Fox Sports Radio's Countdown Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You're listening to sports.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Oh, good morning, Happy Saturday too. You hope everything is
off to a fantastic start here with Jared Smith. No
Rich today, Jared, good morning to you. I don't know
what's going on with Rich. He's got to hunker down,
focus on his padres against the Dodgers Ajer series. But
it's just you and me today.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
It's preseason. It's preseason, right. We're going through the motions
a little bit, but uh yeah, no, we're gonna have
a We're gonna have an easy, breezy show here today.
Lots of fun stuff on man.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
A ton of stuff. Lots of ball on tap today.
Man football right around the corner. Actually, you know, at
least preseason football is just a few hours away, you know,
so we've got that count Jets Giants today.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
I'm wearing my Jets hat. Big big day, big Apple.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Big day, big day when the Jets has it for sure,
you know. To start it off, Jared, the first thing
I want to do. You have any idea what I
want to.

Speaker 1 (00:57):
Do over here? You want to play a game?

Speaker 2 (00:58):
That's exactly what I want to do with That's right,
Let's do that right away. So here's the theme it's
gonna sound like I'm throwing thirteen things at you. Only four,
Only four? Okay, here's the game. Like it, dislike it,
love it, or hate it? Okay, get four choices, Mike
or dislike, love or hate Okay. So I'll just throw

(01:21):
out some stuff and we'll chop it up here. First
thing is Bears quarterback Caleb Williams will play Sunday Night
versus the Bills. Do you like it? Dislike it? Love
it or hate it?

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Love it? I mean, he was on my no show
list last week. I have a list of all the
quarterbacks that haven't played yet in the preseason. It's actually
not a list you really want to be on because
it's not especially if you want to bet on these
quarterbacks Week one for props because they tend to not
do well in the prop market when they don't play
in the preseason. But I think Caleb needs he needs

(01:57):
reps in that offense, especially with a new offense coordinator.
So I love that.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
I love it too. I don't understand why he wasn't
on the field for a driver to last week, because look, man,
you've got offensive pieces that are brand new all over
the place. You got three new offensive linemen, that interior
row line. Joe Tooney's probably not gonna play anyway, But
I mean you get some reps out there with new

(02:22):
offensive linemen, that's important. And then you've got Colston Loveland
is a rookie tight end. You've got Luther Burden is
a new wide receiver, and even with the other guys
that you've had before, just get out there. It wasn't
a work of art last year, sixty eight sacks. You
start with the Vikings Week one with Brian Flores and
that crazy defense where he's disguising coverages and blitzes, and

(02:45):
you gotta have everything on point. I didn't understand Ben Johnson,
the head coach, saying, well, the good news is although
he didn't play in the first preseason game, we're able
to get him eighty more reps. Someone explained that to me,
How how would play in the preseason game eliminate all
these reps in practice? Why can't it be both? That
never made any sense, But get them out on the

(03:06):
field tomorrow night against the Bills. I love it absolutely.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
I think another thing I think I mentioned this last week.
I would play all of my starters in at least
one play you don't even have to go for a
full series one play, because I want you warming up
and going through your actual routine that you do in
the pregame, even if you're only out there for one
fricking play. I want that mindset of it's time to

(03:34):
play a football game on a real not the pre
I know that the joint practices are becoming the new
preseason games. I get that, but you're not in a stadium.
You're not the bright lights aren't on. It's not you
don't have the same vibe in the joint practices as
you do in a preseason game. I want my player,
especially a young quarterback in a new offense, to just

(03:55):
go through the motions of warming up like it is
a real game and then go out there and take
one freaking snap. You can hand it off and then
come back to the sidelines, but I just want you
mentally going through those motions absolutely, and you can't recreate
that with the joint practice. You might get some great
reps and get some really good work in, but it
just doesn't feel like a game.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
It's gonna feel like practice. Okay, we've got a Vikings
quarterback JJ McCarthy is not expected to play today against
the Patriots. You like it, love it, dislike it, or
hate it.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
Hate it again, I just go out there and hand
it off to Aaron Jillones, go out there and throw
one little slamt route, like, just go through the most.
This kid has never started an NFL game. He's never
started an NFL game. And I understand that he got
hurt in the preseason last year, and maybe that is
the reason why Kevin O'Connell is slapping on the kid

(04:49):
gloves here. But I want to see at least one situation,
one obstacle that we overcome as a team together in
a preseason game. It doesn't even have to look pretty.
I just want him to do it. And again, maybe
I'm the crazy one here for saying that one drive,
one snap is enough and you might as well just

(05:12):
not even play. But I think it's more about the
mindset that these kids, they're kids, they're twenty three, twenty
two years old, going through that motion and going through
that exercise to get ready for a real game.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
Yeah, I hate it. Also, let's get out there, do
the whole preparation. Let's get a drive, let's get some
reps under his belt again. First year starting quarterback and
the vikings with these sky high expectations. Right, it's go time.
They won fourteen games last season, and as a first
year starter, this team's expected to win. He's expected to

(05:46):
produce right away. And so I want to give him
as much, you know, game like situations, as many reps
as possible. I'm not saying play the whole preseason game,
but I think it makes more sense to get out there,
get a little bit more c. But they're gonna play
it safe and you know, not have them out there.

Speaker 1 (06:03):
I hate it.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
I don't think it's the right approach. Okay, how about this,
So Mike Sando he does his annual quarterback tiers list. Yeah,
so he interviews fifty head coaches, GMS, former GMS league executives.
So he talks to all these people and they give
them all these quotes about all these quarterbacks and then

(06:24):
they're ranked in tiers and all that type of stuff.
I want to focus in on two quotes specifically, Okay,
and you just have to tell me do you like it,
dislike it, love it, or hate it. Now, there's an
offensive coach who says the following about a mystery quarterback.
I will say, right now, I just want to give
you the quote, and you just give me a random

(06:45):
guess who you think this quote is about. This is
what the offensive coach says. They literally cannot operate the
offense when he is not out there, and then they
are a top ten offense when he is out there.
I don't even like watching him play. But at this point, dude,
I can't say you are not that guy. Which quarterback

(07:09):
do you think that offensive coach is talking?

Speaker 3 (07:12):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (07:13):
I think it's Jared Goff. That would be my guess.

Speaker 2 (07:15):
You know who it is? Tua Tongue of iye low.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
Yeah, that that makes sense too.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yeah, it makes some sense. Yeah, like you're that guy?
You got it?

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Like that?

Speaker 2 (07:26):
Tua really as a Dolphins Maan, I'm like, really, that's
what we're going with. I don't know, man, So do
you like it, love it, hate it, or disci I'm
all confused like it, love it, hate it, dislike it
something like that, which.

Speaker 1 (07:40):
I think I like it because I understand where it's
coming from. I certainly understand when you look at what
Mike McDaniel's been able to do with Tua. I think
it's a package deal. Like I honestly think McDaniel and
Tua are a p It's like peanut butter and jelly,
like what McDaniel wants to do. I think Tua really
grasps that the problem that the Dolphins have is of

(08:01):
course health and really the offensive line. I think that's
the key this year. You need Miami to be significantly
healthier on the offensive line, and they need to be
really really buttoned up in that area. You saw the
drop off last year. I mean some of the numbers
are just insane. Here you go, so in the games

(08:23):
I was just I was doing the Dolphins deep that
the other day. In the games that Touas started last year,
the Dolphins averaged a forty five percent success rate five
and a half yards per play. If you just extrapolated
those levels out for the entire season, they're basically a
top fifteen offense across the board. In the games that
he didn't play, the success rate drops the thirty six
four and a half yards per play. If you just

(08:45):
extrapolate those numbers out for an entire season, they're pretty
much dead last in like every category. So it just
you go from above league average maybe just you know,
slightly above the mid tier, Like, you know, top twelve offense.
Let's call it with Tua to thirty second without him,

(09:05):
I mean that that is just a massive, massive drop
and the run game takes even a bigger hit. So
I think there's just so many things that he does
well and he's able to synthesize as a quarterback. Having
him on the field absolutely paramount.

Speaker 2 (09:19):
Well, the first part I love, and it's true, there's
no doubt there's a massive drop off between Tua and
any of the backups that have been trotted out there.
But that's the thing, man is, I'm not expecting Snoop
Huntley or you know, Mike E. F and White or
any of these dudes to be starter quality. There's just
gonna be a drop off. But the thing I hate

(09:39):
about the quote is we can't make it sound like
Tua is that guy, Like even though he's much better
than these backups that have been trotted out there, he's
like noticeably worse than upper echelon starters in the NFL.
There's another quote where it's just funny, these quotes can
differ greatly about the same quarterback. There's a quote there

(10:00):
that's like, have we ever seen Tua like just sling
it around. If the running game isn't working, you know,
the play action pass isn't there, and you can just say, Tua,
just take us to the Promised Land. Maybe have you
ever been able to say that? I know you can't,
So I hate the last part. You can't say with
the straight face, like Tua is that guy. He hasn't
proven he's that guy that can take a team there

(10:23):
if the offensive line is lacking, if the run game
is lacking, he hasn't proven that.

Speaker 1 (10:28):
Yeah, the run game is key. The irony is the
run game actually hasn't been that great With Tua on
the field, I think there's more upside to their run game.
I think Ashan to me is a guy that if
he really steps up and really becomes that, if he
becomes that dude, I think that makes the Dolphins offense
significantly more dangerous. I am I'm merrish on the Dolphins

(10:54):
this year. I know that's not what you want to hear.
I So now the win totals moved down, like I
bet under eight and a half very early. I think
it was actually the first win total I bet. I
think when I said it to you guys, you probably
gave me, you know, one of the one of the
poop emoji's or something like that. But it moved down
from there and now it's seven and a half. Like,
if two is healthy for fifteen games, I think they

(11:15):
win eight. But I just don't. I just don't know
if he's going to be I don't know if he's
going to be able to, you know, last a full season.
That's really the full That's really the biggest question I
have about Miami.

Speaker 2 (11:25):
You know, I'm not a poop emoji guy.

Speaker 1 (11:27):
You know, you know he was amazing. Probably in your
mind you did, probably didn't send it. Okay, So here's
the stat and then i'll give you the quote.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
You tell me if your thumbs up, thumbs down, or
both thumbs up, both thumbs down, basically right. So Carolina
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young so last year, he returned to
the lineup in Week eight. So over the final ten games,
the Panthers ranked fourteenth in offensive points per game. Pretty good.
They were thirty second across his previous ten starts, so

(11:58):
a big time improvement from Bright. Okay, now here's a
veteran coach from this quarterback tiers list from Mike Sando
he's like, eh, pop the breaks. Basically, here's this quote.
Don't get fooled by the final games of the season
when you are out of it and the teams you
are playing are out of it. That is where his

(12:18):
production came from. Everyone is excited about it. Now you
start the season over again, you are playing teams that
are game planning seriously. They have a lot to play for.
And it's different. Do you like it, dislike it, love it,
or hate it? What that veteran coach had to say
about Bryce Young.

Speaker 1 (12:36):
I like it a lot, you do. That's what I
found too when I dug into Carolina. So when he
returned to the starting lineup, he played okay at Denver,
and even when Dalton was declared healthy the following week,
I thought maybe they were going to go back to
Dalton after that, and then they didn't. And then Carolina
did win four of ten down the stretch, give or yeah,
I give them credit for that. They did win four

(12:58):
games down the stretch with Bryce, but three of those
games were in overtime, and that's just very fluky to
win three games at overtime, especially in such a short
period of time. The other win was a one point
win over the Saints where the Panthers needed to come
back in the fourth quarter. So in Young's twelve starts
last year, the Panthers held a lead at the end
of the fourth quarter just once. So I'm not going

(13:19):
crazy with how he played. And when you look at
the numbers, just straight numbers. Rookie season twenty twenty three
success rate was terrible thirty four percent. In twenty twenty
four thirty eight percent, not a massive jump. Completion percentage
rookie year sixty percent last year sixty one, So I'm
not seeing now. The TD to I and T ratio

(13:41):
was better fifteen to nine last year eleven to ten
his rookie year, so I think that was the best
metric I can look at. This says, Okay, he improved,
he threw more touchdowns, he threw one less interception, but
those are still pretty average to I would say below
average numbers even post return to the lineup. So I'm

(14:01):
not all in with the Bryce Young rebound. I think
he played better and he showed improvement, but now we're
in year three, there's no more you know, consolation prizes.
Year three is the year that the rookie quarterback is
supposed to make that gigantic leap. Are you going to
now as send to top twelve, top fifteen, even quarterback status?

(14:26):
I don't know. I'm I'm a little barish, more so
because of the defense and because they're going to be
relied upon I think to score a lot of points
because the defense is was like the worst in the
league last year. So that's where I'm a little bit
bearish on the Bryce Young rebound. So I do like
that quote.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
I dislike it. I go thumbs down. I don't go
both thumbs down because I appreciate the food for thought. Right,
it is something to keep in mind where he's like,
maybe not total buy in for twenty twenty five based
on the end of twenty twenty four. That's that's I
get it. But here's the thing in the NFL, oh Man,
we can't make it sound like these teams like one

(15:03):
after another once it hits like week twelve and they're like, yeah,
the playoffs probably aren't in the cards and it's one, two, three,
can kun you know what I mean? These teams are
freaking grinding a lot, even the teams that aren't making
the playoffs. How many times do we see this where
these non playoff teams they play hard down the stretch
and they sometimes ruin it for a playoff team that's

(15:26):
on the cusp, you know what I mean, a team
that's on the cusp but maybe getting in, maybe not
getting in, and they fight like crazy. So I don't
like that. It's, hey, you know, let's minimize what Bryce
Young did because it's at the end of the season.
I just don't totally buy that, So I go thumb
I go thumbs down, at least thumb down on that
quote where I dislike it. I don't hate it because

(15:48):
there's some truth to it, but I think whoever that
veteran coach is took it a little bit too far.
I would agree, just completely sell what Bryce Young did there,
because it was a huge improvement the last ten games
compared to the first ten games, like night and day.
I'm not telling you he's gonna be top five this year,
but I don't think that's complete fools goald. That big
time improvement from him.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
So yeah, I think it's more about can the defense
keep them in games? And how much will he be
Is he going to be asked to be mahomes this year?
Or you know, is he going to be asked to
be Josh Allen, you know, like, or what's this? I
think the ceiling is high. But man, those last four
games where he played really well, he played really well.
Last four games. Here are the defenses he played Cowboys, Cardinals, Bucks, Falcons.

