November 26, 2025 • 38 mins
On today’s episode, Jason is joined by FOX Sports betting analyst Patrick Everson for a full preview of the NFL Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, and Sunday Week 13 slate from a wagering perspective.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is straight Fire with Jason MacIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, straight Fire Fire?
Speaker 3 (00:13):
It's me Jason MacIntyre, straight for your for Wednesday, November
the twenty sixth. A happy early Thanksgiving to all the
straight Fire listeners. Obviously, I'm very thankful for you guys
keeping this podcast going. We are now on four plus years.
I think the spring will be five years. Just amazing.
(00:34):
Very thankful for you guys to deliver the download, share
it like it, give me reviews. I don't really ask
for that a lot. I know a lot of other
podcasts do that, and that's like a hack. Hey, guys,
unsubscribe and then subscribe. Everybody do it on Tuesday at noon.
Apparently that's what some of the big podcasts do. I
don't really care to do that. I'm sure the iheartfolks
would love it if I did more of that. It
(00:55):
just feels cheesy and I'm just gonna deliver and you
guys don't like it, or you won't, you know, I mean,
I at some point you got to just hope that
the product delivers. And I feel like we are if
we're not, trust me, I hear about it from you guys.
So a special Thanksgiving edition. We brought on Patrick Everson,
outstanding voice in the gambling space. He's at ground zero
(01:17):
in Vegas, talks to all the bookmakers, knows where the
big money is, knows where the head fakes are, knows
where the public weak money is.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
So we talk about all that.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
For the Thanksgiving games and beyond, I will be with
the family, trying to not focus too much on the sports.
Obviously Thursday and Friday it's stuff, not too but just
try to unplug for a little bit, if you will.
And it's weird because this is a great time, like
November is my favorite sports month of the year. You
get primo college basketball, although that's a little diluted this year,
(01:49):
even though the talent is off the charts.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
The tournaments are wacky.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
You get meaningful college football, you get obviously NFL headed
toward the playoffs. You get a lot of NBA action.
But unfortunately we're just going to basically keep this one
to the NFL. I'm not going to really dig into this.
You know, college football ranks, and it didn't really seem
like anything happened. Oregon goes ahead of Old Miss after
(02:15):
beating USC, but it doesn't really matter. Old Miss is
gonna be fine if it beats the Mississippi State and
the Egg Bowl. Now, if Lane leaves, I cannot imagine
they win that game and he leaves. If they lose,
maybe Lane walks away and it's like, I'm going we're
not going to the playoff. But if they win and
he leaves, that would be unprecedented. They're a one loss team.
(02:36):
They had one bad quarter against Georgia and they gave
up twenty one points and lost the game. Other than that,
they're a contender. I mean, it's Ohio State and everybody's
kind of battling after that.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
But who knows.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Ohio State went in last year to Michigan with I'm
sorry no, the game was at home.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
They had a loaded roster. They're running backs.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Last year Ohio States were Judkins and Henderson. They're both
studs in the NFL. Starters this year, okay, their wide
receiver room was Abukah Jeremiah Smith and the wide receiver tape.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Folks like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Abuka was like contending for Rookie the Year in the
NFL and they scored ten points. So the wacky things
happened in that game. Obviously, I think ohast, it's better.
I have zero college football bets on this podcast. I
will tell you about three that I made. This is
all I've got so far in college football. Penn State
minus twelve, Virginia Tech plus ten and a half, Louisiana
(03:30):
Monroe plus ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
I obviously will get down more. I'll post those on
IG stories.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
It's just it's a rough week and I don't have
any NFL locks survivor you. We'll talk about it with Patrick. Yeah,
it's a crazy week, and obviously I don't. I say
I'm gonna unplug, and then I say look for my
picks on Instagram. You know, that's just dumb, but that's
the reality. That's where we are until I finalized this newsletter,
which is close or I'm just gonna put all my
(03:57):
picks there and you guys will know it.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
I'm not going to promote it. You just know to
go there and get those.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
My hope is the second week in December we start
to put the plays on there and I'll have breakdowns, actually,
because that's what I used to do at Fox digitally,
but not doing that anymore. It's just a lot of
work now. If you're doing it for yourself. That's a
different story, all right, without further ado, Patrick Everson from
Foxsports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
He's at Vegas Insider.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Everybody have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome back
to straight fire Man.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
This guy's as plugged in as anybody on the ground
in Vegas.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I know.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Listen, some of these guests don't like it when I
gas him up. But Patrick Everson's been doing the some
of the best stuff out of Vegas for the last
few years. He got snatched up by Fox. He's at
the better collective. He's ever everywhere. Patrick, How you doing, man,
I'm very.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
Good, Jason. Thanks a lot for having me on the
podcast this week.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, yeah, I know you're super busy, so we won't
take up too much of your time. But I've had
a history with Thanksgiving week. I always struggle. I'm sure
other people talk about this. There's just so much happening
with travel, family, you know, logistics, you got kids home
from college. My wife, if she asks me to even
touch a turkey, I'm like totally rattled. I'm like just
(05:27):
out of my domain of expertise. I can't handle the
So it's like the NFL makes it tough. So we're
recording this Tuesday afternoon. There's three potentially great games. Thursday,
there's a crazy game Friday Bears Eagles, and then you
got the full Sunday slate. You got family, you got
just a lot going on. I'm curious, how do you
handle this week in working with the casinos and getting
(05:49):
down bets yourself.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Well, like you said, it's definitely challenging.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
You get the triple header on Thanksgiving Day, so you know,
back to back to back, and like you said, there's
turkey in the oven and stuff in game made and
all that other stuff.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
And got my son's home for the week. We've got
two dogs in the house. It's a rat race around here.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
So uh no, look, it is a little uh it
makes it a little more challenging to get the bookmaker's
perspective because the week kind of caves in on them
as well. And the one thing that you know, I
feel like I get to do a lot of the
fun stuff in this industry, and that's talking to the
folks behind the counter and having them tell me, you know,
explain why things are happening, where the money is coming in,
where the sharp guys are, where are the public people
(06:30):
like me and perhaps like you, and you know what
they're what their needs are going to be.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
But the week caves in on them really quickly too.
Speaker 5 (06:37):
You know, some of them are traveling, some of them
are you know, so there's they might be short staff
this week. So it's it definitely makes it a challenge
for everybody involved, the content side, the bookmaker side, uh,
the podcast side with you, like, yeah, it's everybody's everybody's
up against the up against the clock this week.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
And let's be real, Patrick, you look around and it's
like quarterbacks around the league. You don't know who's as
of right now, there's so many injuries. Jordan Love separated shoulder. Patrick,
I watch video. He didn't hand off with his left
hand on Sunday, and now he's got to go into
Detroit and face Hutchison a company. We still don't have
full clarity and if Joe Burrow is going to start
we think he is, but the line isn't really acting
(07:17):
like it.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
CJ.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Stroud expected back maybe for the Texans, I don't know,
so I am curious around the league with the quarterback stuff.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
How do you handle that?
Speaker 4 (07:27):
Well, that's it's.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
It's the same as as you would or certainly the public,
certainly the Sharper betters are all over. It's it's all
about that, you know, when the information gets there and
how soon you can bet it. If you're trying to
beat it, if you're trying to beat a number or
get a better number. It's definitely going to be a
challenge this week, I feel like. I mean, just from
the conversations I've had with a couple of oddsmakers this week,
(07:49):
they feel pretty comfortable that Burrow is going to play thirsty. Okay,
I kind of thought that when Cincinnati didn't win last
week that might tilt the tape the other way. I mean,
they're they really I don't think he can get to
the playoffs if they had one last week. With the
way that the AFC North has played out, I was like.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
Okay, you can't. You can't give up yet.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Your two games behind Baltimore and Baltimore five weeks ago
was one and five, So you know, so why give up?
And I'm not saying they should give up now necessarily.
I just thought maybe they might rethink that. But from
the bookmakers I've talked to, they feel like Burrow is
going to be the guy on the field come Thursday night.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
You make a great point with c. J.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
Stroud, But you know, Davis Mills, I think they're they're
three and oh with him now, aren't they.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Or something like that, and their defense is just lights out.
Their defense is.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Like well too, I think two and well as a defense.
He filled in for Stratt when he got hurt and
they lost that one to Denver. But otherwise you're right,
he's been pretty damn good.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Yeah, well, on the defense he's been.
Speaker 5 (08:46):
He's he's driven the bus and kept it on the road,
and the defense in Houston is just lights out. So
if he can do that with that defense as we saw, uh,
you know, last week against the Bills, then you know
they they you know, they may give the Colts some trouble.
Even though the Colts are off to a super super
good start.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
And I didn't even mention Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Do we feel he's going to start this AC joint spring,
because that's a big one for Tampa to try to
hold off Carolina in the division.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
I mean, I don't think Carolina is good, but Teddy
Bridgewater looked horrific.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
I mean, yeah, exactly. Tampa had such a good first
few weeks and they were really entertaining to watch, and
they're still entertaining to watch, and they were Look, they
were ahead of the you know, they led the Bills
thirty two to thirty one in the fourth quarter of
that game at Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
They did.
Speaker 5 (09:28):
They've just had I mean, obviously we need to keep
an eye on the Mayfield injury.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
That's going to be big this week.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
They've just had a I mean, look, they had to
go play the La Rams in Los Angeles. I believe,
they played Detroit in Detroit, they had to play Buffalo
in Buffalo. They've had a ridiculously hard schedule, you know,
or they would be in a little bit better shape
than now right now. I don't think anybody expecting them
to be in a position where after five weeks or
six weeks where all of a sudden, the Carolina Panthers
(09:56):
are the team that's freathing down their necks, which is
you know, kind of hard to find them.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Like you said, don't think Carolina is a good team,
but if.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
Mayfield it isn't back and healthy, in very short order,
that division becomes more wide open.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Yeah, a little up for grabs real quick. Before we
dig into the game, specifically Survivor. You write about Circus
Survivor a lot.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
It's a tough week. I mean, they all are if
you're still alive.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
And I know it's funny because we're me and a
buddy are alive in a good one out here in
LA and it's like, oh boy, you know, what do
we pick and who do we go with?
