Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Oh, good morning, welcome in.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Here's we get your set for the ball buffet College
Football Playoff Action NFL Week eighteen. We got everything right
here and for starters. Look, we've had a good run
on countdown to kick off, but this is our breaking point.
I don't think we can be friends anymore. I really don't.

(00:28):
This is where it all crashes to a halt. Guys,
ladies who've.

Speaker 3 (00:32):
Been enjoying this show so many it's been it's been fun.
I mean there's so many memories we could go back on.
But but yeah, this will be our last show as
Notre Dame takes on Penn State.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Who would have fuck it?

Speaker 3 (00:50):
The semi finals of the College Football Playoffs round.

Speaker 4 (00:53):
I can't believe we're here.

Speaker 5 (00:56):
Crazy, pretty nice, just crazy. This is the only thing
I'll say before you start, Brian. Yeah, do you remember
Ace Rostein and Casino?

Speaker 4 (01:05):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:05):
I want an equal amount of blueberries in each muffin.
I want an equal equal amounts.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
Do you know how long that's going to take? Yeah? Yeah, sure,
continue my friend? Okay, Well, yeah, fair enough.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
I think that applies more to me because it's it's
two on one over I'm saying, you.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Are the host of the show, so you get to
lead that, you get to steer the ship.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
Well that's true, Yeah, that's true. But for anybody who's like,
what are these knuckleheads talking about? You can't make this up.
You really can't. I am from South Bend, Indiana. It's
my hometown. I grew up going to Notre Dame campus
to just like bump into football players and get their
autographs when I was in like grade school, you know,

(01:55):
cool like. And then you've got Rich Ornberger who's a
Pence Date All American and Jared Smith is a Penn
State alum, and it's Notre Dame versus Penn State in
the College football Playoffs semi final. And think about the
histories of these schools, proud traditions, lean years in terms

(02:15):
of winning a national championship or being even being in
the mix. And here they are butting heads. You couldn't
You couldn't script this, ye.

Speaker 5 (02:25):
Pick them too, like it it's a toss up, like
it's not like any any one team's got this like
decisive advantage either.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
No, I mean, and as it should be when you
boil it down to the final four. Thank goodness, it
looks like that on paper. It really has on both
sides of this bracket, and we will talk about both
sides at some point. I don't know, but it really
does feel like a pretty even semi final here.

Speaker 4 (02:52):
But yeah, everything you just said is right. It's historic.

Speaker 3 (02:56):
I remember getting pretty lost in the moment the first
time I played against Notre Dame as at Penn State
Nidney Lyon, I went to South Bend, I was on campus.

Speaker 4 (03:10):
That was Brady Quinn's year.

Speaker 3 (03:12):
They had a receiver named Jeff Samarga who actually ended
up becoming a pretty talented starting pitcher in Major League Baseball.
But it was one of those moments in my football career.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
My dad had.

Speaker 3 (03:27):
This uh, he had this this uh saying and he
still says it every once in a while, but it
was more so when I was playing football. Uh, when
I left home. He was like, pick up a pebble.
Pick up a pebble. Every time you think you're doing
something that maybe in the moment, you know, it's just

(03:48):
another day at work for you.

Speaker 4 (03:49):
You know what I mean.

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Like, but like, but think think about your brother or me,
or your cousin or your friends who will never have
the opportunity that you have because he's like, I promise
you one day you're gonna look at that pocket full
of pebbles. You're gonna be like I did a bunch
of cool stuff. And I remember, you know, touchdown Jesus

(04:11):
walking the same field, you know where Rudy Rudiger, you know,
like the whole thing, like you know, you grow up
watching movies and you're like, I can't believe I'm doing
this right now. We got waxed by Notre Dame that day.
We got but we returned the favor and that we did,
we did, they ended up having.

Speaker 4 (04:29):
It was a home. It was a home and home.

Speaker 3 (04:31):
So Notre Dame had to come to Beaver Stadium and
we put the We put the beatdown on them on
a foggy evening the next year, which was a lot
of fun because it really did feel like all right.
We went out there and I do think a lot
of people were sort of wide eyed in wonderment of
where we were and we weren't ready to compete that year,
and they beat us up pretty good. And Brady Quinn,

(04:53):
you know, for for in one of our Fox Sports
radio Campadre's over here. I mean he's a tremendous podcaster now,
but he's a really talented college quarterback and he had
a good day that day. But I digress that matchup
that we were just discussing it. It really does feel
like two traditional football powers going up against each other

(05:16):
for a bite at the bigger apple that lays ahead.

Speaker 4 (05:19):
Because it is. That's all this is, and that's that's
a ton of fun. I love this matchup so much.

Speaker 5 (05:25):
When the universe opens a portal, you have no choice
but to step through it. That's how I feel about
this situation. First of all, you just mentioned Brady Quinn.
He does a show with another.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
Penn State alone like you have it again. It's just
it's like this like.

Speaker 5 (05:40):
Made for TV kind of like moment where we're all
kind of marching towards destiny. But we have both made
history rich both of us. Because you were on the
field during the Orange Bowl. I was in the stands.
That was the last time Penn State played in the
Orange Bowl January third, two thousand and six, the last
time Pence they played Notre Dame.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
We both were in attendance.

Speaker 5 (06:01):
You were obviously playing in the game, and obviously I
was a drunk kid in the stance watching back on
September eighth, o seven, So like it's just this crazy
full circle weird Like, ay, we were both like it's
been so long since Penn State has played in both
of these situations, an Orange Bowl and Notre Dame, and

(06:21):
we get to experience both on the same night. And
we have all of these cross work ties with people
that we work with that what de Penn State noted like,
it's just it really is one of those the universe
is just like kind of telling us like, Hey, this
is what's supposed to happen. And I don't know about
you guys, but I will one hundred percent be in
Miami next week.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
Cannot wait.

Speaker 5 (06:42):
I have family down there, so I'll be at the
you know, spend some time with some family as well
while also attending the game.

Speaker 1 (06:46):
It's going to be a blast, this entire playoff.

Speaker 5 (06:51):
I know the early part of it was a little
bit mushy, but I think we firmed up over the
last few days, right, Like the games have gotten really exciting.
We now have for elite programs. We're gonna have a
new national title, a new national champion that we haven't
had in a few years.

Speaker 1 (07:08):
Which is nice.

Speaker 5 (07:09):
I think Ohio State was the last team that's ever
that's wanted in this group. Texas will also want it
during that Vince Young time, but it's it does feel
like we've arrived at the right destination, even though maybe
the road was a little bit rocky along the way.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Yeah, that's one of the broader things I think of
heading into the semi finals, and I wonder how much
you're gonna hear this, because I would expect to hear
it some as. There will be people that will say, well,
I mean, listen this Ohio State Texas game, whoever wins
that it's gonna win a national championship, and listen, that
very well might be the case. But I just want

(07:45):
to push back on the thought of whoever wins that game,
it's done, it's over with, it's decided.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Ohio State is.

Speaker 2 (07:54):
On a roll right now and they very well could
win a national championship. But do you think that Texas
is just no chance, know how they win a game
against Ohio State. They have no shot, no possible way, Like,
that's just not true. What if Texas won, you think
Penn State or Notre Dame doesn't have a shot against Texas.
You think Penn State or Notre Dame has no shot

(08:16):
against Ohio State.

Speaker 4 (08:18):
This is a team.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
They look like a force now. A couple of games
ago they lost to Michigan. But I would push back
on the thought of, Hey, whoever wins this Ohio State
Texas game, that's it.

Speaker 1 (08:28):
They're the champions.

Speaker 2 (08:29):
I think you're gonna hear way more of no one's
beating Ohio State.

Speaker 1 (08:33):
And that might be true, but I think that.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
Sometimes you can take it too far, as if it's
already written in sharpie.

Speaker 1 (08:40):
I just don't think that's the case.

Speaker 3 (08:42):
I think fans and an analyst and opinion makers all
can be blinded with short memories sometimes, and it's nobody's fault.

Speaker 4 (08:52):
I get it because it happens to me. Sometimes.

Speaker 3 (08:55):
We're all human, We all err and that is one
of the errors that we make as human beings, that
we remember recency bias, and so you go and you
make bold assumptions about what's next based on what's happened recently.
But that's not how life works, you know, especially not
in football. I mean, it is a chess game played

(09:17):
with twenty two live bodies on the field at all times.
There is no telling what's going to happen. Because it's
strike counterstrike, and it's a sixty minute battle. You have
no idea, and when you have talented programs, it gets
even harder to determine outcomes. You can't tell me that
Penn State or Notre Dame doesn't have a chance against

(09:38):
Texas or Ohio State because those two teams on this
side of the bracket, the Penn State Notre Dame side.

Speaker 4 (09:44):
No doubt deserve to be here. They fought their ass
off to be here.

Speaker 3 (09:49):
And don't get me wrong, I do feel like there
is a heavier amount of NFL talent on both of
the opposing rosters as it currently stands with OSU and
with Texas.

Speaker 4 (10:03):
But don't count out Notre Dame.

Speaker 3 (10:06):
Don't count out Penn State because it doesn't make sense
to Like you said, lowly, Michigan who's having a terrible
season can knock off one of the best teams in
the country. One of the other best teams in the
country can knock off one of the other best.

Speaker 4 (10:24):
Teams in the country. If that makes sense, it's possible.

Speaker 5 (10:28):
Yeah, I think the fact that they've already played each
other this year makes it possible. It was a close game,
and I know Penn State kind of got bullied in
the second half of that game. Yeah, but it was
still a one score game and Penn State did not
look nearly as overmatched against Ohio State as Oregon did.
And to be fair, Oregon looked overwhelming for Penn State

(10:50):
offensively for most of that game in the Big Ten Championships.
So again, it's like the cross permutation, you know, the
law of whatever law you want to talk.

Speaker 1 (10:59):
About out you know, the transitive property. This team beats
his team.

Speaker 5 (11:03):
I think the fact that it's a conference matchup with
Ohio State and Penn State makes it makes the Nitney
Lions live now. The buck guys have owned this, this rivalry,
this this Big Ten matchup for a long time. If
it's Texas, then yeah, I think either in Penn State
or Notre Dame absolutely is live.

Speaker 1 (11:21):
And I don't want to.

Speaker 5 (11:22):
Completely dismiss Texas's chances of winning that game. I think
it's the on the Penn State side, I think the
rest advantage favors them, you know, the having a less
day for Notre Dame, even two less days now after
the postponement. I think that obviously favors Penn State after
after what was a very physical game for Notre Dame

(11:43):
against Georgia. Riley Leonard had a ton of carries, and
and and and Jeremiah Love got nicked up a little bit.
So I do think there's some edge to be had
on that side. But if it's if it's Ohio State
or Texas, I mean, obviously both of those teams I
think are going to be favored in the game against
Penn State or Notre Dame, whoever they play.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
And yeah, I mean, let's let's see.

Speaker 5 (12:04):
Let's see what the next level of recency bias gives us.
Like there is a vibe about the Ohio State Texas game,
like maybe Ohio State just showed us their best, like
that was their best. Can they do that again for
sixty minutes? Texas probably didn't show us their best in
the Beach Bowl, And can they raise their level and

(12:24):
play better than they did against Arizona State.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
They played, they played okay, they were running the ball well,
or excuse me, they were.

Speaker 5 (12:29):
They were throwing it well, they couldn't run it and
they couldn't, you know, get a stop in the second half.
But my vibe says whoever gets whoever comes out healthiest
and cleanest, will be the one that has the narrative
going into the championship game.

Speaker 1 (12:43):
Yeah, well that's yeah.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
You made me think about that regular season game between
Ohio State and Penn State, and I still can't believe
Ohio State made that interception in the end zone. It
looked like it was going to be a clear Penn
State touchdown, and all of a sudden, Ohio State celebrating
and you're like.

Speaker 1 (13:01):
Wait a minute, what's going on over here? They intercepted
the ball.

Speaker 2 (13:05):
It was insane, but that's like, this is football, you know,
go back.

Speaker 1 (13:10):
To the last Notre Dame game.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
You might have really liked Georgia in that game, but
it's like, hey, you force a couple of turnovers, you
get a kickoff return for a touchdown, All kinds of
crazy stuff can happen. So I just I know that
Ohio State looks like a machine right now, and if
they play their best, they're probably gonna beat all of
the teams that are remaining. But like you guys are saying,

(13:34):
it doesn't mean that you're automatically going to play your best.
There are games where, again, go.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
Bet they just lots to Michigan just a couple of
weeks ago.

Speaker 2 (13:44):
So yeah, let's not write anything in sharpy jest yet.

Speaker 1 (13:48):
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Speaker 2 (13:50):
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(14:12):
bonus bets if that bet loses. We're often freaking running.
We've got Rich Hornberger, Penn State all American. It's gonna
pay me to say all this Penn State stuff, you know,
Jared Smith FSR.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
We get through it.

Speaker 4 (14:24):
You can do it.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
If anyone can do it, it's you, your pro Thank you.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
I'm Brian though proudly from South Betting, Indiana.

Speaker 1 (14:31):
You know, come it up next.

Speaker 2 (14:33):
This is one of the craziest games you will ever
see and one of the scariest players as well. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 6 (14:45):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.

Speaker 2 (14:57):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to ki pick Off
presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 1 (15:02):
All season long.

Speaker 2 (15:03):
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touchdown bet in the NFL. When a customer plays an
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doesn't score first, but score second, bet MGM will return
one of their stakeback in cash. All right, fellas, So
on the other side of the bracket, you know, as

(15:25):
Jared said earlier, like an equal amount of blueberry.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
Equal amount of blueberry, right.

Speaker 6 (15:33):
Man.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
So you've got Texas surviving against Arizona State, and then
you have the force that is Ohio State right now
and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Let's start with the best
game so far of the playoff, in one of the
best games of the entire college football season, Texas surviving
in double overtime against Arizona State. What a freaking crazy game,

(15:58):
look like Texas was gonna win easily.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
They're up twenty four to eight.

Speaker 2 (16:02):
Looked like they were going to cover the spread easily,
and then all of a sudden, you've got this Cam
Skataboo trick play, throwing a touchdown pass on fourth down
and they get the two point conversion. Okay, it's an
eight point game. Another touchdown, another two point conversion. It's
like we're heading overtime here, Fellas. This is insane. Texas
missed the last second field goal that would want it.

