Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness football?

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Fans, Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation.

Speaker 3 (00:09):
That Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Presented by Bett make it legendary. We're setting you up
with the information you need to watch your team win.

Speaker 4 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
We're here to break it all down.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
By Bett emg app. No, we're live from your tailgate.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger,
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 4 (00:45):
Oh, what is going on?

Speaker 5 (00:46):
Happy Saturday to you, another full day of college football action.

Speaker 6 (00:54):
Smell it in the air. Good morning, Rich, Good morning.

Speaker 5 (00:59):
We got Rich and Jared over here. And yeah, you know, listen, man,
smells like ball.

Speaker 4 (01:04):
That smells like ball.

Speaker 5 (01:06):
Smells like ball today. And I'll tell you what before
we get to the previews, one particular review, My gosh,
we just have to rip the band aid off sometimes,
you Penn State reacks, What do you have to say
for yourself?

Speaker 3 (01:24):
What?

Speaker 5 (01:25):
What in the name of James Franklin was that last week?

Speaker 6 (01:28):
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 7 (01:30):
What in the name of James frank James Franklin indeed,
you know, it's a tricky thing navigating these waters because
as a alumni and a former football player with Penn
State and I I'm going to be driving up the
I five and watching Penn State take on U C
l A and the rose Ball hoping for different results.

Speaker 4 (01:53):
Uh yeah, this one good at that one. I think
about this one. Yeah.

Speaker 7 (02:00):
But but as a as a as a Penn stater
and uh and and watching that game heartbreaking, right, you
know you don't you don't ever want to see results
like that. However, if you can remove yourself and zoom out,
and this is hard to do, if you had any
rooting interest in this game, try to remove yourself just

(02:22):
from that and look at it through the purview of
just somebody who enjoys football. What a game, Holy smokes.
I mean, it had drama, the scene was set. The
comeback was awesome. I give them a lot of credit
for getting back in the game, tying that game, getting

(02:42):
into overtime. The first down interception was something less than awesome.

Speaker 4 (02:48):
In overtime, that one hurt a little bit.

Speaker 7 (02:50):
But but that was an incredible game and a gutsy
performance from a team who obviously was favored and went
down and and had battle their way back on their
home field.

Speaker 4 (03:02):
Uh, it was.

Speaker 7 (03:03):
It was a great effort, a poor result, and again
another unfortunate notch in the growing list of failures for
James Franklin's program to get over the hump against top
competition in in the FBS.

Speaker 4 (03:20):
It is now.

Speaker 7 (03:22):
I don't know if you want to call it a
self fulfilling prophecy, guys, but but there's there's a problem
here and it's got to get fixed, and it's got
to get fixed soon. Because there's a lot of money
that's funneling into college football. That's a big time program,
that's that's taking a lot of contributions from a lot
of people. There's a lot more voices in the room

(03:43):
than ever before, and when opinions start to sour, even
if they're unfounded opinions, it doesn't matter if it's if
it's the opinion of those who are contributing the most.
And unfortunately these opinions aren't unfounded. There is results, there are,

(04:03):
you know, implications being made that really don't have defense. Jared,
I don't know how you feel about the whole situation.
I did see some of your tweets following the game,
So I'll let you fill in the blanks. But I mean,
I was heartbroken for the team, but as a college
football fan, I was enthusiastically, charismatically rooting for a great game,

(04:28):
and that's exactly what we got.

Speaker 8 (04:31):
Yeah, let's start with the good.

Speaker 9 (04:33):
Dante More is the real deal, probably gonna win the Heisman.
Oregan's legit. They're young, they're very talented. They're a fun
team to watch. Dan Lanning has this team playing with
an edge. He coaches with an edge, and I don't
expect them to be a dog much for the rest
of the year.

Speaker 8 (04:52):
There's your positive the negative.

Speaker 9 (04:56):
I honestly believe, and I'm not trying to be hyperbole.
I know this is a radio show where we're trying
to get clicks and likes and attention. I honestly do
believe that is the worst loss in the James Franklin.

Speaker 8 (05:07):
Earro I do.

Speaker 9 (05:08):
I think there's two reasons for it. One obviously, expectations.
They're supposed to win the game. They're favored by more
than a field goal. You have all the intangibles, you
had the week off, you haven't played a soul, you
had an entire month to prepare for that game. But
in reality now we have to face the reality that

(05:28):
Jim Knowles was the highest paid coordinator in the sport.
The team had zero sacks. They hit Dante Moore three times.
I mean, that's a there's no opinion with that's that's
the fact of the game. That can't happen in a
big time college football game when your defense is supposed
to be the best unit on the field.

Speaker 8 (05:49):
They weren't.

Speaker 9 (05:51):
Oregon's offense, their offensive line, Dante Moore best unit on
the field in that particular instance.

Speaker 8 (05:56):
Obviously Drew Hallard.

Speaker 9 (05:57):
The numbers are just five and a half yards per
attempt looked uncomfortable all night. The offense gained thirty eight
percent of available yards, the average in a college football
games in the mid fifties. Usually usually you gain, maybe
on a bad night, right on an average night, fifty
percent of the available yards you're gaining. For context, that's
what Georgia gained against Alabama in their loss last week,

(06:20):
fifty percent of available yards. Penn State gained thirty eight percent.
Where is the assertiveness, the aggression. It didn't happen until
they're down two scores in the fourth quarter. Then they
started taking shots down the field. Oh guess what, then
the offense wakes up. That needs to be the mindset
from the jump, we are better offensively against your defense.

(06:44):
We are taking shots down the field. If it's not
the mindset from the jump, that starts at the top
of right the tip of the spear the head coach
and filters down. The mindset is let's just run the
ball and hope we can get by in this game.
That was the that was the game plan. Now, maybe

(07:06):
they don't trust Drewaler enough to go out there and
execute the game plan, and then when desperation seeps in,
then they have to Maybe they just don't trust Drew
enough to go out there and sling it from the jump.
Maybe if that's the case, then you've got the wrong
kid at quarterback.

Speaker 8 (07:22):
Maybe they didn't have a good game plan. I don't know.

Speaker 9 (07:24):
I'm not in the room, but I do know when
all of a sudden, they're down two scores in the
fourth quarter and they're taking shots down the field when
everyone knows they're gonna be taking shots down the field,
and they're completing them and scoring points. I'm thinking to myself,
why wasn't this the start of the game. Why warrant
these games. Why weren't these shot plays in the opening
script of the game. I just I have no words

(07:47):
for it other than the worst loss in the James
Franklin era. Because they can't seem to figure out how
to win these games. And if they can't win this game,
you don't deserve to be in any big game for
the rest of the season. Now, maybe they make the
playoff off and they get back to the Final four,
but the same thing is going to happen when they
actually face a team worth their salt, like Oregon is.

(08:08):
And that's that's just the that's the truth of it
to me.

Speaker 6 (08:12):
I do have a question.

Speaker 5 (08:15):
You know, our good friend d DJ Khalid, right what
he said another one? Another one that was he talking
about like another hit song you know that's as pop
or was he talking about another Penn State disappointment?

Speaker 6 (08:30):
I have legitimate questions about it.

Speaker 4 (08:32):
That's not a legitimate question at all. It could be.

Speaker 6 (08:36):
It really could be.

Speaker 5 (08:37):
So you know, you hear him like matched up with
I don't know, like a hot artist like Rianna. They
come out with a new song and another one. He's
really talking about Penn State the whole time.

Speaker 6 (08:47):
I mean, we need to investigate this.

Speaker 5 (08:48):
It might be the case, but I do, like you said,
one key phrase and that whole spiel there, Jared was
sling it and uh, you know that's the deal with
with Drew Aller over here. It's a weird mixture where listen,
I'll be glass half full for a second.

Speaker 6 (09:06):
The season isn't lost.

Speaker 5 (09:08):
Maybe they can do their their Ohio State impression, right,
Ohio State had some other.

Speaker 6 (09:14):
Well they will. They should make it. They should be
in there.

Speaker 4 (09:17):
They should.

Speaker 5 (09:18):
But like that's the thing, like Ohio State lost as
a three touchdown favorite at home to Michigan again, that
was as embarrassing as it gets. And this is really
embarrassing for Penn State to lose again another one. But
it's not all done. It's not all lost. The season
is still ongoing for them. But that's the thing, getting

(09:41):
back to the sling it thing. Man, When you are
so careful with Drew Aller to the point where Penn
State gained sixty nine yards in the entire first half,
that's obnoxious. And it reminded me of there's a great
SoundBite of Tom Brady. It's from NFL Networks America's game.
So this was the first Super Bowl. The Patriots won

(10:03):
Super Bowl thirty six. Remember it was tied seventeen to
seventeen against the Rams. Patriots are huge underdogs and all
of a sudden they have this aggressive last drive to
set up a game winning field goal by Adam Vinteri.
I totally agreed with John Madden during that game. He's like, whoa,
what were they doing over? They're throwing it in their
own territory is way too risky, And the next thing

(10:25):
you know, they're Super Bowl champs. But this is Tom
Brady talking about a conversation he had on the sidelines
before that final drive, and I think it applies to
Drew Aller.

Speaker 6 (10:35):
Check this out.

Speaker 10 (10:35):
It's seventeen seventeen. Well, my first thing is I go
up to Charlie and I say what are we doing?
And he says we're going. So I said, all right,
what's the first play? And Charlie says to me, is
I'm sure Bill's sending his here. He'd better take care
of that ball. So Charlie yells at me.

Speaker 8 (10:50):
He says, hey, take care of that ball.

Speaker 10 (10:53):
And Drew was kind of standing next to me and
he kind of just shuffling in front of that and
he says, Dad, go out there and slim right, and that's.

Speaker 5 (11:02):
What he did and listen like you know, Drew Owler,
Tom Brady, But the concept remains the same. I think
Drew Aller can feel like don't mess up. He can
feel the coaching staff. He can just feel this like hesitancy,
this like freaked out nature of like don't make a mistake.

(11:22):
That's how he's playing. He was way too careful with him.
He's way too careful in the first half. And like
you guys said, when they opened it up, touchdown, touchdown,
boom boom, and then the sad thing in double overtime,
it's a hideous interception and the game is lost. So
I would rather air on the side of aggression. Yeah,
he's gonna make some mistakes, but being too careful, which

(11:45):
is what they are, that's a mistake too, And I
would rather that he just goes out there and slings it.

Speaker 6 (11:50):
He's got real ability.

Speaker 5 (11:52):
He's playing way too careful right now, and they're not
gonna go anywhere if that's the approach with him.

Speaker 7 (11:58):
I complete completely agree. I completely agree. When you play scared,
you play inside your own head. When when you play
cautious you're you're overthinking.

Speaker 4 (12:11):
When you play free and loose.

Speaker 7 (12:13):
Yeah, you'll make mistakes, but at least you're gonna make
them going a million miles an hour. I feel like
Drew Aller is bridled by the restrictions placed on him.
I feel like we haven't seen an unrestricted Drew Aller
play football.

Speaker 4 (12:31):
At the collegiate level yet.

Speaker 7 (12:33):
Uh And and unfortunately, when they do let him open
the can a little bit, and and he starts to
sling it, so to speak, it goes better for him
in moments, But then he's gonna make a bonehead player
or two.

Speaker 4 (12:45):
But you have to have that blood letting at some point.

Speaker 7 (12:48):
You have to let him make those mistakes so he
doesn't make him anymore.

Speaker 4 (12:52):
And you have to let that happen.

Speaker 7 (12:54):
In games that I don't want to say don't matter,
but in games where you can sharpen your claws a
little bit. When you have a you know, a score
or two lead against Purdue or against Maryland or against
I don't know, Temple or one of these cupcakes you
know that they warmed up with for four weeks before

(13:15):
they took on the Oregon Ducks, you know, let him
sling it so to speak against one of those teams.

Speaker 4 (13:21):
This way, you get used to that Drew Aller.

Speaker 7 (13:24):
He gets used to that Drew Aller because when when
you put look, I've always been a fan of the
of the of the thought process from a coaching standpoint, Hey,
I want to see your one hundred percent effort, and
if I need to pull back on the reins, that's
what I'll do.

Speaker 4 (13:41):
That's coaches job.

Speaker 7 (13:43):
But you go out there and you play to your personality,
and I'll let you know if we need to back
off that personality a little bit. Doesn't it feel like
Drew Aller is trying to be somebody else when he's
on the field. Doesn't it feel like it feels like
he's trying to do his best, you know, impression of
what he thinks the coaches think the Penn State quarterbacks

(14:06):
supposed to look like in this offense instead of playing
like Drew Aller.

Speaker 4 (14:10):
I don't even know who that quarterback is.

Speaker 7 (14:13):
I don't even know who Drew Aller is as a
quarterback yet, because it seems like he's doing a bad
impression of what Penn State expects a quarterbacks supposed to
look like in this offense. If they are going to
win a national championship. It's gonna because they have a
quarterback playing free, playing within his personality and playing like

(14:35):
he knows he's going to win. You heard the way
Drew Bledsoe talk to Tom Brady. He talked to him like, hey, Tom,
I trust you. I want you to trust yourself. Screw
what Bill Belichick said, Screw what Charlie Weiss repeated to
you from the headset. Go out there and play to
your personality and win this you know what football game.

(14:56):
And he went out there and he won that football game.

Speaker 9 (15:00):
Here's the problem, though, he might not be good enough
like like that at this point. We just have to
believe what we see with our eyes, which is he
just might not be talented enough to overcome some of.

Speaker 8 (15:11):
These demons at this stage, I mean may.

Speaker 9 (15:15):
And again, he's a young kid, and I'm sure he's
gonna improve, and you hope that he does. But we
have to trust what we are seeing on the field,
and they are not allowing him to reach that full
potential based off of the play calling, based off of
the cuteness that they're approaching these big games. It's very
it's almost like we're just hoping that we can pop

(15:39):
a couple explosives in the run game and keep this
lead long enough. We are deal and that and to
me and listen, the dural criticism I think is fair.
But he didn't play well. You paid Jim knows a
lot of money and they didn't get one sack in
the game, and they hit Dante more three times like
and may and and maybe it goes back to what
I said at the top, where you credit Oregon for
playing a really clean football game. But man, oh man,

(16:03):
I need to see more. I need to see them
play with a lot more of that unbridled aggression and
you're just not seeing it right now. And maybe they
just don't trust them enough because they're with them every
day in practice. I'm sure there was a point in
practice where they're like, all right, we're gonna roulet.