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Now?
Speaker 3 (10:30):
The one in Vegas is way more difficult because you
have to pick a Thanksgiving Day game and the games
are good. I think everybody was kind of saving the
Ravens or Eagles for the spot.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Is that how I read it.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
I think they were saving the Ravens or are trying
to save the Ravens and the Eagles for the spot
if they could, you know what, depending you know, there
were a couple of weeks where there was just an
absolute ton of carnage.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
I think Week five was one of those weeks. There
was one. Maybe it was Week eight or nine. But
there's been a couple of weeks where there's just been
a boatload of.
Speaker 5 (11:00):
Carnage in this contest. And because of that, some of
these some people may have had to if they had
multiple entries. For example, a lot of people do have
multiple entries in this contest, by the way, and they
may have had.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
To use up teams.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
I mean, you really got to look ahead to that
Thanksgiving week because you got to play two of the
week of Thanksgiving.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
You've got to make two picks the week of Christmas
as well.
Speaker 5 (11:18):
But if they were able to save them, you know,
they got to feel pretty good about this. They certainly
won't mind having the Eagles at home against the Bears
on Friday. That would that would that would be a
popular pick. And you know, the Ravens are going to
be you know in the in the you know, touchdown
range or so or whatever it is against the against
the Bengals, but Packers lines could be should be a
(11:39):
really good game. Chiefs, Cowboys, both those teams really need
to win. If Joe Burrows playing Thursday night, that I mean,
that suddenly becomes a much more interesting game.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
So it is.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
It's gonna be hard at Sercher survivor you got to
do one of those four, either one team from the
Thanksgiving Day games or one from from Black Friday when
the Bears and Eagles play. So it's gonna be to
see how the shape. And you've got to come back,
and you've got to pick either the Sunday game or
the a Sunday game. It'side a team on Sunday or
a team on Monday Night. And that's it's gonna be
(12:10):
interesting to see if if there's some uh, if there's
some carnage this week based on having to make two picks,
it certainly makes it challenging for the logic that goes
into it, the game theory that goes into deciding who
to play where and when. It gets a lot more
difficult this week.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
I'm assuming in a traditional one, people would be looking
at the Chargers in this spot and at home against
the Raiders, and I would guess, maybe Miami, can you
do that? Or is that too risky? The Saints off
a brutal loss. The Saints are terrible. It looks like
Kamara is not gonna go. But can you trust Miami
in any way, shape or form. I mean, who knows
(12:47):
what those guys were doing in South Beach on the
bye week.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, exactly. I don't know if I trust Miami.
Speaker 5 (12:53):
I mean you, like I said, people are going to
be in a position where they're gonna have to probably
trust Miami. They have, you know, used their bullet on
some of these other teams earlier in the season based
on the way some of these weeks have played out.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
I mean, the Chargers is probably you know, the perceived
no brain or the week that's the second largest spread
of the week.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
Seattle is the largest.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
It was ten, right and then it was ten and
then it's down to nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
Is that accurate at on on the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Chargers.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Yeah, yes, they're down to nine and a half now.
Speaker 5 (13:24):
And I'm double checking the Openers, and it depends on
where you were at the super book. For example, here
in Las Vegas, open nine and a half went to
ten very quickly, within like a few minutes, within a
few minutes on Sunday, and then peeled back to nine
and a half on Monday.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
So a little jockeying there between nine.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Here's the thing that is that just a number grab
of the double digits or is that sharp money seeing something.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I think it's it might be a combination of both. Okay,
and a lot of sharp betters play numbers. They're not
even looking at teams. I've heard some of these guys say, Hey,
it's not so much the team, it's the number that
I'm that I'm looking to get. So I think it
may have been a combination of both. For some betters,
they were like, Okay, that's that's perfect. I don't want to,
(14:06):
you know, I feel like ten is a number I
can or I'll take the dog, and maybe nine and
a half for whatever reason, is the number where they
won't where maybe they'll take the favorite. But it's it
was probably a little both. Might have been a numbers game,
might have been a team thing. Maybe they think Las
Vegas kind of holds it together this week and just
keeps it close in a division game, but boy, that
(14:27):
team has just not looked good.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
And I wouldn't.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
I've written this a couple of times and said it
on a couple of other podcasts and such that I've
been on. I wouldn't bet the Raiders with your money
at all. No, I don't even care what the spread is.
I wouldn't bet the rating for your money.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
But the Chargers.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
If you've got the Chargers, you certainly want to try
to use them this week. I'm a little surprised that
Seattle is double digits now.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
It looks like against Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
I don't think anybody has them left to you.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
I don't think so either. No, but if you've got
the Chargers, I feel pretty good about that. Vegas has
been terrible and the Chargers know they need to get
it together now if they you know, if Denver's got
this crazy win streak going, my Denver Broncos is a
helmet behind me shows Oh yeah, smoking mirrors. I'm not
buying it. But I'm glad they are where they are.
I'm very happy with this. But I look at the
(15:11):
schedule and I think if they get to twelve wins,
that'll be a good season.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
So that's only three more wins away.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
They've got a tough road to go down the next
several weeks to get there, including games against the Chargers,
and the Chiefs sent a couple of key road games
and so forth. So yeah, if you got the Chargers,
if I had the Chargers, I'd be playing the Chargers
this weekend.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live real quick Thanksgiving games. I like Green Bay
getting three if you can.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
The most of them are gone, although it looks like
maybe it's headed back to the Lions have a lot
of injuries and Patrick, you look at the Lions' schedule,
they play any good teams in the last like seven weeks. No,
their wins are over a lot of backup quarterbacks. I mean,
they struggled against Jamis Winston last week. I just I
don't know if I see it. And I think this
Packers defense is the best unit on the field. So
(16:08):
I took the points. I don't love ticket two and
a half. I probably should just take the money line.
I think Packers can win this out right.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
I think they probably can and what they've seen it,
I mean, the line certainly says that this should be
a really a really good game. And I agree with
you down the Packers defense. That is a really good defense.
I just literally before I got on the podcast with
you today, Jason, I went back and forth with Casey Degnen.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
He's the risk manager here in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
At the super Book, which is certainly why they respected book,
and they've been kind of they've had this little dance
going between three, two and a half and three, and
they're actually three here at the super Book. And what
Casey Degnan said was we took some sharp money at
two and a half on the Lions. He said, ticket
count is about two to one in favor of the Lions. However,
and again this is early. A ton more money is
(16:54):
going to get bet into this game by the time
we get to Thanksgiving Day morning here in the best
time zone with me and you and you know, afternoon
out east. But he did say more money on the
Packers so far.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
On the spread.
Speaker 5 (17:06):
He said he doesn't think this is going to turn
into like a one way game. He thinks both teams
will get plenty of action. However, he notes that they
think they'll still be more lines tickets by kickoff, and
Troy more importantly is going to be in a lot
of parlays and a lot of money line parlays and
so forth.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Money line parlays are kind of.
Speaker 5 (17:22):
The thing that every week the bookmakers have to beat,
you have to beat the public on these money line
parlays where they just pile up favorites and hope to
bet a little to win a lot, right, And the
Lions are going to be in the money line parlays
for sure, so more than likely they're gonna they're gonna
want the Packers to not only cover, they're gonna want
the package to win that game out right, and they
get that right out of the gate on Thursday. It's
(17:43):
a total table center for the rest of the day
for the bookmakers, and it kind of ruins everything on
our side of the counter as we all have to
reconfigure what we may want to do with the with
the second and third.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Games Chasing Baby.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
So let me ask you, so just to recap, you
said more tickets on the Lions, but money on the Packers.
Speaker 5 (18:01):
Yes, sir, interesting, Yeah, that's the that's on the spread.
What will be the difference maker though, like I noted,
is money line parlays. Detroit is going to be very
popular there, so super book and I'm sure a lot
of the national you know, the Fandels and DraftKings of
the World and bet and jams and such, they'll probably
want that too. They'll want to see the Packers find
a way to win that game on the road.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Yeah, I don't. I haven't seen any update on Jacobs.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I'm assuming they held him out last week so he
could play in this one, and they'll need him because
I mean that Lion's defense is just not great.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I mean, I know it's good, but the secondary is
banged up. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
So I'm on Packers, Chiefs Cowboys is interesting and looks
like this has come down a lot. What I don't
like is that the Cowboys appear to be a public dog.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
Is that a fair statement.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
I think it's fair to say they were certainly a
public dog last week. Yeah, very very public dog against
the Eagles, and come Bay made everybody's day. I took
them in game while they were for I should have
taken them while they were way down, but I was like,
I'm not taking them. Whll, they're way down. I took
them when they were down a touchdown and I thought,
I'm dead in the water.
Speaker 4 (19:01):
This is not happening.
Speaker 5 (19:02):
But it ultimately happened, and anybody who took Dallas on
the spread obviously was very happy with that as well.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Yeah, this has come down some.
Speaker 5 (19:08):
If you go back to last week, Jason, the look
aheadline was Chiefs three and a half and then it
went to four for a few days, and then when
they came back and reopened this game on Sunday, it
was Chiefs three and a half. Now we're down to
three Dallas's plus three even money Chiefs or minus three
minus one sixteen. That's from the super book And again
(19:29):
with Casey Degna and the risk manager there at the
super Book, he noted in this one more tickets and
money on the Chiefs spread a money line which surprised
me a little. I do think there's going to be
some comeback on Dallas here based on what happened last week,
and that's how Degnet expects this to unfold as well.