(16:25):
The next thing, you know, Texas needs to convert fourth
and thirteen to even keep the game going. They score
a touchdown in the first overtime, then they score another
touchdown and they survive insanity, and somehow Texas still has
a pulse here against Ohio State, that was a wild ride.

Speaker 3 (16:47):
It was a wild ride, and I think the emotional
toll that that win will have on Texas could have
an effect on the next round. There's times where you
can just you know, swallow a close win and say
to yourself, all right, well, we know we're a better
team than that, and you can move on from it

(17:08):
easily as a group. And sometimes you know, you get
physically and mentally and emotionally beat up during a turbulent
victory like that, and it can have an effect on
the adjoining week, and so look out for a slow
start from Texas, potentially against Ohio State in the next round.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
It's a possibility. I mean. Now, don't get me wrong.
I don't think when we're.

Speaker 3 (17:32):
Talking about the College Football Playoffs semi final, anybody's gonna
have a hard time getting up for the game, getting ready,
get out there, being excited for this one. But there
is an investment every single game. You have no idea
what waits behind the other side of those doors when
you're walking down the tunnel. And I'm not gonna say

(17:53):
it was easier for any of the three other teams
who've made it this far, but it certainly was the
hardest for Texas. There's no question about it. Arizona State
gave them all they could handle.

Speaker 5 (18:06):
Yeah, I wasn't really impressed with Arizona State's atticct and
what they were able to do defensively, really disrupting Texas's
offense at points in that game, I really thought. And
to be fair, like Texas outgained him in yards for play,
the success rate was pretty much even, but I was
not impressed with Texas's defense creating plays in the second

(18:29):
half to close that football game.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
The halfback option pass to Scatabo. If you watch the throw, it's.

Speaker 5 (18:37):
Almost like the Texas defensive back gave up on the play,
like it was weird, Like the throw was really underthrow.
Like that was the point that really changed that game.
Texas was, you know, in cruise control. Arizona State made
a couple plays, and then all of a sudden, they.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
Run this halfback option pass and Scatabo.

Speaker 5 (18:58):
I think if you asked them, probably he's like, yeah,
I didn't make a great throw. It was really underthrown,
and the Texas defensive back played it terribly, and the
Arizona State receiver undercut it, made the catch and just
kind of like waltzed in. It really was a fluky play.
But hey, you credit Arizona State. They made the call,
gutsy call. Scatabou made the throw A lot of times.
That throw is really off, Like at least he gave

(19:20):
his receiver a chance to make the play.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
But I thought it was really misplayed.

Speaker 5 (19:24):
And a lot of moments in that game where Texas
had a chance to grab it by the throat and
the quote I got from multiple people in my cirt
like they just played with their food in that game,
Like they just didn't finish the job. You could say
the same thing about what Penn State did in the
Boise State game. The differences. Penn State ran it really
well in that game. Texas did not run it well

(19:46):
in Arizona State, which was really surprising. Actually they threw
it well, did not run it well in Arizona State.
Arizona State had more explosive plays, they had fewer turnovers,
they had more havoc. Like again, if you just look
at the down to down stuff in the second half,
Arizona State should have won that game and the fourth
and thirteen right, you know, the penalty that didn't happen

(20:09):
on the targeting Like there were some moments that I
think went against Arizona State, But the Sun Devils out
played the Longhorns in the second half of that football game.

Speaker 1 (20:19):
And I think that is you got to fix it.

Speaker 5 (20:22):
Like if you're Sark, there's no way that you look
at that film and you're like, yeah, we were the
better team. I really think they've got a lot of
adjustments to make before this next round.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
I don't know how and I know Texas fans don't
want to hear this at all. I don't know how
targeting was not called.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
If that's not targeting, nothing's targeting.

Speaker 2 (20:40):
Then we don't have targeting in college I don't know
what it is that, dude. If that's not a college
football playoff game, If this is I don't know, Week
five Northwestern hosting IU or whatever, Right, that's targeting all day.

Speaker 1 (20:56):
It checks every box.

Speaker 7 (20:58):
I don't even think it's a matter of if it's
college football players enough, if that was against a if
that was an Arizona State player committing committing targeting, that's.

Speaker 1 (21:07):
Time and score. Is why they didn't throw it.

Speaker 5 (21:09):
Yeah, I think they thought it was going to decide
the game if they threw it, and they didn't want
to decide.

Speaker 7 (21:14):
But it also you could argue that not calling it
decides it in favor of Texas too.

Speaker 4 (21:18):
Like that.

Speaker 7 (21:19):
That's that's the nightmare of these swallow the whistle arguments.
At the end of the day, by swallowing the whistle,
you're still determining it for someone else.

Speaker 1 (21:26):
They definitely swallowed the whistle. It's like deep in the intestines, man. Yeah,
it's stuck there for a while it's yeah.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
I think we can all agree it was targeting, and
I actually think that Chris, if it were opposite, I
don't know if that flag is thrown because I also
don't know if you're an official, if you're willing to
end Arizona States run, you know, with a call.

Speaker 4 (21:52):
That's the tricky thing.

Speaker 3 (21:53):
Again, part of football is human error, and part of
the human error that's a part of football is the
officiating crew because along with the twenty two players, you
have this staff of striped shirts who have to make calls,
and all of these calls that can have a major
effect on the outcome of games.

Speaker 4 (22:13):
For the most part of our subjective.

Speaker 3 (22:16):
Outside of you know, clear false starts or off sides
or did he or didn't he stay in bounds? You know,
some of those are even difficult to call. But I
mean we're talking about holding or pass interference or targeting.

Speaker 4 (22:32):
All of these are highly subjective.

Speaker 3 (22:34):
Now subjectively, I think the mass majority of people who
watch this game or saw the clips of that play
would agree it's targeting. But what I have thrown that flag?
I mean, when I really think about being in that
game as an official, thinking about whether or not I
pull the flag from my pocket, and I'm the reason
why this game turns out differently, do I throw that flag?

Speaker 4 (22:56):
Well?

Speaker 5 (22:57):
Correct me if I'm wrong. How isn't a booth review
to it was that they reviewed it and they still
didn't call it. They still no, but it was like
it wasn't called on the field. I think it was
like from the booth they said, hey, that might be targeting.

Speaker 1 (23:09):
Well and they still and they reviewed and they still
said now we're good.

Speaker 4 (23:12):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (23:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (23:13):
It was a strange, but it reminds me of the
Super Bowl between the Eagles and the Patriots where they
just changed the catch rule on the fly and it's.

Speaker 1 (23:22):
Like, guys, we okay, cool. I guess I don't.

Speaker 2 (23:25):
Know, Like, yeah, we have this standard rule the whole time,
and then in the Super Bowl it just gets changed.
And the same thing with targeting and college football. We've
had a whole season. Listen, we could get into the
whole nuts and bolts of it. I think that the
penalty is way too harsh for targeting in college football.

Speaker 4 (23:46):
Agreed.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
Where this happens in the first half, gone you're ejected.
It happens in the second half, you're ejected, and you
missed the first half of the next game. I think
that's way too heavy handed, but this is what it is,
and it might not have been easy to make that call,
but it's obvious that's what it was, and that's your
job to call it.

Speaker 1 (24:08):
I'll put it this way.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
If that's obviously, Arizona State fans are upset, and rightfully so.
If the shoes on the other foot, you don't think
Texas fans are like, bro, what are we doing here?
That's good targeting all day. So I don't know that
was an unfortunate one. But on the other side, again,
an equal amount of blueberries. The Ohio State Buckey's scary

(24:30):
player Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Speaker 1 (24:34):
This freaking guy.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
What he did against Oregon seven catches for one hundred
and eighty seven yards and two touchdowns. In two playoff
games right against Oregon and Tennessee, Jeremiah Smith thirteen catches
for two hundred and ninety yards and four touchdowns. That's
what he's done in two games. It's insane. And I'll

(24:56):
say this too. As awesome as Jeremiah Smith was, I
think that he's taken so much focus that we're overlooking
how dominant Oregon. Ohio State's rush defense was against Oregon.

Speaker 4 (25:08):
Have you seed?

Speaker 1 (25:09):
Did you see what Oregon did on the ground?

Speaker 2 (25:12):
How about twenty eight carries for negative twenty three yards?

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Oh, I know, and a lot of.

Speaker 2 (25:17):
That is sack yardage, and that's goofy and college football.
But Jordan James is a good running back before he
got hurt, seven carries for fourteen yards. Noah Whittington six
carries for three yards. Yeah, he did have at a touchdown,
but like Ohio State completely shut down the running game.
And oh, by the way, in this matchup, Texas couldn't

(25:41):
run the ball at all against Arizona State.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
So you have to ask yourself.

Speaker 2 (25:44):
If Texas can't run it against Arizona State, how effective
are they going to be on the ground against Ohio State?

Speaker 4 (25:50):
Not very? I mean to be honest.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
If Ohio State packs the same lunch they did against Oregon,
not very.

Speaker 4 (25:56):
Jeremiah wasn't a bullfrog, he was a unicle.

Speaker 3 (26:00):
He was incredible in that game. I mean in these
playoffs he is. He is the player right now that
every team has to have circled when when you look
at these four teams, he is him and Warren from
Penn State. Those two guys are the two pieces on

(26:22):
the chessboard that nobody really has put together a good
enough plan for so far this season.

Speaker 4 (26:28):
It just it just they're they're unstoppable.

Speaker 3 (26:31):
And I would have included camp Skataboo in this conversation
if you were still playing. He's unfortunately not. You know,
it's it's there are certain players who are just gonna
get theirs and then you just have to figure out
what to do around them. And so that's the task
against OSU. You have to live in the reality that
there are gonna be some explosives and you're gonna give

(26:52):
up some big plays to Jeremiah Smith. So how do
you respond to the rest of the game plan is
what will determine that how come of this game.

Speaker 5 (27:01):
So part of my process after big games is I
go and I just I do a very simple, you know,
autopsy on the game. And the first thing I always
do is I grade yards per play, net yards per play?
How many more yards per play did you you gained
in the opponent And a lot of times that and
the success rate will kind of give you the answer
to why the game played out the way that it did.

Speaker 1 (27:23):
I haven't done it for every game this year.

Speaker 5 (27:25):
I've only done it for some of the bigger games
because it's just so many freaking games. This is the
first game that I've seen this year, high profile where
there was almost a five yard difference in net yards
per play. Well, Ohio State gained eight point seventy five
yards per play, Oregon gained three point eight. Like, when
you're gaining half of a first down more per play

(27:47):
than the opposing team, it's it's domination. I mean, the
success rate wasn't that far off. Oregon did have some
success later in the game. They actually had more explosives
in the game. But the have it created by the
Ohio State defense. They had a havoc.

Speaker 1 (28:00):
Great in the game against Oregon's offense.

Speaker 5 (28:03):
That means on one out of every five plays, Ohio
State was in the backfield creating havoc. Like they were
just an unstoppable force on offense on defense. That was
I think the and I know they played great against Tennessee.
It wasn't dis lopsided against Tennessee. This was the best
game any one team has played. This is the best

(28:24):
data point I think that I can tell you that
happened in college football. This year, Like, I don't think
there was a team that played better against an opponent
considering the opponent Like Tennessee was down, their defense was banged.

Speaker 1 (28:36):
Up, they were on the road, they were freshman quarterback.

Speaker 5 (28:38):
Like this was neutral site, best on best, everyone's healthy,
and Ohio State just absolutely got like it was so
one sided.

Speaker 1 (28:49):
I think it was the most one sided game of
the year. Yeah it was. It was pretty crazy, man,
There's no doubt it was. And that's the thing.

Speaker 2 (28:58):
There been so many overreactions in the college football Playoff
where remember going back to Week one, well the first
week of the playoff, and it was just like you
had to just beat downs chalk. Every home team won
and it was like the committee screwed this up. They
got the wrong teams in here. And then after this
last week, it was every team that had to buy

(29:21):
lost every one of them, zero for four.

Speaker 1 (29:25):
And some of the reaction was like is a bye
a bad thing?

Speaker 2 (29:29):
And look, man, I think everything is explainable. Really accept
the Ohio State win, like Jared said, just how dominant
it was.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
Yeah, but this is this is year one.

Speaker 2 (29:43):
Of a twelve team playoff, Like this idea that you
know the committee is going to just screw it up
going forward, getting the wrong teams in and all these
teams that have a bye week, they're kind of screwed
because they're rusty. Come on, I think we're taking that
way too far if you go through them, like Penn

(30:04):
State beat Boise State, is that shocking?

Speaker 4 (30:07):
No?

Speaker 2 (30:09):
Yeah, Notre Dame beat Georgia that that game was like
a coin toss game. Point spread wise, it's not shocking
Notre Dame won that. And then like the Texas Arizona
State game that did every Arizona State's a double digit
like underdog here, it's not shocking they lost. I mean,
the game itself was wild how it played out, but

(30:31):
the only outlier was Ohio State crushing Oregon. This idea
that buys are bad.

Speaker 1 (30:36):
Guys. What are we doing? This is year one of
the playoff.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
Let's just not overreact to the first thing we see
in every single week.

Speaker 4 (30:44):
You know that.

Speaker 1 (30:44):
That's what's happened so far.

Speaker 3 (30:46):
Yeah, I completely agree with everything you just said. It's
like it's like saying, hey, it rained on Memorial Day
this year.

Speaker 4 (30:54):
So that's it. Memorial Days are rainy.

Speaker 3 (30:57):
I don't know why anybody I hit that Memorial Days
are good barbecue days.

Speaker 4 (31:01):
Who wants to barbecue in the rain.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
We need to build a gazebo over the grill. Nobody
wants to be outside when it's raining. I mean ridiculous.
Memorial Day is a terrible grilling day. Well, no, no, no,
Hang on a second, are you sure the problem is
where this is placed on the calendar? Are you sure
it's not because you don't have enough information. Maybe maybe

(31:24):
wait a couple more years and see how the other
Memorial Days pan out before you say that Memorial Days
a bad barbecue day, before you get all hot and
bothered about this. But nobody wants to wait. Everybody wants
to rush to judgment. I shouldn't say everybody. There are
reasonable voices out there, but we know which voice is
cut through. It's the most inflammatory, most offended, most insulted

(31:48):
voices who have the biggest platform, who talk the loudest. Okay,
but let's be real. Let's be realistic about this. This
is the best way so far that the Committee or
College Football or NC double A has found to come
up with a national champion. And there's really no arguing.