Speaker 8 (16:17):
A rip right now, and then Drew does whatever he.

Speaker 9 (16:20):
Does and they're like, okay, maybe we can't do that.
Like that obviously isn't going to work. So we need
to go to this secondary game plan, which is run
ron ron cut se QUTESI you know, beat around the
bush and just hope we can kind of skirt our
way through these games. I mean they haven't looked good
in the first three games. Guys like you stack up
the numbers of what Penn State was in those first

(16:42):
three games against the Cupcakes, against the bad FIU and
Villanova didn't cover in any of them. The offense looked
very pedestrian, and that carried over to the Oregon game.
You thought maybe they were kind of playing possum, but no,
they weren't.

Speaker 8 (16:55):
I think this is what they are at this point.

Speaker 9 (16:56):
I think at some point you just have to try
lost what you are seeing on tape, which is Drew
Aller folds in these big moments and the defense is
gonna have to bail him out. And if they're not
running it effectively, they are not going to be able
to win football games at the highest level. So guess
what when you go to Ohio State and I think
three weeks, good luck with that defense?

Speaker 8 (17:16):
Are you kidding me? How many points is Pence stake?
I'll take the under?

Speaker 9 (17:20):
And how many points Bence State scores in that game
in Columbus.

Speaker 5 (17:24):
Well, I think a confidence is a real thing, and
you can see when a player has it, and man,
you can see when a player doesn't. And right now,
Drew Aller has no confidence. And you could take other
players in college in the NFL, look at Baker Mayfield,
look at Baker Mayfield's career, and you could just tell
how confident he is right now compared to other stages

(17:46):
of his career, and it's helping his play tenfold, right.
And that's where I see with with Drew Aller.

Speaker 6 (17:53):
He has real ability.

Speaker 5 (17:54):
There's a reason why he's talked about as being maybe
the number one overall pick now is you know, no shots,
it's dwindling now, but he's still a first round caliber quarterback. Like,
I know, we're down in the dumps with him right
now and deservedly so. But imagine if the Rams got
their hands on Drue Aller. Are we all of a

(18:14):
sudden like man that's a failed draft pick, or are
we like, well, you know, Sean McVay, the guy's got
real ability. Let's not close the door on this guy
having a legitimate pro career, right Like, That's where I'm
at with him, where if he starts to have some success,
have some production, have some wins, have confidence, you could
see a completely different guy.

Speaker 6 (18:35):
And that's what I saw last year with Ohio State.
We all did.

Speaker 5 (18:38):
I'm just looking at these numbers. That embarrassing loss at
home to Michigan. It was thirteen to ten. They gained
two hundred and fifty two yards against Michigan. And then
all of a sudden, it goes back to the Tom
Brady SoundBite. They went out there and they.

Speaker 6 (18:52):
Were slinging it.

Speaker 5 (18:53):
They're just like, all right, screw this, We're going for broke.
And they hung forty two on ten to see forty
one on Oregon. The number one team of the country
outscored Texas beat my Irish. They scored thirty four in
that game. It's just like points points, points point twenty.
It was points galore from that stage where they just
said screw this, the hell with everything, and they went

(19:15):
and they played like that. That's exactly what Penn State
needs to do. But man, they come out and it's
just deer in headlights in these big stage games like that.
But hey, we move forward, and I feel bad for
the Bruins today.

Speaker 8 (19:31):
There that's the part about this.

Speaker 9 (19:32):
You have to bury your opinion and I had to
do it this week, and you just you have to.

Speaker 8 (19:36):
It's a great spot to bet Penn State, it really is.

Speaker 9 (19:39):
And I know we're just We're absolutely, you know, crapping
all over them all morning, but it really.

Speaker 8 (19:43):
Is a good spot to beat them. It is.

Speaker 5 (19:46):
We've got Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 6 (19:51):
I'm Brian No. Register with bet MGM to get.

Speaker 5 (19:53):
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Make it legendary, all right? Coming up next, this team

(20:16):
was outstanding last week, but not so outstanding last year.
In the same spot we'll explain it is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 11 (20:40):
And Rich Fox Sports Radio every day five to seven
pm Eastern. But here's the thing we never have enough
time to get to everything we want to get to.

Speaker 5 (20:48):
And that's why we have a brand new podcast called
over Promised. You see, we're having so much fun in
our two hour show. We never get to everything, honestly,
because this guy is over promising things we never have
I have time for.

Speaker 4 (21:00):
Yeah, you blubber list jam in me.

Speaker 11 (21:02):
Well you know what it's called over promise. You should
be good at it because you've been over promising women
for years.

Speaker 5 (21:06):
Well, it's a Covino and Rich after show and we
want you to be a part of it. We're gonna
be talking sports, of course, but we're also going to
talk life and relationships. And if Rich and I are
arguing about something or we didn't have enough time, it
will continue on our after show called over Promised. Well,
if you don't get enough Covino and Rich, make sure
you check out over Promise and also Uncensored by the way,
so maybe we'll go at it even a little harder.

(21:27):
It's gonna be the best after show podcast of all time.
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bet MGM. All right, we got the number sixteen Vanderbilt
commodores at number ten Alabama. It's funny. I started saying that,

(22:16):
and I'm like, don't forget the nickname. Don't forget Vanderbil
And that was there. You know, like my rule of thumb.
If you can't name the nickname, chances are that program
is trash.

Speaker 9 (22:27):
Right, But hey, that is the number one rule of
college football.

Speaker 5 (22:33):
Peap pretty much, you're right, chances are. You know, they've
experienced some rough times over the years. But Vanderbilt, how
about this five and zero, number sixteen in the country,
and they're getting eleven and a half on the road
against Bama. Now, Bama was unbelievable. In the first half,
in particular against Georgia, they carved them up. Ty Simpson

(22:55):
looked fantastic. They didn't score any points in the second half.
Georgia got closed, but Bama gets the win. They snap
the thirty three game home winning streak for Georgia. Georgia
is now one in seven under Kirby Smart against Alabama,
It's unreal. That's a very emotional win for Alabama. Sometimes

(23:15):
we see these letdown spots. Hard to see a complete
letdown after Vanderbilt beat Alabama. Last year, Alabama was the
number one team in the country. Vandy stunned them. So
that's the one thing in this game. There's no sneaking
up for Vanderbilt. Like normally, if this is a typical
Vanderbilt team and they're like two in three or whatever,

(23:36):
and Alabama's coming off this emotional win, like yeah, look out,
you're getting double digits, maybe Vandy is the side, But
with last year in mind, it's a completely different ballgame here.

Speaker 7 (23:45):
Yeah, Vanderbilt preseason four and a half win total, they've
already bested that on the year. They're four and one
against the spread. So it just goes to show you
that people are counting them out or at least betting
against him. And you can't bet against Diego Pavia, Who's
more than just a good story in college football. He's

(24:06):
like a legitimate quarterback, he really is.

Speaker 4 (24:10):
He's playing well.

Speaker 7 (24:11):
They've got a duo in the offensive backfield who's playing
well with Alexander and Young. They have scored eighteen touchdowns
on the ground so far this season, you know, so
this is a feature of the offense. They got a
good tight end Stowers. Look, this is a real Vanderbilt team.

(24:32):
And I say all that to say, but this is Bama.
And this is Bama who just beat Georgia between the
hedges and all the pomp and circumstance with that matchup.

Speaker 4 (24:44):
To your point, Brian, is it a spot for a letdown?

Speaker 7 (24:47):
Yes, certainly after an emotional victory, and certainly after I
think there were a lot of people maybe within the program,
outside the program certainly, who are talking about Kiln the
and the direction of this program, and what if they
do lose to Georgia, and and and but but but

(25:08):
they end up winning that game, and it feels like
a completely different season now after opening the season with
a loss to Florida state where they were big favorites.

Speaker 4 (25:16):
So that's kind of the tail of the tape between
these two teams.

Speaker 7 (25:21):
The Commodores look good all over the paper, right, you know,
you can't really find too much negative to say about
the start to their season, But the level of opponent
they're about to play against today, it suggests to you
that this could be a lopsided outcome.

Speaker 4 (25:38):
Mm. Yeah.

Speaker 9 (25:39):
The Vandy's getting a lot of love in the market.
They're very popular underdog this week. That usually is your
first red flag that you probably shouldn't be betting on
a team. Call them right, the trendy dog. Those dogs
typically have flees. Based on my experience in this gambling space,
Bama's just a check mark across the board in all
the areas you want them to be checked in.

Speaker 8 (26:00):
How about this stat, guys.

Speaker 9 (26:01):
One of three teams in the country that hasn't turned
it over this year. I bet you can't name the
other two. I struggled with this one.

Speaker 8 (26:07):
Go ahead and guess.

Speaker 7 (26:09):
The other two besides Bama Bama that hasn't turned it
over this year.

Speaker 9 (26:13):
You're never gonna give you a you know, Yan and Temple.

Speaker 8 (26:17):
How about that.

Speaker 9 (26:20):
Never never guess that, but that was a big talking
point in the offseason with Ryan Grubb, and that's why
they love Ty Simpson. He is incredibly efficient and protective
of the football. Last year in this game they lost
the turnover march in two to oh So again that's
kind of the key here and tough to predict turnovers.

(26:40):
But obviously Bama has done a really good job keeping
hold of the football this year. This ain't your older
brothers bandy offense people, It's not. They hunt explosives now.
In prior years they've been a little bit more quarterback
power four or five yards in a cloud of dust
type of offense. They still do that. That's their critic.
DNA third and short pave is going to be on

(27:03):
a QB power on a jet suite probably in some capacity.
But now what they've added to their game is the
explosive ability, which makes this a very different offense to
prepare for. I think their biggest concern for Bama right
now is the defense. Honestly, Georgia left a lot of
meat on the bone I told you about. They only
gained about fifty percent of available yards. That's below average.

(27:26):
Georgia could have scored a lot more points in that
game last week. You had the fourth down stop, you
had a couple explosives that they missed. And oh, by
the way, James Smith nose tackle for Bama out in
this game ejected for targeting in the second half, so
we will miss the first half.

Speaker 8 (27:40):
Of this game.

Speaker 9 (27:41):
In addition, Kway Russo, we talked about him on last
week's show, one of the best pass rushers I think
in the country. Definitely on this Bama team. Injured his foot,
need surgery out indefinitely. It feels like Bama's defense is
kind of this weird sphere that keeps spinning and you
just don't know what axis it's on. They have a
very complicated zone scheme. Here's the problem I see when

(28:04):
you play a zone coverage scheme against Vandy, they spam
the RPO game and they will eventually get you out
of that zone scheme. And when they do and get
you in the man to man, that's when the explosives
come in. So it's weird we're talking about this game
like Vandy's on the front foot. I think Bama is
the better team. I think the offense is significantly better
than Bandy's defense. I think Ty Simpson's got a big
chance to win the Heisman Trophy this year. I love

(28:26):
the receivers for Bama. Hort and Bernard and Williams are elite.
I think Bama's gonna put up their points. But I
think Vandy's gonna be in this game. I would imagine,
I would imagine Bama covers because everyone's betting Vandy and
that's usually how it goes. But I would not be
shocked if the Commodores are sniffing this one late.

Speaker 5 (28:45):
One thing that goes against Vandy that I don't like
in this particular matchup. They've given up the most passing
touchdowns in the SEC. They've given up nine passing touchdowns already.
And Rich, you're talking about the competition, right, It's not
the stiffest of competition over there in the land, right.
It is a huge step up to face Ty Simpson

(29:07):
in the Crimson Tide. Yeah, because Charleston Southern VA Tech
South Carolina without Leonoris Sellers for most of that game
and Georgia State.

Speaker 6 (29:17):
That's not Ty Simpson and Bama, that's for sure.

Speaker 5 (29:20):
But the one thing though, on the other side, and
that's why this is an intriguing matchup, is Kaylin de
Boor as a double digit favorite. Yikes. It's not quite
James Franklin against top ten teams, but it's approaching it.
As a double digit favorite. They have laid numerous eggs
and lost outright, including one game last year to Vanderbilt.

(29:41):
And so you have to see when we were talking
about Bama, like, is Bama back? Like, think about what
the standard for Bama is. And they've looked good the
last couple of weeks. Ever since the Florida State debacle,
Bama has been good, and especially in that first half
against Georgia last week. But beat like back back, that

(30:02):
is such a high bar, and I think there's a
lot of room for Kaylin de Boor to improve, for
them to get close to that level where they once were.

Speaker 7 (30:11):
Yeah, classic letdown spot tier point Brian, And we've seen
this before, and we've seen this before after a big
emotional win against Georgia, because that's exactly the spot they
face Vandy last year right after a big win against Georgia,
they had the letdown against Vanderbilt.

Speaker 4 (30:28):
So this sets up similarly.

Speaker 7 (30:29):
However, when you do have that to look back on
in such recent history, you would assume a good coach
like Kaylen Debor is gonna be talking to his team,
turning on that film and saying, hey, this is I mean,
we just cannot let history repeat itself.

Speaker 4 (30:47):
Right.

Speaker 7 (30:48):
Here's the problem with BEMA when you say are they
all the way back? Defensively, definitely not? And run game wise, yeah,
definitely not. Their top rusher Kevin Riley has one hundred
fIF the yards. Jam Miller's been banged up. This run
game is not what Bama not what Crimson Tide fans
are used to seeing. What are you used to seeing

(31:09):
out of Alabama? Strong run game, great defense, a star
studded defense at all three levels, and a quarterback who's
good enough to manage the offense. This is a complete reversal.
This is a defense that's good enough to keep you
in games. They will allow points in scoring, There's no

(31:30):
question about it. So you're gonna have to score points
and an offense that relies on quarterback play and talented receivers.
You have two really good standout receivers, but you have
two running backs who have been trying their hardest to
get this run game going and to no avail. So
very different complexion, as the DNA is shifting from the

(31:52):
Saban years to the Kaitlin de Boor years in Alabama.

Speaker 8 (31:57):
Very well said.

Speaker 9 (32:00):
Literally exactly my notes here go Alabama this year outside
the top one hundred third down defense points, pro opportunity allowed,
and explosiveness.

Speaker 8 (32:07):
Kane Wamack wants the quarterback to not trust his eyes.