(16:32):
All of them were bottom twelve pass defenses last year.
So I want to see it against a good defense
in a meaningful game, like really high leverage game, and
then I will become a believer.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
Hey, no problem, you know I'll tell you this. If
la Guette I think he's the guy who dropped the
ball against the Eagles. If he makes that catch and
they beat the Eagles on the road, yeah you know
what I mean. Like, that's December eighth, that's week fourteen.
That can change perception quite a bit as well. Hey,
we're off and running. He's Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.

(17:04):
I'm Brian No no Rich Hornberger. Today. He's with us
in spirit, though, I feel like you know he is.
He'll open up a nice drink while listening to countdown.
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(17:25):
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(18:46):
live bets, and so much more. Are we're gonna get
to some season win totals here in the NFL A
quartet if you will, Just right around the corner. First, though,
the biggest story in the NFL right now, Jared is
still Shoulder Sanders. Now, it lost a little bit of
steam because he's got that oblique injury and he's not
gonna be playing in the team's second preseason game at Philly,

(19:09):
So lost a little bit of steam. But I would
argue it's still the biggest story in the NFL. So
the question is does that make zero sense? You could say, hey,
he's a fourth string quarterback right now, He's not gonna
be QB one in Week one? What are we doing
spending all this time. You could make that argument. Or
does it make all the sense in the world where

(19:29):
he's got talent? You know, the storyline fell to the
fifth round, Famous Dad. Everybody's got an opinion. Does it
make all the sense in the world that he is
the story right here in the preseason.

Speaker 1 (19:40):
I don't think it makes all the sense in the world.
I think it makes sense that he is a story.
But I'll be honest. I watched Cam Warred play last night.
He didn't play that munch. He only made, you know,
a few throws. He made one unbelievable throw and he
made another one that was eye popping, that was incomplete
that hit Van Jefferson right off of his stone hands
and fell to the turf. I think, you know, a

(20:00):
better receiver probably makes that catch, But the throw was
I posted the video on my on my ex account.
It was like, I'm becoming intoxicated. That was the quote.
I am personally becoming intoxicated by the ceiling of cam Ward.
I think he deserves to be the story of the
preseason because I think he is the best quarterback in

(20:21):
the preseason. That's a rookie, the new quarterback outside of
maybe JJ McCarthy who's obviously not a rookie but you know,
taking over a new role. I think those two, like,
if you were gonna ask me, what's the biggest quarterback
storyline that you are interested in in terms of how
it will impact the season, I think those two guys
are top of mind for me. Shador is an interesting story,

(20:44):
but I don't think it deserves to be top billing.
The reason why it's top billing is because of all
the off field stuff, his dad, him being a bit
of a you know, a bit of a goon during
the pre draft process, and him falling in the draft. Like,
to me, that's why he's the story. But if you're
talking about strictly on field performances and on things that
are gonna, you know, matter on the field, I put
cam Ward and JJ McCarty ahead of them.

Speaker 2 (21:07):
Yeah. Well, I think it makes a ton of sense that,
you know, Shadur has been as big of a story
as he has been. It's funny because, like, when can
you say this in the history of the NFL, where
the number one overall pick who's a quarterback in cam
Ward is virtually a non story nationally compared to Shador Sanders,

(21:29):
who much more talented, but at the end of the day,
a fifth round pick is like way more of a
story than the number one overall pick. That's wild. I
don't think you can say that ever in any year
in the history of the NFL. You can say it
this year. And if you break it down as to
why Shador has been such a huge story you mentioned it,

(21:49):
you can go, you know, bullet points where it's famous father.
Everybody had an opinion on him in college. It's kind
of like the Caleb Williams thing when he was at
USC everybody had an opinion. Just transferred right over to
the NFL. And with the slide to the fifth round,
there is there's this this sort of like t bow
quality here, not saying, you know, a caliber of player,

(22:10):
but in terms of the reaction from everybody on the
outside looking in, where there's this conversation they're these believers
this guy can do it, and there are non believers
that're like, it's a bunch of fluff, this guy doesn't
have the goods yet, and there's this ready made, microwaveable
conversation that's gonna be had and had and had that
Shadeur Sanders, there's not this conversation about cam Ward where

(22:35):
people are banging the table like he's gonna be the guy,
or the opposite, like he's not gonna be the guy,
and let's fight about it until we're red in the face.
It just doesn't exist with cam Warden it does with Shadur.
So for those reasons, it does make sense. He's been
this huge of a story.

Speaker 1 (22:49):
Sure, we live in the age of outrage, if you
want to allow me to preach for a minute here,
So cam Ward, there's no outrage with cam Ward. He's
a really good player. He's had a really good college career.
He had really good numbers in college. He deserved to
be the number one pick. There is zero controversy. He's
just this is the way that the NFL operates. You're

(23:11):
really good, you're really talented, you make all the throws,
you're gonna be drafted number one overall if you're quarterback
like that, that's just the way that it works. There's
nothing to sell there. It's very bland, it's very mild.
Whereas Shador, well, there were some pundits who thought he
was a top ten pick. The betting markets thought at
one point he was a top ten pick, and then

(23:33):
he falls to the fifth round. That is made for
TV drama. You could sell that on your first eight
shows and make make a fun segment out of it.
You can probably make a fun summer out of it.
That's pretty much what they've done. But the other players,
McCarthy very bland, mild personality, doesn't have that you know,
outrage quality to him where people get they're not going

(23:55):
to feel something for that. People will feel something for Shador.
And when you cram it down your throat on every
major network for six months, it's going to continue to
resonate amongst NFL fans. Again, I'll go back to what
I feel I am. I am of the belief that
Shador is significantly better than a fifth round pick. He

(24:16):
should have been taken in Gabriel spot, probably in the
third round, probably sooner. But the fact that he was
taken in the fifth round makes this more interesting because
you have the ability to overcome the obstacle, like everybody
loves to see the overcoming of the obstacles, and Chador,
of course has that very polarizing personality.

Speaker 2 (24:36):
Okay, so let's go with cam Ward's team. If you're
looking at a season win total, let's start with that.
They're at five and a half at BETMGM. Atlies, I
know you can take every number of you you can
have the sliding scale, you go over six and a half,
over seven and a half, under three and a half,
whatever you want to go with, but I try to
get as close to even money. That's the closest right

(24:57):
is five and a half. The over at bet MGM
is minus one fifty, right, So like, definitely juice toward
the over right there, Which way would you bet it?
Would you go over five and a half under five
and a half For the Titans over five and a half.

Speaker 1 (25:12):
I think a couple reasons. One they play in the
division where you would think there is room to the upside. Two,
I don't think the market can fully capture cam Ward's upside.
And then three, I mean you go from Will Levis
to cam Ward. I mean you want some numbers here.
So in college, cam Ward's sack rate was two point

(25:35):
nine percent, best in class this year for any quarterback.
His interception rate was below two percent. In three years
as a starter, he threw five and a half touchdowns
for every interception. That was eighty seven percent tile all time.
Now let's look at Levis, he took forty two cent Now,
don't even worry about the NFL. Let's just look at
Levis's college sack college numbers. Took forty two sacks twelve

(26:00):
twelve game season in Kentucky. That's a twelve point nine
percent sack right. Again, Ward was less than three percent.
The interceptions ten in two hundred and eighty three attempts,
it's three and a half percent I in T rate. Again,
Ward was less than two percent. Levis with a one
point nine touchdown to I T ratio. Again, Ward was
five and a half. I mean, just if you just

(26:22):
extrapolate that into the NFL and we all know what
Levis did last ye don't have to go through all
the numbers. It was like a freakin' autopsy. But I
just think the core structure of what cam Ward is
as a player compared to Will Levis, the metrics, taking sacks,
throwing interceptions, there's such a drastic improvement with what you're
gonna see this year in terms of the floor of

(26:44):
the offense. I think the ceiling is considerably higher. I
don't know if he can reach that ceiling in year one,
although some of the throws I've seen in the preseason
eye popping, but I think the floor is so much
higher for cam Ward that it's almost impossible for Tennessee,
who won I think three games last year, right not
to at least get to five and I think six

(27:05):
to me is I think over five and I have
it's a good bet for Tennessee this year.

Speaker 2 (27:09):
I'm going under I'm taking the plus money here because
you said it right there at the end. Only three
wins last season, they got to double their win total.
Do I think that the Titans are good enough to
double their win total?

Speaker 6 (27:20):
Like?

Speaker 2 (27:20):
Maybe, But if you look at the road to getting there,
they play the AFC West top to bottom. They played
the NFC West top to bottom, top to bottom. Those
are two pretty decent divisions, specially if you're looking at
it from a Titans perspective. Right, So where do they
go record wise against those two divisions? We're talking maybe
like two wins six, maybe even maybe one in seven

(27:41):
something like that. If that's what they do, They've got
a whole lot of work to do to get to
even six wins. And I look at the beginning of
this schedule, also, where are the wins like five of
their First, let's say four of their first five games
are tough at Broncos, they host the Rams, at the Texans, at.

Speaker 1 (27:59):
The car Cardinals.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
I don't see a whole lot of wins. Now in
Week three they do host the Colts, and that's at
least a favorable matchup. But when we're talking, there's a
big difference between being better hanging in games and winning
games in the NFL and to double your win total
where you just mentioned it, that was a nice throw
by cam Ward and stonehands Van Jefferson didn't come back,

(28:24):
Jeff I mean outside of Calvin Ridley, who do you
love offensively as a weapon for you know, first year
rookie quarterback cam Ward. I think they're gonna be a
lot of growing pains. I'll take the plus money on
the under. How about their opponent last night in the preseason.
That would be the Atlanta Falcons. They're at seven and
a half. It's juice to the over at bet MGM.

(28:44):
Who do you like at Which side do you like
there with the Falcons?

Speaker 1 (28:47):
Yeah, I think I would lean over on Atlanta. It's
not one of my favorite plays in the preseason. I
think the schedule is relatively favorable although you do have
some tricky spots, even of ten games down the stretch
against the teams expected to have a losing record, you
do have some travel spots that are tough. But again,

(29:08):
New England, Indy, Atlanta, New Orleans Jets, Atlanta, Tampa, Arizona.
That's their stretch run. That feels like a manageable schedule.
I think, can they get off to a decent start,
I think seven and a half. Yeah, I would say
over that it's over in Atlanta.

Speaker 2 (29:25):
Yeah, I would take over as well. I just think
that it's not like Kirk Cousins set the quarterback bar
unreachingly high for Pennix Junior, you know. And then also
they went with two first round pass rushers. If you
get any sort of bump up, they've been freaking brutal
in the pass rush department for decades. Like that's not

(29:48):
under selling it at all. You picked picked up Leonard
Floyd there as well. So if Jalen Walker, James Pierce Junior,
if they make their presence known in any way, that
can make a big, big difference. Right, So yeah, I
like the over. It's a Falcons team that I mean
they got over last year. If you think about it.
They won eight games last season. Are they taking a
step back? I think, if anything, they're going forward or

(30:11):
staying the same. I don't think they're taking a step back.
I'll take them over that two other teams that were
in action last night late night. You know he had
Chiefs at the Seahawks. First off, what do you think
of the Chiefs total? Eleven and a half. You know
over is plus money plus one oh five. You like
the over or the under for the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (30:30):
I'm not betting under on the Chiefs. I have learned
plenty of lessons over the years about this team. I
think they're considerably better this year. Honestly, especially on offense.
I think if they're healthy with Rice and Worthy, I
think that offense is going to be good. In fact,
I think Mahomes is a little bit underpriced in the
MVP market. I mean, let's be honest. He gets he

(30:53):
for a quarterback as decorated as he is, he gets
a lot of he's not good enough, team's not good
enough around him, like he gets a lot of that smoke.
I think he should be right on par with Allen
and Jackson in the MVP market because I think that
offense is legit now, I think he won't need to

(31:14):
do as much because I think of those three teams Baltimore, Buffalo, Kantasity,
I think can't say he might have the best defense
of all three. Maybe maybe I slight lean to that opinion.
I could be changed off of that based off of
how Buffalo starts this year. I think they did some
nice renovation to their defense in the offseason, and of
course Baltimore is very talented. I think they fixed the
offensive line. I think that is going to be huge.

(31:35):
I mean, if if Donovan Jackson is a stud for
the Chiefs and they get him, what was it twenty fourth,
I think I mean that this is a guy that
probably was a top ten pick if he didn't hurt
his knee, and if he from from all I see
from all I hear from the depth chart, like he's
he's the starting tackle. If he's that guy and you

(31:56):
get him on the left side, you get Taylor on
the right side, I think Mahomes could have a really
big year.

Speaker 2 (32:02):
No, I do too, Josh Simmons, they're way Raven Simmons him. Yeah,
they love them, and yeah, if he's if he's what
they think he is, look out if if if Mahomes
has the protection and then he's got health around him.
We'll find out about Rashie Rice how long he's suspended.
He'll be there for the first four weeks. It looks like, yeah,

(32:24):
that's a big deal. But with Rushie Rice, Hollywood Brown,
Xavier Worthy, Travis kelce like, I think he has a
resurgence this season. We look at Kelsey as if he
had this disastrous season. It's just he didn't have touchdown grabs.
He still had a ton of catches, right, Like, he
just didn't get into the paint very often. But he
slimmed down. I think Travis Kelcey has a definitely a

(32:46):
respectable season. I'm bullish on the Chiefs. I love the
over I love him to win the division. I just
think there's way too much of an overreaction of oh,
the Eagles provide the blueprint for for what the Raiders
to beat him to. The Raider don't have half the
roster the Eagles have, you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (33:02):
Like Fango had an extra week and he always beats
the Chiefs and the Homes like that's his thing. Not
every team has a Vic Fangio scheme in defense.

