.

(38:36):
He's like, we got ripped do that after a game before.
I've never seen that one. Ad gets fined like forty
g's because the comments he made the official screw twelve
in the Holy War. That was rough, but Holy War. Listen, Kansas.
They present a lot of problems. It's interesting because BYU

(38:57):
has survived some of these close games that eat Oklahoma
State in like minor miracle fashion. They won last week
in minor miracle fashion as well. They're surviving KU. They've
had a bunch of one possession losses. Yep. So you
could look at it and say, hey, they're right there,
they're knocking on the door, or you could say okay,

(39:17):
so BYU wins close games and Kansas loses close games.
I don't know why you're back in Kansas. I just
think Jalen Daniels is going to present a lot of
problems for BYU, and again BYU is just aching to lose.
And I think when you get closer and closer and
closer to the finish line and you've got a zero

(39:39):
in the lost column, I mean, if you look at Kansas,
they could let everything hang out. If you look at BYU,
I think you get a little bit tighter. The closer
you get where you can see that playoff berth just
right there, you can almost reach it. I think you
get tighter in a spot like this. So I got KU.
I like it. Kansas, Florida, Nebraska on them only all

(40:01):
on the money line, fifteen to one.

Speaker 5 (40:04):
And here's the nugget on Kansas three wins, five and
a half expected wins lost by two. Tight game against
Kansas State lost Arizona State tight BYU.

Speaker 1 (40:12):
Nine wins six and a half expected. Wow, like these
are evenly match teams. It's telling. It's telling right there.
They just know it. Up next. If you love hard
hitting questions, be prepared because there's a double shot coming
right at you. Oh, good morning, less than two hours
away from kickoff here on a college football Saturday, getting

(40:35):
you all set. So it's funny. These are two hard
hitting questions, and my answer just took all the fun
out of the questions. Like I like my answer to
these questions, but it literally takes all the fun out.
So here's the first question. Which team on the outside
of the playoff right now would you bet on to

(40:58):
make the college football play right? That is pretty good,
spicy here, edit Rich, We'll start with you. Who's on
the outside looking in that you would bet on? You
would make a bet that they're going to be there.
They're going to be one of the twelve teams when
it's all said and done.

Speaker 4 (41:13):
On a Friday night. A couple of weeks back, I
was in Boise, Idaho. Some people might say, in this country,
what the hell were you doing in Boise, Idaho. I'll
tell you what I was doing. I was watching the
candidate I favor to win the Heisman, Ashton Genty. There
is no singular player in the country who has had
more of an impact on his football team this season

(41:35):
than Ashtion Genty. He's a running back. If you haven't
heard of him, I'm sure you have. He is a monster.
He is a rolling ball of Butcher knives heading downhill
out of defense. Nobody wants to touch him. Nobody can
touch him. The Boise State Broncos are my pick for
a team on the outside looking in.

Speaker 1 (41:52):
But they're in already.

Speaker 2 (41:53):
There is no way now on the CFP rankings. I
guess I'm looking at the AP polling.

Speaker 4 (41:57):
I'll give you a different team in terms of the
CFP in a second, but that that I I guess
I'm I'm getting I'm getting a little despondent with the
fact that we still even have an AP ranking set.

Speaker 2 (42:10):
Yeah, we like, why are we even doing this anymore?

Speaker 5 (42:13):
I don't know the A People and I've and we've
talked about this on the show. I think the A
People is the most meaningless thing that we've ever done
in college football. Maybe that's maybe that's an exaggeration. I'm
I apologize that's an exaggeration. But I've been convinced that
until we get the first iteration of the College Football
Playoff rankings, we should rank these teams. We should get

(42:35):
the best, the brightest odds makers into a room, YEP,
and let them rank the teams because the A people
is just a complete mess of nonsense. I think A
and M is intriguing. They're about three four to one
right now to make the playoff. And the reason why
A and M is intriguing is because they still have
everything to play for in front of them. If they

(42:56):
beat Texas in that, they're gonna beat to Mexico State
today and then I think they're gonna go on the
road and beat Alburn. And if they beat Texas in
that last game and Georgia beats Tennessee today, A and
M is in the SEC championship game, and I'll be
honest if.

Speaker 1 (43:13):
They unless they lose by a gajillion points.

Speaker 5 (43:16):
If you can't put a two loss team that plays
in the SEC championship game in the.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
Collegeable Playoff, I don't know what we're doing here.

Speaker 5 (43:25):
I honestly don't know how we exist as a universe.
If a two loss team that's playing in the toughest
conferences championship game, unless they lose by thirty in that game,
they've got to be in.

Speaker 1 (43:37):
They've got to be in. I want to give you
some crazy answer. You know where it's like Louisville and
you're like what they've got three lots. Here's the path
that you know? I think it's Georgia. They're the first
team on the outside looking in, but their path is obvious.
It's like they win today and yeah, their resume holds up.

(43:57):
Which leads to the other question, which team currently in
the playoff would you bet on to not make it?
And that to me is Tennessee. I think Georgia beats Tennessee.
Boom Georgia in boom Tennessee out.

Speaker 4 (44:12):
Yeah, I would say that's my knee jerk after after
thinking of thinking about it. Having a second here, can
I ask a question though? Because I do like chaos,
so that would have been my easy reach after the
Boise commentary.

Speaker 2 (44:26):
But how about this? Is there any path for Colorado?

Speaker 4 (44:31):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (44:31):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (44:32):
Oh yeah, so I like I like the thought process.

Speaker 4 (44:36):
Again, if you follow the money in sports, you're probably
on the right path.

Speaker 2 (44:41):
Colorado is box office. Hate him or love him?

Speaker 4 (44:44):
Deon Sanders coach Prime has made a spectacle of this
team out of Boulder.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
If if you can find.

Speaker 4 (44:52):
A way to sneak Colorado in as a low seed,
do you think that the CFP isn't gonna do it?

Speaker 1 (44:58):
I think they're gonna win the Big Twelve. I honestly
have it. I think why losing today, we already called
it in the.

Speaker 5 (45:04):
Parlay plotter and Iowa States lost already. I think Colorado
is going to be in the Big twelve title game
and then all bets are off once you get there,
you just gotta win that game.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
Yeah, they might be legitimately in there, Yeah, where you
don't have to sneak him in.

Speaker 2 (45:17):
Yeah that's right. Yeah, not as uh yeah, exactly right.

Speaker 1 (45:21):
But you're right though, Rich, I hear you. It's like
if it's you know, we're raiser thin, we're splitting hairs
between Colorado and this other team. Yeah, it's they'll give
you the chaos approach.

Speaker 2 (45:32):
Go ahead.

Speaker 5 (45:33):
Washington State is the chaos team because Washington State does
not play in a conference and they have one loss.

Speaker 1 (45:40):
And that is if.

Speaker 5 (45:42):
Every like it would need massive chaos. But if you
want to talk about a chaos team that is in
the top twenty one loss, doesn't play in a conference,
doesn't have to worry about a conference championship game, and
now they haven't, I'm really beating anybody. But you want
to talk about like the scenario where like everybody loses,

(46:03):
that's the chaos scenario. Washington State, like they haven't played,
but they had. They don't have any bad losses, right,
Like I think their one losses.

Speaker 1 (46:13):
The I forget who was I thought it was a
DC poise. That's right. Yeah, they go eleven and.

Speaker 5 (46:19):
One and they they love their one losses. The boise
and chaos ensues everywhere else.

Speaker 1 (46:23):
I think they've got a fighters chance. But I think
that's the richest point that that's a good team. Like
if it was down to Colorado and Washington State, see
that Colorado's exactly and.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
This is where chaos reigns. So say Colorado.

Speaker 4 (46:38):
Ends up in the championship game and loss, I mean
Washington State.

Speaker 2 (46:44):
No, I don't know, but I.

Speaker 5 (46:46):
Don't think the Big twelve gets two win or the
a SEC. I think the A one and done.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
Yeah, I agree with that.

Speaker 1 (46:51):
Especially if BYU loses today.

Speaker 5 (46:53):
The only case you can make for that is if
BYU and Colorado play in the Big twelve title game,
Colorado wins by a field goal and you're like, b
YU one loss, they've lost one game to Colorado all year.

Speaker 1 (47:03):
In an extra game, we put them areica.

Speaker 5 (47:05):
That's like the only scenario I see BYU and another
Big twelve team getting in.

Speaker 1 (47:09):
Is there any ACC scenario?

Speaker 6 (47:12):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (47:12):
If SMU wins, we actually no, because Miami lost. I
don't now because everyone has one loss. Yeah, I don't
think you can put a two loss a CC team in.

Speaker 1 (47:20):
You can't. You can't, you can't. Okay, So we're looking
at three max between the ACC and Big twelve max, right.

Speaker 5 (47:28):
And I'll be honest, I I don't b Yu's one.
Are they ninth eighth in the rankings?

Speaker 2 (47:33):
Like?

Speaker 1 (47:33):
I think? If they lose, they're they're out. They're gonna
lose today. Man, They're favored by two and a half
at home Kansas. Come on. The committee is like, gosh,
we gotta put IU at number five, and goodness, we
gotta put b YU at six. They are gonna drop
like rocks.

Speaker 5 (47:48):
If they lose by out if they lose today.

Speaker 1 (47:50):
Oh, this committee can't wait to drop them if they lose.

Speaker 2 (47:54):
Yeah, they got to avoid the trap.

Speaker 4 (47:56):
The Coop's gotta avoid the trap because again, that is
as much as Colorado would be chaos, it's almost like
the chaos you'd expect if BYU wins out.