Speaker 4 (32:08):
That so far this is the best way.

Speaker 3 (32:10):
Because you are giving twelve teams a realistic chance in
single elimination to fight their way to the top of
the mountain.

Speaker 4 (32:19):
I get it. The bye weeks are weird. I get it.
Maybe the postseason should be reseeded. I get it. It's imperfect,
but it's the best we've seen.

Speaker 3 (32:29):
So what you're gonna say, because you only got three
blueberry muffins in this muffin versus the other muffin that
has seen the blueberries, you're telling me that that's not still
a good muffin.

Speaker 4 (32:40):
It's a good muffin.

Speaker 1 (32:42):
We need equal amount.

Speaker 4 (32:43):
That's Bobby.

Speaker 1 (32:43):
I mean, you guys do know what I'm talking about.
That it's my fate. That is the best city.

Speaker 5 (32:47):
It's a great any movie the audience needs to go
see Cassina.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
That's your favorite movie. That's at the top, jaredor.

Speaker 5 (32:53):
I really think it's in the top. It's Caddy Shacks
up there, but it's not.

Speaker 1 (32:56):
I think Casino's number one. I know, I know, I
know we.

Speaker 5 (32:59):
Would have completely Adding to the rivalry is our is
our loathing of of our opinions of Caddy Shack.

Speaker 2 (33:05):
Yeah yeah, Rich you a Caddyshack guy, huge Caddy Shock guy.

Speaker 4 (33:11):
Of course, so the best movies of all time.

Speaker 1 (33:12):
Bride's Crazy, I love.

Speaker 4 (33:14):
I'm a huge Caddyshack fan.

Speaker 3 (33:15):
And and unfortunately, because I'm I'm such a dope that
like caddy Shack, probably makes my top five. The movie
Bad Bad Santa might make my top five movies.

Speaker 1 (33:27):
Oh wow, that's an upset. That's the biggest upset of
the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (33:30):
Right yeah, right there, that's the sun devil sneaking into the.

Speaker 2 (33:35):
I mean, wow, goodness. I thought the Penn State thing
was gonna be tough.

Speaker 1 (33:38):
To deal with.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
Yeah, this is a new low rich head stayed all American.
We've got Jared Smith FSR betting analysts. They're both Caddyshack guys. Apparently,
you know, I'm Brian No, not a Caddyshack guy whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (33:54):
But hey, you know, but you like Rodney Bankerfield though.

Speaker 2 (33:57):
I love all the actors, love them, Love Rodney Dangerfield,
love Chevy Chase, love Bill Murray. Horrible movie, not even funny,
just bad Saturday Night Live scenes, one after another after another.

Speaker 4 (34:08):
Oh there's a.

Speaker 2 (34:08):
Baby Ruth in the pool. Oh my gosh, it's so funny.
It's not funny at all. It sucks. Not good movie. Sorry,
that's that's just me. Hit me up on X if
you want at the show. All right, coming up next,
the parlay pladder. We each have one selection. We pull
it together for a greater payout. That's on the way.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 6 (34:31):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.
Every time you make a wager at BETMGM, you earn
BETMGM Rewards points that can be redeemed for things like
bonus bets or converted to MGM rewards points that can
be used towards dining shows and hotel rooms at over
twenty MGM resorts.

Speaker 1 (35:03):
Har let's do this.

Speaker 6 (35:05):
Check this out, ar late letter.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
All right, Jared, we start with you. We each have
one selection, pull it together for a greater payout.

Speaker 1 (35:14):
Where do you think, Oh, he forgot the most important thing.
It's Tonny time.

Speaker 4 (35:18):
It's Toudy time. All right.

Speaker 5 (35:21):
We're gonna go a little different with Tonty time. Today,
it's incentive time. That is the beauty of week eighteen
in the NFL. I'll give you boys the option. Do
you want me to go super juicy or super safe conservative?

Speaker 4 (35:37):
No juice up?

Speaker 1 (35:39):
Yeah, all right, we're juicing this baby up. Okay. Zach
Ertz is having himself a season.

Speaker 5 (35:45):
He is two touchdowns away from another massive bonus on
his contract. He actually caught two touchdowns last week. As
I think, it's apparent to me that Washington really likes
zach Ertz. They have an owner that's willing to spend.
That's an important part of the incentive process. Is the owner,
is the coach? Are they players? Coaches players owners? Are
they willing to spend? Are they willing to give this

(36:06):
money to the player? At the end of this season,
I think all of those boxes are checked for zach Ertz.
He is a massive, massive dog to score a touchdown
in the game against the Cowboys tomorrow plus two ten. Again,
he needs two touchdowns to hit the incentive. You can
bet the two touchdown prop. It's like fifteen to one,
but we're gonna put for the purposes of the parlay,

(36:28):
zach Ertz plus two ten. The first leg of the
Tudy time parlay platter today.

Speaker 4 (36:34):
Ooh ooh, I like it a lot.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
All right, I'm gonna go with Michael Penix Junior. Touchdown
Michael Pennick Junior is what I like to call him.

Speaker 4 (36:44):
Now.

Speaker 3 (36:44):
He's only thrown for one over his start, but I
will say the other team is.

Speaker 1 (36:51):
Still catchy deler touchdowns. Just one touchdown, that's all you need.

Speaker 3 (36:56):
It's Tonny time. All you need is one. No, I'm
really impressed with him. He gets the Commanders in a loss,
a close loss. He was on time with some outbreaking routes.
He worked the middle of the field. He was pressured
fourteen times, did not take a sack, which is it
shows his acumen. It shows his ability to respond to
pressure favorably. I like Michael Pennick Junior. I like the

(37:20):
growth that we've seen. It's his third start. You're knocking
off some of the rusts from sitting on the sideline,
and you're seeing the speed of the game against one
of the worst watch The Giants were pretty bad as well,
but one of the worst defenses that he's faced over
the course of his very short rookie season as a
starter against Carolina Panthers here, So yeah, give me, give

(37:42):
me Pennick Junior throwing for one.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
Okay, that's touchdown, Michael Pennock over and over one and
a half passing touchdowns.

Speaker 5 (37:49):
They count just the same. It's minus one ten at
bet MGM. So he's got to throw two. But still okay,
he makes sense, absolutely makes sense.

Speaker 2 (37:56):
Okay, So same sort of question here, do you guys
to go as close to a sure thing as possible
and you're paying at tax for it?

Speaker 1 (38:06):
Or do you want plus money?

Speaker 4 (38:08):
Wick? I know where your head's at here.

Speaker 5 (38:10):
If it's Derrick Henry, I can tell you right now
that the three of us with these combined legs, it's
not a bad payout if you throw Henry into.

Speaker 1 (38:17):
Okay, let's do this.

Speaker 2 (38:18):
I'll give you my non Derrick Henry selection and then
maybe we just add Derrick Henry.

Speaker 4 (38:25):
Yeah, why not?

Speaker 1 (38:26):
Screw it? Listen, man, it could not be more square.

Speaker 2 (38:33):
But again, I think a good bet is if it
doesn't hit you shrug your shoulders and say, I'm not
even mad.

Speaker 1 (38:40):
You know, I'm not even mad. I thought that was
a really really good bet.

Speaker 2 (38:43):
It's Ohio state wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Speaker 1 (38:48):
It's almost even money.

Speaker 2 (38:49):
It's minus one fifteen, you know, and he scored four
touchdowns already in two playoff games Texas.

Speaker 1 (38:57):
Could he score against Texas? Absolutely?

Speaker 2 (39:00):
Ohio State's gonna score a fair amount of points in
this game, and so I would go with him and listen,
Dereck Henry. Derrick Henry has had a sensational season. He's
gonna earn half a million dollars if he scores a
touchdown today. They're giving him the rock, okay, like they're

(39:22):
rewarding him for being such a beast this season. There's
almost no way he doesn't get repeated chances to score,
and I think he will.

Speaker 4 (39:31):
Wow.

Speaker 5 (39:31):
I like Joe Pennix over one and a half passing touchdowns,
Erz to score, Henry to score, Jeremiah Smith to score.

Speaker 1 (39:38):
It's fifteen to one at that. MGM, that's pretty nice
right there.

Speaker 4 (39:43):
All right?

Speaker 1 (39:43):
Coming up next scenario City.

Speaker 2 (39:45):
This is my absolute favorite NFL playoff scenario.

Speaker 1 (39:51):
Oh what is going on? Welcome in here.

Speaker 2 (39:53):
We've got college football playoff action, We've got NFL Week
eighteen to get, We've got Seamus McGee this hour too,
looking forward to that. So scenarios here, we've got NFL incentives,
we'll get to that here momentarily. And NFL clinching scenarios,

(40:14):
This is my favorite one by far.

Speaker 1 (40:16):
Get this.

Speaker 2 (40:18):
The Vikings and the Lions. They play on Sunday Night football. Right,
if that game is somehow a tie, the Lions would
win the division. Thinks to beating the forty nine ers
last week. It's my favorite twist ever, right, like I listen,
we can get into it.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
I thought that it wasn't a great decision.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
With a banged up team to risk further injury and
go out there and play an entire game.

Speaker 1 (40:46):
Now you're on a short week if you're the Lions.

Speaker 2 (40:48):
But they escaped injury, and if somehow doing that benefited them.
Where in a tie in Sunday Night the Lions win
the division?

Speaker 1 (40:58):
That would be the twist of twists right there.

Speaker 2 (41:01):
I would love to hear what people had to say
if that were to play out.

Speaker 4 (41:04):
Well.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
I loved the decision for Dan Campbell to play as
guys kind of for that reason, because you know that
there would have been negativity slung his way in the
opposite direction if somehow the Vikings found a way or
this game, I shouldn't say the Vikings. Vikings are a
good team, but this game somehow ended in a tie

(41:27):
where then there would be second guessing. People would be
at the podium asking Dan, hey, were you aware that
there was this clinching scenario last week when you decided
to rest all your starters and then all of the
boo birds in Detroit, who now they've gone away for
the most part, they've migrated south, but they may come
back north the boo for the winner because they're used

(41:50):
to it. There's been a lot to boo in Detroit
over the years. But I digress. I mean, this is
a different era, this is a different it's a different
attitude coming out of Detroit, Dan Campbell. It's kind of
like this relentless punch in the face that I mean,

(42:11):
I love it. I can't I can't get enough Dan Campbell.
I can't get enough of the Detroit Lions. I think
that this is the type of team that, even kind
of banged up heading into the postseason, still is one
of the more dangerous teams in the field.

Speaker 1 (42:27):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (42:27):
I think they are who they are, and that's they
stay true to theirselves.

Speaker 1 (42:34):
They stay true to their identity.

Speaker 5 (42:36):
And I give Dan credit, like after the game, he
did kind of maya culpa or at least explain his process.
And I respect that because he did not owe that
explanation to any of us.

Speaker 1 (42:48):
He could have just said this is what we do,
but he went into detail.

Speaker 5 (42:53):
He's like, first of all, I've heard a lot of
discourse about this with from coaches. You know, all the
coaches all have their own po podcast, all do so,
like they all get asked about this stuff.

Speaker 1 (43:03):
You saw Harball get asked about this.

Speaker 5 (43:04):
Jim Harball, Chargers coach this week and he did a
podcast with Belichick or maybe it was last week.

Speaker 1 (43:09):
And he's like, what am I supposed to do?

Speaker 5 (43:10):
There's only you know, six backups or you know, six
extra roster spots. I can't bench everybody, like, I've got
to play guys. And then the next part of that,
from Dan Campbell's perspective, was we prepared like this.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Was going to be a game that we were gonna play.

Speaker 5 (43:25):
We brought our guys out here, everything, we went through
the process of playing this game to the utmost degree.
And then you have this revenge factor. It was important
to this Lions team to win this game. It was
important to them, and whether or not it matters to
the playoff seedings. It was important to the fabric of
that team to go to San Francisco Santa Clara.

Speaker 1 (43:48):
And give their best effort.

Speaker 5 (43:50):
And I think that's important because if they would have
benched people and they would have gotten blown out or
whatever bad outcome would have happen, they would have gone
into their most important game knowing they didn't.

Speaker 1 (44:03):
Leave their best stuff on the field.

Speaker 5 (44:05):
And yet you're obviously making a writ like obviously it's
a risk. Obviously you risk or getting Jared Goff, Jamier
Gibbs Moore. So is the most important piece there, I
think because they just don't have any backup running backs
now that Montgomery is hurt.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
But this is just who they are.

Speaker 5 (44:20):
Like anyone getting mad at Dan Campbell like this is
you're getting mad. That's like getting mad at the sky
for being blue. That's just who the Lions are.

Speaker 1 (44:28):
I hear all of that.

Speaker 2 (44:30):
I just think the counter to all of that is, look, man,
I look at Dan Campbell.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
He's a guy.

Speaker 2 (44:38):
If he's a Texas Holden player, he's going all in
way more than he needs to. He's going all in
when the odds are not in his favor. And it's
like if you sit it down at the poker table,
and you're just aggressive constantly you're not gonna win, that
you're not gonna win, And you could argue that Texas
hold him is not the same as the NF. Oh okay,

(45:00):
I hear you, But aggressiveness and over aggressiveness is what
I'm getting to. Would it be over aggressive if the
chiefs said, you know that Dan Campbell's onto something here.
You know, even though we have nothing to play for
in Week eighteen, we're playing Mahomes, we're playing Travis Kelsey,
we're playing a banged up Chris Jones. Like, it wouldn't
make any sense, It makes no sense. And yet Dan

(45:23):
Campbell went out there, and I get that's just who
they are.

Speaker 1 (45:26):
But if you're going all in.

Speaker 2 (45:28):
With like Jack three offsuit, like eventually you're gonna lose
those hands just because you're aggressive, and this is who
I am. I'm aggressive guy. It's like that can come
back and bite you. And I just didn't think the
risk was worth the reward. But hey, they escaped major injury.
That's step one here. But short week, banged up team,

(45:52):
you just played a sixty minute game and you're hosting
Sam Darnold and the Vikings, and that that's a on
a short that is tough. That is a lot to ask.
How about this another scenario here the Rams. This is
an interesting one. So Sean McVay is doing the opposite
of Dan Campbell. He saw the crazy Dan cambelly. It's like,
I want to do the exact opposite of that. He's

(46:15):
resting all of his guys, is main guys against the Seahawks.