Speaker 2 (33:10):
Yeah, that's right. Okay. Last one to do real fast
the Seahawks. They were in action last night. We're looking
at the preseason teams from the Friday Night slate. If
you will Seahawks seven and a half, it's juice to
the over. Which do you like Sam Donald over there?

Speaker 5 (33:25):
Now?

Speaker 2 (33:26):
Do you like him over seven and a half?

Speaker 1 (33:29):
I will say this, I think Kubiak, who schemed up
a really nice opening script for Sam Donald yesterday, I
think that match is a good match. You're gonna see
a lot more pre snet motion, You're gonna see a
lot more play action. Those are things that Sam Donald
did really well last year in Minnesota. The Seahawks did
not do any of that last year on offense. I
think Walker and Charbone are really good, but I think

(33:50):
Donald's gonna kind of revert back to his form. I
like that. That's my vibe is Kevin O'Connell has the
magic Midas touch and as good as Clint Kubiak is
as a as a scripter. I think that script eventually
will wear off and then Sam Donald's gonna have to
win you the game. And that's when I get a
little bit concerned. Defensively, I'm very excited. McDonald's an absolute

(34:14):
rock star. But if you look at the ten wins
last year, here are the quarterbacks. They beat Nicks, Williams, Brissette,
Skyler Thompson, backup, Jimmy g not one hundred percent, Kirk Cousins,
Kyler Murray twice, Aaron Rodgers on a bad Jets team
they won by five, and Rock Perdy by three late
in the year. I just I have a feeling that

(34:36):
those quarterbacks are not world beaters, and when you face
the elite of the elite, I feel like under seven
and a half's the way I'd go to Seattle.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
Yeah, I would go there too, I'll be honest. It's
a tough one because I look at Sam Donald behind
an if the offensive line. That's a horrible recipe right there.
So I like the under for that. But then I
look at the schedule and man, the schedule when you're
playing the NFC South and the AFC South top to bottom,
there are some wins in there with the Seahawks, and

(35:06):
then they're playing a second place schedule. This is the
other side of it. It's I think fairly difficult. At
the Steelers. You know, at the Commanders, on a Sunday
night and then you host the vikings. There are second
place schedules that aren't as tough as that, So you
get the thumbs up with the water down divisions if
you will, AFC, NFC South, But the second place schedule

(35:28):
is a little bit difficult. I just go back to
the team more than the schedule. And although I'm with
you on the defense, there's Sam Darnold behind an ify
offensive line. Just to say that out loud, that just
sounds all sorts of wrong. I'll take the plus money under,
I'll take under seven and.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
That that's not a situation you want to be locked
into for seventeen games.

Speaker 2 (35:47):
No, definitely not. He He's Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.
I'm Brian Know. With the iHeartRadio app, you can stream
us wherever you happen to be. Catch us and all
of our Fox Sports Radio shows live twenty four to
seven in the new and improved iHeartRadio app. Just search
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(36:08):
Sports Radio as one of your presets in the iHeartRadio
app so it'll always pop up at the top of
your screen.

Speaker 1 (36:14):
All right.

Speaker 2 (36:15):
Coming up next, the parlay platter riches out, but our
number of picks wet up. We'll have details for you
right around the corner. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented
by bet MGM. No time to waste, Let's dive into this.

Speaker 4 (36:36):
Check this out parlay letter.

Speaker 2 (36:39):
All right, so Jared the parlay platter. Normally each of
us have one selection, we bool it together for a
greater payout. We're throwing that out the window. We got
our own parlays today, we're getting crazy. Where do you
look at that here? Today?

Speaker 1 (36:53):
It's like when you go to the restaurant. Do you
want to order family style and share everything? Or I
want my own frickin entre no Today, i want my
own entree, I want my own chicken farm. And I'm
not charing with anyone. So I'm gonna give you a
playoff parla. One team in the college football world, one
team in the NFL world. Both teams to make their

(37:17):
respective playoffs. It's not the biggest payout, it's only plus
one thirty nine. But I think this is when you're
gonna sit on like an egg like a rooster hatching
hens or roosters, I don't know. I'm not a farmer,
and then hopefully the egg will hatch and there will
be money inside of it come around January early January.
Let's start with college troball. Bama to make the playoff.

(37:38):
This is minus one eighty five individually at bet MGM.
This is year two of Klen de Bor. They missed
the playoff. Last year, they had a nine to three record,
They were on the fence. They almost made the playoff,
but they lost to Vandy, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Yeah, that's
not gonna get it done. This year, they have pretty
much everyone back except Giat Campbell, who is a rockstar defender.
But I think their defense is gonna be fine with

(37:58):
Kane Wilmack, who is ascending as a very elite coordinator.
And of course no Daleen Milroe. I think that's a
positive as well. Most five stars of any team in
college football on the two D. They have thirteen to
five stars on the two D. They've got talent for days.
We know last year was a transition year. Milroe did
not fit into this offense. Now the board brings in
Ryan Grubb, you get Ty Simpson, who is an elite

(38:20):
thrower to the football. I think that offense going to
be humming this year. With Ryan Williams on the outside,
I've got man a favorite in eleven games. I think
the Georgia game on the road is going to be
a toss up, but I think they win every other game.
I think ten and two is very reasonable. I think
they're in the playoff. The Niners to make the playoffs.
This is minus one to eighty individually, easiest schedule in
the league this year. The NFC is absolutely wide open.

(38:44):
They're coming off an injury play gear and the irony
is they only won six games, but they're actually the
best eleven loss team in the history of DVA, So
I think if this team stays healthy, the floor is
significantly higher. They only got fifty seven snaps with cmc Iu,
Debo Kittle and pretty the field at the same time,
that will change this year. Niners to make the playoffs. Bam,

(39:04):
gonna make the playoff plus one thirty nine at that.

Speaker 2 (39:06):
MGM, okay, all right, I'm gonna go a little juicier
on you baseball wise some me if you like this
or not, so to me, listen the Brewers are playing
outstanding baseball. They found another way, another one right, so
it come back. They were down eight to one in
the second inning. They won. They've won thirteen in a row.
They're playing out of their minds right now. They're only

(39:28):
minus one twenty five on the road against the Reds today.
That to me stinks. So I'm gonna go the other way.
I'm gonna take the one and a half. I'm gonna
go run line on the red plus one and a half.
Gotta keep it within one they least if they're losing.
I think they can do that. I think that the
win streak's got to end at some point. So that's
my juicy first leg. I'm gonna go with the Tigers.

(39:50):
Jimmy Casey maies on the on the bump here for
the Tigers, they're much better than the Twins. It's a
general rule of thumb. You fade the pitcher named Zei. Okay,
I'm fading Zebbi Zebbie Matthews. The Quins traded half their
team at the deadline because I'm going Tigers here, and
then give me the under. In this Yankees Cardinals game,
Max freed Sonny Gray under seven and a half all

(40:14):
those legs plus four seventy three.

Speaker 1 (40:16):
Jared Nice, I like it. Hey, listen, you pay out today,
I'll pay out in January. Call it today.

Speaker 2 (40:22):
There we go, all right, nice, all right? Comeing up next?
Who are the three most interesting NFL players this year?

Speaker 7 (40:30):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (40:30):
What is going on? Happy Saturday to you. Hope everything
is going swimming? Lea, no rich today. Sorry to be
the bearer of bad news. He's out, but Jared and
myself are in and that should be good enough. Right,
it should be good enough.

Speaker 1 (40:45):
Man.

Speaker 2 (40:45):
Yeah, we'll get to the three most interesting NFL players
this season in just a minute. Hey, be sure to
subscribe to the Fox Sports Radio YouTube channel. Just search
Fox Sports Radio on YouTube and you'll see a whole
bunch of video highlight from our shows. And after you
subscribe to Fox Sports Radio on YouTube, click that bell

(41:06):
icon on the homepage and turn on all notifications so
you have easy access to our very best videos. Just
search Fox Sports Radio on YouTube. Okay, the three most
interesting NFL players? Now here's the deal, Jared, We're not
talking about the three best, Yeah, the three most interesting.
Like driving conversation, these guys are gonna be a consistent

(41:28):
focal point throughout the year, So we're we're prognosticating, if
you will, But who do you think are gonna be
the three rock stars that we are focusing on, weighing
in on. You know, people turn on sports radio or
sports TV and these these guys are just front and
center commonly, who do you think it's gonna be.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
I won't take the low hanging fruit with Shador because
that doesn't interest me that much because I don't think
he's gonna play a whole lot this year. At least.
I think the Browns hope he doesn't play, because that
means that Flacco just spins off the earth. I think
Caleb Williams is the number one on my list. I
think he is the perfect mix of talent and ceiling

(42:10):
in addition to the narrative. And when you look at
what Caleb the potential this year, I think it's more
about the marriage between him and Ben Johnson than anything else.
I think it will look better because it can't look
much worse. But I still have some doubts about consistency.
I still have some doubts about how quickly the scheme will,

(42:32):
you know, kind of formalize itself. But I think Caleb
Williams is definitely on that list. I think JJ McCarthy's
the other one, yeah, And I think it's because of
the unknown that makes his situation so fascinating and just
how good his coaches. I mean, I think of all
the coaches in the league, I'll be honest, I might

(42:52):
put Kevin O'Connell at number one. It's a tough it's
a tough ask because you got guys like Reid and
you know, other really good coaches that are I think,
you know, very much established. But what O'Connell did last
year was Sam Darnold. I mean it is again he
won Coach of the Year despite the fact he didn't
even win his division and a team in his division

(43:14):
at fifteen wins, and he's still won Coach of the Year.
Like that's how good it was. And that was tight race,
but he's still one coach of the year despite of
the Lions great great heights and what Dan Campbell was
able to accomplish. The third one is tough. I think
there's I think there's a couple of guys I would
put in this list, but just because I'm high on
this particular team and I'm hoping that I get a

(43:37):
lot of intrigue out of this player. It's Gino Smith,
and it's more about Chip Kelly than Gino Smith. I
think Vegas has a chance to really surprise some people.
I really do. I think that offense is going to
be considerably better this year. And I think Gino he's
he is a guy that has constantly proven people wrong.

(43:59):
He got brushed out from the Jets, ends up in Seattle,
renovates his career and really in a situation that I
thought he should have probably maybe not probably, I don't
know what the contract stuff was behind the scenes, but
I would have liked to see him get a chance
in Seattle with McDonald. I think McDonald inherited Gino from

(44:23):
the Pete Carroll era and he wanted to really put
his stamp on this team. But he replaced him with
Sam Donald, which I think is a step down. So
I think Gino has got that chip on his shoulder,
and yeah, pair him with Kelly and Genty and Bowers.
I mean, I think that offense is gonna be really
interesting and if Vegas can figure out way to sneak
into the playoffs, that's gonna be one of the stories
of the year.

Speaker 2 (44:43):
Wow, that is a wild card selection right now.

Speaker 1 (44:46):
Yeah, the third one was tough the first reasons the
third one was tough.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
I'm gonna start it off where my three most interesting
players this year in terms of not just who I'm
interested in, what I think that the players who I
think will drive conversation consistently. Number one is a freaking layup.
It is Caleb Williams, the Bears quarterback, where whatever he
does is gonna be front and center. And that's where

(45:10):
it differs with Shaduur. I wanted to put Shador in
my top three. I couldn't quite get there because with Shaduur,
there's gonna be some intrigue. I don't think he's gonna
play a ton There's gonna be some intrigue even if
he's not playing, because I expect the Browns to be bad,
and it's gonna be Hey, what about Shador? What do
you think about it? Do you think he might play?
You know, what do you think Shadoor? So he's gonna

(45:32):
be a talking point even without playing, and then certainly
a main focal point if he is playing. But that
dynamic I know Caleb Williams is playing all year as
long as he's healthy, and when you have a new
head coach, all the scrutiny, like we're breaking down him
throwing into a net in training camp. You know, he's

(45:53):
the most scrutinized player in the NFL right now. So
if he's playing great, they're gonna get a lot of
people like, oh, what do you have to say now
about Caleb Williams? All your neaysayers, right, that's gonna be there.
And if he's still playing mediocre football, that's gonna drive
conversation as well as Caleb Williams is certainly gonna be
a focal point all year long. I agree with you

(46:14):
on JJ McCarthy also, yeah, and a lot of it
traces back to last season. That's a fourteen win team
and it is go time. And he hasn't thrown an
NFL pass in a regular season game yet. So if
he's struggling here and there, let's say he throws a
big interception when the game's on the line early on,
it's gonna be a big time story. Let's say he's

(46:37):
playing great right away. He's got a lot of talent
around him. That's possible too, and it's gonna be like, man,
what are the Vikings capable of doing YadA YadA. So
I think JJ McCarthy is gonna be there. And you're right,
there are a lot of candidates for the third player
that's the most interesting guy this year. I'm gonna go
with Aaron Rodgers because I think there are a lot

(46:58):
of ways for us to get there. I think, listen,
if he's playing well and the Steelers are winning games,
that's gonna be talked about. If he looks like a
shell of himself, that's gonna be talked about. You know,
if he's on Pat McAfee's show. As far as I know,
the Jets were the ones that were like, Nope, can't
do that anymore. I don't know that the Steelers have
said that. So if he's doing these weekly hits and

(47:21):
he's gonna say something at some point, they lose a
game and he's like, yeah, it'd be nice if Mike
Williams ran the right route, you know what I mean,
like he did last year, He's gonna say something like
that this year. So that's gonna spruce it up a
little bit. I think there are ways for us to
get home. With Aaron Rodgers being a top three most
interesting player this year. I don't know. It could go
the other way too, because we're kind of just over it.