Speaker 5 (48:07):
Oh my god, Yeah, if DYU wins out, so I
did the spreads today, Ohio State would be about a
sixteen seventeen point favorite ap Boys in the first round today.
How about this line, Brian, This one's for you, because
my buddy thinks Tennessee is a fraud. If Tennessee played
Notre Dame at home today, my buddy's like, hey, just
set the line at three. Make people bet Tennessee in

(48:27):
that game because Notre Dame is very live. Ole Miss
and Penn State would be a pick them in Happy
Valley and bam up minus seven and a half in Bloomington.

Speaker 1 (48:34):
Wow, interesting stuff.

Speaker 2 (48:35):
You know.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
I'm just thinking of the Big twelve if it comes
down to BYU and Colorado. We know that the College
Football Playoff Committee and you know the NC Double eight,
they're gonna be like, come on, Colorado, come on Colorado.

Speaker 2 (48:49):
Yeah, but I.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
Really wonder if the Big twelve would feel the same way.
I don't know if they would care one way or
the other. But I'll tell you what. The TV executives
they're like, come on, buffs, come on, see you listen.

Speaker 2 (49:00):
Come on to you.

Speaker 1 (49:02):
They don't want Retz laugh and BYU in there at
all when you could have Shador and Travis Hunter and
coach Prime and all that comes with it that's made
for television BYU is not. And listen any BYU fans
that are out there, they're rolling their eyes. They might
be yelling at their radios. And I get it, I
understand it. Where I'm much more resume than TV ratings.

(49:25):
It should be about who you played, who you beat.
But that's not the reality of how some of this
stuff gets sorted out.

Speaker 2 (49:31):
No, it's not.

Speaker 4 (49:32):
Look, this is as much a beauty pageant as it
is a college football ranking.

Speaker 2 (49:38):
You have to win, but you also have to promote.

Speaker 4 (49:42):
I mean, going back to the Tyson fight last night,
why did so many people watch that fight? Did they
really think that Mike Tyson had a chance or was
their nostalgia and hype and hatred towards Jake Paul And Hey,
you know a million different things thrown into the cauldron.
Set the temperature to eight hundred thousand degrees and let's

(50:04):
go have a spectacle. The teams that do the best
with that, that throw all the ingredients into the cauldron,
You turn up the heat and they still have a
serviceable season like Colorado did this year.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
You're gonna be rewarded.

Speaker 4 (50:17):
That's how this works these days. This is sports media.
It's not just sports anymore.

Speaker 5 (50:22):
I'll give you the prediction right now. Colorado's going to
the playoff. BYU loses today, and I'll be honest, looking
at BYU's resume, though, the win at SMU is looking better.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
That's aging well.

Speaker 5 (50:32):
The win against Kansas State it's aging, okay, granted that
was a weird game.

Speaker 1 (50:37):
The win at Baylor is aging. Okay.

Speaker 5 (50:39):
We'll see how Baylor fares today at West Virginia, Like,
that's probably gonna be a bowl team.

Speaker 1 (50:44):
Like, they've beaten some teams.

Speaker 5 (50:46):
That you can at least say, okay, They've at least
put themselves in a position to where if they do
make it to the Big Twelve title game, lose by
a field goal late to Colorado, they can at.

Speaker 1 (50:59):
Least make the case that they deserve to be in.

Speaker 5 (51:01):
Because I think that's gonna be the most interesting handicap
the committee has a team that loses a tight game
in the thirteenth game of the year. How much do
you downgrade them for that? Do you only downgrade them
a half of what a normal loss would be? Is
it extra if they lose by more like to me
that the conference championship dynamic this year because of the

(51:25):
expanded field is I think the most the hardest wrinkle
to iron as I kind of project this forward.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
Yeah, what's interesting to me is with BYU, they're undefeated,
but what stands out most? You know, if you're thinking
how a voter might think of them, I would argue
what stands out most? Are there close wins that probably
shouldn't have happened. The Utah game Utah ad That's what
stands out the most for that. Yeah, the Utah win

(51:55):
last week and then beating Oklahoma State. The final drive
they had I think a fourth the nine they converted,
they scored a touchdown at the very end. What's funny
to me though, is if you look at BYU compared
to Colorado a good example too. What stands out most
about Colorado season was it losing by three points at
home to Kansas State. By the way, BYU beat Kansas

(52:17):
State by twenty nine points. They beat them by twenty
nine at home, and Colorado lost to them at Colorado
And it's like, I don't know what it is with
Colorado where it's just the sizzle, it's the interest factor
it's the oh, it's like watching fireworks where you see
Colorado and it's like, oh wow, that looks like a

(52:38):
green fire where get turned to pink or purple. That
was crazy And BYU is just the dud where it's
like boom and you're like, what the hell was that?

Speaker 2 (52:46):
Well? BYU, I mean, let's let's predict.

Speaker 4 (52:49):
So BYU wins out, they they're the third highest conference champion,
they'll be the three seed. I have that right right,
They'll be waiting for the winner of like what ever
it may be, Penn State, don't miss or whoever?

Speaker 2 (53:02):
Is that? Is that what we're talking about right now?
I mean that is here's my question.

Speaker 4 (53:07):
Is that a matchup you really want to see if
there's any variance that you could make an argument for
another team out of that conference.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
If you can.

Speaker 4 (53:18):
Now, granted, if they're a champion, it's an autobid, but
still if there's a way to argue them out of
the playoff picture, I think people would rather do that.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
I think b White, I think they just have to win.

Speaker 2 (53:28):
I just have to keep winning.

Speaker 1 (53:30):
If they keep winning, then than no one Like it's.

Speaker 5 (53:33):
Not like last year with Florida State where there's any
kind of argument to keep them out.

Speaker 1 (53:37):
If they keep winning, they're in.

Speaker 5 (53:38):
The biggest question mark is if they don't win and
if they if they don't win in the if they
don't win in the regular season, it's an easy discussion.
It's that thirteenth game, right, Lucky thirteen. That's the game
where they've made it through the whole gauntlet of the
regular season and then they have to go to It's
almost like in Mike Tyson's Punch Out back in the day.

Speaker 1 (53:58):
That was my favorite Nintendo game growing up.

Speaker 5 (54:00):
You beat bald Bull and King Hippo and then you
get and then you get to the last round with Tyson,
and I remember getting to that round and I had
no shot. I probably had to restart that game one
hundred freaking times to try to beat Tyson. I even
made it to the like the second time you play
balld Bull, you gotta hit him with the left instead
of the right when he does the bull charge. I

(54:20):
made it so far I couldn't beat Tyson. So that's
the question for BYU. Can you beat Mike Tyson or
in this case Colorado, Yeah, and Prime in the Big
twelve times? No.

Speaker 1 (54:30):
I love that man oh Man I'll never forget the
code to reach Tyson. We'll never forget that that'll be
the one there. Yeah yeah, but oh yeah Tyson.

Speaker 2 (54:39):
Third round.

Speaker 1 (54:40):
It's like I know he does the true jab thing.
He waits for like five seconds. I know it's coming,
but two jab thing, I can't get out of the way. Yeah,
right shot. We got Rich Hornberger, Penn State, All American.
We've got Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No.
Be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bed MGM at It's fast and easy access to

(55:01):
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(55:24):
if that bet loses. All right, We've got Seamus McGee
coming up, team Lead of Sports Trading at BETMGM. He
does a magnificent job. I want to know how much
he thinks my Irish are going to smack around his
Virginia Cavaliers. Oh yeah, it's right, it's big Virginia guy. Guy.
Should I ask him that? Should? Okay? Well, you probably

(55:45):
got to play on it for you and we'll have
a shame a special. You know, we'll get that as
well as Pick of the Day. It is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Throughout the
entire football all season, bet MGM will offer all different
types of no Sweat tokens. Be on the lookout for
no Sweat same game parlay tokens and parlay boost tokens,

(56:09):
just to name a couple. And be sure to follow
bet MGM across all socials at BETMGM. All right, let's
do this.

Speaker 3 (56:17):
Follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 2 (56:19):
Ah.

Speaker 1 (56:19):
Yes, our good friend Seamus McGee, team lead of Sports
Trading at bet MGM, he joins us right now, Seamus.
The guys talked me into it. You know, I am
very respectful. I would never talk trash. Yeah, but they
they said, come on, what are you are you scared over?
So Seamus. I'm from South Bend, Indiana. You know, I
bleed Irish blood over here. And you're a Virginia guy.

(56:43):
You're you're back to Virginia Cavaliers. So I'm curious which
side of the fence you're on. Are you laying the
points with Notre Dame or are you taking them with Virginia.

Speaker 6 (56:52):
So good to be back, guys, thanks for having me again.
So the McGee family, we are diehard Uva, but we
have some Notre Dame affiliation as well with you know,
my older brother went to law school there. My sister
went to Saint Mary's, so it's a it's a big
one for us. I love Virginia plus twenty two and
a half plus twenty one and a half depending on

(57:13):
the number you got. It would make all the sense
in the world for the McGee family for Virginia to
and Notre Dame's playoff local. Oh yeah, that would be
It's the opposite of the luck of the Irish in
our house.

Speaker 5 (57:24):
That would be a really bad result for the Irish
if they lost.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
This game today to Virginia. That would be and I'll
be honest, the committee wouldn't like it. They want Notre
dame in.

Speaker 5 (57:33):
They want, they want the Irish touchdown Jesus in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (57:36):
I'll tell you what I don't like it. Well, we
might have to bar Seamous from the show.

Speaker 3 (57:43):
I don't know how.

Speaker 6 (57:43):
UVA scores on this nour name defense this week. It's
going to be a real tall task.

Speaker 5 (57:49):
Seamus usually asked you about games, but I want to
ask you about it. You know, the playoff rankings and
just how the dynamic of this is playing out and
how it impacts how you book the games every week,
like knowing especially byu being kind of in the crosshairs
this week, but every week there's like that one game
where it's like, man, if this team loses, they are out.
Does it change at all how you approach making lines

(58:13):
for these games? Adding in that pressure factor, that CFP factor,
is that baked into the number at all?