He said, with Dallas winning last week, he thinks both
sides are going to see a lot of support here.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
And really what's been the.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
More interesting I guess maybe not more interesting, but what's
gotten more action is the total on this.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
It's up one and a half points.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
It's out to fifty two from fast fifteen and a
half open fifty two points and Kate Degnana said, hey,
I don't see that stopping. He said, straight bet and
parlay liability is going to be on the over in
that game, and he's already seeing it even though we're
early in the we were still two days out and
people aren't really necessarily focused in on these games yet,
they're already seeing the liability stack up on the over here.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
But he thinks this is going to be a good
two way game.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
And what he said was, you know, the Cowboys do
tend to get a lot of public action, as you noted,
and as we discussed super trendy dog against the Eagles
last week, and you know, very fortuitous to get there.
He thinks in this case though, they'll want the Cowboys
because he thinks the Chiefs will probably be involved in
more of the parlays, if not the straight bets, and
(20:41):
so they wouldn't mind seeing the Cowboys get another outright
win as a home underdog.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
Yeah, I did get over fifty two. You said it's
open to fifty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Yeah, fifty two.
Speaker 5 (20:52):
No, it went from fifty and a half to fifty
two at super book hasn't gone to fifty two and
a half yet.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
So it's interesting because you look at the Cowboys on
the road. Now, some of these are outside, but they
did not look good outdoors. At Jacksonville. I know they
led that game, but they ultimately lost the pick six hurt.
They went outdoors to Buffalo lost, they went outdoors to
Denver lost, and then they came home against Indy and
did not look great.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
Didn't cover.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
I mean, you got to go back to beating Marcus
Mariota or was it Jayden Daniels Maybe I forget who
was a quarterback in that game, But like their last
two covers were against the Raiders and Commanders, I just
I don't think the Chiefs are as good as everybody thinks.
I do worry about the Dallas defense, but you gotta
be honest, that front seven has some dudes.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Now. Yeah, and that was.
Speaker 5 (21:38):
One thing I saw pointed out elsewhere as I was
looking over some notes earlier today.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
You know, oh, I know what it was. It was a.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Sharp better I go back and forth with pretty regularly,
and in fact, he makes a pick each week in
my midweek NFL Midweek report that's up on Fox Sports.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
It'll be up on Wednesday at some.
Speaker 5 (21:57):
Point, and they say he's random McKay, really good guy,
smart guy, and that's a game he's on. He is
on the under. He got to fifty two and a
half somewhere, and he's on that. But he noted exactly
what you said about Dallas' defense. He said, Casey isn't
as explosive a tea as explosive a team. They score
with long clock consuming drives, which is why he's on
the under. But he said he likes Dallas's defense. He said,
(22:20):
Dallas is greatly improved on defense with the additions it's
made and getting used to everflus and the defense and
make everflues, coaching the defense and the adjustments and so forth.
He really does like Dallas's defense, to your points, So
that could be a stumbling block for Casey, and Casey's
had really a stumbling block of a season, to be honest.
They were very lucky to get out of Week twelve
with a win over the Colt Bengals Ravens.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
The night game not as exciting as we wait for
Burrow being official. Let's say Burrow becomes official. What do
you think this drops too?
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Four and a half?
Speaker 5 (22:50):
That's a good question the way that Casey Digne described
it again here in Vegas at the super Book.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
They first off, the look.
Speaker 5 (22:56):
Aheadline on this game last week was eleven and a
half and it went to ten and a half. That
was that was all they did, eleven and a half,
ten and a half, and they probably got down to
ten and a half based on people assuming that Burrow
was going to come back to play on Thursday night.
They reopened on Sunday at seven and a half, went
to seven, then to six and a half, seven, six
and a half. There's been a little battle over the
first couple of days of the week between seven and
(23:18):
six and a half on this game, and Degnan's expectation
is that Burrow is going to play. He said, right now,
more on the Bengals is coming in on the spread.
But he noted some of that was the look aheadline
from last week where you could get double digits if
you did that, well, very good on you. You're getting
the very best of the number. And he said he
thinks there's something. He knows there's something from Sunday when
the line was still at seven and a half. There's
(23:39):
really nothing too significant on Cincinnati at seven or six
and a half, but there was something there because it
got the super Book and others to move down to
seven and even six and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
So they maybe seven play.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, so maybe the seven bakes in Burrow already.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
I feel like it does. I don't think it gets
down to four and a half.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
I mean, maybe go to six possibly, regardless what Dagnan said,
We're still going to need the Bengals, and more likely
they're going to need the Bengals to win out right.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
So the Ravens money line parlays, and if.
Speaker 5 (24:09):
This number stays in that six, six and a half
seven range, the teasers come into play, Jason, So he said,
with Ravens money line parlays and teasers, and especially if
both the early favorites win, even if they don't cover,
if Kansas City wins, if Detroit wins, he said, they'll
be certainly looking for the Bengals to win out right
in what they think is going to be the return
(24:29):
of Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Yeah, so my other read and I haven't really seen
people talk about this yet because it's you know, Burrow
waiting Thanksgiving all that stuff. But next week the Ravens
host the Steelers. That is kind of for the division.
It is a massive, enormous game.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
It's easy. I know the Bengals are in.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
The division in their rivalry game, but they stink they're
not going to the playoffs, They're I don't know how
many guys in the Ravens locker room are like, oh, Bengals, Yeah,
we got to focus on the worst defense in the league.
Or are they already thinking about hosting Pittsburgh next week
in a game where they can take over first place.
I just I know that that doesn't really mean much,
But psychologically, I'm of the belief that people do get
(25:08):
caught looking ahead.
Speaker 5 (25:09):
If you will, oh, I think I think they do
get caught looking ahead. And this is a situation where
you're also working on a short week and looking and
potentially looking ahead. You don't have as much time to
get ready for the Bengals. You know, Burdle comes back
if you know, if he's healthy, and you know at
least you know, close to.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
One hundred percent. We all know he's a fantastic quarterback.
Speaker 5 (25:28):
So it could be a you know, sort of a
sort of a you could I could see why people
would think this is kind of a trap spot potentially
for the Ravens to look ahead spot where they know
they've got this massive game against the Steelers. But that's
not going to keep the public off Baltimore, especially at
the moneyline parleys. They're going to be riding the Ravens
in that five game winning streak, and and if they
I mean, I know, I got a twenty five to
(25:48):
one Ravens super Bowl ticket when they when.
Speaker 4 (25:50):
They were falling a part early in the season. So
and I wasn't alone. It's not like it was a
sharp play or anything.
Speaker 5 (25:56):
I'm sure a lot of people saw some numbers that
were kind of attractive and thought, gosh, if Lamar Jackson
could just come back and play reasonably well. And now
we've got a five game win streak and they're right on.
You know, they've got Pittsburgh right where they want them basically,
So I kind of hope they're dialed in. But I
really just hope we see a really good game. That
would be nice too.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Eagles are seven point favorites against the Bears that I'm
sure some people thought that was a big number initially.
Bears are eight and three little smoking mirrors with the
turnovers and the comebacks. I want to take the Eagles here,
but seven, I mean, Philly's had some problems against the
spread this season.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
I don't I know, there is probably a stay away
from me.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
I don't think the Bears are great, but I can
see them like scratching and clawing and losing twenty four to.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Twenty or something.
Speaker 5 (26:42):
Sure, I think I could see a game unfolding like that,
especially with what we've seen from the Eagles over the
past few weeks. I mean, they did, look, to their credit,
they beat the Bears and Allions, two of the better
teams in the NFC, and two teams that are also
like the Eagles high up in the Super Bowl odds.
But in those two games combined twenty six points, and
then they get a big old lead against Dallas and
(27:03):
let Dallas come back and win that game. I mean,
obviously Dallas should get some credit there, but still the
Eagles should have won that game. That should not have
happened to a defending Super Bowl champion with the talent
that team has.
Speaker 4 (27:15):
So I would be super wary of the Eagles.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
And what Casey Degnet again here in talent super said,
this number has been steady at seven, but the Eagles
are minus seven even money, which tells you then this
could be headed.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Towards six and a half and a half exactly.
Speaker 5 (27:32):
So if you want to get the Bears plus seven
you're paying minus won sixteen juice, so you got to
pay a little bit of a premium there to get
seven points with the Bears. It tells you also that
this is probably not going to seven and a half.
And what Casey said about the game, he said early,
not a whole lot of action yet. I think more people,
if they are focused right now, they're looking at those
three Thanksgiving Day games. But this is going to get
bet really well. And by the way, backing up really quickly,
(27:54):
I've heard a couple of different odds makers and I
don't mean to throw this back to the Cowboys Chiefs,
but they think that might be the most bet game
of the regular season.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
Wow.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
They are expecting big handle on that. And I've heard
that from from Tom Gable, who works out of Borgada
Sports it's the bet MGM property in New Jersey, and
also from John Murray, who runs the super book here
in Las Vegas. They both expect really high handle for
that Chiefs Cowboys game. And I mean to go backwards there,
but what Casey said is early in the week on
(28:22):
Bears Eagles, more Bears action, but not too much in
the pot right now, nothing really too significant. But he
noted with the Eagles lay in seven, it's kind of
a similar situation as it is with the Ravens. You
got to stay a total standalone game. Granted it's not
in prime time, but it's a standalone game. He said.
Our best case is going to be the Bears winning
(28:43):
this outright because all the money line parlays and the teasers,
the six point teasers and so forth are going to
run to Philadelphia on Friday.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio search FSR to listen live.
Speaker 3 (29:03):
I did just have to look up Ben Johnson his
last meeting against the Eagles. It was the season opener
in twenty twenty two and the Lions scored thirty five
on the Eagles defense. That was a good Eagles team. Obviously,
not that has good of a defense. But I firmly
believe Ben Jonson'll be able to move the ball here
with Kleb running, Yeah, it'd be an interesting game. I'm
(29:25):
not taking the Bears or anything, but we'll see Sunday.
Not a lot of great games. I do want to
circle Niners, Browns that line is cratering. It looks like
the weather is going to be in the thirties with
sixty chances of snow, rain and wind.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Is that why this has gone down from was it
seven to four and a half?
Speaker 5 (29:45):
It's so there may have been some sevens out there
to open I'm double checking. It looks like most thoughts
were six and a half. The Superbook was definitely six
and a half here in Las Vegas. And look, I
think the weather is a little bit of a factor here.