(47:43):
And if that's a middling team, we're not expecting great
results from him individually or the team. And if that's
kind of what we're getting, it's not gonna be a
huge focal point. But I just think he's gonna say
something at some point, and I think his game is
gonna be interesting enough we're gonna focus on him. I
just don't He's the He's the the player. We just
can't quit. As much as we want to dismiss him.

(48:06):
It's like, Eh, it's almost like Sports Radio Jared, where
someone calls in and like, why are you still talking
about Aaron Rodgers And here's my opinion about Aaron Rodgers
while we're right, like, it's that dynamic with him.

Speaker 1 (48:19):
Maybe I'm just scarred from last year with the Rogers stuff,
but I agree one hundred percent like he is going
to be front and center no matter what, unless there's
some kind of injury. I just I wanted to get
away from that narrative. And I there's so many other players,
like here's my honorable mentions, Yeah on this list. Sure,
Herbert has to be an honorable mention. I mean the

(48:40):
there is a sky high expectation with the Chargers. I
have heard so many people love this team to death,
and when I dig into the numbers, I see a
very mediocre quarterback, especially fourth quarter close games.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (48:54):
I mean they were zero and seven in their last
seven games decided by a field goal. I mean that's crazy,
Like you figured you'd luck box your way into one
of those wins. They would have had the second best
record in the league last year if the game ended
after three quarters. No other team trailed in fewer games
entering the fourth quarter. And when you have Harball, you're
always center, You're always front and center. Herbert isn't a

(49:16):
front and center personality, but he has to step into
that spotlight. I think in order for the Chargers to
reach their goal. I think Stafford's the other one because
of the injury. Is there a team outside of maybe
the Dolphins, where the starting quarterback goes down and it's
just like, man, like, we have nothing here and Devonte
Adams who goes from you know, basically hell in Vegas

(49:40):
to La where you have at least the semblance to
crawl out of hell. If it's imagined, if he goes
from Vegas. Then that quarterback situation last year finally gets out,
goes to the Jets disaster. Now he's a free eight.
Now he's in LA And then you get Stafford Hurt
and Jimmy G's your quarterback. Like It's just I think
that situation has a chance to also be front and

(50:01):
center top of mine because of just how fragile the
quarterback situation is. And I'll give you one more to
the negative that I think is going to be fascinating.
In fact, I think this one should have been in
my top three. Jalen Hurts okay, And the reason why
is not because of how good he is. He's fantastic.
It's because of what's happening behind the scenes with the

(50:23):
Eagles offense. First of all, AJ Brown's dealing with a hamstring.
I hope he gets better, but that's not something I
want to see soft tissue before the season even starts. Second,
the most interesting hire to me in this NFL offseason
besides Chip Kelly is Scott Loeffler. Who's Scott Loeffler. He
is the quarterbacks coach of the Eagles. Last year he
was the head coach at Bowling Green. How often do

(50:45):
you see a mac head coach make the jump to
the NFL to work with the defending Super Bowl champion quarterback.
You have a very odd situation on offense for the Eagles.
They promote to Petullo from within, Kellen Moore's in New Orleans.
I would not be surprised if there's a little bit

(51:06):
of uncertainty in that Eagles offensive. Remember, Sirianni and Hurts
don't work well one on one. We've established this. Yeah,
that's why Kellen Moore was brought in, and he kind
of saved the ship there. But now you're promoting from within.
So Petullo's kind of a Sirianni guy and he's the
offensive coordinator. So what's that dynamic going to look like
between Hurts, Petullo, and Sirianni. I think that's why they
brought in Laffler, who is more experienced than Petullo. Has

(51:29):
coached in the NFL before he coached Tom Brady coached
him Tebow in college. I think that's a really interesting
situation that could deteriorate very fast for the defending Jams.

Speaker 2 (51:39):
Yeah, listen, I'm not high on Hurtz. Like that's the
off season chatter is like who's QB five because most
people have in some certain order, most have like Mahomes
and Josh Allen Burrow and Lamar some sort of order there,
and then it becomes well, who's five on the list,
and a lot of people believe it's Jalen Hurts. I
am not one of those people. And I don't want

(52:01):
to make it sound like he's just some dog quarterback
because he's not. But he is operating a high performance
sports car in terms of the talent around him. And
this idea that he's the same quarterback if what you
put him on the Titans this year and he's gonna
just put up numbers and spruce up the offense. I
don't think he's that guy at all. I think he's

(52:22):
good if you have a lot around him. But if
Saquon Barkley after four hundred plus touches last year, if
he running for two thousand again, no, no, no, how
about this stat.

Speaker 1 (52:33):
This Dat's gonna blow your mind. So the play callers
for Jalen Hurts, He's had six different ones in six
years in the league, Doug Peterson, Sirianni Stike and Johnson
Kellymore now Patulo you go back to college. He's had
twelve play callers in ten seasons at the collegiate and
professional levels. So I just give him credit for learning

(52:56):
all of these new offenses and the new verbiage. I
think I'll be honest Philly to miss the playoffs, Philly underwins.
I am not sold on this Eagles offense just picking
up and going right back to what they did last year.

Speaker 2 (53:11):
Right, Yeah, that's my thing. Man, If there's more on
his shoulders, right, if Saquan takes a noticeable step back
because the wear and teil, let's say he gets dinged
up a little bit, or just you know the amount
of carries, dude, that's it's insane to maintain that type
of workload in that type of production. So if there's

(53:31):
more on Jalen Hurts shoulders, because Saquan isn't a two
thousand yard back anymore. You mentioned the aj Brown Hammy issue.
I don't know, man, it's just passing wise. He leaves
a lot to be desired. A lot of times he's
going the wrong place with the football. I just don't
love him, you know, I certainly don't have him as
a top five quarterback. You can make an argument in

(53:52):
my mind for top ten. But that's the ceiling right
now for Jalen Hurts. So I hear you, though. If
they take a step back collectively as a team and
he's scuffling, he's going to be talked about quite a bit.

Speaker 1 (54:05):
Yeah. Sure, And that offense was Siriani doing his antics
all right? Goodness?

Speaker 2 (54:09):
Yeah, yeah, so he could be He's a legit candidate
for the like one of the three most interesting players
this season. I could see that happening. Be fun. Like
Jayden Daniel's another candidate here. Yeah, if he continues the
stellar player.

Speaker 1 (54:23):
Put every quarterback on this list. Really, you can make
a case for all of them. Almost.

Speaker 2 (54:26):
We should do like a top three most interesting non
quarterback list.

Speaker 1 (54:30):
Oh, that would be a tougher list. That would be
a tougher list. That would be a much tougher list.

Speaker 2 (54:35):
We might have to do that at some players. We
will shoehorn that in sometimes.

Speaker 1 (54:38):
Yeah. I like that. I'd be interested Rich's thoughts on
that because he has a much more deeper background to
some of the especially the beefy boys up front. I
think some of the defensive linemen are really interesting. I
think those are some of the more interesting personalities in
the league for sure.

Speaker 2 (54:54):
Yeah yeah, well hey uh, there are a lot more
storylines behind besides quarterbacks, you know, and there are some
dudes like Michaeh Parsons been talked about, like Frank once
he finally gets you know, signed, and if he's productive
and all that buy any of.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
The Packers smoke that they are interested in trade for him. No,
I kind of.

Speaker 2 (55:14):
Kind of miss me.

Speaker 1 (55:14):
The Packers interesting, the pack I.

Speaker 2 (55:16):
Love it, Like behind them, it's it says insure carefully,
you know, something like that. It's one of the sponsors.
I'm like, that could not be a more fitting sponsor
for the Packers who are like, let's not go crazy,
let's not make a trade for a well known wide receiver.
Let's think about the next three seasons. And now all
of a sudden, they're just going all in for Micah.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
I'll believe that. I thought we would. We didn't mention Dak. Yeah, yeah,
I mean doesn't move the needle for you.

Speaker 2 (55:46):
He's gonna be talked about. He always is. The Cowboys
always are. But I mean it's just it's Dak, you know,
it's he's good. He's just not sizzle, you know.

Speaker 1 (55:57):
It's so I'm under on Dallas. Year. I'm over on Dallas. Oh,
I love the over on the Cowboy. Might be I
might be wrong about that though, hold on, I might
be wrong. I gotta check my win total. I don't
haven't bet a lot of them this year. Dallas, Dallas, Dallas, Dallas, Dallas, Dallas. Yeah,
I am. I'm over on Dallas. Actually, I haven't projected

(56:17):
for eight and now seven and a half. Just barely over, barely.

Speaker 2 (56:21):
This is the one year you get a discount.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
This is the yes, you do get a discount on
Dallas this year. So I think I'm over. Good call.

Speaker 2 (56:26):
All right, that's Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No.
Use code Countdown at BETMGM and receive up to fifteen
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your first bet. When you register with bet MGM, you'll
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in the business. Again, use code Countdown and you'll get

(56:48):
you don't win your first bet. Coming up next our
main man, Seamus McGee from BETMGM. He drops on by.
He'll have a shamous special. We'll look at the betting world.
There's a whole pepperham with questions that's on the way.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by bet MGM. Score

(57:11):
bigger at BETMGM. When you win with boost tokens, odds,
boost tokens and more. Even if your bet doesn't hit,
we've got you covered with no sweat tokens. And that's
not all. Sign up with BETMGM today and you'll have
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live bets and so much more. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 4 (57:31):
Follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 2 (57:33):
That's right. Our main man, Seamus McGee, team lead of
Sports Trading at BETMGM. He joins us. Good morning to you, Seamus.
I saw this headline where the NBA and their Players
Association they support limits on certain bets to curb manipulation
and abuse by gamblers. These dirty, rotten gamblers over here.

(57:53):
We want to limit their options. My question is how
much poll do they actually have. How much in influence
did they actually have to make something like this happen.

Speaker 6 (58:05):
It all comes down to the states, for one. I
mean there were a few leagues in the past that
have like requested operators to you know, pull certain markets.
You can think back to MLS requesting card markets for
some states to be down. But I will see where

(58:28):
it goes. I mean, our player prop offering at MGM
isn't necessarily even close to what we offer for the NBA,
and it's only for like really you know, bigger players
that are playing in the game. So we'll see where
that goes.

Speaker 1 (58:41):
Yeah, I think the ban all props people like that,
to me doesn't make sense. Now I think banning no
props also doesn't make sense. Like, I think there's a
gray area here. And I think those micro markets really
are the ones that are troublesome. To me, the initial
pitch of an inning to be this the are you

(59:02):
going to make this next?

Speaker 2 (59:03):
Like?

Speaker 1 (59:03):
To me, like those really micro markets really is the
best word that I can use for them are the
ones that I think are the most manipulating, manipulative or
easily manipulated. As I can get my words together, it
makes sense to ban those prop shamus. But I think
banning all props just it just like we're going too
far to the other side of the spectrum here. Does

(59:25):
that make sense to you?

Speaker 6 (59:26):
Yeah, And like the w NBA isn't even sport that
has any micro market at least most of the industry,
I can say that. So yeah, I don't know how
much it's going to matter in the long run unless
we start seeing a lot of shops really ramp up
the offering in terms of the WNBA, like you see

(59:48):
in the NBA, like well a player make make their
first shot? I know there is you know, a bunch
of viral clips of people betting that on a couple
of sportsbook rangel reef. Yeah, but you know from a
lot of the bigger ones like us, like we don't
really offer that. So it's few and far between the
first and the WNB a go. So it's interesting to

(01:00:09):
see what props they would want to get rid of.

Speaker 2 (01:00:12):
As far as season win totals in the NFL, seamous,
now is the time. Now's the time to strike. I
know you've been you know down on the Washington Commanders
like taking the under there you're fading them. Is that
the season win total you are strongest on or is
there another one that you feel most passionately about, whether
it's an over or an under for the season.

Speaker 6 (01:00:36):
That's probably the strongest one I have. I despise them,
but I really think the New England Patriots can cash
that wind total over. I know there's a few trends
out there say, like a team like them, it'd be
really hard for them to go, you know, a team
in their mold to go over their win total with
a second year QB. But it's the schedule's really easy

(01:00:59):
and reason. I also like the Niners. I think the
Niners can win thirteen games this year if they just
stay healthy. They really drew a great schedule for them.
And I guess another one I had to pick, I
could see the lines going under their win total. I
don't hate a flyer on the lines to miss the playoffs. Honestly,
they have a massive rest advantage, one we haven't seen

(01:01:21):
before in terms of rest advantage on schedules. But it's
a gauntlet of a schedule. If to play opponent wise
and you lose both coordinators, a bunch of staff from
both sides of the ball, it's going to be really
interesting to see how they fare. Hopefully, for their sake,
they can get some injury luck on the defensive side,
but as far as the offense goes, they've been pretty
healthy there for a while too, so we'll see how

(01:01:43):
that shakes out too.

Speaker 1 (01:01:45):
You know, it's funny. I'm glad you mentioned the rest advantage.
So a lot is made of that, and I've heard
very sharp people on both sides of the aisle about
how much the rest advantage or disadvantage actually matters. In
the NFL. There's some interesting data that says the bye
week has not been as beneficial lately because the new CBA.

(01:02:06):
You're not, you know, forced to practice all the time,
and that kind of takes the you know, it takes
the impetus off of the teams that have the bye week.
They usually kind of get off the reservation for a
whole week, and they don't, you know, sometimes it's actually
it doesn't help them. What's your stance on the rest advantage?
Do you think it is very much impactful actionable a

(01:02:28):
team as a rest advantage? I want to be on
that team? Or is it kind of back and forth?
Sometimes it matters, sometimes it doesn't. I go back and.