Speaker 9 (32:10):
This creates impact plays, but they also are very creacible
in the run game. Georgia had five explosive runs in
the game last Saturday. Diego pave Again we mentioned he's
an RPO merchant that will force Alabama to shift their scheme.
He's very experienced, will not be rattled on the road.

Speaker 8 (32:29):
This will be his forty sixth.

Speaker 9 (32:30):
College start today nineteenth at Vandy. Again, this is a
very different Vandy offense than we're used to. And then
on the flip side of that, Rich, I.

Speaker 8 (32:40):
Love this ty Simpson kid.

Speaker 9 (32:42):
Big step forward last week, winning a big game on
the road in the sec right, Mike the first line
of my notes on him this week. That's one of
those starts that earns you a helmet sticker. I mean
it was shredding the ball into tight windows. Sunday throws
on money downs, go look at the third down numbers
for Alabama last week they were off the charts, their

(33:04):
top fifteen in available yards, gaining sixty three percent of
available yards.

Speaker 8 (33:08):
That is an elite, elite rate.

Speaker 9 (33:10):
The thing I'm most impressed with Simpson right now his
ability to identify what he's seeing at the line of
scrimmage and decisively exploiting the weakness of the defense. If
he can do it on the road at Georgia, he
can do it against anybody, period, end of story. The
ball was jumping out of his hands last week, two
point seven time to throw rate with a nine point

(33:30):
zero a dot. What does that mean? Quick out of
his hand, but significantly strong average depth of target.

Speaker 8 (33:38):
Not just check down, Charlie.

Speaker 9 (33:39):
Usually when we see a two and a half two
point six second time per throw rate, the average depth
of target's like six yards because it's just one, two,
three boom balls out, but it's quick. He was one
to three boom balls out, boom into a tight window
ten yards down the field like it was really impressive.
And again the receivers for Bama, this is a very
explosive group.

Speaker 8 (33:58):
They have three.

Speaker 9 (33:58):
Guys that can all do different things. Jeremy Bernard's a
stud six foot two transfer. Right, they brought him over
from Washington. He was one of the guys that the
board brought. They line him up all over the field.
He'll line up in the backfield today and he'll run
a route on the outside.

Speaker 8 (34:12):
They've got the alpha, Isaiah.

Speaker 9 (34:14):
Horton six foot four x receiver and Ryan Williams, why
I think, is the best slot guy in the country.
So there's no weakness on this Bama offense. You want
to say, maybe they're a little gett a bullet tackle
I can I can run with that, But I think
the running game is going to improve too. And this
is a this is a runnable defense, right, Vandy's got
good numbers against the run, but it's against Charleston Southern,

(34:35):
VOTEC South Carolina without Lenora Sellers for most of the game,
Georgia State, and Utah State. They've also had a big
lead in every game, so nobody's running it on them.
I'm curious to see how they handle a quarterback receiver
trio with a guy like Jan Miller, who you would
hope is a weak healthier.

Speaker 8 (34:52):
So this is a this is a test for Vandy today.

Speaker 9 (34:55):
A lot of people think Vandy is up to this
challenge based on what the betting market's telling me.

Speaker 8 (34:59):
I am not social.

Speaker 6 (35:01):
Yeah, that's the funny thing. I'll bring it back to Bama.

Speaker 5 (35:03):
But just in terms of quarterbacks, real fast, like playing
with confidence. What we were talking about with Drew Aller before.
Look at Ty Simpson. Look at Ty Simpson last week
against Georgia compared to the first game against Florida State,
night and day. Not even close to the same guy.
But he's playing confidently and that makes all the difference
in the world. You could go back just a couple

(35:24):
of nights ago. Think about Mac Jones now with the
forty nine ers, is the backup quarterback.

Speaker 6 (35:29):
You see him getting into his bag.

Speaker 4 (35:31):
You see him do the.

Speaker 5 (35:32):
Little shoulder struggle thing like that's like, where's the Mac.
We haven't seen this with the Jags or the Patriots.
All of a sudden, he's a confident player and he
looks completely different. So if you're a Penn State fan,
you got to see that from Drew Aller because he
has real ability. But you bring it back, bring it
back to Listen, we're talking about confident quarterbacks.

Speaker 6 (35:51):
Make sure bring it back to Alabama.

Speaker 5 (35:53):
Return Hey, at least the path for an upset or
at least the cover is a shaky iffy Bama defense,
right and that's what they are right now. They are
not what they used to be. They can be had,
and they have been had during this season. Diego Pavia,
if he starts to make plays and he's completely capable

(36:17):
of doing that, that electrifies the whole team. All of
a sudden, Vanderbilt is playing with confidence. So if you're Vandy,
you gotta see Diego Pavia make a good amount of plays.
So all of a sudden that that confidence just infiltrates
the whole squad.

Speaker 4 (36:31):
You know.

Speaker 5 (36:31):
It's almost like a basketball team, like the the Fi
Slama Jama days where they have a dunk and all
of a sudden, the team is juiced. When Pavia is
making plays, it really gives them so much juice. So
we'll see he's gonna make some but can he make
enough to keep him close and for that belief to
really grow, because listen, Vandy's gonna give up some yards

(36:53):
and some points in the passing game. They've already given
up nine touchdowns already. Ty Simpson's gonna do his thing,
you know, because he's playing confident football right now. I
just don't see him reverting to the game one. You know,
Florida State, Ty Simpson that it's like a Benzel that
day is dead dog. We don't roll like that no more.
That's not how Ty Simpson rolls anymore. Now, right, that's

(37:14):
where we're at. All Right, We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State,
All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian no
Coming up next the parlay platter, which have one selection
for you. We pull it together for a greater payout.
We'll compare notes next. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios

(37:34):
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(37:56):
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let's do this.

Speaker 3 (38:08):
Check this out, ar lad letter.

Speaker 5 (38:11):
Yes, the platter, we each have one selection for you.
We pull it together for a greater payout. Jared, we
start with you. What's something you like?

Speaker 9 (38:19):
So I am in love infatuation with the over in
this Bandy Bama game today. I'll just tell you right now,
I'm gonna give it to you and rapid fire at
the current total of fifty six and a half. But
we're gonna take it one step further in the platter
because we want to get these ads nice and gc.

Speaker 8 (38:36):
So what are we gonna do. We're gonna sell two points.
What do I mean by that?

Speaker 9 (38:40):
You go to your bet MGM tab and you go
to the total section of this Bandy Bama game and
you could basically remove some value, right, we could increase
the total, so it's fifty six and a half, but
we're gonna give you over fifty eight and a half
to get this number to plus one oh five.

Speaker 8 (38:57):
We talked about it in the last segment. It is
a very impressive Vandy offense this year.

Speaker 9 (39:02):
They are typically a run, run, run, run, run team
this year, they are hunting explosives.

Speaker 8 (39:07):
And their quarterback I'm gonna call him the Rudy of
the SEC.

Speaker 9 (39:10):
He's five foot nothing, one hundred and nothing, diego Pavia.
But this kid plays the quarterback position without an ounce
of fear. And that is why I think Vandy, who's
gonna be going for broke today? They Hey, they think
they can win the SEC. They're five and oh they
win this game. They're right in the mix. And I
obviously think Alabama's offense with Ty Simpson, who's Heisman.

Speaker 8 (39:30):
Candidate, is going to be slinging at all day long.
So give me the over with a twist.

Speaker 9 (39:37):
We're selling two points over fifty eight and a half
Vandy and Fama today at plus one oh five to
start the Parland All.

Speaker 4 (39:43):
Right, juicing up though over there.

Speaker 7 (39:44):
I love it, Jared, Okay, I'm going with Penn State
minus twenty four and a half on the Rose at
the Rose Bowl against their Big ten competitor UCLA. The Bruins, look,
they've been awful this season.

Speaker 4 (39:58):
Penn State.

Speaker 7 (40:00):
It's an emotional pressure release valve, let's call it. And
that's exactly the way this game sets up Yeah, this
is a huge number to cover. James Franklin likes to
cover huge numbers for his donors and his boosters. He
pays attention to the betting lines.

Speaker 4 (40:17):
You can see it. You see it in the fourth quarter,
you see it.

Speaker 7 (40:20):
Late in games where they're close, and he makes sure
bets are hitting.

Speaker 4 (40:26):
So I like this ticket. I think it was.

Speaker 7 (40:29):
An unfortunate outcome against the Ducks. I think they make
up for it in spades today against the Bruins. Give
me Penn State and Drew all are having a big game,
by the way, that may pop up later in the show.
But Penn State covering twenty four and a half on.

Speaker 5 (40:44):
The road, all right, I'm going with this Texas Florida game.

Speaker 6 (40:49):
Give me under forty two and a half.

Speaker 5 (40:51):
I mean, Rich, we got lag Weight earlier this year
in the LSU game, five interceptions, including a pick six
at a TWA ball game. This is a real Texas defense.
They've got NFL dudes on this defense. And I'm not
expecting Dj Lagway, who's struggling with his confidence, to all
of a sudden flourish in this game. And arch Manning Listen,

(41:13):
I know it's doom and gloom with arch I'd say
give it a little bit of time. But this is
a real Florida defense as well. I think forty two
and a half it's a little bit too much. How
many points is Florida scoring? Ten thirteen? We're not coming
close to this total?

Speaker 8 (41:28):
Going over?

Speaker 4 (41:28):
If that's the case, I.

Speaker 8 (41:30):
Love this parlay plus six forty seven. It's hitting today, guys,
bet it we.

Speaker 3 (41:34):
Go like it all right?

Speaker 5 (41:35):
Coming up next, this team is a live dog thanks
to its defense, but man, the offense is rough. Oh,
good morning, happy Saturday to you. We are two hours
away from kickoff here on a lovely college football weekend.

Speaker 6 (41:51):
Beautiful thing. All right, Come up next?

Speaker 4 (41:53):
Is it?

Speaker 5 (41:55):
Is it a live dog or a dog with fleas
that comes your way in just a few seconds. Throughout
the entire football season, bet MGM will offer all different
types of no sweat tokens and odds boost tokens. Be
on the lookout for no sweat same game parlay tokens,
parlay boost tokens, and so much more. All right, we've
got number nine Texas at unranked Florida.

Speaker 6 (42:16):
Man Florida.

Speaker 5 (42:17):
They start off looking good, you know, preseason ranked and
all that. They are no longer ranked. They've been bad.

Speaker 8 (42:24):
How bad?

Speaker 5 (42:25):
They have scored thirty three points in three games against
FBS opponents. Thirty three points in three separate games. Like
that's you see a lot of these FBS teams. They'll
score thirty three in one game against the good FBS opponent.
They've done that over three games. So this Florida offense

(42:46):
is a wreck. And going up against Texas's defense, You've
got dudes all over the place, You've got legitimate NFL talent.

Speaker 6 (42:54):
I just don't know how much Florida is scoring in
this game.

Speaker 5 (42:57):
I know there are a lot of people that are like, oh,
home dog. You know, if you can get it plus seven,
get it plus seven. Well, the sevens are long gone.
And I just don't know how much Florida is scoring
in this spot. I know we're down on arch Manning,
but listen, man compared to DJ Lagway right now, Arch
Manning is the second coming of Jesus Christ. That's how

(43:17):
bad DJ Lagway?

Speaker 7 (43:21):
Goodness gracious, yeah, I mean, look, after six turnovers he
was responsible for against LSU, you like the fact that
against the Canes he didn't post a single pass that
was turnover worthy. However, you can tell that they've gotten
a little trigger shy of Florida. In the passing game,

(43:42):
the Gators posted get this, a twenty one percent success
rate in passing downs and only two point seven yards
per play against Miami's defense.

Speaker 4 (43:54):
They have completely lost faith in the passing game, and
understandably so.

Speaker 7 (43:59):
You you gotta circle the wagons when you have a
season that is flailing the way it is, and.

Speaker 4 (44:05):
You gotta look at the head coach.

Speaker 7 (44:07):
Billy Napier sits atop the hottest seat in college football
right now. If they lose this football game, which I mean,
if you're looking at the spot, you probably feel like
they will, and then you question yourself. Okay, let me
take a look at it again. You know, desperation is

(44:28):
a hell of an incentivisor at times you know, is
this a spot where because you know the curtains about
to fall, something crazy happens. You know I would stay
off this game personally. This is a tough one for me.
I mean, maybe like you did, Brian in our parlay there,

(44:51):
the unders are very alive. I don't love how Texas
has played against real competition. I think they've they've seemed
sluggish against Sam Houston. I mean that was a woodshed
game for arch Manning in this offense. He finally looked
like he played with the composure and the confidence that
he was supposed to play with in the opener against
Ohio State and has yet to really come fully to

(45:13):
fruition so far this season. So maybe there's some more
confidence there in the offense coming into this one. But
I really do feel like if you're gonna bet this game,
the totals and probably the unders, maybe even first quarter
or first half unders too, not just the whole game spread.

Speaker 9 (45:30):
Yeah, here's what I watch, or here's what I see
when I watch arch Manning. I see a quarterback that's
still very jittery with his feet. And again I'm not
this quarterback expert, but from all of my understanding of
what I've been taught and what I've teaching kids, it
starts from the feet up. Like you are a quarterback,

(45:51):
your arm is not the most important part of your
quarterbacking skills. It is the feet and the mind. In
my opinion, those are the two things that really dictate
how well you play the position. He's overstriding, his misses
are low and away. He's struggling controlling the nose of
the football. It's pointed down when he's missing, and that

(46:12):
tells me it's mechanics. And that's surprising, right because when
we think of a Manning, the kid was basically born
with a football in his hand, So mechanics was not
something I would expect to be off. When I'm watching
Arch Manning play football, that tells me that there's something
off mentally, he's not fully trusting his mechanics.

Speaker 8 (46:32):
That he's been taught years and years and years of this.

Speaker 9 (46:35):
Now, he did have moments when he's been mechanically clean,
Like if you go back and watch the Sam Houston
game from a couple weeks ago, he.

Speaker 8 (46:43):
Got hit early in the game.

Speaker 9 (46:44):
He took a big shot in the pocket, and from
that point on he looked much cleaner.

Speaker 8 (46:48):
It was almost like it woke him up a little bit.