The super Bowl has gotten as low as four and
a half, very briefly so, but there was and Casey
(30:07):
Degnant told me this. There was sharp money on the
Browns at plus six and a half on Monday, and
that got them down to five and a half, and
really just a few minutes after that they even went
to five, then then went back to five and a
half six and then a little spend a little bit
of time a cup of coffee on Tuesday at four
and a half, but then pretty quickly went to five
and then five and a half again.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
I would say that this is not getting back to six.
Speaker 5 (30:30):
And I think to your point, the weather is partially
a factor, but there has definitely been some sharp money
on the Browns when that was at six and a half,
which is the high points so far this week.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
So I'm sure everybody remembers the last time brock perty
was in Cleveland the Niners. I'm pretty sure that was
the game Trent Williams VISs. Niners were undefeated and they
could do nothing. Now here's the real thing. Who is
the quarterback of the Browns?
Speaker 2 (30:52):
I could give them?
Speaker 3 (30:53):
Probably I would not have guessed this in fifteen guesses
somebody named Philip Walker. I don't even know who that is.
But the box scores joing Philip Walker through two picks
for the Browns. They still won, exactly because Party was
terrible and could they couldn't keep him up right?
Speaker 2 (31:06):
And I just wonder, can Miles Garrett wreck this game?
Speaker 3 (31:10):
I mean, he's on pace to break the all time
sack record and the Browns defense at home does not
give up the run. Christian McCaffrey last time in Cleveland
eleven carries forty three yards. I'm worried about the Niners here.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
I would be worried about the Niners in this spot.
The Niners.
Speaker 5 (31:24):
You know, I don't feel like like I said, I
feel like my Denver Broncos or smoking Mirs. I don't
think the Niners are necessarily smoking mirs, but just the
injury situation and Perty seems to be having some trouble
with his throws.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
He certainly didn't look.
Speaker 5 (31:37):
Good for a good chunk of Monday night, even though
in week twelve, even though the forty nine ers got there,
I'd be worried about it, especially if it's if it's
bad weather and that defense. If I recall correctly, the
Browns had a great We're talking about the Raiders here,
who are really bad. Like I said, I wouldn't bet
the Raiders with your bunny, but they had ten sacks
in that game. Ten sacks, I mean, that's just like
(32:01):
mind blowing, and Garrett had three of them.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
To your point about the season he's having, I.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Would not be too enthused to take the Niners this week.
I just I feel like that there's probably a stay
away game, even if it even if it's somehow got
back on to four and a half, or they say
the weather it's just going to be even more terrible
than they expect it and it gets lower. I just
feel like that's a game I wouldn't want to mess
with unless you could still get six and a half
with that Browns defense in terrible weather, Yeah, then.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
You got to smash it. But four and a half
is low because again we're talking. We didn't mention shud
Or Sanders, and I know the Niners defense ain't great,
but I'll tell you this, Robert Sala against a rookie
quarterback making is second start. I'm going to take Sala
nine times out of ten in that matchup. Let's see,
is there anything else Sunday that jumps out at you?
Speaker 5 (32:46):
Well, a couple of other things that the Casey Degnant
bounced off me I can run through the Roe.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
Yeah, yeah, let's hear it.
Speaker 5 (32:51):
So Colts Texans, that's a Texans. I think it's Texans
at Colts. That went from Colts three and a half
to four and a half. And Casey Degnant said there
was some respected action on three and a half on
Sunday minus three and a half on the Colts. But
obviously the Texans with that defense, they're going to be
They're going to be live.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
And you know, we don't know the whole CJ.
Speaker 5 (33:12):
Stroud situation CD Stroud situation yet, but that's one where
they saw a sharp respective play on Indianapolis early Bill Steelers.
That's just going to be a really well bet game.
And what Casey David said about he said early tickets
are about even slightly more money on the Bills. But
he noted that by the time we get to kickoff Sunday,
he said, I'll be surprised if we don't need the Steelers.
(33:33):
They'll probably want the Steelers outright, because the Bills are
probably going to be in the money line parlays and such.
But certainly he thinks they're going to want the Steelers
to cover come Sunday. That's a really good one. And
then he just noted that because of the spreads in
the Sunday and Monday night games being in that touchdown range,
the Broncos at the Commanders, Broncos laying a touchdown ish
and then the Giants at the Patriots. He's like, listen,
(33:56):
if the favorites have a good day on Sunday, and
really even if they start with the Thursday and Friday games,
but if the favorites have a good day on Sunday,
gonna they're really gonna need either the Commanders or the
Giants to jump up and pulling out right up set
on Sunday night or Monday night to knock out the
parlays and the teasers.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Good luck with that. It's funny. I just noticed that
you're right.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So you know, I had a losing week last week,
but to bounce back, I always look for layups, you know,
like a jump shooter misses like eight in a row.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Hey, man, k's got to get a layup. Just see
the ball go through the hoop.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Yep, exactly.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
You're right.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
That Sunday night Broncos teased down to win by at
win by one, and then Patriots teased down to win
by you know, one and a half, and that seems
like an easy one. I will say, I know people
don't like big numbers, but Seattle and Sam Donald against
the Vikings in what is potentially a revenge spot for
Sam Donald, that team, that Seattle team loves Darnald. Remember
(34:51):
he had the four picks against the ramsay all defended him.
And Seattle has really taken some teams behind the woodshed
at home this year. Saints Arizona. I wouldn't be shocked
if they just said, hey, Sam, put it on him.
We're still throwing up thirty to nothing. You know that
kind of deal, because it doesn't sound like McCarthy's going
to go right, even though he's terrible.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
Yeah, I mean if he goes or not, I'm not
sure it necessarily matters.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
And this number is to shot up.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
This is what are you seeing now.
Speaker 5 (35:17):
The super book opened eight on Sunday evening, went to
eight and a half within like half an hour very
early Monday, to nine, and then nine and a half
ten and a half, So they were at ten and
a half by basically Monday afternoon Eastern time, late Monday
morning here in the best time zone. So the betters
are certainly riding Seattle and expecting them to show well.
(35:39):
And like you said, it's a tremendous spot for Darnold.
I'm sure he wants to show.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
That you could have paid me the wrong decision. Yeah,
you could have paid him.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
That battle did not cover though against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
So I wonder if some people back off and it's
actually an opportunity to maybe lay it with another double digits.
I think you write in your column that you for
is inside of the you don't ever a bet double digits? Well,
what about rams at Panthers? I mean, did you see
the mass unit. The Panthers were on Monday Night football.
Now they got a short.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
Week going home.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
I think MCVII is like something like, you know, ninety
seven and four against the spread in the UH in
the one pm window. He just his teams travel so
well to the East coast. The Panthers have so many injuries.
Listen if j C warn kick O, if McMillan is
really banged up, I think two guys on the offensive line.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
They're so beat up. How do they stop the Rams?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (36:31):
How does anybody stop the Rams? At this point, Matt
Stafford's having a great season. Rams are now the favorite
in Super Bowl odds. I believe Stafford is a favorite
in MVP odds. They're just having a tremendous year. And
every time they're anywhere near the end zone of devont
Adams is catching touchdown.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
So that's that's a tough call.
Speaker 5 (36:49):
I'm with you on how well that team can travel
and go on the road and win games and so forth.
But if you had me say which double digit favorite
anim I gonna take in Week thirteen, I'd probably go
with the you know, ten and a half, It looks
like the Rams for ten and a half as well,
I'd probably go with Seattle at home.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
That offense, when it clicks.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
It's really really good, and I would feel a little
more comfortable with that. I think the Rams will win,
of course, but if I've got a late ten and
a half with either the Rams or the Seahawks, I'll
take the Seahawks at home and let the Rams be.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
We could wrap up with this one.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
Is the Dolphins minus six against the Saints the biggest
trap on the board.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
I mean, the Miami Dolphins are six point favorites.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Patrick, you say that out loud, like what this team
was supposed to fire their coach like four weeks ago,
exactly exactly.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
And not only that, this was a you know, last
week on the look aheadline at the super Book, it was.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Five Miami and then went down to four and a half.
Speaker 5 (37:47):
But then they came back on Sunday reopened it five
and a half and the first move was up to six.
I for me, that would be a total stayaway game
because I just feel like there's something off there. Miami
just doesn't have the consistency to say, Okay, if I
lay the six, is Minami going to win by seven?
I mean this you feel like some of these teams
(38:07):
against the you know, against the Saints, should be able
to you know, pick their score basically. But the Saints
are big competitive in some games and managed to cover
in some games and won a couple of games people
didn't expect him to win.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
So I would just be leaving this alone.
Speaker 5 (38:21):
It feels trappy, even though unless, like you said, perhaps
for Survivor, where all you got to do is win
the game, don't have to cover the number, or if
you teases down or whatever. But I would I would
consider Miami for Survivor if you don't have better options,
But I'm not sure I would lay the six.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
Okay, all right?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Patrick Everson, he's at Vegas Insider, Fox sports dot com.
I mean, he's got amazing content, Patrick. I have a
wonderful Thanksgiving man, keep up the great work.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Absolutely.
Speaker 5 (38:47):
I appreciate you having me on and you and your
family have a great Thanksgiving as well.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
Good luck,
This is straight Fire with Jason MacIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, straight Fire Fire?
Speaker 3 (00:13):
It's me Jason MacIntyre, straight for your for Wednesday, November
the twenty sixth. A happy early Thanksgiving to all the
straight Fire listeners. Obviously, I'm very thankful for you guys
keeping this podcast going. We are now on four plus years.
I think the spring will be five years. Just amazing.
(00:34):
Very thankful for you guys to deliver the download, share
it like it, give me reviews. I don't really ask
for that a lot. I know a lot of other
podcasts do that, and that's like a hack. Hey, guys,
unsubscribe and then subscribe. Everybody do it on Tuesday at noon.