Speaker 1 (46:19):
If the Rams lose.

Speaker 2 (46:21):
Which there is a great chance they will, and Tampa
wins their game, which is likely to happen, then the
Rams are a four seed and they'll either host the
Lions or the Vikings, whoever loses the Sunday night game.
That's who the Rams would host if they're the four seed.

(46:42):
And you could make the argument, hey, go out there,
play your guys, win the game. You're the three seed.
That's way better than hosting either the Lions or the
Vikings in the first week of the playoffs. What do
you think about that decision from Sean McVay, He's like,
we're favoring rest over whoever we face and whatever seed
we end up getting.

Speaker 3 (47:00):
Well, you know, it's interesting. So to your point, I
think Dan Campbell is coaching to his personality. I think
Sean McVay is coaching to his personality, and I think
that you need to coach to your personality. You can't
fake it, because if there's one thing as a former player,
I remember feeling like the most cringe factor when you

(47:25):
hear a coach speak is when you know he's faking
something like when.

Speaker 1 (47:28):
You're not family.

Speaker 4 (47:30):
Oh like that type of stuff.

Speaker 3 (47:32):
I'm not kidding, Like when you're when you're in the
locker room, all you want is authenticity because you are
laying it out on the line on a daily basis,
certainly a weekly basis in the games you know you are.

Speaker 4 (47:45):
You're putting a lot.

Speaker 3 (47:46):
On the line for these for these figureheads, for these coaches,
and the more authentic coaches and the more strategic. It
feels when you're kind of in the lions den and
you're in your lane and you're laying out your best
made plans and you know that trust is built by

(48:07):
being who you are, and Dan Campbell there's no fake
in it, Like that's who he is, and that locker
rooms has rallied around him and his aggressiveness and this
you know, hey, we back down to No One attitude,
and it worked out for him in that game against
the forty nine ers.

Speaker 4 (48:22):
Nobody got hurt.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
Now, everybody gets hurt in every game, but nobody got
injured to the point where they're not going to be
available in a very important Week eight team matchup with
the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (48:31):
But for the Rams, like Sean mcvay's not that guy.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
Sean mcvay's more Belicheckian, more Machiavellian in his approach. And
I think the players, especially an elder statesman like Stafford,
who needs to be guarded a little bit and protected
and he needs to sort of play behind the Walt
Garden a little bit. I think he respects that, and
I think that proliferates his locker room. So this decision

(48:57):
very similar in my brain to the Dan Campbell decision.
You got to you have to coach to your personality,
and he one hundred percent is he's playing chessnut checkers here.

Speaker 1 (49:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (49:08):
And there's a proverb and this isn't really it's not
fully apples to apples, but I'm gonna say it anyway.
There's a proverb that says, if you get bitten by
a snake, are you gonna go run after the snake
to like ask why it bit you? Or are you
just gonna accept snake's bite humans? And that's just what happens.
It's kind of a proverb about like forgiving yourself for
past wounds, but it applies to this because this is

(49:31):
just who these guys are, Like, this is just who
Dan Campbell and Sean McVay are. Sean McVay is the
you know, the intellectual, analytical decision maker that's trying to
find the best plus ev expected outcome for his team
to put them in the best situation possible to win.

Speaker 1 (49:48):
And Dan Campbell's like, screw it, we're going like here
we go.

Speaker 5 (49:51):
Like there's just come two completely different personalities.

Speaker 1 (49:55):
One is not right or wrong.

Speaker 5 (49:57):
They both have had success coaching in the end, Shawn's
won a Super Bowl, obviously, he's had a fantastic career.
Dan is still kind of ascending up to that perch
and they've got a chance to win a Super Bowl
this year. So if you can't say one's right, one's wrong,
it's just the personality of their respective teams and you
have to respect the decision of these two men staying

(50:19):
true to their personalities and not allowing the outside pressure
of the moment impact their decisions. And I think the
locker room, and I've never been in a NFL locker
room like Rich has, but I think each locker room
probably respects each coach. And I'm sure there were guys.
I'm sure there were guys on both sides of the argument.
I'm sure there were guys in the Lions locker room

(50:40):
they're like, man, why the hell are we playing this?
And I'm sure there's guys in the Rams locker room
they're like, man, I want to go out there and play.

Speaker 1 (50:45):
Another example that is the Eagles.

Speaker 5 (50:47):
I bet there's guys in that Eagles locker room offensive
lineman Saquon Barkley that are like, I want this stupid
rushing record.

Speaker 1 (50:53):
Screw the resting screw that I want this record.

Speaker 5 (50:56):
But they understand there's a bigger, you know, bigger factor
in play here, and they respect the personality of whatever
franchise decision maker that they're listening to. In this case,
it would be Sirianni and the GMS and everyone on
the higher ups.

Speaker 1 (51:10):
But the Rams Lions.

Speaker 5 (51:12):
Like two polar opposite personalities, but both coaches. You gotta
respect them for staying true to theirselves.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
Well, I just think that it'll be interesting to hear
the takeaways with whatever happens with the Lions, and I
think that there's gonna be a lot more made than
there probably should be. That's my gut feeling. Or play
this thing out. If the Lions lose on Sunday night,
you're gonna hear a lot of See, I told you

(51:39):
they shouldn't have played their guys against the Niners last week.
That's why they lost. And it's like, well, not necessarily.
The Vikings are a really good team. Even if they
rested everybody, the Lions still might have lost.

Speaker 1 (51:50):
And the other can be true too.

Speaker 2 (51:52):
If the Lions win, you're gonna hear a lot of
That's why you play your guys the momentum. You know,
Dan Campbell, he's a mad genius over here. That's why
they wont like Look, guys, they're a good team. The
Lions are really tough to beat at home, even as banged.

Speaker 1 (52:08):
Up as they are. So I'm just prepared for see.

Speaker 4 (52:12):
That's why.

Speaker 5 (52:15):
Determined outcome right there, I think we're gonna get a
lot of redetermined outcome.

Speaker 3 (52:18):
Yeah, I agree with what you said. I think that reaction.
You can count on reaction. There's gonna be reaction one
way or the other. But but to what you said
to Jared, like the predetermined outcome thing, Like I don't
buy it ever, because everything feels random to me when
it comes to the NFL again, there's so many variables.

(52:41):
Like that's the reason why you can see major upsets
like Michigan walking away. We were talking about this earlier,
Michigan walking away with a win against Ohio State in
that matchup, like Ryan Day is on top of the world,
you know, the day before the game. The day after
the game, a guy who's about to you know, compete
for potential national championship is being discussed as should he

(53:05):
lose his job? Like, I mean, like that's how steep
the reaction can be to these highly variable moments. So yeah,
I mean, I look at Dan Campbell and probably honestly
he would never say this out loud, and certainly not
in front of his team, but he probably still feels like, hey,

(53:28):
we have a culture in Detroit of losing football. We
are still trying to shake, Like we need this fan
base to believe in us. I need to consistently remind
this team this franchise, the owners, the people who work
on the support staff, that we're now winners. And if
we rest on our laurels at all and then go

(53:51):
out and play a bad game against the Vikings, everybody's
going to respond with huh. Dan Campbell got himself to
a certain platitude and he rested his guys and he
thought who he was, and look what happens now? That
is not what he's built up there. He's got this.
He's got to teach this culture what it feels like

(54:12):
to be a winner. And then and then I think
he could start becoming more strategic and you may see
some of that in the future if they have continued success.
I agree with the decision because I don't think this
is a year to do it. They're still building that foundation.

Speaker 5 (54:27):
Totally agree, And I think the biggest risk was the injuries.

Speaker 1 (54:33):
Nobody got hurt.

Speaker 5 (54:34):
You want to make the case that they've got one
less day to prepare, that the schedule was like that
before the season started, like they knew going into the season.
For example, Rich when you guys had games on Monday
night and then you had the short week. A lot
of times you do the install before you'd maybe take
a day before because you have an extra day the
prior week. Hey, we got the Vikings next week, let's

(54:56):
do a little Vikings prep. So that part of it
I think was probably ironed out. The injury bug was
the only thing that could have bit them in this spot,
and it didn't bite them. Anything that takes place on
Sunday has nothing to do with what happened Monday in
Santa Clair. I don't want to hear the fatigue or
the fatigue. It's it's the biggest game of there. You
think the Vikings are fatigued. How many games have they

(55:18):
played this year? You're telling me that one extra day
is going to make that big of a difference in
the level of fatigue that the lie like the Vikings
have had a really long, tumultuous season.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
Aaron Jones' banged up, he got cleared. Both teams are.

Speaker 5 (55:30):
On the the You know, the candle has been burning
on both ends for both of these teams for seventeen weeks.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
Now you get one game to show your stuff.

Speaker 4 (55:39):
I am.

Speaker 5 (55:39):
I'm very happy that nobody got hurt. Now that we've
moved past the oh what if? Jamiir Gibbs, Tears's Achilles
or something crazy that didn't happen.

Speaker 1 (55:48):
Now we can focus on the game.

Speaker 5 (55:50):
Nothing that takes place on the field Sunday night, I
think has anything to do with.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
What transpired in Santa Clair on Monday.

Speaker 5 (55:56):
These are very separate outcomes now because thankfully we avoided
an injury.

Speaker 1 (56:01):
No bye week since week five for the Lions, what
was the Vikings by week I honestly don't know.

Speaker 2 (56:08):
I could get it for you real fast, but I will.
You played a lot of football.

Speaker 1 (56:11):
For a lot of weeks.

Speaker 5 (56:13):
While you're looking well, you're biking Kings.

Speaker 1 (56:16):
Yeah, so it's.

Speaker 2 (56:17):
Not like there, you know, are the Vikings as banged.

Speaker 1 (56:21):
Up as the Lions? Not even close? No, well, the
defense is much worse of it.

Speaker 3 (56:24):
If I were Dan Campbell, I get in front of
that group and I would say, you guys want to rest.
You want to rest. We earn our rest. You go
out there and you beat the Niners, you beat the Vikings,
We'll get our rest. That's how we are. We earn
our rest around here. And then they go out Yeah,
I mean play like your hair's on fire. Like that's
that's to me. Lions football. If they rested, I'd be like,

(56:45):
what is Dan Campbell doing that. That's that's that it
wouldn't match the personality, and he's coaching to his person.

Speaker 7 (56:52):
And real quick just to just to rich his point
as someone who's covered the Lions now for for nine years.
There is a term in Lions culture of sol, which
means a lot of things, but in this context means
same old Lions.

Speaker 4 (57:04):
And it's to.

Speaker 7 (57:05):
That idea that no matter what, the Lions are going
to somehow disappointment you and let you down. And you
did see last year was kind of like the oh,
this is this is not Sol anymore. This is brand
new Lions. This is something different. But I think that
that's always got to be nagging in the back of
Dan Campbell's mind, and he's spoken to that same point

(57:27):
that you've talked about Ritch about trying to instill a
new culture that where those three letters never come up again,
because that's that's the goal, is learning how to win
and just wins consistently.

Speaker 2 (57:37):
By the way I say, real fast, little peak behind
the curtain, Chris, he'll be the guy in our year.

Speaker 1 (57:43):
Gotta go, gotta.

Speaker 2 (57:44):
Go until it's his Lions and then it's a little
equoy city and who cares about the clock.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
I love that. I love it only when we were whatever.

Speaker 4 (57:58):
Right.

Speaker 2 (57:59):
We've got Rich Honberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 1 (58:04):
I'm Brian No.

Speaker 2 (58:05):
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(58:25):
visit betmgm dot com. Use code countdown to receive up
to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if that
bet loses all right, our main man Seamus McGee from betmgm.
He joins us coming up. Getting you set for Week
eighteen and beyond. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
Kickoff presented by betmgm. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown

(58:47):
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Speaker 1 (59:05):
Har let's do this follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 4 (59:09):
Ah.

Speaker 2 (59:09):
Yes, we welcome in our good friend, Seamus McGee, team lead.

Speaker 1 (59:13):
Of Sports Trading at bet MGM.

Speaker 2 (59:16):
Good morning, Seamus. So the first NFL game of the day.
We've got the Browns at the Ravens. Browns are twenty
point underdogs, which to me feels disrespectful and probably accurate
at the same time. What do you think about a
twenty point NFL spread here?

Speaker 9 (59:37):
Yeah, it's getting be back. Yeah. I had to do
a double take when I saw this get to twenty.
I thought Adam Gaser was on the sideline for Browns.
So yeah, I mean, as far as the spread goes,
there is there is some interest on the Browns at twenty. Yeah,
this is a huge spread. I'm thinking if I if
I wanted to back the Browns, you gotta think ravenst

(01:00:00):
up huge early. They pull all the starters. Browns somehow,
you know, get in the back door there. But there's
definitely you know, two sided action on this game.

Speaker 5 (01:00:10):
You know, it's funny. I was looking up some numbers
in Week eighteen, Seamus. It's just it's such a weird
week in the NFL. So last year only five of
the sixteen games were within a touchdown of each other,
and no season in the last seven years has had
more than half of the games within a touchdown. So like,
these games just fly off the rails in both directions.

(01:00:31):
Of course, the volatility with the rosters, it probably makes
it really tough to book.

Speaker 9 (01:00:37):
It really is like you usually get up a touchdown
score props up, you know, way earlier in the week.
But this year, I mean, we still have a couple
games we don't have props for yet because we don't
know who's playing for some teams like the Rams Seahawks
is a game like that. But yeah, it's so weird.
And then we get into a spot where it's like
everyone knows who needs to win this week, so they

(01:01:01):
bet that team and they're usually favored. So it's another
week where we really need the dogs to cover.

Speaker 8 (01:01:06):
And you know, as a guarantee, what seam is, what
part of this Browns Baltimore matchup are you most interested in?

Speaker 3 (01:01:16):
This coun be both from a betting angle or just
from a fan standpoint. I mean so many different spider
legs to this. You know, you have the Lamar Jackson
MVP case. Right this is his final regular season game.
He trails Josh Allen right now plus two point fifty,
I think is where Lamar currently is. The most books

(01:01:37):
you have. Obviously the AFC North, I mean still up
for grabs between Baltimore and the Steelers. The Cincinnati Bengals
playoff future is tied to the outcome of this game.
They still have a way to weirdly sneak in. Also,
Derrick Henry's touchdown incentive during the So is there one

(01:01:58):
storyline that you're most interest just didn't whether it be
from a fans standpoint or a betting standpoint.