Speaker 9 (46:50):
He looked a lot more comfortable in that game on
boots play action rollouts when you're kind of outside the pocket.
That's a good way to mitigate some of those mechanical
flaws when you get a quarterback like him that's on
the move. But again, after he took that hit, he
looked much better, and then he had the rushing touchdown
right when he or a farm The kid that that one,
that play was all over social media. To me, if
I was coaching at Sarks, a much better coach than me,

(47:13):
significantly better offensive mind. I'm not trying to tell him
how to do his job, but I would get Arch
involved in the run game very early here.

Speaker 8 (47:21):
To me, that.

Speaker 9 (47:22):
Usually settles down a quarterback that's a little bit jittery,
take a hit, get a little bit dirty, dust yourself off,
and then go play football. I mean, we have to,
you know. Also, remember he hasn't even played a full
he hasn't been a starter in a full season of
college football. Yet he's still a very young, inexperienced quarterback
at the collegiate level. I think his spatial awareness will improve.

(47:46):
Sarks offense gives you a lot of free access throws.
That's kind of the way he runs things that gets
you comfortable in the game early. Just hit your layups.
If you hit your layups, you're gonna have success in
this offense. He's a big kid, six four two twenty.
Use your legs, use your athleticism. Change the manipulation like
manipulate the launch point. Don't just stand in the pocket

(48:07):
and make throws. And I think he's going to continue
to have some success.

Speaker 5 (48:11):
Yeah, listen, I buy what you're selling as far as
the mechanics go.

Speaker 6 (48:14):
And it does make me think of.

Speaker 5 (48:16):
Josh Allen, the Bills quarterback, and they were doing was
it they were on Hard Knocks?

Speaker 6 (48:22):
Is that the show of the offseason they were on.
I think they were on Hard Knocks.

Speaker 5 (48:25):
But one of the episodes they showed him with Chris
hess Who's this you know quarterback mechanic guy, right, He's
all he's got this state of the art technology. It's
you know, measuring this and measuring that. You're overstriding and
you're not clearing your hips and all that type of stuff.
Josh Allen's throwing motion is galaxy. Is better than it

(48:48):
was his first two years. And he was an inaccurate
passer his first two years in the NFL. But all
of a sudden, his mechanics are sound like it's all
about his hips. Like you remember how Dak Remember how
you do that weird warm up thing where he's moving
his hips all around right like that. That's a big
part of the throwing motion is clearing your hips. And
no longer is Josh Allen just throwing with his entire arm.

(49:11):
He was an arm thrower. Now he's like a body thrower.
He's doing it with his hips. And if arch Manning
can get there, look out like we all want our
quarterbacks to be microwaveable.

Speaker 6 (49:22):
You know what I mean.

Speaker 5 (49:23):
It's gonna take a little bit of time. All Right,
this is a steak. You gotta let it like simmer
for a while, you know, you gotta let like everything marinate.
It's gonna take time. It's a process. But these people
that want instant results, like man, what were the three
hundred passing yards against Ohio State?

Speaker 4 (49:40):
Arch Manning?

Speaker 5 (49:41):
And it's like, bro, like, take take a breath and
settle down for a bit. I think he's going to
get there. But what you're explaining, Jared, if he does
get there like Josh Allen did mechanically, whoa. I think
that this guy can be unbelievable.

Speaker 4 (49:57):
I really do.

Speaker 3 (49:58):
Well.

Speaker 6 (49:59):
As far as Texas defense, Rich, listen to this again.
We got lagway earlier.

Speaker 4 (50:04):
Rich.

Speaker 5 (50:05):
Right, you're going up against the Texas defense that's allowing
seven point eight points per game, that's second best nationally,
and Texas they give up two hundred and twelve yards
per game. That's fourth best. That's what Florida's sputtering anemic
offenses up against tonight.

Speaker 7 (50:23):
Yeah yeah, you said it all right there. Defensive coordinator
Pete Kwakowski in this three three five scheme has really
done a nice job, especially against the run, stopping explosives.
And so when when you can't really get things going
in the run game, it forces the offenses that you
oppose to run more plays. And what does that expose

(50:47):
an offense too well, especially if you're trailing, it exposes
you to having to put the ball in the air,
and that gives you more opportunities to turn it over.
And and this de defense has done a nice job
in that category as well. It's been the biggest positive
really of the Longhorn season so far. And in terms

(51:08):
of just looking at success rate, which is you know,
obviously a quotient that includes a couple of other different factors,
they're fifteenth in the country.

Speaker 4 (51:18):
I mean, this is a Texas defense.

Speaker 7 (51:20):
Everybody was talking about arch Manning and the offense, and
for obvious reasons. You know, so many of the prop
bets come in on the offensive side of the ball.
In college football, we know where you know, a fans
Brett is buttered, so to speak. And so we talked
a lot of Arch Manning leading up to this season,
but the reality is defense still wins championships. You know,

(51:41):
the uglies up front, the defensive coordinators with you know,
the mad scientists behind the scenes. Those are the guys
who rarely get as much credit as they deserve for
a successful season. And if Texas has a successful season,
which they still can have a March Manning goes through

(52:02):
this maturation process and we see the cake being baked
instead of being microwaved like everybody wants.

Speaker 4 (52:08):
The instant results. Yeah, I think it's going to.

Speaker 7 (52:12):
Be predicated around a strong defense bolstering the early part
of this season.

Speaker 4 (52:17):
And then watch out if this offense starts clicking.

Speaker 7 (52:20):
If we see more of what Manning did against Sam Houston,
against better FBS talent, this.

Speaker 4 (52:27):
Could be a special season for the Longhorns.

Speaker 7 (52:29):
But right now, DJ Lagway and this Florida team, they've
gotten uphill climb against a defense that's been stingy with
yardage on the ground, and that's a problem because Florida's
been terrible throwing the ball.

Speaker 9 (52:43):
Yeah, I'll be honest, I would not be shocked if
Florida won this game.

Speaker 8 (52:48):
I wouldn't not at all.

Speaker 9 (52:50):
It feels like that this is the game, especially based
on the market. I mean, it's under a touchdown right now,
and we've seen it move towards Florida just based off
of the way this crazy college football season is gone.
It would not shock me in the slightest if everyone
riding off Billy n Apier, everyone.

Speaker 8 (53:11):
Thinking this is the end. They're playing the.

Speaker 9 (53:14):
Violin right, the Titanic is sinking, and then they beat
Texas in Arch.

Speaker 8 (53:21):
Many wouldn't shock me at all. Here's how they can
win the game.

Speaker 9 (53:25):
Run the ball. Jane Bows averaging six yards per carry.
He had ten carries against LSU, he had twelve against Miami.
Make that make sense. Your quarterback is lagwaying everyone left
and right. Your running game is actually pretty prolific, and
you're only giving your guy averaging six yards to carry
twenty two combined totes in your two biggest games Miami

(53:48):
and LSU.

Speaker 8 (53:49):
Doesn't make sense.

Speaker 9 (53:50):
Florida's won for nineteen on third downs of nine plus
this year. I mean, that's bad, but it also tells
me that they're not getting into a lot of third
and manageables. They have nineteen third downs this year that
are of nine yards or more. They've only been able
to convert one of them. Texas, though, also struggles on
third downs. They struggle in getting off the field. There

(54:14):
are one hundred and twenty sixth then penalties. The swamp
does not make you more disciplined. The Gators are playing
inspired football right now in defense. I don't know why,
because again, their coaches kind of a zombie, but it
does seem like both teams off the by maybe lagway
gets a little healthy. Like I'm not saying I'm not

(54:37):
gonna go out on a limb and say Florida is
gonna win this game, because I don't want to.

Speaker 8 (54:41):
I don't want to smoke from all the Texas fans.

Speaker 9 (54:43):
But I do believe there is a path here. Low
total game, short spread, run the ball, rattle arch on
the road a little bit. That's the recipe I think
for an upset.

Speaker 6 (54:59):
Hey man, I hear you.

Speaker 5 (55:01):
There's certainly a path toward that happening, but there's a
path for the opposite of happening, right Yeah. That's what
I love about That's what I love about sports betting
is right now to this point, like arch Manning has
had a lot of struggles. The case that you know, uh,

(55:22):
you know, the lawyer Jared Smith over there just made
can be the you know, the outcome today can absolutely
be the outcome.

Speaker 6 (55:30):
But if it is not, you're sitting there.

Speaker 5 (55:33):
Going why the hell did I back Lagway and Napier
when they're one in three against a really talented Texas squad,
you know what I mean? Like it could go that
way too, So I love that dynamic as well. Like
I think this is uh, this is a good This

(55:53):
is a good recipe for you know, a head slap
where you're just like slapping your forehead, Like what was
I even thinking before this game kicked off? You know,
it has that potential either way, no matter what bet
you're on, for it to go really bad.

Speaker 7 (56:09):
That's why I think in games like this, I agree
with everything you just said, Jared, all the reasons why
Texas could get tripped up here and desperation. As I
mentioned earlier, it is a really tricky ingredient to add
to the whole recipe. When when you have a coach
who is literally coaching for his job, that can change

(56:31):
the paradigm and it can really open up the playbook,
and you could see things where maybe in a season's plan,
you're not gonna tip your hand too far. You're gonna
set things up for later in the year. You're gonna
use certain packages and gotta have it moments when you
get deep into your conference schedule, when when you're coaching

(56:52):
for your life, you empty out every single bullet you
got chambered sometimes and you go down swinging, so to speak. Proverbially,
I think that's a tricky ingredient to add to the recipe.
So when I look at this game, I look at
the total, and I try to think about thematically how

(57:12):
I see this game going. And I could see this
being a grueling win or potentially a grueling loss for
Texas on the road, But I do not see it
being a high scoring affair. So when I have a
hard time feeling the spread right, really, like you said,
it's kind of an artificially low number, especially considering how

(57:34):
poor Florida has played this season so far, and you're
curious as to why that number is the number. Ignore
that number, look at the other one, look at the
bigger number, look at the total, and say to yourself.

Speaker 4 (57:45):
Do I really see these two teams.

Speaker 7 (57:47):
Mustering enough offense to surpass that total, and my stomach,
my gut is telling me no way. And especially in
the opening rounds of this fight, I could see these
two fighters circling each other for a little bit. I
could see everybody trying to find their moments of opportunity,
and so I like Brian's under for the game. But

(58:10):
I even like the first half under. I think it's
twenty one and a half right now. That might come
up later. That might be one of my rapid fires.
I'm still mulling it. That's an interesting game though, Man
Texas that they could use an arch man in coming
out party Lagway and this Florida offense, and especially Billy Napier,

(58:31):
the head coach needs a win in the worst way
like blood. So this is gonna be an interesting watch today.

Speaker 8 (58:39):
What Rich just said is fantastic gambling advice.

Speaker 9 (58:43):
And I know we give a lot of betting advice
on who to bet on on the show.

Speaker 8 (58:48):
I wouldn't consider this show like.

Speaker 9 (58:50):
A gambling in the weeds all the time type of show.
But what Rich just said is incredible gambling advice for
the macro big picture.

Speaker 8 (59:00):
You are uncertain on a game.

Speaker 9 (59:01):
You're looking at this Texas Florida spread and you're like,
it's five and a half. I could see Texas, you know,
winning ten to three. I could see Texas winning thirteen
to three. Look at the total and see what the
market thinks the vibe of this game is going to be. Yeah,
forty two is a very low.

Speaker 8 (59:19):
Total in a college football game.

Speaker 9 (59:22):
So if that is what we expect the vibe to be,
reassess your opinion on the spread based on what the
projected total is. Right, high scoring game probably favors Texas covering,
probably right, arch Manning gets going, DJ Lagway's throwing bullets.

(59:42):
The over probably correlates a little bit more to Texas
here in my opinion. Now usually its favorite and underdog
and over. But I think in this particular instance, based
off of the very low total and what we've seen
from Florida, it kind of gives me the vibe that
Florida wants to play a thirteen to ten game.

Speaker 8 (01:00:00):
That's the game they want to play.

Speaker 9 (01:00:02):
That's the way their defense is played, that's how their
running game is played.

Speaker 8 (01:00:06):
So now that you can look at the total.

Speaker 9 (01:00:08):
And say, wow, forty two is really low, reassess your
opinion on who wins based off of that total. I
think that is always a great way to also gauge props.
We'll talk about it a little bit, you know later
and prop it up. I reassess my vibe on a
prop based off of what the game total is. So
use what information the market and the sportsbooks are giving

(01:00:30):
you to reformat your opinion on a game.

Speaker 8 (01:00:34):
Really good macro advice Rich just gave and you can
apply to this Texas Farida game.

Speaker 5 (01:00:39):
By the way, last little tiny nugget. Texas, they rank
number fifteen in the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage.
They're also twelfth in third down offense. Right, so you're
relating at the under. It's like, once they're in the
red zone, they're not scoring touchdowns, No, it's third down.
They're having hard time picking up first downs, they're having

(01:00:59):
a hard time moving the chains. And these defenses are
both good. So yeah, under seems to make a lot
of sense in this one. All right, We've got Rich Orenberger,
Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 4 (01:01:11):
I'm Brian no.

Speaker 5 (01:01:12):
Register with BETMGM to get instant access to the best
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(01:01:34):
up next, our main man, Seamus McGee drops on by
from BETMGM gets you all set for a full slate
of college games and maybe some that aren't even you're
not even aware or on the slate. It might be
a part of his shame as special we'll find out.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.

(01:02:00):
We got to add the kickoff now right. We're in
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(01:02:22):
let's do this.

Speaker 3 (01:02:24):
Follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 5 (01:02:27):
All right, Well, welcome in our good friend, Seamus McGee,
team lead of sports trading at bet MGM. Good morning, Seamus.
So I first off, maybe you can help me out.
I know your Virginia Cavaliers.

Speaker 6 (01:02:40):
You love them.

Speaker 5 (01:02:40):
You were storming the field, you were knocking, you were
bowling over poor Florida State players last week.

Speaker 4 (01:02:45):
You know.

Speaker 5 (01:02:46):
And I see this number next to their name. I
see a two four. I don't know if you can
you enlighten me what that even means?

Speaker 1 (01:02:58):
Three words? Get used to it. Yes, this is a
top twenty five football team, fellas, get used to it.
Big game room for a wet down spot here. They
gotta go.

Speaker 9 (01:03:15):
A top twenty five team that is a dog against
Louisville today.

Speaker 4 (01:03:19):
How do we is that?

Speaker 8 (01:03:21):
Telling you a touchdown dog at Louisville today? Is that
a track line? Everyone's on Virginia right in all?