Speaker 6 (01:02:37):
Forth, like it's tough, Like I think certain spots, like
you have a team like the Jets last year who
opened up with three games, and like the span of
fifteen or fourteen days, like it's that can seem a
little taxing, But like I think it all depends on
the team. A lot of it depends on the coaching staff.
Like it is a really good coaching staff, they'll have

(01:02:57):
their guys ready to play. I wouldn't doubt that the
can be an advantage, but like it's a poor wea
coach team, Like how much rest is? How much is
the restkeing the matter?

Speaker 2 (01:03:07):
Essentially, I'm curious, Seamus, how you approach a winning streak,
because this could apply to any sport, a team that's hot.
We'll take the Brewers right now. They've been playing out
of their minds thirteen straight wins. They came back from
an eight to one deficit in the second inning last
night to win again. How do you approach that? Do

(01:03:28):
you take that into great account where they're only minus
one twenty five on the money line even though they've
won all these games, are on the road against the
Reds today. Do you look at that and say, you know,
I don't want to be a sucker and go with
the Brewers to win because it's going to end at
some point. Or are you looking and say, well, I
don't want to be a sucker and take the reds
and the Brewers win again. Or do you put that

(01:03:49):
to the side and you don't even really hone in
on that. How do you approach a team that's red
hot and won a bunch of games in a row.

Speaker 6 (01:03:57):
Personally, when it comes to MI handicapping a numbers guy,
but I could really care less how many games you
know a team is one or lost in a row.
It all depends on the on the opponents they're going
against that day. And in this case that you know
the pitcher and the lineups are going against, you know
where's the game is on the road. How do they
play more in tune to that? Just because you know

(01:04:19):
these are standalone events, just because of one yesterday doesn't
make you to give you a better advantage to winning
the next day.

Speaker 1 (01:04:26):
That's the gambler's fallacy. Honestly, what you just said is
literally the gamblers fallacy. So you know you set up
ten you know coin flips, you have ten straight tails.
The gambler's fallacy as all the next one has to
be heads right now. Actually it's fifty to fifty. Both
sides could be heads, could be taiales. Speaking of ten
in a row, it's really more like sixteen out of
eighteen the overs in the preseason shame is goodness, gracious,

(01:04:50):
you guys are probably getting killed because the public loves
to bet the over. The question is are we going
to reach a point? And I would imagine yes has
to be the answer where the numbers just move up
so much that the games have to stay under. Although
last night the games flew over the total like it
wasn't even close. There was literally no doubt in either
game that they were going over. This has to be
one of the stranger streaks you've seen in the preseason.

Speaker 6 (01:05:12):
And it feels like you're definitely seeing a market correction there,
Like these totals seem way higher than like a few
years ago, Like there's nothing under thirty five and a
half like on the board today, So pretty crazy. I
do think we might get to a point where maybe
we dial it Backenouch, just because I do feel like,
I mean, this feels high, like I'm reading stuff coming

(01:05:34):
out of the Jets Giants joint practices where it's like
the offenses just can't do anything, and the total sitting
at thirty nine and a half today, Now.

Speaker 2 (01:05:43):
We go right into a sham as special?

Speaker 4 (01:05:45):
Is that it?

Speaker 2 (01:05:46):
Or are you going somewhere else for that pick today?

Speaker 6 (01:05:49):
It is? I like the under in the Snoopy bull
it met on today.

Speaker 4 (01:05:53):
I think it's a good point.

Speaker 6 (01:05:55):
I hope the Jets backups looked really good against you know,
Malik Willis and Clifford for the Packers last week. I
know it's the'll probably step up in class quarterback wise
with with Dart Winston and Devido going today, but I
don't know. Thirty nine and a half seems a lot
I liked. I don't know what are we going to

(01:06:15):
get from Adrian Martinez and Brady Cook today as well,
so we'll see. I like under thirty nine and a
half points there, all right there?

Speaker 2 (01:06:21):
It is great stuff is always seamous and hopefully that undercash.

Speaker 1 (01:06:25):
Is for you like it?

Speaker 2 (01:06:26):
Good stuff?

Speaker 4 (01:06:27):
Thanks guys, we go one you too.

Speaker 2 (01:06:29):
There is Seamus McGee, team lead of Sports Trading at
bet MGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by
BETMGM and it is time for this.

Speaker 3 (01:06:40):
One out.

Speaker 4 (01:06:40):
Nobody on won one pitch that swung on and well
here tepe to slight right center.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
That ball is gone.

Speaker 3 (01:06:48):
It's a home run Porteosker Hernandez and.

Speaker 1 (01:06:53):
It's three to one Dodgers.

Speaker 2 (01:06:55):
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convenient installation options like mobile tire installation tiraq dot Com
the way tire buying should be. All right, Jared, you
ever see pet owners like like my girlfriend will do this.
We have Oreo, the neighborhood cat. You'll come visit us.
You know, she's awesome. She's hanging out right now taking
a nap. You know, it's like she loves sports radio

(01:07:39):
in the morning and she just kind of zones out
right there. But my girlfriend shol so grab Oreo's tail
and like kind of flick it in Oreo's face and
then she might bite the tail. You ever have like
pet owners that do something like that, right, this is
kind of like me doing that to you, Okay, like
and you might like start chasing your tail. I know

(01:08:01):
how you feel about your Penn State Nitney Lions.

Speaker 1 (01:08:03):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (01:08:05):
And I heard something this week that I just had
to play on the show because I had to get
your reaction. This is Chris mad Dog Russo. He was
on first take, And normally I don't play like minute
long clips of dudes on first take just throwing out
sports opinions. But this is just too good. This is
too good with your your Penn State you know background

(01:08:27):
over there. I had to get your opinion on him
basically calling out James Franklin, small game James and that
I know you hate that, but sample this what mad
Dog said on first take about your Nitney Lions.

Speaker 1 (01:08:40):
Here you go.

Speaker 7 (01:08:40):
Did you see the preseason college football polls that came out.

Speaker 3 (01:08:44):
Earlier in the week.

Speaker 1 (01:08:45):
How was Penn State number two in the country.

Speaker 3 (01:08:47):
Yes, I know their schedules not that difficult.

Speaker 7 (01:08:49):
But he never wins a big game, lost layast year
obviously at a Notre Dame.

Speaker 3 (01:08:54):
I don't care about the SMU. That's not a big game.
The quarterback I do not like in a big spot.
He was terrible down the stretch again Irish and.

Speaker 7 (01:09:01):
Franklin was He owned ten against the Buckeyes. He never
beats them in Michigan and he has to play in
Columbus this year. How is Penn State, with their history
under Franklin in big spots?

Speaker 1 (01:09:11):
How are they getting?

Speaker 3 (01:09:12):
I know their schedules easy, but this is stupid. Second
in the country. We start the year second, Penn State.

Speaker 7 (01:09:19):
That I don't care about who they bought that, I
don't care about their defense. I know Nevada the Lenovo
easy early. I get all that they are not the
second best team in college football here on August thirteenth.
You know why history they never ever ever respond And
that has to go into the equation when you're doing

(01:09:41):
these rankings.

Speaker 3 (01:09:42):
That is a joke.

Speaker 2 (01:09:43):
WHOA all right? Okay, so selling Penn State. Technically, you
know James Franklin won in ten He won one time
against Ohio State. Yeah, we think get the numbers right, man, though, yes,
if that one win counts, man, we get oh I
aver that one win.

Speaker 1 (01:10:00):
They died the field goal returned it to the house.
That was a fun game.

Speaker 2 (01:10:03):
Yeah, okay, So what do you think here, mister Penn State?

Speaker 1 (01:10:07):
Nit me lying, Let me take a deep breath, let
me just collect my thoughts for a minute before I
absolutely obliterate.

Speaker 2 (01:10:14):
Mad Dog for this terrible thing.

Speaker 1 (01:10:15):
Okay, all right, No, listen, it's fair to have doubts
about them winning a national championship. I think it's fair
to have doubts about the quarterback. From everything I've heard
from inside the locker room, people who have played with him,
he is not the most mentally strong of kids. Wow.
The good news is that is something that can be

(01:10:37):
taught over time, or can be I guess learned over
time through experience, through heartache, through overcoming obstacles, through failure,
which they had last year, and he's had a lot
of it in his first two years. The take that
their team isn't good is it's crazy. It shows how
uneducated mad Dog is on college football. And I'll call

(01:11:00):
him out right here, Hey, mad Dog, come on the
show and debate me about Penn State, because their defense
is absolutely loaded. And when I say loaded, I mean
you're gonna hear guys' names that you probably haven't heard
of before guys like Zane Durant and then Identa Sutton,
and those guys are gonna be maybe not on the
level of Abdul Carter, but right there. And then they

(01:11:23):
bring in the brightest mind on defense in college football
in Jim Knowles, who was unbelievable last year coaching up
a lot of talent at Ohio State. Now, the offense,
the holes were absolutely at receivers. So what did they do.
They brought in Payna, They brought in a kid from
USC Hudson, just absolute rock star receivers in the transfer portal.

(01:11:46):
They have two elite running backs Singleton and Allen. And
I think the best part of their team tip of
the cap to our power Tornberger, who's not with us today,
is their offensive line. I think their offensive line might
be the best in the nation. And I don't care
how bad you are in big games. When you have talent,

(01:12:07):
a lot of times it covers up those wards. And
I will concede that point. Penn State has not won
the big game under James Franklin, but I will also
push back they have not had the better players in
any of those games. Now usually to be considered an
elite coach you can take average talent and make them

(01:12:30):
look great, kind of like what Kevin O'Connell did the
Sam Donald last year. So I'm not calling James Franklin
an elite coach, but I freaking hate this narrative Big
Game James. He hasn't had the better team in any
of those games. He's been the underdog in all of
those games. So this narrative about James Franklin needs to die.

(01:12:55):
It needs to die. He is an average coach that
has not elevated the talent around him, but now he
has the most talent of anyone, perhaps in the nation.
And for you to ignore that point about how good
this roster is, Mad Dog, it shows me that you
don't know ball, period, end of story. You don't know Ball.

(01:13:18):
I honestly believe they have the best roster in the country.
I think they're better than Texas. I think they're deeper
than Texas. I think they're better than Ohio State. I
think they're deeper than Ohio State. Now, does that mean
Drew Aller is going to show up in these games?
That's the part of the take that I agree with
on Mad Dog. I think that Drew Aller is really

(01:13:39):
the reason why Penn State won't reach their full potential
this year. It's not James Franklin. He has not had
the players to win in those scenarios. Now he does,
but Aler has to take that next step, especially between
the ears. He has all the talent in the world,
but he comes up small in big spots. That is

(01:14:00):
the part of Penn State's season that concerns me the most.
It's not the game at Ohio State, it's not the
game against Oregon. It's not James Franklin. It is Drew
Aller getting out of his head and getting into his
body in big moments. And if Penn State does that,
I truly believe, in my heart of hearts, If Drew
Aller takes that next step, I truly believe, deep down

(01:14:24):
for the first time ever in my thirty nine years
on this earth, that Penn State is going to win
the national championship.

Speaker 2 (01:14:30):
Well, here's the thing. The record speaks for itself, and
this idea that I'm with you halfway, and then I
take a sharp left turn and like, not with you anymore,
Jared Smith, not with you anymore? Like this idea I
hear you halfway where a lot of these losses the

(01:14:51):
other team has been more talented. Okay, fine, but how
many times go back to last season Ohio State was
oozing with talent. They're twenty one point favorites at home
against Michigan. They lost again against Michigan. So this idea
that just because you aren't more talented, that gives you grace,

(01:15:12):
that gives you a free pass to have these sucky records.
You're one in ten against Ohio State, You're one in
eighteen under James Franklin at Penn State against top five teams.
It's a freaking joke. And this idea that, oh, everybody
brings up small game James, that's because he's earned it.
He has earned it through loss after loss after loss

(01:15:32):
after loss after loss. So that's what it is. And
to get rid of it, it's going to take actually
coming through in those spots you should come through when
you have more talent. But I don't buy this idea
of like, oh, a free pass he didn't have more talent.
It's there are upsets all the time, all the time.
Just because you don't have as much talent doesn't mean

(01:15:54):
it's okay to lose steadily, which he has. So he's
earned that reputation in that nickname that I know you hate,
but it is fitting.

Speaker 1 (01:16:03):
M Yeah, I more hate to take that mad Dog
gave because he was very, very negative about a lot
of things that he is not educated on. Yeah, Penn
State's right. There's a reason why they're number two in
the country. There's a reason why number two number two.
It is because the team is absolutely loaded.

Speaker 2 (01:16:25):
They are load dead.

Speaker 1 (01:16:28):
And if they underachieve, then the Big Game James narrative
will fit. But if they win the national championship this year,
or even if they get to that, that's what it's
gonna take this year. Yeah, I think we need a
Maya Kolpa well from mister mad Dog.

Speaker 2 (01:16:46):
We'll cross that bridge if we ever get to it,
but uh, I'm betting against that happening. We've got Jared Smith.
I almost heard the the Nitney Lyons fight song in
the background when you were you're really going in there?
I was, well, because I just think, I know, I know,
we gotta go, you gotta go, Brian.

Speaker 7 (01:17:01):
Though.

Speaker 2 (01:17:02):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. Coming
up next, we get a prop it up right around
the corner, all right, So we'll look at the prop
betting market and maybe some super charged season props as well.
Two for the price of one, hang with us. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by BETMGM. It is
Fox Sports Radios Countdown presented by bet MGM. Use Code

(01:17:26):
Countdown at bet mgm and receive up to fifteen hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if you don't win your
first bet. When you registered with BETMGM, you'll get instant
access to a variety of parlay selection features, live betting options,
signature bets, and the best daily promotions in the business. Again,
use code Countdown and you'll get up to fifteen hundred
dollars back in bonus bets if you don't win your

(01:17:47):
first bet. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 4 (01:17:52):
Prop it up player plays.