Speaker 6 (58:20):
It could be. I mean, we still have ratings that
we use and really just comes down to, you know,
where the sharp money is going. If there is a
pressure fact that it's going to be in there, you know,
sharp Money's gonna let us know pretty quick.

Speaker 4 (58:33):
Yeah, well, look, we were just talking about the Tyson
fight earlier today. It's kind of been a theme that's
woven itself throughout the course of this show.

Speaker 2 (58:42):
One of the most.

Speaker 4 (58:42):
Bet fights in the history of the fight game, certainly
in recent memory. I look there there were a lot
of people after the fighter who said, hey, the fix
was in. There was definitely a contract between Jake Paul
and Tyson. Jake was carrying him, or maybe there wasn't
a contract, but maybe there was like handshake agreement between
the two fighters. We're not going to embarrass each other,

(59:03):
We're not gonna go for the kill shot. Whatever it was,
it definitely felt like there was something else happening.

Speaker 2 (59:10):
It just wasn't a pure competition.

Speaker 4 (59:12):
Now these college football games, Shamus, it's pure competition. Everybody's
trying to win, everybody's trying to advance. But the CFP rankings,
the playoffs slotting, that's where it gets weird because that's
where opinions start entering the room. Are you seeing any
shakiness with betters not not putting their money on futures

(59:34):
for the college football playoff because they don't trust it
as much? You know, because because after all, we are
talking about board members sitting down in a hotel conference
room coming up with the decisions to decide the futures
of these these uh these college football programs.

Speaker 6 (59:51):
I would say the opposite. We have taken more money
on futures this year than I can remember, especially like
on to make the playoff market, even on the national
championship market, and it's really been awesome to see just
how much money's coming on features this year.

Speaker 1 (01:00:08):
Here's Seamous McGee joining us here on Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by BETTMGM. We always joke you need the team
facing Colorado, right, there's probably the case today any money
coming in on Utah where it's like, all right, plus fourteen,
I just have to do this?

Speaker 2 (01:00:26):
How about that?

Speaker 1 (01:00:26):
And who else do you need today? If you do
need the utes and I'm assuming you do.

Speaker 6 (01:00:32):
We do, but yeah, it's less need than it usually
is this week, which is kind of surprising. This week
it's all down to Georgia. We need Georgia outright in
and a route like they We need Georgia big over Tennessee.
And we're gonna need Arkansas looks like here on the
spread at home against Texas.

Speaker 1 (01:00:53):
Man, I'll tell you what, that's music to my ear shamus.

Speaker 5 (01:00:55):
Because the two things you need are the two things
that we were.

Speaker 1 (01:00:58):
Betting all morning long.

Speaker 5 (01:01:00):
Maybe everybody, all right, let's get to Kansas BYU because
I'm calling this another Vegas nose game.

Speaker 1 (01:01:06):
I get these texts from my friends all the time.
I see these tweets.

Speaker 5 (01:01:09):
Wait a minute, undefeated BYU is laying less than a
field goal against three win Kansas. Vegas must know something.
What does Vegas know about this game?

Speaker 1 (01:01:19):
Seamus?

Speaker 6 (01:01:20):
Damn? This line just stinks out loud. Money on Star,
Money's on the Jayhawks too. This was opening three and
a half. It's been bet down to two and a half.
Money has been kind of going both ways here for
a lot of the week. People were coming on Kansas,
and now looks like some buyback is coming on from
the public. So yeah, we're in a pretty good spot

(01:01:41):
as a book. But yeah, that's definitely a weird one.
The sharps have been hating this BYU team, and they've
bet Kansas most weeks as well.

Speaker 2 (01:01:49):
All right, I'm gonna give you three teams.

Speaker 4 (01:01:51):
You mentioned two of them, Arkansas and Georgia are in
this conversation.

Speaker 2 (01:01:54):
I'm going to add Nebraska.

Speaker 4 (01:01:57):
Who of the three of those would you say is
the most live money line?

Speaker 6 (01:02:02):
Dog hmmm, I would probably say I can't stand Nebraska anymore.
I'm gonna say Arkansas because I really think Georgia is
gonna come home and really put on a show today,

(01:02:23):
I'll say Arkansas, Texas hasn't shaky too.

Speaker 1 (01:02:26):
How about the same as special over here. I'm very
curious now this one.

Speaker 6 (01:02:31):
Yeah, you know, I looking at this pretty big c
AA game between Nova and Monmouth. I'll take Nova minus
three on the road here in New Jersey at Monmouth.
It's apologies to my my any anyone listening in the
state of New Jersey won't be able to bet this,
but you know you.

Speaker 5 (01:02:51):
Can find it out wown anytime. You can bet Villanova football. Yeah, please,
not basketball, you have to Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:02:59):
Yeah, I think who looked pretty good against Nova hoops yesterday,
But again that's not very hard these days against Stova basketball.

Speaker 1 (01:03:06):
I mean, I'm shot. You didn't want to LA forty
two with Alabama against Mercer today.

Speaker 5 (01:03:09):
You know that was another I'm sure that was that
one popped on your radar today.

Speaker 6 (01:03:17):
Still not a lot of not a lot of odds up.

Speaker 5 (01:03:19):
For that game, yet not a lot of Mercer money
coming into the book.

Speaker 1 (01:03:22):
I bet today that's for sure. Yeah, probably not. Yeah, well, hey, Seamous,
always appreciate your time. Man, good luck, have a good day.
We'll catch you soon, Bud.

Speaker 6 (01:03:32):
Thanks, guys, have a good one to join the games.

Speaker 1 (01:03:34):
You two.

Speaker 6 (01:03:34):
There.

Speaker 1 (01:03:34):
He is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports trading at
bet MGM. You know, I was just searching Monmouth NFL
players because of course that's what I do. And Miles
Austin remembers that I was first receiver. Yeah. And you
remember this guy Chris Hogan Bills. Remember he played with
Doph Yeah, didn't not Edelman. Didn't someone play at Mommouth

(01:03:57):
to lacross at momad that was? That was? That was?

Speaker 5 (01:04:02):
It wasn't Adam, it was it was Hogan played lacrosse Hogan.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Hogan did. Yeah. Were you teammates with
Hogan ever?

Speaker 2 (01:04:08):
Rich Or?

Speaker 4 (01:04:09):
He was our careers overlap. But I was, I believe,
playing for the Chargers his early years with the Patriots,
and I thought it was so cool because I grew
up playing lacrosse. Also, like I thought I was going
to play college lacrosse and then football took off for me.
So seeing a guy who played college lacrosse make it

(01:04:30):
into the league, I was like, whoa that is That's
an awesome story.

Speaker 1 (01:04:33):
Right there, man, you on lacrosse field would be a
little bit scary, right Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:04:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:04:38):
I was standing next to Rich last night.

Speaker 5 (01:04:40):
He is, he's formidable human Being's.

Speaker 1 (01:04:43):
The reason why he played offensive line and pretty big
fell all right, dam big not five six over there?

Speaker 4 (01:04:50):
I don't know, but then Jared shoved me into his
Space Shuttle car and I mean, I at least.

Speaker 2 (01:04:55):
I stayed at the front seat. Five yeah, shout out
to possible movie.

Speaker 1 (01:05:01):
I mean, wow, really, it's kind of like the the
w NBA commercial with Ava Wilton with with Asia Wilson
right hitting in that tight car. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:05:10):
I had to move the back seat because Jackpots got
his little car seat back there. I had to move
that so Rich's broadcast partner could fit in the back seat.

Speaker 2 (01:05:17):
It was, it was.

Speaker 1 (01:05:17):
It was a fun little carpool we had last night
down the streets Vegas. Very nice. One of the games
that Seamus mentioned Nebraska and USC and uh so USC,
You've got Jaden Mayava. He's gonna be starting at quarterback
previously played at UNLV. Miller Moss Audios muchachos. He's on
the bench. We got my ava been a weird week.

(01:05:39):
I know you wanted to speak to this Jared for
the for the corn Huskers, just explain what's been going
on and how you think it might affect him today.

Speaker 5 (01:05:47):
Yeah, so, I mean Marcus Sadderfield and I know it's
not it hasn't been pretty for Nebraska's offense this year,
but you saw them bring in Matt Role basically brought
in Dana Holgerson as an analyst like last week. He
was not part of the program to start the season.
And the rumors are I guess it's more I would say,

(01:06:09):
not really rumors at this point. It kind of feels
like what's happening is Dylan Roola was, you know, probably
getting asked to leave. And I think that's the biggest
problem we have in today's sport with college football. You
can't have teams poaching quarterbacks mid season. Like I think
that's a problem. And it seems like that was kind

(01:06:29):
of what was going on with Nebraska behind the scenes,
Like if something didn't change, Royola was going to be
gone in the offseason, he was gonna hit the transfer portal.
And I think the move by Matt Ruhle to you
don't see this very often you do not see an analyst.
And you know, and to be fair, Dan Holgerson was
a great head coach in his time, great offensive mind.

Speaker 1 (01:06:49):
You don't see a.

Speaker 5 (01:06:50):
Team bring in a guy from off the street mid
season and then within a week promote him to the essentially.

Speaker 1 (01:06:58):
The offensive coordinator calling plays.

Speaker 5 (01:07:00):
And it seems like, from what I can glean behind
the scenes, Matt Rule a little panic move, like we
need to figure out a way to keep Delan Royola
in Lincoln. And I think giving Holgerson the reins of
the offense is kind of like, Hey, Dylan, we're bringing
in an offensive guy to work with you, a guy
that's had success with quarterbacks before. Please stay in Lincoln

(01:07:22):
because I know it hasn't been this high flying season.
We're comparing him to Mahomes. He's not Mahomes. But I
think you have this situation now in college football where
teams are literally bringing guys in off the street midseason
just to keep their high level players. It is a
really weird situation brewing, and I think a lot of
tampering is going on behind the scenes with Royola and
I'm sure many other high level players, especially at the

(01:07:44):
quarterback position.