Apparently that's what some of the big podcasts do. I
don't really care to do that. I'm sure the iheartfolks
would love it if I did more of that. It
(00:55):
just feels cheesy and I'm just gonna deliver and you
guys don't like it, or you won't, you know, I mean,
I at some point you got to just hope that
the product delivers. And I feel like we are if
we're not, trust me, I hear about it from you guys.
So a special Thanksgiving edition. We brought on Patrick Everson,
outstanding voice in the gambling space. He's at ground zero
(01:17):
in Vegas, talks to all the bookmakers, knows where the
big money is, knows where the head fakes are, knows
where the public weak money is.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
So we talk about all that.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
For the Thanksgiving games and beyond, I will be with
the family, trying to not focus too much on the sports.
Obviously Thursday and Friday it's stuff, not too but just
try to unplug for a little bit, if you will.
And it's weird because this is a great time, like
November is my favorite sports month of the year. You
get primo college basketball, although that's a little diluted this year,
(01:49):
even though the talent is off the charts.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
The tournaments are wacky.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
You get meaningful college football, you get obviously NFL headed
toward the playoffs. You get a lot of NBA action.
But unfortunately we're just going to basically keep this one
to the NFL. I'm not going to really dig into this.
You know, college football ranks, and it didn't really seem
like anything happened. Oregon goes ahead of Old Miss after
(02:15):
beating USC, but it doesn't really matter. Old Miss is
gonna be fine if it beats the Mississippi State and
the Egg Bowl. Now, if Lane leaves, I cannot imagine
they win that game and he leaves. If they lose,
maybe Lane walks away and it's like, I'm going we're
not going to the playoff. But if they win and
he leaves, that would be unprecedented. They're a one loss team.
(02:36):
They had one bad quarter against Georgia and they gave
up twenty one points and lost the game. Other than that,
they're a contender. I mean, it's Ohio State and everybody's
kind of battling after that.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
But who knows.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Ohio State went in last year to Michigan with I'm
sorry no, the game was at home.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
They had a loaded roster. They're running backs.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Last year Ohio States were Judkins and Henderson. They're both
studs in the NFL. Starters this year, okay, their wide
receiver room was Abukah Jeremiah Smith and the wide receiver tape.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Folks like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Abuka was like contending for Rookie the Year in the
NFL and they scored ten points. So the wacky things
happened in that game. Obviously, I think ohast, it's better.
I have zero college football bets on this podcast. I
will tell you about three that I made. This is
all I've got so far in college football. Penn State
minus twelve, Virginia Tech plus ten and a half, Louisiana
(03:30):
Monroe plus ten and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
I obviously will get down more. I'll post those on
IG stories.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
It's just it's a rough week and I don't have
any NFL locks survivor you. We'll talk about it with Patrick. Yeah,
it's a crazy week, and obviously I don't. I say
I'm gonna unplug, and then I say look for my
picks on Instagram. You know, that's just dumb, but that's
the reality. That's where we are until I finalized this newsletter,
which is close or I'm just gonna put all my
(03:57):
picks there and you guys will know it.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
I'm not going to promote it. You just know to
go there and get those.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
My hope is the second week in December we start
to put the plays on there and I'll have breakdowns, actually,
because that's what I used to do at Fox digitally,
but not doing that anymore. It's just a lot of
work now. If you're doing it for yourself. That's a
different story, all right, without further ado, Patrick Everson from
Foxsports dot Com.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
He's at Vegas Insider.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Everybody have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
I know what sports fans want.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
But for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows the
guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome back
to straight fire Man.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
This guy's as plugged in as anybody on the ground
in Vegas.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
I know.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Listen, some of these guests don't like it when I
gas him up. But Patrick Everson's been doing the some
of the best stuff out of Vegas for the last
few years. He got snatched up by Fox. He's at
the better collective. He's ever everywhere. Patrick, How you doing, man,
I'm very.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
Good, Jason. Thanks a lot for having me on the
podcast this week.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, yeah, I know you're super busy, so we won't
take up too much of your time. But I've had
a history with Thanksgiving week. I always struggle. I'm sure
other people talk about this. There's just so much happening
with travel, family, you know, logistics, you got kids home
from college. My wife, if she asks me to even
touch a turkey, I'm like totally rattled. I'm like just
(05:27):
out of my domain of expertise. I can't handle the
So it's like the NFL makes it tough. So we're
recording this Tuesday afternoon. There's three potentially great games. Thursday,
there's a crazy game Friday Bears Eagles, and then you
got the full Sunday slate. You got family, you got
just a lot going on. I'm curious, how do you
handle this week in working with the casinos and getting
(05:49):
down bets yourself.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Well, like you said, it's definitely challenging.
Speaker 5 (05:53):
You get the triple header on Thanksgiving Day, so you know,
back to back to back, and like you said, there's
turkey in the oven and stuff in game made and
all that other stuff.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
And got my son's home for the week. We've got
two dogs in the house. It's a rat race around here.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
So uh no, look, it is a little uh it
makes it a little more challenging to get the bookmaker's
perspective because the week kind of caves in on them
as well. And the one thing that you know, I
feel like I get to do a lot of the
fun stuff in this industry, and that's talking to the
folks behind the counter and having them tell me, you know,
explain why things are happening, where the money is coming in,
where the sharp guys are, where are the public people
(06:30):
like me and perhaps like you, and you know what
they're what their needs are going to be.
Speaker 4 (06:35):
But the week caves in on them really quickly too.
Speaker 5 (06:37):
You know, some of them are traveling, some of them
are you know, so there's they might be short staff
this week. So it's it definitely makes it a challenge
for everybody involved, the content side, the bookmaker side, uh,
the podcast side with you, like, yeah, it's everybody's everybody's
up against the up against the clock this week.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
And let's be real, Patrick, you look around and it's
like quarterbacks around the league. You don't know who's as
of right now, there's so many injuries. Jordan Love separated shoulder. Patrick,
I watch video. He didn't hand off with his left
hand on Sunday, and now he's got to go into
Detroit and face Hutchison a company. We still don't have
full clarity and if Joe Burrow is going to start
we think he is, but the line isn't really acting
(07:17):
like it.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
CJ.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
Stroud expected back maybe for the Texans, I don't know,
so I am curious around the league with the quarterback stuff.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
How do you handle that?
Speaker 4 (07:27):
Well, that's it's.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
It's the same as as you would or certainly the public,
certainly the Sharper betters are all over. It's it's all
about that, you know, when the information gets there and
how soon you can bet it. If you're trying to
beat it, if you're trying to beat a number or
get a better number. It's definitely going to be a
challenge this week, I feel like. I mean, just from
the conversations I've had with a couple of oddsmakers this week,
(07:49):
they feel pretty comfortable that Burrow is going to play thirsty. Okay,
I kind of thought that when Cincinnati didn't win last
week that might tilt the tape the other way. I mean,
they're they really I don't think he can get to
the playoffs if they had one last week. With the
way that the AFC North has played out, I was like.
Speaker 4 (08:10):
Okay, you can't. You can't give up yet.
Speaker 5 (08:12):
Your two games behind Baltimore and Baltimore five weeks ago
was one and five, So you know, so why give up?
And I'm not saying they should give up now necessarily.
I just thought maybe they might rethink that. But from
the bookmakers I've talked to, they feel like Burrow is
going to be the guy on the field come Thursday night.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
You make a great point with c. J.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
Stroud, But you know, Davis Mills, I think they're they're
three and oh with him now, aren't they.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Or something like that, and their defense is just lights out.
Their defense is.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Like well too, I think two and well as a defense.
He filled in for Stratt when he got hurt and
they lost that one to Denver. But otherwise you're right,
he's been pretty damn good.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Yeah, well, on the defense he's been.
Speaker 5 (08:46):
He's he's driven the bus and kept it on the road,
and the defense in Houston is just lights out. So
if he can do that with that defense as we saw, uh,
you know, last week against the Bills, then you know
they they you know, they may give the Colts some trouble.
Even though the Colts are off to a super super
good start.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
And I didn't even mention Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Do we feel he's going to start this AC joint spring,
because that's a big one for Tampa to try to
hold off Carolina in the division.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
I mean, I don't think Carolina is good, but Teddy
Bridgewater looked horrific.
Speaker 4 (09:15):
I mean, yeah, exactly. Tampa had such a good first
few weeks and they were really entertaining to watch, and
they're still entertaining to watch, and they were Look, they
were ahead of the you know, they led the Bills
thirty two to thirty one in the fourth quarter of
that game at Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
They did.
Speaker 5 (09:28):
They've just had I mean, obviously we need to keep
an eye on the Mayfield injury.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
That's going to be big this week.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
They've just had a I mean, look, they had to
go play the La Rams in Los Angeles. I believe,
they played Detroit in Detroit, they had to play Buffalo
in Buffalo. They've had a ridiculously hard schedule, you know,
or they would be in a little bit better shape
than now right now. I don't think anybody expecting them
to be in a position where after five weeks or
six weeks where all of a sudden, the Carolina Panthers
(09:56):
are the team that's freathing down their necks, which is
you know, kind of hard to find them.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Like you said, don't think Carolina is a good team,
but if.
Speaker 5 (10:02):
Mayfield it isn't back and healthy, in very short order,
that division becomes more wide open.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Yeah, a little up for grabs real quick. Before we
dig into the game, specifically Survivor. You write about Circus
Survivor a lot.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
It's a tough week. I mean, they all are if
you're still alive.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
And I know it's funny because we're me and a
buddy are alive in a good one out here in
LA and it's like, oh boy, you know, what do
we pick and who do we go with?
Speaker 1 (10:30):
Now?
Speaker 3 (10:30):
The one in Vegas is way more difficult because you
have to pick a Thanksgiving Day game and the games
are good. I think everybody was kind of saving the
Ravens or Eagles for the spot.