Speaker 2 (01:17:55):
All right, Jared, we start with you the prop betting market.
What is a prop that you like today, or this
weekend or three months from now. It could be anything
you like.

Speaker 1 (01:18:05):
I'll go today. I'll give you a baseball prop today.
I was scanning the picture markets and this one really
stood out to me. Rico Garcia, who is Rico Garcia.
He is the opener today for the Orioles they are
facing the Astros. I expect Garcia to go an inning.
Kykovich will be the bulk reliever. Well, you can bet
under one and a half strikeouts f Rico Garcia. This

(01:18:27):
is price debt minus a dollar thirty over at at MGM. Again,
I think he's gonna go one inning, so he's probably
got to get two strikeouts in just one inning of work.
He's gonna face Jeremy Payne, your Carlos crej, Josel Tube,
Christian Walker at the top of the Astros lineup. The
Aster has been swinging some hot sticks lately, especially Correa
who just got created back to Houston, and all four
of those guys very below average strikeout rates, and the

(01:18:49):
Astros as a team in general very low key rate
over the last month of the season. So I think
Rico one and done will go under one and a
half strikeouts for the opener for Baltimore.

Speaker 2 (01:19:00):
I like that play. That's an interesting play right there
by you Next year, it's smith. It's funny too, like
you're just rooting for outs. Just put the ball in play, please,
just I love it when it's a one to two
count and you're like, just don't swing at a pitch
like nine miles out of the strike zone, you know,
and we're good. Yeah, I'm gonna go with my guy,
Brian Whoo, the Mariners pitcher. He is the pac man

(01:19:25):
of MLB this year. He is just eating up innings, man.
He is twenty three starts this season. He's gone six
innings in all, twenty three starts, at least six innings.
Sometimes we'll go seven innings. Right, So today against the Mets,
who are freaking brutal, man, they've lost fourteen of sixteen.
All right, so our guy, Brian wu pitcher, outs eighteen

(01:19:50):
and a half. So he has to get through six
and a third, right, we got to get into the
seventh inning. Gotta get at least one out.

Speaker 1 (01:19:57):
The over is juiced to plus one five.

Speaker 2 (01:20:01):
So let me get this straight. Met's suck right now,
Brian wo has gone at least six innings every single start,
and I got to get to so he's gotten eighteen
outs every single start. I gotta get to nineteen outs
and it's plus one thirty five. I'll take that. I
will take it. Give me Brian wo over eighteen and
a half outs, all right, coming up next? If you

(01:20:22):
get three chances to pick a champion. Which three teams
are you going with?

Speaker 7 (01:20:28):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (01:20:29):
What is going on? Happy Saturday? Too? You hope all
things are going swimmingly for you. So we've got college
football on the brain here, Jared Smith? How can we
not with this epic Week zero slate that is right
around the corner?

Speaker 1 (01:20:43):
Man?

Speaker 2 (01:20:43):
I got wow, we're talking?

Speaker 1 (01:20:46):
What is it?

Speaker 2 (01:20:46):
Case State Iowa State? Is that even the game?

Speaker 1 (01:20:49):
That? Whoa is that I have that right?

Speaker 2 (01:20:53):
I don't know if I have that right that heck matchup?
Like if that's bro if that's mid season Impact Saturday.
You don't even look at that game unless you're a
diehard fan of one of those teams or have a
huge bet on the game. You're not going out of
your way for k State Iowa State. That's the best
we got in week zero? What are we doing? What
are we doing? But I want to be next game?

Speaker 1 (01:21:15):
But it is week zero, so we're gonna watch. We will,
and also I think beyond during our show next week.

Speaker 2 (01:21:20):
But beyond during the show.

Speaker 1 (01:21:22):
I think it's yeah, because it's the it's it's in Ireland,
so it starts super early. Oh I think it starts.
It might start at eight am no, sorry, it starts
at nine am our time.

Speaker 2 (01:21:31):
Okay, so we're counting down to kickoff.

Speaker 1 (01:21:33):
Yeah, there we go. All right.

Speaker 2 (01:21:35):
So I saw there was a bet from a an
Arizona better On bet. MGM, it's gonna sound like a plug,
but it's really not. So in June, this better he
bet on three college football teams, each of them to
win a championship this year. Right, So the thinking is
he gets three cracks at it. So he put down

(01:21:58):
three hundred thousand dollars on Texas to win it all.

Speaker 1 (01:22:01):
Yikes.

Speaker 2 (01:22:02):
He put two hundred thousand dollars on your Penn State
Ninnee Lyons to win it.

Speaker 1 (01:22:06):
All, double yikes.

Speaker 2 (01:22:09):
And then he put one hundred and fifteen thousand dollars
on Clemson to win it all triple yikes. So if
any of those three teams win it all, he would
basically profit about one point five million dollars. Okay, So
he bet six hundred and fifteen k three college teams

(01:22:30):
to win it all, and so if one of them does,
he wins about one point five million dollars. The question is,
if you are putting money on three separate teams to
win a championship this season, which three teams are you
going with?

Speaker 1 (01:22:45):
It's definitely not Texas. And here's why. Wow, Okay, nineteen
of the last twenty one teams ranked number one in
the preseason, eight people have failed to win the national championship.
Sorry Texas. The two outliers there are Bama in twenty
seventeen and USC in two thousand and four. So and
I'm not saying that trend is the end all, be

(01:23:05):
all of everything happening in college football, because there's obviously
more to it than that. But I am not going
against that trend. I'm gonna let that trend play out.
And I think Texas is very good, but I am
not betting on Texas win the national championship. I can't
bet on Penn State to win the national championship. As
much as I do think they are the best team

(01:23:25):
in the country. In my heart of hearts, I believe
they are going to win, I can't bet on it.
There's a difference between my heart and my head, and
my brain says they are not the team to bet on.
I think Bama is on my list. I think Bama's
top of my list. I think you are going to
know the name Ty Simpson very quickly, and I gave

(01:23:46):
this to you guys in the parlay platter Bama to
make the playoff, which is minus one eighty five. I
think they are absolutely loaded and there is a lot
of pressure on the board this year after missing the
playoff last year. And I think they're twenty to one
to win the national championship, which again no, sorry, ten

(01:24:07):
to one, excuse me for Bama. I think that's a
good price. Again, they are one, two, three, four, five, six,
seventh best on the board to win a national championship.
But I think they have the most talent outside of
maybe Penn State. In terms of their roster, they're too deep,
So I would say Bama at ten to one, you're
getting a bit of a discount the other teams. I

(01:24:30):
would be willing to take a flyer on Clemson because
I think they have the easier path than the other teams.
Perhaps at the top right that ACC is soft Sharman
Ultrasolt I like Club Nick. I think defensively they are elite.
They might have the best trench game in all of

(01:24:50):
college football outside offense. Date trench by the game like yeah,
O line, D line, like just absolute trench warfare. The
reason why I wouldn't bet Clubnick to win Heisman, same
reason why I wouldn't bet Aller or are Commanding to
win Heisman. I just think those defenses are so good
You're not going to be relied on to score a

(01:25:10):
lot of points. You don't need to drop forty every
game like cam Moore did last year in order for
Miami to win games. I think twenty one to seventeen
is gonna get it done most weeks for Clemson. So
as much as I'm high on them in terms of
their win loss total, in terms of their ability to
win a national championship, I don't think Cake Club Nick
for Heisman is a bet I'd be willing to make.

(01:25:30):
But Clemson nine to one, I think that's a fair bet.

Speaker 2 (01:25:33):
Okay, the third.

Speaker 1 (01:25:34):
One, man like, how far down the list.

Speaker 6 (01:25:39):
Do we go? Right?

Speaker 2 (01:25:42):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (01:25:43):
Wake?

Speaker 2 (01:25:43):
I think goes yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:25:46):
No. But here. So here's the thing about Notre Dame.
I think Notre Dame is a good, not great team
this year in terms of the national championship picture. I
think their experience and their trench warfare is elite. I
just am a little bit concerned with the weaponry on
the outside. I think Jeremiah Love is an absolute rock star.

Speaker 2 (01:26:07):
That's kind of it.

Speaker 1 (01:26:08):
Now, maybe one of these quarterbacks comes in and changes
my mind. Have they announced the starter yet?

Speaker 6 (01:26:12):
No.

Speaker 2 (01:26:13):
It seems like it's gonna be CJ. Carr, but no
official announcement. That's my thing, Jared, is when you look
at just quarterbacks of these teams, like on the short
list to win a championship, I wonder how big of
an advantage it's gonna play out to be a caid
club nick at Clemson having him with real experience compared
to Ohio State, new guy, Georgia, new guy Notre Dame,

(01:26:37):
new guy, Alabama, new guy. You got new guys all
over the place on the short list of teams to
win a championship. And so like your guy Drew Aller,
even though we're like eh in big spots because he
faltered against Notre Dame and the footwork is iffy, but
he's got real experience, so he has a leg up
on a lot of teams that have quarterbacks that they're

(01:26:59):
just breaking. So how big of an advantage is that
going to be, Say, at the end of the season,
when we get to the playoff and these young guys
have gotten a good amount of experience, but they don't
have playoff experience. You know how big of a difference
is that gonna make for some of these teams that
have experienced quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 (01:27:15):
It's very fair. So here's another trend I'll give you
on the AP. So the AP preseason poll, which came
out this week has actually been pretty predictive of national
championships in the past. So a team has never in
the last ten years CFP ERA won the national championship

(01:27:35):
from outside the top six in the preseason AP. It's
always been a top six team. Wow, it's crazy, isn't
that crazy? Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame.
That's your top six. So if that trend holds and
you got Oregon and Bama there seven and eight. Like,
I think that those two teams are right there. But
if that trend holds, then it's gonna be one of

(01:27:58):
those six teams. I would still include Oregon and Alabama
in this In this mix, I think the national championship
will be won by one of those eight teams. Okay, Jexas,
Penn Sate, Ohis State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Name, Oregon, Alabama, Like,
I think you can eliminate everyone else. Honestly, I think
Georgia is intriguing. I just I don't know how much

(01:28:19):
I trust the quarterback. But the rest of that roster
is absolutely loaded.

Speaker 2 (01:28:23):
Yeah, they'd be one of my three teams.

Speaker 1 (01:28:26):
Yeah, I think Ohio State's got to be in there too,
But I just don't trust the offensive synergy with Heartline
and Day with Julian saying, but I mean that roster's
loaded too, I know it.

Speaker 2 (01:28:36):
Yeah, when you're the new quarterback and it's like, all right,
who are my weapons?

Speaker 1 (01:28:41):
Uh?

Speaker 2 (01:28:41):
Well, we got this guy, Jeremiah Smith. Yeah, good car.
We got Cardinal Tate to work with. We probably got
some running back. Might not be a household name. Give
it like three weeks, he will be, you know, like
it's you got talent the lord. The one thing I
wonder about with Oregon speaking about returning talent, they have
hardly any returning talent coming in there. And it's Oregon.

(01:29:03):
They're gonna reload, right, They're gonna have dudes. But how
long does it take to gel? How long does it
take to gel against the elite teams? Right, You've got
like one and a half starters on one side of
the ball, three starters on the other. That's it. You
got like five starters returning collectively for them. That's so low.

Speaker 1 (01:29:23):
Yeah, Dante Moore is gonna be a rock star. I
think Oregon's gonna be fine. Like, I'm actually very concerned
about that Oregon game at Penn State. I think it's
week four, it's like the end of September.

Speaker 2 (01:29:33):
Well, if it's a big game, i'd be concerned about
Penn State.

Speaker 1 (01:29:38):
Okay, you took you took the tail again? You smacked me?

Speaker 2 (01:29:41):
Yeah, yeah, right, my three teams if I'm doing with
this better did Yeah? In Arizona I would go. I
actually would go Texas. I would go Texas Georgia and
call me a homer, but I would go with my
Irish as well. You know, all top six teams. That's
a crazy stat with, isn't it top six team? Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:29:58):
So the lowest team on that list was the Burrow
LSU team. They were six. I think it's eight out
of eleven. So there's been eleven national champions in the CFPr.
Eight out of the eleven started in the top three.
How about that?

Speaker 2 (01:30:12):
Well, yeah, I was just you know, rapid fire with
those three Texas, it's a talent deal. They've got their defense,
they've got dudes Man and Arch Manning taking over. I
think arch is probably going to be more productive, more
reliable than Quinn yours was last season. And you might
not be blown away by that, but I think that's

(01:30:32):
enough to make a big difference. So I believe in
Texas's talent. I think they're going to be a very,
very tough out at the end of the season when
we're getting to the playoff Georgia. You mentioned it, Jared,
they are stacked and if Gunner Stockton can bring it,
and there's REASONAB believe he just in such a tough
spot where it's like, hey, kid, first start, it's Notre Dame,

(01:30:53):
it's a playoff game, you know, like have had. That's
a really tough spot. But I think that he can
be productive. I believe in Kirby Smart. I think he's
the best coaching college football and the Irish. I know
that you know when you're bringing in breaking in a
new guy and CJ. Carr and but you mentioned it,
Jeremiah Love takes a lot off of his plate. Yeah,

(01:31:14):
and that defense man, you can make an argument their
top five. Phil Steele was on with Cowherd this week
and he was like, I got him as a top
five unit at every level. The line, linebackers, secondary, their
corners are really really good. So I absolutely have them
in the mix to win a title. Twelve to one.
That's not bad. If you got three bullets.

Speaker 1 (01:31:32):
I don't.

Speaker 2 (01:31:33):
I'm I'm not ashamed to have the Irish as one
of my three bullets to win a title.

Speaker 6 (01:31:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:31:38):
I think they're if the quarterback situation congeals itself quickly,
I think.