Speaker 4 (01:07:45):
No doubt about it. There's no doubt about it. That move,
I agree with you. The subtext of that move is,
how do we keep this guy on campus? How do
we build a better offense that features what he did
in high school football as well as we possibly And
that is the pressure that has been applied to the
head coaching position that was not there five years ago,

(01:08:06):
that really wasn't there three years ago.

Speaker 2 (01:08:09):
As the transfer portal.

Speaker 4 (01:08:10):
Name, image and likeness continues to evolve, what we're seeing
is pressures like for example, you may see certain teams
go to running back by midi where they don't need
to and they shouldn't because they have a hot hand.

Speaker 2 (01:08:23):
They got a guy they should ride for the rest
of a.

Speaker 4 (01:08:25):
Game, but they don't want to lose their second running
back to the transfer portal, so they're keeping them happy
with carries.

Speaker 2 (01:08:31):
Well, when you have a guy who's got.

Speaker 4 (01:08:33):
Great momentum and you pull them out of a game
just to appease the playing time requests of another player,
you're not setting yourself up for success. You're setting yourself
up for a future. So it's like you know, you're
robbing Peter to pay Paul either pouring it all into
the present and being the best football team you can
be here in twenty twenty four, or you're going to,

(01:08:57):
I don't know, try to pour a little in this cup,
a little in this cup, a little in this cup,
and try to serve all these masters, and you really
can't do that.

Speaker 2 (01:09:04):
So I completely agree with what Jared said.

Speaker 4 (01:09:07):
It is rare, if not unprecedented, to see an analyst
be promoted this quickly, especially when he's coming from outside
the program. But we're living at different times. Man, this
is this is a strange new world we're in.

Speaker 1 (01:09:23):
Yeah. Yeah, I just think of the NFL. That's where
my mind went. But think about the quote unquote legal
tampering period right before free agency, and every now and
then there's something where like the Kirk Cousin sweepstakes or
something like that Barkley wheah too, and teams are like whoa, whoa, whoa.
What compare that to in season?

Speaker 5 (01:09:47):
Right, Like, yeah, it just doesn't Jerry Jones I went
across to Kansas City.

Speaker 1 (01:09:52):
He was like, Hey, Patrick Bohe, Hey, come on, come
on down to Dallas. We know you're a Texas guy. Well, right,
or if this was I think that Kirk Cousins around
this time last year, during this season, you know, and
Atlanta's like, hey, you know when this twenty twenty three
season comes and goes, you know, how about little hashtag

(01:10:14):
rise up action?

Speaker 5 (01:10:15):
And it could have happened because he was hurt and
was probably sitting on the sidelines watching like that reality
that might have happened with Atlanta, and that was why
the tampering happened. Like, I don't remember the exact timing
of when they contacted him, but this is happening in
college football. Think about how many players they're in the

(01:10:37):
NFL and then multiply that by like fifty, that's how
many colleg football players there are. It's happening at such
an advanced level because of the volume of players you
need in a program. I think we're getting to the
point where there is a big problem and I don't
know how it's fixed, but this is an example of why, like,
and to be fair, Dan Holgerson might do great things

(01:10:59):
with Nebraska, might be the missing link to get that
offense going, but the fact that it happened in week
eleven or week twelve is like crazy crazy, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:11:09):
I will say this about usc mai Eva.

Speaker 4 (01:11:12):
He gives a different, a spark or angle or dynamic
to this USC offense that Moss did not. He's mobile,
he's a dual threat guy. I've watched a lot of
film on him. I've broadcasted many of his games from
the booth around college football. He's he's talented, he can
throw it, he could spend it a little bit, spend
a lot of time at UNLV. So I got to

(01:11:33):
see him. And then you look at the defense, which
I would say under Danton Lynn, by the way Penn
State or we are, Yeah, he's been pretty god I
would say. I would say the USC Trojans defense has
made strides under Lynn. They're still giving up an absurd
amount of points to pen or to Big ten rivals.

(01:11:55):
So we'll see what happens in this one. There's a
lot of new here, new quarterback on one side, new
offensive coordinator on the other side, that level of volatility,
plus the stretch that we've seen USC, and I think
we got a live dog in Nebraska.

Speaker 5 (01:12:10):
Absolutely high volatility games. Especially I know this in them
Big twelve too, the Big Twelve. Take the dog. These
games are wacko wacko kracko in the Big twelve. Just
take the dogs like and I know that the Nebraska
games has a lot of that volatility too. I think
this is gonna be I think we're gonna have two
weeks of insane, insane results. It's kind of like a sneaky,

(01:12:31):
sneaky Saturday. We don't see a lot of rank versus rank.
I think one or two big time games are gonna
gonna go down a couple upsets today.

Speaker 1 (01:12:39):
As always, you know, it just popped into my head,
and Rich, I don't want to put you in a
bad position, so feel free to smack me around if
this does. But you watch You just mentioned you watched
you know, UNLV closely in my ava and all that stuff,
and it it just makes me think of the game today.
So you're on the broadcast for San Diego State on
the radio side against UNLV. There have to be times,

(01:13:02):
have to be times during rapid fire of this show,
at the very end, we're making our picks, and you're like,
I would lay the twenty one and a half. We
were talking about this last night season for the acts.
You just can't.

Speaker 2 (01:13:17):
You're like, no, no, no, no, we haven't.

Speaker 1 (01:13:18):
Talked about San Diego State on the show much this year.

Speaker 2 (01:13:21):
No, we haven't and they've been.

Speaker 4 (01:13:23):
They've been a sneaky good team out of the Group
of five for a decade. And look, there's a lot
that happens in well, I should say for any team.
It doesn't matter if you're talking college football. It doesn't
matter if you're talking football, you could be talking NBA baseball.
When there's a new face at the top of a program,

(01:13:43):
it takes time for the foundation to be built. Sean Lewis,
to his credit, new head coach with the Aztecs. He's
doing some really special teams. He's literally one of only
two human beings on the planet Earth who's.

Speaker 2 (01:13:55):
Ever won at Kent State.

Speaker 4 (01:13:57):
If you go back and look at the Golden Flashes
history as a head coach, he's one of only two
human beings who've been able to do it. He's got talent,
but that talent it has to it has to create
a culture, and cultures take a little time. So this
year they played a lot of good teams really close.

(01:14:17):
They've had a couple of blowout losses, but the goal
is to build.

Speaker 2 (01:14:22):
And yeah, I try to stay off of.

Speaker 4 (01:14:24):
Actually I have always stayed off of San Diego State
in any of my picks because I never want that
to influence my broadcast. But it's been a it's been
a season, man, It's it's been a season.

Speaker 1 (01:14:37):
No, no doubt about that. Hey, our thanks to Rapid Radio,
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Betting Analyst. I'm Brian Nell. Coming up next. Yes, prop
it up the prop betting market. Lot of choices, lot

(01:15:20):
of angles, We'll share them with you. Coming up next,
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(01:15:43):
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All right, let's do this.

Speaker 3 (01:15:54):
Prop it up player plays.

Speaker 1 (01:15:57):
Ah, yes, the prop betting market. Jared, We'll start with you.
What's something you like? Love it? This is a fantastic
day for prop.

Speaker 5 (01:16:06):
That's because again we're starting to get more data on
these teams. We kind of know where the scripts are
going to go, and I think the props I'm gonna
be that a lot more prop, especially in the ball season.

Speaker 1 (01:16:14):
You just wait.

Speaker 5 (01:16:15):
We'll go to this Tennessee Georgia game, and again, this
one kind.

Speaker 1 (01:16:18):
Of aligns with how the game script will play out.

Speaker 5 (01:16:21):
Dylan Samson under ninety five and a half rushing Gome, Dude.

Speaker 1 (01:16:25):
That's the one I have it.

Speaker 2 (01:16:26):
That's play.

Speaker 1 (01:16:27):
It's beautiful. That's all right. You stole Kansas for me.
I'm stealing Samson from you. Samson.

Speaker 5 (01:16:33):
Hey went to Samson, They listen. The game script here
just fits purposely. First of all, George just expected to
win this game by double digits. The numbers telling you
Georgia's plus a touchdown favorite and the total is super
low forty six and a half. Tennessee's team total is
nineteen and a half. They are not going to score
a lot of points in this game. And if you're Georgia,
take the hand, take the ball out of Nico's hands,

(01:16:55):
make them throw it, defeat you. You know Dylan Samson
can run it. Make Dylan a one dimensional runner today.
I think under ninety five and a half rush yard,
you get that, Okay.

Speaker 4 (01:17:04):
We got Utah at CU Travis Hunter ninety six and
a half receiving yards. Give me the over there. Here's
the reason why. When your season's on the line, what
do you do well. I don't want to oversimplify it,
but you highlight the most talented players on your field,
and Travis Hunter, no question is so give me Hunter
going over the ninety six and a half receiving mark

(01:17:26):
on the day against the Utes, who they're good defense always,
that's just kind of built into the culture there. But
they're gonna want to stop you at the line of scrimmage.
If you're gonna beat the uts it's usually through the air.
Colorado will do that today. Give me Hunter and the
over Okay.