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
I think Louisville is a pretty underrated team. I don't
think it looks great against JAMU at the start of
the other they still ended up winning by fourteen. I
think melar Man's is a really good quarterback. I think
Louisville's a little slept on around the country, but we're
still seeing some handle trickle in on this game. It
is pretty balanced so far. A little bit more action
on Louisville though, But the Sharks did like Virginia early

(01:03:50):
in the week. When this is touching seven.

Speaker 7 (01:03:53):
You know, we're just talking about this Florida Texas game. Uh,
it feels like Florida knee to win like blood because
of the situation. Billy Napiers in low spread Texas favored,
but not by much, not up to a touchdown.

Speaker 4 (01:04:10):
What's your feel on this game?

Speaker 7 (01:04:12):
Arch Manning hasn't looked like the next prodigal Sun at
quarterback that we were expecting against Ohio State and the opener.

Speaker 4 (01:04:21):
How do you see this one going?

Speaker 1 (01:04:23):
Some of our friends like to say people are betting
this game with yesterday's paper. He seems like, I mean,
this line opened seven. We're down to four and a
half now and it is pros versus Joe. The public
is all over Texas, it doesn't matter the number, but
the Sharks just keep driving this number down. So the

(01:04:44):
book is on the same side as some of the
sharper betters here we're going to be rooting for Florida,
and Florida outright would also be amazing for the book.

Speaker 9 (01:04:52):
Yeah, that's a scary one, sorry, Brian.

Speaker 5 (01:04:55):
How about ranked versus ranked here Seamus right, the two
big ones and at Bama, Miami at Florida State, anything
you like in those games, side or total.

Speaker 1 (01:05:07):
The Vama game is interesting here. We've seen a lot
of Alabama money come in. I mean, bus of the
Vanderbilt money was coming in at you know, eleven and
a half. But I think the under is going to
be mostly the need in that Vanderbilt game, and so
far on Miami versus Florida State, I mean, it's a
weird spot for Florida State. They're going to come back

(01:05:28):
and get ready because this is a really good Miami team.
But the money's pretty you know, bound fifty to fifty
on this spread right now.

Speaker 9 (01:05:36):
Another one that's kind of peaking my interest in terms
of the trap potential. Iowa State a dog against Cincinnati,
right and you see this is one of those games
where right right, we talked about this in college basketball
a lot where like the unranked home favorite. I don't
really know much about Cincinnati this year. I haven't loved

(01:05:57):
what I seen. They stubbed their toe and Iowa States again.

Speaker 8 (01:06:02):
This Big twelve is wide open.

Speaker 9 (01:06:03):
Either of these teams I think can win it with
the numbers telling me Cincinnati is the right side right.

Speaker 1 (01:06:08):
Only one name you gotta know on Cincinnati Brendan Soresby.
He's been one of the best quarterbacks in the country
this year. And yeah, this is that classic spot where
the ranked team goes to the unranked team and they're
a dog and everyone knows about it now because we're
going to be Iowa State here. But it is definitely
a weird line. Another name you should know on Cincinnati's

(01:06:30):
Dante Corleone, or has his friends called Don Corleone. He
might be up this week for Cincinnati. A big time
defensive linemen.

Speaker 7 (01:06:38):
All right, jamis obviously Penn State licking their wounds a
little bit after the Ducks came to State College and
ruined a white out party. They're on the road at UCLA.
They're favored by almost was the quarter century mark, the
twenty four and a half point of favorites on the
road against the Bruins. The Bruins have been horrible, but

(01:07:00):
can they cover this spread?

Speaker 1 (01:07:03):
This number does not feel high enough for me to
take Ucla. But I mean, and every it's everyone's aware
of it. I mean, it's still the Sharks are keeping
at twenty four and a half. But I mean, it's
it's it's Franklin. It's a big game. They have to
win by a lot of points. Public's pilot on ten
State this week. It's gonna be it might be another
white out at the Rose Bowl this week. It might

(01:07:24):
be just another Penn State home games.

Speaker 6 (01:07:27):
All right, Seamus, it's that time the Shamus Special. What
do you have circled for us this week?

Speaker 1 (01:07:34):
No, you are not getting deja vu. We are going
back to Stetson, Florida, and we are taking over fifty
nine and a half in Davidson Stepson, these are two
awful defenses. I think there's gonna be a lot of
scoring in this one.

Speaker 8 (01:07:48):
Wow.

Speaker 9 (01:07:48):
Okay, I love them so but that's next level. I
didn't know Davidson had a football team. I thought they
were only Steph Curry basketball.

Speaker 7 (01:07:56):
Yeah, that was that's all I knew about them. My god,
this is I mean, you know, and and here's the
crazy thing about the Shamus Special. You may think, like, well,
Davidson and Stetson. I mean, there's golden them hill, Seamus.
He's he's pulled some some odd ones out for us
that have cashed.

Speaker 1 (01:08:14):
Yeah, there were a few on the board today. Zalpo
versus Drake. We got date. But Stetson's just calling me back.
I don't know what it is down there, but we
like the over. We like points in that one today.

Speaker 5 (01:08:28):
Okay, all right, well good luck with that play, Seamus,
love it, but and uh, enjoy the day, you know,
have a great day.

Speaker 6 (01:08:34):
We'll catch you soon, Bud.

Speaker 1 (01:08:35):
Thanks guys, enjoying the games today.

Speaker 4 (01:08:37):
You too. There.

Speaker 5 (01:08:38):
He is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports trading at
Bett MGM. Yeah, how about his Virginia Calve Calves the
Cavaliers the who's they are ranked. They're on the road
facing an unranked Louisville in Virginia, like Jared said, is
a six and a half point dog.

Speaker 1 (01:08:57):
That is.

Speaker 5 (01:08:59):
This reminds me of remember when Vanderbilt was favored against
South Carolina. This is earlier in the year, and you're like, Wow,
South Carolina's ranked and they're they're the dog that that
line just stunk to the high heavens. Vandy won like
thirty one to seven.

Speaker 6 (01:09:15):
You know what I mean.

Speaker 5 (01:09:15):
I'm not saying it's gonna be thirty one to seven
in this Louisville game, but I'll tell you right now
it's gonna be in rapid fire. I'm on Louisville. This
this life stinks out a loud Yeah, I mean, it's
this is the Baar trap of all traps. If you're like,
I get Virginia end points, it's like, yeah, it's not
gonna work out.

Speaker 6 (01:09:31):
It's just not.

Speaker 4 (01:09:32):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:09:33):
Virginia, They've been impressive. They've been one of the most
efficient teams in the ACC this season so far. They
especially offensively, the balance they have between the pass and
their ground game, they've been highly effective.

Speaker 4 (01:09:51):
Louisville though, I.

Speaker 7 (01:09:52):
Mean, they've leaned heavily on their defense, so it's strength
against strength, and the numbers show just how effective all
of that has been shutting down opponents. I mean, if
you look at the stat sheet, they're fantastic. How about this,
They've been elite on late downs, allowing conversions all only
thirty one plus percent of attempts. That's twelfth in the

(01:10:15):
country right now. They're a good third down defense. And
so what is the cure to an offense that has
things rolling running into a defense that Stymi's offenses on
those critical downs. So strength on strength cards it feels
like a good bet today.

Speaker 9 (01:10:33):
Yeah, I'll be perfectly honest. I've not scouted Louisville once
all year. I haven't watched much film on them. I
don't know much about them. I do think Chandler Morris
the Virginia quarterbacks playing at a pretty high level right now.
That's what I noticed last week in that Friday game
against Florida State. Seventy percent completion rate looks really good. Again,
this is a Virginia offense that does have a few

(01:10:56):
more bells and whistles than what we're used to seeing.
When I look at just a straight matchups with these teams,
it does look like Louisville's got a lot of green
across the board.

Speaker 8 (01:11:05):
Defensively, I think that's their edge in this game.

Speaker 9 (01:11:08):
Top fifteen in success right, top twenty five on third downs.
They're really good at, you know, preventing explosives and not
committing a ton of penalties. So I think this is
that's the matchup to watch here. It's that Virginia offense
with Morris, who looks better going on the road and
trying to solve a Louisville defense that's got a little

(01:11:28):
bit of, I guess.

Speaker 4 (01:11:29):
Giddy up to it.

Speaker 8 (01:11:30):
But the number under a.

Speaker 9 (01:11:31):
Touchdown is kind of like, the fact that this thing
is at seven and it's been kind of hovering around
seven all week tells me that that's probably a fair number.
We saw some seven and a half earlier that got
back to Virginia and now it kind of has been
moving back towards the seven on the Louisville side. I
think Brian nailed it. I think you just you trust

(01:11:52):
that the market is telling you something here with the
unranked home favorite. We talk about this trend all the
fricking time in college basketball.

Speaker 8 (01:12:00):
We don't see a lot in college football, but when
you do see it.

Speaker 9 (01:12:04):
It raises eyebrows. So this is Louisville or pass one
hundred percent of the time.

Speaker 4 (01:12:08):
Man.

Speaker 5 (01:12:09):
Yeah, And that's the thing. Virginia they allow a lot
of big plays. They allow eighty percent of opponents red
zone trips to be touchdowns.

Speaker 6 (01:12:18):
That's a lot.

Speaker 5 (01:12:20):
There's a going many stops in the red zone and
this is let down city. The spot that was such
an emotional what double overtime against Florida State. Nip and
tuck like the field, storming the whole thing. And now
you got to gear up hit the road against a
team like Rich said in Louisville that is stemying opponents

(01:12:41):
on early downs. That is a tough, tough task at
not gonna be easy at all. So yeah, I like Louisville.
In this one, we've got Rich Orenberger, Penn State All American,
Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian know. Be sure
to check out the new looking features in the BEDMGM app.
It's fast and easy access to this sports you love.
It's the fastest BETMGM app. Ever, it's easier than ever

(01:13:04):
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All right, coming up next, prop it up? That is right,

(01:13:25):
the prop betting waters. We'll have a canoe will be
paddling around comparing notes that comes your way. Next, it's
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
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let's do this.

Speaker 3 (01:14:05):
Prop it up player plays.

Speaker 5 (01:14:08):
Okay, prop betsko, Lord Jared, we start with you with
something you like.

Speaker 9 (01:14:14):
Let's talk about saw Bob. Who is saw Bob Sawyer Robertson,
quarterback for Baylor. Fun fact, leading passer in the nation
this year. Sawyer Robertson a Baylor. Maybe some of you
didn't know that, Well, we'll let's educate you right now.
We're gonna go over three hundred and one and a
hook today on his passing yard total, leave the country

(01:14:35):
with over seventeen hundred passing.

Speaker 8 (01:14:37):
Yards this season. Really impressive stuff.

Speaker 9 (01:14:39):
He at four nineteen against Auburn, four forty against SMU,
three ninety three last week against Okay State. This week
he plays Kansas State outside the top one hundred and
explosive pass rate defensively, so they are prone to the
big play, despite the fact that they have faced Iowa State,
North Dakota Army, who doesn't throw Arizona UCF. So I

(01:15:01):
am very bullish on Baylor's passing offense today. None of
those teams I just mentioned average two fifty per game.
Baylor averages three to fifty per game. No alpha receiver either.
Five players with at least sixteen receptions this year, all
five of those guys averaging thirteen or more yards per catch.
Robertson spreading it around nicely. Saw Bob over three oh

(01:15:22):
one and a hook passing yards today for the Bears.

Speaker 4 (01:15:25):
Saw Bob love it all right. Give me.

Speaker 7 (01:15:27):
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia on the road against Alabama the
Crimson Tide.

Speaker 4 (01:15:33):
I'm taking the over on his rushing yard fifty six
and a half.

Speaker 7 (01:15:37):
Here's why Alabama struggles against mobile quarterbacks.

Speaker 4 (01:15:40):
In the Deboor years.

Speaker 7 (01:15:41):
Here also Pavia fearless rusher in the passing game and
also planned QB runs. It's part of their offense with
him and Alexandra of the backfield. Alabama's porous rush defense,
plus the fact that on the perimeter they're especially bad,
gives Pavia an opportunity to exploit the edges of a

(01:16:02):
soft defense.

Speaker 4 (01:16:03):
They break contain a lot in the run game.

Speaker 7 (01:16:06):
I think it gives him an opportunity to move the
James pile up some yardage.

Speaker 4 (01:16:10):
Give me Pavia over fifty six and a half rushing
yards against the Crimson Tide.

Speaker 5 (01:16:17):
Okay, I think the Canes are playing some bully ball
tonight against Florida State. It's the best, arguably the best
offensive line in the country the U.

Speaker 6 (01:16:28):
I know you love it, Jared. You've been you know, definitely.

Speaker 5 (01:16:32):
Speaking glowingly and deservedly so of those Canes. So I
think they're gonna play smash mouth. Mark Fletcher Junior, He's
gone over one hundred yards in each of the past
two games. One of those games is against Florida. If
Florida plays real defense right Florida State's front seven, they've
struggled at times against the run and against Miami's offensive line.

(01:16:53):
I just think they're gonna run it early often.

Speaker 6 (01:16:55):
Throughout the game.

Speaker 5 (01:16:57):
And Jordan Lyle, he's a shifty year quicker guy. He's back,
they're expecting him to be one hundred percent. Uh So,
like the speed shiftingness all that. Mark Fletcher is just
a dump truck, you know, just running you over smash
Mouth and then you get Jordan Lyle back there. It's
a great one to two combo. So I'm gonna take

(01:17:19):
Carson Beck all that to say this, I'm gonna take
Carson Beck under his passing yards, which is that two
thirty six.

Speaker 4 (01:17:25):
And a half.

Speaker 5 (01:17:26):
I just think the Kanes rely more on their running game.
If you're relying on the running game, you're chewing up clock.
There's not that much time left in the game if
you're running it consistently, and I think they will, so
I think Carson Beck will be effective tonight. But he
has struggled in bigger games, at least he did last
year with Georgia, so it could be the same thing.

(01:17:48):
And when you have more of a strength in the
running game, more consistent, I think they're gonna rely on
that throughout the game. So I'll take Carson Beck under
two thirty six and a half passing yards.