Speaker 9 (01:02:04):
I know what you said first was my reasons, Like
how long is Mamar gonna play? Are they going to
leave him into like add the stats a little bit,
get him that back to back MVP. That's what I'm
looking at it. And also like that's gonna be huge
for the spread, Like if he's in for three quarters,
you know, suddenly Ravens minus twenty feels like it has
a lot more life system does right now. But yeah,
it's seemed interesting to see how much you say he

(01:02:25):
stays in this game.

Speaker 2 (01:02:26):
I think, Okay, Seamus, let me throw a little bit
of college football at you. So we've got our our
semi final matchups here, all set.

Speaker 1 (01:02:35):
Which point spread, whether.

Speaker 2 (01:02:37):
It's Notre Dame against Penn State or it's at Ohio
State Texas matchup? Which point spread as it stands right
now interests you more as a better.

Speaker 9 (01:02:48):
I lean with Ohio State along with everyone else in
the world. I think they're playing a different sport right
now compared to everyone else left in the playoffs. I
bet this up to seven seven and a half real
if that from what I saw from them and what
I've seen from Texas and really what I'm seeing on
the Texas offense. Think the first drive they looked great,
and then Dolphins really sputters a lot, a lot more

(01:03:10):
than people think I And then Ohio State team, you
go down three scores, good luck, that defense is not
letting you back in the game. I think this team
is gonna win a national championship.

Speaker 5 (01:03:21):
I hated everything about you know, how Texas handled that
game after the after the punt return they just they
just said we're gonna win, and they just completely throw disgusting.

Speaker 9 (01:03:31):
Yeah, I was saying, we got to start talking about
Sarkisi and were talking about James Franklin at this ray
and then they luckily pulled it off for them.

Speaker 4 (01:03:37):
Yeah, they were.

Speaker 5 (01:03:38):
They were a fourth and thirteen away from from us
being just a complete I mean that would have been
if they don't If they didn't win that game, all
of the hatred that Ryan Day was getting would have
been transferred over over to Steve's Sarkisian is is there
like the contract incentive stuff. We've talked about this before,
and it's naive of anyone out there to think that

(01:04:00):
you guys don't know that Derek Henry needs to score
a touchdown today for five hundred thousand dollars like it's
and I think a lot of us betting these things.
Oh we've got this big inside information, like you know
that these are happening, and you price them accordingly. So
while it might still happen and you might win your bet,
you're not getting a fair you know, a fair price

(01:04:22):
because everybody knows that the incentives are a thing.

Speaker 9 (01:04:27):
This is getting into March madness. Territory when one guy
will go on, I found this super secret ten palm
formula that none of the books know about, and this
is how you're gonna win your bracket pool. It's Mike
Evans is receiving prop is what ninety three and a half,
ninety four and a half.

Speaker 8 (01:04:45):
It's been one hundreds, like one hundred now, it's has
been like about fifteen yards all year.

Speaker 9 (01:04:53):
This stuff gets baked in to the point and we
know people are gonna bet it. Like on our site,
we have specials for players to get incentives right now.
You can go on there. If you go to our
special side, you can find if you really want to
vet it. So we were well aware of them, but yeah,
it's there. You can tell they're baked in. I think
the only one that looks like maybe there's a chance

(01:05:13):
if you really think the incentive has some work is
a Courtland Sutton's prop. It's definitely getting over, but he
needs like eighty five yards to meet his And it's
like still like the sixties seventies, because I wonder if
they go big on the Chiefs today start taking side out,
are they just going to take the ritable and just
run the ball the rest of the game. So that's
an interesting one.

Speaker 3 (01:05:33):
I think seame this week eighteen feels like walking into
the funhouse at an amusement park. Like you look around
some of these spreads, like the Eagles are narrow favorites
over the Giants, the Bills are narrow favorites over the Patriots.
I mean, it's so weird, is there. I mean there's
a lot to plunder. It feels like if you feel

(01:05:54):
there's edges out there to exploit, is there a game
or games in the NFL this week and that have
caught your eye because the spreads just don't seem to
match up to expectation.

Speaker 9 (01:06:07):
It's a weird seeing that the Jets are like a
pick em this week against the Dolphins in a must
win game for Miami. Right, but you do take into
a fact that Huntley is starting, it could be Rogers's
last game, and you know, the record without two is
just abysmal. So that caught my eye for a little bit.
But like you hook at the Vronton's been favored over

(01:06:28):
a Chiefs team ten and a half. I know, no
one's sitting for everyone's sitting for the Chiefs, so that
this is just You're a funhouse is a great way
to describe this week. Titans favored by a point and
a half over the Texans. I know the Titans are
playing a Texans team that's sitting everyone as well, but
this is a Titans team that should probably lose this game.

(01:06:51):
There's so many angles you could take for any game
you really.

Speaker 2 (01:06:55):
Want, all right, Seamus, it's the moment of truth over here,
the shamous best shoal.

Speaker 1 (01:07:00):
Where are you taking us here?

Speaker 4 (01:07:02):
Yeah?

Speaker 9 (01:07:02):
Well, I'm gonna go to the hardwood here in about
half hour. I'm gonna take Florida outright at Kentucky. Florida
undefeated going in. It might be square, but I really
love this Florida team. I have a ticket on them
myself to win the national championship this year.

Speaker 1 (01:07:18):
I think I just want to go Bahamas Bowl.

Speaker 4 (01:07:19):
Yeah, Gators, here we go exactly.

Speaker 9 (01:07:22):
That line is so weird, the Bahamas Ball. We've gone
through zero and now there's some buy back coming in
on Liberty.

Speaker 5 (01:07:30):
I just I have no clue, you know what about
Buffalo and Liberty at eight o'clock in the morning Pacific
in the Bahamas Bull.

Speaker 4 (01:07:39):
I love it, all.

Speaker 1 (01:07:40):
Right, Samus, Great stuff man, we'll catch you soon. Hope
you have a great weekend.

Speaker 9 (01:07:45):
Thanks guys, have a go one.

Speaker 1 (01:07:46):
You're the man.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
Jamins too very is Seamous McGee, team lead of sports
trading at bet MGM.

Speaker 4 (01:07:51):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (01:07:52):
We're only twenty four minutes away from kickoff and we've
got another hour of the show left.

Speaker 4 (01:07:57):
I love it.

Speaker 5 (01:07:57):
I already put in a Buffalo money line. Derek Henry
touchdown parlay for for Derek Henry. Parlay is tied to
like everything.

Speaker 4 (01:08:05):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:08:06):
He said something pretty interesting right there, and I'm sure
you caught it, Jared, being as heavy as you are
on this, Derrick Henry anytime rushing touchdown.

Speaker 1 (01:08:14):
Prop right starters? Yeah, yeah, but.

Speaker 2 (01:08:18):
Yeah, like the Ravens get up big, Like let's say,
Lamar scores, they Flowers gets in the end zone, there's
a touchdown past to Mark Andrews.

Speaker 1 (01:08:26):
We're leading big, can get anybody hurt?

Speaker 4 (01:08:29):
Yeah? Yeah, they're leading, they're leading. I could see it now.

Speaker 3 (01:08:34):
They're they're leading twenty seven to three going into the
fourth quarter, and we're and the text line is exploding
between me Jared.

Speaker 5 (01:08:45):
Well, you can bet there's a couple of ways to
mitigate that. I don't even know if they offer this
at certain shops. I've seen it before. You can bet
which player to score the first touchdown, obviously in the game, right,
but you can also bet the player to score the
first touchdown for that specific team. You can also bet
a first half touchdown, which I think might be the
better way to kind of split the baby there.

Speaker 4 (01:09:06):
I like that.

Speaker 2 (01:09:06):
That's a good idea right there. It does give me,
you know, shivers. When I accidentally I thought I was
betting I take you to the World Cup. Okay, yeah,
I thought I was betting Argentina to score the first
goal against Poland.

Speaker 1 (01:09:24):
And what turned out to.

Speaker 2 (01:09:26):
Be was Argentina had to score the first goal in
the first half, and so Messy Messi, who was unbelievable
in the World Cup, he had a penalty kick in
the first half, and my girls like you're ready to win.

Speaker 1 (01:09:44):
I'm like, I'm let's go. Messi airmails it like over
the net, don't win.

Speaker 5 (01:09:51):
Lose to watch the rest of the match outside after that,
and of course Argentina scores first.

Speaker 1 (01:09:55):
But in the second half, I thought, that's check before
you click submit.

Speaker 2 (01:10:02):
May there's a lot of fine print in soccer betting.
There's stuff I don't even get I'm like, I'm not
doing it.

Speaker 1 (01:10:08):
I have no idea.

Speaker 2 (01:10:10):
Okay, real fast, We've got the Browns and the Ravens today,
we're just talking about this twenty point spread. Two things
I find interesting. One, we've got Bailey Zappi in for
the Browns. It's like, wait, what he's even on the Browns? Like, yeah,
he's on the Browns. So there are two ways to
think about this. You could say, well, how how well

(01:10:33):
is he gonna play? This is the first start, Like
doesn't even know these guys, right, but he's at least.

Speaker 1 (01:10:40):
Capable of starting, I think right now.

Speaker 2 (01:10:43):
Over dtr who is not a starting quarterback in the
NFL at this stage, just as not. So you look
at that. Maybe the Browns it helps him out a bit.
There's a terrible Ravens pass defense. The team totals are,
which what's interesting to me too. The Browns are at
ten and a half. Are they over or under just
their team total? Ravens at thirty and a half. If

(01:11:04):
the Browns could somehow score like thirteen points, they might
they might be the right side in this thing.

Speaker 1 (01:11:10):
Twenty points is a ton in an NFL game.

Speaker 3 (01:11:13):
Completely agree, completely, agree because remember where John Harbaugh is
a veteran coach in a league where style points do
not matter. Now, does he have a player who could
use a touchdown?

Speaker 4 (01:11:27):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:11:28):
Yeah, But if he doesn't score a touchdown, Johnny looks
a lot better to ownership because, I mean, while they
got it in Baltimore, there's no question about it, nobody's
poor in the NFL if there, if you're owning an
NFL team, you don't mind paying out a five hundred
thousand dollars incentive because a player earned an incentive, that's fine.

(01:11:48):
Derek Henry has improved the Baltimore Ravens lot this year.

Speaker 4 (01:11:52):
However, if John Harbaugh gets.

Speaker 3 (01:11:54):
The W and doesn't end up costing the Baltimore Ravens
half a mill, I think nobody's gonna be upset at
him upstairs. Then you look at the Lamar Jackson MVP campaign.
If he only plays a half and he has video
game numbers against the Browns, that looks good for John
Harbaugh too, and for Lamar. And then you get to

(01:12:15):
rest your starters. And like you said, like Seamus said too,
you could see the Brown steak in the back door.
I think twenty points is astounding. That's probably gonna come
up later on in Rapid Fire.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
Okay, oh yeah, I think the Lamar MVP angle is
an intriguing reason to keep him in the game. I
honestly do.

Speaker 5 (01:12:32):
And I think based on what we've seen from some
of these guys, they want their like they want their
guys to win this award, and this is of all
the races, of all the awards, I think that's the
one that I don't know, Like, I don't know who's
gonna win the MVP. I honestly don't. I think he
can make a good case for both guys. Lamar Josh
Allen's gonna win the MVP. Probably. I think that's where
I would vote. But I do think there's still a

(01:12:54):
little meat left on the bone today and tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (01:12:57):
Whether you know, you can make argument it should be Lamar.
Totally understand that, but you will win it. It's gonna
be Josh Allen. Josh Allen is winning the You.

Speaker 1 (01:13:06):
Seem really sure about that.

Speaker 5 (01:13:08):
We should get into that because I want to know
why you're so sure.

Speaker 2 (01:13:11):
Well, I'll get into it in a little bit here,
but you go, you know, Jared, I am all about
clock integrity.

Speaker 4 (01:13:16):
My friend.

Speaker 1 (01:13:17):
Yeah, we've got so much. I don't care about that.

Speaker 2 (01:13:19):
We've got Rich Ornberger, Fence State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting Analyst. I'm Brian no Our thanks to Rapid Radios,
the official communication device of Fox Sports Radio. Rapid Radios
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(01:13:40):
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Speaker 1 (01:13:48):
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Speaker 2 (01:13:52):
All right, Coming up next, prop it up Man incentives
for so many players, does that factor into who we're
looking at for the prop bet market.

Speaker 1 (01:14:02):
We'll share our extensive notes with you.

Speaker 2 (01:14:05):
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Speaker 1 (01:14:15):
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Speaker 2 (01:14:16):
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Speaker 1 (01:14:34):
All right, let's do this.

Speaker 2 (01:14:37):
Prop it up player plays I guess prop Bet Opportunities.

Speaker 1 (01:14:45):
Jared, we start with you, what's something you like today?

Speaker 5 (01:14:48):
Well, you know we're going contract incentive in some capacity.
We talked about this with Seamus and a couple of
segments ago, Like it's just it's hard to find value
because the books know about this too, So you've got
to kind of reef between the lines and dig a
little deeper. So we're gonna go Geno Smith here, and
Gino is not really going for a big contract incentive
minus passing yards.

Speaker 1 (01:15:07):
He needs one hundred and eighty five to hit two million.

Speaker 5 (01:15:09):
But if you kind of take the big picture of
this game, where the Seahawks are a favorite, the Rams
arresting all their starters.

Speaker 1 (01:15:15):
And Gino is going to be pass happy.

Speaker 5 (01:15:18):
So instead of going to the yards, which again is
in like the two forty range, not a ton of
value there if he only needs one to eighty five,
let's focus on the tuddies because over one and a
half passing touchdowns is very reasonably priced because it's not
a contract incentive. And if you think Gino's going to
be throwing the ball, well, then it makes sense that
maybe one or hopefully two of them find the end zone.
Now he's only done this two times this year. The

(01:15:39):
irony is one of them was against the Rams. It
was way back in Week nine. Actually, he's done it
three times this year. One of them in Week nine
against the Rams. It was a season high three touchdown passes.
No Kenneth Walker. The running game a little bit depleted.
It feels like Geno throwing it is going to be
the story of this game against a very, you know,
not lackluster Rams unit not really trying to play for much.