Speaker 1 (01:17:43):
Yeah, i'd like your uh your play there. Tennessee running
back Dylan Samson under ninety five and a half. I
will co sign that one for sure. I'm gonna go
with I'm gonna go with Texas over here. A lot
of directions you could go. I'm gonna play Quinn Ewers
over two ninety four and a half passing yards. This
Arkansas secondary is a wreck. I think you could go

(01:18:06):
with a receiver tight end, you know, like Quinn you Weres.
Passing yards have ticked up, but the receiving yards haven't
for most of the weapons. So it's like the receiving
yards have to go somewhere, you know. I think Isaiah
Bond over fifty six and a half receiving yards against
Arkansas secondary is a nice place to look. So I
think there are a lot of options with Texas's passing

(01:18:28):
game against Arkansas today. That is just it's a secondary
that's right for the picking. They've had injuries, they've been blackluster.
I think Texas has a lot of success through the
air today. So give me Quinn you Weres over two
ninety four and a half passing Yeah, that's an interesting matchup.

Speaker 5 (01:18:45):
I'll give you another a player that I think is
going to play today and it's going to impact the number.
And we've been talking about this on another show I
had earlier this week. Brady Cook. I think he is
going to at least try to suit up the Misseri today.
And this is this is a season kind of game,
right Like Missouri still thinks they can make the playoff.

(01:19:07):
South Carolina has been kind of upstart lately. This game
has a super low total two. But I'll be honest,
Luther Burden. If let's say Brady Cook plays, If Luther
Burden doesn't have one hundred touches in this game for Missouri,
what are you saving him for? He's two to one
to score a touchdown. And again I don't love Benny
touchdown props with a total of forty two and a half,

(01:19:27):
but this is arguably the best receiver in college football,
and you're getting him at two to one to score
a touchdown. They've got to feed him the ball today,
whether it's screens, drawing, whatever, get this guy the ball.

Speaker 1 (01:19:40):
I would say that.

Speaker 5 (01:19:41):
Is a player on Missouri's team to watch today with
Brady Cook hopefully suiting up.

Speaker 1 (01:19:44):
Interesting that South Carolina pass rush man is crazy. It's
a little rough, really good.

Speaker 5 (01:19:50):
That's why, right, get the little wide receiver screen, get
ball in his hands out and just let him.

Speaker 1 (01:19:54):
Do his thing, all right, No time for teesus ah
welcome in less than an hour until kickoff, getting you
all set for a full helping of college football here today,
very much looking forward to this next matchup, Number seven
Tennessee against number twelve Georgia. I haven't given you many

(01:20:15):
NASCAR comparisons on this show here, but I think one
applies to this matchup. This is what I'm thinking. Tennessee
is like a car that has the lead on the
final lap at like Talladega, and Georgia is behind them,
and you're like, Georgie is in a better position to

(01:20:36):
winness race than Tennessee is, right, Like, that's exactly what
it seems like. Tennessee the higher ranked team, but Georgia
at home, they're favored by eight and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:20:45):
This is Georgia's season on the line, and it's a
tough spot for Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (01:20:52):
It just is. And Tennessee knows it's their season on
the line too, and they lose this game. Audios, man,
you're not making the play off if you lose on
the road to Georgia. And I think that's what's gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (01:21:03):
Yeah, yeah, Hype Bowls, fast paced eight one team. Just
I mean, it feels like they're they're wandering right into
the spider web. We're all seeing it in the movie theater,
but the lead actor doesn't see it yet, and it's
gonna happen. And they're playing the scary Oregon music behind
the scene.

Speaker 2 (01:21:21):
And it's the high pitch and it's right there. You
see it coming.

Speaker 4 (01:21:25):
But they can't help themselves because this is the schedule,
this is sec play this is what it comes down to.
Every year, there's gonna be a team or teams usually
teams plural, who are going to have their season on
the line down the stretch. And like you said, just
as much as Georgia's seasons on the line, so is Tennessee's.
But Kirby Smart back up against the wall hosting Tennessee

(01:21:48):
in this spot, it's just, man, it's a tough time
for the Balls to be heading to face the dogs.

Speaker 2 (01:21:56):
Man. That's a tough that's a tough that's a tough
position in this season.

Speaker 5 (01:22:01):
The way it's gone how about this, so Tennessee can
be the first team to beat Georgia and Bama in
the same season since those Joe Burrow the Joe Burrow
LSU team in twenty nineteen hasn't happened. And now, granted,
I know five years isn't that long, but that just

(01:22:22):
shows you how hard it is to beat those two
teams in the same season. And George is coming off
the loss to Ole Miss. It snapped a streak of
fifty two straight wins against teams not named Alabama, their
first loss to a non Bama team since twenty twenty.
That's how good this Georgia team has been. It is

(01:22:44):
not your prototypical Georgia team of recent history. But a
point was made to me on another podcast this week,
and I'll echo it here.

Speaker 1 (01:22:55):
College football is so.

Speaker 5 (01:22:56):
Down this year in terms of the greatness right, Like
it's a very much good, not great season for a
lot of these teams. There's no amazing star kind of team.
Georgia is down relative to what we expect them to be.
But they still went into Texas and absolutely whipped the Longhorns.

Speaker 1 (01:23:15):
Like this is not a great Georgia team.

Speaker 5 (01:23:17):
Everyone, all the sharps all the market is all telling
us it's not a great Georgia, But at their peak,
I think they still can give you those performances. There's
two question marks I have in this game. It's both quarterbacks.
Like Carson Becks a walking turnover. He had six turnover
worthy plays all of last season. He has seventeen in
nine games this year.

Speaker 2 (01:23:34):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (01:23:35):
It just he has to limit the turnovers.

Speaker 5 (01:23:37):
And for Nico, this is a really tough spot right
quarterback off a concussion night game season on the line.
For Georgia's defense after they got whipped last week, and
when you remove that element of play action. This is
why I like the under in Dylan Sampson today because
if Georgia can take away the run, it also limits

(01:23:59):
Tennessee's ability to go with play action. And they use
play action on sixty percent of their dropbacks. And that's
like Nico's a different quarterback without play action. We talk
about this with Mike McDaniel and Miami and all these
teams that are putting play action in their offenses. It's
like a it's a crutch for the quarterback if they
can't run it and you can't set up play action.
I don't know how much Tennessee's offense is going to

(01:24:21):
be able to move it today.

Speaker 1 (01:24:22):
Yeah, that's the thing, man, is all of a sudden,
Tennessee can't run the ball in SEC play and it's
a power running game, right, And that's what Georgia defends
really really well. And so yeah, you're right, it's a
ripple effect. You would want to most likely take pressure
off of Iamalaiava coming off the concussion. And if the

(01:24:42):
running game isn't working and the play action passing game
isn't working as well, that puts much more pressure on
the guys. That is not a good ripple effect for Tennessee,
and you pointed it out, Jared. The question is Carson Beck.
We thought that was an exclamation point in Georgia's favor
heading into this season. He was really good last year

(01:25:04):
and the offensive line has been banged up at times
not as good. You look at the weapons lost and
Brock Bauers and Lad McConkey to the NFL. That's made
a huge difference, and Carson Beck looks completely different. It's
like it shows you imagine if Carson Beck was eligible

(01:25:24):
to go out or left Georgia last year and entered
the NFL draft how he would look compared to how
he looks right now. And so it's so hard to
evaluate these college quarterbacks. A lot of their production is
tied to who they have around them, and with Carson
Beck not having the same weapons around him as he
did last season, man, he looks like it and some

(01:25:46):
of these decisions that he's made and these turnover worthy plays,
it just hadn't been good enough. And that's one thing.

Speaker 2 (01:25:52):
Man.

Speaker 1 (01:25:52):
If Tennessee has a good chance, it's their d line.
They can put pressure on you. And if Carson Beck
does not handled that well and there's a big turnover
it leads to good field position or a defensive score,
then all of a sudden, Tennessee's got a chance. But
I don't like pinning my hopes on something like that
happening for them to have a real shot to win

(01:26:13):
this game. I think it's going to take that for
Tennessee to win.

Speaker 4 (01:26:16):
Yeah, the Balls have a very very active defensive front
and defensive coordinator Tim Banks. Tim Banks, you can tip
a cap to him because he's done a really nice
job with that wrecking crew up front. They've doubled every
other or excuse me there, Pierce Junior has doubled every
other Tennessee player in pressures. He's generated the third highest

(01:26:39):
total nationally off the edge for the balls forty three
pressures on the QBS. So you talk about Beck what
he's done. When a quarterback doesn't feel like he has time,
that's when they make mistakes. That's when they throw interceptions. Also,
a huge question mark for Tennessee answering the season was
their secondary. Well, they've answered that question. They're one one

(01:27:00):
of the better coverage units in the FBS.

Speaker 2 (01:27:04):
I would probably put them in the top third.

Speaker 4 (01:27:06):
I don't think we're talking top twenty five territory, but
they're a very solid group, a top two ranking on
third down defense.

Speaker 2 (01:27:14):
I mean, this is a very talented Tennessee team.

Speaker 4 (01:27:18):
So even though it's a spot, there's no question it's
it's probably not opportune time to play the Bulldogs at
home in Athens, But when is there really ever? They
still have They still have the guys up front, especially defensively,
to get the job done. And depending on Nico's health,
we'll see how he looks, how he plays. If that's

(01:27:41):
going to be the situation at all, that kid out
of the backfield Sampson. He can tote the rock and
so I love the prop pick for both you and Jard.
You were both on it and I was doing the
deep dive afterward. I was like, Yeah, I mean, when
you have an injury to a quarterback and you have
a running back like Samson, he'll be a feature piece

(01:28:02):
and he's a capable one.