Speaker 2 (10:41):
Is that how I read it.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
I think they were saving the Ravens or are trying
to save the Ravens and the Eagles for the spot
if they could, you know what, depending you know, there
were a couple of weeks where there was just an
absolute ton of carnage.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
I think Week five was one of those weeks. There
was one. Maybe it was Week eight or nine. But
there's been a couple of weeks where there's just been
a boatload of.
Speaker 5 (11:00):
Carnage in this contest. And because of that, some of
these some people may have had to if they had
multiple entries. For example, a lot of people do have
multiple entries in this contest, by the way, and they
may have had.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
To use up teams.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
I mean, you really got to look ahead to that
Thanksgiving week because you got to play two of the
week of Thanksgiving.
Speaker 4 (11:15):
You've got to make two picks the week of Christmas
as well.
Speaker 5 (11:18):
But if they were able to save them, you know,
they got to feel pretty good about this. They certainly
won't mind having the Eagles at home against the Bears
on Friday. That would that would that would be a
popular pick. And you know, the Ravens are going to
be you know in the in the you know, touchdown
range or so or whatever it is against the against
the Bengals, but Packers lines could be should be a
(11:39):
really good game. Chiefs, Cowboys, both those teams really need
to win. If Joe Burrows playing Thursday night, that I mean,
that suddenly becomes a much more interesting game.
Speaker 4 (11:49):
So it is.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
It's gonna be hard at Sercher survivor you got to
do one of those four, either one team from the
Thanksgiving Day games or one from from Black Friday when
the Bears and Eagles play. So it's gonna be to
see how the shape. And you've got to come back,
and you've got to pick either the Sunday game or
the a Sunday game. It'side a team on Sunday or
a team on Monday Night. And that's it's gonna be
(12:10):
interesting to see if if there's some uh, if there's
some carnage this week based on having to make two picks,
it certainly makes it challenging for the logic that goes
into it, the game theory that goes into deciding who
to play where and when. It gets a lot more
difficult this week.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
I'm assuming in a traditional one, people would be looking
at the Chargers in this spot and at home against
the Raiders, and I would guess, maybe Miami, can you
do that? Or is that too risky? The Saints off
a brutal loss. The Saints are terrible. It looks like
Kamara is not gonna go. But can you trust Miami
in any way, shape or form. I mean, who knows
(12:47):
what those guys were doing in South Beach on the
bye week.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, exactly. I don't know if I trust Miami.
Speaker 5 (12:53):
I mean you, like I said, people are going to
be in a position where they're gonna have to probably
trust Miami. They have, you know, used their bullet on
some of these other teams earlier in the season based
on the way some of these weeks have played out.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 5 (13:07):
I mean, the Chargers is probably you know, the perceived
no brain or the week that's the second largest spread
of the week.
Speaker 4 (13:13):
Seattle is the largest.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
It was ten, right and then it was ten and
then it's down to nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
Is that accurate at on on the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Chargers.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Yeah, yes, they're down to nine and a half now.
Speaker 5 (13:24):
And I'm double checking the Openers, and it depends on
where you were at the super book. For example, here
in Las Vegas, open nine and a half went to
ten very quickly, within like a few minutes, within a
few minutes on Sunday, and then peeled back to nine
and a half on Monday.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
So a little jockeying there between nine.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Here's the thing that is that just a number grab
of the double digits or is that sharp money seeing something.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
I think it's it might be a combination of both. Okay,
and a lot of sharp betters play numbers. They're not
even looking at teams. I've heard some of these guys say, Hey,
it's not so much the team, it's the number that
I'm that I'm looking to get. So I think it
may have been a combination of both. For some betters,
they were like, Okay, that's that's perfect. I don't want to,
(14:06):
you know, I feel like ten is a number I
can or I'll take the dog, and maybe nine and
a half for whatever reason, is the number where they
won't where maybe they'll take the favorite. But it's it
was probably a little both. Might have been a numbers game,
might have been a team thing. Maybe they think Las
Vegas kind of holds it together this week and just
keeps it close in a division game, but boy, that
(14:27):
team has just not looked good.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
And I wouldn't.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
I've written this a couple of times and said it
on a couple of other podcasts and such that I've
been on. I wouldn't bet the Raiders with your money
at all. No, I don't even care what the spread is.
I wouldn't bet the rating for your money.
Speaker 4 (14:39):
But the Chargers.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
If you've got the Chargers, you certainly want to try
to use them this week. I'm a little surprised that
Seattle is double digits now.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
It looks like against Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
I don't think anybody has them left to you.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
I don't think so either. No, but if you've got
the Chargers, I feel pretty good about that. Vegas has
been terrible and the Chargers know they need to get
it together now if they you know, if Denver's got
this crazy win streak going, my Denver Broncos is a
helmet behind me shows Oh yeah, smoking mirrors. I'm not
buying it. But I'm glad they are where they are.
I'm very happy with this. But I look at the
(15:11):
schedule and I think if they get to twelve wins,
that'll be a good season.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
So that's only three more wins away.
Speaker 5 (15:17):
They've got a tough road to go down the next
several weeks to get there, including games against the Chargers,
and the Chiefs sent a couple of key road games
and so forth. So yeah, if you got the Chargers,
if I had the Chargers, I'd be playing the Chargers
this weekend.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Yeah, for sure.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live real quick Thanksgiving games. I like Green Bay
getting three if you can.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
The most of them are gone, although it looks like
maybe it's headed back to the Lions have a lot
of injuries and Patrick, you look at the Lions' schedule,
they play any good teams in the last like seven weeks. No,
their wins are over a lot of backup quarterbacks. I mean,
they struggled against Jamis Winston last week. I just I
don't know if I see it. And I think this
Packers defense is the best unit on the field. So
(16:08):
I took the points. I don't love ticket two and
a half. I probably should just take the money line.
I think Packers can win this out right.
Speaker 5 (16:14):
I think they probably can and what they've seen it,
I mean, the line certainly says that this should be
a really a really good game. And I agree with
you down the Packers defense. That is a really good defense.
I just literally before I got on the podcast with
you today, Jason, I went back and forth with Casey Degnen.
Speaker 4 (16:32):
He's the risk manager here in Vegas.
Speaker 5 (16:34):
At the super Book, which is certainly why they respected book,
and they've been kind of they've had this little dance
going between three, two and a half and three, and
they're actually three here at the super Book. And what
Casey Degnan said was we took some sharp money at
two and a half on the Lions. He said, ticket
count is about two to one in favor of the Lions. However,
and again this is early. A ton more money is
(16:54):
going to get bet into this game by the time
we get to Thanksgiving Day morning here in the best
time zone with me and you and you know, afternoon
out east. But he did say more money on the
Packers so far.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
On the spread.
Speaker 5 (17:06):
He said he doesn't think this is going to turn
into like a one way game. He thinks both teams
will get plenty of action. However, he notes that they
think they'll still be more lines tickets by kickoff, and
Troy more importantly is going to be in a lot
of parlays and a lot of money line parlays and
so forth.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
Money line parlays are kind of.
Speaker 5 (17:22):
The thing that every week the bookmakers have to beat,
you have to beat the public on these money line
parlays where they just pile up favorites and hope to
bet a little to win a lot, right, And the
Lions are going to be in the money line parlays
for sure, so more than likely they're gonna they're gonna
want the Packers to not only cover, they're gonna want
the package to win that game out right, and they
get that right out of the gate on Thursday. It's
(17:43):
a total table center for the rest of the day
for the bookmakers, and it kind of ruins everything on
our side of the counter as we all have to
reconfigure what we may want to do with the with
the second and third.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Games Chasing Baby.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
So let me ask you, so just to recap, you
said more tickets on the Lions, but money on the Packers.
Speaker 5 (18:01):
Yes, sir, interesting, Yeah, that's the that's on the spread.
What will be the difference maker though, like I noted,
is money line parlays. Detroit is going to be very
popular there, so super book and I'm sure a lot
of the national you know, the Fandels and DraftKings of
the World and bet and jams and such, they'll probably
want that too. They'll want to see the Packers find
a way to win that game on the road.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Yeah, I don't. I haven't seen any update on Jacobs.
Speaker 3 (18:23):
I'm assuming they held him out last week so he
could play in this one, and they'll need him because
I mean that Lion's defense is just not great.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
I mean, I know it's good, but the secondary is
banged up. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
So I'm on Packers, Chiefs Cowboys is interesting and looks
like this has come down a lot. What I don't
like is that the Cowboys appear to be a public dog.
Speaker 2 (18:39):
Is that a fair statement.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
I think it's fair to say they were certainly a
public dog last week. Yeah, very very public dog against
the Eagles, and come Bay made everybody's day. I took
them in game while they were for I should have
taken them while they were way down, but I was like,
I'm not taking them. Whll, they're way down. I took
them when they were down a touchdown and I thought,
I'm dead in the water.
Speaker 4 (19:01):
This is not happening.
Speaker 5 (19:02):
But it ultimately happened, and anybody who took Dallas on
the spread obviously was very happy with that as well.
Speaker 4 (19:07):
Yeah, this has come down some.
Speaker 5 (19:08):
If you go back to last week, Jason, the look
aheadline was Chiefs three and a half and then it
went to four for a few days, and then when
they came back and reopened this game on Sunday, it
was Chiefs three and a half. Now we're down to
three Dallas's plus three even money Chiefs or minus three
minus one sixteen. That's from the super book And again
(19:29):
with Casey Degna and the risk manager there at the
super Book, he noted in this one more tickets and
money on the Chiefs spread a money line which surprised
me a little. I do think there's going to be
some comeback on Dallas here based on what happened last week,
and that's how Degnet expects this to unfold as well.
He said, with Dallas winning last week, he thinks both
sides are going to see a lot of support here.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
And really what's been the.
Speaker 5 (19:52):
More interesting I guess maybe not more interesting, but what's
gotten more action is the total on this.
Speaker 4 (19:58):
It's up one and a half points.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
It's out to fifty two from fast fifteen and a
half open fifty two points and Kate Degnana said, hey,
I don't see that stopping. He said, straight bet and
parlay liability is going to be on the over in
that game, and he's already seeing it even though we're
early in the we were still two days out and
people aren't really necessarily focused in on these games yet,
they're already seeing the liability stack up on the over here.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
But he thinks this is going to be a good
two way game.