Speaker 1 (01:16:01):
In this one.

Speaker 5 (01:16:01):
So Gino Smith over one and a half passing touchdowns
over at MGM.

Speaker 4 (01:16:05):
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna go with this.

Speaker 3 (01:16:08):
Michael Pennix, Junior Tuddy, Time for my.

Speaker 4 (01:16:11):
Prop it up. I do you know what, I've really
liked the way.

Speaker 3 (01:16:15):
He's played over the past couple of weeks. Weeks I'm
doubling down on this. There are other incentive props that
we're gonna get to and I think Jared and I
have some time to divulge all of those at some
point in this show, because we're all over the map
with with a crazy parlay.

Speaker 4 (01:16:32):
I love it so much.

Speaker 3 (01:16:33):
But but yeah, this Michael Pennock junior guy, I think
he's gonna be a special talent at the league level.
I think the game's gonna start slowing down for him,
especially against inferior competition like this Carolina Panthers this week.

Speaker 4 (01:16:47):
I feel like if he has more time to operate in.

Speaker 3 (01:16:49):
The pocket, we're gonna see him clicking with this offense
and get over that one and a half touchdown mark.

Speaker 4 (01:16:55):
So give me Michael Pennick Junior.

Speaker 2 (01:16:58):
Okay, I'm worried about that one, Rich, I'm gonna be honest.

Speaker 1 (01:17:03):
Come on, what's wrong with Penix against Penis this week?

Speaker 2 (01:17:06):
I don't have anything against Pennix. I'm just worried about
the matchup. Like Carolina can't stop the rush at all.
Bjhon Robinson scoring a couple of rushing touchdowns or doing
a lot of work on the ground. That worries me.
A field goal is obviously getting your way, you know,
but if you got a big lead late, why are
you throwing it at all.

Speaker 1 (01:17:27):
You know, Pix's thing that worries me is the matchup.

Speaker 4 (01:17:31):
Yeah yeah, I get. I get what you're saying.

Speaker 3 (01:17:33):
And also you're you're you're playing with playoff hopes too. Yeah,
so there there's a there's a lot of exterior factors
that make your argument.

Speaker 4 (01:17:42):
But I don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:17:43):
I just like until the Bucks go up forty on
the Saints and it's like it doesn't matter anymore about this.

Speaker 2 (01:17:47):
Let's do this, Rich I'll give you my pick and
then you just hate on it for you know Ballace.

Speaker 1 (01:17:53):
Yeah yeah, okay, So here it is.

Speaker 2 (01:17:59):
I'm going with Jared Goff his longest completion over thirty
five and a half. Because Vikings pass defense hasn't been good.
It's gonna be a shootout. I can absolutely see a
deep ball the Jamison Williams or aman Rod gets loose,
Jamiir Gibbs pops the screen. We had to get to
a thirty six yard completion. I think it's happening for

(01:18:19):
Jared Goff. You tell me why it's absolutely not gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (01:18:23):
I like that, Actually I do.

Speaker 3 (01:18:24):
Yeah, I do think that. And also I'll it's gonna
be a close game, and I agree with you. It
could be shootout territory. There could be a lot of
throwing in this game, both sides. So actually I can't
hate on this, I really can.

Speaker 1 (01:18:38):
Are you ready for the Are you ready for the Kaffer?

Speaker 5 (01:18:40):
I have one note on the Lions game today, and
it's Jared Goff torching the blitz this year at thirteen tudies,
four picks, seventy six percent of justed accuracy rate, two.

Speaker 1 (01:18:47):
Point five second time to throw right, he eats up
the blitz.

Speaker 4 (01:18:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:18:51):
How about my other prop, bet Riley Leonard. Whatever is
passing yardage is against State, Ham.

Speaker 4 (01:18:58):
Or the over complete?

Speaker 3 (01:19:04):
I draw the line here, Yeah, under, that's just for
dramatic effect.

Speaker 4 (01:19:12):
I'm not saying that all right.

Speaker 2 (01:19:13):
Coming up next, we need to remind you of a
scenario that might be completely off your radar right now.
Oh what is going on? Everybody? We have got you
covered over here. Week eighteen of the NFL College football
still to discuss.

Speaker 1 (01:19:31):
I'll tell you what.

Speaker 2 (01:19:32):
There might be something that's completely off your radar right now.
In the midst of Ohio State's dominance, Jeremiah Smith. Their
wide receiver is sensational. They just crushed Oregon by twenty points.

Speaker 1 (01:19:45):
They're on a roll. You hear all these comments.

Speaker 2 (01:19:47):
I don't think anybody beats Ohio State when they play
their best, and that's probably true, but we don't know
if they're going to play their best going forward. Here
here's something that might be off your radar completely. If
Ryan they loses to Texas, he is getting fired. That's
just the truth of the matter here. Really, Yes, they
can't be overwhelming favorites against Texas and lose And oh,

(01:20:12):
by the way, we're just suddenly reminded of well you
lost to Michigan just a couple of weeks ago.

Speaker 1 (01:20:18):
Again as well, Like.

Speaker 2 (01:20:20):
This might be completely off the radar, but I am
absolutely telling you if they lose as huge favorites after
they've been so dominant, the disappointment factor will be through
the freaking roof. I don't think he survives if he
loses to Texas. I don't at all.

Speaker 4 (01:20:38):
I'm going to.

Speaker 3 (01:20:41):
File it under not entirely impossible, but improbable that that's
the outcome. However, I will argue in all things style
points matter in college football, So the way you lose
to Texas I think is going to be a huge determination.

Speaker 4 (01:21:00):
If that outcome is met.

Speaker 3 (01:21:03):
I feel like if they lose a close games as favorites,
that's one thing.

Speaker 4 (01:21:09):
If they get their doors blown off them.

Speaker 3 (01:21:12):
If they go out there and somehow get embarrassed by
Texas and you know it isn't because of some fluky
thing like you know, you know, heaven forbid an injury
or injuries to major players on Ohio State, but they
just get flat out outplayed out, schemed out, game planned,
what have you. Then, yeah, I could see a louder

(01:21:34):
argument for that, especially after the disappointment in the regular
season against Michigan, especially given his record against that team
up north, all those things, right, I really, I really
do feel like it's improbable.

Speaker 5 (01:21:48):
Though I agree I and I think it's more about
quinn yours than anything else.

Speaker 4 (01:21:54):
I really was.

Speaker 5 (01:21:55):
That was the biggest part of that game with Texas
that was really disappointed, was how quinn Ewers played against
an Arizona State defense that just was not was not
ready to play.

Speaker 1 (01:22:06):
I mean, I would take that back. They were ready to.

Speaker 5 (01:22:08):
Play, They're just the talent gap was so big and
Texas just I mean, it was the Lollipop Guild out there,
like yours was just out there, you know, tossing little
little cherry bombs out there, and and Arizona State made
some really nice plays on it, to be fair, but
I think what will prevent a blowout in this game
is Quinn yours and just how conserved. Like if Texas

(01:22:30):
goes up big, they're not gonna keep pouring it on,
Like Texas will throttle down, play with their food, just
like they did against Arizona State, and Ohio State will
come back and make it a game. I don't see
a scenario where Texas wins big. Now, you can make
the case that it doesn't matter Texas wins big, Texas
wins small.

Speaker 1 (01:22:49):
Ryan Day gets fired.

Speaker 5 (01:22:50):
It's not an argument I've heard yet, Brian, Like, I
feel like the warden called after the Tennessee game and
kind of got Ryan Day off the hook, and then
they were playing with I know, you the house money
turn but like they they they looked like they were
playing with no fear, no like completely loose. In that
game against Oregon, there was no tightness, all of that
tightness and the you know, the the tight sphincter vibes

(01:23:13):
that we were getting with Michigan in that game, it
was like it was all gone. After they beat Tennessee
and kind of, you know, kind of exercise some demons.
So I don't know if I agree that he's gonna
get fired if they lose the game. Now, if they
do get well, if I don't see the scenario where
they get blown out, but if it does happen, that
changes the argument. But if they lose a game like
twenty four to twenty one, you really think he still
gets fired?

Speaker 2 (01:23:33):
Yes, absolutely, yes, because that's the thing is. It's funny
with Ohio State, how we're just in completely different spots
week by week. Like if we rewind after the Michigan loss,
he was on death row right after that loss, and
it was like, the only thing that's gonna save this

(01:23:55):
guy is if he wins a title. And now we
fast forward to the here and now and we're going
into a semi final game, and it's like, wait a minute,
you can see a scenario where if he loses to Texas,
he's gone. Really hell, yes, I do, absolute freaking lutely,
because they've been so dominant the last two weeks. They

(01:24:16):
just punked an undefeated number one team in Oregon by
twenty points, and that's one of those scores where I
think it was worse than that final score indicates. And
you go from that to losing against Texas, who's lucky
to be here. You know, if the targeting penalty is called,

(01:24:37):
they might not survive. They have to convert fourth and
thirteen to get to where they are, and that's the
team who takes Ohio State down.

Speaker 1 (01:24:45):
Yeah, I listen.

Speaker 2 (01:24:47):
I would favor Ohio State to win the game. But
that's why I bring this up is it's probably not
even on your radar. Ohio State could lose this game,
and if they do, I think Ryan Day is gone.

Speaker 3 (01:24:58):
I think the drum beats certainly get louder amongst members
of the fan base and potentially even decision makers around
that program. But I don't think he gets fired. I
think that that program has a little bit of what
certain football franchises in the NFL and college football programs

(01:25:20):
have when they've had it too good for too long,
Like they just they don't understand how lucky they are,
Like they really don't like And this is fans get
spoiled sometimes, and you know the old staying. You know,
pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. When all of a sudden,
you look at Ryan Day, who has done nothing but

(01:25:40):
win and win and win for you after the Urban
Meyer years, like and you say, yeah, there's gotta be
greener grass on the other side of this fence. I mean,
we gotta find a way to beat Michigan. I would assume,
I would imagine cooler heads would prevail. But we've seen
this time and time again, and history has repeated itself

(01:26:02):
where a winning coach is exiled because he's not winning
against the right teams or at the right time of
the year, and then dark days follow. I mean, Ohio
State is sitting at the top of the college football
mountain right now, I would say, with so much changing underfoot,

(01:26:23):
with you know how nil and whatever else, transfer portal
and TV rights deals and conference realignment all happening now,
you're gonna change the face of your program program now.
Unless there is some sort of personal feuding or vendetta
against Ryan Day, I'm unaware of that's happening behind the scenes.

(01:26:47):
I think they keep his job because you need some
stability in a program, especially in one that's having success.

Speaker 5 (01:26:54):
I agree with Rich I think, and I understand the
arguments because I have them all the time with my
Pennce Day friends.

Speaker 4 (01:27:01):
Oh big game James and we got to fire. Who
are you hiring to replace him?

Speaker 1 (01:27:06):
Is the key?

Speaker 5 (01:27:07):
And I think stability matters in college football because there's
no there is none elsewhere in the sport like and
so to throw a team through upeople like that for
a loss. I I hope it doesn't happen because I'm
probably betting Ohio State in the game, but I'd be
interested to see if they did lose a close game

(01:27:28):
how that would play out, because personally, and I'm wrong
all the freaking times, so I don't take what I
say as gospel. I have no inside information on who
gets fired, who gets hired. I'm I'm at the whim
and the mercy of the news cycle, just like most
of you.

Speaker 4 (01:27:40):
I'm not an insider.

Speaker 5 (01:27:41):
But that would be a shocking story for me, Like
if I like if they if the game's on Friday,
they lose, and I wake up on Saturday morning we're
doing this show and I have an alert on my
phone that says Ryan Day fired.

Speaker 1 (01:27:53):
I would be shocked. I really would be shocked.

Speaker 2 (01:27:55):
It wouldn't be an alert, it would be a screen
shot for me saying that right day.

Speaker 5 (01:28:00):
And you would have every right to take your victory
lap because this is like a long shot. Like I
think if I were to price this now again, if
the game is a blowout, all bets are off. But
let's say it's a tight game and Ohio State just
comes up short, I would still price it as a
long shot for Ryan Day to get fired. So if
you're right, then yeah, you should take your victory lap

(01:28:22):
for cashing your ticket.

Speaker 1 (01:28:23):
Yeah, I just think that.

Speaker 2 (01:28:25):
Listen, all this this idea about stability, and I would
like to pick that apart for a second. Okay, okay,
what are we talking about with stability here? I would
look at underachieving. Again, this is all based on an if. Listen,
Ohio State has the best shot to win a national championship,
and they very well might.

Speaker 1 (01:28:45):
They should win a national championship.

Speaker 2 (01:28:47):
And I think that's why this becomes intriguing is if
they don't, what's the fallout.

Speaker 1 (01:28:53):
I would look at Ryan Day again.

Speaker 2 (01:28:55):
If they don't win a championship, and especially if they
lost to Texas, it would be so disappointing. And this
like stability thing, where are we talking about a bunch
of big ten wins? I think Ohio State would look
at it and say they would look at it less
as like a stable guy in Ryan Day, and more
so a guy that's holding them back. We can't beat Michigan,

(01:29:18):
we haven't won a title. We just lost in the
semi final to Texas, who was lucky to be here.
We can't find someone else who can beat Maryland in
Northwestern Really, he's the only guy.

Speaker 1 (01:29:29):
I don't think they would.

Speaker 2 (01:29:30):
Look at this is the way we got to keep
this stabilizing force. What if they lost in the Natty
same thing game, Yeah thing I think Ryan Day, I
think even more so against Texas in the semi finals,
like you didn't get there.

Speaker 3 (01:29:49):
Yeah, yeah, I would agree with that point that there's
a higher probability yeah, being fired if he loses in
the semi final or the national championship.

Speaker 4 (01:29:59):
But I still file it all all under unlikely. And
and to.

Speaker 3 (01:30:02):
Push back a little bit on the stability and the
cultural piece of this. You know, James Franklin, for all,
he isn't what he is is an incredible recruiter. Yeah,
and both in the high school recruitment and development of players,
but also in the transfer portal, Ryan Day, Sam, you know,

(01:30:23):
for everything, James Franklin isn't as as far as a
head coach. What he is is a great builder of staffs.
He's surrounded that program with real both from the playing field,
but also from the coaching staff, real NFL talent, and
UH and and uh and and.