Speaker 2 (01:28:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:28:04):
The question for me I have is how much these
Georgia defenders play. I'm glad Michael Williams so three he's
been right, Like, when we think about Georgia, we think
of Jaalen Carter, we think of Nolan Smith. I think
he's great defenders and that twenty two team. They haven't
you haven't seen it yet with this Georgia defense because
they've been kind of banged up, but they have guys
maybe not on that level like Jalen Carter, but like

(01:28:26):
right below it. And I think we're kind of seeing
the snap count thing become more of a factor where
a guy like Michael Williams, who's probably pound for pounding
the best player on Georgia's defense, injured to start the year,
and I'm sure Kirby's thinking, all right, how can we
nurse and get this kid to November healthy, because when

(01:28:47):
ever you're dealing with those soft tissue injuries, it's tough
with these defenders, especially the edge rushers. Three straight games
for Mikeah Williams of thirty five or more snaps is
a very positive thing. Even Jordan Hall came back and
played five snaps against Ole Miss and they're just kind
of getting his feet wet a little bit. We know
Smile London, We've talked about him before. One of the
best tacklers in the country. He is looking like back

(01:29:07):
into peak form. So while we look, well we close
our eyes, we don't see the twenty two Georgia Bulldogs
when we look at this Georgia twenty four version. I
think their defense is closer to that level than we've
seen this year, but we just haven't seen it on
the field yet because the injuries and kind of the
schedule has pushed them aside. I'll be honest, though, if

(01:29:28):
Tennessee puts up a big number in this game, like
if they can get to twenty four point like their
team totals nineteen and a half, if they can go
over their team total, they will have a chance to
win this game. But I'm betting under the team total.
I'm betting Georgia. I think this is a suffocating performance
by the Georgia defense. I think they make Nico in
this offense look small tonight. And I don't think it's

(01:29:49):
gonna matter as much how much Carson Beck produces, as
long as he doesn't turn it over.

Speaker 1 (01:29:55):
Make Tennessee go the full length of the field. Yeah,
I that's the hit is we always hear this, and
we always you know, if someone says a, uh, what's
the like a system quarterback or game manager, That's what
I'm looking for, Like, uh, you know, oh game manager? Yuck?

(01:30:15):
That we always talk about that, Carson. That's right. If
you just play complimentary football and you manage the game.
If you're Carson Beck, George is gonna win this game,
you like, and uh, I know we look at it
like that's the the worst thing you can say about
a quarterback is game manager, because the way we apply
it is he's limited, he's not special, he's not very talented.

(01:30:38):
But this is a perfect example where being a game
manager is sometimes a fantastic thing. If Carson Beck can
just be a good game manager tonight against Tennessee, I
love George's chances because they're gonna rely on their defense
and Tennessee's offense it hasn't been close to what we

(01:30:58):
expected and what it's been lately. They're a shell of
themselves offensively.

Speaker 4 (01:31:04):
So two stat points or data points that analytics departments
around the NFL are starting to focus on a lot
more as predictive measures to see whether or not a
team is going to win or lose.

Speaker 2 (01:31:16):
You don't even have to look at the scoreboard.

Speaker 4 (01:31:19):
If you look at the turnovers and take takeaways and giveaways,
and you look at explosive plays against and four, you
can pretty much tell who wins every game.

Speaker 2 (01:31:30):
It's something up over a ninety three percent tile.

Speaker 4 (01:31:33):
So when you look at what's happened to Georgia in
its losses, they've committed seven turnovers and they only had
two takeaways. That is such a glaring stat and it
goes a long way to prove what both of you
are saying. If Carson Beck settles down and doesn't give
this game away, if this Georgia defense, who's as healthy

(01:31:54):
as it's been at any point this season, they get
out there and they try to tear at that football
like Kirby's was talking about this week in his press
conferences and his and his media spots. This could be
I'm not gonna call it an easy win. There's nothing easy,
there's nothing guaranteed in college football. But you're at home.
It is the perfect time to face this team. So

(01:32:15):
go out there and play careful well, I shouldn't say careful,
but don't play careless football offensively, and.

Speaker 2 (01:32:23):
This could be a w.

Speaker 4 (01:32:25):
And whether you want to, you know, back Tennessee for
all the reasons we just discussed. They have a high
powered offense, they're very efficient. There's a lot of things,
a lot of nice things you could say about the
balls defense. This is Georgia. Their reputation precedes itself. What
do they have. They're on like a twenty eight game
home winning streak that they can sustain here if they

(01:32:48):
get this victory. Game manager is not a dirty word
in football. That's what Carson Beck needs to be today.

Speaker 5 (01:32:56):
I've seen some stats. It's like Kirby's never loved back
to back games before. There's like so many like stats
where if like Georgia loses this game, it'll be like
a first in so many ways. But I will close
with this, I guess I'll call it somewhat tongue in cheek.
Since Hannah Cavender on October twelfth tweeted out, QB is

(01:33:19):
a cutie. For those who don't know Hannah Cavender the
social media, I call her like the cheerleader of the Internet.
So to say, five touchdowns, nine picks for Carson Beck.
Since she tweeted out that post on October twelfth.

Speaker 1 (01:33:31):
QB is a cutie.

Speaker 5 (01:33:33):
And I don't want to quote actually no, I will
quote it. Mickey gold Mill in Rocky Women Weekend legs
one of my favorite quotes from that movie.

Speaker 1 (01:33:45):
And I know there's some women out there that might
get offended. Please don't. It's just a movie quote.

Speaker 5 (01:33:49):
But it's more of a distraction thing. Carson Beck is
now the star. He's many getting paid millions of dollars.
He's a college He's a college student getting paid millions
of dollars to play college football. The distractions come with that.
Can you block he remember we had the video of
him on the sideline smiling against Ole Miss last week

(01:34:09):
when they were losing.

Speaker 1 (01:34:10):
That was blown up. Can you silence the critics?

Speaker 5 (01:34:14):
Can you silence the mechanism and focus on one football game?
Because it's all there in front of you for Georgia.
But man, if they lose this.

Speaker 1 (01:34:22):
Game, I'll tell you real fast. In closing, I like
how you said that, Georgia, Jared in closing, like you're
taking your hat off a little bit in closing and
bowing no. Last week, it was just so surprising how
the game started for Ole Miss and Georgia and how
it turned. I was on Old Miss, that was one

(01:34:44):
of my picks in rapid Fire, and Jackson Dart was
banged up. He couldn't put any pressure on his left ankle.
He threw a terrible interception, he hobbles off the field,
he slams his helmet, and I'm like, oh gosh, I
might be on the wrong side. And ever since then,
Old Miss pretty much dominated the game. Georgia had nothing

(01:35:05):
for their that Old Miss defense, and it's just it's
surprising to see George's struggle to that degree. But man,
this is again back against the wall. This is their
season on the line, and I believe they're facing an
inferioror Tennessee opponent here. That's why I'm I'm dogs in
this one man, in this spine, I think it's Jams

(01:35:25):
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(01:35:48):
this team, but do you really want to back this
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(01:36:30):
Number one Oregon in action against those Badgers. Huh, taken
on Wisconsin here. Now here's the thing. I don't quite
get Perdue vibes, but hear me out on this one. Okay.
Remember when Notre Dame was at Perdue earlier in the
year and it was just the trendy pick to fade

(01:36:52):
Notre Dame. They had just lost to Northern Illinois, and
it's like, oh gosh, let's fade Notre Dame. Let's fade them.
And it's like, you do realize if you're fading Notre Dame,
you're betting on Perdue. Right, Just make sure you realize that.
So I get it. If you want to fade Oregon,
they haven't been pummeling opponents. They just kind of coast

(01:37:13):
to the finish line and win in a lot of
these games. If you want to fade Oregon, I get it.
But just understand you are backing Wisconsin. So you need
to ask yourself, is this what I want to do? Like,
that's the question, do I want to back Wisconsin. If
the answer is yes, go for it. But if the
answer is no, take that into the put that into

(01:37:35):
the equation. When you're figuring out which side to be
on here.

Speaker 2 (01:37:39):
I really like the Oregon offense also.

Speaker 4 (01:37:42):
I think it travels well because it's not just Dylan
Gabriel their heisman candidate. It's James out of the backfield,
Jordan James, who's an explosive rusher, and they really they're
good play sequencers. And what I mean by that is
it's as important to have good plays in your playbook
as it is to call good plays when you need

(01:38:04):
to call them. I think they have a great plan
at all parts of the field, whether they're backed up,
or they're reaching midfield, or they're taking shots outside the fringe,
heading into that fringe area where you can seal the
deal for three points, or continue down into the red
zone where they have a good plan in the low
red zone or goal line area. I think Oregon's a

(01:38:24):
complete offense and they do a nice job controlling the clock.
So I'm gonna expect more of the same today. I
think Oregon rolls. I think with Wisconsin folds and would.
I would never put my money on the Badgers this season.
I just I can't do it.

Speaker 5 (01:38:40):
You got bars today, Rich, I like it.

Speaker 1 (01:38:42):
Oregon rolls Wisconsin Folds. I love DJ Jazzy rich over here.

Speaker 5 (01:38:49):
Yeah, this number is honestly, it's been stuck in the
mud all week, Like it opened fifteen.

Speaker 1 (01:38:53):
We did see the.

Speaker 5 (01:38:54):
Initial buy on Wisconsin and that got us to under
the two touchdown mark. But since we got there, I
would say mid week there has been literally no opinion
on this game from the you know, the market setters
here in Vegas and abroad. I will say this, the
spot favors Wisconsin. They're off the buy, they're at home.

(01:39:17):
They're facing a team that, unless Bo's got another trick
up asleep, I don't think Oregon's been to Madison any
time recently, so I would imagine that that is the
feeling out process to this game. And then you throw
in the fact that Oregon doesn't need style points.

Speaker 1 (01:39:35):
You see that zero in the OH.