Speaker 5 (20:21):
And what he said was, you know, the Cowboys do
tend to get a lot of public action, as you noted,
and as we discussed super trendy dog against the Eagles
last week, and you know, very fortuitous to get there.
He thinks in this case though, they'll want the Cowboys
because he thinks the Chiefs will probably be involved in
more of the parlays, if not the straight bets, and
(20:41):
so they wouldn't mind seeing the Cowboys get another outright
win as a home underdog.
Speaker 2 (20:47):
Yeah, I did get over fifty two. You said it's
open to fifty two and a half.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
Yeah, fifty two.
Speaker 5 (20:52):
No, it went from fifty and a half to fifty
two at super book hasn't gone to fifty two and
a half yet.
Speaker 3 (20:56):
So it's interesting because you look at the Cowboys on
the road. Now, some of these are outside, but they
did not look good outdoors. At Jacksonville. I know they
led that game, but they ultimately lost the pick six hurt.
They went outdoors to Buffalo lost, they went outdoors to
Denver lost, and then they came home against Indy and
did not look great.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
Didn't cover.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
I mean, you got to go back to beating Marcus
Mariota or was it Jayden Daniels Maybe I forget who
was a quarterback in that game, But like their last
two covers were against the Raiders and Commanders, I just
I don't think the Chiefs are as good as everybody thinks.
I do worry about the Dallas defense, but you gotta
be honest, that front seven has some dudes.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Now. Yeah, and that was.
Speaker 5 (21:38):
One thing I saw pointed out elsewhere as I was
looking over some notes earlier today.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
You know, oh, I know what it was. It was a.
Speaker 5 (21:46):
Sharp better I go back and forth with pretty regularly,
and in fact, he makes a pick each week in
my midweek NFL Midweek report that's up on Fox Sports.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
It'll be up on Wednesday at some.
Speaker 5 (21:57):
Point, and they say he's random McKay, really good guy,
smart guy, and that's a game he's on. He is
on the under. He got to fifty two and a
half somewhere, and he's on that. But he noted exactly
what you said about Dallas' defense. He said, Casey isn't
as explosive a tea as explosive a team. They score
with long clock consuming drives, which is why he's on
the under. But he said he likes Dallas's defense. He said,
(22:20):
Dallas is greatly improved on defense with the additions it's
made and getting used to everflus and the defense and
make everflues, coaching the defense and the adjustments and so forth.
He really does like Dallas's defense, to your points, So
that could be a stumbling block for Casey, and Casey's
had really a stumbling block of a season, to be honest.
They were very lucky to get out of Week twelve
with a win over the Colt Bengals Ravens.
Speaker 3 (22:42):
The night game not as exciting as we wait for
Burrow being official. Let's say Burrow becomes official. What do
you think this drops too?
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Four and a half?
Speaker 5 (22:50):
That's a good question the way that Casey Digne described
it again here in Vegas at the super Book.
Speaker 4 (22:55):
They first off, the look.
Speaker 5 (22:56):
Aheadline on this game last week was eleven and a
half and it went to ten and a half. That
was that was all they did, eleven and a half,
ten and a half, and they probably got down to
ten and a half based on people assuming that Burrow
was going to come back to play on Thursday night.
They reopened on Sunday at seven and a half, went
to seven, then to six and a half, seven, six
and a half. There's been a little battle over the
first couple of days of the week between seven and
(23:18):
six and a half on this game, and Degnan's expectation
is that Burrow is going to play. He said, right now,
more on the Bengals is coming in on the spread.
But he noted some of that was the look aheadline
from last week where you could get double digits if
you did that, well, very good on you. You're getting
the very best of the number. And he said he
thinks there's something. He knows there's something from Sunday when
the line was still at seven and a half. There's
(23:39):
really nothing too significant on Cincinnati at seven or six
and a half, but there was something there because it
got the super Book and others to move down to
seven and even six and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
So they maybe seven play.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Yeah, so maybe the seven bakes in Burrow already.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
I feel like it does. I don't think it gets
down to four and a half.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
I mean, maybe go to six possibly, regardless what Dagnan said,
We're still going to need the Bengals, and more likely
they're going to need the Bengals to win out right.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
So the Ravens money line parlays, and if.
Speaker 5 (24:09):
This number stays in that six, six and a half
seven range, the teasers come into play, Jason, So he said,
with Ravens money line parlays and teasers, and especially if
both the early favorites win, even if they don't cover,
if Kansas City wins, if Detroit wins, he said, they'll
be certainly looking for the Bengals to win out right
in what they think is going to be the return
(24:29):
of Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Yeah, so my other read and I haven't really seen
people talk about this yet because it's you know, Burrow
waiting Thanksgiving all that stuff. But next week the Ravens
host the Steelers. That is kind of for the division.
It is a massive, enormous game.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
It's easy. I know the Bengals are in.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
The division in their rivalry game, but they stink they're
not going to the playoffs, They're I don't know how
many guys in the Ravens locker room are like, oh, Bengals, Yeah,
we got to focus on the worst defense in the league.
Or are they already thinking about hosting Pittsburgh next week
in a game where they can take over first place.
I just I know that that doesn't really mean much,
But psychologically, I'm of the belief that people do get
(25:08):
caught looking ahead.
Speaker 5 (25:09):
If you will, oh, I think I think they do
get caught looking ahead. And this is a situation where
you're also working on a short week and looking and
potentially looking ahead. You don't have as much time to
get ready for the Bengals. You know, Burdle comes back
if you know, if he's healthy, and you know at
least you know, close to.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
One hundred percent. We all know he's a fantastic quarterback.
Speaker 5 (25:28):
So it could be a you know, sort of a
sort of a you could I could see why people
would think this is kind of a trap spot potentially
for the Ravens to look ahead spot where they know
they've got this massive game against the Steelers. But that's
not going to keep the public off Baltimore, especially at
the moneyline parleys. They're going to be riding the Ravens
in that five game winning streak, and and if they
I mean, I know, I got a twenty five to
(25:48):
one Ravens super Bowl ticket when they when.
Speaker 4 (25:50):
They were falling a part early in the season. So
and I wasn't alone. It's not like it was a
sharp play or anything.
Speaker 5 (25:56):
I'm sure a lot of people saw some numbers that
were kind of attractive and thought, gosh, if Lamar Jackson
could just come back and play reasonably well. And now
we've got a five game win streak and they're right on.
You know, they've got Pittsburgh right where they want them basically,
So I kind of hope they're dialed in. But I
really just hope we see a really good game. That
would be nice too.
Speaker 3 (26:14):
Eagles are seven point favorites against the Bears that I'm
sure some people thought that was a big number initially.
Bears are eight and three little smoking mirrors with the
turnovers and the comebacks. I want to take the Eagles here,
but seven, I mean, Philly's had some problems against the
spread this season.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
I don't I know, there is probably a stay away
from me.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
I don't think the Bears are great, but I can
see them like scratching and clawing and losing twenty four to.
Speaker 4 (26:40):
Twenty or something.
Speaker 5 (26:42):
Sure, I think I could see a game unfolding like that,
especially with what we've seen from the Eagles over the
past few weeks. I mean, they did, look, to their credit,
they beat the Bears and Allions, two of the better
teams in the NFC, and two teams that are also
like the Eagles high up in the Super Bowl odds.
But in those two games combined twenty six points, and
then they get a big old lead against Dallas and
(27:03):
let Dallas come back and win that game. I mean,
obviously Dallas should get some credit there, but still the
Eagles should have won that game. That should not have
happened to a defending Super Bowl champion with the talent
that team has.
Speaker 4 (27:15):
So I would be super wary of the Eagles.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
And what Casey Degnet again here in talent super said,
this number has been steady at seven, but the Eagles
are minus seven even money, which tells you then this
could be headed.
Speaker 4 (27:29):
Towards six and a half and a half exactly.
Speaker 5 (27:32):
So if you want to get the Bears plus seven
you're paying minus won sixteen juice, so you got to
pay a little bit of a premium there to get
seven points with the Bears. It tells you also that
this is probably not going to seven and a half.
And what Casey said about the game, he said early,
not a whole lot of action yet. I think more people,
if they are focused right now, they're looking at those
three Thanksgiving Day games. But this is going to get
bet really well. And by the way, backing up really quickly,
(27:54):
I've heard a couple of different odds makers and I
don't mean to throw this back to the Cowboys Chiefs,
but they think that might be the most bet game
of the regular season.
Speaker 4 (28:02):
Wow.
Speaker 5 (28:02):
They are expecting big handle on that. And I've heard
that from from Tom Gable, who works out of Borgada
Sports it's the bet MGM property in New Jersey, and
also from John Murray, who runs the super book here
in Las Vegas. They both expect really high handle for
that Chiefs Cowboys game. And I mean to go backwards there,
but what Casey said is early in the week on
(28:22):
Bears Eagles, more Bears action, but not too much in
the pot right now, nothing really too significant. But he
noted with the Eagles lay in seven, it's kind of
a similar situation as it is with the Ravens. You
got to stay a total standalone game. Granted it's not
in prime time, but it's a standalone game. He said.
Our best case is going to be the Bears winning
(28:43):
this outright because all the money line parlays and the teasers,
the six point teasers and so forth are going to
run to Philadelphia on Friday.
Speaker 1 (28:51):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 3 (29:03):
I did just have to look up Ben Johnson his
last meeting against the Eagles. It was the season opener
in twenty twenty two and the Lions scored thirty five
on the Eagles defense. That was a good Eagles team. Obviously,
not that has good of a defense. But I firmly
believe Ben Jonson'll be able to move the ball here
with Kleb running, Yeah, it'd be an interesting game. I'm
(29:25):
not taking the Bears or anything, but we'll see Sunday.