Speaker 4 (01:30:41):
Collegiate high level collegiate talent in his coaching staff.

Speaker 3 (01:30:45):
Ryan Day has done the same now and and I
think Penn State fans and Ohio State fans have been
poisoned with a little bit of the same uh over
abundance of of you know, it's like, hey, you know,
maybe one whiskey good, maybe ten shots whiskey not so good.
I think they've they've dipped their hand into the honeypot

(01:31:06):
so many times. It's like they don't realize how sweet
that first taste was. And when you get away from
the honeypot, when all of a sudden you bring in
a guy who's not a good recruiter, who all of
a sudden changes the culture, who isn't a good builder
of staff, who isn't a good developer of talent, that
comes into the program, dark days follow, and it's really

(01:31:29):
hard to undo that type of stuff. So I'm not saying, Brian,
I'm not saying it's it's way outside the lexicon of
potential happenings in college football over the next month or two.
I'm not saying it's impossible. I just file it under unlikely.
Because of how transitive this whole system has become. You

(01:31:52):
do need a stabilizing force.

Speaker 4 (01:31:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:31:54):
I think the timing of it too, because of the
transfer portal and everything. Like, it's really tough.

Speaker 1 (01:31:59):
To fire your coach this late in the process.

Speaker 5 (01:32:01):
Like it's like we're late, Like we're talking about almost
you know, starting the spring practice already. You know, in
twenty twenty five, most teams they end the season in December.
Most teams that fire their coach don't make a bowl game,
don't make the National Championship, don't make the Collegeable Playoff
semi finals. Where we're this late in the process, and
so you have to always spin it back, and I

(01:32:21):
always this is always what we gravitate. Trust me, if
you don't think we've had this conversation in my Penn
Day group chat about James Franklin over the last decade.
It's like the most popular thing we talk about. But
I always go back to the same point, who are
we hiring to replace him?

Speaker 2 (01:32:35):
It's always somebody, but like, all right, so I give
you carte blanche, Brian.

Speaker 5 (01:32:39):
You can pick any coach now he has to be available.
He can't be like the head coach of Like he
can't be like, you know, a current head coach.

Speaker 1 (01:32:47):
It would be a correctly, it would be a perfect twist.

Speaker 2 (01:32:50):
Is if Ohio State canned Ryan Day and hire Franklin
and hired Lou Holtz.

Speaker 4 (01:32:57):
Each other? That great?

Speaker 5 (01:32:59):
But like I don't know, like I'm trying to wrap
my head around who Ohio State could hire that could
raise the bar that's a currently available be willing to
take the job, see you know, Like it just I
feel like that pool is so small you're trying to
hit a moving target when you're on a high speed train.

Speaker 1 (01:33:17):
There's there's really like one.

Speaker 2 (01:33:18):
I mean, like like who's That's where I differ with
you guys. Is again based on an if if they
lose to Texas, if they don't win a national championship.

Speaker 1 (01:33:27):
I don't think the bar is as high as you
guys think it is.

Speaker 2 (01:33:30):
I just don't you lose to Michigan all the time,
you don't win championships, like you are huge favorites and
you still didn't get it done.

Speaker 1 (01:33:38):
How high is the bar? Exactly like what Ryan Day.

Speaker 2 (01:33:41):
Is again if and I hate to keep bringing this
up because I'm putting it in this space where I'm
like he's getting fired. It's he's getting fired if he
doesn't come through, which he should. If he doesn't come through,
he's the Mario Christoball of the Midwest.

Speaker 1 (01:33:55):
That's what he is.

Speaker 2 (01:33:56):
He's a guy who can recruit real well and can't
get it done and can't win and can't beat the
rival and.

Speaker 1 (01:34:02):
Can't can't, can't, can't.

Speaker 2 (01:34:03):
That's not good enough at the Ohio State and they're
gonna look to improve instead of looking to just be
average at best. They're a little bit better than average.
They want excellence, they don't want better than average. And
that's exactly what he'll be if he doesn't win at all, oh.

Speaker 4 (01:34:18):
Man, I mean. And look, pride comes before the fall.
I mean.

Speaker 3 (01:34:24):
And so if there are any Ohio State upper echelon
donors or decision makers who are listening to countdown this
morning right here on Fox Sports Radio, heed my warning.
If you think you're too good for Ryan Day, there
could be dark days ahead. I'm don't get me wrong,

(01:34:45):
Don't get me wrong. Ryan Day has his flaws. I'm
not I don't even know the guy. Like I've listened
to his press conferences. Obviously we cover him as analysts
watching and covering college football, but.

Speaker 4 (01:34:58):
I don't know him personally.

Speaker 3 (01:35:00):
I don't know, again, if there's any infighting, or if
there's any feuding, or if there's any you know, issues
that have you know, roiled up behind the scenes that
maybe all of us are blissfully unaware of on the outside.
We just have the information that we have to go
with on the outside looking in, and the information I
have just from the standpoint of watching a guy create

(01:35:22):
a culture, especially after you know, kind of a catastrophic
finish to the former head coach, and and keeping some
semblance of winning as he put his fingerprint on the program,
and recruiting as he put his fingerprint on the program,
and development of players and real NFL talent, and continuing,

(01:35:42):
you know, sort of the faucet of you know, double
digit win season after double digit win season. I mean,
it's been wide open since he's been there. I get it.
It may not be up to everyone's standards, but goodness, gracious,
we've seen this so many times before. You always look
over the fence and you own. We see a better
tended flower bed and think, well, that could be our

(01:36:04):
yard too. Not so fast.

Speaker 4 (01:36:07):
We've seen this mistake before.

Speaker 5 (01:36:09):
Yeah, I don't have much to add besides the fact
that I still don't know who, Like I need to
see a list of candidates, Like if I if I
look at a list of candidates and I'm like.

Speaker 2 (01:36:20):
If you saw Ryan Day as the candidate, you drug
your shoulders.

Speaker 1 (01:36:23):
Also when he took over initially, Yeah, I mean I
don't remember what I was thinking when he took over.
To be fair, I don't remember that.

Speaker 2 (01:36:31):
You are never like, oh, he's taking a lookout man,
Ryan Day is gonna do special things.

Speaker 5 (01:36:35):
Also, hate I'm always biased everything they do with you, Brian,
I promise you.

Speaker 3 (01:36:40):
Like there are so many examples of this through that,
throughout the history of the NFL or college football. And
the reason why I said NFL first because the first
name that came to my mind was Sean McVay, who
was like basically a child taking over a professional franchise.
Wo was he, you know, just outside his twenties, And
I was like, how is this gonna work?

Speaker 4 (01:37:00):
How is he gonna lead men at that level?

Speaker 3 (01:37:02):
Guys who on the field have more playing experience than
he has coaching experience, and he found a way. So
I'm not saying it's impossible for him to be replaced
and for Ohio State to continue on a good path.
But I'm saying it's unlikely he gets fired, and it's
unlikely that they replace him with somebody better.

Speaker 1 (01:37:20):
Everybody can be replaced. Everybody can be replaced. Yeah, we
got to move.

Speaker 2 (01:37:24):
But I'll say this real fast is it's not that
Ohio State is too good for Ryan Day. It's that again,
if he doesn't win at all, you're striving for better. Okay,
like the Chiefs they had Alex Smith, he let the
league in passer rating. They wanted to be better than that,
and they struck gold with Mahomes. I know that doesn't

(01:37:45):
happen all the time, but they could have been content
with something like this guy's good, you're winning, he's doing well.
Why try to improve. It'd be like having Kyler Murray.

Speaker 1 (01:37:55):
As your quarterback. He's better than average.

Speaker 2 (01:37:57):
Where are they going. It's not that they're too good
for him, it's that they want to do better. Or
or Derek Carr, who's he's better than average. But where
are you going? Like you want to be better than
just we're above average. And that's the thing. If Ryan
Day doesn't win it all, I have no Ohio State
should be striving for better.

Speaker 1 (01:38:18):
Then hey, we're pretty good. Like we're in a lot
of games.

Speaker 2 (01:38:20):
You're not winning the games that matter, right, Like, I
I mean, State's average forever.

Speaker 1 (01:38:26):
Actually, I'd be perfectly fine with that.

Speaker 2 (01:38:31):
We got Rich Herenberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst, I'm pribbly in no, hey. Throughout the
entire football season, bet MGM will offer all different types
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Speaker 1 (01:38:48):
All right, coming up next, man, we we chopped that
up pretty good.

Speaker 4 (01:38:53):
Yeah, that's good.

Speaker 1 (01:38:53):
There aren't as many blueberries left for the the other
college football matchup you know we'll make.

Speaker 2 (01:39:00):
And also it is the game of the week. It
might be the game of the year as well. We'll
get to that as well. I should say this season,
right because of the year, this would be the first
week of that's good, good, big.

Speaker 1 (01:39:14):
Of that smart there we go. We gotta edit that
on the fly.

Speaker 4 (01:39:19):
Right there.

Speaker 2 (01:39:19):
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(01:39:41):
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in bonus bets if that bet loses. All right, so
we got to hurry it up here because we got

(01:40:02):
to get to a Viking's Lions here. But there's this
uh piddly Notre Dame Penn State game to get to.

Speaker 5 (01:40:08):
Huh, yeah, you're the first time you've used that word.

Speaker 2 (01:40:13):
I think I'm just you know, I don't know, I
can't even explain myself. But you'll be there in attendance.
Hunch Air and you're going.

Speaker 5 (01:40:20):
I listen, when the universe again opens a portal, you
have to just walk through it.

Speaker 1 (01:40:24):
You have no choice. I am walking through the portal.
Hey man, nothing wrong with that.

Speaker 4 (01:40:29):
I will what it is, transfer.

Speaker 5 (01:40:34):
Transfer portal which radio station wants to pick me up?

Speaker 2 (01:40:38):
I will throw out into the UH into the UH
atmosphere over here. You know UH that there's nothing worse.
There is nothing worse than jumping through all these hoops
to go see your team and they don't get it done.

Speaker 4 (01:40:56):
You know what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (01:41:00):
Before a week before a game, it's a risk I'll
never forget.

Speaker 2 (01:41:03):
It was the twenty twelve National Championship game Notre Dame
against Alabama. Oh, and the girl I was dating at
the time, she was before the game came on. She's like,
we should be there. It was in Miami also coincidentally, wow,
And I'm like, man, we should absolutely be there. And
I blinked and Notre Dame was down twenty one nothing
and kidding dominated I'm like, well, good thing we're not there,

(01:41:29):
you know, because that's that's all sorts of bad. Now
as far as the game goes, I'm curious what you
guys think, But I think a lot of this comes
down to which team can make its opponent pass more
than they want to, because neither passing game is much
to write home about.

Speaker 1 (01:41:48):
I would give the.

Speaker 2 (01:41:49):
Edge to Penn State because they have the Unicorn the
freak show over there and Tyler Warren stud tight end.
Notre Dame doesn't have that in the passing game, and
that's you know me, guys, I've been consistent all year.
I don't like their passing game. It hasn't been them yet.
I hope it won't, but it absolutely could.

Speaker 3 (01:42:09):
Yeah, I think that's actually probably the right way to
look at this game. Whoever can force the opponent to
play left handed. Essentially, there are a lot of ways
Ohio State can beat you, right Penn State and Notre Dame,
it's kind of they've got their way they beat teams.
And for Penn State it's a strong run game, playing

(01:42:31):
great defense and relying on what coldon Nicky has drawn
up in the dirt, it seems at times, for their
stud tight end and for Notre Dame it is that
fierce reliance on dominating time of possession, using a quarterback

(01:42:52):
who when he came into the program. I don't think
it was too much acclaim, but who has really played
And I'm using this as a compliment, although it's constantly
used as I think it's abused as like an insult.
He's a good game manager in Riley Leonard. I think
he is, and I think he does what he's asked
to do. But if you can force either of these

(01:43:13):
teams out of what they like to do, that I
think they're dead in the water. I think both of
these teams it's the same exit. So I agree one
hundred percent with you, Brian. The team that blinks first,
that's the team that loses here in terms of getting
off script, getting away from what they want to do.

Speaker 5 (01:43:31):
Yeah, after the Notre Dame game, I put myself in
a bubble and I tried to, you know, think about
this game without any bias, and I created four keys
to the game that I think are absolutely vital. The
first one is Brian's point, and we talked about it
briefly about make Riley Leonard a passer. He only attempted
twenty four passes for ninety yards against Georgia, way more
dangerous with his legs. You have to keep him in

(01:43:52):
the pocket. I think Penn State's going to try to
play as much zone as they can. When you play zone,
eyes on quarterback, when you play man, your eyes are
running with whatever.

Speaker 1 (01:44:00):
Defender or whatever offensive player you're running with. So we
saw Georgia play zone. It didn't really work that well.

Speaker 5 (01:44:05):
Riley Leonard was still a passer, but Notre Dame is
still one hundred and twelveth an explosive pass right this season.
They don't have the firepower on the outside. You have
to figure out a way, as Rich put it so eloquently,
to make Notre Dame play left handed. On the other side,
Penn State's actually pretty balanced, top fifty in their explosive
play rates on both passing and running. So what does
Notre Dame decide to take away. I do like Notre

(01:44:26):
Dame's defense. I don't like the fact that Howard Cross
got nicked up in the game. We know Riley Mills
has already hurt. Their defensive line is thin. Nicholas Singleton
and k Tron Allen both averaged over seven yards per
carry against Boise. If they can get that running game
going and allow Drew Aller to go play action, it
makes the nitty lines much more explosive. The two intangibles
that I think are keys.

Speaker 1 (01:44:47):
Penalties.

Speaker 5 (01:44:48):
Pennsate had ten penalties against Boise State tonamental mistakes. Notre
Dame ten penalties against Georgia. They lost six expected points
due to penalties in that game. If they don't commit
the penalties, they probably win by a much wider margins.
So whichever team hurts themselves less, obviously is gonna be key,
which brings me to the last point, the turnover battle.
Notre Dame is actually one of the best turnover margin

(01:45:08):
teams in the country. They won the turnover battle against Georgia.