Speaker 5 (01:39:37):
The Oregon OH is also the number of losses they
have this year, and it starts to you know, add
the pressure. You see these kids, they're kids, they're twenty
two year old kids, eighteen nineteen, twenty year old kids.
You see that pressure add up, and I think Oregons,
even if Oregon lost this game today, I think they
would still be in the college for ball playoffs, but

(01:39:58):
it would obviously change the way we feel about them dramatically.
I think the only way Oregon covers this is if
Dan Lanning looks Dylan Gabriel in the eyes and says, Dylan,
do you want to win the Heisman? If that's the
answer is yes, then maybe they drop a fifty burger
on Wisconsin today because they can. But unless, like they

(01:40:19):
want to create that margin and really expose themselves to.

Speaker 1 (01:40:23):
Injury or risk or so. I don't think they need
to win this game by more than a score. M yeah,
I hear you. But are they capable of winning by
over two scores? Absolutely, the answer is absolutely yes against
this Wisconsin team. But hey man, night game, maybe they
come out hair on fire. Crazier things have happened. It's

(01:40:43):
college football. You do wonder when the letdown is gonna happen, right,
Like we've seen Oregon with sort of letdown halves right
just coasting the finish line. Is there gonna be a letdown?
Just collective game from the And I don't know, really,
I'm like you rich where it's like you could, but it's.

Speaker 2 (01:41:07):
Wiscontson w Scottson.

Speaker 4 (01:41:09):
Yes, it's like I love I loved the statement you
made Brian about that, because you're you're you're really smart
in not just saying, hey, yeah, fade Oregon.

Speaker 2 (01:41:22):
Tough spot for Oregon.

Speaker 4 (01:41:23):
That feels good to say, but understand, you're putting your
money on the Badgers who look offensively.

Speaker 2 (01:41:31):
They just can't hang. So if I'm Dan Lanning, what
am I gonna do?

Speaker 4 (01:41:36):
Okay, this is a what Wisco team that has a
pretty good rushing attack. They cannot throw the football to
save their lives, So I'm going to stack the box.
They're going to have a hard time driving on us.
If they do, it's gonna have to be methodical because Jared,
you can back me up here in a second. If
you look at Wisconsin, I every time I turn them on,

(01:41:57):
it feels like it's three yards and a clouded dust,
and if they score, it's because they've gone on a
sixteen play drive.

Speaker 2 (01:42:05):
This team is not explosive.

Speaker 4 (01:42:07):
I don't know where they rank in college football, but
if they're not the bottom of the list, they're close.
Because I haven't seen a single Badger like like rack
Off a fifty yard rush the entire season, or an
eighty yard passing reception for a touchdown, Like, it just
doesn't happen with Wisconsin. So how are they going to

(01:42:28):
slow down this Oregon offense? I don't think they can.
How are they going to pile up points quickly if
Oregon's scoring?

Speaker 2 (01:42:35):
I don't think they can.

Speaker 4 (01:42:37):
So again, going back to the original point, you're not
just fading Oregon. You're betting Wisconsin. So it's just not
even though it feels like a good spot, it's just
not a good spot.

Speaker 5 (01:42:47):
Yeah, the explosive pass plays have not been positive for
Wisconsin this year. I don't have the direct number in
front of me, but they're outside the top let's say
ninety in drop back efficiency. Yeah, outside the top ninety
in success rate with their dropbacks.

Speaker 1 (01:43:03):
They've been better in the run game.

Speaker 5 (01:43:06):
They're like a top fifty rushing team. The efficiency numbers
basically have this game right on the number thirty to sixteen.
So you tell me what you want to do with like,
I feel like the way I view Oregon and Ohio
State and Penn State and all these teams that just
have to win, I think you're doing yourself a disservice

(01:43:26):
if you're laying two three touchdowns with these teams because
the mindset you have to put yourself and rich you
can do this way better than me.

Speaker 1 (01:43:33):
I was never on the field. If you're oregan today.

Speaker 5 (01:43:36):
And you know that the only thing you need is
a w and you take a fourteen to nothing lead
and that's the score at halftime, is your second half
mentality let's score another fourteen or is it let's not
give up another fourteen because we're already ahead. We already
have enough points in our bank to win. And that's

(01:43:57):
always the question I have with these teams, do you
change your approach? And we see this all the time
with teams that take their foot and it's taking your
foot off the gas. And we see that a lot
with really good teams that know that they can turn
it on at any moment. And I think the mindset
of just getting a lead and keeping the lead is
the hardest thing in college football. And once you have
that lead, you just don't want to give it up.

(01:44:19):
You're not as worried about extending it. You just don't
want to make the boneheaded play to give up the lead,
and so you get conservative on offense, and it just
you go from a team like that wants to throw
the ball, run the ball, you know, tempo, and all
of a sudden, you see these tempo.

Speaker 1 (01:44:33):
Teams slow it down. You're like, well, that's not going
to work.

Speaker 5 (01:44:35):
And I think that's just the mentality these teams have
when they have a lead in the second half. And
that's why it's tough to lay big numbers, especially with
a team like Oregon that knows they only need to win.

Speaker 1 (01:44:44):
I'll just say one more thing and I'll throw another
game at you. But I think it's it's fascinating how
sometimes a whole home field advantage can change where think
about Camp Randall, great home field advantage, great atmosphere, but man,
how the stadium might feel tonight. If Oregon puts together
a couple of scoring drives, maybe a quick scoring drive,

(01:45:07):
and all of a sudden, the stadium starts to feel
like it's slipping away. It's slipping away. It's you know
who feels that, the players. So if you've got this
methodical offense and all of a sudden, you glance at
the scoreboard and you're down by two touchdowns, you're down
by two touchdowns plus maybe it's a seventeen point deficit,
and it's like, okay, guys, you know what Let's just
stay within ourselves. We're not gonna go chunk plays right

(01:45:31):
down the field and score in fifty five seconds. Let's
be methodical. You know, gain a six here, gain a
five there. Good good, But we're losing by seventeen. It's
so hard to stay focused and not try to do
too much when you're that type of limited offense and

(01:45:51):
that's what you have to do to make a living
and you're trailing, and the whole stadium feels like, guys,
we're losing, we're losing here, times taking away. It's just
really hard to execute when all that is being thrown
at you. And that could be the case tonight.

Speaker 4 (01:46:07):
Fourteen points is not fourteen points because I've been on
teams where fourteen points felt like we could make that
deficit disappear in literally seconds. Or there are teams that
I've been on where you're down fourteen points and you're like, wow,
we lost this one, and you're looking at the clock
and you have four minutes left in the second quarter

(01:46:28):
because you just you know that with fourteen point cushion, they're.

Speaker 2 (01:46:33):
Going to outpace you.

Speaker 4 (01:46:35):
So that's it, that's all they needed to get you,
and you know you don't have what it takes to
catch them. So if fourteen points isn't fourteen points, so Wisconsin,
they get down by two scores early, even ten points
may be insurmountable. It's that kind of game. To your
point Jared earlier about you know, the conservative play. The
best coaches on the best teams who know that they

(01:46:57):
not only can score points fast, but they also have
a strong run game, are going to walk down the sideline,
get in front of their offensive line at some point
and say, all right, fellas, it's up to you. Go
out there and bully this defense for the rest of
the game. You won't have to pass protect for the
rest of the day. Just go out there and give

(01:47:18):
me five yards to carry and I we will run
it down their throats and then, you know what, It
may look conservative to the rest of the fans watching
at home or the people at Camp Randall, but for
the Oregon Ducks offensive line, it's a badge of honor
you get to wear. It's like, we're gonna get into
our four minute offense starting in the you know, the
third quarter, let's roll. You know it's then it's time

(01:47:40):
to just go out there and get your meat. Mits
on people and throw them around a little bit and
leave Wisconsin with the.

Speaker 5 (01:47:47):
W I don't have any faith in Wisconsin being able
to move it on this Oregon defense.

Speaker 1 (01:47:53):
I mean they couldn't move it on Penn State's defense.

Speaker 5 (01:47:56):
And I listen, you're not going to find a bigger
Penn State fan than me and Rich here on the show.
But this is not an elite, elite, elite Penn State defense.
This is a very i would say limited Penn State
team in terms of their athleticism compared to years pass,
especially on defense, like they have Abdual Carter and there
ain't a whole lot else there. I think Oregon's got
multiple guys like Abdual Carter that can get after you.

(01:48:18):
And I look at the rushing numbers, I look at
the receiving numbers for Wisconsin. I don't know how you
stay balanced. And again that doesn't matter when it comes
to covering a spread. You could figure out a way
to get through the back door. But Penn State with
a backup quarterback went into Wisconsin and won by fifteen.

Speaker 2 (01:48:33):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:48:34):
I just it's going to have to take a monumental
effort or Oregon just completely calling off the Ducks not
the Dogs. The Ducks to this to get this across
the finish line. I'm not overly enthused about laying it today.
But of all the games with the big point spreads,
I think Oregon has a decent chance. I would say

(01:48:54):
it's a coin flip. It really is a coin flip.
The numbers right on at fourteen. I think if you
get thirteen and a half, you leg with Oregon. If
it goes back to fourteen, I think you take it
with Wisconsin.

Speaker 1 (01:49:03):
Yeah, it has ticked down to thirteen and a half.
You could get Oregon right now on bet MGM at
thirteen and a half if you'd like, let me throw
another thirteen and a half game at you, another home
dog Arkansas plus thirteen and a half at home and
what just twenty two minutes from now against number three Texas.

(01:49:23):
I just Texas's they have such an advantage throwing the football.
Arkansas's secondary is a mess, and I think they're gonna
put up a lot of airy yards today. With Quinn Eewers,
you seem to be leaning Arkansas. Are you not in
this one?

Speaker 2 (01:49:38):
Jared?

Speaker 1 (01:49:38):
I love Arkansas in this year. Well, I take it back.

Speaker 5 (01:49:41):
I don't love Arkansas I like Arkansas. I think again,
the spot really helps me get there when you have
a coach, and I think Pittman's a really good coach.
I think he's a raw rock on a coach. They've
had two weeks to sit and stew over getting their
Tukas's whooped like that was belt to ass what Ole
Miss did to Arkansas.