Speaker 7 (01:17:57):
You know, I haven't looked at the number, but just
speaking of passing yardage and where my brain is going
on some of these spreads. I took the Penn State
side in the game against UCLA, their favorite twenty four
and a half on the road. The other part of that,
that narrative is all the things Drew Aller can't do,

(01:18:20):
and so in games like that, especially with a coach
like James Franklin, who you know reads the paper, I
feel like this could be a big passing game for
Drew Aler. So I don't know what his yardage total is.

Speaker 6 (01:18:32):
But I think it's two twenty four and a half.

Speaker 4 (01:18:34):
Yeah, I would take over. I would take the over
on that one.

Speaker 5 (01:18:37):
Well, you know what reminds me of It reminds me
of an arch Manning spot. Remember when he had like
like eleven straight incompletions or something like that. The next
game he went crazy. He threw over three hundred yards.
So I agree with you. I think this could be
an allur spot to you gotta get him some confidence.
What better way than to do it today against the Bruins.

Speaker 4 (01:19:00):
No doubt about it.

Speaker 7 (01:19:00):
It's just it's it's the Yeah, I'm Jared, you know
this too, the dead cat bounce, so to speak, on
some of the spreads and odds we talk, Well, it
works with player props too, and confidence boosters, slumpbusters, so
to speak. They matter for building confidence with quarterbacks.

Speaker 8 (01:19:20):
I agree. But and here's the thing.

Speaker 9 (01:19:21):
It goes back to exactly what you said in the
last segment when we were talking about the game total
in Florida and Texas and how it relates to how
you feel about these lines and the spreads and the props.

Speaker 8 (01:19:32):
The total in pens that UCLA is forty eight and
a half.

Speaker 9 (01:19:35):
So it just doesn't lend to a game that we
expect to be very high scoring. Now does that mean
there's not gonna be a lot of yards? And then
Penn State just fails in the red zone, kicks field
goals and the game still stays under but aller goes over.

Speaker 8 (01:19:46):
No, I could see that as a reasonable path.

Speaker 9 (01:19:49):
But that's why I like the sabab over because that
game I love that. Correlational to your point with the total, Yeah,
because the Kansas State Baylor total is sixty. So again,
and this is where again we're not getting two in
the weeds with the gambling stuff. But we want to
mention this stuff because I think it can help the
average fan. The average better look at these lines with

(01:20:12):
a little bit more depth and you know, intellectual advancement.
You're looking at a game total of sixty all right,
Well we expect a lot of points in a lot.

Speaker 8 (01:20:21):
Of yards in this game. Let's look to the propovers.

Speaker 9 (01:20:23):
We're looking at a Florida Texas total forty two and
a half, pence at UCLA total of forty eight and
a half. All right, probably going to be a more
defensive minded games. So if I'm looking at the props
in those games, I probably want to look under first.
So that doesn't mean that Aller can't go over, but
I just think directionally. When you're looking at a game
total at forty eight and a half, I just don't

(01:20:43):
think there's going to be a ton of points, right.

Speaker 5 (01:20:46):
I will say this like sometimes gambling can help your
football interest.

Speaker 6 (01:20:50):
Right, We're thinking this Penn State game.

Speaker 5 (01:20:52):
If Penn State gets up by three touchdowns, you might
kind of zone out, But if you're invested on minus
twenty four and a half, you're more I'm more locked
in but I think also, like ask yourself this, if
they're up by three touchdowns, are they gonna continue to
throw it? I think they should. They got to get
drew Aller some confidence. But that's not even a gambling thing.
That's a football thing that could keep you locked into

(01:21:14):
that game.

Speaker 4 (01:21:15):
Today.

Speaker 6 (01:21:17):
Oh what is going on?

Speaker 5 (01:21:18):
Happy Saturday to you as we are one hour away
from kickoff here on a college football Saturday, we're looking
forward to one of the games of the evening. Miami
number three in the country against number eighteen Florida State.

Speaker 4 (01:21:35):
Man.

Speaker 5 (01:21:35):
This team came up empty last week? Is it a
good time to back them this week? That would be
your Florida State Seminoles. They did not get to win
on the road and double overtime against Virginia. That was
a tough one, right, look like they're gonna have a
game tying touchdown and the ball was bobbled, guy comes
down with it but out of bounds and they end
up losing that game. That was a crazy back and forth,

(01:21:58):
crazy pass by Astlanos to get the game into overtime
and then it doesn't work out once it gets there.
So tough loss for the Seminoles. I think we kind
of lost out as a whole here in college football.

Speaker 6 (01:22:13):
If these are two undefeated teams.

Speaker 5 (01:22:15):
This is a monster matchup, then it's still a big matchup.
I'm still excited for it. But if it's undefeated Miami
against undefeated Florida State, man, that just takes you back
to your youth, right, and that's not what we have.
So that's a little bit unfortunate here.

Speaker 4 (01:22:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:22:29):
You know, after a full month basically that kept Miami
at home against top tier opponents, they go on the
road to face the Seminoles in an important opener and
conference play. And this is a talented offense. You know,
you have the transfer quarterback Carson Back from Georgia who's

(01:22:51):
got this offense finishing, drives well, and he's protected by
a very talented group up front, good pass blockers. With
this Miami team, this is arguably the best Miami team. Actually,
it's undoubtedly the best Miami team. Christ de Ball's had
since he's taken over down there. And I think defensively,

(01:23:12):
they've they've picked it up a notch or more than that.
Their new defensive coordinator has really gentrified and retro fitted
this defense to play toward the strengths of the players
he has, and it's showed up on the stat sheet.

Speaker 4 (01:23:27):
And so Miami, even though they take the show on the.

Speaker 7 (01:23:30):
Road against differ competition, this is a good Miami team
and they belong firmly seeded in the national conversation here
this year.

Speaker 9 (01:23:41):
Yeah, I'll be honest, when I first started looking at
this game, I didn't have a great feel for it.
And here's why. So my process will peak behind the curtain.
My process. When I'm trying to find an edge betting
a game, I'm trying to find strength on weakness. That's
always what I'm trying to find. Is there a part
of your game that you excel in that the other
team doesn't. That's always when I'm going through stats, when

(01:24:03):
I'm going through film and i'm watching, when i'm absorbing,
that's the first thing I try to find. I couldn't
find it in this game. It's strength on strength right.
Florida State loves to run the ball. Their top ten
and explosive run rate. Castiani's a great running quarterback. They're
great on third downs because they're typically in third and
manageable because they're great running the ball. Teams that usually
run it well, don't get into second and ten, third

(01:24:26):
and eight. They're usually in second and six, third and two. Well,
that's what Miami does well. The run defense is the
best part of their game. Twenty percent of runs against
Miami this year stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
So I'm trying to get to the next level of
the handicap here, and I'm like, Okay, you've got Florida
State off the loss. I like the bounce back, but
you've got Miami off the by with some rest. So

(01:24:50):
it's like, again, like it's kind of conflicting elements here
when I'm trying to handicap this game. The one thing
about Castianos that scares me though, if he gets into
a negative game script. When you look at a quarterback,
you think, oh, if they throw for more yards, their
team typically does well. That makes sense, right, Wrong, It's

(01:25:11):
actually the opposite with Castiano's when his or when he
throws for two hundred and forty or more yards, his
teams are one and five. Why, he's a running quarterback,
and when you're throwing it more with a running quarterback,
that typically means you're losing the game.

Speaker 8 (01:25:24):
So again, a little bit of.

Speaker 9 (01:25:26):
I would say back and forth nature to trying to
find an edge in this game. I think the crowd
and the factor of Miami being on the road for
the first time this season might be the one edge
to me to bet Florida State.

Speaker 8 (01:25:42):
But I'll be honest, this one is kind of a
toss up.

Speaker 4 (01:25:45):
Man.

Speaker 5 (01:25:45):
I'll tell you, if you're looking for an edge, it's
Miami's running game against that defensive line of Florida State.
Because just look at what happened last week.

Speaker 6 (01:25:54):
You look at Florida State.

Speaker 5 (01:25:55):
They gave up two hundred and eleven rushing yards to
eleven against Virginia and four touchdowns on the ground, and
they were down a ton of offensive linemen, like seven
of their top ten offensive linemen were out, and Virginia
still ran the ball on Florida State. What do you
think Miami's gonna do. Miami is the best offensive line
in the country. They are going to ground and pound

(01:26:16):
Florida State. And unless you know the crowd gives them
some crazy juice or like Carson Beck is good enough.
You can't just walk all these players into the box
and dare Carson Beck to beat you.

Speaker 4 (01:26:28):
He will.

Speaker 5 (01:26:29):
He's good enough to keep your defense honest and compared
to you know, Virginia last week, who had a lot
of success against Florida State's defensive line, I just don't
see how Miami doesn't have a lot of success running
the ball. Mark Fletcher Junior is a wrecking ball, and
it looks like they're getting Jordan lyleback who's quicker, shiftier.

(01:26:51):
I think Miami's ground game is a huge problem for
Florida State in this game.

Speaker 7 (01:26:56):
Yeah, And I would argue maybe similarly Florda to State
to Miami's defense. Miami, if they struggle, they don't have
a lot of glaring issues, you know, overall offensively and defensively,
but if they struggle anywhere, not a great tackling team.
And so you mentioned it, Jared. With Casianos being a
running quarterback, I do think he'll have to rely on

(01:27:19):
the throw here in this game. Because Miami's stout against
inside zone. They're gonna stop a lot of the early
down run game that the Seminoles are going to try
to get to.

Speaker 4 (01:27:29):
But if they start exploiting the.

Speaker 7 (01:27:31):
Edges of this defense with Cassianos involved in in the
run game, it could get to the point where we
see Miami giving up some explosives on misstackles because it's
really been their only achilles heel all season long. So
I like this game being a back and forth battle

(01:27:52):
a little bit. And I do think we're going to
see explosives on the ground both way, both ways, not
only for Miami's offense, but for the seminals as well.

Speaker 9 (01:28:00):
M Yeah, I'll give you some some notes on Miami's
offensive line. I've talked about it before. I think this
is the best offensive line in the country.

Speaker 4 (01:28:10):
I really do.

Speaker 9 (01:28:11):
I thought it was Penn State, but I guess I
have to reevaluate that opinion based off of last week.
Although that right guard, that Vega kid, he keeps getting
better every week. I think he's going to be a
top fifteen pick. Guards typically, Sorry, Rich, aren't you highly
coveted in the high rounds or the high picks of
the draft, But I do think he's one of the best.
Speaking of guards, and as Cooper right guard for Miami
six six, three fifty, he.

Speaker 8 (01:28:32):
Blocks through the echo of the whistle.

Speaker 9 (01:28:34):
He is as nasty of a run blocker as you
will see, chest up and brings the pain.

Speaker 8 (01:28:41):
The right tackle.

Speaker 9 (01:28:41):
Francis Mayoga, also first round pick attacking the second level.
You don't see tackles get to the second level too often.
He's a guy that has the athleticism to do so.
And then the left side of the line, they're kind
of going through a little bit of renovation with the
left side of their offensive line, but it's improving every week.
And I love Mark Fletcher six five, big back with speed.
So this is a team that is nasty running the football.

(01:29:05):
I agree with you, Brian. That is the edge in
this game for Miami if they if they can run
it effectively, if they can stay in a positive game script,
if Carson Beck doesn't make the big mistake. He's been
prone to interceptions sometimes on the road especially. I think
the edge for Miami in this game is that offensive line.
You don't see O lines used as a weapon too often.

(01:29:28):
The Detroit Lions do it all the time. That is
their mo They use their O line as a weapon.
Miami has an offensive line as talented, if not more,
in terms of relative speaking. Obviously they're pros to collegiate athletes,
but in terms of the relative talent on the offensive
line for Miami compared to the defensive lines that they
typically face in college football, I think is on that
level where last year you saw the Lions, we're you know,

(01:29:50):
using offensive lines like you know, basically like a spread
offense almost it's crazy. So I think this Miami o
line does have an edge. I think Fletcher's are really
good back and I think Miami, if they run it effectively,
that is the recipe to go on the road in
a tough environment and get a big win.

Speaker 3 (01:30:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:30:06):
And I also think you look at Miami.

Speaker 5 (01:30:09):
They're number thirteen in the nation in rush defense, and
you think about that. If they're able to play effective
rush defense against Florida State, that to me is like
taking away their fastball, you know what I mean, Like,
think about we're in the baseball playoffs. Now let's get
some Tarrek Schooble action in here, right. Shout out to
Chris Purfett, or technical producer the Tigers Van. If a

(01:30:32):
team is just hitting Schoobol's fastball, He's like, that's a
major part of my arsenal. Over, he still has other
bitches and he can still be effective. And I give
Castellanos his credit because he can throw it. They're not
just a rushing attack, but that's their bread and butter.
That's their fastball. And if Miami is playing good sound
rush defense, that is really problematic for Florida State when

(01:30:56):
they might have to match points. Like Miami's gonna score points,
I think they're going to run the ball down Florida
State's throat. And if Florida State can't turn around and
then run it effectively against Miami, I think they're really
going to be up against it.

Speaker 7 (01:31:08):
Yeah, let's get a little bit nerdy here, just to
just to bring some of the like, let's go like
the like the hard nose, you know, you know football
fans under the tenth for a moment, You're gonna see
a lot and I mean a lot of cover three
from from this Miami defense, which means that they're trying

(01:31:30):
to avoid the big play downfield. They like to take
the roof off of the offense, so to speak. But
that's okay because the Seminoles, like you mentioned, they want
to rely more on the run game. But the problem
is against coverages where there's three deep.

Speaker 4 (01:31:47):
Florida State has done a great job.

Speaker 7 (01:31:49):
They have a high success rate, nearing sixty percent of
completions against that coverage. Likewise, what the Seminoles are going
to do defensively is sit back there in quarters coverage?
What is car and beck highest success rate against coverage
wise quarters? So you see strength on or I should
say you see strength on weakness with coverage versus QB

(01:32:12):
and how they react to what they're seeing. Defensively, there
are certain things that quarterbacks are just more comfortable throwing
to because it's what they saw more of in high
school or it's what they've been exposed to more of
at practice or over the course of their collegiate career.
Clearly Casianos has an easier time looking at man coverage

(01:32:32):
and finding the open receiver.

Speaker 4 (01:32:34):
He throws open his receiver, Carson Beck.