Not a lot of great games. I do want to
circle Niners, Browns that line is cratering. It looks like
the weather is going to be in the thirties with
sixty chances of snow, rain and wind.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Is that why this has gone down from was it
seven to four and a half?
Speaker 5 (29:45):
It's so there may have been some sevens out there
to open I'm double checking. It looks like most thoughts
were six and a half. The Superbook was definitely six
and a half here in Las Vegas. And look, I
think the weather is a little bit of a factor here.
The super Bowl has gotten as low as four and
a half, very briefly so, but there was and Casey
(30:07):
Degnant told me this. There was sharp money on the
Browns at plus six and a half on Monday, and
that got them down to five and a half, and
really just a few minutes after that they even went
to five, then then went back to five and a
half six and then a little spend a little bit
of time a cup of coffee on Tuesday at four
and a half, but then pretty quickly went to five
and then five and a half again.
Speaker 4 (30:27):
I would say that this is not getting back to six.
Speaker 5 (30:30):
And I think to your point, the weather is partially
a factor, but there has definitely been some sharp money
on the Browns when that was at six and a half,
which is the high points so far this week.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
So I'm sure everybody remembers the last time brock perty
was in Cleveland the Niners. I'm pretty sure that was
the game Trent Williams VISs. Niners were undefeated and they
could do nothing. Now here's the real thing. Who is
the quarterback of the Browns?
Speaker 2 (30:52):
I could give them?
Speaker 3 (30:53):
Probably I would not have guessed this in fifteen guesses
somebody named Philip Walker. I don't even know who that is.
But the box scores joing Philip Walker through two picks
for the Browns. They still won, exactly because Party was
terrible and could they couldn't keep him up right?
Speaker 2 (31:06):
And I just wonder, can Miles Garrett wreck this game?
Speaker 3 (31:10):
I mean, he's on pace to break the all time
sack record and the Browns defense at home does not
give up the run. Christian McCaffrey last time in Cleveland
eleven carries forty three yards. I'm worried about the Niners here.
Speaker 4 (31:21):
I would be worried about the Niners in this spot.
The Niners.
Speaker 5 (31:24):
You know, I don't feel like like I said, I
feel like my Denver Broncos or smoking Mirs. I don't
think the Niners are necessarily smoking mirs, but just the
injury situation and Perty seems to be having some trouble
with his throws.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
He certainly didn't look.
Speaker 5 (31:37):
Good for a good chunk of Monday night, even though
in week twelve, even though the forty nine ers got there,
I'd be worried about it, especially if it's if it's
bad weather and that defense. If I recall correctly, the
Browns had a great We're talking about the Raiders here,
who are really bad. Like I said, I wouldn't bet
the Raiders with your bunny, but they had ten sacks
in that game. Ten sacks, I mean, that's just like
(32:01):
mind blowing, and Garrett had three of them.
Speaker 4 (32:02):
To your point about the season he's having, I.
Speaker 5 (32:05):
Would not be too enthused to take the Niners this week.
I just I feel like that there's probably a stay
away game, even if it even if it's somehow got
back on to four and a half, or they say
the weather it's just going to be even more terrible
than they expect it and it gets lower. I just
feel like that's a game I wouldn't want to mess
with unless you could still get six and a half
with that Browns defense in terrible weather, Yeah, then.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
You got to smash it. But four and a half
is low because again we're talking. We didn't mention shud
Or Sanders, and I know the Niners defense ain't great,
but I'll tell you this, Robert Sala against a rookie
quarterback making is second start. I'm going to take Sala
nine times out of ten in that matchup. Let's see,
is there anything else Sunday that jumps out at you?
Speaker 5 (32:46):
Well, a couple of other things that the Casey Degnant
bounced off me I can run through the Roe.
Speaker 2 (32:50):
Yeah, yeah, let's hear it.
Speaker 5 (32:51):
So Colts Texans, that's a Texans. I think it's Texans
at Colts. That went from Colts three and a half
to four and a half. And Casey Degnant said there
was some respected action on three and a half on
Sunday minus three and a half on the Colts. But
obviously the Texans with that defense, they're going to be
They're going to be live.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
And you know, we don't know the whole CJ.
Speaker 5 (33:12):
Stroud situation CD Stroud situation yet, but that's one where
they saw a sharp respective play on Indianapolis early Bill Steelers.
That's just going to be a really well bet game.
And what Casey David said about he said early tickets
are about even slightly more money on the Bills. But
he noted that by the time we get to kickoff Sunday,
he said, I'll be surprised if we don't need the Steelers.
(33:33):
They'll probably want the Steelers outright, because the Bills are
probably going to be in the money line parlays and such.
But certainly he thinks they're going to want the Steelers
to cover come Sunday. That's a really good one. And
then he just noted that because of the spreads in
the Sunday and Monday night games being in that touchdown range,
the Broncos at the Commanders, Broncos laying a touchdown ish
and then the Giants at the Patriots. He's like, listen,
(33:56):
if the favorites have a good day on Sunday, and
really even if they start with the Thursday and Friday games,
but if the favorites have a good day on Sunday,
gonna they're really gonna need either the Commanders or the
Giants to jump up and pulling out right up set
on Sunday night or Monday night to knock out the
parlays and the teasers.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Good luck with that. It's funny. I just noticed that
you're right.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
So you know, I had a losing week last week,
but to bounce back, I always look for layups, you know,
like a jump shooter misses like eight in a row.
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Hey, man, k's got to get a layup. Just see
the ball go through the hoop.
Speaker 4 (34:27):
Yep, exactly.
Speaker 2 (34:28):
You're right.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
That Sunday night Broncos teased down to win by at
win by one, and then Patriots teased down to win
by you know, one and a half, and that seems
like an easy one. I will say, I know people
don't like big numbers, but Seattle and Sam Donald against
the Vikings in what is potentially a revenge spot for
Sam Donald, that team, that Seattle team loves Darnald. Remember
(34:51):
he had the four picks against the ramsay all defended him.
And Seattle has really taken some teams behind the woodshed
at home this year. Saints Arizona. I wouldn't be shocked
if they just said, hey, Sam, put it on him.
We're still throwing up thirty to nothing. You know that
kind of deal, because it doesn't sound like McCarthy's going
to go right, even though he's terrible.
Speaker 5 (35:09):
Yeah, I mean if he goes or not, I'm not
sure it necessarily matters.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
And this number is to shot up.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
This is what are you seeing now.
Speaker 5 (35:17):
The super book opened eight on Sunday evening, went to
eight and a half within like half an hour very
early Monday, to nine, and then nine and a half
ten and a half, So they were at ten and
a half by basically Monday afternoon Eastern time, late Monday
morning here in the best time zone. So the betters
are certainly riding Seattle and expecting them to show well.
(35:39):
And like you said, it's a tremendous spot for Darnold.
I'm sure he wants to show.
Speaker 4 (35:43):
That you could have paid me the wrong decision. Yeah,
you could have paid him.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
That battle did not cover though against Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
So I wonder if some people back off and it's
actually an opportunity to maybe lay it with another double digits.
I think you write in your column that you for
is inside of the you don't ever a bet double digits? Well,
what about rams at Panthers? I mean, did you see
the mass unit. The Panthers were on Monday Night football.
Now they got a short.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
Week going home.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
I think MCVII is like something like, you know, ninety
seven and four against the spread in the UH in
the one pm window. He just his teams travel so
well to the East coast. The Panthers have so many injuries.
Listen if j C warn kick O, if McMillan is
really banged up, I think two guys on the offensive line.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
They're so beat up. How do they stop the Rams?
Speaker 1 (36:31):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (36:31):
How does anybody stop the Rams? At this point, Matt
Stafford's having a great season. Rams are now the favorite
in Super Bowl odds. I believe Stafford is a favorite
in MVP odds. They're just having a tremendous year. And
every time they're anywhere near the end zone of devont
Adams is catching touchdown.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
So that's that's a tough call.
Speaker 5 (36:49):
I'm with you on how well that team can travel
and go on the road and win games and so forth.
But if you had me say which double digit favorite
anim I gonna take in Week thirteen, I'd probably go
with the you know, ten and a half, It looks
like the Rams for ten and a half as well,
I'd probably go with Seattle at home.
Speaker 4 (37:09):
That offense, when it clicks.
Speaker 5 (37:10):
It's really really good, and I would feel a little
more comfortable with that. I think the Rams will win,
of course, but if I've got a late ten and
a half with either the Rams or the Seahawks, I'll
take the Seahawks at home and let the Rams be.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
We could wrap up with this one.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
Is the Dolphins minus six against the Saints the biggest
trap on the board.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
I mean, the Miami Dolphins are six point favorites.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
Patrick, you say that out loud, like what this team
was supposed to fire their coach like four weeks ago,
exactly exactly.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
And not only that, this was a you know, last
week on the look aheadline at the super Book, it was.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Five Miami and then went down to four and a half.
Speaker 5 (37:47):
But then they came back on Sunday reopened it five
and a half and the first move was up to six.
I for me, that would be a total stayaway game
because I just feel like there's something off there. Miami
just doesn't have the consistency to say, Okay, if I
lay the six, is Minami going to win by seven?
I mean this you feel like some of these teams
(38:07):
against the you know, against the Saints, should be able
to you know, pick their score basically. But the Saints
are big competitive in some games and managed to cover
in some games and won a couple of games people
didn't expect him to win.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
So I would just be leaving this alone.
Speaker 5 (38:21):
It feels trappy, even though unless, like you said, perhaps
for Survivor, where all you got to do is win
the game, don't have to cover the number, or if
you teases down or whatever. But I would I would
consider Miami for Survivor if you don't have better options,
But I'm not sure I would lay the six.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
Okay, all right?
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Patrick Everson, he's at Vegas Insider, Fox sports dot com.
I mean, he's got amazing content, Patrick. I have a
wonderful Thanksgiving man, keep up the great work.
Speaker 4 (38:47):
Absolutely.
Speaker 5 (38:47):
I appreciate you having me on and you and your
family have a great Thanksgiving as well.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
Good luck,
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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