Speaker 1 (01:49:59):
Yea, and I think that is where at home. If
you can get a lead, and you can get.

Speaker 5 (01:50:04):
A couple of plays defensively, you could figure out a
way to get some pressure on yours. It's gonna be tough.
Their all line's good. But I like the Arkansas offense.
I do think Dalen Green is consistent when he which
is me he's inconsistent, but when he does make those
highlight plays, they're impressive. And jack Quinn Jackson's off the
injury report, Armstrong's a stud receiver.

Speaker 1 (01:50:20):
Like they have guys on offense that can move the ball.
It's just can their defense get enough stops?

Speaker 2 (01:50:24):
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Speaker 4 (01:50:26):
We'll see how the Texas rushing defense can handle this attack, because,
like you said, when Green is consistent with Jackson out
of the backfield, this is a tandem that can scare
you real bad, real real bad, and so I'm very
curious to see how that holds up. Now look at
the other side of the fence, because I do like

(01:50:46):
Arkansas with the points. However, yours has been a stud
all season long. When healthy. He is a favorite to
win the Heisman now for good reason. Their success rate
offensively in the passing game is pretty astronomical this season,
and it really rests on his very capable shoulders. I

(01:51:09):
love watching a confident quarterback operate like a like almost
like a surgeon, and that's the feeling you get when
you watch the Longhorns offense when they're really rolling. It's surgical.
There's no emotion in it. You talk to a surgeon
about operating on your knee, he's gonna talk about, yeah,
you got the torn ligament. We're gonna do this. We're

(01:51:31):
gonna pull this off the bone, we're gonna anchor it down.
So you up in about an hour and a half
and we'll get you home and you're just gonna wanna
ice that sucker down. Meanwhile, in your mind, you're going
through this trauma. It's like, oh my gosh, my knee,
my season, Oh where am I gonna train this offseason.
This surgeon is just like eating an apple while he's
telling you what he's gonna do to you. But that's

(01:51:54):
what good operators do, and that's what quinn Ewers is.
He's going to open up this defense, he's gonna see
where all the broken parts are, and he's going to
go and fix him with this football right down your face.

Speaker 2 (01:52:06):
It's it's really it's fun to watch when they're rolling.

Speaker 4 (01:52:10):
So if Arkansas can get to them, rattle his cage
a little bit, slow down the passing attack, they've got
a shot. Because again, when when Green and Jackson when
they're together in the backfield, which you know hasn't been that,
you know, there's a little bit of an injury history
with Jackson this season. You you really have something special
cooking with the Hawks.

Speaker 1 (01:52:29):
You know what, when you mentioned ACL stuff rich real fast,
it makes me think of Rod Woodson. Remember the great
defensive back right with notably Steelers Ravens. He said one
time he had ACL surgery and they just numbed his knee.
He was wide awake for the whole surgery. They took
out the ligament, he touched the ligament, they did all

(01:52:52):
stop it he well, he's wide awake.

Speaker 5 (01:52:55):
That's crazy, crazy, I would think it freaking out. There
are certain people who, like, for one reason or another,
either don't want to or can't go under general anesthesia.

Speaker 2 (01:53:08):
So that's not the first time I've heard of that.

Speaker 1 (01:53:10):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (01:53:11):
I one time had a finger tendon operated on and
they sewed flaps of my skin open, and after they
sewed the tendon back together, they're like, hey, wiggle your
finger back and forth.

Speaker 2 (01:53:22):
Make sure you can open and close your fist.

Speaker 4 (01:53:24):
And when I was doing that, I could see the
part of the send the tendon they sewed back together
shooting up and down inside of my hand.

Speaker 2 (01:53:31):
It was like watching the terminator.

Speaker 1 (01:53:33):
I would never make it as a football player.

Speaker 5 (01:53:35):
I have no chance to ever make it as a
football player.

Speaker 1 (01:53:40):
You would need to put me in like a padded room.
Oh man, super fast, only take ten seconds something to
keep an eye on Tayling Green, Arkansas quarterback, his rushing
prop bet twenty three and a half, and immediately I think,
oh man, if he's healthy. That's a big if. Is
he healthy enough? And yes, Jared the sack against Scary,

(01:54:03):
real scary twenty three and a half. All of a
sudden sounds like a lot more than just twenty three
and a half when the sack yardages accounted for. Hey.
Shortly after the show, our podcast will be going up.
If you missed anything on today's show, be sure to
check it out. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you
get your podcasts. Be sure to also follow rate and
review it again. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you

(01:54:24):
get your podcasts, and you'll see the show posted right
after we get off the air. We've got the terminator,
Rich Herenberger over there. We've got Shared Smith FSR betting
analyst does not have a future as an NFL player yet.
I'm Brian No. Coming up next, Rapid Fire. We each
have three picks of peace and rumor has it two

(01:54:45):
of the three people on the show not named me
went three and oh last week. Let's see if they
can continue the hot streak. It is Fox Sports Radios
Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports
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(01:55:06):
bet in the NFL when a customer places an NFL
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score first, but score second BETMGM will return one hundred
percent of their stake back in cash. Hey, props to
the crew, our trusted producer Bo Benson, The Dodger Zone Podcast,
Chris Purfett, technical producer extraordinary. Check him out Pride a

(01:55:29):
Detroit podcast on digital Shout out Sager, our guy putting
up great content, can check it out on Twitter slash x. However,
you get down saying that I don't I still don't know.
I'm more Twitter myself. But hey, Top of the hour,
up on game less than ten minutes away, LaVar Arrington, TJ.
Hushman's Out of Plexico Burist. They have got you covered.

(01:55:51):
Keep it locked here on FSR. All right, we got
some picks to make. Let's do it.

Speaker 2 (01:55:58):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 1 (01:56:00):
Okay, Jared mister three and zero. Who last weeks you
called your shot, you came through. What do you like today?

Speaker 2 (01:56:06):
I did?

Speaker 1 (01:56:06):
We got a long way to go to get back
to five hundred, though.

Speaker 5 (01:56:08):
We will take Arkansas plus thirteen and a half at
home against Texas.

Speaker 1 (01:56:12):
Woo big suey.

Speaker 5 (01:56:14):
We need an inspired effort from the Arkansas defense today.

Speaker 1 (01:56:17):
They're off the by after getting their porches handed to
them by Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago.

Speaker 5 (01:56:22):
Sam Pittman, fire up the troops. We need the defensive
coordinator Travis Williams that have a big day.

Speaker 1 (01:56:26):
Taylor Green no turnovers. Arkansas covers the number.

Speaker 5 (01:56:29):
Florida plus three and a half home dog against LSU.
Both teams all blowout losses. LSU probably out of the
SEC title race. Florida needs to win two out of
their last three to.

Speaker 1 (01:56:38):
Get Bowl eligible.

Speaker 5 (01:56:39):
They play LSU this week, eh, Ole Miss next week,
eh and then they close against Florida State. They gotta
beat either LSU or ole Miss or else they ain't
going bowling. And I'll be honest, they have some dudes
up the front. You look at that Florida d line,
Banks Jackson in the middle, north of three hundred and
twenty pounds. I think they shut down the LSU run game.
They turned Garrett neus Meyer into a thrower and that's
bad news for ness Meyer on the And finally, Georgia

(01:57:01):
best bet of the week minus nine and a half
against Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (01:57:04):
Gave this out for the MGM video yesterday.

Speaker 5 (01:57:06):
Kirby scheme up a defensive masterpiece for me Nico on
the road off the concussion, tough environment night game at
Sanford Stadium. I think Georgia, hey, if the playoffs started today,
ab out they need style points they get back in
today as they beat Tennessee with marchin.

Speaker 4 (01:57:21):
Okay, I love that Georgia pick, so I'm going to
back that up too. Give me Georgia minus the nine
and a half hosting the Balls Kirby Smart in a
must win.

Speaker 2 (01:57:31):
I like the dogs.

Speaker 4 (01:57:32):
Nebraska heads to the Coliseum to face the Trojans. The
Huskers are on a three game slide, but they made
that change at OC. I think the volatility favors Nebraska.
I like the Huskers on the money line, so I
love them getting some points on the road. Penn State
favored by twenty nine and a half at Perdue. I'm

(01:57:52):
holding my nose placing this bet because you have to
pack your own energy when you play Perdue. Perdue doesn't
even want to play at Perdue. But give me the
Dnies minus twenty nine and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:58:03):
Oh boy, Okay, all right, that sounded like some slight
disagreement or what do you think they're Jared Ish? Hold
your noses.

Speaker 5 (01:58:11):
Definitely would not bet produce.

Speaker 1 (01:58:14):
Okay, here we go, Jared, You and I same fox
fall over here, let's go, Dylan Samson. Tennessee running backs
had a strong season under ninety five and a half
rushing yards. Not against the Dogs in this spot ain't happening.
I'm gonna go parlay on you. I owe my picks,
by the way. Okay, give me two lane money line

(01:58:36):
against Navy. Give me Georgia money line against Tennessee. I
just don't see that losing. It's minus one thirty three.
I like it. It's a fair game. That's within the
limits of what we fair game. Yeah, I if that
bet loses, I I just shake my shoulders and just go.
I shrugged my shoulders. I shake them too. I shrug

(01:58:57):
them and I shake him. That's how much. And then
Rich Ornberger on the radio call tonight San Diego State
at UNL vote, I'll do it, Oh boy, give me
UNLV's quarterback hajaj Malik Williams to run wild over seventy
two and a half rush yards in this contest. He
runs it at least twelve times per game since he

(01:59:20):
became the starter. I think Rich just don't say it
on the call, but you'll think in your head, gosh
freaking no, nailed this one. D rat

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