Speaker 2 (01:31:45):
They like that very nice.

Speaker 1 (01:31:48):
Yeah, I like that. I think that is I think
that is a team that again, the trench warfare is elite. Absolutely,
that's right.

Speaker 2 (01:31:57):
I love that.

Speaker 1 (01:31:58):
I'm listening. Football has these words to them that just
kind of stick in my crawl trench, the trenches.

Speaker 2 (01:32:05):
But you're right, like a lot of times we focus
so much on the quote unquote skill position players, and
they matter. They matter a ton. I'm not saying they don't,
but it begins up front. And if you're just getting
shoved around, forget it. If you're doing the shoving, you
are live. You have chances every single week to get
it done.

Speaker 1 (01:32:25):
Notre name will not get shoved around this year. None
of those teams in the top six are getting shoved around.

Speaker 2 (01:32:30):
No One, no one a house. It pushes us around nobody.
Right now, you're betting like a fool over here. I
don't mean that in a bad way. But you got
season win total bets galore shared. Yeah, you got Bama, TCU, Baylor,
you got all the What are a couple that you
like the most?

Speaker 1 (01:32:49):
So I'll give you a couple of big ten ones
because I think there's a couple that really stick out.
Washington over seven and a half really stands out to me.
I think the quarterback Williams is gonna be a rock star.
We didn't really see a ton of his upside last
year because Washington was kind of going through a little
bit of a transition. Right leave Kaitlin to Boord Leeds.
You're bringing Jed Fish. That renovation took some time. But

(01:33:11):
they bring back Williams, they bring back Joonah Coleman. Like,
if you don't know who Jonah Coleman is, you're gonna
have to know, because this dude is like a bowling ball.
I think we bet on a lot of his props
last year. If you were a fan of the show
last year. I like the offensive line, I like the
defensive line. I think they are much better than what
the ranking indicates. They're going to start the season outside
the top twenty five. A lot of really sharp people

(01:33:33):
have them inside the top twenty five. And the schedule
is very manageable. Colorado State, UC Davis, Wazoo. Those are
your first three games. You're starting three and oh there,
and then you play Ollile State at home. You would
obviously expect to lose that game. Then it's Maryland, Then
it's Rutgers Michigan. Tough game on the road in ann Arbor.
But I think the real reason why I like a
couple of these big ten teams to the over is

(01:33:54):
I'm down on the Illinois hype, and Washington gets Illinois
at home, and I think that's a win for them,
even though it's a toss up game. Illinois supposed to
be really good this year. I'm down on Illinois, So
I think USC Washington these are teams that play Illinois
this year. Those are the overs that I like. I'll
give you USC next over seven and a half. Lincoln Riley.

(01:34:15):
You can't go six and six this year, Bud. I'm sorry,
not with the talent that you have on this roster.
And I love the start to their schedule too. Missouri State, Georgia,
Southern Perdue, Michigan State. You're starting four and uh like
you're four and oh right out of the gate. Then
you go to Illinois and we expect that. I don't
think we've seen a higher preseason ranking for this Illinois
team in quite some time. A lot of excitement Altmeyer

(01:34:37):
comes back, but I'm just not that bullish on Illinois.
So if I think there is a misprice on another
team in the Big ten and I get a chance
for teams in the toss up scenario to be on
the plus side of that, I like over wins for
both of those teams and seven and a half. Listen,
USC going eight and four doesn't sound like a very

(01:34:58):
sexy year, but you're getting paid on that. So I
think USC over seven and a half, Washington over seven
and a half. Because we're fading the Illinois hip this year.
I think those are the two Big ten totals out
of the target. Man, I hear you.

Speaker 2 (01:35:10):
Yeah, it's interesting it ties back to Illinois. Yeah, it
just blows my mind. If when Lincoln Riley was hired
at USC. If you would have said, hey, you know,
twenty twenty five season, their season win total is going
to be seven and a half, you'd be like, wow, really,
that'd be really hard to buy when he took over,
and here we are pretty wild right, We've got Jared

(01:35:31):
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(01:35:53):
back in bonus bets if you don't win your first
bet coming up next. These criticisms are harsh, man but
a lot of them are completely fair. It's Fox Sports
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betting options, including new look, same game parlays, teasers, live bets,
so much more. I love that music. I feel like,
you know, just jogging running outside or something upbeat? Is
that Chris is that featured in the movie Snatch?

Speaker 3 (01:36:35):
It was in the Matrix?

Speaker 2 (01:36:36):
The Matrix. Oh, I didn't know if that was a
Have you seen that with Brad Pitt and great movie?
Ye Statham. I don't know if that's at the beginning
there as well, might be not sure, all right, Jared Smith,
We've got some scathing criticisms of NFL quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 (01:36:53):
I love this.

Speaker 2 (01:36:53):
So it's the annual QB tiers list that comes out
compliments of Mike Sando. Is it with the Athletic Now
And he talks to all these head coaches, GMS, NFL
execs and they give them these unfiltered, anonymous comments about
quarterbacks and some of these, man, they're harsh, but I
would argue completely fair. Listen to a couple of these.

(01:37:15):
So this is a defensive coach on Cardinals quarterback Kyler
Murray right, he says, creates the mismatch with his legs,
not his arm. He's a Tier three quarterback with the
good looking baseball slide after his fourth scramble in a
two minute drill. Ouch, that's what do you think about?

Speaker 6 (01:37:35):
That?

Speaker 2 (01:37:35):
Is that on point? Although harsh, on point, very harsh.

Speaker 1 (01:37:39):
Can I just say in general, I can't stand anonymous quotes.

Speaker 2 (01:37:43):
Just own it, man, Just I get it. I know,
I know the Herm Edwards. Put your name on it.
But that's sometimes when you get the good stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:37:50):
Yes, but also if it's that good, put your freaking
name on it. If it's really that spot on, own it.
Ten toes down, chest out. In this particular case, I
think it's fair to say that we haven't seen the
best of Kyler Murray. I think it's really more the

(01:38:13):
second half of the season where he's fallen off. His
first half numbers were pretty good last year. Second half
of the year not so great. The improvements I need
to see are throwing the deep ball based off of
my numbers, but nine touchdowns, eight picks from week eleven
on last year. That's the bigger issue for me, is
it seems like he's more easily figure outable digestible, like

(01:38:38):
you kind of need to, you know, digest the meal
first and then once you get to the second half
of the season he doesn't. And maybe that's because his
legs tape are off a little bit. But yeah, I
think it's fair criticism.

Speaker 2 (01:38:49):
But just put your name on it, bro, Well you're
not gonna get that in this, you know. Sorry, But yeah,
like I said, I hear you. And that's the thing.

Speaker 6 (01:38:57):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:38:57):
What it makes me think of, though, Jared is it
makes me think of Cliff Kingsbury because I've read a
lot in the offseason where it's like, hey, Jaden Daniels,
he still has Cliff Kingsbury, so yeah, I don't know,
he might drop off a little bit. It's like, well,
Cliff Kingsbury had Kyler Murray. Do you think Jaden Daniels
is better than Kyler Murray? Absolutely?

Speaker 6 (01:39:19):
He is.

Speaker 2 (01:39:20):
So why do we believe that anybody like Jaden Daniels
he's going to be the next to fall off just
because of Cliff? I mean I think Cliff fell off
a lot because of Kyler, Right, Like that fair all
ties together? How about this to a tongue of I
lois so there's a defensive coach that said this about
to harsh, but true. I've yet to see him carry

(01:39:42):
his team when they are not clicking in other phases.
Has Miami ever won where their run game is getting killed,
they can't hit play action stuff, and it's time. It's
just time for Tua to sling the ball. And it's like, yeah,
it's a good point. We really haven't seen that, have we?
I don't think so.

Speaker 1 (01:40:00):
To be fair, in the last three years, Tua is
the only quarterback in the league to rank top five
in every major category. How about that? Not granted, he
hasn't played a lot of those games. He's missed a
lot of time, but he's been pretty darn successful. Again.
Out of sixty four quarterbacks with at least two hundred
attempts in this span, third and EPA third, and success

(01:40:22):
rate second and YPA second, and completion rate second and
fifteen yard explosive pass. Right. I mean, when he's on
the field, it's really hard to say he's not a
good quarterback.

Speaker 4 (01:40:33):
No he is.

Speaker 1 (01:40:34):
He's not on the field.

Speaker 2 (01:40:35):
Yeah, I know it that. You know what, and don't
take this as a slight Jared, you might actually agree
with this some Penn State vibes with Tua. From the
standpoint of this, he's been productive, he's had wins, but
in these big games, these big moments, where are the
big wins from Tua? And it's not all his fault,
but I mean, do you trust him going to Arrowhead

(01:40:56):
in January? It's like, oh God, this is a freaking rap.
Until he has those huge wins, that's just going to be.

Speaker 1 (01:41:02):
His rep I would agree again though, when I look
at the numbers and I look at when he's on
the field only quarterback, There's only been three quarterbacks in
the league besides Tua that have led their team to
a winning record in each of their first five years
in the league. It's Mahomes, It's Lamar, It's Josh Allen
and Tua. So when he is on the field, it

(01:41:24):
is really hard to say. He is not an elite quarterback,
but his availability has been the biggest issue.

Speaker 2 (01:41:30):
Yeah, no doubt about that. Now, this one, this is harsh,
but it's just funny. I just have to read it
because it's funny. It's an offensive coach on Jets quarterback
justin fields. Oh boy, okay, and this coach says the
Jets know who he is. It starts off positively. They
know who he is, what he is, and they are
going to try to structure things for him. The problem

(01:41:52):
is the hardest thing to fix with the quarterback is
keeping their eyes up the field, seeing the field, and
not being a affected by the rush. And those are
three of the worst things that he does. Like other
than that, we're cooking with grease over here, but these
three important things. Man, he sucks at those things. You know,

(01:42:13):
that's what he's saying.

Speaker 1 (01:42:14):
So again, I did a deep dive on fields in
the offseason. I just the numbers are just really bad.
I mean, so I had one hundred and twenty seven
qualifiers in this sample every quarterback with at least four
hunder passing attempts in their first four years since two
hundred and twenty seven quarterbacks in this sample one hundred
and eleventh in EPA, one hundred and seventeenth in success rate,

(01:42:37):
one twenty fifth in sack and I in t rate,
one twenty fifth in pressure rate, one twenty sixth in
just sack rate overall. I mean, it's just I mean,
you're talking about here are some of the other guys
in fields' tier that was ranked in this database. Deshaun Kaiser,
JaMarcus Russell, John Skelton, Zach Wilson, Ryan leaf ej Manuel Harley, Fry,

(01:43:00):
Josh Rose, and Chad Hutchinson. Oh, those are the other
quarterbacks that are kind of in the vicinity of Fields's
efficiency numbers, success rate numbers, sack rate numbers. That's who
we're comparing him to.

Speaker 2 (01:43:12):
That is the worst neighborhood in the world. Like whatever
you think is a bad neighborhood, that neighborhood that you
just throw there is way.

Speaker 1 (01:43:20):
With some serious names on that list.

Speaker 2 (01:43:22):
Brother, that's really bad. Yeah, all right, let me give
you one here. This is about Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Okay,
now you hear the tiers. It's a little wordy, but
just so we understand the difference between a Tier two
and a Tier three quarterback as they define it on
this Mike Sando list. Okay, So, a Tier two quarterback
it's a quarterback that can carry his team sometimes but

(01:43:44):
not as consistently, can handle pure passing situations in doses,
and possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate
him above Tier three. He has a whole or two
in his game. All right, that's a tier two quarterback.
Tier three quarterback is jitimate starter, but needs a heavier
running game and or defensive component to win. A lower

(01:44:06):
volume drop back passing offense suits him best. Okay, so
that's the backdrop tier tier three. Here's a former GM
on Jalen Hurts. I think he's a three. They are
very talented around him, and he is not as consistent
as a passer. They have a strong defense, great playmakers,
great offensive line. He is able to function that way,

(01:44:26):
but I don't know that he is the one that
elevates them. That's not a slight. He's a good player,
but putting him in that two category, I don't see that.
What do you think about that?

Speaker 1 (01:44:38):
I would agree again when I look at Hurts, when
I dig into some of those numbers, a lot of
it was masked for two reasons. One, you have Saquon
Barkley last year. I don't think it's fair to grade
Jalen Hurts based off of his efficiency. You have to
account for Saquon. That allows a lot more one on
one opportunities on the outside for the Eagles receivers who

(01:45:00):
are uberly talented. The second reason why I think Jalen
Hurts gets kind of an easier road is because the
Eagles are basically four down territory. Every single time they
have the ball, they only have to get the fourth
and one. If it's third and four, you can run
the ball because if you can set up fourth and one,

(01:45:20):
you're going touch push. So you kind of get this
built in safety blanket in the play calling for Jalen Hurts.
And then when you look at the pressure, the pressure
rates the second thing and the turnover worthy play rate
are the two things that really stood out to me.
Eagles offensive line was great last year, but Jalen Hurts
was still pressured at the second highest rate of any
quarterback in the NFL forty one percent of dropbacks. He

(01:45:42):
took pressure why his time to throw rate and his
processing speed is just a little bit too slow, and
he made a lot of really boneheaded plays last year
that didn't result in interceptions. He had a three and
a half percent turnover worthy play rate, which ranked twenty third,
but he only threw five interceptions. He had a similar
turnover worthy play rate two years ago and threw fifteen picks.
So we kind of got a little lucky with the

(01:46:03):
turnover battle. I think the interceptions are gonna increase this year,
and if the run game efficiency drops even one notch.
This and again I talked about earlier with Loeffler and
and Sirianni and Patulo, like kind of the game planning
for the offense for the Eagles, you're throwing the AJ
Brown soft tissue injury. I am very barish on the

(01:46:24):
Eagles offense this year. I hear you.