Speaker 7 (01:32:38):
He does a nice job finding the voids in the
zone when you have more deep zone players. He's going
to throw in front of the defense. He's going to
get yards after catch by setting up his players with
good timing routes. And so this is going to be
a little bit of a war of attrition on both

(01:32:58):
sides defensively in the passing game, because you're going against
quarterbacks who are comfortable throwing against the coverage as you present.

Speaker 9 (01:33:05):
Yeah, I took a little Florida State this week at
four and a half.

Speaker 8 (01:33:08):
It's not a four now, I still would consider betting it.

Speaker 9 (01:33:11):
I think it's just I struggle with laying numbers on
the road or you know, more than a field goal
on the road with a team that hasn't been on
the road yet this year. And that's it's weird. You know,
we're in the first week of October and Miami has
yet to play a true road game. That's the only thing.
And we talk about this a lot with you know,
Drew Roller and Penn State. We need to also bring

(01:33:33):
Mario Crystaball into the chat. Oh yeah, absolutely right, Like
we haven't mentioned that name yet this year in the
crystal Ball way that he can cut right, yeah, tight
sphincter syndrome. It's a thing with mister crystal Ball. And
I love this Miami team. I have some Carson Beck
for Heisman. I think Miami's legit. I think their offensive line,

(01:33:55):
as I said, is the best in the country. But
we talk about getting Lagway at some point this year,
we're gonna get Crystabald, right, Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:34:03):
Yeah, it's true. It is true because he will he'll
get conservative to a fault.

Speaker 6 (01:34:08):
And man, we talked about It's funny.

Speaker 5 (01:34:10):
We talked about Ryan Day last year getting tight and
he gets tight, and then all of a sudden they
got loose when the playoff ruled around And then then
you saw them take off if Miami, you know they can.
We're up by seven. Let's be conservative here. It's like, no, man,
just play your game. Stop playing the score, and just

(01:34:32):
play your game. I've seen that so many times, like
time and time and time again with Justin Herbert, who's
flourishing as an NFL quarterback. They were so careful. They
were like Drew Aller careful, no kidding. With Herbert at
Oregon when Chrystal Ball was there, it was obnoxious. It
was just like, let's be careful, let's be careful. Oh

(01:34:52):
we're losing, go ahead and win it for is Herbert
and he's like, no problem, I got you. Finally I
can do something here, right. So it's something to keep
an eye on, for sure. Crystal Ball gets very tight.

Speaker 7 (01:35:03):
Yeah, However, in close games, I mean you could see
these offenses opening up a little bit. The more we
talk about this, the less I'm interested on a side here,
and the more I'm interested in the over I think.

Speaker 4 (01:35:16):
I think we just.

Speaker 7 (01:35:18):
The success rate these qbs have against the type of
coverages they're going to see. The faith I have in
both of these teams run games, I feel like we
could see we're at fifty four and a half, right,
I could see this marching close to that number over Yeah,
I mean, just just in terms of I agree with you,

(01:35:41):
Chrystal Ball. It's hard to be on Miami with the
way he's coached in certain games.

Speaker 4 (01:35:46):
Florida State.

Speaker 7 (01:35:47):
I don't know if I'm a complete believer yet, but
the over feels like it's in play.

Speaker 9 (01:35:52):
Here's a good question, which script favors Which team does
a low scoring game with Miami's game favor of the
Hurricanes winning, or does a low scoring game with Castiano's
keeping bully ball control with his legs favor Florida State.

Speaker 6 (01:36:10):
You know, it's funny.

Speaker 5 (01:36:11):
I think low or high scoring still favors Miami both
They both of them favor Miami because they could play
low scoring bullyball. Yeah, they could play more of a
high scoring game. I like Miami both ways.

Speaker 9 (01:36:24):
Miami does have a good change up. I think I
think Miami like to me, Carson Beck is like the
number one guy right Like he's the he's the quarterback.
He's the four star kid that came in the transfer.
But Miami's change up is that run game in that
offensive line. Like, that's to me, utilizing that offensive line
as a throttle up, throttle down for when we they
did it against Florida, Right, Carson Beck wasn't having a

(01:36:45):
great game against Florida.

Speaker 8 (01:36:46):
It was kind of you.

Speaker 9 (01:36:47):
Know, that zone coverage was kind of tripping them up
a little bit through a bad interception.

Speaker 8 (01:36:50):
It was kind of hit or miss.

Speaker 9 (01:36:52):
But then in the second half of that game, they said,
screw this, We're just gonna run it right down your
throat and they closed out the football game utilizing that
all offensive line.

Speaker 8 (01:37:00):
It was a very low scoring game.

Speaker 9 (01:37:02):
And then on the other side of the equation in
the in notre Name game, you saw Carson Beck's arm
and his explosion with those receivers be the deciding factor.

Speaker 8 (01:37:11):
So to your point, Brian, I agree.

Speaker 9 (01:37:13):
I think Miami can lever up, lever down based off
of the style. Styles make fights, Like what style of
game does Florida State.

Speaker 8 (01:37:21):
Want to play?

Speaker 9 (01:37:22):
They might set the tone at home, but then I
think Miami can counter.

Speaker 3 (01:37:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (01:37:26):
Right, it's a fun game.

Speaker 9 (01:37:27):
There's a fun Matt honestly, really very fun matchup this game.

Speaker 8 (01:37:29):
I'm very excited to watch this game.

Speaker 5 (01:37:31):
I am too, I am too, and I don't want
to be the Debbie Downer here, But man, what could
have been a Florida State found a way, especially like
double overtime, I know, the found away on the road
to win this dramatic game against Virginia and that man,
now we got what would it be like three verses four?
I don't even know, yeah, three versus ten something like that,
something like yeah, yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:37:52):
Speaking of overtime losses, I mean, if Penn State just
didn't throw an inn or so, you know, would be
so different.

Speaker 9 (01:38:00):
They still would have lost the game. You know why,
because they were up to seven and overtime and their
defense couldn't get off the field. We were gonna cover
that one in overtime. That would have been the awesome,
the best front door cover ever we've somehow got across
the finish line.

Speaker 8 (01:38:13):
But of course the defense couldn't get us home.

Speaker 4 (01:38:16):
I'm gonna throw up. We'll be right back.

Speaker 8 (01:38:18):
Yeah, don't throw off. You're in a car right now.

Speaker 4 (01:38:20):
I don't know if that's good. That all right?

Speaker 5 (01:38:24):
We got we got rich Hornberger, Penn State all American
Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 6 (01:38:29):
I'm Brian No.

Speaker 5 (01:38:30):
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Speaker 6 (01:38:40):
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Speaker 6 (01:38:46):
All right, coming up next.

Speaker 5 (01:38:47):
This team has been pretty good this season, but they
are big underdogs today. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
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(01:39:40):
The way tire buying should be. Okay, we've move right
into a game we'll go rapid fire here because we
haven't even talked about my Irish yet, So I got
a cart some time for that. What a dominating performance.

Speaker 1 (01:39:52):
Left.

Speaker 5 (01:39:53):
We're looking at Mississippi State at number six Texas A
and M, and I'll tell you what, man, Mississippi State's.

Speaker 6 (01:40:01):
Been pretty good this year. They're four and one.

Speaker 5 (01:40:03):
Their only loss was last week against the Tennessee team
where it was this crazy shootout game. They had a
chance to score a touchdown in overtime to keep the game,
like extend the game, and it fell short. But you
lose an overtime against Tennessee, that's your only loss on
the year. They're sixteen and a half point undertos against

(01:40:25):
Texas A and M. I is a disrespectful line. It's
one that makes me say, WHOA, Maybe you guys know
something I don't know. This is only the second road
game for Mississippi State. Their only road game was the
first game of the season at Southern miss They beat
Arizona State at home. They faced Alcorn State in Northern
Illinois at home. They lost that close one against Tennessee

(01:40:48):
in overtime, and now we hit the road again. But man,
A and M, you see A and M covering sixteen
and a half today against Mississippi State, who's been feisty
thus far.

Speaker 6 (01:40:58):
What are you see in this one?

Speaker 7 (01:40:59):
You know, I'm not disagreeing with you full out because
I credit to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has looked competent
at very least this season, if not good, But it
kind of feels like Texas A and M should be
able to sail past them without too much heartache. And
here's why Mississippi State doesn't get any pressure on quarterbacks,

(01:41:24):
I mean less than zero.

Speaker 4 (01:41:26):
It's bad.

Speaker 7 (01:41:27):
And in order to have a chance against Texas A
and M, you need to be able to disrupt their
passing game. And the best way to do that, obviously
is with a pass rush, which the Bulldogs really provide
zero urgency, it feels like upfront. So that is a
huge win just just in terms of game script for

(01:41:47):
A and M to sort of operate unfettered from a
passing game. And you know, you look back to the
Mississippi State against tennis. Even though it's a close game
into the fourth quarter, ten of the passes went for
at least fifteen yards in that game from the balls offense.
It just doesn't bode well against the Texas A and

(01:42:07):
M offense that may be even better.

Speaker 9 (01:42:10):
Yet, when I watch this ANM offense, it's very stop start.
It's like one yard, two yards, fifty yards, one yard,
two yards, twenty five yard Like it's it's kind of
like a Sputters butter spit offense.

Speaker 5 (01:42:22):
Or against Notre Dame, it's like one yard, two yard
eighty five yards.

Speaker 9 (01:42:26):
You know you throw, yeah, but that's the vibe, right,
Like I think A and M does have this explosive
potential with Marcel Reid, but it can be a little
bit inconsistent sometimes, which d gives up more explosives, like
when you want to talk about, yeah, trying to predict
which team is going to win a football game. Turnovers

(01:42:47):
is obviously a huge thing, but explosives that's the new
that's all the rage these days. Can you create an
explosive play on offense or defense On the defensive side,
we call it havoc. That's kind of the term that
gets used in the analytical circles these days when we're
trying to describe defensive explosives. Mississippi State has to cause

(01:43:10):
havoc defensively today. Why they don't have a ton of depth,
so they're kind of a bend but don't break defense.

Speaker 8 (01:43:17):
That means they need to a create turnovers, create.

Speaker 9 (01:43:20):
Negative plays because if not eventually and the market's kind
of telling you right. Sometimes when you're undecided on a game,
use the numbers the market is giving you to try
to formulate or reformat, refocus your opinion.

Speaker 8 (01:43:35):
Missisippi State's played pretty well this year, won a.

Speaker 9 (01:43:37):
Couple games that maybe they shouldn't have won, big upset
over Arizona State, battled against Tennessee. But they're on the
road against a good team, and the market is telling
you that they are going to get hammered. So don't
let their solid performances early in the season take away
from the fact that at their core, this was a

(01:43:58):
team with a win total of three and a half
heading into the season. They've burning one over that win total.
Great job by you if you bet the over, but
this at their core, they feel like a team that
needs to create that explosive play, both on offense and
on defense. And if they can't do that today, if
they can't get TFLs, if they can't force turnovers, it
kind of feels like a and M is just gonna

(01:44:20):
go one, two fifty one, two sixty and eventually they'll
get in front of the number.

Speaker 5 (01:44:25):
And they've got the dudes to do it, right If
Mississippi State is getting no pressure as rich throughout there,
I mean, you've got Marcel Reid, who's a home run
hitter and he's throwing to Mario Craver, who I still
have nightmares about against Notre Dame, and Casey Concepts, the
own who's been a really good transfer for them. Le'Veon
Moss looked great last week. He ran for a healthy

(01:44:48):
total like over like around one thirty five or he
went crazy last week.

Speaker 8 (01:44:52):
He might be the best running back in the country
outside of Jeremiah.

Speaker 4 (01:44:55):
Yeah, yeah, I agree.

Speaker 6 (01:44:56):
Hey, well, speaking to Jeremiah Lte.

Speaker 8 (01:44:58):
Oh that's a right there.

Speaker 5 (01:45:02):
We got Boise State at number twenty one, Notre Dame,
Notre Dame taking up an even healthier favorite twenty one
and a half. Wow against Boise States. A that's a
lot to cover right there. But I'll tell you what,
here's my question with Notre Dame. They played real defense
last week against Arkansas, and ah, how sweet that was.
Heading into that game, it seemed like the world was

(01:45:23):
I love Arkansas.

Speaker 4 (01:45:24):
Me too.

Speaker 5 (01:45:25):
I love Arkansas.

Speaker 4 (01:45:25):
You too?

Speaker 5 (01:45:26):
Yeah yeah, John, you and y'all. We're all in on Arkansas.
I love Arkansas.

Speaker 3 (01:45:30):
Who's John?

Speaker 8 (01:45:31):
I don't know.

Speaker 9 (01:45:32):
There's a guy who loves the rasor guy who loves Arkansas,
who loves the poor.

Speaker 8 (01:45:36):
This week he's living under a bridge.

Speaker 5 (01:45:38):
Yeah, Joe, you went on the Razorbacks. Hell yeah, I'm
in on the Razorbacks.

Speaker 9 (01:45:41):
Also living under a bridge, Yepole fifty.

Speaker 5 (01:45:45):
Six to thirteen And that Notre Dame defense, that was
a surprise. They've been a grease fire all season long.
And you hold Taylor Green and check, you hold that
Bobby Petrino offense in check to the tune of thirteen points.

Speaker 8 (01:46:02):
Got that trade fired?

Speaker 5 (01:46:03):
Yeah that's right. Yeah, Petrino's in like Sam Pittman is out.
So you've got a Notre Dame's defense looked at a
whole lot better. Will it look good going forward or
are they gonna revert back to their horrid ways?

Speaker 4 (01:46:17):
Now?

Speaker 5 (01:46:18):
It's probably somewhere in the middle. But what do you
think it's gonna be more of? Do you think it's
gonna be, you know, like somewhat stellar like last week,
or it's gonna be train wreck city like it was
for the other games this season.

Speaker 7 (01:46:31):
Well, you guys know the ties I have to the
Mount West. I call a bunch of games in the
Mount West. I was on one last night between Colorado
State and San Diego State in San Diego, a blowout
of bloodbat. San Diego State was trouncing the Rams, but
getting to the Broncos here against Notre Dame.

Speaker 4 (01:46:49):
You know, look, a group of five favorite every year
for good reason.

Speaker 7 (01:46:52):
The past two decades. They've built up this incredible profile
of winning. And after that road loss to USF to
open this season, they've bounced back nicely. They've won three straight.
They've opened up in the passing game. They've scored forty
nine points per game through the past three. And you
have Dylan Riley, you have sired games. Both are averaging

(01:47:16):
over six yards per carry. They're trying to replace ashten genty,
the now Raider running backs production from a year ago,
and they're doing a nice job.