Speaker 1 (01:45:12):
Two to oh. That's probably why they won the game.

Speaker 5 (01:45:14):
I think the kick return for a touchdown obviously, the
big explosive kind of tilted things as well. But Marcus
Freeman out coach Kirby Smart. I did not have that
on my Bengo card in the Sugar Bowl. Marcus Freeman
out coaching Kirby Smart. So I think those intangibles are
obviously going to play a key factor. Turnovers, penalties, and
can you make Riley Leonard a thrower and not a runner?

Speaker 4 (01:45:34):
You know what?

Speaker 2 (01:45:34):
I took all that and I added it up and
it came out to Notre Dame twenty Penn State seventeen.

Speaker 1 (01:45:42):
Yeah that sounds all. Yeah, well they are two and
a half point favorite or one and a half. It's
like two right, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I hear you.

Speaker 4 (01:45:50):
Though.

Speaker 2 (01:45:50):
It's a lot of this is it's like the Super
the Spider Man meme where he's pointing at himself.

Speaker 1 (01:45:57):
These are two.

Speaker 2 (01:45:58):
Very very similar teams stylistically, roster wise.

Speaker 1 (01:46:03):
It's just like the defense that does a.

Speaker 2 (01:46:07):
Better job slowing down the opposing team's running game. That's
a huge, huge deal. If your Penn State and Ridley
Leonard beats you with his arm, you're like, hey, tip
part cap to you.

Speaker 4 (01:46:20):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (01:46:21):
I think it's the same thing with Drew Aller. I
think Drew Aller has been a better passer this season,
but he's not, you know.

Speaker 1 (01:46:28):
Prolific by any stretch.

Speaker 2 (01:46:29):
So if you're able to slow down Nicholas Singleton and
k Tron Allen, if you're Notre Dame's defense and Aler
just has a day throwing it, you're like, hey, we
took something away, and we took your strength away and
Aler was still good enough. I think that's what it's
going to come down to. We gotta shift it, though,
to this game the Vikings at the Lions certainly the

(01:46:51):
game of the season thus far. And you're talking to
fourteen and two teams that are meeting for the division
and the one seed in the NFC, which is NBC
is just like chef's kiss. This is beautiful Sunday night football.

Speaker 4 (01:47:09):
You kidding me?

Speaker 2 (01:47:11):
Look, man, this Lions team is so banged up, but
it is. I just feel like so many people are
on the Viking side where I'm like going into Detroit
and taking the division and taking the one seed from them,
even as banged up as they are. You cannot undersell that.

(01:47:34):
And every time I listen to someone, they're like, Vikings, Oh,
give me Vikings plus three all day.

Speaker 1 (01:47:38):
I'm like, I don't know. Something tells me it's not
gonna be that easy.

Speaker 3 (01:47:41):
Yeah, yeah, Well listen, last time they met. Yeah, David
Montgomery he's on the ir now. So that's different for
the Lions. Last time they met the Lions, probably I
would argue you had a handful more players on their
roster fully healthy than they do now. This is completely
different looking roster this time around, which I again, we

(01:48:05):
always look at that as a detraction for the team
that's missing pieces. Sometimes it can play a role as
a benefit because when you don't have a lot of
tape on certain players, you don't have an idea of
if they've unlocked their full potential or talent. And that
certainly can be the case for some of the players

(01:48:26):
on the Lions rosters. The second time around for the Vikings,
Here's what I'll say. This to me is one of
the hardest games to predict because there's so much emotion
tied to it. These are such evenly matched teams when
you look at their offensive schemes versus their defensive schemes.

(01:48:46):
Just that alone, the bullyball that the Detroit Lions want
to impose versus the blitz heavy Vikings defense that Brian
Floores mans, it's gonna be that matchup. I think that
determines that b Flow on the Vikings side against Ben
Johnson b Joe on the Detroit Lions side. I think

(01:49:07):
it's I think it's going to be an outstanding game.
And and that does you know, as a prelude to this,
we were talking about it earlier, it does have shootout
vibes written all over it because Golf handles the blitz well.
The Lions have a good blitz plan offensively, and you
know the Vikings aren't going to back off the blitz.

(01:49:29):
And Sam Darnold's been dealing. He had that trough in
the middle of the season, but he's finished this season strong.
He's been dealing. So the Vikings aren't afraid and ken
score points, especially against a injury savage Detroit defense. So
I could see this being a game where the overhits
by by miles potentially.

Speaker 5 (01:49:48):
Yeah, and that's the only thing the market knows about
this game. The market thinks agrees with Rich like over City.
I mean, this total open fifty one and a half.
We're up to fifty six. Now, that's a really high
total in the NFL. In the first game had sixty
points in it. So again, it's not like this thing
can't fly over with both teams getting into the thirties.
I think, Bino, you and I were in the We're

(01:50:10):
at the Angle when we were watching that thirty four
to thirty one Lions Packers a shoot back and forth.
I mean that that feels like the kind of score
we're going to see in this game. The number for
the spread's been just magnetized, just locked into three pretty
much the whole week. I think if you see a
two and a half, you bet Detroit. If you see

(01:50:31):
a three and a half, which you won't, but if
you do, you bet Minnesota. Like it, just any any movement,
any inch off of that key number of three, you're
going to see professional money come in on either side
of this game.

Speaker 1 (01:50:44):
You just kind of let the market decide.

Speaker 5 (01:50:46):
And usually what I've noticed in these standalone, high profile,
high leverage game super Bowls, playoff, you know, AFC Championship
tight types of games, the public usually has its say,
meaning for the most part, it's the respected betters that
shape the market. If you know the public and bet
millions of dollars, and then one respected better puts down

(01:51:08):
a buck on a game, and they're gonna move the
number based off of his action and not the public.
But in this case, you make exceptions for these types
of high profile games, national championship, super Bowls, standalone games
that have this kind of meaning. We might see the
public really like Minnesota on game day, probably not. They've
been chalky this year. My guess is we just stay
locked into three the whole time. But if we don't,

(01:51:29):
if we don't stay locked on the three and you see,
you wake up on Sunday morning and all of a sudden,
this is two and a half or three and a half.
That's when I would just fade whatever half point movement
it takes, because the value is on whatever number you
get on the right side of three.

Speaker 1 (01:51:42):
You always want to be on the right side of three.

Speaker 2 (01:51:44):
Really curious to see how Sam Darnold plays, because I
think you guys would probably agree with this, But it
just feels like, even though he's played fantastic all season long,
just one slip up and everybody's ready to pout. It's like, see,
I told you that's why I couldn't buy a Darnold
like it didn't buy any of.

Speaker 1 (01:52:01):
This season, YadA YadA. Yeaha. It just feels like they're
ready to pounce.

Speaker 2 (01:52:06):
But I'm curious to see how he plays real fast
before we move on to our picks. Jared, I wanted
to pay it off because you asked me, Hey, why
do you think Josh Allen's going to be the MVP
over Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 1 (01:52:18):
I think it's a spread the wealth type situation.

Speaker 2 (01:52:20):
That's a fair fact. Voter fatigue, yeah, voter fatigue.

Speaker 5 (01:52:23):
And doesn't matter you at all that the Ravens destroyed
the Bills.

Speaker 4 (01:52:28):
Early this year.

Speaker 1 (01:52:29):
No, it doesn't, it does it, because here's the thing.
How did they do it?

Speaker 2 (01:52:33):
It was running the ball between the tackles, yes, you
know what I mean, and just absolutely road grading them.

Speaker 1 (01:52:39):
And that's the thing.

Speaker 2 (01:52:40):
Lamar Jackson gained Derrick Henry like Josh Allen lost Stefan
Diggs and he's still putting up MVP numbers. But that's
the thing, man, is the thing that sucks. It should
only be about twenty twenty four. It should only be
about that season. But if Josh Allen were a two
time MVP and Lamar was yet to win one, Lamar

(01:53:01):
would be unanimous.

Speaker 1 (01:53:03):
And that's what sucks about it. Yeah, but Josh Allen
is more than just that. But that's a big part
of it.

Speaker 5 (01:53:09):
That's why I agree with your assess. I think Josh
Allen deserves to win it. I wouldn't be shocked if
Lamar won it, but I do think Josh Allen will
win it.

Speaker 1 (01:53:17):
Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 2 (01:53:18):
We got Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 1 (01:53:23):
I'm probably in not shortly after the show. Our podcast
will be going up.

Speaker 2 (01:53:26):
If you missed anything on today's show, be sure to
check it out. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you
get your podcasts, and be sure to also follow rate
and review it again. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever
you get your podcasts, and you'll see the show posted
right after we get off the year all right? Coming
up next, Pick City, USA Hunt. We each have three
of them coming up. Rapid Fire on the way. It

(01:53:48):
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by
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(01:54:10):
bet MGM will return one hundred percent of their stakeback
in cash.

Speaker 1 (01:54:16):
Are props to the crew.

Speaker 2 (01:54:17):
Patty Sweek, our guy filling in for Bob Benson, did
a great job producing today's show. Our trusted technical producer
Chris Purfett, Pride of Detroit podcast on digital. Our guy
Sager does a great job posting our clips. Good stuff,
Happy New Year to him. Top of the hour up
on game, LeVar Arrington, TJ. Hushman, Zada Plexico Burs. They've

(01:54:42):
got you covered in less than ten minutes. Hey, we
got some picks to make.

Speaker 1 (01:54:46):
Let's do it.

Speaker 4 (01:54:50):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 1 (01:54:52):
Okay, Jared, we start with you. What are you like?

Speaker 5 (01:54:55):
All right, I'll give you a point for next Thursday.
I know we've got a long way to go, but
I'm on the wrecker. I think Penn State wins next week. Obviously,
it's not all biased. I do think the defensive injuries
for Notre Dame, especially Riley Mills and maybe even Howard
Cross matter. I also think, to Jeremiah Love injury matters.
I think the two extra days to prepare matters. And yeah,
the rest of it's all Penn State Homer bias. But

(01:55:16):
now that we've passed that, let's get to some actual,
real NFL picks for this week.

Speaker 1 (01:55:19):
By the way, are you going money line there? Jared
plus one and a half.

Speaker 4 (01:55:22):
I'll take the plus.

Speaker 5 (01:55:23):
It doesn't really matter either way, but I'll take to
for the purpose of the show. Hopefully the game lands. Well,
actually no, I hope the game does not land.

Speaker 4 (01:55:28):
Hope Penn State.

Speaker 1 (01:55:31):
Plus one and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:55:31):
There you go, Chiefs Broncos over forty. This is Carson
Wentz's Super Bowl. Any argument that the Chiefs are not
going to want to try to win this game with
Carson Wentz, I know they're resting a lot of backups,
but you're telling me that those backups that are by
the way, backups on the best team in the NFL
number one seed, aren't good football players and aren't trying
to play that whole you know, argument that the players

(01:55:52):
are just mailing it in this week. They're all trying
to play, Carson Wentz included, and the Broncos defensive struggled lately,
gave up to big numbers for the Chargers, gave up
a big number to the Bengals last week. They have
a minus three day rest a disadvantage in this game.
Chiefs played last Wednesday, Broncos played Saturday, So I think
their defense a little bit and I'll go over forty,
very low total in the game with some good offensive
players and then obviously Denver trying to score, and I'll

(01:56:13):
take the Steelers plus two and a half later tonight.
Any argument that Pittsburgh is not motivated even if Baltimore
wins the AFC North in the early window is just
lying to you, because if Pittsburgh loses and the Chargers
win tomorrow, that means Pittsburgh gets the sixth seed, which
means they have to play at Baltimore in the Walkcard
round and not at Houston.

Speaker 1 (01:56:31):
Big difference there.

Speaker 5 (01:56:32):
So I'll take the Steelers plus two and a half,
Chiefs Broncos over forty, and Penn State plus one and
a half.

Speaker 3 (01:56:37):
I'll make this quick, easy, m painless for everybody. Penn
State wins that football game. Give me, give me the points,
give all of us points plus one and a half. There,
I got the Ninny Lions in the National title game.
I'll see all in Georgia. Also the over Vikings Detroit.
I know the numbers high, but this game I forget

(01:57:00):
exactly where the number landed last time they faced each other,
but it was near or over sixty points.

Speaker 4 (01:57:05):
Sixty okay, with sixty on the nose. Okay, we're at
fifty six. I think it goes.

Speaker 3 (01:57:10):
It may short beyond what it was last time they
matched up, because there's some subtle differences with this Detroit defense.
And then yeah, too many points plus twenty give me
the Cleveland Browns.

Speaker 4 (01:57:24):
It's just This isn't NFL game. This is a college
football spread. So I'll take the twenty points with the Browns.

Speaker 1 (01:57:31):
Okay, all right, now we're cooking over here. I'm gonna
go parlay on you.

Speaker 2 (01:57:36):
Oh, first one here, Ris Hey, you like the first
part of this year?

Speaker 1 (01:57:41):
Derick Henry anytime touchdown?

Speaker 4 (01:57:43):
I like that a lot.

Speaker 2 (01:57:45):
We're gonna tie that to Vikings Lions. We're gonna go
on one of these adjusted totals over forty.

Speaker 1 (01:57:54):
Six and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:57:56):
Right, it's at fifty six over forty six and a half,
those two things minus one twelve.

Speaker 1 (01:58:02):
I like that.

Speaker 5 (01:58:03):
Forty seven is a key total in the NFL, so
forty six and a half is a good number.

Speaker 1 (01:58:07):
VM. If Derrick Henry gets in the paint, how do
we lose?

Speaker 6 (01:58:12):
Real?

Speaker 4 (01:58:13):
Comebye?

Speaker 2 (01:58:13):
Yeah, I'm gonna take Steelers running back Jalen Warren over
twenty and a half receiving yards. He's a weapon out
of the backfield. Bengals defense sucks. Just to remind everybody
right there, and I'm gonna take something that's truly gross. Okay,
you guys might be like, what are you doing here?
Give me the Dallas Cowboys. They're hosting the Washington Commanders.

(01:58:36):
I'm gonna take their team total over nineteen and a half.
Washington doesn't play a great defense. They might be resting guys,
might be back door, but I think we get to
twenty or above.

Speaker 3 (01:58:48):
I stated, Yeah, I mean, I hate it when you
said Dallas Cowboys, but I like them.

Speaker 1 (01:58:53):
Nice

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