Speaker 2 (01:46:25):
I'm with you, But I can envision someone listening to
a bunch of numbers that you threw out and saying,
shove him, he wins. Right For those people who say that.
For those people who say that, I would push back
on them saying that, because I would point to Nick Foles,
Eagles quarterback won a Super Bowl journeyman the rest of

(01:46:46):
his career. Okay, just because you win on the biggest
stage doesn't mean you're that guy, regardless of the talent
around you. You put Jalen Hurtz on the Titans and
you think that he's like a top five, top ten quarterback, chance,
No way, he's that guy. I point to another guy.
Look at Jimmy g We're not that many years removed

(01:47:06):
from you. Remember these people Jared like, he just wins,
like loud volume, Like this was right before perty. It
just transitioned right into he just wins. Jimmy, g Yeah
he did. He won a lot of games. He was
a win away from winning a Super Bowl, and then
he left the Niners and he went to the Raiders
and guess what, the winning just evaporated into thin air.

(01:47:29):
Where are the wins? Jimmy, I thought he just won?
Like who, you're surrounded by matters, and Jalen Hurts is
surrounded by the best roster in the NFL. If you
put him on a much lesser roster, like a bottom
ten roster, it's a rap. So that might seem harsh,
but it's true. I'll give you one more and then
we'll get to these cheating, low life Wolverines, you know,

(01:47:52):
he said. Defensive coordinator on Caleb Williams. Now, think about this.
A defensive coordinator right going up against Caleb Williams, he
had this to say. He's got the talent to go
up but in terms of processing ability and getting the
ball out of his hands, it was the worst we
played against. He just holds the ball forever. I'm thinking

(01:48:13):
the ball should go right there, throw it, throw it,
and he did not throw it. As the quote from
the DC, that's a defensive coordinator saying, like, dude, throw
the ball. You know you would want as a defensive
coordinator for him not to throw the ball. But it
was so egregious. He's just like, the ball should be out, man,
that's a legitimate knock.

Speaker 1 (01:48:32):
Very fair criticism. I think that though, I would rather
that be the knock than he just doesn't have the
arm strength to get the ball there. Because I think
Ben Johnson can smooth out a lot of those wrinkles
like you get. You know, it's like when you graduate.
When I used to, you know, live in New York
City and I had this little podunk dryer and all
my clothes would come out wrinkled even after the dryer.

(01:48:54):
And then I moved into a bigger place in Jersey
City a couple years later and I had one of
those really nice, you know dryers. I put those clothes
in the dryer. Man, that stuff came out smooth as silk. Baby.
I think Ben Johnson is going to smooth out some
of those wrinkles. He's the ge dri he is the
advanced level drying system for your clothes. No, I mean,

(01:49:16):
you know, play action pre Snott motion, the ability to
get Jared Goff into very easy readable situations. Play action
is really the key. The Bears hardly ran play action
last year. They had one of the lowest play action
rates in the league forty two at of forty six
qualifying quarterbacks, just a twenty six percent play action rate,
where Jared Goff had the fourth highest. Like, those are
things when you are back to the defense, but you

(01:49:37):
are making the reads easier for your quarterback. I think
that is where we're gonna see. The biggest progression with
Caleb Williams. The question is how quickly can he pick
up an offense. I think it might start slow and
you might get a little bit of a of an
ascent later in the year. That's why I like the
Vikings in that Week one game.

Speaker 2 (01:49:53):
Yeah, no, interesting, I think that. Look, man, there was
a lot of Caleb Williams. One, it's either slowly processing
things he's a rookie, you know, give it a little
bit of time. Or two he's just trying to hit
a big play. Yeah, he did that consistently at USC.
It's just not gonna work in the NFL. You can't
be looking for He's not looking for.

Speaker 4 (01:50:11):
A home run.

Speaker 2 (01:50:11):
He's looking for a grand slams plural in almost every game.
And it's like, bro, it doesn't work, like you got
to take a five yard out. Just stay on schedule,
you know, quick, easy, five yards, three yards, just keep
it moving. You know, he's got to learn how to
do that, because I don't have a problem with you
looking for a big play. You just can't do it
as much as he does it and get sacked sixty

(01:50:32):
eight times. So you're right. Hopefully Ben Johnson will be
able to straighten a lot of that out. But he's
got to play a lot quicker man, a lot quicker
in the NFL. Okay, these cheating Wolverines over here, new punishments,
the signs stealing scandal. So they're gonna be fined about
thirty million bucks, big deal. I think they can sneeze
thirty million dollars and be like.

Speaker 1 (01:50:53):
That's like one and a half Brice Underwoods.

Speaker 2 (01:50:55):
Yeah, they're not gonna vacate wins, which I'm a fan of. Jared,
I'm curious you think about this. One of the themes
from this whole cheating scandal, the new punishments. The NCAA
was like, well, we really don't want to punish the
new players who had nothing to do with this whatsoever,
So we don't want to just like slap like all

(01:51:15):
these scholarship reductions and probation and no bowl games at all.
We don't want to do that, And we don't want
to take wins away from the past because they weren't
playing with ineligible players. So if you're not doing anything
for the future or the past, it's money. I guess
that's about the only thing you really.

Speaker 1 (01:51:35):
Can do here. Yeah, I am not a fan of
punishing the current players based off of the sins that
Like you don't punish the son for the sins of
the father, like I just I'm a firm believer of that.
We saw this with Penn State and it was it
was horrible what they did. I mean, they were they
ripped that program down to the studs for and made

(01:51:56):
those kids lives miserable for things that they weren't even
alive for when it was happening.

Speaker 2 (01:52:00):
Like, it's crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:52:02):
That being said, there does need to be some kind
of come upance because just finding them thirty it's.

Speaker 2 (01:52:09):
Got to be It's crazy and if you're if you're
suspending a Sharon Moore for a couple of games, it's
got to be a big game. It can't be oh,
hey we're at Nebraska, Okay, cool self and post stuff.
Yeah its Central Michigan. What are we doing? Come on, man?

Speaker 8 (01:52:27):
Like that's I think some people have brought up this
point too, and I think Doug dodleyb had this point.
But like, finding them thirty million dollars isn't going to
really do anything to the football program, but it will
hurt like other programs, Like they'll take away money from
like the swim the swimming team or the lacrosse team,
but like they'll they'll just funnel that immediately back into
the football program.

Speaker 1 (01:52:47):
It's also setting a precedent that you can cheat and
we're not gonna hurt you. We're just gonna take a
little money away and slap you on the wrist and maybe,
you know, make a fool out of you for a
couple of weeks. But it's got to be two years,
I know.

Speaker 2 (01:52:59):
And this is all we got after all of this.
It's basically a slap on the wrist. It's a joke.
The other thing it makes me think of is the
more you accomplish, the more you get scrutinized. Because if
you look at the Patriots, Okay, this is Michigan's sign
stealing scandal, and for the most part, it's a shoulder shrug.

(01:53:20):
You know, certainly you're gonna get some Ohio State fans
are completely bent. I don't make it sound like everybody's
shrugging their shoulders. But for the most part, Jared, right,
are you getting Patriot like venom toward mission? Not even
freaking close where it's the Patriots. They have Spygate and
all that, and it's made out by a lot of

(01:53:42):
people to be the ultimate advantage in the history of football.
And meanwhile Michigan has this elaborate sign stealing scandal, and
for the most part, it's like, eh, you know, what
are you gonna do? It's amazing Like if Michigan had
rattled off six titles in a span like the Patriots,
oh people would be going freaking crazy. But they have

(01:54:03):
one title, so it mostly is you know, like barely
one raised eyebrow and that's it.

Speaker 1 (01:54:09):
Here's the part that really rubs me the wrong way.
There were other programs complicit in this, like they admitted.
The NCAA admitted in this release of the investigation that
Stallions was on the Central Michigan sideline. That's right. That
means Central Michigan was complicit in this. Who gave him
the pass? What do he just show up? Who gave
him the CMU gear? Like it just I feel like

(01:54:31):
there is a deeper web here that really got untouched
by this slap on the wrist.

Speaker 2 (01:54:38):
Right, And they were like, you know, uh, Connor Stallion's
basically threw his phone in a pond, like you're not
gonna get any of this, you know, footage of me
at these games. I shouldn't have been at getting these signs.
I shouldn't have been recording and and they're just like
I guess there's no proof.

Speaker 6 (01:54:55):
Huh.

Speaker 2 (01:54:56):
It's like what how it whatever? Crazy? But you're right,
you said it best took two years to get to this,
two years for this crazy. I've got Jared Smith FSR
betting analyst. I'm Brian and no, if you missed anything
on today's show, you'll want to catch the podcast. Just
search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts. Right

(01:55:16):
after the show, today's podcast will be posted. Be sure
to follow the podcast rate at five stars, and you
can even provide a review.

Speaker 1 (01:55:23):
Again.

Speaker 2 (01:55:24):
Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts
and you'll find today's full show posted right after we
get off the air. Coming up next Rapid Fire. We
each have a bushel of picks. We'll throw it your way.
It's like man trimming the fat. I have about eighteen plays.
I like, I got to just mention Three's a task, right,

(01:55:46):
but we'll do it. We'll trim the fat and get
you some picks right around the corner. It's Fox Sports
Radio's Countdown presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios
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Speaker 1 (01:56:05):
And that is not all.

Speaker 2 (01:56:06):
Sign up with bet MGM today and you'll have access
to countless betting options, including new look, same game parlays, teasers,
live bets, and so much more. Props to the crew,
our trusted producer Bo Benson. Check it out the Dodger
Zone podcast. Even with the podreys right, all kinds of
stuff down the stretch in MLB with Bo's podcast, our

(01:56:28):
trusted technical producer Chris Purfett killing it and shout out
to our guy Sager on digital posting our clips on
social media does a great job. Appreciate it's hard work.
Top of the hour up on Game DJ Huschman, Zada,
Plexico Burst. They've got you covered in less than ten minutes.
Keep it locked right here on Fox Sports Radio. All right,
we got some picks to make. Let's do it.

Speaker 4 (01:56:53):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 2 (01:56:57):
We start with you, what's something you like?

Speaker 1 (01:56:59):
So can I just stay for the record forty five
thirty and three since football season for these rapid fire
picks that I mean, I do not expect that during
football season. That is great. It's like a sixty percent win.

Speaker 2 (01:57:10):
Right. You are the opposite of small game, James.

Speaker 1 (01:57:13):
Yes, it has been a really good off season for me.
I think we're gonna start the football contest not week
zero right, week one?

Speaker 2 (01:57:20):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:57:21):
Is that what we've been doing in years past?

Speaker 2 (01:57:22):
Brian, I'm lined with me because week zero sucks.

Speaker 1 (01:57:25):
Yeah, Week zero suck yeah. So we have two more
weeks of quote unquote off season plays and then we'll
start our new football contest Week one. I'll have some
preseason plays for you right now. Jets plus three and
a half against the Giants. This line is move six
points from the open. The Jets work two and a
half point favorite. Now they're plus three and a half. Typically,
if you fade the steam in the preseason, you do
pretty good nine and one against the spread if you

(01:57:47):
fade the six point or bigger moves in the preseason
over the last three year. So we're gonna do that today.
It's gonna be a close game. Nip it talk. Hopefully
it's a field goal finish. Jets plus three and a
half over the Giant and the overs have been all
the ray Man this preseason. I'm not betting any overs today,
but if these numbers continue to climb, I think you're
gonna be on the right side of some line movements

(01:58:08):
for Sunday and Monday, which is when these two games
are gonna get played. Bill's Bears over forty one and
a half. You get Kayleb Williams, Tyson Bage, and Case
Keenan's been pretty good in the preseason and not bad
in the regular season. Two sometimes against Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky,
Mike White. That feels like an over to me. And
Bengals commanders over forty two and a half. This is
more of a defense Fain. Commanders gave up five and
a half yards per play to the Pats and Ben

(01:58:29):
Woolridge Josh Jobbs. Little Bengals gave up almost six yards
per play to Tanner McKee, dtr and the Eagles. Points
points points commanders, Bengals over forty.

Speaker 2 (01:58:38):
Two and a half. Okay, all right, So I got
a tweet here from David and it says, okay, Brian
Ton of games today in NFL, don't give some lame
WNBA plays in rapid fire.

Speaker 1 (01:58:51):
So you know what I have to do? Three WNBA plays.

Speaker 2 (01:58:54):
I can't give you three, but I'm leading off with
WNBA play just based on principle here, right, I'm gonna
go with Emma Mesiman. Give me under fifteen and a
half points. She's played well. She's been an asset for
the New York Liberty. They're at the Minnesota Links today
and a lot of ways to get home.

Speaker 6 (01:59:11):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:59:11):
Our teammates John Quell Jones, Sabrina Yinescu, a lot of
players that can put up points. So I'm gonna fade Emma,
I'm gonna go under fifteen and a half. That's a
pretty high points total, so I'll take under.

Speaker 1 (01:59:23):
There.

Speaker 2 (01:59:24):
You're right, Jared, The overs have been the rage in
NFL preseason. I'm gonna go with this Patriots Vikings game
over thirty eight points. The Patriots got smacked around in
joint practice by Minnesota something fierce, and so I think
that helps them when the game rolls around, right, there's
a pride factor. Mike Frabel is gonna be all over them,

(01:59:47):
So I expect the offense to look better against Minnesota
fast track. Just give me the over if it's under forty.
You know, I'm looking for the over based on how
things have gone here, and I'll throw in one more baseball.
I love my Brian on the mound today for the Mariners.
Give me the first five Mariners money line. Give me
minus one minus a dollars forty. I think the Mariners

(02:00:10):
take care of business in the first five.

Speaker 1 (02:00:12):
There you go.

Speaker 2 (02:00:14):
Maybe I should have done three WNBA places.

Speaker 1 (02:00:16):
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (02:00:17):
Good stuff? Have a good day,

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