Speaker 4 (01:47:25):
And then you have k Poles who Madson their quarterback.

Speaker 7 (01:47:29):
Is throwing to and he's got a boatload of receiving
yards already and two touchdowns, so he's an explosive playmaker
as part of this Boise State offense. That's the synopsis
that you have not a tremendous defense here going against
this Notre Dame defense. I mean, look sixty three and
a half. Like Jared was telling you earlier, you got

(01:47:51):
to listen to the market sometimes and maybe.

Speaker 4 (01:47:53):
Take a harder look at the props.

Speaker 7 (01:47:55):
This may come up on rapid fire, by the way,
because the market's telling you that there should be a
lot of a lot of yardage in this game, a
lot of scoring in this game, and it's not going
to be all one way. Boise State's gonna get theirs
in this game. It could be a closer game than
you're comfortable with.

Speaker 4 (01:48:15):
Mister no hm m I see.

Speaker 9 (01:48:18):
When I watched Boise in that F and to be fair,
I have not watched them the last few weeks. I
kind of wrote Boise off after that USF game.

Speaker 4 (01:48:24):
Oak.

Speaker 8 (01:48:24):
Yeah, this team's gonna struggle this year without Ash.

Speaker 4 (01:48:26):
I don't blame you, by the way. A loss.

Speaker 9 (01:48:29):
Yeah it was, and it's not like USF's looked great
since then. But I think what USF was able to
do is exploit the physicality. That's the one thing about
Boise and we saw in the Penn State game last
year too. They struggle when they are when the game
is brought to them and they're the nail, not the hammer.
They're typically the hammer because they play in a conference

(01:48:52):
that doesn't have a ton of physicality and they have
better players than a lot of these other teams in
the Mountain West.

Speaker 8 (01:48:57):
Well, now they're they're level I think.

Speaker 9 (01:48:59):
Of talent is just tailed off a little bit and
they're struggling to be that hammer. And when they are,
you see it against Air Force and app State in
Eastern Washington.

Speaker 8 (01:49:10):
Sure it's great.

Speaker 9 (01:49:12):
Now you're facing a very upset Notre Dame team that
still feels like they have a chip on their shoulder,
and they've now scored fifty six points in back to
back weeks and the defense is kind of starting to
button things up. My vibe is if Notre Dame can
win this game by fifty, they will because now they
need style points. We are at the point now in
the season where if they go ten and two, they

(01:49:35):
should be in the playoffs. As long as those ten
wins down the stretch look pretty darn good, and they've
got a lot of opponents that they can put some
distance between themselves right at n See State US SEE.
That actually gonna be a really interesting game against USC
and then Boston College. Navy pits here at CU Stanford. Like,
we expect Notre Dame to be ten and two, but

(01:49:55):
it will be ten wins against unranked teams, so those
ten wins need to be pretty darn decisive.

Speaker 8 (01:50:03):
Now, is twenty one and a half a fair number? Probably?

Speaker 9 (01:50:07):
Notre Dame is coming off of a whopper of a win.
You typically don't bet on teams after they win by
forty three. You're just not getting a great number in
the market because the market typically moves in that team's favor.
And on the other side of the equation, Boise State's
also coming off of a really big, decisive win, but
they're facing they faced app States, So again, the market
dynamics here, I think are telling you Notre Dame should

(01:50:29):
comfortably win this game. I just don't know if they
are going to win it by that much. This is
a layoff for me. I think twenty one is fair.
I think that's a fair price.

Speaker 8 (01:50:38):
For this game.

Speaker 5 (01:50:39):
Okay, how about Texas Tech at Houston? This number is
creeping up a little bit more. Texas Tech now favored
by thirteen and a half. Very impressive last week. They
lost well. Last game, they lost their quarterback Baron Morton
to injury against Utah.

Speaker 6 (01:50:54):
Here comes Will Hammond.

Speaker 5 (01:50:55):
How does thirteen for sixteen for a bucks sixty nine
and two touchdowns with no sound against the really physical
Utah defense. That's like wow, all of a sudden, Texas
Tech is plug and play. Like their defensive line is
really good. You look at this Houston offense. I just
don't see how they match points at all they are.

(01:51:15):
They're three and out nearly thirty nine percent of the time.
That is dreadful, and I just I think they're gonna
get steamrolled in this game.

Speaker 7 (01:51:25):
You gotta love what Texas Tech did just from a
recruitment and transfer portal standpoint, they spent a lot of money.
They were able to secure twenty one extremely high caliber transfers,
including shoring up the defensive line with David Bally. Their
defense has been incredibly stingy. They've only surrendered or they

(01:51:48):
haven't surrendered more than fourteen points in a game so
far this season, and they were able to stifle Utah
in Salt Lake City, not an easy place to play.

Speaker 4 (01:51:57):
Well.

Speaker 7 (01:51:58):
I've been to rice ecls many time, and that's a
tough environment on the road to have success.

Speaker 4 (01:52:04):
So I agree with you.

Speaker 7 (01:52:06):
I don't know how much Houston has for Texas Tech.
They stacked up this offseason in terms of exploiting the
new rules, the transfer portal, NILS. It's retro fitting and
changing some of these programs that are really you know,
that have a strong base of donors and alumni who

(01:52:27):
are interested in investing in the program's future.

Speaker 4 (01:52:30):
And that's what the Red Raiders have.

Speaker 7 (01:52:32):
And like I said, already, early this season, you're seeing
a lot of these transfers playing great football. They gelled
early this season. Texas Tech, They're on a little bit
of a warpath right now.

Speaker 8 (01:52:43):
Guys, don't overthink this one.

Speaker 9 (01:52:45):
Sometimes you just have to look at the basic, basic stats,
at basic results, and you can formulate an opinion on
the game. I've not watched Houston once all year, full disclosure,
I haven't watched one second of them.

Speaker 4 (01:52:59):
How dare you?

Speaker 9 (01:53:00):
How dare to flow in the Big Twelve, which, by
the way, the Big twelve. The PAC twelve died so
the Big twelve could live. What a weird Blackie conference
this year? The Big twelve is but Houston wins over
Steven f Austin, Rice, Colorado, Oregon State.

Speaker 7 (01:53:16):
Okay, I watched the entire Houston Oregon State game, and
I promise you didn't miss much.

Speaker 8 (01:53:22):
I didn't miss much.

Speaker 9 (01:53:24):
Meanwhile, Texas Tech, you know, blowout wins over Arkansas, Plin,
buff Kent State, Oregon State, and then the win at Utah. Right,
that's the one that you have to take seriously. If
you go on the road in conference play and you
decisively win, it changes your chemistry, It changes the way
you feel about your team, right, and Rich I know

(01:53:44):
you do this because you go on the road with
these teams.

Speaker 8 (01:53:46):
When you're coming back from.

Speaker 9 (01:53:47):
A road win, oh man, like, there is no better
feeling than that on the team, boss, team playing whatever.
So just based off that result in itself, you have
to take Texas Tech seriously. Then you look at Houston's
offense and you're wow, they're like one hundred and thirty
first in offensive success, Right, how the heck are they
four and oh?

Speaker 8 (01:54:05):
And then you look at the market and you're like.

Speaker 9 (01:54:06):
Wow, Texas Tech's a fourteen point favorite on the road
in conference play. Again, don't overthink this. The market is
telling you that Texas Tech is the significantly better team
despite the fact that both these teams have the exact
same record. Don't overthink it, bet Texas Decker, don't bet
this game at all.

Speaker 5 (01:54:24):
Well, and I also think, hey, man, listen, three and out.
I don't think it's ever good, right, but it can
be way worse against certain opponents. So if you think
of Houston again, they go three and out nearly thirty
nine percent of the time. Wolf, that's a ton You
go three and out against Oregon State, Eh, you know
it might be okay. You go three and out against

(01:54:44):
Texas Tech.

Speaker 4 (01:54:46):
Lookout.

Speaker 5 (01:54:47):
The chances are they probably scored their previous drive and
now they're right back on the field again and your
defense might be gassed. That is a recipe for disaster.

Speaker 6 (01:54:58):
For Houston in this one. Oh yeah, it's uh.

Speaker 5 (01:55:01):
I think you have to take something pretty fluky for
uh Houston to even hang in this one. So man,
I have I have like nineteen plays I want to
sneak into right now, fire, I know, I gotta whittle
it down to three. This is an American what are
we doing? We got rich Orenberger, Penn State All American,
Jared Smith FSR. Betting analyst. I'm Brian No Coming up next,

(01:55:21):
rapid Fire. We each have three selections for you. We
throw them your way in a concise, strategic fashion. I
don't know if that makes sense, but a bunch of
picks coming up. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by Bet MGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by Bett MGM. If you missed anything

(01:55:44):
on today's show, you'll want to catch the podcast. Just
search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts. Right
after the show, today's pod will be posted. Be sure
to follow it, rate it five stars, and you can
even provide a review.

Speaker 4 (01:55:56):
Again.

Speaker 5 (01:55:57):
Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts,
and you'll find today's full show posted right after we
get off the air. Props to the crew, our trusted
producer Bo Benson, the Dodger Zone Pod, huge NLDS series
against the Phillies. Check all the tidbits out on the
Dodger Zone Pod. Our technical producer extraordinary Chris Purfett. Shout

(01:56:20):
out to him and shout out to our guy Sager
on digital posting our clips. Give Fox Sports Radio a
follow on x can see our smiling faces over there.
All right, we got some picks to make before we
do that up on game LaVar Arrington, TJ. Huschman's out
of Plexico Birthday've got you covered less than ten minutes
from now, keep it locked right here on Fox Sports Radio.

(01:56:40):
How dare I almost short change them on a shout out?
I'm just so kiddy about these picks.

Speaker 8 (01:56:44):
Let's do it.

Speaker 3 (01:56:49):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 6 (01:56:51):
All right, Jared, we start with you. What's something you like?

Speaker 9 (01:56:53):
I've gone two and one four street leads. I will
take that every single week for the rest of the season. Please,
Gambling God, don't smite us. I'm gonna lay twenty four
and a half points with Penn State today Ucla.

Speaker 8 (01:57:04):
Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment.

Speaker 9 (01:57:06):
If you think it was a rough week for Penn State,
how about Ucla that's been the entire season. Parted ways
with Tino Sinseri, the're oc the tight end coach and
former UCLA quarterback Jerry Neuheisel will call plays this week.
And yes, Drew Allers looked like Uncle Drew this season,
but I think this is a good spot for the
Nittney Lions that bounce back. Hopefully the run game really responds.

(01:57:26):
Nebraska minus twelve and a half at home against Michigan State.
Get back game for the Huskers. They lost to Michigan
two weeks ago. Two years ago Matt rules first season
as head coach. They went to Michigan State as a
road favorite. Sparti was zero to five in the Big Ten.
They upset the corn Huskers. There's your bulletin board material.
Big game for Nebraska as they try to get their
CFP hopes back on track. I think they cover against

(01:57:47):
Party and I'm going over Vandy and Bama over fifty
five and a half. Both offenses hunting explosives, the ego Pavia.
I love this kid plays football without announce of fear.
Simpson is a legit Heisman candidate, and there's some juice
to this game. Over fifty five and a half, Bandy
and Memma, all right.

Speaker 7 (01:58:04):
I start us off with the Manning Lagway Bowl, Texas.
They've gotten extremely strong defense Florida. They're not slouches on
that side of the ball, and Manning is breaking in
his season still as as he takes over as the
starter with Tejas, Florida's offense is dreadful. That's four reasons

(01:58:24):
to take the under. I'm taking the first half under,
So give me under twenty one and a half points.

Speaker 4 (01:58:30):
In Florida, Texas, Boise State quarterback.

Speaker 6 (01:58:33):
I think it's twenty.

Speaker 4 (01:58:34):
Is it twenty? Are you okay with that? Yeah? Give
me twenty and a half. I'll take it. I'll take it. Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:58:39):
I don't think a lot of points are going to
be scored in that game. Thank you for the correction.
Boise State facing Notre Dame QB of Maddox Madson. His
line on the passing yardage is two fifteen and a half. Look,
the market is telling you points will be scored. The
total is up to sixty three and a half points
mean passing yardage. Madson hasn't thrown under two fifteen all

(01:59:03):
season long. He's gonna go over that mark. Alabama Vandy, Okay,
the over is in play here. Fifty six and a
half is where that numbers at right now?

Speaker 4 (01:59:15):
Diega Pavia.

Speaker 7 (01:59:16):
He's gonna pick up some explosives in the past game.
He can hurt you with his like bamouth defense. Gives
up a bunch of points that haven't been able to
keep people out of the end.

Speaker 4 (01:59:25):
Zon Vandy is also an.

Speaker 7 (01:59:27):
Average passing defense, and I'll say this, Ty Simpson looks
like a Heisman finalist, so I think points will be
scored fifty six and a half. I feel like the
total can sail pass this, So give me the over
there as well.

Speaker 5 (01:59:43):
Okay, I will.

Speaker 6 (01:59:45):
I will go with an under as well. Rich I'm
with you. I gave this out in the parlay platter.
I like it.

Speaker 5 (01:59:51):
I just think that there's a lot of defensive talent
and I don't trust either offense, especially the DJ Lagway offense.
Give me Texas Florida under forty two, two and a half.
I'm laying the six and a half with Louisville. I
think it's the stinkiest line of the week, but it
does make some sense. Virginia off a very emotional win
double overtime against Florida State.

Speaker 6 (02:00:13):
We had Florida State seminals getting.

Speaker 5 (02:00:15):
Bowled over by a tidal wave of fans rushing the field,
storming the field, right, So I'm just gonna be hard
to crank it up again. Such a it's letdown city.
This is a letdown spot if there ever was one.
And you look at Virginia. They allow a lot of
big plays and they allow you to score touchdowns in
the red zone. So I'll take Miller Moss, I'll take

(02:00:36):
Louisville minus the six.

Speaker 6 (02:00:37):
And a half, and I'm rolling with my guy.

Speaker 5 (02:00:40):
Give me Notre Dame wide receiver Malachai fields over fifty
three and a half receiving yards. He is a fifty
yard receiving metronome. They're gonna be scoring points. They're gonna
be gaining yards against Boise State. You need style points
as well. Give me Malachai.

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